Wednesday’s split-slate MLB DFS action lands with a six-game Main Slate starting at 6:35 ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The slate is taking an interesting shape, with a few premium pitchers available and a few strong arms landing in the value range. There are also several excellent spots for offensive upside, so getting to a broad mix of pitchers at the top of the board while exploiting the value spots in a few specific shares makes sense, though the talent on this slate is priced at a premium, unlike what we saw in the afternoon. Hitting is available across the slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel, with a number of under-priced options that may be neglected to some degree by the public.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, if a game has not been filled in simply check back in a few minutes. Lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to any news for changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Overview – 4/12/23
Oakland Athletics (+164/3.89) @ Baltimore Orioles (-179/5.22)
The first game on the slate sees the lowly athletics in Baltimore again, with the team checking in as +164 underdogs carrying a 3.89-run implied team total to their opponent’s excellent 5.22 mark. With temperatures already climbing on the East Coast, this could be an excellent overall hitting environment, but the stars are much more aligned in favor of the hometown Orioles. The limited Athletics lineup is facing right-hander Dean Kremer, who has two years of below-average performance on his recent ledger. Kremer made 21 starts and pitched to a 4.43 xFIP over 125.1 innings last season while striking out just 17% of opposing hitters. His true nature is somewhat masked by the sharp 3.23 ERA that he posted, the xFIP mark reveals that he was somewhat lucky in the earned runs category. The righty had a 19.2% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate with a 5.73 xFIP in 53.2 innings in 2021, he has not been good at the Major League level, and he has allowed three home runs in eight innings so far in 2023. Kremer has a 5.42 xFIP for the season, which is actually quite a bit better than his 10.13 ERA, he should not be trusted for many pitching shares, but he can be deployed in at least some shares for his $5,500/$6,200 pricing in a matchup as favorable as this one. The Athletics are similarly bad but playable given the matchup. Kremer is not good, but the Oakland bats might not get to him anyway. Lefty Tony Kemp is projected to lead off, he costs just $3,600/$2,500 with eligibility at second base on DraftKings, to which he adds outfield positioning on the blue site. Kemp hit seven home runs and stole 11 bases over 558 plate appearances in 2022 but created runs nine percent below average and had just a .099 ISO. Ryan Noda slots into the second spot, the rookie is slashing .192/.344/.462 with two home runs while creating runs 32% better than average over his 32 plate appearances, he is somewhat in play in this spot and should not be skipped in Athletics stacks, even if he is further down the lineup. Aledmys Diaz is an inexpensive multi-position option with a professional bat, but he is no one’s idea of a true three-hitter. Diaz hit 12 home runs in 327 plate appearances but created runs four percent worse than average in Houston in 2022, he is unlikely to provide more than that in Oakland. Jesus Aguilar and Jace Peterson could provide sneaky power against Kremer, but neither has major appeal. Between the two, Aguilar has the better mark in our home run model, he is slightly ahead of outfielder Ramon Laureano, who was today’s home run pick from this team. The lousy A’s lineup wraps with Shea Langeliers and Esteury Ruiz, the latter of whom could make for a wraparound play with speed. This is not a team on which to get carried away with stacks tonight.
