This article focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within the industry’s optimization tools. All of the concepts and pairings included below can also apply to hand-building. The goal is to create lineups with strong correlations among likely point-scorers to maximize the gains from infrequent scoring events within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.
This video was made in a former life and features a detailed demonstration of how to apply these concepts in one leading optimizer tool: Fantasy Cruncher – How-To Video
All references to Sims were done via friends of the site: acemind.io
Don’t miss the Above/Below feature article for a few of our top picks, coming Sunday morning
Game notes are updated during the week and initially posted as “work in progress” as they take a long time to create, if teams are missing notes simply check back later in the day/week and they should be updated.
2024 Week 2 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stack Rankings
The following stack rankings were created by pairing each team quarterback with his top three scoring options, whether they are three wide receivers, two wide receivers and a tight end, a wide receiver, tight end, and running back, or any viable combination. In some cases, an expensive running back, such as Tony Pollard, can push the overall price point of his team stack in the value rankings.
| TEAM | OPP | FD$ | FDpRank | FDvalRank | DK$ | DkpRank | DKvalRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | JAC | $30,500 | 1 | 1 | $27,600 | 1 | 4 |
| CIN | CAR | $31,300 | 2 | 8 | $26,100 | 2 | 3 |
| ARI | WAS | $29,700 | 3 | 3 | $25,000 | 3 | 1 |
| PHI | TB | $31,600 | 4 | 16 | $25,300 | 5 | 5 |
| SF | NE | $31,600 | 5 | 17 | $26,200 | 6 | 12 |
| MIN | GB | $30,100 | 6 | 12 | $25,900 | 4 | 7 |
| BAL | BUF | $30,000 | 7 | 14 | $0 | 0 | 0 |
| NYJ | DEN | $28,800 | 8 | 5 | $25,200 | 7 | 6 |
| BUF | BAL | $29,100 | 9 | 6 | $0 | 0 | 0 |
| KC | LAC | $29,000 | 10 | 7 | $25,600 | 9 | 14 |
| NO | ATL | $29,200 | 11 | 11 | $25,500 | 8 | 10 |
| WAS | ARI | $26,900 | 12 | 4 | $22,200 | 13 | 2 |
| GB | MIN | $26,200 | 13 | 2 | $23,600 | 12 | 8 |
| TB | PHI | $28,900 | 14 | 19 | $26,200 | 10 | 19 |
| ATL | NO | $27,700 | 15 | 15 | $23,800 | 11 | 9 |
| CLE | LV | $25,400 | 16 | 10 | $22,600 | 16 | 13 |
| IND | PIT | $27,100 | 17 | 21 | $24,400 | 15 | 20 |
| JAC | HOU | $25,500 | 18 | 13 | $23,300 | 14 | 16 |
| CHI | LAR | $26,200 | 19 | 20 | $23,600 | 17 | 18 |
| LAR | CHI | $26,100 | 20 | 23 | $22,800 | 20 | 22 |
| LV | CLE | $23,900 | 21 | 9 | $21,600 | 18 | 15 |
| PIT | IND | $24,500 | 22 | 18 | $20,700 | 19 | 11 |
| CAR | CIN | $24,900 | 23 | 22 | $21,400 | 21 | 17 |
| LAC | KC | $25,700 | 24 | 26 | $21,500 | 22 | 24 |
| DEN | NYJ | $22,800 | 25 | 24 | $19,900 | 23 | 21 |
| NE | SF | $23,600 | 26 | 25 | $19,900 | 24 | 23 |
Week 2 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stacks & Optimizer Groups
Overview
Rules and limits are powerful tools for lineup creation for NFL DFS where our primary focus is creating highly correlated lineups via stacking players from the same game. Lineups will typically be coordinated around the quarterback selection, which informs at least one pass-catcher choice, establishes a budget, eliminates a defense, and sets the tone for the lineup. We will typically look to correlate a quarterback and at least one of his pass-catchers in every lineup, with many of those including a skill player from the opposing team. This player is included to support the stack in a high-scoring game that drives offense on both sides, creating additional correlated scoring potential. Stacking multiple pass-catchers in the same lineup is a sound approach, though there are typically overall ceilings on how much volume is available at any given position. While pass-catching running backs can be prioritized in stacks and group tools, including running backs who are not involved in the passing game is less important at this stage, they will fall naturally into shares as needed. High-volume backs and pass catchers out of the backfield can be included in the groups utilized below, but it is frequently not necessary to do so with the very best players, they arrive in lineups without help.
Rules and limits are typically applied in an optimizer’s Advanced Options menu. Notes are included to illustrate the reasons behind each rule and explain what it does during the lineup creation process. These settings can typically be saved for re-use, which is highly recommended. Saving the groups created below is also a good idea that will save time with updates instead of recreation each week. These groups are created manually, but most optimizers include automated group creators that can help accelerate the curation process.
DraftKings + FanDuel Settings & Advanced Options
Note – Terminology may vary from site to site but these are common functions across most industry tools.
Unique Players Per Lineup– This setting forces the optimizer to utilize at least X new players who were not in Lineup 1 when it creates Lineup 2, and so on. We recommend a setting of at least two unique players, more can be applied depending on the degree of differentiation desired within lineups.
Team Salary– a minimum or maximum salary spend can be applied here as needed, although leaving salary on the table is an easy path toward creating unique lineups while not necessarily making a negative expected value play.
FLEX position– allows restrictions on what positions can be rostered at the FLEX spot. The primary position to restrict is the tight end so that lineups do not include two players from the position. In many industry tools this is a separate option via a checkbox, it can also be handled specifically within groups.
Global Exposure Setting – allows caps on the maximum percentage of lineups a player can appear in within a given pool of lineup construction. This is a powerful tool for shaping lineups but if settings are too low, attempts to build a full set will fall short due to a lack of available players, one of the most common errors in optimizer building. Most optimizers include the ability to calculate ownership caps continuously or at the end of the pool creation process. If caps are calculated continuously, a player with a 25% cap who is utilized in Lineup 1 will not be available for use again until Lineup 5, we recommend turning OFF continuous calculation.
Randomness – provides a random multiplier to each player’s projected point total based on the set values. This valuable tool helps differentiate lineups instead of simply creating them in order of the highest median projected scores. Using some randomness for lineup generation is strongly recommended but the degree to which it is applied is down to personal preference, 15-25% is fine to get started. We suggest heavier randomness to more event-based players like wide receivers while tracking volume-based positions like running backs more toward their median or ceiling projections.
DraftKings + FanDuel Team Stack Rules
This set of rules will force optimizers to build lineups with certain combinations. We are looking to stack at least one skill player, almost always a pass-catcher, with his quarterback while frequently playing a skill player from the opposing team in the lineup. The theory behind this build is that a high-scoring stack will require some response from the opposing team to deliver a ceiling score in most situations. Most optimizers utilize a “complete the sentence” approach for rule creation with selections from drop-down menus following a very straightforward logic. Exceptions to these rules can be added for specific teams and players on most optimizer products.
- QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It is fine to set this to two or to utilize two versions of this rule, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can also refine this via Groups)
- optional – QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from the Opposing Team (we typically prefer the pass-catchers but high-volume running backs can be effective here)
- QB with at most zero DST from the Same Team (this is a personal preference; high-scoring teams and quarterbacks tend to leave their defenses on the field, exposing them to simple point-scoring negatives)
Limits & Custom Rules and Requirements
Limit rules can be applied to restrict certain combinations from coming together. This is powerful for limiting multiple running backs from the same team or getting overweight to a certain stack within a lineup.
- Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
- Limit RB/WR/TE from the Same Team to one unless paired with QB from the Same Team OR the Opposing Team (this prevents multiple players from a team that is not a primary quarterback-based stack)
- optional – Limit RB from Same Team to one (we can also do this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s a personal preference for NFL DFS, we typically do not want two pass-catchers from the same team without their quarterback)
We will maintain the list of rules and limits throughout the season, with occasional tweaks. Each week sees another fresh crop of value plays as situations change and injuries create opportunities around the league. These changing roles and emergent value plays are accounted for in the process of creating these groups from week to week. After a large pool of lineups is created utilizing these groups, it is still of critical importance to filter them for factors including ceiling projections and leverage potential. These groups should help ensure that a highly correlated premium set of options that rotates through a variety of combinations is utilized to create the full lineup pool.
Sunday Updates
Any changes and recommended boosts to specific players will be provided in an early morning update each Sunday.
NFL DFS Week 2 Features & FREE Projections
- Week 2 FanDuel & DraftKings Projections
- Week 2 Above/Below – Key Picks
- Week 2 Quarterback Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 2 Running Back Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 2 Pass-Catcher Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 2 Defense Scoring & Value Rankings
Construction Concept
Team groups are built by utilizing the quarterback as the KEY player in group settings. The quarterback decision is the driving factor in determining which stack the lineup utilizes and which corresponding plays are made to work within the structured requirements. In Fantasy Cruncher, built to specification, each team will have two groups, a team group, and an opponent group, both of which utilize the same quarterback as the key player. Each game will have a total of four groups. This is the best approach to truly capture the requirement of playing individual “run-back” plays from the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to include all of the skill players from a game in each quarterback’s group and rely on rules and limits to restrict any potential overflow. It is highly recommended to save the early season groups as a foundation that will be updated for the rest of the season. The recommended groups will include skill players who have an active role in their offense and provide significant correlation with their quarterback’s scoring, often bell-cow running backs who do not specialize in the passing game will not be included in groups as they are projected highly and appear on their own in basically correct distributions, while also not always providing the strongest positive correlation plays. Stacking quarterbacks with pass-catchers and allowing running backs to fall into the lanes created by settings, available salary, and randomness should create a well-distributed set of quality lineups. These groups are updated weekly to account for changes in utilization, schemes, injuries, target shares, and more.
Team Groups for DraftKings & FanDuel – Week 2
The goal is to create a large pool of well-built lineups that can be utilized in any large-field GPP contest. Our approach is to build far more lineups than needed and utilize a sorting table or sim process to filter to the best set of entries. The lineups created in these crunches should provide a broad distribution that includes some of the lower-owned high-upside skill players from each stack. Applying boosts is critical in pushing and pulling ownership to individual players within their team’s stacked lineups if they appear too much or too little.
The groups below are designed so that each quarterback will have two groups to create, one with his skill players and another with the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to add them all to one large group with an “at least three” and let rules and limits set things, but there is a more granular level of control in creating them separately.
