NFL DFS – Main Slate Optimizer Groups & Stack Rankings + Full Game Notes (complete) – Week 16

This article focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within the industry’s optimization tools. All of the concepts and pairings included below can also apply to hand-building. The goal is to create lineups with strong correlations among likely point-scorers to maximize the gains from infrequent scoring events within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.

This video was made in a former life and features a detailed demonstration of how to apply these concepts in one leading optimizer tool: Fantasy Cruncher – How-To Video

All references to Sims were done via friends of the site: acemind.io

Don’t miss the Above/Below feature article for a few of our top picks, coming Sunday morning

Game notes are updated during the week and initially posted as “work in progress” as they take a long time to create, if teams are missing notes simply check back later in the day/week and they should be updated.

2024 Week 16 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stack Rankings

The following stack rankings were created by pairing each team quarterback with his top three scoring options, whether they are three wide receivers, two wide receivers and a tight end, a wide receiver, tight end, and running back, or any viable combination. In some cases, an expensive running back can push the overall price point of his team stack in the value rankings.

TEAM	OPP	FD$	FDpRank	FDvalRank	DK$	DkpRank	DKvalRank
CIN	CLE	$33,800	1	1	$30,500	1	2
PHI	WAS	$34,000	2	7	$29,700	2	9
DET	CHI	$30,800	3	2	$26,900	3	4
LAR	NYJ	$32,800	4	11	$27,600	4	8
TB	DAL	$31,700	5	12	$0	0	0
MIN	SEA	$31,100	6	10	$27,300	5	11
ARI	CAR	$30,700	7	9	$24,800	6	3
ATL	NYG	$28,700	8	3	$24,400	8	5
NYJ	LAR	$30,900	9	16	$25,400	7	6
BUF	NE	$30,300	10	13	$26,800	9	15
IND	TEN	$27,200	11	4	$22,200	10	1
MIA	SF	$30,300	12	18	$25,800	11	16
LV	JAC	$26,900	13	8	$22,500	12	7
DAL	TB	$28,100	14	15	$0	0	0
SF	MIA	$25,800	15	5	$23,400	13	14
CAR	ARI	$25,200	16	6	$21,900	16	12
CHI	DET	$25,900	17	14	$22,100	14	10
SEA	MIN	$29,700	18	23	$23,500	15	17
WAS	PHI	$27,900	19	19	$24,200	17	20
TEN	IND	$25,500	20	17	$22,200	18	18
JAC	LV	$26,500	21	20	$22,600	19	19
NYG	ATL	$26,100	22	21	$20,600	20	13
CLE	CIN	$26,300	23	24	$22,300	21	22
NE	BUF	$23,000	24	22	$20,200	22	21

Week 16 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stacks & Optimizer Groups

Overview

Rules and limits are powerful tools for lineup creation for NFL DFS where our primary focus is creating highly correlated lineups via stacking players from the same game. Lineups will typically be coordinated around the quarterback selection, which informs at least one pass-catcher choice, establishes a budget, eliminates a defense, and sets the tone for the lineup. We will typically look to correlate a quarterback and at least one of his pass-catchers in every lineup, with many of those including a skill player from the opposing team. This player is included to support the stack in a high-scoring game that drives offense on both sides, creating additional correlated scoring potential. Stacking multiple pass-catchers in the same lineup is a sound approach, though there are typically overall ceilings on how much volume is available at any given position. While pass-catching running backs can be prioritized in stacks and group tools, including running backs who are not involved in the passing game is less important at this stage, they will fall naturally into shares as needed. High-volume backs and pass catchers out of the backfield can be included in the groups utilized below, but it is frequently not necessary to do so with the very best players, they arrive in lineups without help.

Rules and limits are typically applied in an optimizer’s Advanced Options menu. Notes are included to illustrate the reasons behind each rule and explain what it does during the lineup creation process. These settings can typically be saved for re-use, which is highly recommended. Saving the groups created below is also a good idea that will save time with updates instead of recreation each week. These groups are created manually, but most optimizers include automated group creators that can help accelerate the curation process.

DraftKings + FanDuel Settings & Advanced Options

Note – Terminology may vary from site to site but these are common functions across most industry tools.

Unique Players Per Lineup– This setting forces the optimizer to utilize at least X new players who were not in Lineup 1 when it creates Lineup 2, and so on. We recommend a setting of at least two unique players, more can be applied depending on the degree of differentiation desired within lineups.

Team Salary– a minimum or maximum salary spend can be applied here as needed, although leaving salary on the table is an easy path toward creating unique lineups while not necessarily making a negative expected value play.

FLEX position– allows restrictions on what positions can be rostered at the FLEX spot. The primary position to restrict is the tight end so that lineups do not include two players from the position. In many industry tools this is a separate option via a checkbox, it can also be handled specifically within groups.

Global Exposure Setting – allows caps on the maximum percentage of lineups a player can appear in within a given pool of lineup construction. This is a powerful tool for shaping lineups but if settings are too low, attempts to build a full set will fall short due to a lack of available players, one of the most common errors in optimizer building. Most optimizers include the ability to calculate ownership caps continuously or at the end of the pool creation process. If caps are calculated continuously, a player with a 25% cap who is utilized in Lineup 1 will not be available for use again until Lineup 5, we recommend turning OFF continuous calculation.

Randomness – provides a random multiplier to each player’s projected point total based on the set values. This valuable tool helps differentiate lineups instead of simply creating them in order of the highest median projected scores. Using some randomness for lineup generation is strongly recommended but the degree to which it is applied is down to personal preference, 15-25% is fine to get started. We suggest heavier randomness to more event-based players like wide receivers while tracking volume-based positions like running backs more toward their median or ceiling projections.

DraftKings + FanDuel Team Stack Rules

This set of rules will force optimizers to build lineups with certain combinations. We are looking to stack at least one skill player, almost always a pass-catcher, with his quarterback while frequently playing a skill player from the opposing team in the lineup. The theory behind this build is that a high-scoring stack will require some response from the opposing team to deliver a ceiling score in most situations. Most optimizers utilize a “complete the sentence” approach for rule creation with selections from drop-down menus following a very straightforward logic. Exceptions to these rules can be added for specific teams and players on most optimizer products.

QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It is fine to set this to two or to utilize two versions of this rule, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can also refine this via Groups)
optional – QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from the Opposing Team (we typically prefer the pass-catchers but high-volume running backs can be effective here)
QB with at most zero DST from the Same Team (this is a personal preference; high-scoring teams and quarterbacks tend to leave their defenses on the field, exposing them to simple point-scoring negatives)

Limits & Custom Rules and Requirements

Limit rules can be applied to restrict certain combinations from coming together. This is powerful for limiting multiple running backs from the same team or getting overweight to a certain stack within a lineup.

Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
Limit RB/WR/TE from the Same Team to one unless paired with QB from the Same Team OR the Opposing Team (this prevents multiple players from a team that is not a primary quarterback-based stack)
optional – Limit RB from Same Team to one (we can also do this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s a personal preference for NFL DFS, we typically do not want two pass-catchers from the same team without their quarterback)

We will maintain the list of rules and limits throughout the season, with occasional tweaks. Each week sees another fresh crop of value plays as situations change and injuries create opportunities around the league. These changing roles and emergent value plays are accounted for in creating these groups from week to week. After a large pool of lineups is created utilizing these groups, it is still critical to filter them for factors including ceiling projections and leverage potential. These groups should help ensure that a highly correlated premium set of options that rotates through various combinations is utilized to create the full lineup pool.

Sunday Updates

Any changes and recommended boosts to specific players will be provided in an early morning update each Sunday.

NFL DFS Week 16 Features & FREE Projections

Construction Concept

Team groups are built by utilizing the quarterback as the KEY player in group settings. The quarterback decision is the driving factor in determining which stack the lineup utilizes and which corresponding plays are made to work within the structured requirements. In Fantasy Cruncher, built to specification, each team will have two groups, a team group, and an opponent group, both of which utilize the same quarterback as the key player. Each game will have a total of four groups. This is the best approach to truly capture the requirement of playing individual “run-back” plays from the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to include all of the skill players from a game in each quarterback’s group and rely on rules and limits to restrict any potential overflow. It is highly recommended to save the early season groups as a foundation that will be updated for the rest of the season. The recommended groups will include skill players who have an active role in their offense and provide significant correlation with their quarterback’s scoring, often bell-cow running backs who do not specialize in the passing game will not be included in groups as they are projected highly and appear on their own in basically correct distributions, while also not always providing the strongest positive correlation plays. Stacking quarterbacks with pass-catchers and allowing running backs to fall into the lanes created by settings, available salary, and randomness should create a well-distributed set of quality lineups. These groups are updated weekly to account for changes in utilization, schemes, injuries, target shares, and more.

Team Groups for DraftKings & FanDuel – Week 16

The goal is to create a large pool of well-built lineups that can be utilized in any large-field GPP contest. Our approach is to build far more lineups than needed and utilize a sorting table or sim process to filter to the best set of entries. The lineups created in these crunches should provide a broad distribution that includes some of the lower-owned high-upside skill players from each stack. Applying boosts is critical in pushing and pulling ownership to individual players within their team’s stacked lineups if they appear too much or too little.

The groups below are designed so that each quarterback will have two groups to create, one with his skill players and another with the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to add them all to one large group with an “at least three” and let rules and limits set things, but there is a more granular level of control in creating them separately.

Utilizing two groups also allows us to place running backs into the “run-back” position in certain teams while not including them in the primary stack for their team. This is useful when a situation has an extremely highly projected running back that does not necessarily fit into his team’s passing game. These players are threaded throughout the following construction recommendations.

Note for all optimizers the rules can be utilized to force bring-back plays in some sets of crunches and turned off for others as a global function instead of changing each group to “exactly one” bring-back play, wherever applicable, but it will apply to all teams.

Arizona Cardinals

Game Total: 46.5 / ARI -3.5 (25.0 imp)

Plays: 46.05% rush / 53.95% pass / 22.4 ppg / 5.1 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass

oppDEF: 5.0 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass / 29.9 ppg / 5.73% sack / 1.64% int

Key Player: Kyler Murray

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: James Conner, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Elijah Higgins (on/off), DeeJay Dallas (Q; on/off), Greg Dortch (large field), Zay Jones (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Chuba Hubbard, Adam Thielen, Jalen Coker, David Moore, Tommy Tremble, Ja’Tavion Sanders

Game Notes:

Quarterback

Kyler Murray – QB5 points / QB4 value DraftKings; QB4/QB8 FanDuel – Murray lands in his typically playable role on this week’s slate. While the quarterback is not a top priority it is easy to see success looming against a Carolina defense yielding 5.0 yards per rush and 7.4 yards per pass with 29.9 points per game scored against them. Murray throws for 7.2 yards per pass and gains 7.2 yards per rush attempt on the season with 15 touchdown passes and another four scores on the ground

Running Backs

James Conner – Conner slots in as a highly playable top-shelf running back option who ranks as RB2 by value on DraftKings and RB6 by value on FanDuel while sitting fifth by raw points on both sites. Conner gains 4.5 yards per rush attempt on 15.5 carries per game while adding 3.4 potential touches via targets in the passing game, he has one receiving touchdown on the year to pad his seven rushing touchdowns. Conner is a solid mix-in both as a standalone and in stacks

DeeJay Dallas – Dallas will see backup opportunities with Trey Benson out in Week 16, assuming he suits up, if he plays he is no more than a low-end value dart

Michael Carter – Likely only on the board for backup snaps in the event that Dallas does not play

Receivers & Tight Ends

Trey McBride – Slotting in once again as one of the top tight ends on the slate, McBride’s glaring lack of touchdown output continues to stand out among his peers. The tight end hauls in a solid 6.8 of 8.9 targets, both the volume and the hands are entirely reliable, he simply has not found paydirt this season. McBride gains 8.1 yards per target over a 6.1-yard ADOT and 24.4% of the team’s air yards but he is running out of time to put six on the board in 2024

Marvin Harrison Jr. – Harrison has seven touchdown catches on 6.6 targets per game and dominates the team’s air yards with a massive 43.01% share, he is the clear top option among receivers on this team and is rivaled only by McBride in terms of pairing with Murray, the two can be utilized together on either site in Murray + 2 configurations. Harrison has big play upside on a 13.5-yard average depth of target, he ranks on the second tier of mid-priced receivers overall and is probably best utilized in stacks

Michael Wilson – With 4.3 targets per game and four touchdown catches on the season, Wilson is involved for a fairly low-end option. The receiver ranks as WR37/38 on DraftKings and WR45/42 on FanDuel, which puts him on the outer edges of playability but he does carry big score potential on an 11.3-yard average depth of target

Greg Dortch – No more than a dart throw option with limited appeal on a 4.8-yard ADOT that mandates either a red zone target or a broken play to create a big scoring event

The Cardinals are Stack 6 by points and Stack 3 by value on the DraftKings slate and they slot in as Stack 7 by points and Stack 9 by value on the FanDuel board. Arizona is never the top option on a slate but Murray has at least three excellent skill players at his disposal and the team rarely sits outside of the top-10 while ownership is typically sparse, one could do worse for a tournament stack in Week 16

Atlanta Falcons

Game Total: 43.0 / ATL -10.0 (26.5 imp)

Plays: 44.80% rush / 55.20% pass / 20.9 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 7.7 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.9 ypa rush / 7.7 ypa pass / 23.4 ppg / 9.36% sack / 0.5% int

Key Player: Michael Penix Jr.

