MLB DFS: DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slate Strategy Notes & Live Show Link – Thursday 8/17/23

Thursday MLB DFS action brings just four games to bear on both FanDuel and DraftKings tonight, with the slate potentially looking even more limited if we get unlucky with the weather in the Cleveland area. By all accounts, the game between the Tigers and Guardians, which looks appealing for a few plays otherwise, is severely threatened by a night with rain and will almost certainly face a long delay if not a postponement, plan accordingly and keep an eye on the news. The balance of the slate includes a game in St. Louis that is carrying a 10.5-run total in Vegas, two full runs higher than each of the other three games. Jose Quintana vs Adam Wainwright will have that impact on a run line, both the Mets and Cardinals look strong for MLB DFS purposes but they are surely going to be extremely popular. The slate demands a broad spread of lineups covering many possibilities, with plenty of room for creativity and flexibility of constructions, particularly if things go sideways and we end up with only three games.

Don’t miss our Suggested Stacks feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.

Join us at 4:15 ET for a rundown on today’s slate.

Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.

MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Overview – 8/17/23

Detroit Tigers (-131/4.57) @ Cleveland Guardians (+121/4.03)

This game comes with quality but also major concerns about the weather, a postponement seems likely unless things change as the afternoon moves along. The game has appeal if it plays, even with a delayed start of multiple hours there is enough quality on a small slate that it would be worth drawing shares both on the mound and at the plate. The hometown Guardians have Xzavion Curry on the mound for $5,300/$6,900 as a piece of value on both sites on an extremely short slate. Curry has one of the better matchups in baseball against the Tigers but he has been far from reliable on the mound. The righty has a 16.1% strikeout rate with a 6.7% walk rate, a solid-looking 3.39 ERA but a 5.30 xFIP, and a 9.1% barrel rate. The barrels have not burnt the starter too badly to this point, Curry has allowed just a 2.81% home run rate on 21.2 degrees of launch angle on average and a too-high 46.6% hard-hit rate, he has gotten lucky to keep long balls in check as well as he has over 69 innings and five starts. The Tigers have a 24th-ranked 95 WRC+ collectively across the active roster against right-handed pitching this season, if we could lock-in dry innings Curry would be a value play with an interesting ceiling, but he would not be safe in any way. Lefty Akil Baddoo has a good toolset for MLB DFS purposes with mid-range power and speed but he is a very inconsistent contributor when he gets his chances. Baddoo has a .222/.315/.360 triple-slash with seven home runs and seven stolen bases on the board this season with just a 5.5% barrel rate and 35.2% hard hits. The outfielder is very cheap and he hits from the left side of the plate, in 461 opportunities two years ago he went 13/18 and created runs eight percent better than average, if that player shows up for a night at $2,900/$2,400 he will provide good value. Riley Greene is the best hitter on the Tigers, the lefty is slashing .309/.368/.491 with a .182 ISO with 11 home runs