MLB DFS: DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slate Strategy Key Points & Live Show Link – Saturday 8/19/23

The Saturday MLB DFS main slate is split badly between the two sites, with 10 games on DraftKings but only seven on the FanDuel slate. Three of the West Coast games for Sunday were pushed to Saturday with what looks like the potential for historically bad flooding and a hurricane throughout much of the Southwest (if you are in that area, stay safe) the Marlins vs Dodgers, Diamondbacks vs Padres, and Rays vs Angels games will all be played as doubleheaders today, with all three of the second games on the DraftKings board. Those games have three or four slate-relevant pitching options to stretch out the slate for DraftKings gamers. The slate is fairly deep for pitching on FanDuel for just a seven-gamer, Mitch Keller and Tanner Bibee are both in premium matchups and project well, Sonny Gray is facing the Pirates on the other side of the Keller game and he also looks good in what could be a pitching duel, Framber Valdez and Logan Gilbert will be facing one another in another pitching-angled game, and any of Kodai Senga, Miles Mikolas, or Logan Webb could see success on the right night in difficult matchups. We are in key talking points mode for the weird Saturday slate.

Don’t miss our Suggested Stacks feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.

Join us at 4:20 ET for a rundown on today’s slate.

Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.

MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Notes – 8/19/23

Detroit Tigers (148/3.57) @ Cleveland Guardians (-162/4.53)

  • Guardians righty Tanner Bibee has a 23.5% strikeout rate with a 2.90 ERA but a 4.35 xFIP while limiting premium contact to 5.2% barrels and home runs to just 2.22% in 108.2 mostly excellent rookie innings over 19 starts, he ranks second overall on our pitching board in a strong matchup against the Tigers for $8,200/$9,800, he is a terrific value option on DraftKings and a strong single starter on FanDuel.
  • Matt Manning costs $6,500/$7,100 with a mid-board projection that looks playable against a bad Guardians lineup despite Manning’s 4.60 ERA and ugly 5.62 xFIP with a 16.3% strikeout rate in 58.2 innings. Cleveland’s active roster has a league average 100 WRC+ with a very strong 17.4% strikeout rate but just a .135 ISO against righties in 25th-ranked sample size of plate appearances, they are a weak lineup overall but Manning is only a value dart throw at best, he is not very good.
  • The Tigers are a limited option, they rank 17th of 20 teams by fantasy point projections but sit 11th for home run upside with a few key bats. Akil Baddoo is playable if he leads off, the lefty has a blend of pop and speed on the right night, key Tigers bats are Riley GreeneSpencer Torkelson, and Kerry Carpenter. Greene is the best hitter with a strong triple-slash, 11 home runs and a 136 WRC+, Torkleson has 21 home runs and a .200 ISO and is better than you think, and Carpenter has true lefty power with 16 homers in 293 plate appearances. Everyone else is a mix-in option in this lineup, including Matt VierlingJavier Baez, and Miguel Cabrera.
  • Cleveland ranks 19th out of 20 with a 19th-ranked home run upside but they are facing a bad starter and have a mid-level run total in Vegas. Key hitters for Cleveland include star third baseman Jose Ramirez who has 18 homers and 18 steals with a 125 WRC+ and no one else. Playable parts include Steven Kwan, who has a 102 WRC+ with a .343 on-base percentage in the leadoff spot, Andres Gimenez who has good mid-range power and speed with 11 homers and 20 stolen bases in a down season overall at the plate, and power mix-ins like Kole CalhounOscar GonzalezGabriel Arias, and catcher Bo Naylor.

Play: Tanner Bibee as a leading option, minor Manning value darts, minor Tigers hedge stacks

Update Notes:

Pittsburgh Pirates (+158/3.72) @ Minnesota Twins (-172/4.88)

