The 10-game Saturday afternoon main slate takes a shape somewhat similar to last night’s 10-game contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel. There is a fairly broad range of good-not-great pitching options that is formed by either formerly trustworthy top-of-the-rotation starters who have hit some bumps this season or high-performance rookies in fairly good spots. There are plenty of lower-end pitchers and good situational hitting spots that should create a significant amount of offense on this slate however, and the overall lean seems to be toward bats. The Braves and Reds are going to battle in what will stand in for Coors Field in this game, the contest in Cincinnati has a 12.0-run implied total after last night’s incredible shootout, and the run total matches what Coors Field is drawing in their night game that does not appear on this slate. The Braves are pulling in the slate-leading team projection by a wide margin, they will be very popular but deservedly so, the Reds should be a good option in their matchup as well. The Rays, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Mariners, and others look to be in good spots for scoring as well, there are plenty of ways to create unique lineups that take leverage positions against the public without getting overwhelmed with concerns about an individual or even team ownership, yes even with popular teams like the Braves.
Don’t miss our new Stack Suggestions feature and our Power Index for more on the top opportunities at the plate tonight.
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Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Snapshot – 6/24/23
Seattle Mariners (+101/4.49) @ Baltimore Orioles (-108/4.60)
Note: this game has a minor amount of weather looming but it should play.
The first game of the afternoon sees another Mariners pitcher pulling down an interesting projection against the frisky Orioles lineup in what should be a good matchup between two competitive teams. Baltimore will have right-handed starter Dean Kremer on the mound to face the free-swinging hard-hitting Mariners. Kremer costs $8,700/$8,300 and has a modicum of upside potential with the degree to which the Mariners tend to strike out. Seattle’s projected batting order has a collective 26.3% strikeout rate this season which gives even a pitcher with a 20.7% strikeout rate for the season a bit of a chance to pad his MLB DFS score. Kremer has been effective in spots this season, his 4.56 ERA and 4.38 xFIP are not good but they are not atrocious numbers either, but he has allowed a fair amount of premium contact which could get him into trouble against the Mariners. Kremer’s home run rate sits at 4.03% this year on 90.9 mph exit velocity with a 46.2% hard-hit rate and 10% barrels. If he can avoid the long ball and find some clean innings, Kremer could pay off his salary, but he is not priced low enough to be an effective value play and he is too unreliable to trust at his asking price. The Mariners can certainly be rostered in this spot, the capabilities of this offense were on display just last night, they have tons of power on both sides of the plate and when they are going right they can create runs without hitting the ball over the fence. JP Crawford is projected to lead off, he has a 106 WRC+ with a .349 on-base percentage on the left side of the plate and is a fairly-priced correlated scoring play. Julio Rodriguez and Ty France are fixtures in the second and third spots in the lineup. Rodriguez has a dozen home runs and 16 stolen bases but his triple-slash is still disappointing at .237/.301/.411 and he has created runs just two percent ahead of the curve this year. The sophomore outfielder is cheap for his talents at $5,200/$3,700 and he is in a good matchup but not a great park for right-handed power. France has seven home runs and a 125 WRC+ while slashing .281/.352/.428, he has individual talent and is a good option for correlated scoring with the hitters that follow and he is rarely popular. Teoscar Hernandez, Jarred Kelenic, and Eugenio Suarez pack a punch in the heart of the lineup, Hernandez has 14 home runs, Kelenic has 11, and Suarez brings up the bottom with just seven and a .118 ISO that is wildly uncharacteristic of the third baseman. The two outfielders are easy clicks when stacking Mariners, they are both fairly priced for their flaws, which primarily come around strikeouts, and they will probably only be at moderate popularity. Suarez has been a problematic play for most of the season, he has never been a good hitter for average or on-base skills, but his power always carried through, he hit 21 home runs each of the last two seasons for example. The third baseman is cheap at $3,400/$2,600, so at least he has that going for him one spot ahead of Cal Raleigh in the second half of the lineup. Raleigh has massive power at the catcher position, the switch-hitter has 10 home runs this year and he hit 27 in just 415 plate appearances last season. Raleigh is another big strikeout player, he has a 25.3% rate this year which represents a big improvement over last season’s 29.4%, he should chat with Mike Ford to see if they can rein in Ford’s ugly 37.2% rate (43 plate appearances). Ford has power but not much else at the plate, the quad-A player has hit four home runs in 43 plate appearances. Jose Caballero is better in the leadoff role but he has a 117 WRC+ for the season that is compiled mostly at the bottom of the lineup with two home runs and 11 stolen bases. The Mariners are a good mid-range stacking play on this slate, the team ranks sixth in our team projections.
The Orioles will be facing rookie hurler Bryce Miller, one of many premium young arms who were promoted to the Show in the Year of the Prospect. Miller has made nine starts covering 51.1 innings and he has done quite well in the sample. The righty has a 3.68 ERA and 4.02 xFIP with a 22.7% strikeout rate in the sample while limiting home runs to 2.02%, though he has allowed premium contact with a 9.1% barrel rate and 90.6 mph of exit velocity. Miller has a 9.6% swinging-strike rate and 24.4% CSW% but has walked only four percent, he is another control and command specialist, something that the Mariners prioritize organizationally. Miller’s line includes two awful starts that came in the same week at the beginning of this month after the kid had cruised through his first handful of starts. In those outings, Miller faced the Yankees (with Judge) and allowed eight runs with two home runs while striking out only three in 4.2 innings. In his next start, he faced an even better team in Texas and gave up seven earned runs while striking out just two Rangers and walking two in 2.1 innings. He bounced back with six strikeouts in each of his next two starts, facing the Marlins and White Sox and booking a quality start in both games. Miller is a very highly regarded young pitcher with a plus-plus fastball and a nasty sweeper as well as developing offspeed stuff. The righty projects among the top pitchers on our board against a more limited version of the Orioles lineup. Baltimore’s projected batting order has a 22.4% strikeout rate from top to bottom and the team is still without power-hitting Ryan Mountcastle and outfielder Cedric Mullins. Miller has an upside at $9,500/$9,100, the FanDuel price is particularly interesting. Gunnar Henderson slots into the first spot in the lineup where he has found a good home for the Orioles while Mullins has been out. Henderson is slashing .239/.343/.459 with a .220 ISO and 11 home runs. The infielder has a 13.2% barrel rate and a 50.7% hard-hit rate while walking at a 13.2% clip but striking out 30.2% of the time. Henderson is cheap at $4,800/$3,400 with third base and shortstop eligibility on both sites, he is a good option when targeting stacks of Orioles, which is viable in a both-sided approach. Catcher Adley Rutschman costs $5,400/$3,200 which is a fair price for the young backstop who is becoming a star in Baltimore. Rutschman has 10 home runs and has created runs 25% better than average this season while striking out just 14% of the time and walking at a 15.2% clip. Anthony Santander went deep for his 12th home run of the season last night, the switch-hitter is one of the longest-tenured Orioles at this point, he has power to spare and is always in play when rostering Orioles bats. Ryan O’Hearn has been raking from the left side of the plate over 101 plate appearances, he has six home runs and a .266 ISO with a 164 WRC+ in the sample, but we know over the long term that O’Hearn is not a .330/.366/.596 hitter. Austin Hays has been very good over 271 plate appearances, he has eight home runs and an 11.5% barrel rate with a 43.5% hard-hit rate. Aaron Hicks costs just $2,600/$2,400, as a value option in the outfield when stacking Orioles he is fine, but it is important to be realistic about the player on the whole. Adam Frazier, Ramon Urias, and Jorge Mateo are all capable and can produce big games at times, but they are far from reliable and only Urias’s 101 WRC+ is above average. All three players can hit a cheap home run or steal bases, but they are a weak bottom third.
