With another monster 12-game slate getting rolling at 1pm there is just not enough time in the morning for another 15,000-word review, we are in top gear this morning in an effort to provide a quick look at each game with enough time to be useful before lock.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, if a game has not been filled in simply check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability, but lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Summary Report – 4/15/23
Minnesota Twins (+118/4.05) @ New York Yankees (-128/4.54)
The Twins and Yankees are both drawing a fair amount of power in our home run model in this contest, despite plunging temperatures and a rainy day in the forecast in the Bronx. The Yankees are rolling out right-handed starter Domingo German, who has a 5.71% home run rate and a 4.75 xFIP so far this season. German made 14 starts and threw 72.1 innings in 2022, posting a 4.33 xFIP with a 3.69% home run rate and a 40.6% hard-hit percentage, he is vulnerable to power and his low strikeout rates do not inspire confidence that he can pitch his way out of trouble. The Twins look like a good opportunity for home runs and sequencing in what could be a high-scoring affair. German is only moderately playable in low doses at $7,500/$7,800. On the Twins side, rookie Edouard Julien has made a quick impression with a home run and a .300 ISO over his first 11 plate appearances. Julien costs $2,800/$2,500 and is projected to lead off, putting him in great correlated scoring position for MLB DFS. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton lead the way with a 10.94 and 15.87 in our home run model, both players have strong chances of going deep. They have two home runs each on the season, Correa has a .225 ISO, and Buxton is at .188. Lefty Trevor Larnach packs a punch as well, he hit five home runs with a .175 ISO in just 180 plate appearances last year but has just one and a .098 ISO to start this season. Jose Miranda has a sturdy hit tool and good mid-range power, he is a good play for sequencing and run creation, though he is currently at just a 57 WRC+ over 61 plate appearances. Last year, Miranda had a 117 mark in 446 tries. Max Kepler is in the projected Twins lineup, the lefty slugger would be a welcome addition and would provide a strong late power bat targeting the short porch in right field. Kepler hit just nine home runs in 446 opportunities in 2022 but he had 19 the year before. Donovan Solano and Michael A. Taylor are mix-and-match options with infrequent pop, Taylor hit two home runs in a very “that’s baseball” effort on Thursday but he is a limited player. Christian Vazquez can still drive the ball as a sneaky catcher play if he is in the lineup.
The Yankees projected lineup will be facing right-handed Tyler Mahle, who is a tough call in this one. Mahle has very sharp strikeout stuff, but he tends to allow too many opportunities and get himself into enough trouble to ding his MLB DFS point-scoring output. Last year, Mahle struck out 25% while pitching to a 4.03 xFIP and a 4.40 ERA, the year before he had a 27.7% strikeout mark and a 3.74 xFIP. To this point in 2023, Mahle has made two starts and thrown 11 innings, he has a 29.5% strikeout rate and a 2.45 xFIP, he has been good to open the season. At $10,100/$9,500 there is not a lot of comfort in rostering the righty against the Yankees, he has given up a 41.4% hard-hit rate this season, and when he is not striking hitters out he is typically giving up fly balls, which tend to travel into the stands in this park. Mahle can be played, but expectations should be realistic, there is a good chance of failure, which will hopefully keep his ownership down. The Yankees stack looks like it typically is constructed, though DJ LeMahieu remains a question mark. The infielder has missed the last few games dealing with lingering injuries, he could sit again on Saturday. The Yankees had rookie Anthony Volpe in the leadoff role yesterday, he homered for the first time in his career and may land in that spot again if LeMahieu does not play. Either would be an option up top, and Volpe is in play as a nine-hitting wraparound as well. Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and Giancarlo Stanton need no introduction. The trio packs immense power and has hit six home runs in the last two games as a unit. They have a combined 12 already this season. Rizzo is too cheap at $4,800/$3,500 in this matchup. Stanton is too cheap at $3,400 on FanDuel. Get these bats in your Yankees stacks, and use them as one-offs. Second baseman Gleyber Torres is another candidate for the leadoff spot in the absence of LeMahieu, Torres has had a great start to his year and is in play despite high prices. Franchy Cordero has been great to start the season, hitting four home runs already, but expectations should be tempered. He can be played if he is in the lineup, but this is a player with a fairly substantial track record of turning into a pumpkin shortly after flashing signs of brilliance, be wary. Oswaldo Cabrera is a useable piece while Kyle Higashioka is an interesting catcher play with power potential. Higashioka’s excellent contact quality has been mentioned in this space several times this season, he has a 20% barrel rate and a 50% hard-hit mark over his 17 plate appearances, with one home run on the board and he maintained excellent contact all year in 2022.