  • This game features a strong pitching matchup with Sonny Gray ranking fourth out of 20 on the deep pitching slate and Mitch Keller outpacing him in the top spot overall on the pitching board today. Gray projects very well against a Pirates team that has a 24.4% strikeout rate and 100 WRC+ collectively against right-handed pitching this season in a 29th-ranked sample size with a number of small sample rookies toward the end of the batting order. Gray has a 24.7% strikeout rate with a 3.04 ERA and 3.61 xFIP and he has been excellent at limiting power this season with a 6.6% barrel rate and microscopic 0.88% home run rate in 136.1 innings and 24 starts. Keller is facing a Twins team that has an aggressive approach and a 28.2% strikeout rate overall for the projected batting order. The Twins’ active roster is at 28% strikeouts but they have a 112 WRC+ against righties this season. Keller has pitched to a 25.2% strikeout rate with a 4.27 ERA and 3.82 xFIP this season, he backslid as time has gone on but he has more than enough talent to find strikeouts if he can work clean innings against this Twins team for $8,600/$8,400 as a strong piece of value on both sites.
  • The Pirates lineup ranks poorly for projections and home run potential tonight with OK points-per-dollar value marks in the middle of the board. There are a few sneaky key hitters on the Pirates on the right night, including veterans Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen, but more specifically the team’s younger hitters. Jack Suwinski has a ton of power for $3,600/$2,900 with 21 homers and a .243 ISO, he has an 8.31 in tonight’s home run model. Ke’Bryan Hayes has a sturdy bat with a good contact profile and poor results for cheap pricing, he is worth shares in Pirates stacks, Endy Rodriguez is a rookie catcher with power potential and Liover Peguero remains inexpensive with second and third base eligibility despite five early home runs in 80 plate appearances.
  • The Twins lineup has a bit more depth and some significant power threats against Keller, they rank seventh by fantasy point projections and with a top points per dollar mark on FanDuel and a second-best ranking for value on DraftKings. Edouard Julien is cheap atop the lineup at $3,400/$2,800 at second base, he has power and a bit of speed with strong numbers over 263 rookie opportunities. Royce Lewis has been very good with a 145 WRC+ and a strong triple-slash over 113 plate appearances, he is cheap at third base with added shortstop eligibility on FanDuel. Max Kelper has 20 home runs and a .232 ISO, Carlos Correa is cheap and has 15 home runs and a 97 WRC+ with a .177 ISO, Jorge Polanco has eight home runs in just 207 plate appearances with a .194 ISO, Matt Wallner has a .286 ISO and nine homers in only 129 chances, and Joey Gallo lurks late in the lineup with 20 home runs in 306 tries and a .273 ISo with a 19.1% barrel rate and 55% hard hits, but also a ton of strikeouts and a lousy triple-slash.

Play: Mitch Keller, Sonny Gray, Twins bats for value-priced power potential

Update Notes:

Seattle Mariners (+140/3.40) @ Houston Astros (-152/4.18)

  • This is another game with outstanding pitching, Framber Valdez is excellent at checking opposing power with a 2.49% home run rate on 3.8 degrees of launch angle on the average, and he has pitched to a 3.31 ERA with a 3.29 xFIP and a 24.6% strikeout rate this season. The lefty projects highly on the tightly packed upper portion of the board for $10,200/$11,100 but several of the starters above him cost less on both sites. Valdez has potential for strikeout upside against the rolling Mariners, who he has checked to just 3.40 runs in Vegas. Logan Gilbert has a tough matchup against the Astros, who are favored with a 4.18-run implied team total. Gilbert has a terrific 4.6% walk rate and a 25% strikeout rate over 142 innings in 24 starts and carries a 3.80 ERA and 3.65 xFIP into action, he is a very good option even against Houston for $8,800/$9,100.
  • Seattle bats have been excellent of late but Valdez is a different type of pitcher who saps power almost completely in our projections, the Mariners land 12th out of 20 teams by collective fantasy point projections but the homer-happy squad is 20th out of 20 by home run potential with Valdez on the hill. Julio Rodriguez is a toolsy star who is a key part of any Mariners stack, he is up to 21 home runs and 32 stolen bases after another strong day at the plate but he costs $5,700/$4,100 in a tough spot. Eugenio SuarezTeoscar Hernandez, and Cal Raleigh lose a ton of potential against Valdez, assuming he is on form, they are all high-strikeout hitters who gain value from their prodigious home run pop. Ty France has a good hit tool but is in a down season overall slashing .253/.324/.384 with a 103 WRC+. The balance of the Mariners projected batting order is mix-in value in stacks in a bad spot.
  • The Astros have several fantastic hitters on any given slate, they rank ninth overall by projections and fifth by home run potential, given the 9.3% barrel rate and 3.33% home runs that Gilbert has allowed in his lone statistical hiccup. Jose Altuve is pricey at $6,300/$4,200 but worthwhile at the limited second base position, he has nine homers and 12 steals with a 165 WRC+ in just 233 plate appearances. Alex Bregman still has power from the right side, Yordan Alvarez has way more from the left side, they are both key bats in stacks of Astros and neither should be skipped very often, particularly if lefty star Kyle Tucker is out again tonight. Tucker has 24 home runs and 24 stolen bases and is the third priority bat with Altuve and Alvarez when stacking Astros. Yainer DiazJon Singleton, and Chas McCormick are all strong options to blend into Astros stacks in a mid-level opportunity.

