In an effort to make today’s mixed-slate content more user-friendly, we’re cutting the FanDuel main slate games (and DraftKings afternoon slate) from the original article and creating a separate post for the 4:10 pm games on both sites. A portion of this content is duplicated from coverage of the 1 pm slate.
Welcome to the fantasy baseball coverage apocalypse. Today’s action is radically split between two wildly different slates from site to site, making it difficult to provide one snapshot of one slate, instead, we are going for full coverage in top gear mode and foregoing a show this afternoon. DraftKings is opting for a 1:10 start with 11 games that run through the afternoon games that commence at 4:10. FanDuel decided to skip the early games and the three 4:05 games, opting for a seven-game main slate that begins at 4:10 and includes the 10:07 Mariners vs Angels game in a bizarre decision. Only the three games that start at 4:10 are on both slates, they are the Athletics vs Brewers, Rangers vs Rays, and Nationals vs Braves games, three of those teams land at or near the top of power the board on both slates. The slate features a long list of pitchers, but there are a number of easily targeted starters and this is shaping up like a day to win with bats on both sites.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Snapshot DraftKings Afternoon & FanDuel Main Slate – 6/10/23
* Note: the first three games are on the DraftKings afternoon slate but not the FanDuel main slate.
Kansas City Royals (+138/4.10) @ Baltimore Orioles (-150/5.00)
The Royals and Orioles square off in Baltimore with Cole Irvin on the hill for the home team. Irvin has a 20% strikeout rate and 12.3% walk rate in his three starts this year, he struck out 17.3% in 181 innings and 30 starts last year while pitching to a 3.98 ERA and 4.35 xFIP and he gave up above-average premium contact. Irvin seems more targetable than playable in this spot, though the Royals have been lousy for strikeouts and have loaned upside to a variety of starting pitchers this season. For $6,200 there is a smidge of potential for Irvin, but he is not one of our preferred value SP2s. The Royals lineup can produce power but they have a significant strikeout problem. The projected lineup opens with Maikel Garcia up top, he has a 26.5% strikeout rate with an 85 WRC+ and only one home run with five steals. Bobby Witt Jr. slots in second ahead of MJ Melendez and Sal Perez, creating a strong power trio in the 2-4 spots. Witt has 10 home runs and 20 stolen bases, Melendez has struggled for stats with just five home runs, but his 12.2% barrel rate and 54.7% hard-hit mark are top-notch, and Perez has 12 home runs to lead the team. Edward Olivares and Nick Pratto are good options in the middle of the lineup. Olivares has a bit of power and speed but just a 93 WRC+ in 170 plate appearances, he is unlikely to be popular. Lefty-hitting Pratto has a 138 WRC+ in 151 strong plate appearances with four home runs, he is slashing .300/.391/.462 and might be the team’s best pure hitter. Freddy Fermin, Matt Duffy, and Drew Waters close things out.
The Orioles will face Brady Singer who has not been very good through most of this season after a strong campaign last year. Singer put up a 24.2% strikeout rate with a 3.23 ERA and 3.30 xFIP in 153.1 innings and 24 starts last year, he was expected to make another step forward but now has a 6.45 ERA and 4.42 xFIP. His strikeouts have also fallen off year-over-year, he is working at just a 20.5% rate over 60 innings and 12 starts in 2023. Singer has been targetable for power and run creation this season, the Orioles have a good opportunity and a 5.0-run implied total, at $5,800 Singer is at best a longshot dart throw. Adam Frazier is back in the leadoff spot, he is slashing just .235/.297/.390 with a 91 WRC+ in 221 plate appearances. Adley Rutschman has a 129 WRC+ with eight home runs and a .139 ISO this season, he is a high end catcher option on most slates and is very difficult to strike out, which should be problematic for Singer. Austin Hays homered out of the leadoff spot last night and might find himself hitting third today. Hays is having a good year at the plate, slashing .306/.344/.502 with a 133 WRC+ and seven home runs. Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle will provide power upside from the fourth and sixth spots in the lineup, what Aaron Hicks will do from the fifth spot is anyone’s guess. Hicks washed out with the Yankees and caught on in Baltimore, he still has the ability to see pitches and draw a walk and can turn on one from time to time, but he has not been good overall in 103 plate appearances this year. Santander and Mountcastle are far more interesting hitters for $4,400 and $4,500. Gunnar Henderson is slashing .220/.342/.411 with a .190 ISO, seven home runs, and four stolen bases and has been coming on strong, but he remains cheap at $3,600 at third base. Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo are playable options late in the lineup.
