A meaty 10-game Monday slate brings a bonanza of scoring potential for MLB DFS with a bit of a lean toward hitting in matchups around the league. There are a handful of solid pitching options on the board, but the presence of a number of lower-end starters and a Coors Field game has thoughts turned toward hitting combinations. Figuring out the pitchers who will provide a potential ceiling score while at least keeping competitive at a salary that allows for unique hitting combinations is the trick on a slate of this nature. While there are no sure things, the opportunities at the plate are as obvious as they are abundant on this slate, so taking calculated risks on less expensive starters who unlock unique combinations of hitters within the obvious stacks can be a dramatic difference maker in taking lineups from one level of scoring to the next. Or, there’s always money in the banana stand cheap bats at Coors Field.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Summary – 5/15/23
New York Yankees (+142/4.07) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-168/5.14)
The Yankees are in Toronto to face struggling Alek Manoah, who has yet to find his form over eight starts and 41 innings. The righty pitched to a 2.24 ERA and a 3.98 xFIP last season, while there is a big gap between those numbers Manoah was a reliably good starter who had a 22.9% strikeout rate with a 0.99 WHIP while inducing an 11.2% swinging-strike rate. The year before he was better for strikeouts at 27.7% but allowed more run creation and slightly better power. Manoah was very good at limiting premium contact in both seasons, last year he allowed just a 5.4% barrel rate and 31.5% hard-hit rate with 87.5 mph of average exit velocity and a 2.04% home run rate. This season everything has collapsed, Manoah is allowing an 8.5% barrel rate with a 41.5% hard-hit mark and 89 mph of average exit velocity, he has a 4.83 ERA and 5.75 xFIP while inducing just an 8.4% swinging-strike rate with a 24.8% CSW%. The most shocking drop comes in his strikeout rate, which has fallen to just 16.8% in early returns this year, with a walk rate that has skyrocketed from 6.5% last year to 13.1% this season. Manoah is throwing his sinker a little more and his four-seamer a little less this season and has been falling behind too frequently in counts. A dip in velocity and spin rate on both pitches has rendered them more hittable and less effective, his whiff rate on the sinker has dropped from 16.1% to 10.2% and hitters have actually underperformed with just a .317 slugging percentage compared to a .498 xslg. The four-seamer has also yielded a lower slugging percentage than the expected mark, but still a higher number than last year while whiffs have dropped from 26.1% to 24.5% on the pitch. The primary issue, however, has been Manoah’s flat slider. The pitch seems to have lost just enough spin and just enough velocity to make a difference when batters are waiting for it in good counts, Manoah’s slider has yielded a .735 slugging percentage (.464 xSLG) and four home runs with a whiff rate that has dropped from 31.8% to just 24.2%. At $7,900 there is SP2 value for Manoah on DraftKings, even with his struggles and his lousy current form, against a Yankees lineup with a fair amount of swing-and-miss in it, but there is no safety in the play. At $9,000 on FanDuel, Manoah seems like a bit of a stretch in this spot, it is not unjustifiable, but the play draws very thin at that price point unless we see a dramatic and definitive turnaround. With the idea of a patient hitter waiting to crush a slider in mind, Aaron Judge will be hitting second at $6,200/$3,800 tonight, the FanDuel price is simply too low for a hitter who should never be below $4,000. Judge has eight home runs and a .261 ISO in 136 plate appearances. The outfield star will hit behind second baseman Gleyber Torres who has bounced up and down somewhat this season, but overall is sitting at a healthy 120 WRC+ with six home runs and five stolen bases in his 168 plate appearances. The leadoff spot is a good position for Torres in this lineup, he will correlate well with Judge while providing upside of his own, but Yankees manager Aaron Boone rarely meets a good decision that he likes, so we will see what happens with the confirmed lineup. Anthony Rizzo is slashing .312/.395/.526 with a .214 ISO while creating runs 58% better than average yet he remains priced at just $4,700/$3,300 at first base. Rizzo is a star who has been over 30 home runs multiple times in his excellent career, he is too cheap across the industry. DJ LeMahieu is slashing .276/.347/.455 while creating runs 24% better than average with five home runs. The infielder has hit the ball very well this year, his hard-hit rate is up from 40.6% last season to 51.6% in the small sample this year. LeMahieu is a third baseman for $3,900 on DraftKings and… for… some reason costs the minimum today on FanDuel with three-position eligibility… that’s fun. Jake Bauers checks in at $2,000/$2,400 in the outfield on DraftKings and at first base on FanDuel. Bauers has two home runs and a .250 ISO in his 28 plate appearances, he can hit the ball hard on the right night and does not cost much if he is hitting in the heart of the Yankees lineup. Harrison Bader and Anthony Volpe bring solid power and speed to the sixth and seventh spots in the projected lineup, Bader has three home runs and a stolen base with a 180 WRC+ since his return 45 plate appearances ago, and Volpe is up to .218/.303/.388 with a .170 ISO and 93 WRC+ after slumping badly. The rookie has six home runs and 13 stolen bases in 165 plate appearances and costs just $4,300/$2,900 at shortstop. Jose Trevino and Oswaldo Cabrera have three home runs each but they are creating runs 40% and 39% worse than average in 95 and 128 plate appearances respectively.
Yankees starter Jhony Brito, as we have said several times since his debut, is not a premium Major League starter. Brito is at a level where that sentence could basically be repeated without the word “premium” and still qualify, the righty is a very low-end option that is here covering for injuries in the New York rotation. Brito’s first outing remains his best start of the season, he threw five innings and struck out six Giants who were not expecting his dynamic changeup. Since then, Brito struck out two in 5.0, zero in a disastrous 0.2-inning start, three in 4.1, one in 2.2, five in 5.0, two in 4.0, and three in 4.1, he has not been finding strikeouts and he has not pitched in the sixth inning yet in his career. Brito has allowed at least one home run in four of his eight starts, with two allowed in each of the last two games for a total of six. The righty’s home run rate for the season is 4.35% on a 39% hard-hit rate and 89.1 mph of average exit velocity, with a 14% barrel rate. Brito has struck out just 15.9% and has walked 10.1% over 31 innings in his eight starts, he has a 5.81 ERA and a 5.62 xFIP while inducing a nine percent swinging-strike rate with just a 24.9% CSW%. The Blue Jays are a very good team that hits the ball exceptionally hard, they should be in line for a big performance against this pitcher. George Springer got back on the power board with a home run yesterday, he now has five for the season as well as the hope and faith of MLB DFS and fantasy baseball fans that this is the start of the turnaround for the struggling star. Springer has a 13.93 in our home run model tonight for just $4,600/$2,800. Bo Bichette has eight home runs with a .195 ISO and 145 WRC+ this season, he has an 11.4% barrel rate and 49.3% hard-hit rate for the year while slashing .320/.365/.515. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a 16.76 in our home run model to lead the team and the slate as a whole. The star first baseman is slashing .315/.392/.523 with a .208 ISO while creating runs 55% better than average, and he has a 16.4% barrel rate and 57% hard-hit rate so far this year, Guerrero is well worth the investment of just $5,800/$3,800. Daulton Varsho slots into the outfield at $4,600/$3,000 after struggling through his first 164 plate appearances this season. The left-handed slugger has a 9.2% barrel rate but just a 35.8% hard-hit percentage for the season, which has translated to six home runs. The outfielder his 27 homers on similar contact just last season, he had a 10.2% barrel rate and 35.3% hard-hit rate, so there is room for belief, but perhaps not a lock for faith with the player in the longer term. Matt Chapman costs $5,300/$3,700 at third base, he is slashing .317/.404/.538 with a .221 ISO and 162 WRC+ over 166 plate appearances, but he has cooled somewhat since the scorching start. Chapman can start a new run of productivity on any given day, hot and cold do not exist in reality, the slugging cornerman is one of the top options at his position and his price has taken a small dip, take advantage of the opportunity against this pitcher. Alejandro Kirk has two home runs but just a 33.3% hard-hit rate this season, which is way down from the 45% that helped him blast 14 home runs in 541 chances last year. Brandon Belt is a stout left-handed homer-hitting veteran from late in the lineup for just $2,200/$2,500. Belt is slashing .244/.330/.407 with a .163 ISO and 107 WRC+ in his 97 plate appearances with a lot to like about his contact profile with a 13% barrel rate and 43.5% hard-hit for the year, he has the highest rating in the second half of the lineup in our home run model at 9.65. Whit Merrifield is slashing .281/.336/.380 with a 101 WRC+ and 12 stolen bases so far this year, he is a viable correlation option at $3,900/$3,000 either at second base or in the outfield. Kevin Kiermaier has a pair of home runs and is off to a strong start at .311/.376/.481 with a 140 WRC+ but he has just a 5.18 in our home run model.