Play: Framber Valdez, Logan Gilbert, Astros bats/stacks in mid-level shares

Update Notes:

New York Mets (-108/4.34) @ St. Louis Cardinals (+101/4.24)

  • For $6,600/$7,100, Cardinals soft-tossing righty Miles Mikolas projects OK on this slate. He lands in the middle of the 20-man slate and 8th overall on FanDuel with a matchup against a top-heavy Mets lineup. Mikolas has a 4.27 ERA and 4.64 xFIP with a 2.23% home run rate but just a 16.4% strikeout rate. He is an OK option overall and looks like a fair play for value as an SP2 on the DraftKings board where he is the highest projected starter under $8,000. Kodai Senga has a difficult matchup against the Cardinals but he shows potential with an upper-middle projection and a 28.4% strikeout rate on the season. Senga has a 3.30 ERA and 3.76 xFIP with an ugly 11.3% walk rate and he has been good at limiting power with a 2.10% home run rate and 5.8% barrels. Senga is pricey but should not be too popular, he is a good mix-in starter with a high ceiling on this slate.
  • The Mets lineup has a few important bats, namely Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor, two underpriced stars in the heart of the batting order. Lindor has 22 home runs and 20 steals with a run creation mark 19% ahead of the league-average and Alonso has blasted 37 home runs with a .302 ISO in 487 chances. Lindor costs $5,100/$3,700 and Alonso is at $5,300/$3,700. Brandon Nimmo is the next priority bat, he adds a strong correlated scoring option with the two stars and has individual ability with a 130 WRC+, a .366 on-base percentage, and 18 home runs. Francisco Alvarez has a 10.14 in our home run model with 21 home runs and a .240 ISO in 326 plate appearances, he is a strong option as a cheap catcher. The balance of the Mets lineup is comprised of inexpensive mix-in hitters, Daniel Vogelbach and DJ Stewart have a bit of lefty pop as value options.
  • The Cardinals lineup runs deep on most slates, they have been very limited overall this season and simply underperform their talents. In a bad spot against Senga they are not an overly high priority with just a 16th-ranked collective projection, limited points-per-dollar value, and a 10th-ranked home run upside. Key hitters for St. Louis include Tommy Edman who gets on base a bit and has power and speed ahead of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, the team’s stars at the corner infield spots. Willson Contreras is a good option at catcher when stacking this team, he is undepriced at $4,000/$2,800 for his talent and spot in the batting order, if backup Andrew Knizner plays instead he would have sneaky-good home run potential for cheap pricing. Alec Burleson is a middling option for a low salary, Tyler O’Neill has major home run potential in a limited season and comes cheap at $3,800/$2,700 as a later-lineup priority, and things conclude with rookies Jordan Walker and Masyn Winn, as well as Richie Palacios. Technically, the Cardinals have options from 1-9, but the spot is not good and the team simply has not come together reliably this seaon.

