Saturday night’s six-game MLB DFS slate takes an interesting shape on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The board on both sites has a number of useful pitching options at a broad range of prices, and there are several excellent spots for power, ranging from the star-laden to the obvious to the potentially more sneaky. A slate with these components makes for excellent tournament options and warrants a broad spread of lineup shares with diverse combinations. Focusing on not only the individual player ownership and stack ownership in a full portfolio of lineups but also the lineup-to-lineup combination differentiations is critical for the purposes of reaching a truly diverse set of entries. A more concentrated approach to a few of the very best starters while mixing in a favored value option or two is the recommended approach on the mound for a slate of this nature, there are plenty of options at the top of the board tonight.
Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.
MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Strategy Overview – 5/13/23
Pittsburgh Pirates (+158/3.72) @ Baltimore Orioles (-172/4.88)
The Pirates are looking like an interesting stack despite a low implied team total in the first game on deck in Baltimore tonight. Pittsburgh is sitting at just a 3.78-run implied team total against righty Tyler Wells, the mark is one of the lowest on the slate and it falls multiple runs below the teams in Coors Field, this is very much a buyer-beware situation. The Pirates are interesting for the potential power that they are showing, with mid-level ratings across the board in our home run model against Wells tonight. The starter costs $8,100/$8,700 and he is on the board as a pitching option as well, he lands in a playable position in the middle of our pitching projections and has a 20.7% strikeout rate over 40 innings in six starts this season. Wells has pitched to a 3.15 ERA and he has been very good at limiting opportunities with just a 4.7% walk rate and a microscopic 0.78 WHIP, but he has a 4.53 xFIP that betrays those qualities somewhat. The righty has allowed a 9.9% barrel rate with a 40.5% hard-hit rate for the season and opposing hitters have managed a 5.33% home run rate on 90.2 mph of average exit velocity against him this season. Wells gave up a fair amount of power in each of the last two seasons also, he had a 3.78% home run rate in 103.2 innings and 23 starts last year and a 4.02% mark in 57 relief innings in 2021. The Pirates lineup is not great but there are several interesting hitters at a variety of levels of current-year performance, some of whom we are taking on faith. As we featured yesterday, leadoff man Ke’Bryan Hayes should be a better hitter than he is. Hayes has a 47.1% hard-hit rate for the season and he strikes out at just a 13.5% clip, yet somehow he has managed to slash just .241/.308/.355 with a .113 ISO while creating runs 18% worse than average in his 156 opportunities this season. Hayes was a .244/.314/.345 hitter with a .101 ISO and 88 WRC+ in a full 560 plate appearances last year, with very similar contact numbers sitting at 3.9% barrels and a 46.8% hard-hit rate but a better batting average on balls in play at .307, this year Hayes’ BABIP sits at just .275, which is a big part of the problem for the unfortunate leadoff man. At just $4,300/$2,800 Hayes can be played for his 5.43 home run mark in our model and for correlation with better bats that follow. Bryan Reynolds will hit from the left side of the plate, avoiding the bad side of the outfield for home runs in the process. Reynolds has been stuck at five home runs since April 7th, but he has a .218 ISO and has created runs 24% better than average so far this season. The switch-hitter has a 16.1% barrel rate and a 53.4% mark for hard hits, he is terrific for $5,800/$3,600 in stacks and as a one-off. Reynolds is second on the team with a 9.20 in our home run model tonight. Andrew McCutchen costs just $4,300/$3,300 in the outfield, he is slashing .248/.362/.478 with a .230 ISO and seven home runs. The veteran has added four stolen bases to his MLB DFS scoring tally and has created runs 26% better than average in a nice return to his old stomping grounds. Carlos Santana will also take his plate appearances from the left side to start the game, the switch-hitting first baseman costs just $3,400/$2,900 and has an 8.19 in our home run model despite hitting just two so far this season. Santana hit 19 home runs in each of the last two seasons, he has mid-range power at this point in his career but peaked at 34 twice and has seven seasons with 20 or more and a third with 19, with 280 for his career. 208 of those 280 home runs have come against righties hitting as a lefty, which will be tonight’s split. Left-handed Jack Suwinski has a team-leading 9.49 in our home run model, he has hit seven so far this season in just 118 plate appearances and is slashing .237/.356/.505 with a .268 ISO while creating runs 32% better than average. Suwinski is an underrated hitter who appears on the correct side of splits for this matchup and this ballpark, his 19.7% barrel rate and 47.5% hard-hit rate for the season should play well for just $3,900/$3,000. Connor Joe lands sixth in the projected lineup, he has five home runs with a .282 ISO in 127 plate appearances and has also made sturdy contact with a 12% barrel rate and 48% hard-hit rate this year. Joe is slashing .273/.370/.555 and has been a nice surprise for the Pirates, but he is still cheap at $4,200/$3,000 with eligibility at first base and in the outfield. Tucupita Marcano is projected to hit seventh, he has one home run but a .137 ISO and 95 WRC+ in 60 opportunities this year. Ji-Hwan Bae has stolen 14 bases but is 21% below average in creating runs and has just a 2.6% barrel rate and a 28.9% hard-hit rate this year, and Austin Hedges rounds out the lineup as a cheap catcher with a limited upside. Hedges hit seven home runs while slashing .163/.241/.248 with a .085 ISO in 338 plate appearances last year.