Utilizing two groups also allows us to place running backs into the “run-back” position in certain teams while not including them in the primary stack for their team. This is useful when there is a situation with an extremely highly projected running back who does not necessarily fit into his team’s passing game. These players are threaded throughout the following construction recommendations.
Note for all optimizers the rules can be utilized to force bring-back plays in some sets of crunches and turned off for others as a global function instead of changing each group to “exactly one” bring-back play, wherever applicable, but it will apply to all teams.
Arizona Cardinals
Key Player: Kyler Murray
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride, James Connor, Greg Dortch, Michael Wilson
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Cooper Kupp, Demarcus Robinson, Kyren Williams, Colby Parkinson, Tyler Johnson
Lineup Notes: The Cardinals are coming off of a hard-fought high-scoring 34-28 loss to the Bills in Week 1 and they land in another potential shootout with a 47.5-point total on the board at home against the Rams this week. Arizona’s Kyler Murray threw for just 162 yards on 21-31 passing with a single touchdown with an intended air yards per attempt mark of just 6.4. Murray ran the ball five times and gained 11.4 yards per attempt to pad fantasy scoring somewhat. The quarterback works with playable skill options including running back James Conner who carried the ball 16 times for 3.1 yards per attempt with a rushing touchdown, adding three catches for 8.3 yards per attempt while playing 67% of the team’s snaps. Conner is a strong option at the position on FanDuel, where he ranks 5th by points-per-dollar value while sitting 14th by raw fantasy points among running backs. On DraftKings he RB14/13 and has less appeal. Rookie first-round pick Marvin Harrison Jr. had a quiet debut, despite playing 90% of the snaps, Harrison hauled in just one of three targets for four yards on a 10.3-yard average depth of target. Harrison should provide significantly more in Week 2, given the skillset and draft capital invested in the player. Murray’s top targets in Week 1 were premium tight end Trey McBride, who caught five of nine balls for just 30 yards and did not score, and Greg Dortch, who was targeted eight times and caught six passes for 47 yards to lead the receiver corps with 5.9 yards per target. Michael Wilson hauled in Murray’s lone passing touchdown and played 80% of the team’s offensive snaps but was targeted only twice in the offense. Wilson and Dortch are mid-level options at the receiver spot while McBride remains a strong weekly tight end option. Backup running back Trey Benson saw limited touches on the ground, while Emari Demarcado and Elijah Higgins received two targets each in the passing game, none of the three are overly appealing in Week 2. The Rams allowed 5.3 yards per rush attempt and 7.1 yards per pass attempt in Week 1, ranking them 27th and 22nd respectively, the Cardinals should be expected to produce offense this week. Arizona ranks 8/16 for fantasy points and points-per-dollar value on DraftKings while landing as stack 9/7 on the blue site.
Baltimore Ravens
Key Player: Lamar Jackson
Setting: at most two (this allows for “naked” Lamar Jackson stacks)
Team Group: Zay Flowers, Isaiah Likely, Rashod Bateman, Justice Hill, Mark Andrews, Nelson Agholor
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Davante Adams, Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, Alexander Mattison, Zamir White
Lineup Notes: Baltimore ranks as stack 6 by points and 9 by value on the DraftKings slate and 7/10 on FanDuel when including running back Derrick Henry, who offers a limited presence in the passing game. Quarterback Lamar Jackson is one of the most highly projected options at the position this week, he ranks as QB1/11 on DraftKings and QB1/4 on FanDuel. Jackson threw the ball 41 times for 6.7 yards per pass attempt and 273 total yards in Week 1 but was limited to just one passing touchdown. The star signal-caller also ran the ball for a whopping 122 yards, racking up 7.6 yards per attempt on 16 carries. Jackson supplanted most of the rushing game in the season’s first week, Henry carried the ball just 13 times, gaining 3.5 yards per attempt including 1.4 yards before and 2.2 yards after contact per attempt. Henry scored a rushing touchdown that is crucial to his weekly value, when he fails to do so he will likely disappoint even as a mid-level price play. Zay Flowers drew Jackson’s eye far more frequently than any of the Ravens’ other wide receivers with 10 targets but the team’s second tight end, Isaiah Likely, led Baltimore with a massive 12 targets in Week 1, garnering 36.7% of the team’s air yards. Likely came away with a touchdown and 9.3 yards per target, posting 111 yards for the game. Flowers caught six of the 10 targets he received but only managed 37 yards on a 5.7-yard ADOT and 20.22% of the team’s air yards. Flowers remains a key target for Jackson and should lead this team’s receivers most weeks. Mark Andrews was limited to just two targets, catching both for 14 total yards. Rashod Bateman played 84% of Baltimore’s snaps, catching two of five targets for 53 yards on a team-leading 24.0-yard ADOT and a whopping 44.94% of the air yard share. Bateman is a true downfield threat but he is wildly inconsistent as a fantasy contributor. Underappreciated passing-down back Justice Hill added six catches on eight targets for 52 yards, 6.5 yards per target, operating entirely on short passes. The balance of the Ravens depth chart saw limited to no opportunities for NFL DFS scoring output in Week 1, they are likely to land similarly in Week 2. Running Lamar Jackson “naked” in lineups in which he is not stacked with a correlated pass-catcher is a viable approach, but we prefer pairing the quarterback with at least one of his pass-catchers, including Hill, but primarily either Flowers, Likely, of a downfield threat like Bateman. Derrick Henry can be utilized as a standalone running back in lineups that are not stacked with Ravens.
Carolina Panthers
Key Player: Bryce Young
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen, Xavier Legette, Jonathan Mingo, Ja’Tavion Sanders, David Moore (very large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: JK Dobbins, Ladd McConkey, Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnston
Lineup Notes: The Panthers rank as one of the bottom teams on Sunday’s slate, this will be a common theme throughout the season. Carolina lands as stack 25/24 on DraftKings and 27/24 on the FanDuel slate. Quarterback Bryce Young sits near the bottom of his position’s rankings and none of the team’s skill players are particular standouts. Young threw 30 passes on Sunday, completing just 13 for 161 yards while throwing two interceptions and failing to complete a touchdown pass. Young has had an awful start to his NFL career and has rarely if ever looked the part of an NFL quarterback, he is unlikely to do so against even a relatively soft Chargers’ pass defense. Los Angeles ranked 20th, allowing 6.8 yards per pass attempt to open the season while stuffing the run for just 3.2 yards per rush attempt in Week 1. The Panthers do not bring much more to the ground game, the combination of Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders accounted for 11 carries for 36 yards combined, adding zero catches on only two targets, both going to Sanders. The limited running backs are in what looks like a relatively even timeshare, making their situation virtually unplayable, even at rock-bottom pricing; neither back offered much appeal in 2023 either. The Panthers spread their targets among Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen, and Xavier Legette, with Legette outdrawing the two veterans with a team-leading seven targets. The rookie caught four passes for 5.0 yards per target and was seeing a solid 16-yard ADOT, making him an interesting downfield option on volume and price. Johnson was targeted six times but caught only two for 19 yards, while Thielen caught three of four passes for 49 yards and drew 18.18% of the air yards. Legette led the team with 31.82% of the air yard share but all of the team’s receivers were getting their limited looks down the field. Jonathan Mingo came up with just two of his five targets but he managed to post 40 yards in the limited opportunity while playing 56% of the team’s snaps. Third-string tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders barely saw the ball despite playing 73% of the team’s snaps filling in for injured starters. The Panthers are a very low-end stack that does not even pick up contrarian or price-based quality, they are simply lousy as a stack. Given the potential for volume and the depth of targets, there is some cheap appeal in one-off options from the receiving corps, despite the poor delivery potential for passes that Young provides.
Chicago Bears – FanDuel only
Key Player: Caleb Williams
Setting: at most two (this allows for “naked” Williams stacks)
Team Group: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen (Q), D’Andre Swift, Rome Odunze (Q), Tyler Scott, DeAndre Carter, Cole Kmet, Velus Jones Jr. (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz
Lineup Notes: There is underwhelming, then there is Dune 2, and then there is whatever first-overall pick Caleb Williams did in his debut on Sunday. Williams was essentially non-competitive in his initial outing in the NFL, completing just 14 of 29 passes for 93 yards and no touchdowns, posting 3.2 yards per pass attempt and just 6.0 intended air yards per attempt. Williams ran the ball five times, gaining just 15 yards total and 0.6 yards after contact per attempt. Of course, everything we know about the player suggests that there is no reason to overreact to a poor debut, Williams has all of the tools needed to succeed in the modern NFL and he looks like a franchise quarterback in the making for Chicago. The limited performance has him priced at $6,900 on the FanDuel slate in a game that carries a solid 45.5-point total. Williams will be operating as an underdog to last year’s breakout rookie sensation quarterback CJ Stroud, he will be interesting to watch in a spotlight game and he draws a high projection on this slate. The rookie has a fantastic group of skill players to work with at all positions. Most quarterbacks would be spoiled to have one of DJ Moore or Keenan Allen in their wide receiver group, Williams gets both as a rookie. Moore was targeted eight times in Week 1, he caught five passes for 36 yards on a 6.6-yard ADOT and was mostly limited by the short opportunities and poor overall performance of this team. Allen drew a team-leading 11 targets, catching just four of them for 29 yards on a similar 6.6-yard average depth of target. Both receivers can take Williams far, but he has to do his part as well, the connection has to be made from both ends but the receivers are affordable and, given the volume, they can be paired in stacks. The Bears will potentially be without rookie standout Rome Odunze in Week 2, which could thrust even more opportunities toward the veterans. Tight end Cole Kmet saw just one opportunity in Week 1, he should be a regular option up and down the field with opportunities for scoring plays in the red zone through the season but will also be limited in games where Williams looks like a rookie. Tyler Scott and Velus Jones Jr. will see increased opportunities down the depth chart with the absence of Odunze, Jones is a player that drew carries at the running back position during the preseason, he could garner touches in multiple roles in Week 2. Running back D’Andre Swift carried the ball 10 times for 30 yards, putting up 1.7 yards before and 1.3 yards after contact per attempt in Week 1. No other running back carried the ball more than twice for Chicago, a team that ran just 53 plays in Week 1, 24th out of 32 teams. The Bears rank 12th by projected fantasy points but climb to 8th by points-per-dollar value on the FanDuel slate. Allen, Moore, and Swift are the priority options while Kmet is a realistic alternative tight end for a fair price. Update – Odunze is listed as questionable after practicing on Friday, while Allen has not practiced.