Play: Bryce Miller, Mariners bats/stacks, some Orioles bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Texas Rangers (-127/4.80) @ New York Yankees (+117/4.31)
Note: this game has a minor amount of weather looming but it should play.
Raise your hand if you trust Luis Severino. Not seeing any hands in the air, that’s about what we thought. The righty has not pitched deep into ballgames since his return from injury and his quality has been shaky at best. Severino has booked one quality start in his six outings since returning in late May, that was the only game in which he pitched in the sixth inning. The righty has found a few strikeouts, reaching a total of six twice and five twice, but he needs more than that to find full value for DFS, let alone MLB success. The righty has allowed premium contact galore and he has been tattooed for home runs in several outings. Over 30 innings in six outings, Severino has a 5.71% home run rate on 12.4% barrels and a 44.3% hard-hit rate this season while striking out just 20% and walking 9.3%. He has a 6.30 ERA and 5.07 xFIP and Yankees manager Aaron Boone trusts him about as much as DFS gamers do, Boone woke up this morning sharpening his quick hook for Severino’s head, he will not hesitate to pull the pitcher in the fifth inning or even before if there is trouble. When he is going right, Severino can be ace-like on the mount, he had a 27.7% strikeout rate with a 3.18 ERA and 3.38 xFIP in 102 innings and 19 starts last season, but he is never one to pitch deep into games and he is facing one of baseball’s best teams with the Rangers in town. At $7,200 on both sites the pitcher is certainly priced right for a value play, a few shares would not be a radical mistake, but the path to success is fairly thin for Severino in this spot, he projects in the middle of the pitching board. Meanwhile, the Rangers’ power hitters are salivating at all of the premium contact the pitcher has allowed this year. Even in good seasons, Severino has made loud mistakes and allowed a fair amount of hard hits, which should play to Texas’ strengths. Marcus Semien and Corey Seager are a dynamite middle infield combination for a total of $12,400 on DraftKings and $8,300 on FanDuel. The infielders are stars with tremendous power and run-creation ability, they each have 10 home runs this season with Seager leading the way for run creation at a massive 188 WRC+ over his 201 plate appearances. Semien has a 116 and has slid a bit in productivity, but he will come rampaging back with a big week soon enough, we want to be ahead of the curve. Nathaniel Lowe has a good bat to target the short porch in right field, Lowe has a .274/.367/.428 triple-slash with a .154 ISO and 124 WRC+ and eight home runs this season. The first baseman is a cheap point at the top of the Texas lineup on every slate, he is rarely popular and is good for individual production and correlated scoring. Adolis Garcia and Josh Jung have a 10.02 and an 8.00 in our home run model, Garcia has 17 long balls this season and Jung has 15. The power-hitting duo is joined by catcher Jonah Heim who has 10 home runs of his own in the middle of the batting order. Heim has a 118 WRC+ and can be deployed alongside fellow power-hitting catcher Mitch Garver when both land in the lineup, where possible. Robbie Grossman is in the projected lineup but may not play, if he is in the Texas batting order he is a mix-and-match veteran with moderate power potential. Ezequiel Duran and Leody Taveras are exciting options at the bottom of the lineup at low popularity and cheap prices on every slate. The duo has been excellent all year, Duran has nine home runs and has created runs 44% better than average over 204 opportunities, and Taveras is 30% better than average for runs with eight home runs and seven stolen bases in 238 chances. The Rangers are favored with a 4.80-run implied team total in the Bronx this afternoon, they are a good option for stacking, but there are also weather considerations to watch in this game.
A limited version of the Yankees lineup will face righty Jon Gray, an effective veteran starter who is having a fairly good season so far in 2023. Gray has a 2.96 ERA but a 4.37 xFIP over 13 starts and 76 innings. The right-hander has struck out 21.7% with a 7.7% walk rate while allowing just 6.8% barrels and a 34.1% hard-hit rate with 88.5 mph of exit velocity. The contact metrics are in line with what Gray has held opposing hitters to in years past, last year his barrel rate was 6.1% with a 3.26% home run rate and the year before was 6.9% barrels and 3.26% home runs while pitching half of his games in Coors Field. Gray is a good pitcher at a high price, $9,700/$10,000 is a big asking price for the starter, he projects well but lands at the top of the second tier for us on this slate. The pricing should keep the public at bay, Gray can pay off that salary and he would be an interesting tournament option at what will probably be single-digit popularity. The Yankees will answer with a lineup that includes Jake Bauers in the leadoff spot in the projected form. Bauers has six home runs but is slashing .227/.315/.473 with a 116 WRC+, the triple-slash and his 28.3% strikeout rate are not designed for the leadoff spot. Gleyber Torres is a quality second baseman who should probably just hit leadoff again. Torres has 12 home runs and a .173 ISO with a 108 WRC+ this season and costs just $3,000 on the FanDuel slate, he is a bigger ticket item at $5,700 on DraftKings. Giancarlo Stanton has a 12.90 in our home run model to lead the Yankees, but he has been off since rejoining the team. Stanton costs $5,600/$2,800, the FanDuel price is very good for this hitter who has as much power as anyone in baseball. Anthony Rizzo is slashing .273/.355/.439 while creating runs 25% better than average and looks to be coming out of a weeks-long slump that was likely caused by a jammed shoulder in a play at first base. Rizzo is a strong option in stacks of Yankees hitters at $4,400/$2,800. Josh Donaldson got Friday night off, he brings power to the heart of the lineup but little else, the third baseman has six home runs in 71 tries this year and costs $3,500/$2,800. Harrison Bader has mid-range power and good speed when he is in the lineup, Bader is again the most expensive player on the Yankees on FanDuel at $3,100, he costs $4,300 on DraftKings and is a playable outfielder on either site. Billy McKinney has three home runs and a 165 WRC+ in 49 plate appearances and hits left-handed in Yankee Stadium. Kyle Higashioka has a sturdy 14.1% barrel rate and 56.4% hard-hit rate this season, though that has translated to just three home runs and a .132 ISO in the catcher’s 122 opportunities. Anthony Volpe has 10 home runs and 15 stolen bases, if you catch the counting stats in their rare appearances it is a good day with Volpe, otherwise, it is probably a zero.