The Orioles are facing Roansy Contreras who checks in at just $7,000/$8,100 after scuffling through the first part of the season. In seven starts and 38 innings pitched, the righty has a 4.74 ERA and a 5.08 xFIP with a 1.55 WHIP and just an 18.7% strikeout rate. The dip from last year’s 21.1% strikeout rate is directly tied to a dip from 12.7% swinging strikes to just 10.9% with a CSW% dropping from 29.8% to 28.8%. Contreras has been somewhat lucky to keep home runs to just 1.20% so far this year, he has allowed a seven percent barrel rate with a 14.7-degree average launch angle and 89.3 mph of average exit velocity, and 38.3% hard hits. Last season, Contreras allowed an 11% barrel rate with a 45.9% hard-hit and 90.1 mph of exit velocity, which amounted to a 3.19% home run rate. Contreras has had three bad outings this season that have marred his overall line in the small sample, his three starts from mid-to-late April were all very good and this pitcher has upside, but the matchup is not ideal. At his prices and what will probably be low popularity, Contreras is worth tournament dart throws, particularly on the two-pitcher site. Baltimore hitters can be played back the other way of course, the lineup is easily good enough to keep up with this pitcher and they have interesting hitters at good prices. Cedric Mullins has five home runs in 161 plate appearances this season and has stolen 12 bases while creating runs 36% better than average. For just $5,000/$3,600 Mullins is a great way to kick off a stack, and he is actually the Orioles’ most expensive player on DraftKings and second-most expensive behind Jorge Mateo on FanDuel. Mateo is expected to hit down the lineup and he can be utilized effectively as a wraparound either as a pivot from or in conjunction with Mullins. Adley Rutschman costs just $4,800 where catchers are required and $3,000 where they are not, he is in play on both sites. The backstop is slashing .281/.407/.432 while creating runs 38% better than average with five home runs on the board this year. Anthony Santander is also cheap, the switch-hitter is up to five home runs and a .201 ISO with a 117 WRC+ after starting out slowly. The outfielder has a 10.4% barrel rate and a team-leading 53.1% hard-hit percentage over 152 plate appearances and belongs in lineups at a $4,100/$3,000 price tag. Ryan Mountcastle has a massive 16.7% barrel rate and a 48.4% hard-hit rate with eight home runs and a .224 ISO this season, but he has produced in bunches and has tended to cool somewhat over extended stretches. Part of this has been from bad luck on balls in play, another part is due to his lowly 4.1% walk rate, which leads to just a .288 on-base percentage. Mountcastle is a very dangerous hitter when he connects, he has an 8.00 in our home run model, slotting in behind only Santander on the Orioles tonight. Adam Frazier lands ahead of Austin Hays in the projected lineup, but Hays is the better hitter between the two. Frazier has a 95 WRC+ in 125 plate appearances this year and had just an 81 last year, he is miscast in the heart of the lineup, but he is cheap at second base or in the outfield on DraftKings for $2,700 and costs the same at just second base on the blue site. Hays is slashing .303/.349/.496 with a .193 ISO and 133 WRC+ in 129 plate appearances. The outfielder has a 15.1% barrel rate and 45.3% hard-hit percentage for the season, he is at a very fair $4,200/$2,900 tonight. Gunnar Henderson is slashing .170/.341/.310 with a .140 ISO and 91 WRC+ over 126 plate appearances, which is not where the top prospect hoped to be after the first month and change of his MLB career. Henderson hits from the left side and is an easily affordable $3,400/$2,700 option at third base on DraftKings and adding shortstop on FanDuel. Jorge Mateo is slashing .271/.316/.495 with six home runs and 12 stolen bases, he costs $5,000/$3,700 at shortstop and has been a dynamite option all season long from anywhere in the lineup. Kyle Stowers is another left-handed bat in the bottom third of the lineup, he costs just $2,000/$2,100 with the idea of power. Stowers hit three home runs in 98 plate appearances last season.
Play: Pirates bats/stacks, Roansy Contreras, Orioles bats/stacks, Tyler Wells isn’t wrong but he should be cheaper
Update Notes: the confirmed Pirates lineup is without Andrew McCutchen, with Connor Joe sliding into the third spot in the lineup between Reynolds and Santana, Miguel Andujar and Chris Owings are hitting sixth and eighth, Owings replaces Marcano and Jason Delay is in for Hedges. Andujar fills in the outfield role for $2,900/$2,200 with added third base eligibility on FanDuel. The quad-A utility man had one interesting season long ago for the Yankees, he has always been capable of driving the ball and has two home runs in 30 plate appearances this season, cheap power is always nice to find but expectations should be low, Andujar has a 6.85 in the home run model. Owings is a limited infielder, Delay has a home run and is slashing .360/.411/.540 in 57 plate appearances this year. The Orioles lineup was confirmed mostly as expected but Ryan O’Hearn slots in ninth instead of Stowers. O’Hearn was last semi-relevant in 2021 with 254 plate appearances and nine home runs, he has not done much with 25 opportunities so far this year.
Kansas City Royals (+139/4.09) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-151/5.01)
The Royals’ frisky lineup is pulling in just a 4.07-run implied total against limited righty Adrian Houser tonight. The veteran hurler is making just his second start of the season after missing all of April and early May with a groin injury. Houser threw 4.2 innings in his first appearance last week, facing 21 Giants in San Francisco and allowing two earned runs on seven hits while striking out five. In 21 starts last year, Houser had just a 15.2% strikeout rate while pitching to a 4.73 ERA and 4.64 xFIP, he had a 17.5% mark for strikeouts with a 4.31 xFIP in 26 starts and 142.1 innings the season before, there is not a lot to love for MLB DFS scoring upside, Houser checks in at $6,600/$8,400, even at the bargain DraftKings price it is difficult to find reasons to justify playing him. The Royals implied total just feels low, but they don’t build gigantic casino hotels in Vegas by being wrong. Kansas City has several interesting hitters in the lineup, Bobby Witt Jr. remains pricey despite lackluster production because the sites, at least in this one specific case, know a star when they see one. Witt hit 20 home runs and stole 30 bases in 2022, this season he has 12 steals and six longballs but is slashing just .222/.263/.414 with a WRC+ of 80. The shortstop costs $5,300/$3,600 and may not be as popular as he deserves to be on this slate. Vinnie Pasquantino is slashing .284/.371/.514 with a .230 ISO, seven home runs, and a 140 WRC+ in 171 plate appearances while generating a 48.5% hard-hit rate and striking out just 10.5% of the time. The first baseman is an underrated hitter who has been smoking the ball with regularity, he belongs in more lineups at $4,000/$3,300. Sal Perez has been scorching and is up to .289/.338/.511 with a .222 ISO, seven home runs, and a 127 WRC+ in 148 opportunities. For just $4,500 where the position is needed, Perez is a fantastic catcher option who is not going to be popular enough for this matchup. MJ Melendez has a 13.8% barrel rate with a 56.3% hard-hit rate this season, but that has amounted to just four home runs in 151 plate appearances. Melendez is striking out at a 31.8% clip and slashing just .209/.291/.366 while creating runs 20% below average, but the contact profile is real and the ball travels when he connects. Melendez has lost his catcher eligibility on DraftKings, he is a $3,800 outfielder, he retains catcher eligibility, and also slots into the outfield on FanDuel for just $2,800. Edward Olivares costs $3,100/$2,800 in the outfield, he is slashing .239/.306/.407 with three home runs and three steals in 124 plate appearances. Nick Pratto is one of our favored hitters from later in this lineup. The lefty first-round pick has two home runs in 61 plate appearances while slashing .340/.426/.509 with a 162 WRC+ in the tiny sample. Maikel Garcia, Michael Massey, and Jackie Bradley Jr. round out the projected lineup for the Royals, Massey is probably the most playable but none of the trio has been good.