Play: Orioles bats/stacks, minor shares of Royals bats/stacks
Update Notes: the Orioles have Henderson in the leadoff role, which is a good spot for him, Rutschman-Santander-Hays-Hicks-Ryan O’Hearn-Frazier-Josh Lester-Mateo follows in a less-than-stellar version of the Orioles lineup after the four spot. The Royals lineup runs Pratto-Perez-Melendez-Witt-Garcia-Michael Massey-Olivares-Waters-Fermin which gives a bump to Pratto.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-105/4.31) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-103/4.29)
Right-handed ace Aaron Nola will be on the mound to face the aggressively good Dodgers lineup this afternoon. Nola has a 4.30 ERA and 4.02 xFIP with a 23.6% strikeout rate over 81.2 innings in 13 starts in what has been a down season so far. The righty had a 29.1% strikeout rate last year and 29.8% mark the year before, so we are witnessing a major dropoff in strikeouts along with his inability to limit runs as effectively as we are accustomed to with this pitcher. Nola costs $10,300, and there is no discount for the struggles or for the difficult matchup, so the hope would have to be that the public is not as interested in the starter. Nola projects in the upper-middle of our pitching board, but we are used to seeing him at the top. Expectations have to be somewhat tempered at this point with the Dodgers in town. At the same time, Nola’s talents have the Dodgers’ in check somewhat with only a 4.31-run implied team total. Mookie Betts is a star with second base and outfield eligibility for $6,200. Freddie Freeman is slashing .335/.407/.576 with a 163 WRC+ over 295 plate appearances this year, he has 12 home runs and eight stolen bases and is one of the best first basemen on any slate. Will Smith has a team-leading 14.84 in our home run model, the hyper-talented backstop is slashing .297/.399/.519 with a .222 ISO and nine home runs in 193 plate appearances while striking out just 11.4% of the time. Max Muncy and JD Martinez have ISOs of .292 and .349, with Martinez carrying the bigger number. They have hit a combined 33 home runs, Muncy leads there with 18. The duo is outstanding for power against anyone, there could be major upside for power in the Philadelphia bandbox, at just $5,000 and $5,300, the two sluggers are significant buys when rostering stacks of Dodgers. David Peralta, Miguel Vargas, Jason Heyward, and Miguel Rojas round out the projected batting order. Heyward and Vargas are the more interesting names in the group but the team’s primary quality is in their 1-5.
The Phillies are facing rookie Bobby Miller, who will be making his fourth start. Miller has a 25% strikeout rate and a sparkling 1.06 ERA with a more honest but still good 3.22 xFIP under the covers. The righty has walked just 6.3% while allowing just 4.5% barrels and zero home runs in his first 17 innings. At just $7,000, Miller is in play despite a not-easy matchup and a bad ballpark environment this afternoon. The righty will have to navigate a lineup that includes Kyle Schwarber in the leadoff spot once again. Schwarber has 17 home runs on the season with a 110 WRC+ and .268 ISO, he is a star power hitter for $5,200 even against the premium pitching prospect. Nick Castellanos has seven home runs while slashing .314/.361/.494 with a 130 WRC+ over 266 plate appearances but costs just $4,700 between Schwarber and Bryce Harper. Harper has three home runs and a 125 WRC+ in his 140 plate appearances since returning in early May. The outstanding outfielder has a $6,000 price tag but he is worth the investment when one is rostering stacks of Phillies today. Trea Turner and JT Realmuto are stars at their positions, even with Turner’s struggles he remains one of the best day-to-day players at shortstop, particularly as his price declines. For just $5,500 he is a bargain given the talent in play. Realmuto costs just $5,000, he has five home runs and nine stolen bases but a 91 WRC+, almost directly in line with Bryson Stott, who has matching home run and steals totals and a 92 WRC+ in 266 opportunities. Brandon Marsh and Kody Clemens have good left-handed power from late in the lineup, Marsh has five home runs and a 113 WRC+ over 210 plate appearances, Clemens is at four home runs and a 106 WRC+ and both players have ISOs in the .170s. Drew Ellis rounds out the lineup.
Play: four corners game: Aaron Nola in moderate doses, Phillies bats/stacks, Dodgers bats/stacks, Bobby Miller value
Update Notes: the Dodgers will have their lineup in its projected form from 1-7 with Chris Taylor and James Outman upgrading the final two spots and both Miguels out of the lineup. The Phillies have their expected lineup in place.
New York Mets (-125/4.78) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+114/4.33)
The Mets and Pirates square off in Pittsburgh with a duel between effective starters Johan Ovideo and Kodai Senga. Ovideo has a 19.5% strikeout rate and an inflated 10.8% walk rate this year while pitching to a 4.29 ERA and 4.72 xFIP over 65 innings. He will be facing a limited Mets lineup that is without star Pete Alonso for the next month or so, which should knock them out of contention for good this season. Without their slugger, the Mets are a somewhat non-threatening lineup, but they have a 4.78-run implied total with Oviedo’s lack of strikeouts and inability to limit free passes this season. Oviedo is cheap at $7,500 and he has a bit of playability today, but he does not project overly well and the run total is daunting with many good options available. At the same time, one does not necessarily want to rush to the store to buy Mets shares. The team should have a decent top end, with dynamite leadoff man Brandon Nimmo leading the way. Nimmo hits from the left side and has a 125 WRC+ over 281 plate appearances for just $4,100. The outfielder can be used as a correlated scoring play with shortstop Francisco Lindor who has 12 home runs and should hit cleanup. If rookie catcher Francisco Alvarez slots in second again he is also a part of that stack, Alvarez has 11 home runs and a .295 ISO over 142 plate appearances but could see a day off with Omar Narvaez back in the fold. Jeff McNeil is a slap-hitting correlated scorer who does not belong hitting third, but he is a useable piece with low expectations for MLB DFS purposes. Brett Baty is a high-end young player who came up as a top prospect 156 plate appearances ago. He has a 94 WRC+ and four home runs since the call-up but his 50% hard-hit rate is outstanding and gives one expectation for more. Starling Marte, Daniel Vogelbach, Mark Vientos, and Luis Guillorme round out the lineup. Vientos is another major prospect for this team, he has significant power and hit 13 home runs in AAA this year prior to his call-up.
