This article focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within the industry’s optimization tools. All of the concepts and pairings included below can also apply to hand-building. The goal is to create lineups with strong correlations among likely point-scorers to maximize the gains from infrequent scoring events within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.
This video was made in a former life and features a detailed demonstration of how to apply these concepts in one leading optimizer tool: Fantasy Cruncher – How-To Video
All references to Sims were done via friends of the site: acemind.io
Don’t miss the Above/Below feature article for a few of our top picks, coming Sunday morning
Game notes are updated during the week and initially posted as “work in progress” as they take a long time to create, if teams are missing notes simply check back later in the day/week and they should be updated.
2025 Week 9 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stack Rankings
The following stack rankings were created by pairing each team quarterback with his top three scoring options, whether they are three wide receivers, two wide receivers and a tight end, a wide receiver, tight end, and running back, or any viable combination. In some cases, an expensive running back can push the overall price point of his team stack in the value rankings.
| TEAM | OPP | FD$ | FDpRank | FDvalRank | DK$ | DkpRank | DKvalRank | Vegas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | JAC | $28,000 | 9 | 8 | $21,800 | 9 | 5 | 11 |
| ATL | NO | $27,200 | 11 | 10 | $22,000 | 11 | 7 | 17 |
| BAL | NYJ | $29,600 | 4 | 4 | $24,400 | 5 | 6 | 2 |
| CHI | PIT | $27,100 | 13 | 11 | $22,300 | 13 | 12 | 8 |
| CIN | NE | $27,500 | 10 | 9 | $22,900 | 10 | 10 | 14 |
| CLE | LV | $23,600 | 20 | 17 | $17,900 | 20 | 14 | 20 |
| DAL | PHI | $32,800 | 5 | 15 | $27,700 | 4 | 17 | 12 |
| DET | NYG | $33,400 | 1 | 2 | $28,000 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| GB | MIN | $26,000 | 14 | 7 | $20,600 | 14 | 11 | 9 |
| IND | KC | $30,900 | 8 | 12 | $27,700 | 6 | 19 | 10 |
| JAC | ARI | $25,700 | 12 | 5 | $20,900 | 12 | 4 | 7 |
| KC | IND | $28,600 | 2 | 1 | $24,600 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| LV | CLE | $27,300 | 15 | 18 | $21,900 | 15 | 18 | 16 |
| MIN | GB | $28,300 | 16 | 19 | $23,500 | 16 | 20 | 19 |
| NE | CIN | $27,900 | 7 | 3 | $24,000 | 7 | 8 | 3 |
| NO | ATL | $25,400 | 17 | 16 | $20,300 | 17 | 13 | 14 |
| NYG | DET | $24,200 | 18 | 14 | $20,000 | 18 | 15 | 18 |
| NYJ | BAL | $24,300 | 21 | 21 | $17,000 | 21 | 16 | 21 |
| PHI | DAL | $33,100 | 3 | 13 | $25,600 | 3 | 9 | 6 |
| PIT | CHI | $27,900 | 19 | 20 | $22,600 | 19 | 21 | 13 |
| SEA | TEN | $29,400 | 6 | 6 | $19,800 | 8 | 1 | 4 |
| TEN | SEA | $22,300 | 22 | 22 | $17,900 | 22 | 22 | 22 |
Week 9 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stacks & Optimizer Groups
Overview
Rules and limits are powerful tools for lineup creation for NFL DFS where our primary focus is creating highly correlated lineups via stacking players from the same game. Lineups will typically be coordinated around the quarterback selection, which informs at least one pass-catcher choice, establishes a budget, eliminates a defense, and sets the tone for the lineup. We will typically look to correlate a quarterback and at least one of his pass-catchers in every lineup, with many of those including a skill player from the opposing team. This player is included to support the stack in a high-scoring game that drives offense on both sides, creating additional correlated scoring potential. Stacking multiple pass-catchers in the same lineup is a sound approach, though there are typically overall ceilings on how much volume is available at any given position. While pass-catching running backs can be prioritized in stacks and group tools, including running backs who are not involved in the passing game is less important at this stage, they will fall naturally into shares as needed. High-volume backs and pass catchers out of the backfield can be included in the groups utilized below, but it is frequently not necessary to do so with the very best players, they arrive in lineups without help.
Rules and limits are typically applied in an optimizer’s Advanced Options menu. Notes are included to illustrate the reasons behind each rule and explain what it does during the lineup creation process. These settings can typically be saved for re-use, which is highly recommended. Saving the groups created below is also a good idea that will save time with updates instead of recreation each week. These groups are created manually, but most optimizers include automated group creators that can help accelerate the curation process.
DraftKings + FanDuel Settings & Advanced Options
Note – Terminology may vary from site to site but these are common functions across most industry tools.
Unique Players Per Lineup– This setting forces the optimizer to utilize at least X new players who were not in Lineup 1 when it creates Lineup 2, and so on. We recommend a setting of at least two unique players, more can be applied depending on the degree of differentiation desired within lineups.
Team Salary– a minimum or maximum salary spend can be applied here as needed, although leaving salary on the table is an easy path toward creating unique lineups while not necessarily making a negative expected value play.
FLEX position– allows restrictions on what positions can be rostered at the FLEX spot. The primary position to restrict is the tight end so that lineups do not include two players from the position. In many industry tools this is a separate option via a checkbox, it can also be handled specifically within groups.
Global Exposure Setting – allows caps on the maximum percentage of lineups a player can appear in within a given pool of lineup construction. This is a powerful tool for shaping lineups but if settings are too low, attempts to build a full set will fall short due to a lack of available players, one of the most common errors in optimizer building. Most optimizers include the ability to calculate ownership caps continuously or at the end of the pool creation process. If caps are calculated continuously, a player with a 25% cap who is utilized in Lineup 1 will not be available for use again until Lineup 5, we recommend turning OFF continuous calculation.
Randomness – provides a random multiplier to each player’s projected point total based on the set values. This valuable tool helps differentiate lineups instead of simply creating them in order of the highest median projected scores. Using some randomness for lineup generation is strongly recommended but the degree to which it is applied is down to personal preference, 15-25% is fine to get started. We suggest heavier randomness to more event-based players like wide receivers while tracking volume-based positions like running backs more toward their median or ceiling projections.
DraftKings + FanDuel Team Stack Rules
This set of rules will force optimizers to build lineups with certain combinations. We are looking to stack at least one skill player, almost always a pass-catcher, with his quarterback while frequently playing a skill player from the opposing team in the lineup. The theory behind this build is that a high-scoring stack will require some response from the opposing team to deliver a ceiling score in most situations. Most optimizers utilize a “complete the sentence” approach for rule creation with selections from drop-down menus following a very straightforward logic. Exceptions to these rules can be added for specific teams and players on most optimizer products.
- QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It is fine to set this to two or to utilize two versions of this rule, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can also refine this via Groups)
- optional – QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from the Opposing Team (we typically prefer the pass-catchers but high-volume running backs can be effective here)
- QB with at most zero DST from the Same Team (this is a personal preference; high-scoring teams and quarterbacks tend to leave their defenses on the field, exposing them to simple point-scoring negatives)
Limits & Custom Rules and Requirements
Limit rules can be applied to restrict certain combinations from coming together. This is powerful for limiting multiple running backs from the same team or getting overweight to a certain stack within a lineup.
- Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
- Limit RB/WR/TE from the Same Team to one unless paired with QB from the Same Team OR the Opposing Team (this prevents multiple players from a team that is not a primary quarterback-based stack)
- optional – Limit RB from Same Team to one (we can also do this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s a personal preference for NFL DFS, we typically do not want two pass-catchers from the same team without their quarterback)
We will maintain the list of rules and limits throughout the season, with occasional tweaks. Each week sees another fresh crop of value plays as situations change and injuries create opportunities around the league. These changing roles and emergent value plays are accounted for in creating these groups from week to week. After a large pool of lineups is created utilizing these groups, it is still critical to filter them for factors including ceiling projections and leverage potential. These groups should help ensure that a highly correlated premium set of options that rotates through various combinations is utilized to create the full lineup pool.
Sunday Updates
Any changes and recommended boosts to specific players will be provided in an early morning update each Sunday.
NFL DFS Week 9 Features & Projections
- Week 9 Projections
- Week 9 Above/Below
- Week 9 Quarterback Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 9 Running Back Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 9 Pass-Catcher Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 9 Defense Scoring & Value Rankings
Construction Concept
Team groups are built by utilizing the quarterback as the KEY player in group settings. The quarterback decision is the driving factor in determining which stack the lineup utilizes and which corresponding plays are made to work within the structured requirements. In Fantasy Cruncher, built to specification, each team will have two groups, a team group, and an opponent group, both of which utilize the same quarterback as the key player. Each game will have a total of four groups. This is the best approach to truly capture the requirement of playing individual “run-back” plays from the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to include all of the skill players from a game in each quarterback’s group and rely on rules and limits to restrict any potential overflow. It is highly recommended to save the early season groups as a foundation that will be updated for the rest of the season. The recommended groups will include skill players who have an active role in their offense and provide significant correlation with their quarterback’s scoring, often bell-cow running backs who do not specialize in the passing game will not be included in groups as they are projected highly and appear on their own in basically correct distributions, while also not always providing the strongest positive correlation plays. Stacking quarterbacks with pass-catchers and allowing running backs to fall into the lanes created by settings, available salary, and randomness should create a well-distributed set of quality lineups. These groups are updated weekly to account for changes in utilization, schemes, injuries, target shares, and more.
Team Groups for DraftKings & FanDuel – Week 9
The goal is to create a large pool of well-built lineups that can be utilized in any large-field GPP contest. Our approach is to build far more lineups than needed and utilize a sorting table or sim process to filter to the best set of entries. The lineups created in these crunches should provide a broad distribution that includes some of the lower-owned high-upside skill players from each stack. Applying boosts is critical in pushing and pulling ownership to individual players within their team’s stacked lineups if they appear too much or too little.
The groups below are designed so that each quarterback will have two groups to create, one with his skill players and another with the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to add them all to one large group with an “at least three” and let rules and limits set things, but there is a more granular level of control in creating them separately.
Utilizing two groups also allows us to place running backs into the “run-back” position in certain teams while not including them in the primary stack for their team. This is useful when a situation has an extremely highly projected running back that does not necessarily fit into his team’s passing game. These players are threaded throughout the following construction recommendations.
Note for all optimizers the rules can be utilized to force bring-back plays in some sets of crunches and turned off for others as a global function instead of changing each group to “exactly one” bring-back play, wherever applicable, but it will apply to all teams.
Atlanta Falcons
Game Total: 45.5 / ATL +5.5 (20.0)
Offense: 44.65% rush / 55.35% pass / 17.1 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.5 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass / 18.3 ppg / 7.04% sack / 2.79% int
Key Player: Michael Penix Jr.
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Drake London, Bijan Robinson (on/off), Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts Sr., David Sills V (large field), Tyler Allgeier (on/off; large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Stefon Diggs, TreVeyon Henderson, Kayshon Boutte, Hunter Henry, Mack Hollins, DeMario Douglas, Austin Hooper
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Michael Penix Jr. slots back in for Atlanta in Week 9 but he returns as A low-end GPP option. Penix Jr. ranks just 18th in positional points on both sites and 17th (DraftKings) / 18th (FanDuel) in value. The Atlanta stack rankings are in the middle of the slate (10th in points on DraftKings, 11th on FanDuel) but a significant portion of that is bolstered by Bijan Robinson. Penix averages 32.5 pass attempts for 234.8 yards per game and 7.2 yards per attempt, but his completion percentage sits a concerning 4.6 points below expectation by CPOE and he has thrown just five touchdowns against three interceptions in six games. The one path to success is the matchup: New England’s defense has been ugly against the pass, their 7.6 yards allowed per pass attempt ranks 25th but they land more in the middle of the board for touchdown passes and CPOE. Atlanta skill players as individuals are probably better than the whole once again in Week 9.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson is an elite, high-volume option at running back, pushing him toward the top of the positional board as well as overall projections on a near-weekly basis. Robinson ranks 3rd in positional points on both sites. He’s a stronger value on FanDuel (7th) than on DraftKings (13th). He’s a true workhorse, averaging 15.1 carries for 78.4 yards (5.2 YPA) while logging 2.8 yards after contact per attempt. He’s also heavily involved in the passing game, averaging 3.7 targets and 4.7 receptions, and has seen 6 red zone targets. Robinson has found the end zone twice on the ground and twice in the passing game, giving him adequate scoring for the volume but setting him behind the best of the best at the position. Overall, the only drawback is a brutal matchup against New England’s 2nd-ranked YPRA run defense that yields just 3.5 yards per attempt on the season.
Tyler Allgeier is in a difficult spot for DFS production. The running back plays just 17.9% of snaps on average and produces 3.4 yards per rush attempt on the season. Allgeier checks into Week 9 ranking 35th or worse in points and value on both sites. He averages 8.7 carries and just 0.7 receptions, and now faces one of the league’s toughest run defenses where his primary value would be in assassinating Bijan Robinson’s fantasy value with a poached touchdown.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Drake London is the clear top option in the Atlanta passing attack and he looks like a good option across DFS sites this week. London projects as a top-8 points play at WR on both sites and a top-8 value on DraftKings. He averages a massive 10.5 targets per game while running 35 routes, despite only a 61.2% snap share. London is a go-to deep threat on a 10.1-yard average depth of target who dominates the team’s air yards at 34.5% and gets to attack New England’s the 25th-ranked (by YPA) pass defense. The Patriots yield 1.5 touchdowns per game as well, this is a good spot for London if his quarterback can deliver, to this point the receiver has drawn just a 63.49% catchable target rate from Falcons quarterbacks.