The Brewers look like a strong option for stacking tonight due to a matchup against Zack Greinke, who allows a fair amount of power and premium contact. The veteran righty has been getting by with a limited arsenal for the past few seasons, he has a 5.18 ERA this year with a 4.30 xFIP in 41.2 innings and eight starts, last season he had a 3.68 ERA and 4.54 xFIP in 137 innings and 26 starts. Greinke rarely strikes hitters out, he has just a 15.3% strikeout rate this year and was worse with just a 12.5% mark last season, but he also rarely walks hitters or gets himself into major jams, he has a four percent walk rate so far in 2023 and was at just 4.6% last year. Greinke is targetable for contact, however, and the Brewers lineup has several hitters who have been putting bat-on-ball well this season. So far in 2023, Greinke has allowed a 7.7% barrel rate with a 40.8% hard-hit and 90.8 mph of average exit velocity, amounting to a 4.55% home run rate. Last season he limited power well, with just a 2.39% home run rate but was still close to 40% hard hits, the year before he was better for contact but allowed a higher home run rate in a larger sample. For just $5,500/$6,800 Greinke has shown that he can actually provide enough value to be in play, but the expectation of a ceiling score or slate-winning upside from the pitcher is unrealistic. The Brewers’ lineup is imperfect, their star player can’t get out of his own way and hits the ball on the ground far too frequently, and they have a weak bottom third, but there are sturdy bats through the middle and some interesting power hitters. Christian Yelich has just a 6.7% barrel rate but a 56.7% hard-hit rate so far this year, resulting in four home runs with just a .113 ISO. Yelich is slashing .248/.333/.362 with a 93 WRC+ over his 159 plate appearances this year, with 53.8% of his batted balls on the ground. The outfielder hit 36 home runs in 2018 and 44 in 2019 with a high of just 14 since then, but in an “any given slate” sense, he has upside in this matchup and is pulling in a 7.02 in our home run model. Jesse Winker is mired in a deep slump over 90 plate appearances. The outfielder was expected to be a mostly full-time player, perhaps sitting against the most premium lefties, but he has fallen into a platoon situation and has been very limited. Winker has zero home runs and is slashing .230/.356/.270 with a .041 ISO. His 84 WRC+ would be far lower if he wasn’t walking at a 13.3% clip but Winker’s contact profile has been weak this season as well, he has just a 3.6% barrel rate and 35.7% hard-hit for the year. Willy Adames has a 13.3% barrel rate but has somehow managed just a 31.4% hard-hit for the season. The shortstop has hit seven home runs but he has slipped below average to just 99 WRC+ and he has a .225/.321/.406 triple-slash. Adames hit 31 home runs last year and 25 the year before, he is a premium power bat at a key position and he costs just $4,300/$3,000. First baseman Rowdy Tellez leads the Brewers with 10 home runs and a .293 ISO, he is the team’s key power hitter and he hits from the left side against the weak righty tonight. Tellez has a team-leading 10.68 home run rate in our model tonight, he looks like a sturdy power bet. Brian Anderson has five home runs to start his season, but he has been stuck at that mark for a while now. Anderson still has an 11.1% barrel rate but, like Adames, his hard-hit rate is just at 30% for the year in 148 plate appearances. At just $3,400/$2,800 with eligibility at third base and in the outfield on both sites, Anderson is easily playable in a good spot, he still has a 102 WRC+ and is pulling in a 5.47 in our home run model. Victor Caratini got us a cheap low-owned home run the last time he was mentioned in this space, the catcher costs just $2,500 on both sites and has a 4.23 in our home run model. Caratini has hit two homers in 48 plate appearances and has a .150 ISO with a 144 WRC+ in the small sample, he hit nine home runs in 314 plate appearances last season and is a somewhat interesting source of power at his position on this slate. Brice Turang has a 4.3% barrel rate and a 29% hard-hit mark in 108 plate appearances this year, with two home runs and a .090 ISO, he is not a major power threat. Tyrone Taylor does have power upside, he is sitting at 6.30 in our home run model and has hit one longball with a .091 ISO this year, but he has made only 34 plate appearances. In 405 opportunities last season, the outfielder managed 17 home runs, there is potential for a cheap low-owned home run from late in the lineup, Taylor costs just $2,200/$2,500. Joey Weimer has three home runs this season with a 7.2% barrel rate and 37.3% hard-hit in 124 plate appearances, he has not been much for MLB DFS scoring upside.
Play: Brewers bats/stacks, Royals bats/stacks in slightly smaller doses
Update Notes: the Royals lineup has Matt Duffy hitting sixth with Olivares out of the lineup and Pratto sliding up to fifth, which gives the hitter we already liked a minor bump. Duffy is a utility man with a decent bat but a better hit tool than power, he has one home run and is slashing .353/.393/.471 this year but was a .250/.308/.311 hitter with just two home runs in 247 tries last year. Nate Eaton hits eighth with Maikel Garcia also out of the lineup, Eaton has a -91 WRC+ in his 36 opportunities so far this year, he has minor speed but not much of a bat. Caratini is out of the lineup with William Contreras not getting a day off, which is a bump to the overall quality of the Brewers’ already good lineup. Contreras costs $3,900/$2,800 and is slashing .271/.366/.421 with three home runs in 123 plate appearances. Owen Miller is hitting eighth between Turang and Weimer, replacing Tyrone Taylor with a lower-end bat, though Miller is slashing .323/.348/.435 with a 113 WRC+ in 66 opportunities this year.
