The mid-week MLB DFS day is split into chunks all over the map. Fortunately, DraftKings and FanDuel seem to agree that the set of games beginning at 6:35 ET is the day’s Main Slate, this Power Index is focused on that slate. To no one’s surprise, the Braves are leading the way again, they are slated to face the Reds and strikeout artist Hunter Greene, while the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Orioles are flashing the power available in the American League East this year. The slate is somewhat short on premium pitching options, so loading up and winning with bats looks to be a strong approach to tonight’s action.

Main Slate Power Index – 4/12/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates

The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column is the average of our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their biggest bats.

The high-strikeout power-packed Atlanta Braves lineup is in an interesting matchup against young righty Hunter Greene. In his first full season in the Majors last year, Greene posted an impressive 30.9% strikeout rate over 24 starts and 125.2 innings. The flamethrower has a fastball that reaches the 99th percentile of the velocity charts and a filthy slider, he is a strikeout artist and he is capable of posting a very strong game, but he is not the fully polished final version of himself just yet. Greene pitched to a sharp 3.64 xFIP last year with a 14.5% swinging-strike rate but he walked nine percent of hitters and had a 4.44 ERA with an unsightly 4.52% home run rate. The long balls came on the back of a healthy 40.1% hard-hit rate allowed on a 20.7-degree average launch angle, Greene allowed a 9.4% barrel rate and an average exit velocity of about 90mph. Against a team like Atlanta, he seems likely to give up a couple of home runs at a minimum. The starter is talented to allow dingers and still post a strong score, solo shots will not harm him, but if the Braves work walks and sequence against him before they go deep, Greene could be in trouble. The Atlanta lineup has been a fixture in this space and others for the entire season to this point, they are looking like a strong play again tonight. Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, and Austin Riley have eight combined home runs already this season, with Acuna adding five stolen bases. Olson leads the way with four home runs and a WRC+ that sits 86% above the league average. Acuna is 49% above average for run creation to this point in the young season, while Riley is the low man at “only” 41% above average. The trio is one of baseball’s best groups, they will be recommended for stacking all season. Beyond that group the projected lineup should be either of the Braves’ excellent catchers, Sean Murphy or Travis d’Arnaud, as well as veteran outfielders Eddie Rosario and Marcell Ozuna. It would not be entirely surprising to see one of the pair rest, Rosario is slashing just .194/.242/.226 with no home runs and a .032 ISO in 33 tries and Ozuna is at .094/.216/.281 but has two home runs and a .188 ISO in his 37 plate appearances, but they are playable for random home run power if they are in the lineup. The duo should at least be lower-owned and they are less expensive, helping to mix and match lineup combinations. Orlando Arcia hit nine home runs in just 234 plate appearances last year, he has a touch of pop in his bat as does Samuel Hilliard, whose lefty bat has been mentioned in this space recently as a cheap and sneaky option late in this popular lineup.

While the Red Sox and Blue Jays are in very good spots for power upside in their matchups, the Orioles seem like the most intriguing spot in a home game against lefty Ken Waldichuk. The rookie hurler made seven starts in a cup of coffee in the Show last year, putting up a 4.26 xFIP with a 22.6% strikeout rate in 34.2 innings. Waldichuk had a 3.42% home run rate and allowed a massive 12.1% barrel rate with a 37.4% hard-hit mark. The starter rocketed up prospect boards on the back of excellent strikeout marks throughout the minor leagues in 2021 and 2022, but he has always allowed some home run power. To this point in 2023, Waldichuk has been a disaster. He has made two starts, covering 8.2 innings while allowing 17 hits and getting charged with 14 earned runs. A ridiculous seven of those 17 hits have been home runs, Waldichuk currently has a 14.9% home run rate allowed in the tiny sample. He has only struck out seven hitters, giving him an equal strikeout rate of 14.9%. Waldichuk looks like a major target for the heavily right-handed power-hitting Orioles. The projected lineup sees Austin Hays in the leadoff role, the right-handed Hays hit 16 home runs in 582 plate appearances last season and 22 the year before in 529 tries. Hays costs just $3,800/$2,900 from site to site and could get things started quickly as what could be an under-owned option in MLB DFS tournaments. He is followed by excellent catcher Adley Rutschman, who can easily be deployed on either site. The backstop costs $5,100 on DraftKings, which is probably too cheap with the positional requirement and this matchup, and just $3,600 on FanDuel. Rutschman has hit three home runs and has a .233 ISO with a .395/.490/.628 triple-slash to this point in the season. Ryan Mountcastle has been one of this site’s featured breakout players over the season’s first two weeks and he has in no way disappointed. The slugging first baseman came into the year after posting a contact profile that rivaled the best hitters in the game and, coming into today off of a nine-RBI night, he seems to be right on form. Mountcastle is slashing .289/.320/.711 and creating runs 71% better than average. He has five home runs and a titanic .422 ISO over his first 50 plate appearances. Anthony Santander checks into the middle of the lineup for $4,100/$2,800 from DraftKings to FanDuel. The switch-hitter gets an equal amount of power against both hands for his career, he has a .209 ISO against righties as a lefty hitter and a .202 mark as a right-handed bat against lefties. Overall, Santander’s run creation and triple-slash have been better against southpaws, this is a good spot for him and he is too cheap because he is currently slashing .186/.265/.279 over his first 49 plate appearances, in which he has no home runs. The bat will come around, it makes sense to invest now. Ramon Urias has hit a home run and has a .182 ISO with a 125 WRC+, which is not bad for a player who costs just $3,300/$2,900 with eligibility at second and third base on both sites. Urias hit 16 home runs in 445 plate appearances with a 9.6% barrel rate and a 46.5% hard-hit mark last season, he has under-appreciated pop when he is in the lineup, particularly against a lefty with power issues. Catcher James McCann could see a start against Waldichuk as well, he is a platoon specialist who costs merely $2,200 as a backstop on DraftKings, giving him value if he gets the starting nod. McCann could catch with Rutschman in the DH role, they are not mutually exclusive in this spot and the Orioles would be remiss to exclude the star bat in this matchup. For McCann, the truly reliable years, even as a platoon man, are mostly behind him, but he does have a handful of home runs in each of the last few seasons against lefties, he is a discount play. Lefty Gunnar Henderson is slashing .129/.325/.258 with a 79 WRC+, he could sit against a left-handed starter for a quick reset. Jorge Mateo, meanwhile, is slashing .286/.375/.500 with a 147 WRC+ and six stolen bases. Mateo has added two home runs, but the most important number is the middle of his triple-slash, if Mateo is getting on base at a .375 clip all year he could steal 80 bases. Cedric Mullins II may land in the nine spot, he loses much of his quality against left-handed pitching, but he can be mixed and matched as needed.