Play: Blue Jays bats stacks aggressively, Yankees bats/stacks
Update Notes: the Yankees have Jake Bauers leading off ahead of Judge-Rizzo-Torres-Willie Calhoun-Volpe-Cabrera-Kyle Higashioka–Aaron Hicks tonight with Bader and LeMahieu out of the lineup. Calhoun is a low-end option in the middle of the lineup, Higashioka is a better bat than Trevino but Hicks is a hole in the lineup, this is an overall downgrade to Yankees quality, 1-4 plus Volpe and Higashioka is the most viable approach. The Blue Jays lineup was confirmed as expected.
Seattle Mariners (-116/5.20) @ Boston Red Sox (+107/4.91)
The Mariners’ power marks are being somewhat kept in check by Red Sox starter Tanner Houck’s track record going into tonight’s game, but it is important to note that the wind is blowing out to right field aggressively at Fenway Park tonight, which is pushing the high implied team totals in this matchup. This could be a better spot for bats on both sides than the home run model may indicate on its own. Houck has been good at limiting home runs and curbing average launch angle over the past two seasons but he has allowed a bit more premium contact so far in seven starts and 37.2 innings in 2023. The righty has a 5.26 ERA with a better 4.09 xFIP and a 20.6% strikeout rate so far this season. He has put too many runners on base at 8.8% free passes and a 1.33 WHIP but his 11.4% swinging-strike rate and 29.2% CSW% are both solid and he has been effective in most of his outings. Houck allowed two home runs in his first start of the year but only two since then over his next seven starts. He has allowed two or three earned runs in all but one of his outings, a bumpy start against the Blue Jays that saw him give up a home run and allow six runs on six hits while striking out five but walking three. Other than that outing, Houck has been at worst capable and sometimes good. The Mariners’ lineup includes several robust options in a vacuum, but between some slow starts and the way in which Houck’s ability checks power, they grade out as just an average option tonight with low-end ratings in our Power Index. JP Crawford should be a good option in the leadoff role for now, the shortstop has a .379 on-base percentage this season with a 116 WRC+ from the bottom of the lineup, and he should provide correlated scoring potential with some of the higher-end bats that follow. Ty France is slashing .273/.357/.380 with a 115 WRC+ but his power has been a bit off the pace that saw him hit 20 home runs with a .162 ISO last season, he has just two and a .107 ISO despite a similar contact profile this year, he is a viable option at $3,700/$3,000 when going to Mariners bats in this matchup. Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez are an enviable young power core projected in the third and fourth spots in the lineup tonight. Kelenic has been mostly good this season, he has eight home runs and a .272 ISO while creating runs 49% better than average, Rodriguez has slumped badly from last year however, the sophomore outfielder is slashing just .215/.283/.399 with a .184 ISO and 93 WRC+. He does have seven home runs and seven stolen bases for MLB DFS purposes, but we were expecting more from the burgeoning star. Rodriguez does have a sturdy 11% barrel rate and 45% hard-hit rate for the year but his strikeouts are up and those contact metrics represent a bit of a dip from last year’s 13.1% barrel rate and 50.7% hard-hit rate. Eugenio Suarez has been bad, the veteran third baseman is slashing .219/.316/.311 with a .093 ISO and 85 WRC+ and he has hit just three home runs this season. Suarez is cheap for the believers and he has been an excellent source of power for the last several seasons, it would be a major surprise if he has truly evaporated in front of our eyes this year. Cal Raleigh has five home runs in 133 plate appearances with a .195 ISO and a 14.3% barrel rate that should support more power output to come. Raleigh is a good buy at catcher when rostering Mariners but his home run mark sits at just 3.27 in the matchup against Houck. Teoscar Hernandez is another player who strikes the ball very well with regularity, he has a 14.9% barrel rate and 46.5% hard-hit rate for the year with eight home runs and a .185 ISO. Hernandez is another cheap power hitter in this lineup at $3,600/$2,800 but his run creation mark is 11% below average for the season and his triple-slash is down across the board in a bad matchup. Taylor Trammell has two home runs in 25 plate appearances but this is probably not the best spot for the cheap young outfielder unless one is creating numerous stacks of Mariners. Kolten Wong is a capable veteran with mid-range power and speed, but he has had a flat start to his season across 99 plate appearances. With their 5.20-run implied team total and the favorable hitting conditions in Boston tonight, it makes sense to roster stacks of Mariners in shares that at least approach the field’s expected allocation.
