The small five-game MLB DFS main slates get rolling early with a 6:35 ET start on both DraftKings and FanDuel this evening. The board includes only a few truly competent starting pitchers, with a handful of other options that are playable only for lack of alternatives. The slate angles strongly toward hitting in this one, while no team is smashing through the top of our Power Index, there is a nice spread of potential home run and run creation upside across several of the harder-hitting teams in play tonight, including what could be under-owned options against some of the top pitchers. The list of games includes multiple teams with a better than five-run implied total, with each of the Pirates, Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs, and Padres cracking that ceiling. The Padres offense will get a turbocharger added this evening as well, with the long-awaited return of Fernando Tatis Jr. This looks like a slate on which getting to a broad spread of options and embracing a fairly high degree of risk can pay off strongly, there is very little difference between several of the available positions, so simply taking a different angle than the public at large is the preferred approach on tonight’s slate.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, if a game has not been filled in simply check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability, but lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Overview – 4/20/23
Cincinnati Reds (+144/4.05) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-157/5.06)
The first game on deck sees a duel of the National League Central with the hometown Pirates carrying a lofty 5.06-run implied team total that has us wondering if Vegas thinks they are still in Coors Field for another night. The Reds check in at a much more reasonable 4.05 in their matchup against Pirates’ right-hander Roansy Contreras, arguably one of the top pitchers available this evening. Contreras had made three starts and has not been good so far this season. He has a 5.21 xFIP with a 15.9% strikeout rate and an 11.6% walk rate, pitching to a 6.00 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP, though he is yet to allow a home run and has kept hard hits somewhat in check. Contreras made 18 starts and pitched 95 innings last season, posting a 3.79 ERA but a bumpier 4.48 xFIP with a 1.27 WHIP. He was better for strikeouts by quite a bit, with an average 21.1% strikeout rate but a very healthy 12.7% swinging-strike rate and 29.8% CSW%. He allowed plenty of premium contact, giving up an 11% barrel rate and a 45.9% hard-hit rate with a 3.19% home run mark, which will put the Reds’ offense on the board momentarily as well, but between some strikeout potential, a low price across the industry, and a lack of premium options, Contreras is easily worth considering. The righty could get popular at $6,400/$7,300, but this is not a slate on which to sweat individual pitching ownership. With Conreras’ messy contact profile, several of the hitters in the Reds lineup have individual appeal, but they are a limited stack in an overall sense. Only three of the nine projected hitters have a WRC+ that sits above league average, with the top two of Jonathan India and TJ Friedl included on that list. India is at 126 for the season, slashing .290/.410/.435 but he has just one home run and a .145 ISO, making him more of a correlated scoring piece who can also swipe the occasional base, India has three steals in his 78 plate appearances this year and he stole 12 bags in his best season in 2021. Friedl has hit two home runs and has a .194 ISO, but his limited contact profile does not say much for his ongoing power prospects. In 72 plate appearances this year, Friedl has posted a 3.9% barrel rate and a 23.5% hard-hit rate. In 258 opportunities last season, the outfielder had a 4.7% barrel mark and a 29.3% hard-hit rate with eight home runs, which would put his ceiling around 15 in a full season, assuming the contact stays the same. Friedl is a playable but limited option. Jake Fraley has not had good results to this point in 2023, he also had a limited contact profile historically and so far this season, but he has managed a few more home runs than his teammate over time. Last year, Fraley hit 12 home runs in 247 opportunities, despite just a 7.3% barrel rate and a 27.4% hard-hit rate. Tyler Stephenson is a fairly talented catcher play at $4,700/$2,700, but he has no home runs with a .032 ISO and a 78 WRC+ so far this year. Last season, Stephenson was one of a handful of Reds who were better in small samples, he posted a 134 WRC+ with six home runs in his 183 plate appearances. Wil Myers is probably the best bat on this team at the moment, but he is slashing just .242/.319/.371 with two home runs and a .129 ISO while creating runs 17% below average. Myers costs just $3,300/$2,900, but he is a better option in Reds home games overall. Jason Vosler sits second to Fraley in our home run model for the Reds today, he has three home runs to lead this team so far this year and has posted a healthy .250 ISO in 54 plate appearances, but is also slashing just .173/.204/.423 with a 54 WRC+. Spencer Steer has a .200 ISO and two home runs over his 59 plate appearances. The cheap third baseman is the other player on this team who has been better than average for run creation this season, posting a team-leading 150 in the small sample. Steer made 108 underwhelming plate appearances in the Show last season, but he is a playable option who has been walking and putting the ball in play in addition to driving it for power and run creation. Nick Senzel, not so much. The well past hype former top prospect never found his way at the Major League level, he costs just $2,400/$2,700 with third base and outfield eligibility on DraftKings, but there is just not much on which to hang one’s hopes. Senzel is slashing .190/.292/.238 with a .048 ISO in his 24 tries this year, he slashed .231/.296/.306 with a .075 ISO in 420 plate appearances last year, a deeper organization would have cut bait by now. Jose Barrero rounds out the projected lineup as a mix-and-match cheap spare part.