and six stolen bases over his 356 plate appearances after missing a bit of time with an injury. Greene has a solid 12.3% barrel rate with a 48.7% hard-hit rate, he strikes out a bit at 27.2% and walks at just an OK 8.4% but he has been good at getting on base and ties the team’s other quality lefty hitter for the lead in run creation this year. Greene is cheap for his talent in this matchup at $4,600/$2,900, he is an absolute priority in Tigers stacks and can be deployed as an interesting outfield one-off at a discount. Matt Vierling is slashing .270/.324/.386 with a 99 WRC+ in 373 opportunities, his numbers are a bit better in same-handed matchups and he is cheap in an excellent spot in the batting order if nothing else. Vierling makes minimal contact with just a 3.6% barrel rate, but he does put the ball in play regularly with just 18.5% strikeouts. Spencer Torkelson is better than his reputation, as we have been featuring throughout the season. The second-year first baseman has not been great at the plate this season, as should be clear in his .230/.309/.431 triple-slash, but he has made great strides at the plate in terms of contact, power, and run creation. Torkelson has a terrific 14.3% barrel rate and a 52% hard-hit rate this season, way up from 8.4% and 41.4% in 404 plate appearances as a rookie last season. The slugger has mashed 21 home runs and has an outside shot at 30 if the last seven weeks of the season break well for him. Torkelson is a $4,200/$2,900 bargain with a .201 ISO and he has been four percent better than average for the season creating runs, up from 24% below average in his rookie year. Kerry Carpenter is the team’s other excellent left-handed bat, he offers true power and a decent-to-good hit tool and is inexpensive. Carpenter is our overall home run pick of the day, he has 16 long balls in only 285 plate appearances this season with an 11.1% barrel rate and 42.9% hard-hit rate and he is tied with Greene for the run-creation lead, in a moderately sized sample. Carpenter hit six home runs in 113 plate appearances last year and showed steady power with a .233 ISO in the small sample, he is a good option and the second-highest priority in the lineup behind Greene but ahead of Torkelson in the matchup. Miguel Cabrera is slashing .255/.328/.342 but has just a .087 ISO and two home runs in his 259 plate appearances. Cabrera has been 10% below average in creating runs for the season, he has a 19.3% strikeout rate and puts the ball in play fairly effectively and he is very cheap at $2,100 at first base on both sites on an extremely small slate. Zach McKinstry has seven homers and 12 stolen bases but has been 15% below average for run creation on the season. The lefty is inexpensive at $3,500/$2,400, and he has eligibility at third base and shortstop on DraftKings while fitting into third base, second base, and the outfield on the blue site, adding needed flexibility to the cheap Tigers lineup. Isan Diaz and Eric Haase round out the projected Tigers lineup, Diaz has made just 26 plate appearances in the Show this season and 526 in his career. The 27-year-old is a lifetime .177/.267/.274 hitter with nine home runs and a stolen base to go with his .097 ISO. Haase is slashing .202/.244/.285 with a 28% strikeout rate and only four home runs with a .084 ISO, he has been mostly inept at the plate this season and is a mix-in at best on a limited night.