Control-and-command specialist George Kirby is on the bump for the visitors from Seattle, he looks like the somewhat better option between the two starters and he has Boston’s implied team total at 4.91 in the strong hitting conditions. Kirby has been excellent at limiting opportunities for opposing teams throughout the early part of his career. The righty had a 4.1% walk rate last season while pitching to a 3.39 ERA and 3.33 xFIP with a 24.5% strikeout rate in 130 innings and 25 starts. This season he has thrown 44.2 innings in seven starts while posting a 1.7% walk rate with a 2.62 ERA and 3.70 xFIP. His strikeouts are down somewhat at just 20% but he has a nine percent swinging-strike rate with a 25.9% CSW% that are both almost identical to last season. Kirby has been good at limiting premium contact this year, in the small sample he has kept barrels to just 3.7% with 31.1% hard hits and a 1.14% home run rate on 86.6 mph of average exit velocity. The righty costs $9,400/$10,000 and it seems likely that he will be less popular based on the high total and expectations of run-scoring in Boston tonight, the less popular he is the more interesting he would become. The Red Sox lineup is playable as well, of course. Alex Verdugo is an excellent leadoff hitter who has created runs 35% better than average while hitting five home runs and posting a .191 ISO of his own so far this year; Masataka Yoshida has six home runs and two stolen bases with a .191 ISO while creating runs 37% better than average and hitting the ball hard at a 44.4% clip with just a 10% strikeout rate over 150 opportunities in his debut season; and veteran Justin Turner remains capable with a 107 WRC+ and three home runs, despite just a .119 ISO and .265/.362/.384 triple-slash. That trio of hitters leads to Rafael Devers, the big lefty is projected to hit cleanup tonight, he has 11 home runs while slashing .255/.304/.529 with a .274 ISO and significant home run upside if the wind continues pushing out to right field. Jarren Duran has two home runs and is slashing .345/.404/.552 with a .207 ISO and 158 WRC+ in what is now an extended run of 99 plate appearances. Triston Casas is yet another lefty who makes premium contact when he connects. The first baseman has an 11% barrel rate and 41.1% hard-hit rate for the season but has scuffled to just .192/.328/.375 with five home runs in 128 chances. Emmanuel Valdez has hit two home runs and stolen three bases in his 51 plate appearances, the infielder costs just $3,100 at second base on DraftKings and $2,700 at third base on FanDuel and makes for an interesting value piece when stacking Red Sox. Enrique Hernandez slots in with a .234/.292/.348 while creating runs 28% worse than average in 154 plate appearances in 2023, and we continue to prefer Connor Wong to Reese McGuire at catcher, though the lefty McGuire will probably see the start against Kirby tonight.
Play: Four corners of this one are playable, but the conditions appear to be favoring bats. Mariners, Red Sox, Kirby, Houck in that order of preference, neither pitcher is mandatory but Kirby will be in our pool while Houck is more likely to be excluded
Update Notes: Seattle’s lineup looks like we expected it to. Boston has Duran in the leadoff spot ahead of Verdugo-Turner-Devers-Casas-Raimel Tapia–Pablo Reyes-Valdez-Wong, with Yoshida as the key bat out of the lineup. Won is a good catcher with four home runs in 91 plate appearances and a sturdy contact profile, Reyes slots in as a cheap shortstop, Tapia has not done much in his 57 plate appearances this year but he has four stolen bases and a home run to his credit. Duran gains value in the leadoff role.
Milwaukee Brewers (-110/4.11) @ St. Louis Cardinals (+102/3.98)
Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty can get outs at any velocity. At least in his own mind. The struggling righty gave a bizarre interview to the media the other day but, despite his claims, he has not been able to get many hitters out at all this year and he has been mostly struggling for strikeouts and general quality. Flaherty has struck out just three in his last two starts, one of which was a clunker with 10 earned runs charged on nine hits in just 2.1 innings against the Angels. The righty had a seven-strikeout game before that and he struck out nine Mariners hitters in the start prior to that outing, so there was some hope of rounding into form, but questions are definitely lingering around a frequently injured starter who now sports a 6.18 ERA and 5.05 xFIP with a 1.73 WHIP in 39.1 innings and eight starts this season. Flaherty has struck out 22% but he has walked 15.3% so far, a wildly unsustainable rate for a starter who is also yielding a 12.1% barrel rate with 41.1% hard hits. Flaherty costs just $7,600/$8,200, he can be used as a dart throw in large field tournaments but there is very little faith in this corner right now. The Brewers star has come to life in recent games, Christian Yelich had a big weekend and now sits at 112 WRC+ with seven home runs and a .168 ISO. Yelich is slashing .262/.341/.430, his barrel rate is 9.2% and his hard-hit rate is 57.8%, and “he’s back” is ringing out from all around Wisconsin and MLB DFS communities. In truth, as we have focused on in this space all year, Yelich never left, he just stopped elevating the ball. When he does, his always-good hard-hit rate takes care of basically everything else. Yelich remains cheap at $4,700/$3,100, the price will be higher in a few days. Jesse Winker has zero home runs and is slashing .218/.347/.256 with an 80 WRC+ and .038 ISO in a big disappointment over 95 plate appearances. Willy Adames costs just $4,200/$3,000 and has major power at a premium position. Adames has eight home runs so far this season and is carrying an 8.85 in our home run model tonight. Rowdy Tellez pushes past his teammate to a 10.94 in the home run model, the big lefty has a 12.4% barrel rate and 40.4% hard-hit rate that have delivered 10 home runs in 141 plate appearances so far this season. Adding Tellez to Adames and Yelich is a cheap proposition at just $4,400/$3,100. William Contreras has three home runs with a 120 WRC+ for the season, Brian Anderson has five home runs with a 104 but has been in a downswing after a hot start. Brice Turang has three home runs and five stolen bases in 115 plate appearances, and Joey Weimer has the same totals in 131 opportunities, but they are creating runs at 21% and 32% below average respectively. Tyrone Taylor is projected to hit between them, he has more power upside but has just a 32 WRC+ in his 37 chances this year, with one home run. Taylor hit 17 in 405 opportunities last year, he is a $2,200/$2,500 low-end power option from late in the lineup.
The Cardinals are facing Freddy Peralta who has an excellent track record for limiting premium contact and power upside, which is keeping the typically stout Cardinals’ power numbers very much in check tonight. Peralta has been very good in limiting barrels to just 6.4% and hard hits to 34.9% this season, but those marks are actually both up from the last two years. In 78 innings and 17 starts last season, the righty allowed just a 3.5% barrel rate and a 31.3% hard-hit rate with a 1.89% home run rate, and in 2021 he threw 144.1 innings and allowed a six percent barrel rate with 31.1% hard hits and a 2.41% home run rate while also striking out a fantastic 33.6%. His strikeout rate last year was 27.1% with a 3.58 ERA and 3.66 xFIP, which aligns very well with this season’s 27.1% strikeout rate, 3.32 ERA, and 3.70 xFIP in 40.2 innings and seven starts. Peralta is fairly priced at $9,000/$10,900 and is a good buy on both sites, the FanDuel salary should keep his ownership down. The Cardinals lose some quality overall against right-handed pitching, there are very good hitters in the lineup in general, but with Peralta on the mound it looks like they are a lower-midrange option tonight. Lars Nootbaar leads off the projected lineup, he has three home runs with a .302/.432/.448 triple-slash while creating runs 50% better than average in 118 plate appearances. Paul Goldschmidt is expensive at first base but the All-Star is worth the investment, he has created runs 59% better than average and has been rolling with seven home runs and five stolen bases this year. Nolan Gorman brings another sturdy left-handed power bat to the top of the lineup if he is hitting third as expected. The second baseman has nine home runs to lead this team at this point and his 15.7% barrel rate and 50.6% hard-hit rate show upside for even more power. Nolan Arenado has come to life in recent games, he is now slashing .256/.302/.406 with a .150 ISO and 95 WRC+ with six home runs in 172 plate appearances, a turnaround would be very welcome in St. Louis for the star third baseman. Willson Contreras is now expected to return to catching duties tonight, which shows how strange things have gotten early in the season for this Cardinals team that may be in need of a leadership change. Contreras is good at the plate, he has three home runs and a 109 WRC+ so far this year. Brendan Donovan should be in the lineup, the left-handed utility man slots in at second base or the outfield for just $3,400 on DraftKings but is only a second baseman for $2,600 on FanDuel. Donovan is slashing .261/.331/.369 with a 97 WRC+ and three home runs in 124 chances this year. Paul DeJong is slashing .309/.367/.582 with four home runs in just 60 plate appearances since his return, he is playable late in the lineup if he is in but there is not much home run upside for the righty infielder against Peralta. Alec Burleson and Tommy Edman round out the lineup, Edman seems like the better play as a potential wraparound to the powerful top-end, but the upside for the Cardinals is somewhat limited and they have just a 3.98-run implied team total tonight.