The Orioles might be a team on which to get carried away with stacks tonight. The team was featured in our Power Index for their matchup against lefty Ken Waldichuk who has an equal 14.7% strikeout rate and 14.7% home run rate, allowing seven of each to a total of 47 batters faced in the young 2023 season. Waldichuk is a decently regarded lefty pitching prospect with a nose for strikeouts, but he is not yet ready for the Show, in another organization he would likely still be in AAA. The rookie hurler made seven starts in a cup of coffee in the Show last year, putting up a 4.26 xFIP with a 22.6% strikeout rate in 34.2 innings. Waldichuk had a 3.42% home run rate and allowed a massive 12.1% barrel rate with a 37.4% hard-hit mark. The starter rocketed up prospect boards on the back of excellent strikeout marks throughout the minor leagues in 2021 and 2022, but he has always allowed some home run power. To this point in 2023, Waldichuk has been a disaster. He has made two starts, covering 8.2 innings while allowing 17 hits and getting charged with 14 earned runs. A ridiculous seven of those 17 hits have been home runs. Waldichuk looks like a major target for the heavily right-handed power-hitting Orioles. The projected lineup sees Austin Hays in the leadoff role, the right-handed Hays hit 16 home runs in 582 plate appearances last season and 22 the year before in 529 tries. Hays costs just $3,800/$2,900 from site to site and could get things started quickly as what could be an under-owned option in MLB DFS tournaments. He is followed by excellent catcher Adley Rutschman, who can easily be deployed on either site. The backstop costs $5,100 on DraftKings, which is probably too cheap with the positional requirement and this matchup, and just $3,600 on FanDuel. Rutschman has hit three home runs and has a .233 ISO with a .395/.490/.628 triple-slash to this point in the season. Ryan Mountcastle has been one of this site’s featured breakout players over the season’s first two weeks and he has in no way disappointed. The slugging first baseman came into the year after posting a contact profile that rivaled the best hitters in the game and, coming into today off of a nine-RBI night, he seems to be right on form. Mountcastle is slashing .289/.320/.711 and creating runs 71% better than average. He has five home runs and a titanic .422 ISO over his first 50 plate appearances. Anthony Santander checks into the middle of the lineup for $4,100/$2,800 from DraftKings to FanDuel. The switch-hitter gets an equal amount of power against both hands for his career, he has a .209 ISO against righties as a lefty hitter and a .202 mark as a right-handed bat against lefties. Overall, Santander’s run creation and triple-slash have been better against southpaws, this is a good spot for him and he is too cheap because he is currently slashing .186/.265/.279 over his first 49 plate appearances, in which he has no home runs. The bat will come around, it makes sense to invest now. Ramon Urias has hit a home run and has a .182 ISO with a 125 WRC+, which is not bad for a player who costs just $3,300/$2,900 with eligibility at second and third base on both sites. Urias hit 16 home runs in 445 plate appearances with a 9.6% barrel rate and a 46.5% hard-hit mark last season, he has under-appreciated pop when he is in the lineup, particularly against a lefty with power issues. Catcher James McCann could see a start against Waldichuk as well, he is a platoon specialist who costs merely $2,200 as a backstop on DraftKings, giving him value if he gets the starting nod. McCann could catch with Rutschman in the DH role, they are not mutually exclusive in this spot and the Orioles would be remiss to exclude the star bat in this matchup. For McCann, the truly reliable years, even as a platoon man, are mostly behind him, but he does have a handful of home runs in each of the last few seasons against lefties, he is a discount play. Lefty Gunnar Henderson is slashing .129/.325/.258 with a 79 WRC+, he could sit against a left-handed starter for a quick reset. Jorge Mateo, meanwhile, is slashing .286/.375/.500 with a 147 WRC+ and six stolen bases. Mateo has added two home runs, but the most important number is the middle of his triple-slash, if Mateo is getting on base at a .375 clip all year he could steal 80 bases. Cedric Mullins II may land in the nine spot, he loses much of his quality against left-handed pitching, but he can be mixed and matched as needed.
Play: Orioles stacks aggressively. Minor shares of Athletics bats.
Update Notes: The Athletics have Brent Rooker in the cleanup spot, he brings a touch of power potential on the right side of the plate at $2,300/$2,000. Kevin Smith is hitting eighth, Carlos Perez ninth, neither adds much appeal. The Orioles are without Anthony Santander, with McCann taking the cleanup spot today, which nudges him upward ever so slightly. Adam Frazier is hitting eighth, Ryan McKenna is in the nine spot, Cedric Mullins is not in the lineup.