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Ray-Ray McCloud III, Kyle Pitts, Tyler Allgeier (on/off), KhaDarel Hodge (Q; large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Tyrone Tracy Jr., Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, Devin Singletary (onoff), Daniel Bellinger

Game Notes:

Quarterback

Michael Penix Jr. – Debut (3-5 for 38 yards in two brief appearances) – QB14 points / QB 1 value DraftKings; QB 14 points / QB 1 value FanDuel – Penix makes his starting debut for Atlanta in the wake of a bad but ultimately predictable breakup with veteran Kirk Cousins who will almost certainly sign his next bad deal with the Giants. Penix has thrown five passes in two appearances, racking up 38 yards and putting no points on the board. Penix was drafted eighth overall out of Washington, where he amassed 4,903 passing yards and 36 touchdown passes with 11 interceptions and another three touchdowns on the ground in his final season. Penix makes for an interesting option in Week 16, he has one of the top matchups in the league if the Falcons can keep him upright against the Giants’ pass rush and he is essentially free on DraftKings at $4,500 while also landing as the top QB value for $6,000 on the blue site

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson – The Giants yield 4.9 yards per rush attempt, one of the league’s worst marks, this should be a field day for Robinson, who ranks as RB2/3 on DraftKings and RB2/5 on FanDuel, he is a leading option for shares both in and out of stacks. The running back gains 4.6 yards per rush attempt and 6.9 yards per target while garnering more than our target of 20 potential touches per week

Tyler Allgeier – The running back continues to find ways to do damage on just 26% of the team’s weekly snaps. Allgeier has three rushing touchdowns while gaining a terrific 4.8 yards per attempt over 8.1 carries per game, his passing game involvement is thin. Allgeier is not a strong option among primary running backs but he is one of the more involved backups and he has big play ability, he is an explosive play or touchdown-dependent dart throw at a position from which we would prefer to draw a clearer path to a ceiling score

Receivers & Tight Ends

Drake London – As WR14 by points and WR21 by value on DraftKings and WR18/20 on the FanDuel slate, London is easily on the board in his rookie quarterback’s debut. The receiver should see plenty of opportunities against a bad Giants’ pass defense that has come away with two interceptions on the season while giving up 7.7 yards per pass and plenty of scoring. London has seven touchdown catches on the board with 7.7 yards per target over a 10.4-yard average depth of target. Nearly 70% of the team’s air yards are split between London and the next receiver, they are easily the top two pairings at the position

Darnell Mooney – Sees a 34.43% air yards share to the 35.19% drawn by London but outstretches his counterpart with a 12.2-yard average depth of target to London’s 10.4. Both receivers have big play upside and Mooney has gotten into the end zone five times on 6.8 targets per game over which he gains a strong 9.2 yards per target. Mooney is WR32/32 on DraftKings and WR33/34 on FanDuel, he is at worst playable in any format on both sites

Ray-Ray McCloud III – McCloud draws at best third billing in this passing attack, he is picking up 5.4 targets per game to outdraw tight end Kyle Pitts but McCloud sees his opportunities on a limiting 6.3-yard average depth of target for just 13.73% of the team’s air yards. He has found the end zone once this season and can occasionally see an additional touch on a rushing play

Kyle Pitts – A top-10 tight end option on the DraftKings slate as TE9 by points and TE6 by value, Pitts is less interesting on the blue site as TE11/10. With 4.6 targets per game and a 16.18% air yards share he is at least playable but three receiving touchdowns this season do not leap off the page as a leading stat. Pitts could see a bit of “security blanket” upside with the rookie at the helm this week but he is mostly a mix-in at the position unless stacked

The Falcons are Stack 8 by points and Stack 5 by value on DraftKings, they rank as Stack 8 by points and Stack 3 by value on the FanDuel slate but there is a significant amount of fragility in those rankings as they ride almost entirely on the performance of Penix. If the rookie fails he could tank the entire stack or it could lead to success for Robinson on a light day for the primary pass-catchers. Atlanta is a strong value option but they will be a highly-owned angle on this slate

Buffalo Bills

Game Total: 46.5 / BUF -14.0 (30.25 imp)

Plays: 47.14% rush / 52.86% pass / 31.8 ppg / 4.6 ypa rush / 7.9 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass / 24.1 ppg / 5.88% sack / 1.39% int

Key Player: Josh Allen

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper, Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman, Ray Davis (on/off), Dawson Knox (on/off), Curtis Samuel (large field), Mack Hollins (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Rhamondre Stevenson, Hunter Henry, Kayshon Boutte, DeMario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, Austin Hooper (on/off), Ja’Lynn Polk (large field)

Game Notes:

Quarterback

Josh Allen – QB2 points / QB 19 value DraftKings; QB2 points / QB9 value FanDuel – Allen and the entire Bills stack are getting more difficult on the pricing end while remaining excellent on the football field and the fantasy scoreboard. The quarterback has 25 touchdown passes against just five interceptions this season and he adds another 11 touchdowns in the rushing game where he gains 5.3 yards per attempt. Allen throws 30.5 passes per game, which is borderline low volume, but he makes it work better than nearly anyone in football, leading the highly efficient Bills attack. Allen is always on the board for a three-plus touchdown day

Running Backs

James Cook – Against a Patriots’ defense that coughs up 4.4 yards per attempt to opposing running backs, James Cook could be an interesting approach to getting Bills into a lineup without stacking the team’s most expensive pieces. Cook costs $7,000 on DraftKings, where he ranks as RB7 by points and RB9 by value, he is RB9 by points but plummets to RB18 by value on FanDuel with a hefty $8,700 price. Cook has been terrific this season, gaining 4.8 yards per rush attempt and punching the ball into the end zone 13 times on the ground and once on a catch, but his volume is a bit light with just 15.9 potential touches per game

Ray Davis and Ty Johnson – split 25% to 30% of the snaps each with Davis posting 4.1 yards per rush attempt on 6.2 carries per game and Johnson gaining 5.3 yards per attempt on 2.1 carries but seeing 1.5 targets to the 1.0 that Davis picks up. In last week’s game, Johnson was targeted five times while slightly out-snapping his teammate but both options are no better than low-end darts who would require a big play touchdown to get interesting

Receivers & Tight Ends

Khalil Shakir – The highest-scoring of the Buffalo receiving group remains their most playable option across the board in Week 16. While Shakir sees just a 4.8-yard average depth of target, the combination of his fantastic hands and steady volume make for a weekly option. The receiver has four touchdown catches while averaging 8.8 yards per target, nearly doubling his ADOT each time he is thrown the ball. Shakir is a solid mixer out of stacks and he is the top pairing option with Allen in +1 or +2 configurations as WR27/28 and WR25/19, his top-20 positional value mark on FanDuel is particularly noteworthy

Amari Cooper – Cooper shockingly went untargeted over 32 snaps and 17 routes run in Week 15 after a solid six catches for 95 yards on 14 targets in Week 14. The Bills’ big pickup has not seen the end zone since Week 7 against Tennessee and has been held to three or fewer catches in four of his last five games. Cooper is a solid mixer with significant big play upside in tandem with Allen, he should not be ignored, he should not be skipped, but he slots in as only a playable option who looks much better in stacks than out of them as WR33/31 and WR35/27

Dalton Kincaid – Kincaid is on the board as a top-10 tight end for both points and value on both sites, he has a fair amount of upside but has only delivered in drips this season with 3.5 catches on 6.0 targets per game and only two touchdown catches. The tight end posts 6.2 yards per target on a 7.7-yard average depth of target but his 13.29% air yards share is similar to all of the receivers but Cooper, who leads the way with a 28.12% share on a 12.3-yard ADOT and 6.7 targets per game. Kincaid is a playable tight end out of stacks but he is probably best deployed in +2 configurations with Allen and a wideout

Dawson Knox, Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, and Mack Hollins – are all on the board as touchdown-dependent dart throw options, they each have at least one touchdown catch this season with Hollins leading the group with five scores. Hollins has big play appeal on an 11.4-yard average depth of target, Coleman’s 14.4-yard mark leads the team but he has managed to score just three times this season. Any of the receivers works in multiple iterations of Buffalo stacks but they are lower-priority low-probability options to differentiate lineups

The Bills are Stack 9 by points and Stack 15 by value on the DraftKings slate and they land as Stack 10 by points and Stack 13 by value on FanDuel with a ceiling that sits quite a bit higher as 14-point favorites with an implied total above 30. Buffalo is always playable, Allen is in play as an expensive pay-up option on any given slate and his receivers are natural pairing options but they are somewhat restrictive to lineup construction as a whole, Buffalo stacks will require higher raw scoring totals than others on this slate

Carolina Panthers

Game Total: 46.5 / CAR +3.5 (21.5 imp)

Plays: 40.51% rush / 59.49% pass / 17.6 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 6.1 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.5 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass / 21.9 ppg / 7.55% sack / 1.60% int

Key Player: Bryce Young

Setting: at least one

Team Group: Chuba Hubbard, Adam Thielen, David Moore (Q; likely), Jalen Coker (Q; expected), Ja’Tavion Sanders, Tommy Tremble (on/off), Mike Boone (on/off), Deven Thompkins (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: James Conner, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Elijah Higgins (on/off)

Game Notes:

Quarterback

Bryce Young – Young slots in as QB17 by points and QB11 by value on DraftKings and QB18/15 on the FanDuel slate, the phrase “fun while it lasted” comes to mind. Young has thrown one touchdown pass in each of his last two games, with three interceptions over that stretch. The quarterback is no more than a low cost dart throw among more value-oriented options in Week 16, his skill players are better than the team is as a whole, after all this is a quarterback who has managed only eight touchdowns and nine interceptions while throwing for 6.0 yards per attempt in a low-end season.

Running Backs

Chuba Hubbard – One of the top running back options of the week, Hubbard faces a beatable Arizona defense that gives up 4.5 yards per rush attempt on the season. The running back has scored eight times and gains 4.6 yards per rush attempt over 16.1 carries and another 3.5 potential touches via targets in the passing game. Hubbard’s volume is at our target threshold for upside, he is on the board as a standalone running back as RB6 by points on both sites, RB4 by value on DraftKings for $6,800, and RB2 by value on FanDuel

Receivers & Tight Ends

Adam Thielen – As WR26/26 and WR27/17 across sites, Thielen checks in as a playable non-priority with a fair amount of volume. The fairly-priced receiver draws 6.3 targets per game and saw seven opportunities last week, he has two touchdown receptions this season but lacks much of a connection with Young, who lacks the ability to deliver the ball effectively. Thielen is best utilized away from his quarterback in the hopes of picking off a low-cost low-owned touchdown.

