This article focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within the industry’s optimization tools. All of the concepts and pairings included below can also apply to hand-building. The goal is to create lineups with strong correlations among likely point-scorers to maximize the gains from infrequent scoring events within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.
This video was made in a former life and features a detailed demonstration of how to apply these concepts in one leading optimizer tool: Fantasy Cruncher – How-To Video
All references to Sims were done via friends of the site: acemind.io
Don’t miss the Above/Below feature article for a few of our top picks, coming Sunday morning
Game notes are updated during the week and initially posted as “work in progress” as they take a long time to create, if teams are missing notes simply check back later in the day/week and they should be updated.
2025 Week 12 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stack Rankings
The following stack rankings were created by pairing each team quarterback with his top three scoring options, whether they are three wide receivers, two wide receivers and a tight end, a wide receiver, tight end, and running back, or any viable combination. In some cases, an expensive running back can push the overall price point of his team stack in the value rankings.
| TEAM | OPP | FD$ | FDpRank | FDvalRank | DK$ | DkpRank | DKvalRank | Vegas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | LAR | $32,300 | 1 | 3 | $28,900 | 1 | 7 | 9 |
| LAR | DET | $33,200 | 3 | 5 | $29,700 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| SF | TEN | $29,200 | 2 | 1 | $25,800 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| CIN | BAL | $29,800 | 6 | 7 | $24,700 | 4 | 4 | 11 |
| BAL | CIN | $29,200 | 4 | 2 | $23,900 | 5 | 2 | 5 |
| PHI | LV | $32,800 | 5 | 15 | $26,500 | 6 | 13 | 7 |
| SEA | IND | $29,300 | 7 | 6 | $25,100 | 7 | 9 | 3 |
| BUF | NE | $29,500 | 8 | 11 | $25,300 | 8 | 18 | 8 |
| JAC | NYJ | $26,800 | 10 | 9 | $23,500 | 9 | 8 | 3 |
| HOU | ARI | $26,100 | 9 | 4 | $21,600 | 10 | 3 | 6 |
| KC | LAC | $29,800 | 12 | 21 | $23,600 | 11 | 16 | 11 |
| NE | BUF | $26,600 | 11 | 10 | $23,200 | 12 | 14 | 11 |
| ARI | HOU | $28,000 | 13 | 17 | $24,400 | 13 | 20 | 21 |
| WAS | NYG | $26,300 | 14 | 12 | $20,600 | 14 | 5 | 15 |
| CAR | NO | $26,600 | 16 | 13 | $22,300 | 15 | 17 | 17 |
| NYG | WAS | $24,400 | 17 | 8 | $20,500 | 16 | 6 | 9 |
| DEN | GB | $25,600 | 18 | 16 | $22,600 | 17 | 21 | 18 |
| CHI | CLE | $25,100 | 19 | 14 | $21,200 | 18 | 19 | 14 |
| IND | SEA | $27,600 | 21 | 23 | $23,200 | 19 | 23 | 24 |
| LAC | KC | $28,700 | 23 | 25 | $23,400 | 20 | 24 | 20 |
| NO | CAR | $25,900 | 20 | 19 | $20,100 | 21 | 15 | 19 |
| CLE | CHI | $25,700 | 22 | 22 | $19,400 | 22 | 10 | 23 |
| LV | PHI | $25,300 | 24 | 24 | $20,400 | 23 | 22 | 26 |
| TEN | SF | $22,500 | 25 | 18 | $17,400 | 24 | 11 | 21 |
| NYJ | JAC | $24,900 | 26 | 26 | $19,200 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
| GB | DEN | $28,300 | 15 | 20 | $22,300 | 26 | 26 | 15 |
Week 12 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stacks & Optimizer Groups
Overview
Rules and limits are powerful tools for lineup creation for NFL DFS where our primary focus is creating highly correlated lineups via stacking players from the same game. Lineups will typically be coordinated around the quarterback selection, which informs at least one pass-catcher choice, establishes a budget, eliminates a defense, and sets the tone for the lineup. We will typically look to correlate a quarterback and at least one of his pass-catchers in every lineup, with many of those including a skill player from the opposing team. This player is included to support the stack in a high-scoring game that drives offense on both sides, creating additional correlated scoring potential. Stacking multiple pass-catchers in the same lineup is a sound approach, though there are typically overall ceilings on how much volume is available at any given position. While pass-catching running backs can be prioritized in stacks and group tools, including running backs who are not involved in the passing game is less important at this stage, they will fall naturally into shares as needed. High-volume backs and pass catchers out of the backfield can be included in the groups utilized below, but it is frequently not necessary to do so with the very best players, they arrive in lineups without help.
Rules and limits are typically applied in an optimizer’s Advanced Options menu. Notes are included to illustrate the reasons behind each rule and explain what it does during the lineup creation process. These settings can typically be saved for re-use, which is highly recommended. Saving the groups created below is also a good idea that will save time with updates instead of recreation each week. These groups are created manually, but most optimizers include automated group creators that can help accelerate the curation process.
DraftKings + FanDuel Settings & Advanced Options
Note – Terminology may vary from site to site but these are common functions across most industry tools.
Unique Players Per Lineup– This setting forces the optimizer to utilize at least X new players who were not in Lineup 1 when it creates Lineup 2, and so on. We recommend a setting of at least two unique players, more can be applied depending on the degree of differentiation desired within lineups.
Team Salary– a minimum or maximum salary spend can be applied here as needed, although leaving salary on the table is an easy path toward creating unique lineups while not necessarily making a negative expected value play.
FLEX position– allows restrictions on what positions can be rostered at the FLEX spot. The primary position to restrict is the tight end so that lineups do not include two players from the position. In many industry tools this is a separate option via a checkbox, it can also be handled specifically within groups.
Global Exposure Setting – allows caps on the maximum percentage of lineups a player can appear in within a given pool of lineup construction. This is a powerful tool for shaping lineups but if settings are too low, attempts to build a full set will fall short due to a lack of available players, one of the most common errors in optimizer building. Most optimizers include the ability to calculate ownership caps continuously or at the end of the pool creation process. If caps are calculated continuously, a player with a 25% cap who is utilized in Lineup 1 will not be available for use again until Lineup 5, we recommend turning OFF continuous calculation.
Randomness – provides a random multiplier to each player’s projected point total based on the set values. This valuable tool helps differentiate lineups instead of simply creating them in order of the highest median projected scores. Using some randomness for lineup generation is strongly recommended but the degree to which it is applied is down to personal preference, 15-25% is fine to get started. We suggest heavier randomness to more event-based players like wide receivers while tracking volume-based positions like running backs more toward their median or ceiling projections.
DraftKings + FanDuel Team Stack Rules
This set of rules will force optimizers to build lineups with certain combinations. We are looking to stack at least one skill player, almost always a pass-catcher, with his quarterback while frequently playing a skill player from the opposing team in the lineup. The theory behind this build is that a high-scoring stack will require some response from the opposing team to deliver a ceiling score in most situations. Most optimizers utilize a “complete the sentence” approach for rule creation with selections from drop-down menus following a very straightforward logic. Exceptions to these rules can be added for specific teams and players on most optimizer products.
- QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It is fine to set this to two or to utilize two versions of this rule, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can also refine this via Groups)
- optional – QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from the Opposing Team (we typically prefer the pass-catchers but high-volume running backs can be effective here)
- QB with at most zero DST from the Same Team (this is a personal preference; high-scoring teams and quarterbacks tend to leave their defenses on the field, exposing them to simple point-scoring negatives)
Limits & Custom Rules and Requirements
Limit rules can be applied to restrict certain combinations from coming together. This is powerful for limiting multiple running backs from the same team or getting overweight to a certain stack within a lineup.
- Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
- Limit RB/WR/TE from the Same Team to one unless paired with QB from the Same Team OR the Opposing Team (this prevents multiple players from a team that is not a primary quarterback-based stack)
- optional – Limit RB from Same Team to one (we can also do this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s a personal preference for NFL DFS, we typically do not want two pass-catchers from the same team without their quarterback)
We will maintain the list of rules and limits throughout the season, with occasional tweaks. Each week sees another fresh crop of value plays as situations change and injuries create opportunities around the league. These changing roles and emergent value plays are accounted for in creating these groups from week to week. After a large pool of lineups is created utilizing these groups, it is still critical to filter them for factors including ceiling projections and leverage potential. These groups should help ensure that a highly correlated premium set of options that rotates through various combinations is utilized to create the full lineup pool.
Sunday Updates
Any changes and recommended boosts to specific players will be provided in an early morning update each Sunday.
NFL DFS Week 12 Features & Projections
- Week 12 Projections
- Week 12 Above/Below
- Week 12 Quarterback Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 12 Running Back Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 12 Pass-Catcher Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 12 Defense Scoring & Value Rankings
Construction Concept
Team groups are built by utilizing the quarterback as the KEY player in group settings. The quarterback decision is the driving factor in determining which stack the lineup utilizes and which corresponding plays are made to work within the structured requirements. In Fantasy Cruncher, built to specification, each team will have two groups, a team group, and an opponent group, both of which utilize the same quarterback as the key player. Each game will have a total of four groups. This is the best approach to truly capture the requirement of playing individual “run-back” plays from the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to include all of the skill players from a game in each quarterback’s group and rely on rules and limits to restrict any potential overflow. It is highly recommended to save the early season groups as a foundation that will be updated for the rest of the season. The recommended groups will include skill players who have an active role in their offense and provide significant correlation with their quarterback’s scoring, often bell-cow running backs who do not specialize in the passing game will not be included in groups as they are projected highly and appear on their own in basically correct distributions, while also not always providing the strongest positive correlation plays. Stacking quarterbacks with pass-catchers and allowing running backs to fall into the lanes created by settings, available salary, and randomness should create a well-distributed set of quality lineups. These groups are updated weekly to account for changes in utilization, schemes, injuries, target shares, and more.
Team Groups for DraftKings & FanDuel – Week 12
The goal is to create a large pool of well-built lineups that can be utilized in any large-field GPP contest. Our approach is to build far more lineups than needed and utilize a sorting table or sim process to filter to the best set of entries. The lineups created in these crunches should provide a broad distribution that includes some of the lower-owned high-upside skill players from each stack. Applying boosts is critical in pushing and pulling ownership to individual players within their team’s stacked lineups if they appear too much or too little.
The groups below are designed so that each quarterback will have two groups to create, one with his skill players and another with the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to add them all to one large group with an “at least three” and let rules and limits set things, but there is a more granular level of control in creating them separately.
Utilizing two groups also allows us to place running backs into the “run-back” position in certain teams while not including them in the primary stack for their team. This is useful when a situation has an extremely highly projected running back that does not necessarily fit into his team’s passing game. These players are threaded throughout the following construction recommendations.
Note for all optimizers the rules can be utilized to force bring-back plays in some sets of crunches and turned off for others as a global function instead of changing each group to “exactly one” bring-back play, wherever applicable, but it will apply to all teams.
Arizona Cardinals
Game Total: 47.5 / ARI +3.0 (22.25)
Offense: 37.08% rush / 62.92% pass / 22.4 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.0 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass / 22.6 ppg / 3.93% sack / 3.54% int
Key Player: Jacoby Brissett
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Trey McBride, Michael Wilson, Zonovan “Bam” Knight (on/off), Greg Dortch, Michael Carter (on/off), Xavier Weaver, Elijah Higgins
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Travis Etienne Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington, Brenton Strange, Bhayshul Tuten (on/off), Dyami Brown, Tim Patrick
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Jacoby Brissett offers a middling floor in this slate, ranking as QB12 by points and QB8 by value on DraftKings and QB11 by points and QB9 by value on FanDuel. The backup quarterback has been sharp, once again showing his quality compared to the average signal caller in the league is strong. Brissett is averaging 7.4 yards per pass attempt on 7.8 intended air yards per attempt and has thrown 10 passing touchdowns against just three interceptions in five starts. His efficiency is respectable, posting a completion percentage 2.5 points over expectation. On the ground, he adds 11.4 rushing yards per game on 3.0 attempts and has scored one rushing touchdown, but his passing acumen is the story.
Running Backs
Zonovan “Bam” Knight leads a split backfield that lost another member just as it gained someone back. Knight is averaging 6.6 attempts per game for just 3.4 yards per rush attempt and 22.6 per game but he has scored three rushing touchdowns this season. Knight adds 1.5 receptions and 10.8 yards per game on limited involvement in the passing attack. As RB22 by points and RB21 by value on DraftKings and RB22/18 on FanDuel, and with competition for touches from Michael Carter, Knight is a thin option in most formats.
Michael Carter rotates in the backfield and should see increased touches in his third week back in action and with the absence of Emari Demercado. Carter has not been great this season, averaging just 2.7 yards per rush attempt on 6.7 attempts per game in limited chances. Carter has one rushing touchdown to his name and is slightly more involved in the passing game than Knight, averaging 2.3 receptions per game on 3.2 targets. Carter is an afterthought as RB29 by points and RB28 by value on DraftKings and RB29/23 on the FanDuel slate.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Trey McBride is the elite option at his position, boasting a massive 27.5% target share on routes run across 40.0 routes per game, while boasting a 27.9% air yards share. McBride once again ranks as TE1 by points and TE1 by value on DraftKings and is TE1 by points and TE2 by value on FanDuel. After struggling a bit with touchdown scoring last season, McBride has found the end zone seven times through the air this season and remains a heavy favorite in the red zone with 21 targets. The tight end sees dramatically more chances than the next-most targeted option at his position, he is a weekly “if you can get him, do it” option who is averaging 1.80 yards per route run and 4.3 yards after the catch per reception.