Boston Red Sox (+115/4.09) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-125/4.51)
The Red Sox are in Tampa Bay to face the streaking Rays and prized rookie Taj Bradley, who will be making his MLB Debut this evening. The 22-year-old righty arrives ahead of schedule with Zach Eflin headed to the injured list, but he is a very highly-regarded arm in the Rays’ system. Bradley pitched to a 30.9% strikeout rate over 74.1 innings of AA ball last season before dropping to a 21.5% mark in 59 innings at AAA. Over his first seven innings, spread across two starts in which he threw between 50 and 60 pitches each, Bradley had a 26.7% strikeout rate, sitting down eight of the 30 hitters he faced via the strikeout. He also allowed a home run and four earned runs to the minor-league hitters. The Red Sox are notably not a minor-league organization, the team is loaded with power and has professional hitters throughout the batting order, if Bradley is not fully cooked this could be a good spot for bats even in pitcher-friendly Tampa Bay. The Rays’ rookie costs just $4,000 on the DraftKings slate, which puts him on the board for SP2 shares. He should not be expected to throw more than 75 or so pitches, given the management of his innings so far in the minors, but there is an upside at the price if he can find a few strikeouts while he is on the mound. The Red Sox, meanwhile, are looking strong in our power index. The team is easily led by third baseman Rafael Devers, who has hit four home runs with a .326 ISO and a 145 WRC+ so far this season. Devers is in play against anyone, he should have a great opportunity for MLB DFS point creation tonight in the two-hole for Boston. Devers is projected to hit behind lefty Alex Verdugo, who offers an excellent hit tool with mid-range power and speed in the top spot in the lineup. Verdugo is pulling in a 7.09 in our home run model for just $4,700/$3,200. The left-handed outfielder is slashing .318/.362/.455 with a 124 WRC+ so far this season, he is an excellent correlation piece. Justin Turner is at just .205/.360/.231 and his run creation mark sits 22% below average, but Turner still at least gets by on his ability to avoid strikeouts and draw walks. Given the history involved, there is a reason for patience with Turner, even last year he slashed .278/350/.438 with 13 home runs and a 123 WRC+, it is difficult to believe that he is done despite his advanced age. Rookie Masataka Yoshida is slashing .216/.356/.324 with a home run in his first 45 plate appearances this season after signing from Japan’s NPB. Yoshida is drawing a solid home run mark in our model and was today’s Red Sox pick for a long ball. Triston Casas is another prized rookie on this Red Sox team, the first baseman should see the start against a righty, but he is in something of a platoon with Bobby Dalbec getting called back up following an injury to Adam Duvall. Plate appearances late in the game are safer if both sluggers are in the starting lineup, otherwise, they may cannibalize one another’s upside to a degree. For now, Casas is strongly in play for Red Sox lineups. The first baseman is off to a .161/.206/.419 start but he has two home runs and plenty of upside for more. If the multi-positional Dalbec slots into the lineup anywhere, the column favorite is in play at a cheap price and probably no popularity. Christian Arroyo and Enrique Hernandez are always in play late in this lineup, but they have been slow out of the gate this year with a 12 and 34 WRC+ mark respectively. Outfielder Raimel Tapia has made only nine plate appearances, but if he is in the lineup today he is a potential asset given the speed and mid-range power he possesses. The Red Sox are a potential impact stack for MLB DFS tournaments across the industry today.
Boston starter Chris Sale has taken a few early lumps to start the season after suffering devastating freak injuries the past few seasons. Sale threw just three innings in his first start of the year, facing 19 Orioles’ hitters and allowing seven earned runs on three home runs and seven hits while striking out six. The southpaw added two walks to his line in that ugly start and he walked three on his way to allowing three earned runs on four hits including another home run to 23 Tigers hitters in his second start. Sale did manage to strike out seven Detroit hitters and his start was not a total disaster, but he should be better than that against a bad team like the Tigers. With the dynamic and extremely well-constructed Rays on the other side of the diamond tonight, Sale needs to find his form in a hurry. It is difficult to trust the lefty in full in this matchup, the Rays lineup is good at getting on base and they have power and speed to spare, which is why they are 11-0 to start the season. The Rays lineup may be absent Yandy Diaz, who is carrying a day-to-day tag around the industry with shoulder soreness, but who has said he expects to play. Diaz has started the season at .303/.425/.606 with three home runs while creating runs 93% better than average by WRC+. The excellent corner man costs just $4,900/$3,300 with eligibility at first and third base on FanDuel, he is just a first baseman on DraftKings. Diaz should be stacked in Rays lineups, he is an excellent on-base option who is flashing power of his own this season. Wander Franco is growing into the star he is supposed to be, the young shortstop is off to a great start, slashing .311/.354/.667 while creating runs 84% better than average. Franco has four home runs and two stolen bases, he has a .356 ISO and has struck out just 14.6% of the time. With a lefty on the mound, the stack will likely continue with thumper Isaac Paredes, who is a $3,700 third baseman on DraftKings and slots into the hot corner for just $2,900 on FanDuel. Paredes has hit three home runs and created runs 73% better than average while playing in all 11 of the Rays’ games. He has mad 39 excellent plate appearances and is still not priced up on MLB DFS sites despite a .257 ISO and broad regard for his power potential. Having power-and-speed star Randy Arozarena following that group is borderline unfair. Arozarena is in the cleanup spot, he has also played in all 11 of the Rays’ games this season, slashing a fantastic .326/.408/.535 with two home runs and two steals. Arozarena has a .209 ISO and he has created runs 72% better than average, this Rays team is just too good. The projected run of excellent right-handed bats continues with line-drive machine Harold Ramirez, who maintains a very sturdy contact profile and is on the correct side of platoon splits. Ramirez is cheap at $3,300/$2,800, as is Manuel Margot at $3,400/$2,500. The two outfielders can be mixed and matched aggressively through Rays stacks to provide salary and popularity differentiation. Ramirez has created runs 68% better than average over his 26 plate appearances this year while Margot comes in at a 107 WRC+. In 435 plate appearances last year, Ramirez quietly slashed .300/.343/.404 and created runs 19% better than average, while Margot was at .274/.325/.375 with a 106 WRC in his 363 opportunities in 2022. This is an under-appreciated duo for run creation. Vidal Brujan, Christian Bethancourt, and Taylor Walls can be deployed in small amounts for further differentiation, Walls is the best option of the bunch as a correlated scoring piece.