Jalen Coker – Coker is a mix-in value as WR38/39 and WR36/32, he does not offer much beyond a cheap deep threat who draws a 12.8-yard average depth of target from a quarterback who has difficulty hitting those targets. Coker is coming off of a big week and has two touchdown catches and draws 15.41% of the team’s air yards over 4.0 targets per game. The receiver peaked in Week 15 with 110 yards and a touchdown on 4-6 receiving but his odds of repeating the performance are low and he remains questionable but expected going into Sunday

David Moore – Moore has been up and down the board in recent weeks, he is a non-entity as WR55/53 and WR55/52 in Week 16. The receiver was targeted four times last week, he caught two balls for 19 yards and did not score. Moore has not seen the end zone since Week 12, he is a dart throw at best even with Xavier Legette out this week

Tommy Tremble and Ja’Tavion Sanders – the tight end duo split snaps with Tremble outdrawing Sanders 64-49% last week, they each have one touchdown catch on the season with Tremble picking up 2.9 targets per game and two last week to the 2.8 per game but only one that Sanders saw last week. Overall, Tremble remains the slightly better more involved option but neither tight end has much appeal on this slate

The Panthers are a low-end option from which standalone plays can be plucked, as a stack they rank as just Stack 16 by points and Stack 12 by value on DraftKings, they do show points-per-dollar potential on FanDuel as a unit but rank as just Stack 16 by raw points, putting a bit of fragility into the mix with their Stack 6 value ranking on the FanDuel slate

Chicago Bears

Game Total: 47.0 / CHI +6.5 (20.25 imp)

Plays: 40.97% rush / 59.03% pass / 19.0 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 6.3 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.5 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass / 20.1 ppg / 5.96% sack / 2.86% int

Key Player: Caleb Williams

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: DJ Moore, D’Andre Swift, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, Roschon Johnson (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, Tim Patrick, Craig Reynolds (on/off)

Game Notes:

Quarterback

Caleb Williams – Chicago’s rookie quarterback has mostly alleviated fears in the second half of the season after a bit of a shaky start. After a brutal stretch of four games without a touchdown pass from Week 8 through Week 11, Williams has now thrown for eight touchdowns in the past four games. More impressively, Williams has not thrown an interception since Week 6 and has thrown only five all season against 17 touchdown passes. The quarterback has been only OK for yardage, his 6.3 yards per pass attempt remains fairly unimpressive and he has not done as much on the ground as one might have expected, though his 6.1 yards per attempt is solid he has not hit paydirt on 4.8 attempts per game and averages less than 30 rushing yards per week. Williams is QB12 by points but does climb to QB5 by value on the DraftKings slate and he comes with highly capable skill players to form an appealing and playable value stack, they are slightly less interesting on FanDuel where Williams is QB13 by points and only QB12 by value

Running Backs

D’Andre Swift – As RB17/14 and RB20/15, the limited Swift is only a mixer of a running back again in Week 16. Swift has five rushing touchdowns this season but averages just 3.9 yards per attempt on 15.1 carries per game. The running back adds three targets to his potential touch total but still remains short of the volume goal for upside at the position.

Roschon Johnson – No more than a mixer with 2.9 yards per rush attempt and only 4.4 carries per game, throwing a dart at false upside in his six rushing touchdown total is not advisable

Receivers & Tight Ends

DJ Moore – With 8.0 targets per game and 24.31% of the team’s air yards this season, Moore is a strong option as the first pairing in Williams +1 or +2 stacks. Moore is the best of a strong group of pass-catchers, he has five touchdowns and averages 6.8 yards per target for the season. As WR18/16 on DraftKings and WR21/12 on FanDuel, Moore is playable in and out of stacks, his FanDuel value mark stands out a the position

Keenan Allen – An excellent 1A option to put into +2 stacks or as an alternative in +1 builds with Williams, Keenan Allen slots in as the team leader with six touchdown catches on the season. Allen also now leads the team, slightly outdrawing Moore with 8.1 targets per game, he spiked to 13 targets in Week 15 and sees a slightly bigger potential from his 9.4-yard average depth of target. Allen caught Williams’ lone touchdown pass last week, hauling in six of those 13 targets for 82 yards, he has four touchdowns in the team’s last four games and has been a strong factor in Williams’ breakout

Rome Odunze – The team’s other rookie first rounder leads the receiving group in air yards share with 33.61% on a team-leading 13.8-yard average depth of target over 6.3 opportunities per game. Odunze has three touchdown catches on the season, his lack of reliability makes him a bit under-appreciated by the public, making him more interesting to us as a value play that we continue to highlight for the big play potential

Cole Kmet – As just TE14/16 and TE17/18, Kmet does not rank as an overly appealing tight end option this week, he is somewhat touchdown-dependent with a limited 3.6 targets per game but he does offer solid hands and big play ability on a 7.5-yard ADOT over which he gains 9.1 yards per target. Kmet has three touchdown catches this season, he is slightly better than a positional dart throw out of stacks and is more playable as the back-end of a +2 stack

The Bears are an interesting mixer for value on both sites this week but their public popularity may be outpacing that value as a top-three owned stack. Chicago is Stack 14 by points and Stack 10 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 17 by points and Stack 14 by value on the FanDuel slate

Cincinnati Bengals

Game Total: 47.0 / CIN -8.5 (27.75 imp)

Plays: 35.56% rush / 64.44% pass / 28.5 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass / 25.4 ppg / 7.24% sack / 0.95% int

Key Player: Joe Burrow

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Ja’Marr Chase, Chase Brown, Tee Higgins, Andrei Iosivas, Mike Gesicki, Khalil Herbert (on/off), Drew Sample (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Jerry Jeudy, Jerome Ford, David Njoku, Elijah Moore, Pierre Strong Jr. (on/off)

Game Notes:

Quarterback

Joe Burrow – Burrow leads a nearly unrivaled passing attack that gains 7.5 yards per attempt with the quarterback racking up 36 touchdown passes on 37.64 attempts per game. Between volume and quality it is difficult to find better than Burrow and his top two targets on any given slate, though they fell short in a good-not-great performance in Week 15. Burrow does not add much appeal in the rushing game, he has a touchdown on the board but that is merely happenstance given his 2.5 attempts per game. The Cincinnati quarterback is QB1 by points and QB6 by value on DraftKings and QB1 by points and QB2 by value on the blue site, he is a top-notch option this week and the Bengals are one of the leading stacks in play across sites

Running Backs

Chase Brown – Brown has been one of the most popular running backs in the game over the last few weeks, with good cause given a 93% snap share last week. Brown gains 4.4 yards per rush attempt and adds another 5.5 yards per target with 4.1 targets per game, his 17.7 potential touches each week are slightly short of the mark overall but he carried the ball 25 times last week, the second time in four games that he picked up more than 20 carries. Brown has 11 total touchdowns with four on receptions and seven rushing.

Khalil Herbert – With 3.2 yards per attempt and 1.1 carries per game on the season there is not much to see here, Herbert is no more than a low-end dart throw

Receivers & Tight Ends

Ja’Marr Chase – The top option at wide receiver across the board slots in with 15 touchdown receptions this season. Chase averages 10.2 yards per target on a team-leading 9.9 targets per game, his 33.37% air yards share also leads the Bengals. Chase is expensive but his projection erases any value concerns, he is WR1 by both raw points and value on both sites.

Tee Higgins – As WR8 by points and WR9 by value on DraftKings and WR8/7 on FanDuel, Higgins is not far behind his teammate. The receiver draws 9.0 targets per game as an excellent 1A option with explosive big play ability on a 10.2-yard average depth of target. Higgins has six touchdown catches in nine games this season

Andrei Iosivas – A limited dart throw at a big play touchdown, Iosivas leads the Bengals with an 11.2-yard average depth of target but his 3.6 targets per game limit him to just 15.36% of the air yards share. Iosivas has five touchdown receptions this season but ranks as WR51/46 and WR56/59 in Week 16

Mike Gesicki – While he was technically out-snapped 32% to 68% by Drew Sample in Week 15, Gesicki picked up four targets to Sample’s single opportunity in last week’s game. Gesicki has two touchdowns on an 8.2-yard average depth of target this season, he is a mixer as TE17/15 and TE18/19

The Bengals are our top stack of the week by raw points on both sites, they rank as Stack 2 by value on the DraftKings slate while landing as Stack 1/1 on FanDuel. Pairing Burrow with his top two wide receivers is an obvious but effective approach to a team drawing only mid-level ownership once again. Cincinnati stacks require a bit of a pinch in other lineup spots, given the high cost involved, but they have ceiling potential that only a few passing attacks afford

Cleveland Browns

Game Total: 47.0 / CLE +8.5 (19.25 imp)

Plays: 34.63% rush / 65.37% pass / 17.1 ppg / 4.0 ypa rush / 6.2 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass / 27.6 ppg / 4.98% sack / 2.52% int

Key Player:

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku (Q), Elijah Moore, Jerome Ford (on/off), Michael Woods II (large field), Jordan Akins (onoff), Jamari Thrash (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Ja’Marr Chase, Chase Brown, Tee Higgins, Andrei Iosivas, Mike Gesicki, Khalil Herbert (on/off), Drew Sample (on/off)

Game Notes:

Quarterback

Dorian Thompson-Robinson – The numbers below come across a few scattered appearances this season, Thompson-Robinson completed 11 of 24 passes for 82 yards with two interceptions while playing a season-high 34 snaps in Week 7, he has not seen more than last week’s 13 snaps since. Thompson-Robinson threw an interception and completed just four of his nine attempts for 18 yards in his Week 15 appearance, he has one touchdown pass and seven interceptions on 146 pass attempts over 12 appearances the past two seasons. This is a low-end quarterback option who ranks as QB24 by points and QB12 by value simply because he is low-cost on DraftKings, he is QB24/17 on FanDuel

Running Backs

Jerome Ford – With Nick Chubb unfortunately off the board with another serious injury, Ford should step up as the lead option in Week 16. The running back drew 56% of the snaps last week with Chubb going down during the game, he has a pair of rushing touchdowns on the season and gains 5.2 yards per rush attempt. Ford should do better than his 7.3-attempt average, he also sees chances in the passing game with 3.2 targets in typical action, he could spike to five or more targets in Week 16

Pierre Strong Jr. – No more than a dart throw at a touchdown on limited volume, he has zero touchdowns and gains just 3.6 yards per rush attempt this season

Receivers & Tight Ends

Jerry Jeudy – Despite an apparently middling Madden rating, we have room on the board for Jerry Jeudy more often than not. The receiver has big play ability on a 12.3-yard average depth of target that puts him in the mix for scoring events on a regular basis over a high-value 7.9 targets per game. Jeudy has four touchdowns and dominates the Browns air yards with a 37.9% share. As WR31 by points Jeudy shows more scoring potential than value, he is just WR58 by value on DraftKings and WR34/44 on FanDuel and he will only go as far as the limited quarterback play can carry him

David Njoku – A raw scoring option as TE8 by points but TE17 by value on DraftKings and TE9/15 on FanDuel, Njoku has the same potential limitation from quarterback play even against a Cincinnati defense that allows 7.3 yards per pass and more than 27 points per game. Njoku leads the Browns with 8.7 targets per game but his 5.2-yard average depth of target means he draws most of his potential from red zone opportunities, he has five touchdowns on the season and needs to hit paydirt to function in winning lineups

Elijah Moore – With Cedric Tillman officially out for Week 16, Moore could see a bit of an uptick in opportunities if the Browns are inclined or forced to unleash Thompson-Robinson in a game in which they will almost certainly be trailing throughout. Moore has one touchdown on 6.2 targets per game despite picking up a better ADOT at 9.3 yards than he has in seasons past. Moore has playable volume but the output is questionable with 3.9 catches per game, he ranks at the outer edges of playability but will look slightly better in a morning re-rank on Sunday

Michael Woods II – Woods is another receiver who will pick up a bit of potential volume but there will only be a limited bounce from his current status as WR79/79 and WR86/86

Cleveland is difficult to endorse outside of scrap pieces and parts with Thompson-Robinson at the wheel, not that they were much of a priority previously. Cleveland is Stack 21 by points and Stack 22 by value on DraftKings and Stack 23/24 on FanDuel

Dallas Cowboys

Game Total: 48.0 / DAL +4.0 (22.0 imp)

Plays: 37.24% rush / 62.76% pass / 21.3 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 6.3 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.5 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass / 23.3 ppg / 6.75% sack / 1.33% int

Key Player: Cooper Rush

Setting: exactly one

Team Group: CeeDee Lamb, Rico Dowdle, Jake Ferguson, Brandin Cooks, KaVontae Turpin, Jalen Tolbert, Ezekiel Elliott (on/off), Luke Schoonmaker (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Mike Evans, Bucky Irving, Rachaad White, Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard

Game Notes:

Quarterback

Cooper Rush – Cooper Rush has not been bad over several games for Dallas, he has 10 touchdown passes against three interceptions but has averaged merely 5.7 yards per pass attempt for the year. Rush threw for a season-high three touchdowns in the team’s Week 15 game against Carolina, racking up 214 yards on 18-29 passing. He threw for a season-high 354 yards while completing 32 of 55 attempts but threw just one touchdown and had an interception in Week 11 and saw mixed results in the two games in between. Overall, the quarterback has been slightly less limiting to his receivers than may have been anticipated. Rush still slots in as just QB17/20 on the FanDuel slate, he is not an interesting option outside of a few late night darts or Showdown formats

Running Backs

Rico Dowdle – Continues to lead the way for the Dallas running game, he had a 74% snap share last week and leads the group with 55% on the season. Dowdle is a mid-level talent with a solid 5.0 yards per rush attempt but only one rushing touchdown on the season on just fair volume. The running back picks up 13.6 carries and 3.2 targets per game for mid-level volume, he would benefit from the absence of Ezekiel Elliott, who sees a few chances to continue failing at gaining yards each week. Dowdle is the playable Cowboys running back as RB7/7 on the blue site this week, he is in the mix for shares and is an interesting angle from the late game

Receivers & Tight Ends

CeeDee Lamb -Easily the most appealing piece of the Cowboys, Lamb ranks as WR15 by points and WR30 by value on FanDuel with a clear path to a ceiling score in late night cudgel fashion. Lamb has six touchdown catches this season and has now found the end zone in two straight games after failing to score the first few times out with Rush in charge. Lamb gains 7.6 yards per target and leads the team with 10.3 targets and a 26.84% air yards share, he is an upside play on FanDuel in Week 16

Jake Ferguson – Ferguson is the other premium play from the Dallas passing game. The tight end is TE7 by points but climbs to TE4 by value on FanDuel, he would be truly interesting if he can find his way into the end zone for the first time this season. Ferguson has not scored despite drawing 6.2 targets per game, Dallas has managed to avoid targeting Ferguson in the red zone in any of his last five games and they have looked his way in close situations only five times this season, leading to the lack of output. Still, this is a player who scored five times while gaining 761 yards on 71 catches and 102 targets last season, he has upside on any given slate at just $5,300

Brandin Cooks – WR44/49 and is not much more than a dart throw at a touchdown. Cooks caught a touchdown in each of Weeks 13 and 14, his first two games since Week 4, but he caught just three passes for 16 yards in one of those games and only had the one catch for a three-yard score on three targets in the second. Last week he caught three passes for 34 yards on five targets but failed to score and did not find any DFS value

KaVontae Turpin and Jalen Tolbert – Mix-in wide receivers with big play ability. Turpin has two touchdowns on 3.0 targets per game with explosive ability on shorter targets, while Tolbert is a downfield threat on a 12.0-yard average depth of target. Tolbert has five touchdown catches and ranks second on the team with a 19.33% air yards share over 4.7 targets per game.