Play: Rangers bats/stacks, Jon Gray, Yankees bats/stacks in small shares, Luis Severino value in small low-expectations doses
Update Notes:
New York Mets (-126/5.05) @ Philadelphia Phillies (+116/4.56)
The Mets are another road favorite this afternoon, with lefty Cristopher Sanchez taking the mound for their arch-rival Phillies. Sanchez has made two starts and has a 29.4% strikeout rate with a 3.24 ERA and 3.28 xFIP in 8.1 innings in the Show this season. He threw 40 innings with three starts and some bullpen appearances last year and pitched to a 5.63 REA with a 4.20 xFIP and 19.8% strikeout rate, the truth is probably somewhere in between. Sanchez has not worked deep into either start, he went 4.1 in the first game and 4.0 in his second, striking out five in each contest. The managed innings are a concern for anyone considering the lefty, he costs $6,700/$7,100 and does not seem like an ideal candidate to pay that salary off this afternoon. The Mets lineup is pulling down a 5.05-run implied total in a good matchup. Slugger Pete Alonso is carrying a slate-leading 14.34 in our home run model in the cleanup spot for just $5,200/$3,800 as a major source of upside, and the team’s moving parts are all capable of providing value alongside the star power hitter. Brandon Nimmo gets on base at a .372 clip this season, he has eight home runs and a 128 WRC+ and is capable across the board for a cheap $3,900/$3,100 in the outfield. Nimmo belongs with Alonso in most Mets stacks, the duo is very good for driving this offense from the first and fourth spots in the lineup. In between, one will typically find Starling Marte and Francisco Lindor a pair of scuffling veterans with major qualities for MLB DFS. Marte has gotten himself together at the plate and is up to 20 stolen bases but his power remains absent and his WRC+ is still 18 points below par. Lindor has not hit for average or gotten on base, but he has 14 home runs and nine stolen bases on the season with a .218 ISO while creating runs six percent ahead of the curve. Tommy Pham has been very good in his part-time role this year, he has a 122 WRC+ with seven home runs and a .221 ISO while making a steady amount of premium contact. The toolsy veteran has a 15.2% barrel rate and 50.9% hard-hit rate and he has added eight stolen bases to pad his DFS point totals. Pham is cheap at $2,900/$2,800 in the outfield, he is a good bolt-on option if he hits fifth. Francisco Alvarez blazed his way to 12 home runs and a .259 ISO but has cooled a bit over the past week or two, which should be expected from a rookie catcher who is here earlier than expected. Alvarez has a top-end bat for a fair price late in the lineup. The catcher is followed by veterans Jeff McNeil, Mark Canha, and Brett Baty, who has a clear path to everyday opportunities the rest of the season with the Mets sending veteran Eduardo Escobar to the Angels (like, in a trade, they didn’t have him killed or anything). Each of the final three hitters is a playable part that can be mixed into Mets stacks. McNeil is a slap-hitter who can get on base and score runs, Canha has a bit of power but has not been great this year, and Baty is a premium rookie with four home runs in his 193 chances. The Mets are a good option but they rank somewhat down our projections board with the bottom four hitters in the lineup dragging the average projection down somewhat.
The Phillies will face veteran Max Scherzer who checks in at a cheap $8,900/$9,200. Scherzer has been up and down searching for his form over the full season, he had a big day in his most recent start, his fourth good outing in five games, and seems to be getting himself right on the mound. The last time out, Scherzer went 8.0 while striking out eight Astros and allowing just one run on a solo homer and four total hits. The game prior to that was a clunker against the Yankees in which both he and Gerrit Cole let their teams down, but the three starts immediately before that were all quality starts with good strikeout totals. Scherzer is too good with too much of a track record to be priced where he is, the Phillies have major talent and plenty of power, but there are also strikeouts for the righty in their lineup and Scherzer has the knack for finding them. Even in the up and down year, the righty has a 14.2% swinging-strike rate with a 25.7% strikeout rate and he has pitched to a 4.04 ERA with a 4.06 xFIP. Scherzer is a good option on this slate for price, he projects slightly below some of the pitchers in better matchups but he should be taken as a similar play that can be evaluated along popularity lines. The Phillies lineup opens with Kyle Schwarber who has a 10.95 in our home run model with 20 in the books for the season. Schwarber has a great walk rate but also strikes out at nearly a 30% pace, he could feed a few strikeouts in Scherzer’s direction but the danger of a leadoff long ball is always in play with this hitter. Trea Turner has seven home runs and 13 stolen bases with an 81 WRC+, he strikes out at a 22.9% clip this season, up about four points from last year while everything else is down, he has not been good but he is cheap on FanDuel at $5,800/$3,200. Nick Castellanos is too cheap for being the team’s best player this season. For some reason, DraftKings has Castellanos at just $4,200 with FanDuel pricing him in at $3,300. The outfielder has eight home runs and a 124 WRC+ this season and is slashing .310/.354/.481 which is only surprising to anyone who is unfamiliar with this career prior to last season’s struggles. Castellanos is very much the hitter we have seen this year, take the discount and be happy for it. Bryce Harper has a 12.6% barrel rate and 42.9% hard hits this season but that has amounted to just three home runs and a .117 ISO in his 191 plate appearances. Harper’s power will come back and he has been very good without it, the Phillies’ star has created runs 19% better than average since his return, he is an expensive piece at $5,900/$3,500 but he is worth it in stacks and can be used as a one-off, particularly given his first base eligibility on the blue site for a fair price. JT Realmuto is a star catcher, if he is in the lineup for a day game after a night game, the catcher can always be utilized, he has eight homers and 10 steals this year and costs just $5,500/$3,200. Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, Kody Clemens, Brandon Marsh, and Edmundo Sosa are all playable parts that the Phillies mix and match at the bottom of their lineup, we can do the same with the collection of hitters. The group has playable power, speed, and a good knack for getting on base and creating runs for cheap salaries and low popularity, but the matchup against Max Scherzer is far from ideal.
Play: Max Scherzer, Mets bats/stacks, Phillies bats in smaller hedge shares
Update Notes:
Arizona Diamondbacks (-104/4.30) @ San Francisco Giants (-104/4.30)
The showdown in the NL West was a good 8-5 contest last night and Vegas is calling it right down the middle with both teams at -104 and carrying 4.30-run implied totals. The pick’em setup is a bit surprising with quality righty Merrill Kelly on the mound for the visiting Diamondbacks and the Giants opting for a bullpen game that will likely be handed off to rookie Keaton Winn as the bulk reliever. This has not been an easily predictable situation for San Francisco in recent games, we do not recommend playing the opener, Ryan Walker, or the bulk reliever on a slate that has plenty of options for pitching. Those wishing to roster Winn can do so for just $4,000/$5,500, but the Giants may opt for Tristan Beck or a straight bullpen game instead. Winn has thrown nine innings in the Show, he went five innings on the 19th, striking out four and giving up a home run and three hits to the Padres. The Giants will be chasing success for whoever pitches in a matchup against Kelly, who has been very good this season. The righty has a 27.1% strikeout rate with a 2.90 ERA and 3.61 xFIP over 90 innings in 15 starts, he has pitched with quality and depth almost every time on the mound this season. Kelly has a 9.9% walk rate, he puts a few too many on base but has been good at punching his way out of trouble this season with a 12.7% swinging-strike rate. The starter has also been good at avoiding the long ball despite allowing some premium contact, he has coughed up just a 2.54% home run rate despite 40.3% hard hits and a nine percent barrel rate. Kelly costs $10,100/$10,500, he projects near the top of our pitching board and is unlikely to be overly popular in this matchup and at his price. There is plenty of MLB DFS upside in rostering Merrill Kelly at low ownership in this matchup.