The Pirates draw Senga, who has a 29.1% strikeout rate but a 14.3% walk rate this season. The righty has made outstanding starts and mediocre starts and has been a bit of a roller coaster through his first 11 starts in the Show, but the strikeout upside is undeniable and has appeal at $9,800. Senga has a 3.75 ERA and 3.96 xFIP, his WHIP is inflated by the walks at 1.44 but he has a very good 12.3% swinging-strike rate and has been able to punch his way out of jams while limiting power potential for opposing teams with just a 2.79% home run rate. Senga will have gamers on the edge of their seats, but he has the potential for a strong DraftKings score for the money. The Pirates are playable as a mid-range stacking option, with the idea of some free chances in play from Senga’s walks. Tucupita Marcano has three home runs and four stolen bases in 128 plate appearances. Bryan Reynolds has hit seven home runs and stolen eight bases, but five of the home runs came before April 15th. Overall he has a 119 WRC+ and has been very good, but his ISO has dipped to .194 and it would be nice to see more frequent power. Andrew McCutchen has a 124 WRC+ with eight home runs and seven steals, most of which was fairly unexpected when the veteran signed in Pittsburgh for what we assumed was a farewell tour. The outfielder has a lot left in the tank at $4,400 on DraftKings this afternoon. Carlos Santana has not been good this season, he has four home runs and a .135 ISO, but Jack Suwinski has been very good this season with 12 home runs and a .267 ISO, they should switch places in this batting order. Ke’Bryan Hayes had a huge day at the plate on Friday, he now sits at .266/.309/.425 with a 97 WRC+ and four home runs, adding seven steals in what suddenly looks like a better line. As we have pointed out, Hayes has been carrying a terrific hard-hit rate all year, indicating there is more to come, hopefully, last night was the start of something not just an outburst from a hitter with a 49.2% hard-hit rate. Ji-Hwan Bae, Josh Palacios, and Austin Hedges round out the projected lineup.
Play: Kodai Senga, Mets bats/stacks, only minor shares of Pirates or Ovideo values
Update Notes: Pittsburgh’s lineup runs McCutchen-Reynolds-Connor Joe-Santana-Suwinski-Hayes-Bae-Marcano-Jason Delay, with Palacios and Hedges taking a seat. Bump to McCutchen, Joe is a nice addition to the lineup and Delay is a good sneaky catcher bat at a cheap price. the Mets lineup runs Nimmo-Alvarez-McNeil-Lindor-Marte-Baty-Pham-Guillorme-Mark Canha.
Note: The following games make up the FanDuel main slate, with the first three also on the DraftKings afternoon slate.
Oakland Athletics (+164/3.89) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-180/5.22)
The first of the final three games on board for DraftKings is also the first for the FanDuel slate. The Athletics and Brewers square off in a low-end contest that has Milwaukee once again carrying an inflated run total at 5.22. The visiting Athletics are in a much worse situation in Vegas with just a 3.89 total against righty Julio Teheran, who has defied odds and logic in his return to the mound. Teheran has a 1.56 ERA but a 4.84 xFIP and just a 15.4% strikeout rate over 17.1 innings and three starts. Teheran has allowed a 5.7% barrel rate and 37.7% hard hits with a 3.08% home run rate and 90.6 mph of average exit velocity, we remain unconvinced and expect the center to crumble in this situation. Teheran costs $8,700 on both sites and projects as a decent play with an upper-middle spot on our pitching board, part of which come from the stellar matchup against the Athletics. Oakland’s projected lineup includes Esteury Ruiz, a speed-burner with 30 stolen bases in 278 plate appearances this year; Ryan Noda who would have 50 stolen bases already if he had Ruiz’s speed, given his .410 on-base percentage. Noda has seven home runs and a 154 WRC+ as the best player on this team so far in 2023. Seth Brown is a talented lefty with power and speed, he went 25/11 last season and sits with three home runs and two steals after 94 plate appearances this year. Ramon Laureano lands in the cleanup role for $2,600/$2,700 in the outfield. Laureano has five home runs and six stolen bases this year and has posted previous years of double-digits in both arenas, he went 13/11 last season and 14/12 the year before. Jace Peterson is a lefty infielder for $2,200/$2,500 with moderate power upside against Teheran, JJ Bleday offers the same at cheap pricing in the outfield, while Shea Langeliers is an underrated catcher with a bit of home run potential. The backstop has eight homers in 214 plate appearances this season. Kevin Smith rounds out the lineup, the filmmaker of the same name would be almost as effective a hitter.
The Brewers are facing Paul Blackburn who is pushing their expected run total way up. Blackburn has a 6.00 ERA and 4.37 xFIP in a pair of starts so far this year but was at just a 4.28 ERA and 3.89 xFIP with a 19.1% strikeout rate over 111.1 innings in 21 starts last year. Blackburn is not a terrible pitcher, but he is also not an intimidating or overly talented one, he allows average power and strikes hitters out at a below-average rate, making him a target more than an option at $6,400/$6,600. The Brewers lineup has seen a few players return in recent days and they have oddball options at low prices on a regular basis. The projected batting order includes Christian Yelich who has a 105 WRC+ with seven home runs and 16 stolen bases this season for $4,800/$3,500. Willy Adames is back in the lineup, he has 10 home runs in 227 plate appearances with a .187 ISO but a limited 85 WRC+ for $4,200/$3,000 at shortstop. Rowdy Tellez has a team-leading 12.34 mark in our home run model with 12 on the board for the season. Owen Miller and Jon Singleton land fourth and fifth, Miller has hit four home runs and is having a solid year with a 120 WRC+ over 10 plate appearances, Singleton is a quad-A power hitter who has zero home runs and a .053 ISO with a 10 WRC+ over 20 plate appearances and has never done much at this level. Joey Wiemer, Brian Anderson, Victor Caratini, and Luis Urias round out the lineup, Urias is the most interesting option with his power upside for $3,500/$2,300 with multi-position eligibility on both sites. At his FanDuel price and with three positions, Urias is a strong buy regardless of where he hits in the lineup, he fills three positions on the blue site and is very cheap for a player who hit 16 home runs last year and 23 the year before.