Play: Brewers bats/stacks, Freddy Peralta
Update Notes: the Brewers lineup is as expected.
Atlanta Braves (-136/4.88) @ Texas Rangers (+126/4.21)
The Braves are in Texas to face the Rangers in the debut of lefty Cody Bradford, a 25-year-old former sixth-round pick. Bradford threw 118.2 innings in AA last year, pitching to a 5.01 ERA with a 4.88 xFIP and a 24.7% strikeout rate. The lefty has a matching strikeout rate in 39.2 innings in AAA this season with an absurd ERA to xFIP differential of an ERA at 0.91 and an xFIP that sits at 5.19. The latter mark is probably far more telling of the true quality of the unranked prospect, Bradford looks more like a target for bats, he allowed 18 home runs to 503 hitters in AA last year, a 3.58% home run rate, the Braves are notably somewhat better than the average AA team. Ronald Acuna Jr. has a 13.40 in our home run model, landing him third on the Braves today. The superstar outfielder is slashing .346/.437/.577 with a .231 ISO while creating runs 74% better than average over 183 plate appearances, he has eight home runs and 17 stolen bases and is worth the $6,300/$4,600 asking price. Acuna has immense power to go with his outrageously good everything, he makes fantastic contact with regularity, posting a current-year barrel rate of 14.3% with a 52.6% hard-hit rate. Matt Olson is at a 17.8% barrel rate and 51.1% hard-hit rate, he has 11 home runs on the season with a .273 ISO and has created runs 34% better than average. Olson is a bit cheap on the DraftKings slate, his FanDuel price seems more correct, the first baseman costs $5,500/$4,100. Austin Riley has six home runs with just a .149 ISO and a league average 100 WRC+ over 177 uncharacteristic plate appearances. The third baseman hit 38 home runs with a 142 WRC+ last year and 33 with a 135 WRC+ the year before, his slump has been a concern but all expectations are that Riley will hit. Sean Murphy has no such concerns, the catcher is having an outrageously good season. Murphy leads the team with a 21.8% barrel rate and has a 44.8% hard-hit rate in his 146 plate appearances, translating the premium contact into nine home runs and a .303 ISO. The backstop has created runs 64% better than average, he can be used on both sites with enthusiasm, Murphy is not the typical catcher with the bat in his hands, which is why he costs $4,200 on FanDuel, yet he is priced at just $5,000 on the DraftKings slate. Ozzie Albies moved up in the lineup and delivered last night, he returns to the fifth spot in the projected batting order and now has 10 home runs with a .247 ISO and 112 WRC+. Albies is a star second baseman who is not treated like one, he is priced at just $4,800/$3,300. Marcell Ozuna has seven home runs and a .245 ISO but is slashing .170/.278/.415. The outfielder strikes out just 21.3% of the time, he is not a problematic over-swinger, and he has a 13% walk rate that does not make sense with his lowly on-base percentage until one takes note of a ridiculously bad .141 batting average on balls in play. Ozuna has been hitting the ball very hard with regularity and has gotten extraordinarily unlucky with some of the results, he is better than what can be seen in the surface stats, his barrel rate sits at 15.5% with a 43.7% hard-hit rate, for example, and he costs just $2,600/$2,800 with a 10.90 in our home run model. Kevin Pillar has four home runs with a .224 ISO in an early power display over 72 plate appearances, but the veteran is here more for defense. Michael Harriss II has scuffled and missed time in his sophomore season, he is slashing just .217/.319/.317 with one home run and four stolen bases. Orlando Arcia has two home runs and is slashing .313/.361/.478 over 72 plate appearances but is not much of a home-run hitter. At just $3,600/$2,900 at shortstop on DraftKings and with three-position eligibility on FanDuel, Arcia could be sneaky-interesting from the bottom of the Atlanta lineup in a handful of stacks of Braves.
The hometown Rangers draw Charlie Morton, who has seen a big dip in strikeouts and is throwing lower-quality stuff, but who has also not been completely terrible to start the season. Morton’s strikeout rate is down from 28.6% in 2021 and 28.2% last year to just 21.9% over 40.2 innings and seven starts this year. His swinging-strike rate and CSW% are both down by about two percentage points year-over-year as well, but he has managed to pitch to a 3.32 ERA and 4.34 xFIP despite fewer strikeouts and a higher walk rate. Morton has kept average launch angles to just 5.1 degrees so far this year, which has helped limit opposing home runs to just 2.25% on 88.2 mph of average exit velocity, he has allowed four home runs to 178 hitters in the seven starts and has pitched into the sixth inning or beyond in all but one of his outings. The Rangers have been elite for runs this season, but there are a number of free-swingers in their lineup, at $8,500/$9,800 there is at least a path for Morton to find a handful of strikeouts while pitching six or seven clean innings, this is a potentially good spot for the veteran starter at what should be fairly low tournament ownership around the industry, a notion that seems to be playing out somewhat in the team’s 4.21-run implied total. The Rangers are in play but they are only a mid-range stack on this slate. If Corey Seager makes his return to the lineup tonight they would see a potential boost, but that has yet to be confirmed. The projected lineup includes usual leadoff man Marcus Semien, who is pricey in the matchup at $5,700/$4,300 but probably worthwhile when going to this team. Semien has been their best player over the early part of the season, he has seven home runs and seven stolen bases while creating runs 36% better than average at a premium position. Robbie Grossman has a 96 WRC+ and a .301 on-base percentage, the Rangers would see a big bump if Seager returns to this spot in the lineup. Nathaniel Lowe has created runs 20% better than average in 180 plate appearances, Adolis Garcia is at the same run-creation rate in 170 opportunities. The everyday duo in the heart of the Rangers order have combined for 15 home runs with 10 of them belonging to Garcia, they make an affordable pair at $4,600/$3,100 and $5,700/$4,000. Josh Jung has eight home runs and a .195 ISO this year but has slipped to just 98 WRC+. Jonah Heim has been a very good catcher for MLB DFS early in the season, he has six home runs with a .218 ISO and 150 WRC+ but costs just $3,900 on DraftKings. The catcher is the same price on the FanDuel slate, he has a 12.2% barrel rate and 42.9% hard-hit for the season and is mispriced where the position is mandatory. Ezequiel Duran could hit the pine if Seager returns, but he will not deserve to if that unfolds. Duran is slashing .304/.339/.491 with a 128 WRC+, five home runs, and two stolen bases in 118 plate appearances, giving Texas a nice problem to have in figuring out their daily lineup once the star shortstop is back in the mix. Leody Taveras and Josh Smith are mix-and-match players who have been very good for run creation this year, Taveras sits at 116 WRC+ over 106 opportunities and Smith 121 in 81 chances.
Play: Braves bats/stacks aggressively, Charlie Morton, Rangers bats/stacks in smaller doses
Update Notes: the Braves have Albies hitting third in a great bump for the second baseman, Riley slides to fourth, Murphy is fifth ahead of Ozuna-Pillar-Harris-Arcia. The Rangers lineup is as anticipated.