Houston Astros (+113/4.11) @ Chicago White Sox (-122/4.48)
Chicago starter Dylan Cease has not been good in his last several trips to the mound. In his last outing, Cease made it through just five innings and was charged with seven earned runs on nine hits while striking out six Royals. He struck out six against the Twins but allowed four runs on five hits the outing before that and was tattooed for nine hits and six runs by the Rays prior to that. For the season, the righty has a 5.58 ERA and 4.34 xFIP in 40.1 innings and eight starts and his strikeout rate has plummeted from 30.4% last year and 31.9% the year before to just 25.9%. Cease still induces a 12.1% swinging-strike rate but that is down from a 15% rate last year and his CSW% has dropped from 29.9% to just 26.5%. Cease appears to have lost more than a mile-per-hour of velocity on his four-seamer and slider, and he has lost spin on both his slider and his curveball, reducing the effectiveness of each pitch notably. His slider has dropped from a 43.3% whiff rate to a 38.8% mark and the curveball has fallen off the table, dropping from 28.3% to 21.2% whiffs and batters have hit both pitches far harder than last year with slugging and expected slugging numbers from this season aligning as a single story. Cease has gone from a premium option on the mound to something of a question mark, the price is way down for his struggles, but at $8,800/$9,200 he is not exactly cheap against an Astros lineup loaded with good hitters. This is a tough spot, Cease seems likely to be lower-owned than his track record would indicate that he should be, but the obvious current-form struggles are already beginning to shine through in our pitching model, and he falls below several other starters who have much better matchups tonight. Cease is not out of play, if the public is low on him it would make good tournament sense to push a few additional chips and get over the field on the former strikeout artist, but expectations should be well-checked. The Astros side is similar, they can absolutely be played against the struggling righty, but if the good version of Cease emerges he could keep them down and he has enough strikeout acumen, even in this form, to punch holes in a rally by sitting down hitters. Mauricio Dubon is projected to lead off, he is slashing .293/.317/.368 but has created runs 10% below average in his 139 plate appearances while filling in for Jose Altuve. Dubon costs just $3,200/$2,700 and is primarily a correlated scoring play. Alex Bregman is slashing just .201/.324/.326 with a .125 ISO over 170 plate appearances. The third baseman has a 5.5% barrel rate and 34.6% hard-hit percentage this year, though those marks were not much higher at just 7.3% and 37.6% when he hit 23 home runs with a .195 ISO in 656 opportunities last season. Bregman is still good at putting the ball in play and has stayed involved by drawing walks, he has a 10% strikeout rate with a 14.7% walk rate and has always been a discerning hitter with a great eye. With the idea that some of his former production should return over time, Bregman is in play for $4,500/$2,800 but the DraftKings price could potentially be a bit lower for the scuffling veteran. Yordan Alvarez costs $6,100/$4,200, which is where a bigger discount for Bregman would come in handy. The superstar slugger is slashing .282/.388/.573 with a .291 ISO and nine home runs this year, and he sports a fantastic 16.3% barrel rate with a 52.3% hard-hit rate over 139 plate appearances. As we have noted previously, those terrific numbers are actually down significantly from last year’s outrageous 21% barrel rate and 59.8% hard-hit rate, if anything Alvarez has underperformed while creating runs 64% better than average so far this year. Kyle Tucker checks in for just $5,200/$3,000 with a 9.6% barrel rate and 44.7% hard-hit percentage. Tucker has six home runs and six stolen bases but his ISO has dipped from .221 last year to just .173 so far this season. The outfielder has still created runs 19% better than average but we expect more from a player who is widely considered a star. Tucker’s output should increase, his contact profile is stable and he is striking out at just a 15.1% clip with a 13.2% walk rate, there is a significant upside for MLB DFS scoring at a fair price from Tucker tonight. Jose Abreu is down to just $2,600/$2,400 at first base, he is still yet to hit a home run since last August. The first baseman is slashing a mere .218/.263/.259 with a .041 ISO while creating runs 56% worse than average in what is no longer a small sample. Abreu slashed .304/.378/.446 with 15 home runs last year, the second-half power outage was noteworthy, but the total disappearance of everything that made Abreu a great hitter was completely unexpected. He has a 4.4% barrel rate and a 35.1% hard-hit rate, both of which are down significantly from his 9.5% and 51.7% from last season. Jeremy Pena is facing a similar problem in his second year as the team’s shortstop, his contact has dipped from a 9.6% barrel rate and 36.2% hard hits to 4.4% and 31.9% in 162 plate appearances this year. Pena has hit six home runs and stolen six bases but his run creation mark has fallen below average to a 97 WRC+ and he does not get on base enough with just a lowly 4.3% walk rate. Corey Julks, Jake Meyers, and Martin Maldonado round out the projected Astros lineup. Julks has hit a pair of home runs and stolen five bases in 103 plate appearances, the other two each have two home runs as well and are infrequently capable of bending a slate with low-owned output.