Play: some shares of Taj Bradley at $4,000 as a cheap low-end SP2 on DraftKings, moderate shares of Chris Sale, aggressively stack Rays, stack Red Sox
Update Notes: The confirmed Red Sox lineup is without Masataka Yoshida, and sees a Verdugo-Devers-Turner-Casas configuration that will play well for the rookie Casas, today’s home run pick from the Red Sox. Ramiel Tapia is in the five spot, with column favorite Bobby Dalbec hitting sixth in a key spot in which he provides third base and shortstop (yep, see his Spring starts at the position) eligibility on DraftKings for minimum salary. Dalbec is a $2,000 first baseman on FanDuel, he is in play on both sites. The bottom of the lineup sees Yu Chang instead of Arroyo, Chang is a replacement piece at a minimum salary. The Rays lineup is as expected.
Detroit Tigers (+239/3.25) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-267/5.38)
With the terrible Tigers in town, righty starter Kevin Gausman has a strong chance to put up a very good MLB DFS score on tonight’s slate. There are many paths that lead to Gausman having the highest pitching score of the night overall, but he costs a bundle at $10,100/$11,100 from DraftKings to FanDuel. While he may not be among the absolute pinnacle starters in the game, Gausman is an undeniable talent who posted a 28.3% strikeout rate last year and a 29.3% mark the year before. The righty had a sterling 2.76 xFIP with a 3.35 ERA last year and a 3.28 xFIP with a 2.81 ERA the year before, he has been terrific since finding his form out West and he has made two effective six-inning starts to this point in 2023. Gausman struck out seven hitters in each start, facing the tough Cardinals and then the free-swinging Royals lineups. St. Louis managed three runs, but Gausman is yet to be charged with an earned run this season. He has a 3.33 xFIP and a 3.46 xERA with his 0.00 ERA in the small sample, those marks should stay in about that range or even improve, while the 0.00 will almost certainly change as the season rolls along, if it does not Gausman is severely underpaid. The righty is facing a Tigers projected lineup that struck out 27.5% of the time last season, giving the starter a bump beyond his typically very good strikeout upside. Gausman will no doubt be popular, but the hope is that the hefty salary will keep the crowd somewhat below where it should be, given a few other quality options at a lower cost; Gausman should be aggressively pursued in this matchup. If the desire is to play contrarian and stack Tigers, the focus can be on the top of the lineup, with Akil Baddoo still drawing the eye at $3,000/$2,500. Baddoo offers pop and speed when he is right, he hit 13 home runs and stole 18 bases in 461 plate appearances in 2021 but slipped to just two and nine in 225 opportunities last year. Riley Greene is having a good start to his season, the lefty should not be skipped in Tigers stacks. Over 42 plate appearances, Greene is slashing .256/.310/.385 with a 95 WRC+ which is what passes for “good” on the Tigers. Javier Baez is slashing .111/.179/.111 and has a -18% WRC+, meaning he has been 118% below average in creating runs. Spencer Torkelson and Nick Maton are somewhat better, but neither is a great option against Gausman. The Tigers are better skipped at the plate in all but the most contrarian risk-embracing of MLB DFS tournament lineups.