Darnell Mooney pops as a top-tier value play, particularly on DraftKings where he ranks 4th at WR in points-per-dollar despite landing as WR29 by points. Mooney is cheap at $4,200 on that site, less so on FanDuel where his $5,700 has him ranked as just WR32/26 by points and value. Mooney is a high-variance deep threat, running 28 routes per game and seeing a 15.6-yard ADOT that keeps him in big play territory in a small five-game sample. He only averages 5.0 targets and 1.13 yards per route run, though some of that can be blamed on a 56.0% catchable target rate this season. With the same plus matchup against a leaky pass defense and could slip under the radar by comparison to his high-profile teammates. Mooney is undeniably a stronger option for the sheer value upside on DraftKings in GPP play for Week 9.
Kyle Pitts Sr. is a reasonable mid-range TE option, projecting 8th in raw points on both sites. He’s a top-5 value as TE8/5 on FanDuel and 11th on DraftKings. Pitts Sr. is on the field for 54% of snaps and is a key part of the passing game, averaging 6.7 targets per game over his 33.4 routes per game, posting 1.47 yards per route run to sit second on the team. Pitts is also a premier red zone weapon, leading the team with 9 red zone targets, though that has amounted to just one touchdown catch to date.
David Sills V, KhaDarel Hodge, and Jamal Agnew are all very low-end dart throws in an offense carrying just a 20-point implied team total with major volume allocated to the top options.
The Falcons pieces are once again far more than their sum, with the team landing as Stack 10 by points and Stack 13 by value on DraftKings and as Stack 11/15 on the FanDuel slate. Most notably, Michael Penix Jr. simply does not hold up to scrutiny on this slate, outside of a good matchup the quarterback has simly failed to provide enough DFS upside. Bijan Robinson is always a priority and some of the Falcons pass-catchers are strong options for points, value, or both.
Buffalo Bills
Game Total: 52.5 / BUF + 1.0 (25.75)
Offense: 50.46% rush / 49.54% pass / 29.6 ppg / 5.2 ypa rush / 8.0 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass / 16.4 ppg / 7.08% sack / 2.69% int
Key Player: Josh Allen
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, James Cook III (on/off), Elijah Moore, Curtis Samuel (on/off; large field), Dawson Knox (on/off; large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt (on/off), Brashard Smith (on/off), Hollywood Brown
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Josh Allen is an elite fantasy quarterback in one of the most appealing high-profile games of the week, ranking 2nd in positional points on both sites. Allen’s value mark is 14th on DraftKings and 11th on FanDuel, and the Bills stack comes up a bit light as just a mid-ranked team, requiring individual production from Allen to create slate-winning potential. He’s averaging 7.9 yards per pass attempt on 28.1 attempts and adds immense value with his legs, averaging 7.0 rushes for 37.2 yards with 5 rushing touchdowns on the season. Allen has thrown for a dozen touchdowns while losing only four interceptions so far this year. The Bills draw a Kansas City defense that ranks ninth against the pass with 6.7 yards allowed per attempt, they give up a bit more on the ground with 4.4 yards allowed per rush but there should be enough scoring potential at a 25.75-point implied team total to support Allen +1 or +2 stacks with the team’s affordable collection of skill players.
Running Backs
James Cook III is a solid option in and out of stacks, ranking as RB7 by points and RB15 by value on DraftKings while landing as RB8/14 on the FanDuel board. Cook is on the field for just 39% of snaps, but averages 18.0 carries for 107.5 yards, good for a whopping 5.3 per attempt, boosted by an impressive 1.81 YPA/EXP. Cook is also active in the passing game with 2.0 average targets, he has not caught a touchdown pass but has punched the ball into the end zone seven times on the ground in the productive Buffalo offense. Against a Kansas City team allowing 4.4 yards per rush attempt, Cook is a fair mid-board running back option that is not likely to be crushingly popular.
Ty Johnson is a low-snap (18.6%) backup who ranks outside the top-35 in points and value. He averages just 2.1 carries and 1.0 target, making him a non-entity for DFS scoring without an incident above him on the depth chart or a broken play.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Khalil Shakir projects as a top-25 WR in points, and he’s a top-20 value on both sites. He’s playing 39.6% of snaps and running 26.2 routes per game, drawing 5.9 targets (8 overall in the red zone this season). Shakir is productive and deadly after the catch with 9.7 yards after the catch per reception, good for a massive 3.5 yards after the catch over expectation per reception, while averaging 4.4 receptions for 50.8 yards and 3 TDs against a beatable 9th-ranked Chiefs pass defense. Shakir slots in as a playable WR24/19 and WR25/20 and plays up for quality inside of Bills stacks.
Keon Coleman is a solid value, ranking as WR34/27 on DraftKings and WR37/21 on FanDuel with a bit of points-per-dollar scoring potential riding on his ability to find the end zone. Coleman is playing 48.3% of snaps to lead the receiver room with 27.7 routes run per game, though he is targeted on just 19.7% of those routes for 5.6 targets per game. Coleman is the team’s big downfield threat with a 10.2 -yard ADOT and a 28% air yards share, averaging 3.8 receptions for 38.1 yards each week with two touchdowns on the season.
Dalton Kincaid is a mid-board tight end play, ranking 11th in positional points and 12th in value with touchdown-based upside for more. He’s playing 30.8% of snaps and running 20.6 routes, averaging 4.5 targets (3 in the red zone). Kincaid is a a reliable option for an OK fantasy score, averaging 3.5 catches for 51.6 yards with 3 touchdown catches on the season tying him for the team lead.
Elijah Moore is a deep GPP flier, playing just 19.5% of snaps and averaging 1.8 targets on 9.3 routes per game for 1.39 yards per route run. He ranks outside the top 55 in points and value across sites in Week 9 but could see a bit of an uptick from his usual involvement with Joshua Palmer out of action this week.
Curtis Samuel could also see a minor uptick in volume. The receiver averages just 1.3 targets and a catch per game, posting 0.85 yards per route run, though he has one cheap touchdown on the board this season.
Dawson Knox is another lower-end option who can see a bit of upside as a dart throw at a cheap touchdown. Knox plays 36.6% of the snaps and runs 16.1 routes per game, drawing 1.9 targets to give him slightly more volume than the depth wide receivers in the average contest. It is easy to see Knox benefitting most from the absence of Palmer, despite the difference in the nature of the two pass-catchers. The second-string tight end is just TE30/30 and TE32/31 across sites but we have seen him fall into the end zone for value on more than one slate over time.
The Bills are a fair mixer, their quarterback is the most desirable piece of the stack, which is rarely a problem when he comes with affordable skill players. The Bills lack a clear-cut superstar as the go-to pairing option, providing more depth of quality than peak, there is no Ja’Marr Chase as an easy click here. Still, Khalil Shakir is a skilled explosive upside option with sticky hands, Keon Coleman works big-play-adjacent patterns, and James Cook should be a tremendous option both in and out of stacks. The Bills are Stack 11 by points and Stack 15 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 10 by points and Stack 12 by value on FanDuel on Sunday
Carolina Panthers
Game Total: 44.0 / CAR +13.5 (15.25)
Offense: 45.74% rush / 54.26% pass / 19.3 ppg / 4.6 ypa rush / 6.1 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.7 ypa rush / 4.6 ypa pass / 21.4 ppg / 7.12% sack / 0.73% int
Key Player: Bryce Young
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Tetairoa McMillan, Rico Dowdle (on/off), Chuba Hubbard (on/off), Jalen Coker, Xavier Legette, Ja’Tavion Sanders (on/off), Tommy Tremble (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Josh Jacobs, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft, Matthew Golden, Emanuel Wilson (on/off), Malik Heath (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
A low-end quarterback option again in Week 9, Bryce Young ranks 20th in positional points on DraftKings and 22nd out of 22 on FanDuel, while also sitting 20th or worse by value. Young averages fair volume with 32 pass attempts per game but throws for only 184 yards. His 5.8 yards per pass attempt is pathetic and a -1.8 CPOE mark is concerning. Young and the Panthers face a crushing matchup with Green Bay landing 4th against the run at 3.7 yards allowed per rush attempt and topping the board against the pass at just 5.9 yards allowed per attempt. This is a stay-away option at just 15.25 implied team points in Week 9.
Running Backs
Rico Dowdle projects as a mid-range running back, ranking 21st in points on DraftKings and 24th on FanDuel, and offering decent value with the opportunity for more if he truly sees an uptick in touches as the coaching staff has promised. Word out of Carolina is that Dowdle will take over the starting mantle and primary opportunities, though the team was sure to mention that Chuba Hubbard would remain involved. Dowdle excelled in Hubbard’s absence but slipped to just 17 carries for 79 yards two weeks ago then eight carries for 54 yards last week, while Hubbard was largely ineffective with 14 and 12 carries. Despite the lack of quality, it was Hubbard, not Dowdle, who scored on the ground in Week 8. While Dowdle should pull slightly out of the near-even split, to improve on 13.2 carries and 2.1 targets per game, there are no guarantees for major volume in a very tough matchup against a Packers run defense that ranks 4th in YPRA allowed.
Chuba Hubbard is the other half of the committee, playing 41.7% of snaps on the season and seeing similar volume with 13.1 carries but more passing work with 3.5 targets per game. At worst, Hubbard should maintain some involvement in the passing game, but our money is on this situation not changing as much as the field may be expecting. Hubbard has been inefficient-to-bad in his six games this season with just 3.6 yards per rush attempt for a -0.65 YPA/EXP. Hubbard is a volume-based, low-upside play without volume, he ranks as RB27/31 on DraftKings and RB31/34 on FanDuel in a very difficult matchup.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Like the 72nd Junior Executive Vice President of Capitalism at a big bank, Tetairoa McMillan’s status as the clear number one receiver for Carolina is a dubious mantle at best. The rookie has been tremendous this season, running 34.0 routes per game and gaining 1.88 yards per route run on a 25.7% target share over those routes. McMillan has two touchdown catches on the season and dominates the team’s air yards share at a whopping 41.9% over his 11.1-yard ADOT. If McMillan saw better than a 65.08% catchable target rate from his lousy quarterback he would be in business as a weekly DFS option. As things stand, McMillan is not much more than a dart throw as WR26/40 and WR28/40 against a good pass defense.
Jalen Coker is a GPP dart throw who should continue to see growing volume. In two games since his return, Coker plays 33% of snaps and averages 3.0 targets, with two in the first contest and four over 29 routes run last week. Coker went from 17 routes over 26 snaps in Week 7 to 29 routes over 40 snaps last week, there is room for even more but this is not a good spot to find it. Coker ranks outside the top 45 in points and value across sites.
Xavier Legette sees the field with a 55.5% snap share on the season but took a hit with Coker’s return. The receiver sees 5.7 targets on average for the year but drew just three last week. He did have a big Week 7 against the Jets, catching a massive nine of 11 targets for 92 yards and a touchdown, but he is typically a more low-impact possession receiver with a 7.7-yard ADOT. He ranks outside the top 45 in points and value and is not a recommended play.
Ja’Tavion Sanders is not much more than filler on either site, though he stands somewhat taller than backup Tommy Tremble. Neither tight end cracks the top-25 in either category on FanDuel, though Sanders gets to TE23/22 on the DraftKings board. WIth 22.4 routes per game but just 0.99 yards per route run on the season for Sanders and 0.97 yards per route run over 16.8 routes per game for Tremble, and both tight ends sharing Tremble’s two touchdown catches, it is easy to see why there is a lack of appeal.
The Panthers are rarely in play but they look particularly low-end this week. We do not expect much out of the backfield even if there is a differentiation in the split this week, a subject on which we remain skeptical. The quarterback is terrible and low-ranked, and the team offers very little in the form of pass-catchers, though Tetairoa McMillan is capable of producing third-option wide receiver filler quality in a DFS lineup on either site.
Chicago Bears
Game Total: 51.0 / CHI -3.0 (27.0)
Offense: 45.41% rush / 54.59% pass / 24.0 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass
oppDEF: 5.0 ypa rush / 7.8 ypa pass / 31.6 ppg / 3.91% sack / 2.96% int
Key Player: Caleb Williams
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Rome Odunze, DJ Moore, Kyle Monangai, Colston Loveland, Olamide Zaccheaus, Cole Kmet
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown, Andrei Iosivas, Noah Fant, Samaje Perine (on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
The Bears land as slight favorites in one of the most potentially prolific scoring games of the week at 51.0 overall points, drawing a 27.o-point implied team total. At the helm of a premium scoring stack, Caleb Williams drops in as a top-tier GPP play, despite the potential for popularity. Williams ranks 4th in raw points on DraftKings and 1st in value while landing as QB4/QB2 on FanDuel. The Bears stack is 8th by points on both sites while landing 2nd for value on DraftKings and topping the value board on the blue site. Williams is averaging 31.8 pass attempts and 233.7 yards but has a deeply concerning -7.1 CPOE that can drag the team’s production down on his bad days. Williams has thrown nine touchdown passes against four interceptions, while his fantasy value is padded slightly by his legs, with 5.0 carries for 18.5 yards per game and a pair of rushing touchdowns on the season. The Bears are in an elite spot against a Bengals defense that is 29th in YPRA and 28th in YPPA at 5.0 yards per rush and 7.8 yards per pass, and they are allowing opponents to brutalize them for 31.6 points-per-game on the season. Caleb and Co. are strong options in Week 9 in a game with quality bring-back plays and excellent skill options on both sides to make stacking highly appealing.
Running Backs
With D’Andre Swift out of action in Week 9 it is go time for rookie Kyle Monangai. The neophyte saw only spotty involvement over the team’s first few games after going in the 7th round out of Rutgers in this year’s draft. Monangai picked up steam in recent weeks, however, climbing to 21, then 31 and finally 29 snaps with the offense over the past three games. His peak, so far, came with 81 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries, adding another 13 yards on a pair of catches over 10 routes in Week 7, outside of that performance he has not been over 30 yards in a game in his career. Monangai will have to fight off veteran Travis Homer for touches but he is the clearly favored option to start the week. Kyle Monangai is RB8 by points and RB1 by value on DraftKings and lands as RB7 by points and RB1 by value as a critical piece on both sites, he will need to continue his 4.4 yards per rush attempt for the season but that is not a major challenge against a bad rush defense.