Chicago is carrying a mid-level 4.48-run implied team total in a matchup against righty Brandon Bielak who has made one start and had a prior appearance out of the bullpen. Bielak’s start against the Mariners last week lasted 4.2 innings and he faced 24 hitters, allowing two earned runs on 10 hits with a home run and two walks but no strikeouts. Bielak struck out six Giants hitters while giving up a home run and allowing two earned runs on two hits in four relief innings in his first outing. Bielak projects as a lower-end starter, he is an OK prospect, but he does not sport a premium arsenal of power pitches like some of the young starters that we have seen and he has never fully stuck at the Major League level. Last season, Bielak threw just 12.1 innings in the Show and 88.2 in AAA, the year before he threw 50 Major League innings in 28 appearances out of the bullpen but made just two starts. Overall, the righty has a 5.01 xFIP and 5.07 ERA in 103 innings with a 19.5% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate in all roles. This seems like a targetable pitcher for White Sox bats on this slate. Tim Anderson leads off and fills shortstop with a capable bat for just $5,100/$2,900, his FanDuel price is notably inexpensive. Anderson missed a chunk of the season but he is also off to a slow start over 93 plate appearances, he is slashing just .241/.290/.299 with a .057 ISO and 65 WRC+ so far this year. Anderson slashed .301/.339/.395 with a 110 WRC+ and hit six home runs with 13 stolen bases in 351 opportunities last year and slashed .309/.338/.469 with a 120 WRC+ while hitting 17 home runs and stealing 18 bases in 2021. Andrew Benintendi is slashing .255/.309/.312 with a .057 ISO and 69 WRC+ over 152 plate appearances this year. The outfielder has hit for even less power than usual, he has no home runs and has failed to drive the ball with any regularity. Last season, Benintendi hit just five home runs in 521 plate appearances, but he managed a 38.5% hard-hit rate with a 5.1% barrel rate while slashing .304/.373/.399 and creating runs 22% better than average, this year his barrels have dropped to 2.6% and his hard-hit rate is 26.5%. Andrew Vaughn is cheaper than he should be at first base for just $3,600/$3,000. Vaughn has hit four home runs and has a .174 ISO with a 113 WRC+ while making steady contact. While it has not translated to significant home run output yet, his 9.4% barrel rate and 46.2% hard-hit mark are both encouraging, and Vaughn has been productive for the price and typical popularity. Yoan Moncada is back at third base for Chicago after missing a large portion of the season. Moncada has made 44 plate appearances and he has two home runs with a 119 WRC+ while landing at an affordable price. Though he has never ascended to star status or fulfilled the lofty expectations from when he was signed after defecting from Cuba, Moncada has been a productive player in years past. The third baseman hit 12 home runs but had a low-end season over 433 plate appearances last year, but in 2021 he slashed .263/.375/.412 with 14 home runs while creating runs 22% better than average. Moncada is young for being in his seventh full season, he will turn 28 at the end of the month, there is still a bit of room for growth but this should be his prime. Luis Robert Jr. is another Cuban National Team star, he is slashing .262/.327/.517 with a .255 ISO and nine home runs this year in a minor early breakout, despite a few bumps in the road regarding his hustle. Robert is cheap for that level of production and potential, he costs just $4,500/$3,200 in the outfield and makes a good buy on both sites. Gavin Sheets is inexpensive at $2,600/$2,500, he is an outfielder on DraftKings and adds first base eligibility on the blue site. Sheets has four home runs in 90 plate appearances this year while posting a .165 ISO and a 109 WRC+. For that production and the typically low ownership, Sheets is a compelling tournament piece, he comes with an 8.72 in our home run model and a moderately strong buy recommendation in White Sox stacks. Seby Zavala, Elvis Andrus, and Adam Haseley round out the projected lineup. Haseley remains the interesting hitter in that bunch, Andrus has made 151 plate appearances and has created runs 49% worse than average with one home run and five steals and we thank him for proving our ongoing point about his quality at the plate. Zavala is a cheap catcher who has two home runs this year in 59 plate appearances but hit just two in 205 last year. Haseley has a decent hit tool but has never fully stuck at the Major League level, he comes very cheap at the bottom of the lineup for $2,200/$2,100 and is slashing .286/.355/.357 with a 103 WRC over 31 early plate appearances this year.
Play: White Sox bats/stacks, Astros bats/stacks, Dylan Cease
Update Notes: the confirmed Astros lineup runs as expected until the eighth spot, where Cesar Salazar replaces Maldonado at catcher, Salazar has made eight plate appearances in his career and costs the minimum in a good lineup at catcher. The 27-year-old backstop has a decent hit tool and minor power. The White Sox lineup includes catcher Carlos Perez in the ninth spot with Zavala also in the lineup hitting eighth, Hanser Alberto hits seventh and is another flat spot in the lineup despite three home runs and a .255 in 54 early plate appearances. 1-6 remains intact for the White Sox.
San Diego Padres (+130/3.94) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-141/4.65)
The Padres are in Los Angeles to face the Dodgers once again, this time with Julio Urias on the bump for the home team. Urias is an effective lefty flyball pitcher who typically lands a touch above league average across the board, but who is by no means unhittable. The southpaw has a 25.9% strikeout rate with just a 4.9% walk rate in his 45.1 innings over eight starts this season, pitching to a 3.77 ERA and a 3.63 xFIP in a good start to the year. Urias has induced an 11.4% swinging-strike rate and has a 29.9% CSW%, all of his primary statistics align well with years past as well. In 2022, the lefty made 31 starts and threw 175 innings with a 2.16 ERA, a 3.81 xFIP, and a 24.1% strikeout rate, but he did yield a 3.34% home run rate despite limiting barrels to 6.7% and hard-hits to a terrific 30.2%. Urias does not give up much premium contact, but his mistakes tend to travel, this season he has allowed a higher level of hard-hit balls, sitting at 36.2% with a barrel rate that, accordingly, climbs as well to 8.7%, leading to a 4.32% home run rate so far. Urias is a good pitcher but he will have to navigate the top of the Padres lineup three times while ducking the long ball from some premium right-handed home run hitters. Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the slate and nearly doubles the magic number for home run upside today. Tatis has light tower power against anyone, but he is pulling a particularly high mark in this matchup. The superstar has five home runs and is slashing .290/.322/.512 with a .221 ISO over his first 90 plate appearances. Tatis missed all of last season first with an injury then for a suspension, but he is outrageously talented. In 2021 he hit 42 home runs with a .328 ISO and added 25 stolen bases of MLB DFS excellence just because he could. Manny Machado hits from the right side and also has tremendous power when all is going well. So far this season, Machado has managed five home runs but he has just a .149 ISO and has been below average for run creation – and far below his typical standards – with a WRC+ stuck at just 87. Machado has a 40% hard-hit rate with a seven percent barrel rate in his 160 plate appearances, but last year that was a 9.8% barrel rate and 49% hard-hit that led to a .234 ISO and 32 home runs. Machado will bounce back as the season rolls along, the extended slump has his price reduced to just $5,000/$3,000, which is a plus for gamers looking to stack Padres hitters tonight. Juan Soto has a career .260/.371/.449 triple-slash with a .188 ISO and 121 WRC+ against same-handed pitching, he loses quality from his excellent overall numbers but still retains a fair amount of upside against fellow lefties and should not be skipped for matchup reasons. Soto has six home runs with a .219 ISO so far this year, he has a terrific 16% barrel rate and 59% hard-hit rate for the season as well, indicating that there is more MLB DFS scoring to come. Xander Bogaerts is slated to hit cleanup with Nelson Cruz following him in the fifth spot against a lefty starter. Bogaerts is slashing .266/.361/.434 and has six home runs on the season, but has cooled somewhat after carrying the team early. The shortstop costs just $4,600/$3,100, which is too cheap even for a cooled version of this player, Bogaerts belongs in Padres stacks. Cruz has hit three home runs this season and has a .185 ISO with a 101 WRC+ in 84 curated plate appearances. The Padres are deploying the aged power hitter in spots in which he is most likely to succeed and they have seen good results so far, Cruz has a 10.7% barrel rate and 48.2% hard-hit rate for the season, primarily hitting against lefties. Cruz has a 9.24 in our home run model, outpacing Bogaert’s 8.61 mark, but falling behind the double-digit numbers carried by the stars above them in the lineup. Jake Cronenworth dips further in power expectations with a 6.68, he has three home runs and a .160 ISO over 158 plate appearances, which is slightly off the expected pace for a hitter who hit 17 home runs in 684 opportunities last year. Ha-Seong Kim has three home runs and a .129 ISO while creating runs eight percent below average this year, he has just a 4.8% barrel rate and a 19% hard-hit rate this year and has not been much of a power option or a run creator. Austin Nola and Adam Engel wind up the projected Padres batting order. Nola has one home run in 93 plate appearances, he had four in 397 last year so expectations are low. Engel hit two home runs in 260 tries last year but did steal 12 bases.