The same should not be said about the Toronto Blue Jays tonight, the team is chasing the top of the Power Index, with several hitters pulling in good marks in our home run model. Toronto is facing Tigers’ lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, who has made two starts this season. Rodriguez faced 21 Rays hitters over 5.1 innings and struck out five while allowing a home run and three earned runs. In his second start, the southpaw gave up four earned runs on six hits while striking out just one of 22 Astros hitters. The hard-luck lefty will get no quarter in this matchup, he has had a brutal stretch of opponents to start the season, but Rodriguez is not a stranger to misfortune. For his career, Rodriguez has a 4.17 ERA and a 4.10 xFIP while allowing a .306 batting average on balls in play. In recent seasons his ERA to xFIP imbalance has been pronounced, he was at a 4.05/4.43 in a short sample last year and notably a 4.74 ERA with a 3.43 xFIP in 2021 in Boston, a year that saw him allow a .317 BABIP to opposing hitters. The starter costs $5,800 on the DraftKings slate and $7,100 on FanDuel, he is not a strong play or even a particularly good one, but there is a modicum of upside available on the right day at those prices. Rodriguez is, at the very least, not out of our player pool among pitchers, but expectations should be extremely tempered. The Blue Jays’ excellent lineup features George Springer at the top. The outfielder is worth the price on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, he hit 25 home runs last year and 22 the season before, he is off to a .255/.300/.383 start with two home runs and two stolen bases. The mix of speed makes Springer even more valuable for MLB DFS. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is slashing .400/.472/.556 with two home runs while creating runs 93% better than average. He trails only column favorite and frequent recommendation Matt Chapman on the team, the veteran third baseman is off to an outrageous .477/.521/.841 start with three home runs and 15 runs batted in, creating runs 182% better than average over his 48 plate appearances early in the season. Compared to Guerrero’s $5,800/$3,900, Chapman is a major bargain at $4,700 on DraftKings, but he is priced up to $4,400 on the blue site. Bo Bichette hits second in the lineup, ahead of the righty-sluggers on the corners and behind Springer, the four-man group is an amazing stack in any matchup when they are affordable. Bichette slashed .290/.33/.469 with a 129 WRC+ last season and he is slashing .353/.389/.627 with four home runs and a 184 WRC+ to start 2023. Daulton Varsho has a 138 run creation mark, he has hit just one home run but he is carrying a 15.2% walk rate and a .391 on-base percentage into this matchup over his 46 plate appearances, making him a strong mid-lineup correlation piece with known power upside. Varsho is followed by Alejandro Kirk, a strong value at catcher for just $3,600 on DraftKings, as well as Whit Merrifield and Santiago Espinal. Catcher Danny Jansen may also be in the lineup, Jansen comes in at the same price as Kirk and will be the lower-owned option if they both play. Among the group, Kirk is out to the best start with a 90 WRC+, but no one is above average for run creation in the very small 2023 sample.
Play: Kevin Gausman aggressively, Blue Jays stacks, small portions of cheap contrarian Eduardo Rodriguez for large field risk-embracing lineups
Update Notes: Detroit is rolling out a lineup that includes Matt Vierling in the leadoff spot and Maton hitting second, with Greene third and Baez cleaning up. The basic form of the lineup is as expected and they look even more overmatched against Gausman than they did earlier today. The Blue Jays lineup is as expected, they look strong against Rodriguez.