The Guardians will draw lefty Tarik Skubal who is very cheap in a matchup against an underwhelming lineup. Skubal leads our pitching pool against a Cleveland team that ranks 29th out of 30 with a 64 WRC+ collectively for the active roster against lefties this season. The Guardians have a .104 ISO in the split, the worst in baseball, but they are somewhat good at keeping strikeouts down with just an 18.8% in the split, which ties the Diamondbacks for second-best behind the Astros’ elite 17.4%. Cleveland has a similar sample size to both of those teams, they rank 13th with 977 collective plate appearances against southpaws, so numbers are fairly realistic representations of their skills in the split. Meanwhile, Skubal checks in as a potentially dominant lefty who has a 27.7% strikeout rate with just a 4.6% walk rate in his small sample of 32.1 innings over seven starts since his return from a long injury absence. Skubal has allowed just a 4.6% barrel rate with a 0.77% home run mark so far, which should play well against the Guardians’ total lack of power in the split. The lefty has a 4.18 ERA but a 2.91 xFIP with a 12% swinging-strike rate so far in his return, and he worked 5.1 innings in each of his last two starts, meaning he is essentially fully stretched out. If this game plays with more limited weather concerns or if they late-start and Skubal is not threatened by a delay, he looks like a terrific option tonight. Of course, with only eight teams on deck, the Guardians are in play as well, but they are in a very bad spot for production. Steven Kwan has a .272/.340/.380 triple-slash and a league-average 100 WRC+ for the season. Kwan is getting on base at just a .340 clip, he briefly looked like he was going to make a run toward the .370 mark that would make him valuable, but he has backslid in recent weeks and is just a mix-in option for correlation when stacking Guardians, he is still good at putting the ball in play with just 10.8% strikeouts. Jose Ramirez is the team’s lone star in this lineup, he has 18 home runs with 18 stolen bases, a .204 ISO, a 126 WRC+, excellent marks of just 10.3% strikeouts and 10.5% walks, and one knockout this season. Andres Gimenez is a toolsy infielder with power and speed, he is up to 11 home runs and 20 stolen bases with a 96 WRC+ in what is shaping up a bit better than his season was looking for several months. Gimenez strikes out at just a 17.9% pace, the third-best mark in the projected lineup. For $4,200/$2,900 Gimenez is an important piece of Guardians stacks but he can also probably be utilized as a low-owned one-off option at second base for discounted pricing. The matchup is not good, he will probably get rained on, and he has been mostly bad this season, but with limited popularity he has a good ceiling for MLB DFS purposes. Ramon Laureano has six home runs and nine stolen bases this season with a low-end triple-slash that looks like his previous seasons, he is a mix-in outfielder for a cheap price. Oscar Gonzalez has a 6.1% barrel rate and 36.4% hard hits in his 133 plate appearances and he has managed just one home run and a .103 ISO. Gonzalez did hit 11 homers in 382 chances while creating runs 22% better than average last year, so he has a bit of potential for a cheap price and is probably more worthwhile than Laureano overall. Brayan Rocchio fits in at third base or shortstop for $2,500 on DraftKings and is a discounted shortstop at $2,200 on FanDuel. Rocchio is slashing .288/.309/.365 with zero home runs and zero stolen bases in his first 55 plate appearances. The 22-year-old has a highly regarded, but potentially underdeveloped, hit tool with limited power and speed potential, the Guardians may have another Kwan on their hands. Gabriel Arias is the opposite, he has massive power but rarely puts the bat on the ball. Arias is striking out at a 33.6% clip with a 10.9% walk rate, he has a 7.4% barrel rate and 43.4% hard hits with seven home runs in 220 plate appearances but a .199/.286/.342 triple-slash from the right side. Arias also offers multi-position eligibility, he is a first baseman or shortstop on DraftKings and adds third base to that mix on FanDuel for $2,100 on either site. Arias is a more favorable MLB DFS option than Rocchio given the power potential and cheap flexibility. Myles Straw is a defense and speed player who is rarely involved in the offense, he has a .306 on-base percentage and a 71 WRC+. Cam Gallagher has made 127 plate appearances and has a -13 WRC+ with a .132/.165/.174 triple-slash and zero home runs or stolen bases, the catcher is as far from a good option as one could get and would only be a body in a lineup for $2,000/$2,100 at catcher.