Play: Kodai Senga, Mets value stacks, Miles Mikolas value

Update Notes:

San Francisco Giants (+105/4.69) @ Atlanta Braves (-114/4.92)

  • Braves starter Yonny Chirinos has a 14.1% strikeout rate with a 5.22 ERA and 5.02 xFIP in 81 innings and eight starts, he does not look like a strong option tonight for $5,800/$6,000. Logan Webb has a projection that is limited by the outrageous offense that he is facing. Even the talented Webb is pushing a 4.92-run implied total in the direction of the elite Atlanta hitters. Webb has a 3.26 ERA and 2.95 xFIP with a 2.64% home run rate coming on just 1.9 degrees of launch angle, but we have seen this team find their run creation and power against similarly profiled pitchers again and again this season. At best, it seems like Webb is in a spot where he could limit the Braves offense while not posting an overly strong fantasy score. The righty is on the list of pitchers who could succeed against this team, he has the right skillset, but it seems like a stretch for MLB DFS purposes and he does not project well int he model with a lower-middle score on a deep slate.
  • LaMonte Wade Jr. is cheap in the leadoff role with a bit of left-handed pop and a 10.2% barrel rate with 40.6% hard hits and a .384 on-base percentage at first base. Wade Meckler slots into the second spot for $2,100/$2,500 as a very cheap correlation option, Wilmer Flores, Joc PedersonMichael Conforto, and Blake Sabol offer power in a righty and three lefties configuration as the lineup continues, they are the key hitters with average home run marks in our model today. Flores has 16 home runs and a .236 ISO, Pederson has 11 in 308 opportunities in a down season and Conforto has also been inconsistent with 15 in 411 chances, Sabol has added 11 long balls in just 285 tries. The Giants do have 1-9 depth with options like Thairo Estrada and Patrick Bailey mixed in amongst those hitters. Giants bats rank 13th for fantasy points but they are a good-looking points-per-dollar play on both sites.
  • Atlanta’s everyday lineup plays with star-caliber depth from 1-9 on most days, they have been elite all season and have shown no signs of slowing down. In what should be scary news around the league, most of the team’s key bats are signed through the end of the decade, so we should be talking about this lineup day after day until 2030 or so for MLB DFS purposes. The Braves are expensive, Ronald Acuna Jr.Austin Riley, and Matt Olson are the three key stars in the projected lineup but everyone around them offers quality and some of them come at strong value prices to help average down cost. Michael Harris II has tons of value hitting second, he offers an excellent triple-slash with on-base skills, power, and speed for just $4,600/$2,900 amidst the collection of stars. Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario have veteran power with 24 and 18 home runs respectively this season for just $4,500/$3,000 and $4,000/$2,800. Travis d’Arnaud is the best power-hitting backup catcher in the game, he has nine homers in 206 plate appearances with a .197 ISO for $4,400/$2,900. Orlando Arcia is a strong late-lineup option for $4,100/$2,700 with a 109 WRC+ in 384 plate appearances at shortstop, and Nicky Lopez slots in with a lefty bat and cheap pricing but more limited production than his teammates.

Play: Braves bats/stacks, Logan Webb, Giants value stacks

Update Notes:

Chicago White Sox (-112/5.93) @ Colorado Rockies (+103/5.70)

  • This game is at Coors Field and neither of the pitchers is in play. Coors punished faders last night with a monster outburst of scoring that became a requirement regardless of what else one had successfully included in lineups.
  • White Sox bats are carrying a 5.93-run implied team total and they rank fifth on our board by fantasy points with a sixth-ranked points-per-dollar mark on FanDuel and a third-ranked spot on DraftKings in the premium hitting environment, they are sure to be popular but they look like a worthy investment. Elvis Andrus is a flawed option in the leadoff role but he can deliver counting stats from time to time, he hit a home run, his fourth of the year, in last night’s game. Andrew Benintendi has a 90 WRC+ and a limited triple-slash as a slap-hitter with speed. Luis Robert Jr. has 32 home runs with 16 stolen bases and a 12.01 in our home run model tonight as a terrific option for $5,700/$4,300, he is pricey and will be popular as the best hitter in this game. Andrew Vaughn has 15 homers with a 104 WRC+ on the season, Yoan Moncada has had limited success at the plate in 227 chances this year but costs just $4,000/$3,000 at third base, and the lineup includes options like Yasmani GrandalZach Remillard, and Lenyn Sosa on the bottom end. Trayce Thompson is one to watch for power at just $3,200/$2,700 in the outfield if he plays, he is projected to hit seventh and has a 6.40 in the home run model with five on the board this year in 110 chances. Thompson hit 13 homers in just 255 plate appearances last year.
  • The Rockies lineup includes Charlie Blackmon for $4,300/$2,900 in the top spot, he has five homers and a 103 WRC+ this season and is more hit/on-base oriented these days. Ezequiel Tovar has 14 home runs and seven stolen bases in a late season surge, he is up to 83 WRC+ and looks like a productive $4,900/$3,300 at shortstop for this squad. Ryan McMahon has an 8.90 in the home run model against the limited White Sox starter, the lefty has 21 long balls and a .218 ISO on the season with all of his power on the strong side of splits. Brendan Rodgers has good mid-range power from the right side, Nolan Jones has hit 12 home runs in just 251 chances and has a 115 WRC+ and a .225 ISO from the left side and costs just $4,600/$3,500, and Elias Diaz is a worthy catcher option with OK power for fair pricing. Jurickson Profar is a limited option, Michael Toglia has power potential, and Brenton Doyle contributes infrequent counting stats with eight homers and 16 steals in 295 chances from the bottom of the lineup.