Cincinnati Reds (+237/2.87) @ Atlanta Braves (-265/4.73)
The top projected pitcher in our model is Atlanta’s Spencer Strider who checks in at $9,300 on DraftKings and $10,900 on the FanDuel slate. Strider seems like a no-brainer option at his discounted DraftKings price, he should not be this cheap in a matchup against the Reds when Gausman and the Dodgers ace are priced where they are on this slate. The Atlanta righty is a fantastic strikeout option, he posted a ridiculous 38.3% rate in 131.2 innings over 20 starts as a rookie last year and he has struck out 40% of the 45 hitters he has faced this season. Strider sat down nine Nationals via the strikeout in his first outing, keeping the lousy team to no runs, then yielded three runs but struck out another nine in a game against the much better Padres. This is an excellent option against Cincinnati’s bare-bones lineup, Strider has the potential for a monster MLB DFS total on his strikeout upside, even if he allows a few runs tonight. The righty is not overly susceptible to power, he gave up just a 1.33% home run mark and a 36% hard-hit rate last year while inducing a 15.5% swinging-strike rate and generating a 31.1% CSW%; even if he gets into trouble it is unlikely that Strider will give up the big home run or a bad run total. The Reds do not feature much on the offensive side of the contest. The Cincinnati lineup is confirmed with Jonathan India and TJ Friedl in the top two spots. India created runs five percent below average last year but he was at a 122 WRC+ in 2021, hitting 21 home runs and stealing 12 bases that season. Friedl had a 101 WRC+ with eight homers and seven stolen bases in his 258 plate appearances last year, while fellow lefty Jake Fraley slashed .259/.344/.468 with a .208 ISO and 12 home runs in his 247 opportunities. The “who?” ringing in your head is a common symptom experienced when reading through the Reds lineup this year. Tyler Stephenson adds a somewhat familiar name for those who are required to play catchers in their lineups, and Wil Myers is a known commodity for MLB DFS gamers. Myers is slashing just .194/.310/.222 with no home runs and a 48 WRC+ to start the season, his appeal will come more in Reds home games. Things do not get better for Cincinnati or MLB DFS scoring potential as the lineup continues, with Jason Vosler, Jorge Barrero, Luke Maile, and Will Benson facing Strider in that order.
The Braves will be facing a strikeout artist as well, young righty Hunter Greene posted an excellent 30.9% strikeout rate over his 125.2 innings in 2022. The flamethrower has a fastball that reaches the 99th percentile of the velocity charts and a filthy slider, he is a strikeout artist and he is capable of posting a very strong game, but he is not the fully polished final version of himself just yet. He had a 3.64 xFIP with a 4.44 ERA and induced a terrific 14.5% swinging-strike rate. Warts come for Greene in his home run issues, the long balls came on the back of a healthy 40.1% hard-hit rate allowed on a 20.7-degree average launch angle, Greene allowed a 9.4% barrel rate and an average exit velocity of about 90mph. Against a team like Atlanta, he seems likely to give up a couple of home runs at a minimum. The starter is talented enough to allow dingers and still post a strong score, solo shots will not harm him, but if the Braves work walks and sequence against him before they go deep, Greene could be in trouble. Still, Greene can be rostered at just $6,900/$8,000. While he may be somewhat unlikely to reach the quality start against this opponent, there is plenty of strikeout potential for the rookie, and if he cruises he does not need a gigantic score to pay off the low cost by comparison number on either site. Greene is on the board, but so are the Braves’ bats, in a big way. Atlanta strikes out aggressively, but the team hits for a tremendous amount of power. The Braves are the top team in our Power Index for the day. The Atlanta lineup has been a fixture in this space and others for the entire season to this point, they are looking like a strong play again tonight. Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, and Austin Riley have eight combined home runs already this season, with Acuna adding five stolen bases. Olson leads the way with four home runs and a WRC+ that sits 86% above the league average. Acuna is 49% above average for run creation to this point in the young season, while Riley is the low man at “only” 41% above average. The trio is one of baseball’s best groups, they will be recommended for stacking all season. Beyond that group the projected lineup should be either of the Braves’ excellent catchers, Sean Murphy or Travis d’Arnaud, as well as veteran outfielders Eddie Rosario and Marcell Ozuna. It would not be entirely surprising to see one of the pair rest, Rosario is slashing just .194/.242/.226 with no home runs and a .032 ISO in 33 tries and Ozuna is at .094/.216/.281 but has two home runs and a .188 ISO in his 37 plate appearances, but they are playable for random home run power if they are in the lineup. The duo should at least be lower-owned and they are less expensive, helping to mix and match lineup combinations. Orlando Arcia hit nine home runs in just 234 plate appearances last year, he has a touch of pop in his bat as does Samuel Hilliard, whose lefty bat has been mentioned in this space recently as a cheap and sneaky option late in this popular lineup.
Play: Spencer Strider and Braves stacks aggressively. Shares of Hunter Greene for tournaments.
Update Notes: Murphy is catching for the Braves, the lineup is otherwise as expected.
