Welcome to premium prospect pitching Tuesday. The MLB DFS slate is absolutely loaded with arms this evening, including a handful of premium prospects who either have their careers underway or are just getting started. The speed at which top arms have been called up to the Show this season is both surprising and good to see, as franchises are playing fewer contractual games and focusing on getting the best players on the mound. A few of the young starters are showing power upside on the other side of their games, as are some of the more established veteran starters, so there is a very good both-sides feel to a number of the options on the big 12-game slate. And we haven’t even mentioned the enticing Coors Field matchup that comes at bargain bin pricing on both sides. This has all the makings of a very high-scoring slate that could go any number of directions, a broad spread of coverage seems like a must tonight on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, if a game has not been filled in simply check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability, but lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Summary – 5/2/23
Cleveland Guardians (+140/3.17) @ New York Yankees (-152/3.90)
The pitching prospect derby that is the 12-game Tuesday night MLB DFS slate gets started in the Bronx, but first a word from our local ace. Yankees starter Gerrit Cole is one of the best pitchers in baseball and he will absolutely have something to say about whether one of these kids can reach the top of the scoreboard this evening. Cole is facing the Guardians who failed to come through for 8.1 innings against Domingo German in what had looked like a decent spot for production on the way in. German was pulled with one out in the ninth in a correct move that was made too late, he should not have started the inning. Reliever Clay Holmes coughed up the lead several batters later and the Yankees lost 3-2. The Guardians do not look to have the same upside on the way in against Cole as they did against the far lower-end German, but they do have minor individual home run upside with Cole’s historical propensity for allowing a few long balls in otherwise strong starts. That has not been the case for the right-handed ace so far this season, Cole is yet to allow a home run in his six starts and 40.2 innings. He has a sparkling 0.84 WHIP with a 1.11 ERA and a 3.48 xFIP that is more telling for overall quality. Cole has a 29.3% strikeout rate with a 12.1% swinging-strike rate and a 29.2% CSW% so far this year, all three marks are down slightly from last season but they remain outstanding. The righty has allowed his usual amount of hard hits so far, he has a 40.4% rate so far this season and was at a 39.9% hard-hit rate over 200.2 innings in 33 starts last year. The dip in strikeouts and swinging strikes will probably course correct in a larger sample, but it is worth at least monitoring in the long term. For tonight’s slate, Cole looks like an outstanding option against a Guardians club that is good at putting the ball in play but has lacked power and their typical overall run creation over the season’s first month. Cole costs $11,500 on both sites, on such a large slate with deep pitching options he may trend toward lower ownership than his upside would suggest, given the high price tag; this would make him a very interesting tournament option. The Guardians are not overly stackable tonight, though a few of their hitters are in play for individual home run upside. Jose Ramirez leads the team with a 10.71 in our home run model, putting the star third baseman over the “magic number” but he costs $5,600/$3,700 which is a minor discount for his talent but perhaps not a great investment when he is facing Gerrit Cole. Ramirez is projected to hit third as usual, slotting in behind Steven Kwan and Amed Rosario, two hitters who are better as correlated scoring options when they are going right, and they are not going quite right. Rosario in particular is struggling significantly, but Kwan has also dipped below average for run creation at a 98 WRC+ in 134 plate appearances, and neither hits for a ton of power. Josh Naylor follows Ramirez with the idea of a power hitter, he has three home runs in 100 plate appearances but just a .124 ISO so far this year. Naylor has barreled the ball at a 9.3% rate and has a 46.7% hard-hit mark for the season, and he is only striking out at a 17% clip, without looking we’re going to guess that his batting average on balls in play is sitting at or below .250… yikes! it’s at .222. Naylor is perhaps an underrated asset to keep in mind for tomorrow and future Guardians games, he is a better hitter than his results thus far. Josh Bell has three home runs and is slashing just .202/.311/.375 with a .173 ISO and a 92 WRC+, he has an 8.45 in our home run model and comes at a cheap price. Naylor has a 9.15 in the home run model and the pair comes for just $7,000 total on DraftKings, as contrarian upside options go that is not all bad. Andres Gimenez hit 17 home runs with a .169 ISO last year but has just a 1.2% barrel rate and a 24.7% hard-hit in 116 plate appearances this season, he is not the home run hitter we are looking for as a one-off proposition. That hitter is probably Mike Zunino, if he is in the lineup the mashing backstop is a play at $4,000/$2,800, though he is probably more likely to strike out 3.5 times as he is to homer off of Cole. Zunino has an 8.50 in our home run model. William Brennan and Myles Straw round out the projected Guardians lineup and are not appealing options.
Good news, Yankees fans, Harrison Bader is back in the lineup. Not the outfielder you were hoping for? Unfortunately, the bad news is that star Aaron Judge was sent to the injured list after the team tap-danced around the issue for 48 hours and cost some of us a lineup spot in weekly leagues. Judge leaves another massive hole in the Yankees lineup, it is not one that Bader can fill, but the outfielder will bring another capable bat to the lineup while shoring up outfield defense and hopefully ensuring that we do not need to see more Aaron Hicks plate appearances anytime soon. The Yankees will be facing one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, Tanner Bibee who was the leading acquisition and highest FAAB bids in season-long leagues around the country (this week’s name will be Bryce Miller, see the Mariners section). Bibee and excellent teammate Logan Allen made their debuts last week and both struck out eight hitters and looked ready for primetime. Allen was very sharp in his second outing on Sunday and Bibee will get his second look in the rotation and should secure his full-time spot this evening. The righty has an arsenal that is highly regarded in Stuff+ metrics, both his slider and changeup graded as above average in his first start and expectations are higher in the long term. Bibee has a true four-pitch mix including the traditional four-seam and curveball in addition to the slider and changeup, he has spectacular command of all four pitches and he generated a 12.1% swinging-strike rate with a terrific 33% CSW% in his first outing. His swinging-strike rate was 13% in his AAA outings this season and 13.9% in AA last year, this is a very talented pitcher facing a flawed lineup with plenty of strikeouts available. Bibee costs just $6,500/$8,400 tonight, to steal one from Dick Vitale, Bibee is one of several discounted Diaper-Dandies tonight. The righty will be facing a Yankees lineup that starts with rookie Anthony Volpe – though Bader may well take this spot when the lineup is confirmed – who is slashing .219/.330/.333 with a .115 ISO and a 93 WRC+ over 112 plate appearances. Volpe is pressing at the plate from a casual observer standpoint, the rookie is probably miscast in the leadoff role despite his excellent speed and a stable .330 on-base percentage, he would do well with some lower-lineup seasoning but the Yankees are stuck for talent right now. Anthony Rizzo leads the team with a 13.27 in our home run model, putting him among the leaders on the slate as a whole. Rizzo is an excellent first base option for $4,600/$3,200, he is rarely popular and he can be deployed as a one-off in lineups needing a premium bat at a discount. Gleyber Torres slots in third, though the order is again potentially in flux with the return of Bader. Torres has four home runs and five stolen bases with a 120 WRC+ over 116 plate appearances but has been sliding downward and is now holding just a 9.6% barrel rate and a 28.9% hard-hit mark for the season. This is a hitter who needs cover from big bats around him in the lineup, he is exposed as the team’s three-hitter but he does come cheap in the role. DJ LeMahieu is another inexpensive option, he still has eligibility at first and third base on DraftKings and adds second base to the mix on FanDuel. LeMahieu has created runs 17% better than average so far this year, he joins Rizzo and Torres as the only Yankees who are above average for run creation. Volpe is seven percent below average, Bader has not played in 2023, and everyone else in the lineup is 43% below average or worse in small samples. Bader is a productive hitter who had five home runs and 17 stolen bases in 313 plate appearances last year, his struggles with injuries are his biggest issue but he can be played at $3,200/$2,800 if looking to the Yankees tonight. Willie Calhoun has done nothing at the plate this year and very little in his tenuous Major League career, naturally the Yankees are projected to have him hitting fifth again tonight. Oswaldo Cabrera, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Oswald Peraza, and Jose Trevino are replacement parts that can be mixed and matched on the low end at the plate. If Kyle Higashioka gets the nod at catcher he is a better option for MLB DFS given his excellent contact profile over a sustained stretch. Higashioka has a 7.81 in our home run model for just $2,600/$2,500.
