This article focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within the industry’s optimization tools. All of the concepts and pairings included below can also apply to hand-building. The goal is to create lineups with strong correlations among likely point-scorers to maximize the gains from infrequent scoring events within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.
This video was made in a former life and features a detailed demonstration of how to apply these concepts in one leading optimizer tool: Fantasy Cruncher – How-To Video
All references to Sims were done via friends of the site: acemind.io
Don’t miss the Above/Below feature article for a few of our top picks, coming Sunday morning
Game notes are updated during the week and initially posted as “work in progress” as they take a long time to create, if teams are missing notes simply check back later in the day/week and they should be updated.
2025 Week 1 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stack Rankings
The following stack rankings were created by pairing each team quarterback with his top three scoring options, whether they are three wide receivers, two wide receivers and a tight end, a wide receiver, tight end, and running back, or any viable combination. In some cases, an expensive running back can push the overall price point of his team stack in the value rankings.
| TEAM | OPP | FD$ | FDpRank | FDvalRank | DK$ | DkpRank | DKvalRank | Vegas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | CLE | $31,200 | 1 | 1 | $28,000 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| TB | ATL | $28,100 | 2 | 2 | $24,900 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| DET | GB | $30,900 | 3 | 18 | $26,800 | 3 | 19 | 13 |
| LAR | HOU | $29,400 | 4 | 14 | $26,100 | 4 | 15 | 11 |
| MIA | IND | $28,600 | 5 | 10 | $25,100 | 5 | 8 | 11 |
| ARI | NO | $27,900 | 6 | 6 | $24,200 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| SF | SEA | $27,500 | 7 | 5 | $24,200 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| ATL | TB | $28,300 | 8 | 12 | $25,100 | 8 | 12 | 10 |
| LV | NE | $26,600 | 10 | 4 | $23,800 | 9 | 5 | 17 |
| JAC | CAR | $26,500 | 9 | 3 | $22,500 | 10 | 2 | 4 |
| WAS | NYG | $27,300 | 11 | 11 | $23,200 | 11 | 6 | 2 |
| SEA | SF | $27,500 | 13 | 19 | $22,300 | 12 | 11 | 16 |
| DEN | TEN | $25,500 | 12 | 7 | $23,600 | 13 | 22 | 3 |
| NYG | WAS | $25,500 | 16 | 16 | $22,100 | 14 | 17 | 20 |
| HOU | LAR | $24,500 | 15 | 9 | $23,400 | 15 | 23 | 20 |
| GB | DET | $26,000 | 14 | 15 | $22,000 | 16 | 18 | 4 |
| IND | MIA | $26,300 | 17 | 20 | $21,400 | 17 | 14 | 8 |
| NO | ARI | $25,100 | 18 | 17 | $20,800 | 18 | 10 | 22 |
| CAR | JAC | $23,700 | 19 | 13 | $21,100 | 19 | 13 | 15 |
| NYJ | PIT | $25,800 | 21 | 21 | $21,200 | 20 | 21 | 23 |
| NE | LV | $23,000 | 20 | 8 | $20,500 | 21 | 16 | 9 |
| CLE | CIN | $24,300 | 22 | 22 | $19,400 | 22 | 9 | 17 |
| TEN | DEN | $23,800 | 23 | 23 | $19,100 | 23 | 20 | 24 |
| PIT | NYJ | $23,700 | 24 | 24 | $20,500 | 24 | 24 | 19 |
Week 1 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stacks & Optimizer Groups
Overview
Rules and limits are powerf ul tools for lineup creation for NFL DFS where our primary focus is creating highly correlated lineups via stacking players from the same game. Lineups will typically be coordinated around the quarterback selection, which informs at least one pass-catcher choice, establishes a budget, eliminates a defense, and sets the tone for the lineup. We will typically look to correlate a quarterback and at least one of his pass-catchers in every lineup, with many of those including a skill player from the opposing team. This player is included to support the stack in a high-scoring game that drives offense on both sides, creating additional correlated scoring potential. Stacking multiple pass-catchers in the same lineup is a sound approach, though there are typically overall ceilings on how much volume is available at any given position. While pass-catching running backs can be prioritized in stacks and group tools, including running backs who are not involved in the passing game is less important at this stage, they will fall naturally into shares as needed. High-volume backs and pass catchers out of the backfield can be included in the groups utilized below, but it is frequently not necessary to do so with the very best players, they arrive in lineups without help.
Rules and limits are typically applied in an optimizer’s Advanced Options menu. Notes are included to illustrate the reasons behind each rule and explain what it does during the lineup creation process. These settings can typically be saved for re-use, which is highly recommended. Saving the groups created below is also a good idea that will save time with updates instead of recreation each week. These groups are created manually, but most optimizers include automated group creators that can help accelerate the curation process.
DraftKings + FanDuel Settings & Advanced Options
Note – Terminology may vary from site to site but these are common functions across most industry tools.
Unique Players Per Lineup– This setting forces the optimizer to utilize at least X new players who were not in Lineup 1 when it creates Lineup 2, and so on. We recommend a setting of at least two unique players, more can be applied depending on the degree of differentiation desired within lineups.
Team Salary– a minimum or maximum salary spend can be applied here as needed, although leaving salary on the table is an easy path toward creating unique lineups while not necessarily making a negative expected value play.
FLEX position– allows restrictions on what positions can be rostered at the FLEX spot. The primary position to restrict is the tight end so that lineups do not include two players from the position. In many industry tools this is a separate option via a checkbox, it can also be handled specifically within groups.
Global Exposure Setting – allows caps on the maximum percentage of lineups a player can appear in within a given pool of lineup construction. This is a powerful tool for shaping lineups but if settings are too low, attempts to build a full set will fall short due to a lack of available players, one of the most common errors in optimizer building. Most optimizers include the ability to calculate ownership caps continuously or at the end of the pool creation process. If caps are calculated continuously, a player with a 25% cap who is utilized in Lineup 1 will not be available for use again until Lineup 5, we recommend turning OFF continuous calculation.
Randomness – provides a random multiplier to each player’s projected point total based on the set values. This valuable tool helps differentiate lineups instead of simply creating them in order of the highest median projected scores. Using some randomness for lineup generation is strongly recommended but the degree to which it is applied is down to personal preference, 15-25% is fine to get started. We suggest heavier randomness to more event-based players like wide receivers while tracking volume-based positions like running backs more toward their median or ceiling projections.
DraftKings + FanDuel Team Stack Rules
This set of rules will force optimizers to build lineups with certain combinations. We are looking to stack at least one skill player, almost always a pass-catcher, with his quarterback while frequently playing a skill player from the opposing team in the lineup. The theory behind this build is that a high-scoring stack will require some response from the opposing team to deliver a ceiling score in most situations. Most optimizers utilize a “complete the sentence” approach for rule creation with selections from drop-down menus following a very straightforward logic. Exceptions to these rules can be added for specific teams and players on most optimizer products.
- QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It is fine to set this to two or to utilize two versions of this rule, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can also refine this via Groups)
- optional – QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from the Opposing Team (we typically prefer the pass-catchers but high-volume running backs can be effective here)
- QB with at most zero DST from the Same Team (this is a personal preference; high-scoring teams and quarterbacks tend to leave their defenses on the field, exposing them to simple point-scoring negatives)
Limits & Custom Rules and Requirements
Limit rules can be applied to restrict certain combinations from coming together. This is powerful for limiting multiple running backs from the same team or getting overweight to a certain stack within a lineup.
- Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
- Limit RB/WR/TE from the Same Team to one unless paired with QB from the Same Team OR the Opposing Team (this prevents multiple players from a team that is not a primary quarterback-based stack)
- optional – Limit RB from Same Team to one (we can also do this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s a personal preference for NFL DFS, we typically do not want two pass-catchers from the same team without their quarterback)
We will maintain the list of rules and limits throughout the season, with occasional tweaks. Each week sees another fresh crop of value plays as situations change and injuries create opportunities around the league. These changing roles and emergent value plays are accounted for in creating these groups from week to week. After a large pool of lineups is created utilizing these groups, it is still critical to filter them for factors including ceiling projections and leverage potential. These groups should help ensure that a highly correlated premium set of options that rotates through various combinations is utilized to create the full lineup pool.
Sunday Updates
Any changes and recommended boosts to specific players will be provided in an early morning update each Sunday.
NFL DFS Week 1 Features & FREE Projections
- Week 1 Projections
- Week 1 Above/Below
- Week 1 Quarterback Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 1 Running Back Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 1 Pass-Catcher Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 1 Defense Scoring & Value Rankings
Construction Concept
Team groups are built by utilizing the quarterback as the KEY player in group settings. The quarterback decision is the driving factor in determining which stack the lineup utilizes and which corresponding plays are made to work within the structured requirements. In Fantasy Cruncher, built to specification, each team will have two groups, a team group, and an opponent group, both of which utilize the same quarterback as the key player. Each game will have a total of four groups. This is the best approach to truly capture the requirement of playing individual “run-back” plays from the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to include all of the skill players from a game in each quarterback’s group and rely on rules and limits to restrict any potential overflow. It is highly recommended to save the early season groups as a foundation that will be updated for the rest of the season. The recommended groups will include skill players who have an active role in their offense and provide significant correlation with their quarterback’s scoring, often bell-cow running backs who do not specialize in the passing game will not be included in groups as they are projected highly and appear on their own in basically correct distributions, while also not always providing the strongest positive correlation plays. Stacking quarterbacks with pass-catchers and allowing running backs to fall into the lanes created by settings, available salary, and randomness should create a well-distributed set of quality lineups. These groups are updated weekly to account for changes in utilization, schemes, injuries, target shares, and more.
Team Groups for DraftKings & FanDuel – Week 1
The goal is to create a large pool of well-built lineups that can be utilized in any large-field GPP contest. Our approach is to build far more lineups than needed and utilize a sorting table or sim process to filter to the best set of entries. The lineups created in these crunches should provide a broad distribution that includes some of the lower-owned high-upside skill players from each stack. Applying boosts is critical in pushing and pulling ownership to individual players within their team’s stacked lineups if they appear too much or too little.
The groups below are designed so that each quarterback will have two groups to create, one with his skill players and another with the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to add them all to one large group with an “at least three” and let rules and limits set things, but there is a more granular level of control in creating them separately.
Utilizing two groups also allows us to place running backs into the “run-back” position in certain teams while not including them in the primary stack for their team. This is useful when a situation has an extremely highly projected running back that does not necessarily fit into his team’s passing game. These players are threaded throughout the following construction recommendations.
Note for all optimizers the rules can be utilized to force bring-back plays in some sets of crunches and turned off for others as a global function instead of changing each group to “exactly one” bring-back play, wherever applicable, but it will apply to all teams.
Arizona Cardinals
Game Total: 43.5 / ARI -6.0 (24.75)
Plays: 44.69% rush / 55.31% pass / 23.5 ppg / 5.3 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.9 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass / 23.4 ppg / 6.19% sack / 2.37% int
Key Player: Kyler Murray
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride, James Conner, Michael Wilson, Trey Benson (on/off), Greg Dortch (large field), Zay Jones (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson, Brandin Cooks, Kendre Miller (on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Kyler Murray opens 2025 in a solid matchup against a New Orleans defense that allowed 7.3 yards per pass attempt and 23.4 points per game last season while generating only moderate pressure and a 25th-ranked 6.19% sack rate. Murray averaged 7.1 yards per pass attempt while throwing 31.82 times per game in 2024, if he is able to bring out the dormant talents of Marvin Harrison Jr. he could improve upon his 21 touchdown passes from last season. Murray is QB5 by points and QB 14 by value on DraftKings and lands as QB5/9 on FanDuel, he is a fair mid-board option in a favorable Week 1 contest.
Running Backs
James Conner remains a multi-faceted force out of the backfield for Arizona. The running back ranks 10th by points on DraftKings and fourth by value on the site while sitting 10/10 on FanDuel. Conner picked up a solid 4.6 yards per rush attempt and added 7.5 yards per target on 3.4 opportunities per game through the air, scoring eight times on the ground and once in the passing game in his 16 contests in 2024.
Backup Trey Benson draws a reasonable projection for his low cost. Benson gained 4.6 yards per rush attempt in limited action last season, he is a dart throw option with expected secondary volume in Week 1.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Taking on a pliable pass defense in Week 1 could get second-year receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. off to a solid start in 2025. Harrison’s rookie season was undeniably disappointing, even with eight touchdowns on the board. With just two games of 100+ receiving yards and 7.6 yards per target on the season, Harrison failed to truly shine beyond the value of an average receiver. There are various reads on the struggles, including that Harrison was potentially deployed incorrectly throughout the season by Arizona’s coaching staff. A chance at early-season redemption has the sophomore receiver slotted in as WR16 by points but WR5 by value on DraftKings, he is WR16/11 on the FanDuel slate.
Trey McBride is a rock-solid option at the tight end position. McBride caught 111 passes on 9.2 targets per game last season, posting 7.8 yards per target but somehow scoring just twice. McBride has significant upside for PPR and yardage-based scoring and his touchdown total could skyrocket given the skillset, assuming he sees anything approaching the 20 redzone opportunities he received in 2024.
Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, and Zay Jones provide a mix of competent receivers with Wilson providing the best game-breaking ability given an 11.4-yard average depth of target for 22.13% of the team’s air yards share last year. Wilson scored four times through the air on 4.4 targets per game while the others received lighter volume and returned fewer fantasy points.
Arizona is Stack 6 by points and Stack 4 by value on DraftKings while landing as Stack 6/6 on the FanDuel slate. The Murray to McBride combination makes for a strong pairing, with complementary shares of Harrison, Conner, and Wilson filling out larger stacks.
Atlanta Falcons
Game Total: 47.5 / ATL +1.0 (23.25)
Plays: 45.58% rush / 54.42% pass / 22.9 ppg / 4.5 ypa rush / 7.7 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass / 22.7 ppg / 6.60% sack / 1.05% int
Key Player: Michael Penix Jr.
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney (Q), Kyle Pitts Sr., Ray-Ray McCloud III, Tyler Allgeier (on/off), KhaDarel Hodge (very large field), Casey Washington (very large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka, Rachaad White, Cade Otton, Sterling Shepard, Tez Johnson
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Michael Penix Jr. saw action in five games last season but only truly played the final three, picking up starts in Weeks 16-18 and performing fairly well over the stretch. Penix Jr. was an aggressive deep thrower in his brief action, posting a 10.1-yard mark for intended air yards per attempt. The quarterback completed 58.0% of his passes for three touchdowns and three interceptions in his brief action, he is not overly mobile so most of the scoring for Penix Jr. will come through the air with a variety of weapons at his disposal. Tampa Bay’s defense ranked in the middle of the league last season and this game carries an appealing 47.5-point total, although we are more likely to get invested in stacks from the other side. The Atlanta quarterback ranks 13/12 on DraftKings and lands 13th by points but 8th by value on FanDuel.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson has slate-breaking talent in any given contest. The running back posted 4.8 yards per attempt on nearly 18 carries per game with another 6.0 yards per target on 4.2 targets per game last season. Robinson put the ball in for six a total of 15 times last season, with 14 of those coming in the rushing game. Against a defense that was stout in allowing just 4.1 yards per rush attempt last season, Robinson will have his work cut out for him on Sunday but he has more than enough talent to bend the slate to his will as RB2 by points on both sites.
Tyler Allgeier has poached touchdowns in this offense for several seasons, though that damage was limited to only three last season, with the running back picking up 4.7 yards per attempt on 8.1 carries per game. Allgeier is not much more than a dart throw touchdown-dependent running back.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Drake London and Darnell Mooney form a strong one-two punch at receiver with both players operating at double-digit average depth of target marks of 10.9 and 12.2 respectively last season. London hauled in nine touchdown catches to lead the team, while Mooney added another five. London also led the way with 9.3 targets per game to Mooney’s 6.6, though the latter was the stronger option for yards per target at 9.4 to London’s 8.0. London ranks inside of the top-10 for wide receiver fantasy points on both sites this week, he adds a strong value rating on FanDuel.