Travis Homer is the next man up on the depth chart but he is yet to play a snap with the offense this season, getting into the last two games for 16 and 15 special teams snaps and missing the first six weeks of the season. Homer is the clear backup but Roschon Johnson is also out again this week, leaving the cupboard bare behind the rookie.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Rome Odunze is an elite wide receiver, ranking 7th in points on DraftKings and 6th on FanDuel, and 14th in value on DraftKings and 9th on FanDuel for points-per-dollar. Odunze is on the field for 60.3% of snaps, running 34.4 routes and drawing 8.0 targets per game, 7 of which have come in the red zone for the season to lead the team. Odunze is a major downfield option who dominates the air yards with a 43.8% share on a 13.5-yard ADOT. He’s in a prime smash spot against the 28th-ranked Bengals pass defense and should be a very popular wide receiver on both sites both in and out of Bears stacks.
DJ Moore is a strong value, ranking 13th in points-per-dollar on DraftKings, he slots in as a more average option as just WR23/24 on FanDuel. Moore sees 5.4 targets per game and has 4 in the red zone this season, though he has only reached paydirt once. The receiver sees a 17.3% target rate on routes run and provides 1.44 yards per route for the year, adequate but not great numbers. Moore is a solid secondary option to attack the 28th-ranked YPPA defense from a slightly lower-owned angle in GPPs on both sites, with a value uptick on DraftKings.
Olamide Zaccheaus is a bit more than a low-volume dart throw with rookie Luther Burden out of action this week. Zaccheaus plays 37.6% of snaps and sees 5.4 targets on average but those numbers could bounce just slightly in the rookie’s absence. Notably, six of the targets that Zaccheaus has seen this season have been in the red zone, ranking him second on the team behind Odunze in the category. The receiver has failed to score this season and his reputation after the catch has dwindled to just 3.0 YAC for 0.1 yards after the catch below expectation per reception. Zaccheaus operates as a short-area receiver with a 6.2-yard ADOT and is a top-26 value on DraftKings given a bit of cheap low-owned scoring potential at $3,300. As a $5,100 option he plays very differently on FanDuel as just WR46/42.
Colston Loveland is a viable GPP tight end, ranking 13th in points and 6th in value on DraftKings but just as TE12/11 on FanDuel. Loveland plays about 34% of the snaps on average, running 18.8 routes and seeing 3.0 targets, with three in the red zone this season. The tight end is a big-play threat for the position with a 9.0 ADOT, though he has failed to catch more than three passes or gain more than 38 yards in a game to this point while sharing duties with Cole Kmet. Loveland has run more routes and caught more passes in the team’s three most recent games, particularly last week with Kmet out of action, he should continue to come on for quality with the team sinking the 10th overall draft pick into him this season.
Cole Kmet is TE25/26 and TE24/25 and is only slightly more than a dart throw. The tight end still sees involvement in the passing attack, he was targeted 3.2 times per game over the first few weeks of the season but returns to an offense that may push the premium rookie up the board. Kmet has not exactly stood out with his 0.93 yards per route run on 23.7 route per game and sinle touchdown catch, though the tight end does get down the field for big play potential on an 1.12-yard ADOT that draws the eye.
The Bears are a good option with slate-bending potential in Week 9, they have quality options at every position with depth and value across the board, including a potentially standout rookie running back play at a great price at just the right time. Chicago stacks led by Caleb Williams as a top-5 quarterback option are a strong move and the Bears are facing a Bengals team that also ranks as a top stack this week, providing major upside for bring-back plays in both directions. Chicago is Stack 8 by points and Stack 2 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 8 by points and Stack 1 by value on FanDuel and look like a go-to play across the industry in spite of popularity.
Cincinnati Bengals
Game Total: 51.0 / CIN +3.0 (24.0)
Offense: 33.55% rush / 66.45% pass / 21.8 ppg / 4.3 ypa rush / 6.0 ypa pass
oppDEF: 5.3 ypa rush / 7.8 ypa pass / 26.4 ppg / 6.73% sack / 5.67% int
Key Player: Joe Flacco (Q)
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown, Andrei Iosivas, Noah Fant, Samaje Perine (on/off), Tanner Hudson (on/off), Drew Sample (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Rome Odunze, DJ Moore, Kyle Monangai, Colston Loveland, Olamide Zaccheaus, Cole Kmet
Game Notes:
Quarterback
On the other side of a potentially slate-leading game, ailing Joe Flacco is expected to be under center despite dealing with a throwing-shoulder AC joint issue. Flacco looks like an excellent, and potentially under-appreciated option if he is able to start in Week 9. The veteran quarterback checks in with major weapons in an aggressive passing game, his lightest volume since joining Cincinnati was the 34 pass attempts he threw while incurring the injury against the Jets last week. In the two prior games, Flacco threw the ball 45 and 47 times. The quarterback has seven touchdown passes and zero interceptions since joining the team and seems to have fallen in love with Ja’Marr Chase, targeting the star wideout 12 times in Week 6, 23 times in Week 7, and 19 times last week. Chase has two touchdowns on the board and has caught at least 10 passes for at least 90 yards in every game with Flacco. Joe Flacco slots in as QB6 by points and QB3 by value on both sites and is at the helm of Stack 2/4 and 2/5 against a Bears defense that has been ghastly with 5.3 yards allowed per rush ranking 31st and 7.8 yards per pass ranking 28th.
Running Backs
As usual, Chase Brown ranks no better than “fine”. The running back is RB14/16 and RB14/18 across sites this week. Brown gains just 3.9 yards per rush attempt on 12.1 carries per game, adding a bit of production from 3.9 targets per contest. The fault does not sit entirely with Brown, defenses were able to key on the rushing attack with the team rolling out substandard quarterbacks after Joe Burrow’s injury and before Flacco’s arrival. Brown is actually gaining 0.39 yards above expectation per rush attempt, which is not stunning but makes him better than he has looked. The running back has two rushing touchdowns and one in the passing game this season and is playable but not great.
Samaje Perine is a change-of-pace back, playing 21.9% of snaps and averaging 3.8 carries and 1.1 targets. He’s a low-end GPP play, ranking 22nd in value on DraftKings and 21st on FanDuel with expectations of very light volume once again.
Receivers & Tight Ends
As mentioned above, Ja’Marr Chase has been a volume monster since Flacco’s arrival. The quarterback targeted Chase 12 times in Week 6, 23 times in Week 7, and 19 times last week and he has two touchdowns on the board and has caught at least 10 passes for at least 90 yards in every game with Flacco. Nothing about this formula should be expected to change in what looks like a high-scoring affair against Chicago this week. Chase slots in as WR1 by points and WR2 by value on DraftKings and WR1/1 on FanDuel, with nothing but blue skies for upside. The receiver operates on an 8.2-yard ADOT with target volume pushing him to 41.61% of the air yards share, he has five touchdown catches and seems to be just warming up.
A solid 1A to Chase’s 1, Tee Higgins slots in as an easily clickable WR13/18 and WR15/27 across sites. Higgins sees 5.9 targets and has already drawn seven in the red zone this season while operating as the deep threat with a 13.4 ADOT and 33.2% air yards share. Higgins has four touchdowns on the season to push Chase for the team lead, they are an expensive but outstanding duo whose cost is somewhat alleviated by the cheap quarterback on both both sites.
Andrei Iosivas is the definition of a GPP dart throw. Iosivas plays 48.1% of snaps and runs 31.8 routes, but only sees 3.0 targets per game. The receiver is a deep threat with a 9.4 ADOT, though that is down slightly from last year’s 10.6-yard mark. Iosivas ranks outside the top 50 in value and is a stretch of an option to either pad or differentiate a stack of Bengals, he has less value outside of stacks this week.
Noah Fant is a usable tight end to fill out a +2 stack build, less so in standalone shares. Fant ranks 21st in points and 23rd in value on DraftKings while sitting as TE21/22 on FanDuel. He runs 17 routes and sees 3.6 targets each week, ceding volume to the far more talented pass-catchers at others positions. Fant has a low 3.0-yard ADOT but has managed to score two touchdowns on the season.
Tanner Hudson is a non-option as a dart throw with just 1.8 targets per game, any scoring would be driven by pure happenstance around a less-likely touchdown.
The Bengals are one of our top options as a stack this week with the hope that eyes will be drawn to the other side of this game and elsewhere. Cincinnati, as long as Flacco is at quarterback, lands as Stack 2/4 on DraftKings and Stack 2/5 on FanDuel. In any scenario, the team’s two big wide receivers are both extremely playable and appealing across any lineup format, they can be deployed separately in or out of stacks or together in expensive premium builds. The Bears offer excellent bring-back options for stacking and very little defense to slow things down.
Denver Broncos
Game Total: 40.0 / DEN +1.5 (19.25)
Offense: 42.89% rush / 57.12% pass / 25.9 ppg / 5.0 ypa rush / 6.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.9 ypa rush / 6.3 ypa pass / 14.7 ppg / 6.87% sack / 3.69% int
Key Player: Bo Nix
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin, Evan Engram, JK Dobbins (on/off), RJ Harvey (on/off), Pat Bryant, Trent Sherfield Sr. (on/off; large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, Woody Marks (on/off), Nick Chubb (on/off), Dalton Schultz (Q), Jayden Higgins, Xavier Hutchinson (large field), Jaylin Noel (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Bo Nix is a low-end quarterback on this slate, ranking 16th in raw points and 21st in value on DraftKings, and 19th in value on FanDuel. The Denver stack is weak as a whole, the stack is a bottom-tier unit, ranking 18th in points on both sites in Week 9. Nix attempts a high volume of passes at with 35.63 attempts per game, but throws for only 225.3 yards per contest and a limiting 6.3 per attempt. Nix completes passes at a rate that sits 2.4 points below expectation by CPOE, though he does add 4.8 carries for 21.3 yards per game, or 4.4 per attempt. Nix has three rushing touchdowns and has thrown for 15 this season, a lack of production is less of a problem than his collision with a surprisingly good Houston defense that drops in sixth against the run and third against the pass at 3.9 and 6.3 yards per attempt respectively. Houston’s offense has been mostly lousy this season but their defense is yielding just 14.7 points-per-game and the Broncos are pulling just a 19.25-point implied team total that screams stay away.
Running Backs
Against the tough Texans defense, JK Dobbins is a mid-range running back, ranking 19th in points on DraftKings and 21st in value while sitting as RB18/25 on the FanDuel slate. Dobbins is averaging 15 carries for 79.2 yards per game and an excellent 5.3 per rush attempt, gaining 1.36 yards above expectation per attempt. A lack of pass-game volume with just 1.5 targets per game can cut into the overall upside by comparison to some of his peers but Dobbins has been productive with the ball in his hands this season. As with the team as a whole, the RB19/21 and RB18/25 rankings are more about a bad matchup than the player himself.
RJ Harvey is a GPP punt, ranking 30th in points and 32nd in value on DraftKings. He sees 5.5 carries and 2.6 targets, and has four red zone targets this season but has broken a few gains and picks up 2.4 yards after contact per rush attempt. Harvey has found the end zone five times this season despite playing only 19.8% of the team’s snaps and seeing just 8.1 potential touches per game.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Courtland Sutton is an unspectacular but solid volume-based wide receiver, ranking 17th in points on DraftKings but a poor 41st in value and sitting as WR19/35 on FanDuel. Sutton is running 37.2 routes and seeing seven targets per game, with five in scoring territory over eight games. In addition to leading the team with a 20.7% target share on routes run, Sutton is the primary deep threat with a 12.3-yard ADOT and 32.8% air yards share. The receiver has three touchdown catches on the board while putting up 1.80 yards per route run on a 71.43% catchable target rate from Nix. Overall, the receiver has been producing like more of a second or third option, going over 100 yards just once despite the steady stream of targets.
Troy Franklin has posted a few cheap upstart performances while failing to crack 100 yards in a game this season. Franklin is a clear second option behind Sutton but he sees a similar 20.0% target share on routes run and has scored four times to Sutton’s three touchdowns. Franklin also operates down the field with an 11.1-yard ADOT and 30.0% air yards share. Between the two receivers, Nix’s primary stacking weapons are quite clear. Franklin is a mixer as WR32/39 and WR31/28, he plays up in Denver stacks but they are in a bad spot this week.
Pat Bryant and Trent Sherfield Sr. have seen very light involvement but could draw upticks in snaps and targets with Marvin Mims Jr. out of action in Week 9. Neither is likely to make a dent but either could get downfield for a key reception.
Tight end Evan Engram is the true third man up in the passing game. Engram ranks as just a mid-board positional play on both sites. He is running 22.8 routes and seeing 5.3 targets, with four red zone targets in seven games this season. Engram is a possession tight end with just a 4.4 ADOT in a bad matchup against a good defense in what Vegas draws as a low-scoring contest, he is TE12/14 and TE13/13 across sites.
The Broncos are a lousy stack this week, they have pieces and parts that are moderately usable outside of stacks but they do not amount to much more than fair volume dart throws against a good defense in a low-scoring game environment. Denver is Stack 18 by points and Stack 20 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 18/19 on the FanDuel slate where they look no better.
Detroit Lions
Game Total: 48.5 / DET -9.5 (29.0)
Offense: 48.82% rush / 51.18% pass / 30.7 ppg / 4.5 ypa rush / 8.0 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 7.7 ypa pass / 23.1 ppg / 8.82% sack / 1.61% int
Key Player: Jared Goff
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams, David Montgomery (on/off), Sam LaPorta, Kalif Raymond (large field), Brock Wright (large field), Isaac TeSlaa (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Aaron Jones Sr., Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, Jalen Nailor (large field), Adam Thielen (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Jared Goff is a high-end quarterback with excellent weapons and a tremendous 29.0-point implied team total that ranks first on this slate. Goff leads his Lions against a middling Minnesota defense that sits just 26th with 7.7 yards allowed per pass attempt. Still, Goff is ranking just 11th in points on both DraftKings and FanDuel, while sitting 16th in value on DraftKings and 15th on the blue site. The quarterback is expensive and he has been averaging just 17.6 fantasy points per game. Goff throws for 233.0 yards per game and 8.0 per attempt, quality passing marks over 29.0 attempts per game that are enhanced by his tremendous 7.1 CPOE mark. He has 15 touchdown passes against just three interceptions, again very strong marks halfway through the season. Goff completes passes well ahead of expectation, partly on the quality of his excellent targets. The quarterback has some of the best weapons in the game, helping him look far better as the key player in Stack 4 by points on DraftKings and Stack 3 by points on FanDuel than his individual ranking may suggest.
