A short slate of action gets rolling at 6:40 ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel, with five games on board for the night. The Cardinals, Blue Jays, and Padres look like the top stacking options, the teams are drawing the highest implied totals on the board in Vegas and they are in favorable matchups across the board. Combining those expensive bats with quality pitching options will be the challenge on today’s slate. The pitching board has several talented options but lacks a premium proven ace arm on which gamers can rely, instead falling back on options like Nick Lodolo, an early standout who has a tall order in facing the Phillies, or Jordan Montgomery in a healthy matchup against the Pirates. A few other mid-range names offer upside on the mound, getting to a blend of pitching options with the best possible hitting combinations that their salaries will then allow seems like a strong approach to this slate.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, if a game has not been filled in simply check back in a few minutes. Lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to any news for changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Overview – 4/13/23
Philadelphia Phillies (+116/4.32) @ Cincinnati Reds (-126/4.79)
The Phillies are in Cincinnati’s band-box stadium to face southpaw Nick Lodolo, who has been outrageously good in striking out 41.2% of the hitters he has faced in his tiny 12-inning two-start sample so far this year. Lodolo is featured on FanGraphs’ home page in a piece that studies the absurd horizontal movement on his pitches, something he achieves via a left-adjacent mound positioning and a sidearm delivery that has the ball breaking three feet or more as it reaches home plate. The horizontal plane has been giving hitters fits in Lodolo’s early returns this year, and he was already very good as a rookie last season. In 19 starts and 103.1 innings, Lodolo posted a 29.7% strikeout rate with a 3.49 xFIP and a 3.66 ERA. He allowed just a 2.95% home run rate on 38.5% hard hits and a 9.1% barrel rate. The contact profile in particular seems likely to improve with the pitcher’s developing stuff and confidence, Lodolo has allowed just a 30.8% hard-hit rate to this point in the very early part of 2023. The lefty will be facing a still-tough but certainly diminished Phillies lineup and his home park is not friendly to pitching, but he has major upside at $9,400 on DraftKings. Lodolo seems correctly priced even at $10,800 on FanDuel, he has been that good this season. The hope will be that the Phillies’ reputation, the ballpark, and the price tag may keep some blue-site gamers at bay in playing the young hurler. Phillies bats are somewhat in play, both as a contrarian hedge option against Lodolo’s popularity and for their home run and sequencing upside in a hitting-friendly environment. Trea Turner checks in with a $6,300 price tag on DraftKings but a much more friendly $3,500 price across town. The shortstop hit 21 home runs and stole 27 bases last year while adding 101 runs and 100 RBI and creating runs 28% better than average overall. Turner is terrific for counting stats and MLB DFS scoring, he is just difficult to pay for on the DraftKings slate, which could add to his contrarian appeal in this matchup. Over his first 55 plate appearances, the star shortstop is slashing .321/.345/.434 but he left his home runs in the World Baseball Classic so far. Kyle Schwarber has three home runs already this season, he hit 46 last year and 32 the season before, he is always in play for a long ball and is priced down to just $5,500/$3,200. J.T. Realmuto remains baseball’s best-hitting catcher even though he is off to just a .200/.200/.375 start and creating runs 50% below average over his first 41 opportunities this year, let the public make the mistake of bailing out on the premium backstop in their Phillies stacks. Nick Castellanos is slashing .295/.392/.477 with a 133 WRC+ over his first 51 plate appearances this season in what would be a much-needed turnaround from last year’s cratered production. Castellanos sank to .263/.305/.389 with just 13 home runs and a 94 WRC+ his first year in Philadelphia, but he was a .309/.362/.576 hitter with 34 homers in 2021 in his last season with the Reds. The outfielder is in play and could be too cheap at $4,300/$3,200. Alec Bohm has three home runs in a great start to his season, Bohm is a first-round pick who has a highly regarded bat, he slashed .280/.315/.398 with 13 home runs last year and seems to be arriving in full form in 2023. Bohm costs $4,100 with first and third base eligibility on the DraftKings slate, he is a $3,400 third baseman on the blue site. Josh Harrison, Edmundo Sosa, and Christian Pache are mix-and-match pieces in the projected lineup, while Bryson Stott is an interesting middle infield option at $3,400 on DraftKings and $2,900 on FanDuel. Stott hit 10 home runs and stole 12 bases in 466 plate appearances last year, and he is slashing .420/.431/.500 with a 151 WRC+ and three stolen bases over 51 plate appearances this season. The productive second baseman is likely to be unpopular, he can be a strong differentiator for those stacking the underdog Phillies.