Cincinnati Bengals
Key Player: Joe Burrow
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Ja’Marr Chase, Zack Moss, Andrei Iosivas, Trenton Irwin, Mike Gesicki, Tanner Hudson, Chase Brown
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Isiah Pacheco, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce
Lineup Notes: The Bengals did not look good in their season opener. Cincinnati lost 16-10 to a weak New England squad despite the last-minute activation of superstar receiver Ja’Marr Chase who caught six of six passes for 62 yards on a limited 6.3-yard ADOT but did not score. Quarterback Joe Burrow looked limited in his return to action, completing 21 of 29 passes for just 164 yards with no touchdown passes. Burrow put up just 5.7 yards per pass attempt with 5.6 intended air yards per attempt. While that is not the performance we have come to expect from Burrow, we can forgive a lackluster return to action after a major injury while also working with a somewhat limited Chase and lacking Tee Higgins entirely. Higgins may miss Week 2 as well, he has not practiced throughout the week and his status will potentially be determined by his ability to take the field on Friday. Right now, we are projecting Higgins to sit again, which will thrust Andrei Iosivas into a prominent role again. The receiver is inexpensive at $3,800/$5,200, he caught three of six passes last week for 4.3 yards per target while drawing 27.78% of the team’s air yards and playing 100% of the team’s snaps on offense. With Chase pulling in 23.46% of the air yards and third wideout Trenton Irwin landing at 14.2%, the bulk of the team’s downfield opportunities are accounted for among the obvious scoring plays. If Higgins suits up, most of the action reverts to simple Chase and Higgins combinations at the position, with limited volume left for the others. Tight end could be a different story, Mike Gesicki saw four targets and a 17.28% air yards share in Week 1, catching three balls for 18 yards in a limited performance. On another night the volume could lead to more upside for the capable veteran tight end at a very inexpensive price. Gesicki splits time with Tanner Hudson, who also saw three targets in Week 1, but the former is the more downfield option at the position. Running back Zack Moss carried the ball nine times for 44 yards and a touchdown last week, putting up 4.9 yards per rush attempt while adding 17 yards on two of four receiving. Moss is the primary option, he played 65% of the team’s snaps while backup Chase Brown played 33%, carrying the ball three times for 11 yards and catching three passes for 12 more yards. Brown will see limited touches in passing situations and he will spell Moss for a few carries, but Moss is the clear number one on the ground in this offense. Cincinnati ranks just 17/21 on DraftKings and 19/23 on FanDuel in a game that sees them check into Kansas City as five-point underdogs in a game with a 47.5-point total. The Bengals’ outlook could improve with Higgins playing, early Friday morning they are not among the top considerations on the slate.
Cleveland Browns
Key Player: Deshaun Watson
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Jerome Ford, Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore, Jordan Akins, Pierre Strong Jr. (very large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Travis Etienne Jr., Evan Engram, Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas Jr., Gabe Davis
Lineup Notes: To say that a lot is going on with Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson would be an understatement of galactic proportions. In addition to severe struggles finding any sort of form on the football field after largely missing the past few seasons, Watson is also dealing with enough criminal sexual accusations to make him a viable political candidate. The quarterback will apparently be active for Week 2, he draws a mid-level projection against a defense that yielded a whopping 8.6 yards per pass attempt to rank 28th in football in Week 1. Watson managed to complete just 24 of 45 passes, wasting a significant chunk of passing volume in coming up with only 169 yards, 3.8 per pass attempt, for one touchdown and two interceptions. Watson carried the ball five times for an average of 7.8 yards per attempt, looking better as a runner than a thrower. The quarterback is not particularly expensive but he ranks as only QB21/21 on DraftKings and QB23/23 on FanDuel. Watson does have a solid group of receivers with B+ options Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy leading the way. The wide receiver tandem is not as good or accomplished as the Moore and Allen show in Chicago but they are capable receivers for a fair price if Watson can deliver the ball. Cooper saw nine of the team’s 45 pass attempts, hauling in only two of them but that came on a monster 18.9-yard ADOT, Watson and Cooper were looking to connect on deep passes which makes the tandem slightly more interesting than the numbers might suggest. The receiver garnered 45.7% of the team’s air yards while Jeudy was not far behind with 31.18% over his eight targets. The newcomer caught three passes for 3.1 yards per target on a 14.5-yard ADOT and was the recipient of Watson’s lone touchdown pass. In addition to the solid 1/1A receivers, Cleveland has Elijah Moore, who caught three of six passes and has some ability with the ball in his hands. Cedric Tillman was limited to just one target and Kadarius Toney is a new signing who may not see the field enough to drop a pass this week. Running back Jerome Ford got involved with 12 carries and another six touches through the passing game, giving him an appealing volume-based upside. Ford is a talented runner who found the end zone in Week 1, he is playable as a standalone option or in stacks, given his involvement in the passing game. Cleveland is a limited option by median projections but could gain ground when it comes to player-by-player ceiling against the Jaguars’ pass defense.
Dallas Cowboys
Key Player: Dak Prescott
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Rico Dowdle, Ezekiel Elliott, Jalen Tolbert, KaVontae Turpin (very large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson, Foster Moreau
Lineup Notes: The Saints’ defense began their season on the right foot against a soft opponent, allowing just 2.9 yards per rush attempt and 4.4 yards per pass attempt to sit 1st and 6th overall last week. In Week 2, the Cowboys should mount a stronger challenge than what was presented by the pushover Panthers in a 47-10 pounding. Last season, New Orleans had a middle-of-the-road pass defense and a solid rush defense, so the performance was not a complete outlier but the Panthers are an inept opponent. The quarterback difference between Bryce Young and Dak Prescott alone is worth a handful of points on the board. Prescott opened his season with a 19-for-32 performance for 179.0 yards and one touchdown in a limited outing. Prescott’s day amounted to 5.6 yards per pass attempt with 3.0 air yards per attempt but a huge 9.1 intended air yards per attempt. The quarterback is entirely capable of delivering the ball downfield to one of his premium weapons at the receiver position, he is in play for a stack that ranks 11th for points but 20th for value on DraftKings and 14/21 on FanDuel. Prescott threw 10 balls in CeeDee Lamb’s direction last week, the receiver caught five of them for 61 yards on a 10.7-yard ADOT for 42.13% of the team’s air yards share. Lamb is a star at the position, he is always on the board both as a standalone option and as the top priority Cowboys skill player, he ranks as WR2/17 on DraftKings and 2/14 on FanDuel at a high but worthwhile price. Dallas is favored by 6.0 in a home game with a 46.5-point total, there is strong support for the idea of scoring on both sides of this game and there should be enough scoring to support multiple options in stacks. Brandin Cooks was targeted seven times and scored a touchdown in Week 1 while tight end Jake Ferguson was less involved with 14.17% of the team’s air yards and just three catches on five targets. Jalen Tolbert and Ka’Vontae Turpin are dynamic players who see very limited opportunities to make plays, they are best deployed in very large field formats. The Cowboys ground game was split between veteran Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle, who was the preferred option of most of the industry heading into Week 1. Elliott came up with 10 carries for 40 yards and a touchdown, gaining 2.5 yards before and 1.5 yards after contact per carry. Dowdle carried the ball just eight times for 26 yards and caught just one pass in what looked like the secondary role at the position. Dowdle is the more talented of the two running backs but if the team will not put the ball in his hands he serves no purpose for NFL DFS, Elliott is limited at best, the path to Cowboys shares is predominantly through the air. Update: Ferguson will be out, Luke Schoonmaker becomes a limited value option at tight end.
Denver Broncos
Key Player: Bo Nix
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds (Q), Jaleel McLaughlin, Greg Dulcich, Javonte Williams
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: George Pickens, Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris, Pat Freiermuth
Lineup Notes: While pundits and fans may tell you that rookie Bo Nix played well in his NFL debut, a losing effort, the truth in the numbers seems to differ. Nix threw 42 passes, completing 62% of them for a mere 138 yards while failing to throw a touchdown pass but finding the other team’s secondary twice for interceptions. Nix was limited to just 3.3 yards per attempt and was looking for just 6.3 intended air yards per attempt on his passes. The rookie did score a key rushing touchdown on one of the five carries that saw him gain a total of 35 yards, including 6.8 before contact per carry. The rookie targeted receiver Courtland Sutton 12 times but completed only four of those passes for 38.0 yards. Sutton’s 13.8-yard ADOT led to a massive 62.21% of the team’s air yards share in Week 1. While that ludicrous mark is likely to come down, the receiver is the clear number-one option in the limited Denver passing attack. Josh Reynolds saw eight opportunities and put up a solid 45.0 yards on 5-8 receiving. Reynolds was operating on a 9.1-yard ADOT, soaking up another 27.86% of the team’s air yards. The remaining air yards were spread across eight targets for Devaughn Vele, who caught all of them but managed just 39.0 yards on a 2.1-yard ADOT. Vele’s volume and 4.9 yards per target are playable for a cheap price and what will likely be a near-total lack of popularity. Marvin Mims remains a very limited option with just one target in Week 1. Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin saw 52% and 35% of the snaps for Denver in Week 1, with McLauhglin drawing more touches as the lower-owned less expensive option. Williams carried the ball eight times for 2.9 yards per attempt and caught one of two passes for no gain. McLaughlin posted 2.7 yards per rush attempt on his 10 carries and caught all five of his targets but gained just one yard on a -4.2-yard ADOT, which means he was constantly receiving the ball in bad situations well behind the line of scrimmage. This is a low-end stack that lands 26/26 on DraftKings and 28/28 on FanDuel, there is no appeal. Update: Devaughn Vele is OUT this week, pushing potential opportunities to Mims as well as the running backs in this limited passing attack. Lil’Jordan Humprhey played 30% of the snaps but drew one target last week, he could improve on that with Vele out.