Running Backs
The most productive running back split in football simply carries on again this season. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery have already combined for 10 rushing touchdowns while Gibbs gains 5.1 yards per rush attempt over 14.9 carries per game and adds 6.9 yards per target on 4.0 targets per contest. Montgomery is slightly behind in opportunity and production, while remaining terrific when he touches the ball. The veteran has four rushing touchdowns while gaining 2.3 yards after contact per attempt and 4.6 yards per attempt overall, good for 1.2 yards per attempt over expectation. Montgomery sees only light involvement in the passing game, his 1.9 targets have not amounted to much and the team has only looked his way once in the red zone this season while Gibbs has drawn four chances in scoring territory. Overall, the football gods, any projection system, coaching, and the winds favor Gibbs again in this spot but Montgomery demands attention whenever he is available, particularly with eyes drawn elsewhere in a productive-looking game environment. This is a perfect spot for a vintage Montgomery breakout for yardage and multiple touchdowns despite limited chances. Gibbs is RB4/10 on both sites, Montgomery is RB18/11 and RB17/16.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Amon-Ra St. Brown is an elite wide receiver by any metric, his seven touchdown catches this season leads the entire slate. St. Brown checks in ranking second in points and fifth in value on DraftKings, he is WR2/2 on the FanDuel slate. He runs 29 routes and sees 8.7 targets per game on a 7.4-yard average depth of target for 35.02% of the air yards, good but not overwhelming opportunity and route-shaping numbers. St. Brown gains ground on route running skills and posts a whopping 2.55 yards per route run while drawing a 31.3% target rate on routes run and an excellent 86.89% catchable target rate on those chances.
Jameson Williams is a boom-bust deep threat, ranking 27th in points and 17th in value on DraftKings and sitting as WR27/33 on FanDuel. Williams sees 4.3 targets and has a massive 17.0-yard ADOT that puts him in scoring position on any given play over a 36.1% air yards share. The receiver has managed just 1.38 yards per route run this season, disappointing fantasy owners in the longer term but ideally setting himself up for explosive DFS production at ownership that checks in lower than it should be in a good spot. The Vikings allow 7.7 yards per pass attempt and 1.57 touchdown receptions per game, Jameson Williams has a good chance to get back on track after a disappointing Week 7 game against Tampa Bay in which drew only two targets over 29 routes run and 58 snaps.
Sam LaPorta is an elite tight end, ranking seventh in points and seventh in value on DraftKings, and eighth in value on FanDuel. He runs 25.8 routes and sees 5.1 targets per game, fair volume with such touch-demanding teammates on board. LaPorta has drawn four red zone targets this season and has two touchdown catches while averaging 4.1 catches for 48.4 yards each week. The tight end is probably a bit better of a fit in stacks as a filler option in +2 builds that can take things in less obvious directions than a straight line through wide receiver. With productive and involved running backs who score touchdowns, it is not wild to build a Goff+2 stack that utilizes Gibbs and LaPorta instead of the wide receivers.
Kalif Raymond and Isaac TeSlaa, to a lesser extent Brock Wright, are dart throws at one cheap catch for an even cheaper touchdown, they lack true appeal.
The Lions are Stack 4 by points but Stack 12 by value at big price tags on DraftKings, they play up slightly better as Stack 3 by points and Stack 8 by value on the FanDuel slate. The premium skill players involved and the high-scoring running backs can push the numbers up the board for the overall lineup build while the team’s above-average quarterback looks only OK in the middle of the positional board. This is a group that plays up as a whole but St. Brown, Gibbs, Montgomery, LaPorta, and in the right role Williams are all easily playable in standalone shares as well.
Green Bay Packers
Game Total: 44.0 / GB -13.5 (28.75)
Offense: 47.65% rush / 52.35% pass / 27.6 ppg / 3.9 ypa rush / 8.4 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.6 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 24.0 ppg / 5.06% sack / 2.46% int
Key Player: Jordan Love
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft, Josh Jacobs (on/off), Matthew Golden, Emanuel Wilson (on/off), Malik Heath (large field), Luke Musgrave (on/off), Savion Williams (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Tetairoa McMillan, Rico Dowdle (on/off), Chuba Hubbard (on/off), Jalen Coker, Xavier Legette, Ja’Tavion Sanders (on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Packers quarterback Jordan Love is an elite play, ranking seventh in raw points on DraftKings and eighth on FanDuel, and as a top-five value on both sites. While this game sits at just a 44.0-point total, the Packers draw a 28.75-point mark as the slate’s biggest favorite against a bad Carolina team. Green Bay may not have to do that much to win this game, the primary concern would be a cut into already lighter-than-average passing volume but even with that this looks like a strong play that demands shares. The Packers stack is a top-eight unit across the board on both sites. Love has been excellent, with 8.4 yards per pass attempt and a +5.5 CPOE on 30.4 attempts per game but that volume mark is short of truly prolific passing. Last week, with receiver Christian Watson returning to action, Love threw for a season-high 360 yards with three touchdowns on 29-37 passing. Green Bay gets a great matchup against a Carolina defense that ranks 24th in YPRA and 14th in YPPA, Love can coast to an easy good score, if Carolina does anything to keep up or if Green Bay simply keeps up the pressure, he could post a great one as QB7/8 and QB7/5 across DraftKings and FanDuel.
Running Backs
With Green Bay likely to put this one away fairly early, all signs point to plenty of touches for volume monster Josh Jacobs, who carries the ball 17.7 times per game and picks up another 3.3 targets each week under normal circumstances. Jacobs ranks fifth in points on DraftKings and ninth on FanDuel and is a top-15 value on both. Not only is Jacobs a true workhorse at the position, the team looks in his direction when scoring time arrives, he is currently leading the team with nine red zone targets this season. Josh Jacobs is in a great spot against a Carolina defense sitting 24th against the run at 4.6 yards per rush attempt this season, he has a chance to smash his RB5/9 and RB5/15 rankings.
Emanuel Wilson is the clear backup, averaging five carries per game. He’s not a fantasy option unless something goes awry or he happens to fall into the end zone. Wilson gains 4.6 yards per attempt but has failed to score this season in limited action.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Doubs looks like a very strong value play at a fair mid-board price on both sites that has him ranking 19th in points on DraftKings but 11th in value, and eighth in value on FanDuel. Doubs averages six targets per game while running 28.9 routes per contest to lead the team. The receiver has been productive but not special at 1.73 yards per route run this season but part of that can be pinned on a 66.67% catchable ball rate over his big 13.0-yard ADOT. Doubts is a primary red zone threat with seven total red zone targets and he has found the end zone four times this season and draws a beatable defense. Doubs is WR19/11 and WR17/8, his value pops on the blue site this week, even if the game plays a bit light on Green Bay’s side in the second half he could easily make enough value to pay off cheap salary with upside.
Christian Watson returned as if he had never left in Week 8, hauling in four catches for 89 yards on four targets over 23 routes run. The receiver is the definition of a GPP boom/bust play, ranking as a top-21 value on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Watson is a natural for big play scoring, he had an 18.3-yard average depth of target in the first game and drew a 17.5-yard mark for the season on his way to 29 catches for 620 yards and a pair of touchdowns last year. Watson caught five touchdowns while gaining just 422 yards on 28 catches in nine games the season before, when he is healthy he tends to produce and make big downfield catches. Christian Watson is WR36/21 and WR29/15 across sites, showing clear tournament value across the industry.
Matthew Golden is a secondary stacking piece, averaging 3.7 targets in his rookie season. Golden works at an 11.3-yard ADOT, joining most of the Packers primary pass-catchers far down the field on most of his routes. He ranks 33rd in points on DraftKings and 34th by value while landing lower as WR40/41 on FanDuel, making him a viable but lower-end GPP target. Golden probably functions better to round out Love +2 builds that do not include one of the more likely pass-catchers, he has failed to score a touchdown this season.
Tucker Kraft is one of the more productive available tight ends with a terrific 2.38 yards per route run that leads all pass-catchers on this team. Kraft is the best tight end play on the entire slate, ranking number one in raw points and number eight in value on DraftKings and sitting as TE1/1 on the FanDuel board. Kraft is running 28.1 routes per game, and his usage is massive, with 5.9 average targets and a staggering 11 red zone targets on the season. He’s averaging 4.2 receptions for 67 yards and has six touchdowns, putting him +2 on the field at his position. With a 20.6% target rate on routes run over 28.1 routes per contest and an 80.49% catchable target rate from Love, there is plenty of upside for Tucker Kraft on this slate, he is a high priority within Packers stacks and in standalone shares as a positional leader at tight end.
The Packers are Stack 7 by points and Stack 8 by value on DraftKings, they also rank well on FanDuel, sitting as Stack 7 by points and Stack 4 by value. Jordan Love is a premium quarterback, particularly in games where he is unleashed somewhat like we saw in Week 8. If the volume approaches that level again this week – unlikely but possible – Jordan Love could easily sail to a strong score on either site. Regardless, at least a few of the Packers skill players have a strong chance of putting up competitive fantasy scores against a low-end overall defense that is OK against the pass and bad against the run. The team’s pass-catchers are better in stacks, though the boom-or-bust big play approach makes them fine standalone GPP options at lower ownership and fair prices. Josh Jacobs is the best individual outside of stacks from this group.
Houston Texans
Game Total: 40.0 / HOU -1.5 (20.75)
Offense: 42.56% rush / 57.44% pass / 21.9 ppg / 4.3 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.8 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass / 18.9 ppg / 12.29% sack / 1.56% int
Key Player: CJ Stroud
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, Woody Marks (on/off), Nick Chubb (on/off), Dalton Schultz (Q), Jayden Higgins, Xavier Hutchinson (large field), Jaylin Noel (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin, Evan Engram, JK Dobbins (on/off), RJ Harvey (on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Texans quarterback CJ Stroud falls into a weird value hole in a low-end game against the Broncos in which neither side is appealing for DFS stacking. The Texans have managed just 21.9 points-per-game while gaining 4.3 yards per rush and 7.0 yards per pass on the season and they draw a Denver defense that allows just 3.8 YPRA and 6.6 YPPA with 18.9 points-per-game. Stroud is slightly over expectation for completions but only enough for a 0.90 CPOE mark. The quarterback has 11 touchdown passes against five interceptions while throwing for 7.0 yards per attempt on 7.6 intended air yards per attempt. The quarterback does have top receiver Nico Collins returning this week but that is unlikely to lead to significant production with just a 20.75-point implied team total. CJ Stroud is inexpensive, however, vaulting him up the value board to QB14 by points but QB5 by value on DraftKings and QB14/8 on the FanDuel board. Skinny builds chasing Stroud+Collins will be sound but obvious approaches, anything else may be unwise despite the appealing points-per-dollar at median marks.
Running Backs
It should be easy to get away from a backfield we have mostly avoided this season when Woody Marks and Nick Chubb draw a Denver defense that is stingy against the run. Marks is a mid-range running back, ranking 23rd in points and 26th in value on DraftKings. He’s averaging 8.1 carries and 2.6 targets, with four red zone targets this season. He’s been just OK with 0.40 YPA/EXP on 3.8 yards per rush attempt and gets a very tough matchup against the fifth-ranked YPRA defense.
Nick Chubb is the main back by potential touches, but just barely. Chubb checks in ranking 28th in points and 29th in value on DraftKings and sitting as RB27/28 on FanDuel. He averages 11.4 carries for 45.8 yards per game with 4.0 per attempt. Chubb has two rushing touchdowns to Marks’ single score on the ground but Marks wins 2-0 in touchdown receptions to pull slightly ahead. Neither of these running backs is appealing in this spot.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Easily the most appealing high-ceiling DFS option on either side of this game, receiver Nico Collins is an elite option at his position in his return to action, ranking as WR9 in points on DraftKings and FanDuel. but his value is 30th on DraftKings and 18th on FanDuel. Collins was in the concussion protocol last week but cleared ahead of Friday’s practice and is free of injury designation on the weekend. The receiver runs 29.6 routes and sees 7.7 targets per game on a 10.7 ADOT for a 29.2% air yards share that keeps him in big play territory. Collins has caught three touchdowns and has been targeted in the red zone five times on the year. The receiver gains 1.90 yards per route run and has been a good option when active this season, one wonders what he might produce with better than a 58.70% catchable target rate from his quarterback. Denver’s defense offers a challenge but it is slightly lessened by the absence of shutdown Surtain.
Christian Kirk is WR44/44 and WR48/49, as if to illustrate how all of the value in this offense in a bad game environment runs through Nico Collins. Kirk is ranking outside the top 40 in points and value on both sites. He plays 39.7% of snaps, runs 24.6 routes, and sees 5.3 targets, but has zero red zone targets or touchdowns in the three games he has managed to play this season. Kirk is coming off of a two-week absence, he and Collins give Stroud far better targets against a defense that is up to the task.
Jayden Higgins is a deep-threat GPP play, seeing three targets per game, including two in the red zone on the season. He has a 10.7-yard ADOT and two touchdowns over 19.6 routes run per game, drawing a 9.2% target share and returning 1.13 yards per route run but finding the end zone twice.
Xavier Hutchinson checks in as a low-volume receiver who runs 28.5 routes but sees just 3.4 targets each week with much of that created by the absence of more talented teammates in previous weeks. There is very little to work with in WR64/73 and WR61/65.
