Monday brings May and, if we understood old rhymes correctly, the end of the April showers that walloped the weekend out of whack. Also maybe some flowers. For MLB DFS purposes, we’ll settle for clean weather forecasts and some warmer air around the league after a messy few days. The six-game slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel takes an interesting shape, with only two starters who could reasonably be referred to as “upper echelon” and a long list of same-same value options. The Power Index is showing a few standout spots for individual home run potential, though no team is smashing through the top of the board with 10s up and down the lineup. This seems to be a good day on which to spread out to cover a range of the top-ranked options with more condensed pitching ownership around the top options and a few of the less popular potential value plays.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, if a game has not been filled in simply check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability, but lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Summary – 5/1/23
Cleveland Guardians (+113/4.10) @ New York Yankees (-122/4.48)
The big market extremely expensive Yankees who purchase championships will be rolling out Domingo German and a lineup that includes Willie Calhoun, Oswaldo Cabrera, Franchy Cordero, Jose Trevino, and Aaron Hicks tonight, exactly according to plan and budget. The atrociously bad version of the Yankees will be at home to face the Guardians and German is showing all signs of a pitcher who will be in trouble tonight. The righty has a bizarre stat line on the surface with his very good 30.8% strikeout rate and a 1.08 WHIP but an awful 5.54 ERA and 6.54% home run rate in his 26 innings this year. German has a 3.52 xFIP under the surface, so there is an argument that he is better than what he has given up this year, but he has also yielded a 40.6% hard-hit rate and a massive 17.2% barrel rate. When German makes mistakes he tends to make them in big bad ways. Last season, the righty threw 72.1 innings in 14 starts, he had a 19.5% strikeout rate and a 4.33 xFIP with a similar 40% hard-hit rate but just a 6.9% mark for barrels and a still-high 3.69% home run rate. He was worse for contact but struck out more the season before at a 23.9% strikeout rate. Overall, German is an average pitcher at best, he does not have overly effective stuff, and he is targetable for power, making this a good opportunity for a Guardians lineup that excels at sequencing, running, and run creation and can hit the ball out of the park at the right moments. The pitcher is only somewhat playable in tournaments, German could post a reasonably effective outing but the odds are not in his favor and he is not at much of a discount with price tags of $8,700 and $8,400. Cleveland’s projected lineup leads off with Steven Kwan, who is a correlation play in the outfield for $4,800/$3,100. Kwan has exactly a league-average mark for run creation with a 100 WRC+ but he was at 124 for all of last season on the back of a strong ability to get on base. Kwan slashed .298/.373/.400 and added 19 stolen bases with six home runs last year, he makes a good first click in a stack but has just a 5.09 in our home run model on his own. Amed Rosario has struggled to just a .227/.260/.330 triple-slash with a .103 ISO and a 60 WRC+ over 104 plate appearances and has Cleveland fans calling for his head. The former top prospect has underperformed expectations after a good 2021 that saw him hit 11 home runs and steal 18 bases while creating runs three percent better than average. Rosario is at 5.91 in our home run model today, while he has struggled to create runs or hit for average and he has struck out at an uncharacteristic 26.9% clip so far this season, there is an encouraging sign in his 48.5% hard-hit rate. Jose Ramirez is a star at third base, he costs $5,800/$3,800 and has been a bit slow out of the gate to start the season. Ramirez has three home runs and five stolen bases and he has created runs 23% better than average while slashing .280/.368/.467 with a .187 ISO. All of those are good numbers, but this is a player who is generally regarded as the best bat at his position for MLB DFS. Ramirez produced 29 home runs and 20 stolen bases with a .280/.355/.514 triple-slash and a .235 ISO while creating runs 39% better than average last year, he is arguably slightly discounted right now and he has a team-leading 12.40 in our home run model. Another scuffling Guardians bat who was a moderately popular last-round pick in re-draft leagues, Josh Naylor, is expected to hit cleanup tonight. Naylor is a first baseman at $3,400/$2,700, he has three home runs on the board but just a 65 WRC+ and a .129 ISO. Last year Naylor hit 20 home runs and had a .196 ISO in 498 plate appearances, so the lack of production is a disappointment to this point in the season. Still, there are good indicators for Naylor, he has increased his barrel rate from 8.6% last year to 9.9% in the small sample this season, with his hard-hit rate climbing from 42.5% to 45.1%. That is probably small-sample happenstance, but if that trend continues the power hitting should follow, there is enough meat on the bone to continue playing Naylor in good power situations. Josh Bell has three home runs and a .176 ISO but has also bounced along the bottom early in 2023. Bell is slashing .206/.305/.382 and he has an 8.1% barrel rate with a 37.8% hard-hit rate over 118 plate appearances, in 647 last year he hit 17 home runs and had a 123 WRC+ with a .266/.362/.422 triple-slash, and the year before he was better for power with 27 home runs. Bell is fourth on the team at 9.79 in our home run model today. The third-ranked hitter comes two spots later with catcher Mike Zunino, whose contact profile is a home run hitter’s dream when he is going right. Zunino hits behind Andres Gimenez, another player with mid-range power in the infield. Gimenez hit 17 home runs last year, posting a .169 ISO with an excellent 140 WRC+ in 557 plate appearances. The young infielder has not squared the ball well this season, he has just a 1.3% barrel rate and a 25.3% hard-hit mark, last year he was at a still-not-great 6.2% and 37.6%, so his 7.72 in the home run model may be thinner than others at similar ratings. Zunino has two home runs in 70 plate appearances so far this year, if he is in the lineup he is a two-homer threat in any given game. Will Brennan has one home run this year, his minor league career topped out with the nine that he hit in 433 plate appearances in AAA last year, he is not a player who is here for his power, which carries a 30-grade in traditional 20-80 scouting. Brennan looks like the Incredible Hulk next to nine-hitter Myles Straw. Straw is slashing .267/.353/.300 with eight stolen bases and a 92 WRC+ so far this year, he stole 21 bases and created runs 36% worse than average over 596 plate appearances last year, there is someone somewhere in the Guardians system who can produce better numbers at the plate, but the blazing-fast Straw is here for his defense.