Detroit Lions
Key Player: Jared Goff
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams (Q), Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, David Montgomery, Kalif Raymond (very large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / at least one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, Jalen McMillan
Lineup Notes: The Lions are strong 7.0-point favorites at home against the Buccaneers this week in a game with a slate-leading 51-point total. While both sides of this game provide compelling options for stacking both from the top shelf and the bargain bin, the Lions land as the more highly projected and appealing team. Detroit is stack 1/4 on DraftKings and stack 3/5 on the FanDuel slate this weekend, they are primed for success and they have pieces at all positions. Quarterback Jared Goff threw the ball 28 times in Week 1, completing 18 of his passes for 217 yards but he threw only one touchdown pass. Goff is a solid signal caller who warrants shares in a good spot against a team that allowed 6.7 yards per pass attempt in Week 1, he ranks as QB7/6 on DraftKings and QB8/5 on FanDuel. If there was a big disappointment for the Lions in the first week of the season it was star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who brought in just three of his six targets for 13 yards on a 4.5-yard ADOT. St. Brown did not find the end zone on the limited output, the big wide receiver option last week was Jameson Williams, a popular sleeper pick in fantasy drafts this season. Williams has all the talent necessary for a monster year as a supporting receiver in this offense, he simply needs to spend the full season playing football. With 121 yards and a touchdown on 67.91% of the team’s air yards (14.1-yard ADOT), Williams is off to a tremendous start but he remains affordable on both sites. Sam LaPorta was underwhelming in Week 1, he caught four of five passes for 45.0 yards but failed to score and was typically targeted in close with a 6.0-yard average depth of target. The Lions have a two-headed monster at the running back position with both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery showing burst and strong weekly upside. Gibbs played 51% of the team’s snaps to Montgomery’s 49%. Montgomery carried the ball more, turning 17 opportunities into 91 yards and a touchdown, while Gibbs rushed for 3.6 yards per attempt (40) on 11 carries and also scored on the ground. Gibbs was more involved in the passing game, drawing six targets to his counterpart’s single look. Both running backs are in play for Week 2, they are somewhat expensive for the true timeshare, in many weeks the scoring difference will come down to touchdowns. Depth receivers Kalif Raymond and others did not see opportunities in the offense in Week 1, Raymond was untargeted despite playing 61% of the snaps, and tight end Brock Wright saw one look over 49% of the snaps. Detroit’s top priorities are St. Brown and LaPorta but Williams is closing on that pair rapidly, he makes a fantastic pivot at worst and he can be stacked with either of his fellow pass-catchers. The running back split is challenging but playable in and out of stacks.
Green Bay Packers
Key Player: Malik Willis (Jordan Love is listed as doubtful but by all accounts he will be out for several weeks)
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed (Q), Christian Watson, Josh Jacobs (Q), Emanuel Wilson, Dontayvion Wicks, Tucker Kraft, Luke Musgrave
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Adonai Mitchell, Josh Downs, Alec Pierce
Lineup Notes: The Packers are home underdogs with a backup quarterback at the helm in Week 2. Malik Willis saw very limited action at the end of the first game, throwing just one pass after Jordan Love’s late-game injury. Willis is a third-year player originally drafted in the 3rd round, 86th overall, by Tennessee. In his two seasons, the quarterback has completed 35 passes on 66 attempts for 350 yards, no touchdowns, and three interceptions. Willis has a skillset that includes running the ball, he has rushed for 4.6 yards per attempt in the NFL, posting 123 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries as a rookie in 2022. The quarterback is the limiting factor for an otherwise strong Packers offense this week. Green Bay offers incredible depth at the wide receiver position, with a room that truly runs six deep and includes capable tight ends. The Packers spread the ball out in Week 1, Romeo Doubs led the team with seven targets, Jayden Reed drew six, and Christian Watson saw five looks. Four more players were tied with three targets each, including high-end running back option Josh Jacobs, backup rusher Emanuel Wilson, Dontayvion Wicks, and Tucker Kraft. While the Packers might be more conservative throwing the ball with Willis running things, there should still be expectations of opportunities running deep to low-cost low-owned receiving options with skills. Among those receivers, Reed had by far the highest volume of air yards, drawing a 37.01% share. Doubs had an 8.6-yard ADOT for 21.35% of the air yards while Watson drew deeper looks on a 10.6-yard average depth of target for an 18.86% share. Both Wicks and tight end Luke Musgrave saw deep targets as well, drawing ADOT marks of 13.0 and 16.5 yards respectively. Jacobs carried the ball 16 times for 84 yards in his Packers debut, gaining 5.3 yards per attempt and adding a pair of catches to put him over the 100-yard mark from scrimmage. The running back should remain relatively high-volume at fair pricing, his overall production will come and go with his touchdown output, while he failed to score he did pick up five touches in the red zone last week. Jacobs is currently Questionable but he is practicing on a limited basis. Depth options Bo Melton and MarShawn Lloyd will have a limited opportunity this week, Lloyd was out in Week 1 and remains Questionable for Sunday, Melton was untargeted over 12% of the team’s snaps. The wide receiver corps from Green Bay presents solid mix-and-match options for lineups that are not stacking the team, collectively the upside may be limited by quarterback play and the team only ranks as stack 23/25 on DraftKings and 25/26 on FanDuel.
Houston Texans – FanDuel Only
Key Player: CJ Stroud
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins (Q), Tank Dell, Joe Mixon, Dalton Schultz, Brevin Jordan (very large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / at least one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, D’Andre Swift, Tyler Scott, DeAndre Carter, Cole Kmet
Lineup Notes: As healthy six-point favorites with a 45.5-point total on the board in a home game, the Texans have tons of upside against a Bears team that was very good defending the pass against a middling Titans attack in Week 1. Chicago allowed just 3.3 yards per pass attempt, the 4th best mark in the tiny meaningless sample. Against the run, they were far worse. The Bears coughed up a 29th-ranked 5.4 yards per rush attempt to the tandem of Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears in the first game, this could be an opportunity for Joe Mixon to feast. Mixon debuted in Houston with a whopping 30 carries last weekend, putting up 159 yards on 5.3 yards per attempt, 3.4 before contact per attempt and 1.9 post-contact. Mixon scored a touchdown on the ground and he was also a target in the passing game three times, he caught every opportunity, posting 6.3 yards per target despite a -2.3-yard ADOT. The running back remains a weapon and if the Bears are as gettable on defense as they looked last week he aligns as a strong option for opportunities. The Texans are deep, however, and they have plenty of weapons to throw the ball into the end zone and limit the back’s potential in the wrong game script. Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Stefon Diggs are a tremendous trio of receivers who all received Week 1 volume. Collins led the group in Week 1 with eight targets and a huge 15.5-yard ADOT, garnering a full 50% of the team’s air yards share. His 117 yards, 14.6 per target, also led the team, though he did not get into the end zone. Dell was second in opportunities with seven targets on a 15-yard ADOT for another 42.34% of the air yards, which left only limited downfield opportunities for newly acquired Diggs. The star receiver saw six targets but just 3.63% of the air yards on a 1.5-yard ADOT, but he took two of those opportunities into the end zone for quarterback CJ Stroud’s only two passing touchdowns of the day. Diggs remains a high-caliber option, he should see opportunities down the field as the season goes on but the touchdown volume and red zone opportunities will be the driving force in his scoring in this offense. All three receivers are highly stackable, two of them can be included in the same lineup while three might begin to stretch the seams. The Texans also feature a premium tight end option with Dalton Schultz, who saw three targets for just 16 yards in Week 1. Schultz is a frequent target in the red zone and should see plenty of fairly-priced scoring opportunities as a check-down option for the young quarterback. Schultz ranks as TE10 on FanDuel this week while his quarterback ranks as QB2/1 coming off his his 234-yard day on 24-32 passing. Stroud has more upside for yardage and touchdown passing with the weapons at his disposal, the Texans are stack 1/3 on the FanDuel slate this week.
Indianapolis Colts
Key Player: Anthony Richardson
Setting: at most two (this allows for “naked” Richardson lineups)
Team Group: Michael Pittman Jr., Adonai Mitchell, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs (Q), Kylen Granson, Mo Allie-Cox (large field), Jonathan Taylor
Opposing Setting: at most one / at least one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Josh Jacobs, Emanuel Wilson, Dontayvion Wicks, Tucker Kraft, Luke Musgrave
Lineup Notes: Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson was a high-level fantasy performer returning to action in Week 1. Richardson threw the ball just 19 times, completing only nine passes but managed to find 212 yards through the air and two touchdowns on a few big throws. The quarterback has a big arm and several excellent downfield options to work with, the Colts were pressing the video game play button with multiple deep shots, which should be an ongoing theme this season. Richardson adds quality with his rushing ability, he carried the ball 16 times for 9.3 yards per attempt, a total of 56 yards with a rushing touchdown to pad scoring. The quarterback should be able to repeat the trick against a somewhat targetable Green Bay defense that allowed 7.8 yards per pass attempt in Week 1. Running back Jonathan Taylor remains a strong option on the ground, the veteran back rushed for 48 yards on 16 carries but went untargeted in the limited opportunities in the passing game. Those looks were reserved for big shots down the field with each of Michael Pittman Jr., Adonai Mitchell, and Alec Pierce seeing opportunities and significant average depth of target numbers. Pittman drew the most targets with eight opportunities for a 23.72% air yards share on a 9.3-yard ADOT, he caught four passes for 31 yards in a disappointing outing. Mitchell saw five targets on a 16.4-yard ADOT while Pierce scored a touchdown on a big throw and racked up 125.0 receiving yards despite seeing only three opportunities. The big play weapon drew 38.14% of the team’s air yards on a ridiculous 39.7-yard ADOT. Depth receiver Ashton Dulin also scored a touchdown on a big play, catching a 19-yard pass and taking it 54 yards to paydirt for the team’s second receiving touchdown. Dulin may see a few snaps but he will probably dip from last week’s 24% snap share if Josh Downs makes his expected return to the active roster. Downs is another good weapon in the passing game, he can operate somewhat more underneath, giving Richardson a bit of a check-down from the deep threat options. The Colts offer several depth tight ends but no one of significant appeal. Indianapolis ranks as stack 10/15 on DraftKings and 11/14 on FanDuel going into Week 2, while Richardson as QB3/12 and QB 4/12 across sites probably offers standalone value for those inclined toward “naked” lineups.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Player: Trevor Lawrence
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Travis Etienne Jr., Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas Jr., Evan Engram, Gabe Davis, Parker Washington (very large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Jerome Ford, Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore, Jordan Akins
Lineup Notes: The Jaguars land a bit better in our projections than some of our peers around the industry in a matchup against a playable Browns team with a 41.5-point game total. Jacksonville has weapons across the skill positions and a talented young quarterback looking to take the next big step, a task at which he failed last year in what was still a strong overall season. Trevor Lawrence threw just 21 passes in Week 1, completing 12 of his attempts for 7.7 yards per attempt and a touchdown. The quarterback was slinging the ball somewhat aggressively down the field with 9.2 intended air yards per attempt, which adds a bit of believability to the upside for Jacksonville. Lawrence spread targets evenly among all of his receiving options and running back Travis Etienne Jr., who posted 15 yards on 2-3 receiving while rushing for 44 yards on 12 carries, 3.7 yards per attempt, and a touchdown. Etienne needs to pick up a few additional touches in Week 2, we typically want to see 20+ potential touches for a high-end running back, whether they come via carries or targets is less relevant. Etienne is joined by strong tight end option Evan Engram, who is coming off of a career year in 2023 but a lousy Week 1 that saw him catch just one of four opportunities for five yards yards while operating in close to the line. Engram has upside well beyond those numbers including targeting in the red zone, he is TE3/3 on DraftKings and TE3/1 on the FanDuel slate. Christian Kirk slots in as WR27/20 and WR29/29 across DraftKings and FanDuel, he has strong points-per-dollar value at $5,500 on DraftKings. Kirk was targeted four times on a 14.3-yard average depth, pushing 31.49% of the team’s air yards in his direction, though he caught just one of those passes for 30.0 yards and failed to score. Brian Thomas Jr. was a strong option last week, garnering 21.55% of the air yards while hauling in all four of his targets including the team’s lone touchdown pass. Thomas bounces back as WR30/8 on DraftKings, where he is an aggressive value option for $4,800, he is WR30/24 on FanDuel at $5,800. Gabe Davis was targeted down the field as well, he picked up three catches for 62 yards on a 16-yard average depth with 26.52% of the air yards going in his direction. Davis did not score but he should continue to see a handful of downfield opportunities for big plays throughout the season as a player that this team shopped for in the offseason. Running back Tank Bigsby got involved on the ground, breaking two big runs to total 73 yards on a surprising 12 carries, posting 6.1 yards per attempt with 3.9 yards before contact per attempt and 2.2 after contact. Bigsby is a limited depth option who will struggle to repeat that performance in Week 2.