Tight end Dalton Schultz is questionable but expected to play as of Saturday night. Schultz had a big Week 7 game with 98 yards on nine catches over 10 targets on 39 routes run but he slipped to just two catches for 24 yards on three targets over 32 routes last week in a more pedestrian performance. The tight end has not scored a touchdown this season, though he has seen three red zone looks. Schultz scored twice in 17 games last year, expectations should be thin for TE16/17 and TE16/14 against a good Denver defense.
The Texans are a bad team in a bad spot with one good player facing a tough but somewhat diminished defense. Like Vegas, we still lean strongly toward a low-scoring game environment that does not produce much, though CJ Stroud helps for DFS quality with a low price. A Stroud+Collins skinny build is a path to success, though that is the most common approach by far when considering any Texans at all. This is Stack 19 by points and Stack 17 by value on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week.
Indianapolis Colts
Game Total: 50.0 / IND -3.0 (26.5)
Offense: 45.44% rush / 54.56% pass / 33.8 ppg / 5.0 ypa rush / 8.4 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass / 25.0 ppg / 7.43% sack / 1.82% int
Key Player: Daniel Jones
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Jonathan Taylor, Tyler Warren, Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, Ashton Dulin (very large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf, Calvin Austin III, Jonnu Smith, Pat Freiermuth,
Game Notes:
Quarterback
At another highly-ranked total against an easily beatable Steelers defense, Daniel Jones and his Colts look like a solid stacking option once again in Week 9. Unbelievably, Jones has been tremendous all season in his new home. The quarterback ranks among league leaders in numerous categories while throwing for an outrageous 8.5 yards per pass attempt and 257.75 yards per game. Jones throws the ball 30.38 times, the volume is the only negative talking point available as the quarterback is required to feed the ball to superstar running back Jonathan Taylor nearly 18 times per game. Jones has been tremendously accurate this season, completing passes at a rate 7.0 points over expectation by CPOE and he pads scoring with regular production on the ground and four rushing touchdowns this season. Jones does well via the pass, he bends slates when he also scores on the ground. The quarterback is QB8 by points on both sites, he is QB12 by value on DraftKings and QB13 by value on FanDuel and plays up as the head of a highly-ranked scoring stack.
Running Backs
Jonathan Taylor is a superstar at the position who ranks as RB2 by points on both sites but takes a dip by value at a hefty price tag. Taylor is a $9,800 option on FanDuel and costs a full $2,100 more than the most expensive quarterback on the FanDuel slate at a whopping $11,000. Taylor has been worth it in 2025, he has a dozen rushing touchdowns while gaining a ridiculous 5.9 yards per rush attempt on 17.9 carries per game. The running back is involved in the passing attack as well, he has two touchdown catches and gains 7.6 yards per target over 3.4 targets per game. Taylor is a premium option both in and out of stacks in Week 9.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Michael Pittman Jr. is a fair play at wide receiver, primarily in +1 or +2 Colts stacks. Pittman ranks 16th in points and 23rd in value on DraftKings while slotting in as WR14/25 on the FanDuel slate. He runs 29.2 routes and sees seven targets per game, good for a 23.3% share on routes run while putting up 1.91 yards per route. Pittman has drawn six red zone targets this season and has scored six times on the year while drawing a 21.29% air yards share to sit second on the team. Pittman Jr. and his mates get to attack the 24th-ranked YPPA defense that yields 7.5 yards per pass attempt and a huge 1.86 passing touchdowns per game.
Tyler Warren is an elite tight end, ranking fourth in points and 10th in value on DraftKings and beating those marks as TE2/3 on the FanDuel slate. Warren has been tremendous in his rookie campaign. He runs 28.6 routes and sees 6.3 targets, with nine red zone targets this season. The rookie has only caught three touchdowns so far, they can’t all be winners, but he provides major scoring potential while working at a 6.3-yard ADOT for 15.72% of the air yards. Warren is averaging 4.6 catches for 61.5 yards per game and has three touchdowns while contributing an excellent 2.15 yards per route run to sit second behind a couple of low-volume big-play pass-catchers. Warren is a go-to option at his position both in and out of stacks this week.
Josh Downs is a solid value, ranking 35th in points and 20th in value on DraftKings but as just WR38/36 on FanDuel. Downs runs 21 routes and sees 5.3 targets each week while working more in a possession role at a 7.0-yard ADOT. Downs has drawn six red zone targets this season and has found paydirt twice, his 13.50% air yards share is a slightly limiting factor and his 1.74 yards per route run is underwhelming, making him more playable than priority even in a great matchup.
While Downs is just playable, Alec Pierce is a boom-bust GPP play with explosive potential on light volume. Pierce is one of our favorites on his big play nature alone, the receiver sees a ridiculous 22.4-yard average depth of target on 5.3 chances per game this season for a tremendous 34.1% air yards share. Pierce has a 33.3% explosive play rate on receptions but has somehow failed to score a touchdown. The ICBM of a receiver saw similar target shaping last season and delivered seven touchdowns with 824 yards on just 37 catches over 69 targets, the scoring is coming. Pierce checks into Week 9 ranking 37th in points and 33rd in value on DraftKings and as WR30 by points but WR22 by value on FanDuel where he finds his upside.
The Colts are a fairly high-priority stack again in Week 9 against a defense that gives up 4.3 yards per rush and 7.5 yards per pass attempt and 25.0 points-per-game this season. Daniel Jones ranks well for scoring, if not as strongly for value, while all of the teams skill players fit into both stacks and individual roles at a variety of prices. Jonathan Taylor is the most easily utilized outside of stacks, while Tyler Warren has major upside in standalone shares as well. Among the wide receivers, the inexpensive nuclear option that is Alec Pierce has cheap big-play potential in any format.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Game Total: 44.0 / JAC -2.5 (23.25)
Offense: 39.08% rush / 60.92% pass / 20.9 ppg / 4.7 ypa rush / 6.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.0 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass / 25.7 ppg / 5.98% sack / 1.27% int
Key Player: Trevor Lawrence
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Travis Etienne Jr., Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, Dyami Brown, Hunter Long, Bhayshul Tuten (on/off), Austin Trammell (very large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Brock Bowers, Ashton Jeanty, Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, Jack Bech (large field), Raheem Mostert (on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence righted the ship somewhat for the season and is now averaging 231.43 yards per game, though he still sits at just 6.2 yards per pass attempt. Lawrence is a mid-range quarterback, ranking 13th in points and seventh in value on DraftKings, and seventh in value on FanDuel. His stack is 14th in points and seventh in value on DraftKings and sits as Stack 12/9 on FanDuel. Lawrence is averaging 37 pass attempts for 231.4 yards, but has a -6.9 CPOE on the season, the lack of accuracy has been the primary downfall for him and his premium pass-catcher. Lawrence gains a bit of value on the ground, he adds 4.2 carries for 16.1 yards per game and has run the ball in twice this season but his overall scoring is light with just nine touchdown passes against five interceptions. In a matchup against a mid-level Las Vegas defense, the quarterback offers a bit of hope to achieve value but is more a mechanism through which we hope a bit of scoring upside will finally find former standout receiver Brian Thomas Jr. who has struggled all season. Lawrence is QB13 by points but QB7 by value in a playable spot on both sites this week.
Running Backs
Travis Etienne Jr. is a strong running back, ranking 12th in points on both sites while sitting fifth in value on DraftKings and ninth in value on FanDuel. Etienne averages 13.8 carries and 3.1 targets per game, gaining a tremendous 5.3 yards per rush attempt and 3.6 yards per target this season. Etienne has drawn four red zone targets, the team is not afraid to look his way in scoring territory and he has a touchdown catch to go with his two rushing touchdowns. The light scoring despite steady numbers up and down the field have been the one thing holding Etienne Jr. back from true star-caliber production this season, he looks excellent when he finds paint. Etienne Jr. is RB12/5 and RB12/9 across sites and is playable in and out of stacks though he faces a defense allowing just 4.0 yards per rush attempt to sit 10th in football.
Bayshul Tuten is a low-volume backup unlikely to find any fantasy value.
Receivers & Tight Ends
With Travis Hunter hitting IR all eyes turn back toward Brian Thomas Jr. who has been one of the larger busts in season-long fantasy football in 2025. Thomas Jr. was highly drafted and has managed to deliver just one touchdown over seven games. While Hunter was not exactly drawing massive volume or producing huge scoring, his absence leaves a handful of chances up for grabs, a few of which at least should find the team’s go-to receiver. Thomas Jr. gains just 1.42 yards per route run over 36.7 route per game but his 12.6-yard ADOT and 32.7% air yards share keep him in big play scoring territory most of the time. Brian Thomas Jr. is WR11/16 and WR11/11 across DraftKings and FanDuel this week.
Parker Washington is an elite value play at just $3,700 on DraftKings in the shorter receiver room. Washington ranks 39th in points but seventh in value on DraftKings, and 16th in value on FanDuel. The receiver runs 22.5 routes and sees five targets per game overall with a big leap to 10 targets last week. Washington gained 52 yards while catching 10 of those targets, he gained another 10 yards on three rush attempts and has dynamic play-making ability. The receiver is a solid deep threat with a 13.7 ADOT on limited overall volume in a good matchup in Week 9. Washington is WR39/7 and WR35/16 across sites and looks playable at what will hopefully be very low tournament exposure in public lineups.
Brown is also an OK value proposition on both sites, ranking 42nd in points and 24th in value on DraftKings, and 32nd by value on FanDuel. Brown has seen on-and-off involvement in the passing game, running 25.6 routes and seeing 4.5 targets on average. The lightly utilized receiver surprises somewhat with six red zone targets but has managed just one touchdown this season. Brown is another deep threat with a 13.0-yard ADOT on his low volume chances, he draws just a 10.70% target share on routes run while posting 1.26 yards per route. Brown is just WR42/24 and WR42/32 but those are playable value marks on both sites in stacks or as a last man in at low pricing.
Hunter Long has a pair of touchdowns this season but does not rank like a strong option. Long is a GPP punt, ranking as the TE22 in points and TE20 in value on DraftKings and TE19/17 on FanDuel. He runs 15.1 routes and sees two targets per game, peaking at three targets for the season, though he hit that mark in four of the team’s seven games.
The Jaguars are a mixer with a bit of potential upside around skill players who can break big days. Jacksonville rates as Stack 14 by points and Stack 7 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 12/9 on the FanDuel slate with Trevor Lawrence + Brian Thomas Jr. stacks as the most obvious high-end approach. +2 builds that involve Etienne Jr. or one of the lower-end pass-catchers are good paths to differentiation from that point. Thomas Jr. and Etienne Jr. are the two playable pieces in standalone shares outside of dart throws at the value scores on the others.
Kansas City Chiefs
Game Total: 52.5 / KC -1.0 (26.75)
Offense: 43.19% rush / 56.81% pass / 26.8 ppg / 4.5 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.5 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass / 18.3 ppg / 7.04% sack / 2.79% int
Key Player: Patrick Mahomes
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt, Hollywood Brown, Brashard Smith (on/off), JuJu Smith-Schuster (large field), Noah Gray (on/off), Tyquan Thornton (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: James Cook III, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Elijah Moore, Dawson Knox (0n/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
The top-ranked quarterback on the slate in raw points on both sites, Mahomes is a potentially crucial play once again in Week 9. His value is better on FanDuel as the QB1 than on DraftKings as the QB6 by points-per-dollar but he looks tremendous across the board at the helm of a top-six option in both points and value as a stack on both sites. Mahomes is averaging 262.3 passing yards on 35.2 attempts steady production on strong volume that has led to 17 touchdown passes against just four interceptions, with most of that work coming in the absence of a few premium pass-catchers. Despite a surprisingly low -1.50 CPOE mark, Mahomes averages 7.4 yards per pass attempt on 7.4 intended air yards and he remains capable on the ground with 6.1 yards per rush attempt and four rushing touchdowns padding scoring even further. Mahomes has one of the top projections on both sites at the top of a highly playable stack with great depth and value, he is a strong consideration across the industry in Week 9.
Running Backs
Kareem Hunt projects as a top-16 running back in raw points and a top-12 value play on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s operating on a limited 23.5% snap share, averaging 7.7 rush attempts and 1.1 targets per game for 4.0 yards per rush and 6.3 yard per target. Hunt is a lightly involved pass-catcher, his value primarily comes up close with short yardage touchdowns, he has four scores on the ground this season and a fifth through the passing game, he is incredibly touchdown-dependent on any slate and ranks mostly behind Chiefs pass-catchers as RB16 by points but RB6 by value on DraftKings, he is just RB15/12 on the FanDuel slate. Hunt has been moderately efficient with his light work, posting a 0.83 YPA/EXP and this is a tremendous matchup against a 32nd-ranked Buffalo defense yielding 5.5 yards per rush attempt and 1.43 rushing touchdowns per game.
Brashard Smith: A deeper, low-cost option, Smith is the 25th-ranked running back in value on DraftKings and 27th on FanDuel. He’s only playing 11.1% of snaps while seeing 3.1 rush attempts and 2.3 targets per game but carried the ball 14 times for just 38 yards two weeks ago and will play as the direct backup with Isiah Pacheco out of action.
Receivers & Tight Ends
The return of star Rashee Rice kicked the Chiefs offense into another gear, Rice is a weapon in the passing game who lands as a strong option in this robust game environment in Week 9. The Chiefs face a Buffalo pass defense that gives up 6.7 yards per attempt to rank 9th, they generate pressure at a 27.0% rate and get to the quarterback with regularity, but Rice will be far downfield by then. The receiver caught seven of 10 targets for 42 yards and two touchdowns in his Week 7 return and followed it by catching all nine of his Week 8 targets for 93 yards and a touchdown, with another 12 yards on two rush attempts. A fully healthy Rice is deadly in this offense, he is WR4 by points on both sites. While Rice dips to WR25 by value at $7,600 on DraftKings, he remains a top option as WR3 by value despite an $8,200 FanDuel price.