The Cowboys rank as Stack 14 by points and Stack 15 by value on the FanDuel slate in Week 16, they are better as a source of individual plays than they are as a stack

Detroit Lions

Game Total: 47.0 / DET -6.5 (26.75 imp)

Plays: 47.71% rush / 52.29% pass / 32.8 ppg / 4.6 ypa rush / 8.5 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 7.7 ypa pass / 22.0 ppg / 7.24% sack / 2.60% int

Key Player: Jared Goff

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, Tim Patrick, Craig Reynolds (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: DJ Moore, D’Andre Swift, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, Roschon Johnson (on/off)

Game Notes:

Quarterback

Jared Goff – One of three quarterbacks on this slate with 30 or more passing touchdowns on the season, Jared Goff slots in as a strong option in a good stack once again in Week 16. Goff’s success comes even with the team putting heavy volume into the rushing game, he throws 31.43 passes per game and completes an excellent 71.0% of them for 8.5 yards per attempt. Goff has excellent weapons in the passing game and on the ground and the team is one of the top scoring offenses in the league. Detroit will see consolidation of rushing attempts with David Montgomery out this week, it remains to be seen if that will lead to a bit of an uptick in passing attempts, either way Goff and his add-ons are one of the top stacks on both sites in Week 16 and the quarterback lands as QB9 by points but QB17 by value on DraftKings while sitting as QB8 by points and QB11 by value on FanDuel

Running Backs

Jahmyr Gibbs – With David Montgomery out of commission, the already fantastic Jahmyr Gibbs could see an uptick in touches and scoring opportunities in Week 16. Gibbs has 11 rushing touchdowns and gains 5.6 yards per rush attempt on 13.3 carries per game while drawing a near-even split with Montgomery, if he picks up eight to 10 additional attempts the sky is the limit. Gibbs also sees action in the passing game with 3.5 targets per game, he drew seven looks via the pass in Week 15 and could see a similar number of targets this week. Gibbs has three receiving touchdowns to give him 14 total as one of the top scoring running backs of the season, he is RB1 in all categories on both sites this week

Craig Reynolds – Should see primary backup duties but this will not be nearly the same split as what Gibbs and Montgomery share, Reynolds would simply be a low-cost touchdown dart and he is not even much of an option for that

Receivers & Tight Ends

Amon-Ra St. Brown – With a team-leading 30.82% air yards share and 10 touchdown catches, St. Brown is one of the best options at his position on any given slate. The receiver is excellent for volume in an average game, he sees 8.3 targets per week but can spike huge upticks like Week 15’s ridiculous 18 targets. St. Brown had a massive day on that volume, catching 14 passes for 193 yards and a touchdown. The receiver failed to score or crack 100 yards over three straight games leading up to last week, he could continue to get back to form with another big game this week as WR4 by points on DraftKings and WR7 by points on FanDuel, though he slips for value somewhat on both sites

Jameson Williams – The team’s big downfield weapon slots in with a 12.3-yard average depth of target over 5.7 targets per game for 29.03% of the air yards and five touchdowns. Williams missed a few games but when he is on the field he is a premium play for ceiling opportunities in GPPs as the always-lower-owned play from the Detroit passing game. Williams is WR29/30 and WR31/25 across sites in Week 16 on what is expected to be single-digit popularity in one of the top-ranked stacks against a Bears defense that allows 7.7 yards per pass attempt

Sam LaPorta – As TE4 by points but TE1 by value, LaPorta is looking like an excellent play on DraftKings, he is not quite that level while maintaining appeal on FanDuel this week as TE6 by points and TE5 by value. LaPorta has five touchdown catches on 4.7 targets per game and should see a bit of a volume uptick with the change to the running game. He was targeted 10 times in Week 15 and caught seven passes for 111 yards. LaPorta has not scored in the past two games but he has seen 17 targets in that span and had three red zone targets in Week 14

Tim Patrick – A mixer play with a bit of involvement, Patrick has a solid 10.0-yard ADOT that can lead to big scoring plays as a forgotten man in the steam stack. Patrick plays 59% of the snaps on average but jumped to an 81% snap share last week and hit the board for value with four catches for 30 yards and a touchdown. Patrick scored twice on six catches for 43 yards in Week 14 against Green Bay, giving him 10 catches for 73 yards and three touchdowns on 15 targets over the team’s last two outings. Patrick is a bit more than a value dart on this slate at essentially zero ownership once again.

The Lions are Stack 3 by points on both sites, they are Stack 4 by value on DraftKings and Stack 2 by value on FanDuel. Detroit offers both individual and stacking value across every position, with multiple options for scoring at a variety of prices. St. Brown, LaPorta, and Gibbs are all spectacular standalone plays in addition to their value in stacks, while Williams is at least a mixer for differentiation in that role while Patrick is more of a dart throw as an individual and probably functions best in stacks

Indianapolis Colts

Game Total: 42.5 / IND -4.5 (23.5 imp)

Plays: 45.72% rush / 54.28% pass / 20.0 ppg / 4.5 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass / 27.1 ppg / 6.36% sack / 2.43% int

Key Player: Anthony Richardson

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, Jonathan Taylor, Alec Pierce, Adonai Mitchell, Ashton Dulin (large field), Kylen Granson/Mo Allie-Cox/Will Mallory (on/off, low-end rotation)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, Tyjae Spears, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Chig Okonkwo, Tyler Boyd

Game Notes:

Quarterback

Anthony Richardson – The Colts are a popular sim and value-based play this week, rendering Anthony Richardson as the one of the three most highly-owned quarterbacks on the slate. Richardson is a wild ride, he has a cannon arm that can deliver huge upside when he connects but he has only thrown seven touchdown passes against 11 interceptions while completing merely 47.0% of his 25.3 pass attempts per game. Richardson adds upside via the rushing game, he gains 5.6 yards per attempt over 7.7 carries per game and has five rushing touchdowns on the season. Richardson is difficult to trust but there is clear value involved if he can approach a ceiling score against a Titans team that has allowed scoring but not much yardage volume this season with 4.1 yards allowed per rush and 6.6 yards allowed per pass attempt but 27.1 points yielded per game. With Alec Pierce out this week, Richardson will be without one of his favorite targets, we prefer to get the quarterback in as a value bid when the field is not covering him in chalk but the Colts are the top value slate on one site and fourth for value on another as a stack. Richardson is QB6 by points and QB2 by value on DraftKings and sits as QB6/3 on the FanDuel slate, he is justifiably popular at $5,400/$7,400

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor – The dominant running back for the Colts sees 18.9 carries and 2.3 targets per game, pushing him above our goal of 20.0 potential touches per week. Taylor has five rushing touchdowns and added another score in the passing game but his output on receptions is limited to 4.9 yards per target. Taylor’s 4.4 yards per rush attempt and the steady volume are the appeal, when he finds the end zone he is capable of pushing his way into winning lineups but he draws more indirect than direct correlation in stacks with Richardson and could be utilized as an alternative approach to value with the Colts as RB8/7 and RB8/9 this week

Trey Sermon – A limited back with 2.8 yards per rush attempt but a pair of rushing touchdowns on 24.0% of the team’s snaps, Sermon is not on the board this week

Receivers & Tight Ends

Michael Pittman Jr. – Pittman is too cheap on DraftKings at just $5,000, his $6,100 FanDuel price is also appealing but it does not spike the WR2 value mark that he sees on DraftKings. Pittman is WR21 by points on DraftKings and WR28 by points on FanDuel, his value mark on the blue site is a strong WR16. Pittman has two touchdown catches on 6.8 targets per game with a solid 11.2-yard average depth of target for the season, his price is down for the lack of touchdowns but the explosive play ability remains for the deep threat and one competitor for those opportunities is off the board with Pierce out

Josh Downs – Downs draws the dirty work duties with just a 7.3 yard average depth of target but he leads the team with 7.8 targets per game. Downs is also the team leader with four touchdown catches this season, he is an explosive option when he gets the ball in his hands but he has not scored since Week 11 and gained just 32 yards on 3-8 receiving in Week 15 at Denver. Downs is a critical piece in Colts stacks when they are utilized but he is also a good example of their middling and perhaps illusory value on this slate as WR30/20 and WR32/22

Adonai Mitchell – Should fill the Pierce role as a downfield threat to complement Pittman this week. Mitchell averages just 5.2 yards per target on 3.5 chances per game but the volume should spike slightly with around 5.0 chances. Mitchell has a 15.74% air yards share on a 14.0-yard average depth of target that leads the active group but falls short of Pierce’s ridiculous 21.4-yard mark

Ashton Dulin – No more than a deep play dart throw with a 19.3-yard average depth of target on under a target per game in normal situations

Drew Ogletree, Mo Alie-Cox, Will Mallory – a three-headed no thank you at tight end. If you have to play one, Alie-Cox is the right answer

The Colts are a premium but popular value play that is working its way through the numbers across the industry this week, they rank as Stack 10 by raw points but leap to Stack 1 by value on DraftKings and rank similarly as Stack 11 by points but Stack 4 by value on the deeper FanDuel slate

Jacksonville Jaguars

Game Total: 41.0 / JAC +2.0 (19.5 imp)

Plays: 40.45% rush / 59.55% pass / 18.8 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass / 26.9 ppg / 6.64% sack / 1.78% int

Key Player: Mac Jones

Setting: exactly one

Team Group: Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Etienne Jr., Brenton Strange, Parker Washington, Josh Reynolds, Tank Bigsby (on/off), Devin Duvernay (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one

Opposing Group: Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers, Alexander Mattison, Ameer Abdullah, Tre Tucker, Michael Mayer

Game Notes:

Quarterback

Mac Jones – At the absolute best, Mac Jones has had mixed results this season. The quarterback is completing 66.0% of his passes and has thrown for 235, 220, and 294 yards in his past three games, but he has four touchdown passes against seven interceptions this season. Jones completed 31 of 46 attempts for 294 yards while throwing two touchdowns but also two interceptions against the Jets last week, with rookie sensation Brian Thomas Jr. hauling in 10 receptions including both touchdowns. Jones is a low-end option as QB23/20 and QB23/24, any quality he has in this passing game is best extracted via individual shares of Thomas in non-stacked lineups

Running Backs

Travis Etienne Jr. – A low-volume low-quality mixer from the mid-range, Etienne slots in as RB15/15 and RB19/16 this week. The running back has two rushing touchdowns while gaining 4.0 yards per attempt on 9.4 carries per game and 4.4 yards per target on 3.5 weekly chances in the passing attack. Etienne has been limited with just 1.8 yards per attempt after contact this season and his lack of potential touches is difficult to justify rostering, particularly with more effective Tank Bigsby looming

Tank Bigsby – The running back who should be on top for Jacksonville is gaining 4.9 yards per rush attempt on 10.1 carries per game this season. Bigsby has five rushing touchdowns but sees basically no involvement in the passing game. Bigsby is a mixer with touchdown-scoring potential, he found the end zone in Week 14 on 18 carries but failed to score on 11 attempts last week