Kansas City Chiefs
Key Player: Patrick Mahomes
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Isiah Pacheco, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Noah Gray, Samaje Perine, JuJu Smith-Schuster (large field), Justin Watson (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / at least one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Ja’Marr Chase, Zack Moss, Andrei Iosivas, Trenton Irwin, Mike Gesicki
Lineup Notes: The Chiefs are showing their quality in a matchup against the Bengals in Week 2. Kansas City ranks as Stack 4/6 on DraftKings and Stack 5/6 on FanDuel, with quarterback Patrick Mahomes standing tall as one of the top available options at his position. Mahomes ranks as QB2 for points but QB7 for points-per-dollar value at $7,000 on DraftKings, he is QB3/9 as an expensive option on FanDuel as well. Mahomes needs no introduction to fantasy gamers, nor does his favorite target Travis Kelce, though their significant others may need a reintroduction given some glaring divisions that could split the Chiefs owner’s box like an I Love Lucy episode. Mahomes threw for 291 yards on 20-28 passing in Week 1, though that amounted to only one touchdown pass with an interception also on the board. The quarterback connected with Kelce only three times on four attempts for a limited game that does nothing to diminish the star tight end’s numbers for Week 2. Kelce is TE1/4 on DraftKings and 1/3 on FanDuel. Rashee Rice was targeted nine times in the offense, catching seven passes for 11.4 yards per target and 103.0 yards total. Rice is the team’s go-to wide receiver but rookie speedster Xavier Worthy made an immediate impact with a two-touchdown game that flexed his abilities. Worthy ran a record 40 at the NFL combine and ran away from defenders in his first game in the league, posting 47.0 yards and 15.7 yards per target on his two catches from three targets. Worthy put one of those opportunities in the end zone and ran another ball in on his lone carry, a play that went for 21 yards and a touchdown again based entirely on his breakaway speed. Worthy is a good option in stacks of Chiefs, he is no longer sneaky but he has a strong upside for scoring and big play potential in this passing game, he is a weapon that this team has lacked since the departure of Tyreek Hill, though no one would compare him to the superstar just yet. Isiah Pacheco is a good option on the ground as well, the running back carried the ball 15 times for just 45 yards last week, adding three potential touches via targets and hauling in two of them. Ideally, Pacheco would crack 20 touches in a good week, he was a slightly limited and somewhat expensive bust outside of a touchdown in the team’s first game but he lands as RB4/10 on DraftKings and RB6/6 on FanDuel this week. The team also offers a few depth options including tight end Noah Gray, who should see between one and three targets, Samaje Perine, who could pick up a few touches in the rushing and passing game but was limited to just 15% of the snaps last week, and Justin Watson, who was targeted only one time but caught it for 25 yards on a 15-yard target. The Chiefs are a very high-priority stack in a 47.5-point game and several of their players rank among the best individual options at their positions, which puts them in play for standalone shares across the slate.
Las Vegas Raiders
Key Player: Gardner Minshew
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Davante Adams, Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, Alexander Mattison, Tre Tucker, Michael Mayer (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Zay Flowers, Isaiah Likely, Rashod Bateman, Justice Hill, Mark Andrews
Lineup Notes: The Raiders are a better collection of individuals than they are a stacking option this week. Things do not quite coalesce around quarterback Gardner Minshew II who threw for 257 yards on 33 pass attempts in Week 1. Minshew is a capable backup who has been thrust into a more prominent role over the last calendar year or more, he finds his way into partial seasons but rarely finds significant success for DFS scoring during those years. The quarterback threw a touchdown and an interception but managed opportunities more than creating or chasing them with just a 4.5-yard intended air yards per attempt mark. Minshew is the limiting factor for Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, as well as rookie tight end Brock Bowers, who picked up eight targets and caught six in his debut. Bowers is a first-round tight end with extremely high expectations for production in the league, he is a good option as a standalone play as TE7/2 on both DraftKing and FanDuel. Adams is a star receiver who caught five of six opportunities for 59 yards and 9.8 yards per target. Meyers caught eight touchdown passes in this offense in a sneaky-good 2023 season, he was targeted just three times in Week 1 but should see an uptick going forward. The surprise of the week for the Raiders was the output and opportunity given to Alexander Mattison, who put up 7.2 yards per target and 43 total yards on his 4-6 receiving with a touchdown grab while also rushing the ball five times for 3.8 yards per attempt and 19.0 total yards. Mattison was expected to be second to Zamir White, who carried the ball 13 times for 44.0 yards and caught two passes, but the former out-snapped the latter 60% to 38%. The running backs are mix-in options from the midrange across sites in a low-ranked stack against one of the slate’s top defenses. The Raiders are more playable as individuals than in stacks but the spot overall is not ideal as the slate’s biggest underdogs (+9.5) in a 41.5-point game against a strong defense.
Los Angeles Chargers
Key Player: Justin Herbert
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Joshua Palmer (Q), JK Dobbins, Hayden Hurst
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen, Xavier Legette, Jonathan Mingo, Ja’Tavion Sanders
Lineup Notes: Chargers fans were excited for the return of high-level quarterback Justin Herbert who broke their hearts in Week 1 with a limited performance that saw him throw just 26 passes for 144.0 yards and only one touchdown. Herbert accrued 5.5 yards per pass attempt on 6.3 intended air yards per attempt, he was not firing the ball downfield aggressively in the season’s first game. Part of this is likely due to his extended injury absence but another piece of the puzzle could be the newly limited nature of his receiving corps with the departures of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Herbert was operating with Joshua Palmer as his nominal number one receiver, rookie Ladd McConkey as the second option, and last year’s first-round bust Quentin Johnston as another receiving option. Palmer caught just two of four targets for a limited 15 yards at popularity that demanded more production. McConkey caught five passes on seven targets, garnering a 24.34% air yards share but drawing just a 5.3-yard ADOT. Johnston was the more truly downfield operator, his five targets came with a 10.8-yard ADOT and amounted to 35.53% of the air yards, but McConkey was the one to score the team’s lone receiving touchdown. The trio of receivers is joined by capable but unspectacular tight end options Hayden Hurst and Will Dissly, but the entire passing game was outplayed by running back JK Dobbins who was a standout in Week 1. Dobbins rushed 10 times for a whopping 135 yards, 13.5 yards per attempt and scored a touchdown. Dobbins also picked up three targets while sharing some of the backfield duties with Gus Edwards who produced far less with his 11 carries, gaining only 26 yards and catching one pass on one target. Dobbins could pick up additional opportunities, he out-snapped Edwards 58-42% in Week 1 as the team explored the fit. The Chargers are a relatively limited team this season, they will typically only go as far as Herbert will take them but they have a few capable downfield receivers and a running back who could develop into a standalone option. Los Angeles is stack 15 by points but stack 7 by points per dollar value on DraftKings, they land as Stack 17/16 on FanDuel.