Yes, that Luke Weaver. You can be forgiven if the name only seemed familiar in a “rings a bell” sense, Weaver has not pitched much over the past four seasons. Since throwing 136.1 innings for St. Louis in 2018, the now 29-year-old righty had three seasons of between 52 and 65.2 innings, making a dozen starts in each of three seasons with Arizona, and he threw just 35.2 innings in 26 games and one start last season. Weaver has a 4.07 xFIP for his career, with a 4.79 ERA and a 23.4% strikeout rate, he is decidedly average and he is making his season debut after opening the year on the Injured List. On this slate, at these prices and against the Pirates, an average performance may be just enough. Weaver projects in the middle of the pitching board and he costs just $5,900/$6,900, but the Pirates are pulling more than a five-run implied team total in Vegas, which puts the team’s bats in play as well. While that number seems high, there is plenty of reason to expect that the Pirates can hit Weaver for sequencing and run creation, and he has never been great at avoiding premium contact. After the stint at Coors Field over the past few days, Ke’Bryan Hayes returns to Pittsburgh sporting a .222/.288/.361 triple-slash that is still just, really, not at al good. Hayes does not show much, he has a home run and three stolen bases and he comes cheap at $4,000/$2,900 ahead of a few interesting hitters, but there is an abundance of better options. Bryan Reynolds costs $6,000/$4,100, he has been stuck on five home runs for several days now, but the outfielder has been off to an outrageously good start overall and still sits 27% better than average at run creation. Reynolds has a fantastic 18.2% barrel rate with a 50% mark for hard hits so far this year, he has stolen three bases and has an excellent .263 ISO, he is an elite bat for MLB DFS. Andrew McCutchen has surprised everyone in baseball with his quality in returning to the Pirates so far this season. Over 72 plate appearances, “Cutch” has hit four home runs and has created runs 64% better than average, posting a .276 ISO. The veteran former superstar is slashing .310/.417/.586 in the young season. McCutchen hit 17 home runs last year but slashed just .237/.316/.384 with a 98 WRC+, but he had 27 homers and a 107 WRC+ as recently as 2021, so this is not wholly unbelievable. Carlos Santana has power on both sides of the plate and has created runs 12% better than average for far this season. Santana is another cheap quality veteran bat in the heart of the Pirates lineup at just $3,400/$2,900. The switch-hitting first baseman is ahead of lefty Jack Suwinski who leads our home run model for the team with a 7.70. Suwinski went deep twice just a few nights ago, he has four home runs and an absurd .361 ISO with a 146 WRC+ over his first 45 opportunities this season and his power was on display in 372 plate appearances last year, over which he hit 19 home runs with a .209 ISO. Suwinski’s power is for real, but he comes with strikeout downside that can put holes in a lineup, so there is a buyer beware situation with the slugger. Canaan Smith-Njigba and Rodolfo Castro are a pair of under-appreciated bats out to different starts this season. Smith-Njigba has a highly regarded contact profile coming into the league and he has posted a 12.5% barrel rate and a 43.8% hard-hit rate but that has not translated to his power stats or his triple-slash in the extremely small 35 plate appearance sample, odds are this player will hit sooner rather than later, getting there early is always a good idea. Castro, on the other hand, is off to a great start. The cheap infielder is slashing .318/.418/.511 with a .191 ISO, two home runs, and a 154 WRC+ in his 55 plate appearances this season. Castro hit 11 home runs in 278 opportunities with a .194 ISO and a 102 WRC+ last year, there is some believability to his bat. Ji-Hwan Bae and Austin Hedges are movable parts at the bottom of the lineup. Bae is up to .241/.317/.389 with a pair of home runs and five stolen bases for the year but his $4,100 price is a bit high on DraftKings.
Play: Four Corners game but with low expectations on every piece. Contreras and Weaver are in play as cheap pitchers facing generally bad lineups, but those lineups are also in play against the roughly average pitchers.
Update Notes: the Reds lineup was confirmed as-projected. The Pirates will have Connor Joe hitting fifth between Santana and Suwinski with Smith-Njigba out of the lineup, otherwise things are as planned. Joe is a playable part, he is slashing an excellent .340/.426/.596 with a .255 ISO and one home run in his 54 plate appearances so far this season, though his output in the Show has been moderate at best to this point in his career.