Oh, our poor Yankees. The club has been reduced to a shell of itself by injuries already this season, with superstar Aaron Judge lingering in limbo between the Injured List and active duty. The plan is to give Judge another night off on Monday before evaluating whether to put him on the IL or get him back in the lineup on Tuesday, which was the world’s most frustrating status note for season-long leagues that lock transactions overnight on Sunday for the full week. Judge remained in his starting outfield spot in that lineup for what it’s worth, there seems to be enough hope in New York that he will avoid the injured list, but he will not be playing tonight. Instead, the Yankees lineup will be just four or five hitters deep once again. This would be good news for Cal Quantrill if he were at all reliable at this level, but he is at the point where most in Cleveland think he is just keeping a seat warm for yet another stud young pitcher, with Gavin Williams getting promoted to AAA after Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen ascended to the Show in style this past week. Quantrill has a 12.8% strikeout rate over 25 innings in five starts this year, he had a 16.6% mark last year in 186.1 innings. This season the righty has pitched to a 5.30 xFIP with a 1.64 WHIP and just a 20.3% CSW%, though he has been reasonably good at limiting premium contact and power. Overall, Quantrill does not make much of an option for MLB DFS purposes at $7,400/$6,700. There is the idea of playable value against a bad club, but even this version of the Yankees could put the ball in play enough, potentially over the wall in the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium, to ruin Quantrill’s day even at a cheap price, and he does not have the strikeout upside to make up for earned runs. This is not to say that stacking Yankees is a great option. There is nothing wrong with the top four in the projected lineup, but overall the team seems unlikely to sequence and get on base enough to create more than a small handful of runs, even against a bad pitcher. Anthony Volpe is projected back in the leadoff spot, the prized prospect has slipped back to a 95 WRC+ after closing in on above-average production a few days ago. Volpe has a pair of home runs and eight stolen bases with a .333 on-base percentage, he should be treated more for speed and correlated scoring at this point, but it is easy to put the ball in play against this pitcher, meaning those characteristics might play well when going to the Yankees tonight. Anthony Rizzo is currently the best hitter in this lineup both for power and overall quality. Rizzo has five home runs with a .194 ISO and a 139 WRC+, he has barreled the ball in 9.3% of his batted-ball events with a 46.7% hard-hit rate and he is slashing .282/.370/.476 over 119 plate appearances. If Quantrill is going to cough up a big day to anyone in the Yankees lineup, Rizzo is the most likely candidate. For MLB DFS purposes, the first baseman is inexpensive at $4,300/$3,400 and he is very likely to be an unpopular one-off play, which makes him appealing, excluding the shortened 2020 season, Rizzo has hit 30 home runs in five of the last seven seasons, he hit 11 in 58 games in 2020, this is an excellent option at the dish against this pitcher. Gleyber Torres follows Rizzo in the projected lineup, the second baseman has four home runs and a 122 WRC+ but is now slashing just .245/.357/.426 with a .181 ISO over 112 plate appearances. Torres has a 10.7% barrel rate but his hard hits have dipped from 44.9% last year to just 32% in the small sample so far this season. The streaky hitter is in play at his affordable price with moderate expectations, but he does not have much support behind him in this version of the lineup. DJ LeMahieu is a good hitter who is miscast in the cleanup role, but the Yankees are largely out of options. LeMahieu is slashing .250/.323/.4443 with a .193 ISO and a 113 WRC+, hitting three home runs with a 56.7% hard-hit rate in his 99 plate appearances this year. The infielder is a solid option given his eligibility at first and third base for just $3,800 on DraftKings and he is a $3,100 three-position player who adds second base to the equation on the blue site. After that, things get ugly. Willie Calhoun has struggled to prove that he is a Major League hitter, he is projected to hit fifth. Calhoun has a .026 ISO and a 48 WRC+ in his 41 opportunities this year. Oswaldo Cabrera is a utility player getting everyday plate appearances for this team, he has 91 opportunities on the year and he is slashing .200/.233/.282 with a .082 ISO and a 37 WRC+. Franchy Cordero hit four home runs in the early days of the season, he has four home runs on May 1st and is now slashing .151/.182/.396 in his 55 plate appearances. Cordero does still have a .245 ISO but his WRC+ is a 52 and he is striking out at a 36.4% clip. When he connects he can drive the ball, but actually connecting has always been this hitter’s problem. On second thought, maybe there is a touch of upside for Quantrill in this spot. Jose Trevino is an excellent defensive catcher with a limited bat. Aaron Hicks is a limited defensive outfielder with a limited bat.
Play: Guardians bats/stacks, very minor shares of value Quantrill with extremely low expectations, top of the lineup if going to Yankees
Update Notes: The Guardians’ lineup was confirmed as expected. The Yankees lineup has the expected Volpe-Rizzo-Torres-LeMahieu-Calhoun top five with Oswald Peraza adding at least a decently regarded prospect bat to the mix hitting sixth, ahead of Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Cabrera, and Trevino. This is still a bad lineup, the change takes a potential home run threat out of the lineup in Franchy Cordero, maybe a very minor bump to Quantrill if there was any upside to begin with.