Play: Tarik Skubal, Xzavion Curry, Tigers bats/stacks, Guardians bats/stacks in smaller short-slate shares

Update Notes:

New York Mets (-129/5.62) @ St. Louis Cardinals (+119/5.00)

The game with a total two runs higher than any other in Vegas sees home starter Adam Wainwright continue to play out the string despite showing no lingering acumen for pitching at the Major League level after a long terrific career. Wainwright has made 15 awful starts this season, he has an 8.78 ERA with a 5.76 xFIP and an 11.8% strikeout rate. The righty has a 5.3% swinging-strike rate and has allowed 11.7% barrels with a 4.23% home run rate in a sad overall performance to end his career. It is virtually impossible to expect success from the starter tonight, even on a tiny slate he is not a good option at $5,000/$6,700. New York bats are pulling in a slate-leading 5.62-run implied total, they are sure to be highly popular on the short slate but they are well worth including in a wide variety of combinations. For just $4,400/$3,000, outfield Brandon Nimmo will almost certainly be one of the top-five most highly-owned players on the slate. Nimmo has 17 home runs and a .177 ISO with a 126 WRC+ and a .362 on-base percentage, he is a strong option in the leadoff role and he is simply too cheap for a player who correlates as well as he does with the team’s stars while also providing reliable individual upside. Nimmo has a 47% hard-hit rate to support his individual contributions and displayed power, he leads directly into excellent options in Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso on the strong top side of the New York lineup. Lindor is a star shortstop with 22 home runs and 20 stolen bases who has created runs 19% better than average with a .215 ISO this season. Alonso has 36 home runs and a .300 ISO on 14.9% barrels and 40.8% hard hits for just $5,300/$3,700 at first base, he is too cheap particularly in this matchup with only four games on the board. Jeff McNeil is an odd fit as a cleanup hitter, he is a slap-hitting utility player who relies on base hits and getting driven in by teammates to provide value. McNeil has a .082 ISO and a 93 WRC+ with 1.3% barrels and 28.6% hard hits, he is here to re-set the table for power that comes in the bottom of the lineup with Francisco Alvarez and Daniel Vogelbach. Alvarez is a star of a rookie catcher for just $4,100/$2,800, he has 21 home runs in 317 plate appearances and a 109 WRC+ in an unexpected early arrival in the Show. Vogelbach is a veteran lefty power hitter who has nine home runs and a .154 ISO on just seven percent barrels, but 48.4% hard hits this season. For just $2,800/$2,400 he is an option at first base but he loses a lot of appeal on DraftKings as a positional block to Pete Alonso. Vogelbach should be rostered, he will be low-owned on the site because of that positional share and there is sneaky potential in a highly-exposed stack, but Alonso is by far the more likely contributor. DJ Stewart is a lefty late in the lineup for $2,400/$2,200 in the outfield, he has four home runs in just 57 plate appearances this season and hit 12 in 318 opportunities two years ago, he has a 3.60 in the home run model today. Rafael Ortega has made 50 plate appearances this year and has a 90 WRC+, he had a 96 with seven home runs in 371 tries last year. Jonathan Arauz has two home runs and a 60 WRC+ over his 34 plate appearances this season, he has produced minor power with one homer in 41 tries last year and three in 75 chances in 2021 but he is a low-end mixer at best.

The Cardinals have almost as good a matchup on their side with Jose Quintana on the bump for New York. St. Louis checks in with a 5.00-run implied total and a better spot-for-spot lineup in this one. Quintana costs $6,700/$8,300, he has a 16.3% strikeout rate with an 8.1% walk rate and just 8.5% swinging strikes over his five starts and 29.2 innings. The southpaw has yet to allow a home run and has limited barrels to just 3.2% in the tiny sample and he has worked to a 3.03 ERA but a 5.03 xFIP. Overall, Quintana has been pitching well enough to be moderately in play on the short slate, he projects second to last on the eight-man board but is far more of an option than his opponent, he has not pitched poorly but he is targetable with St. Louis bats at the same time. Tommy Edman leads off for the Cardinals with a 103 WRC+, 11 home runs, and 15 stolen bases, he is a sturdy option in any spot in the lineup and fills shortstop for $4,000 and adds second base and outfield eligibility for $2,900 on FanDuel, where he becomes a very dynamic value play if he hits ahead of the Cardinals’ stars. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado man the infield corners, the first baseman has a 128 WRC+ and Arenado checks in at 127, and they have both been rocks in the lineup for most of the season with 19 and 25 home runs respectively. Willson Contreras is a good option at catcher in the heart of the lineup and one of the better positional plays of the day. The backstop is slashing .261/.357/.446 with a .185 ISO and 13 home runs, his mark for run creation sits 24% above average in a good season and he is a $3,900/$2,700 bargain in this matchup. Tyler O’Neill costs $3,600/$2,500 in the outfield, the right-handed slugger has a 6.45 in our home run model and hit 34 dingers while stealing 15 bases in 2021. Luken Baker has power potential in his bat but zero home runs in 28 plate appearances so far, he is very cheap at first base for $2,200/$2,000 but is a decision point on the DraftKings slate. Jordan Walker has hit 11 home runs and stolen six bases, he has a 107 WRC+ in 309 opportunities as an OK but somewhat disappointing rookie performer. For MLB DFS purposes, at $3,000/$2,600, there is plenty of talent at a discount in Walker. Taylor Motter is a low-end option with a 36 WRC+ in 66 plate appearances, Jose Fermin slots in with a 29 over his 17 chances so far, he is not a highly-regarded prospect.

