NFL DFS Projections
The projections below are created from our custom NFL model for DraftKings and FanDuel. DraftKings projections include bonuses for players projected to achieve them in our model. Projections will be updated for any injury/inactive news that breaks prior to lock.
last updated: 11:10 am ET – 10/1/23 –
Note: Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson has been ruled OUT, rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson will start in his place in a downgrade to a situation we already did not like in a game we already did not like. Derek Carr is expected to suit up and start for the Saints despite his shoulder injury, he has been added replacing Jameis Winston. Niners running back Elijah Mitchell and Bears wide receiver Chase Claypool are expected to sit for Week 4, they have been removed with downstream updates applied in projections. Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has been ruled out, Brian Hoyer will start in his place, we are yielding to increasing rumors and have flipped from Brian Hoyer to Aidan O’Connell in the most recent update to projections, we expect to change it back in a few hours when the Raiders go with the obvious lousy veteran quarterback decision. Either way, the quarterback change causes a cascade of reduced fantasy points downstream among the Raiders skill players. A variety of updates have been made, most notably Austin Ekeler has been removed, his status is Doubtful and he has been trending toward missing Week 4. Browns tight end David Njoku was added to the injury report after suffering burns in an accident at home, his status is unclear and we have chopped the TE projections three ways for Cleveland, the position is not currently looking strong in that offense. We are currently projecting Dererk Carr to sit and Jimmy Garoppolo to play. Treylon Burks, Irv Smith, and Rashod Bateman have all been ruled out.
| Player | POS | TEAM | OPP | FD$ | FD | DK$ | DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | KC | $17,500 | 22.24 | $18,000 | 24.46 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | SF | $15,000 | 19.16 | $15,900 | 19.26 |
| Brock Purdy | QB | SF | KC | $14,500 | 18.61 | $15,000 | 18.69 |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | KC | SF | $12,500 | 13.59 | $12,000 | 14.40 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | KC | SF | $13,000 | 13.51 | $15,300 | 16.63 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | KC | SF | $11,000 | 12.90 | $11,400 | 13.90 |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | SF | KC | $11,500 | 11.41 | $13,800 | 13.50 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | WR | SF | KC | $10,500 | 10.77 | $13,200 | 12.73 |
| George Kittle | TE | SF | KC | $10,000 | 10.02 | $9,600 | 11.85 |
| Harrison Butker | K | KC | SF | $9,500 | 7.88 | $7,500 | 7.88 |
| Jake Moody | K | SF | KC | $9,000 | 7.79 | $7,800 | 7.79 |
| San Francisco 49ers | D | SF | KC | $8,500 | 6.41 | $4,400 | 6.41 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | D | KC | SF | $9,000 | 4.95 | $3,400 | 4.95 |
| Noah Gray | TE | KC | SF | $5,500 | 3.85 | $2,700 | 4.47 |
| Justin Watson | WR | KC | SF | $6,500 | 3.81 | $3,600 | 4.14 |
| Jauan Jennings | WR | SF | KC | $7,000 | 3.44 | $6,000 | 4.09 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | RB | KC | SF | $6,500 | 3.42 | $1,800 | 3.87 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | WR | KC | SF | $7,500 | 3.11 | $4,500 | 4.35 |
| Skyy Moore | WR | KC | SF | $5,000 | 1.95 | $3,000 | 3.73 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | RB | SF | KC | $5,500 | 1.46 | $1,200 | 1.84 |
| Richie James Jr. | WR | KC | SF | $5,500 | 1.38 | $600 | 2.05 |
| Elijah Mitchell | RB | SF | KC | $7,000 | 1.24 | $4,200 | 1.63 |
| Jordan Mason | RB | SF | KC | $5,000 | 0.94 | $900 | 1.03 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud III | WR | SF | KC | $5,500 | 0.84 | $300 | 1.02 |
| Mecole Hardman Jr. | WR | KC | SF | $5,500 | 0.74 | $2,400 | 2.09 |
| Blake Bell | TE | KC | SF | $5,000 | 0.65 | $300 | 0.98 |
| Charlie Woerner | TE | SF | KC | $5,000 | 0.63 | $300 | 0.80 |
| Brayden Willis | TE | SF | KC | $5,000 | 0.58 | $300 | 0.74 |
| Jerick McKinnon | RB | KC | SF | $6,000 | 1.23 | $300 | 2.35 |
| Chris Conley | WR | SF | KC | $5,000 | 0.22 | $300 | 0.22 |
| La'Mical Perine | RB | KC | SF | $5,000 | 0.06 | $300 | 0.06 |
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