Chicago Cubs (-128/4.27) @ Washington Nationals (+118/3.82)
The Cubs and Nationals will have dueling lefties on the mound tonight, with rising MacKenzie Gore taking the ball for the home squad. Gore has made five starts and thrown 27 innings so far this season and he has burst onto the scene with a 31.5% strikeout rate and a 3.00 ERA with a 3.51 xFIP in early returns. The former top prospect still has issues with free passes, he has walked 14.4% of opposing hitters in 2023 and was at a 12% walk rate last year. That is unsustainably high, but the strikeout uptick has covered a lot of it to this point for Gore, and he has been good at limiting premium contact this year as well. The southpaw has allowed just a 3.3% barrel rate and 87.7 mph of average exit velocity this year, last year was ugly at a 9.7% barrel rate with 45.4% hard-hits and a 90.8 mph average exit velocity, though that amounted to just a 2.27% home run rate on his 13.7-degree average launch angle. Gore has kept the launch angle to just 8.5 degrees so far this season, which is a big factor in his overall improvement and limitation of premium contact. With the frisky Cubs on the other side, this is an interesting challenge for the talented young pitcher, in addition to their power and speed upside, Chicago has a few hitters in the lineup that are very capable of waiting out a walk, which could drive run creation. Nico Hoerner is projected to lead off, he is slashing a robust .328/.367/.437 with a pair of home runs and 10 stolen bases in his 128 plate appearances this season, creating runs 21% better than average to set the pace for the Cubs. He is followed by a pair of veterans with power, speed, and strong on-base skills. Dansby Swanson has hit just one home run with a .061 ISO in the absence of his typically excellent power, but he is still creating runs 20% better than average and he has gotten on base at a .412 clip while increasing his walk rate from seven percent to 17.6% in the small sample of 119 plate appearances this year. Swanson hit 25 home runs and stole 18 bases last year and had a 27/9 season in 2021, his power will arrive and he is a strong option for $4,500/$3,100 at a premium position. Ian Happ is drawing walks at a 16.4% clip, up from nine percent last season, he is getting on base at a .405 pace and creating runs 35% better than average over 116 plate appearances in 2023. Happ is a very good middle-class player, he is not a star but he can produce solid counting stats at fair prices and middling popularity. He hit 17 home runs and stole nine bases while creating runs 20% better than average last year and had a 25-home-run season with nine steals in 2021. The trio at the top of the lineup is in play as a stack ahead of the team’s power bats in the heart of the order, or they can be mixed and matched with additional bats from further down the lineup, but they are all strong options in a heavily right-handed projected lineup. Seiya Suzuki costs $4,600/$3,100 on the right side of the plate. The outfielder has made 66 plate appearances after dealing with an early injury this season, he has one home run and just a .119 ISO with a 96 WRC+ but he has a strong 51.3% hard-hit rate in the small sample and he is another high-quality hitter with good run creation skills and power. Suzuki hit 14 home runs in 446 plate appearances and created runs 16% better than average in his first MLB season last year, posting an 11% barrel rate along the way. He is another player who can work a walk, he is at a 9.1% rate in the small sample this season and had a 9.4% in 2021 while getting on base at a .336 clip. Trey Mancini has come around somewhat since we last looked, but his power is still down after early struggles. The slugger is slashing .261/.305/.375 with a .114 ISO and an 86 WRC+ with three home runs on the board in 97 plate appearances. Mancini has barreled the ball just 3.1% of the time with a 39.1% hard-hit rate, but he is priced way down at $2,500/$3,000, adding outfield eligibility to his first base positioning on the blue site. Cody Bellinger is in the projected lineup with no concerns about a same-handed pitching matchup. Four of Bellinger’s seven home runs in his bounce-back start in 2023 have come against fellow lefties. For his career, Bellinger has a .210 ISO and a 102 WRC+ against left-handed pitching, with 46 of his 159 career home runs in the split in 989 plate appearances. Right-handed Patrick Wisdom has eligibility at third base and in the outfield for $4,400/$3,900. Wisdom has a 20% barrel rate and a 61.8% hard-hit over 102 plate appearances with 10 home runs on the board this season. He has created runs 53% better than average with a .391 ISO and, though he does strike out at a 30% rate, he is a major asset for MLB DFS when he is in the lineup. The right-handed masher has produced power that should have his price well over the $5,000 mark on DraftKings, his $3,900 salary on FanDuel is roughly correct but it would not be incorrect to price him in the $4,000s in this spot. Wisdom is our Cubs’ home run pick for tonight, though the board is flashing just a 5.64 against Gore’s ability to limit power over roughly 100 career innings. Yan Gomes is a productive hitter as a catcher, he is slashing .299/.314/.537 with a .239 ISO and a 126 WRC+ over 70 plate appearances this year and he has a 12.3% barrel rate. Gomes is cheap at $3,600/$3,200 and is in play as a mid-range catcher. Nelson Velazquez is slashing .350/.435/.900 with three home runs in his 23 plate appearances this year. He hit six home runs in 206 opportunities while slashing .205/.286/.373 last year, so there is hope that the 24-year-old is taking a step. Velazquez is a flawed hitter with upside for power, he strikes out too much and does not hit home runs with enough reliability yet, but for any-given-slate MLB DFS upside, he is in play if he is in the lineup and one is building several stacks of Cubs.