Play: Brewers bats/stacks, Julio Teheran in small doses that we don’t trust at all, minor shares of Athletics bats if desired or if Teheran gets popular
Update Notes: the Brewers confirmed their lineup with Yelich-Adames-Tellez-Miller-Singleton-Anderson-Wiemer-Caratini-Andruw Monasterio who costs $2,500/$2,700 with eligibility at second base and shortstop on DraftKings.
Texas Rangers (-104/4.04) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-104/4.04)
The battle between two of baseball’s best offensive teams has both squads landing at 4.04-run implied totals in a pick’em game in Vegas. The lack of run expectation is entirely due to the presence of Taj Bradley and Nathan Eovaldi on the mound for their respective teams. Bradley has been outstanding as a rookie for Tampa Bay, posting a 33.1% strikeout rate with a 3.60 ERA and 2.89 xFIP over 35 innings and seven starts this year. The righty costs $9,300/$10,100 in a very difficult matchup, but his talent has so far been undeniable on the mound. Bradley has induced an 11% swinging-strike rate and has limited barrels to just 4.5% with a 2.76% home run rate. The Rangers’ intimidating lineup could certainly get to the rookie, which could make the path to success somewhat thinner than usual on both sides of the equation. Texas bats are not off the table, but the message in the run total is clear, the expectation should not be for their typical output of either power or run creation. Marcus Semien and Corey Seager will try to make liars out of the oddsmakers early, the outstanding duo has power and speed and excellent run creation ability from the first two spots in the lineup for $5,900/$4,400 each. Nathaniel Lowe has seven home runs and a 121 WRC+ despite a dip in his triple-slash and power output overall this season. He is a good buy that helps afford his teammates at $4,600/$3,400. Adolis Garcia is our overall home run pick for the day, he has a 13.38 in our model and is one of several Rangers hitters showing upside for power despite the presence of the premium rookie on the mound. Garcia has 15 home runs and a .238 ISO this season. Josh Jung has 13 homers and a .227 ISO with a 138 WRC+ over 252 plate appearances in a big step forward in 2023. Jonah Heim and Mitch Garver both have upside at the catcher spot for $4,500/$3,400 and $4,200/$3,300. Garver has three home runs in 44 plate appearances and hit 23 over the past two seasons, Heim has seven this year in 211 opportunities. Robbie Grossman and Leody Taveras round out the projected lineup.
The Rays will have to answer back against Nathan Eovaldi who has been one of the top options in the game for most of the season. Eovaldi has a 2.24 ERA and 3.30 xFIP with a 0.93 WHIP and 25.2% strikeout rate over 80.1 innings and 12 starts. The righty has been pitching deep into ballgames and chasing wins and quality starts throughout and his strikeout upside has improved year-over-year while he has maintained his long-standing ability to limit walks to under five percent. Eovaldi is worth the $11,000 price tag on either site, even with the Rays on the other side of the matchup. The hope at his price and with this opponent is that he will be somewhat less popular than he should be for MLB DFS action. Those wishing to roster Rays against Eovaldi have an entire nine-man lineup from which to choose hitters, the team has been good top to bottom in basically any configuration this year. The projected lineup includes Yandy Diaz, who has 12 home runs and a 176 WRC+ over 233 plate appearances; Wander Franco, who has seven homers and 22 stolen bases with a 138 WRC+ for $5,800/$4,100 at shortstop; and Josh Lowe who slots in at $4,800/$3,600 in the outfield. Lowe has 11 home runs and 14 stolen bases with a .251 ISO and 149 WRC+ over 197 plate appearances in what is becoming a real performance. Randy Arozarena is an excellent outfielder who has 12 home runs to lead the team and adds nine stolen bases and a 158 WRC+ over 266 opportunities. Arozarena has a 14.8% barrel rate and 50.6% hard-hit rate, both of which fall behind Luke Raley who sits at 17.4% and 55.4% in 161 plate appearances sample to lead the team in contact. Raley has turned that premium contact into 11 home runs and a .329 ISO so far. Isaac Paredes also has 11 home runs, he has a .233 ISO, and 144 WRC+ in 213 plate appearances while Taylor Walls has seven home runs in 183 opportunities with 15 steals. Jose Siri adds yet another 11 home runs to the team’s ridiculous tally, he has a 130 WRC+ in 135 plate appearances and is valuable anywhere in the lineup for $3,800/$3,600. Francisco Mejia is a backup catcher who is the statistically weak link in the excellent projected lineup.
Play: any of the four corners in this one is in play and can be deployed at will, the pitchers are probably ahead of the hitters but it is not a wide gap on any side.a
Update Notes:
Washington Nationals (+160/4.36) @ Atlanta Braves (-175/5.77)
The final game on the DraftKings slate will see a divisional contest between the annoying Nationals and the outstanding Braves. The Atlanta squad was mostly shut down after flashing upside for power against Josiah Gray yesterday, and they will be facing a better starter in MacKenzie Gore on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Nationals will have to contend with lefty Jared Shuster, which puts them on the better side of their team splits. Washington has been far better at hitting left-handed pitching than righties this season, they are in play against Shuster, particularly with the southpaw pitching in somewhat low-end form. Shuster has a 4.99 ERA and 6.19 xFIP with a limited 16.2% strikeout rate and an ugly 14.6% walk rate, he is not an option at $6,700/$7,100. The Nationals lineup includes Lane Thomas, who has a 113 WRC+ with nine home runs and who is substantially better against lefties. Thomas is a good starting point at $4,400/$3,200, he can be played with Luis Garcia an effective enough infielder at cheap prices, as well as better options like Joey Meneses, who is up to a 105 WRC+ overall and has a bit of power and a good bat on the right side of the plate, and Stone Garrett who has two home runs with a .108 ISO but a 52.9% hard-hit rate that suggests far more righty power to come. Jeimer Candelario is better for power against righties but has hit lefties for a better average and run creation in his career, though that is not the case this year with basically all of his upside coming against righties. Keibert Ruiz is a playable catcher with power potential that has been examined in this space recently. At just $3,700/$2,900, Ruiz is in play against the limited lefty. Dominic Smith, Alex Call, and Ildemaro Vargas round out the projected Nationals’ lineup.