Play: Twins stacks, Yankees stacks, some Tyler Mahle
Update Notes:
San Francisco Giants (-162/5.10) @ Detroit Tigers (+135/4.13)
The Giants have an opportunity to feast today, with Michael Lorenzen making his first start of 2023 for the Tigers. The righty made 18 starts last year and pitched to a 4.20 xFIP while striking out 20.7%. Lorenzen is targetable for contact and for power upside, though he has some degree of talent in keeping the ball down. The Giants’ free-swinging lineup looks like a good play for offense in this contest, while Lorenzen is projecting in the lower third of the board for $6,100/$7,400. At the DraftKings SP2 price a few dice rolls are not a definite mistake, but there is not much meat on the bone. The Giants lineup includes several excellent lefties with power, starting with LaMonte Wade Jr. who has a home run and a stolen base while creating runs 59% better than average this year. Wade hits in front of Michael Conforto and David Villar, who have hit three home runs each so far this year. Conforto missed all of 2022, but he has been a strong hitter in past seasons and is an ideal bat for this lineup. Villar hit nine home runs in just 181 opportunities, posting a .224 ISO last year. Mike Yastrzemski is today’s Giants’ home run pick, he is pulling in a 4.93 in the model, not an aggressively good number but Yaz has the ability to take a pitcher like this into the stands with ease. He has two home runs and a .200 ISO this season in 52 plate appearances. Thairo Estrada is a good correlation and individual scoring play who is slashing .370/.420/.530 with a .261 ISO and a 180 WRC+ in his 50 plate appearances. Estrada has three home runs on the board, he has been a San Francisco standout so far. Lefty veteran Brandon Crawford and Wilmer Flores from the right side of the plate are a powerful and inexpensive mid-range tandem late in the lineup, while Blake Sabol and Heliot Ramos offer less upside and proven ability. The focus is from one through seven when stacking Giants bats in this one, they are a middle-class option on this slate.
The Tigers are rarely in play, they are very cheap every day and they have a few moderate talents with a lot of development left to be done. Detroit is facing Anthony DeSclafani who comes in riding a 26.2% strikeout rate over his first two starts and 12.1 innings of the season. The righty had a 22.5% rate in his 167.2 innings in 2021 before missing most of last year. While he has never been a great pitcher, there is a modicum of upside in the starter in this matchup, but he is priced for it, putting DeSclafani in a bit of a no man’s land. At $8,900/$9,900 it is difficult to see him reaching a true ceiling score on a slate of this size, but the pitching options available are a mixed bag. The pitcher is playable, but not great. On the Tigers side, only Nick Maton, Kerry Carpenter, and Akil Baddoo are currently above average for run creation. All three are playable, depending on where they hit in the lineup, but they have a combined four home runs, with three of those belonging to Maton, who is cheap in the leadoff role at $2,900/$2,300. Matt Vierling is in the projected lineup, but Riley Greene is the better name up top. Greene is a prized prospect who is finding his way at .231/.286/.365 with a 79 WRC+, he will come around. Carpenter has impressive power in the middle of the lineup, he currently is sitting on a ridiculous 31.6% barrel rate with a 47.4% hard-hit mark in his first 33 plate appearances. Spencer Torkelson may be charged with fraud by the DA’s office if he doesn’t start hitting, Javier Baez barely puts in the effort to be good or reliable for MLB DFS anymore, and the balance of the Tigers lineup is, well, the balance of the Tigers’ lineup, do you want to play that?
Play: Giants stacks, some DeSclafani but not if he’s overly popular
Update Notes:
Baltimore Orioles (-113/4.65) @ Chicago White Sox (+104/4.45)
Another mid-range pitching matchup sees the Orioles taking on Michael Kopech, who has just a 20.8% strikeout rate over his 10.2 innings this year and was at 21.3% in his 119.1 last season. Kopech has a 5.97 xFIP this year and had a 4.83 mark last year, he gives up too much power and too much premium contact and should allow the Orioles’ bats to get going early in this one. Kopech is not a great pitching option for $7,300/$8,200, the offense seems like the much better target in this matchup. Cedric Mullins II hits from both sides of the plate, he went 16/34 for home runs and stolen bases last year and had a massive 30/30 campaign in 2021. This year, Mullins already has two home runs and seven stolen bases. The Orioles are an aggressive running team, they pack power and run-creation abilities, and Mullins exemplifies them all. Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle are going to be beasts in the AL East for the next decade plus. They have combined for 10 home runs on the young season, with Rutschman creating runs 114% better than average as a catcher and Mountcastle mashing with a .379 ISO and a 140 WRC+. Following that pair with switch-hitting veteran power bat Anthony Santander, who has not really gotten in gear for 2023, but who hit 33 home runs just last year, is borderline unfair. The team continues with excellence in Gunnar Henderson, a prized prospect, and Austin Hays, a post-hype hitter who has had mid-range success in the Show over the past few seasons and is looking for more. Hays hit 16 home runs in 2022 and 22 in 2021. He has three on the board already this year and has created runs 73% better than average in his 54 plate appearances, Hays should not be the forgotten man too frequently when stacking Orioles bats. Adam Frazier, Ramon Urias, and Jorge Mateo round out the projected lineup, frequent readers know our affection levels for Mateo, but he missed last night’s game with what was likely just rest, assuming he plays he should be included in Orioles stacks and he makes a sneaky cheap one-off play.
The White Sox are a quality lineup, particularly with the return of Eloy Jimenez, but they are still missing shortstop Tim Anderson who is a major run-creation engine in this offense. Chicago is facing capable righty Kyle Gibson, who pitched to a 3.94 xFIP last year with a 20.1% strikeout rate and a 4.14 xFIP with a 20.6% strikeout mark over 182 innings the year before. Gibson is reliably around league average, he costs $9,400/$8,700 on this slate, putting him in play in the uncomfortable but possibly enough to get us there range. Gibson has allowed a 2.86% home run rate and has pitched to a 4.59 xFIP in his three starts and 18.1 innings so far this year. The White Sox lineup features Andrew Benintendi and Luis Robert Jr. a dynamite pair of mid-range power, hit tool, and speed outfielders hitting ahead of Jimenez. Benintendi has been slow out of the gate, but he is a proven hitter who will come around atop the lineup. Robert has five home runs and has created runs 60% better than average, while Jimenez has missed all but 26 plate appearances so far. The slugger’s talent is undeniable, he just needs to be on the field, Jimenez is cheap at $4,800/$3,300. Cleanup hitter Gavin Sheets is in the lineup on the left side of the plate, Sheets is an inexpensive power bat at $2,600/$2,300 with first base and outfield eligibility. Jake Burger and Oscar Colas can provide upside in the later part of the lineup, Colas is a solid prospect in the outfield, he costs $2,500/$2,700 and has a home run with two stolen bases already this season. The bottom of the lineup spirals off into the quality abyss however, with Lenyn Sosa, Seby Zavala, and Elvis Andrus bringing up the rear. The focus is on the top six hitters.