Our ongoing quality watch for the Nationals now has three players in the projected lineup who are carrying above-average marks for run creation in 2023. One of those, Stone Garrett, has made just 43 plate appearances this season. Another is solid catcher Keibert Ruiz, who is having a nice year at a 106 WRC+ but lacks major power upside for MLB DFS. And the third and final player who is above average for run creation in this lineup remains Victor Robles, who is now at 106 over 94 plate appearances. Robles has hit zero home runs and has a .076 ISO this season, he hit six with a .087 ISO in 407 plate appearances last year, he is not much at the plate but he has been getting on base and can steal a bag, he has six steals and a .374 on-base percentage this season. The other moving parts in the Nationals lineup have been below average for run creation and they do not do anything particularly well. The team leader for home runs is Jeimer Candelario, this is not a good baseball team. They will be facing lefty Drew Smyly who checks in with a $7,800/$9,300 salary, the blue site is pricing Smyly up aggressively for the matchup, which may drive down his popularity on the single pitcher site on a limited day for pitching. Smyly is a highly viable SP2 option at his DraftKings salary. The lefty has made five starts this season and he has a 24.5% strikeout rate with just a 5.5% walk rate and a 0.93 WHIP. His 4.29 xFIP is more telling than the 3.21 ERA, but that is on-brand for this pitcher who was better on the surface for all of last season but is typically at worst around the league average. Smyly is a flyball pitcher who relies on limiting premium contact when hitters connect, occasionally one can get away from him as evidenced by a 3.58% home run rate in 106.1 innings last year and a 4.95% mark in 126.2 innings the year before, but he was good at limiting exit velocity at 86.7 mph with a 34.5% hard-hit rate last year and has been excellent so far this season. Smyly has allowed just a four percent barrel rate and 84.1 mph of average exit velocity so far this year, amounting to a 1.82% home run rate and 26.7% hard hits. He is not a dazzling option, but there is MLB DFS scoring upside in getting to shares of Smyly on this slate. The Nationals’ low-end lineup is a less appealing play, if Smyly gets overly popular on the two-pitcher site they can be deployed in light shares in a contrarian “attack the ownership” sense, but it is very thin. Playable bats not mentioned above include Alex Call, Joey Meneses, Lane Thomas, and Michael Chavis, all of home will hit from the right side against Smyly. Call is slashing .250/.363/.345 with a 99 WRC+ and a pair of home runs; Meneses hits between Candelario and Ruiz and was the team’s best bat last season hitting 13 home runs in 240 plate appearances; Thomas is projected to hit fifth, he is cheap but has shown no power this season after hitting 17 home runs but posting just a .163 ISO and a 96 WRC+ in 548 plate appearances last year; Chavis has better than a .200 ISO against lefties for his career, but he has never been able to secure a full-time job after coming up as a highly regarded hitting prospect several years ago. It is noteworthy that the Nationals are flashing reasonable upside for individual home run-hitting potential in our power index. The top options from a home run potential perspective are Candelario at 7.67, Meneses at 9.87, Garrett at 9.21, and Chavis at 8.14.
Play: Cubs bats/stacks, MacKenzie Gore, Drew Smyly, minor shares of Nationals if homer-hunting in the bargain bin
Update Notes: the Cubs lineup shakes things up with Ian Happ taking a seat and Bellinger in a great spot hitting third ahead of Suzuki-Mancini-Wisdom. Gomes-Velazquez-Nick Madrigal rounds out the lineup. The Nationals lineup includes CJ Abrams in the ninth spot and no Michael Chavis, which is a shame. Dominic Smith is hitting seventh with the Nationals foregoing the platoon advantage in the bottom third of their lineup and Stone Garrett will also take a seat. Be wary of Luis Garcia hitting second for naming convention reasons if this is not handled in your process, he and the pitcher of the same name project somewhat differently.
Toronto Blue Jays (-143/5.49) @ Boston Red Sox (+131/4.63)
The loaded Blue Jays lineup will be in Fenway Park to face struggling veteran Corey Kluber tonight, with the weight of massive expectations on their backs. Toronto is carrying a slate-leading 5.49 implied team total in the game that has the highest mark for runs on the board in Vegas. With the team starting Jose Berrios, who can give up a crooked number to any team, there could be fireworks in Boston tonight. Kluber has made five starts this year, throwing 24 innings into major power concerns and a lack of strikeouts. Kluber has just an 18.9% strikeout rate this year with an ugly 6.75 ERA that does not get much better at a 5.61 xFIP under the surface. The righty got by last year on an excellent ability to limit premium contact, opposing hitters managed just a 34.7% hard-hit rate and 87.2 mph of average exit velocity against Kluber last year, he was at a similar 34.4% hard-hit rate with 86.9 mph of average exit velocity in 2021, and he struck out more hitters that season at 24% in his 80 innings. Last year may have been the end of the line, however, so far this season Kluber’s ability to limit premium contact has vanished, he has allowed a 40% hard-hit rate in the small sample, with opposing hitters mashing for a 10.5% barrel rate and a 6.60% home run rate on 89.8 mph of average exit velocity, and he seems to have changed his pitch mix, throwing his cutter far less so far this year. At $6,600/$7,000 Kluber could have enough left to post an effective start were he not facing such a stout opponent, a big game, or even a quality mid-range score, seems far less likely against these Blue Jays. Kluber has only extreme dart-throw appeal at best. George Springer had a big Sunday and now has three home runs and five stolen bases with hopes that he is on the way to his typically excellent output atop this lineup. Springer costs $5,100/$3,100, the FanDuel price remains broken and he should be extremely popular in this spot. Bo Bichette has six home runs and is slashing .317/.354/.508 with a .192 ISO and a 141 WRC+, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is slashing .309/.394/.491 with a .182 ISO and a 151 WRC+ and has hit five home runs. The pair of outrageously productive stars are always in play, their run creation marks are up so far this season even with Guerrero taking a minor dip in early power output with his ISO dropping from last season’s .205. Matt Chapman has been one of baseball’s best players this year, he has a 219 WRC+, meaning he has been 119% better than average in creating runs this year. Chapman has gotten on base in nearly half of his plate appearances, he is slashing .384/.465/.687 with a .303 ISO. No one who hits the ball as hard as Chapman should also be allowed to get on base nearly half the time, it is borderline unfair, but Chapman is great at drawing walks and getting involved even when he is not driving the ball, he is a strong buy even at the high price. Daulton Varsho is slashing .194/.292/.296 with a 70 WRC+ and a concerning 29.4% hard-hit rate, he might be in need of a day off. Brandon Belt is a solid left-handed bat to throw at Kluber, Belt has struggled in 65 plate appearances, slashing just .169/.246/.288 with one home run but he has been a reliable power hitter for years and he comes cheap at $2,300/$2,600, though choosing him over Guerrero at first base where there is no utility position to rely on seems somewhat silly in a vacuum. Danny Jansen has three home runs and a .196 ISO in 61 plate appearances and makes for a good cheap catcher option, Cavan Biggio and Kevin Keiermaier are mainly here for their defense.