Tight end Kyle Pitts Sr. scored four times in the passing game, putting up a solid 8.1 yards per target on 4.4 opportunities per game while working at an 8.6-yard ADOT. Pitts is no one’s favorite at the position but he ranks inside of the top-10 at tight end on both sites for points this week, though his 21st-ranked DraftKings value rating leaves much to be desired.
Ray-Ray McCloud III is a dart throw with big play upside. McCloud scored just once on his 6.8-yard average depth of target that sees him look to create big plays after the catch. McCloud is a capable option who will be low owned despite cheap pricing, he drew 5.1 targets per game last season and returned 7.9 yards per target, though he ranks only just inside the top-50 across both sites in Week 1. The remaining pass catchers are lower-end options who are less likely to see relevant volume.
Atlanta ranks as Stack 8 by points and Stack 12 by value on both sites in Week 1. The Falcons are a reasonable option that could be a source of bring-back options in stacks that utilize the Tampa Bay offense in a primary role or they can be stacked as the primary in the hopes that a shootout will develop with the high-scoring Buccaneers leading the way.
Carolina Panthers
Game Total: 46.5 / CAR +3.5 (21.5)
Plays: 41.29% rush / 58.71% pass / 20.1 ppg / 4.6 ypa rush / 6.2 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 7.9 ypa pass / 25.6 ppg / 5.54% sack / 1.03% int
Key Player: Bryce Young
Setting: exactly one / at most two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Tetairoa McMillan, Chuba Hubbard, Xavier Legette, Rico Dowdle, Ja’Tavion Sanders, Hunter Renfrow (large field), David Moore (large field)
Opposing Setting: exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, Travis Etienne Jr., Tank Bigsby, Brenton Strange
Game Notes:
Quarterback
To say that Bryce Young has not had an impressive start to his career would be an understatement. The quarterback failed to throw for even 2,500 yards across his 14 games last season, though he did look stronger down the stretch. Young finished his second year with 15 touchdown passes and nine interceptions, giving him two-year totals of 26 touchdowns against 19 picks, an unsustainably bad ratio. Young gains upside from his rushing ability, he ran the ball in for touchdowns six times last season while gaining 5.8 yards per rush attempt across 43 carries. Over the last seven games of the 2024 season, Young had a top-10 completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) and was making far more aggressive throws. The Panthers added interesting rookie Tetairoa McMillan in the offseason, though the team did lose Jalen Coker to an injury. McMillan should help bring out the stronger attributes in Young in the long term and the quarterback can find fantasy scoring with his legs. The Jaguars are not a strong defense and this game has the potential to shoot out, which would easily push Young beyond his low-end rankings. Jacksonville ranked 32nd with 7.5 yards allowed per pass attempt and 257.4 pass yards per game in 2024, if the quarterback can find a bit of accuracy he could surprise at a cheap price, but he is in no way a priority.
Running Backs
Chuba Hubbard returns to the mix as RB16/20 on DraftKings and RB16/19 on FanDuel, and he leads the running back room for the Panthers. The running back did score 10 times on the ground and once through the air last season, gaining 4.8 yards per rush attempt on 16.7 carries per game, he does not entirely lack appeal at a fair price. Hubbard saw a significant workload that fed his production last season, that could change in 2025 with the team bringing in Rico Dowdle and Trevor Etienne, both of whom are expected to see touches in Week 1. Hubbard remains an explosive runner regardless but the bites at his workload are enough reason to expect a lower-end overall season with a few bright spots. Against a defense that allowed 4.4 yards per rush attempt and faded for run-stopping ability down the stretch, Week 1 could be one of those bright spots.
Rico Dowdle is an interesting mixer with to-be-determined volume in this rushing attack. Dowdle carried the ball 14.7 times per game and gained 4.6 yards per rush attempt in a 1,000-yard season for Dallas last year but managed to score just twice on the ground. The running back added three touchdowns through the air, he is a quality option in the passing game who posted 5.1 yards per target on 3.1 opportunities each week. Dowdle is a talented player who should see plenty of opportunities in this weak offense but he is the second fiddle to Hubbard’s lead.
Rookie Trevor Etienne should be expected to see a series or two but it should not amount to more than a few touches to get things started. Etienne gained 609 yards and scored nine times on 122 carries while adding 194 yards on 32-37 receiving out of the backfield in 10 games in his final college season in 2024.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Tetairoa McMillan slots in as WR17 by points on both sites but also as WR2 by value on DraftKings and FanDuel in Week 1. The eighth overall pick in last year’s draft, McMillan stands 6’5″ and checks in at 212 lbs with big potential. McMillan is expected to hit the ground running as the WR1 in Carolina this season, coming off of a strong college career at Arizona. The wideout gained 15.7 yards per catch and posted 1,319 yards with eight touchdowns in just 12 games last season and 1,402 yards on 90 catches with 10 touchdowns in 2023. McMillan is a premium talent whose targets will be essentially uncapped at the start of his career, at least until the return of Jalen Coker.
Xavier Legettte is the nominal second receiver in this offense, though he rates as just WR40/31 and WR42/32 across sites. Legette averaged just 5.9 yards per target and 1.32 yards per route run last season while failing to consistently beat opponents on routes. Ja’Tavion Sanders, meanwhile, rates an interesting points-per-dollar value mark at tight end on the DraftKings slate. Sanders put up 8.0 yards per target on 2.7 opportunities per game and scored once in 2024, he is TE19 by points but TE2 by value on DraftKings. Hunter Renfrow, David Moore, Tommy Tremble, and others are not more than mixers, though Moore at least posted a strong 10.8-yard average depth of target and scored three times last season.
Carolina rates as Stack 19 by points and Stack 13 by value on both sites, they are not a strong option other than for contrarian builds or cheap one-off options. Chuba Hubbard is the easy standalone option in the offense, while Young and McMillan make for an interesting skinny stack pairing.
Cincinnati Bengals
Game Total: 47.5 / CIN -5.5 (26.5)
Plays: 35.19% rush / 64.81% pass / 27.8 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.5 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass / 25.6 ppg / 7.43% sack / 0.78% int
Key Player: Joe Burrow
Setting: at least one / at least two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown, Mike Gesicki, Andrei Iosivas, Noah Fant, Samaje Perine (on/off), Jermaine Burton (large field), Tahj Brooks (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Jerry Jeudy, Jerome Ford, David Njoku, Cedric Tillman, Dylan Sampson, Harold Fannin Jr.
Game Notes:
Quarterback
The Browns are an easy target to open the season for the high octane Bengals offense. Quarterback Joe Burrow should cruise to fantasy success at a fair price on both sites, he rates as QB2 by points and QB3 by value on DraftKings and is QB2 across the board on the blue site. Burrow threw for 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns in a fantastic 2024 season, posting 7.5 yards per pass attempt and even adding two more touchdowns on the ground. The quarterback is affordable atop the best stack of the week, he is a clear priority option across the industry this week, though he is likely to be one of the more popular quarterbacks at the top of one of the more popular stacks of the week. Cleveland ranked just 26th with 7.1 yards allowed per pass attempt and 20th with 4.5 yards per attempt allowed on the ground in 2024, expectations should be high for all things Bengals on Sunday.
Running Backs
Chase Brown is the go-to back for Cincinnati, he rates a strong RB5 by points and RB2 by value on DraftKings and slots in similarly as RB5/RB3 on FanDuel. Brown gained 4.3 yards per rush attempt on steady volume in 2024, scoring seven times on the ground and adding four touchdowns in the passing game. The regular opportunities to pad DFS scoring with involvement in the sharp Bengals passing attack adds key scoring potential for Brown, he drew 4.1 targets per game last season and is a strong option for 20 touches. Brown is affordably priced by the quality but at times he can be surpassed by the high-flying offense surrounding him, value could be dictated by game script in Week 1.
Samaje Perine and Tahj Brooks do not rate as overly playable options on either site, expectations should be limited with only a few touches available while operating behind Brown. Perine posted a solid 4.6 yards per attempt but only carried the ball 1.2 times per game last year while adding 2.1 targets per game, he had one rushing and one receiving touchdown in 2024. Brooks is a rookie sixth rounder out of Texas Tech, he is expected to be active but the availability of any true workload in Week 1 remains in question.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Ja’Marr Chase dominated fantasy football across the industry in 2024 and looks set to continue his run this season. Chase had 17 receiving touchdowns on 10.3 targets per game, putting up 100.5 yards per contest and 9.8 yards per target for the season. The receiver was a rockstar for fantasy scoring most weeks last year, only failing to reach at least double-digit fantasy points in five of his 18 games. Chase went over 100 receiving yards on five separate occasions last season and had another three games of 90 or more yards with a pair of 80-yard games thrown in. He peaked at a massive slate-breaking 11-catch 284-yard three-touchdown behemoth of a game in Week 10 at Baltimore and is capable of exploding for massive fantasy scoring at a high price on any given slate. Against a pushover pass defense, Chase could feast in Week 1, he is easily WR1 for points on both sites.
Running mate Tee Higgins is no slouch in the two spot. Higgins caught 10 touchdown passes last season, posting 8.4 yards per target on 9.1 opportunities each week. Higgins posted excellent numbers despite missing five games in 2024, he was over 100 receiving yards twice and went for more than 80 in another three contests. Higgins finished the season with 911 yards on 73 catches in just 12 games, in a full season he is a strong WR2 with any week WR1 potential, including this week against a thin Cleveland pass defense that was at the bottom of the league defending the outside last season.
Mike Gesicki is a mix-and-match quality tight end at a reasonable price on either site. While he does not rate as anything special next to the standout pass-catchers on his team, the tight end is a fair addition to stacks of Bengals and is cheap enough for standalone darts. Gesicki scored twice last season while drawing 4.9 targets per game and putting up 8.0 yards per target for 665 yards on 65 catches. As with anyone not named Chase or Higgins, there is an opportunity crunch with all of the mouths to feed in this offense, there is a general lack of reliability while retaining the idea of possibility as we traverse the depth chart.
Andrei Iosivas is a downfield weapon who had an 11.2-yard average depth of target on 3.6 opportunities per game last season. Iosivas turned his limited opportunities into six touchdowns in 2024, he now has 10 NFL touchdowns on 51 catches and 86 targets over his two seasons. Iosivas is a dart throw in this offense but he should fill the same wildcard role that makes him an interesting viable scoring mixer in stacks of Bengals.
Noah Fant will see limited opportunities as a secondary tight end option, though Gesicki was dealing with a hamstring issue throughout camp that could push Fant into a few more opportunities, he is a limited option at the tight end position after a one-touchdown season in 2024.
Jermaine Burton is another deep target dart throw, he does not project well in the median but he has big play potential if his number is called at all. Burton saw 1.0 targets per game on a 21.1-yard average depth of target while playing limited snaps across 14 games in his rookie campaign. Overall, the receiver was targeted just 14 times in the offense, he caught four of those chances for 107 yards and did not score. Burton was drafted in the third round in 2024, 80th overall, which means the Bengals will eventually look for a bit of return on the investment of draft capital, the Alabama product could deliver for unexpected DFS quality as early as Week 1 with e big play or two from cheap price points.
The Bengals are Stack 1 across the board on both sites this week, the question is not if you want them but how much of them you want. The primary skill players are all worthwhile in standalone roles but the team plays best as a big stack with Burrow at the helm. The opposing Browns will be hard pressed to keep up with this offense, which could be the only factor working against a true breakout week.
Cleveland Browns
Game Total: 47.5 / CLE +5.5 (21.0)
Plays: 34.97% rush / 65.03% pass / 15.2 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 5.9 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 25.5 ppg / 5.91% sack / 2.62% int
Key Player: Joe Flacco
Setting: exactly one / at most two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Jerry Jeudy, Jerome Ford, David Njoku, Cedric Tillman, Dylan Sampson, Harold Fannin Jr.
Opposing Setting: exactly one
Opposing Group: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown, Mike Gesicki, Andrei Iosivas, Noah Fant
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Browns starting quarterback Joe Flacco debuted in 2008, when his newest running back Dylan Sampson, was not yet four years old. Flacco has had a strong career, he closed our the 2024 season with the Colts posting 1,761 yards on 248 pass attempts, throwing a dozen touchdowns and seven interceptions. Flacco has not been a regular starter in years, he is a capable multi-game fill-in option but the last time he made 16 starts in a season was 2017. The quarterback has not thrown 20 touchdown passes since 2016. Flacco ranks as QB20 by points but does climb to QB7 by value on DraftKings because of a $4,900 price tag. He is QB20/14 on the FanDuel slate and all paths to success are obscured on the blue site.
Running Backs
Jerome Ford slots in as the nominal lead back in Cleveland this season with Dylan Sampson expected to get the backup workload until the room fills out. Ford averaged an explosive 5.4 yards per rush attempt but carried the ball just 7.4 times per game last season. The running back was solid after contact, posting 2.1 yards after contact per attempt and was a top-20 option for missing tackles in his limited opportunities. Ford will face a defense that yielded 4.4 yards per rush attempt to land in the middle of the league but also faded in the second half. The running back pulls only a moderate projection on expectations of something approaching a timeshare however, he is RB25/28 and RB25/29 while the less expensive Sampson slots in as RB29/27 and RB29/21.
Dylan Sampson was taken in the fourth round of this year’s draft after the team spend a second round pick on Quinshon Judkins, who has not signed. Sampson saw significant action through the preseason and is expected to touch the ball more than a little bit on Sunday, making him a somewhat interesting wildcard in this game. The running back was a monster in his final season in college, putting up 1,491 yards and 22 touchdowns on 258 carries and adding 20 catches for 143 yards on 26 targets for Tennessee. While expectations should be tempered in a bad offense, there is a player to monitor here and he is a cheap dart throw at a touchdown in a bring-back role against stacks of opposing Bengals.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Jerry Jeudy will face an underrated Cincinnati pass defense in Week 1 and he is on a team filled with question marks. Jeudy posted a strong season in 2024 with 90 catches for 1,229 yards but he only scored four times. The lack of touchdown receptions is not entirely the receiver’s fault, he was easily the team’s go-to target but they were not frequently near opposing end zones. Jeudy saw 145 targets last year, he was a volume vacuum and little should change about that opportunity this season. The receiver rates as WR19/17 and WR19/20 across sites, he is playable but not at all a priority outside of bring-back plays against Cincinnati stacks.
David Njoku is another reasonable option for a bring-back play. The tight end posted a group-leading five touchdown catches last season while drawing steady volume with 8.8 targets per game, returning 5.2 yards for each of those targets. Njoku provides a reasonable floor as a PPR scorer and he is high ceiling with opportunities to put the ball in for six. Njoku drew a dozen red zone looks in 2024, he could see similar targeting this season as a go-to option for Flacco. Njoku is on the board in Week 1 as TE5 by points and TE4 by value on both sites.
Cedric Tillman was overhyped in certain circles this offseason because of a productive stretch of three games last season. While he is the number two option at the position in Cleveland, Tillman has been minimally productive over two seasons. After he was drafted in the third round in 2023, the receiver posted just 224 yards on 21-44 receiving and failed to put the ball in the end zone. Tillman did manage to score three touchdowns on 29-49 receiving while posting 339 yards in 2024. Last season, the receiver had eight catches for 81 yards in Week 7 against these Bengals, he posted a 99-yard two-touchdown day on seven catches against the Ravens, and followed it with another touchdown catch and 75 yards on six catches against the Chargers in Week 9. Immediately prior to that stretch of production Tillman had been held to zero targets for three straight games, he had caught three balls all season. Tillman went on to play just two games after the team’s bye, catching three of eight targets for 47 yards in Week 11 and two of four targets for 28 yards in Week 12 before missing the rest of the year. Tillman is a cheap option who will get more popular than he should be, he is not looking like a strong investment at $4,400/$4,700, though the 16th-ranked FanDuel value mark has a bit of appeal.
Harold Fannin Jr. is a third round pick out of Bowling Green who will see action in two tight end sets and a backup role. Fannin caught 117 passes for 1,555 yards and 10 touchdowns on 156 targets in his final college season, he is an interesting mixer but will probably lack the volume necessary to break through at the position.