Chicago Cubs (+168/3.22) @ Houston Astros (-185/4.38)
Another pitcher who largely drains home run upside from opposing lineups will be on the mound for the Astros tonight. Southpaw Framber Valdez is excellent at keeping the ball on the ground, he had a -3.6-degree average launch angle allowed last season and a -5.5 mark the year before, posting home run rates of 1.33% and 2.10% despite a fair amount of hard hits. This season, Valdez is sitting at a 2.38% home run rate with a 1.3-degree average launch angle against, but he has allowed a few more sturdy hits with a barrel rate that has climbed from 5.8% to 8.5% in the small eight-start sample. Valdez has been mostly excellent across the board, he has a sparkling 2.38 ERA and 2.60 xFIP with a 1.04 WHIP and his strikeouts have bounced way up at 27.1% with just a 4.8% walk rate. Valdez is an excellent option on the mound at $10,700 on both sites. The Cubs are a team that has gotten a good amount of love in this space, they have a number of bats that we like a lot, but this does not seem like their night. The free-swinging approach in the lineup could lend additional strikeouts to the opposing pitcher, boosting Valdez’ upside by a bit, and his ability to cap their home run power while also checking walks could be problematic for sequencing and run creation. Valdez did walk 8.1% last year and 10.1% the season before while striking out far fewer, but he was very good in those years despite the free passes. Double plays come more frequently and it is easier to get out of jams when everything is hit on the ground, Valdez seems like a fair bet to suppress the Cubs’ upside for MLB DFS. Those rostering Chicago bats should focus on Christopher Morel who is in a great position as the team’s leadoff man ahead of a productive group of bats including Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Cody Bellinger, and Patrick Wisdom. Those five players have an average WRC+ of 31% better than average for run creation this season, Swanson has three home runs, Happ has four, Suzuki has two, Bellinger has seven, and Wisdom has 12. Trey Mancini has hit three home runs but has just a .107 ISO and 89 WRC+ over 136 chances, his 41.9% hard-hit rate is something to fall back on, but Yan Gomes may be the better option between the two. The catcher has six home runs and a .247 ISO this season and is not far removed from a 14 home run year in 375 chances in 2021. Nick Madrigal closes out the projected lineup for the Cubs low-end stack tonight.
Right-handed starter Jameson Taillon is not having the same degree of suppressive impact on the Houston lineup in terms of power, he has not been great over five starts and only 19.2 innings. Taillon came out after giving up four runs including two home runs and striking out five while walking two in just 2.2 innings against the Cardinals the last time out, he had a short start with just three innings pitched in his return from the injured list against the Nationals the game before, allowing three runs on three hits with a home run while striking out four. Taillon struck out seven in each of two outings prior to his groin injury, but he was not good in one of those and threw just five innings in each. The righty seems like a low-end option at $7,500 on both sites tonight. Mauricio Dubon leads off for an Astros team that has underwhelmed in its current form. Dubon is creating runs 13% below average, Alex Bregman is 14% below average in 178 opportunities out of the second spot in the projected lineup. The lack of productivity up top has a trickle-down impact through the lineup, Dubon is slashing .291/.313/.362 and has just a .071 ISO, Bregman is at .204/.320/.322 with a .118 ISO and four home runs. Yordan Alvarez has nine home runs and a 162 WRC+ with a .280 ISO as easily the team’s best player, but the power and run creation are down for lefty outfielder Kyle Tucker who comes into today with six home runs but just a .171 ISO after posting a .221 ISO with 30 home runs last year and reaching the same home run total with a .263 ISO in 2021. Tucker moved up the lineup in an effort to jumpstart the season for both him and badly struggling Jose Abreu, who is slashing .214/.262/.253 with a .039 ISO and 43 WRC+ this season. Abreu has still not hit a home run since last August. Jeremy Pena has a 102 WRC+ and .176 ISO with six home runs and six stolen bases, which almost exactly matches his output from last season, but his barrel rate is down and his walk rate is not strong. Pena is perhaps a bit pricey but he is playable in stacks at $4,900/$3,000. Chas McCormick has two home runs and four stolen bases in 56 plate appearances but his typically good contact has yet to arrive this year, the outfielder is cheap at $3,700 on DraftKings, but his $3,700 on FanDuel seems out of line with performance and opportunity hitting this low in the lineup at this point. Corey Julks and Martin Maldonado round out the projected lineup.
Play: Framber Valdez, minor interest in Astros bats, maybe a few Jameson Taillon darts but it feels thin with a lack of innings depth
Update Notes: Houston’s lineup is confirmed as projected. The Cubs lineup is confirmed as projected.
Cincinnati Reds (-117/6.00) @ Colorado Rockies (+108/5.63)
A game in Colorado has us likely looking past both pitchers tonight. There is nothing to talk about with the Rockies’ righty Connor Seabold who looks like a big flashing target against even the lousy Reds lineup tonight. Cincinnati righty Hunter Greene would typically warrant discussion and has a narrow path to a successful low-owned score tonight on the back of a robust 29% strikeout rate this year and the 30.9% that he posted in 125.2 innings last season, but the young flyball pitcher seems like an unlikely investment with his 45.3% hard-hit rate and 91.1 mph average exit velocity allowed on an 8.5% barrel rate so far this year. Even in his good year last season, Greene gave up a 4.52% home run rate on a 9.4% barrel rate and 20.7-degree average launch angle, and 40.1% hard hits. The bats are the play at Coors Field today.
The Reds look like a much better option than usual with a number of players at or around the magic number in our home run model tonight. Cincinnati has not been good overall this season, but Coors cures a lot of illnesses (Editor’s Note: this advice is restricted to baseball and not the consumption of the weak 99.4% water “beer” sold by the Coors company, which as near as we can tell cures nothing, including sobriety). Jonathan India leads off, he is slashing .295/.387/.438 with a 123 WRC+ over 173 productive plate appearances this year. India is the team’s only pricey hitter tonight at $5,600/$4,100 but he is their most capable bat and he should be a major investment for many gamers tonight when rostering Reds. Jake Fraley has a team-leading 13.57 in our home run model tonight, the left-handed outfielder has five home runs with a .190 ISO in 123 plate appearances this year despite just a 27.5% hard-hit rate. Spencer Steer has hit five home runs and also has a .190 ISO this year, he has a 7.8% barrel rate and 40.2% hard-hit so far this year while creating runs one percent better than average. Catcher Tyler Stephenson checks in at just $4,800/$3,200, he has two home runs this year but has created runs 14% below average with a very slight .086 ISO. Former top prospect Nick Senzel has made 105 plate appearances so far this year, he has created runs exactly at league average with three home runs and three stolen bases in a nice but limited story to start the season. Senzel has not had a major outburst, but just playing every day is a good sign for the toolsy player. Henry Ramos costs $3,000 on both sites, he has zero home runs in 64 plate appearances with a .054 ISO and has created runs 30% below average so far this year. Wil Myers has been another disappointing Reds hitter, he has three home runs with a 51 WRC+ in 112 plate appearances. Stuart Fairchild checks in with a 10.02 in our home run model as a sneaky power bat late in the lineup at Coors Field, he has just one home run this season and hit five in 110 plate appearances last year. Matt McLain is expected to debut in the ninth spot in the lineup, he is a highly-regarded prospect with mid-range power and speed. McLain hit 17 home runs and stole 27 bases in 452 plate appearances in AA last season, in 173 opportunities at AAA this year he has forced the Reds’ hand with 12 home runs and 10 stolen bases while slashing .348/.474/.710 and posting a massive .362 ISO and a 193 WRC+. AAA is not the Major Leagues, but in a Coors Field game the rookie could be in for a big debut at the minimum price on DraftKings, he is absent from the FanDuel slate.