Right-handed Padres ace Joe Musgrove takes the mound in a very difficult matchup for just $7,800/$9,000 tonight. Musgrove is cheap on FanDuel, his DraftKings price is a major bargain, quality of opponent aside. The righty has not been great over three starts so far in 2023 after missing most of Spring Training and the early part of the year with a broken toe suffered in a weight room accident. Musgrove has a 23.3% strikeout rate and a 6.7% walk rate with a 6.75 ERA so far this year, but his 4.23 xFIP is a relief out of the gate and his swinging-strike rate is actually up from 11% to 12.6% in the small sample, the current rate would be in line with his 2021 output in a year that saw him strike out 27.1% in 181.1 innings. The righty faced these Dodgers in his last start on the 7th, he threw five clean innings allowing just an unearned run on two hits while striking out five, but he did walk an uncharacteristic three hitters. Musgrove was truly bad in his second start of the year, he allowed three home runs and struck out only three Giants hitters in just 3.1 innings, his first start lasted five innings and he was charged with three runs on seven hits, but he struck out six and walked zero. The righty could be under-appreciated again in this spot, he is a high-end starter who falls short of the absolute cream of the crop across the league, but easily fits into the second tier of good pitchers, with the upside to be great on any given night. At a cheap price, this is a pitcher who is well worth taking shots on in MLB DFS tournaments, even with the Dodgers on the other side of the game. Musgrove will be facing a lineup that can be rostered in hedge shares at the very least. Mookie Betts leads off, he is slashing .248/.352/.489 with a .241 ISO while creating runs 30% better than average. The star costs just $3,500 and has eligibility at second base and in the outfield on FanDuel, he is a $5,400 outfielder on DraftKings. Freddie Freeman has a 10.3% barrel rate and 45.2% hard-hit mark for the season while slashing .297/.369.510 with a .213 ISO and 138 WRC+. Freeman strikes out at just a 17.6% clip so far this year, Betts is at 19.4% and catcher Will Smith has struck out in just 5.8% of his plate appearances so far, which could challenge Musgrove. Freeman has hit seven home runs and stolen five bases, he is a star by any measure except price, $5,000/$3,600 is too low for this first baseman. Smith is an excellent catcher in any matchup, he has six home runs and is slashing .325/.423/.614 in 104 plate appearances this year. Max Muncy has 12 home runs but a .202/.357/.526 triple-slash, which does not stop him from posting a 137 WRC+. Muncy has a massive 20.3% barrel rate and a 43.2% hard-hit for the season but he is also affordable at $5,100 on DraftKings, he costs $4,100 on FanDuel which feels more appropriate. JD Martinez is having a nice season when he is in the lineup, over 102 plate appearances he has four home runs with a .272 ISO and 119 WRC+ and has struck the ball very well. Martinez has a 14.5% barrel rate and 48.4% hard-hit rate for the season, for now, he has quieted any concerns about power outages. James Outman has mashed with a 13.6% barrel rate and 44.4% hard-hit rate in his 141 opportunities this year, turning premium contact into eight early home runs and a .295 ISO. Outman is yet another hitter in the projected lineup who has been well above average for run creation at a 156 WRC+ so far this year, but he strikes out at an aggressive 32.4% rate behind Martinez’s 31.4% and Muncy’s 28.7% in what could be an easy inning for Musgrove. Miguel Vargas is a threat with four home runs and a sneaky .203 ISO in his 141 opportunities, though he is slashing just .212/.329/.415. Jason Heyward has raked early in the year and the Dodgers have utilized him higher in the lineup in spots, he has a 12% barrel rate with 56% hard hits in 79 plate appearances, hitting four home runs and creating runs 25% better than average to this point. Miguel Rojas is slashing just .183/.246/.200 with a .017 ISO in 65 plate appearances as the soft spot in the lineup.