Southpaw Bailey Falter is not likely to match the challenge that the Reds’ lefty is offering to his team. Falter is a different type of pitcher than Lodolo, he had just a 21.2% strikeout rate over 84 innings and 16 starts in 2022 and he has made two semi-effective starts in 2023. The lefty threw 5.1 innings of two-run seven-hit ball against the Rangers in his first outing, striking out three but walking none. He covered five innings in his second start against these same Reds last week, striking out two but allowing just one run on four hits. Falter gave up a home run in both starts and seems targetable for power in this spot as well. With a general lack of strikeout upside and pitching in a hitter-friendly environment, Falter does not seem to have much footing on the pitching table tonight, he is better left to others even at $7,000 on the DraftKings slate and $8,000 on FanDuel. The Reds are not one of baseball’s better offenses, but they pick up some quality in their home park and a few hitters are interesting in this matchup. At a bare minimum, the Cincinnati lineup is very cheap from top to bottom across the industry, they should be a strong source of value stacks and potential one-offs tonight, but their popularity could soar on the back of the matchup and discounts. Cincinnati’s lineup opens with Jonathan India, who hit 10 home runs last year but had 21 the season before, adding 12 stolen bases and creating runs 22% better than average. India is slashing .310/.420/.452 and creating runs 33% better than average to start the year. He is joined atop the projected lineup by right-handed bats Spencer Steer and Wil Myers, breaking up a sturdy left-handed combination of T.J. Friedl and Jake Fraley in favor of the platoon-split matchup. Steer is slashing .306/.390/.583 with two home runs and a 149 WRC+ so far, while Myers has scuffled to just a .175/.283/.200 triple-slash and created runs 66% worse than average. Myers has been mentioned several times in this space as a potential sleeper in Reds home games, finally playing in that park it is time for the light to go on for the veteran hitter. Myers hit 17 home runs in 500 plate appearances in 2021, but fell to just seven in 286 tries last year, he has a cheap upside at $2,700/$2,400. Tyler Stephenson is a strong catcher option on the right side of the plate, he should be in the cleanup role where he can excel at creating runs for MLB DFS gamers. Kevin Newman, Stuart Fairchild, Jose Barrero, and Curt Casali represent the weaker portion of the projected lineup, with Fairchild having the best pop on the right side of the plate. The lineup still does include left-handed TJ Friedl, who has actually been quite good in same-handed plate appearances in his young career. In 40 matchups against fellow lefties, Friedl has just one of his 11 home runs, but he is slashing .343/.410/.600 with a .257 ISO and a 168 WRC+ in the extremely small sample. Friedl looks like the last highly playable piece in a Cincinnati stack, the focus should be on the top half of the Reds lineup when attacking the Bailey Falter position.
Play: Nick Lodolo, contrarian Phillies in small doses, Reds top-6
Update Notes: Bryson Stott is in the leadoff role for the Phillies, hitting in front of Turner-Schwarber-Castellanos-Realmuto, making him an interesting $3,400/$2,900 play. The balance of the lineup is as expected. The Reds have Nick Senzel in the six-spot in the lineup. Senzel costs the minimum on DraftKings where he has eligibility at third base and in the outfield. The right-handed hitter was once upon a time one of the very best prospects in baseball but injuries have severely hampered his production, he is a career .240/.303/.360 hitter with a .119 ISO and a 74 WRC+, but for the minimum the right-handed hitter is in play in this matchup for MLB DFS purposes in his first game of 2023.