The Rockies are the lower-end option with the idea of Greene punching at least a few strikeout holes while he is in the game, but they are still carrying a 5.63-run implied team total and warrant attention. Charlie Blackmon is projected to lead off, the lefty outfielder is slashing .282/.378/.420 with a 108 WRC+ and three home runs, he is more of a correlated scoring piece at this point in his career but definitely belongs in stacks. Jurickson Profar has five home runs with an 82 WRC+ in 161 plate appearances as a low-end option who should probably be less expensive. Kris Bryant has been good in his 163 plate appearances despite a lack of power generation. Bryant has five home runs this year but just a .137 ISO while creating runs 12% better than average, he is slashing .301/.374/.438 but his contact profile is limited to 6.1% barrels and a 31.3% hard-hit rate. Ryan McMahon is a good mix-and-match option on the left side of the plate, he has a 14.1% barrel rate and 48.9% hard-hit rate this season with four home runs and a .183 ISO, but he has slipped to 28% below average for run creation overall. Elias Diaz has been a highly productive catcher for MLB DFS so far this year, he is slashing .328/.380/.457 with a 116 WRC+ in 129 plate appearances. Randal Grichuk has a 10.17 to lead the Rockies in our home run model tonight, he has one home run in the books in 48 plate appearances but has created runs 43% better than average in the small sample. Harold Castro, Ezequiel Tovar, and Alan Trejo round out the projected lineup for Colorado.
Play: bats bats bats
Update Notes: Cincinnati has McLain hitting second in a nice bump to the min-priced rookie with the hot minor league bat, McLain is very interesting to us in this spot in the lineup, hitting between India and Fraley. Fairchild will hit ninth behind Ramos and Myers to end the lineup. The Rockies lineup includes Austin Wynns as a min-priced catcher on DraftKings and Brenton Doyle at $2,900/$3,100 in the outfield. Doyle has two home runs and six steals in 47 plate appearances.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-203/5.37) @ Oakland Athletics (+184/3.75)
The Diamondbacks are facing Drew Rucinski in a great matchup for hitting that has them at a 5.37-run implied team total. The righty has an 8.2% strikeout rate with an 8.16 ERA and 6.65 xFIP in his 14.1 innings and three starts this season since his return from the KBO. Rucinski may have been better off staying as a star in the enjoyable South Korean league, he has not done well at the Major League level and he looks like a target who is a non-entity for MLB DFS purposes on the mound. Josh Rojas is slashing .259/.310/.353 with a .095 ISO and an 80 WRC+ in 130 plate appearances this year with zero home runs and four stolen bases. The infielder was more productive last season, he had a 108 WRC+ with nine home runs and 23 stolen bases and comes fairly cheap at $4,600/$2,900 with second base and third base eligibility on DraftKings. Ketel Marte is slashing .264/.331/.465 with a .201 ISO while creating runs 14% better than average in 163 plate appearances this year with a 9.8% barrel rate and 42.3% hard-hit. Marte is affordable at $5,000/$3,100 as a second baseman on both sites. Corbin Carroll has five home runs and 10 stolen bases in his 146 plate appearances this year, he has created runs 26% better than average in the sample with a 10% barrel rate and 43% mark for hard hits and comes at a very fair price in the matchup for just $5,200/$3,300. Christian Walker has a team-leading 12.27 in the home run model today, the slugger has nine so far on the season with a 10.1% barrel rate but just 38.7% hard hits. Walker was at an 11.5% barrel rate and 44% hard hits when he went for 36 home runs last season, there could be further upside to come if the contact profile rounds into form, for $4,500/$3,500 we are enthusiastic about being a part of finding out. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is slashing .308/.363/.519 with five home runs and a 138 WRC+ in 146 plate appearances, he is a good option at $3,200 on FanDuel and becomes an excellent choice when looking at his $3,900 DraftKings price. Pavin Smith is slashing .279/.410/.412 with a 133 WRC+ in 83 plate appearances. Dominic Fletcher is earning a full-time role with a .429/.455/.690 and two home runs while creating runs 111% better than average over his first 46 plate appearances, the lefty outfielder comes cheap at $2,400/$2,800 and pairs well with Smith in late-lineup stacks. Gabriel Moreno is slashing .320/.339/.398 while creating runs at league average, he is an affordable catcher, Geraldo Perdomo closes out the lineup at a 151 WRC+ in 101 plate appearances so far this year, he is an affordable infielder somewhere between last year’s awful performance and this year’s absurdly hot start.
Merrill Kelly takes the mound for the visiting Diamondbacks and sees the usual bump in projections that games against this Athletics team have been providing pitchers, particularly in the favorable pitching environment in Oakland. Kelly has a 25.6% strikeout rate with a 3.18 ERA, a 4.02 xFIP, and a 1.15 WHIP so far this year. The righty has made eight starts and thrown 45.1 innings and has been basically on his expected form throughout. Kelly threw 200.2 innings and made 33 starts last season, posting a 22% strikeout rate with a 3.37 ERA and 3.85 xFIP with a 1.14 WHIP. Kelly costs just $8,800/$9,700, he is a terrific option against the Athletics tonight and should be highly owned on both sites, the DraftKings price is particularly appealing, Kelly should be at least $1,000 more expensive on the two-pitcher site tonight. The Athletics lineup includes a few players who have seen hot streaks or have individual skills, one of which is Esteury Ruiz a speed-burner in the leadoff role. Ruiz has stolen 18 bases while slashing .270/.331/.362 with a .092 ISO and a 102 WRC+ over 182 plate appearances. Ryan Noda is a lefty who has three home urns and a .194 ISO with a 144 WRC+ in 128 plate appearances as one of the team’s more productive hitters. Noda costs just $2,900/$2,800 at first base, he has a 12.3% barrel rate and 40.4% hard-hit rate to start the season. Brent Rooker slots in at $3,700/$4,300, we side with DraftKings if price determines quality. Rooker has 11 home runs in 143 plate appearances and is slashing .308/.420/.650 with a .342 ISO while creating runs 94% better than average and keeping strikeouts to 23.8% with a 21.2% barrel rate and 54.1% hard-hit rate. For the month of May, Rooker is slashing .245/.351/.469 with a .224 ISO and 134 WRC+ and he has hit two home runs in 57 plate appearances, while he has maintained productivity the dip has begun and will be sustained, Rooker is a better buy on the DraftKings slate where there is no tax for past performance. JJ Bleday is slashing .324/.359/.649 with a .324 ISO and 180 WRC+ in his 39 plate appearances and he has hit three home runs, Bleday is a mid-range prospect at age 25 but he does have power upside. Ramon Laureano has three home runs and three stolen bases with a 102 WRC+ in 108 opportunities but has struck out at a 26.9% rate so far this year, Jace Peterson should help pad Kelly’s strikeouts as well, he is at a 26% rate this year and was at 25.9% last season. Peterson has two home runs and is slashing .209/.307/.300. Shea Langeliers has seven home runs with a .202 ISO and a 107 WRC+, he is a capable catcher and one of the team’s MLB-caliber players. Tony Kemp and Nick Allen close out the low-end lineup with a 43 and a 7 WRC+ over 136 and 57 plate appearances respectively.