Play: bats bats bats, they’ll be popular.

Update Notes:

Baltimore Orioles (-180/4.93) @ Oakland Athletics (+164/3.67)

  • Lefties Ken Waldichuk and Cole Irvin both look like very limited options in this matchup, though Irvin has the Athletics checked to just 3.67 implied runs. The southpaw has a 21.1% strikeout rate with a 4.92 ERA and a 4.60 xFIP over 53 innings and nine starts this season, he projects in the lower-middle portion of the board for $5,500/$5,800 against one of the worst lineups in baseball. Waldichuk is pushing potential in the direction of Orioles bats, he has a 6.07 ERA and a 5.10 xFIP with a 21.6% strikeout rate and a 3.45% home run rate on 7.6% barrels with a projection that lands fourth from the bottom of the board, but does beat the two Coors pitchers, for $5,300/$6,300.
  • Orioles bats rank 10th by fantasy point projections but third for FanDuel points-per-dollar value and ninth on the deeper DraftKings slate with a fourth-ranked home run mark. Adley Rutschman is a $5,000/$2,900 catcher with a 122 WRC+ and 16 home runs in the leadoff spot, he is a strong option at the top of Orioles stacks. Ryan Mountcastle moves up to second with massive right-handed power potential in this matchup, he has a 9.20 in our home run model with 16 on the board for the season. Anthony Santander has a 9.59 to lead the team in the home run model, he has hit 21 in his 499 chances. Gunnar Henderson slots in cleanup despite the same-handed pitching matchup, he blasted his 20th home run of the season as our overall home run pick last night and bounces right back with an 8.93 in the home run model for $4,800/$3,000 at third base or shortstop on FanDuel but just shortstop on DraftKings. Jordan Westburg is a strong option with a pair of homers and three stolen bases over 134 plate appearances but a 95 WRC+ overall in his rookie season. Cedric Mullins slots in seventh behind Austin Hays, Mullins is the preferred option with his power and speed blend but he is a lefty against a lefty to start the game, both outfielders are good buys late in the lineup at fair prices. James McCann is a specialist on the strong side of platoons, he will spell Rutschman at catcher with the leadoff man sliding in the DH role today. McCann costs $2,600/$2,200 with three homers and an 80 WRC+ in 157 chances this year. Jorge Mateo is a limited ninth hitter.
  • Esteury Ruiz has a .303 on-base percentage which is a shame because he has stolen 48 bases even in those limited opportunities over 406 plate appearances in an injury-shortened season, it will be fun to see what he can do if he manages around a .330 on-base or better next season. Zack Gelof is the team’s new best hitter with eight home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 168 WRC+ in his first 124 plate appearances but he comes at a high price in a bad stack for $5,400/$4,100. Carlos Perez is a cheap catcher or first baseman on DraftKings, he has a bit of power with five home runs in 145 plate appearances this year. Brent Rooker has right-handed pop on the right day, but those days are few and far between. The balance of the projected Athletics lineup is comprised of mix-in veterans of low quality, if any of the younger players like Tyler Soderstrom work their way into the lineup they would be more interesting, but this is a limited stack even with a bad pitcher on the mound.