Play: Orioles stacks pretty frequently, White Sox bats 1-6, minor shares of Kyle Gibson
Update Notes:
Pittsburgh Pirates (+176/3.59) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-194/5.02)
The game in St. Louis has a bit of rain in the forecast, with around a 50% chance of precipitation at game time, this is one to keep an eye on but a postponement is seeming unlikely a few hours out from start time. The Pirates are in town to face lefty Steven Matz, who is posting a mid-range pitching projection that puts him in play on a weak pitching slate. Matz has struck out 21.6% of hitters with a 3.39 xFIP over 11 innings in his first two starts this year, but he has an 8.18 ERA on the surface, he was typically up and down last year in pitching to a 26.1% strikeout rate with a 3.16 xFIP but a 5.65 ERA over his 48 innings last season. The lefty can get through this version of the Pirates a few times while finding some strikeouts, for just $6,900 on DraftKings, he is definitely an SP2 option, and he is a playable piece who may lose popularity at $8,900 on FanDuel. The Pirates’ lineup has been frisky to start the year, but they are missing their second-best player, which will catch up to this team eventually. Currently, Ke’Bryan Hayes is sitting at a 16 WRC+, he is slashing .157/.204/.235 and may need a day off to reset the mechanism. Hayes is projected in the leadoff spot, which is problematic out of the gate. He hits ahead of the excellent Bryan Reynolds, who had five homers and a 160 WRC+ over 58 plate appearances. Andrew McCutchen and Carlos Santana are creating runs 50% and 15% better than average respectively to start the season. They were at two percent below and two percent above respectively over full samples in 2022. Each veteran bat has a bit of power potential, they can be played at the cheap value salary requirements today. Connor Joe has hit a home run and has a 160 WRC+ over his tiny 31 plate appearance sample in 2023, while Rodolfo Castro is an interesting late-lineup bat with a bit of power and eligibility at both middle infield spots. Castro has a home run on the board this year and he hit 11 in just 278 plate appearances, posting a .194 ISO last season. Castro has an 8.04, third on the Pirates, in our home run model today and he costs just $2,900/$2,200. The bottom of the lineup is mix-and-match territory, with Ji-Hwan Bae as an interesting name with flexible positioning.
The Cardinals are always in play. The team is near the top of our Power Index once again today, a space where they will live for most of the season. The primary challenge with stacking Cardinals is affording the best combinations of their excellent top-to-bottom lineup. The team can literally be played in any combination from one through nine. The matchup against Roansy Contreras is a plus one for St. Louis as well. The righty has allowed a 90.4 mph average exit velocity on a 41.2% hard-hit rate this season while striking out just 11.1% and walking 11.1% in his two starts and nine innings. The unfair sample stands next to a 2022 in which Contreras made 18 starts and threw 95 innings with a 21.1% strikeout rate, so we know he is a bit better than we have seen this year, but he also allowed a massive amount of power in those outings. Contreras had a 3.19% home run rate which was somewhat lucky to be that low on the back of an 11% barrel rate and 45.9% hard-hit mark allowed. This is a pitcher who can be targeted with bats, he is not an overly appealing option on the mound for MLB DFS given his lack of strikeout potential and a brutal matchup. The Cardinals projected lineup opens as expected, with Brendan Donovan in the leadoff spot. The lefty is a good correlation option, and he is hitting ahead of Lars Nootbaar who is expected to return to the lineup after a brief injury stint. Nootbaar is a darling of the analytics community, which is expecting big things from the outfielder this year. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado hit next, they were featured extensively in this space yesterday, today we will just say: play them! Nolan Gorman and Tyler O’Neill offer premium power on either side of the plate, the two young sluggers have six home runs combined on the season, and O’Neill has barely gotten his year started. Rookie Jordan Walker is in the projected lineup after a night off on Friday, he is another terrific option with his hit tool and multi-category ability, while Tommy Edman is a strong wraparound play in the infield. Catcher Andrew Knizner costs the minimum on DraftKings and should be in the lineup today, which could be a nice differentiation piece where the position is mandatory.
Play: Cardinals stacks aggressively, some Steven Matz
Update Notes:
Tampa Bay Rays (+104/4.70) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-112/4.90)
The Rays finally lost a game! The team fell to the Blue Jays last night, but they are in line for a great bounceback with plenty of power in a matchup against Yusei Kikuchi, who has a long track record of giving up far too much premium contact and too many home runs. Kikuchi is not an elite option against this Rays lineup, but he could find some strikeouts for a few dice roll shares at price, expectations on the play should be extremely small however. The Rays stack is the better option for MLB DFS purposes, the excellent team is profiling well for power and run creation, with excellent leadoff man Yandy Diaz checking in at just $4,900/$3,400. Diaz has four home runs and a 151 WRC+ so far this season, he had a 146 WRC+ last year and a 111 in 2021, he is a very good hitter. Wander Franco and Randy Arozarena are stars who come in at appropriate and playable prices. Both players have significant power and speed upside, they are creating runs 80% and 60% better than average to start the season. Isaac Paredes is projected to hit in the top half of the lineup as well. The slugging infielder is leading the team with a 10.47 in our home run model today. Paredes has hit three homers with a .209 ISO so far this season, and he is yet to get his contact profile fully engaged. Harold Ramirez is an option any time this team faces a left-handed pitcher, he is an elite righty bat in the split and the Rays deploy him correctly. Ramirez is slashing .323/.382/.710 with a .387 ISO and three home runs to start the year. Taylor Walls, Manuel Margot, Christian Bethancourt, Vidal Brujan, or whoever else lands at the bottom of the Rays lineup are all in play as mix-and-match pieces, the team is great at sequencing and using the full lineup to create runs.