Colorado Rockies (+202/3.64) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-224/5.49)
Also departing the Coors Field launching pad are the Rockies, who travel to Philadelphia to take on lefty Matt Strahm who checks in at a $7,000/$9,000 price mismatch from site to site. Strahm has been fun to watch early this season, the converted reliever has a 32% strikeout rate over 12.2 innings in his three starts, pitching to a 3.70 xFIP with a 0.95 WHIP. The southpaw has allowed a 2.0% home run rate with a 41.4% hard-hit and a 13.8% barrel mark so far, the premium contact numbers are not great but Strahm has gotten by with his ability to miss bats, he has a 14.8% swinging-strike rate for the season. The primary concern in rostering Strahm as a pitching option, particularly where reaching the quality start matters, is his potential to pitch deep into the game. In his three starts, Strahm has pitched in the fifth inning only once. He threw 4.0 innings of one-hit one-walk baseball while striking out three in his first start against the Yankees, then completed five shutout innings allowing four hits and striking out six Marlins, but he failed to reach the six innings required for a quality start. In his last outing, Strahm lasted just 2.2 innings, facing 13 hitters and allowing three runs on two hits, one of which was a home run, while walking three and striking out six. There is certainly appealing strikeout upside on a short slate, particularly against the largely inept Rockies, Strahm is an easy click on the DraftKings slate where he is cheap and the quality start does not matter, he is a fair bet to reach the win bonus against this Rockies club. On the blue site, the question looms much larger, the price tag is high for a pitcher who seems likely to go only five innings, but there might be enough upside on strikeouts alone for Strahm to help win a slate this evening. Helping Strahm’s case is a Colorado projected lineup that has an average current-year WRC+ of just 85, putting their average run creation 15% worse than the league average, which is not good for business. The Rockies lineup features Jurickson Profar in the leadoff spot. The middling talent has two home runs and a 54 WRC+ with a .279 on-base percentage, a leadoff hitter he is not. Profar is followed by premium Major League talent in the form of Kris Bryant, who deserves better than having to play for this team. Bryant is slashing .310/.380/.493 with a 122 WRC+ and a .183 ISO, he has three home runs on the season and is playable in any park in baseball. Charlie Blackmon has been less productive over the past two seasons but he is off to an OK start with a home run and a 110 WRC+ and he makes for a cheap click in the outfield for MLB DFS lineups, though the same-handed pitching matchup is not ideal. C.J. Cron is the daily team leader in our home run model for Colorado, he is sitting at just an average 7.57 today, and the first baseman has scuffled somewhat after a hot start with four home runs over the first week and change of the 2023 season. Cron has those same four home runs on the board still, with a .226 ISO but just an 82 WRC+. Still, buying his 19% barrel rate and 47.6% hard-hit mark against a lefty in a hitter’s park looks like a good idea if he comes up low-owned around the industry. Ryan McMahon may sit with a high-strikeout lefty on the mound, but he is an option if he plays. McMahon loses quality in same-handed plate appearances, he has just a 78 WRC+ and a .167 ISO for his career against fellow southpaws, but he remains one of this team’s better bats regardless. Elehuris Montero hits from the right side of the plate and is a highly-regarded hitting prospect. Over 49 plate appearances, Montero is slashing .283/.327/.413 with an 86 WRC+ so far, but he is at least cheap and will not be overly popular in this matchup. Yonathan Daza and Ezequiel Tovar round out the projected starting lineup, Daza has a 46 WRC+ in his 66 plate appearances, Tovar is beating him to the bottom with a 28 in his 63 tries.
Just a guess, but the Phillies are going to be extremely popular tonight. The team is facing righty Ryan Feltner who has a 5.18 xFIP and a 16.9% walk rate with a 1.95 WHIP and an 8.78 ERA in his first 13.1 innings this year. In a fairer sample across 19 starts and 97.1 innings last year, Feltner was not much better with a 4.43 xFIP and 5.83 ERA to go with his 1.41 WHIP. The righty only struck out 19.6% of opposing hitters and gave up a 3.74% home run rate with a 42.8% mark for hard hits. Feltner has an average arsenal with a mid-90s fastball that lacks for premium spin and hittable breaking pitches, he is lending large projections to multiple Phillies hitters in this matchup. Feltner costs just $5,700/$6,400, but that is for a reason, he is not a likely candidate for success tonight. Bryson Stott has found a good home atop the Phillies lineup where his on-base acumen has been valuable in the early part of the season. Stott is slashing a robust .365/.372/.482 while creating runs 30% better than average. He has a home run and a stolen base and he remains cheap at $3,900/$2,900 with eligibility at second base. Trea Turner starts the true run of stars in the Phliadelphia lineup. The shortstop is slashing an excellent .321/.375/.444 with a 117 WRC+ and he has a home run to his credit finally. Turner’s power was out slightly after an outstanding World Baseball Classic performance, but he will return to form in the home run department in short order and he has been extremely productive adding four stolen bases to his totals. Kyle Schwarber has four home runs on the season with a .225 ISO and a 16.3% barrel rate, but he has struggled somewhat overall in his 83 plate appearances. Schwarber leads the entire slate with a 15.58 in our home run model this evening, putting him well above the next three excellent options (Pete Alonso, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Patrick Wisdom) on the overall board. Schwarber has massive power and a great matchup, he is almost certain to be popular at $6,100/$3,100. Nick Castellanos has yet to homer but he has created runs 18% better than average and has been a key piece of the machine for the Phillies. Castellanos is inexpensive for his quality, he belongs in most