The Diamondbacks are at a fairly low run total for a productive team that does not strike out much against an opener-bulk reliever combination or a straight bullpen game. The team has been very good for run creation and balls in play all season and they have upside for power in any matchup. Arizona’s projected lineup opens with Geraldo Perdomo, who has been effective in the leadoff role. Perdomo has a .401 on-base percentage overall for the season which should help him become a dynamite correlated scoring option with the team’s quality bats from 2-5. Ketel Marte is a switch-hitting second baseman who has 12 home runs and six stolen bases with a .208 ISO while creating runs 32% better than average this year. Marte costs $5,300/$3,900, the DraftKings price is still a bit cheap for the premium position that Marte plays. Corbin Carroll is not cheap on either site at $6,200/$4,200, but he is well worth the investment. Carroll has created runs 56% better than average while barreling 9.4% of his batted-ball events with a 42.5% hard-hit rate that has become 16 home runs and a .278 ISO in his statistical line. The outfielder has stolen 23 bases and is a star in the third spot in this lineup. Christian Walker has 15 home runs and strikes out at just a 16.5% rate for the season so far, he is a very good power bat at his position for cheap pricing. Walker costs $4,900/$3,600, he is far too cheap on DraftKings for a player who hit 36 home runs just last year. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has 11 home runs and a 118 WRC+ and he strikes out at just a 17.4% pace. Gurriel has regained his power and has a strong triple-slash over time, he is a good buy in the outfield at $4,100?$3,100. Alek Thomas, Emmanuel Rivera, Carson Kelly, and Jake McCarthy are all quality mix-in options late in the lineup. Thomas and McCarthy have mid-range power and good speed at low prices, Rivera has been very good over 144 plate appearances with a 101 WRC+ and .316/.340/.404 triple-slash and Kelly is a serviceable catcher at low prices and popularity. The Diamondbacks are a better stack than the Giants in this matchup, despite the team’s carrying matching run totals in Vegas. San Francisco will target Kelly with their left-handed power bats, starting with LaMonte Wade Jr. who we like quite a bit from the top of this lineup on most slates. Wade is always underpriced and is rarely popular, even when he is leading off against a righty. The first baseman costs $4,300/$3,100 despite creating runs 48% better than average with a .418 on-base percentage and posting nine home runs in his 277 plate appearances this year. Thairo Estrada has nine homers of his own, he pairs that power with 17 stolen bases in his ledger so far this year and was similarly good with 14 long balls and 21 steals in 541 plate appearances last year. Estrada is good for individual production as well as correlation with other options in Giants stacks. Joc Pederson has light tower power from the left side. The outfielder has eight home runs with a .227 ISO in 159 platoon-based plate appearances this season. JD Davis hits well against both hands and has a sturdy contact profile with a 10.8% barrel rate and 49.7% hard hits. Davis has 10 home runs and a 129 WRC+ while slashing .284/.363/.474 and he costs just $4,000/$3,000. Michael Conforto also brings a big power bat on the left side of the plate, Conforto has a dozen home runs in his 264 plate appearances in 2023. Blake Sabol, Patrick Bailey, Brandon Crawford, and Luis Matos round out the projected lineup as playable parts. Sabol is a lefty with outfield and catcher eligibility and seven home runs in 190 plate appearances, Bailey has been better with the bat over his 99 plate appearances, he has a good triple-slash and four home runs in the tiny sample but both backstops may not play at the same time today. Crawford is an aging veteran with the memory of lefty power at shortstop, Matos is a young outfielder with speed and a good hit tool.
Play: Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks bats/stacks, minor shares of Giants bats
Update Notes:
Oakland Athletics (+233/3.47) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-261/5.66)
The Blue Jays are another team carrying a massive implied total in Vegas as huge favorites with a 5.66-run total and -261 line. The Blue Jays have an outstanding offense with power and speed and excellent hit tools up and down and they will be facing lefty Hogan Harris, who has made two starts and thrown 28.1 innings in his career. There is a significant opportunity for rostering Blue Jays and we do not need to talk about Hogan as a pitching option, but first, we have to discuss the Athletics and a matchup against righty Jose Berrios. Oakland’s limited lineup has left-handed power that can come to life from time to time, as we saw against last night’s starter Chris Bassitt in the early part of the game. Berrios is not immune to home runs, in fact he has had seasons where they are a downright problem for him, including just last year. The righty has worked out the kinks from 2022 so far this season however, he has a 3.64 ERA and 4.11 xFIP with a 21.5% strikeout rate and has cut hard hits from 43.4% to 32.2% in the small sample. Berrios has allowed a 2.45% home run rate on the season, down from 3.85% last year and in line with his productive 2021 season. He has not hit a similar strikeout total to that year’s 26.1% over 192 innings and 32 starts, but his 21.5% this year is up from the 19.8% he posted last season. Overall, Berrios is looking like a league-average pitcher who can provide upside beyond that level in the right matchup, which this very well may be. The righty is pulling in a strong projection in our pitching model against the lousy Athletics and he is fairly priced at $9,900/$9,200. Berrios is very likely to draw popularity on this slate, if that is the case he is an option that we can choose to roster with an eye toward slightly undercutting the field to create opportunities elsewhere, but he does have a very good chance of leading the pitching slate today. Oakland’s batting order opens with Esteury Ruiz who still has 39 stolen bases for the season. We say “still” because Ruiz has a habit of ticking that box on a daily basis as if it were a “this workplace has gone X days with a stolen base” sign. Ruiz needs to get on base more often, but if one is stacking Athletics hitters he belongs in the group. Ryan Noda costs $2,800 on both sites, the cheap first baseman has power and a knack for getting on base, despite numerous other flaws at the plate. Noda has eight home runs and has created runs 36% better than average this season, the lefty slugger should be in most stacks of Athletics. JJ Bleday and Seth Brown are another pair of lefties with power. Bleday has five home runs and a 105 WRC+ in 130 plate appearances but is slashing .207/.315/.396 so far this year, and Brown has four homers with two stolen bases after missing most of the season and scuffling his way back in recent weeks. Jace Peterson, Tony Kemp, Tyler Wade, and Conner Capel round out the projected lineup on the left side of the plate if the Athletics go heavy in the split again today. They are projected to be joined by right-handed catcher Shea Langeliers who hit his ninth home run of the year last night as a cheap low-owned option behind the plate. Among the lefties, Peterson and Kemp are veterans with a mixed bag of power and a touch of speed, while Wade and Capel are toolsy younger options with lower-end power and speed if they manage to get on base. Wade has three-position eligibility for the minimum price on FanDuel, which has inherent value on its own.