Xavier Worthy is no slouch in the 1A role behind Rice. Worthy exploded onto the scene with game-breaking ability last season and he plays up for potential to break DFS slates as the field trends toward Rice in their builds. Worthy has one touchdown catch this season and has failed to gain more than the 83 yards he posted on five catches in Week 4. Worthy picks up additional chances with gadget plays on rushing attempts, averaging 1.0 carries per game for 11.0 yards per rush attempt, though he has failed to break one for a big scoring play. The receiver slots in as WR12 by points and WR6 by value on DraftKings where his upside really pops, he is WR12/12 on the FanDuel slate.
Kelce is an elite tight end, ranking fifth on DraftKings and sixth on FanDuel in positional points and fourth in value on both sites. The veteran is running 32.5 routes per game, drawing six targets per game, and has seen seven red zone targets on his way to three touchdown catches so far this season. Kelce is averaging 4.6 receptions for 59.2 yards per game while drawing a 17.7% target share on route run and posting 1.82 yards per route run. There have been very few weeks in DFS history in which Travis Kelce has not been a good option, that does not change this week.
Hollywood Brown ranks as a mid-tier value on both DraftKings and FanDuel and is part of the top-ranked Kansas City stack, making him a dart-throw option despite a dip in expected volume in the ongoing sense. Brown played 26 snaps with the offense in Week 8 and 27 in Week 7, down from snap counts into the mid-30s and beyond earlier in the season. While Brown picked up two catches on four targets for 14 yards and scored in Week 7 he failed to catch his lone target while running 19 routes in last week’s game and could be light on chances again with the team at full strength. Brown is more dart thrown than reliable veteran as WR51/56 and WR51/53.
JuJu Smith-Schuster and Tyquan Thornton are extremely thin options who could see one or two big play chance each. Thornton has three touchdowns that have come on a massive 25.0-yard average depth of target that still gives him 33.11% of the air yards despite limited recent volume and just 3.4 targets per game overall. Smith-Schuster has one touchdown on 3.6 targets per game and a more limited 5.9-yard ADOT, between the two the big play nature of Thornton has to be more appealing as a dart but neither is at all reliable.
Noah Gray is a low-cost punt at tight end that is somewhat involved while creating a major point of differentiation in Kansas City stacks and needing just one cheap touchdown catch to move positional scoring in his direction. Gray is ranking as just the 25th best value tight end on DraftKings and 32nd on FanDuel, he is not showing much beyond cheap chances. Gray is on the field for 40.5% of snaps and runs 18.7 routes, but only draws 2.5 targets per game.
The Chiefs are a premium stack in Week 9 in what could turn into the game of the week against the rival Bills. Kansas City has major weapons in the passing game with Patrick Mahomes leading the way as the slate’s most highly-projected player. Mahomes+1 or +2 builds are entirely worthwhile with the Chiefs as Stack 6 by points and Stack 5 by value on DraftKings and Stack 6/3 on the FanDuel slate.
Las Vegas Raiders
Game Total: 44.0 / LV +2.5 (20.75)
Offense: 43.26% rush / 66.18% pass / 14.7 ppg / 3.9 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.9 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 22.1 ppg / 3.02% sack / 3.89% int
Key Player: Geno Smith
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, Ashton Jeanty (on/off), Jack Bech (large field), Raheem Mostert (on/off), Michael Mayer (on/off), Dont’e Thornton Jr. (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Travis Etienne Jr., Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, Dyami Brown, Hunter Long
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Geno Smith is a low-end quarterback, ranking 19th in points and 11th in value on DraftKings, and 17th in value on FanDuel. His stack is 13th in points and 10th in value on DraftKings and sits 16/14 on the FanDuel slate, with a bit of a pump-up from skill players. Smith is averaging just 28.8 attempts and 202.4 yards with a -1.3 CPOE on the season, gaining 7.0 yards per pass attempt while throwing seven touchdowns against 10 interceptions. Geno Smith and the low-end Raiders face a decent Jacksonville defense that is sixth in YPRA and 14th in YPPA, there is only light DraftKings value appeal, if that.
Running Backs
Rookie Ashton Jeanty gains 4.0 yards per rush attempt and is up to 15.9 carries per game with a bit of added volume coming from 2.9 targets per contest. Jeanty slides into Week 9 ranking ninth in points and 12th in value on DraftKings, and sixth in value on FanDuel. The running back averages 63.5 yards per game on the ground and puts 12.3 yards on top of that on receptions, with touchdown-scoring potential in both facets of the game. Jeanty has three rushing touchdowns and a pair of touchdown catches to lead the team in scoring this season. As RB9/12 and RB10/6 across sites, Jeanty is the most easily playable piece of the Raiders stack as his production does not rely on the lousy quarterback.
Mostert is a deep GPP punt, averaging four carries, he would have to break a massive single-play score to create any upside at all.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Brock Bowers has been out since Week 4, his return bodes well for overall production for Las Vegas, but Bowers was limited early in the season with just 56.3 yards per game and zero touchdowns across the first four weeks. Not much of that was on Bowers, the terrific tight end still delivered 2.08 yards per route run in early action this season, he should step into immediate volume and scoring potential and lands as TE2/3 and TE4/9 on this week’s slate.
Meyers is an OK wide receiver option whose quality takes a hit from a 69.77% catchable target rate from his quarterback. Meyers is currently ranking 25th in points and 22nd in value on DraftKings, and is an elite sixth in value despite landing 26th by points on FanDuel. Meyers gains 1.75 yards per route run over 31.3 routes per game, the team leader in routes by a fair margin. The receiver sees 7.2 targets per game for a 21.6% target share on routes run, also a team-leading mark, but he has yet to score a touchdown this season.
Tre Tucker has four touchdown catches to Meyers’ zero, though he famously delivered three of those in one game back in Week 3. Tucker has not been in the end zone since that game, nor has he cleared the 70-yard mark. The receiver is a lousy mixer as WR40/47 and WR39/30, though he has big play potential on an 8.9-yard ADOT.
The Raiders are a low-end option that rates at or below the middle of the board as Stack 13/10 and Stack 16/14 across sites, though Bowers, Meyers, and Jeanty have some individual upside with Tucker acting as more of a dart toss.
Los Angeles Chargers
Game Total: 43.5 / LAC -10.0 (26.75)
Offense: 38.59% rush / 61.41% pass / 23.5 ppg / 4.9 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.9 ypa rush / 7.8 ypa pass / 28.8 ppg / 6.35% sack / 1.69% int
Key Player: Justin Herbert
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, Oronde Gadsden II, Kiman Vidal (on/off), Tre’ Harris (large field), Tyler Conklin (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Elic Ayomanor, Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears, Chimere Dike, Chig Okonkwo
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Justin Herbert is a star-caliber quarterback in the midst of a strong season facing one of football’s worst defenses in Week 9, an outstanding mix for success. Herbert is QB3 by points and QB9 by value on DraftKings, he shines even brighter as QB3 by points and QB4 by value on the FanDuel slate. Herbert draws a Titans defense allowing 4.9 yards per rush attempt to sit 26th and 7.8 yards per pass to land 28th while giving up 1.75 rushing and 1.5 passing touchdowns each week. Herbert leads one of the most appealing, but also probably popular, stacks of the week, he is a good option on both sites.
Running Backs
Running back Kimani Vidal is a strong positional play who slots into the team’s starting role at a cheap price in Week 9. Vidal checks in at $6,300 on DraftKings and $7,700 on FanDuel after putting up a huge 117-yard performance on 23 carries with a touchdown along the way in Week 8 against Minnesota. The performance was Vidal’s second game with more than 100 rushing yards in three weeks, with a dip to just nine carries for 20 yards in between that and a Week 6 game that saw him rush for 124 yards on 18 carries against terrible Miami. The running back averages 5.2 yards per rush attempt with 2.3 yards after contact per attempt, he has a single rushing touchdown with volume only just picking up with the absence of teammates above him on the depth chart. While he will be a chalky value running back as RB11/14 and RB9/13, Vidal seems well worth consideration on both sites again this week against a Titans defense that has been gouged by running backs throughout the year.
Jaret Patterson was elevated from the practice squad again this week, he gained 30 yards on 11 carries last week but is an unlikely contributor.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Ladd McConkey has touchdown catches in three of the last four games after starting the season with a four-game scoring drought. The receiver is potentially elite, ranking 10th in points and third in value on DraftKings, but 19th in value on FanDuel. McConkey runs 38.3 routes per game to lead tie Quentin Johnston for the team lead, drawing 8.5 targets per game to sit second in the group. McConkey’s 1.94 yards per route run also sits second on the team, landing behind Keenan Allen’s ridiculous 2.24 yprr mark. McConkey has eight red zone targets, tying him with Oronde Gadsden II for second on the team, an emerging theme, though Gadsden II got to that mark in just six games. McConkey is averaging 5.3 catches for 58.5 yards per game and 6.9 per target on an 8.8-yard ADOT and has three touchdowns.
Keenan Allen checks in as WR22/29 and WR20/17 across sites this week. The veteran has been productive with 2.24 yards per route run on 28.7 routes per game, though he is technically the least utilized among the three receiver weapons. Allen leads the team with 11 red zone targets, three more than the next-closest option. Allen has delivered four touchdown catches on an 8.4-yard average depth of target for 27.45% of the air yards. Allen is an easily playable option across sites in +1 or +2 builds, he also functions as a lower-cost angle to under-owned touchdown potential.
As WR28/43 and WR24/39 across sites, Quentin Johnston dips down the board slightly by comparison, though minor tweaks representing any-given-slate variance could easily lead him to the top of this team’s group of pass-catchers. Johnston gains 1.51 yards per route run over his 38.4 routes per game while drawing a 16.0% target share on those routes but just a 63.83% catchable target rate on his deep 11.8-yard ADOT. Johnston is a viable deep threat with multi-touchdown upside, he is not nearly as separated from teammates as his ranking may suggest.
Oronde Gadsden II has come on strong in recent weeks, posting touchdowns in back-to-back games. Gadsden II caught five of five targets for 77 yards and a score last week and had seven catches in each of the two games before that performance. The tight end gained 164 yards and scored in a big Week 7 game against the Colts, he has significant upside for a touchdown if nothing else and should continue to see volume around his current 5.5 targets per game. Gadsden is TE6 by points but TE18 by value on DraftKings at $5,300. At $6,400 on FanDuel he is a more realistic TE5/6 across sites.
Tre’ Harris and Tyler Conklin are no more than positional mixers, though Harris has a fair 8.3-yard ADOT with a touchdown on the board.
The Chargers are a strong option again in Week 9, slotting in as Stack 9 by points and 9 by value on DraftKings and as Stack 9/10 on the FanDuel slate. The team offers four premium pass catchers to go into various combinations around their high-end quarterback and they thrown in a good value-based running back play to add value. All of the team’s primary skill players also function in standalone roles outside of stacks.
Los Angeles Rams
Game Total: 43.5 / LAR -14.0 (28.75)
Offense: 40.79% rush / 59.21% pass / 25.0 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 7.7 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.0 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass / 26.1 ppg / 6.97% sack / 1.76% int
Key Player: Matthew Stafford
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Kyren Williams (on/off), Jordan Whittington (on/off), Tyler Higbee, Blake Corum (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara (Q), Rashid Shaheed (Q), Juwan Johnson, Devaughn Vele (on/off), Taysom Hill (on/off), Brandin Cooks (on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Veteran Matthew Stafford is QB9 by points on both sites and ranks lower by value overall at fairly high costs. Stafford helms an elite Week 9 stack that is currently ranking first in points and 14th in value while tying for second on the board with a 28.75-point implied team total. He’s averaging 34.5 attempts for 266.5 yards with a +1.9 CPOE while gaining 7.7 yards per pass attempt and throwing 17 touchdown passes against just two interceptions. Stafford has a major connection with Puka Nacua and he has developed a quick one with veteran Davante Adams, to no one’s surprise. The trio has been elite, putting together a collective eight touchdowns, though six of those belong to Adams. Stafford has been excellent with more than 20 fantasy points per game this season, he faces a New Orleans defense that ranks 10th with 4.0 yards allowed per rush but just 23rd at 7.4 yards per pass attempt. New Orleans also yields 1.75 passing touchdowns to sit in the bottom-third of the NFL this season, creating an excellent chance for production for Stafford and his Rams.
Running Backs
Volume-heavy Kyren Williams checks in as RB6/8 on both sites and is, as usual, a fine option. Williams gains more yards per attempt this season with 4.4, alleviating some of the nightmare that was his 2024 volume requirement, without which he simply could not create fantasy scoring. This season, Williams has been more productive on fewer chances and has gained 0.5 yards over expectation per rush attempt, though he has been limited to just two rushing touchdowns. Williams gains value in the passing game where he has drawn 3.7 targets per game and has found three touchdown catches on the year. Williams is easy to play in standalone shares and his passing game uptick and generally better production put him into the mix in Rams stacks as well.
Blake Corum remains the clear backup, averaging 5.8 carries. He is not relevant, landing outside of the top-33 by value on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Puka Nacua is an elite wide receiver, ranking third in points and 12th in value on DraftKings. Nacua runs 29.8 routes and sees 10.8 targets per game, among the leaders in overall passing game volume. The wide receiver has two touchdown catches and five red zone targets this season and is averaging nine catches for 102.6 yards per game for the season as a whole. Nacua sees a 27.3% target share and Stafford delivers the ball with an 84.62% catchable target rate, leading to an unbelievable 3.44 yards per route run. Puka Nacua is WR3/12 and WR3/4 across DraftKings and FanDuel, he is a much a go-to option against a highly-beatable defense this week as he is any other.
Davante Adams is also an elite wide receiver and his emergent connection with fellow old timer Matthew Stafford has resulted in six touchdowns over their first seven games together. Adams gains 1.87 yards per route run over 32.9 routes per game to lead the team in the latter category. Adams operates on a 12.0-yard average depth of target that puts him further downfield than Nacua most of the time, opening up big scoring play potential for the veteran. Davante Adams is WR5 by points on both sites this week while landing as WR28 by value on DraftKings and WR14 by value on FanDuel. Adams provides nearly unrivaled scoring potential, the receiver has a massive 16 red zone targets and a 37.1% air yards share this year.