Phillies stacks tonight. Hitting behind Castellanos, left-handed outfielder Brandon Marsh has been the team’s best hitter through the first 62 plate appearances of his season. Marsh is slashing .368/.419/.737 with a massive .368 ISO and three home runs. The outfielder has created runs a phenomenal 101% better than league average by WRC+ so far this season, making him easily the most valuable $4,900 player on the DraftKings slate in this layup of a matchup. Marsh looks like a great play at $3,700 on the FanDuel slate as well, though that price is closer to accurate for the dynamic outfielder. Marsh will no doubt be popular as well, but there are plenty of ways to offset carrying individually popular hitters on this slate, it should not be a concern. J.T. Realmuto is slashing .270/.288/.476 with a .206 ISO and two home runs, the best-hitting catcher in baseball is always in play even where his position is not a requirement, at $2,900 on the blue site, Realmuto is a major potential bargain. Alec Bohm is the last go-to hitter in this version of the Philadelphia lineup, Bohm has also been very good to start the year, the former first-round pick is slashing .324/.400/.493 and creating runs 42% better than average. Bohm costs just $4,700/$3,600 with eligibility at both corner infield spots on the DraftKings slate. Jake Cave and Josh Harrison are replacement-level moving parts at the bottom of the projected lineup.
Play: Phillies bats enthusiastically, some Matt Strahm, minor shares of Rockies top-end righties
Update Notes: the confirmed lineups for the Phillies is as expected, the Rockies have Blackmon out of the lineup with McMahon hitting third, and Alan Trejo slotting in eighth.
Los Angeles Dodgers (+108/5.14) @ Chicago Cubs (-117/5.48)
The Dodgers and Cubs are both carrying implied team totals above the five-run mark in their matchup at Wrigley Field this evening. The forecast is calling for a strong wind blowing out, which typically means home runs and plenty of scoring, lending even more upside to the already slate-leading options available in this game. The Dodgers will be facing righty Jameson Taillon, who is making his fourth start of the season. Taillon has a 4.12 xFIP with a 4.50 ERA and a 25.8% strikeout rate over his first 14 innings, all quality numbers that warrant a bit of respect. The righty is yet to yield a home run this season and has kept hard hits in check at just a 33.3% rate in the small sample. Taillon has always been at or around league average, he had a 20.7% strikeout rate with a 3.79 xFIP and was reasonably good at limiting premium contact over 177.1 innings in 32 starts last year and he had a 23.2% strikeout rate but a 4.69 xFIP the year before across 144.1 innings. The righty is a nice story, reclaiming his career after multiple Tommy John Surgeries, he is in play for minor shares on a very thin pitching slate, but Original Cubs starter Jameson Taillon scratched and was placed on the IL, his place will be taken by Javier Assad in what will likely be just a two to three-inning outing, this is a bump to the already strong Dodgers offense, which is very likely to be the story of this game. The loaded Dodgers lineup was missing Mookie Betts once again last night – Betts is on the Paternity List, he is not injured – after rumors persisted all afternoon that not only would he be in the lineup, but that he would be starting at shortstop, which could eventually add outstanding multi-position appeal to the superstar. If Betts plays today he should be in essentially every Dodgers stack. James Outman has occupied the leadoff role in Betts’ absence. The lefty has three home runs and two stolen bases so far this season and he has created runs 57% better than average over his first 68 opportunities. Outman has made fantastic contact so far, posting a 19.4% barrel rate and a 41.7% hard-hit and he costs just $4,000/$3,200. The outfielder will likely be popular in what will no doubt be a focus game for the field, but he is worthwhile if he plays. Freddie Freeman is an excellent first baseman to whom any superlative can be applied, probably including “future Hall of Famer,” Freeman is that good. The first baseman costs $5,500/$3,600, which seems a bit light for his talent level. After his first year in Dodgers’ blue saw Freeman post a .325/.407/.511 triple slash and create runs 57% better than average with 21 home runs, 117 runs, and 100 RBIs, as well as 13 steals, in 708 plate appearances in 2022, Freeman is off to a .311/.395/.486 start with a 141 WRC+ and three home runs. He is an excellent choice as a one-off or as a key component in Dodgers stacks. Right-handed JD Martinez has three home runs on the board this year and a killer .288 ISO, he has hit the ball hard and is the third Dodgers hitter out of three featured so far to sport a top-end barrel rate so far this year. Amazingly, Martinez’s 16% ranks him fourth among the team’s top five in the category, with Freeman’s 11.7% sitting last and Max Muncy leading the way at 25% in his 75 plate appearances. With the righty-lefty power core of Martinez and Muncy hitting behind the excellent top of the lineup, Dodgers stacks build themselves. There are plenty of good options down the lineup as well, however. After Muncy’s seven home runs and .356 ISO, MLB DFS gamers can look to the limited sample of Jason Heyward who has smoked the ball over 35 plate appearances. The veteran has three home runs and a .333 ISO in the microscopic sample, but we should not expect a late-career surge at this point. Miguel Vargas has created runs three percent below average and struggled to start the year, but he helps offset any pricing and popularity concerns from the better options in this lineup and he has a capable reputation. Veterans David Peralta and Austin Barnes make for mix-and-match pieces from the bottom third, while Luke Williams slots in at the minimum price with second base and outfield eligibility on DraftKings and at second or third base on the blue site. Williams had a home run and stole 11 bases in his limited 136 plate appearances last season. The top half of the projected lineup is the focus for the Dodgers tonight, but there are inexpensive unpopular names who could deliver from the bottom of the batting order.