Los Angeles Rams
Key Player: Matthew Stafford
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams, Demarcus Robinson, Colby Parkinson, Tyler Johnson, Jordan Whittington (large field), Tutu Atwell (very large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / at least one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride, James Connor, Greg Dortch, Michael Wilson
Lineup Notes: The Rams land as one of the higher-priority stacks on both sites in Week 2. This Los Angeles squad ranks as Stack 3/2 on DraftKings and Stack 4/2 on FanDuel, they are showing strong upside for scoring at fair prices in a one-point game carrying a 47.5-point total. With Arizona’s soft defense in play, the Rams look primed for scoring and Matthew Stafford is a good volume-based quarterback option. Stafford threw the ball a slate-leading 49 times in Week 1, completing 34 passes which is as many or more than most quarterbacks even attempted. The veteran logged 317 yards, 6.5 per attempt, but only one touchdown and a bit of a limited 5.9 intended air yards per attempt that reflects the catch-and-run nature of this offense. Stafford was impacted by the departure of Puka Nacua who left the game early and will be out for several weeks. The absence of Nacua leads directly to extreme upside for running mate Cooper Kupp at the wide receiver position, when one is absent the other becomes a volume beast and an NFL DFS priority. Kupp is WR2/1 on DraftKings and ranks as WR1 in both points and value on FanDuel. The standout veteran has been a star for several seasons, he drew 21 targets to lead football in Week 1, catching 14 of those opportunities for 110.0 yards and 5.2 yards per target. Kupp’s volume pushed his 7.3-yard ADOT to a 53.5% share of the air yards, he added a touchdown and even carried the ball twice for an additional 10 yards to pad scoring slightly. The receiver is an outstanding buy at $7,600/$7,700 across sites, he should be highly popular for good reason this week. Demarcus Robinson is a strong second option in the passing attack. With Nacua’s absence, Robinson spiked to seven targets last week, catching four of them for 42.0 yards on an 11.0-yard ADOT that amounted to 26.92% of the team’s air yards. The vast majority of opportunities through the air went to these two receivers and nothing should change about that in Week 2. Robinson had several strong games for DFS gamers down the stretch in 2023, he is a quality receiver for a cheap price and sits as WR42 by points but WR9 by value on DraftKings but just WR40/35 at a much higher FanDuel price. Tight end Colby Parkinson was targeted five times at just a 2.2-yard ADOT, he caught four passes for 47.0 yards and has scoring upside in this offense when they get in close. Parkinson is a touchdown-dependent value option at his position, he lands as TE8/1 on DraftKings for just $3,100 and TE8/6 on FanDuel. Tyler Johnson picked up a surprising seven targets and caught five of them for 79.0 yards in Week 1, if he is similarly targeted this Sunday he could see significant value as well, he is probably a better option than Tutu Atwell who saw just an 8% snap share. Rookie Jordan Whittington technically went untargeted in Week 1 but that is only because his first career touch, a two-yard gain for a touchdown on a running play, was called back for holding. Whittington will struggle to find opportunities, getting an early look is encouraging and he delivered, which suggests he could see lottery-ticket upside in a similar situation this week. As RB5/9 on DraftKings and RB5/14 on FanDuel, Kyren Williams is another high-priority option in a strong stack. Williams ran the ball 18 times for 50.0 yards and a touchdown last week, his 21 touches on 21 potential touches was strong output and suggests solid ongoing volume, which was fully expected for a premium running back. Williams is not cheap but he ranks well on both sites for raw scoring and has significant upside for a touchdown in this offense. The Rams are a priority stack in one of the games that is more likely to shoot out on this slate, the passing volume alone is a reason to consider the stack.
Minnesota Vikings
Key Player: Sam Darnold
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, Brandon Powell, Jalen Nailor (large field), Johnny Mundt (large field), Josh Oliver (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Jordan Mason, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Jauan Jennings
Lineup Notes: Jordan Addison is out for Week 2 which should push volume toward superstar Justin Jefferson and value options Jalen Nailor and Brandon Powell, as well as running back Aaron Jones. The group is helmed by never-was quarterback Sam Darnold, who had a decent Week 1 that was easily predicted by anyone who has watched a New York Giants defense over the last few seasons. Darnold threw for 208 yards and two touchdowns but lost an interception on his 19-24 passing. The quarterback only needs to manage games for this team, he is capable of making deep throws to connect with Jefferson, who had a 10.5-yard ADOT and garnered 36.42% of the team’s air yards. Jefferson got into the end zone on 4-6 receiving for 9.8 yards per target, he is a very capable option from near the top of the receiver board and he should see several added opportunities this week. Jones is easily the second option for the offense, the veteran running back was injured through most of 2023 but closed out the season with three games of more than 100 yards rushing in the regular season and two in playoff games. Jones is far from done despite his departure from Green Bay, he gained 94 yards on 14 carries and added another 15 yards on 2-2 receiving in Week 1 and he brings more upside to the passing game most weeks. Jones ranks as RB15/11 on DraftKings and RB16/16 on FanDuel, he is a good option who can be deployed in stacks or as a standalone player. Jalen Nailor should take a step forward this week, he gained 21 yards on one catch with just one target last week but will see opportunities almost by default in the absence of Addison. Similarly, Brandon Powell went untargeted last week, despite playing 55% of the team’s snaps and running 12 routes. Trent Sherfield Sr. could see a look or two in the offense, he played 31% of the snaps last week but is nothing more than depth. Ty Chandler adds a few potential touches through 8-to-10 carries and 3-to-5 targets, he is affordable but limited as the second option at running back with a capable receiver in the lead back role. Johnny Mundt and Josh Oliver are mix-in tight ends with light volume. The Vikings land as Stack7/8 on DraftKings and Stack 8/12 on FanDuel, though much of that comes from two very strong marks for scoring from Jefferson and Jones, in addition to a good-not-great QB projection for Darnold.
New England Patriots
Key Player: Jacoby Brissett
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Rhamondre Stevenson, KJ Osborn, DeMario Douglas, Ja’Lynn Polk, Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, Tyquan Thornton
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett, Noah Fant, Zach Charbonnet
Lineup Notes: Easily the most appealing option from the Patriots, running back Rhamondre Stevenson slots in as RB6/4 on DraftKings and RB7/3 on FanDuel. Stevenson is involved in the passing game and he has significant ability running the ball with heavy volume. The running back was one of the leaders last week with 25 opportunities on the ground that he converted into 120 yards for 4.8 yards per attempt and a rushing touchdown. Stevenson was targeted three times in the passing game but only turned in six yards total, he is a more capable receiver on better opportunities. The Patriots are somewhat limited offensively, they do not have great skill player options beyond the running back and Jacoby Brissett does not add much potential at the quarterback position. Brissett is QB23/17 and QB25/21 across sites in Stack 22/11 and Stack 23/18. DeMario Douglas caught two of three passes for 4.0 yards per attempt on a 6.0-yard ADOT in Week 1, he is the Patriots’ top option at the position. Ja’Lynn Polk was targeted once, he caught the pass for six yards while accounting for 4.0% of the team’s air yards. Most of the air yards went to receiver Tyquan Thornton who racked up 19 air yards for a 38% share on three targets. Thornton caught two of three passes for 27 yards and did not score. Tight end Austin Hooper had a 12% air yards share, adding 31 yards on two catches from four targets, while receiver KJ Osborn also caught just half of his targets, posting 21 yards on the three receptions. This is a bad offense against a middling Seattle defense that had a standout performance against the pass in Week 1. While Seattle will probably lose more than 3.1 yards per pass attempt to opposing offenses throughout the season, they are easily capable of holding this team in check. Stevenson is the only priority option from a limited New England offense, he can be played in limited stacks but functions better as a standalone player.
New Orleans Saints
Key Player: Derek Carr
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson, Taysom Hill, Foster Moreau (Q), Cedrick Wilson Jr. (very large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, Brandin Cooks, Rico Dowdle, Ezekiel Elliott, Jalen Tolbert
Lineup Notes: Veteran quarterback Derek Carr heads up Stack13/16 on DraftKings and Stack16/22 on FanDuel but he is inexpensive and could see another somewhat effective week against a high-scoring but also gettable Dallas defense. Carr threw for 200.0 yards on the button last week, completing 19 of 23 attempts and throwing three touchdown passes in a strong performance that saw him connect with cheap downfield weapon Rashid Shaheed for a low-owned touchdown. Shaheed caught three of five passes for 73.0 yards and 14.6 yards per target, racking up a massive 46.63% share of the air yards. The surprisingly limited option in the passing attack was star receiver Chris Olave, who typically has far more to offer than 2-2 receiving for 11 yards and a 5.77% air yard share. Tight end Taysom Hill is a gadget player who has had two high-scoring games per season for the past few years and is otherwise over-owned, over-priced, and over-hyped. Hill did gain 35.0 rushing yards on five attempts in Week 1, posting an outstanding 5.6 yards after contact per rushing attempt. The veteran did not throw a pass but he did catch one of his two targets for one yard. Ultimately the performance did not meet expectations or price requirements and Hill had a flat Week 1. Juwan Johnson is the team’s true tight end, he is a strong receiver who sees opportunities down the field and in the red zone. Johnson was targeted three times, he caught two passes for 26 yards and a touchdown on a 14.0-yard ADOT. Foster Moreau is another tight end option in this offense, he was surprisingly targeted four times last week while playing 77% of the snaps to Johnson’s 35% and Hill’s 32% but he is rarely such a frequent target throughout his career. Veteran running back Alvin Kamara may have lost a step or more but he rates highly on volume and remains a good DFS option for that attribute alone. Kamara carried the ball 15 times for 5.5 yards per attempt in Week 1, gaining 4.2 yards before contact per rushing attempt. The multi-faceted star also caught five-of-five targets for another 27 yards despite a -3.4-yard ADOT on short attempts behind the line of scrimmage. Kamara is a playmaker who posted more than 100 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown last week, he could reach similar or better totals given the significant volume against a Dallas team that allowed 4.9 yards per rush attempt in Week 1. The Saints are a playable stack but they are not a priority, with a bit of star power, a bit of downfield playmaking ability, and a few depth/gadget options, the team will always be an interesting way to stack lineup shares.