Receivers & Tight Ends

Brian Thomas Jr. – Thomas had a big Week 15 performance as an ideal bring-back option on the other side of Rodgers-Adams-Wilson stacks in the Jets vs Jaguars game last week, he could deliver similar potential for scoring as an individual play in Week 16 but the bring-back play is not on the board with a low-end Las Vegas opponent. Thomas has eight touchdowns on 7.1 targets per game to lead the team in his rookie season. No other active receiver on the Jaguars has more than two touchdown catches this season and Thomas is dominating air yards with a 28.6% share as well. Thomas is an excellent option as WR11/7 on DraftKings and WR9/5 on FanDuel this week

Brenton Strange – Strange picked up a whopping 12 targets as a value option last week on a team that targets regular starter Evan Engram excessively at the position. Strange caught 11 of those targets for 73 yards but did not score last week. The tight end is a low-cost $3,500 play on DraftKings and a $5,200 option on FanDuel but he ranks as just TE12/12 and TE12/11 across sites and has limited potential

Parker Washington – Despite being cheap, Washington’s appeal is virtually nil in Week 16. The receiver was targeted six times in Week 15 and caught three passes for 54 yards, he had two catches for 15 yards in Week 14 on the heels of a big Week 13 performance in which he caught six passes for 103 yards and a touchdown. Other than that performance, Washington has not had more than three catches in any game this season, he has just the one touchdown grab all year

Josh Reynolds and Devin Duvernay – Mix-in dart throws with big play ability on 11.7 and 12.6-yard average depths of target but limited options at 3.3 and 1.4 targets per game. Reynolds has a touchdown catch this season, Duvernay does not, but Duvernay saw four targets to Reynolds’ single look last week

The Jaguars lack group appeal as Stack 19/19 and Stack 21/20 across DraftKings and FanDuel

Las Vegas Raiders

Game Total: 41.0 / LV -2.0 (21.5 imp)

Plays: 34.59% rush / 65.41% pass / 17.5 ppg / 3.6 ypa rush / 6.5 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 8.3 ypa pass / 26.9 ppg / 5.23% sack / 1.06% int

Key Player: Aidan O’Connell

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers, Alexander Mattison, Ameer Abdullah, Tre Tucker, Michael Mayer

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Etienne Jr., Brenton Strange, Parker Washington, Josh Reynolds, Tank Bigsby (on/off), Devin Duvernay (large field)

Lineup Notes:

Quarterback

Aidan O’Connell – The late stages of NFL seasons bring mix-in quarterbacks to bear for DFS slates, Aidan O’Connell has been a part of that over the past season-plus. O’Connell threw 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions on 213-343 passing in 11 games last season but has been limited to just 136 attempts across six games in random action this year. The quarterback completed 63.2% of those attempts for 899 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions and has a rushing touchdown on the board despite extremely limited volume on the ground. O’Connell is not a high-end play but he has two capable targets in Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers and he lands cheap as QB13 by points but QB3 by value for just $5,100 on DraftKings. On FanDuel, the Raiders’ quarterback is QB12 by points and QB7 by value

Running Backs

Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah – Neither running back is appealing. Abdullah led the team with a 46.0% snap share to Mattison’s 33.0% share last week and scored on one of his seven receptions for 58 yards but he carried the ball just three times for eight yards. Mattison played 21 snaps but carried the ball only seven times for 21 yards, he was targeted four times and caught two passes for three yards. Mattison has not scored since Week 6, though he technically ranks inside the top-15 for running back value on FanDuel

Receivers & Tight Ends

Jakobi Meyers – Meyers is once again showing strong value potential across sites as WR4 by points-per-dollar on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Week 16. Meyers has only caught two touchdown passes this season but that is more a product of the offense than the receiver. At worst, the 8.8 targets per game are well worth the $5,800/$6,700 price tag across sites. Meyers has a 32.91% air yards share on an 8.9-yard ADOT that puts him close to big play range, he is an interesting receiver at these prices and comes with a fair amount of touchdown potential

Brock Bowers – The rookie tight end has been a positional standout both for DFS and for real life football output this season. Bowers has four touchdown catches on 8.9 targets per game over a 24.6% air yards share, his volume thrusts him to TE2 by points and TE5 by value on DraftKings and he is a go-to play in and out of stacks on FanDuel as the top-ranked tight end in both points and value for $7,700 but he has been limited to just three catches and under 50 yards while failing to score in each of the last two games

Tre Tucker – Tucker is a mix-in receiver with a solid 11.7-yard average depth of target for big scoring play potential at a cheap price and virtually no public exposure, he is an effective differentiator but would be better in stacks that we are likely not playing. Tucker has two touchdowns on the season but draws just 4.6 shaky targets per game and can dip as he did with just three chances in Week 15, he is WR44/42 and WR49/45 across sites and sits poolside at the abyss of playability

Michael Mayer – TE13 by points but TE4 by value on DraftKings but TE14/12 on FanDuel, Mayer is a different option across sites this week. The second-string option at the position still sees a 60% snap share in his active games and played 70% of the team’s snaps while drawing two targets last week and 3.1 on average for the year. Mayer is yet to score and operates on a limited 6.5-yard average depth of target but had an outlier seven-catch 68-yard performance on nine targets two weeks ago

Terrace Marshall Jr. – Exactly one catch for under 10 yards on exactly one target in each of the last two games.

The Raiders are Stack 12 by points and Stack 7 by value with O’Connell in the mix this week, they are Stack 13 by points and Stack 8 by value on the FanDuel slate, if they are utilized then the Brian Thomas Jr. bring-back play should be in effect in most stacks

Los Angeles Rams

Game Total: 47.0 / LAR -3.0 (25.0 imp)

Plays: 43.17% rush / 56.83% pass / 22.1 ppg / 3.9 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 23.2 ppg / 8.26% sack / 0.92% int

Key Player: Matthew Stafford

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams, Demarcus Robinson, Tyler Higbee, Colby Parkinson (on/off), Tutu Atwell (large field), Blake Corum (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Allen Lazard, Tyler Conklin, Braelon Allen (on/off)

Lineup Notes:

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford – Stafford leads one of the more highly-projected stacks of the week and lands as QB10 by points on both sites while vaulting to QB8 by value on DraftKings and QB6 by value on the FanDuel slate. Stafford has thrown 19 touchdown passes against seven interceptions in a season that was limited by the absence of his two prime receivers. Stafford had a bad week against the 49ers in Week 15, completing 16 of 27 attempts for 160 yards but zero touchdowns, he had thrown exactly two touchdown passes in each of three straight games and had a four-touchdown day prior to that stretch. Stafford threw for more than 290 yards but less than 300 yards in Weeks 9 through 11 and cracked the 300-yard mark with 320 and two touchdowns on 23-30 passing in Week 14. Stafford is highly playable in +1 or +2 stacks with his two top receivers in Week 16 but he is facing a strong Jets pass rush and a defense that allows just 6.9 yards per pass attempt and 4.1 yards per rush

Running Backs

Kyren Williams – Williams benefitted from volume with a lack of options in the passing attack earlier in the season before taking a bit of a dip from Week 10 through Week 13 before roaring back with 29 carries in each of the past two games. For the season, Williams averages 22.6 potential touches which is necessary because he gains just 4.0 yards per rush and 4.4 yards per target. Williams has a dozen rushing touchdowns and a pair of receiving touchdowns this season, he has been an undeniable force but can disappear on any given slate. He is RB10/12 on DraftKings and RB10/17 on FanDuel and is equal parts playable and skippable both in and out of stacks

Blake Corum – Corum has 19 carries over the past three games combined, with Williams picking up 29 in each of the past two the volume split seems clear, giving Corum little to no value

Receivers & Tight Ends

Puka Nacua – As WR2 by points on both sites and WR5 by value on DraftKings and WR2 by value on FanDuel, Nacua once again comes in as a strong play for standalone or stacking shares, he is the lead option for +1 stacks with Stafford and makes an excellent lead in +2 configurations with Cooper Kupp not ranking far behind. Nacua has three touchdown receptions on the season and hauls in 6.8 of 9.2 targets per game for 9.7 yards per target on a 9.1-yard average depth, he is a rook on the football chess board making big steady gains in outbursts of offense

Cooper Kupp – Kupp slots in as WR12/13 on DraftKings but just WR13/26 on FanDuel against a higher relative price at $8,300 on the blue site. Kupp has six touchdown catches on 9.4 targets per game but saw just three opportunities to Nacua’s eight in the low-end game last week. Kupp should return to volume and form in Week 16 against a pass defense that can be beat, he is an excellent +2 option and can easily be rostered in place of Nacua in +1 configurations as the slightly lower-priced option. Neither receiver is slated for significant popularity, making them both interesting tournament mixers across sites in standalone shares

Demarcus Robinson – Robinson has been targeted just once in each of the past two games and failed to haul in either opportunity after back-to-back games with touchdown catches. Robinson was an interesting mix-in for a deep threat option behind Nacua and Kupp, he caught two passes in each of the games in which he scored, but his overall limitations are glaring as they are for everyone further down the depth chart, given the volume required by Williams, Nacua, and Kupp, plus the return of tight end Tyler Higbee

Tyler Higbee – as TE25/25 and TE27/23, Higbee is not showing obvious upside on this slate, but if he is truly back to form he could have at least some scoring potential, he had two touchdowns on 47 catches last season

The Rams are Stack 4 by points and Stack 8 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 4 by points and Stack 11 by value on FanDuel this week and should be played on both sites if building a full portfolio of lineups. In limited shares, the Rams offer plenty of options for individual performance, including Nacua and Kupp, but not forgetting Williams, given the return to volume.

Miami Dolphins

Game Total: 45.0 / MIA -1.0 (23.0 imp)

Plays: 36.23% rush / 63.77% pass / 20.2 ppg / 4.2 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass / 22.9 ppg / 7.81% sack / 2.66% int

Key Player: Tua Tagovailoa

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Tyreek Hill (Q; likely), De’Von Achane, Jonnu Smith, Raheem Mostert (on/off), Malik Washington, River Cracraft (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Jauan Jennings, Deebo Samuel Sr., Patrick Taylor Jr., George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall

Lineup Notes:

Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa – Miami carries a 23.0-point implied team total into action in a 45.0-point game as one-point favorites against a tough San Francisco team that just limited the Rams’ similar attack last week. Miami will slot in with Jaylen Waddle sidelined, taking a prime weapon away from quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The signal-caller ranks as QB16 by points on both sites, he is QB16 by value on DraftKings and slips to QB21 by points-per-dollar on the blue site. Tagovailoa has thrown 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions while completing 74.0% of his passes for 7.3 yards per attempt this season, he has not been bad when he has been active but the matchup against a defense allowing just 6.6 yards per pass attempt is far from ideal. San Francisco has an aggressive pass rush and a solid secondary, they should not be targeted with many Dolphins shares this week

Running Backs

De’Von Achane – The formerly explosive running back is averaging just 3.9 yards per rush attempt on 11.8 carries per game this season. With Raheem Mostert also limited for output the Dolphins ground game has failed to find any DFS footing this season. Achane has four rushing touchdowns but does spike potential in the passing game, keeping him alive in rankings as RB9 by points and RB13 by value on DraftKings and RB11/11 on FanDuel. The running back has six touchdown receptions on 5.6 targets per game, which he needs to make even base playability

Raheem Mostert – If Achane has been disappointing, Mostert has been a disaster with just 3.4 yards per rush attempt on 7.1 carries per game and two rushing touchdowns on the season. Mostert lacks his counterpart’s upside in the passing game, giving him an extremely thin lane to any expectations of success. Mostert is RB28/28 and RB31/31 and is essentially off the board outside of lottery shares this week

Receivers & Tight Ends

Tyreek Hill – The wrist injury that is bothering Tyreek Hill is not expected to keep him out of action this week, thrusting him into a prominent role with Jaylen Waddle doubtful to play. Hill draws 7.4 targets per game and could spike to double-digits in Week 16. Hill has a dominant 39.64% air yards share on an 11.4-yard average depth of target, he is a big play receiver with strong upside in normal situations but the lack of secondary options to draw coverage against a good defense is concerning for Hill’s ceiling

Jonnu Smith – One of the top-scoring tight ends of the season, Smith slots in as TE6 by points on DraftKings and TE4 by points on FanDuel but slips to TE13 and TE8 by value on the respective sites. Smith has six touchdown catches to lead the active group of receivers, only Smith, Hill, and Achane have touchdown catches this season among the active skill players

Malik Washington – With just a 3.9-yard average depth of target and 2.0 targets per game it has been difficult for Washington to create any fantasy scoring. The receiver could see better quality of opportunities and an increased role in the offense this week but he is not much more than a dart throw against a good defense on a deep slate with plenty of better options. Washington did catch five of six targets for 52 yards in a Week 15 outburst, he would see more potential for a touchdown and a truly significant DFS day if both Hill and Waddle are out, with Hill active he is more of a dart throw play