Play: Gerrit Cole, Tanner Bibee, minor shares of bats if at all, Guardians are better for one-offs, Yankees top-end plus Higashioka would be the focus from New York but this is probably a better spot for pitching on both sides despite the potential for individual power that some hitters are flashing
Update Notes: the Guardians lineup was confirmed as expected. The Yankees confirmed lineup includes the expected players with Trevino instead of Higashioka, and a batting order running Volpe-Torres-Rizzo-LeMahieu-Bader-WhoCares-Worse-NotGood-Defense-AwfulAaronHicks (Calhoun-Cabrera-Trevino-Hicks)
Chicago Cubs (-135/4.60) @ Washington Nationals (+125/3.99)
The Cubs check in with a 4.6-run implied team total in a matchup against righty Trevor Williams who is affordable at $5,200/$7,300, but probably not very good for MLB DFS purposes against these Cubs. Williams has just a 15% strikeout rate over 26.1 innings in five starts. He has pitched to a 4.10 ERA but a 5.13 xFIP with a 1.29 WHIP while inducing just a 7.5% swinging-strike rate and putting up a 22.8% CSW%. Williams is unlikely to post a relevant score even at his very low salary, he is rendered entirely irrelevant on DraftKings by the presence of a potential ace making his debut against the Athletics for $4,000 (we’ll get there). The righty is better against same-handed hitters, he has a 23% strikeout rate in the split for his career, but he struggles against lefties and the Cubs lineup is loaded with talent on both sides of the plate. Chicago’s projected lineup opens with Nico Hoener, who is a solid correlated scoring option with blazing speed and a nose for getting on base. Hoerner is as speedy as his name is annoying to spell multiple times while trying to write quickly. The second baseman stole 20 bases in 517 plate appearances last year while getting on at a .327 clip, in 2021 he had just five steals but did get on at a .382 pace over his 170 opportunities. So far this season he is slashing .323/.361/.427 with 10 steals and a 116 WRC+. While there is nothing to get excited over in his 2.7% barrel rate and 36.3% hard-hit rate for the season that are nearly identical to last year’s contact profile, he does have a pair of home runs on the board in April, putting him slightly ahead of last year’s 10 homer pace. Hoerner is a strong buy at $5,100/$3,700. Dansby Swanson is cheap for his talent level at $4,800/$3,100. The shortstop has always been underrated by the MLB DFS community, he hit 25 home runs and stole 18 bases last year, and went 27/9 in 2021. Swanson has truly done nothing but succeed since arriving as a top prospect, yet he is rarely expensive and almost never too popular. Over 124 plate appearances this year he has a pair of home runs and three stolen bases while slashing .301/.419/.398 and creating runs 32% better than average. The lack of power is not a concern with that level of run production so far, we know Swanson will hit home runs and drive the ball better than this over time and he is underpriced. Ian Happ has a 7.94 in our home run model, he has hit three this season with a .184 ISO in his 118 plate appearances after hitting 17 in 641 opportunities with a .169 ISO last year. Happ was better in 2021 with 25 homers and a .209 ISO in 535 plate appearances, but he is another very underrated bat in this lineup overall. The Cubs seem like the team of misfit toys in that way this season, they have a lineup filled with talent but they are all players who have either struggled or simply just don’t have the broad appeal of other similarly talented stars who are more popular. Happ has a 12.2% barrel rate and he is slashing .306/.415/.490 while creating runs 47% better than average so far this year. Having three players with a current-year on-base percentage averaging .398 ahead of power hitters like Seiya Suzuki, Cody Bellinger, and Patrick Wisdom is a ridiculous luxury that has fueled Chicago’s offense early this season. Suzuki has one home run and a 99 WRC+ but he has only made 70 plate appearances after starting the season hurt, he is too cheap at $4,700/$2,900. Bellinger spent April writing the “Cody Bellinger is back” narrative, now he needs to keep the story going. Over his first 110 plate appearances, the former MVP is slashing .295/.373/.589 with a .294 ISO while creating runs 54% better than average and hitting seven home runs. He has a 10.1% barrel rate for the season but somehow only a 32.9% hard-hit rate, but he has put a lot in play while striking out just 16.4% of the time. The power despite the semi-weak contact is certainly good to see, the on-base percentage and overall triple-slash are very encouraging, but the most telling thing right now is that strikeout rate. Last season, Bellinger struck out 27.3% of the time in 550 plate appearances while being generally terrible. In 2021 he struck out at a 26.9% clip in 350 plate appearances at the beginning of his descent from previous heights. Bellinger won the National League MVP in 2019, but when people discuss his downturn they tend to skip over the very sturdy 2020 season that Bellinger put up in the weird short COVID year. In 56 games he hit 12 home runs with a .216 ISO and he struck out just 17.3% of the time. The year before he won the MVP on the back of a 47 home run 15 stolen base campaign with a .324 ISO while slashing .305/.406/.629. His strikeout rate that season was 16.4%, the same exact rate he has to this point in 2023. Bellinger remains a strong buy at just $4,000/$3,800. Patrick Wisdom has 10 home runs on the board this year, mashing to the tune of a .379 ISO and a 147 WRC+, yet he costs just $4,600/$3,800, this is a disrespected team across MLB DFS, Wisdom has a 9.66 in our home run model against the contact-oriented starter. Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini bring solid veteran bats to the bottom of the lineup. Neither has been great this season but either could deliver any-given-slate upside, with Mancini being the favored between them for power. Hosmer has two home runs this season in 77 plate appearances, Mancini has three in 101. Tucker Barnhart is projected in the nine spot as a $2,100 catcher on both sites, it has been a while since he has been relevant at the plate, he hit seven home runs in 388 tries in 2021 and just one in 308 last season while posting a 63 WRC+.
The Cubs have a young starter of their own on the mound in 25-year-old righty Hayden Wesneski who has nine starts and 55.1 innings under his belt between a cup of coffee last year and his five outings in 2023. So far this season, Wesneski has posted a 15% strikeout rate with a 5.19 xFIP and a 5.24 ERA while allowing a 10.4% barrel rate and a 5.0% home run rate but just a 35.1% hard-hit, he was better in four outings and 33 innings in 2022, posting a 25% strikeout rate and a 3.64 xFIP that created buzz coming into this year. Wesneski is a soft-tosser who brings it at around 93 mph with his fastball and mixes in a sweeper-cutter-sinker mix to middling effect. So far this year he has lost about 10 percentage points of whiff rate on the 56 cutters he has thrown, taking the pitch from 30.6% to 20.7%, and his whiff rate on his four-seamer has halved from 24.2% to just 12.3%. Hitters have mashed both his fastball and sinker to this point in the season as well, posting a .571 slugging percentage with a .664 xSLG against the four-seamer and a .786 slg with a .719 xSLG against the sinker. That mix represents 51% of the pitches that Wesneski has thrown this year. Working in the starter’s favor is a matchup against the Nationals, who can help any starter create MLB DFS points. Wesneski is a value option at $5,300/$6,000 but there are better plays for better prices in better matchups. The Nationals lineup includes baseball luminaries such as Alex Call, Luis “the infielder” Garcia, Keibert Ruiz, Joey Meneses, Jeimer Candelario, and Dominic Smith. Not a single one of those players is above average for run creation this season. The leader for home runs is Candelario with four, which has been the case for about a week now. The leader for run creation is Ruiz, the team’s young catcher, at a WRC+ of 97. The ISO leader is Candelario with a below-average .159. Meneses was the best bat in his small sample of just 240 plate appearances last year, he hit 13 home runs and had a .239 ISO, this year he has one home runs and a .078 ISO. Lane Thomas, CJ Abrams, and Victor Robles – who disappointed everyone who has been following this coverage by finally slipping below average to a 98 WRC+ for the season – round out the projected lineup. We will have more to say about this team when one of them gets their head back above the waterline for run creation for the year, they are a very low-end option for MLB DFS even against a contact-focused soft-tosser who has scuffled this year.
Play: Cubs bats/stacks fairly aggressively
Update Notes: Edwin Rios is in for the Cubs and hitting sixth as another interesting lefty bat, the lineup is as expected but with Hoerner-Swanson-Happ-Bellinger-Suzuki up top and Wisdom hitting eighth. The Nationals lineup is as bad as expected.
Toronto Blue Jays (-127/5.06) @ Boston Red Sox (+118/4.53)
The Red Sox have Tanner Houck starting again tonight as injuries in their rotation linger longer than expected. Houck is probably a better option out of the bullpen, a role in which he excelled last season. This year as a starter the righty has a respectable 4.50 ERA and 3.98 xFIP with a 21.6% strikeout rate, he has been around or slightly below league average overall, but there are definite warts in his 1.35 WHIP and nine percent walk rate. He also has allowed a lot of premium contact with a 40.3% hard-hit rate and 91 mph of average exit velocity. Houck is good at keeping the ball down though, while he is not Framber Valdez who takes the power out of other team’s hands entirely, Houck has limited home runs to just 2.7% in the tiny sample and was at an excellent 1.21% in 60 innings mixed between four starts and relief work last year. He keeps the ball in the yard by limiting launch angle, last year hitters averaged just a 4.5-degree average launch angle with a 4.9% barrel rate, this season the barrel rate has crept up to 7.8% on a 10.4-degree average launch angle, if hitters can elevate the ball there is home run power to be had. Houck is not expensive at $8,100/$8,200 but he is not cheap and the matchup against the Blue Jays is a rough one. The righty is more likely to have a moderately limiting impact on Toronto bats than he is to shut them down entirely or to post a massive MLB DFS score. The 4.53-run implied team total for Toronto seems right on the nose for this one, they are a great team with star-caliber players but there is reason to believe that they are not as likely to smash this pitcher as they would be others. This is a story that is somewhat told in our Power Index, where Blue Jays bats rank dead last in the potential for home runs, which is an odd spot for this team. This is not to say that they are incapable of hitting one or two over the wall against this pitcher, or that they cannot string together runs, they are a strong offense but they come at a high price for the possible power outage. George Springer checks in with just a 4.35 in our home run model, he has bounced along the bottom early this season with three home runs and a .225/.283/.315 triple-slash but he is a star-caliber player and that small sample struggle is not something that has much of an impact on the lower-end projection this evening. Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are stars who can be played against anyone, but they come at very high prices with lower relative numbers to where they would typically land. Guerrero has just a 5.25 in our home run model, this is a player who is regularly above the 10 mark and who hit 80 home runs combined over 2021 and 2022. Bichette has seven home runs on the season, Guerrero has five, and they could easily make us look silly in the first inning with a pair of solo home runs each, they are that talented, but paying a premium for players in lower-end spots than usual is not how we approach MLB DFS slates. Matt Chapman is in the same boat as his teammates, he has been outstanding this season creating runs 115% better than average, and can absolutely be played against this pitcher, but he comes at a premium and expectations need to be set accordingly. Daulton Varsho has struggled but adds a compelling left-handed bat to the mix when looking at Blue Jays lineups. Alejandro Kirk remains affordable at $3,400/$2,800 as a catcher with power-hitting ability. Kirk has a 9.6% barrel rate and a pair of home runs in his 80 plate appearances while creating runs 31% better than average this season. Brandon Belt is another home run-capable left-handed bat at a very cheap price late in the lineup if he plays. Whit Merrifield and Kevin Keirmaier round out the projected lineup, though Cavan Biggio may get the start if the team opts for the weak lefty bat in place of the better right-handed hitter. This is an interesting inflection point for tonight’s slate, if the public gets overweight to Blue Jays hitters the slate could go pear-shaped early.