The Blue Jays are one of the leading teams in today’s power index in a matchup against Tampa Bay’s Calvin Faucher, who will open the game prior to handing off to Josh Fleming. Tampa Bay pitching is not in play on this slate while Blue Jays bats should not be avoided. George Springer homered last night, giving him three on the year to go with a pair of stolen bases. The outfield star is creating runs two percent better than average and should improve as the year goes on. He hits ahead of the Blue Jays superstar pairing of Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who have six home runs and are creating runs 92% and 82% better than average respectively. Bichette is slashing .391/.418/.641 while Guerrero is at .393/.470/.518, this is one of baseball’s best duos. Daulton Varsho is today’s overall home run pick, the lefty slugger got on the board last night and is pulling in a 10.74 in our home run model today. Matt Chapman is back in the lineup, he sat out Thursday but played Friday night and seems good to go, Chapman has destroyed baseball in the start of the season, he is the most expensive player on FanDuel at $4,500 but costs just $4,900 on DraftKings, which is a discount. Alejandro Kirk is slashing .219/.333/.319 with a 79 WRC+ but he hit 14 home runs with a 129 WRC+ last year and is one of the better catcher bats available. Whit Merrifield and Santiago Espinal are somewhat playable late, Merrifield is the better overall option but ie more expensive and likely to be owned, Kevin Kiermaier has a solid triple-slash over his first 42 plate appearances, but the outfielder is primarily on this team for defense.
Play: Rays stacks, Blue Jays stacks
Update Notes:
Cleveland Guardians (-168/5.43) @ Washington Nationals (+154/4.19)
A matchup between Chad Kuhl and Zach Plesac is no one’s idea of a pitching duel. The limited righties are not good pitchers. Kuhl struck out 21.5% of hitters over 80.1 innings in 2021, that was the last time that either pitcher had a season-long mark above 18%. Neither starter is a threat for many strikeouts, both yield run creation and allow too many opportunities with meaty WHIPs year after year. Both pitchers are sitting above a 5.0% home run rate so far this season in two starts each. These are targetable pitchers for MLB DFS offenses. Between the two, Plesac has by far the better matchup, facing the hometown Nationals, while Kuhl is in trouble against the visiting Guardians. Cleveland’s lineup has been featured several times already this year, they have noteworthy multi-category qualities from top to bottom in their lineup. Steven Kwan is an excellent leadoff man and a great correlation piece for MLB DFS, do not lose focus by looking just at his general lack of power production. Kwan hits in front of Amed Rosario and Jose Ramirez, who have dynamic combinations of power and speed. Ramirez is a superstar and the best third baseman in baseball at the plate, he costs $5,900/$3,600, the FanDuel price is far too cheap. Josh Naylor is a first baseman on DraftKings but adds outfield eligibility and costs just $2,600 on the blue site. Naylor has two home runs on the board this year, but has scuffled at the plate otherwise, which could turn the field in other directions, making him an appealing tournament play in stacks. Andres Gimenez has a home run and a 120 WRC+ to start the season, the infielder is another power and speed option and he has a strong hit tool in the middle of the lineup. Gimenez was our home run pick with an average 7.29 in our model. Josh Bell outpaces that mark at 8.60, in the projected sixth spot in the lineup, Bell has one home run on the season but has also been slow out of the gate. The first baseman hit 17 home runs last year and 27 the season before, there is upside in this play at $3,600/$2,200, the FanDuel price is simply incorrect. Will Brennan, Mike Zunino, and Myles Straw are moderately playable, with Zunino’s power being the most interesting component the group has to offer.
The Nationals are less playable, even in the quality matchup. The team should be utilized to some degree, they are in a good situation for runs, but they are filled with bad players and seem more likely to deliver on their implied 4.19 run total than they are to post a monster score in this one. Washington bats that are in play include Alex Call at $3,100/$3,200, Dominic Smith, at $2,800/$2,500, and Joey Meneses for $4,400/$2,600. None of those players is above average for run creation this season, in order they have WRC+ marks of 87, 60, and 43. Victor Robles remains the only hitter above average for runs in this lineup, he hits ninth. Lane Thomas has pulled his airway to the waterline, and he is no longer drowning, but he is also not above water, sitting at exactly a 100 WRC+ mark with no home runs but a .315/.373/.352 triple-slash. The bottom of the lineup falls off until it reaches Robles, who has two steals and is slashing .326/.408/.372, and makes for a wraparound option, though it wraps around to four players who are below average at completing the deal.