The Cubs were a featured team in the Power Index yesterday in their matchup against high-end rookie starter Mason Miller, who electrified with his 102mph fastball. Miller kept the Cubs in check for his portion of the game, but the team lit up the Athletics bullpen in the later innings, leading to a 12-run score but just one home run by the less-than-likely Eric Hosmer. Chicago returns to the top of the home run potential board in today’s matchup with Dodgers’ righty Michael Grove, who has been good at limiting power over his first three outings of 2023 but struggled more with premium contact in his 29.1 innings in six starts last year. Grove gave up six home runs to 133 hitters in those outings, posting a 4.51% home run rate with a 43.4% hard-hit and a 91.6 mph average exit velocity allowed. More concerningly, Grove was also not great at keeping power in check in the minors last year, he allowed 10 home runs in 59.2 innings, facing 255 hitters. Grove pitched to a 26.7% strikeout rate but had a 4.79 xFIP in those outings, he is not a premium prospect either, Grove is simply filling a spot for the Dodgers at the moment. The 26-year-old righty is probably past his prospect expiration date, and he was ranked in the twenties organizationally coming into the season. Grove is targetable with the solid bats offered by the Cubs’ projected lineup. The focus hitters who land above the 10-mark in our home run model are Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki, and Patrick Wisdom, at 10.08, 11.77, and 11.82 respectively. They are joined by Ian Happ at 9.75 and Cody Bellinger at 9.54 as the most likely power core for Chicago. This team could be useful for stacking as they have been creating runs at a solid clip this season beyond their power-hitting. Chicago’s projected top-six has an average current-year WRC+ of 147 and they are getting on base at exactly a .400 rate as a unit, this is an underrated ball club both on the real-life diamond and for MLB DFS. Nico Hoerner has a lower-end power profile than his teammates, but he is an excellent option for correlated scoring and he has created runs 24% better than average while getting on base at a .395 clip and stealing nine bags already this year. Swanson is slashing .333/.432/.381 with a 131 WRC+ and comes cheap on the FanDuel slate at $3,200. Happ and Suzuki are mashers who have excellent power profiles against this pitcher while also having strong hit and on-base skills, helping the team’s cause when it comes to sequencing. In the extremely small sample through the first part of the season, the same group of Cubs hitters who have done so well in creating runs and getting on base also has a .319 batting average, they have had the ball in play all year. Bellinger and Wisdom add two more major power bats in the projected fifth and sixth spots in the lineup, and the bottom of the projected lineup has veteran quality as well. Hosmer is projected to hit eighth, while he is unlikely to hit another one out of the yard he is carrying a 6.47 in our model and he has always had a well-thought-of hit tool. Trey Mancini is another grizzled veteran, the righty has scuffled to just a .196/.220/.250 triple-slash with a .054 ISO this season, but he has a long track record and should get plenty of leash with the team playing well, Mancini is still a good bet to come around eventually and he is cheap for now at $2,700/$2,600. Catcher Yan Gomes rounds out the projected batting order, he has three surprising home runs on the board with a .214 ISO to start the season, putting him nearly halfway to last year’s total of eight home runs. Gomes did hit 14 long balls with a .169 ISO in 375 opportunities in 2021, so a bit of the early power is believable, as is his 11.1% barrel rate to this point. The Cubs are a worthwhile and affordable stack on this slate, but they could pull popularity, depending on what the field chooses to think of Grove at the price.
Play: Dodgers bats and Cubs bats enthusiastically, pitching shares for those willing to embrace the risk for value
Update Notes: Betts remains out on the Paternity List, Outman is leading off, Trayce Thompson drops into the lineup hitting fifth behind Muncy, with Peralta-Vargas-Williams-Barnes rounding out the order. The Cubs flipped Hosmer and Mancini in the seven and eight spots respectively, and Tucker Barnhart is in for Gomes. There are minor weather concerns in this game, but it seems likely to be just a late start if anything at all.