The Red Sox will be facing Yusei Kikuchi who is having the opposite effect on their home run numbers, the lousy lefty tends to inflate power marks for opposing hitters in every start, tonight will be no exception. Kikuchi has made five starts and thrown 27 innings this year, he has a 3.63 xFIP and a 3.00 ERA but he has allowed a 45.8% hard-hit rate with a 9.7% barrel rate and 91.8 mph of average exit velocity, amounting to a 5.66% home run rate. Last year he was at 5.07% over 100.2 innings in 20 starts, allowing a 47.1% hard-hit rate and a massive 14.8% barrel rate with 91.6 mph of average exit velocity. Things were no better in 2021. This is a pitcher who is absolutely targetable for at least individual home run potential if not full stacks. Alex Verdugo is projected to lead off for Boston despite the same-handed matchup, the lefty is slashing .311/.373/.508 with a .197 ISO and five home runs while creating runs 41% better than average so far this season. As the main functional part in the return for Mookie Betts, Verdugo has done as well as could be expected, he is not a star but he is a good player who comes at a very reasonable $4,200/$3,400 atop this lineup. Justin Turner slides up to the second spot with the lefty starter, Turner is slashing .259/.359/.357 with just a .098 ISO and two home runs in 131 opportunities, but the veteran puts everything in play and has created runs two percent better than average so far. Turner and Verdugo are a rough duo to start the lineup, Verdugo is striking out at just a 12.7% clip and was at 13.4% for all of last year, and Turner is at 12.2% this season and was at 16.7% last year. The Red Sox have rolled out Rob Refsnyder as a three-hitter against lefties several times this year. The career journeyman is a better player against southpaws and he has hit well in the split the past two seasons, but it is important to remember the context. In 2022, Refsnyder made 73 plate appearances against lefties, hitting three home runs while slashing a very good .359/.411/.594 and posting a .234 ISO and a 177 WRC+. In 2021 he slashed .304/.391/.393 with a .089 ISO but a 124 WRC+ in the split, hitting one home run in 64 plate appearances. For his career, Refsnyder has made 402 plate appearances against lefties and 445 against righties. He has seven home runs against lefties and six against righties. Over the full sample, this is a player who is slashing .225/.300/.321 with a .096 ISO and a 73 WRC+ against right-handed pitching and a .257/.358/.375 with a .118 ISO and a 104 WRC+ against lefties. Yes he is slightly better in the split and above average for run creation, and yes he puts the ball in play to some degree with just a 19.7% strikeout rate in the split for his career, but Ted Williams this is not. Refsnyder is wildly miscast as a three-hitter but he can be played in moderate doses for $3,000/$2,600 if building many Boston stacks. Rafael Devers is a star against anyone, he can be rostered as a one-off and is a must in most Red Sox stacks. Devers has 10 home runs and a .322 ISO this season on a 15.4% barrel rate and a 50.5% mark for hard hits. Enrique Hernandez slots a veteran right-handed bat between Devers and Mastaka Yoshida, but he is slashing just .245/.316/.392 and creating runs seven percent worse than average this season. Hernandez is at least cheap and has positional flexibility for $3,800/$2,900. Yoshida slips to the sixth spot in the projected lineup in the same-handed matchup, but may not remain near the top in the final form. In his 32 plate appearances against lefties so far in the Majors, Yoshida is slashing .280/.438/.320 with a 126 WRC+ but he has just a .040 ISO and all four of his home runs have been against righties. Christian Arroyo, Jarren Duran, and Connor Wong round out the projected lineup at cheap prices. Duran has been very productive in a limited 57 plate appearances sample, slashing .404/.421/.692 with a .288 ISO and a 197 WRC+. He has two home runs on the back of a 12.5% barrel rate and 52.5% hard-hit in the very small sample this season.
Play: Red Sox bats/stacks, Blue Jays bats/stacks in moderation, less if they are popular industry-wide
Update Notes: The Toronto lineup was confirmed as expected. Boston has a final third of Arroyo-Wong-Raimel Tapia who is a low-end power and speed option who could be a cheap $2,300/$2,200 wraparound for gamers building lots of Red Sox stacks while also being desperate for salary savings.
Minnesota Twins (-169/5.15) @ Chicago White Sox (+154/3.97)
The power-packed Twins lineup looks to be in a good matchup tonight, with the team pulling a 5.15-run implied total. The matchup looks particularly juicy when one focuses on the current-year output from struggling White Sox starter Michael Kopech. The righty costs $6,300/$6,800 but seems like a stretch on a slate with premium value at pitcher. Kopech was a highly regarded prospect who delivered a strong 2021 mostly out of the bullpen then a middling 2022 in 25 starts and 119.1 innings. Kopech had a massive 36.1% strikeout rate in the hybrid role two years ago but that died on the vine in his starting role last year, he had just a 21.3% strikeout rate in the full outings. This season he has posted a 22.7% strikeout rate over five starts and 25.2 innings but pairing it with a 13.4% walk rate and 93 mph of average exit velocity on a 58.1% hard-hit rate and 23% barrels is wildly unsustainable. Kopech has allowed a massive 6.72% home run rate in the short sample, posting a 7.01 ERA and an xFIP that is not much better relatively, despite being far lower at 5.38. Kopech is a target for Twins bats and is not an appealing option on the mound. Minnesota’s bats are all over the place in pricing algorithms now after the team was dramatically discounted for most of last week. Max Kepler leads off for $3,700/$2,700 as a great bargain-bin buy on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Kepler has three home runs and a 44.9% hard-hit rate in 72 plate appearances that mark a return to form in early returns. Jorge Polanco has also been very productive over his 39 plate appearances since rejoining the team. The toolsy infielder has hit two home runs and is slashing .333/.333/.590 with a .256 ISO and a 156 WRC+ and has been very reliable for power and speed throughout his career. Polanco is affordable but not cheap at $4,700/$3,300. Carlos Correa is cheap at the same $4,700 on DraftKings, and he is still way undervalued on FanDuel at $3,000. The star shortstop is slashing just .202/.283/.351 with a .149 WRC+ and he has not made a great amount of premium contact this season, though his 9.7% barrel rate is telling of upside to come. Correa has been reliably well above average for runs while hitting for upper-midrange power throughout his career, he is a top shortstop option on this slate at the discounted price. Byron Buxton is priced back to more appropriate levels at $5,400/$3,500, but he is arguably still cheap. The outfield superstar has made 108 plate appearances this year, he has seven home runs and a .299 ISO while creating runs 41% better than average. Buxton would be regarded as one of the game’s best players and would be a household name if he were simply able to remain healthy. Trevor Larnach is a capable left-handed bat with power and a good contact profile over his first 113 plate appearances this year. Larnach has a 13.1% barrel rate and he has hit three home runs while creating runs 14% better than average yet he costs just $3,400/$3,000. If you have one spot to fill for $3,000 and you have to roster a player from the Twins, take Correa, he is the far better bat, but Larnach is a good click in Twins stacks and other situations. Jose Miranda is slashing .243/.308/.355 with just a .112 ISO and an 89 WRC+, he has been better for stretches but is not a star by any means, Miranda is a mix-and-match piece. Joey Gallo is looking primed for power, he is sitting at a 7.85 in our home run model and could climb a spot or two in the lineup with a flawed righty on the mound. Gallo has seven home runs and a .473 ISO in 65 plate appearances while barreling 30.2% of his batted-ball events and posting a 72.7% hard-hit rate, he has been covered extensively in this space several times already, either you are on board or you are not. Christian Vazquez and Michael A. Taylor round out the lineup with a pair of moderately productive bats who will always be cheap and very low owned, either could bend a slate with a big day.