Play: Orioles bats/stacks

Update Notes:

Miami Marlins (+163/3.68) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-179/4.93)

  • This game is only on the DraftKings slate. Julio Urias and Braxton Garrett are a pair of talented lefties in bad matchups. Urias has the better shot with the Marlins checked to just 3.68 implied runs in Vegas, he projects fifth overall on our 20-man DraftKings board for $9,200 as a good SP1 option. The Marlins are a frisky team with power and run creation talent against lefties this season, but Urias is a quality option with a 4.35 ERA but 4.05 xFIP and a 24.4% strikeout rate over 99.1 innings and 18 starts. He has had issues with power that are a bit concerning against hitters like some of the righties the Marlins have in the lineup with 4.19% home runs, but that comes on just 7.5% barrels and 33.1% hard hits and looks more like a few mistakes in a limited innings sample. Garrett has a 3.91 ERA and a 24.9% strikeout rate with a 4.1% walk rate and a 2.96% home run rate on just 7.2 degrees of launch, but he is limited by virtue of facing the Dodgers in our pitching model and has a fairly low ceiling in the matchup given somewhat short outings, the lefty has pitched in the seventh inning only once all season.
  • The Marlins are a bit playable, they rank seventh for home run potential with a limited 15th-ranked projection mark. Bryan De La Cruz is projected to lead off against the lefty, the right-handed outfielder is cheap at $3,900/$2,700, he has 16 homers and a .166 ISO with a 97 WRC+ and a strong spot ahead of Jorge Soler who crushes left-handed pitching with regularity and has 32 total home runs after a monster Friday night, and Luis Arraez, who has a .361/.405/.466 triple-slash. Josh Bell is a quality switch-hitter who has 16 homers and a 104 WRC+ in a good spot in the lineup, Jake Burger has a ton of right-handed power and 27 long balls with a .293 ISO on the season, and Yuli Gurriel is slashing .262/.319/.377 with quality against lefties. Avisail Garcia is an inexpensive source of veteran power late in the lineup for just $2,400/$2,200 at the bottom of the projected batting order.
  • The deep Dodgers lineup can always be played from 1-9, they have superstar power and run creation ability up top in expensive Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, Betts remains one of the best buys in the game with his quality at multiple positions on both sites, and Freeman is a fellow contender for the NL MVP with a 166 WRC+ on the season. Will Smith is a high-quality catcher option for $5,700 and JD Martinez has major right-handed thump for $5,200 in the outfield. Amed Rosario and Max Muncy slot into the next two spots, Rosario is interesting for value with a bit of power and speed in a down year overall, and Muncy does not lose quality in same-handed matchups, he has a 9.35 in the home run model today. Enrique HernandezChris Taylor, and Miguel Rojas slide into the bottom of the lineup as quality mix-ins, with Taylor leading the way given his power potential against left-handed pitching.

Play: Dodgers bats/stacks, Julio Urias, Marlins bats/stacks for value

Update Notes:

Arizona Diamondbacks (+161/3.69) @ San Diego Padres (-176/4.91)

  • Righty Yu Darvish looks like a strong option with the Diamondbacks limited to just 3.69 implied runs on the board in Vegas, he has a 3.21% home run rate with a 24.7% strikeout rate on the season while pitching to a 4.24 ERA but a 3.92 xFIP and inducing 10.7% swinging-strikes. Darvish is slightly down across the board in a late-career season but he maintains quality and is facing a Diamondbacks lineup that has been scuffling of late but still limits strikeouts at a fair rate. The inexpensive veteran checks in at just $8,000 with good upside for a win on the two-pitcher site, at worst he is in the mix as a fairly priced SP2, we see value beyond that given his highly-ranked fantasy point projection in our model today. Bryce Jarvis worked three innings in relief on the 15th, he seems unlikely to go more than three or four and does not look like an option even at $4,000.
  • Arizona bats rank fourth overall by fantasy points in a both-sided situation that has them with a ninth-ranked home run upside. Corbin Carroll has a 9.52 in the home run model with 21 in the books and 37 stolen bases in a strong MLB DFS season. Ketel Marte is affordable at second base at $5,600, he is a top positional option with 19 home runs and a .204 ISO while creating runs 24% better than average. Tommy Pham has good mid-range power and speed and gets on base at a .340 clip ahead of the power core of Christian Walker and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. who have 28 and 19 home runs with strikeout rates of just 19.4% and 16.9% respectively. The bottom of the lineup is of more mix-in quality, Geraldo Perdomo is an appealing wrap-around play with a bit of pop, speed, and decent on-base skills.
  • The Padres top end is always in play, the team ranks very well against the rookie starter for Arizona, sitting second overall by projections and first by home run potential in the matchup. Four of the projected Padres hitters are over the “magic number” for home runs tonight, they are the obvious options and catcher Gary Sanchez. All three of Fernando Tatis Jr.Juan Soto, and Manny Machado reach that mark for home run potential with excellent options in Ha-Seong Kim and Xander Bogaerts on either side of the three-man unit. There is a ton of firepower atop the Padres batting order for a fair range of prices and multiple positions, they are a high-priority stack on the DraftKings slate. Sanchez is slated to hit seventh, he did not start in the afternoon game so we should see him tonight and he is the overall home run pick for the day at 10.58. Garrett Cooper is a potentially sneaky late lineup right-handed power hitter if he plays.