The Blue Jays are set to mash, there is no clear reason to roster Harris, even for $5,900/$7,300 in this matchup. Toronto’s lineup draws a starter with a 42% hard-hit rate and 4.86 xFIP over 28.1 innings in a hybrid role this year, the lefty is in trouble before even taking the mound. George Springer opens the lineup for the Blue Jays, the outfielder is at .259/.325/.398 with a 104 WRC+ in 323 plate appearances after a frigid start to the year. Springer has 10 home runs and 12 stolen bases and is looking more like himself statistically every day. For $5,100/$2,900 the outfielder is still at a strong discount for his talent, which is critical in this pricey lineup. Whit Merrifield slides up to second with a lefty on the bump. Merrifield has a good right-handed hit tool and speed, he is an excellent play for correlated scoring from this spot in the lineup for just $3,700/$3,000 with outfield and second base eligibility on both sites. Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are a pair of stars in the heart of the lineup. Bichette has 14 home runs and has created runs 37% better than average, and Guerrero has hit 10 home runs and has a 119 WRC+ while posting a 13.3% barrel rate and 55.8% hard-hit rate for the year. Only Matt Chapman is outpacing Guerrero’s contact, the cheap third baseman has an 18.7% barrel rate and 59.1% hard-hit rate this year with 10 home runs and a .200 ISO on the board. Chapman was on fire to start then cooled, he may be kicking off a resurgence that we want to get ahead of in Blue Jays stacks at his current pricing. Danny Jansen, Daulton Varsho, Santiago Espinal, and Ernie Clement round out the projected lineup, Espinal and Clement help with pricing at $2,000/$2,200 and $2,200/$2,000 while Jansen and Varsho provide positional power potential.
Play: Blue Jays bats/stacks aggressively, Jose Berrios, minor shares of contrarian Athletics again with a focus on the left-handed quality
Update Notes:
Milwaukee Brewers (+103/3.97) @ Cleveland Guardians (-111/4.12)
Rookie Tanner Bibee is another name on that list of premium call-ups this season. The righty is one of three top-100 prospects to join the Guardians rotation this season, he has made 10 starts and thrown 53.1 innings in the Show to strong returns. Bibee has a 4.05 ERA and 4.53 xFIP with a 22.4% strikeout rate with a 7.5% walk rate in the sample and has been good at limiting home runs despite allowing some premium contact. The righty has a 9.2% swinging-strike rate and 26.8% CSW% while allowing 42% hard hits and an 8.3% barrel rate and 90.3 mph of exit velocity. For just $8,100/$8,500, Bibee projects well enough in our model to warrant some faith against the Brewers, which is how Vegas is seeing the matchup with Milwaukee at just a 3.97-run implied total. Bibee’s price is right, he makes for a strong SP2 option on the DraftKings slate and he is easily playable on the blue site as well. Milwaukee bats can be rostered against the pitcher, of course, the team has plenty of power and run creation upside throughout and they have gotten healthy in recent weeks. Christian Yelich and Jesse Winker land in the top two spots in the batting order. Yelich has been 14% better than average for run creation this season while Winker has been 39% below average and has just one home run. Yelich has hit nine long balls and stolen 16 bases, he is a star for $4,600/$3,400, his DraftKings price is too cheap by a lot. Willy Adames costs $4,100/$2,700 at shortstop and could come right back with a big game after homering twice last night. Adames has 12 home runs while slashing .216/.294/.398 with an 87 WRC+ this season. Rowdy Tellez has a dozen home runs of his own with an 88 WRC+ and a 24.4% strikeout rate. Owen Miller got a night off last night but should rejoin the lineup today. Miller offers multi-position eligibility at first and second base on DraftKings for $3,900 and he fits into second, third, and the outfield for $2,600 on FanDuel. Miller has four home runs and nine stolen bases while slashing .280/.320/.399. Raimel Tapia is a cheap outfielder at $2,300 on both sites, Luis Urias slots in at second base and third base on DraftKings and fits into those positions plus shortstop on the blue site. Urias has one home run in 55 plate appearances since his return, he hit 16 last year and 23 two seasons ago. Victor Caratini has a 48.5% hard-hit rate in his 102 plate appearances this year with three home runs, he has a bit of sneaky pop at his position when he lands in the lineup. Joey Wiemer has been very good for counting stats this season, he has 10 home runs and 10 stolen bases.
We already did the raise your hand bit, so stomp your feet if you trust Freddy Peralta. Not hearing anything, we’re going to assume that you feel the way we do about the frustrating righty starter. Peralta has a 25.5% strikeout rate and 4.60 ERA with a 4.13 xFIP this season. The righty is typically very good at limiting premium contact and home runs but it has seemed like he gives up two long balls every time we mention that this season. Peralta’s home run rate is up from 1.89% last year and 2.41% the year before to 4.24% this season and he has allowed massive contact with 9.9% barrels and a 38% hard-hit rate amounting to 88.3 mph of exit velocity, which is still somewhat low but not nearly the 87.1 mph he allowed last year, let alone the 86.6 mph from two years ago. Peralta’s barrel rate was 3.5% last year and six percent the year before and hard hits were at a very thin 31.3% and 31.1%, there is clearly something going on with the righty. Peralta is throwing his four-seamer harder and with more spin this year, reaching a 94.5 mph average and posting a 26.1% whiff rate which is up from 24.9% last year. His .500 slugging percentage allowed on the pitch is problematic, his .429 xSLG mark is better but not great, and his .478 actual and .458 xSLG on the slider are not great marks either. Peralta’s slider induced a 30.2% whiff rate last year and it is way up at 45.9% this season but the pitch was in the .300s for slugging and expected slugging last year, as was his fastball. He is getting fewer whiffs on both his curveball and changeup, but the fastball-slider combination makes up roughly 75% of his pitch mix. Peralta is throwing the two pitches effectively but somehow his overall strikeout rate is down from 27.1% to 25.5% with a swinging-strike rate that is up from 12.2% to just 12.6% and a lower CSW%. So, his numbers are just as frustrating as the reality of the starter. Very little with Peralta makes sense right now, he is throwing his two primary pitches for better and worse results simultaneously. Overall, the starter continues to project well in our model, he is among the leading options on the slate for $9,300/$9,900 against the lousy Guardians lineup that ranks dead last in our projected points model. Cleveland’s lineup is good at avoiding strikeouts, which plays against Peralta’s ceiling, but they are bad at creating runs and hitting for power, there is a window for the righty to post clean innings in a big enough pile to matter for MLB DFS if nothing else tonight. Cleveland’s skippable lineup includes Steven Kwan, a speed and on-base specialist who has not been good at either so far this season. Kwan has a 97 WRC+ and costs $4,200/$3,200, he belongs in Guardians stacks but they are an extremely low-priority play. Amed Rosario is an affordable shortstop who has underperformed badly in a bad lineup. Rosario has one home run and a 2.3% barrel rate this season. Jose Ramirez has hit 12 home runs and remains the team’s lone star player. Ramirez has created runs 32% better than average and is cheap for his talent, he should be in most Cleveland stacks and is the only truly viable one-off in this lineup. Josh Naylor has nine home runs while slashing a robust .290/.332/.457 and creating runs 12% better than average as the team’s second-best bat. Naylor costs $4,000/$3,300 at first base on both sites. Josh Bell is also a first baseman, he comes cheaper at $2,900/$2,400 with seven home runs in his ledger this season. Andres Gimenez, Will Brennan, Myles Straw, and Bo Naylor round out the projected lineup. Gimenez is a disappointing middle infielder who should be a home run and speed threat but has not been. Brennan is a low-end option having an OK season, Straw is here for speed and defense, and Naylor is a rookie catcher with mid-range power potential at the plate.