San Diego Padres (-139/5.45) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (+128/4.66)
The Padres will be getting superstar shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. back in their lineup this evening, with the player’s suspension finally expiring, and it is worth noting that he is somehow absurdly at the minimum price on DraftKings tonight, which should render the shortstop explosively popular with good reason. Tatis is a premium star who has been largely absent for more than a year between a long-term injury and his suspension for PEDs, his last Major League game was in October of 2021. That season was Tatis’ first full year in the Show, he made 546 plate appearances after being limited to 257 in 59 games in the broken 2020 season and just 372 plate appearances after his mid-season call-up in 2019 at age 20. In the full season in 2021, his age-22 season, Tatis hit a spectacular 42 home runs and stole 25 bases. He had a monstrous .328 ISO and created runs 57% better than average, making him one of baseball’s best players. The return to form seems extremely likely, Tatis was a top prospect on his way up and has done nothing but deliver since his arrival, mistakes aside. The shortstop slots in immediately with the third-highest mark in our home run model tonight, putting him between Alonso and Wisdom, he will no doubt be popular but he is likely to deliver in a matchup against rookie hurler Ryne Nelson. Over 17 innings in three starts, Nelson has just a 14.3% strikeout rate with a 4.95 xFIP and a better-looking 3.71 ERA. The righty made three starts in the Show last year, striking out 23.2% and pitching to a 0.82 WHIP, he is a highly regarded young pitcher but he has yet to truly find his form at this level, he has completed at least five innings in each of his starts and he pitched through the sixth twice. Nelson had a better strikeout rate through the minors, but this is a very difficult matchup and he is not a great option, even with the short pitching slate. Nelson could succeed tonight, but the probabilities are thin. After Tatis, the excellent top-end of the Padres lineup that we have seen to this point in the season remains intact. Juan Soto lands in the two-hole, he costs $5,000 on DraftKings where they have not fully lost faith in the star hitter, but FanDuel has Soto at just $3,500, which is too low. While his .194/.372/.418 triple-slash does not look it, Soto has still created runs 18% better than average and he has a .224 ISO with four home runs this season. His strikeouts are up somewhat from 14.5% to 20.9% but that will likely come back down, and his 22.1% walk rate has him in play every game. Soto has an excellent contact profile as well, despite any thoughts of struggles. Over his 86 plate appearances, the outfielder has a 16.3% barrel rate and a 53.1% hard-hit rate, Soto can be played enthusiastically in all scenarios. Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts form probably the league’s best left side of the infield, the tandem offers fantastic skills at the plate. Machado has scuffled to start the year but is a proven All-Star who will come around, he hit 32 home runs and had a .234 ISO with a 152 WRC+ last year, but sits with just one home run and a .076 ISO over 84 tries this season. Machado is carrying a very strong buy recommendation at his $4,800/$3,000 pricing, those numbers are just objectively incorrect for this hitter against this pitcher in this lineup. Bogaerts comes in at $5,000/$3,800, he is also too cheap but less aggressively so than Machado. The shortstop has done nothing but hit on arrival in San Diego, he is slashing .342/.414/.539 with a 161 WRC+ and four home runs. Matt Carpenter should be sitting on a porch somewhere enjoying his retirement after a wholly unexpected short-term bounce back in 154 plate appearances last season. Carpenter had been basically out of baseball before the miracle comeback, which was a nice story but is probably over. The utility man has a .143/.318/.257 triple slash to start the season, though it is worth mentioning that he has a 13% barrel rate in his few batted ball events. Carpenter is capable of hitting the odd home run but not much else, he will eventually be pushed out of this lineup entirely. Jake Cronenworth has a 105 WRC+ for the year, Ha-Seong Kim sits at 85, and Trent Grisham is at 110, all three are playable pieces for this team, they can help offset the cost and popularity of their more talented teammates in a full stack. Austin Nola is the projected starting catcher in the ninth spot in the lineup, he has not been productive this season and had just four home runs and an 89 WRC+ with a .078 ISO in 397 tries last year, there are better backstops.