Kansas City Royals (+152/3.98) @ Texas Rangers (-166/5.13)
The Royals look much better in a matchup against Nathan Eovaldi than they did against Jacob deGrom. The free-swinging team from Kansas City packs a punch and they are facing a righty who pitches at or around a league-average level. Eovaldi made 20 starts last year, posting a 3.46 xFIP with a 3.87 ERA and a 22.4% strikeout rate last year, but he allowed a 10.7% barrel rate with a 44.9% hard-hit mark and a 4.57% home run rate that could play nicely into the Royals’ power base. Eovaldi was much better the season before with just a 1.96% home run rate however, so the wonky stat may have just seen a blip last season on happenstance, a notion that is very sightly supported by the lack of home runs allowed in his 10.2 innings over two starts this season. The small sample is ultimately meaningless, but Eovaldi has two good outings in the books, he struck out six Phillies while allowing three runs and then repeated the strikeout total while giving up two runs to the Cubs in 5.2 innings. Eovaldi could find a good strikeout total and reach a quality start in this one, but he is equally likely to give up a bit of power and some MLB DFS points while falling short on the mound, making this a good both-sided play for tournaments. MJ Melendez is leading off in the Royals’ confirmed lineup. Melendez hit 18 home runs and created runs just one percent below average last year, he is off to a .162/.279/.297 start with a 62 WRC+ this season, but there is reason to believe that the bat will come around. He is followed by Bobby Witt Jr. who is also scuffling to start the season. Over 47 plate appearances in 12 games, Witt is slashing just .186/.255/.326 with a 57 WRC+ though he has managed two home runs and two stolen bases for MLB DFS gamers. Witt hit 20 home runs and stole 30 bases last year, he will come around as well. Vinnie Pasquantino and Sal Perez occupy the middle of the lineup on either side of the plate. Pasquantino is leading the team with a 146 WRC+ this season while slashing .289/.400/.500 with a home run and a .211 ISO. The lefty has been the team’s best hitter by a wide margin in the early part of the year. Perez is slashing .238/.273/.429 with two home runs, but the mashing catcher hit 23 long balls last year and a whopping 48 the season before, he is a known commodity who is too cheap at $2,900 on the blue site. Perez is an interesting pay-to-be contrarian option at $5,000 on DraftKings. Kyle Isbel has a 34 WRC+ over his first eight games and 30 plate appearances, while Michael Massey has disappointed to the tune of a -39 WRC+ mark and a .129/.125/.161 triple-slash. Massey slashed .243/.307/.386 with a .133 ISO but had an excellent 13% barrel rate last year, giving him some hope for a turnaround. Between the pair of lefties is right-handed thumper Franmil Reyes, who hit 14 home runs in 473 plate appearances last year and 30 in 466 the season before. Reyes is sitting at a .261 ISO with two home runs in just 26 plate appearances this season, he is in play for power. $3,400/$2,300 outfielder Edward Olivares can also provide sneaky pop and speed to this lineup, while Nicky Lopez is something of an afterthought beyond stacks. Lopez made 480 plate appearances last year, hitting no home runs and creating runs 43% below average, but he did manage to steal 13 bases.
The Rangers have a fairly loaded lineup, with most of the quality landing in their excellent top-four, but they may be without their best bat tonight when facing veteran righty Brad Keller, who is not a threat on the mound. Keller struck out 16.5% of hitters last year while pitching to a 4.35 xFIP and a 5.09 ERA. He is no longer a specialist in limiting power though he keeps the ball down to a moderate degree and does not allow a huge number of home runs. Last season, Keller gave up a 2.76% home run rate with a 6.7-degree average launch angle against. The Rangers have enough home run hitters to overcome any lingering quality in Keller’s right arm, the starter is not overly playable outside of a few low-expectation SP2 shares. The Rangers typically will have Marcus Semien and Corey Seager in the top two spots, the duo has combined for a pair of home runs this season, but Seager has been the better by far, with a 186 WRC+ to Semien’s below-average 57 mark over his first 11 games, but Seager may be absent tonight after tweaking his leg running the bases last night. Semien hit 26 home runs last year with a 107 WRC+ and will come around, he should be deployed in Rangers stacks against this starter. He can be joined by Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia as a three-man stack with plenty of potential on its own. Lowe has a 104 WRC+ to start the year and Garcia is at 78 but has two home runs and a stolen base on his MLB DFS scoring tally. Josh Jung is gaining trust with a .263/.333/.474 triple-slash while striking out just 21.4% of the time over 42 opportunities but he will have to keep it up, while Josh Smith has struggled to just a .188/.435/.188 but is sitting at a 114 WRC+ on the back of his excellent on-base mark. Smith should fill the second spot in the lineup for Texas tonight, while the team’s bottom half falls off around names like Robbie Grossman, Travis Jankowski, and Bubba Thompson. Catcher Jonah Heim is an interesting potential play on both sites, Heim costs just $3,300 on DraftKings and $2,800 on FanDuel, he hit 16 home runs in 450 plate appearances last year and has two this season with a .241 ISO in his 30 plate appearances.