Play: Mets bats/stacks, Cardinals bats/stacks, Jose Quintana value darts

Update Notes: 

Arizona Diamondbacks (-105/4.31) @ San Diego Padres (-103/4.28)

Lefty Rich Hill was an odd acquisition at the trade deadline, the capable lefty was not going to be one to make a big dent in the Padres’ chances to make a run but he is still a moderately effective MLB pitcher on the right night. The ancient southpaw has a 19.8% strikeout rate and an 8.7% walk rate with a 5.17 ERA and 4.73 xFIP this season. Hill has put too many men on base with a 1.51 WHIP and he has allowed a 10.1% barrel rate with 89.3 mph of exit velocity and a 3.19% home run rate this season. For $6,400/$7,600 the path to success is thin against a Diamondbacks lineup that is very good at limiting strikeouts in the split. Arizona is below-average for run creation against lefties with a 97 collective WRC+ for the active roster and they have just a .153 ISO in the split in a surprising downturn, but the ability to limit strikeouts against a pitcher who has not been finding them as reliably as in years past is a bad combination for the pitcher, we favor the Arizona side of the coin, but Hill is at worst a mix-in value option and he is a somewhat essential part of the DraftKings slate if the game in Cleveland does not play. The Diamondbacks lineup opens with Ketel Marte at second base for $5,600/$3,400. Marte has 19 home runs and a 123 WRC+ with a .205 ISO and just a 15.9% strikeout rate this season, he is an excellent positional option on the short slate. Corbin Carroll checks in with 21 homers, 37 stolen bases, and a 129 WRC+ in a strong rookie campaign. The outfielder has been limited for power in recent weeks but is an excellent contributor with a lot of tools that fit DFS scoring perfectly. Carroll is pricey at $6,100/$3,800 and only two of his home runs have come against fellow lefties this season, he is slashing an effective .279/.339/.360 in the split but has a .081 ISO and just a 93 WRC+ and could potentially be categorized as overpriced in this matchup. Tommy Pham is a good right-handed veteran with a bit of power and speed, he has created runs 20% better than average in a nice return to form this season with 11 home runs and 14 stolen bases. Pham costs just $4,000/$2,900 in the outfield and is a good value click in Diamondbacks stacks. Christian Walker is a very good first baseman who is rarely as popular as he should be. Walker has a 19.4% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate with 28 home runs and a .270 ISO while creating runs at a team-leading 35% better than average. Kyle Lewis slots into the projected lineup for just $2,500/$2,000 as a good outfield option, the former top prospect has been devastated by injuries in his brief tenure, he has tremendous tools with clear right-handed power at the plate but he has rarely been able to stay in a lineup for enough time to get a clear sample at this level. Buddy Kennedy checks in for $2,300/$2,000 at second or third base on DraftKings and third base on FanDuel, he has made 11 plate appearances this year and had 94 last year with a 71 WRC+, he is a cheap late-lineup mixer. Gabriel Moreno has a 39% hard-hit rate and 21.3% strikeout rate but a limited three home runs and .091 ISO in his 253 plate appearances. Nick Ahmed has hit two home runs and stolen five bases and has a 57 WRC+ in 178 opportunities. Alek Thomas is a limited moderate power and speed option, he has seven home runs and six steals with an 80 WRC+ in 260 opportunities but comes at just a $2,700/$2,300 price tag if he plays against a same-handed pitcher.