River Cracraft – Played 21 snaps and ran 16 routes in Week 15, was targeted one time and caught that pass for six yards. All of these are season-highs. Has the chance to repeat this performance or even double it but not much more outside of a lottery touchdown

Miami is Stack 11 by points and Stack 16 by value on DraftKings and Stack 12/18 on FanDuel, they are not an appealing play against the 49ers

Minnesota Vikings

Game Total: 42.5 / MIN -3.0 (22.75 imp)

Plays: 45.12% rush / 54.88% pass / 26.4 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 8.4 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 22.4 ppg / 6.44% sack / 2.37% int

Key Player: Sam Darnold

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones Sr., Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, Cam Akers (on/off), Josh Oliver (on/off), Jalen Nailor (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Kenneth Walker III, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DK Metcalf, Zach Charbonnet, Noah Fant, Tyler Lockett

Lineup Notes:

Quarterback

Sam Darnold – Prior to the season, no one would have found it particularly surprising to hear that Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, and Baker Mayfield had 30 or more touchdown passes heading into Week 16, what would have caused people to doubt your sanity would have been declaring that Sam Darnold would be the next man on the list with 29 touchdown passes over the season’s first 15 weeks. Darnold has been excellent throughout the season, he is completing 67.0% of 30.43 passes per game for 8.3 yards per attempt. The quarterback has not been flawless, he has thrown 11 touchdowns on the season but the good has far outweighed the bad, particularly for lower-owned DFS value. Darnold is QB4 by points and QB9 by value on DraftKings, he is QB5 in both categories on the FanDuel slate and is once again a strong option

Running Backs

Aaron Jones Sr. – The veteran running back is having another strong season with 4.6 yards per rush attempt on 15.4 carries per game and 7.0 yards per target on 3.3 opportunities via the pass each week. Jones Sr.’s 18.7 potential touches per game are close enough for our purposes in terms of opportunities, he has five rushing touchdowns and a pair of touchdown catches on the year and has been steady both before and after contact with 2.5 yards per attempt before and 2.1 after, showing a bit of bounce remains in the aging legs. Jones is RB11/10 on DraftKings and RB13/12 on FanDuel in Week 16, he is playable in standalone shares or for direct and indirect correlation in stacks

Cam Akers – The second-stringer picks up around a quarter of the snaps each week and has only limited low-end appeal as a dart at a touchdown. Akers has two rushing and two receiving scores this season but gains just 3.9 yards per rush attempt and 3.8 per target

Receivers & Tight Ends

Justin Jefferson – A tremendous lead receiver, Jefferson is third in points on both sites but dips a bit against value measurements at a high sticker price. Jefferson is worth the effort in all formats, the receiver has eight touchdown catches on a team-leading 8.6 targets per game and dominates the skies with 38.89% of the air yards. Jefferson’s 11.6-yard ADOT sits second to Jordan Addison’s 13.3-yard mark, both receivers are excellent downfield weapons both for the Vikings and for DFS gamers, their explosive scoring ability puts them on the board for individual shares or stacking in +1 or +2 configurations

Jordan Addison – Addison’s 13.3-yard average target shapes high-scoring potential and he has delivered seven touchdown catches on 6.4 targets per game this season. The 1A receiver is a terrific option who can be rostered with Darnold in +1 configurations as a Jefferson pivot or alongside Jones Sr. or the team’s tight end in alternative stacks, though the top approach is Darnold+Jefferson+Addison, naturally.

TJ Hockenson – The tight end ranks as a top-5 option across the board on both sites this week against a defense allowing just 6.9 yards per pass attempt on the season. Hockenson has yet to score in his limited action this season but he draws 6.1 targets per game on a 7.7-yard average depth of target that makes him a weapon in all areas of the field, scoring is a matter of time. Hockenson is easy to reach at a fair price on both sites, he is TE5 by points on DraftKings and FanDuel while landing as TE3 by value on the former and TE2 by value on the latter

Josh Oliver – Oliver drops significantly in value and scoring potential from where we find Hockenson, he has three touchdowns on the season but draws limited targets with Hockeson back in the mix

Jalen Nailor – The depth receiver has an excellent 11.2-yard average depth of target and one of the better touchdown totals among low-owned low-cost receivers with five notches on his belt. Nailor last scored in Week 12, he has two catches on three total targets in three games since and has not been above four catches of 76 yards in a game this season despite a few big plays

The Vikings are showing strong raw scoring potential as a pay-up stack this week, they are Stack 5 by points but Stack 11 by value on DraftKings and Stack 6/10 on the FanDuel slate

New England Patriots

Game Total: 46.5 / NE +14.0 (16.25 imp)

Plays: 43.06% rush / 56.94% pass / 17.0 ppg / 4.6 ypa rush / 6.2 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass / 22.1 ppg / 6.25% sack / 2.71% int

Key Player: Drake Maye

Setting: exactly one

Team Group: Rhamondre Stevenson, Hunter Henry, Kayshon Boutte, DeMario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, Austin Hooper (on/off), Ja’Lynn Polk (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper, Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman, Ray Davis (on/off)

Game Notes:

Quarterback

Drake Maye – After a decent start to his career, Maye has thrown exactly one touchdown and one interception in each of the past three games with between 202 and 238 passing yards. Maye has a dozen touchdown passes on the board but has also thrown nine interceptions while averaging just 6.8 yards per pass attempt, his two rushing touchdowns only do so much to pad his upside. Maye ranks as QB21/22 on both sites and has essentially no appeal on this slate

Running Backs

Rhamondre Stevenson – As RB18/21 and RB23/23, there is limited opportunity for Stevenson to provide DFS glory in Week 16. The running back is gaining just 3.8 yards per rush attempt but has scored seven times, six on rushing plays. Stevenson is at best a mix-in value on a team that has leaned into the pass with Maye running the show

Receivers & Tight Ends

Hunter Henry – Henry is the team’s leader with 6.2 targets per game but he has scored only once this season. Henry is TE10/10 and TE10/6 across sites, his appeal is moderate at best

Kayshon Boutte – One touchdown catch on 4.1 targets per game for the season but an appealing-in-context 15.1-yard average depth of target that puts him in big play range. Boutte is WR46/34 and WR43/38 across sites.

DeMario Douglas – Two touchdown catches despite an ongoing presence as a top-two receiver for this team all season. Douglas draws 5.2 targets per game, second-best in New England this year, but his 14.8% air yards share and 6.0-yard average depth of target do him no favors for DFS point creation

Kendrick Bourne – One touchdown on 3.3 targets per game but a 9.6-yard average depth of target, extremely thin as a value option and not really playable outside of lottery tickets

Austin Hooper – The team leader with three touchdown catches despite just 3.2 targets per game, limited appeal as TE20/20 and TE20/21

The Patriots continue to be a weak option, they are Stack 22/21 and Stack 24/22 across sites, they do not offer much for standalone play either

New York Giants

Game Total: 43.0 / NYG +10.0 (16.5 imp)

Plays: 39.51% rush / 60.49% pass / 14.9 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 5.7 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 24.4 ppg / 4.68% sack / 1.92% int

Key Player: Drew Lock

Setting: exactly one

Team Group: Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Daniel Bellinger, Jalin Hyatt (large field), Devin Singletary (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Ray-Ray McCloud III, Kyle Pitts, Tyler Allgeier (on/off)

Lineup Notes:

Quarterback

Drew Lock – At least with all the airborne activity in the area, the Giants can blame bad home passing performances on drone lights getting in player’s eyes, but on the road in Atlanta against a middling defense they will have no excuses other than a near-total lack of talent on offense. Quarterback Drew Lock slots in for another start, he has zero touchdown passes and two interceptions while gaining 4.6 yards per pass attempt and has run one ball into the end zone in limited action for a terrible team this season. Lock is playing out the string on a team that is fighting for the top draft pick again after, hopefully, learned a lesson about winning these games last year, there is no expectation of competitiveness from New York in this game and the quarterback is QB20 by points and QB7 by value just because he is cheap on DraftKings, Lock is QB20/13 on the FanDuel slate, any appeal he provides would be driven entirely by Malik Nabers

Running Backs

Tyrone Tracy Jr. – New York landed on a solid unheralded rookie running back with Tyrone Tracy Jr. posting 4.6 yards per rush attempt on 10.8 carries and scoring five times in moderate action so far this season. Tracy has explosive big play upside and has broken a few for solid gains as his role increased through the season. The running back is solid in the passing game as well, drawing 3.1 targets per game and catching 2.1 of those for 5.0 yards per target, though he has yet to score on a catch. Tracy is a mixer as RB22/23 and RB24/24, he is not particularly cheap and gets his work done as part of a bad offense

Devin Singletary – Drew just 34.0% of the snaps in Week 15 and has been relegated to backup status behind Tracy. Singletary was unappealing as a starter, he has no value beyond touchdown darts on the Week 16 slate, the eight carries he picked up last week were a high since Week 4, though he did punch in his first touchdown since Week 12

Receivers & Tight Ends

Malik Nabers – Nabers broke a long string of touchdown-free football with a score in Week 15 against Baltimore, he now has four touchdown catches on the season while drawing a huge share of the targets with 11.7 per game and 14 last week. Nabers sees 40.4% of the team’s air yards on his 9.4-yard average depth of target, the next-highest mark is 24.94% to Darius Slayton on a 13.1-yard ADOT but only 5.0 targets per game. Nabers is by far the top option for any shares of the Giants offense, he is WR10 by points but WR3 by value on DraftKings but is a different play on the FanDuel slate as WR11 by points but WR21 by value

Wan’Dale Robinson – The team’s second-highest target share goes to Robinson, but the nature of his targeting is limiting for DFS appeal, given a 5.1-yard average depth of target. Robinson has two touchdown grabs this season but needs red zone looks or a broken play from an offense that rarely gets past the opposing 35 or blocks effectively

Darius Slayton – Slayton’s excellent ADOT leads the team’s regular receivers and sits second only to limited Jalin Hyatt’s 18.4-yard mark on 1.2 targets per game. Slayton has one touchdown catch this season, he hauls in 2.8 of 5.0 targets per game on average and is a very low-end mixer from the outer regions of the playability spectrum as WR52/49 and WR62/60 across sites. Hyatt is not a playable option outside of desperate already-played scratcher level lottery ticket action

The Giants are almost entirely without appeal as Stack 20 by points and Stack 13 by value on DraftKings, they are even worse as Stack 22/21 on FanDuel this week

New York Jets

Game Total: 47.0 / NYJ +3.0 (22.0 imp)

Plays: 36.23% rush / 63.77% pass / 20.2 ppg / 4.2 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.6 ypa rush / 7.8 ypa pass / 24.1 ppg / 6.80% sack / 2.59% int

Key Player: Aaron Rodgers

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Allen Lazard, Braelon Allen, Tyler Conklin, Xavier Gipson (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams, Demarcus Robinson, Tyler Higbee, Colby Parkinson (on/off), Tutu Atwell (large field), Blake Corum (on/off)

Game Notes:

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers – The Jets have a 22.0-point implied team total as 3.0-point underdogs in a 47.0-point game against a high-quality Rams passing attack that could trigger a bit of a shootout if Aaron Rodgers is game for it again in Week 16. Rodgers completed 16 of 30 attempts for 289 yards and threw three touchdown passes last week as a strong DFS play with two high-quality pass catchers in tow, he could repeat the trick this week with the cooperative Rams defense allowing 7.8 yards per pass and 24.1 points per game on the season. Rodgers has thrown 23 touchdown passes and only eight interceptions but his limitation comes from 6.7 yards per pass attempt overall. The quarterback and Davante Adams have been back to their old tricks like Mike McD and Worm (or Clyde and Earl Monroe to take Mike’s reference) cutting up a card table, connecting for four touchdowns in the past three games. Adams had a huge day last week and could be in line for more on steady volume. Rodgers is QB15 by points and QB10 by value on DraftKings, he is QB15/16 on the FanDuel slate but the pull of his more highly-ranked receivers could help him climb the board in a hurry again

Running Backs

Breece Hall has been diminished somewhat with just a 48.0% snap share last week and 13.3 carries per game overall. The running back is gaining merely 4.2 yards per rush attempt and has scored five times on the ground with another two touchdowns on catches. Hall’s volume spikes with 4.9 targets per game, putting him around our goal of 20 potential touches but the output has been problematic and he has not seen 20 carries in a single game all season or more than 12 in either of the last two outings. Hall is RB12/8 on DraftKings and RB15/22 on FanDuel, he is far more playable on the former than the latter

Isaiah Davis and Braelon Allen split snaps 41% to 17% last week, with Davis seeing an uptick after a 10-carry 40-yard performance with a touchdown the week before. Davis and Allen are low-end darts who lack true volume or ceiling potential unless something happens above them on the depth chart