Play: Guardians bats aggressively, some Nationals bats
Update Notes:
Milwaukee Brewers (+114/3.61) @ San Diego Padres (-124/3.97)
Seth Lugo has been good to start the season for the Padres, the longtime reliever has made two full-fledged starts, covering 13 innings and pitching to a 3.46 xFIP with a 1.38 ERA and a 24% strikeout rate. Lugo has been an effective high-strikeout reliever who could be relied upon to cover multiple innings with quality, but this is a bit of a surprise at this point in his career. With the Brewers in town, Lugo will be challenged for quality, but he was very good in pitching six innings of five-hit one-run ball with five strikeouts against the Braves, and he allowed just one run on a home run and four hits while striking out seven Rockies in his first outing. Lugo is a viable pitching option at $7,400/$9,200, he will probably be popular at the DraftKings price, but FanDuel gamers may forego him at the higher cost. Lugo is a very talented pitcher, he could post a premium fantasy score in this contest. The Brewers heavily left-handed lineup has power and some speed, but they swing and miss aggressively as well. Milwaukee opens things with Christian Yelich, who homered after a mention in this space and now has two long balls on the season. Yelich’s barrel rate is up to 5.4% and he has an always-excellent hard-hit mark at 51.4%, let the reclamation commence. If Jesse Winker plays, the lefty is an option for power and for run creation in the second spot in the lineup, Winker has been sick all week but could see action on Saturday, he comes cheap at $3,300/$2,800. Willy Adames and Rowdy Tellez are a solid power core in the heart of the batting order, they have eight combined home runs with Adames carrying three and a .220 ISO and Tellez sitting at five with a monstrous .381 ISO and a 123 WRC+. After Yelich, who will be above average in short order, the next six hitters in the projected lineup are all well above average for run creation. That includes the hitters mentioned above as well as Garrett Mitchell and Brian Anderson, who sit at a 130 and 152 WRC+ respectively and remain too cheap. Mitchell costs $3,200/$3,100 and Anderson is at $3,700/$3,100 with eligibility at third base and in the outfield. The bottom of the lineup trails off after the seven spots, but they can be mixed into stacks as needed.
The Padres will be facing righty Freddy Peralta, who is a $10,700/$9,800 option with a strong projection on this slate. Peralta has a 29.2% strikeout rate over two starts and 12 innings this season, last year he posted a 27.1% rate in 78 innings, before succumbing to injury. Peralta was excellent in 2021 with a 33.6% strikeout rate, but he probably truly lives in the 26-28% range that we have seen more recently. Regardless, that makes him one of the better pitching options on this slate, even in a rough matchup against the Padres, Peralta should be rostered and there is hope that he will be lower-owned than he should be. The Padres can be rostered against him as well, but they should not be stacked aggressively as Peralta is good at limiting power and premium contact in addition to finding strikeouts. The obvious names in the Padres lineup are always in play, those are Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts, who make a good contrarian stack but are very expensive in the bad matchup. Bookend hitters Trent Grisham and Jake Cronenworth can be added to that stack, Grisham is off to a better start with a 124 WRC+ while Cronenworth is at just an 84. Both hitters are on the plus side of their splits against a righty, while right-handed Ha-Seong Kim can provide moderate pop and some speed. Matt Carpenter slots in with one home run and a .160 ISO, he and fellow lefty Rougned Odor are dart throws for lefty power, but little else.
Play: Four Corners Game: Freddy Peralta, Seth Lugo, some Brewers stacks, some Padres stacks in that order of enthusiasm.
Update Notes:
New York Mets (-179/5.22) @ Oakland Athletics (+164/3.89)
The Mets were one of the featured teams in today’s Power Index in their matchup against Shintaro Fujinami, which has them leading the slate for home run indicators. Fujinami has made two starts in the Majors and made it through just 6.2 innings. The righty has gotten beat up in his two outings, first lasting just 2.1 innings while giving up eight runs on three walks and five hits to the Angels, then giving up five runs on five hits and four walks in a 4.1-inning start against the Rays. The Mets are as good as those two teams, so there will be no quarter for Fujinami in start number three. He is yet to allow a home run, but the power seems likely to arrive given the 43.5% hard-hit rate on a 22.2-degree average launch angle with a 90.8 mph average exit velocity that Fujinami has allowed to this point. The Mets lineup is excellent for stacking against a pitcher of this nature, even if they do not find the home run swing they have excellent on-base and sequencing skills, and speed, and they create runs extremely well. The full stack can connect even when they miss the home run board. Brandon Nimmo is pulling in a 7.85 in our home run model, he is yet to go deep this year and has just a .073 ISO but he hit 16 home runs last year and has mid-range pop, he is a fantastic correlation piece regardless of power. Starling Marte had a great game in front of superstar Francisco Lindor, who hit a grand slam and drove in seven runs last night. The duo is excellent for both power and speed, they can be combined or played separately. Marte has a home run and five steals, while Lindor has three homers and a stolen base and is creating runs 45% better than average. Slugger Pete Alsono has six home runs and a massive .365 ISO on the season, he costs $5,200/$3,800 which seems a bit cheap for the hulking first baseman in this matchup, Alonso is a strong buy for Mets stacks or as a one-off. Jeff McNeil and Mark Canha are limited home run threats, Canha has one on the board this year and he hit 30 over the past two seasons in more than 1,100 plate appearances, but he is more reliable for correlated MLB DFS scoring. The lighter-hitting McNeil is primarily a correlation play. Daniel Vogelbach has power on the left side and Eduardo Escobar hits from both sides of the plate, but neither is out to a great start this season. Between the two, Escobar is the more reliable, but only by a thin margin against righties. Catcher Francisco Alvarez is yet to homer in the Show over his eight plate appearances, he is a premium prospect but he is probably here early because of injuries, Alvarez may need more development time before he is truly ready to contribute.