Remaining depth options do not stand out on this slate but Jamari Thrash is the most visible with a bit of opportunity. The 2024 fifth round pick caught nine passes during the preseason to separate slightly from the pack. Thrash is not much more than a low-expectation option from the bottom of the Browns depth chart, one can typically do better.
Cleveland is stack 22 by points but Stack 9 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 22 across the board on the blue site.
Denver Broncos
Game Total: 42.5 / DEN -8.0 (25.25)
Plays: 43.57% rush / 56.43% pass / 24.0 ppg / 4.2 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.5 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass / 27.1 ppg / 6.34% sack / 2.33% int
Key Player: Bo Nix
Setting: at least one / at least two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Courtland Sutton, RJ Harvey, JK Dobbins, Marvin Mims Jr., Evan Engram, Troy Franklin, Pat Bryant (large field)
Opposing Setting: at one / at most two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Lockett, Chig Okonkwo, Elic Ayomanor, Van Jefferson Jr. (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Broncos quarterback Bo Nix quieted most doubters with a strong rookie campaign in 2024. Nix threw for 3,775 yards and 29 touchdowns against just 12 interceptions on what was thought to be a somewhat limited overall offense. The rookie completed 66.3% of his pass attempts and went over 300 yards in two games. Nix also ran for 430 yards on 92 attempts, punching the ball into the end zone four times on the ground. The rookie quarterback put up top-10 numbers in most accuracy and fantasy point categories after hitting his stride in Week 5 last season. Nix failed to throw a touchdown pass in his first three games and lost two interceptions in each of his first two starts. The quarterback did not throw for more than 250 yards in a game until Week 8 against Carolina but he quickly figured things out from there. Nix was over 250 passing yards in six different games from Weeks 8 through 18 while throwing three or more touchdown passes five times over that stretch. Against a Tennessee team that ranked ninth with just 6.4 yards allowed per pass attempt, Nix still slots in as QB6 by points on both sites, he slips to QB11 by value on DraftKings but remains highly playable at a $6,300 price tag. On FanDuel his $7,400 cost lands him at QB6 by value as well.
Running Backs
RJ Harvey and JK Dobbins are expected to operate in a tandem setup going into 2025, which is not great news for either option. Harvey is a rookie second round pick, 60th overall, out of UCF. The running back played 12 games in his final college season, putting up 22 touchdowns and gaining 1,577 yards on 232 carries. Harvey added another three scores in the passing game where he turned 29 targets into 20 catches for 287 more yards. Harvey is only 5’8″ but he checks in at 205lbs of solid burst and he was involved in both the running and passing game during the preseason. Harvey is RB20/21 and RB20/18 across sites, playable but a non-priority.
Dobbins is RB23/26 and RB22/24, he rates similarly to his backfield partner. While one could argue that his nine touchdowns in 2024 represents something of a breakout season in his fourth year, Dobbins failed to gain 1,000 yards on his 195 carries, though he did crest that mark in yards from scrimmage with 1,058. Dobbins did not score on his limited work in the passing game and those opportunities could swing toward the rookie with Dobbins utilized more in a blocking and short yardage role. Tennessee should have an improved defense this season and they were already successful against the run, this does not look like a strong option given the split volume with additional factors working against productivity.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Courtland Sutton emerged in a big way in 2024. The wide receiver posted 8.0 yards per target on 7.9 looks per game, scoring eight times in the process. Sutton operated on a tremendous 13.2-yard average depth of target, giving Bo Nix something reliable to shoot for down the field. The tandem came together for 100 yards, connecting eight times in Week 8 of last season. Sutton went over 100 yards the following week and again in Week 13 while posting another two games at 97 and 98 yards and five of his eight touchdowns down the stretch. Sutton is a strong option as a deep threat with strong volume and first-read opportunity but he could draw steady coverage from a quality pass defense this week. Regardless, the receiver rates as WR11/10 on DraftKings and WR10/7 on FanDuel and looks like a quality value play across the industry.
Marvin Mims Jr. is a cheap option for upside with a bit of explosive big play ability. Mims gained 9.7 yards per target on 3.1 opportunities per game last year, scoring six touchdowns through the air. The receiver is entering his third year after he was drafted in the second round in 2023, he gained just 503 yards on 39-52 receiving last year, giving him something to improve in a make-or-break season after taking his touchdown output from just one as a rookie to six last season.
Troy Franklin was drafted in the fourth round in 2024, he caught just 28 of his 53 targets as a rookie, scoring twice along the way. Franklin has one trick up his sleeve for DFS quality, a significant 13.0-yard average depth of target that rivals Sutton’s mark at a far lower price, but for far fewer chances to deliver. Franklin is a potential boom-or-bust play on a fairly popular team, he is an interesting option though he rates only in the lower-middle part of the board. The receiver is far more valuable in stacks of Broncos than as a standalone option.
Evan Engram joins the Broncos after a limited final season in Jacksonville. Engram spent three seasons with the Jaguars, peaking in 2023 with 963 yards and four touchdowns. In 2024 the tight end played in just nine games, scoring just once and catching 47 of 64 targets for 365 yards, a minimalistic 5.7 yards per target. Engram is a mix-and-match option at the position, he ranks as TE6/14 on DraftKings and TE7/8 on FanDuel.
Remaining options are, at best, mixers for DFS quality who are best deployed in only the largest of large field GPP contests.
The Broncos rate as Stack 13 by points and Stack 22 by value on DraftKings but they hop to Stack 12 by points and Stack 7 by value on the FanDuel slate where the entire team is cheap. Nix with Sutton and either Mims or Franklin as a lottery ticket could pay off more than Nix-Sutton-Engram, though any combination is easy to reach.
Detroit Lions
Game Total: 47.5 / DET +2.5 (22.5)
Plays: 46.96% rush / 53.04% pass / 33.1 ppg / 4.8 ypa rush / 8.5 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.0 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 20.0 ppg / 7.42% sack / 2.90% int
Key Player: Jared Goff
Setting: at least one / at least two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Sam LaPorta, Isaac TeSlaa, Brock Wright (large field), Kalif Raymond (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Josh Jacobs, Matthew Golden, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed (Q), Tucker Kraft, Dontayvion Wicks (Q), Emanuel Wilson (on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Jared Goff had his third straight season of about 4,500 yards passing in 2024, putting up 4,629 on 539 pass attempts while completing a career-high 72.4% of his passes. Goff worked at just 6.3 intended air yards per attempt and 4.4 air yards per attempt, though the team gained 8.60 yards per pass attempt, capitalizing on their quality after the catch. Goff threw 37 touchdowns against just 12 interceptions last season, beating his previous career best by five touchdown passes and his 2023 mark by seven. In addition to racking up yardage, Goff was highly rated across accuracy categories, he is an efficient high-value passer with fantastic weapons at his disposal at every skill position. The quarterback should maintain his high level of play throughout 2025, the Green Bay defense defended the pass well in 2024 but they are expected to see a downturn with a somewhat limited secondary. Goff and his excellent receivers should have little difficulty delivering on an implied total that feels low at 22.5 points, despite their amusing underdog status on the Vegas board.
Running Backs
Jahymr Gibbs and David Montgomery formed the best rushing tandem in football last season. Gibbs carried the ball 14.7 times per game to Montgomery’s 13.2 carries, with the younger running back gaining a massive 5.6 yards per rush attempt to the veteran’s still good 4.2. Gibbs scored 16 times on rushing plays and added four touchdown catches, giving him 20 total for the season and vaulting him to the upper echelons of running back rankings. Montgomery answered the ground production with a dozen rushing touchdowns of his own, but Gibbs gains true separation with Montgomery lacking significant work in the passing game. The running back did see 2.7 targets per game but he failed to score on a catch in 2024 or in 2023. Both backs are in play on a heavy Detroit stacking weekend, Gibbs leads the way as RB4 by points on both sites, he is in the mid-teens for value at his heavy sticker. Montgomery comes at a relative discount but also slips to RB21/23 and RB21/25 across sites while maintaining significant touchdown potential given the still-significant workload when the team gets close to the opposing end zone.
It is unlikely that remaining backs will see more than a couple of touches.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Amon-Ra St. Brown leads a bountiful receiving group in Detroit, this team is ideal for DFS stacking purposes. St. Brown had 12 touchdown catches on a 7.7-yard average depth of target in 2024. The receiver drew 8.3 targets per game, seeing steady action throughout the season. St. Brown’s touchdown total was his second year in a row with double-digit scoring and third-straight with more than 1,110 yards receiving, though his 10 touchdowns last season came with 1,515 yards on 119 catches while he gained just 1,263 on 115 catches in 17 games last season. St. Brown is a tremendous first read top wide receiver, he ranks as WR6 by points on DraftKings and WR7 on FanDuel.
Jameson Williams is a major deep threat, operating at an 11.2-yard average depth of target that creates problems for opposing defenses trying to cover St. Brown’s 7.7-yard ADOT. Williams broke through with seven touchdowns and his first 1,000-yard season on 58-91 receiving last season. The receiver got into a career-high 15 games last year, he was limited to 12 in 2023 and put up just 354 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 24 catches, and he played just six games and scored once as a rookie. It may feel like Williams has been around forever, but the player is just 24 years old and heading into his fourth year with a team that just picked up his fifth-year option. The former first round pick has more to give than the already strong numbers we saw last year, Williams has, perhaps, more big play ability than anyone else on the Lions.
Sam LaPorta is a capable tight end who slots in at a highly playable TE4/9 on DraftKings and TE4/5 on FanDuel. His seven touchdowns equal the output of Williams in 2024, though they came on a 7.0-yard average depth of target and 8.7 yards per target for the season. The tight end was somewhat limited through the first half of last season but his snap share returned to full form down the stretch and the player responded with five touchdowns from Weeks 13 through the Divisional Round. LaPorta only went over 100 yards once last season and his 726 yards fell short of the 889 he posted as a rookie in 2023. In fact, LaPorta dipped across the board year-over-year, he caught just 60 of 83 targets last season after hauling in 86 of 120 opportunities in 2023. and his touchdown total fell from 10 to seven. Still, there is plenty of quality in play for what could easily be the fourth or fifth-most owned player from this stack.
Isaac TeSlaa is likely to struggle to find touches early in his career in Detroit, the team simply has too many premium options. TeSlaa and Kalif Raymond will take opportunities where they come down the depth chart but there are at least five options ahead of them in any circumstance. TeSlaa is a 6’4″ 214lbs rookie out of Arkansas, who was drafted in the third round this year. The receiver had limited output in college, putting up just 545 yards on 28-36 receiving over 12 games last year and 351 yards on 34-67 receiving the year before with five total touchdowns across the two seasons. While he is a big-bodied athletic receiver, TeSlaa seemed like a bit of a reach in the third round but the Lions seem like the perfect team to make something of the raw skill set.
Kalif Raymond draws the infrequent look down the field, he put up two touchdowns and drew an 8.0-yard average depth of target last season but is mostly overshadowed in this offense barring catastrophe.
The Lions rate as Stack 3 by points on both DraftKings and FanDuel but their aggressive price points are reflected in their 19th and 18th value ratings across the sites. Jared Goff +2 stacks are highly appealing with premium scoring options at two different running back prices as well as a spectrum of pass-catching options across positions. This is a high priority offense, as usual, but they are bound to be popular.
Green Bay Packers
Game Total: 47.5 / GB -2.5 (25.0)
Plays: 50.69% rush / 49.31% pass / 26.1 ppg / 4.7 ypa rush / 8.1 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.5 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass / 21.5 ppg / 5.46% sack / 2.50% int
Key Player: Jordan Love
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Josh Jacobs, Matthew Golden, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed (Q), Tucker Kraft, Dontayvion Wicks (Q), Emanuel Wilson (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Sam LaPorta, Isaac TeSlaa
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Jordan Love enters Week 1 as something of a question mark. Love ranks as QB10 by points but QB17 by value on DraftKings and slots in as QB9/15 on the FanDuel slate. In 2024, the quarterback threw for 225 yards per game with 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, averaging 8.0 yards per pass attempt and 8.7 intended air yards per attempt in an aggressive downfield passing attack. Love will be playing with a new toy in 2025, namely, receiver Matthew Golden. The rest of the wide receiver room is somewhat in flux after solid Romeo Doubs. The primary concern for Packers receivers is the status of Jayden Reed, who is questionable on Sunday in his attempt to play through a Jones Fracture. After a big season in his third year in the league and first full season at the helm of the Packers in 2023, Love regressed badly across the statistical board in his 15 games last year. The quarterback went from 4,159 yards and 32 touchdown passes with 7.2 yards per attempt to 3,389 yards with 25 touchdown passes, though his YPA did leap to 8.0. Love was in the middle of the pack in weekly fantasy scoring at the position but he posted concerning accuracy marks across the board and the Packers adopted a more evenly balanced offense. In a matchup against a newly healthy Detroit defense, Love will have his work cut out to deliver quality, though a shootout of a game environment could help with that challenge.
Running Backs
Veteran back Josh Jacobs leads the way for Green Bay once again in 2025. Jacobs carried the ball 17.7 times per game and saw 2.5 targets per week throughout last season, totaling 15 rushing touchdowns and a single receiving score. With 4.4 yards per rush attempt, the workhorse rusher posted a 1,329-yard season across a full 17 games, a nice recovery from playing just 13 games and posting 805 yards with six touchdowns his final year with in Las Vegas. Jacobs remains a capable DFS option with fairly significant scoring potential, he ranks as RB9 by points and RB7 by value on DraftKings and RB9/13 on the FanDuel slate.
Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks are not strong options for volume barring the unforeseen.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Matthew Golden was the 23rd overall selection in the draft this year and he should step directly into a significant Week 1 workload with several ailing options in the Packers receivers room. Golden is a 5’11” 191lbs with a measured 4.29 40-time that should allow him to blow past more plodding defenders. Golden has the physical tools to justify his draft selection but his college numbers were somewhat underwhelming, he posted just 987 yards on 58 catches across 16 games last season, scoring nine times in his standout campaign among three college years. Golden looks to be more of a speed burner than a true top end receiver out of the shell, but we could see him make immediate gains playing in an NFL offense as a featured piece.
Romeo Doubs is the returning asset for Love at the receiver position. Doubs scored four times last year, turning his group-leading 12.3-yard average depth of target into production with 8.3 yards per target on 5.5 opportunities per game. Doubs was only mediocre for fantasy production throughout 2024 but he lead the team in first read and route running categories and was tremendous in gaining separation on his routes. Doubs has a bit of sleeper upside as a bring-back option in Detroit stacks and he is an integral part of stacking Packers going in the other direction. The receiver could beat his WR41/37 and WR38/36 rankings handily in Week 1.
No wide receiver has successfully played through a Jones fracture, it seems unlikely that Jayden Reed will be the first, and less likely that we will want him as a necessary piece for DFS in Week 1.
Tucker Kraft is a solid mixer of a tight end and a potentially sneaky way into shares of the Green Bay offense either in stacks, as a bring-back play, or as a standalone at a light position. Kraft scored seven times on 4.1 targets per game last season, posting 10.1 yards per target. Dontayvion Wicks and Savion Williams are depth pieces, though Wicks will climb the board somewhat if he is active and Reed is not. The talented deep threat scored five times on a 21.32% air yards share that put him at a 10.7-yard average depth of target for the season, totaling 415 yards on 39-76 receiving. Malik Heath is an emergency depth option if multiple Packers receivers are out on Sunday.
Green Bay is a low-end option as Stack 16 by points and Stack 18 by value on DraftKings and Stack 14/15 on the FanDuel slate. The team is potentially a better source of bring-back value in stacks of Lions or as standalone plays in any given lineup. While building around Love in Week 1 may not be the approach, we can access the passing game with an underappreciated Doubs, a lower-owned Kraft, or potentially the rookie burner. Jacobs works as a standalone running back, given the potential for 20 touches.
