Saturday afternoon’s Main Slates get started at 1:05 ET on both sites, with another massive 12-game setup. There are plenty of spots for power, spreading out to cover them all is more challenging than locating them on this slate. After putting a big score up in the late game last night, the leap to the top of the power index against the Athletics’ weak right-handed starter, while typical members of the top-of-board club including the Angels, Blue Jays, and Braves are all looking solid. The game in Yankee Stadium profiles well for power once again, though today’s temperatures are expected to be more in the mid-60s with rain in the forecast, so the environment may not be quite as homer-happy as the past two days.
Main Slate Power Index – 4/15/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column is the average of our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their biggest bats.
The Mets look to be in a great spot, the Athletics are starting right-hander Shintaro Fujinami, who has made two starts in the Majors and made it through just 6.2 innings. The righty has gotten beat up in his two outings, first lasting just 2.1 innings while giving up eight runs on three walks and five hits to the Angels, then giving up five runs on five hits and four walks in a 4.1-inning start against the Rays. The Mets are as good as those two teams, so there will be no quarter for Fujinami in start number three. He is yet to allow a home run, but the power seems likely to arrive given the 43.5% hard-hit rate on a 22.2-degree average launch angle with a 90.8 mph average exit velocity that Fujinami has allowed to this point. The Mets lineup is excellent for stacking against a pitcher of this nature, even if they do not find the home run swing they have excellent on-base and sequencing skills, and speed, and they create runs extremely well. The full stack can connect even when they miss the home run board. Brandon Nimmo is pulling in a 7.85 in our home run model, he is yet to go deep this year and has just a .073 ISO but he hit 16 home runs last year and has mid-range pop, he is a fantastic correlation piece regardless of power. Starling Marte had a great game in front of superstar Francisco Lindor, who hit a grand slam and drove in seven runs last night. The duo is excellent for both power and speed, they can be combined or played separately. Marte has a home run and five steals, while Lindor has three homers and a stolen base and is creating runs 45% better than average. Slugger Pete Alsono has six home runs and a massive .365 ISO on the season, he costs $5,200/$3,800 which seems a bit cheap for the hulking first baseman in this matchup, Alonso is a strong buy for Mets stacks or as a one-off. Jeff McNeil and Mark Canha are limited home run threats, Canha has one on the board this year and he hit 30 over the past two seasons in more than 1,100 plate appearances, but he is more reliable for correlated MLB DFS scoring. The lighter-hitting McNeil is primarily a correlation play. Daniel Vogelbach has power on the left side and Eduardo Escobar hits from both sides of the plate, but neither is out to a great start this season. Between the two, Escobar is the more reliable, but only by a thin margin against righties. Catcher Francisco Alvarez is yet to homer in the Show over his eight plate appearances, he is a premium prospect but he is probably here early because of injuries, Alvarez may need more development time before he is truly ready to contribute.
Nick Pivetta is not a bad pitcher, but he is targetable for power. The righty allowed a 3.49% home run rate with a 45.4% hard-hit mark and a nine percent barrel rate over his 179.2 innings last year and a 3.63% home run rate with a 40.1% hard-hit mark the year before. To this point in 2023, Pivetta has a 4.76% home run rate and has yielded a ridiculous 68% hard-hit rate in the tiny 10-inning sample. While it is small-sample happenstance at this point, Pivetta has allowed a 28% barrel rate and 93.9 mph of average exit velocity, he was teed up for a pair of home runs in his first start against the Pirates, though he struck out six. In his second start he struck out six Rays hitters and allowed no runs on three hits and two walks, showing the quality side of his game, but he may have been somewhat lucky in that outing. Pivetta has the talent to find his strikeouts and pitch cleanly against these Angels, but the odds look to be on the side of Los Angeles’ premium power. Taylor Ward has hit two home runs with a 124 WRC+ but just a .132 ISO to start the year, he is a good individual scorer and a great correlation play in Angels stacks. Mike Trout is slashing .261/.433/.522 with a .261 ISO and three home runs while blasting the ball with a 60.6% hard-hit rate and a 12.1% barrel so far this year. Shohei Ohtani is second on the team with a 12.68 in our home run model, Trout leads the way at 14.33. Ohtani has hit three home runs and sports a .250 ISO over his 52 plate appearances this year. The otherworldly two-way star has a 17.9% barrel rate and a 57.1% hard-hit mark on the season to date. Veteran righties follow Ohtani in the projected lineup, with Anthony Rendon still seeking his first home run of the season. Rendon is slashing .286/.433/.286 with a 116 WRC+ over his 30 plate appearances after serving a suspension, he seems like a fair bet to find his game hitting in the middle of a quality lineup, assuming he can stay on the field. Hunter Renfroe has three home runs and a 54.8% hard-hit rate, he costs just $4,800/$3,400. Jake Lamb has been slow out of the gate this season, Brandon Drury seems like a stronger play from late in the lineup, but either hitter could go deep on Pivetta, and Lamb has the platoon split in his favor. Drury hit 28 home runs last season and has one this year in 43 plate appearances with a 46.4% hard-hit rate. Luis Rengifo is a sneaky underrated power option in the infield for a low investment. Rengifo does not have a great profile, but he homered 17 times last season and can drive the ball from time to time for MLB DFS gamers.