Coming off of a massive week, Michael Wilson is a solid flex consideration with Marvin Harrison Jr. out again in Week 12. Wilson is already running 36.6 routes per game overall but he stepped up the pace with 52 and 49 routes run over the past two games. The receiver put up a monster as a popular value option last week, gaining 185 yards on 15 catches from 18 targets over the 49 routes run, though he did fail to score a touchdown. He holds a 15.6% target share and commands 22.0% of the team’s air yards in the overall, numbers that again have increased over recent action. Wilson is averaging a mediocre 1.14 yards per route run on a strong average depth of target of 11.0 yards that puts him in big play range. Wilson ranks as WR17 by points and WR3 by value on DraftKings at another great price, he is WR15 by points and WR10 by value on FanDuel where he looks like a go-to option from the mid-board.
As WR34 by points and WR37 by value on DraftKings and WR34/31 on FanDuel, Greg Dortch has very limited appeal, even as a value dart. Dortch is seeing 2.2 targets per game and averaging just 0.85 yards per route run. He has scored two receiving touchdowns on the year and could see a few additional chances, though his overall usage remains low, with only a 6.1 percent target share on routes run.
Xavier Weaver is a deep reserve, ranking as WR71 by points on DraftKings and WR67 by points on FanDuel. He runs 15.0 routes per game but sees minimal volume with just 0.4 receptions per game and a target share of 1.1 percent under normal circumstances, though he did run 43 routes while drawing three targets over 56 snaps with the offense last week. Weaver turned that action into two catches for an empty 15 yards.
The Arizona stack lands in the middle of the pack this week, as Stack 9 by points but Stack 5 by value on DraftKings, with the cheap scoring of Brissett and Wilson piling on top of the premium tight end. On FanDuel they are Stack 9 by points and Stack 8 by value and are still playable. Ultimately, a Brissett +2 stack is “fine” but the team is still probably best utilized for mining premium skill options, though not much comes from the backfield where this unit faces a stiff test on the ground, with the Jaguars defense ranking eighth in yards allowed per rush attempt at just 4.0. The secondary is equally formidable, also ranking eighth in yards allowed per pass attempt at just 6.7. Arizona is a playable but not overly appealing option against a quality Jaguars team, they could serve best as standalone plays or bring-back options in a higher-end Jaguars stack.
Atlanta Falcons
Game Total: 40.0 / ATL +2.5 (18.75)
Offense: 44.03% rush / 55.97% pass / 19.5 ppg / 4.5 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.0 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass / 25.0 ppg / 6.89% sack / 1.76% int
Key Player: Kirk Cousins
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Bijan Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts Sr., Tyler Allgeier, KhaDarel Hodge, David Sills V, Charlie Woerner
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara, Juwan Johnson, Devaughn Vele, Devin Neal (on/off), Taysom Hill (on/off), Foster Moreau (on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins will pick up the start for Atlanta with Michael Penix Jr. dropping to the IR. Cousins is a low-end option, he does not seem to have much left in the tank and ranks as QB17 by points and QB10 by value on DraftKings and QB17 by points and QB16 by value on FanDuel. Cousins made a start in Week 8, completing 21 of 31 pass attempts for 173 yards and failing to throw at touchdown pass. This is a spot best mined for individual skill players, the less they need to rely on the shaky veteran, the better.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson is an elite play, as usual, ranking as RB1 by points and RB5 by value on DraftKings and RB3 by points and RB6 by value on FanDuel. Robinson dominates the backfield with 15.8 rushing attempts per game, averaging 78.3 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per rush attempt, while gaining 0.3 yards beyond expectation per attempt. Robinson has found the end zone four times on the ground this season. He is also heavily involved in the passing game, averaging 4.7 receptions and 50.6 receiving yards per game with two receiving touchdowns.
Tyler Allgeier serves as the secondary back but he is more involved than most in that role, averaging 7.7 attempts and 28.0 rushing yards per game. The running back is perhaps the best touchdown poacher in the industry, despite the limited overall touches, Allgeier has already scored seven rushing touchdowns this season, showing strong goal-line utility. He ranks as RB32 by points and RB30 by value on DraftKings and sits at RB32/33 on FanDuel but essentially requires that touchdown to make value.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Darnell Mooney will see a chance to stand out in Week 12 with Drake London out of action. Mooney is not the most reliable receiver, but the opportunity is strong, he is a viable receiving option, ranking as WR22 by points and WR16 by value on DraftKings and WR24 by points and WR22 by value on FanDuel. Mooney is running 29.9 routes per game and commands a 13.3% target share on routes run but is averaging just 28.0 receiving yards per game and has yet to score a touchdown. His average depth of target is strong at 14.1 yards, good for a 23.1% air yards share, but again Mooney is only averaging a weak 0.94 yards per route run. The receiver should see a bump in targets and quality as the leading option in a shaky passing attack in Week 12.
Kyle Pitts Sr. ranks as TE5 by points and TE8 by value on DraftKings and TE6 by points and TE1 by value on FanDuel, making him a top value option at the position on the blue site where he costs just $4,900. The tight end runs 32.7 routes per game with a robust 19.7% target share. Pitts is averaging 43.4 receiving yards per game, or 7.0 per target, and has scored one touchdown. Pitts gets into the action with a fair 7.1-yard average depth of target adding up to a 15.98% air yards share with room for more in this week’s configuration of the offense.
KhaDarel Hodge is a depth receiver, ranking as WR55 by points on DraftKings. He runs limited routes but has an average depth of target of 15.0 yards and could see a few big chances in the reconfigured passing game. Hodge is averaging just 0.86 yards per route run and has zero touchdowns, he is no more than a cheap value dart.
David Sills V is a deep reserve, ranking as WR65 by points on DraftKings. He is running 15.8 routes per game with a low 2.9 percent target share. Charlie Woerner is a blocking tight end with minimal fantasy relevance, ranking as TE41 by points on DraftKings. He averages just 0.2 receptions and 0.9 receiving yards per game on 0.3 targets, he is not involved frequently. While there will be additional looks in the offense, neither of these options pops for much value behind a Cousins-led passing attack.
The Falcons stack ranks 11th in DraftKings points and seventh in value, while sitting 11th in FanDuel points and 10th in value. The matchup on the ground is moderately tough, with the opposing defense ranking eighth in yards allowed per rush attempt at 4.0. Cousins has a chance to lead his team to success through the air, the matchup is significantly softer, as the defense ranks 23rd at 7.3 yards per pass attempt. Overall, this team is best utilized as a resource for a few good skill options at fair prices, including Bijan Robinson as one of the slate-leaders for raw scoring, and Darnell Mooney as a chalky mid-board value play.