Righty Zac Gallen costs $11,000/$10,700 in a matchup against the top-heavy Padres lineup. Gallen has been mostly outstanding this season, he has a 3.24 ERA and a 3.45 xFIP with a 26.6% strikeout rate and just a 5.2% walk rate. Gallen typically works deep into games, he has thrown 155.2 innings in his 25 starts this season and has a strong shot at bonuses on both sites every time he takes the mound. The righty has limited power to just 2.42% home runs despite 8.6% barrels and a 44.3% hard-hit rate with 91.2 mph of exit velocity this season, he keeps the ball to a 13-degree average launch angle which is not spectacular in the Framber Valdez way of limiting home runs, but still has a diminishing impact on long balls. Gallen is very expensive on the short slate, but he is clearly one of the top pitching options simply on raw talent alone, he is a worthwhile play at least in shares around the field but an undercut is not a mistake if he gets extremely popular. Ha-Seong Kim has a 130 WRC+ with triple-position eligibility on FanDuel for just $3,200, he is a second baseman with a ton of value at $4,800 on the DraftKings slate. Kim has hit 15 home runs and stolen 27 bases in a career year and he is in one of the best spots in baseball for correlated scoring ahead of the team’s quartet of stars. Fernando Tatis Jr. has an 11.1% barrel rate and 50% hard hits with 19 home runs and a .203 ISO this season, he has created runs 18% better than average and, while he is pricey at $6,200/$4,000, he has a massive ceiling on the short slate. Juan Soto has a 12.8% barrel rate, 57.2% hard hits, a .408 on-base percentage, and a .235 ISO and leads the team at 149 WRC+, he is a bit less expensive than Tatis at $5,900/$3,700 and continues to be our favored option between the two. Manny Machado has hit 21 home runs and costs $5,400/$3,500 with a long track record at third base, Xander Bogaerts is also inexpensive at $4,700/$2,900, he is up to .272/.346/.400 with a 109 WRC+ after a monthlong downturn that saw him dip to around league-average contributions at the plate. Bogaerts is a star shortstop and one of the better positional options on the slate, but he is in a tough matchup against Gallen and the Padres have a limited 4.28-run implied total. Jake Cronenworth has eligibility at first and second base on both sites and he is cheap at $4,400/$2,800 but he has been inconsistent this season and sits five percent below average for run creation. Luis Campusano has power behind the plate, as does veteran backstop Gary Sanchez, both are playable options pending the confirmed Padres batting order. Ben Gamel and Trent Grisham are mix-in options with left-handed bats from late in the lineup, Gamel hit nine home runs in 423 plate appearances last season and eight in 400 opportunities in 2021, but Grisham is the better of the two, he has a dozen home runs and a matching stolen base total with a 97 WRC+ in 438 chances at the plate this year.

Play: Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks bats/stacks, Rich Hill value darts, Padres bats/stacks in smaller shares

Update Notes: 

Milwaukee Brewers (+128/3.96) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-139/4.64)

The final game of the slate sees the Brewers checked to just 3.96 implied runs against veteran righty Lance Lynn, who projects third on our short pitching board ahead of his opponent Corbin Burnes, who has also been wrestling with consistency and quality this season. Lynn has been good in his last two outings with the Dodgers, his first start was a bit messy with three home runs allowed to the lousy Athletics, but he salvaged the outing to some degree with seven strikeouts over seven innings. Lynn yielded a home run and four hits but just one run to 23 Padres hitters over six innings of six-strikeout two-walk ball the next time out, then he went five against the Rockies in Los Angeles, allowing an unearned run on four hits and a walk while striking out nine. Lynn has spiked upside strikeout performances a few times this season, peaking at 16 against the Mariners in late June, he is a strong option on this slate with a 27.4% strikeout rate and 3.93 xFIP over 137.2 innings and 24 starts this season, but the 5.88 ERA and 5.29% home run rate on 11.2% barrels and 40.5% hard hits should be clear warning signs that he is not necessarily a lock on the mound. On the other side, Burnes has a 3.60 ERA and 3.99 xFIP with a 24.7% strikeout rate on the season, all of which are changed for the negative year over year. Strikeouts have dipped by about six points, swinging strikes are down by four, and his ERA and xFIP are both well up, his xFIP is more than a run higher than last year’s mark. Burnes looked like he was rounding into form through July with a 3.17 xFIP and 32% strikeout rate for the month, but his most recent outings saw him revert to his scuffling form with just five strikeouts in each of his last three games and six the time before that. He allowed five earned runs on a home run with three walks and eight hits in just 5.2 innings against the lousy White Sox in a big disappointment for MLB DFS his last time out. Burnes is a must-play option with a clear ceiling on this slate, he is just expensive and difficult to trust in full in a terrible matchup against the Dodgers, a high-scoring low-strikeout group.