Play: Padres bats/stacks, Yu Darvish, mid-level Diamondbacks bats/stacks

Update Notes:

Tampa Bay Rays (-125/4.51) @ Los Angeles Angels (+115/4.09)

  • Righty Zach Eflin costs $9,100 against the free-swinging Angels in what looks like a strong spot that projects in the middle of the deep pitching slate. Eflin has been mostly effective this season with a 3.67 ERA and a very good 3.19 xFIP with a sparkling 3.4% walk rate and a 25.2% strikeout rate, he is a good option even against the home run quality the Angels bring to the plate. Eflin has allowed just 2.67% home runs on 35.8% hard hits and 87.2 mph of exit velocity this season and he has the Angels at just 4.09 implied runs with his team favored on the road at 4.51 runs. Lefty Patrick Sandoval is not bereft of quality for $7,200 on this slate, he is at least an SP2-caliber mix-in option on a slate that is somewhat short on value pitching but he has not been overly strong this season. Sandoval has a 19.7% strikeout rate that is down from the 23.7% last year and 25.9% the season before and he has pitched to a 4.09 ERA and 4.40 xFIP. He is still good at limiting home run power in most outings, allowing just 1.81% long balls in 112.1 innings on 6.7% barrels and 7.8 degrees of launch angle. Sandoval is a fair play for value in the lower-middle of the pitching board.
  • Rays bats are always playable, Sandoval may limit home runs but he has allowed plenty of balls in play and sequencing and this team is very good at both. Yandy Diaz has a 5.91 in the home run model with 16 on the board this season and a 158 WRC+ on the back of a .400 on-base percentage and terrific .322 average. Randy Arozarena is affordable at $5,500, he has 18 homers and 15 stolen bases with a 6.37 in the home run model tonight. Harold Ramirez is an effective run-creation and line-drive hitter in the heart of the order ahead of mashers Isaac Paredes and Jose Siri who have both posted major power outbursts this season. Curtis MeadJosh LoweOsleivis Basabe and anything else in the Rays lineup would be, at worst, a playable mix-in option for fair pricing in this spot when stacking Rays.
  • The Angels have been a disappointment this season, they have Shohei Ohtani in the lineup and he has been outstanding but the team has not gotten going around the presumptive AL MVP. Ohtani blasted a grand slam for his 43rd home run of the season last night he has 17 stolen bases and a 184 ISO at the plate and may have the opportunity to drive in rookie Nolan Schanuel who should be leading off again for just $2,700 at first base. Brandon Drury has right-handed power, Mickey Moniak provides the same from the left side of the plate but has stalled at 12 home runs while his triple-slash has declined over the last few weeks, and Logan O’Hoppe made his way back to the lineup after a long injury absence, he is a good power-hitting catcher option for $2,800. Edouardo Escobar and Hunter Renfroe have cheap power late in the lineup for $2,900 and $3,200, Renfroe’s 18th homer watch continues tonight.

Play: Zach Eflin, Rays bats/stacks, Angels bats/stacks, both in mid-range, Patrick Sandoval SP2 value darts

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