The White Sox have been terrible so far this season, but they will at least get a key contributor back tonight with the return of star shortstop Tim Anderson, which should have a stabilizing impact on their lineup. Luis Robert Jr. may or may not be in the lineup, the player was listed as day-to-day after straining a heartstring hamstring “running” to first base on Saturday and was out of the lineup Sunday, though he did pinch hit. The scuffling Chicago team is facing an excellent starter in Minnesota’s Joe Ryan, who could easily go under-owned around the industry at a $10,500/$11,000 salary. Ryan has an outstanding 29.3% strikeout rate with a 3.30 xFIP and a 2.81 ERA in 32 innings and five starts this season. The young right-hander has given up too much premium contact, allowing a 46.3% hard-hit rate with a 90.9 mph average exit velocity on an 18.6-degree average launch angle, but it has not cost him significantly. Ryan has allowed a 3.25% home run rate by limiting barrels to just 4.9% despite the numbers that are otherwise very suggestive of home run upside. Last season, Ryan limited hard hits to 35.4% with an exit velocity of just 88.2 mph, this is likely still small sample noise. Ryan projects as a good option despite the high prices, particularly if he is low-owned in tournaments. Anderson will slot into the White Sox lineup in the leadoff role for $5,100/$3,300, he left off slashing .298/.327/.404 with five stolen bases and a 103 WRC+ in 49 plate appearances so far this year and has been a reliable power and speed option with a strong hit tool over each of the past few seasons. Anderson is a good option if choosing to attack Ryan with bats for some reason. Andrew Benintendi is projected to hit between Anderson and Robert, his hit tool has been largely intact this season but Benintendi has been unable to drive the ball, generating just a 2.5% barrel rate and a 22.8% mark for hard hits so far, which amounts to a .052 ISO. Robert has five home runs but is slashing .213/.254/.407 with an 80 WRC+. Eloy Jimenez is struggling as well, he has made 88 plate appearances and has just two home runs with a .125 ISO and an 81 WRC+, the White Sox have been the third-worst team in baseball for a reason and this group of hitters is a big part of it. Yasmani Grandal and Andrew Vaughn have been above average for run creation with WRC+ marks of 114 and 125 over 93 and 123 plate appearances respectively. The catcher and first baseman are cheap options if going to the White Sox for bats, but they are in a bad matchup and will be hitting in bad spots in a lineup that has underachieved dramatically this season, which dings their individual production. Jake Burger has been similarly good so far this season in an odd-duck breakout. Burger has seven home runs and a 26.2% barrel rate but seems unlikely to sustain such high levels of production. Oscar Colas and Elvis Andrus have both struggled and are limited options at best, no matter how tempted you may be to pair Burger and Colas, there are better options.
Play: Twins bats/stacks, Joe Ryan
Update Notes: Kepler slides down the lineup to six for the Twins pairing with Gallo in the seven spot as a deadly lefty duo, Buxton gains value in the leadoff spot with Polanco-Correa-Larnach-Miranda following. The White Sox lineup is roughly as expected, Anderson returns and leads off, followed by Benintendi-Vaughn-Jimenez-Robert-Gavin Sheets-Grandal-Burger-Andrus. Sheets is another minorly interesting left-handed hitter with more power in theory than in his historical ledger.
Baltimore Orioles (-159/4.79) @ Kansas City Royals (+146/3.81)
The Orioles were a buzzy team early this morning in MLB DFS circles. They check into tonight’s game against Kansas City with a 4.79-run implied team total, facing Ryan Yarbrough, a veteran left-hander who has pitched mostly in a hybrid role the past few seasons. Yarbrough has made one start, his most recent outing, and seven multi-inning relief appearances this year, with a four-inning maximum in each of his last two outings. In the start against Arizona the last time out, the lefty struck out two while allowing an earned run on four hits in 4.0 innings, he should not be expected to go beyond five or produce many MLB DFS points tonight. The Baltimore lineup, on the other hand, could be a source of many MLB DFS points. The excellent young squad has Austin Hays in the projected leadoff role. The outfielder has a 7.78 in our home run model, he has hit four on the season with a robust .226 ISO and a 149 WRC+ and he is slashing .312/.363/.538 in a true breakout over 102 opportunities. Hays has been a productive hitter at this level already, he hit 16 home runs with a 105 WRC+ in 582 opportunities last year and 22 with a 106 in 529 in 2021, but this seems like another step for the still-young hitter. He has a 15.9% barrel rate and a 40.6% hard-hit percentage so far in early returns, if Hays can keep up these levels of production he will have a big year and the Orioles will have another premium bat. Adley Rutschman is an excellent option at catcher, the runner-up for last year’s Rookie of the Year Award is slashing .291/.409/.437 with a 140 WRC+ in 127 plate appearances and he has four home runs. He is one of the better options on the board at his position, even with what should be a fair amount of popularity on a big slate. Ryan Mountcastle has been stuck on six home runs since a very fast start over the season’s first two weeks. He has struggled mightily with his batting average on balls in play and an inability to draw walks, currently his walk rate is just 3.2% though he puts the ball in play regularly with just a 20.8% strikeout rate and he hits it hard with a 14.7% barrel rate and 47.4% hard-hit. Mountcastle has mostly been unlucky, he is priced down at $4,700/$3,900 and makes for a good option in the heart of the Orioles lineup. Anthony Santander has been a weak point so far for this lineup, he has created runs 23% worse than average and his power has been mostly absent with just a pair of home runs and a .149 ISO. Santander has a significant enough track record for power and run production that we can wait out the warmer weather before judging him in full, but it would be nice to get his year going. He checks in for just $4,300/$3,300 which is a good buy for his talent. Ramon Urias is projected to hit fifth ahead of Jorge Mateo, one of “our guys” who is out to a blazing-hot start in 2023. Urias is a good contributor who comes cheap in the infield and hit 16 home runs in 445 plate appearances, he should not be overlooked when going to multiple Orioles stacks, but he has been overshadowed by his teammate at shortstop. Mateo is slashing .347/.395/.667 with a massive .319 ISO while tying for the team lead with six home runs, stealing 10 bases, and creating runs 89% better than average, all in 83 plate appearances. Has Mateo finally put all of his tools into one bag for a season? Only a full sample will tell us sometime later this year, but this is an amazing start for a player who was a highly regarded prospect on his way up and has already been a star for speed and defense while his bat lagged behind. Cedric Mullins may well lead off, but he is projected in the seventh spot in the lineup. The former 30/30 man is a great option in any position in the batting order but he is no bargain at $5,900/$4,000. Mullins has three home runs and 11 stolen bases while creating runs 26% better than average in 2023. Ryan McKenna and Adam Frazier round out the projected lineup.
The Orioles have Tyler Wells taking the mound tonight. Wells has been somewhat better than expected early in 2023, posting a 21.9% strikeout rate with a 4.31 xFIP and a 2.79 ERA after a 23-start campaign in 2022 saw him strike out just 18% of hitters with a 4.60 xFIP and a 4.25 ERA. The righty costs $7,300/$8,800, he is probably more on the board on DraftKings as a mid-range SP2 option than on FanDuel, but this is a very deep pitching slate with a ton of value, he is more likely a stretch even at the fair price against a team with plenty of strikeouts in the lineup. Kansas City will lead off with Bobby Witt Jr. who is slashing .222/.266/.393 with four home runs and seven stolen bases but a 77 WRC+. Witt is priced at $5,000/$3,100, his FanDuel cost is notably low for the production we saw from this player last season, Witt is a good option if one is inclined toward Royals bats on a large slate. The struggling team has not been good for run production this year, only Vinnie Pasquantino is above average with his excellent 139 WRC+ in 121 plate appearances from among the top options in the projected lineup. The first baseman costs $3,700/$3,100, he has five home runs, and is slashing .279/.375/.500 with a .221 ISO this year as the lone productive bat. MJ Melendez and Sal Perez have combined for just five home runs in 213 plate appearances so far this year. Melendez has a .141 ISO and a 60 WRC+, and Perez has climbed to a 99 WRC+ but has just a .158 WRC+ so far. They are both cheap for their talents however, Melendez costs $3,700/$2,500 with catcher and outfield eligibility and Perez is very inexpensive for his power output over time at $4,300/$2,800. Nick Pratto is a well-regarded young hitter who has made just 20 plate appearances this year. In 182 opportunities in 2022 he slashed just .184/.271/.3866 but hit seven home runs with a .203 ISO. Pratto is worthy of consideration if building full stacks of Royals, he is very inexpensive at $2,400/$2,100 and has a strong 7.66 in our home run model. Lefty Kyle Isbel is less appealing in the next spot in the projected lineup, Edward Olivares and Michael Massey are stronger options for MLB DFS production, Olivares has two home runs and three steals with a 124 WRC+ in his 90 plate appearances this year yet still costs just $2,900/$2,500 in the outfield. Nicky Lopez adds another lefty bat to the projected version of the lineup in the ninth spot, but he is not an overly productive hitter for MLB DFS. The Royals are a mid-range stacking option with some appeal if they are projected for low ownership around the industry.
Play: Orioles bats/stacks, Royals bats/stacks, Tyler Wells is not off the board as a value/SP2 option, but there are better plays for less salary on a deep pitching slate.
Update Notes: The Orioles snuck James McCann in for the start against a lefty with a lineup that runs Hays-Rutschman-Mountcastle-Santander-Mateo in an interesting top-five before McCann’s platoon appeal, Gunnar Henderson, Urias and Mullins. The Kansas City lineup is as expected with the addition of Maikel Garcia in the eighth spot in his 2023 debut.