Right-hander Jose Berrios has come on somewhat in early returns after struggling through 2022. Last year he made 32 starts and posted a 4.21 xFIP with a 19.8% strikeout rate while allowing a 43.4% hard-hit rate and 90 mph of average exit velocity against. So far this year, Berrios has been back to his solid 2021 form, pitching to a 3.30 xFIP with a 26.1% strikeout rate despite a 4.71 ERA. He has allowed a 39.2% hard-hit rate but has limited exit velocity to just 87.1 mph and has allowed a 0.87% home run rate in five starts, which primarily seems to have been accomplished by keeping the ball down to an uncharacteristic 4.9-degree average launch angle. Berrios is in play on the assumption that he has made tweaks to cover his flaws and is seeing the results early, he comes cheap at $8,300/$8,800 and he could be popular in this matchup, but there is enough on which to hang our hat, given similar success in a full 192-inning 32-start sample from 2021. If he gets overly popular, Red Sox bats can be played as a bit of a hedge against this pitcher. Berrios’ numbers from 2022 didn’t go away, he was lousy for power and it is showing in the projections for several Red Sox hitters, the major problem is that the lineup is fairly short with only a few premium bats that everyone going to them will be utilizing. Alex Verdugo is slashing .308/.372/.479 and creating runs 34% better than average in 129 plate appearances atop the lineup, Masataka Yoshida is projected to hit in the second spot once again, he has four home runs and has been coming on strong pushing his way up to a .276/.373/.460 triple-slash with a .184 ISO and a 129 WRC+. The turnaround is encouraging for the rookie MLB hitter who was signed to a big contract that came with questions about the spending after his long track record of success in Japan’s NPB. Justin Turner is a reliable veteran bat who can put the ball in play effectively, but he has just a .102 ISO so far this year. Rafael Devers is the obvious go-to star in this lineup, the lefty masher has 10 home runs and a titanic .330 ISO with a 117 WRC+ in the heart of the lineup. Devers is carrying a 12.47 in our home run model, he costs $6,200/$4,300 and has an excellent 16.1% barrel rate and a 52.9% hard-hit for the year, the third baseman can be in any lineup in any scenario. Lefty Triston Casas has struggled significantly, Bobby Dalbec paces in his room in AAA every night waiting for the phone call while Casas slashes .133/.283/.293 with three home runs and a 62 WRC+ to start his career. The top prospect first baseman is cheap at $2,400/$2,700, he can be used to offset the cost of also rostering Devers in a stack. Jarren Duran, Enrique Hernandez, Reese McGuire, and Emmanuel Valdez make a questionable bottom half for Boston, though Duran has been productive in his 53 plate appearances this year. The outfield prospect has one home run and two steals and has gotten on base at a .415 clip to start his season. The focus for Red Sox bats is from 1-6.
Play: Blue Jays stacks/bats, Jose Berrios, minor shares of Red Sox top-end
Update Notes: The Blue Jays will have Whit Merrifield in for Biggio, adding a quality bat to their lineup. Merrifield will hit sixth between Varsho and Belt, which is a dynamic mid-lineup mini-stack for a cheap total price and is interesting overall. The rest of the lineup is as expected. The Red Sox lineup looks as expected with Enrique Hernandez hitting sixth and Casas seventh, both behind Jarren Duran who leaps up to fifth. UPDATE: George Springer was scratched, and everyone in the Blue Jays lineup moves up one spot with Cavan Biggio slotting in eighth ahead of Keiermaier, downgrade overall to the Blue Jays stack, but they remain excellent 1-7 and are very much in play. Basically, just get Springer out of your lineups and everything else with Toronto is fine.
San Francisco Giants (+159/3.71) @ Houston Astros (-174/4.89)
The Giants have an interesting productive lineup filled with capable bats against either hand in a variety of configurations. The team has a number of players who have been above average for run creation while hitting for mid-range power up and down the lineup, but they tend to swing and miss aggressively as well, which should give some upside to Luis Garcia on the mound for the Astros. The righty has made five starts in 2023 and he has not been great at sitting opposing hitters down with just a 20% strikeout rate so far. Last season he was at 24.4% in 157.1 innings and he had 26.4% mark over 155.1 in 2021, so this could be a good get-right spot for the pitcher. Otherwise, the starter has a 4.27 xFIP and a 4.00 ERA and has allowed just a 34.1% hard-hit rate with 86.6 mph of average exit velocity, which is roughly on-form for his previous production. Garcia has allowed a 2.63% home run rate, giving up one long ball in each of his first three starts but none in his two most effective outings, which came in his last two starts. Last time out, Garcia shut out the mighty Rays in their home park over six innings of three-hit ball in which he struck out seven and walked two. The start before that he shut down the Blue Jays over seven innings of two-hit ball, walking just one and striking out nine. If Garcia continues that strong trend and stays on form his stat line will normalize quickly and he could make for a major asset on tonight’s MLB DFS slate. Garcia costs $9,200/$9,600, which is probably too cheap. Giants bats are playable against the starter in shares relative to where he is rostered as a pitcher in one’s lineup portfolio, the less of the probably popular pitcher one uses, the more the Giants’ bats gain appeal. LaMonte Wade Jr. is slashing .243/.430/.529 with a .286 ISO and 164 WRC+ over 94 plate appearances. The first baseman has five home runs and an excellent 14.3% barrel rate, he is a threat for power and correlated scoring from the left side for merely $3,200/$2,800. Thairo Estrada has four home runs and eight stolen bases while creating runs 53% better than average and slashing .346/.393/.529. The middle infielder was a productive MLB DFS option through most of last season, hitting 14 home runs and stealing 21 bases while creating runs seven percent better than average at typically cheap prices and lower ownership, but tonight he costs $5,700/$3,700 at the highest-priced Giants hitter. Joc Pederson is a left-handed masher who specializes against righties. He has a pair of home runs with a .212 ISO in his 61 plate appearances this year, last year he hit 23 with a .247 ISO in 433 plate appearances. Mitch Haniger missed time early this season, he has made just 19 plate appearances but already has two home runs on the board. Last year he hit 11 in 247 plate appearances and he had a monster season in 2021 with 39 in a fully healthy 691 opportunities. Haniger is a star when he is healthy, he costs just $4,200/$3,200 and the public is probably not up to speed on the spot. Michael Conforto was our home run pick from the Giants today, he has a 6.05 in the model and has hit four homers in his return to action in 2023. Conforto hit 14 home runs and had a 106 WRC+ in 2021 before missing all of last year, he is slashing .205/.319/.372 with a 95 WRC+ over 91 opportunities so far this year. JD Davis hit another home run for the believers last night, he now has six in 93 plate appearances with a .241 ISO and a 140 WRC+ yet he costs just $4,300/$3,000 at third base. Davis is very much on the board with his 47.3% hard-hit rate and excellent contact profile over time. Blake Sabol, Wilmer Flores, and Brett Wisely round out the projected lineup, Sabol has five home runs in 65 plate appearances with a .250 ISO and a 110 WRC+ he could be an underrated catcher option from the left side tonight and Flores is always viable. The infielder is cheap at $3,100/$2,700, he has four home runs and a 109 WRC+ with a .197 ISO this year.