Tyler Higbee is a mid-range tight end, ranking 20th in points and 21st in value on DraftKings. He runs 19.6 routes and sees 3.5 targets, with four red zone targets with one touchdown so far this season.
A deep punt, Jordan Whittington sees just 2.4 targets per game for 0.92 yards per route run over 18.9 routes per game.
The Rams come in with one of the most appealing implied team totals on the board in Week 9, they are Stack 1 by points on both sites but slip somewhat by points-per-dollar value. The team offers major options in the top two wide receivers in any format, both Nacua and Adams provide major potential on any slate via both PPR scoring and touchdown/yardage points. Kyren Williams sees volume and production and is a good play both in and out of stacks this season, and Higbee is a moderately playable tight end. While the team draws fairly straight lines and lacks the depth of combinations that other stacks may offer, they are easy to reach for scoring upside.
Minnesota Vikings
Game Total: 48.5 / MIN +9.5 (19.5)
Offense: 38.25% rush / 61.75% pass / 22.1 ppg / 4.3 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.0 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass / 21.6 ppg / 8.81% sack / 2.94% int
Key Player: JJ McCarthy
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones Sr. (on/off), TJ Hockenson, Jordan Mason (on/off), Jalen Nailor (large field), Adam Thielen (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams, David Montgomery (on/off), Sam LaPorta, Kalif Raymond (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
The NFL can be a cruel league and missed time can pile up fast. Vikings second-year quarterback JJ McCarthy returns to the starting role in Week 9 after being out of action since 47 snaps into the team’s Week 2 matchup. This absence comes on the heels of missing his entire rookie season in 2024, meaning McCarthy’s last truly meaningful ongoing football was nearly two years ago. The quarterback threw for 143 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in Week 1 on 13-20 passing against the Bears. He completed 11 of 21 passes for 158 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions in Week 2 and then was gone. While McCarthy has major weapons in the offense, it is difficult to gin up much trust in QB17/10 on DraftKings and QB17/16 on FanDuel.
Running Backs
Veteran Aaron Jones Sr. is a mid-range running back, ranking 20th in points and 19th in value on DraftKings and sitting as RB20/17 on the FanDuel slate. Jones has seen minimal action this season, he was out from Week 2 through last week and has carried the ball a total of 18 times for a total of 61 yards this season. Jones should see involvement in the rushing and passing attacks, though he will be competing for snaps and touches with younger more explosive Jordan Mason, who slots in as RB25/30 and RB25/29 but could easily push past the veteran even if Jones Sr. out-snaps him again in Week 9. Neither running back has much appeal with a bit of a share and low expectations against a Lions defense that limits opponents to 4.0 yards per rush attempt.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Minnesota’s premium player remains receiver Justin Jefferson who slots in as WR6 by points on DraftKings and WR7 by points on FanDuel. The pricey star slides to just WR36 and WR23 across sites by points-per-dollar value at a slightly lower than usual projection with the switch to McCarthy and a matchup against a quality defense that sits 12th with just 6.8 yards allowed per pass attempt. Still, Jefferson is a leaders with 2.38 yards per route run on the season on a 29.9% target share over 36.1 routes per game. The receiver has managed just a single touchdown this year but one has to believe more scoring is inbound if he sees better than a 65.08% catchable target rate.
Jordan Addison is a good 1A-type option behind Jefferson. Addison slides into Week 9 ranking 31st in points and 49th in value on DraftKings and as WR33/48 on FanDuel. He sees 7.5 targets and has seven red zone targets on the season, though that has translated to just one touchdown catch in four games. Addison remains a deep threat with a 12.6-yard average depth of target for a 22.5% air yards share but it comes in a somewhat low-end matchup. With 1.93 yards per route run on 40.0 routes per game in his limited action, Addison is doing his part in fighting through a 73.33% catchable target rate, it will be interesting to see how he jibes with McCarthy in the young quarterback’s return.
TJ Hockenson is just TE14/9 on DraftKings and TE15/16 on the FanDuel slate. Hockenson is an involved option at the tight end spot with 5.1 targets per game on a 4.5-yard average depth of target this season. The pass-catcher has caught just one touchdown on his way to just 1.0 yards per route run over 31.9 routes per game. At a fair price, Hockenson is a viable option but the presence of a big question mark at quarterback does not mix well with his limited production.
Jalen Nailor is WR68/69 and WR65/64 across sites, he is no more than a dart throw at touchdown upside. Nailor’s eight red zone targets on the season draw the eye but only two of those have come over the last three games. Nailor is a superior option to veteran Adam Thielen who is barely involved in the offense this season.
The Vikings offense checks in as just Stack 17/18 on both sites this week with McCarthy contributing more questions than answers to this projections mix. The team’s 19.5-point implied total in Vegas in a bad matchup is a good decision-point, skipping the young signal-caller is for the best and there should be expected limitations on all of the Vikings skill players.
New England Patriots
Game Total: 45.5 / NE -5.5 (25.5)
Offense: 47.22% rush / 52.78% pass / 26.6 ppg / 3.9 ypa rush / 8.9 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.6 ypa rush / 6.2 ypa pass / 22.o ppg / 8.04% sack / 3.28% int
Key Player: Drake Maye
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, Hunter Henry, TreVeyon Henderson (on/off), Mack Hollins, DeMario Douglas, Austin Hooper (on/off), Kyle Williams (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts Sr., Tyler Allgeier
Game Notes:
Quarterback
New England quarterback Drake Maye projects as a top-five quarterback in raw points and is a top-six value on both DraftKings and FanDuel, making his stack very viable in Week 9. Maye’s fantasy floor is padded by his rushing, as he averages 6.3 rush attempts for 31.2 yards per game on top of his 253.2 passing yards and he has run the ball in for two scores this season. Overall, Maye’s breakout season has been the product of tremendous passing and a major leap in quality. Maye has completed passes at an impressive 10.8 points over expectation by CPOE while throwing for 15 touchdowns and just three interceptions over a tremendous 9.0 yards per pass attempt. Drake Maye is a top-5 quarterback in fantasy scoring this season, though he draws a Falcons defense that has been tough on passers at just 6.2 yards allowed per attempt, the second-ranked mark on the board. The Patriots stack could get a bump in the rush game against the Falcons 24th-ranked mark of 4.6 yards per rush attempt but this will be the first true measure of TreVeyon Henderson in that spot. Maye and the pass-catchers are the best path to success with this mid-board stack that rates better for value than scoring on both sites.
Running Backs
TreVeyon Henderson is RB15 by points but RB7 by value on DraftKings, he is RB16/5 on the FanDuel slate. Henderson picks up a major opportunity this week, with teammate Rhamondre Stevenson out of action. The running back should have the backfield opportunities mostly to himself, he draws an average of just 6.6 rush attempts and 2.3 targets per game while gaining 4.3 yards per rush attempt and 5.5 yards per target on the limited chances. The rookie was taken 38th overall in the 2nd round in this year’s draft, the Patriots have plenty of draft capital invested in his success, he could be in for a big week against a compliant defense after gaining 75 yards on 10 carries last week.
Terrell Jennings should serve as the backup as the only functional option. Jennings gains 4.7 yards per attempt on extremely limited action this season, appearing in Weeks 6-8 so far but playing a total of 13 snaps. Jennings carried the ball twice for 15 yards last week over five snaps with the offense and gained 18 yards on five carries over eight snaps the week before. There is not much to see.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs projects as a solid wide receiver after climbing the board for quality over the first half of the season. Diggs’ value differs by site: he’s the fifth-best value on FanDuel but just 15th on DraftKings, while ranking as WR14 by points on DraftKings and WR16 on FanDuel. The matchup against the second-ranked Atlanta pass defense is extremely difficult. Diggs’ usage is also a bit of a red flag, with a short-area 7.7 ADOT on his 6.1 average targets and a very thin 20.1 routes run per game. Diggs can disappear if he does not see a significant target rate, that mark sits at 22.3% targets on routes run for the season, leading to a fantastic-looking 2.92 yards per route run that can be deceptive in the absence of context. Diggs is a good-not-great option and plays better in stacks than out of them in Week 9.
Kayshon Boutte is the team’s field-stretcher who has become it’s most consistent scoring target with a touchdown streak extending back three games. Boutte has five touchdowns on the season, with four of them coming in this three-game stretch. The receiver is sporting a 17.0-yard ADOT and a 28.7% air yards share. His value rankings are poor on both DraftKings and FanDuel, making him a GPP-focused flier in this low-rent matchup given an average of just 3.8 targets per game but 2.24 yards per route run on the season.
DeMario Douglas is playing just 19.9% of snaps and averages three targets per game. His rankings are outside the top 50 in points and value on both sites, making him an easy fade outside of stack padding. Mack Hollins sees the field, but does almost nothing with it, averaging just 2.6 targets and 2.2 receptions per game. Each of the receivers has caught two touchdown passes on the season, they are not irrelevant as much as they are less likely.
Tight end Hunter Henry is the true second option in the passing attack, drawing 4.6 targets per game. Henry sees his main potential through scoring chances, his eight red zone targets tie Stefon Diggs for the team lead and has four touchdown catches this season while gaining 1.62 yards per route run. Henry is TE9/5 and TE9/7 across sites this week, putting him firmly in play.
The Patriots are Stack 12 by points and Stack 6 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 13 by points and Stack 6 by value on FanDuel and look like a potentially key option at good prices on both sites. TreVeyon Henderson is sure to be a popular value option at running back but the rest of the team is less likely to explode into public shares against the mid-board Falcons defense despite a reasonable 25.5-point implied team total
New Orleans Saints
Game Total: 43.5 / NO +14.0 (14.75)
Offense: 38.98% rush / 61.02% pass / 16.0 ppg / 3.8 ypa rush / 6.0 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.9 ypa rush / 6.4 ypa pass / 16.7 ppg / 9.22% sack / 1.56% int
Key Player: Tyler Shough
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara (Q), Rashid Shaheed (Q), Juwan Johnson, Taysom Hill (on/off), Devaughn Vele, Brandin Cooks
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Kyren Williams (on/off), Jordan Whittington (on/off), Tyler Higbee, Blake Corum (on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Rookie Tyler Shough was drafted 40th overall in the 2nd round out of Louisville in this year’s draft and now finds himself thrust into the starting job in Week 9. Shough took over midway through last week’s matchup with the team finally seeing enough of Spencer Rattler. The rookie threw 30 passes, completing 17 of them, over the 39 snaps he played. Shough was less than impressive with 128 passing yards and an interception in the partial-game action, giving him 4.0 yards per attempt on the season despite a solid 8.6 intended air yards. Shough has solid weapons with Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Juwan Johnson, not to mention veteran Alvin Kamara as a safety net, but it remains to be seen what he can do with them. Shough is QB221/18 and QB21/21.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara gains just 3.6 yards per rush attempt on 12.5 carries per game this season, adding 3.9 targets per game for 4.7 yards per target though he has not scored in the passing attack despite five red zone targets. Kamara has only managed one rushing touchdown this year, a shocking total for the formerly elite scorer who now seems mostly done across the board. Kamara lacks quality despite a fair number of touches each week, he has a 6.0% explosive play rate and a 3.0% broken tackle rate while gaining 0.9 yards below expectation per rush attempt. Kamara is RB17/18 and RB19/23 this week.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Chris Olave is a volume-based wide receiver, ranking 23rd in points but 42nd in value on DraftKings and as WR22/37 across town on FanDuel. Olave draws a huge 10.4 targets per game with multiple weeks of double-digit targeting on the season, though those targets have generally lacked quality at a 66.27% catchable target rate. Olave has three touchdowns on the season while dominating air yards at a 37.35% clip despite just a 9.9-yard ADOT. He runs 38.1 routes and delivers 1.65 yards per route run against a defense giving up just 6.4 yards per pass attempt to rank fifth in football. Olave is just a mid-board mixer with a bit of added appeal in full-PPR scoring.
Deep threat Rashid Shaheed is another of our favorite weapons of mass destruction for deep targeting to break GPP slates. Shaheed slots into Week 9 ranking 30th in points and 38th in value on DraftKings. He runs 34.3 routes and sees 7.1 targets, three in the red zone for the year, while drawing an 11.1-yard average depth of target and 27.7% air yards share on the year. Despite the high-quality depth mark, Shaheed has actually been working on more conservative average targeting this season, he was at a 17.4-yard ADOT for 713 yards last year and a 14.6-yard mark for 1,108-yard season in 2023. Shaheed has big play potential on any given slate, he gained 114 yards and scored a touchdown in a big Week 5 against the Giants and could drop that same performance into this week’s slate despite coming into Sunday as questionable but expected to play.
DeVaugh Vele and Brandin Cooks are only limited options with 1.4 and 2.8 targets per game respectively. Neither has produced much this season, though Vele has a cheap touchdown on the board.
Juwan Johnson is the appealing third pass-catcher, though he is just TE17/15 and TE17/18 this week. The tight end drops in with one touchdown in his pocket for the season. He draws steady chances with 6.5 targets per game and five looks in the red zone but has not delivered consistently and gains just 1.35 yards per route run.
The Saints are a low-end option as Stack 20/19 and Stack 20/21 across DraftKings and FanDuel, there is a bit of viability in the primary pass-catchers but seemingly less in Alvin Kamara, unless the running back has found an elixir between games.