Los Angeles Angels (+116/4.32) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-126/4.79)
The Angels are a leading spot for power in our home run model this afternoon, with lefty Steven Matz taking the mound for the hometown Cardinals. Matz has been lousy for power this year and was mostly targetable for home runs in each of the last few seasons. The lefty is not bad necessarily, but he gets into trouble and can blow up with regularity. So far this year he has a 22.9% strikeout rate with a 4.16 xFIP and a telling 6.23 ERA while allowing an unsustainable 91.1 mph of average exit velocity and a 48.7% hard-hit rate that have yielded a 4.24% home run rate. Matz could find his strikeout stuff and there are plenty of whiffs in the Angels lineup overall, but he is more of a target for bats than he is a strong option on the mound. A few darts at $5,900 on DraftKings are not the craziest notion, we have seen this pitcher succeed in the past, he had a 26.1% strikeout rate in his 48 innings in 10 starts last year, for example. The odds are squarely with Angels hitters in this one though, the stars are flashing massive power numbers and there are several good bats joining them in the lineup. Mike Trout has a 15.54 in our home run model that ties Kyle Schwarber exactly for the slate lead today, and Shohei Ohtani lands not far behind at 13.75. The stars have seven home runs each with Trout sporting a .280 ISO and 170 WRC+ and Ohtani carrying a .248 and 144. They cost $6,300 and $6,500 on DraftKings and $4,200 and $4,300 on FanDuel, but they are affordable with all the value available on the huge 12-game slate. Zach Neto is slated to lead off, he is slashing .250/.350/.327 with a 98 WRC+ that will skyrocket if he keeps getting on base ahead of the team’s pair of stars. Neto is in a great spot to succeed as a correlated scoring option, he has a highly regarded hit tool and on-base acumen and he still costs just $2,700/$2,400, this is an interesting click to help offset the costs of rostering both Ohtani and Trout. Anthony Rendon is similarly value-priced but it is because he has scuffled and lacked power over his 87 plate appearances. We are buyers on Rendon at $4,200/$2,800, particularly if he is lower-owned than most of his teammates. Hunter Renfroe and Brandon Drury are better bats in the heart of the lineup at low prices as well, however, with Drury adding multi-position eligibility to the mix. Renfroe is a deadly power hitter who is tied with Trout and Ohtani for the team lead with seven home runs this season, he has a .259 ISO and a 129 WRC+ and has been excellent all year. Drury struggled early but has come on strong, he now has five home runs and a .234 ISO in 102 plate appearances. Taylor Ward was relegated to the seventh spot in the lineup but he is in play from that position for his ability to get on base and to provide instances of individual power. Ward hit 23 home runs last year while getting on base at a .360 clip and creating runs 37% better than average, he costs just $4,300/$2,800 tonight. Gio Urshela slots into the eighth spot, we would prefer Luis Rengifo. Chad Wallach rounds out the projected lineup as a cheap catcher with limited appeal. Wallach has two early home runs in 20 plate appearances.
An excellent Cardinals lineup is always in play against a lefty, and they will be facing struggling Patrick Sandoval on this slate. The southpaw was good over the past two seasons, he had a 2.91 ERA and 3.67 xFIP last year in 27 starts and posted a 3.62 ERA and 3.79 xFIP in 14 starts in 2021 while landing above average for strikeouts both seasons. In his five starts this year, Sandoval has dropped from last year’s 23.7% strikeout rate to just a 17.7% mark while pitching to a 4.72 xFIP and an inflated 1.29 WHIP on a 10.6% walk rate. He has given up just two home runs on the season and has not been truly bad in any of his outings, but he has not pitched to expectations yet in 2023 despite a soft schedule that has already seen him face the lowly Athletics twice. The Cardinals are the go-to side in this matchup, darts on Sandoval at $7,100 may not be a total mistake on DraftKings, they are less valuable at $9,000 on FanDuel. Tommy Edman typically leads off against left-handed pitching, he is a value play at $4,000/$3,200 who is slashing .267/.351/.477 with a .209 ISO while creating runs 25% better than average with many of his plate appearances coming from the bottom of the lineup this year. Edman has four home runs and three stolen bases, he is a great option at second base or shortstop when going to Cardinals stacks. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado are projected in the next two lineup spots with the team taking a heavily right-handed form against the lefty. Goldschmidt has created runs 53% better than average this year with four home runs and a .204 ISO while barreling the ball at a 14.3% clip and posting a massive 59.3% hard-hit rate. Goldschmidt is too cheap at $5,700/$3,900. Arenado has struggled, the discount from his $4,700/$2,900 averages down the price of pairing the two Cardinals stars, enhancing the value of an already interesting spot. Arenado hit 30 home runs and had a .241 ISO with a 153 WRC+ last year and has been a star for the better part of a decade, he will be fine, take the discount and run with it. Willson Contreras slides behind his brother for value on this slate, because William will be playing at Coors Field tonight as our home run pick. Willson, however, remains a good play in the cleanup role for St. Louis. The catcher has two home runs with a 114 WRC+ so far this season. Dylan Carlson and Tyler O’Neill will hit from the right side against Sandoval as well, they have both been subpar to start the season and Carlson is something of a question mark, though the switch hitter did manage 18 home runs in 619 plate appearances two years ago. O’Neill has struggled with injuries the last year and change, but he is a bigtime power bat who hit 34 home runs in 2021 while adding 15 stolen bases. The outfielder costs just $3,800/$2,600 as a very cheap option in the heart of a good lineup. Paul DeJong and Lars Nootbaar are players on opposite sides of the plate and opposite ends of their careers, but both are interesting names if they are rounding out the Cardinals lineup. Nootbaar will be facing a same-handed pitcher, but he is a good young bat while DeJong is a capable old bat who has a 15.1% barrel rate and a 47.2% hard-hit mark in his 24 plate appearances, hitting two home runs since returning from the injured list. Taylor Motter closes out the lineup as a mix-and-match piece.
Play: Angels bats/stacks, Cardinals bats/stacks
Update Notes: The Angels have both Urshela and Rengifo in the lineup with Ohtani getting a night off and putting a big ding in the team’s overall upside. They still look good, but not as good, naturally. The Cardinals lineup has Contreras hitting between Goldschmidt and Arenado and is otherwise as-expected.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-154/4.47) @ Texas Rangers (+141/3.62)
Yet another interesting matchup sees the frisky Diamondbacks in Texas to face the Rangers and righty Jon Gray, who has struggled in five starts this season. Gray had a very good 2022, posting a 25.7% strikeout rate with a 3.46 xFIP and a 3.96 ERA in 127.1 innings, but this year he has just a 16% strikeout rate with a 5.40 xFIP and a 3.91 ERA. Gray has been good at limiting hard hits with a 29.7% rate so far this year, he was at a 38% rate in 2022 and a 37.8% in 2021 however, so this does not seem like a sustainable attribute, and he has already yielded a 3.77% home run rate despite just 87 mph of average exit velocity. The lack of strikeouts is a bit odd, he still has a 10.1% swinging-strike rate which is down from last year’s 11.6%, and a 27.7% CSW% that dipped from 29.3%. Gray costs $8,700/$8,000 which seems a bit high on a deep slate for a struggling pitcher who has lacked for strikeouts. Gray is not a compelling option on this slate. The Diamondbacks are a mid-range play, they are not flashing a ton of power against Gray but they are cheap and could be a functional value-stacking option. Josh Rojas is projected to lead off for $5,400/$2,700, the FanDuel price is too cheap overall, but Rojas has been scuffling at just 90 WRC+ and a .092 ISO. Ketel Marte costs $5,200/$3,000, continuing the trend of value on FanDuel that will get started on DraftKings with the next hitter in the projected lineup. Marte has been good this year, he has a 99 WRC+ but a .202 ISO with three home runs while slashing .253/.299/.455. Pavin Smith is a cheap option on both sites at $3,400/$3,000 with first base and outfield eligibility. Smith is slashing .279/404/.488 with a .209 ISO and a 143 WRC+ over 52 plate appearances. The formerly top-100 prospect has a decent bat for the price, he has a 50% hard-hit rate in the tiny sample this season. Christian Walker and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. are a prime pairing in the heart of the order. Walker has four home runs and a .178 ISO on his way back to being a productive power hitter, he will be more expensive than $3,800/$3,000 this time next week. Gurriel is cheap at $4,200/$2,800, though he has been 14% below average in creating runs over 105 plate appearances while Walker is still 13% below average in his 111 plate appearances. Alek Thomas has made 93 plate appearances and is slashing .193/.269/.337 with a .145 ISO and a pair of home runs while creating runs 37% worse than average, the cheap outfielder can be skipped when creating stacks but it is worth noting that he has a 9.5% barrel rate and 47.6% hard-hit despite the struggles, he will be cheap and sneaky for those willing to roll the dice. Gabriel Moreno, Dominic Fletcher, and Geraldo Perdomo round out the lineup with Perdomo having by far the most relevant season – though Moreno is an effective cheap catcher with one home run but an 88 WRC+. Perdomo is slashing .383/.456/.617 with a pair of home runs and a .233 ISO while creating runs 88% better than average in an extended streak over 71 plate appearances that is getting more real by the day.
And now, Zac Gallen. The season’s best pitcher so far has made six starts and thrown 37.2 innings of lights-out baseball. Gallen has a 2.15 ERA and a 1.42% home run rate for the season, he is on a run of four starts without allowing an earned run and he has a 2.26 xFIP and a 0.77 WHIP with a 13.9% swinging-strike rate and 33% CSW% for the season. Gallen faced 23 Royals over 6.1 innings in his last start, striking out 12 and allowing four hits. He struck out 11 Padres over seven two-hit innings and seven Marlins in 6.2 two-hit innings the two starts prior, and in the first start of his incredible scoreless-innings run he struck out 11 Brewers over seven three-hit innings. Somehow, this pitcher still costs just $10,000 on DraftKings. He is an $11,800 option as the highest-priced starter on FanDuel and he is not off the board against the aggressive Rangers. Gallen is a great option for the price on DraftKings, he projects among our top starters on the slate and could go under-owned despite the massive talent and excellent season-to-date numbers. The Rangers are carrying just a 3.62-run implied team total tonight, and the team is not priced down in the spot, making them a tough ask for MLB DFS purposes. Gamers looking to Rangers hitters would do well to focus on the top end with options including Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe, Adolis Garcia, and Josh Jung who create a strong power core but could add 8-10 strikeouts to Gallen’s total on their own. Semien has five home runs and a 124 WRC+; Travis Jankowski is a correlation and speed option hitting second, Lowe has four home runs, a .202 ISO, and a 122 WRC+; Garcia has eight home runs but just one stolen base after going 27/25 last year, he is creating runs 32% better than average with a .267 ISO though, so there is nothing to worry about with the lack of stolen bases, and Jung is slashing .270/.324/.500 with a .230 ISO and a 128 WRC+. Everyone in the projected lineup with the exception of Leody Taveras is above average for run creation this year. Jonah Heim has a bit of home run upside as a catcher, he has created runs 69% better than average in 88 plate appearances this year. Robbie Grossman and Ezequiel Duran can create MLB DFS points with midrange power upside and speed, they are correlation plays from late in the lineup and could be cheap one-offs in a better matchup. Against Gallen, this is not a great spot for Rangers bats at all.