Houston Texans
Game Total: 42.5 / HOU +3.0 (19.75)
Plays: 41.69% rush / 58.34% pass / 22.0 ppg / 4.5 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.9 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass / 22.3 ppg / 8.23% sack / 2.33% int
Key Player: CJ Stroud
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Nico Collins, Jaydin Higgins, Nick Chubb, Dameon Pierce, Dalton Schultz, Xavier Hutchinson, Jaylin Noel (large field), Justin Watson (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Tyler Higbee, Tutu Atwell, Jordan Whittington
Game Notes:
Quarterback
CJ Stroud was a massive disappointment to those foolish enough to rely on him in fantasy football last year (not at all bitter). Stroud followed up a breakout rookie campaign in which he threw for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns against just five interceptions over 15 games with a limited 3,727 yards, 20 touchdown passes, and 12 interceptions. The production dip resulted in Stroud landing as a barely playable option for any format of fantasy football, though at least part of the underperformance can be pinned on disastrous injury luck through what should have been a strong receiving room. Stroud will have lead option Nico Collins back this season with rookie Jayden Higgins opening up as the number two option as Christian Kirk deals with an injury. If he can regain any form against a middle of the road – but popular this week – Rams defense, Stroud could stand out with a big day connecting with Collins. Stroud cracks the list of “interesting” options as QB7 on both sites but he dips to QB16 by value on DraftKings and QB10 by value on FanDuel, playable but not priority rankings.
Running Backs
The split backfield in Houston is going to be a mess until roles become more established or fate takes over. Nick Chubb is the nominal lead option with Joe Mixon out on IR with rumors of not returning even when eligible. Chubb looked bad last season, putting up just 3.3 yards per rush attempt on 12.8 carries per game and scoring three times. The back gained just 1.6 yards after contact per attempt and is a limited participant in the passing game. Chubb will be leading the way into a Rams rush defense that was below average last season but may have been bolstered somewhat year-over-year, he is not a good option as RB30/30 and RB30/31.
Dameon Pierce could immediately take carries from Chubb with a quality day. Pierce carried the ball just 40 times in 11 games last season but he posted an absurd 7.3 yards per rush attempt, gaining 293 yards and scoring twice in the limited action. The running back added a pair of catches for two yards and that was his year. Pierce is a clearly talented rusher who warrants an opportunity, if he seems more than the expected workload he could add to fantasy scoring as an inexpensive low-owned value play.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Nico Collins is a tremendous receiver who ranks as WR3 by fantasy points on both sites. With a $7,400 DraftKings price tag, Collins slides to WR13 by value while remaining WR5 for value on the FanDuel slate at just $7,900. Collins gained 10.2 yards per target on a team-leading 8.3 looks per game last season, and he scored seven times in the passing game. His 1,006 yards marked the second straight season that he went over the four-digit mark in receiving yards after he posted 1,297 on 80-109 receiving in 15 games in 2023. Collins caught 68 of 99 targets in just 12 games last year, if he manages to stay on the field all season he could be a major source of fantasy points as the focal point of this entire offense.
Jayden Higgins was drafted in the early second round, 34th overall, to fill out the badly damaged receiver corps in Houston. Higgins is a 6’4″ 215lbs receiver who posted 8.6 yards per target over his final season at Iowa State, totaling 1,183 yards and scoring nine times in 13 games. Higgins fits the archetype of a big-bodied receiver who can get up to get the ball, he is less threatening with a 4.47-second 40-time but he is a capable route runner who could find an early connection with Stroud after a middling preseason.
Jaylin Noel could see a spike in opportunities in the absence of Christian Kirk, he does not currently project well but could gain ground before Sunday with missing pieces, particularly in the slot. Noel was drafted in the third round, 79th overall, he stands 5’11” and checks in at 201lbs and also played at Iowa State where he was a primary return man, a role he should also take on this weekend for the Texans. Noel had 1,194 yards and eight touchdowns in 14 college games last season.
Dalton Schultz is a mixer at the tight end position, he ranks as just TE17/18 and TE18/18 across sites in Week 1. Schultz scored just twice last season, despite seeing 5.0 targets per game on an 8.1-yard average depth of target. The season was a disappointment for the tight end who had been a fixture in the end zone over the past few seasons. Schultz posted eight touchdown catches in 2021 and another five in 2022 during his last season in Dallas, with five coming on 59-88 receiving in his first Houston season, he dipped to just 532 yards on 53-85 receiving despite playing a full 17-game season for the first time in three years. Schultz is on the bubble of playability at best.
The Texans rate as just Stack 15/23 on the DraftKings slate, they have slightly more appeal on FanDuel where cheap pricing has them rated as Stack 15 by points but Stack 9 by value. Stroud and the primary pass-catchers are the clear direction, with Pierce operating as a bit of a wildcard, but this is a low-priority option across sites.
Indianapolis Colts
Game Total: 46.5 / IND -1.0 (23.75)
Plays: 47.65% rush / 52.35% pass / 22.2 ppg / 4.7 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass / 21.4 ppg / 5.77% sack / 1.75% int
Key Player: Daniel Jones
Setting: at most two
Team Group: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, Adonai Mitchell, Tyler Warren
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Ollie Gordon II, Malik Washington, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Game Notes:
Quarterback
As usual, quarterback Daniel Jones represents fantasy fool’s gold for the down and desperate. Jones threw just eight touchdown passes against seven interceptions over his final season in New York, totaling 2,070 yards in 10 games. The quarterback managed a mere 6.1 yards per pass attempt with 3.8 air yards and 7.2 intended air yards per attempt. Jones can run with the football but his production in that arena was limited as well, posting 4.0 yards per attempt on 6.7 attempts per game, with just two touchdowns in more than half a season. The inept quarterback does not rate well in any advanced throwing metrics, though he does get a decent matchup in Week 1 and has undeniably better weapons in Indianapolis. Jones is the starter by default in this offense, he ranks as QB19 by fantasy points on both sites but a cheap DraftKings price has him rated as QB8 by value on the site. This is not a trustworthy option but it is a GPP dart throw for large field contests.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor should dominate touches at the running back position once again this season. Taylor gained 4.7 yards per rush attempt on a whopping 21.6 carries per game last year, adding another 2.2 potential touches in the passing attack. He scored 12 times, with 11 of his touchdowns coming in the rush game. Taylor ranks as RB8/8 on DraftKings and RB7/7 on the FanDuel slate, he is easily in play on either site and is a strong way to reach the Colts offense without having to touch Daniel Jones. Taylor is only a minor part of the passing game, his value to pad stacks of Colts would be largely situational and touchdown-dependent.
DJ Giddens saw a fair amount of action in the preseason and could see the number two role in this offense with an ailing Tyler Goodson ahead of him on the depth chart. Giddens is a fifth round pick, 151st overall, who should be a more physical runner in the NFL. The running back put up 1,343 yards on 205 carries with seven touchdowns and added 21 catches for 258 yards and a score in 12 games for Kansas State last year with similar numbers the season before. With a role limited by one of the league’s true bell cow running backs, Giddens is more a name to file away than a likely contributor on Sunday.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Michael Pittman Jr. dipped down draft boards in season-long leagues after posting just three touchdowns despite steady volume in 2024. With messy quarterback play only so much can be blamed on the receiving group, but not much about that scenario is going to change with Jones at the wheel in 2025. Pittman drew 6.9 targets per game and turned them into 7.3 yards per target and 1.82 yards per route run on his 11.0-yard ADOT, he is a capable downfield receiver who lacks someone to reliably deliver the ball. Pittman also dealt with nagging injuries throughout the season, limiting his separation and route-winning rates. If we assume full health and even marginally better quarterback play the receiver could see a nice return to form, he had two 1,000-yard seasons in his first four years in the league.
Josh Downs posted several big performances last season bur finished with only five touchdown receptions on 7.6 targets per game. Downs sees plenty of volume but, like Pittman, suffers from the lack of quality at the quarterback position. The receiver delivered 7.5 yards per target while operating on shorter routes at a 6.9-yard ADOT last season. Downs remains an effective safety valve who could see additional action given the frantic nature of Jones’ decision making.
Rookie Tyler Warren slots in as an interesting tight end option that ranks as TE8 by fantasy points in his debut. Warren was drafted in the first round, number 14 overall this year, and should be the player to finally put an end to the rotation of tight ends this team has recently deployed, though most of those options linger on the roster. The 6’5″ 256lbs Penn State product had eight touchdowns and 1,233 yards on 104 catches in his final college season, he could be another in a recent run of standout first year tight ends in the NFL.
Alec Pierce is always in play when rostering Colts or when needing a cheap stick of dynamite to add a bit of explosive potential to a lineup that needs value. At $4,400/$5,100 he is not sporting go-to rankings down the board, but Pierce sees a few deep shots per game and infrequently delivers on them. The receiver drew 4.3 opportunities each week on a ridiculous 21.5-yard average depth of target in 2024, turning the chances into seven touchdown catches. Pierce is in no way a reliable option and he will be competing more than ever for those opportunities, but he has an undeniable ceiling as a true deep threat whose number does get called in the offense.
Adonai Mitchell also worked deep down the field in 2024, putting up a 14.1-yard average depth of target in limited action, but he failed to score or become interesting for DFS purposes.
The Colts rank as Stack 17/14 and Stack 17/20 across sites, they are not an appealing option outside of standalone shares of Jonathan Taylor, who can be tremendous, and wing-and-a-prayer shares of Daniel Jones and the receiving group. The options among the pass catchers, including Pittman, Warren, Downs, and Pierce are, perhaps, best deployed as bring-back plays in Miami stacks or as standalone players across other lineups.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Game Total: 46.5 / JAC -3.5 (25.0)
Plays: 41.73% rush / 58.27% pass / 18.8 ppg / 4.2 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass
oppDEF: 5.2 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass / 31.4 ppg / 5.69% sack / 1.70% int
Key Player: Trevor Lawrence
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, Travis Etienne Jr., Brenton Strange, Dyami Brown, Tank Bigsby (on/off), Bhayshul Tuten (on/off), Parker Washington (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Tetairoa McMillan, Chuba Hubbard, Xavier Legette, Rico Dowdle, Ja’Tavion Sanders
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence has yet to grow into the quarterback that the Jaguars drafted with the first overall pick in 2021. Lawrence was not awful in his first few seasons, he cracked the 4,000 yard mark in 2022 and again in 2023, throwing 25 touchdowns against just eight interceptions in ’22 with 21 to 14 picks in 2023. The wheels came off somewhat during an ugly 2024 campaign that began with bright expectations for growth. Despite the emergence of true number one receiver Brian Thomas Jr., Lawrence managed a mere 2,045 yards and 11 touchdown passes against seven interceptions in his 10 games. Lawrence suffered multiple injuries to keep him out of action, taking a shoulder injury ahead of a concussion. In addition to the dip in passing output, Lawrence also saw his previous legitimate but unspectacular rushing numbers mostly evaporate. The quarterback seems primed for a bounce-back campaign in 2025 with Thomas firmly established as a top threat and the addition of rookie standout Travis Hunter, who will begin the season as the team’s number two wide receiver while attempting to play both ways in certain sets. The pairing should do well if the team can get anything going among several reasonable options on the ground, they will also have the support of a potentially emergent tight end in Brenton Strange who could be a sharp third man in any Lawrence +2 stack. With better health, more weapons, and a revamped attack, Lawrence could be primed for a breakout 2025, it would be best to be ahead of the curve on a quarterback who enters Week 1 as QB4 by points and QB1 by value on both NFL DFS sites.
Running Backs
It would be somewhat unfair to say that Travis Etienne Jr.’s career has been disappointing over his first three seasons. Etienne got off to a reasonable start with two 1,000-yard seasons, including 1,125 yards on 220 attempts as a rookie and 1,008 yards with 11 rushing touchdowns in his second season. He added another 316 yards on 35-45 receiving in 2022 and 476 yards with a touchdown on 58-73 receiving in 2023. The huge dip to just 558 yards and two touchdowns on 150 carries in the rushing game and an empty 254 yards on 39-52 receiving in the passing game in 2024 could prove to be a statistical blip for a player who gained more than 1,400 yards from scrimmage in each of his first two NFL seasons. Etienne dealt with multiple injuries last season but his numbers were limited even when healthy, now as part of a clear group his opportunities for success could be limited, he is RB22/22 and RB23/28 across sites in Week 1.
Etienne will be pushed to deliver quality this season, Tank Bigsby is whole and a threat for short yardage opportunities and more, he had a 4.6 yard per rush attempt average last season while punching the ball in seven times on the ground. Bigsby is a bruising rusher who does not factor into the pass game, clear roles could emerge early in this offense and they could lead to Bigsby ending drives with short touchdowns while Etienne does yeoman’s work up and down the field.
Bhayshul Tuten also looms as an option, he was drafted in the fourth round, 104th overall, and will serve primarily as a third back in the offense with the ability to fill in on early downs but more limited in pass protection.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Brian Thomas Jr. scored 10 times in the somewhat limited Jaguars’ passing attack in 2024, leading the team by a wide margin. The receiver was outstanding, drawing 7.8 targets per game with increasing volume as the season continued. The 6’2″ first rounder out of LSU more than met expectations with 1,282 receiving yards, catching 87 of 133 targets for 9.6 yards per target. Thomas is a lurking fantasy monster, he posted four games of over 100 yards in his rookie season and should only improve with better play at the quarterback position. Lawrence and Thomas are a must-pair option when considering stacks of Jaguars on either site, the receiver is WR2 by points and WR1 by value on DraftKings and WR2/3 on FanDuel in Week 1.
Travis Hunter was drafted second overall this season out of Colorado. The dynamic two-way player will primarily operate as a receiver early in his career, but the team has confirmed that they fully plan on deploying Hunter at cornerback as early as Week 1. DFS owners are keyed in on the potential production in the passing game but including a Hunter one-off when utilizing the Jaguars DST option in a strong matchup is also a way to double-dip points, should he happen to take an interception to the house. In his standout final college season, Hunter caught 96 of 125 targets, posting 1,258 yards and scoring 15 times through the air, he added one rushing touchdown but only carried the ball twice all season. Hunter is a very interesting mix-in option in stacks of Jaguars with a bit of bent appeal as a standalone play as well.
Brenton Strange draws a solid projection that has him landing as TE10 by points but TE1 by value on the DraftKings slate where one can add him for just $3,300. On FanDuel, against a $5,000 price, Strange is TE10 across the board. Strange will be the team’s go-to starter this season with Evan Engram departing for Denver. Strange saw limited action last year, playing fewer than half of the snaps in the majority of the team’s games. The tight end scored twice in the passing game and was able to deliver 7.8 yards per target and 1.39 yards per route run on the season, OK but not outstanding numbers. Strange should see far more opportunities this season, though he remains at best fourth in the pecking order when it comes to targeting and first read opportunities. Strange is an affordable piece of padding in stacks of Jaguars and he could deliver touchdown-dependent value at the cheap DraftKings price in other lineups.
Dyami Brown and Parker Washington are depth darts that barely warrant mentioning, they should see a few snaps each but only limited targeting with their 2.5 and 3.0 targets per game from last season looking like potential caps. Washington scored three times in 2024, Brown was limited to just one touchdown. Tim Patrick fills out the room from even further down the depth chart.
The Jaguars are a strong option in Week 1, the team rates as Stack 10 by points but Stack 2 by value on DraftKings and they are Stack 9 by points and Stack 3 by value on FanDuel against a low-end Carolina defense. Lawrence +2 stacks should be viable in this setup, with Thomas and Hunter leading the way but with Etienne and Strange providing positional and salary relief while adding to the potential passing game output to correlate with Lawrence on a big day.