Righty Carlos Carrasco comes in at a discounted $8,600/$7,500 asking price. The starter has just an 11.9% strikeout rate and an unsightly 6.35 xFIP under his ugly 11.42 ERA. He has allowed a 7.14% home run rate in the tiny 8.2 inning sample over two starts this year. We know for certain that Carrasco is a much better pitcher than those numbers. In a fair sample of 152 innings over 29 starts last year, the righty posted a 23.6% strikeout rate with a sharp 3.45 xFIP and a 3.97 ERA while limiting home runs to just 2.64%. The starter induced a 13% swinging-strike rate, which is a very strong mark, he has all the signs of a veteran pitcher who had two bumpy early outings but will find his form. Carrasco has a great opportunity to do that against the Athletics today, he is our top pitcher on the afternoon and he comes at a great price in this matchup. Carrasco should be very popular, but he seems worth the spend. The Athletics, meanwhile, are difficult to roster even in the best circumstances. The team is exceedingly cheap and a few bats have been fristy to start the year, most notably Brent Rooker, who has four home runs and a 218 WRC+ in his 29 plate appearances. Tony Kemp and Ryan Noda are a playable pair of lefty bats projected to hit ahead of Rooker at the top of the lineup. Noda has created runs 16% better than average this season and Kemp has a bit of a track record for production, primarily in 2021. Ramon Laureano is a capable MLB DFS producer who has been OK to start the year with two home runs, two stolen bases, and a 122 WRC+. Jace Peterson and Jesus Aguilar can always provide sneaky power, but they join the balance of the Athletics lineup as mostly mix-and-match plays. Shea Langeliers costs $3,200/$2,300 at the catcher spot, he has a dash of power that has been on display early with three home runs and a .227 ISO.
Play: Mets stacks aggressively, Carlos Carrasco, limited Oakland anything
Update Notes:
Atlanta Braves (-133/4.85) @ Kansas City Royals (+123/4.24)
To no one’s surprise, the Braves land near the top of our Power Index again today in their matchup with lefty Kris Bubic. Atlanta is so frequently near the top of that board that we are thinking of adding a Turner-based marketing concept or talking to Donald Glover about a sponsorship. The Braves have Bubic entirely off the table when it comes to pitching. In fact, the lousy lefty is knocked off the table, scattered across the floor, and slid under the oven in this one. Bubic had a 4.52 xFIP and a 44.9% hard-hit rate last year while striking out just 18.7% of hitters, he struck out 20.5% while pitching to a 4.57 xFIP the year before. So far this season he has a 30.2% strikeout rate and a 2.75 xFIP, those numbers are set to change today. Ronald Acuna Jr. costs $6,500/$4,200, he should be more expensive than Bubic in their matchup, but DraftKings has the pitcher at too high a salary today. Acuna is creating runs 81% better than average to lead his team. Matt Olson is right behind him at a 176 WRC+ and five home runs, posting a .357 ISO to earn his hefty MLB DFS salaries. Right-handed sluggers Austin Riley and Sean Murphy as well as switch-hitting Ozzie Albies and righty Marcell Ozuna have the power to make it a very long very short day for Bubic, the southpaw will have a deadly right-handed power gauntlet to navigate, the odds are strongly against him. Every hitter in that group has at least two home runs already this season. Rookie Vaughn Grissom is yet another excellent young hitter that has now joined this team. Grissom slots in for just $3,100 on DraftKings but remains frustratingly absent on FanDuel. The rookie should be played ahead of Kevin Pillar or Eli White, who round out the projected lineup.
Kansas City seems like the perfect team to ruin Bryce Elder’s unexpected start to the season. Elder has a 28.3% strikeout rate with a good 3.55 xFIP, an excellent 0.97 WHIP, a good 11% swinging-strike rate, and a perfectly clean 0.00 ERA. If he comes out the other side of this one with a clean mark for runs, we will begin to believe. Elder pitched to a 20.7% strikeout rate with a 10.1% walk rate and a 4.16 xFIP over 54 Major League innings last year, he is a good mid-range pitching prospect, but the soft-tosser is not elite. The Royals’ hard-hitting lineup is in play, but Elder is also an option, particularly for just $7,700 on DraftKings. He costs an untenable $9,700 on the FanDuel slate, where he is a more conservative play. The Royals stack begins with MJ Melendez, who has a .152 ISO and just one home run to open the season but who hit 18 in 534 plate appearances last year. Melendez has a quality bat in front of star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino, who is not priced in a spot that aligns with his excellent bat. Pasquantino is slasihg .273/.396/.523 with a .250 ISO and a 149 WRC+ in 54 plate appearances and was equally good in 298 opportunities last year, but costs just $3,400/$2,700 from site to site, this is a great value play. Sal Perez will eventually return to being a destroyer of the quantum-realm universes that we all know exists on the surfaces of every baseball he obliterates into the stands. Perez hit 48 home runs in 2021 and 23 last year, but he has none for 2023, this is going to change very soon. Kyle Isbel, Edward Olivares, and Michael Massey are a strong lefty-righty-lefty stretch in the back end of the lineup, each player can produce but none of them have been great to open the season, making them very inexpensive on this slate. Franmil Reyes costs $2,700/$2,300 and has a two-dinger upside on any given slate. The Royals are a mid-range value-based stack that could go off against a pitcher who should allow some contact.