The Braves are basically in play any day, the team runs 1-9 with quality on most nights, and they have power up and down the lineup that can bend an MLB DFS slate in an instant. The matchup against Gore is an interesting one, the lefty has a 29.2% strikeout rate over 12 starts and 64 innings, but he has also walked 10.2% while allowing a nine percent barrel rate with 42.8% hard hits and a 3.28% home run rate that could play well for Atlanta’s lineup. Gore is in play at $8,900/$9,000, he has demonstrated the talent and the strikeout acumen to get through this lineup cleanly while posting a strong score, but he is far from a lock or someone to whom gamers should get over-exposed, which should be perfectly clear from Atlanta’s 5.77-run implied team total. Ronald Acuna Jr. cost $6,400/$4,600, he has a dozen home runs and 28 stolen bases and is one of the best players in the sport. Matt Olson is slightly more affordable at $5,800/$3,900 but there is no real reason he should be much cheaper with 17 home runs and a .265 ISO while creating runs 27% better than average at first base. Austin Riley slumped for a minute but is back on track and now has 11 home runs with a 116 WRC+ over 276 plate appearances. Ozzie Albies is hitting cleanup in the confirmed lineup, with Sean Murphy getting the day off. Albies will be more popular than usual in this role, he is always underrated and under-owned, today he is just inexpensive for his upside in the role. Albies has 14 home runs and a .228 ISO this season. Travis d’Arnaud will do the catching today, he is a step down from Murphy, but almost anyone would be. d’Arnaud is no slouch, he hit 18 home runs in 426 plate appearances last year and has significant upside in the heart of the lineup at $4,100/$2,600. Marcell Ozuna has major power and has hit 12 home runs this year but is limited in most other aspects of the game. Orlando Arcia is a great piece of positional value in the infield while Kevin Pillar is more of a defensive outfielder but has six home runs this year. Michael Harris II has three homers and five steals with a 57 WRC+ in 151 plate appearances in a tough second season, but we believe in the talent and the price is cheap and declining.
Play: Nationals bats/stacks, Braves bats/stacks, MacKenzie Gore in small doses
Update Notes: the Braves lineup was confirmed in the original draft
Houston Astros (+119/3.81) @ Cleveland Guardians (-129/4.28)
The Astros and Guardians continue their series with an interesting pitching matchup that will see Triston McKenzie on the mound for the Guardians. The righty dazzled over in his first start back from the injured list, posting a ridiculous 87% whiff rate on his slider and 40%+ overall while striking out an absurd 10 of 17 hitters he faced over five innings. McKenzie may have a slightly longer leash in tonight’s start, but that does not appear to matter much if he is planning on pitching like that again. The Vegas oddsmakers seem to think that type of outing is in play, the Astros are checked to just a 3.81-run implied team total, with Yordan Alvarez on the injured list and much of the lineup struggling overall. McKenzie is an excellent pitcher when he is healthy, he had a 25.6% strikeout rate with a 2.96 ERA and 3.77 xFIP over 30 starts and 191.1 innings in 2022 and was equally effective over 24 starts in 2021. At $10,800, McKenzie is an expensive but worthwhile investment on the FanDuel main slate. The Astros projected lineup opens with Jeremy Pena, but we may see Mauricio Dubon in this spot. Either player is a lower-end leadoff option than Jose Altuve, but the team will sensibly slide him down the lineup to help cover the absence of Alvarez. Pena has eight home runs and six stolen bases, he has been stuck around those totals for some time now and is slashing just .256/.309/.430 with a .174 ISO and 105 WRC+. Altuve has a pair of home runs and a 111 WRC+ in 64 plate appearances since his return, he hit 28 home runs and stole 18 bases last year and is a star at second base for just $3,500. Kyle Tucker is a lefty power hitter with a stolen base upside, he hit 30 home runs and stole 25 bags last year and was a 30/14 player the season before. For just $3,400 in the outfield, we are happy to ignore a minor dip in output so far this season. Tucker has eight home runs and 10 stolen bases but his ISO has dropped from .221 last year and .263 the year before to just .165 so far. He has created runs 17% better than average, but he was 29% better than average last year and 47% ahead of the curve the season before. Tucker’s contact profile suggests that the dip will not be ongoing, his 8.1% barrel rate is down two points year-over-year but that is easily corrected and his hard-hit rate is actually well up, going from 41.9% to 48.2%. Tucker has struck out less and walked more this season as well, everything will fall into place for the star outfielder, take the discount. Alex Bregman costs $3,100 at third base, he has an 8.07 in our home run model with nine in the books and a 112 WRC+ this season. Jose Abreu has a pulse! The struggling former star hit his second home run of the season last night, he has a .059 ISO and 55 WRC+ and is hopefully on the rise. Abreu costs just $2,400 and is ever-present in the heart of the Astros lineup, struggles or no. Corey Julks and Chas McCormick are playable outfielders. McCormick is our preference given his talent for hitting baseballs hard. He has a .200 ISO and five home runs in 125 plate appearances this year. Julks has had big games for MLB DFS gamers, including in the past few days. He costs just $2,800 as a mix-and-match option whose truth is more around the .140 ISO and 88 WRC+ he has posted over 170 plate appearances. Jake Meyers and Martin Maldonado round out the projected lineup, either can contribute to a stack and can be rostered in small doses if one opts for numerous iterations of Astros.