Las Vegas Raiders
Game Total: 44.5 / LV +2.5 (21.0)
Plays: 35.68% rush / 64.32% pass / 18.2ppg / 3.6 ypa rush / 6.5 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 24.5 ppg / 4.99% sack / 1.31% int
Key Player: Geno Smith
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, Ashton Jeanty, Dont’e Thornton, Tre Tucker, Jack Bech (large field), Raheem Mostert (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Stefon Diggs, TreVeyon Henderson, Rhamondre Stevenson (on/off), DeMario Douglas, Hunter Harvey, Kayshon Boutte, Austin Hooper (large field), Kyle Williams (large field), Mack Hollins (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Geno Smith rides into Las Vegas to helm a new look Raiders offense that features standout rookie Ashton Jeanty and excellent sophomore tight end Brock Bowers, both of whom should be significant fantasy contributors this season. Bowers should have little trouble delivering quality with an accurate but unspectacular passer like Smith in town, and Jeanty will create his own points while also providing connection via involvement in the passing game. The Raiders have another quality receiver in Jakobi Meyers, who has been somewhat underrated in fantasy circles in recent years and the room fills out with hot season-long waiver wire acquisition Dont’e Thornton and Tre Tucker, giving Smith several solid weapons in the desert. The quarterback threw 34.0 passes per game last season, posting a 70.0% completion rate and throwing 21 touchdowns against 15 interceptions. Smith is not a major deep ball thrower, he had just a 6.8-yard intended air yards per attempt and 4.2 air yards per attempt last season, finishing the year at 7.5 yards per pass attempt. The quarterback has been adequate but not great over the past few seasons as Seattle’s starter, he finished in the middle of the league in positional fantasy points per game in 2024. His 30 touchdowns and 4,282 yards in 2022 are still the highwater mark, though the accuracy that was on display last season was impressive. Against a middling Patriots defense that does not generate significant pressure, and playing behind a better offensive line than last year’s Seattle team offered, Smith could see a bit of a return to quality, when he has time to throw he is a highly accurate and competitive passer.
Running Backs
Ashton Jeanty begins his NFL DFS career as a Week 1 standout, ranking as RB3/3 on DraftKings and RB3/1 on FanDuel, where he costs just $6,400. Jeanty is the latest running back to justify an early first round selection, going sixth overall in this year’s draft. The running back is a 5’8″ 211lbs Boise State product who put up a ridiculous 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns on 374 attempts with another 138 yards and a touchdown coming on 23-35 receiving during his final year in college. While those eye-popping numbers will not be replicated in the NFL, Jeanty should be a premium fantasy scoring option right out of the shell, he will be the featured running back for Las Vegas and expectations for production are high.
Raheem Mostert will provide backup work and spell the rookie in certain situations, the running back is a low-quality pass catcher out of the backfield but could see an expanded role in that arena after he gained just 3.3 yards per rush attempt in a down season during his final year in Miami. Mostert is an afterthought in Week 1 and he will see competition from Zamir White on the depth chart.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Brock Bowers is the go-to option among Raiders pass-catchers this season. The tight end broke through in 2024 with 9.0 targets per game and 7.8 yards per target, while garnering a 24.06% air yards share. Bowers is a weapon at the position and he should only get better in year two, which would almost certainly push his touchdown total up from the mere five that he scored in an otherwise spectacular year. Bowers finished his rookie campaign with 1,194 yards on 112-153 receiving with two 100+-yard games to his credit. Bowers is a no-brainer TE1 by points on both sites, he is TE5 by value on DraftKings and TE3 by value on FanDuel and he should see little trouble getting into the mix against a mid-board defense. The main concern with Bowers could be simple popularity, which is easy enough to overcome.
Jakobi Meyers gives Geno Smith a reliable presence at wide receiver. Meyers drew 8.6 targets per game on a 9.6-yard ADOT to lead the way with a 33.39% air yards share but that amounted to just four touchdowns given weak quarterback play. With a far more polished passer leading the way, Meyers could step up somewhat in quality this season. The receiver delivered 8.0 yards per target in 2024 and took a step forward in the absence of Davante Adams in the second half. Meyers is a volume-based opportunity play but he could draw stout coverage as the primary threat at the position this season. He is in the mix for shares at WR21/9 and WR21/25 but is not a priority when compared to Bowers and Jeanty.
Dont’e Thornton Jr. saw a spike in name recognition after he was named a starter earlier in the week. The rookie out of Tennessee stands at 6’5″ 205 lbs and comes with fourth round draft capital, he should see a fair opportunity alongside Meyers and Tre Tucker. The receiver did not have an illustrious college career, however, posting just 661 yards and six touchdowns on 26 catches over only 34 targets in 13 games in his final season, he is a weapon in and around the end zone, less so up and down the field.
Tre Tucker returned 6.7 yards per target on 4.8 targets per game last season, scoring three times in the process, he is not much more than a mix-and-match receiver best deployed within Las Vegas stacks, though his impressive 12.7-yard average depth of target does keep him on the board for big play potential.
The Raiders are an interesting option this week, with steady Smith driving they bounce to Stack 9 by points and Stack 5 by value on DraftKings and Stack 10 by points and Stack 4 by value on FanDuel. The team can be broken up for parts as well, all of the skill players up top warrant individual consideration in other lineups but Smith+2 stacks are viable, with the focus on Bowers, Jeanty, and Meyers plus the two more wildcard touchdown-dependent options.
Los Angeles Rams
Game Total: 42.5 / LAR -3.0 (22.75)
Plays: 42.46% rush / 57.54% pass / 21.9 ppg / 4.0 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.2 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 21.4 ppg / 8.40% sack / 3.76% int
Key Player: Matthew Stafford
Setting: at least one / at least two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Kyren Williams, Tyler Higbee, Tutu Atwell, Jordan Whittington, Blake Corum (on/off), Terrance Ferguson (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Nico Collins, Jaydin Higgins, Nick Chubb, Dameon Pierce, Dalton Schultz, Xavier Hutchinson
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford is an aging quarterback with a lingering back problem and dwindling output but his production could be bolstered by solid skill players at every key position again in 2025. The quarterback slots in as just QB14/21 and QB14/13, though his stack rates quite a bit better for overall fantasy points given the high-scoring nature of Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, and newcomer Davante Adams, who should provide a steady replacement for Cooper Kupp with major week-to-week scoring potential. Stafford threw 20 touchdowns against eight interceptions while gaining 7.3 yards per pass attempt on 7.1 intended air yards per attempt last season. The quarterback was a non-factor on the ground, if he is running with the ball something has likely gone wrong. The quarterback has declined in three straight seasons after a 4,886-yard 41-touchdown campaign to begin his Los Angeles run in 2021. Stafford is always in play, he can still make the big throws as-needed, and he has major weapons at his disposal, but he will be facing a challenging pass defense that rated number two in football with 6.2 yards allowed per pass attempt last year. Houston garnered a 22.8% pressure rate and came away with 49 sacks and 19 interceptions on the season, strong 8.4% sack and 3.76% interception rates.
Running Backs
Kyren Williams is the bell cow running back in Los Angeles, he carried the ball 19.8 times per game last season and added another 2.5 potential touches each week in the passing game, though his production in that area was limited two 4.6 yards per target and he scored only twice in the air. Williams gained just 4.1 yards per rush attempt, a fine but not spectacular mark, he makes up for a slight lack of quality with sheer volume, the running back scored 14 times on the ground last season and is a significant source of touchdown potential within this offense. Williams is not an ideal pairing in stacks, given the mixed production for passing, he is best utilized in a standalone grinder running back role but he does rate as RB11/15 on DraftKings and RB11/11 on FanDuel in Week 1.
Blake Corum will see limited work in a backup role ahead of Jarquez Hunter, neither is a viable option without damage above them on the depth chart.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Puka Nacua is a volume monster, he drew 9.6 targets per game in a pass-happy offense while playing alongside Cooper Kupp (at times) during the year. Nacua managed just three touchdowns in a letdown of a second season for those of us who felt fortunate on draft day, keeping him for a late round pick from the season before. Nacua had a gigantic breakout in 2023, putting up 1,486 yards on 105 catches over 160 targets and scoring six touchdowns, he dipped to just 990 yards and the three scores but that came across only 106 targets in a limited 11 games. With a return to health in the same role in this offense, there is little reason to doubt the resurgence, even with heavy demands for volume from Davante Adams.
As a solid veteran contributor with a major any-week ceiling, Davante Adams lands in Los Angeles in an ideal situation. Adams gained 7.5 yards per target on an 8.2-yard ADOT last season while drawing 10.1 targets per game and scoring eight touchdowns, any rumors of his demise are greatly exaggerated. Adams finished the year with the Jets, a stretch over which he returned to the top-10 in fantasy points per game among receivers. Adams still gains separation on his routes, he is a high-quality receiver but we may look this way more in Week 2 given the tough pass defense that will be guarding him in Week 1.
Tyler Higbee is a playable tight end but he rates as just TE20/19 and TE19/19 and, in truth, is not much more than a dart throw at productivity. Higbee posted a pair of touchdown catches last season while gaining 5.5 yards per target on 3.6 opportunities per game.
Tutu Atwell is the go-to option among the depth receivers on this team. Atwell failed to score in 2024 but he drew 3.6 targets per game on an 11.2-yard average depth of target that can put him into position to make a big play at a cheap price. Atwell is the definition of a dart throw in GPPs in Week 1 against a tough pass defense.
The Rams collective fantasy totals outpace their true quality in all likelihood this week, while they rate as Stack 4 by collective points on both sites, we are required to pay a hefty price for the upside as Stack 15 and Stack 14 by value. Stafford+2 shares with Nacua and Adams are the straight line to production with this team but there are no discounts along that path.
Miami Dolphins
Game Total: 46.5 / MIA +1.0 (22.75)
Plays: 41.40% rush / 58.60% pass / 20.3 ppg / 4.0 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.2 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass / 25.1 ppg / 6.20% sack / 2.94% int
Key Player: Tua Tagovailoa
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane, Malik Washington, Ollie Gordon II, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tanner Conner (on/off), Julian Hill (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, Adonai Mitchell, Tyler Warren
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa was a somewhat productive quarterback despite obvious flaws in the 11 games in which he appeared last season. Tagovailoa threw 19 touchdowns in the limited action, with only seven interceptions over that stretch. While 2,867 yards are not a whopping total, the quarterback did manage to throw for 7.2 yards per pass attempt despite an anemic 5.7 intended air yards per attempt that ranked at the bottom of the league. When things are right for Miami, Tagovailoa benefits from the tremendous after-the-catch skills of several of his weapons on offense via his extremely accurate passing. The quarterback is capable but lesser on deep throws. Tagovailoa ranks as QB15/20 on both sites, but the Dolphins collective looks quite a bit better across the board for NFL DFS action this weekend.
Running Backs
De’Von Achane has shaken loose a bit of the concerns about workload sharing and role that plagued him over the past couple of highly productive seasons. Achane featured in all 17 games last season, following up an 11-game breakout campaign in 2023. The running back totaled 907 yards and six touchdowns on his 203 carries, an average of 4.5 yards per rush attempt for the season. Achane has explosive ability and top-shelf speed and he is a weapon in the passing game, where he added another six touchdowns and hauled in 4.6 of 5.1 targets on average. The running back is a major weapon across fantasy football and his true competition for snaps in Week 1 will come from rookie Ollie Gordon II who is a different type at the position. Achane should have the clear lead role and could dominate early touches with an easy path from his 17.0 to potentially 20.0 touches per game in 2025. The running back enters week 1 as RB6 by points and RB5 by value on DraftKings, where PPR scoring bolsters his numbers, and he is RB8/14 on the FanDuel slate.
Ollie Gordon II is a rookie sixth round pick out of Oklahoma State. Gordon is 6’1″ 226lbs and could represent a change of pace option for the Dolphins with the smaller Achane providing the lightning to Gordon’s thunder. The running back should not be relied on as a significant option in lineup building this week, his opportunity remains murky and he rates as just RB38/35 and RB36/33 but he should warrant a few touches throughout the game and could hit paydirt if he happens to fall into the end zone. Gordon had 13 touchdowns and was held to just 880 yards on 190 carries, 4.6 yards per attempt down from 6.1 the year before, in his final season in college. In 2023 he put up a ridiculous 1,732 yards and 21 touchdowns with another 330 yards and a score in the passing game over his 14 contests.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Tyreek Hill ranks as WR9 by points on both sites but hefty pricing drops him to WR22 by value across the industry. The star receiver was limited to just six touchdowns and 7.8 yards per target on 7.2 looks per game through 2024, playing with a who’s who of awfulness at quarterback when Tagovailoa was out of action. Hill played in all 17 games last year, finishing at just 959 yards on 81-123 receiving, the first time he was under 1,000 yards in a season since a shortened 2019 campaign that saw him play just 12 games. Hill is in his early 30s and it would not surprise to see his skills erode somewhat, he cannot stay as fast and explosive as he once was forever. The receiver should benefit against the likely Indianapolis defensive scheme in Week 1, a big performance is in no way out of the question, but Hill will be competing with a (hopefully) renewed Jaylen Waddle and an interesting group of mouths to feed in a dink-and-dunk passing game.
Jaylen Waddle was a mess last season. Waddle finished 2024 with two touchdowns and 744 yards on 58-83 receiving over 15 games, gaining a steady 9.0 yards per target on a 10.0-yard ADOT. Waddle’s fantasy output was extremely disappointing for expectations after he posted 1,000 yards or more in each of his first three seasons in the league. The receiver did look like himself in limited action with Tagovailoa at the wheel, however, putting up a steady 2.14 yards per route run over that stretch. Waddle still remains a big week option, he had two games over 100 receiving yards last season in a limited year, three the previous year, and a whopping six in his huge 1,356-yard 75-catch eight-touchdown 2022 breakout. Waddle remains an excellent Robin to Hill’s Batman, he is WR15/11 on DraftKings and slots in as WR15 for points on FanDuel while spiking all the way to WR1 for value at just $5,500 on the blue site.
Malik Washington drew 2.6 targets per game on a 5.4-yard average depth of target last season, limiting him to 6.2 yards per target and zero touchdowns, his rookie season did not go to plan. the sixth round pick out of Virginia in 2024 should remain the team’s primary third option at the receiver position, he will have to keep the likes of just Nick Westbrook-Ikhine at bay. Washington stands just 5’9″ and weighs in at 191 lbs but he impressed during the preseason and should see chances early in 2025. This is not a go-to option but as a depth addition to pad a stack to a +2 configuration, Washington is OK in limited doses.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine scored nine times last season, putting up 8.3 yards per target on an 11.5-yard ADOT during his last season in Tennessee. Most of the player’s scoring came on big plays, he posted just 497 yards on 32-60 receiving and has never drawn more than those 60 targets in his five-year career. Westbrook-Ikhine clings to value as a cheap filler piece in stacks of Dolphins, he is a less-than-likely contributor with a bit of big play upside for a touchdown.
Miami rates as Stack 5 by points and Stack 8 by value on DraftKings while landing less comfortably at Stack 5 by points and Stack 10 by value against a gettable Colts defense that rated 28th in football allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt last season, this should push upside toward Tagovailoa+1 or +2 stack configurations, with significant consideration given to Achane’s value in the passing game. Hill, Achane, and Waddle are by far the go-to weapons with anyone else acting simply as a last man in any stack build.
New England Patriots
Game Total: 44.5 / NE -2.5 (23.5)
Plays: 43.43% rush / 56.57% pass / 17.0 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 6.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass / 25.5 ppg / 6.34% sack / 1.78% int
Key Player: Drake Maye
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Stefon Diggs, TreVeyon Henderson, Rhamondre Stevenson (on/off), DeMario Douglas, Hunter Harvey, Kayshon Boutte, Austin Hooper (large field), Kyle Williams (large field), Mack Hollins (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, Ashton Jeanty, Dont’e Thornton, Tre Tucker, Jack Bech (large field), Raheem Mostert (on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Drake Maye gets an easy Week 1 matchup against a Raiders defense that was limited for pressure last season while keeping pass yardage to a mid-ranked level and allowing the fifth-most passing touchdowns in football. Maye was in and out for New England last season, playing a total of 13 games in his rookie year but two of those games saw him take fewer than 20 snaps. Maye posted far better numbers as the full-time starter, when he saw the majority of the snaps in a game he landed just outside of the top-10 in quarterback fantasy point scoring, though his overall numbers were far more pedestrian. The quarterback slots in for both points and value in Week 1 after a season that saw him throw for 15 touchdowns against 10 interceptions while gaining just 6.7 yards per pass attempt and running two additional scores in on scrambles. Maye is QB9/5 on DraftKings and QB11/5 on the FanDuel slate at the top of a revamped passing attack.