Minnesota Twins (+130/3.94) @ New York Yankees (-141/4.65)
The Twins and Yankees are in the Bronx on a very warm 86-degree mid-April day that should have the stadium playing more like a June or July game. This could lead to major scoring potential in a matchup of two power-hitting teams. The showdown is projecting home run potential on both sides of the game, with the Yankees in the third spot in our Power Index and the Twins landing fourth. Minnesota will be facing Yankees’ rookie Jhony Brito, who will be making his third start of 2023. Brito is a somewhat unheralded young pitcher who seized a fill-in role with the big club on the back of an effective Spring and several injuries to key rotation pieces. He impressed in his first outing, throwing five clean innings while allowing just two hits and striking out six of the free-swinging Giants, the strikeout total in particular stood out as contrary to expectation. The righty is not a premium strikeout option, he sat down just two Orioles hitters in his second start, covering five innings and facing 20 hitters. Brito allowed three hits and was charged with a lone earned run in that outing, but he looked somewhat exposed for the limited repertoire he has available on the mound. Brito throws a good mid-90s fastball and a changeup that drops off the table but does not have much else on which he can fall back. A free-swinging club like the Twins may give him a strikeout upside but they could also represent danger for the young hurler who comes in at $7,700 on DraftKings and $7,100 on FanDuel. Brito is not unplayable, but he is difficult to trust in anything beyond a few shares in the largest of tournaments. The projected lineup for the Twins, meanwhile, is carrying a fair amount of power despite missing oft-injured star Byron Buxton, who suffered yet another mishap in last night’s game. The projected lineup leads off with Donovan Solano, who slashed .284/.339/.385 last year but is more of a correlation piece, and shortstop Carlos Correa, who is likely to return to the lineup. Correa has the team’s highest home run mark in our model at 10.44, he looks like a solid play at $5,000 on DraftKings and he is definitely an option for $2,700 on the blue site. Correa is slashing just .182/.250/.242 with a .061 ISO but we know there is far more talent than that on the way. Nick Gordon picks up in the three spot, he is slashing merely .118/.143/.147 in an anemic start to the season. Gordon has a -27 WRC+ and has shown no pop at the plate, but he slashed .272/.316/.427 with a 111 WRC+ and nine home runs last year. Jose Miranda and Trevor Larnach hit from opposite sides of the plate, Miranda is drawing the second-highest mark for power in our model tonight at 8.88, he hit 15 home runs in 483 plate appearances last year. Larnach, the lefty, hit five home runs in 180 opportunities, posting a .175 ISO last year, he has a home run and a 127 WRC+ so far in 2023. The projected lineup continues with Matt Wallner, Christian Vazquez, Edouard Julien, and Michael A. Taylor, who are mostly mix-and-match pieces.
Young righty Joe Ryan takes the mound in a tough spot for Minnesota. The Yankees’ offense has been getting production up and down to start the season, the team has won each of its first four series to start the year and will be looking to get out hot in the four-game weekend set against the Twins. Ryan is an effective starter who costs just $8,800 on DraftKings and $9,900 on FanDuel, he is in play for shares on both sites despite the good power marks the Yankees lineup is flashing. Ryan threw 147 innings in 27 starts last year, pitching to a 4.35 xFIP and a 3.55 ERA while allowing a 3.31% home run rate on just 35.4% hard hits. He is notably a fly ball pitcher, Ryan allowed an average launch angle of 24.2 degrees last year and 24.6 the season before, with an 8.6% barrel rate in 2022 representing a nice improvement from the 10.8% mark he allowed in the small 26.2-inning sample in 2021. The young hurler has been effective in his first two starts of 2023 as well. Despite allowing a home run in each game, Ryan posted reasonably good MLB DFS scores for the salary required to roster him, particularly considering that the game in which he allowed four runs also saw him strike out 10 of the Astros’ excellent lineup. He had six strikeouts and allowed just one run and three hits against the Royals in his first outing of the year. Ryan can be deployed against this Yankees lineup, but the New York stack is also very much in play. The loaded lineup has D.J. LeMahieu