Baltimore Ravens
Game Total: 44.5 / BAL – 14.0 (29.25)
Offense: 48.41% rush / 51.59% pass / 25.2 ppg / 5.2 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 26.8 ppg / 5.63% sack / 0.0% int
Key Player: Lamar Jackson
Setting: at least one / at most two (allows for “naked” Jackson builds)
Team Group: Derrick Henry (on/off), Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, DeAndre Hopkins, Isaiah Likely, Justice Hill (on/off), Tylan Wallace (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Breece Hall, Mason Taylor, Adonai Mitchell, John Metchie III, Isaiah Davis (on/off), Isaiah Williams (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Superstar Lamar Jackson is a top-tier signal caller, ranking as QB2 by points and QB5 by value on DraftKings and QB2 by points and QB3 by value on FanDuel. Jackson is talented and high-scoring enough to play on his own outside of stacks, provisions to run “naked” builds are provided above in the groups settings for any optimizer. The quarterback is still a good option to stack skill players around as well, he has a strong connection with pass-catchers and is a high-performing passer. Jackson is averaging just 206.0 passing yards per game but he has thrown 15 passing touchdowns and a deals at a hyper-efficient 8.4 yards per pass attempt. On the ground, Jackson remains dangerous, averaging 32.3 rushing yards on 5.6 attempts per game, though he only has one rushing score on the year. The quarterback is still making up for lost time in the season-long totals, his ridiculous upside remains intact against a defense that sits 18th against the run at 4.3 yards per attempt but 15th against the pass at 7.0 yards allowed per attempt. Jackson is a premium play as a ridiculous -14.0-point favorite pulling a 29.25-point implied team total.
Running Backs
Veteran star Derrick Henry continues to be a force, ranking as RB4 by points and RB7 by value on DraftKings and RB4 by points and RB2 by value on FanDuel. Henry is averaging a massive 80.7 rushing yards per game on 16.6 attempts, adding 1.1 receptions on 1.5 targets per game for a tiny boost. The running back has found the end zone seven times on the ground while rumbling to 4.9 yards per rush attempt, a mark 0.9 yards over expectation per attempt. Henry is an upside click against the Jets in Week 12.
Justice Hill serves as a receiving back, ranking as RB35 by points and RB34 by value on DraftKings and RB39 by points and RB36 by value on FanDuel. He averages 2.3 receptions on 3.0 targets per game, and is good for 6.3 yards per target this year. On the ground, he adds 10.3 rushing yards per game on 2.0 attempts and has scored two rushing touchdowns. Hill is a low-end dart throw who would truly need calamity above him on the depth chart to make value. Similarly, Keaton Mitchell is a rotational back, ranking as RB38 by points and RB36 by value on DraftKings and RB37 by points and RB35 by value on FanDuel. He is averaging 20.7 rushing yards on 3.5 attempts per game but has yet to score a touchdown and has not seen more than six carries in a game this season.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Zay Flowers operates as the clear top option in the Baltimore receiver room, ranking as WR14 by points and WR21 by value on DraftKings and WR13 by points and WR14 by value on FanDuel in Week 12. Flowers commands a 27.8% target share and 31.2% air yards share while running 29.2 routes per game for a fantastic 2.41 yards per route run for the year, though he has somehow found the end zone just once this season.
Tight end Mark Andrews ranks as TE8 by points and TE4 by value on DraftKings and is TE9 by points and TE9 by value on FanDuel. Andrews runs 21.2 routes per game and sees a 16.9% target share on routes run, while contributing 1.3 yards per route run. With five receiving touchdowns and eight red zone targets on the year, Andrews hears his number called with regularity when scoring time arrives. The veteran averages 27.6 receiving yards per game and is a strong bet in +1 or +2 groupings around Lamar Jackson.
DeAndre Hopkins is a depth option, ranking as WR41 by points and WR29 by value on DraftKings and WR41 by points and WR38 by value on FanDuel. Hopkins is deployed conservatively in this offense, he runs 12.4 routes per game and draws just a nine percent target share on those routes but puts up 1.77 yards per route run to sit second on the team. Hopkins has scored two touchdowns, both of which came in the opening weeks of the season, he averages just 21.9 receiving yards per game but that comes on a big-play-adjacent 15.1-yard average depth of target.
Isaiah Likely ranks as TE21 by points but hops up to TE13 by value on DraftKings, he is just TE19 by points and TE19 by value on FanDuel. Likely runs 18.6 routes per game and sees a 6.3 percent target share despite seeing fair snap shares. The tight end picks up just 16.9 receiving yards per game and has not scored this season.
Tylan Wallace and Devontez Walker are no more than depth darts at extreme long shot touchdowns on light volume.
The Ravens present a high-upside stack that may function better in pieces than as a whole. Baltimore ranks as Stack 5 in DraftKings points and Stack 6 in value on DraftKings. On FanDuel, they sit as Stack 4 in both points and value. Lamar Jackson + 1 or +2 builds are entirely viable, but the threat of the quarterback doing most of the scoring on his own is always present. Jackson has run somewhat less and is performing at a very high level as a passer, getting him on the board in shares with Flowers and/or Andrews is a strong approach, and Derrick Henry can always benefit from a rising tide effect in stacks, though that is a careful balance of opportunity in the offense. The matchup is fair, the Jets defense ranks 18th in yards allowed per rush attempt and 15th in yards allowed per pass attempt and generates essentially no pressure at just 16.0%. New York is yet to intercept a pass this season, Jackson has a chance to lead his team, and this stack, to big things in Week 12.
Chicago Bears
Game Total: 46.5 / CHI -2.5 (24.5)
Offense: 46.53% rush / 53.47% pass / 25.8 ppg / 4.9 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.2 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass / 23.2 ppg / 7.67% sack / 2.27% int
Key Player: Caleb Williams
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: D’andre Swift (on/off), Rome Odunze, DJ Moore, Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland, Kyle Monangai (on/off), Cole Kmet
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Jaylen Warren (on/off), DK Metcalf, Kenneth Gainwell (on/off), Calvin Austin III, Pat Freiermuth, Roman Wilson, Jonnu Smith
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Caleb Williams offers solid upside, ranking as QB6 by points and QB7 by value on DraftKings and QB6 by points and QB7 by value on FanDuel. The young quarterback averages 7.2 yards per pass attempt and 232.9 per game with 13 touchdowns against just four interceptions. Williams can still be a roller coaster, his -7.5 CPOE mark needs substantial improvement, but he adds significant value on the ground, averaging 27.2 rushing yards on 5.2 attempts per game with three rushing touchdowns on the board. Williams has strong weapons in the passing game and throws a fairly aggresive 32.5 times per game, he is a strong option with slate-bending upside against a Steelers defense that allows 7.1 yards per pass attempt and 4.2 yards per rush to sit in the middle of the league in both categories.
Running Backs
D’Andre Swift is a strong play, the running back ranks as RB7 by points and RB2 by value on DraftKings and RB8 by points and RB5 by value on FanDuel. Swift averages 70.4 rushing yards on 14.9 attempts per game, good for 4.7 yards per attempt, and has found the end zone four times on the ground. Swift is also active in the passing game, averaging 2.6 receptions on 3.7 targets each week, enough to get to 6.4 yards per target and find a touchdown catch for his fifth overall score. Swift is a playable option who is not a priority, he can be deployed with a fair amount of confidence of at least steady production both in and out of stacks on either site.