Play: Braves bats aggressively, some Bryce Elder, some Royals stacks
Update Notes:
Los Angeles Angels (-110/4.87) @ Boston Red Sox (+102/4.72)
The Angels were the other featured team in the Power Index column. Nick Pivetta is not a bad pitcher, but he is targetable for power. The righty allowed a 3.49% home run rate with a 45.4% hard-hit mark and a nine percent barrel rate over his 179.2 innings last year and a 3.63% home run rate with a 40.1% hard-hit mark the year before. To this point in 2023, Pivetta has a 4.76% home run rate and has yielded a ridiculous 68% hard-hit rate in the tiny 10-inning sample. While it is small-sample happenstance at this point, Pivetta has allowed a 28% barrel rate and 93.9 mph of average exit velocity, he was teed up for a pair of home runs in his first start against the Pirates, though he struck out six. In his second start he struck out six Rays hitters and allowed no runs on three hits and two walks, showing the quality side of his game, but he may have been somewhat lucky in that outing. Pivetta has the talent to find his strikeouts and pitch cleanly against these Angels, but the odds look to be on the side of Los Angeles’ premium power. Taylor Ward has hit two home runs with a 124 WRC+ but just a .132 ISO to start the year, he is a good individual scorer and a great correlation play in Angels stacks. Mike Trout is slashing .261/.433/.522 with a .261 ISO and three home runs while blasting the ball with a 60.6% hard-hit rate and a 12.1% barrel so far this year. Shohei Ohtani is second on the team with a 12.68 in our home run model, Trout leads the way at 14.33. Ohtani has hit three home runs and sports a .250 ISO over his 52 plate appearances this year. The otherworldly two-way star has a 17.9% barrel rate and a 57.1% hard-hit mark on the season to date. Veteran righties follow Ohtani in the projected lineup, with Anthony Rendon still seeking his first home run of the season. Rendon is slashing .286/.433/.286 with a 116 WRC+ over his 30 plate appearances after serving a suspension, he seems like a fair bet to find his game hitting in the middle of a quality lineup, assuming he can stay on the field. Hunter Renfroe has three home runs and a 54.8% hard-hit rate, he costs just $4,800/$3,400. Jake Lamb has been slow out of the gate this season, Brandon Drury seems like a stronger play from late in the lineup, but either hitter could go deep on Pivetta, and Lamb has the platoon split in his favor. Drury hit 28 home runs last season and has one this year in 43 plate appearances with a 46.4% hard-hit rate. Luis Rengifo is a sneaky underrated power option in the infield for a low investment. Rengifo does not have a great profile, but he homered 17 times last season and can drive the ball from time to time for MLB DFS gamers.
With lefty Tyler Anderson on the mound, the Red Sox are showing somewhat limited upside for power, Anderson is very good at keeping the ball in the park by inducing soft and medium contact, despite pitching to a flyball trajectory. In 178.2 innings in 2022, Anderson had a 1.98% home run rate while pitching to a 4.11 xFIP. He limited opposing power by inducing just an 85 mph average exit velocity and a fantastic 28.5% hard-hit rate and a 4.9% barrel rate. Anderson was very good the year before as well, keeping hard hits down to just 33% with an 87mph average exit velocity allowed, but a bit of happenstance led to a 3.84% home run rate that season. The southpaw is not a major strikeout option, he has been reliably between 19 and 20% and seems on track for that range again with a 17% mark over his first two starts. The starter’s primary quality is pitching through a game and suppressing power, but teams can sequence against him to create runs. This has the Red Sox as a lower-middle-class team on this slate. Boston’s lineup begins with left-handed quality in Alex Verdugo who has created runs 24% better than average. He is followed by veteran Justin Turner who has three home runs and a 168 WRC+ to start his Red Sox career. Turner is always an option, he has a long track record of excellence at just $4,000/$2,800 and was today’s Red Sox home run pick with a 4.73 in the model. Rafael Devers leads the Red Sox with a 7.99 home run mark, the lefty slugger is slashing .283/.333/.679 with a gargantuan .396 ISO and six home runs already, he is an excellent baseball player. Rob Refsnyder is hilariously miscast as the three-hitter in the confirmed lineup, with Devers in the cleanup role. Masataka Yoshida has missed the last two games and will sit out again Saturday. Enrique Hernandez is a capable utility man and Triston Casas has bigtime power but is yet to find his way at this level, the bottom of the lineup is oddly constructed.
Play: Angels stacks aggressively, some Red Sox, light Pivetta in large fields
Update Notes:
Philadelphia Phillies (+101/4.74) @ Cincinnati Reds (-108/4.85)
The Phillies are facing Graham Ashcraft in Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly ballpark this afternoon, which has them projected for quality. Ashcraft has had a good start to his year, pitching to a 3.69 xFIP and a 2.08 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate, but he was at just a 15.3% strikeout mark over 105 innings and 19 starts as a rookie last year. He did limit power fairly well, giving up just a 2.37% home run rate on a 36.3% hard-hit mark, so there is some believability to the production, but it is somewhat thin against an offense like the Phillies. Ashcraft can be played at $7,200 on DraftKings, he fits in fine at that price and will likely see some popularity. The $10,000 price on FanDuel seems unfairly high for this starter in this park against this lineup, tread lightly on the blue site. Phillies bats are in play on both MLB DFS sites. Bryson Stott is projected to leadoff, he is creating runs 31% better than average and is a strong correlation play in front of the team’s three-man core of stars. Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Castellanos make up that group and provide excellent options across the board. Turner has a great mix of power and speed in addition to a great hit tool and on-base acumen, while Schwarber destroys baseballs with regularity and Castellanos mixes the two skillsets. The trio is affordable on both sites, they are an interesting option if Ashcraft sees some popularity, but Schwarber seems like an obvious home run selection who should gain clicks from gamers as lineups are built. Lefty Brandon Marsh and JT Realmuto are excellent options in the middle of the projected lineup, Realmuto is one of the best catchers in the game when it comes to hitting, he can be played like a regular on the FanDuel slate regardless of positional requirements. Alec Bohm is more interesting than Jake Cave or Kody Clemens at the bottom of the projected lineup.
