Ten-game Tuesday MLB DFS action rolls in with a 7:05 ET start on both DraftKings and FanDuel and an extremely interesting slate with options galore. The Power Index is topped by several premium squads against either low-end pitchers, or good pitchers who tend to give up a bit of power along the way, we’ll refer to them as the A. Heaney types… or is that too specific? Andrew H.? The Angels starter can be an elite strikeout artist when he is going right, and he can get tattooed when he is making mistakes, which he’ll typically do at least once per game even in his good outings, which is feeding into the right-handed power from Seattle. That second spot on today’s board probably qualifies more for home run hunting than full stacking, where the Yankees, Padres, Twins, Braves, and others make for stronger full stacks. The return of Aaron Judge is pushing the Yankees’ average to the very top of the board, the superstar could have a big day against a limited pitcher in his return to the lineup.
Main Slate Power Index – 5/9/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column is the average of our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their most significant bats.
The Yankees are in a prime position on a warm day in the New York area with Oakland righty Drew Rucinski on the mound and Aaron Judge returning to the outfield, and more importantly, the plate. The Yankees lineup has been putrid in the absence of Judge for the last two weeks, the slugger does everything for this team’s offense. Even in a slow start to his season, Judge was creating runs 34% better than average with a .250 ISO while slashing .261/.352/.511 in his 108 plate appearances. He is carrying a slate-leading 19.22 in our home run model against Rucinski today. The Athletics’ righty is filling a rotation spot until more kids in the system are ready for action, largely because no one else wanted to pitch for this team. Rucinski pitched in Korea and was a KBO star for the NC Dinos, but the KBO plays roughly like AA baseball in a lot of ways, in his two starts and 9.1 innings in the Show this season, Rucinski has a 6.47 xFIP with a 7.71 ERA, a 12.8% walk rate, and a 2.25 WHIP while striking out just 8.5% in the tiny sample. Rucinski is not a Major League caliber pitcher at this point, Judge and the rest of the Yankees should be in a position to beat him up a bit this evening. With Judge in the second spot in the lineup, leadoff man Anthony Volpe should see an uptick in value, if he can manage to get on base with regularity. The rookie is slashing .205/.307/.320 while creating runs 20% below average. Volpe is cheap at $4,200/$2,700 for a player who has individual mid-range power, tons of speed, and who correlates so directly with Judge. Anthony Rizzo slots in with more protection in the lineup and is pulling down the second-highest mark in our home run model. The lefty first baseman is a terrific bat, he has a terrific hit tool, gets on base, and has regularly been above 30 home runs season after season throughout his career. Rizzo has a 13.35 in our home run model and he is still too cheap at $4,500/$3,100. DJ LeMahieu hit a home run last night, he now has four on the season with a .183 ISO while creating runs 23% better than average in his 128 plate appearances. LeMahieu is somewhat miscast as a cleanup hitter, but his bat is capable enough to fill that role until Giancarlo Stanton returns to further shore up this lineup. LeMahieu has a 7.2% barrel rate with a top-notch 53% hard-hit rate, he can drive the ball for run creation purposes and he hits occasional home runs. Similar things could be said about Gleyber Torres, but LeMahieu has the better overall hit tool of the two infielders. Torres slots in fifth, he has five home runs and five stolen bases so far this season while slashing .250/.343/.444 with a .194 ISO and creating runs 19% better than average. Right-handed outfielder Harrison Bader has abused left-handed pitching early in his return to action this season, he should be a good fit against a very weak right-handed starter tonight as well. Over his 22 plate appearances so far this season, Bader has a pair of home runs and has created runs 41% better than average. The toolsy speedy outfielder has also tripled twice in the tiny sample, though he has yet to steal a base he has definite upside in that arena as well. Bader is a good buy at just $3,600/$3,000. Jake Bauers slots in as a left-handed bat late in the lineup. Bauers has a home run on the board in his 11 opportunities this year, he hit four in 315 tries in 2021 and did not play in the Majors last year. Kyle Higashioka is our preferred Yankees catcher for MLB DFS purposes because he pounds the ball when he makes contact. Higashioka has two home runs and just a .188/.235/.333 triple-slash while creating runs 45% worse than average in his limited action, but he has a 19.4% barrel rate and 58.1% hard-hit rate that were 9.8% and 48.1% in a sample of 248 plate appearances last year. Higashioka is rarely popular and he is a sneaky power hitter in the catcher role for just $2,700/$2,300 when everything comes together correctly. Oswaldo Cabrera hit one out yesterday, he now has two home runs and a .107 ISO for the season while creating runs 55% worse than average and slashing .204/.236/.311, he remains a mix-and-match piece at the bottom of the lineup.