in the top spot. The multi-position infielder is inexpensive and off to a good start, he is slashing .263/.333/.500 with a 130 WRC+ and a home run over his first 42 plate appearances, setting the table effectively for the mashers lurking behind him. The largest of those lurkers, unable to hide behind basically anyone on the planet, is hulking home run hitter Aaron Judge. The superstar outfielder has four home runs and two stolen bases on the season so far, and he will always be under-appreciated for his excellent hit tool and discerning eye at the plate. If Judge were not 11 feet tall he would have even better than his career .394 on-base percentage, he is the victim of more bad calls on low strikes than anyone else in the league because of his height. Judge manages to get by however, his career triple-slash is .284/.394/.583 and he has been 63% better than average creating runs since entering the league. Judge leads the day in our home run model and is an excellent option at $6,500/$4,600. Lefty first baseman Anthony Rizzo can hit one out against anyone and could easily benefit from the terrific hitting environment and short porch in Yankee Stadium tonight. Rizzo is slashing .282/.396/.410 and creating runs 33% better than average over his first 48 plate appearances. The first baseman hits in front of Giancarlo Stanton, who does everything Judge does from a power perspective, he just tends to hurt himself while doing it. Stanton hits the ball harder than anyone in the game, he has three home runs this season and is striking out at just a 16.7% clip early on while slashing .275/.310/.550 and creating runs 35% better than average. With just a $5,100/$3,400 salary, Stanton is discounted across the industry and should be aggressively included in stacks of Yankees. Second baseman Gleyber Torres has a shot to return to the lineup, Torres is dealing with soreness but made a pinch-running appearance and seems good to go. The power came back in a big way for the young player, he hit 24 home runs last year after cratering to just nine the season before. So far in 2023, Torres is slashing .371/.522/.657 with two home runs and five stolen bases, leading the team at 130% better than average for run creation in very early returns. Torres has been a part of everything that has gone right for New York in the first 12 games of the season. If it seems like the Yankees uncover a diamond in the rough home run hitter every season, that’s only because it is entirely true. The early candidate for the Shane Spencer Award this season is Franchy Cordero, who has been highly regarded for his power potential and contact profile for some time, but who never fully put things together at the Major League level. So far, Cordero has made 27 plate appearances for these Yankees. He has four home runs and a ridiculous .520 ISO while creating runs 104% better than average. While Cordero may turn back into a pumpkin at any time, he adds a stout left-handed stick to a lineup that is in need of one, he could be a great play again tonight with these hitting conditions and just a $2,800/$3,100 salary at first base or in the outfield. Oswaldo Cabrera and Jose Trevino are mix-and-match pieces with capable bats, while rookie Anthony Volpe fills shortstop as an interesting wrap-around play with speed.
Play: Joe Ryan in smallish doses, more if he is unpopular around the industry; Twins stacks, Yankees stacks.
Update Notes: The Twins have Edouard Julien leading off ahead of Correa, which could make Julien moderately interesting when going to Twins stacks. Far more importantly, Byron Buxton is in fact in the lineup for Minnesota, he will hit third tonight after leaving with an injury last night. This gives a bump to Twins stacks in general, and Buxton is easily in play for individual upside, he has a 15.16 in our home run model in this matchup. The Yankees are also rolling out a changed lineup, Gleyber Torres is in the leadoff role with LeMahieu sidelined by achiness. The lineup also includes another former apex prospect who never made it in the form of Willie Calhoun, who costs $2,100/$2,000 in the outfield. Calhoun is a career .240/.298/.403 hitter with a .163 ISO and an 83 WRC+ in 945 plate appearances in the Show. Kyle Higashioka is starting behind the plate for New York, “Higgy” is the better bat between the two catchers, despite hitting just 10 home runs last season, had a strong contact profile with a 9.8% barrel rate and a 48.1% hard-hit mark, Higashioka could provide sneaky catcher value on both sites.