The Reds draw Matt Strahm, a fun converted reliever who has made two starts and thrown 10 innings of quality baseball so far. Strahm has yet to allow an earned run, he has a 27% strikeout rate and a 3.95 xFIP with a 0.70 WHIP in his 10 innings, and he could pitch another quality game against these Reds. The ballpark won’t work in his favor and the Reds have been better than a pushover the year, but Strahm is cheap at $7,000 on both sites and has some upside in the matchup. He can be played across the industry, as can some limited shares of Reds bats. The focus in Cincinnati’s lineup is near the top of what should be a lineup comprised entirely of right-handed bats. Jonathan India and Spencer Steer are flashing decent power marks atop the lineup, they are creating runs 22% and 54% better than average to start the year. Stuart Fairchild has a legitimate power bat that is not recognized in pricing, he costs $2,400/$2,100 and has a very good possibility of homering or creating runs by driving the ball today. Fairchild is a good option for value in the middle of this lineup, he is a one-off or stacking play. Tyler Stephenson is another quality backstop on this slate, he is off to a good start at the plate but has a 91 WRC+ and is yet to homer. Wil Myers should produce in this park, this seems like a good place for him to start, so far he has been mostly inept this season and has just a 51 WRC+. Post-post-hype Nick Senzel checks in for just $2,000/$2,300 as the last capable man in the Reds’ projected lineup, with apologies to Kevin Newman, Curt Casali, and Jose Barrero.
Play: Phillies stacks, Matt Strahm, light Reds bats, some Graham Ashcraft on DraftKings
Update Notes:
Arizona Diamondbacks (+119/4.05) @ Miami Marlins (-129/4.55)
One game to go… the Diamondbacks and Marlins round out today’s slate with an interesting game between two frisky MLB DFS lineups. Arizona will be facing lefty Braxton Garrett, who brings a decent repertoire and a fair track record to the mound. Garrett struck out 24.1% of hitters in his 88 innings and 17 starts last season, pitching to a 3.51 xFIP and a 3.58 ERA. The lefty has made one start this year, throwing 4.2 innings and he had a three-inning outing out of the bullpen. He has a 21.1% strikeout rate for the year and is moderately playable at his $7,100/$7,700 pricing. The Diamondbacks have quality right-handed bats to throw at the starter, however, which makes it a both-sides game. Ketel Marte has created runs 35% below average this year, but he had a 102 WRC+ last season and a great 139 mark the year before. Marte has one home run and one stolen base but has otherwise scuffled, making him cheap at $4,200/$2,500. Josh Rojas and Lourdes Gurriel are playable, with Gurriel the preferred choice on the right side of the plate. The outfielder has hit one home run and is creating runs 28% below average, but he has a history of quality and should be fine, Rojas is at a 153 WRC+ with an excellent triple-slash in his 43 plate appearances this year. Christian Walker leads the team with a 7.12 in our home run model, he has two on the season and hit 36 last year, he seems like a fair bet to take Garrett into the stands. Evan Longoria brings veteran quality to this lineup, he has a 5.55 in the home run model and his right-handed power could come through. Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas are two interesting young bats who may or may not play against a lefty, Carroll has three home runs and six stolen bases already this season, he could be in line for a big fantasy production year. The balance of the lineup are mix-and-match pieces.
The Marlins are another team that flashes MLB DFS quality from time to time and one that features a few compelling parts in the lineup. The team is facing rookie hurler Ryne Nelson, who has been overmatched in his two outings to start 2023, but is a highly regarded prospect. Nelson posted a 23.2% strikeout rate and a 4.69 xFIP with a 0.82 WHIP in three starts last year but has struggled with a 5.89 xIFP and just a 12.5% strikeout rate in two starts this year. Nelson is difficult to trust at $8,500/$7,600 until we see more, but it is not a total mistake to play him against a flawed Marlins lineup in small doses in large tournaments. The Fish seem like the better play here, however, their lineup has enough quality to be in play and to limit the upside for Nelson unless he finds his way to a big strikeout total. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is cheap at $4,900/$3,000, he has two home runs and three stolen bases but just an 88 WRC+ so far. Garrett Cooper has hit three home runs and is creating runs 76% better than average from the right side of the plate, he is joined by Luis Arraez, who has perhaps the best hit tool in baseball. Arraez won the American League batting title last year and is on his way to the National League crown this season. He is slashing .500/.558/.696 with a .196 ISO and a 239 WRC+ to open the year, he is a phenomenal correlation piece who has been very productive. Jorge Soler has as much power as anyone in the game. He is sitting on four home runs and a .354 ISO with a 25% barrel rate and a 52.8% hard-hit mark, but one has to take the bad with the good when playing Soler, he is otherwise slashing .208/.283/.563. Bryan De La Cruz and Avisail Garcia are playable capable bats from later in the projected lineup, Jean Segura has veteran quality and a still-productive bat when he is right, and Jon Berti stole 41 bases in just 404 plate appearances last season. The Marlins are in play and could surprise in the late game.
Play: Marlins stacks, some Diamondbacks stacks, some Braxton Garrett
Update Notes:
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