Running Backs
The Patriots got very little from the running back position last season. Rhamondre Stevenson finished the year with just 3.9 yards per rush attempt and a single touchdown, he has been relegated to backup duties on the depth chart going into 2025. TreVeyon Henderson is expected to take the reins at the running back position, he draws a very interesting mark for value on the FanDuel slate at just $4,700. Henderson is a multi-faceted back with a decent but not outrageous 40-time, extreme explosive burst ability, and good hands. The second rounder out of Ohio State stands at 5’10” and weighs in at 202 lbs, he is not a bruising back but he should provide a diverse set of skills for the needy Patriots offense. The back had 1,016 yards and 10 touchdowns on 144 carries in his final college season, adding 27 catches for another 284 yards from scrimmage. Henderson will lose some touches to both Stevenson and veteran Antonio Gibson but the cheap running back seems worthy of inclusion on Week 1 slates. Henderson is RB18/16 on DraftKings, where he is playable but not a priority, he is more interesting for the low FanDuel price, he rates as RB17 by points but vaults to RB2 when it comes to value.
Rhamondre Stevenson rates as a playable but low-end touchdown-dependent option on expectations of limited volume this week. The running back finished a lousy 2024 with only 801 yards on 207 carries, which mostly tracks with the 619 he posted on 156 chances the year before, he is simply low-end when it comes to ground gains but he does find the end zone from time to time, last season’s seven touchdowns were a career high in an otherwise lost season.
Antonio Gibson is an afterthought who could see slight involvement in the passing game, though he drew just 7.1 carries and 1.7 targets per game in a more significant role last season.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs is a savvy veteran receiver who joins this group in the latter stages of his career. Diggs is coming off of an ACL tear that will only exacerbate the issue. The receiver was productive last season, however, putting up 1.97 yards per route run and drawing solid route and read shares in his time on the field for Houston. The disappointing half-season resulted in the first year in the last seven in which Diggs failed to reach 1,000 receiving yards or score at least six touchdowns, he had three for the year in eight games. Diggs has bounce-back potential but his age 31 season certainly brings questions about the full return to form for a receiver who many considered slightly overrated even at his peak. Diggs topped out with 11 touchdowns and 1,429 yards on 108 catches over 154 targets during the 2022 season in Buffalo but dipped to just 1,183 yards and eight scores on the same catch and target volume the following season before parting company with the Bills. In a league in which it is better to make a move a year early rather than a year late, the handwriting was clear in Buffalo, we may not want to over-invest in Diggs as WR29/30 and WR30/33 in Week 1.
DeMario Douglas does not offer much more upside as WR44/40 or WR43/37, though he was the team’s primary weapon through much of last season. Douglas put up 7.1 yards per target on just 5.1 targets and 3.9 catches per game with an ADOT of just 5.9 yards, he is not a big downfield operator but he managed to find the end zone three times in 17 games.
Hunter Henry slots in as a mid-board tight end option who plays up in stacks and could provide a bit of touchdown-dependent scoring. Henry put the ball in the end zone twice in the limited New England offense last season, finishing the year with 674 yards on 66 catches over 97 targets. The tight end was a bigger scoring threat in a six-touchdown season over just 14 games in 2023 but he is a limited option at best.
Kayshon Boutte can go get it with a 14.5-yard average depth of target in limited action last year. Boutte drew 4.5 targets per game and returned 8.7 yards per target and three touchdowns for the investment. The receiver is an interesting mixer slated to start on the outside across from Diggs with Douglas in the slot. Boutte would be the deep threat in that configuration, he could spike a few big play touchdowns through the year but the team also has Mack Hollins in the wings as an alternate option to run the deep route. Boutte will be the first man up for value in DFS lineups, however, though he does not rate well at all on a limited projection and limited potential touches. The receiver totaled 589 yards on 43 catches and 68 targets last season.
The Patriots are a low-rated option this week as Stack 21 by points and Stack 16 by value on DraftKings, they gain a bit of ground on cheap pricing on the blue site and land as Stack 20 by points but Stack 8 by value. The options from this team are probably best deployed as inexpensive standalone options in other lineups, rather than as full stacks.
New Orleans Saints
Game Total: 43.5 / ARI -6.0 (18.75)
Plays: 43.02% rush / 56.98% pass / 19.9 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.2 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass / 25.1 ppg / 6.20% sack / 2.94% int
Key Player: Spencer Rattler
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara, Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson, Brandin Cooks, Kendre Miller (on/off), Mason Tipton (very large field), Devaughn Vele (very large field),
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride, James Conner, Michael Wilson, Trey Benson (on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Spencer Rattler lives in the unfortunate reality of carrying the cool name of a far more talented quarterback from an alternate universe. This reality’s version of Rattler is simply not a qualified NFL passer, the quarterback averaged a mere 5.80 yards per pass attempt on 38.0 attempts per game, throwing four touchdowns and five interceptions across his limited action in seven games as a rookie last season and now he is the expected regular starter in New Orleans. Rattler threw for a total of 1,317 yards and completed just 57.0% of his passes while failing to throw for more than the 243 yards he posted in his debut game against freewheeling Tampa Bay. Rattler had a 240-yard day in Week 18 against that same Tampa Bay squad and only went over 200 yards in one other performance, a 218-yard day against Las Vegas in Week 17. The Quarterback had zero multiple touchdown games but two games in which he threw two interceptions. Rattler has weapons on offense but they are better deployed where he will be just a part of their scoring equation, not the driving force of a full stack, though he does rate as QB9 by value at a $4,800 price tag on DraftKings there is very little to actually work with.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara remained a presence in fantasy football in 2024, delivering a four-touchdown day for a slate-breaker in Week 2 against Dallas and consistently high numbers for receiving to pad PPR scoring throughout the year. Kamara gained 4.2 yards per rush attempt on 16.3 carries per game, posting 67.9 yards per contest but he finished the season with just six rushing touchdowns, the fourth straight season of insignificant totals in that department (in fact, a four-year high after 5, 2, and 4 working backward in time). Kamara posted another two touchdowns in the passing game, doubling his total from last year and matching his output from 2022 but far off of the five that he posted the two seasons prior to that one. The running back still draws significant targeting in the offense and he remains productive with 6.1 yards per target, most concerns about volume are more for season-long and based on missed contests. Kamara averaged 16.3 carries and 6.4 targets for 22.7 potential touches per game last season, he remains one of the best options for volume and a steady contributor capable of breaking a slate, though most of his outings beyond Week 2 were of a more human nature. Kamara is a lead running back option in any PPR format, he was a top option for receptions and yardage at the position once again last year. The matchup against a revamped Cardinals defense is not a good one, despite appealing numbers last year the expectation is that the Arizona defense will be stout against the run, pushing Kamara into pass-game action as the primary expectation. The veteran is RB12/11 and RB13/17 across sites, he is playable but there will be better spots through the season.
Kendre Miller sees limited action behind the workhorse, he had 6.5 carries per game and gained just 3.8 yards per rush attempt last year, adding limited value in the passing game with 1.1 targets per contest. The third-year running back gained 32 yards and scored a touchdown in Week 14 against the Giants, the lone week to see him crack double-digit carries. Miller is not even a dart throw outside of chasing the Kamara downfall. Rookie Devin Neal is similarly low-expectation on a near total lack of volume.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Chris Olave is a very good wide receiver when not concussed. The problem was only made worse by two more concussions last season, marking five major events and an unknown number of minor ones through his playing career. Olvae gained an excellent 9.1 yards per target on 5.5 looks per game when he was active, though he scored just once on his 10.3-yard average depth of target. The year before, Olave had 1,123 yards and five touchdowns on 87 catches over 137 targets in a full season. He was also solid as a rookie after being selected 12th overall in the 2022 draft. Olave posted 8.8 yards per target and 1,042 yards on 72 catches, drawing 119 targets in his rookie season, he has been a positional standout every time he has been healthy. The receiver has been active through the preseason and is reportedly at 100%, or as close as he can get. In his limited full action last season, Olave still posted excellent marks for yards-per-route-run and first read opportunities, he is a true top receiver and he rates as a value option on the big Week 1 slate. The one problem is that Spencer Rattler is throwing him the ball. Olave is WR20 by points on both sites but he is WR8 by value on DraftKings and WR15 by value on FanDuel and he is likely to slip below what his ownership levels should be on both sites.
Rashid Shaheed is another interesting downfield weapon for a quarterback with questionable ability to get the ball to him. Shaheed had a massive 17.6-yard average depth of target as one of the league’s true major deep threats, he scored three times on 6.8 targets per game, making the catch on just 3.3 per game but was limited to just six contests and 41 targets for the season. In 15 games the year before, Shaheed caught 46 of 75 passes for 719 yards and five touchdowns, he has reasonable expectations to approach at least that level of production if the team can find him down the field in 2025. Shaheed is a playable WR35/28 and WR34/34 across sites but he is a true boom or bust option.
Juwan Johnson does not rate well at the tight end position this week, he scored three times last year and caught just 2.9 passes per game, though he has more talent than that. Johnson caught 42 of 65 targets for 508 yards and seven touchdowns in 2022 and had a solid four-touchdown year in 2023.
Brandin Cooks, Mason Tipton, and Devaughn Vele are, at best, mix-and-match level players who are extremely limited by opportunity and the quality of quarterback play even if they do make it onto the field.
The Saints are not an appealing stack as Stack 18 by points on both sites, though they do find value marks with Rattler’s cheap price and a few fair options as Stack 10 for value on DraftKings, on the blue site they remain lousy for value. Kamara on his own is absolutely fine across the industry, though he is in a potentially tough matchup. Olave and Shaheed are interesting big play options for a touchdown, but it is unlikely that we see all three players, or even two of them, succeed in the same game frequently this year.
New York Giants
Game Total: 45.5 / NYG +6.0 (19.75)
Plays: 39.89% rush / 60.11% pass / 16.1 ppg / 4.2 ypa rush / 6.0 ypa pass
oppDEF: 5.0 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass / 24.9 ppg / 7.58% sack / 1.88% int
Key Player: Russell Wilson
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Cam Skattebo, Darius Slayton, Theo Johnson, Devin Singletary (on/off), Jaylin Hyatt (very large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Terry McLaurin, Austin Ekeler, Deebo Samuel Sr., Zach Ertz, Noah Brown, Jaylin Lane
Game Notes:
Quarterback
The Giants spent a second round pick on a quarterback in the wake of Daniel Jones’ departure (“there was much rejoicing”) this offseason, but the team also brought in veteran caddies for the rookie with Russell Wilson getting the first crack at the starting gig. Wilson had a lousy year over 11 games in his age 35 season in Pittsburgh, he was also fairly low-end during his two years in Denver and his final year in Seattle, meaning it has been at least since 2020 that Wilson was what we would consider a good option. The quarterback has had a few games along the way, his 25 touchdown passes against only six interceptions over 400 pass attempts in 2021 for Denver stand out somewhat but they come with only 3,113 yards on 259 completions. Wilson threw for 4,212 yards and 40 touchdowns in 2020, capping a run of four straight seasons and five in six years of 30 or more touchdown passes. Those days, unfortunately, are likely long gone, though Wilson could see a bump in productivity when starting just by virtue of the presence of Malik Nabers. Wilson is a low-end QB21/15 and QB21/19 and is not truly on the board this week in anything but the most contrarian value builds.
Rookie Jaxson Dart should not be expected to take the field unless something goes awry.
Running Backs
Tyrone Tracy Jr. popped for a few interesting DFS games last season, ultimately ending the year at 4.4 yards per rush attempt with five rushing touchdowns and another score through the air on 3.1 targets per game. Tracy has the skillset of a three-down back but he will be pushed for opportunity by the ongoing presence of Devin Singletary, who has never been as good as the Giants braintrust seemed to think he was in signing him last season, and rookie Cam Skattebo, by far the more interesting option down the depth chart. Tracy is a mixer for running back value in Week 1, the Washington defense was not special against the run in the overall last year but came on in the second half in limiting both explosive runs and yards after contact. Tracy also runs the risk of hitting the bench early, given his significant issues with turnovers as a rookie.
Devin Singletary occupies the two spot on the depth chart but the quality is simply lacking. The running back posted just 3.9 yards per rush attempt last season, scoring four times on the ground but ceding the starting gig to Tracy in Week 5. Singletary is no more than a touchdown-dependent cheap filler at the running back spot and he is barely even that.
Cam Skattebo is in an uncertain spot when it comes to potential playing time and touches. The talent is there for the bruising 5’10 219lbs back out of Arizona State that the team took in the fourth round. Skattebo gained 1,711 yards on 293 carries with 21 touchdowns in his final college season at age 22. The running back added a ridiculous 605 yards on 45-55 receiving with another three touchdowns through the air, totaling to 2,316 yards from scrimmage and 24 scores. Skattebo was wildly productive in college, he lacks speed but does everything else on the field while resembling a lineman. The running back will be extremely interesting or he will be a zero who does not see the field, there seems to be very little in between.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Malik Nabers is a superstar and the one good thing on this team. Nabers had a ridiculous debut season that saw him garner a 41.38% air yards share in a passing game that did not change the group around him in any meaningful way. The receiver caught seven touchdown passes in 15 games, hauling in 109 of 170 targets, not all of which were particularly well-thrown. Nabers averaged 7.1 yards per target on a 9.1-yard ADOT as by far the lead option, he is a no-brainer play at wide receiver in Giants stacks and the only truly appealing standalone player from this team in other lineups. Nabers lands as WR4 by points and WR12 by value on DraftKings, he is WR5/12 on the FanDuel slate.
Wan’Dale Robinson played all 17 games and posted just 699 yards on 93 catches last season, good for a 5.0 yards per target average. He scored three times. This is the team’s number two option at the position.
Darius Slayton scored twice last season. Slayton saw action in 16 contests last season, drawing 70 targets and catching just over half of them for 573 yards on 39 catches. He lands as WR50 and WR49 for points across sites.
Jalin Hyatt had a wildly underserved reputation for getting downfield and providing big play opportunities that largely faded away in a low-end second season. Hyatt caught 23 of 40 targets for 373 yards but did not score in 17 games as a rookie in 2023, he followed that effort with just eight catches on 19 targets last season, gaining 62 yards and again failing to score. He gained just 3.3 yards per target for the season but lands fourth on this team’s depth chart.
Rookie Beaux Collins was undrafted out of Notre Dame. The 6’3″ 206lbs receiver made the 53-man roster but his role is murky at best. He could eventually give the team some complementary size that would play well in a group of complete afterthoughts behind Nabers but is unlikely to see much action initially.
The Giants are a bad Stack 14/17 on DraftKings and Stack 16/16 on FanDuel, with most of that quality being pushed through Nabers, who is far better as a one-off option in other lineups or as a bring-back player in stacks of Commanders on the other side of this contest. Tracy would be the second-most playable option, he would not require stacking though he could be included if one plays Wilson + lineups, given his general involvement in the passing game.
New York Jets
Game Total: 38.5 / PIT +2.5 (18.0)
Plays: 35.94% rush / 64.06% pass / 19.9ppg / 4.3 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass / 20.8 ppg / 6.37% sack / 2.82% int
Key Player: Justin Fields
Setting: at most two
Team Group: Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Mason Taylor, Braelon Allen, Josh Reynolds, Allen Lazard, Jeremy Ruckert (on/off), Arian Smith (very large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf, Jonnu Smith, Kaleb Johnson, Pat Freiermuth, Calvin Austin III, Kenneth Gainwell, Roman Wilson
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Justin Fields is now on the Jets and all of the franchises concerns about the quarterback position over the last several decades have finally been alleviated. Wouldn’t the world be nice if that were the case? Instead, Jets fans are saddled with a quarterback who is fantastic in the ground game and erratic at best when called upon to pass. Fields played in 10 games for the Steelers last season, posting 1,106 passing yards with five touchdowns and one interception. The quarterback showed his ongoing quality in the rushing game with 289 yards on 62 carries and another five touchdowns over the same stretch. Fields is not entirely valueless when it comes to DFS production, he is just not a good real life option at the position. In his best passing season, Fields threw for 2,562 yards with 16 touchdown passes and nine interceptions over 13 games in his final season in Chicago. The appeal comes from the player’s ability to generate points on the ground, he should be a part of the Jets’ rush-centric attack but not necessarily an integral part of scoring this season, that may be handled more by a resurgent Breece Hall. Fields drops into Week 1 as a playable QB12/6 on DraftKings and QB12/12 on FanDuel, though he is not among the top priorities at the position.