New York Giants
Key Player: Daniel Jones
Setting: at most one/at least one (at most will allow for “naked” Jones lineups)
Team Group: Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson, Devin Singletary, Theo Johnson, Jaylin Hyatt (large field), Daniel Bellinger (large field), Isaiah Hodgins (very large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Brian Robinson Jr., Terry McLaurin, Luke McCaffrey, Zach Ertz
Lineup Notes: The career of quarterback Daniel Jones is, to date, best summarized with one word, and that word is “ugh”. Jones is not a good quarterback, something he proved once again to those who doubted his ability to suck in Week 1. The quarterback made his return to action with a very solid 42 passing attempts, but they were solid by volume alone with Jones completing only 22 of them for 186.0 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions. The quarterback has thrown more pick-sixes than touchdowns in his recent outings going back to the beginning of last season, he is simply bad at this. Jones had a limited 5.2 intended air yards per attempt, with an actual mark of just 3.0 air yards per attempt. The quarterback is known somewhat for his rushing ability, a true attribute and the one thing he is good at on the field. The injury-prone signal-caller carried the ball six times for 15.0 yards and was as disappointing on the ground as he was in the sky in Week 1. Even with all of this in mind, there is undeniable appeal in an inexpensive Giants stack against one of the worst defenses in football. Washington allowed a massive game to Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield last week and they were targetable for yards and touchdowns through the air for all of 2023. Jones benefits from the matchup but that does not carry him to success, he needs to find a modicum of talent in a hurry to deliver on expectations as a somewhat popular play around the industry this week. Rookie Malik Nabers picked up seven targets and caught five of them for 66.0 yards and 9.4 yards per target. Nabers is a high-end player who will demand targets at a higher volume going forward, he was denied a touchdown in his debut but did garner 27.07% of the team’s mediocre air yards share on a 7.0-yard ADOT. Outside of one deep target to Jalin Hyatt, who rates as nothing more than a value dart deep in stacks, Nabers’ limited average depth of target was similar to the 8.3-yard mark posted by tight end Theo Johnson and fellow receiver Darius Slayton’s 8.5-yard average target. Johson and Slayton were each targeted four times, the tight end seems to have immediately overtaken incumbent Daniel Bellinger who played just 23% of the snaps to the rookie’s 86% and was outdrawn 4-1 in targets. Wan’Dale Robinson was the team leader with a dozen targets but he caught only six of them and posted a middling total of 44.0 yards and 3.7 yards per target. Robinson did pick up 32.6% of the team’s air yards but that came with just a 5.1-yard average depth of target. Eric Gray and Tyrone Tracy Jr. will see limited touches spelling starting running back Devin Singletary who has limited appeal with involvement as a runner and in the passing game. Singletary carried the ball 10 times for 37.0 yards and added another 15.0 yards on 4-5 receiving with a -3.0-yard ADOT out of the backfield. The running back is playable but is not a top-end option as RB23/23 and RB25/25. Nabers is the go-to skill pairing with shares of Jones at quarterback, the rookie receiver is WR12/4 on DraftKings and he ranks the same on the FanDuel slate. Johnson is TE20/6 on DraftKings and TE21/17 on FanDuel, he is another interesting option for stacking considerations in the Giants’ passing attack. The Giants rank as Stack 14/5 on DraftKings and Stack 15/9 on FanDuel, they are a better points-per-dollar play than a pure scoring play.
New York Jets
Key Player: Aaron Rodgers
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, Mike Williams, Tyler Conklin, Xavier Gipson (very large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, Tyjae Spears, Tyler Boyd, DeAndre Hopkins, Chig Okonkwo, Treylon Burks
Lineup Notes: The Jets are road favorites in Tennessee in Aaron Rodgers’ second game back from an injury, several ayahuasca trips, and a brief dalliance with the office of Vice President, they look like a reasonable stacking option with excellent skill players to help the dwindling veteran. New York is Stack 5/3 on DraftKings and Stack 6/4 on FanDuel this week. Rodgers was OK in his return to action, completing 13 passes on 21 attempts for 8.0 yards per attempt on 7.3 intended air yards. The veteran threw a touchdown but also threw an interception, with the score coming as an upside play to cheap low-owned receiver Allen Lazard who had a solid bounceback from a lackluster 2023 with two touchdowns in the first game of the year. Lazard caught the second touchdown pass from backup Tyrod Taylor, who spelled Rodgers late in an easy win. Lazard gains upside from familiarity with Rodgers, he is on this team because of the quarterback and he should be a reliable safety valve who possesses downfield ability and significant size as a sturdy red zone target. Lazard is an any-given-slate scoring option at cheap pricing. Of course, the receiver is not nearly the best skill player on this team. That honor goes to running back Breece Hall, with apologies, and second place, to receiver Garrett Wilson. Both players are standouts at their positions, they are expensive but worthwhile and rank as RB1/2 on both sites and WR5/6 and WR6/10 across sites, respectively. Both players are highly functional top-priority members of Jets stacks but they also work as standalone players outside of those lineups. Hall carried the ball 16 times for 54.0 yards, 3.4 per attempt and scored a rushing touchdown while adding another six potential touches and five catches in the passing game. Hall picked up an additional 39 yards from scrimmage with his heavy targeting, he should be a fixture for Rodgers throughout the season and he is a very good running back both in and out of Jets stacks. Wilson drew 11 targets and caught six of them last week, he should see 10 or more targets every week on his path to a huge total and significant scoring, though he failed to find the end zone in Week 1. Wilson drew a massive 50.77% of the air yards share with Lazard picking up 50.26%, numbers that balance with a -2.05% share going to running back Braeleon Allen who saw only backup action, and a 1.03% share going to tight end Tyler Conklin who was severely limited with just two targets and a 0.0-yard ADOT. With two high-volume stars in Wilson and Hall, the Jets do not provide significant depth options, but Conklin should be better than last week’s performance going forward, he provides a bit of scoring upside to go with Lazard’s value-based production.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Key Player: Justin Fields
Setting: at most one/at least one (at most will allow for “naked” Fields lineups)
Team Group: George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, Jaylen Warren, Van Jefferson Jr., Najee Harris, Calvin Austin III, MyCole Pruitt (very large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Courtland Sutton, Devaughn Vele, Josh Reynolds, Jaleel McLaughlin, Greg Dulcich, Javonte Williams
Lineup Notes: As of early Saturday morning it still looks like Justin Fields will be driving the bus (apologies to “The Bus”) for the Steelers again in Week 2. Fields is a dynamic rusher who is not bereft of passing ability, he was somewhat unfairly pushed out of Chicago but it is also fair to say that he was given plenty of chances. The quarterback had two monster weeks in an otherwise limited 2023 season, throwing for more than 300 yards and four touchdowns against Denver in Week 4 then repeating the four touchdowns the following week in a game that also saw him rusht he ball 11 times for more than 50 yards on the ground against the highly-targetable Commanders defense. Fields did not throw more than one touchdown pass the rest of the season while also missing several games. The quarterback still has game-breaking ability in the ground game, he ran for 57.0 yards on 14 carries, 4.1 yards per rush attempt, while completing 17 of 23 passes for 156 yards but no scoring last week. Fields was operating mostly underneath with a limited 5.3 intended air yards per attempt and 6.9 yards per pass attempt for the game, with most of the action going to George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth as expected. The wide receiver led the team with seven targets, catching six of them for 12.1 yards per target and a massive 73.33% air yards share in the offense. Pickens will lead this team all season as the true number 1 receiver while Freiermuth is a legitimate second option who should have a better year than he did in 2023 with a fair amount of volume in a more limited receiving corps. The tight end caught all four of his targets on a 3.0-yard average depth of target for just 8.89% of the air yards last week but he has a fair amount of touchdown equity at a cheap price as TE9/15 on DraftKings and TE11/12 on FanDuel. Pittsburgh targeted both of their running backs twice in the passing game, though Jaylen Warren typically sees more passes while Najee Harris handles a few more carries. Harris did rush the ball 20 times to the limited two carries that were given to Warren last week, creating a stark difference in opportunities that greatly favors a still-explosive Harris. Both players are good with the ball in their hands, they both have explosive rush play upside and scoring potential with expectations of volume, but Harris also out-snapped Warren 56-31% last week, making the volume something to watch in this offense. The remaining options were highly limited in Week 1 with very little reason to believe in additional upside this week. Van Jefferson Jr. was targeted twice on a 1.0-yard ADOT, he caught one of them and immediately fell down. Cordarrelle Patterson has big play ability in his career but it comes in limited bursts and he saw only 13% of the snaps last week, picking up four carries for 3.3 yards per attempt. The Steelers are facing a highly-targetable defense this week, but the game has only a 36.5-point total and the Steelers are just 2.5-point favorites on the road, which is reflective of the team’s lackluster offensive abilities more than the Broncos’ quality. The additional consideration of an early season game at altitude makes this an even less appealing spot for a team that already ranked as Stack 24/23 and 26/27.
Seattle Seahawks
Key Player: Geno Smith
Setting: at least one
Team Group: DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett (Q), Noah Fant, Zach Charbonnet, Jake Bobo (very large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Rhamondre Stevenson, KJ Osborn, DeMario Douglas, Ja’Lynn Polk, Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, Tyquan Thornton
Lineup Notes: Lead running back Kenneth Walker III is out for Week 2, creating a massive opportunity for backup Zach Charbonnet who was highly drafted as a potential alternative before Walker had a strong 2023. Charbonnet was only OK in his role last year, he did nothing to steal the job but he was somewhat effective in limited opportunities and now should have a clear lane in the direction of 20 potential touches. In Week 1 Charbonnet carried the ball eight times for 12 yards, posting a measly 1.5 yards per attempt on the ground and a solid 9.7 yards per target on three looks in the passing game. The running back played a limited role in the offense last week but he did pick up a red zone target that he converted for a receiving touchdown, which only adds to the low-cost appeal this week. Charbonnet will no doubt be a popular option at value this week but he seems like a spot of good chalk rather than a spot to dance around on a deep slate. The Patriots allowed an 18th-ranked 4.4 yards per rush attempt last week but they were stout against the run last year at just 3.3 yards per attempt. Geno Smith is a playable but unspectacular quarterback who does not rank well on either site. Smith threw 25 passes for 171 yards and the lone score to Charbonnet last week but he has more potential given his weapons in the passing game. Smith is spoiled with a solid 1/1A option up top, both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett can still go get it, despite the latter’s downturn in 2023. Metcalf caught three of four targets and drew a 31.14% air yards share last week while Lockett led the team with seven targets, a 12.4-yard ADOT, and 52.1% of the air yards. Lockett had a strong first outing with 77 yards, 11.0 per target, while playing 54% of the snaps, he has upside for more on any given slate. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was limited by working in close in this offense throughout the first 2/3 of the 2023 season before stretching out a bit late in the year. In Week 1 he was back to a more limited form with just a 3.0-yard ADOT and 3.59% of the team’s air yards. “JSN” has plenty of talent and upside and if weekly volume spikes he can make things happen even without deep looks, he is a better volume and value play in the right week, on a day when the receiver depth chart is at full strength he is more of a dice roll. Noah Fant is a mix-in tight end option for a fair price, while Kenny McIntosh should see some backup running back touches and Jake Bobo could get involved for a limited share in the passing game. Seattle is Stack 21/22 and 24/25, they do not have significant appeal in this matchup despite being road favorites, the total in this game is limited to just 38 points for good reason.