Receivers & Tight Ends

Davante Adams – One of the top options again this week, Adams slots in as WR5 by points and WR6 by value on DraftKings and WR5/11 on FanDuel. The receiver caught nine passes on 12 targets last week, gaining 198 yards and scoring twice in a slate-bending performance. Adams had a touchdown in each of the games in the two weeks ahead of last week’s outburst, including nine catches for 109 yards and a score in Week 14. The receiver is back to superstar status and he could have a clear path to a repeat performance against a middling Rams defense in what could be an underrated shootout spot

Garrett Wilson – Wilson had 114 yards on seven catches in Week 14 but dipped to just 56 yards on three catches next to Adams’ big day last week. Still, Wilson managed to gain relevance by hauling in a touchdown pass and he went for 56 yards on the three catches he made over six targets. Wilson is an excellent weapon with a 9.6-yard average depth of target for 37.42% of the air yards, he and Adams are tied with six touchdowns each but Adams has picked up four of his in the past three games as the clear top option for their quarterback, Wilson is a strong 1A

Allen Lazard – Lazard slots in as just WR54/56 and WR57/56 but he will continue to have touchdown-scoring potential on any given slate. The veteran went without a catch despite drawing four targets on 28 routes and 42 snaps in Week 15, he caught one ball for 18 yards in his Week 14 return to action but had five touchdown catches in the team’s first six games of the season

Tyler Conklin – Conklin shows a bit of points-per-dollar value as TE8 by value on DraftKings, he is not much more than a dart throw in any situation. The tight end has two touchdown catches on 4.2 targets per game but operates on a limiting 4.9-yard average depth of target. Conklin is a low-end mixer who would only find true value if he manages to haul in an unlikely touchdown pass

The Jets are Stack 7 by points and Stack 6 by value on DraftKings where the receiving group remains affordable, they are Stack 9 by points but fall to Stack 16 by value on the FanDuel slate

Philadelphia Eagles

Game Total: 45.0 / PHI -3.5 (24.25 imp)

Plays: 56.35% rush / 43.65% pass / 26.4 ppg / 5.1 ypa rush / 8.0 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.8 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass / 22.5 ppg / 8.06% sack / 1.25% int

Key Player: Jalen Hurts

Setting: at most two / at least one (this allows for both “naked” Jalen Hurts lineups and multi-player stacks, utilize with max/min exposure rules)

Team Group: Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Grant Calcaterra, Jahan Dotson, Kenneth Gainwell (on/off), Ainias Smith (large field), Johnny Wilson (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Brian Robinson Jr., Terry McLaurin, Dyami Brown, Olamide Zaccheaus, Ben Sinnott, Jeremy McNichols (on/off), Jamison Crowder (large field)

Lineup Notes:

Quarterback

Jalen Hurts – Excellent Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts answered a ridiculous media narrative last week with a passing attack outburst that saw him deliver 25 of 32 attempts for 290 yards and a pair of touchdown passes, with both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith benefitting. Brown caught eight passes for 110 yards and a touchdown and Smith hauled in 11 of 12 targets for 109 yards and a score. With both receivers in play, Hurts only had time to add one rushing touchdown to his ongoing tally, bringing him to 14 on the season to go with 18 passing touchdowns against only five interceptions. Now that the nitpicking has been quieted, we hope that proper recognition of the league’s best offense is restored. Philadelphia has been among the top few stacks for raw scoring on every slate this season, little changes this week and Hurts is a huge part of the team’s potential as QB2 by points and QB9 by value on DraftKings and QB2/7 on the FanDuel slate

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley – Barkley has been over the 100-yard mark in nine games this season, averaging a ridiculous 120.6 per game and 5.9 per attempt on 20.4 carries this year. The superstar running back is nearly unstoppable on the field, he adds touches via 2.9 targets in the passing attack, hailing in 2.2 of those for 6.9 yards per target and an additional two scores to go with his 11 rushing touchdowns. Barkley gained 65 yards on 19 carries last week and added nine yards on two catches in one of his more pedestrian performances with the focus on the passing game, he should come rampaging back to life against a targetable Washington defense that allows 4.8 yards per rush attempt this season. Barkley is RB3 by points on both sites, he is RB6 by value on DraftKings and RB8 in that category on FanDuel

Kenneth Gainwell – No more than a quality value mixer with limited volume issues. Gainwell sees just 4.1 attempts and 1.1 targets per game, leaving him about 15 potential touches short of our goal. The running back gains a solid 4.6 yards per attempt but he has only found the end zone once and is a big heavy dart where we do not want to throw a dart at all

Receivers & Tight Ends

AJ Brown – Part of the run-up to last week’s big performances was a bit of a dearth of scoring output between AJ Brown and Devonta Smith this season, they now stand at five and six touchdown catches respectively but remain lethal on any given slate, as they just demonstrated. Brown is the preferred between the two, though he comes at a higher price. He has a 36.95% air yards share on 7.0 targets to Smith’s 26.56% share on 6.7 targets, with the difference coming from a 12.4-yard ADOT for Brown outstretching the 9.2-yard mark set by Smith. Both receivers are strong options to pair with Hurts on any slate, putting them in lineups with Hurts and Barkley is expensive but high-end, and stacking both receivers is another high-quality approach that would have paid dividends in last week’s game

DeVonta Smith – Another premium 1A option, Smith is WR16/11 on DraftKings and WR20/29 on FanDuel this week. The receiver has scored six times this year to lead the team’s pass-catching group, his 12 targets led last week’s air raid. Smith is an easily playable option who could go overlooked, even within Eagles stacks, by comparison to Brown

Grant Calcaterra – Continues to get the lead tight end opportunities with Dallas Goedert out. Calcaterra is just TE18/19 and TE15/14 across sites, he has one touchdown on limited volume at 1.7 targets per game for the season and saw just one chance in this role in last week’s game

Jahan Dotson, Ainias Smith, Johnny Wilson – All three receivers are limited, only Wilson has a touchdown this season but Dotson leads the group with 1.6 targets per game. None of them saw more than one target last week.

The Eagles are Stack 2 by points and Stack 9 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 2 by points and Stack 7 by value on the FanDuel slate and should be prioritized in a high-quality matchup in which they have a 24.25-point implied team total

Seattle Seahawks

Game Total: 42.5 / SEA +3.0 (19.75 imp)

Plays: 36.84% rush / 63.16% pass / 22.5 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass

oppDEF: 3.9 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 18.0 ppg / 7.33% sack / 3.77% int

Key Player: Geno Smith

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njiba, Tyler Lockett, Zach Charbonnet, Noah Fant, Jake Bobo (large field), AJ Barner (on/off), Kenny McIntosh (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones Sr., TJ Hockenson, Cam Akers (on/off), Josh Oliver (on/off), Jalen Nailor (large field)

Lineup Notes:

Quarterback

Geno Smith – The Seahawks inability to score in the passing game has gone from enigmatic to downright frustrating, with Geno Smith racking up 14 touchdown passes against 13 interceptions this season. Smith completes 70% of his 34.64 pass attempts per game, there should be plenty of scoring opportunities but somehow the team fails to put the ball into the arms of pass-catchers in the end zone. Smith last threw more than one touchdown in a game back in Week 9 against the Rams, he has three games with exactly one and two games with zero touchdowns since that performance. The quarterback has slipped for yardage in recent outings as well, failing to crack even 250 yards in all but one of the team’s five most recent games. Smith is a low-end play as QB19/18 and QB19/23 this week against a high-quality Minnesota defense

Running Backs

Kenneth Walker III – Walker is not on the injury report after a two week absence, rendering backup Zach Charbonnet irrelevant once again. Walker slots into his typical role that sees him pick up 14.5 carries and 4.5 targets per game, nearly ideal potential touch volume. Walker has seven rushing touchdowns despite gaining a limited 3.7 yards per attempt this season, he catches 3.8 of his targets per game but has managed only one touchdown reception this year. Walker is RB16/19 and RB17/20 as a mix-in option against a defense checking opponents to just 3.9 yards per rush attempt this season

Zach Charbonnet – At 4.3 yards per attempt, Charbonnet has technically been better at gaining ground this season than his more involved teammate, he has also outscored Walker with eight rushing touchdowns on the board and matched him with a touchdown catch. Charbonnet managed to outpace the starter despite a 51% snap share to Walker’s 64% for the season but the more limited role clips his wings as a DFS value option on either site this week

Receivers & Tight Ends

Jaxson Smith-Njigba – The team’s receivers look more playable than their quarterback, particularly where PPR scoring is involved. Jaxon Smith-Njigba sees 8.1 targets per game and catches 6.1 of them for 8.7 yards per target. Smith-Njigba leads the receiving group with five touchdown catches this season, he is a playable WR19/27 and WR22/36 across sites

DK Metcalf has dipped somewhat in production, he still ranks as easily playable across sites and he has managed three touchdown catches this season but those have come over 7.8 targets per game. Metcalf maintains appeal with a 12.6-yard average depth of target that screams big play ability, his 9.0 yards per target mark is solid and he still sits second on the team with nearly twice the targets of anyone other than Smith-Njigba. Metcalf is WR22 by points but jumps to WR15 by value on DraftKings, he is WR24/35 at a higher relative price on FanDuel

Noah Fant – A mix-and-match option at the tight end spot as TE11/11 and TE13/13 across sites. Fant draws 4.3 targets per game and picked up seven last week but has failed to score and sees just a limited 5.8-yard average depth of target, making it difficult to create big scoring events

Tyler Lockett – With the veteran’s production slipping to 3.0 catches on 4.6 targets per game, Lockett is a bit of an afterthought even in Seattle stacks. The receiver has two touchdown catches this season but still draws a solid 10.7-yard average depth of target and has big play ability. If rostering Seattle, Lockett remains a quality differentiation piece, he is playable at best outside of stacks

The Seahawks are Stack 15 by points and Stack 17 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 18 by points and Stack 23 by value on the FanDuel slate and are mostly on the board for spare parts in Week 16

San Francisco 49ers

Game Total: 45.0 / SF +1.0 (22.0 imp)

Plays: 47.24% rush / 52.76% pass / 22.4 ppg / 4.8 ypa rush / 8.2 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 22.3 ppg / 5.88% sack / 1.56% int

Key Player: Brock Purdy

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Jauan Jennings, Deebo Samuel Sr., George Kittle, Patrick Taylor Jr., Ricky Perasall, Israel Abanikanda (on/off), Kyle Juszczyk (on/off; large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: De’Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jonnu Smith, Malik Washington, Raheem Mostert, River Cracraft (large field)

Lineup Notes:

Quarterback

Brock Purdy – A disappointing injury-marred year for the 49ers has hampered what is a highly-talented offense helmed by a quality signal-caller in Brock Purdy who has 15 touchdown passes against nine interceptions in his shortened season. Purdy completed 65.0% of his 29.23 pass attempts for an excellent 8.3 yards per attempt and has four rushing touchdowns to pad his DFS scoring but the overall output of the team has kept his quality in check this season. Purdy is QB11 by points and QB15 by value on DraftKings, he is QB11/14 on the FanDuel slate, he is neither overly relevant nor truly irrelevant in Week 16, making him and the 49ers stack at least moderately playable at limited public exposure

Running Backs

Patrick Taylor Jr. – The likely candidate to lead the backfield in touches and snap share this week slots in as just RB19/17 on DraftKings but lands more uncomfortably as RB21 by points but RB4 by value on FanDuel. Patrick Taylor Jr. is filling in for Isaac Guerendo who was filling in for Jordan Mason in what is rapidly becoming a “sent the spider to catch the fly” situation. Taylor carried the ball seven times and gained 25 yards with a touchdown in Week 14 when Guerendo was forced out of action, leaving Taylor with 20 snaps with the offense, but he did not carry the ball on three snaps with the offense last week in Guerendo’s brief return. Taylor is an interesting value wrinkle on FanDuel this week

Israel Abanikanda – the running back has not played this season, he was picked up on waivers but not activated prior to the team’s game last week, if he suits up at all he would have indeterminate low-end value at best

Kyle Juszczyk – One could do worse than a few shares of a fullback in his typical role with a 52% snap share and a chance to see a bit of additional involvement with the shorthanded situation. Juszczyk is typically good for a few targets, he sees 1.6 per game but has failed to score on a pass this season, he has one odd rushing touchdown on the board despite seeing just 0.3 carries per game.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn – Another low-end value mixer who was elevated from the practice squad. Vaughn had two rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown in four NFL seasons coming into this year and has not added to those totals in limited action

Receivers & Tight Ends

Jauan Jennings – WR20/24 and WR16/10 is always playable on any given slate, in this case that receiver is a high-end player in Jauan Jennings, the nominal top option in the current version of the 49ers passing attack. Jennings has six touchdown catches this season and is currently seeing 7.3 targets per game, he drew nine opportunities last week. Jennings caught seven passes for 90 yards and scored twice in Week 14 but was shut down to the tune of two catches for 31 yards on nine targets in Week 15. Jennings is a strong option to return to form if the 49ers are going to stay in this game