The Astros will be facing veteran righty Ross Stripling on the mound tonight. Stripling is a roughly league-average pitcher for his career, last season he threw 134.1 innings in 24 starts and posted a 3.67 xFIP with a 3.01 ERA in a solid year, the season before he was at a 4.59 xFIP and a 4.80 ERA over 101.1 innings, and he was also bad for allowing power with a 10.2% barrel rate, a 40% hard-hit rate with a 90 mph average exit velocity, and a 5.34% home run rate. In his first 15.2 innings this year, that was the version of Stripling that was on the mound. The righty has made two starts and he has three other appearances out of the bullpen in a long-relief role, he allowed three home runs in his first start, striking out three Yankees and allowing four earned runs in five innings, his second outing lasted just 1.2 innings in relief. In that appearance, Stripling gave up a pair of home runs and four earned runs on four hits while striking out just one of the lowly Royals. He allowed his sixth home run of the season in the next outing, a better 3.1-inning appearance against the Dodgers that saw him strike out six, after which he threw 2.1 scoreless innings with three strikeouts against the Marlins, then made a 3.1-inning start in which he allowed six hits and two runs while striking out just one but keeping the ball in the yard. All of this amounts to a 4.34 xFIP under an ugly 6.89 ERA with a 44.2% hard-hit rate, a 15.4% barrel rate, and 90.9 mph of average exit velocity that have yielded home runs at an 8.33% clip, none of which is sustainable. The brief homerless innings streak seems likely to come to an end tonight, and Stripling is not much of an option on the mound at $6,400/$7,100, he makes the Astros bats look very appealing. The projected lineup for Houston has Mauricio Dubon leading off, as has been the recent trend. Dubon is not much of a home run option, he has a .083 ISO and zero homers in his 101 plate appearances this year and he hit just five in each of the past two seasons in 265 and 187 opportunities respectively. Dubon is appealing for his hit tool and moderate talent for getting on base ahead of the team’s power core, he is slashing .302/.327/.385 with a 99 WRC+ for the season, slipping him slightly below average for run creation. Jeremy Pena is slashing .241/.298/.464 with a 111 WRC+ for the season, he is a power threat at the plate and he is carrying a 9.47 in our home run model, the third-highest mark on the team today. Pena has hit six long balls this season, posting a .223 ISO so far, but he has a flawed contact profile with just a 6.3% barrel rate and a 34.2% hard-hit rate for the season. Last year he was able to push barrels up to 9.6% but hard hits were just 36.2% overall, and he had just a .173 ISO underneath his 22 home runs. Pena is capable of hitting the ball over the wall, but he is not a true home run hitter, for our purposes that is a thin distinction, he is in play at price and positioning for MLB DFS. Yordan Alvarez is a true home run hitter in addition to being one of the top overall bats in the league. Alvarez has six home runs in 98 plate appearances in 2023, posting a .272 ISO with a 157 WRC+. The outfield star has missed a few games with nagging injuries but is protected to be in the lineup after returning last night. Alvarez has a 16.7% barrel rate with a 48.1% hard-hit which is terrific production for premium contact, but actually represents a major dip from last year for this hitter. In 2022, Alvarez had a 21% barrel rate and a 59.8% hard-hit, rivaling Aaron Judge on a tier of two. With 37 homers on the board last year and 33 the season before, it seems fair to suggest that there is more power on the way for the superstar this season. Alex Bregman checks in with a $4,400/$2,900 salary, the price on FanDuel is simply too low for this hitter in this position in this lineup against this pitcher. Bregman has scuffled to start 2023, the veteran star is slashing just .219/.354/.343 with a .124 ISO and three home runs, yet he still has a 105 WRC+. When Bregman’s bat comes around to its true form, this already elite offense will skyrocket, if Jose Abreu starts hitting at the same time and Jose Altuve returns, we may as well award the American League crown right then. Bregman is a strong play for a low salary and probably less popular than he should be, hitting between him and Abreu is left-handed star Kyle Tucker, who has the second-highest Astros mark in our home run model at 12.02, trailing only Alvarez’s 14.16. Tucker has a 10.1% barrel rate with a 45.6% hard-hit this season in 119 plate appearances, over 609 last year he had a 10.1% barrel rate and a 41.9% hard-hit with 30 home runs and 25 stolen bases, so we can reasonably expect another potential small step forward for power for a player who is already a star. Tucker has five home runs and five stolen bases on the board already this year while creating runs 41% better than average and slashing .286/.390/.469. Abreu has dragged things down early in the season, the star first baseman is slashing just .235/.267/.270 with a .035 ISO and a 47 WRC+ over 120 plate appearances. There are some concerns with Abreu, the slugger’s power has been completely out since last August, and he has one home run on the board since August 3rd of last year while playing essentially every day. Abreu hit just 15 in 679 plate appearances last year and has zero in 120 tries this year. He hit 30 home runs in 659 plate appearances in 2021, posting a .219 ISO but last year’s ISO dipped to .141, which Abreu was able to cover with a still-productive .304/.378/.446 triple-slash and a 137 WRC+. If his hit tool has also vanished this is a major problem. The sample is still incredibly small and there is a long track record of success for Abreu to lean on, but the Eye of Sauron is firmly fixed on Abreu’s spot in this lineup, for today he still has a 7.47 in our home run model, roughly half the mark of Alvarez, but still some lingering memory of a home run hitter. Rookie Corey Julks is slashing .297/.303/.432 with a pair of home runs and a 102 WRC+, he has a 6.47 in our home run model, Jake Meyers and Martin Maldonado round things out at 5.17 and 5.35, Maldonado hit 15 home runs with a .166 WRC+ from the bottom of the lineup at low ownership for MLB DFS last season.