The Guardians have been frisky over the past two days, Josh Naylor has come on for the season overall and Jose Ramirez has almost doubled his previous home run total in two days after hitting his 10th of the year last night. The team will be facing righty JP France, who has been effective in six starts and 34 innings this season. France has a 3.44 ERA and 4.27 xFIP with a 1.15 WHIP but he has allowed some power and is limited when it comes to strikeouts. The righty has just a 20.6% strikeout rate but he has walked only 6.4% and his 10.8% swinging-strike rate and 29.9% CSW% are both strong, suggesting he is just not putting Major League hitters away yet, despite throwing strikes. His bigger issue comes from a 9.8% barrel rate and 4.96% home run rate allowed so far this season, with opposing hitters generating 88.8 mph of average exit velocity and 38.2% hard hits, neither of which are tragic numbers for contact. A lot of France’s downside is probably small sample happenstance, but his lack of strikeout potential against an already low-strikeout Guardians lineup makes him difficult to roster at $8,100. The righty will be facing Steven Kwan in the leadoff spot. Kwan was better last year but he remains excellent at putting the ball in play, his strikeout rate is just 12.5% after putting up a 9.4% last season. The outfielder’s WRC+ is down from 124 to 93 however, which follows a dip in his triple-slash from a robust .298/.373/.400 to just .257/.337/.348 this year. Amed Rosario hit 11 home runs and stole 18 bases last year while posting a good triple-slash but he has fallen apart so far in 2023 with a 67 WRC+ and .093 ISO. Rosario has one home run this season but he is at least cheap for $2,700 at shortstop. Ramirez has a 122 WRC+ and a .220 ISO to go with his newly flashy home run total. Three days ago he was about to dip below the league-average mark for WRC+ so this is a nice turnaround in short form, the hope is that the superstar will remain awake at the plate going forward, he is still very cheap for his talent at just $3,300. Naylor has eight home runs and a .185 ISO and costs $3,000 at first base. Josh Bell is another first baseman, he comes in $300 less expensive than Naylor but has done less at the plate. Bell has three home runs and a .123 ISO with an 91 WRC+ in his 236 plate appearances this year. Andres Gimenez has three homers and seven stolen bases with an 83 WRC+ and has seen his price dip along with his output. The toolsy infielder has not done much this year but his price is just $2,600 at second base in a decent matchup. Will Brennan is slashing .270/.309/.408 with a 97 WRC+ he is playable for $2,400 late in the lineup but he is not a high-end option, which is also true of Myles Straw – to a lesser extent on the playable part – and Cam Gallagher.
Play: Triston McKenzie, Guardians bats/stacks as a mid-range option
Update Notes:
Boston Red Sox (+107/4.17) @ New York Yankees (-116/4.42)
The old-time rivals in the AL East will get together in the Bronx tonight in a fairly even matchup between Domingo German and Tanner Houck. The Yankees’ righty will be making his 12th start of what has been a fairly effective season on the mound. German has a 3.69 ERA and 4.03 xFIP over 61 innings. He has allowed a bit too much premium contact with a 9.4% barrel rate and 40% hard-hit rate, but opponents have managed just an 87.9 mph average exit velocity against him and his home run rate sits at 3.73% after a bumpy start to the season followed by a clean stretch for power before he gave up a home run in each of the last two games. German has a 24.5% strikeout rate and an excellent 14.4% swinging-strike rate with a 30.6% CSW%. The surprising strike-throwing has German ranked seventh among pitchers with more than 50 innings this year by CSW% and ties him for fifth with Pablo Lopez of the Twins by swinging-strike rate. The pitchers ahead of them on the board are Spencer Strider, Luis Castillo, Shane McClanahan, and Clayton Kershaw, with Max Scherzer sitting just behind German at a 14.3% swinging-strike rate and Shohei Ohtani landing all the way at 10th with a 13.7%. All of which is to say that German has been surprisingly effective at throwing strikes this season and should probably have a higher overall strikeout rate. For $8,500, the Yankees’ righty is very much in play for the FanDuel main slate tonight. The Red Sox lineup is also an option, German has allowed enough power and run creation and they are in a game at Yankee Stadium, which can play to power easily. Alex Verdugo should be in his familiar leadoff spot, the outfielder had a spat with his manager about his hustle and was benched for a game, but he was back last night and is an excellent left-handed leadoff hitter who has created runs 23% better than average. Masataka Yoshida has a 137 WRC+ to lead the team, the left-handed outfielder has seven home runs and a .173 ISO in his 247 plate appearances. Justin Turner and Rafael Devers have 21 combined home runs, the excellent Devers has 14 of them with a 108 WRC+ and a .243 ISO. Turner has been productive and has a 104 WRC+ in 262 plate appearances, the veteran costs just $2,900 at first or third base. Adam Duvall is back in the Red Sox lineup, the slugger hit four home runs in his first week or so of the season then went on the injured list, he returned last night and still has those same four home runs. Jarren Duran is playable in the outfield, he has good mid-range power and speed and costs just $2,800. Christian Arroyo, Reese McGuire, and Enrique Hernandez are cheap mix-and-match parts late in the lineup.