Play: Zac Gallen, minor shares of Diamondbacks bats for value shares, particularly on FanDuel where everyone is cheap.
Update Notes: the Diamondbacks have Dominic Fletcher hitting sixth between Gurriel and Moreno, he costs the minimum on both sites but is a low-end option and a non-prospect. The Rangers have Bubba Thompson hitting ninth with Grossman and Duran in the two spots ahead of him, Taveras is out of the lineup.
San Francisco Giants (+166/3.66) @ Houston Astros (-181/4.94)
The free-swinging Giants are facing Hunter Brown, yet another rookie hurler who is getting a full-time role this season. Brown broke camp with the Astros, unlike some of his just-called-up peers, he has made five starts and thrown 30.1 successful innings so far. The righty has a 26.7% strikeout rate with a 3.62 xFIP and a 2.37 ERA in the small sample and he has induced an 11.7% swinging-strike rate at the Major League level this year. Brown was a top-ranked pitching prospect and he has been delivering since the outset, he is yet to allow a home run this season and has given up just 88.8 mph of average exit velocity and a four percent barrel rate. Against these Giants, Brown is in a strong spot to succeed, he could find a big pool of strikeouts for just $9,600 on DraftKings and he is a good option at $10,200 on FanDuel, where he will probably be lower-owned because of the price. The Giants have a fair amount of swing-and-miss in the lineup but they are also flashing some upside for power in our home run model. LaMonte Wade Jr. is pulling in an 8.64 for power at just $3,400/$2,800, he has six home runs and a .315 ISO in his 98 plate appearances so far with a 177 WRC+, Wade is an underappreciated option when going to Giants stacks and he offers multi-position eligibility for the DraftKings price. Thairo Estrada costs $6,000/$3,700 which seems odd on the surface but he has been very good this year and was good all of last season. Estrada has four home runs and eight stolen bases while creating runs 43% better than average this year, though there may be better ways to spend salary than rostering this hitter at his price against this pitcher. Joc Pederson has a strong 12.38 in our home run model, placing him among the leaders on the slate overall. The lefty masher has three home runs this season with a .255 ISO, he is followed by righty Mitch Haniger who has two home runs of his own in just 23 plate appearances. The outfielder is never healthy, but when he is in the lineup he is highly productive, he hit 39 home runs in 2021. Michael Conforto and JD Davis are strong hitters in the five and six spots in the projected lineup, Conforto is still searching for his form but he has four home runs despite scuffling at .195/.305/.354 and Davis has mashed with six home runs in 97 plate appearances while slashing .291/.361/.523 with a .233 ISO and a 139 WRC+. Blake Sabol, Joey Bart, and Brett Wisely round out the projected lineup that is better in its top two-thirds.
The Astros are facing Anthony DeSclafani which should mostly take the league-average(ish) pitcher off the board at $10,000 on the blue site. He is in play at $7,900 on DraftKings but, again, this is an incredibly deep pitching slate. DeSclafani has a 3.11 xFIP and a sharp 2.70 ERA with a 23.1% strikeout rate in 30 innings this season. The righty has induced a 10.2% swinging-strike rate and has just a 0.93 WHIP this year, he has been very good but it is tough to see a slate-winning score for this pitcher against this lineup. The Astros are not showing major power upside, but the team is excellent for run creation and they are always in play. Mauricio Dubon leads off at a fair price of $3,700/$2,800 for a player slashing .317/.340/.406 this season. Dubon is a good correlated scoring play along with options like struggling veteran Alex Bregman and superstar Yordan Alvarez who has six home runs and a .265 ISO this year. Alvarez has barreled the ball at a 17.5% clip with a 47.4% hard-hit rate this year, which is down from his spectacular production last season but still excellent. Alvarez is always worth his hefty salary, but with so many options on the board, he may not be the wisest way to spend the money in this matchup. Jose Abreu has been bad to start this year, he has created runs 53% worse than average and has no home runs, which ahs the former star priced at just $3,500/$2,500. If going to Astros stacks, Abreu is an option on most slates. Kyle Tucker is a star who has five home runs on the board with a 135 ISO and he has barely gotten in gear this year. Tucker costs $5,800/$3,500, he is too cheap on FanDuel, which makes him a somewhat compelling one-off play that is quite a bit cheaper than Alvarez. Jeremy Pena is a good shortstop play on most slates, when going to Astros stacks in the not-great matchup he can be used positionally, he has six home runs and six stolen bases in a productive start to the year. Corey Julks, Jake Meyers, and Martin Maldonado close out the bottom third of the lineup.
Play: Hunter Brown, low-mid shares of Astros bats/stacks, minor shares of Giants bats if low-owned
Update Notes: San Francisco’s confirmed lineup does not include Haniger, which is a ding to the upside. Wilmer Flores slots into the fifth spot in the lineup, Sabol-Bart-Wisely-and Cal Stevenson follow with JD Davis also taking a seat. This should be an upgrade to Hunter Brown with two of the Giants’ best hitters out of the lineup. The Astros lineup looks as projected with the exception of Yainer Diaz in at catcher instead of Maldonado and hitting eighth with Meyers ninth.
Milwaukee Brewers (-162/6.23) @ Colorado Rockies (+149/4.90)
The Brewers are likely to be a very popular option in Coors Field tonight. The team will be facing righty Ryan Feltner in the game with the highest total on the board in Vegas and they have several premium power hitters lurking in the lineup. Feltner is a low-end starter at the back of the rotation, he made 19 starts last year and had a 4.43 xFIP under a 5.83 ERA in 97.1 innings. The righty struck out just 19.6% and allowed a 42.8% hard-hit rate with a 3.74% home run rate on 89.7 mph of average exit velocity last season, this year he has given up just 87.3 mph of average exit velocity and allowed only a 33.3% hard-hit rate in a tiny 25-inning sample over five starts. Feltner has a 4.57 xFIP despite the good contact numbers, his ERA sits at 4.68 but his strikeout rate has also climbed to 24.5%. Feltner’s 2023 would be better so far were it not for a 12.7% walk rate and 1.48 WHIP, putting extra base runners on in this ballpark is not a recipe for success. The projected lineup for the Brewers sees lefties Christian Yelich and Jesse Winker in the top two spots, though both outfielders have struggled to this point in the season. Yelich has an 83 WRC+ with just a .117 ISO and three home runs in his 117 plate appearances. Winker has been worse in his 63 opportunities, hitting zero home runs and posting a .226/.333/.283 triple-slash with a .057 ISO and a 77 WRC+. Yelich is the better option between the two in an overall sense, the former MVP still hits everything hard, he has a 53.6% hard-hit rate for the season but just a 4.3% barrel rate, getting the ball in the air continues to be his issue at the plate. Winker has simply struggled to put things together in the tiny sample but he should hit over time in this lineup. The outfielders have a 9.27 and 9.47 respectively in the home run model, Winker is the slightly better option for a long ball. Right-handed Willy Adames has experienced little of the struggles of his teammates, he has five home runs on the board this year and is sitting 13% above average for run creation. The shortstop had a .220 ISO and hit 31 home runs last year and was at a .219 with 25 the year before, so there has been a minor dip in power with his ISO at just .190, but that is likely attributable to a sample size of just 121 plate appearances so far. Adames has a 12.7% barrel rate this year, nearly identical to last seasons’s 13% but his hard-hit mark is down from 43.4% to 34.7% so far, explaining the dip in ISO. At $5,900/$3,700, Adames is arguably too cheap for a Coors game. Rowdy Tellez has an 11.1% barrel rate and a 44.4% hard-hit this season and he is pulling in a team-leading 14.21 in our home run model, ranking him third on the entire slate for today. Tellez has eight home runs in 99 plate appearances this season, posting a .306 ISO with a 130 WRC+. In 599 plate appearances last year he hit 35 homers with a .242 ISO, there is major upside in the big lefty bat for just $4,800/$3,800 tonight. William Contreras is an excellent option at catcher, he is slashing .295/.382/.397 this year and he has created runs 17% better than average. While the power has been mostly out – Contreras has one home run in 89 opportunities and just a .103 ISO so far – the backstop did hit 20 home runs in 376 plate appearances last year with a .228 ISO. For the price, ballpark, matchup, and skillset, Contreras is likely to be the most popular catcher on tonight’s slate. Brian Anderson slots in with third base and outfield eligibility on both sites for $4,100/$3,800 with the blue site obviously holding him in higher esteem. Anderson has had a good start at .255/.330/.459 with a .204 ISO and a 112 WRC+, he has five home runs on the board and has made good contact so far this season. Anderson has a 7.05 in our home run model however, it is worth noting that he is the dip-point after a run of players rated no lower than Yelich’s 9.27. The home run rating drops to just 4.00 for Brice Turang, who has two on the board this season but just a .107 ISO and a 58 WRC+. Turang has a 3.9% barrel rate and a 33.3% hard-hit, the low rating is probably inflated by the environmental factors, he is not much of a home run hitter right now. Mike Brosseau and Joey Weimer round out the projected lineup with a 6.55 and 6.67 in our home run model. Brosseau has three on the season with a .224 ISO but does more of his damage against left-handed pitching, Weimer has a pair of home runs and a .143 ISO but just an 86 WRC+ and a low-end contact profile. The Brewers lineup is in play from top to bottom in any form in this ballpark and matchup of course, they will be a popular but probably worthwhile MLB DFS option tonight.