Detroit Tigers (+200/3.65) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-222/5.47)
The lowly Tigers lineup will look to ruin Thursday night for righty starter Chris Bassitt. The veteran hurler has dropped to $8,200 on DraftKings and he is at a very cheap $7,300 on the FanDuel slate. Bassitt was very good for several years in recent memory, but he has had a brutal start to 2023. In his first outing, the righty went just 3.1 innings, facing 19 hitters and allowing 10 hits. He was charged with nine earned runs in that outing and, most concerningly, he allowed a whopping four home runs to the Cardinals’ excellent lineup while striking out no one. Bassitt was better in his second start, he managed five strikeouts and allowed just two hits and two earned runs over six innings against the Angels. If that version of the pitcher shows up, he could be quite good in this matchup, given his very low pricing around the industry. Bassitt pitched to a 3.72 xFIP over 181.2 innings with a 22.4% strikeout rate last year and he had a 25% strikeout rate over 157.1 innings of 3.93 xFIP ball the year before. There is some degree of potential depth of start and strikeout upside, as well as an ability to pitch cleanly against the somewhat non-threatening Tigers that is giving Bassitt appeal in this spot. The Tigers lineup has been downright bad this season, the team features just three hitters who have been above average for run creation this season, and two of those have made 20 or fewer plate appearances. The Tigers have plenty of strikeouts in their lineup as well, the projected starting lineup is well below average striking out so far this season. Bassitt looks like a quality option with his low salary, pending his ownership forecasts around the industry, he could be a very good play on this slate. Tigers bats can be looked at as a minor asset on this slate, the team comes cheap and can provide value, particularly if one is inclined to believe that Bassitt is on shaky ground with pitch clock and pacing narratives. The issue, as usual, is that Detroit is simply not very good. Akil Baddoo is one of the three players above average for run creation, but he has made just 16 plate appearances since rejoining the club. Baddoo is joined by Riley Greene, who is slashing .256/.304/.372 with an 89 WRC+, a home run, and a stolen base over 46 plate appearances, and Nick Maton, who is slashing .143/.294/.393 with two home runs over his first 34 opportunities. Things get worse from there. That group is joined by veteran Javier Baez, as well as Matt Vierling in the middle. Both players hold minor appeal, Baez still has power for days it just comes out less frequently. Kerry Carpenter is pulling a team-leading 5.11 mark in the home run model, putting the lefty slugger on the board for power potential but not much else. At $2,900/$2,400 one could do worse than Carpenter as sneaky low-owned low-caliber one-off plays go. Spencer Torkelson should eventually come around, but he is at just .238/.250/.357 and is the second-best Spencer on the Tigers tonight behind their untalented starting pitcher. The balance of this lineup does not offer much for MLB DFS potential.
The Blue Jays, on the other hand look to be in a very favorable matchup against Spencer Turnbull. The righty is a targetable pitcher who is carrying a 13.50 ERA and a 6.87 xFIP into his start this evening. Turnbull was crushed by the Rays over 2.1 innings in his first start, allowing seven runs on eight hits, his second outing against the Red Sox was not much better with five runs coming on five hits, including a home run. The long ball was a bit of an aberration for the righty, he has been demonstrably good at keeping the ball in the yard, and nothing else, throughout his short career. Turnbull may not give up a home run tonight, though the Blue Jays have excellent options for one against any pitcher, but he is probably in trouble against an offense as good as Toronto’s. The Blue Jays are a major stacking option on this slate and Turnbull is not in play on the mound. The confirmed Blue Jays lineup starts in typical form with the excellent trio of George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who have eight combined home runs this season. Springer costs $5,300/$3,700 as the cheapest member of the group, while Bichette is a $5,800/$4,300 option and Guerrero checks in at $5,700/$3,900. Where they can be afforded together, the Blue Jays 1-3 is among the best groups in baseball. Daulton Varsho hit 27 home runs last year while creating runs six percent better than average, he is in the cleanup spot for a mere $4,100/$3,200, helping to immediately offset some of the cost of his more talented teammates. Varsho is slashing .317/.420/.463 with a home run and two stolen bases already this season. The outfielder is followed by column favorite Matt Chapman, who is off to an otherworldly start to his 2023 after a very strong year for power in 2022. Chapman has hit three home runs and stolen an unexpected base in his 52 plate appearances, he has a .362 ISO and has created runs 188% better than average while slashing .489/.538/.851 to start the season. The third baseman is justifiably expensive in the middle of the lineup, he should be aggressively included in Blue Jays stacks. Alejandro Kirk is a solid option behind the plate on both sites for just $4,000/$2,700, he projects for a reasonable fantasy score and can provide both correlated and individual hitting value at the plate. Lefty slugger Brandon Belt costs just $2,500/$2,200, he is an undervalued asset on this slate and could easily go deep. Belt hit just eight home runs in his limited 298 plate appearances last year but he hit 29 in 381 tries in 2021 and is a career .260/.355/.456 hitter with a .196 ISO who has created runs 23% better than average, the quality is coming for the big lefty. Whit Merrifield and Cavan Biggio are quality options who can function as inexpensive unpopular wraparound plays with multi-position eligibility to offset cost and popularity while stacking the top of the lineup.