Play: Freddy Peralta, Tanner Bibee, Brewers bats/stacks
Update Notes:
Kansas City Royals (+231/3.48) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-258/5.65)
The Royals and Rays are a mismatched pair in their battle in Tampa Bay today. The Kansas City squad comes to town with Jordan Lyles on the mound and a 3.48-run implied total on the board in Vegas against a Rays team that has a 5.65-run total and righty Yonny Chirinos going for them. Chirinos has made three starts and has thrown 43 total innings in a hybrid role, he should be expected to throw around 80-90 pitches today and has some upside at $6,600/$6,300. The play is primarily an option on the DraftKings slate, where Chirinos makes for a viable SP2 option at a value price, he is a more challenging play on FanDuel where he may not book the innings for a quality start bonus. Chirinos has a 2.72 ERA but a 5.37 xFIP in his short season so far, he has struck out just 11.6% with a 6.6% swinging-strike rate but has limited home runs to 1.74% with a 7.4% barrel rate. Chirinos is not high-end, but the Royals can help anyone find a few extra whiffs, if he can avoid their power there is minor potential for the price where two pitchers and a catcher are required. Nick Pratto leads off for Kansas City, the lefty is at .273/.360/.426 with five home runs in a dip since we last looked at him. His 118 WRC+ is still strong but he is striking out far too much at 35.5% despite his 10.4% barrel rate and 45.3% hard-hit rate. Bobby Witt Jr. has 12 home runs and 22 stolen bases and has pulled his way up to a 94 WRC+ on his way back to league average. Witt costs $5,600/$3,500 and fits into lineups easily at shortstop when stacking Royals. Maikel Garcia is projected to hit third with Sal Perez out of the lineup today. Garcia costs $3,100/$2,900 with shortstop and third base eligibility on both sites, he has a 105 WRC+ over 171 plate appearances with two homers and 10 steals. MJ Melendez has thunder on the left side with an 11.8% barrel rate and 51.8% hard hits, but he has turned that contact into just six home runs and a .134 ISO that should be far higher. Edward Olivares costs $2,800/$2,500 in the outfield, he has five home runs and seven stolen bases with a good 16.4% strikeout rate. Nicky Lopez, Samad Taylor, Freddy Fermin, and Drew Waters round out the low-end Royals lineup, without several of their best bats this is not a great option for stacking.
The Rays are a great option for stacking. The team is likely to be quite popular in a matchup against Lyles. The veteran righty has a 6.72 ERA and 5.41 xFIP in 15 starts and 85.2 innings this year, he has been a target for bats all season. Lyles has allowed a 4.90% home run rate with a 10.9% barrel rate and a 20.3-degree average launch angle that might as well be a batting tee. The hard-hitting excellent Rays lineup has major upside against this starter, they are deserving of their popularity and there are several very strong plays at good prices who also carry multi-position eligibility in the dynamic lineup. The projected version of the Tampa Bay lineup opens as usual with Yandy Diaz who is sitting at .309/.398/.516 with a .207 ISO and 12 home runs while creating runs 62% better than average this year. Diaz has not hit for as much power in June as he did earlier in the year, but his WRC+ for the month is 114 and he has maintained a strong triple-slash. Luke Raley has a team-leading 12.97 in our home run model, he sits ahead of both Diaz at 10.76 and Randy Arozarena at 11.45. Raley has 12 home runs in 192 plate appearances, the lefty has a 19.6% barrel rate and 50% hard-hit rate for the season and costs just $4,700/$3,300 at first base or in the outfield, he is likely to be the most popular hitter on this team. Arozarena is the team’s true star, he has 14 home runs and nine stolen bases with a 162 WRC+ that is identical to both Diaz and Raley. Arozarena costs $6,000/$4,200 in the outfield, he is well worth the effort at those prices, his 16.1% barrel rate and 50.3% hard-hit rate play well against this starter, and basically anyone. Isaac Paredes is looking like a steal in the Rays’ trade with the Tigers last season, Paredes has 13 home runs and a .224 ISO in 267 opportunities this season and still costs only $4,400/$3,300. Josh Lowe is a lefty with power upside, he has 11 home runs and 18 stolen bases in an outstanding season to date. Lowe costs $4,800/$3,500 in the outfield and is another player who is likely to draw significant and justified shares on both MLB DFS sites. Taylor Walls has seven home runs and 16 stolen bases and his name means the same thing that Paredes’ name means in Spanish. Jose Siri has 13 home runs and a 131 WRC+ for $4,100/$3,300. Siri has always been a frisky option for MLB DFS, he has seven stolen bases to go with the power output that has come in just 170 plate appearances, for his cheap pricing he is a strong buy at the bottom of the lineup. The projected lineup includes Francisco Mejia and Vidal Brujan, but the Rays like to mix things up.
Play: Rays bats/stacks aggressively, minor shares of Chirinos value
Update Notes:
Atlanta Braves (-137/6.52) @ Cincinnati Reds (+126/5.62)
If you missed Elly De La Cruz going from home plate to third base in the blink of an eye to complete his cycle last night, stop reading and watch, it won’t take long. The outstanding rookie pushed his legend even further with an outstanding performance last night and there is no hyperbole involved when we say we have never seen someone go from home to third so quickly and effortlessly as he does in that clip.