The Rockies are always lower-owned than their opponents in home games, but against Freddy Peralta it may be warranted. The righty has a 25.6% strikeout rate and a 4.05 xFIP this season and he is spectacular at limiting hard hits and premium contact. Peralta had a 3.5% barrel rate and allowed just a 31.3% hard-hit rate with a 1.89% home run rate last year, in 2021 he was at a 31.1% hard-hit rate and a six percent barrel rate. It is tough to put Peralta in play at Coors Field, even against a bad lineup, but in large field tournaments on a smaller slate he would not be out of play at $8,800/$9,900, it is just too thin for a slate of this size. The impact Peralta is likely to have is in limiting upside for the already lousy Rockies. Anyone going to this team should focus on the top of the lineup, with options including Charlie Blackmon, Kris Bryant, CJ Cron, Ryan McMahon, and from later in the batting order, Randal Grichuk and catcher Elias Diaz. This is a flawed team but the ballpark is strongly in favor of hitters, the tiebreaker is the excellent pitcher with a propensity for limiting hard hits on the other side, the Rockies are a low-end option even at Coors Field (cue the 12-run outburst).
Play: Brewers bats/stacks aggressively, minor shares of limited upside Rockies bats, Freddy Peralta for the very bold but there are better options.
Update Notes: Profar leads off ahead of Bryant-McMahon-Cron-Diaz-Grichuk with Blackmon out of the lineup for the low-end Rockies. Harold Castro, Brenton Doyle, and Tovar round out the final third, Doyle is the most interesting bat in the group.
Seattle Mariners (-133/4.31) @ Oakland Athletics (+123/3.77)
A pitching duel that we may see again and again for years to come takes shape for the first time in the Majors in Oakland tonight, with stud starting pitching prospects Bryce Miller and Mason Miller, no relation, taking the mound for their respective clubs. The Mariners are the top-ranked team for individual home run upside today leading both the full lineup and top-6 ratings. Oakland’s Miller has made two starts and thrown 8.1 innings so far in his MLB career. Miller has a ridiculous fastball that sits at 99 and tops out around 105 mph and a devastating slider that has generated a 33% whiff rate in the small sample. Miller has three pitches that have graded out as among the best in baseball by Stuff+ already, he has a well-above-average arsenal but that is only one piece of the pitching puzzle. Miller has succeeded in striking out hitters at this level so far, he has a 30.6% strikeout rate over the microscopic sample, pitching to a 6.48 ERA but a 3.55 xFIP with an 11.4% swinging-strike rate. He has just a 25.7% CSW% which is quite low with a swing-and-miss number that high, and he has allowed a significant amount of premium contact when hitters do connect. Miller’s hard-hit rate allowed is sitting at 63.6% with 93.7 mph of average exit velocity on a 22-degree average launch angle. Somehow, that has not yielded a home run, which seems like a simple matter of time. While this is not a great park for home run hitting, the Mariners have a lineup filled with capable bats from top to bottom, Miller may well rack up strikeouts and post a slate-bending score in this outing, he costs just $5,700/$7,500 but it is easy to envision him allowing a home run or two along the way. Julio Rodriguez is slotted into the top spot in the projected Mariners lineup. The star did not have as robust an April as everyone may have been expecting, but he was still productive at .239/.301/.442 with a .204 ISO and a 110 WRC+. Rodriguez has five home runs and six stolen bases on the season with a 10.1% barrel rate and a 45.6% hard-hit. The contact numbers are both down a tick from last year, which has been a bit of Rodriguez’s problem so far this season, but it seems very likely that the stud outfielder will round into form sooner than later, he is a good option for $5,700/$3,600 and he has a team-leading 13.86 in our home run model. Ty France has one home run on the board this season and his hit tool has failed him in early going, but he is still above average for run creation with a 106 WRC+ on the back of his .339 on-base percentage in 118 plate appearances. France is slashing just .245/.339/.363 with a .118 ISO, last season he was at .276/.340/.437 with a .162 ISO but 20 home runs and a 27 % better than average mark for run creation. Jarred Kelenic had the best month of his young career in April, slashing .308/.366/.615 with a titanic .308 ISO and seven home runs. The outfielder is projected to hit third and he has a 10.59 in the home run model tonight. Eugenio Suarez is stuck at two home runs and now the hit tool is returning to its usual form, the third baseman is down to .243/.332/.336 with a measly .093 ISO and has slipped six percent below the league average for run creation. This has been a miserable stretch for Suarez, he has an 8.3% barrel rate and 43.1% hard-hit mark at least, but if he is not hitting for power it is difficult to overcome a 30% strikeout rate and be a productive hitter. Suarez mashed 31 long balls each of the last two seasons, he is an established power bat so this is probably still just a blip, but it is one that warrants concern after 121 plate appearances. Teoscar Hernandez costs just $4,000/$2,900, pairing him with Suarez’s discounted $3,700/$2,700 seems like a great way to potentially buy a pair of home runs or correlated scoring… or six to seven strikeouts. Hernandez is another aggressive free-swinger in this lineup, he has a 32.5% current-year strikeout rate and has walked just 1.7% of the time this season. The outfielder is slashing .209/.248/.427 but he has hit the ball hard when he has made contact, posting a .218 ISO and hitting seven home runs. Hernandez has a 12.59 in the home run model today. Cal Raleigh has five homers on the season to go with a beefy .256 ISO and a 123 WRC+ in his 96 opportunities. The backstop hit 27 home runs in 415 plate appearances last year and has a stout 14.5% barrel rate with a 38.2% hard-hit. Raleigh is a cheap catcher option at just $4,100/$3,000. Taylor Trammell jumped back into this lineup in style the other night, hitting a min-price home run in his first plate appearance. Trammell costs just $2,500/$2,400 and should be low-owned in the bottom third of the lineup. The 25-year-old has yet to stick full-time at the Major League level, but he was a decently well-regarded mid-range power and speed prospect who cracked multiple top-100 lists not too long ago. Trammell is sneaky with a 7.52 in our home run model. JP Crawford and Kolten Wong are not incapable at the bottom of the lineup, Wong is the better overall option for MLB DFS but Crawford has the lone home run between the two this year. Wong hit 15 homers last year and stole 17 bases, he is almost always low-owned and he is cheap at $2,800/$2,300, but he has scuffled to just a .171/.263/.186 with a .014 ISO and a 37 WRC+ in his 80 plate appearances in 2023. Crawford has a 3.21 in the home run model, Wong looks better at 5.40. It is important to reiterate that Mason Miller is a very good young pitcher with elite strikeout stuff and he is facing a lineup that has a ton of strikeouts in it. The average strikeout rate for the projected Mariners lineup this year is 25.8% if we leave out the 40% Trammell posted in just five plate appearances. If we also cut Ty France’s fantastic 13.6% strikeout rate the team average for the remaining seven hitters leaps to 27.5%. While the Mariners may hit a home run or two, Miller could be an important piece of the MLB DFS puzzle in this one as well, and he could punch enough holes in the Mariners’ lineup to severely limit the upside of full stacks tonight.
And now we arrive at the DraftKings value play du jour, $4,000 Bryce Miller, who is a $7,600 option against the lousy Athletics on FanDuel as well. Miller is the next man up on the list of premium pitching prospects this season. Literally, he was the third name after Bibee and Logan Allen on our watchlist that was supposed to be in play for an upcoming minor league draft in June. The aggressive promotions leaguewide have added a fun narrative to the early part of this season, Miller is no exception, he has dynamite stuff and significant potential for MLB DFS scoring at the outrageous discount tonight. The FanDuel price is very good, the DraftKings price is an absolute smash spot, Miller should be crushingly popular on DraftKings at that cost against this opponent. Miller ascended from A-ball through AA directly to the Majors, striking out 30% of opposing hitters along the way. The righty has a superb fastball with a strong arsenal he is in place to tear through the Athletics with a strong debut tonight. Oakland’s lineup includes a few hitters who are above average for run creation in fewer than 100 plate appearances and two hitters who have been interesting for home runs to this point in the season, but overall they are not a talented bunch. Brent Rooker has hit nine home runs and has a 238 WRC+ in his 86 plate appearances while striking out just 18.6% of the time, it still seems unsustainable given the hitters aggressive whiff rate and the non-existence of this type of performance in his track record. Esteury Ruiz and Ryan Noda land above Rooker as moderately playable pieces for cheap prices. Shea Langeliers has six home runs with a .244 ISO and is a viable cheap catcher in many matchups. Conner Capel, Ramon Laureano, Jace Peterson, Kevin Smith, and Tony Kemp are options of diminishing quality late in the lineup.