Kyle Monangai saw a bit of a bump through the end of October and early November but typically serves as the secondary back. The rookie carries the ball 8.7 times per game for a solid 4.7 yards per rush attempt with three rushing touchdowns on the limited chances. Monangai ranks as RB31 by points and RB32 by value on DraftKings.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Second-year star Rome Odunze is the top-ranked receiver in this group, sitting at WR19 by points and WR30 by value on DraftKings and WR17 by points and WR20 by value on FanDuel. Odunze is Caleb Williams’ top option by a wide margin, he runs 34.8 routes per game and commands a 23.6% target share with a massive 40.6% air yards share derived from his 14.4-yard average depth of target across 7.5 chances per game. Odunze is averaging 60.0 receiving yards per game and has scored six touchdowns on the season, he has explosive ability and delivers a good-not-great 1.72 yards per route run.
DJ Moore remains a key piece of the offense, ranking as WR25 by points and WR27 by value on DraftKings and WR29 by points and WR30 by value on FanDuel in Week 12. The veteran sees a 16.0% target share over his 32.3 routes run per game. Moore is averaging 42.1 receiving yards per game, 8.3 per target, but has scored only one touchdown. As a mid-level option who rates inclusion across the industry, Moore should be expected to come up a bit under-owned on the perceptions of a dip in overall output. While this is not necessarily false, the ongoing targeting and a handful of red zone chances boost confidence somewhat. When the lousy 64.71% catchable target rate that Moore has seen from Williams is factored in, things come even more into focus. This is a still-talented explosive player with potential in a strong candidate for stacking in Week 12.
Luther Burden III is an intriguing option, ranking as WR33 by points but rocketing up the board to WR9 by value on DraftKings, highlighting his point-per-dollar appeal. Burden rates as WR31/19 on the FanDuel board where his price is more normalized to his potentially increased role. Overall, Burden has run limited routes but has been ludicrously efficient on that light involvement, with 2.37 yards per route run. Burden is averaging 27.7 receiving yards per game and has scored one touchdown while drawing praise from coaching and plenty of coachspeak regarding enhanced involvement.
Colston Loveland is a viable tight end play, ranking as TE15 by points and TE17 by value on DraftKings. He runs 21.7 routes per game with a 10.4 percent target share. Loveland is averaging 36.6 receiving yards per game and has found the end zone twice but shares the job with veteran Cole Kmet who can also get out into coverage as a pass-catcher. Kmet ranks as TE32 by points and TE30 by value on DraftKings. He runs 21.4 routes per game but sees a lower target share at just 8.8%. Kmet is averaging 21.3 receiving yards per game and has one touchdown this season.
Olamide Zaccheaus is a depth receiver who has been pushed out of a more regular role with the emergence of Burden III. Zaccheaus ranks as WR69 by points on DraftKings and WR71/71 on FanDuel. He runs 22.4 routes per game with a 15.7 percent target share and is averaging 24.8 receiving yards per game.
The Bears stack lands in the middle of the pack, ranking 13th in DraftKings points and 12th in value. On FanDuel, they sit 13th in points and 11th in value. The matchup is neutral to slightly unfavorable, with the Steelers defense ranking 15th in yards allowed per rush attempt at 4.2 and 17th in yards allowed per pass attempt at 7.1. Pittsburgh can get after the quarterback a bit, they have a 23.3% pressure rate on the season and have come away with 33 sacks and nine interceptions but have been beaten up badly by worse offenses. Chicago has a chance to pop for production beyond their middling Stack rankings this week. At worst, the team offers usable skill player parts up and down the board at a variety of prices.
Cincinnati Bengals
Game Total: 50.0 / CIN +7.5 (21.25)
Offense: 32.54% rush / 67.46% pass / 22.8 ppg / 4.3 ypa rush / 6.4 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.9 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass / 18.7 ppg / 6.28% sack / 1.96% int
Key Player: Joe Burrow Joe Flacco (Joe Burrow will miss Week 12)
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Tee Higgins, Chase Brown, Andrei Iosivas, Noah Fant, Mike Gesicki, Mitch Tinsley, Jermaine Burton (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: TreVeyon Henderson, Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry, Mack Hollins, Kahshon Boutte, Kyle Williams, DeMario Douglas, Austin Hooper
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Joe Flacco gets at least one more week in the sun as it was announced on Saturday that returning Joe Burrow will miss at least one more week. Flacco ranks as QB13 by points and QB19 by value on DraftKings and QB13 by points and QB17 by value on FanDuel and will be operating without Ja’Marr Chase. The veteran averages 252.0 passing yards per game, 6.1 per attempt, with 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Since joining the Bengals in Week 6, Flacco has thrown 12 of his touchdown passes and only three of his interceptions. Flacco is averaging 6.1 yards per pass attempt with a completion percentage that dips -0.1 points below expectation by CPOE. The veteran is made good by elite pass-catchers like Tee Higgins, but the absence of Ja’Marr Chase is a big detriment to this offense. Flacco is a low-level standalone option at too high a price.
Running Backs
Chase Brown is a top-tier option for points-per-dollar value, ranking as RB5 by points and RB1 by value on DraftKings and RB6 by points and RB1 by value on FanDuel. Brown averages just 4.1 yards per rush attempt on a limited 12.6 carries per game but has been steady with 0.42 yards per attempt over expectation and 2.3 yards after contact per attempt. Through the air, he adds 3.9 receptions and 22.9 receiving yards per game on steady involvement at 5.3 targets to pad his potential touch count to a respectable-enough 17.9. Brown will draw down against a defense that has been tough against the run, New England allows just 3.9 yards per rush attempt to sit fourth in the league, the running back has his work cut out for him and could slide somewhat in Sunday updates.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Tee Higgins ranks as WR5 by points and WR11 by value on DraftKings and WR5 by points and WR5 by value on FanDuel and has slate-breaking upside with Ja’Marr Chase out of action. Higgins is typically the team’s dynamic 1A receiver, running 37.0 routes per game and commanding an 18.0% target share with a 33.79% air yards share under normal circumstances. There is room for significantly more as the clear-cut number one option in Week 12. Higgins picks up 1.47 yards per route run and 3.8 yards after the catch per reception, he is a stick of dynamite looking for a place to detonate on Sunday.
Depth receiver Andrei Iosivas gets down the field in a hurry and could provide an interesting secondary option for a big play in Week 12. Iosivas ranks as WR31 by points and WR26 by value on DraftKings and WR28 by points and WR27 by value on FanDuel. He runs 33.2 routes per game with just a 9.8% target share on routes run while averaging 0.77 yards per route run on an average depth of target of 8.9 yards that is far shorter than he has been targeted in years past. Iosivas could take a step up in class but remains mostly a wildcard in a low-end stack.