San Francisco 49ers
Key Player: Brock Purdy
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, Kyle Juszczyk
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones
Lineup Notes: Running back Jordan Mason is one of the top overall plays of Week 2 after a dominant performance in his backup role behind injured Christian McCaffrey last week. Mason was quietly one of the best per-touch running backs in football among those who saw more than 85 carries from 2022-2023 and he more than proved his case last week. Mason carried the ball 28 times for 147 yards, 5.3 yards per attempt, and he scored a rushing touchdown in an explosive performance. At just $5,200/$5,500, the sites did not react much to the running back’s talent or the likely absence of the star in this offense. Mason is probably not a mandatory addition to the stack group, he will appear in an abundance of lineups naturally via his price/projection combination, he saw just one target in his big Week 1 performance, but he is one of the top priority plays overall on this week’s slate as RB2/1 on both sites. The deep 49ers will miss McCaffrey’s star power but they are well-equipped to weather the storm with stars at every spot. In addition to the excellent backup running back the team has Deebo Samuel who can replicate much of what McCaffrey does through the air and on the ground. Samuel saps backup running back touches from the actual backs in these situations, he carried the ball eight times for 23 yards and poached a rushing touchdown after a penalty in Week 1. The dynamic skill player also collected five catches for 54.0 yards on nine targets, with 33.6% of the team’s air yards headed in his direction. Samuel is fantastic with the ball in his hands or operating downfield. Brandon Aiyuk has the skills of a true number one receiver, he operates as a hybrid 2/3 in this attack depending on depth. Aiyuk drew five targets last week on an 11.8-yard ADOT as the key downfield weapon for quarterback Brock Purdy but he did not score and caught only two passes for 28 yards total. Aiyuk has far bigger games ahead, he is a priority play in 49ers stacks and he rates as a good value option as a standalone player. Samuel is WR6/2 and WR3/2 across sites while Aiyuk is WR21/27 and WR20/32. Tight end George Kittle can get overlooked in the passing game, as can receiver Jauan Jennings, both players are strong options to differentiate a popular 49ers stack on any given slate. Jennings caught all five of his targets for 64 yards on a 12.8-yard average depth of target while Kittle picked up five targets of his own, catching four of them for 8.0 yards per target but a limited 10.53% of the team’s air yards. The balance of the team sees only limited opportunities, Samuel takes touches from backup running back Isaac Guerendo and Patrick Taylor Jr. and none of the other receiving options saw noteworthy volume. San Francisco ranks as Stack 2/1 on both sites but quarterback Brock Purdy is just QB16/21 and QB18/18 in a bit of a twist. Purdy is typically carried to success by his fantastic supporting cast, he completed 19 of 29 passes for 231 yards but failed to throw a touchdown pass in Week 1.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Key Player: Baker Mayfield
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, Jalen McMillan, Cade Ottom, Trey Palmer (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, David Montgomery
Lineup Notes: Tampa Bay delivered in rare fashion as our go-to value option of the week with quarterback Baker Mayfield more highly projected in our model than in most around the industry. Mayfield had a great opportunity to succeed against the targetable Washington defense last week and he has premium weapons in the passing game on his side. The quarterback, and the stack overall, project more as a mid-level option in this week’s contest against a much better Lions defense. The game itself is a go-to for stacking and there are appealing skill players on both sides, supporting the idea of “bring-back” plays that help drive scoring on both sides of a stack. Tampa Bay is a seven-point underdog, the Lions are one of the biggest favorites on the slate but the 51-point total alone is a reason to consider at least a few shares of Buccaneers. Mayfield is a capable gamer of a quarterback who can sling the ball downfield to top-end wide receiver Mike Evans, who has never failed to accrue at least 1,000 yards in a season in his long NFL career. Evans picked up six targets and gained 61 yards in a good start to the season and he was the recipient of two of Mayfield’s four passing touchdowns on the day. Chris Godwin also scored a touchdown in the passing game, the high-end tandem came through in a big way for those who stacked them as a Mayfield+2. Godwin gained 10.4 yards per target, putting up 83 yards total on 8-8 receiving in an excellent performance. He had 25% of the team’s air yards on a 4.4-yard ADOT while Evans was the bigger downfield weapon at a 10.7-yard average and a 45.71% air yards share. Running back Rachaad White was predictably a frequently targeted option in the passing game, picking up six targets and catching them all for 75 yards and 12.5 per target despite a -5.2-yard average depth as an option out of the backfield. Receiving keeps White afloat, particularly in PPR formats, he was limited as a rusher last year and the same was true in Week 1. White carried the ball 15 times for a lousy 2.1 yards per attempt and did not score on the ground. Rookie Bucky Irving is a major threat to overtake White for this position this season, he got off to a good start with 62 yards on nine carries, posting 6.9 yards per attempt with 5.7 yards before contact and 1.2 yards post-contact. Irving is also capable in the passing game, he was targeted three times and caught two passes for 14 yards. As the clearly more capable runner, Irving should stay involved for 10-to-12 touches per game at a minimum starting immediately, with potential for more. Cade Otton is a mix-in tight end who draws the occasional red zone target, he was a limited option last week and remains so this week. Jalen McMillan filled a downfield role in the offense while playing 83% of the snaps in the team’s first game, his 18-yard ADOT led the team over three targets, one of which he caught for a 32-yard touchdown. McMillan picked up 38.57% of the team’s air yards and lands as a playable dart throw at $3,600 on DraftKings, he is a far less appealing $5,200 option on the blue site. The Buccaneers rank as Stack 8/13 on DraftKings and Stack 9/15 on FanDuel, they are a playable mid-level option with upside to another ceiling day.
Tennessee Titans
Key Player: Will Levis
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, Treylon Burks, DeAndre Hopkins, Chig Okonkwo
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, Mike Williams, Tyler Conklin
Lineup Notes: Those of us writing about this slate at almost 5 a.m. Saturday could find themselves lamenting the idea of coming up with a few hundred words about a lousy Titans offense, but that would only be a bad situation if the Commanders were not next. Tennessee is appealing by comparison with at least two capable running backs and some weapons in the receiving corps, if not a quarterback to deliver them the ball. Quarterback Will Levis was the limiting factor in Week 1, completing just 19 of 32 attempts for 127 yards, with one touchdown and two interceptions. Levis is not a particularly adept quarterback, he had just 2.9 air yards per attempt despite a 7.0-yard intended air yards per attempt mark. Calvin Ridley picked up a huge 22.9-yard average depth of target across seven opportunities, catching just three of them but posting 50 yards on 69.87% of the team’s air yards. Ridley is a go-to option when considering this team, his productive days are not done he just needs better chances. DeAndre Hopkins played but was on a severe limitation in Week 1, he ended up seeing just 27% of the snaps and one target that he caught for eight yards. Hopkins is expected to be back to unrestricted form and far more targets this week, making him an interesting consideration as the second option in the passing attack. Tyler Boyd joins the veteran receiving group, he caught three of five passes but gained only 18 yards on 19.65% of the team’s air yard share in Week 1. Boyd is a capable third option in the group, when he has to step up for more he tends to underwhelm. Chig Okonkwo scored the team’s lone receiving touchdown on limited opportunities, he has a shred of upside as a red zone target but not much more. Treylon Burks is relegated to a value role in this offense, he should see a reduced share from the 69% snaps that he drew last week with Hopkins returning to full form. The truly appealing pieces in this offense both come from the rushing game. Explosive Tyjae Spears was supposed to steal this job from Tony Pollard as soon as last week but that quite clearly did not happen given Pollard’s big day. The running back got his year off to a good start after disappointing the fantasy world and losing (nearly) everyone’s faith in 2023. Pollard ran the ball 16 times for 5.1 yards per attempt, putting up 82 yards and adding another 12 on 3-4 receiving around the line of scrimmage. With 20 potential and 19 actual touches last week and expectations for similar opportunities in Week 2, Pollard is a good value-based running back option again this week at RB11/6 and RB12/8 across sites. Spears lands as RB26/24 and RB28/28, he saw 45% of the snaps but carried the ball just four times for 21.0 yards, a solid 5.3 per attempt in the limited action, and he was targeted four times for an 11-yard total on a -0.8-yard ADOT. Pollard was the clear top option out of the backfield in every way, he is a very strong option as the most appealing piece of the Titans offense and he is probably more functional as a standalone player than in stacks.
Washington Commanders
Key Player: Jayden Daniels
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Terry McLaurin, Brian Robinson Jr., Luke McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Zach Ertz, Olamide Zaccheaus, Jamison Crowder (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson, Devin Singletary, Theo Johnson, Darius Slayton
Lineup Notes: It should be firmly established among football fans that the New York Giants are not a good football team at this point. New York yielded 4.3 yards per rush attempt and a massive 8.4 yards per pass attempt to Minnesota and Sam Darnold in Week 1, they could be in for an uglier day against a capable Jayden Daniels and his cohort of wide receivers on Sunday. Daniels threw for 184 yards but failed to throw a touchdown pass in his Commanders debut. The rookie completed 17 of just 24 passes with a limited 5.2 intended air yards per attempt. Daniels is another multi-faceted quarterback though, he did not gain much through the air but he ran the ball 16 times for 88 yards, 5.5 per attempt, and a pair of rushing touchdowns in Week 1. While that upside is terrific, it is far better when paired with at least somewhat capable passing, Daniels delivered a few decent throws but needs to improve in that department to deliver in Week 2 with the Giants’ pass rush coming for him. Terry McLaurin was a strong downfield option for the rookie, while they connected just two times on four attempts, the receiver garnered a 64% air yards share with a 20-yard average depth of target and could be primed for similar big-play shots in Week 2. The Giants have a weak secondary and McLaurin will pursue those opportunities against a division rival. Rookie Luke McCaffrey picked up action on 61% of the team’s snaps last week, he drew four targets for 22.4% of the air yards in the team’s offense, catching three passes for 28 yards and 7.0 yards per target. McCaffrey is a mix-in option, if he drops in targets it could be to the benefit of limited Dyami Brown or dynamic Olamide Zacchaeus, both of whom played snaps last week (56% and 44% respectively). Zaccheaus drew the only targets, picking up three opportunities down the field but catching just one of them for a 15-yard gain. The cheap receiver did see 22.4% of the team’s air yards, if he is the true third option in the passing attack he has a touch of appeal in stacks. Tight end Zach Ertz was involved with three catches on four targets but he did not have a big impact, gaining only 18 yards total on a -0.7-yard ADOT. Running back Brian Robinson Jr. carried the ball a dozen times and scored a rushing touchdown, joining Daniels’ production on the ground. Robinson is a capable receiver at the position, he can be stacked in tandem with Daniels to pick off any rushing touchdown upside while adding a receiver, primarily McLaurin, for additional correlated scoring and big play potential. The Commanders sit as Stack 16/12 and Stack 18/11, they have upside against a highly limited turnover-prone Giants team.
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