Play: Mason Miller, Bryce Miller aggressively on DraftKings and at a good clip on FanDuel, Mariners bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Cincinnati Reds (+181/3.56) @ San Diego Padres (-199/5.05)
As if we did not have enough premium young pitchers on the slate by now, the Reds add Graham Ashcraft to the mix. The righty has not been great this season, pitching to a 4.56 xFIP but a 2.10 ERA and just a 19.5% strikeout rate. Ashcraft is a well-thought-of young starter, but he posted just a 15.3% strikeout rate last year with a 4.09 xFIP and a 4.89 ERA. He was good at limiting power with a 2.37% home run rate last year on a 4.8% barrel rate with 36.3% hard hits and an 86.9 mph average exit velocity against. With a tough opponent and a lack of strikeout upside, Ashcraft does not seem like a great option for $9,400/$9,800 tonight. Padres bats are always in play in the top half of the lineup and the rising tide lifts later bats in unpredictably annoying ways in most slates. Superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. leads off for $6,200/$3,700 and still has shortstop eligibility on the FanDuel slate. Tatis is slashing .304/.333/.478 with a 122 WRC+ and already has a pair of home runs in his 48 plate appearances. Manny Machado and Juan Soto are a pair of struggling stars who will get right sooner than later. Soto has created runs 14% better than average despite his struggles at the plate, he draws walks at a fantastic 21.4% clip and gets on base at a .382 pace despite a weak hit tool so far this year. Soto has one of the best eyes in baseball at the plate, he will hit in short order. Machado will also come around and the duo is inexpensive for their talent, helping afford full stacks of Padres. Xander Bogaerts is a star who slots in at shortstop on both sites, as mentioned yesterday an interesting approach to lineups on FanDuel is to roster Bogaerts and Soto at shortstop and in the outfield with a third premium shortstop-eligible player in the utility role, which would be an unlikely construction for an optimizer. Matt Carpenter has been productive but we still question the reality of his performance both in a short sample last year and early this year. Carpenter was a highly productive hitter who had been out of the game for some time before roaring back with 15 home runs in 154 plate appearances last year. He has three home runs and a .273 ISO with a 20.5% barrel rate this season and does know how to golf a ball over the wall for a cheap price. Jake Cronenworth is a viable bat for $4,000/$2,900 with multi-position eligibility on FanDuel. He has created runs one percent behind the curve this year but has a productive .200 ISO and three homers in his 120 plate appearances. Ha-Seong Kim, Trent Grisham, and Austin Nola are mix-and-match pieces at the bottom of the lineup, Grisham is perhaps a bit more than that and has created runs 15% better than average with a .220 ISO in 118 opportunities this season.
The Reds will be facing limited Michael Wacha tonight. The right-handed veteran has a 20.4% strikeout rate and a 4.67 xFIP with a 6.75 ERA this year and he has allowed some power to this point in the season. Even a bad lineup like the Reds may be able to post a crooked number against this version of the formerly league-average righty. Wacha has allowed a 12% barrel rate with a 37.3% hard-hit and 89.2 mph of average exit velocity this season, the uptick in barrels and his average launch angle allowed are yet to lead to a major uptick in home runs, but he has allowed a high 3.54% rate already and more seem to be inbound. Of course, the Reds active roster has a 95 WRC+ and just a .113 ISO against right-handed pitching this season, on a smaller slate Wacha would be somewhat in play at $7,500/$7,000, he projects in the mid-range because of the matchup, but the play thins out when cast against the slate’s overall quality. Viable Reds bats who are showing upside in our home run model include Jonathan India, TJ Friedl, Spencer Steer, and Jake Fraley, with catcher Tyler Stephenson as another playable name in the heart of the lineup. Steer has two home runs and a .147 ISO this season, India has one with a .105, and Feidl has two with a .128, this is not a power-hitting bunch. Fraley has the top mark in the home run model at 9.03, he has two on the season with a .128 ISO and just a 26.7% hard-hit rate. Stephenson has yet to hit a home run but is a reasonably talented catcher for his asking price and popularity. The lineup trails off from this point but includes Henry Ramos, wh has been productive with a 133 WRC+ in his 30 plate appearances, Nick Senzel who has been at a 134 WRC+ in 65 opportunities with three home runs and two stolen bases in what would be an interesting post-post-post-hype resurgence. Jose Barrero and Curt Casali are not overly relevant.
Play: mid-range stacks/bats for the Padres, minor low-end Reds shares, maybe some value Wacha
Update Notes: the Reds lineup is as expected through the first two-thirds with Kevin Newman in for Barrero in the eighth spot and Casali closing things out.
Philadelphia Phillies (+137/3.65) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-149/4.44)
The Phillies are flashing some unexpected upside for power on tonight’s slate and part of it has to do with the fantastic news that Bryce Harper will be returning to the lineup well ahead of the originally anticipated schedule. While this has been in the cards for a while now, it is great to see Harper fulfill what had been shaping up to be an incredibly fast return, his bat will be a welcome addition to the lineup and he checks in at a discounted $5,100/$3,500 tonight with first base eligibility on FanDuel. Harper and his teammates will be facing a capable starter in Julio Urias who will have him and Kyle Schwarber at a same-handed disadvantage, however, which could temper expectations. Urias has a 3.69 xFIP and a 25.7% strikeout rate in his 32.2 innings and six starts this season, but he has given up significant power with a 5.15% home run rate in the small sample. The flyball pitcher has allowed a 3.34% home run rate and a 2.55% mark the past two seasons on the back of a spectacular 30.2% and 30.3% hard hit rates those two seasons, but when he makes mistakes he makes them in big ways. So far this year, just a minor uptick to 35.5% hard hits has resulted in the big bump in home run rate, though the sample is still unfairly tiny. Urias is a good lefty and he will be reliable for MLB DFS throughout the season, he projects in the mid-range in this matchup but there are probably better options than taking the matchup against a loaded Phillies lineup for $9,100/$9,400. On Philadelphia’s side, it will depend somewhat on where industrywide ownership projections land, but there is a path to success for individual bats and stacks. The return of Harper will probably render the top of the lineup somewhat overly popular, but a full stack may not be the go-to move for much of the public, and options like Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh will probably be low-owned in the same-handed matchup. Stott is a good correlation play if he is leading off ahead of Trea Turner, Harper, Nick Castellanos, and Schwarber, the infielder has gotten on base at a .346 clip and has created runs seven percent better than average. Turner should start turning things around quickly with even more protection in the lineup, he is cheap at just $3,000 on FanDuel, where the Phillies are a value option on this slate, further enhancing their appeal. Castellanos has been starring for this team this season, slashing .319/.373/.509 with four home runs, a .190 ISO, and a 137 WRC+, he is fully back in business as a solid high-end hitter. Schwarber has seven home runs and a .236 ISO and is fine for power in this matchup despite the same-handed starter. JT Realmuto and Alec Bohm are interesting right-handed hitters who will probably be less popular than they should be for $5,200/$2,800 and $4,200/$3,000. Both hitters have 104 WRC+ marks over the course of April, they are highly productive bats to find so late in a lineup. Edmundo Sosa rounds out the lineup with a surprising three home runs and a .226 ISO in his 66 plate appearances. Sosa costs just $2,400/$2,900 and has an 18.2% barrel rate to support the early output as not a total fluke.
Finally, Matt Strahm will be on the mound and may not wind up overly relevant for $6,900/$8,600 against an outstanding Dodgers lineup tonight. Strahm has a terrific 36% strikeout rate over 23.1 innings in five starts and has pitched to a 3.18 xFIP and a 0.81 WHIP but a lot of that work came in three starts against the Marlins, Reds, and Rockies on the strikeout end. Strahm gave up three runs each to the Reds and Rockies and he held the Yankees and Mariners to zero earned runs in his first and fifth outings of the season, but he was limited to three and five strikeouts in those appearances. Strahm is not off the table for anyone who wants to go there, but we remain skeptical against a Dodgers team that is best left alone when it comes to pitching shares. The lineup begins with Mookie Betts who strikes out just 20.8% of the time so far this year and has been far better at other points in his career. Just last year, Betts struck out just 16.3% of the time, joining Freddie Freeman and Will Smith as very difficult hitters to sit down via the punchout at the top of the lineup. That alone should hamper any upside for Strahm, but the three hitters are also among baseball’s best for power and run creation, Betts has a 129 WRC+, Freeman a 133, and Smith is at 159 in his limited 67 plate appearances this year. They have five, four, and four home runs so far this season and are worth every penny of salary in most matchups. Chris Taylor is slotted to hit cleanup with the lefty on the mound, which still seems miscast to us but the veteran has five home runs this season with a .242 ISO so who are we to argue? Max Muncy slides down to the fifth spot despite losing nothing against same-handed pitching. Muncy is actually better in the split than he is against righties for his career. He has 11 home runs with a .405 ISO and a 25.5% barrel rate this season and is entirely too cheap at $5,100 on DraftKings. Miguel Vargas has scuffled at just .202/.346/..321 with a lone home run this year but he is expected to hit and he comes cheap in a decent spot in this lineup. James Outman has been on fire to start the season with seven early home runs and a .313 ISO with a 160 WRC+, Trayce Thomspon has a 25% barrel rate and a 55% hard-hit rate in his 53 plate appearances with four home runs on the board and a .267 ISO, they are terrific options for low ownership and cheap prices from late in this excellent lineup. Miguel Rojas rounds things out as a mix-and-match piece but he has little upside beyond the six home runs and nine stolen bases he posted in 507 plate appearances last year.
Play: Phillies bats/stacks, Dodgers bats/stacks. pitching at your discretion and own risk.
Update Notes: Leadoff Schwarber is a bump to the power hitter, minor downgrade for Stott sliding from first to fifth in the confirmed lineup, Harper hits third with Turner second.
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