Mike Gesicki ranks as TE19 by points and TE7 by value on DraftKings and TE21 by points and TE13 by value on FanDuel. He runs 15.8 routes per game and sees a 4.5 percent target share. Gesicki is averaging 0.64 yards per route run and shows very little value while sharing the job. Noah Fant ranks as TE25 by points and TE31 by value on DraftKings and TE26 by points and TE30 by value on FanDuel. He runs 17.8 routes per game with a 9.6 percent target share. Fant is efficient with 1.60 yards per route run and 5.2 yards after the catch per reception.
Mitch Tinsley is a depth receiver, ranking as WR59 by points on DraftKings. He runs limited routes but is averaging 1.11 yards per route run with a 14.8-yard average depth of target. Tinsley and Jermaine Burton could draw the odd target but would likely need to break a big play on very light volume to matter at all on Sunday.
The Bengals stack ranks 10th in points and in value on DraftKings, while landing 10th in points and ninth in value on FanDuel. The team offers two highly appealing pieces in Tee Higgins and Chase Brown (for value), who are debatably better utilized in standalone shares in other lineups than fully stacked Bengals entries. Flacco is good enough to keep up the pace, however, and Flacco+Higgins+X builds are viable.
Cleveland Browns
Game Total: 36.0 / CLE +4.0 (16.0)
Offense: 38.84% rush / 61.16% pass / 16.2 ppg / 4.0 ypa rush / 5.0 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.8 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 25.3 ppg / 5.43% sack / 1.81% int
Key Player: Shedeur Sanders
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Quinshon Judkins, Jerry Jeudy, Harold Fannin Jr., Cedric Tillman, David Njoku, Isaiah Bond (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Brock Bowers, Ashton Jeanty, Tre Tucker, Michael Mayer, Tyler Lockett, Raheem Mostert, Dont’e Thornton Jr.
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Satirical news site, The Onion perhaps put it best this week with their headline: “Shedeur Sanders Confident He Can Deliver Everything Browns Fans Have Come to Expect.” The rookie got into action with an injury to Dillon Gabriel last week and he is taking the reins to start in Week 12. Sanders ranks at the bottom of the board as QB22 by points and QB18 by value on DraftKings, he is QB21 by points and QB22 by value on FanDuel. Sanders took 29 snaps in last week’s game, throwing 16 passes and completing four of them. Four. He threw for 47 yards and lost an interception. The rookie added 16 yards on three rush attempts and could find moderate production on the ground that will ultimately not make him a viable DFS play. The Browns have offered very little reason to play them as a stack at all this season, keep listening to them.
Running Backs
Rookie Quinshon Judkins ranks as RB16 by points and RB17 by value on DraftKings and RB14 by points and RB22 by value on FanDuel, making him one of the more relevant Browns while keeping him only loosely relevant to the slate. Judkins sees solid volume with 17.4 attempts per game, averaging 68.9 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per attempt. Judkins has scored five rushing touchdowns in escalating action as the season has unfolded, he averages 2.4 yards after contact per attempt and adds 1.6 receptions per game to slightly pad his touch count. Judkins is a viable option but the matchup is rough against a defense that allows just 3.8 yards per attempt on the ground to rank second.
Jerome Ford is a rotational back, ranking as RB42 by points on DraftKings. He averages 2.3 attempts per game but contributes in the passing game with 2.1 receptions on 2.6 targets per game. Similarly, lightly involved Dylan Sampson ranks as RB44 by points on DraftKings. He sees 3.1 attempts per game and adds 2.1 receptions through the air. Sampson has one receiving touchdown on the board this season but neither running back has much value in a bad matchup.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Veteran pass-catcher Jerry Jeudy ranks as WR26 by points and WR8 by value on DraftKings while sitting at WR30 by points and WR29 by value on FanDuel. Jeudy’s value ranking on the DraftKings slate puts him firmly, but perhaps unfortunately on the board, given the quality of targets he is likely to see. The receiver does not have to do much to pay off his cheap price on that site, he still runs 37.1 routes per game and commands a 21.4% target share with a robust 37.68% air yards share but has been limited to just 0.96 yards per route run and one touchdown this season. A major culprit in the lack of production is a ridiculous 56.16% catchable target rate from Browns quarterbacks this season. Jeudy simply cannot succeed on 3.5 catchable targets per week.
Harold Fannin Jr. is a bright spot for value, ranking as TE11 by points and TE5 by value on DraftKings and TE10 by points and TE5 by value on FanDuel. He runs 27.1 routes per game and sees an 18.5% target share. Fannin is efficient with 1.56 yards per route run and 4.6 yards after the catch per reception and has hauled in two touchdowns this season.
Cedric Tillman ranks as WR37 by points and WR31 by value on DraftKings. He runs 31.8 routes per game and sees an 8.2% target share on routes run since his return. Tillman is averaging 0.88 yards per route run and has found the end zone twice in limited action. Tillman caught three passes for 52 yards on four targets last week, he has not found the end zone in two games since coming back from injury in Week 10.
David Njoku ranks as TE17 by points and TE14 by value on DraftKings and TE23 by points and TE24 by value on FanDuel. He runs 27.9 routes per game with a 13.2% target share on routes run, keeping him involved in the team’s lousy offense. Njoku contributes 1.15 yards per route run and 5.8 yards after the catch per reception, and has put three touchdowns on the board so far this season while drawing seven red zone targets for the year. Njoku is a threat in scoring territory but his volume is light and the quality of passes is going to be bad.
Isaiah Bond is a depth receiver, ranking as WR73 by points on DraftKings. He runs 23.6 routes per game with a 9.1% target share. Bond has an average depth of target of 13.0 yards but is averaging just 0.58 yards per route run and is unlikely to see a good target down the field from Sanders.
The Browns stack sits near the bottom of the barrel, ranking 20th in DraftKings points and 14th in value, while landing 20th in points and 17th in value on FanDuel, the upside is artificial with Sanders at the helm, even the points per dollar is created simply by virtue of bargain bin pricing against a fairly good defense. The Browns are thin for pieces but a few of the point-per-dollar options like Jerry Jeudy and Harold Fannin Jr. can be used for standalone shares.
Dallas Cowboys
Game Total: 47.5 / DAL +3.0 (22.25)
Offense: 40.0% rush / 60.0% pass / 29.6 ppg / 4.7 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass / 20.1 ppg / 5.80% sack / 1.76% int
Key Player: Dak Prescott
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: CeeDee Lamb, Javonte Williams (on/off), George Pickens, Jake Ferguson, Jaydon Blue (on/off), KaVontae Turpin, Ryan Flournoy, Jalen Tolbert (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert, Jahan Dotson
Game Notes:
Quarterback
At the helm of the aggressive Dallas passing attack, Dak Prescott ranks as QB7 by points but QB16 by value on DraftKings and QB7 by points and QB10 by value on FanDuel. Prescott slings the ball a whopping 36.2 times per game and averages 258.7 passing yards per game and 7.1 per attempt on 7.4 intended air yards. The quarterback has thrown 21 touchdowns passes against just six interceptions and his efficiency stands out with a completion percentage over expected of 5.7. Prescott’s volume remains elite, he is a talented accurate passer in an aggressive offense and he has two or three premium weapons at his disposal but draws a sixth-ranked Philadelphia defense that allows just 6.6 yards per attempt against the pass. Prescott is a viable option with explosive upside in the guise of a mid-board play in Week 12.