Play: Diamondbacks bats/stacks enthusiastically, Merill Kelly
Update Notes: Christian Walker is out of the lineup for Arizona in a hit to their overall quality, Gurriel hits cleanup ahead of the projected lineup with Alek Thomas providing low-end power in the eighth spot.
Kansas City Royals (+194/3.69) @ San Diego Padres (-214/5.43)
Veteran righty Michael Wacha has the Royals’ implied team total in check at just 3.69 tonight, but the team is showing good upside for individual home run opportunities, which could lead to run creation for the frisky-but-limited squad. Wacha has a 4.82 ERA and 5.06 xFIP over 37.1 innings in seven starts this season. The righty has struck out 18.6% and walked 7.5% so far this year, posting a 1.34 WHIP with just an 8.9% swinging-strike rate and 25.3% CSW%. Wacha tends to not get completely tattooed however, he has just a 2.48% home run rate and has kept average exit velocity to just 86.2 mph with 28.8% hard hits, which is similar to the 35.4% hard-hit rate and 88.2 mph of average exit velocity he allowed in 127.1 innings while striking out a few more at 20.2% last season. Wacha costs $7,800/$9,200, he is more in play at the cheap DraftKings price but a few FanDuel darts are not necessarily a mistake. At the same time, rostering some of the Royals top end seems like a good play at what should be low ownership. Bobby Witt Jr. has a 10.30 in our home run mode, he has hit seven this season while stealing 12 bases in 181 plate appearances but is still creating runs 11% below average. That mark should be higher soon enough, Witt has a .209 ISO with a 12% barrel rate and 44.4% hard-hit rate and puts a good number of balls in play. Vinnie Pasquantino has a 46.4% hard-hit rate with seven home runs and a .218 ISO and he has created runs 30% better than average in 181 plate appearances of his own, the first baseman is way too cheap at $4,200/$3,300. Sal Perez has hit nine home runs and he has a .252 ISO with a 139 WRC+ while slashing .301/.346/.552 in 156 plate appearances. Perez is another excellent catcher who can hit for power and can be utilized as an everyday option where catchers are not required. The backstop has a 12.2% barrel rate and 48.7% hard-hit rate this season. MJ Melendez has a 12.9% barrel rate and 58.1% hard-hit rate this year, he costs just $3,700/$2,800 because he has hit just four home runs and is slashing .221/.302/.379 with a .157 ISO overall while striking out 30.8% of the time. Edward Olivares and Nick Pratto are good options with some power upside from the bottom half of the lineup. Olivares has three home runs and three stolen bases, Pratto has two home runs in just 69 plate appearances and has created runs 70% better than average in the small sample. Maikel Garcia, Michael Massey, and Jackie Bradley Jr. round out the projected lineup for Kansas City.
The matchup against Brad Keller is playing strongly in favor of the top-heavy star-laden Padres lineup. San Diego lands at 5.43 implied runs tonight, a total that seems even a bit light against Keller. The righty has a 4.31 ERA and 5.64 xFIP this season, he has been saved, as always, by a moderate talent for keeping the ball down, but he lacks the strikeout upside or quality of stuff of better pitchers we have discussed with that attribute. Keller has a 16.3% strikeout rate and has walked 18% of opposing hitters in 39.2 innings and eight starts this year, a wildly unsustainable combination at this level for any pitcher. This is a big target on this slate, the Padres will undoubtedly be popular, but deservedly so. Fernando Tatis Jr. has five home runs and three stolen bases with a .217 ISO and 128 WRC+ over 98 plate appearances, the star outfielder has shortstop eligibility on FanDuel and is too cheap at $5,800/$3,700. Jake Cronenworth slots in second, he has first base and second base eligibility on both sites for $3,800/$2,800 and is a capable contributor amongst the stars. Cronenworth had a 110 WRC+ with 17 home runs in 684 plate appearances last year. Manny Machado has a .142 ISO and 81 WRC+ with five home runs on the board and an uncharacteristic .232/.280/.374 triple-slash. Juan Soto has a robust 16% barrel rate and 58.5% hard-hit percentage with seven home runs and a .228 ISO this season. Soto has created runs 46% better than average while walking at a 19.9% clip this year, he is a terrific hitter who is too cheap at $5,300/$3,500 in this matchup. Xander Bogaerts costs $4,600/$3,100 at shortstop, he has six home runs and four stolen bases while creating runs 23% better than average. Lefty Matt Carpenter costs $2,600 on both sites at first base, he has three home runs with a .190 ISO this season and hit 15 home runs in 154 ridiculous plate appearances last year after being out of baseball for basically three seasons. Ha-Seong Kim, Trent Grisham, and Brett Sullivan round out the projected Padres lineup, Grisham is at a 100 WRC+ the other two are below average for run creation and provide only limited appeal for MLB DFS tonight.
Play: Padres bats/stacks, small shares of Royals bats/stacks, Michael Wacha DraftKings SP2 value darts if desired
Update Notes:
Philadelphia Phillies (+105/4.44) @ San Francisco Giants (-113/4.65)
Veteran Alex Wood will be making his fourth start of the season and second appearance since returning from the injured list. Wood made three short starts early in the season, pitching 3.0, 4.2, and 2.1 innings before missing time then returning for an inning of relief work. In the tiny sample, Wood has a 22.2% strikeout rate but just a 7.6% swinging-strike rate and a 5.44 xFIP with a 1.64 WHIP, he does not seem trustworthy at $7,100/$7,000 against the Phillies lineup tonight. Philadelphia comes in with a 4.44-run implied team total as an upper-mid option for stacking on this slate. Bryson Stott is projected to lead off for $4,500/$2,800 at second base on both sites. Stott is 13% below average for run creation for the season but he has a pair of home runs and five stolen bases and is in a good spot to provide correlated scoring at a cheap price. Trea Turner has had a down year at the plate over his first 180 opportunities, the star shortstop is slashing just .262/.311/.405 with a 92 WRC+ and .143 ISO. Turner has four home runs and five stolen bases and needs to get his season in gear, he is priced down to just $5,200/$3,000 for the slow start and should be played with enthusiasm. Bryce Harper is slashing .333/.409/.564 with a .231 ISO and a pair of home runs in 44 plate appearances, he is a great option in the outfield and adds first base eligibility on the blue site. Nick Castellanos has five home runs with a .187 ISO and he has created runs 37% better than average over 167 plate appearances this season in a full return to form. Castellanos is slashing .316/.365/.503 and still costs just $4,900/$3,500. Kyle Schwarber has an 11.6% barrel rate and 42.1% hard-hit rate with nine home runs but he is scuffling at just .178/.294/.390. His .212 ISO is down from a .286 last season and he is somewhat off last year’s 46-home-run pace, but the power hitter is always in play and could go for two on any given day. JT Realmuto is in the projected lineup for just $5,200/$2,900, he has a 113 WRC+ in 135 plate appearances this year. Alec Bohm slots in at first and third base on both sites with a $4,000/$2,900 salary with four home runs and two stolen bases while creating runs five percent better than average. Brandon Marsh and Edmundo Sosa are good options late in the lineup. Marsh has been very good over 134 plate appearances this year, he has created runs 57% better than average and has hit four home runs while slashing .295/.410/.545 with a 50% hard-hit rate. Sosa has an 11.1% barrel rate and three home runs in 100 plate appearances.