Play: Chris Bassitt, Blue Jays stacks
Update Notes: As if the weird slate needed another minimum-priced option, Tyler Nevin, is apparently on the Tigers now and he will be hitting second at the minimum with first and third-base eligibility on both sites tonight. Nevin hit two home runs in 184 plate appearances last year with Baltimore, he has a mid-range home run profile through his minor league career and could see playing time at age 25, but he is not a great option. Akil Baddoo drops to the seven spot in the confirmed lineup while Javier Baez slots in sixth behind Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson. The Blue Jays, thankfully, were confirmed in the original version of this artcile.
Pittsburgh Pirates (+230/3.29) @ St. Louis Cardinals (-256/5.33)
The Pirates are in St. Louis to lose to the Cardinals tonight. Pittsburgh will be facing quality left-handed starter Jordan Montgomery who is drawing one of the better pitching projections in our model on this slate. Montgomery is a reliable veteran arm who will be taking on a Pirates’ lineup that is absent its best overall player with Oneil Cruz suffering an unfortunate leg injury last week. Without Cruz, the Pirates are down to Bryan Reynolds and cardboard cutouts of hitters. Montgomery, meanwhile, has made two effective starts to open 2023. The southpaw threw five innings and allowed three runs to the Blue Jays in a three-strikeout performance in his first outing, then struck out nine Brewers hitters on his way to a three-hit shutout over seven innings in his second start. Montgomery could easily replicate that outing against the lowly Pirates, he has the ability to pitch deep into this game and reach the quality start bonus where that matters, and he should have an excellent shot at booking the win in this contest, his team’s implied run total leads the slate tonight. Montgomery costs just $8,500 on DraftKings and $9,400 on FanDuel, it is reasonable to expect that he will be popular in this matchup with that pricing, but he seems worth the roster spots regardless of his utilization around the industry. Playable Pirates bats include Ke’Bryan Hayes who slots into the projected leadoff role ahead of Bryan Reynolds. Reynolds is now the best player in this lineup, he is slashing .347/.358/.735 with five home runs so far this season. Hayes has been disappointing throughout his young career so far, but he is a correlation play in the projected batting order. Andrew McCutchen has a home run and three stolen bases in his return to Pittsburgh, the outfielder is still capable at the plate as well, he is slashing .323/.476/.484 with a 162 WRC+ over his first 42 plate appearances. Switch-hitting Carlos Santana has scuffled to just a .222/.300/.422 line so far but he has hit two home runs and has a .200 ISO in the early part of the season, he is joined for power potential in the projected lineup by Ji-Man Choi who has hit two home runs of his own. Choi has a .259 ISO over his small 27 plate appearances sample in 2023, but he is slashing .148/.148/.407 and has created runs 64% below average, the two home runs are basically the only thing he has contributed so far. Connor Joe is also potentially in play against a lefty, but the bottom of the Pirates’ lineup is where MLB DFS quality goes to die.
The Cardinals return to the top of the Power Index today in a matchup against the highly targetable Vince Velasquez, who was featured as a pitcher to attack in this space in his first outing. He gave up two home runs to the Reds in a 4.2-inning performance that saw him strike out just three. In his second outing of the season, Velasquez lasted just 2.2 innings, giving up five runs on six hits and four walks while striking out just one White Sox hitter. This is a situation in which the Cardinals should be a fantastic option for MLB DFS scoring via multiple mechanisms. The board is showing them as an excellent option for home run upside, but the team is very good at sequencing, getting on base, and using their speed, Velasquez will not be long for this outing, and Cardinals bats should be a major part of the puzzle tonight. The team is rarely far from a paragraph filled with glowing praise in this space, the Cardinals are simply one of the game’s best overall lineups. From top to bottom there is a strong mix of power, speed, and hit/on-base acumen. The projected lineup begins in the left-handed configuration facing the right-handed Velasquez, with Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson up top. Donovan hit just five home runs with a .097 ISO in 2022, but he has two on the board already this season with a .143 ISO. Donovan is typically more of a correlation piece, but that part of his game has been slow out of the gate, he sits at a 72 WRC+ on the young season. Burleson is slashing .300/.364/.567 with a home run and a .267 ISO in his 34 plate appearances this year. The outfielder hit just one home run over his 53 plate appearances in a cup of coffee last year, but he had a terrific contact profile in that sample. Burleson had a 10.3% barrel rate and a 48.7% hard-hit percentage in that small sample, so far this season he has a 53.8% hard-hit mark but is yet to barrel a ball, this is a player whose power potential warrants monitoring as the weather warms. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado should not need much setup, Goldschmidt has a 55.6% hard-hit rate and an 11.1% barrel rate over his first 55 plate appearances, and Arenado is at a 42.9% and 7.1% so far but will come around for better contact in a realistic sample. Goldschmidt has a home run and is slashing .364/.491/.523 with a .159 ISO and Arenado is at .327/.382/.490 with a .163 ISO. The duo has been spectacular for power and run creation over time, there is no arguing with the sample for these two hitters, if they can be afforded they should be in Cardinals stacks. Catcher Willson Contreras hit 22 home runs last year and 21 the season before, he is one of the game’s best backstops at the plate and he costs just $4,400/$2,400. Nolan Gorman was largely a forgotten man in re-draft season-long fantasy leagues this season and he has already begun to make gamers pay for their mistake. The mashing second baseman leads the Cardinals with four home runs this season, and he is slashing .313/.436/.750 with a hilarious .438 ISO. Gorman has created runs 103% better than average this season, he was a highly regarded prospect who made his ascent to the Majors last season and responded with 14 home runs in 313 plate appearances with a 14.4% barrel rate. Gorman is a very good bat at second base for $3,800/$3,300 across the MLB DFS industry. Another very good power bat in this lineup is Tyler O’Neill, who slots in at $4,500/$2,400, the discount on Contreras and O’Neill on the FanDuel slate is noteworthy. O’Neill was hurt for much of last season, he hit 34 home runs and stole 15 bases in 537 plate appearances in 2021 and is slashing .282/.317/.436 with two homers and a stolen base to start 2023. Adding this year’s hot prospect, Jordan Walker, who cannot stop hitting, to this Cardinals lineup is downright unfair. Walker is slashing .319/.360/.489 with two home runs and a steal over his first 50 plate appearances. Tommy Edman is one of baseball’s better wraparound plays from the bottom of the batting order, he has moderate pop of his own and is a strong correlation play.
Play: Jordan Montgomery, Cardinals stacks aggressively
Update Notes:
Milwaukee Brewers (+137/4.11) @ San Diego Padres (-149/4.99)
The final game of the night sees the Brewers in San Diego to battle with the Padres, who will have righty Nick Martinez on the mound at $7,400/$8,100 around the industry. Martinez made 10 starts last year and pitched to a 21.2% strikeout rate with a 4.04 xFIP, this season he has made two starts of similarly average quality. Martinez allowed four runs on six hits while striking out five Rockies in seven innings in his first outing, then yielded four runs on four hits while striking out four in a road game against Atlanta. The righty gave up a home run in each of those games, he allowed a 3.35% home run rate with an 8.1% barrel mark and a 37% hard-hit rate last season, making him a mid-range power target. Martinez is not lousy for giving up long balls, but he is not great at keeping the ball in the yard either. Against the Brewers there could be home run upside for the offense, and the pitcher may not have much of a ceiling. Martinez projects as a mid-pack option for MLB DFS tonight, it is not a mistake to deploy him in lineups, but the play is somewhat thin, and on a short slate the pitcher could be overly popular for his quality. The Brewers projected lineup takes a familiar form, with former MVP Christian Yelich teasing gamers from the leadoff spot. Yelich is still a fine overall player, he has a home run and a stolen base in his 56 plate appearances this season and is slashing .245/.339/.327 but his early run creation mark is just an 85 WRC+ and he has been a shade of the player who won that award in recent seasons. Yelich hits too many ground balls and too few home runs, but his overall quality keeps him as a major part of Milwaukee stacks. Jesse Winker should return to the lineup after battling an unspecified illness the past few days. Winker has an intriguing blend of power and hit-tool, and he has been hot out of the gate slashing .308/.387/.385 with a 111 WRC+, though his power is yet to arrive this year. The pair of lefties can be played in a stack with shortstop Willy Adames, who has three home runs on the season with a .227 ISO after hitting 31 with a .220 ISO and a 109 WRC+ last year. Rowdy Tellez is projected to hit in the cleanup spot, the big lefty has a team-leading 10.60 in our home run model today and looks like a fair bet for a long ball at what could be a lack of popularity. Tellez hit 35 home runs in 2022, he has two already this season, just ignore everything else about his .147/.250/.353 triple-slash and 59 WRC+ and focus on the power upside and things will be OK. Garrett Mitchell remains too cheap at $3,100/$3,200, at this point one has to wonder if he hasn’t campaigned against Daily Fantasy Sports in the past, given his lack of a price bump while slashing .316/.366/.632 with three home runs and a 159 WRC+ early in the season. William Contreras is a strong catcher play with a 131 WRC+ but no home runs to this point, and Brian Anderson can be included in stacks. Anderson has hit three home runs and has a .286 ISO to start the year. Brice Turang and Joey Wiemer can be mixed and matched in varying stacks of Brewers bats, Turang offers speed and a reasonable ability to hit and get on base as a cheap wraparound play.