Play: Four Corners: Padres bats/stacks, Joe Musgrove, Dodgers bats/stacks, Julio Urias in descending order of share size
Update Notes: the Padres lineup is as expected. the Dodgers lineup includes David Peralta hitting ninth with Rojas on the bench, but is otherwise as expected. Peralta adds a good veteran bat to the equation,o though he has mostly scuffled in 88 opportunities this year, slashing just .205/.239/.301 with a 47 WRC+
San Francisco Giants (+156/3.29) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-170/4.30)
The Giants are facing perhaps the slate’s toughest starter in righty Zac Gallen and they have just a 3.55-run implied team total in the matchup in the desert tonight. Gallen has been elite to start the season. The righty has a 33.9% strikeout rate over eight starts and 49.2 innings and has pitched to a 2.36 ERA with a nearly identical 2.33 xFIP. His sparkling 3.2% walk rate has helped him to just a 0.85 WHIP and he has been terrific in inducing a 12.9% swinging-strike rate with a 31.5% CSW% while limiting home runs to just 1.06%. Gallen has made major strides in each of the last few seasons, but this big a leap was not exactly expected, he has been tremendous so far and is worth every bit of his $10,500/$11,500 salary against a free-swinging Giants lineup. San Francisco is typically a team that we like in this space, they match up well with pitchers of both hands and hit for steady power while rarely coming in at high prices or much popularity. In a matchup like this, a lot of that might just go out the window for MLB DFS purposes. Gallen seems like the far stronger side, but to proffer an argument, he does not project all that much higher in a raw fantasy points sense than several starters who are at far lower prices tonight, and he will probably be the most popular pitcher on both sites. Simply choosing another option gains salary in every instance, if it also gains leverage over the field while allowing the ability to create lineup combinations that cannot be reached by lineups that include him, so much the better. That said, Gallen remains our preferred side of this particular coin. When rostering Giants hitters, the focus should be on the top-6 in the projected lineup. LaMonte Wade Jr. is too cheap at $3,400/$2,900 for a hitter who has a 13.4% barrel rate and seven home runs in 137 plate appearances. Wade struggles badly and loses most of his quality while dropping to ninth in the lineup against lefties, which must be what drives some of the discount in his price, against righties he is a leadoff hitter with power for a very low dollar amount. Thairo Estrada has been very good since the start of last season, but this year’s production has been at another level. The infielder is slashing .317/.369/.490 while creating runs 38% better than average with six home runs and 11 stolen bases. Estrada costs just $5,600/$3,500 and fits in at both second base and shortstop on both sites. JD Davis has seven home runs and is slashing .308/.379/.513 with a .205 ISO while creating runs 45% better than average over 132 plate appearances in a nice “told ya so” to most of baseball, yet he costs just $3,900/$2,900 at third base tonight. Joc Pederson is a lefty power hitter who leads the team in our home run model at 7.72. Pederson has five home runs and a .259 ISO in 97 opportunities this season, he is always in play against a righty, but Gallen also has a good chance of sitting him down a few times via the strikeout. Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto both missed significant time last year, Haniger made 247 plate appearances while Conforto was out the entire season, but both players have been very good options in the past and they are cheap at $3,700/$2,800 and $3,200/$2,800. Haniger has a pair of home runs in 55 plate appearances since returning, Conforto has been here most of the season and has six home runs but has otherwise struggled in his 132 opportunities. Casey Schmitt has two home runs in 16 plate appearances since his callup, he slots in at shortstop for $2,900 on DraftKings and makes for a $3,200 third baseman on FanDuel, but he is probably overmatched here. Brett Wisely and Joey Bart round out the projected lineup as fairly low-end options.
The Diamondbacks are facing Anthony DeSclafani who has been producing his reliably mid-level numbers over seven starts and 45 innings early in 2023. The righty has an 18.8% strikeout rate this year, he was at 22.5% in his last full season in 2021. DeSclafani has a 2.80 ERA and 3.61 xFIP this year, in 2021 it was 3.17 and 3.95. Any MLB DFS scoring potential that DeSclafani provides comes via clean innings, he has limited upside for strikeouts, though he can find them on the right night, but he typically demonstrates good control and command and he has just a 2.3% walk rate with a 0.93 WHIP so far this year. With the lack of free passes on both sides and the new pace-of-play rules, Arizona fans could be in for a very quick game tonight. Diamondbacks hitters are the more appealing side of the matchup at the plate tonight between the two teams, but DeSclafani can be played against them, particularly for $8,400 on DraftKings. The $9,900 FanDuel price is a bit out of line but should keep him unpopular at least. Diamondbacks hitters of note make up much of the top half of the lineup. Josh Rojas is not a household name, but he is a moderately capable producer of MLB DFS points as a correlated scoring option in the leadoff role. Rojas hit nine home runs and stole 23 bases while getting on base at a .349 clip and creating runs eight percent better than average last year, but he has not been great and has created runs just 22% below average in 122 tries this season. Ketel Marte is another infielder of note from atop the Arizona lineup, the second baseman has hit five home runs in 155 plate appearances this season and he has a .212 ISO while creating runs 14% better than average, he is the better play for only $200 more on both sites. Corbin Carroll has a 10.6% barrel rate and 44.7% hard-hit rate with five home runs and 10 stolen bases in his 138 plate appearances this year. The rookie has struck out at a 22.5% clip with an eight percent walk rate while creating runs 28% better than average to this point, he is a strong buy even at $5,500/$3,400. Christian Walker’s price has yet to catch up to his recent production, he has nine home runs and a .250 ISO with a 121 WRC+ over 154 plate appearances but costs just $4,700/$3,500 tonight. Walker started slow but he had a monster season last year with 36 home runs and there is little to worry about in his contact profile. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has five home runs with a .209 ISO on the back of a 48.6% hard-hit rate this season. Gurriel dropped to just five home runs last year after hitting 21 in 2021, but he was otherwise very good, with the power back this season he is a good option at $4,500/$3,200. Pavin Smith has seen 78 plate appearances this year, he has two home runs and has created runs 40% better than average in the small opportunity. Smith is slashing .286/.423/.429 and has a 52.2% hard-hit rate for $3,200/$2,800 with eligibility in the outfield on both sites and first base on FanDuel. Gabriel Moreno is slashing .310/.330/.390 but creating runs six percent below average, he is a quality catcher for $3,100/$2,600. Dominic Fletcher is slashing .457/.486/.629 with a 206 WRC+ in his 39 plate appearances, he has one home run on a 41.9% hard-hit rate in the meaningless sample. Geraldo Perdomo has made 94 plate appearances and sits at .359/.444/.551 for the year with a 170 WRC+ for just $3,800/$3,000 but there is not much to love in his contact profile with just a 1.5% barrel rate and 18.2% hard-hit rate, it would not be surprising to see him cool further after a hot run.
Play: Zac Gallen aggressively, Diamondbacks bats/stacks, minor shares of the Giants side at the plate on the mound if feeling particularly contrarian
Update Notes: The run total in this game has dropped by a half-run since this morning, lowering both team totals in an already low-end game for run expectation in Vegas. The confirmed Arizona lineup has Fletcher hitting sixth with Perdomo-Alek Thomas–Jose Herrera rounding things out. Thomas has a pair of home runs in 116 plate appearances but is slashing .198/.259/.330 with a .132 ISO and a 58 WRC+, Herrera is not much of an MLB DFS option. The Giants are giving Joc Pederson the day off, with Wilmer Flores joining the lineup, Estrada leads off with Flores’ capable but right-handed bat second and Wade third before the rest of the expected batting order.