San Francisco will be facing an opener prior to getting to lefty Bailey Falter who costs just $6,600/$7,300 tonight but does not seem to have a ton of upside even at the price. Falter has a 17% strikeout rate with a 4.54 xFIP and 1.39 WHIP while inducing just a 7.9% swinging-strike rate in seven starts and 36 innings this year. The Giants have an aggressive approach and pitchers can find strikeouts against them, but between the limited innings and the lack of current-year performance, there is not a ton to love about the pitcher outside of a slightly stronger 21.2% strikeout rate that he posted in 84 innings last year. Giants hitters are in play in the matchup, Thairo Estrada is projected to hit leadoff for $5,500/$3,600 at second base and shortstop on both sites, he is slashing .314/.364/.490 with a 137 WRC+ over 165 plate appearances and has been a very good player since the start of last season. Estrada has six home runs and 11 stolen bases this year. Wilmer Flores has six home runs with a .228 ISO and 112 WRC+ for just $2,800 at first base or third base on both sites, allowing gamers to cover the entire infield with Estrada and Flores in a variety of combinations of premium bats. Mitch Haniger has a 10.59 to lead the team in our home run model, he has hit two in 59 plate appearances but has scuffled somewhat since his return to the lineup which has him very cheap at $3,300/$2,600. JD Davis is slashing .293/.364/.488 with a .195 ISO and seven home runs, he has a 52.2% hard-hit rate and makes for a very good play at his cheap pricing. David Villar has bounced along the bottom this season at .148/.240/.318 with a 55 WRC+ in 100 plate appearances. Casey Schmitt hit two early home runs over his first 24 plate appearances, Michael Conforto has seven home runs but is slashing .193/.314/.387 in 140 opportunities, Joey Bart has a .059 ISO in 73 chances, and Brett Wisely has one home run with a 12 WRC+ in 55 plate appearances. The top end of the lineup is the far better option when rostering Giants hitters, but the confirmed lineup may look different with the team’s flexible approach.
Play: Phillies bats/stacks, Giants top end in smaller doses
Update Notes:
Minnesota Twins (+102/4.23) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-110/4.36)
Minnesota’s hard-hitting lineup is carrying a 4.23-run implied team total in Los Angeles tonight in a matchup against Noah Syndergaard who checks in at $6,900/$7,100. The righty has a 14.8% strikeout rate with a 4.70 xFIP and 6.12 ERA over 32.1 mediocre innings this season. He is very good at limiting walks, with just a 3.5% rate but he has allowed a good amount of power with a 3.52% home run rate and eight percent barrel rate allowed so far this year. Syndergaard does not seem like a great option, even with the Twins low-end strikeout rates and his low prices. Joey Gallo came up with a sore hamstring late in the game yesterday but he is expected to be in the lineup today and is projected to lead off again. Gallo has nine home runs and a 22.8% barrel rate with a 61.4% hard-hit rate this season amounting to a .374 ISO, he is a great option anywhere in the lineup at $4,100/$3,000 but he is even better if he leads off again. Alex Kirilloff has two home runs in 28 plate appearances and is a good lefty power prospect against the contact-oriented righty. Kirilloff is cheap at $2,800/$2,900 he helps the full stack come together when looking to the Twins lineup, but so does struggling star Carlos Correa who is slashing .207/.280/.407. Correa has a .200 ISO and six home runs on the season and he has a 12.7% barrel rate with a 45.5% hard-hit for the year, he will turn things around. Byron Buxton is a star who has a 13.3% barrel rate with eight home runs and a .244 ISO so far this year while creating runs 19% better than average. Jorge Polanco costs just $4,500/$2,800 with three home runs and a 105 WRC+ while barreling the ball in 12.3% of his batted-ball events. Trevor Larnach hits from the left side and he has a 13.2% barrel rate with a 42.6% hard-hit mark this season, the premium contact has turned into four home runs and a .162 ISO. Kyle Farmer, Nick Gordon, and Christian Vazquez close out the bottom third of the lineup, Farmer has been productive to start the season with a 122 WRC+ in 55 opportunities, Gordon and Vazquez can influence a slate on rare occasions.
The Dodgers All-Star team is facing Pablo Lopez who came out of the gate firing this season. Lopez had two bumpy outings in late April but has been otherwise excellent, posting a 3.47 ERA and 3.48 xFIP over 49.1 innings and eight starts. Lopez has boosted his strikeouts dramatically, posting a 31.2% strikeout rate with a 14.6% swinging-strike rate, he has been a good MLB DFS option and could succeed at $10,100/$10,400 at lower-than-expected ownership across the industry tonight. Lopez has allowed a 9.3% barrel rate with a 39% hard-hit rate this season which could play into the Dodgers’ power, but he has largely avoided the home run ball with just a 2.51% home run rate on 86.8 mph of average exit velocity. Lopez is facing a lineup that begins with superstar Mookie Betts who is back to being a shortstop and an outfielder on DraftKings while the blue site flips his infield eligibility to the other side of the diamond. Betts costs $5,400/$3,700, he has nine home runs with a .259 ISO and 138 WRC+ and a team-leading 13.25 in our home run model today. Freddie Freeman is slashing .302/.375/.512 with a .210 ISO and creating runs 40% better than average this year. Will Smith is a phenomenal hitter as a catcher, he is slashing .322/.417/.598 with a .276 ISO and six home runs in 108 plate appearances this year. Max Muncy has hit 12 home runs but is slashing .200/.353/.508 this year. Muncy’s power and on-base skills keep him well above average for run creation, he is sitting 34% above the field for runs in 150 opportunities. JD Martinez provides cheap power at $4,600/$3,200, he has a 14.7% barrel rate and 50% hard-hit rate this season with a .283 ISO and five home runs in 110 chances. James Outman has eight home runs and a .281 ISO while creating runs 48% better than average this season. The lefty outfielder has an 8.64 in our home run model. Miguel Vargas is cheap at second base with four home runs in the bag already this year in 148 tries. Vargas has a .202 ISO and 110 WRC+ and checks in for just $2,700/$2,800 at second base, but his contact profile is limited at just a 7.1% barrel rate and 31.6% hard hits. Jason Heyward has an 11.3% barrel rate and 52.8% hard-hit percentage over 83 plate appearances with a .250 ISO and 120 WRC+ in an unexpectedly good start to his curated appearances. Miguel Rojas is the only below-average run creator in the projected lineup with a 39 WRC+ in his 69 plate appearances this season.
Play: Pablo Lopez, Twins bats/stacks as a mid-range option, Dodgers bats/stacks in small doses
Update Notes: the Twins lineup was confirmed as expected
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