Deebo Samuel Sr. – The poster boy for the lousy 49ers season, Samuel checks in as just WR25 by points on DraftKings and WR26 by points on FanDuel, but he is a strong play for value with a true ceiling as WR8 by points-per-dollar on DraftKings. On the FanDuel slate he is just WR18 by value, he is playable but less appealing on the blue site. Samuel has been held in check all season with just one touchdown catch and one rushing touchdown, even with missed games he would have been expected to be over those marks at this point. Samuel gains 8.0 yards per target on 5.5 targets per game but sees just a 7.3-yard average depth of target, requiring him to make a big play to create scoring events

George Kittle – The 49ers premium touchdown scorer this season, Kittle has eight touchdown catches on the season while drawing just 6.2 targets per game. The tight end sees an excellent 8.5-yard average depth of target and puts up 11.6 yards per target, one of the best overall marks on the board at any position this week. Kittle is under-appreciated for $6,000/$7,600, he should be more popular and ranks as TE3 by points and TE9 by value on both sites with a ceiling in excess of those marks

Ricky Pearsall – As WR61/64 and WR65/65, Pearsall checks in with one touchdown on the board this season. The rookie sees 3.0 targets per game on a solid 12.1-yard average depth, but his involvement and upside are fairly limited on a deep slate, he is only a mixer and barely qualifies as that much

The 49ers are Stack 13 by points and Stack 14 by value on DraftKings and Stack 15 by points but climb to Stack 5 by value on the FanDuel slate on the back of Taylor’s low price

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Game Total: 48.0 / TB -4.0 (26.0 imp)

Plays: 43.91% rush / 56.09% pass / 28.8 ppg / 5.2 ypa rush / 7.8 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.8 ypa rush / 8.0 ypa pass / 27.1 ppg / 9.11% sack / 2.86% int

Key Player: Baker Mayfield

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Mike Evans, Rachaad White, Sterling Shepard, Bucky Irving, Jalen McMillan, Payne Durham, Trey Palmer (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: CeeDee Lamb, Rico Dowdle, Jake Ferguson, Brandin Cooks, KaVontae Turpin, Jalen Tolbert, Ezekiel Elliott (on/off), Luke Schoonmaker (on/off)

Lineup Notes:

Quarterback

Baker Mayfield – As one of the three quarterbacks on this slate with more than 30 touchdown passes in the books headed into Week 16, Mayfield continues to be a strong consideration in all fantasy football formats. The Tampa Bay signal-caller completes an excellent 71.0% of his 33.07 pass attempts per game and only missed a minor beat with the loss of Chris Godwin and, for a time, Mike Evans. With Evans back in the mix, Mayfield retains major scoring potential on any given slate. The quarterback slots in as QB7 by points and QB10 by value on FanDuel this week

Running Backs

Bucky Irving – Irving has had a high-end rookie season with a terrific 5.6 yards per rush attempt over 10.9 carries per game with increasing responsibilities. Irving has six rushing touchdowns but is yet to score in the passing game despite catching 2.7 of 2.9 targets per game through the season. The multi-faceted running back is as good or better than Rachaad White at everything they do but White is a constant presence with significant volume in the passing game most weeks. Irving is RB12 by points and RB 13 by value on FanDuel

Rachaad White – As RB18/21 on the FanDuel slate, White is not much more than a mixer at low popularity. The running back gains just 4.2 yards per rush attempt on 10.4 carries per game, he has three rushing touchdowns but an excellent six receiving touchdowns on 3.7 targets per game. White has always been heavily involved as a pass catcher and is generally more valuable on PPR sites, it was no surprise to see him lose ground to Irving in the rushing attack while holding volume in the aerial assault

Sean Tucker – Tucker has mixed in for a few poached touchdowns, he has two on the ground and one in the passing game but has been targeted less than once a week and carries the ball just 2.9 times per game

Receivers & Tight Ends

Mike Evans – Evans is WR4 by points and WR8 by value on the FanDuel slate, if one rosters CeeDee Lamb on the Cowboys side of this game, Evans is the logical answer from the opposite end, the duo could go back and forth for big plays and scoring. Evans has nine touchdowns on the board this season, despite missing several contests. The veteran sees 7.2 targets per game and has gained 9.5 yards per target, he spiked 11 targets last week on his way to 159 yards and a pair of touchdown catches. Evans has 749 yards on the season, with a few big performances to close out the year he could continue his ridiculous streak of 1,000 yard seasons, which currently stands at a perfect 10-10 for his career

Jalen McMillan – The likely second-best option in the passing attack checks in as just WR37/40 with Sterling Shepard not far behind. McMillan was targeted six times last week to Shepard’s single draw and he has outscored the veteran four to one this season. McMillan sees a 12.4-yard average depth of target that makes him a solid downfield complement to Evans in the passing game

Sterling Shepard – Shepard is just WR46/46, he is no more than a dart throw with one touchdown catch on a nine-yard average depth of target this season

Payne Durham, Ryan Miller, Ko Kieft, Devin Culp – the tight end position is murky and best left alone with Cade Otton out

Tampa Bay is Stack 5 by points and Stack 12 by value on the FanDuel slate, they are a playable late night option against a Cowboys defense that allows 8.0 yards per pass attempt and more than 27.0 points per game

Tennessee Titans

Game Total: 42.5 / TEN +4.5 (19.0 imp)

Plays: 43.01% rush / 56.99% pass / 18.1 ppg / 4.2 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.5 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass / 23.5 ppg / 6.75% sack / 2.63% int

Key Player: Mason Rudolph

Setting: exactly one

Team Group: Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tyler Boyd, Chig Okonkwo, Tyjae Spears (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell

Lineup Notes:

Quarterback

Mason Rudolph – While there are many lame jokes about rooting for Rudolph to lead another inept organization to Christmastime success going around this week, the truth of the matter is that his presence is unlikely to create much of a difference despite a solid 209 yards on 21-26 passing for two touchdowns with an interception last week. Rudolph has six touchdown passes and five interceptions on the season and has completed 63% of his passes with four straight games between 209 and 266 yards. Rudolph peaked with 266 yards and a touchdown pass in Week 8 against Detroit, he has two games with two touchdown passes on the board this season but the overall output has been lackluster. Rudolph is QB22/12 and QB22/19

Running Backs

Tony Pollard – While carrying a questionable tag into Sunday morning, Pollard is expected to play. The running back has had a strong return to form over the 2024 season, gaining 4.3 yards per rush attempt and 4.4 yards per target while drawing 16.4 carries and 3.8 targets per game. Pollard has been up and down for touchdown scoring, he has five rushing touchdowns but has not scored in the passing game despite steady involvement. The running back is RB14/18 and RB16/19 across DraftKings and FanDuel this week and looks like the most playable option from the Titans overall

Tyjae Spears – The backup to Pollard is a productive rusher in his own right, though his averages have dipped to 3.5 yards per rush and 6.6 yards per target. Spears has two rushing touchdowns and a receiving touchdown but sees far more value when filling in fully for Pollard, in this role he would have to break a big gain as a lottery ticket play

Receivers & Tight Ends

Calvin Ridley – The team’s veteran receiver is sitting at three touchdowns while Nick Westbrook-Ikhine now has eight on the board in an impressive explosion of productivity. Ridley is still the better receiver, he has a tremendous 14.9-yard average depth of target that makes him instantly lethal on any slate, his potential for the massive play is more prominent than many more expensive receivers but he is checked somewhat by poor quarterback play. Ridley caught three passes for 41 yards last week but failed to find the end zone again, his last touchdown came in Week 10 when he scored twice

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine – The receiver has seen a bit of a breakout but rankings and projections remain somewhat tepid. Westbrook-Ikhine is WR47/58 and WR47/48 this week given his 3.1 targets per game for the season and in spite of a solid 11.9-yard ADOT and all the recent scoring. Westbrook-Ikhine caught two passes for nine yards and failed to score last week, the second game in a row in which he did not reach the end zone after scoring eight times in as many games leading up to the drought. In truth, the receiver has only one game all season with more than three catches, that was a five-catch 50-yard performance with a touchdown in Week 9. Westbrook-Ikhine made two big plays on two catches to get to a season-high 117 yards in Week 11, other than that game his season-high is 61 yards in Week 13, a game in which he managed to score two touchdowns. Outside of a nose for the end zone, Westbrook-Ikhine is far more limited than his numbers could suggest to some

Chig Okonkwo – The tight end is a mixer with limited appeal as TE15/14 and TE16/17 across sites, he has two touchdown receptions on 3.7 targets per game but spiked a 10-target upside day in Week 15 and could benefit from playing alongside Rudolph again, though that makes him no more than a dart throw at a cheap low-owned touchdown

Tyler Boyd – The veteran is still without a touchdown catch this season and has a season-high of just 55 yards and six catches in his Week 12 game

The Titans are a low-end squad regardless of which of their current options is at quarterback, they are Stack 18/18 and Stack 20/17 this week

Washington Commanders

Game Total: 45.0 / WAS +3.5 (20.75 imp)

Plays: 49.5% rush / 50.5% pass / 28.3 ppg / 4.9 ypa rush / 7.8 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.2 ypa rush / 6.1 ypa pass / 17.6 ppg / 8.06% sack / 1.80% int

Key Player: Jayden Daniels

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Terry McLaurin, Brian Robinson Jr., Dyami Brown, Olamide Zacchaeus, Jeremy McNichols (on/off), Jamison Crowder (large field), Luke McCaffrey (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Grant Calcaterra, Kenneth Gainwell (on/off), Jahan Dotson (large field; on/off)

Lineup Notes:

Quarterback

Jayden Daniels – The Eagles have one of the top pass defenses in football in 2024, giving rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels a challenge in Week 16. Daniels has 17 touchdown passes against just six interceptions and adds another six scores in the rushing game in a terrific rookie season. Daniels is sitting at 70% completions over 28.07 attempts per game, while his volume is not ideal his scoring has been excellent, but that pushes the pricing up to difficult regions of the board. Daniels is QB8 by points on DraftKings and QB9 by scoring on FanDuel but slips to QB21 and QB19 respectively when measured by value

Running Backs

Brian Robinson Jr. – The running back gains 4.4 yards per rush attempt on 14.5 carries per game and adds 1.7 targets, giving him 16.2 potential touches per week which falls a bit shy of our desired involvement. Robinson Jr. costs $6,200/$6,800 across sites, he is RB13/11 and RB14/10, putting him in play for a bit of value based potential even without major volume. The Eagles have allowed 4.2 yards per rush attempt this season, the Commanders could lean into the running game somewhat if Philadelphia is unable to get out to an early lead but Robinson is a mixer from the mid-level at best this week

Jeremy McNichols – Explosive upside with a 4.9-yard per attempt average on the ground and four rushing touchdowns but limited unpredictable volume in this role with 3.7 carries and 0.4 targets per game

Receivers & Tight Ends

Terry McLaurin – The Commanders top receiver might as well be their only receiver in many weeks. McLaurin has 11 touchdown catches this season, no other active pass-catcher for the team has more than one, a total shared by Dyami Brown and Ben Sinnott. McLaurin dominates targets with 6.6 per game in the limited attack, he spiked up to 10 last week in the absence of Zach Ertz. McLaurin sees a terrific 14.1-yard average depth of target and has a 42.69% air yards share, making him one of the leading big play options among all of the wide receivers on the slate. The receiver is WR15 by points but WR33 by value on DraftKings, he is WR17/28 on FanDuel but has a higher ceiling for GPP play on either site given the huge touchdown potential

Dyami Brown, Olamide Zaccheaus, Jamison Crowder, Luke McCaffrey – All four receivers garner 3.0 or fewer targets with Zaccheaus leading the way and Brown sitting second with 2.2 targets per game. Brown has the lone touchdown in the group and no one sees an average depth of target beyond Crowder’s 6.0 yards. With Ertz and Noah Brown out of commission there is a chance for one of the receivers to find additional looks and shape of opportunity but the stronger bet is that it simply continues to funnel to McLaurin

Ben Sinnott – As one of three pass-catchers with a touchdown and with the expectation of filling Ertz’s role, Sinnott is a cheap tight end option who lands as TE19/18 and TE22/22

The Commanders are a low-quality stack against a high-quality defense this week, they rank as Stack 17/20 on DraftKings and Stack 19/19 on FanDuel

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Content Creator:

Terry McBride

Terry is the founder of rotoscouts, he has more than 20 years of experience in daily and season-long fantasy sports. Terry has helped to create industry-leading DFS content for the past few years while sharing his expertise in MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, and more.

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Team Groups for DraftKings & FanDuel – Week 16

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