The main NFL DFS slate features too many viable combinations to count in a lifetime, even when we eliminate several of the lower-end stacks we are left with possibilities galore at several positions. With NFL DFS picks, tips, tricks, touts, shoutouts, tweets, spreadsheets, slams, and sims coming from every direction all week, the purpose of this article is to feature a few plays for which our projections land above or below what appears to be the industry standard for the week, which will identify plays that are potentially over or undervalued by the public.

*note – despite the title of this article and what would probably be a more logical configuration, the “below” category comes first in the following content.

NFL DFS Sunday Main Slate Above/Below – Week 6

Below

Jalen Hurts – Quarterback – Philadelphia Eagles – $8,200/$8,700

After an appearance on the Above side last week, Hurts flips to slightly below industry average projections in our model in a game against the Jets with a fairly low total in Week 6. Hurts is an exceptional quarterback option on most fantasy slates, he has strong individual upside with his rushing production and a unique ability to find the end zone on his own, and he has excellent weapons both in the passing game and on the ground. And that is to say nothing of the Eagles’ offensive line. The matchup against the Jets, who maintain a fairly strong defense even in the absence of star cornerback Sauce Gardner, is not the best overall. The Eagles check into Sunday with a 24.25-point implied team total, which has them three points behind last week’s mark in Vegas and more than a point below their average weekly implied total for the season. Hurts has six passing touchdowns and four interceptions this season with 7.5 yards per pass attempt and 33.6 attempts per game. The quarterback has a robust 9.4 intended air yards per attempt with 4.8 air yards per attempt completed, and he is a star on the ground both in the open field and via the “brotherly shove” play that was only overshadowed by the buzz of the pop star dating world as this year’s hottest football trend. Hurts is a strong weekly option, there is no denying his value even if we expect the Jets defense to perform, but he is not at a peak projection and he is priced at the top of the board on both sites. Hurts ranks sixth by raw fantasy points on both sites but he sits 22nd by points-per-dollar on DraftKings and 12th for value on FanDuel. We will have shares of Hurts and the Eagles stack, but unless he is very low-owned we are likely to be below the field’s exposure.

Tyler Allgeier – Running Back, Atlanta Falcons – $4,600/$5,700

Through little fault of his own, Allgeier basically lost his starting role to a more talented running back, despite a strong 2022 season. This year, Allgeier has given up carries and the primary job to rookie Bijan Robinson, though he has maintained some upside in the ground game in several weeks. Allgeier was somewhat involved in the season’s early weeks, with 15 carries in Week 1 and 16 in Week 2, but he fell to just seven carries in each of weeks three and four before popping back up for 17 carries last week in a game in which Bijan Robinson struggled to get anything going. Assuming a return to form for Robinson, and there is nothing to suggest otherwise, it seems reasonable to think that Allgeier will again be dropped to fewer than 10 carries, relegating him to a very limited touchdown-dependent role. He is not unplayable as the 27th-ranked option by points and 28th by value on DraftKings (25/30 FD), but he is not as strong an option in our model as other sites are pushing, we land more than two points behind the average projection and closer to the player’s weekly average over the early part of the year. For his part, Allgeier has been just OK with the ball in his hands, posting 3.10 yards per rush attempt with two touchdowns on 12.4 carries per game and 40% of the team’s snaps overall.

San Francisco 49ers – the Offense, not the Defense

Look, the 49ers have terrific skill players in Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk, and their quarterback Brock Purdy has been terrific despite the many lingering doubters. The issue in this game is not the talent in play on the San Francisco side, they can be expected to do at least some scoring, but the game will be played in rough rain and wind conditions, and it has a season-low game total in Vegas at just 36 points, with San Francisco pulling an implied total of 23. In addition to the wind and rain, the 49ers will be facing a stout Cleveland defense that has been good on both sides of the coin. The Browns rank second with 3.2 yards per rush attempt and 4.7 yards per pass attempt allowed on the season and they have pressured the quarterback at a 30% rate on a nearly identical blitz rate while limiting passing touchdowns to just three in their five games. On top of that, the Browns will be playing this one with PJ Walker at quarterback, which has a severely limiting impact on the upside for scoring overall, San Francisco can put up two touchdowns then go for snacks, this game is likely over before it started with the only question being where does it fall for DFS value. We are below the field by about 1.5 points on Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel sits about a half-point behind his average, as do Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, while Christian McCaffrey is right on the line with our colleagues around the industry, he is an unstoppable machine that has at least one rushing touchdown in every game this season.