New York Giants
Game Total: 48.0 / NYG +2.5 (22.75)
Offense: 45.61% rush / 54.39% pass / 21.6 ppg / 4.0 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.0 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 20.5 ppg / 3.23% sack / 0.37% int
Key Player: Jaxson Dart
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Wan’Dale Robinson, Theo Johnson, Darius Slayton, Tyrone Tracy Jr. (on/off), Devin Singletary (on/off), Lil’Jordan Humphrey (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, Kendrick Bourne, Demarcus Robinson, Brian Robinson Jr. (on/off; large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Jaxson Dart is another weird case. In a game that the rookie signal-caller will be playing without his co-breakout rookie Cam Skattebo as well as the ongoing absence of the team’s dominant top receiver, somehow, Dart still looks like a playable piece. The rookie has a strong projection at a fair price and reasonable public exposure while facing a 49ers defense that is 17th against the pass at 7.0 yards allowed per pass attempt. Dart averages 6.9 yards per pass attempt despite 8.9 intended air yards per attempt, not a great combination of marks. The rookie has thrown eight touchdowns against three interceptions while averaging just 196.8 yards per game for the season, completing 60.0% of his 28.4 pass attempts per game, 5.4 points below expectation. Dart’s breakout production, or at least the rumors of one, is primarily driven by his production on the ground, he has four rushing touchdowns while leading the position in designed rush rate and scramble rate in his limited action ahead of last week’s game, in which he ran the ball another six times and throwing 24 passes. Dart ranks as QB10 by points but QB4 by value on DraftKings, he is QB10/10 on the FanDuel slate.
Running Backs
With Cam Skattebo done for the foreseeable future with a dislocated ankle, the Giants running back job reverts to Tyrone Tracy Jr. by default . Tracy Jr. is RB13 by points but RB4 by value on both sites in Week 9 despite gaining just 3.5 yards per rush attempt this season. The running back’s limited volume is hopefully to blame for the lack of quality, he produced several good DFS performances in a partial season last year as a rookie and should see very little push from Devin Singletary, despite the coaching staff’s fondness for the limited veteran.
Devin Singletary could poach a cheap touchdown but that is a the extent of his potential as RB37/37 and RB38/40 across sites.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Wan’Dale Robinson is a solid wide receiver who sees 7.1 targets per game on the season and hauls in 4.0 of them, ranking 21st in points and ninth in value on DraftKings, and 10th in value on FanDuel on this week’s slate and adding to the building Giants value profile. Robinson runs 33.6 routes and sees 7.1 targets for a 23.6% target share on routes run that leads the team, though a 68.42% catchable target rate is a detriment to production. With an average of 4.7 catches for 61.7 yards per game and an uptick to nine catches for 75 yards last week, Robinson should continue to provide steady non-spectacular production in this offense.
Darius Slayton is a deep-threat GPP play, ranking 41st in points and 31st in value on DraftKings. He runs 31.6 routes and sees 3.8 targets, two in the red zone for the season and has a 14.1-yard ADOT. but has not put a touchdown on the board and his deep play targeting leads to just a 13.99% air yards share. Slayton is just WR41/31 and WR41/38 this week.
Theo Johnson has burst onto the scene this season. The tight end slots into Week 9 ranking 10th in points and second in value on DraftKings, and 10th in value on FanDuel. He runs 30.1 routes and sees 4.6 targets, with eight red zone targets in eight games. Johnson is averaging 2.8 catches for 26.5 yards but has four touchdowns on the season, all of which have come since Dart’s Week 4 takeover. The young quarterback has a solid scoring connection with the tight end, they could be an appealing value duo.
The Giants will be challenged to find quality with extended absences for key players. A matchup against a mid-board defense, though one that generates very little quarterback pressure should be an interesting test for Dart, whose performance has been a mixed bag no matter what the NFL media wants you to believe. Dart is a value-based quarterback atop a value-based stack that lands as Stack 15 by points but Stack 3 by value on DraftKings and Stack 14/7 on FanDuel, where the Giants are less appealing overall.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Game Total: 50.0 / PIT +3.0 (23.5)
Offense: 42.19% rush / 57.81% pass / 25.0 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 19.3 ppg / 6.85% sack / 3.19% int
Key Player: Aaron Rodgers
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: DK Metcalf, Calvin Austin III, Jaylen Warren (on/off), Jonnu Smith, Kenneth Gainwell (on/off), Pat Freiermuth (on/off), Darnell Washington (on/off), Roman Wilson (on/off), Ben Skowronek (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Jonathan Taylor, Tyler Warren, Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, Alec Pierce
Game Notes:
Quarterback
While we are not fans of his, veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers is having another relatively productive season. The ancient veteran has thrown 16 touchdowns against just five interceptions this season, gaining 7.2 yards per pass attempt but that amounts to just 212.71 yards per game. Rodgers has completed passes at a rate 1.5 points above expectation but his 29.71 pass attempts per game is far from tremendous volume. Rodgers is just QB15/19 and QB15/14 across sites in a matchup with a Colts defense yielding just 6.9 yards per pass attempt to sit 14th in football.
Running Backs
Jaylen Warren has one good game, a 16-carry 127-yard Week 7 performance against the Bengals in which he added 31 yards on 4-5 receiving. Warren has not gained more than last week’s 62 yards in any other game this season and had been at 52 yards or fewer prior to Week 7. The running back has been steady with 4.5 yards per rush attempt and 2.8 yards after contact per attempt on the season but he has failed to score in the ground game. Warren has one touchdown on the board in the passing attack while seeing 3.7 targets per game on the year, he is an involved receiver but only a mid-volume running back overall. Warren is a challenging option, he rates well as RB10/3 and RB11/3 with elite value marks on both sites against a defense giving up a mid-ranked 4.3 yards per rush attempt but the overall production has been moderate at best in 2025.
Kenneth Gainwell remains a minor threat (“that’s a promise”) for production and to sap value from Warren’s scoring potential. Gainwell picks up 4.5 yards per rush attempt on 7.0 carries per game and has punched the ball in three times on the ground this season. He is a bit better than a dart throw at running back as RB31/28 and RB29/30 but is nowhere near a priority this week.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Veteran gamebreaker DK Metcalf is a wide receiver with a purpose this season. Metcalf has a team-leading 34.36% air yards share on a 21.70% target share on routes run over 30.3 routes per game for 2.17 yards per route run. The receiver is currently ranking 15th in points and 10th in value on DraftKings, but a poor 31st in value on FanDuel despite landing as WR13 for points on the blue slate. Metcalf runs 30.2 routes and sees 6.1 targets per game, drawing a 72.09% catchable target rate, with six red zone targets on the season. Metcalf has quickly become Rodgers’ favorite target in this offense, he is the obvious pairing with the veteran quarterback with both options at fair prices in an OK spot.
Calvin Austin III is just WR43/35 and WR43/44 across sites in Week 9. Austin III has a pair of touchdown catches this season and has big-play 11.7-yard average depth of target on 26.2 routes and 4.6 targets per game. The receiver is not much more than a low-end mixer for a shot at one big scoring play.
Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth are just mix-in tight ends with a bit of touchdown-scoring potential. Smith ranks 15th in points and 13th in value on DraftKings, and 15th in value on FanDuel. He runs 21.4 routes and sees 4.1 targets, with three red zone targets, while his counterpart checks in as 18th in points and 16th in value on DraftKings. He runs 17.1 routes and sees three targets, including three in the red zone. To add to the mix, Darnell Washington is no slouch with a 32.7% snap share but just two targets per game. Washington went without a target last week after picking up five in each of the two games prior.
The Steelers are a middling Stack 16 by points and Stack 11 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 15/16 on the FanDuel slate but they provide some upside in DK Metcalf and premium value at running back with Jaylen Warren at a cheap $5,500/$6,500 price tag across sites.
San Francisco 49ers
Game Total: 48.0 / SF -2.5 (25.25)
Offense: 40.0% rush / 60.0% pass / 20.0 ppg / 3.4 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 5.7 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass / 26.9 ppg / 6.05% sack / 1.36% int
Key Player: Mac Jones (Brock Purdy is questionable for availability but will not start regardless of status)
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, Kendrick Bourne, Demarcus Robinson, Brian Robinson Jr. (on/off; large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Wan’Dale Robinson, Theo Johnson, Darius Slayton, Tyrone Tracy Jr. (on/off), Devin Singletary (on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
With a 48.0-point game total and a compelling 25.25-point implied team total against a bad defense, the 49ers present a few interesting options, at least for points-per-dollar. Quarterback Mac Jones is one of those reasonable dice rolls at the head of this stack. Jones is a strong quarterback play, ranking 12th in points and second in value on DraftKings, though he is just QB12 by points and QB9 by value on the FanDuel slate. Jones is throwing 37.6 pass attempts per game for a strong average of 266.1 pass yards and has completed passes at a rate that sits 0.5 points over expectation, a small but not meaningless level of accuracy. Jones has eight touchdowns and five interceptions this season, his appeal is a low price against a bad defense and the ability of his skill players to carry him to DFS glory.
Running Backs
Superstar running back Christian McCaffrey is the number one overall player by projections on this slate. He ranks first in points and second in value at running back on DraftKings and sits at RB1/2 on the FanDuel slate as well. McCaffrey has been incredibly productive in what is arguably a down season. The running back gains just 3.8 yards per rush attempt on 17.5 carries per game, 0.7 yards below expectation per attempt, but has scored three times on the ground and another three in the passing game. McCaffrey’s 17.5 carries are only part of the story, he sees a massive spike in potential from 9.3 targets per game in the passing attack, giving him unrivaled potential touch marks at the position and separating him even further in full-PPR formats. McCaffrey is a go-to in scoring territory as well, leading the group with 12 red zone targets. He’s averaging seven catches for 69.8 yards, good for 7.6 yards per target on the season despite just a 2.7-yard ADOT that forces him to make things happen. The 10th-ranked YPRA defense is a tough matchup, but McCaffrey is about as matchup-proof as matchup-proof gets.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Jennings is an elite value, ranking 18th in points but vaulting all the way to first in value on DraftKings and sitting as WR18 by points and WR7 by value on FanDuel. Jennings catches 3.0 passes per game on a targetable 11.0-yard ADOT for an 18.03% air yards share. Jennings runs 31.6 routes and sees six targets, five in the red zone for the year, though he posted a disappointing total with just one touchdown. Jennings looks like a solid upside piece against a vulnerable Giants defense that has been worse by the numbers against the run than the pass, but gettable through the air.
Tight end George Kittle is an elite positional option against a defense that always seems to give up scoring to the position. Kittle returned to action last week, catching four of five targets over 32 routes run, gaining 43 yards and scoring a touchdown like no time had passed. Kittle slots into Week 9 ranking third in points and first in value on DraftKings, and second in value on FanDuel. In limited action this year, Kittle runs 22.6 routes and sees 3.7 targets, two in the red zone. He’s averaging 2.6 catches for 22.6 yards but has two touchdowns in two games played. Kittle caught eight touchdowns last year and six the year before, his bona fides are well-established.
With all the volume required for players above him on the depth chart, Kendrick Bourne is a mixer of a GPP play, ranking as WR50/58 and WR44/45. Bourne runs 32 routes and sees 5.6 targets per game, drawing two red zone targets in seven games, though that action crested in Weeks 5 and 6 when he had 11 and 9 targets and went for 142 yards in back-t0-back weeks. Bourne has 58 yards on five catches combined across two games since.
The 49ers are a mid-quality offense with a few amazing pieces against one of football’s truly inept defenses, they look like a highly playable option and rate as Stack 3 by points and Stack 1 by value on DraftKings, though a lot of that is simply Christian McCaffrey who can easily be utilized on his own or in stacks. San Francisco is Stack 5 by points and Stack 2 by value on FanDuel where McCaffrey also functions independently or with teammates. George Kittle and Jauan Jennings are premium positional options and the team offers depth among the bargain bin plays. The 49ers are a strong stack in a good spot in Week 9.
Tennessee Titans
Game Total: 43.5 / TEN +10 (16.75)
Offense: 34.75% rush / 65.25% pass / 13.8 ppg / 3.9 ypa rush / 5.9 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.9 ypa rush / 6.3 ypa pass / 21.6 ppg / 8.03% sack / 2.78% int
Key Player: Cam Ward
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Elic Ayomanor, Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears, Chimere Dike, Chig Okonkwo, Van Jefferson, Gunnar Helm (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, Oronde Gadsden II, Kiman Vidal (on/off), Tre’ Harris (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Cam Ward is a low-end quarterback, ranking 22nd in points but 20th in value on DraftKings and 22nd on FanDuel. Ward is averaging 34.2 attempts for 201.8 yards per game and a lousy 5.9 yards per pass attempt with a -3.4 CPOE. Young has very few quality options to work with in the passing game, Calvin Ridley is out of action and Elic Ayomanor is the go-to receiver here. Ward has thrown five touchdowns and six interceptions and is incredibly unlikely to do anything to inspire for DFS against a mid-rate Chargers defense that has been lousy against the run but excellent with just 6.3 yards allowed per pass attempt.
Running Backs
Tony Pollard is a mid-range running back, ranking 22nd in points and 20th in value on DraftKings, and 19th on FanDuel. He averages 13.6 carries for 53 yards. He also gets 2.8 targets, but has been inefficient with a -0.09 YPA/EXP. The matchup is elite against the 26th-ranked YPRA defense that gives up 4.9 yards per rush attempt on the season. Pollard has managed 3.9 yards per rush attempt with two touchdowns this season.
Tyjae Spears slides in as RB24/23 and RB24/20 despite badly outpacing his teammate at 5.5 yards per rush attempt on limited volume this year. Spears is not much more than a mixer, he sees 5.8 carries and 2.8 targets per game and needs to break an opportunity or score in the passing game like he has twice this year. Spears is a loose dart throw on a bad team, it simply is not a good idea in Week 9.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Elic Ayomanor caught two touchdown passes earlier in the season and continues to see chances. The rookie draws a 28.31% air yards share on a 13.0 ADOT but sees a marginal 55.32% catchable target rate on 18.6% targeting on routes run. Ayomanor gains 1.04 yards per route run and has only those two touchdowns while gaining just 5.9 yards per target on the season.
A GPP play at best, Chimere Dike sees 3.8 targets and has six red zone targets this season. He has a 9.0 ADOT to get into big play territory but has scored just once this year.
Chig Okonkwo is TE19/19 and TE20/20 with a bit of touchdown-dependent scoring potential at the very least. Okonkwo has one red zone target on limited overall volume this season, this is not an appealing option.
The Titans are Stack 22/21 on DraftKings and Stack 22/20 on FanDuel, they do not even offer strong pieces and parts for other lineups in standalone shares.
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