The Yankees are facing groundballer Tanner Houck, who has a 5.46 ERA but a 3.72 xFIP that suggests he has been fairly unlucky. Houck was very good in a hybrid role last season he had a 3.15 ERA and 3.68 xFIP with a 22.7% strikeout rate in four starts and 60 innings total. The righty has a 22.8% strikeout rate this season and his swinging-strike rate sits at 13% after he posted a 12.9% last season. His CSW% has climbed even higher, last year he was at 28.6% and this season he sits at 30.4%, so there has been growth despite what the ERA may suggest. Houck has a bit of potential for success at $7,300, he is projecting in the middle of the pitching slate and is one of the best value options on the single-starter site, particularly given the noteworthy lack of Aaron Judge in the New York lineup. The Yankees are projected to have Willie Calhoun in the leadoff spot, but DJ LeMahieu occupied that role last night with Gleyber Torres getting the night off. The best configuration would probably be with LeMahieu in the leadoff role followed by Torres and Calhoun working as a minor league hitting instructor somewhere in the system, but here we are. Calhoun has four home runs and a 99 WRC+ over 133 plate appearances. Torres has 10 homers and a 110 WRC+ in 270 opportunities and has been good at limiting strikeouts and drawing walks this year. Anthony Rizzo slots in third, the star third baseman has 11 home runs with a 124 WRC+ this season and has been the lone consistent presence in this roller coaster lineup. Giancarlo Stanton should be hitting cleanup, the powerhouse designated hitter is an outfielder on FanDuel for just $3,700, which is very cheap given his tremendous power. Stanton is one of his generation’s best home run hitters and he is fully healthy at the discounted price. Jake Bauers and Josh Donaldson are all-or-nothing power hitters in the heart of the lineup at cheap prices. Donaldson hit his fifth home run in just 38 plate appearances and third since his return last week just last night, and Bauers has five in 90 plate appearances. Billy McKinney has a home run in his 10 fill-in plate appearances so far. The quad-A talent costs just $2,300 in the outfield. Jose Trevino and Anthony Volpe close out the lineup, Volpe has only been valuable in unpredictable outbursts, he has nine home runs and 14 stolen bases but gets on at just a .264 clip and has a .162 ISO with a 71 WRC+ while striking out 30.5% of the time, none of which is a viable long-term combination.
Play: all four corners are OK here, German is the top option followed by Houck, then basically a tie between the two teams for bats.
Update Notes:
Chicago Cubs (+136/3.89) @ San Francisco Giants (-148/4.71)
The Cubs have a matchup against opener John Brebbia who will be followed by bulk reliever Jakob Junis. Brebbia has worked several games as an opener this season, typically pitching just the first inning. Overall, he has a 32.7% strikeout rate but does not seem viable on FanDuel. Junis costs just $6,800 on the slate and checks in with a 26.9% strikeout rate in 32.2 innings of bulk relief work this year. He has a 3.86 ERA and a 3.81 xFIP while inducing a 10.7% swinging-strike rate and a very good 31.3% CSW%. Junis has allowed too much power, his 4.14% home run rate and 10% barrel rate make it tougher to endorse him at a cheap price with the inability to book a quality start. The play is very thin for those who want it, but we have seen big scores from pitchers in this role play well in large-field FanDuel contests this year. The Cubs are a mid-range option with their 3.89-run implied team total. The lineup is projected to take its usual form, with Nico Hoerner in the leadoff spot for $3,300 at second base. Hoerner has four home runs and 14 stolen bases in 249 plate appearances while creating runs exactly at league average. Dansby Swanson has a 13.1% barrel rate and 43.4% hard-hit rate this year with six home runs and four stolen bases. He has been a more productive shortstop for counting stats in the past, last year he hit 25 home runs and stole 18 bases. Swanson still has a 111 WRC+ for the season and is underpriced at $3,000. Ian Happ costs $2,900 in the outfield as another discounted Cubs player who has talent and has been productive. Happ has been 20% better than average for run creation this season and he has four home runs in the books. The outfielder hit for more power in seasons past, he had 17 home runs last year and 25 the year before, he is cheap and will be low-owned with a 6.88 in our home run model and a bit of upside for sneaky power. Seiya Suzuki has a 124 WRC+ and a .367 on-base percentage, which makes him typical of the top end of this club. For whatever they are worth, this group of four hitters has an average on-base percentage of .362 with Hoerner on the low end at .337 (so naturally the Cubs have him leading off) and Happ leading the way at .390. Mike Tauchman and Trey Mancini are cheap options for a low-owned home run at $2,300 and $2,500, Mancini has first base eligibility in addition to the outfield eligibility the low-end hitters share. Mancini is also the far better player historically, Tauchman has never been a Major League regular. Matt Mervis is hoping to become a Major League regular one day. So far he has a .169/.247/.273 triple-slash and two home runs in 85 tries, he will have to do more. Miles Mastrobuoni and Tucker Barnhart round out the projected Cubs batting order.