Lingering Lows

• Los Angeles Rams D
• Emari Demarcado
• Michael Pittman Jr.
• Mac Jones
• Dameon Pierce
• Garrett Wilson

Above

Trevor Lawrence – Quarterback, Jacksonville Jaguars – $6,500/$7,600

The Jaguars have all the luxury options that a similarly named car brand possesses, they are a sleek scoring machine when things are going right, and skill players like Travis Etienne Jr., Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram have excellent fantasy scoring potential on any given slate. The Jaguars are yet to connect as an offense fully, they have hit in parts and they have had good games, but there are monster performances lurking for this offense, and Week 6 could be when they emerge. The Colts are a pass-funnel defense that sits 13th with 3.8 yards per rush attempt allowed but 24th with 7.1 yards per attempt allowed in the passing game, and they are carrying just a 20.9% pressure rate on 15.2% blitzes while allowing 262.8 yards per game through the air and a 7.8-yard defensive ADOT. Lawrence has excellent downfield options, he projects for a big day and is already posting 250 yards on 36 pass attempts per game this season with seven yards per pass attempt and a 7.1 yard intended air yards mark. The combination of Lawrence and high-value receiver Calvin Ridley is a top priority, but the Jaguars can be deployed in Lawrence + 2 configurations with all of the other skill players as key contributors in stacks.

David Montgomery – Running Back, Detroit Lions – $7,300/$8,100

Montgomery appeared in this space last week, his DraftKings price appropriately went up by $600 after another strong performance and with the continued absence of Jahmyr Gibbs, while FanDuel somehow lowered his price by several hundred. Montgomery posted 109 yards with a touchdown on 19 carries in his 45 snaps last week, adding another 20 yards by catching two of his six targets. The running back had a big week four, he carried the ball 32 times and put up 121 yards and three touchdowns. Montgomery was winning the battle for early down touches when Gibbs was healthy, he owns the backfield now, though Craig Reynolds was involved and productive himself last week, adding seven carries for 52 yards and a touchdown to the damage that Montgomery did on the ground. Detroit faces a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 17th with 4.1 yards allowed per rush attempt, there is strong upside here and Montgomery ranks second by raw fantasy points at the running back position while sitting fifth by points-per-dollar on DraftKings and first by value at the position on FanDuel.

Joe Burrow – Quarterback, Cincinnati Bengals – $6,300/$7,500

After a cold start to the season while dealing with a calf injury, it was highly encouraging to see Joe Burrow back on form in Week 5. The Bengals star quarterback connected with his top option for three touchdowns while going 36-46 for 317 yards and throwing just one interception. Most importantly, Burrow was able to get the ball out deep and he was far more mobile than in prior performances this season, which all augers well for another strong outing in a very good matchup in all things but weather. The Seahawks are allowing a 21st-ranked 6.8 yards per pass attempt on the season and they have given up 280 yards per game and five passing touchdowns in their four games this season. Burrow has just 209 yards per game with five touchdowns, but the first four weeks of the season should be mostly discarded, this is a great fantasy quarterback rounding into form with effective weapons on the ground and in the air. Burrow stacks very well with prime weapon Ja’Marr Chase as well as Tee Higgins, who is expected to play after missing last week, adding an arrow to Burrow’s quiver. Joe Mixon provides an excellent option on the ground against a tough rush defense, while the receiving game also includes Tyler Boyd and Trenton Irwin in small doses. Burrow has value with the third-highest DraftKings quarterback projection and the 4th-ranked points-per-dollar mark on the site, he sits at the same rankings on the blue site this morning.

Honorable Mentions:

• Tua Tagovailoa
• Calvin Ridley
• Joshua Dobbs
• Breece Hall
• Olamide Zacchaeus
• Robert Woods
• Nico Collins
• 49ers Defense
• Christian Kirk
• Cooper Kupp

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