Running Backs
Breece Hall devastated fantasy owners last season with just 4.2 yards per rush attempt and 876 yards with five touchdowns across a nearly full season of 16 games. Hall simply did not get the engine running and was significantly downgraded all season. The running back posted a far better 4.5 yards per attempt in 2023 and an outrageous 5.8 yards per attempt in a more limited role in his rookie season. Hall is a talented running back but he is yet to gain 1,000 rushing yards in a season. The running back picks up value from his significant contributions in the passing attack, helping him to create fantasy scoring in all formats. Hall drew 4.8 targets per game last season, taking them for 6.4 yards per target and bringing in three receiving touchdowns to pad his overall scoring. Still, even with the 483 yards he gained through the air, it was a down season compared to the 1,585 yards he put up from scrimmage in 2023. Hall slots in as RB14/18 and RB14/20 across sites in a middling offense with some danger for shared carries with a potentially emerging talent in Braelon Allen. The matchup against a reasonably stout Pittsburgh defense is also less than ideal for the Jets ground game, but that is how they plan to score points this year so some sneaky upside is certainly in play.
Braelon Allen gained just 3.6 yards per rush attempt and scored twice in the ground game last season, adding 5.5 yards per target and a receiving touchdown to the mix. Allen is expected to see an increased role in Aaron Glenn’s vision of the team, and he played well in posting a 4.5 yard per attempt mark in the preseason. The second year running back is more significant for the chance he cuts into Hall’s output rather than for his own upside as a mid-ranked cheap running back dart.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Garrett Wilson remains the go-to receiver in what will be a highly limited Jets passing attack this season. Justin Fields is simply not a very capable passer, which will impact the high-volume deep threat that Wilson provides. The receiver garnered a 35.18% air yards share on a 9.1-yard average depth of target over 9.1 targets per game last season, scoring seven times. Despite competing with Davante Adams for part of the season, Wilson finished the year with more than 100 catches for the first time in his three seasons, hauling in 101 of 154 targets for 1,104 yards and 7.2 yards per target. He has been over 1,000 yards in each of his first three seasons, with a mixed bag of quarterbacks throwing the ball, one can only wonder what a bit of quality at the position would do to bolster Wilson’s numbers, which is a better dream than worrying about what Fields might to do tank them. Wilson is just WR18/34 and WR18/26 but possesses more talent-based upside than that on any given slate, he remains playable but expectations must be tempered, he is likely to be a better play at a cheaper price in the coming weeks than he is in a very tough matchup against excellent individual defenders.
Mason Taylor slots in as a mix-and-match tight end in his debut. The second round pick was taken out of LSU to fill this tarting job, he certainly fills the uniform well at 6’5″ 251lbs. Taylor caught 55 balls for 546 yards and two touchdowns last season, he had six total touchdowns in three years and 38 games of college football and now he plays in a lower-end offense than LSU’s.
Josh Reynolds and Allen Lazard are veteran mixers who will be hamstrung for quality by the presence of Fields. Both drew an 11.0-yard average depth of target last season, with Reynolds seeing 2.7 targets per game and scoring once and Lazard putting up a solid six touchdowns on 5.0 targets per game in his 12 contests, a solid return to form after a bad 2023.
The Jets are a low-end option as a stack, they rate as Stack 20/21 and Stack 21/21 across sites, the value lies primarily in Breece Hall value shares in a standalone role.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Game Total: 38.5 / PIT -2.5 (20.5)
Plays: 48.31% rush / 51.69% pass / 21.9 ppg / 4.0 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 23.8 ppg / 7.62% sack / 1.34% int
Key Player: Aaron Rodgers
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf, Jonnu Smith, Kaleb Johnson, Pat Freiermuth, Calvin Austin III, Kenneth Gainwell, Roman Wilson, Darnell Washington (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Mason Taylor, Braelon Allen, Josh Reynolds, Allen Lazard
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Moving from a mix of Justin Fields and Russell Wilson to Aaron Rodgers is a natural downgrade in that you now have to have Aaron Rodgers in your locker room. The quarterback ranks as QB23/24 and QB23/23 coming into Week 1 with a wildcard cast of characters in skill positions. Rodgers threw for just 6.7 yards per pass attempt on his way to 28 touchdowns and 11 interceptions last season, and he threw the ball 34.35 times per game in a heavy volume passing attack. Rodgers was in the bottom-half of all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game and ranked toward the bottom of the barrel among regular starters in important categories like yards per pass attempt and catchable balls. Rodgers had a 39th-ranked completion percentage over expectation last year. The touchdown total potentially obscures what was an otherwise lousy season for the ancient quarterback and now he will step into an almost-certainly lower volume situation, this is not a good option.
Running Backs
Jaylen Warren finally said goodbye to Najee Harris, but he says hello to Kaleb Johnson and Kenneth Gainwell and should continue to operate as the slightly favored option in a general timeshare. Warren gained a solid but not special 4.3 yards per rush attempt on 8.0 carries per game and scored once on the ground, adding quality over 3.2 targets per game over which he gained 6.6 yards per target but failed to score, totaling 310 yards on 38 catches. In fact, Warren is yet to haul in a receiving touchdown in the NFL despite 61 catches for 370 yards in 2023 and 28 catches for 214 yards in 2022. The receptions alone can help pad PPR scoring for the capable running back but Warren has been limited by opportunity, he peaked in 2023 with 784 yards and four touchdowns while gaining 5.3 yards per rush attempt but last year’s backslide and the presence of competition for touches is daunting.
Rookie Kaleb Johnson was drafted in the third round, 83rd overall this season. The 6’1″ 224lbs physical back should provide a solid change of pace and will eventually see regular carries but his role is unclear when listed behind Gainwell on the official depth chart. Johnson gained 1,537 yards and scored 21 times on the ground, adding a pair of touchdown catches on 22 receptions in his final season at Iowa.
Kenneth Gainwell is mostly a caddy at the backup running back spot until the team gains faith in Johnson, but right now he is listed as the second option. Gainwell is a veteran of four seasons, never rushing for more than the 364 yards he gained in 2023 or the five touchdowns he scored as a rookie in 2021.
Receivers & Tight Ends
DK Metcalf lands in Pittsburgh after his productive run in Seattle. Metcalf is a reasonable consideration as a mid-board value in Week 1 but he comes with limited expectations despite being the clear number one on the team. Metcalf had three 1,000+ yard seasons in the last five, with 967 and 992 yards in the off years, including the latter total last season. The receiver hauled in just 66 passes on 108 targets in a busy Seattle passing attack but his touchdown total was the lowest he has had in the NFL. Metcalf scored seven times in his rookie season then followed up with 10 and 12 the next two years before dipping to six, eight, and then five last year, though his yards per target marks have climbed the past two seasons, and some of last year’s downturn can be attributed to nagging injuries. Metcalf should be the primary weapon for Rodgers, for whatever that is worth. Against a Jets defense that is very good against the pass, this is unlikely to be a high value position on Sunday.
Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth will share tight end duties in Pittsburgh, potentially limiting production for both previously quality value options. Freiermuth scored seven times on 4.6 targets per game while remaining an unpopular low cost option most weeks and Smith had eight touchdown catches of his own on 6.5 targets per game. The idea that an already limited Steelers passing attack will spend upward of 11 targets on the two tight ends seems a bit unlikely, and that is before we even include Darnell Washington who is now relegated to third on the depth chart despite providing quality on 1.5 targets per game last season.
Calvin Austin III is a low-ranked option as the second wide receiver on this squad. Austin had a significant 12.4-yard ADOT and could see a few deep targets from a bad quarterback against a good pass defense this week. He scored four times last season.
The Steelers are not a particularly strong source of individual plays or stacks in Week 1, they rank as Stack 24 across the board on both sites this week.
Seattle Seahawks
Game Total: 43.5 / SEA +1.0 (21.25)
Plays: 37.18% rush / 62.82% pass / 22.1 ppg / 4.2 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass / 25.6 ppg / 6.69% sack / 2.13% int
Key Player: Sam Darnold
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, Kenneth Walker III, Zach Charbonnet, Tory Horton, Elijah Arroyo, AJ Barner (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Christian McCaffrey (Q), George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, Isaac Guerendo (large field/McCaffrey status), Brian Robinson Jr. (large field/McCaffrey status)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Sam Darnold lands in Seattle after a season that changed the trajectory of his career in Minnesota last year. Darnold filled in admirably for injured rookie JJ McCarthy who takes over for the Vikings this season. The quarterback posted a stellar 35 touchdown passes against 12 interceptions while gaining 7.9 yards per pass attempt and completing 66.0% of his 32 passes per game. Darnold was everyone’s easy pick for regression in his new job in Seattle given some mid-level marks in advanced metrics like catchable target rate and potential turnovers, but we prefer to focus on his high-quality YPA mark and excellent CPOE numbers from last season in the hopes that he can, at worst, replicate the accurate passer that led to some success for Geno Smith in this offense. Darnold will have Jaxson Smith-Njigba as the only returning member of a receiver room that adds Cooper Kupp for a second big option for a quarterback who benefitted from the talents of Justin Jefferson last year. Darnold is likely to come down from on high somewhat this season in the overall but he also seems likely to still provide underappreciated quality and even a few affordable potential slate winners along the way in what should be a good offense. It is best not to look beyond last year in the Darnold career history, here there be monsters.
Running Backs
Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet are a solid 1/1A pairing for real football but they can cut into one another’s workload for DFS scoring potential. Walker was limited to just 3.7 yards per rush attempt but received 13.9 carries per game, he was also heavily involved in the passing attack with 4.8 targets and 4.2 catches per game, posting 5.6 yards per target on a -1.2-yard average depth of target. Charbonnet gained 4.2 yards per rush attempt on 7.9 carries per game and scored eight rushing touchdowns to Walker’s seven, though most of his production came in weeks when Walker was missing in action. In games where both players were active, the lean was still clearly in Walker’s favor, which is expected to remain the situation, at least to some degree, to start the season. Walker rushed for 103 yards and a touchdown on 20 Week 1 carries last year, adding two catches for six yards on 11 routes run in that contest, he then missed two weeks and failed to rush for 100 yards again all season. Charbonnet, meanwhile, cracked the 100-yard mark in a big Week 14 performance that saw him carry the ball a season-high 22 times for 134 yards and two touchdowns while also hauling in seven catches for 59 yards. Charbonnet has demonstrated the ability to operate as a true top running back, he simply lacks the opportunity but sees just enough action to cast the quality of both players somewhat in doubt.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was tremendous in a breakout campaign last year and he leads the receiver depth chart coming into 2025. “JSN” posted 8.2 yards per target on 8.1 targets per game last season, scoring six times in the crowded passing game, he has room to expand on those numbers this season. The receiver totaled 1,130 yards on 100 catches over 137 targets, he should see similar targeting and, we hope, similarly accurate throws and could be a part of keeping Darnold’s quality afloat as the primary weapon. JSN is a fair WR12 by points and WR4 by value on DraftKings, he lands as WR13 by points and WR23 by value on the FanDuel slate and is a priority in stacks while remaining playable in a standalone role.
Cooper Kupp is WR32/42 on DraftKings and WR32/42 on FanDuel in his first game for the Seahawks. The veteran managed just 710 yards on 67-100 receiving last year but he scored another six touchdowns in his 12 games of activity. Kupp had five touchdown catches in 12 games in 2023 and six in nine games in 2022, he can find quality whenever he is on the field but the limited action and injury-prone nature of the player can lead to frustrating DFS days. Kupp was last himself in 2021, his age 28 season, when he posted a ridiculous 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns on 145 catches and 191 targets, that player is never coming back but this one could provide low-cost low-owned quality as a bit more than a dart throw on Sunday. Kupp probably functions best as part of a stack but he can also be deployed individually.
Tory Horton was taken for depth in the fifth round of the draft but he will likely be the third receiver on the depth chart this week with a few injuries on the team. Horton barely played in training camp but he saw first team reps early on and could carve out an early role. The receiver had two 1,100-yard seasons in 2022 and 2023 but dipped to just five games in his final year in Colorado, gaining 353 yards on 26 catches and scoring once. Horton is no more than a low-probability mixer for depth. The same is true for Elijah Arroyo and AJ Barner at the tight end spot.
The Seahawks are a mid-level option as Stack 12/11 and Stack 13/19, though the high pricing on FanDuel may box them out of lineup building. Overall the pairing of Darnold and either, or both, of his primary receivers is the suggested approach but either of the running backs are also usable in stacks given the steady volume out of the backfield in the pass game.
San Francisco 49ers
Game Total: 43.5 / SF -1.0 (22.25)
Plays: 44.54% rush / 55.46% pass / 22.9 ppg / 4.7 ypa rush / 8.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.6 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 21.6 ppg / 7.33% sack / 2.28% int
Key Player: Brock Purdy
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Christian McCaffrey (Q), George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall, Isaac Guerendo (large field/McCaffrey status), Brian Robinson Jr. (large field/McCaffrey status)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, Kenneth Walker III, Zach Charbonnet, Tory Horton
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Brock Purdy was excellent for San Francisco in 2023 and steady in a rough overall 2024 campaign that saw the team deal with a Civil War field hospital’s worth of injuries. Purdy threw for 4,280 yards and 31 touchdowns in 16 games in the 2023 season, his first full year at the wheel. The quarterback dipped in production to just 3,864 yards with 20 touchdowns and 11 interceptions over 15 games but he remained a high-quality producer of fantasy scoring with five games of 300 yards or better. Purdy even added some rushing upside last season, punching the ball in for five scores on the ground while rushing for 323 yards on 66 opportunities. The quarterback will work with whatever version of Christian McCaffrey he is given, as will the rest of us, but the 49ers are once again banged up to start 2025 with several receivers on the IR. Purdy ranks as QB8 by points on both sites, he is just QB19 by value on DraftKings but warrants more consideration as QB7 by value on FanDuel where he is just $6,900. Even with several missing pieces and others gone in the offseason, this remains an offense loaded with potential among the skill positions.
Running Backs
And many hours after starting this article, we arrive at Christian McCaffrey with no additional clarity other than his comment that he is “fine” and expects to be on the field this weekend. McCaffrey said the same thing when he pulled up with a similar injury at the end of training camp, almost a year to the day ago, then proceed to wait until Week 10 to make his season debut, burning all believers in the process. When he returned, the running back posted an OK 4.0 yards per rush attempt and did not score a touchdown in four games before departing with another injury. McCaffrey is only one year removed from dominance, he had 1,459 rushing yards on 272 carries with 14 touchdowns in 2023, adding seven more touchdowns in the passing game on 67 catches for 564 yards. Assuming he takes the field at all, we have to ride with a running back who projects as RB1/1 on DraftKings and RB1/4 on FanDuel against a rush defense that yielded 4.6 yards per attempt last season. Despite concerns, unless he is ruled out, McCaffrey remains a go-to and a top billing in 49ers stacks.
Brian Robinson Jr. and Isaac Guerendo will spell the superstar running back, perhaps more than initially planned. If this is the case, Guerendo is the more interesting player for DFS, he put up 5.0 yards per rush attempt in a small sample filling in last year and has major burst at the position. Robinson Jr. had 4.3 yards per attempt and scored eight times in the Washington ground game last year, he would have quality potential in McCaffrey’s absence as well.
Receivers & Tight Ends
George Kittle slots in as TE3/3 and TE2/2 across sites behind the obvious contenders. Kittle is a strong option at the position when healthy, he gained a massive 11.8 yards per target on 6.3 chances per game last season, scoring eight times in the passing game and operating on a healthy 8.1-yard average depth of target for a 19.02% air yards share. Kittle remains a sure-handed star and could lead the team in targets in the early action.
Jauan Jennings will be operating as the top-billed receiver this season, he checks into Week 1 as WR28 by points but WR19 by value on DraftKings, he is WR27/29 on FanDuel. The fifth-year receiver broke through last season, climbing the depth chart as options above him were peeled away and eventually finishing the year with 77 catches on 113 chances for 975 yards and six touchdowns. Jennings is a dynamic route-runner, he ranked in the top-25 of most critical underlying categories after taking the big job in Week 10 last season, averaging 2.23 yards per route run down the stretch. Jennings also exploded earlier in the season with an 11-catch day for 175 yards and three touchdowns on 12 targets against the Rams in Week 3. While he did not crest 100 yards the rest of the way, he did reach 90+ yards three times from Week 10-14 and was aggressively targeted as the first option throughout the end of the season. Jennings is an interesting mixer as a standalone value and he is a go-to contributor in stacks of 49ers.