The Braves and Reds are carrying a total that matches Coors Field in their contest in Cincinnati this afternoon. The game is playing for DFS points projections in a big way, particularly on Atlanta’s side, but starter Graham Ashcraft is at least keeping Atlanta from averaging double-digit marks for home run upside. Ashcraft is not great at limiting power, but he is not awful for home runs either. He has a 3.03 % home run rate on 39.9% hard hits but only 6.1% barrels with a 7.8-degree launch angle and 88.6 mph of exit velocity this year. Last year he was better for contact with a 2.37% home run rate and 86.9 mph exit velocity as well as only a 4.8% barrel rate. Ashcraft is not a good starter, this is far from an endorsement of his talents, the pitcher has a 6.78 ERA and 4.74 xFIP this season, he has walked 10.1% and is only striking out 16.8%, this is a fantastic situation for the Braves and they have a 6.52-run implied total to lead the slate by a wide margin. The power-hitting lineup should mash today and they will almost definitely hit at least one home run, if not several. Ronald Acuna Jr. has 16 long balls and 33 stolen bases on the season, he is the best player in the game and costs $6,500/$4,600 in an amazing situation for hitting. Ozzie Albies is a great option at second base and in the second spot in this lineup, he has 17 home runs on the season with a .232 ISO while creating runs 15% better than average and still costs $5,000/$3,700 which is cheap given the promotion up the lineup. Austin Riley had a big Friday and should have a shot to repeat the trick this afternoon. The power-hitting third baseman has 13 home runs in 332 plate appearances while creating runs four percent better than average. Riley has a 45.3% hard-hit rate and 9.9% barrel rate and was better last year with a 50.8% hard-hit and 15.7% barrel rate, he is a major power hitter who had 38 home runs in 2022 and 33 in 2021. Matt Olson has 23 home runs this year with a .288 ISO on the left side of the plate. The first baseman costs $5,900/$4,000 with a 9.51 in our home run model that feels like it should be higher. Marcell Ozuna costs $4,100/$3,000 in the outfield, he is cheap for a player carrying 14 current-year home runs and a .236 ISO with a 113 WRC+. Ozuna strikes out at just a 21.3% clip and walks at 10.6% this season, his triple-slash is up to .240/.323/.476 and he is doing a bit beyond just hitting long balls. Travis d’Arnaud continues to fill in while Sean Murphy is banged up, he is a good hitter in his own right with five home runs in 120 plate appearances this year. Eddie Rosario is slashing .274/.318/.522 with a .248 ISO and 13 home runs while creating runs 21% better than average in an excellent return to form. Rosario was featured in this space this week for a reminder on how good he has been in his career, none of this is a surprise to see from the outfielder who is just 31 years old. Orlando Arcia and Michael Harris II are probably our two favorite eight and nine hitters in the league. Harris had a terrible start to his season but has six home runs and eight stolen bases and is all the way up to .254/.308/.403 with a 91 WRC+, Arcia has been very good all year as a cheap multi-position option.
The Reds’ exciting lineup has been absolutely on fire and has now won 12 straight games to charge to the top of the NL Central. Cincinnati is facing lefty Jared Shuster who has not been at all good on the mound this season. Shuster is looking like a target for Cincinnati bats in this matchup, he has a 13.1% strikeout rate and 12.6% walk rate with a 4.57 ERA and 6.20 xFIP this year. The lefty has allowed 40.3% hard hits and 90.3 mph of exit velocity so far this year but has somehow managed to avoid home runs and barrels with just a 5.4% barrel rate and 1.14% home run rate. Shuster seems likely to come out of this one with a bigger home run rate, the scorching Reds have tons of talent and power in their lineup. Kevin Newman has three home runs and five stolen bases while creating runs 13% worse than average overall this season, but he is effective in the leadoff role ahead of options like Matt McLain and Jonathan India. McLain is a rookie with three home runs and four steals while creating runs 23% better than average over his first 161 plate appearances. He is slashing .306/.366/.476 and costs just $4,600/$3,500 at shortstop. India fills second base quite well, he has 10 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 337 opportunities while creating runs eight percent better than average for just $5,000/$3,600. Elly De La Cruz slots in at $5,700/$4,200 with eligibility at third base and shortstop. The burgeoning superstar has a 52.4% barrel rate, he hit the second-hardest struck ball in Reds history (in the Statcast era) last night in reaching his cycle. De La Cruz has three home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 181 WRC+ in 67 plate appearances in his career. Spencer Steer and Joey Votto coexist nicely as a righty-lefty tandem in the Reds lineup. Steer costs $4,600/$3,400 with eligibility at first base and in the outfield, Votto lands at $4,800/$2,800 at first base. Steer has 10 home runs and seven steals with a 118 WRC+ in 310 opportunities, Votto has three home runs in 16 plate appearances since returning on Wednesday. Nick Senzel, Tyler Stephenson, TJ Freidl, or anyone else who lands at the bottom of the lineup are in play for mix-and-match situational shares at the very least. Senzel has an 82 WRC+, Stephenson is at 83 and Friedl is the best in the group with a 127 WRC+ over 209 plate appearances.
Play: bats bats bats, pretend that it’s a Coors game
Update Notes:
Boston Red Sox (-119/4.45) @ Chicago White Sox (+110/4.14)
The game in Chicago is a duel of veteran arms with righty Lance Lynn taking the ball for the White Sox and James Paxton on the mound for the visiting Red Sox. The advantage is with Boston’s lefty hurler, who has racked up a 32.7% strikeout rate and 3.29 ERA with a 3.08 xFIP in his first seven starts since his incredible comeback. Paxton missed most of the baseball between 2019 and seven starts ago, but the lefty came back as though he had never left. Paxton allowed three runs including a home run but struck out seven in another good outing against the Twins earlier this week, he went 6.1 innings and gave up just three hits in the matchup and will look to repeat that type of start against the scuffling White Sox. Lynn, meanwhile, has not been as good. The righty has a 26.9% strikeout rate but he has been hit hard and has allowed too many runs with a 6.51 ERA and 4.75% home run rate on 10.4% barrels and 40.4% hard hits. Overall, Lynn is not entirely washed by any means, he still has a 3.84 xFIP under all of the struggles and his 13% swinging-strike rate remains outstanding, the veteran has just run into a lot of incidental high-end contact this year and gotten somewhat unlucky in spots. Lynn is facing a good Red Sox lineup that is showing a bit of upside for power and run creation against him in this spot, but it would not be shocking to see him post a strong score at $7,800/$8,700, he is not out of our player pool by any means, though he projects only in the lower-mid portion of the board. The Red Sox stack is carrying our second-highest aggregate projection against the righty. Boston’s confirmed lineup includes Jarren Duran in the leadoff spot. The productive lefty outfielder has three home runs and 11 stolen bases while getting on base at a .344 clip and creating runs 13% better than average in 209 plate appearances. Duran is a good option for the leadoff role with Alex Verdugo still on the bereavement list, he makes far more sense than yesterday’s choice, Rob Refsnyder. Justin Turner and Masataka Yoshida both have power and very strong hit tools, they are a good combination on either side of the plate. Turner hits from the right side and has 11 home runs in the second spot in the lineup, Yoshida follows from the left side with eight home runs while slashing .307/.377/.479 and striking out just 10.6% of the time. All three players can create MLB DFS points on their own, but if they only manage to get on base there is a superstar power hitter lurking in the cleanup role to knock them in. Rafael Devers went deep last night for his 18th home run, he has a good shot at number 19, if not 20, this afternoon. Devers has a team-leading 11.41 in our home run model, he has a .249 ISO and 107 WRC+ on the season and is worth every bit of salary he demands at third base. Adam Duvall has significant right-handed power over time, he has hit five home runs in just 84 opportunities this year after missing most of the early part of the season with an injury, though several of the home runs came in the first week of the season before he was hurt. Duvall is cheap with a 10.86 in our home run model. Triston Casas is the confirmed sixth hitter in the lineup, he has light tower power from the left side and makes premium contact when he connects. Casas has a 14.1% barrel rate and eight home runs in 252 plate appearances. Christian Arroyo, David Hamilton, and Connor Wong round out the lineup as playable parts, Wong’s contact profile is a good buy as a cheap unowned power bat at the catcher position.