Running Backs
Running back Javonte Williams has been solid all season with 5.0 yards per rush attempt and a 7.45% explosive play rate. Williams ranks as RB8 by points and RB14 by value on DraftKings and RB7 by points and RB17 by value on FanDuel. He is carries the ball 16.1 times per game and adds another 3.6 potential touches in the passing game, putting him right around the magic number of 20 potential touches each week. Williams has found the end zone eight times on the ground and once in the passing attack, and his efficiency metrics include 2.8 yards after contact per attempt and a broken tackle rate of 6.83%. The running back is a prime player in this offense, he could stand out if the team leans a bit into the run against a defense yielding an 18th-ranked 4.3 yards per rush attempt on the season.
Malik Davis is a deep reserve with Jaydon Blue out of action again. Davis checks into Week 12 ranking as RB47 by points on DraftKings and 44th by points on FanDuel. Davis gains 3.7 yards per rush attempt in limited action this season and us unlikely to see enough chances to matter.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Star receiver CeeDee Lamb is an elite option, ranking as WR3 by points and WR15 by value on DraftKings and WR4 by points and WR12 by value on FanDuel. Lamb commands a heavy workload with 8.7 targets per game on 33.3 routes and an air yards share of 25.2%. The receiver picks up 2.39 yards per route run and averages 79.6 receiving yards per game. Somehow Lamb only has two receiving touchdowns in the prolific passing attack, he has been explosive with 4.8 yards after the catch per reception good for 0.9 yards above expectation after the catch per catch. Lamb is a premium player against a tough defense but he is the go-to when stacking around Prescott.
With 2.43 yards per route run, George Pickens ranks as WR8 by points and WR28 by value on DraftKings and WR7 by points and WR16 by value on FanDuel. The receiver stepped up admirably while Lamb was out of action, he is a star in his own right and has slightly outperformed Lamb in the overall this year. Pickens runs 37.3 routes and sees 8.3 targets per game with an average depth of target of 11.9 yards keeping him in big play territory. Pickens enters Week 12 in a tie for the team lead with seven touchdown catches on the board, he and Jake Ferguson have been highly productive and could be a solid angle into this stack that leaves a probably more popular Lamb on the board.
Jake Ferguson ranks as TE7 by points and TE24 by value on DraftKings and TE8 by points and TE12 by value on FanDuel. The highly involved tight end runs 31.2 routes per game and sees a significant target share of 19.6% on routes run, good for 7.1 looks per game. Ferguson is a key red zone target with 15 looks inside the 20 and averages 40.0 receiving yards per game on his way to tying Pickens with seven touchdowns. Ferguson is a go-to tight end in any configuration but is at his best in Prescott+2 builds.
KaVontae Turpin is a depth piece, ranking as WR61 by points on DraftKings. He runs 18.3 routes per game and is averaging 1.26 yards per route run. Turpin adds value with 23.0 receiving yards per game and has scored one touchdown on the year. Ryan Flournoy ranks as WR63 by points on DraftKings. He is averaging 1.47 yards per route run on 15.1 routes per game. Flournoy has scored two touchdowns and is averaging 20.0 receiving yards per game. Jalen Tolbert and Hunter Luepke could also see light involvement down the board, but the Cowboys quality will typically come from the top four options.
The Dallas stack presents a mix of high-end potential and value concerns at high star-caliber prices up and down. Dallas slots into Week 12 ranking fourth in DraftKings points but 17th in value. On FanDuel, they sit fifth in points and 15th in value. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are a top 1/1A tandem in either order, with Ferguson adding major scoring potential as an affordable tight end to go along in Prescott+2 builds. Javonte Williams should see quality chances against a middling rush defense and could end up the leading piece from this offense, he is playable both in and out of stacks.
Detroit Lions
Game Total: 50.0 / DET -13.5 (31.75)
Offense: 45.77% rush / 54.23% pass / 29.2 ppg / 4.6 ypa rush / 8.0 ypa pass
oppDEF: 5.5 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 27.3 ppg / 5.69% sack / 1.05% int
Key Player: Jared Goff
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams, David Montgomery (on/off), Brock Wright, Isaac TeSlaa, Kalif Raymond (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Wan’Dale Robinson, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Theo Johnson, Darius Slayton, Devin Singletary (on/off), Isaiah Hodgins
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Jared Goff is at the wheel of a high-powered offense that drops in as Week 12’s slate-leading stack by points on both sites. Goff ranks as QB5 by points and QB4 by value on DraftKings and QB5 by points and by value on FanDuel. He averages 249.0 passing yards per game with 21 touchdowns and 8.0 yards per pass attempt while throwing just four interceptions in the aggressive attack. Goff completes passes 3.3 points over expectation by CPOE and throws 31 passes per game, putting him in the middle of the board for volume. The team’s elite skill players and playcalling put this quarterback and his stack in position to succeed on a regular basis. Goff and his mates are a go-to play across the industry as heavy favorites at a 31.5-point implied team total that leads the week.
Running Backs
Running back Jahmyr Gibbs ranks as RB2 by points and RB4 by value on DraftKings and RB2 by points and RB3 by value on FanDuel. Gibbs and David Montgomery operate a star-level tandem with Gibbs averaging 14.0 rush attempts and 73.2 rushing yards per game, and finding the end zone eight times on the ground. His explosiveness shines with 1.5 yards after contact per attempt and a broken tackle rate of 4.29%. Through the air, Gibbs adds 3.7 receptions and 7.8 yards per target with two touchdowns. The running back sees pressure for production from the presence of Montgomery, but it rarely creates problems, Gibbs is a regular producer of fantasy scoring and he draws the league’s worst rush defense with the Giants yielding a ridiculous 5.5 yards per rush attempt this year.
David Montgomery provides a strong complement to Gibbs, ranking as RB18 by points and RB9 by value on DraftKings and RB18 by points and RB14 by value on FanDuel. Montgomery’s value is touchdown-driven, he averages 11.0 attempts and 4.5 yards per attempt, scoring five times along the way this year. The capable back is the second option behind Gibbs, but his cheap price and light (1.9 targets/game) involvement in the passing attack keep him in play for light DFS exposure as a low-owned touchdown play in a popular stack.
Receivers & Tight Ends
The standout receiver on the Lions is Amon-Ra St. Brown, an elite weapon who ranks as WR2 by points and by value on both DraftKings and FanDuel. St. Brown draws 9.4 targets per game with a massive 39.6% air yards share on a 7.9-yard average depth of target leading to 2.33 yards per route run. With 73.5 receiving yards per game eight touchdowns, St. Brown is the model of production at the receiver position from the top shelf, he is a go-to play once again both in and out of stacks of Lions.