The Mariners are an interesting inflection point for tonight’s slate. They are at home in a pitching-friendly environment to face good-but-problematic Andrew Heaney, a highly capable lefty with premium strikeout stuff and a home run problem. Heaney made 14 starts and threw 72.2 innings last season, he struck out 35.5% of hitters and allowed a home run to another 4.52%, giving up a massive 47.7% hard-hit rate and an 11% barrel rate, neither of which pair well with a 17.8-degree average launch angle allowed and 91.2 mph of average exit velocity. This season, Heaney has dipped to 24.4% strikeouts in his six starts and 29.1 innings, and he has given up a 5.51% home run rate on premium contact numbers that are all over the map. In this year’s microscopic sample, the southpaw has given up a 12.8% barrel rate but only 32.1% hard hits on 88.5 mph of average exit velocity, the last two of which would be major improvements over the last two seasons, but the first of which is unsustainable for power-hitting upside. As if determined to illustrate his issues for us early this season, Heaney allowed two home runs and struck out only two in his 2.2-inning seven-run disaster of a first start, then went three straight games without giving up a home run, striking out 10 Royals, four Astros, and four Athletics while pitching five innings twice and six in the third start. In his next two starts, Heaney struck out six Yankees but allowed two home runs and three earned runs, then he struck out five Diamondbacks but walked four and allowed three home runs and six earned runs. This is one of the more frustrating starters in baseball, he can get hit extremely hard when he is not right and the Mariners are loaded with right-handed power. The team could potentially be better for small stacks or one-off home run upside plays than for full stacking, in case we get the capable or even the high-end version of Heaney. The lefty can punch holes in a lineup and make it difficult to sequence with his strikeout upside, but he also walks hitters at an aggressive pace and can create trouble for himself that the Mariners may capitalize on as well. At .210/.278/.399 with a .188 ISO while creating runs nine percent below average, it might be safe to say that Julio Rodriguez is pressing a bit in an effort to duplicate his fantastic rookie season. The sophomore star still has a 10.4% barrel rate and a 44.8% hard-hit for the season and he has those six home runs and six stolen bases it seems like we’ve been mentioning since the second week of the season when it comes to MLB DFS counting stats. Rodriguez should absolutely get things in gear soon enough, he has a team-leading 13.52 in our home run model tonight. Ty France hit one out last night and now has two home runs on the season while creating runs 16% better than average. France has upper-mid-range power and a very good hit tool, he hits second and gets involved with regularity when he is going right. Jarred Kelenic has seven home runs and a 149 WRC+ with a .263 ISO, he has a 13.6% barrel rate that matches last season’s strong mark in the category and his hard hit rate has soared from 35% to 54.3%. Kelenic has cooled slightly from his hot start, but that is an expected normalization, he can still be looked at as a premium bat in this lineup for just $4,800/$3,300. Kelenic has a pair of home runs and is slashing .346/.393/.654 with a .308 ISO while creating runs 92% better than average in 28 plate appearances against same-handed pitching this season, so the lefty-lefty matchup is not a major concern, but he may drop to fifth in the lineup depending what the Mariners decide tonight. Eugenio Suarez has an 11.75 in our home run model, he has three on the season with just a .105 ISO but there is a long track record of power that will linger with this hitter unless the blackout continues for a long stretch. Suarez is very cheap for his upside against this pitcher, he costs just $3,800/$2,800 at third base and is a playable piece in all configurations of Mariners. Teoscar Hernandez may slide up to third in the lineup in a swap with Kelenic, the right-handed outfielder is slashing .226/.267/.416 but has a .190 ISO and seven home runs in his 146 plate appearances. Hernandez has a 13.6% barrel rate and 45.5% hard-hit rate so far this season, very good marks that are slightly down from his excellent 15% and 52.7% from last year. One version of the projected lineup includes Tom Murphy and skips Cal Raleigh, giving the catcher a night off, but it seems likely that Raleigh will work his way into the lineup against this lefty. He would add another major power bat to the Mariners’ lineup on the right side of the plate. Raleigh has a 10.48 in our home run model in this spot in the lineup, he has hit five homers this season and has a .202 ISO with a 13.9% barrel rate for just $4,200/$3,000. Murphy is good for right-handed catcher power as well, he has zero home runs this year but hit 11 in 325 plate appearances in 2021 and comes cheap at $2,100/$2,000. AJ Pollock, JP Crawford, and Jose Caballero round out the projected lineup with an 8.06, 3.10, and 3.34 in our home run model, Pollock is the clear play from that group if we ignore positioning. The veteran outfielder has a .254 ISO and four home runs in his 64 plate appearances this year but is slashing .153/.203/.407 and has created runs 36% worse than average.