Padres righty Michael Wacha is a recognizable name on a thin slate who comes at a fair middle-class price tag, which is likely going to make him more popular than he should be against a reasonably good Diamondbacks lineup. Wacha has been a league-average pitcher throughout his career, he had a 3.99 xFIP with a 20.2% strikeout rate over 127.1 innings in 23 starts last year, a 3.91 xFIP with a 22.9% strikeout rate in 124.2 innings and 23 starts the year before, and he’ll probably land around a 4.00 xFIP in 23 starts this year too. Over his now 10-year career, Wacha has a 4.01 xFIP and a 20.9% strikeout rate, he is a create-a-player level of average. Still, as we said earlier, just being average on a slate like this one might be enough on the mound. Wacha is in play, but watch his popularity, if he gets out of control there are equivalent options for less salary. That will likely be the case when we look at the other available names on the slate, it just seems likely that the public at large will see Wacha+Diamondbacks and click. This both overrates the righty starter and underrates the Arizona offense. The Diamondbacks have five hitters with better-than-average WRC+ marks in the early part of the season and six of the nine projected hitters were above average for all of last year. Josh Rojas is slashing .322/.359/.424 with a 110 WRC+ and two stolen bases in his first 65 plate appearances this year, he was at 108 for run creation across 510 tries last season, hitting nine home runs and swiping 23 bases. Rojas is an inexpensive correlation piece in the infield, though there are more high-end third basemen on most slates. Ketel Marte has gotten his season in order, he has a 102 WRC+, two home runs, and a .203 ISO over 73 plate appearances after a briefly slow start. Marte hit 12 home runs last year and 14 the season before, his ISO was a respectable .215 with a 139 WRC+ in the 2021 campaign, he slipped for power last year with just a .167 ISO, but his run creation was above water with a 102 WRC+. Corbin Carroll will be a star before long. The top prospect has been raking so far with a .292/.333/.554 triple-slash, a .262 ISO, four home runs, and seven stolen bases. Projected to hit third, Carroll could be a great buy on the left side of the plate against a middling righty. He pairs nicely in the heart of the order with power-hitting Christian Walker, whose two home runs to this point are a big letdown after he mashed 36 last season. Walker’s contact profile has slipped dramatically to start the year, he has just a 7.1% barrel rate and a 32.1% hard-hit mark, but it is early for panic buttons just yet. The positive result in his low early output is a greatly reduced price, Walker costs just $3,200/$2,700 tonight, he is a good bargain buy in this lineup. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has a 75 WRC+ so far with just one home run and a .136 ISO, it is actually surprising that the Diamondbacks lineup has been as productive as it has with Gurriel at that mark and Walker at a lowly 44, which speaks to the talent on this squad in general. Gurriel hit just five home runs with a .108 ISO last year but he had a 114 WRC+ and was a productive correlation play all year. He hit 21 home runs with a stout .190 ISO the year before, so there is reason to believe in at least mid-range power potential. Pavin Smith is in the projected lineup hitting sixth, with Gabriel Moreno behind the plate hitting seventh. Smith has a pair of home runs in 24 plate appearances to start his year, he is cheap tonight, as is Moreno, who has a single home run with aa 77 WRC+ over his 48 plate appearances. Both players have reasonably good bats for their very low prices, they could be in play if they are in the confirmed lineup. Alek Thomas and Geraldo Perdomo round things out with prospect quality, with Perdomo’s start sitting well above what Thomas has done this year. The infielder has a 187 WRC+ and a .219 ISO after a hot start in his 40 plate appearances. Perdomo was a regular for most of last season and he dramatically underperformed expectations, slashing just .195/.285/.262 with a 58 WRC+ but he may be arriving in full this season. Thomas is a $2,100/$2,400 outfielder with a touch of lefty power.
Play: Padres stacks, Diamondbacks stacks, tempered expectations for pitching quality
Update Notes: Ketel Marte and Pavin Smith are out of the lineup for Arizona, Gurriel jumps up to the second spot in the lineup, Jake McCarthy brings speed to the five spot, and Nick Ahmed is a low-impact infielder hitting eighth.
New York Mets (-114/4.14) @ San Francisco Giants (+105/3.95)
The visiting Mets are taking on the slate’s most proven starter in lefty Sean Manaea whose 27.7% strikeout rate is a strong mark to start his season over 11.1 innings in two outings. Manaea threw 158 innings in 28 starts last year, he had a 23.2% strikeout rate and 3.96 xFIP which was a full run better than his deceptive 4.96 ERA. He did allow too much power, giving up a 4.32% home run rate with a 42.6% hard-hit rate, a 9.1% barrel mark, and 90.3 mph of average exit velocity, but Manaea is a proven starter who is adept at missing bats. He had a 25.7% strikeout rate in 179.1 innings in 2021, for the $9,900/$8,600 this is one of the more likely strikeout leaders on tonight’s slate. Manaea is facing stiff competition in the Mets lineup, which will challenge both with a general ability to limit strikeouts and their quality sequencing and power skills. Manaea will have to navigate a lineup that opens with excellent leadoff hitter Brandon Nimmo, who should see the start regardless of the same-handed matchup. Nimmo is slashing .349/.481/.467 with a 172 WRC+ to start the season, he was 34% better than average creating runs in 673 opportunities last year and he is one of the best correlation pieces in baseball. Mark Canha slots into the second spot in the lineup, with Starling Marte potentially out with neck soreness. Canha is a capable bat in this spot, he is slashing just .213/.319/.393 this season but he has managed to maintain a 100 WRC+ and he has two home runs and two stolen bases. Last year, Canha got on base at a .367 clip and created runs 28% better than average in 542 plate appearances, he is an under-appreciated option if he hits second tonight. Francisco Lindor has four home runs and two steals with a .275 ISO and a 137 WRC+, he is outdone by fellow star Pete Alonso who has eight home runs and a .342 ISO with a 163 WRC+ so far this season. The pair of stars are the heart of the order for the Mets, they can always be rostered under any circumstances and they are worth the $4,900/$4,200 and $5,800/$4,300 salaries. The asking prices on DraftKings are probably a bit low for both players, in fact. Tommy Pham, Jeff McNeil, and Eduardo Escobar are all playable veteran pieces through the middle of the lineup, Pham has two home runs this season with a 114 WRC+, McNeil is cheap at $3,400/$2,700, the slap-hitter has been above average creating runs this season, and Escobar offers power from both sides of the plate though he has just one home run and a WRC+ that sits at seven, yes 7, for the season. The lowly run creation mark has us remembering the movie Black Sheep and the classic “Seven. Seven miles per hour!” scene, but it does not inspire much confidence from an MLB DFS standpoint. Brett Baty is a top rookie who is pulling in a respectable 7.07 as tonight’s Mets home run pick. That is a fun pick, but the team leader is Alonso at 13.79 for anyone placing actual bets. Tomas Nido is a defense-only catcher, the Mets lineup runs from one through eight tonight.