Chicago will be facing Paxton in this matchup, we will be rostering the pitcher at $10,300/$10,100, he projects as one of the leading options on the board with all of the quality that was mentioned above and he seems likely to be at best a second-tier option by popularity, which creates tournament opportunities. Paxton has a lane to land as the top overall pitcher on either site this afternoon, he is a good buy in this spot but a few hedge stacks of White Sox are a good idea as well. If nothing else, Chicago is showing upside for power among their right-handed hitters. The confirmed Chicago lineup has both Andrew Benintendi and Tim Anderson at the top, the struggling veterans have tons of quality when they are going right but they are at 95 and 59 WRC+ marks respectively for the season with one home run and 17 stolen bases between them. Luis Robert Jr. has a 13.53 in our home run model and is our home run pick for the slate. The slugging outfielder has 18 long balls and a .266 ISO in his breakout season and he should not be very popular against Paxton for $4,900/$3,200. Eloy Jimenez has right-handed pop at the plate as well, the star outfielder has a 50.8% hard-hit rate and 12.5% barrel rate with nine home runs on the season. Andrew Vaughn has hit 11 dingers with a .195 ISO and 112 WRC+ over his 314 plate appearances, he has been good filling first base for the scuffling squad this season. Yasmani Grandal slots into the lineup at catcher for just $3,100/$2,400, he is not getting on base at the elite levels he once did, but he has a bit of power with five home runs in the books this season. Grandal is a mix-in option behind the plate for value. Jake Burger has 16 home runs and a .314 ISO on the season, those numbers will not last all year but he remains cheap for someone with his contact profile and power ceiling at $3,900/$2,800 at third base. Clint Frazier slots in for $2,100 on either site, the post-post-hype outfielder is slashing .204/.317/.259 with a 69 WRC+ and four stolen bases. Elvis Andrus has a 51 WRC+ in 205 chances, everyone else must have missed the team bus.
Play: James Paxton, Red Sox bats/stacks, Lance Lynn in small value shares, a few hedge White Sox shares
Update Notes:
Pittsburgh Pirates (+132/3.92) @ Miami Marlins (-144/4.68)
The final game of the afternoon starts a whopping five minutes after the first one in what will be a sprint to the finish this afternoon, which makes for fun DFS sweats. The Pirates and Marlins square off in Miami with righty Brian Hoeing on the hill for the home team. Hoeing has a 21.4% strikeout rate with a 7.9% walk rate over 30 innings in three starts and some bullpen work. The righty has a 2.70 ERA and 4.16 xFIP but he is probably not going to pitch beyond the fourth or fifth inning. Hoeing posted four clean innings in his last outing, a true start against the Blue Jays in which he struck out five hitters. At $6,900/$5,700 this does not seem like a great spot to roster Hoeing for MLB DFS purposes. The Pirates lineup is confirmed with Josh Palacios at the top, the outfielder has made 68 plate appearances with a 94 WRC+ and .266/.309/.406 triple-slash for $2,100 on either site. Andrew McCutchen costs $4,600/$2,800 in the outfield, he has nine home runs and nine stolen bases with a 121 WRC+ in 268 chances this year, he has been good but slouching somewhat in recent weeks. Jack Suwinski has 15 home runs with a .266 ISO and 17.7% barrel rate on the season. The outfielder has been mashing all season and costs just $3,500/$2,900 in a good spot on the left side of the plate, he has a 10.63 to lead the Pirates in our home run model. Carlos Santana and Ke’Bryan Hayes are capable hitters who have underperformed for most of this season at just 87 and 86 WRC+ in full samples of 280 and 298 plate appearances. Hayes has a 47.3% hard-hit rate but only five home runs and a .145 ISO. Rookie Henry Davis checks in with a home run in his 19 plate appearances, he has speed and power in the outfield but has already lost catcher eligibility on DraftKings, he still fills both positions on FanDuel where it matters less. Davis is a stud prospect who has a 50% hard-hit rate in his tiny sample so far. Tucupita Marcano, Nick Gonzales, and Jason Delay round out the confirmed Pirates batting order in low-end but playable for value style.
The Marlins are carrying a healthy 4.68-run implied team total against Osvaldo Bido this afternoon. Miami has been productive at the plate this year, the top of their lineup has several talented hitters with strong MLB DFS appeal at prices that land around the value range when averaged down. Bido is a righty with a 28.9% strikeout rate but an 11.1% walk rate over 10 innings in two starts. Bido has a 3.60 ERA and 3.58 xFIP and has yet to allow a home run or a barrel in the Show, but his 42.3% hard-hit rate is suggestive of available power. Bido went just four innings in his first start, striking out six Cubs hitters while allowing one run on four hits and three walks. His second outing also came against Chicago, he lasted six innings that time out while striking out seven and walking two but allowing three runs on five hits. Bido is not bereft of upside at $7,400/$7,600, he is a 27-year-old non-prospect but he has been an effective one-in-four strikeout pitcher throughout his minor league run and has demonstrated ability in the Show in the tiny sample. The Marlins are not the ’27 Yankees, there is a bit of a chance for a few clean innings with a handful of strikeouts for Bido, but he will be hard-pressed to get through the top two hitters in this lineup three times without damage. Elite Luis Arraez is a joy to watch on the field, over 299 plate appearances he is slashing .402/.452/.487 while creating runs 60% better than average as the best hit-tool-focused player in the game. Arraez gets on base at an elite clip ahead of masher Jorge Soler who has hit 21 home runs and has a .282 ISO in 308 opportunities this year. Soler has a 16.9% barrel rate, he has been one of the better power hitters in baseball for several years and had 27 home runs in 602 chances two years ago before struggling somewhat with just 13 in 306 chances in 2021. The righty costs just $5,400/$3,900, Arraez is at just $4,900/$3,300, they are an absolute bargain that can be rostered in tandem again and again. Bryan De La Cruz and Jesus Sanchez join the party from the third and fourth spots in the confirmed lineup. De La Cruz has been very good this season at .275/.324/.418 with eight home runs and a 104 WRC+ in 299 plate appearances but he is already at best the second-best De La Cruz in the league. The outfielder is a good buy in Marlins stacks at $4,100/$2,700. Sanchez was hurt for a stretch but has been good over 155 plate appearances with six home runs and three stolen bases with a .214 ISO and 123 WRC+ overall, though he has not fully hit his stride since returning to the lineup. Garret Cooper, Yuli Gurriel, and Joey Wendle are capable hitters for cheap prices and low popularity. Cooper has the most power in the group and has nine home runs but a lousy triple-slash on the season, Gurriel and Wendle are hit-tool oriented with mixed results. Jacob Stallings and Jon Berti round out the lineup, Berti is an interesting cheap wraparound option as a cheap differentiator for Arraez-Soler pairings, he can provide speed and on-base acumen ahead of those two stars in the second turn through the lineup and beyond.
Play: Marlins bats/stacks, minor shares of Bido value if you feel it
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