Milwaukee is carrying the lowest run total on the board in Vegas but they are not unplayable, particularly given Lynn’s ongoing issues with power and premium contact this season. Christian Yelich leads off with quality and a 126 WRC+ on the season. Over 512 plate appearances, the star outfielder has a .287/.373/.458 triple-slash with a .171 ISO, 16 homers, 25 stolen bases, and a premium 52% hard-hit rate. William Contreras has hit 12 home runs while slashing .273/.346/.443 with a 114 WRC+ from a good spot in the lineup for his position. Carlos Santana is a $4,000/$2,900 option at first base, the switch-hitter has 16 home runs and a .178 ISO in 461 middling plate appearances over which he has created runs 10% behind the curve. Sal Frelick has been a good contributor over 88 plate appearances, he has a 120 WRC+ with three homers and two stolen bases but he is a $4,300/$3,500 option with a price on FanDuel which seems a bit aggressive. Willy Adames has power but little else at the plate, the shortstop has hit 18 home runs but sits 19% below average for run creation in a lousy season. Adames has an 8.32 in our home run model and any-given-slate potential with a clear upside for a long ball against Lynn’s struggles. Mark Canha is an effective veteran hitter with a league-average WRC+ over 356 plate appearances, Andruw Monasterio is at a 114 WRC+ in his first 182 opportunities in the Show, and Brice Turang has hit six home runs and stolen 14 bases in his rookie campaign but has a 68 WRC+ overall in 319 chances. Tyrone Taylor has sneaky cheap power late in the lineup in the outfield, he has four home runs and six steals in 122 chances this year but hit 17 in 405 tries last year and 12 in 271 the year before. The Brewers are our sixth-ranked stack by projections but they have value in the matchup and may go under-owned with a low run total and popularity expected for Lynn. The Dodgers’ everyday lineup opens with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, a pair of outstanding superstars who truly need no introduction. Betts fills three positions on FanDuel and two on DraftKings and is one of the better buys in MLB DFS on a nightly basis. Freeman is a leading first baseman and one of the best overall players on this slate with a 169 WRC+ on the season. Will Smith is an excellent catcher, the position is actually surprisingly deep on the short slate, Smith has a 15.7% strikeout rate and 12.8% walk rate, he puts the ball in play regularly and has 15 home runs and a 132 WRC+ this season. Max Muncy has hit 28 home runs and has a .275 ISO and a 7.31 in our home run model, Burnes is not easy to homer against, even in his up-and-down season he has allowed just a 2.71% home run rate and 5.5% barrels. JD Martinez has a 6.77 in the home run model with massive right-handed power, he has 25 home runs and a .296 ISO this season. David PeraltaJason Heyward, and James Outman are three easily playable left-handed outfielders with a range of skills from contact through power arriving at speed and run creation. All three can be deployed in any combination with the top five hitters in the lineup, they add a dynamic cheap set of skills to the deep Dodgers batting order. Amed Rosario is another toolsy player projected to hit late in the batting order, for just $4,400/$2,800 he is a fine option at second base or shortstop on DraftKings and he fills shortstop on FanDuel effectively for the inexpensive price. Rosario has six home runs and 10 steals with just an 87 WRC+ this season, but he has the requisite skills for MLB DFS success and he will be a lower-owned player on a popular team.

Play: Dodgers bats/stacks, Lance Lynn, Corbin Burnes, Brewers bats/stacks

Update Notes: 

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