Philadelphia Phillies (-135/6.23) @ Colorado Rockies (+124/5.41)
A game at Coors Field with Ranger Suarez and Ryan Feltner on the mound means that we are done selling pitchers for the day. Edit: we mistakenly referred to Suarez as an opener in an earlier version, he will be making his first start of the year in a return from injury and a rehab assignment tonight in a regular starter’s role but he is no more of an option than earlier, Feltner is just not very good and should play into the able hands of Phillies hitters. The visitors lead the slate with a massive 6.33-run implied total. Philadelphia’s lineup runs nine deep on most slates and they will be crushingly popular, but deservedly so, in this matchup. The sites have not priced Coors Field games up aggressively so far this year, tonight is no different, Bryson Stott leads off in the projected Philadelphia lineup for just $4,600/$3,200. The infielder has hit two home runs and stolen four bases but his run-creation mark has dipped to 17% below average over 161 plate appearances this year. Stott puts the ball in play regularly, he has an 18% strikeout rate this year but has not walked enough to support the leadoff role fully. Star shortstop Trea Turner has been off to a slow start at just .261/.304/.410 with a .149 ISO and an 89 WRC+ so far this year, but he has four home runs and four stolen bases and the upside for much more production. Turner is cheap at $5,200/$3,300, far too cheap for a Coors Field game, he should be extraordinarily popular in this spot. Bryce Harper should also be a very popular hitter at $5,700/$4,100, he has eligibility at first base on FanDuel in addition to his outfield positioning and has come roaring out of the gate since his return. Harper is slashing .344/.417/.500 with a 152 WRC+, a home run, and a stolen base, as well as a 13% barrel rate in his 36 plate appearances since getting back into the lineup far sooner than anyone expected when he was first injured. Nick Castellanos costs just $4,900/$3,900, because he was not as good as we hoped last year, we guess? Castellanos is slashing .313/.361/.510 with a 135 WRC+ and five home runs this season, with most of the power coming the last couple of weeks. The outfielder is another hitter who should be very popular because he is too cheap on both sites, though the discount is greater on DraftKings. Kyle Schwarber has a 15.48 in our home run model tonight, he looks like a strong bet for power and he has nine home runs in his ledger already this season. Schwarber is slashing .188/.304/.413 with a .225 ISO and a 12.2% barrel rate, he costs $5,100/$3,300 tonight. Alec Bohm slots in at first and third base on both sites for $4,100/$3,300, he is a quality bat who can drive the ball well, he has a 44.7% hard-hit rate, and hit for average while getting on base and creating runs. Bohm is slashing .271/.342/.407 with a 106 WRC+ in 155 opportunities. Brandon Marsh is a good left-handed outfield bat with power from late in the lineup, he has a .262 ISO this season with four home runs in 126 plate appearances while barreling the ball in 10.1% of his batted-ball events with a 49.3% hard-hit rate. Edmundo Sosa has three home runs while slashing .281/.309/.438 with a league-average run creation mark in 96 opportunities and Garrett Stubbs closes out the projected lineup with JT Realmuto out with an injury suffered in last night’s game.
Charlie Blackmon leads off for the Rockies, he should be in this role even with the left-handed opener going tonight. Blackmon has a 104 WRC+ but just a .134 ISO and three home runs in his 152 plate appearances. The veteran outfielder is more of a slap-hitting correlated scoring player at this point, he has just a 6.3% barrel rate with a lowly 29.7% hard-hit rate for the year but he puts everything in play with just a 12.5% strikeout rate and is good at getting on base with an 11.2% walk rate that is way up from last season’s 5.5%. Jurickson Profar has hit five home runs but is creating runs 20% worse than average while blocking more interesting prospect hitters for the Rockies. Kris Bryant is having a good start to his year, over 154 plate appearances he has five home runs while slashing .307/.383/.453 and creating runs 17% better than average. CJ Cron has a 16.3% barrel rate but just six home runs this year, he has a .200 ISO but has created runs 25% worse than average and is slashing just .231/.282/.431. Cron’s price is low for a player with massive power, he costs just $4,800/$3,200 but he has not been great this year, tonight could be a nice get-right opportunity for the first baseman, he has a 13.15 in our home run model to lead the Rockies. Elias Diaz is projected to hit fifth and he makes a good catcher option in home games. Diaz costs just $4,400/$3,100 and has been very productive so far this season with a 119 WRC+ while slashing .330/.385/.468 and striking out at just an 18% clip. Randal Grichuk has a 10.47 in our home run model, the outfielder has hit one home run in his 44 plate appearances since returning after missing the first month of the season with an injury, but he has slashed .350/.409/.500 in the small sample and can provide value for just $4,000/$3,600. Grichuk is another player who is priced at a much stronger discount on DraftKings than FanDuel. Ryan McMahon slots in for $4,600 at third base on DraftKings and adds second base eligibility for $3,100 on FanDuel. McMahon has a terrific contact profile with a 15.1% barrel rate and 48.8% hard-hit rate, he may not even see the lefty opener, depending on how deep Suarez goes and how effective he is, making the slugger an interesting option at the dish. Alan Trejo and Ezequiel Tovar are lower-end options to round out the lineup. Trejo has created runs 50% worse than average in 76 opportunities, Tovar is at 44% below average with two home runs and one stolen base.
Play: bats bats bats
Update Notes: the Phillies lineup includes Kody Clemens instead of Sosa in the eighth spot. Clemens hits from the left side and has a .152/.200/.424 triple-slash but a .273 ISO and three home runs in 35 plate appearances, he costs $2,600 at first and third base on DraftKings and looks like a good way to offset some Coors cost with a power bat. Clemens has a cheap 8.32 in our home run model. The Rockies lineup does not include Charlie Blackmon, Profar leads off ahead of Bryant-Diaz-Cron-Grichuk-McMahon-Tovar-Trejo-Brenton Doyle. Doyle is once again an interesting option late in the lineup for just $2,900/$3,100, while he is not a major prospect he does have decent power upside and is pulling a 7.37 in our home run model.
Follow on Twitter for daily links to all published content.