Play: Astros stacks/bats, Luis Garcia, some hedge Giants stacks/bats
Update Notes: The Giants lineup runs as expected with the exception of David Villar who slots in eighth instead of Flores. The Astros have Bregman hitting second between Dubon and Alvarez with Abreu in the cleanup spot ahead of Tucker, and Jeremy Pena dropping to sixth, but the players are the ones we expected.
Cincinnati Reds (+189/3.51) @ San Diego Padres (-208/5.10)
Padres starter Blake Snell is carrying our highest pitching projection today and he checks in at just a $8,500/$8,000 salary after a very slow start to his 2023. Snell’s quality is a mystery at the moment but he is facing a low-end Reds lineup that should lend him additional upside tonight. The lefty has made five starts and thrown just 23 innings, posting a 5.48 ERA with a 5.19 xFIP and a 23.9% strikeout rate with an awful 16.5% walk rate and a 1.87 WHIP. While he has stretched out to pitch five full innings in each of his last three starts, Snell is never overly reliable for depth, and he had 13 walks in those 15 innings, with five, three, and three, while striking out a hitter-per-inning in each start. His high point for strikeouts was actually his first outing, which lasted 4.1 innings against the Rockies. Snell struck out nine hitters and walked just one in that outing, but was pulled in the fifth with three earned runs on six hits. He has given up five home runs on the season, with one each to the Cubs, Braves, and Braves again in a different game, and two to the Mets, he kept the Rockies off of the home run board in that first start. If Snell can find that form against a similarly bad Reds team, he could have significant upside for MLB DFS tonight, particularly if he makes his way into the sixth inning somehow. While that might be a lofty expectation, five solid innings with a handful of strikeouts is acceptable from this pitcher at this price. The Reds lineup is playable when not going to Snell, particularly with the pitcher’s inability to keep runners off the basepaths, but expectations and ownership should be kept in check for a team that will likely come up a lot around the industry for value. Cincinnati’s lineup opens with Jonathan India, who is slashing .287/.393/.396 with a 115 WRC+ as one of the team’s more productive hitters. India is better as a correlated scoring play but he has mid-range power and speed for individual production as well. Spencer Steer is the home run pick from the Reds today with a 6.23 in our model. Steer has two on the year and a .154 ISO with a 40.6% hard-hit rate. Stuart Fairchild is another decent right-handed bat to consider if rostering hitters against Snell, he costs just $2,300/$2,500 and hit five home runs with a .216 ISO in a 110 plate appearances cup of coffee last season, but has just one in 60 opportunities this year. Tyler Stephenson is a usable part behind the plate at a cheap price, Henry Ramos is cheap after just 26 plate appearances in the Show, and Kevin Newman, Nick Senzel, Matt Reynolds, and Jose Barrero are a wildly uninspiring collection of hitters.
Luke Weaver is on the mound again for the Reds. The righty has made two starts and thrown 11.2 innings with a miraculous 31.4% strikeout rate. Weaver had a 21.8% rate in 35.2 innings and one start last year and a 22.5% rate over 65.2 innings and 13 starts in 2021, unless something has changed dramatically for the 29-year-old, this is small sample noise and he remains targetable. Weaver has allowed a 94.7 mph average exit velocity with a 63.3% hard-hit rate and a 23.3% barrel rate in the tiny sample this season with a 9.80% home run rate. While that is also extremely noisy in the small sample, it is more believable for this pitcher than the quality strikeouts so far. Weaver is a target for bats, he should only be deployed on the mound by the totally fearless in very large tournaments, he is very likely to get tattooed by the Padres stars tonight. Fernando Tatis Jr. has a 13.83 in our home run model and a slate-leading MLB DFS points projection for $6,000/$3,700. The star hitter is slashing .268/.302/.463 with a .195 ISO and a 109 WRC+ over his first 43 plate appearances since returning from the bad boy list. He has two home runs so far and was a 42/25 star when we last saw him in 2021. Tatis is a major buy against this pitcher for MLB DFS production. Stacking the star with Manny Machado and Juan Soto, despite their struggles, is a great approach. Machado is cheap at $5,000/$3,000 by about $1,000 on each site. The third base star is slashing just .236/.280/.391 with a .155 ISO and four home runs, if you believe that is where he will end up for the season we probably disagree about baseball in general. Soto has been worse at .202/.373/.384 with five home runs, he will also absolutely turn things around with his hit tool and he, unlike Machado, has been 13% better than average for run creation regardless. Soto costs $5,200/$3,400, he is also about $1,000 to cheap overall. Xander Bogaerts is a $5,500/$3,900 option who slots into the lineup with Tatis in the outfield on DraftKings and as a shortstop/outfield play on FanDuel. Getting to both hitters along with a third star shortstop would be an oddball way to differentiate a double-stacked lineup on the blue site, playing Bogaerts at short, Tatis in the outfield, and, say, Jeremy Pena in an Astros stack at the UTIL spot is an unlikely combination of hitters. Bogaerts is slashing .308/.400/.514 with six home runs, a .206 ISO and a 153 WRC+ over his 125 plate appearances, he is an absolute star at his position. The lineup begins to crumble around Jake Cronenworth, who is a useable part with a 98 WRC+ and three home runs and a cheap salary. Cronenworth created runs 10% better than average in a larger sample last year but he is a utility player in the larger sense. Matt Carpenter has three home runs and a 144 WRC+ in 66 plate appearances but there is significant day-to-day doubt in going to him for MLB DFS. Ha-Seong Kim, Trent Grisham, and Austin Nola are low-end options from late in the lineup, with Grisham as the most appealing with his 104 WRC+ and .208 ISO over 114 opportunities.