The Padres will be at home to face Brewers’ right-handed opener Bryse Wilson in the late game. Wilson opened 20 games and pitched 115.2 innings last season in his hybrid role, posting a 15.5% strikeout rate while allowing a massive 43.4% hard-hit rate with a 7.7% barrel mark and a 90.8-mph average exit velocity, leading to a 3.93% home run rate against. Wilson was worse for power over his 16 starts in 2021, he gave up a 42.3% hard-hit mark with a 9.9% barrel rate and an 89mph average exit velocity, which resulted in a 4.66% home run rate. He struck out just 14.3% of hitters that season while pitching to a 5.10 xFIP, last year’s xFIP was at least somewhat improved at 4.54, but this is not what anyone would think of as a good pitcher. Wilson can be targeted for power and run-creation purposes with Padres bats tonight. Wilson will get chased early, even in a good outing he should only be expected to pitch two or three innings, but the Padres have the quality to keep the ball rolling against whatever comes out of the Brewers’ quality bullpen. Left-handed Trent Grisham is projected to lead off for San Diego. Grisham hit 17 home runs but slashed just .184/.284/.341 last year, making him an odd choice for the leadoff role in general. The outfielder comes cheap at $3,800 on DraftKings and $2,700 on FanDuel, he is pulling in an 8.72 mark in our home run model, ranking him third on the team behind the excellent opportunities projected for the next two hitters. Manny Machado and Juan Soto are both over the “magic number” in our home run model, with Machado at 11.39 and Soto at 11.83. Soto is second to only Aaron Judge on the overall board. So far this season the superstar outfielder is slashing .217/.368/.478, the hit tool is still missing in action, but he has hit three home runs and has a .261 ISO while creating runs 27% better than average. Machado has hit no home runs and is slashing .250/.286/.308 while creating runs 37% worse than average, numbers that absolutely will be different as the sample grows. Machado is far too good to be kept down for very long. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts has been exactly as-advertised to this point for his new team. Bogaerts basically comes out of the box with a great slash-line, he is currently at .327/.414/.633 with a .306 ISO, four home runs, a stolen base, and a mark that sits 75% above average for run creation in the very young season. The shortstop is an under-appreciated MLB DFS producer, he should not be skipped in Padres’ stacks. Jake Cronenworth hit 17 home runs last year and 21 the year before, he exemplifies the mid-range power that is in abundance through the back half of the Padres’ projected batting order. Cronenworth is affordable at $4,300 on DraftKings and he is cheap at $2,600 with multi-position eligibility on the blue site. Matt Carpenter is looking to prove that last year’s zombie revival was no flash in the pan, he is off to a .200/.355/.360 start, with a .160 ISO and one home run. Ha-Seong Kim is more a hit tool and speed player, but he has 11 home runs on the board from 2022 and another eight the year before, he can be played as a correlation piece who can surprise with an infrequent long ball. Rougned Odor and Austin Nola round out the bottom of the lineup.
Play: Brewers stacks, some Nick Martinez, Padres stacks
Update Notes: The Brewers are opting for Colin Rea to start the game instead of Bryse Wilson. Rea is not a good pitcher, this is giving an even bigger spike to Padres in our Power Index, San Diego looks like an excellent option on this slate.
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