The Giants make for an interesting spot for hitting in this matchup. The team is taking on one of the slate’s better pitchers, Kodai Senga, who should be highly popular with the limited options on the mound. Senga has been good over his first three starts and 16 innings in the Majors, he has a 3.64 xFIP with a 3.38 ERA and a 30% strikeout rate. He has a few blips in his ugly 14.3% walk rate and the 43.6% hard-hit rate he has allowed, leading to three home runs allowed. Senga’s best start to date came in his debut, the righty struck out eight of the 21 hitters he faced and yielded a lone run on three hits. He was sharp in his second start as well, booking six strikeouts, but he allowed a home run and walked three for the second straight game. In his most recent outing, against the lowly Athletics, Senga struck out seven but also walked four and allowed four runs on seven hits, including a pair of home runs. He will have to be better than that against the Giants in this matchup. The free-swinging San Francisco offense might boost the strikeout potential for the Mets’ hurler, but there is definite home run upside in several of the bats that Senga will face. The projected lineup includes LaMonte Wade Jr. in the leadoff role. Wade has a home run and just a .100 ISO for the season over 58 plate appearances, he hit eight homers with a .152 ISO in 251 opportunities last year but had a solid 18 in 381 tries with a .229 ISO in 2021. Wade has struggled to rediscover that form, but there is moderate potential in his bat at first base for just $3,100/$2,700, Wade has an 8.59 in the home run model tonight. Thairo Estrada had a solid breakout last year in his first chance at a full-time role. Estrada hit 14 home runs and had a .141 ISO with a 107 WRC+, adding 21 stolen bases while slashing .260/.322/.402 for the year. He has been better out of the gate this season, over 70 plate appearances Estrada is slashing .323/.371/.523 with a .200 ISO, three home runs, and three stolen bases. With eligibility at second base and in the outfield for $5,400 Estrada is a playable piece and by far the most expensive option in the Giants’ lineup on the DraftKings slate, he costs $3,600 at second base and shortstop and is an easy click on the blue site tonight. Michael Conforto missed all of last season, but the left-handed outfielder has a good bat at the plate when he is right. Over 53 plate appearances in 2023, Conforto has hit four home runs and he has a significant .279 ISO while creating runs 42% better than average. That is impressive production from a player who costs just $3,900/$3,200, Conforto is an under-appreciated asset. J.D. Davis has been mentioned in glowing terms in this space since the start of the season, nothing changes about that tonight. The right-handed masher should be in the lineup no matter what from here out for the Giants, his bat is too good. Davis is slashing .333/.373/.593 with a .259 ISO and a 157 WRC+ over his 59 plate appearances this season, and that is with his typically excellent contact profile actually slightly down so far. Lefty Mike Yastrzemski has an 8.79 in the home run model, sitting just slightly behind David Villar who is second on the team at 8.88. Conforto’s 8.98 leads the way for the Giants in this one. The top six hitters are all pulling in excellent marks and can be stacked with one another inexpensively and probably at lower ownership than they should be. This is a play for power and home run upside, it is important to remember that Senga’s talent and strikeout ability could keep this offense in check, so set expectations accordingly. The Giants may be a great source of one-off talent this evening. The bottom third of the Giants lineup includes lefty shortstop Brandon Crawford who has two home runs this year, catcher Joey Bart, and Blake Sabol. Of the three, Crawford is still the most interesting at the plate, he hit just nine home runs in 458 plate appearances last year but he had 24 the season before. The talent has diminished as Crawford ages, but the lefty could still get into one against Senga for a low-owned shocker.
Play: Four Corners: Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, Giants bats, Mets bats
Update Notes:
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