Play: Padres bats/stacks, Blake Snell
Update Notes: Luke Maile is in the Reds lineup in the nine spot instead of Reynolds. Blake Snell is a top-end option on the mound, there is viability to the Reds offense as well, it is unchanged by the change at the bottom of the lineup.
Philadelphia Phillies (+145/3.82) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-158/4.78)
Monday’s nightcap has a great matchup with the Phillies and Dodgers squaring off in LaLaWood. Philadelphia is facing righty Tony Gonsolin, who lasted just 3.1 innings in his first outing of the season in a planned short start, and who is unlikely to pitch deep into this one. Gonsolin is a talented pitcher when he is on form but he is not there yet this season and the Phillies should have an upside in his innings and against the Dodgers bullpen. Philadelphia’s lineup is going to get a major boost tomorrow night, with Bryce Harper cleared to return on Tuesday, but they will go one more game without their superstar. Tonight the team still offers an excellent selection of hitters including leadoff man Bryson Stott, who has created runs eight percent better than average while slashing a sturdy .317/.344/.423 with two home runs and three stolen bases this year. Stott is a correlated scoring and speed option more than he is an individual contributor, he makes a great option at a cheap price along with Trea Turner and ahead of Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos. Turner has scuffled with just a 78 WRC+, two home runs, and four stolen bases in a bit of a WBC hangover, he will be fine in the long term and is somewhat cheap for him at $5,400/$3,300 in a good spot. Turner hit 21 homers and stole 27 bases with a 128 WRC+ last year and was a 28/32 player with a 142 WRC+ the season before. Schwarber is slashing just .204/.333/.417 with six home runs but he has a strong .214 ISO and an excellent contact profile with an 11.8% barrel rate and a 45.6% mark for hard hits. Schwarber is also somewhat cheap for his talents and is a strong play on both sites tonight. Nick Castellanos is slashing .313/.369/.509 with a 137 WRC+ and is up to four home runs, he has absolutely returned to form but his price is not caught up in full on DraftKings, the outfielder costs just $4,700/$3,600. Castellanos is a great play on both sites tonight, the savings on DraftKings make him a must in stacks of Phillies bats. Brandon Marsh is another outfielder who has raked early in the season for the Phillies. Marsh is slashing .329/.418/.547 with four home runs and a massive .318 ISO while creating runs 82% better than average, he has been excellent for individual scoring and correlation in MLB DFS lineups. JT Realmuto is up to .281/.304/.469 and has created runs three percent better than average after a brief early dip, he is still the best catcher in baseball when he has the bat in his hands. Realmuto is priced correctly at $5,100 on DraftKings, he is a good buy despite his unnecessary position at $2,800 on FanDuel. Alec Bohm has cooled overall but still has a 107 WRC+ and is slashing .275/.336/.422 with multi-position eligibility on the blue site and a cheap price around the industry. Bohm is never popular but the former first-round pick is a capable bat in what should be a productive lineup tonight. Jake Cave and Edmundo Sosa round things out for the Phillies’ projected lineup.
Right-handed Taijuan Walker is another roughly league-average pitcher on this slate. Walker had a 20.3% strikeout rate in 157.1 innings with a 3.89 xFIP last year and a 22.3% mark in 159 innings with a 4.47 xFIP in 2021. He is not great, but he can be serviceable with the infrequent ability to put up a low-owned ceiling score. That does not seem likely to be the case tonight against the Dodgers, but at $7,600/$7,300 it does not need to be all that likely to justify at least a few large-tournament darts. This is not a safe play, it is not a likely play, it will most likely implode very early in the game and we are not advocating it for the fainthearted, but there is the idea of points-for-price in a terrible matchup for the cheap pitcher. The smart money will be with Dodgers bats. The Los Angeles All-Star team is basically back to full health and attendance after a few injuries and a run of trips to the paternity list the last few weeks. Mookie Betts stars in the leadoff role for $5,300/$3,800 with eligibility at second base and in the outfield on FanDuel and he slots in at shortstop instead of second base on DraftKings after a few starts at that position. This only serves to enhance the superstar’s value of course, he is an excellent option at any position. Betts has four home runs and a 117 WRC+ in 120 plate appearances to start 2023 and has not really even gotten the engine turned over for this year. Freddie Freeman is slashing .292/.377/.451 with a 128 WRC+ and four home runs, adding four stolen bases at first base, he is too cheap at $4,800/$3,500. Will Smith returned to the lineup and picks up as one of the top MLB DFS catchers for just $4,900 where the position is required. Smith has three home runs and a .260 ISO in 62 plate appearances this year, he hit 24 with a .205 ISO last year and 25 with a .237 ISO the year before. Smith can be treated as an everyday position player on the blue site, his catcher eligibility does not mean he should be skipped. Max Muncy has 11 home runs and an absurd .425 ISO in 103 plate appearances this year, with extraordinary premium contact numbers at a 27.1% barrel rate and a 50% hard-hit. Jason Heyward slots in at $2,500/$2,600 in the projected lineup, he has been productive over 62 opportunities with three home runs and a 126 WRC+ to go with his .240 ISO and 58.5% hard-hit rate. A full season of this production from Heyward would be stunning at this point in his career, but there is no arguing with the early results and he remains underpriced while probably lagging in popularity. James Outman has a 6.21 in our home run model, he has hit seven this year with a terrific .323 ISO over 109 plate appearances, the lefty rookie has a 19% barrel rate so far this year, he is cheap at $4,400/$3,300 but he has gained attention from the MLB DFS public. Miguel Vargas, David Peralta, and Chris Taylor make up a sturdy bottom-third despite the results early in 2023, they are useable mix-and-match parts at worst.
Play: Phillies bats/stacks, Dodgers bats/stacks, very minor Walker value shares
Update Notes: Chris Taylor is not in the lineup, Michael Busch slots in as a cheap low-end infield option.
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