Play: Royals bats, Rangers bats
Update Notes: The Royals lineup was confirmed at publication time, the Rangers will have Leody Taveras and Sandy Leon in the eight and nine spots, Taveras is moderately interesting with a compelling speed tool.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-169/4.29) @ San Francisco Giants (+154/3.31)
The final game of the night sees the Dodgers in Northern California again for a battle against the Giants. Los Angeles is facing righty Alex Cobb, a veteran who had a 23.9% strikeout rate last year in 149.2 innings over which he pitched to a sharp 2.89 xFIP under a 3.73 ERA. Cobb is cheap for his talent at $7,900/$8,400, but the Dodgers are a brutal matchup for any starter. The righty struck out six Yankees and six Royals in his first two outings but gave up a home run in each game. Cobb can be deployed in a few tournament lineups if desired, he is not bereft of upside on this slate, but the play is quite thin. The odds are with the excellent Dodgers lineup that features Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman up top. The two stars are creating runs at a 153 WRC+ and 164 WRC+ respectively in the early part of the year. Betts has two home runs and is slashing .279/.426/.512 with a .233 ISO while Freeman is slashing .375/.455/.521 with a .146 ISO and one homer. Max Muncy follows on the left side of the plate, the slugger has a .244 ISO and a home run with a 111 WRC+ ahead of J.D. Martinez in the cleanup spot. Martinez is slashing .267/.314/.511 with a 111 WRC+ and a home run to start his Dodgers career, but he is striking out at a 33.3% clip, joining Muncy who is at a 37% rate but also walked in 17.4% of his plate appearances so far. Jason Heyward is at a surprising 144 WRC+ mark with three home runs in just 21 plate appearances in his first eight games, he is in the projected lineup and should be included if he plays. Heyward costs $2,800/$2,400, which makes him a nice discount differentiation piece on this slate. Miguel Vargas, James Outman, Miguel Rojas, and Austin Barnes are also in a version of the projected lineup, any of these options can be mixed and matched, the Dodgers offer extended quality up and down the lineup, and most of their available alternatives can be considered direct replacements, pending the final batting order.
The Giants will be facing lefty Clayton Kershaw, one of the best of his generation. Kershaw struck out nine Diamondbacks and allowed a solo home run in his six-inning first start of the year, which he followed with a four-strikeout performance allowing four runs and two home runs to the same Arizona lineup in start number two. The veteran lefty is very much in play, he is drawing a solid projection against the free-swinging Giants lineup and he should be rostered aggressively at his $9,900/$10,000 salary across the industry. Kershaw made 22 starts and threw 126.1 innings last year, he struck out 27.8% and pitched to a 2.83 xFIP and a 0.94 WHIP, when healthy he is still very very good. The Giants will throw right-handed bats at the starter, the team focuses on platoon rotations as an organizational rule. This should put moderately interesting bats like Thairo Estrada and Wilmer Flores in play. Lefty Michael Confroto should play despite the same-handed matchup, while right-handed J.D. Davis – one of the least respected sluggers in baseball – should see another opportunity. Davis is incredibly under-appreciated. The righty had a 16.2% barrel rate and a 55.6% hard-hit percentage in his 365 plate appearances last year, hitting 12 home runs with a 119 WRC+. Davis has made 32 plate appearances this season, he is slashing .323/.344/.548 with a 135 WRC+ and two home runs. David Villar can add right-handed pop to a Giants lineup, and pieces like Brandon Crawford, Joey Bart, Heliot Ramos, and Bryce Johnson are moderately playable from the bottom of the batting order.
Play: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers bats, contrarian Giants bats, contrarian Alex Cobb in small doses
Update Notes:
Follow on Twitter for daily links to all published content.