The Giants are facing limited righty Kyle Hendricks, who has made three starts this year and has a 4.70 ERA with a 5.16 xFIP. Hendricks has a 17.6% strikeout rate in the tiny sample, a mark that is consistent with his levels over the past few seasons, which is also true of his run totals so far. The soft-tosser is at his very best a league-average righty, he is typically below average and can be targeted with Giants hitters who come in with a 4.71-run implied team total. San Francisco’s projected lineup opens with LaMonte Wade Jr. who gets on base at a .420 clip with a 149 WRC+ so far this season. The cheap first baseman has eight home runs and never gets the love he deserves, he costs just $3,100 on this slate and is carrying a 9.58 in our home run model. Joc Pederson is a very good lefty home run hitter, he has five on the season in just 115 plate appearances and he hit 23 in 433 chances last year. Pederson has a 15.5% barrel rate and 47.9% hard-hit rate for just $3,200 and he comes with a 10.68 mark in our home run model to lead the team. Thairo Estrada has seven homers and 14 stolen bases, he hit 14 home runs and stole 21 bases last year and seems to work in multiples of seven. Estrada is a talented option in the infield for $3,400 with eligibility at second base and shortstop on this afternoon’s slate. Michael Conforto, Mitch Haniger, and Mike Yastrzemski have a lot of left-handed power to throw at the mediocre righty, this could be a gauntlet of hitters from which Hendricks does not escape. Or the aggressive free-swingers could strike out nine times. Patrick Bailey, Casey Schmitt, and Brandon Crawford round out the Giants’ lineup as playable odds and ends.
Play: Giants bats/stacks, minor shares of Cubs bats
Update Notes:
Seattle Mariners (+120/4.27) @ Los Angeles Angels (-130/4.83)
The final game of the afternoon main slate on FanDuel starts at 10:07 pm – we’re pretty sure it’s the last one anyway, this has gotten ridiculous – and features a matchup between lefty Patrick Sandoval and rookie Bryan Woo who will be making his second start after a disastrous two-inning debut. Sandoval lands at just $7,500 against the high-strikeout Mariners because he has a limited 15.4% strikeout rate so far this year while pitching to just a 4.14 ERA and worse but more honest 4.78 xFIP in his 11 starts and 58.2 innings. The lefty has been typically good at limiting power, his 1.54% home run rate aligns well with last year’s 1.25% mark and his premium contact numbers are almost exact matches for last season’s output over 148.2 innings and 27 starts. Overall he has kept hard hits to just 33.7% this year with 87.4 mph of average exit velocity and a 6.7% barrel rate, all of which are good numbers. Sandoval also has an 11.3% swinging-strike rate with a 27.3% CSW%, he worked at a 23.7% strikeout rate with similar numbers for strike-throwing last year, though his CSW% is down two points. With the idea of more talent for strikeouts than has been on display so far this season and upside to at least provide clean innings while limiting home run power, Sandoval is not off the board at his cheap price. The relatively short slate will demand some interesting choices, he could free up a significant amount of salary while providing a sneaky-good start in this spot, though he does not project overly well in the median. The Mariners are playable against Sandoval, but at best expectations for home runs should be tempered, which takes away much of their appeal. JP Crawford has a 101 WRC+ and his on-base percentage is down to .342 after sitting in the .370-range when he was originally moved up to the leadoff spot, the opposite of what was intended. Julio Rodriguez is cheap at $3,700, he has 11 home runs and 12 stolen bases with a 109 WRC+ this season. Ty France is a capable hit-tool-focused player who has a .275/.342/.417 triple-slash and 119 WRC+ with five home runs on the season. Teoscar Hernandez strikes out too much but has 10 home runs to lead the projected lineup. Eugenio Suarez has six home runs with a .110 ISO and has been 17% below average for run creation so far this season. Tom Murphy, AJ Pollock, Dylan Moore, and Jose Caballero round out the projected Mariners lineup, but it may take a slightly different shape in the confirmed version.
Bryan Woo had the unfortunate task of debuting against the Rangers. It could have gone better. Woo lasted two innings over which he struck out four but allowed six earned runs on seven hits and a walk. The righty is a prized prospect in the Seattle system, one of many of their elite pitching prospects. While he struggled in his debut, Woo has a 34.3% strikeout rate in his 44 innings in AA this season and has rocketed up the ladder in the Seattle system. The Angels provide plenty of strikeout upside, but the team is loaded with star talent and Woo may have a difficult time in facing hitters like Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, to say nothing of other options including Anthony Rendon, Brandon Drury, and Hunter Renfroe. That is a long list of professional power hitters to which one could add Taylor Ward and Jared Walsh as well if they are in the lineup. Ward is projected to lead off, he has seven home runs and an 85 WRC+ in an up-and-down season but he hit 23 home runs and created runs 37% better than average last year. Ohtani has 17 home runs with a .282 ISO and 150 WRC+, Trout has 14 home runs with a .227 ISO and 132 WRC+, just play them in Angels stacks, don’t overthink it. Rendon is a good hitter who drives in runs and hits for average on his worst day, when he is healthy he is a run creation engine in this lineup and that is the cast at just $2,900 today. The third baseman has a .286/.404/.357 triple-slash with a 121 WRC+ in 141 plate appearances this year. Matt Thaiss is a quality catcher with a power bat in the fifth spot in the lineup, he has a 10.3% barrel rate and three home runs in 133 plate appearances. Drury has 10 homers, and Renfroe, who is returning from the paternity list, has 11. The duo should be hitting between fifth and eighth tonight, depending on what the team does with players like Walsh or Luis Rengifo in tonight’s lineup. Zach Neto is slated to close things out in the ninth spot, he has a playable hit tool that has not been on display much yet at the Major League level, which is why he is a cheap $2,600 shortstop.
Play: Patrick Sandoval value, Angels bats/stacks, Mariners bats/stacks. Bryan Woo value isn’t crazy at $5,600, he is a good prospect with strikeout upside in a not-great spot who seems unlikely to hit the quality start bonus.
Update Notes:
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