Ricky Perasall was a buzzy name in season-long drafts and around the industry headed into Week 1. The mystique that developed around Pearsall following his preseason shooting and subsequent survival and return last year border on the absurd. In the 11 games during which he was available, Pearsall posted 400 yards on 31-46 receiving for 8.7 yards per target and three touchdowns. His numbers are skewed by a big Week 17 game that saw him put up 141 yards on eight catches and score a touchdown, he added another the following week against Arizona. Pearsall is a big quick receiver who should see a strong opportunity to succeed ahead of a more limited depth chart this season, but he still competes for shares with a volume monster in McCaffrey and lands behind both Jennings and Kittle among pure pass-catchers. As WR30 by points and WR7 by value for just $4,500, this concern is addressed by the price but popularity will become concerning. On FanDuel, Pearsall is a $5,300 option as WR29/14 who will probably also draw a bit too much enthusiasm from the public.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling was signed from the practice squad to provide filler with multiple other receivers out of action, he has not been relevant since his 2022 season with the Chiefs. Las year, “MVS” racked up just 385 yards on 17-35 receiving, though he did reach paydirt four times.
The 49ers are an appealing option that warrants top-end combinations as Stack 7/7 on DraftKings and Stack 7/5 on FanDuel. Purdy+2 combinations with McCaffrey and either of the primary pass catchers are viable, as are options that combine Kittle and one of the top WRs or both top WR options. San Francisco clicks together for quality in a variety of configurations, most of those players are also viable as standalone or bring-back options in other lineups.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Game Total: 47.5 / TB -1.0 (24.25)
Plays: 44.64% rush / 55.36% pass / 29.0 ppg / 5.2 ypa rush / 8.0 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.5 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 24.9 ppg / 5.09% sack / 2.08% int
Key Player: Baker Mayfield
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka, Bucky Irving, Cade Otton, Rachaad White, Sterling Shepard, Tez Johnson
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney (Q), Kyle Pitts Sr., Ray-Ray McCloud III, Tyler Allgeier (on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield is likely to be a very popular option coming into Week 1 at fair pricing in a seemingly strong matchup against the Falcons. Mayfield is coming off of a career year in which he won multiple DFS main slates in the prolific Tampa Bay passing attack and he ranks as QB3/4 on DraftKings and FanDuel. As the head man for the team that ranks as Stack 2 by points on both sites, Mayfield has heavy expectations for quality, he will need to post solid numbers to beat both the cost and popularity concerns, but that was the case several times last year. Mayfield threw a whopping 41 touchdowns against just 16 interceptions in 2024, gaining 7.9 yards per pass attempt on 7.0 intended air yards per attempt. Mayfield finished the season ranked fourth among quarterbacks for fantasy scoring, his touchdown total was by far a career-high but there is not much reason to expect a total collapse in quality. Mayfield was excellent in accuracy metrics and completions over expectation last season, a feat that he could replicate with familiar options at his disposal in 2025. The quarterback is primed to quiet the doubters once again this season, he is an excellent starting point that does require a thought toward differentiation in lineup building to truly get away from the common constructions.
Running Backs
Bucky Irving had a breakout that we were all over early on and in season-long drafts ahead of last year. Irving eventually overtook incumbent starter Rachaad White via his involvement in both the rushing and the passing game, though White retained a fair amount of pass-game work in the exchange, holding on to a 13.5 touch average through the second-half. Irving is the undisputed lead option in the offense coming into 2025, he rates as RB7 by points and RB9 by value on DraftKings and RB6/5 on FanDuel and has appeal both in and out of stacks on both sites. Irving rushed for an excellent 5.4 yards per attempt on 12.2 carries per game last year, adding 2.8 catches on 3.1 targets per game for 7.5 yards per target. Irving finished the year at 1,122 yards on 207 carries with eight rushing touchdowns, he did not score in the passing game but added an excellent 392 more yards from scrimmage while catching a ridiculous 47 of 52 targets for the year. 1,500+ yards from scrimmage from a running back who did not take the reins until several games into the season and averaged just 29.2 snaps per game for the whole season is an outstanding total, Irving is made of upside going into this season.
Rachaad White remained involved throughout the year, punching in six receiving touchdowns on his 3.6 targets and 3.2 catches per game and another three scores on the ground with an end of year mark of 9.0 carries per game. White is a capable receiver who pads scoring in stacks in PPR formats but he requires that bump to truly make value unless something happens above him on the depth chart.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Mike Evans is a future Hall of Famer who has still not failed to gain 1,000 yards in a season, though year 11 of that stretch was a close one in 2024. Evans played just 14 games last season, working his way to 1,004 yards on 74 catches over 110 targets, the catch total was not far removed from what he came away with on fewer targets in years past and his 9.1 yards per target was entirely consistent with typical production over the past six seasons. Evans came up with 11 touchdowns on the year, following up a season with 13, and continuing a run of double-digit touchdowns in four of the last five seasons, with the lone exception coming in 2022. Evans is an outstanding option on any given slate, he lands as WR7 by points and WR14 by value on DraftKings, he is WR6 by points and WR10 by value on FanDuel and works both in and out of stacks.
Emeka Egbuka will get a major opportunity with this offense while Chris Godwin remains sidelined recovering from injury. Egubka was taken 19th overall in the first round out of Ohio State this year, he stands 6’1″ and weighs 205lbs and could become a solid physical receiver in the league. Egubka put up 1,011 yards on 81 catches with 10 touchdown grabs in his final year at Ohio State, he is a capable number two option out of the gate across from Evans and he only has to stay ahead of Sterling Shepard and fellow rookie Tez Johnson until Godwin returns.
Tez Johnson had a strong preseason and made the team as a seventh round pick, number 235 overall in the draft this year. Johnson played at Oregon and is a somewhat undersized receiver at just 5’10” 165lbs. His 40-time is unimpressive as well at just 4.51 seconds but he flashed solid agility and physical traits that were enough to get him drafted and, now, onto the pared down roster. Johnson had 10 touchdowns in each of his last two seasons in college but with no guaranteed role he is not much more than a mixer at a low rating across sites.
Cade Otton is the true next option in the passing attack behind the two wide receivers and the running back position. Otton scored four times in the passing game last year, posting 6.9 yards per target on 6.2 targets per game and finishing the year with 600 yards on 59 catches. His four touchdowns match the career high set the previous season while he added 12 catches on 20 additional targets for 145 additional yards. Otton is a cheap play at the tight end position on an expensive highly desirable stack, putting him easily on the board for shares as TE13/12 on DraftKings and TE12/11 on FanDuel
Tampa Bay is a rock solid option among the best stacks of the week, they rate as Stack 2 by points and Stack 3 by value on DraftKings and Stack 2 across the board on the FanDuel slate with talent at every spot. The go-to combination is Mayfield to Evans with the additions of Irving, Egbuka, and Otton in a +2 configuration, in that order of priority. White is a consideration as well, the volume in the passing game will keep him relevant enough for inclusion when building lineups for large field GPP play if nothing else.
Tennessee Titans
Game Total: 42.5 / DEN -8.0 (17.25)
Plays: 43.60% rush / 56.40% pass / 18.3 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.0 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 19.0 ppg / 9.33% sack / 2.37% int
Key Player: Cam Ward
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Lockett, Chig Okonkwo, Elic Ayomanor, Van Jefferson Jr. (large field), Julius Chestnut (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Courtland Sutton, RJ Harvey, JK Dobbins, Marvin Mims Jr., Evan Engram, Troy Franklin, Pat Bryant (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Cam Ward leads a Titans team on the rebuild. Ward was the consensus number one overall pick in this year’s draft after a hugely successful run at Miami. The quarterback threw for 4,313 yards and 39 touchdowns in 2024, completing 67.2% of his 454 pass attempts and running for another four scores. Ward is a dynamic option at the position but as with similarly talented players that we have seen, he may have some initial growing pains that will not be pretty for fantasy scoring. Throw in the team with the second-highest pressure rate and a top blitz rate while ranking among the top defenses in the game against the pass last year and we have a bad Week 1 mix for what should be a promising career. Ward is best left untouched as QB24/23 and QB24/24 across sites this week.
Running Backs
Tony Pollard will field the majority of work in this backfield until Tyjae Spears returns to gum up the works again. Pollard was an effective rusher last season, posting 4.2 yards per attempt over 16.3 carries per game and adding another 3.6 potential touches via regular targeting in the pass game. While he ended the year with 1,079 yards and five touchdowns on the ground, Pollard provides additional upside via his receiving talents, he has caugh at least 39 passes for four straight seasons, including a career-high 55 in 2023 during his last season in Dallas. Pollard is an easily playable RB15/13 and RB15/6 on the FanDuel slate where his $6,000 salary plays for value. Denver is a stout rush defense, this is not an easy assignment, but Pollard will see enough volume to provide quality.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Calvin Ridley is a fair option as WR25/18 and WR26/18 across sites. Ridley scored just four times on 7.1 targets per game, despite playing the full season. He caught 84 passes for 1,017 yards and 8.5 yards per target, good for a top-40 finish among fantasy scorers at the position but he was dragged down by uncatchable balls all season long. Ridley is an interesting bounce-back candidate if the team can get better production at quarterback with their prized rookie driving. Ridley will unfortunately run into the teeth of a tough defense in his first test, making him a somewhat unappealing option as a standalone player, though he would be required in any stacks of Titans.
Tyler Lockett ranks as just WR45/46 and WR45/45 across sites, he is not an overly appealing play after posting just two touchdown catches and 8.1 yards per target on 4.4 chances per game during his final run in Seattle. Lockett failed to crack 1,000 yards for the second season in a row, totaling a mere 600 on 49 catches over 74 targets, he is a shadow of his former self at age 32.
Elic Ayomanor may be a name to remember from this offense, he showed solid depth route running in college and could end up beating out Lockett for shares as time marches on. Ayomanor is an afterthought in Week 1 though he could hit the field for a few shots at quality. The receiver is listed third on the depth chart after a fourth-round draft selection this year, he is a big-bodied target at 6’2″ and could help his fellow rookie find success in the early stages of their careers.
Chig Okonkwo is the third or fourth priority in this offense. The tight end can provide glimpses of quality but ranks as TE15/11 and TE16/17 across sites. Okonkwo had 52 catches for 479 yards but scored just twice on 70 targets last season.
The Titans are an unappealing team in a bad matchup at a low implied total, they rank as Stack 23/20 and Stack 23/23 across sites. Tony Pollard is probably most interesting in standalone shares where he will not be reliant on teammates to help production.
Washington Commanders
Game Total: 45.5 / WAS -6.0 (25.75)
Plays: 47.42% rush / 52.58% pass / 28.8ppg / 4.8 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.6 ypa rush / 7.7 ypa pass / 24.4 ppg / 8.21% sack / 0.99% int
Key Player: Jayden Daniels
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Terry McLaurin, Austin Ekeler, Deebo Samuel Sr., Zach Ertz, Noah Brown, Jaylin Lane
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Cam Skattebo, Darius Slayton, Theo Johnson, Devin Singletary (on/off), Jaylin Hyatt (very large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Jayden Daniels is a fantasy superstar and our QB1 by points on both sites this week. At a hefty price, the Washington quarterback does dip slightly to QB2 by value on DraftKings and QB3 by value on the blue site. Daniels is facing a Giants defense that will essentially let him do whatever he would like to start the season. The quarterback was outstanding last year, averaging 7.40 yards per pass attempt on 7.3 intended air yards per attempt and putting up better than 200 yards per game in his rookie season. Daniels threw 25 touchdown passes against just nine interceptions and added another six touchdowns with his excellent rushing ability. The quarterback took off running 8.7 times per game on both scrambles and designed runs, he gained 6.0 yards per rush attempt in the process and was a slate-winner multiple times over. Daniels finished his first season with 3,568 passing yards and another 891 on the ground over 17 games, he could improve upon those numbers on a rising squad this season. While Daniels cracked 300 yards only once last season, if we included the playoffs, he had another game at 299 yards and a third that finished at 275, while cresting 250 yards a total of eight times, including in both the Divisional Round and the Conference Championship. The quarterback rose to the competition, increasing the level of his play down the stretch and into the postseason, he could begin a truly special 2025 campaign in style this Sunday.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler is the nominal lead back for Washington, though expectations are for a major job share situation between the veteran, Chris Rodriguez Jr., and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt, also known as Bill. While Ekeler is the expected starter who will likely eek out a slight opportunity lead in Week 1 he is not set in stone. Merritt was listed third on the depth chart and coach speak has been all over the place on the player in recent days, which could easily be a smokescreen for what is expected to be a frequently involved rookie. While Ekeler had a solid 4.8 yards per rush attempt and 8.9 yards per target on 3.4 targets per game with four touchdowns all on the ground last season, he is far from his best form at this point. Ekeler finished 2024 with 367 yards on the ground and another 366 in the passing game over his 12 games, though he did crest 1,000 scrimmage yards as recently as 2023 with the Chargers.
Merritt is a seventh-round draft pick who gained buzz as camp went on this Summer. The running back out of Arizona was limited to just one game last season but played in 12 contests in 2023, putting up 1,190 yards and 17 touchdowns on just 189 carries for a major program. The talent is real, the expectations are inflated, and the role is wildly uncertain, this is either an ideal or disastrous DFS selection this week.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Terry McLaurin had an extended contract dispute with the Commanders but it was resolved during the final week of camp and the team’s star receiver should be ready to go on Sunday. McLaurin gained 9.4 yards per target on a deep 13.4-yard ADOT for a terrific 40.34% air yards share last season with only Deebo Samuel joining the mix to shake those chances up. McLaurin scored 13 times in the passing game on his 6.9 targets per contest, he is the easy go-to option for Daniels and finished as a top-15 option at the wide receiver position for fantasy scoring last year. McLaurin gained target share and first read upside as the season, and the quarterback, progressed as well. With a nothing pass defense in play on the New York side, this could be a huge performance to begin the season and remind his team what they purchased with his contract extension. McLaurin is an easy WR 14/23 on DraftKings nad WR14/28 on FanDuel this week with upside for more.
Deebo Samuel joins the Commanders after a successful run in San Francisco. Samuel was mostly injured throughout 2024, the toolsy 29-year-old played in 15 games but was in and out with an assortment of ailments. Samuel scored three times in the passing attack, putting up 670 yards on 51-81 receiving and added another 136 yards and a touchdown on 42 carries. The multi-role asset was far better in 2023, scoring seven receiving and five rushing touchdowns and exceeding 1,100 yards from scrimmage. Samuel has a load of individual skill with the ball in his hands, he can catch it underneath and make things happen after the catch or even break one from a handoff. Despite the dip in touchdowns last season, a fully healthy Samuel joining the dynamic Daniels is a tantalizing combination for fantasy point creation.
Zach Ertz caught 66 of 91 targets last year, turning seven of those into touchdown receptions. Ertz is a valuable optoin at a fair price as TE11/17 and TE11/13 across sites. The veteran drew 5.4 targets per game and posted 7.2 yards per target, he is far from finished and could slip through under-owned which was an asset for him in DFS play all of last season.
Noah Brown has just three touchdowns over the past two seasons and just gets over 1,000 combined yards on 68 catches. If that were in a single year it might be a sign of quality, as things stand Brown is simply present in this offense. He does provide a downfield threat opposite McLaurin, given his 11.4-yard average depth of target last year, but the quality is limited. Brown did not score in his first few seasons on very limited play, now in his age-29 season the receiver has just six touchdowns in seven years collecting an NFL paycheck.
The Commanders are a top-ranked option as Stack 11 by points and Stack 6 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 11 across the board on FanDuel but have clear ceiling from that position. Daniels is a functional quarterback in a “naked” role but he is best utilized in pairings with his strong receiving group.
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