Jameson Williams has come on strong since the Lions changed-up play-calling duties. He ranks as WR7 by points and WR4 by value on DraftKings and WR6 by points and WR7 by value on FanDuel in Week 12 after scoring in three straight weeks. Williams runs 31.9 routes and sees five targets per game overall put has drawn six or more chances for three straight contests. The receiver averages 56.2 receiving yards per game, and a whopping 11.2 per target on his 14.3-yard ADOT, and has five touchdowns. Williams is a big play waiting to happen, he is fantastic in and out of stacks again in Week 12.
The balance of skill options from the Lions see decidedly less involvement. Brock Wright steps in at tight end, ranking as TE24 by points and TE28 by value on DraftKings. He runs 9.8 routes per game and sees 1.8 targets. Wright averages 7.9 receiving yards per game and has scored two touchdowns. Kalif Raymond is a depth option, ranking as WR67 by points on DraftKings. He runs 16.0 routes per game with 1.7 targets. Raymond only delivers 0.71 yards per route run. Isaac TeSlaa ranks as WR56 by points on DraftKings. He runs 10.0 routes per game with a deep average depth of target of 15.4 yards. TeSlaa has two touchdowns on the board on extremely light involvement.
The Lions stack is the crown jewel of the slate, ranking as Stack 1 in DraftKings points and Stack 2 in value. On FanDuel, they maintain that dominance, sitting as Stack 1 in points and Stack 2 in value. The matchup on the ground is pristine, with the Giants’ pathetic defense ranking 33rd in yards allowed per rush attempt at 5.5, Gibbs and Montgomery should both hit the board with quality in Week 12. Through the air, the matchup is slightly tougher but still manageable, New York comes in ranking 13th in yards allowed per pass attempt at 6.9, but the Lions are a highly skilled bunch that should outperform on Sunday. Goff +1 or +2 builds are highly advisable across the industry, the team offers plenty of angles to scoring even from lower-owned lower-cost approaches in an elite matchup.
Green Bay Packers
Game Total: 41.0 / GB -6.5 (23.75)
Offense: 45.87% rush / 54.13% pass / 24.0 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 7.8 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass / 23.2 ppg / 8.39% sack / 1.06% int
Key Player: Jordan Love
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, Emanuel Wilson (on/off), Dontayvion Wicks, John FitzPatrick, Luke Musgrave
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones Sr. (on/off), Jordan Mason (on/off), TJ Hockenson, Jalen Nailor
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Jordan Love anchors the capable Packers offense, ranking as QB9 by points and QB14 by value on DraftKings and QB9 by points and QB6 by value on FanDuel. Love manages the game well, averaging 242.1 passing yards per game with a solid 15 touchdowns against just three interceptions while throwing for a healthy 7.8 yards per pass attempt on 8.0 intended air yards, while pushing attempts per game up to 31.0 from a lackluster pace earlier in the year. The quarterback maintains impressive efficiency with a completion percentage sitting 4.2 points over expectation by CPOE. Love leads a robust group of pass-catchers, any of whom can break a big play downfield, giving him quick-strike ability and the chance to rack up significant DFS scoring against a defense allowing 7.3 yards per pass attempt on the season.
Running Backs
Emanuel Wilson will presumably step in for injured veteran Josh Jacobs in Week 12, though Jacobs is technically questionable and expected to at least try to warm up on Sunday. Wilson would be leading a thin backfield committee and ranking as RB12 by points but RB3 by value on DraftKings and RB9 by points and RB4 by value on FanDuel if that scenario holds. He sees a modest workload of 5.3 rushing attempts per game during normal action, turning that into 4.2 yards per rush attempt. Wilson stepped in to contribute 40 rush yards on 11 attempts, including a touchdown, and added nine yards on his lone catch with Jacobs out of commission midway through last week’s contest. The running back is a value play and will get popular across the industry against a mid-board defense that yields an 11th-ranked 4.1 yards per rush attempt but just 0.80 rushing touchdowns per game.
Chris Brooks serves as a deep depth option, ranking as RB33 by points on DraftKings and FanDuel. Brooks only carried the ball once last week, gaining eight yards, he has two other carries for one yard each all season, though he has produced here and there in the passing game and could see a few targets in Week 12.
In any situation, if Jacobs plays, he should be considered full-value and playable.
Receivers & Tight Ends
In a deep receiver room, Romeo Doubs operates as the nominal primary target, ranking as WR20 by points and WR17 by value on DraftKings and WR21 by points and WR17 by value on FanDuel on the Week 12 slate. Doubs runs a consistent 28.4 routes per game and commands a healthy 21.9% target share while posting 1.76 yards per route run and finding paydirt four times. Doubs operates at a significant 12.4-yard ADOT for a 34.97% air yards share to lead the team by a wide margin, though all of the Packers primary receivers can get down the field to get it. Doubs is the top option but not nearly the last, he is highly functional both in and out of stacks.
Christian Watson offers explosive field-stretching ability, ranking as WR27 by points and WR23 by value on DraftKings. He runs 28.0 routes per game with a massive average depth of target of 22.6 yards, the deepest on the team in his limited chances this season. Over four games since returning, Watson averages a strong 58.5 receiving yards per game and has scored twice. He is highly efficient on his opportunities, posting a robust 2.09 yards per route run for another team-leading mark.
Matthew Golden is a rotational receiver, ranking as WR35 by points on DraftKings and WR37 by points on FanDuel with limited value metrics. Golden is a rookie who has seen on-and-off action depending on the availability of others in the offense. He runs 22.2 routes per game and earns a respectable 17.6% target share but gains just 1.43 yards per route run and has yet to find the end zone for his first career score. The rookie is a dart throw at a fair but not cheap price across sites.
Dontayvion Wicks is a compelling depth option who ranks as WR50 by points on DraftKings and WR49 by points on FanDuel. Wicks is little more than a low-volume dart throw, but he is more talented than many receivers in that role and he could see an any-given-week uptick in chances. Wicks gets down the field on a 12.6-yard ADOT for a 17.64% air yards share in the offense while delivering 1.15 yards per route run.
With the team’s top option out of action, tight end play should be somewhat limited for Green Bay again this week. John FitzPatrick is a punt option at tight end, ranking as TE35 by points on DraftKings. He runs very limited routes but has managed to scrape together one touchdown this season. Luke Musgrave ranks as TE40 by points on DraftKings. He is a non-factor in the current rotation, running just 12.2 routes per game and averaging a paltry 11.0 receiving yards on one target per game. In the same situation last week, tight ends were targeted only three times, with Musgrave drawing two to FitzPatrick’s one look.
The Packers stack lands in a mediocre spot this week, ranking 14th in DraftKings points and 11th in value, while sitting 14th in points and seventh in value on FanDuel, though they face a beatable Minnesota defense in a rivalry game with a 23.75-point implied team total supporting upside. The ground matchup offers a moderate challenge, as the Vikings defense allows 4.1 yards per rush attempt, ranking 11th. However, the passing game faces a much softer test against a secondary that allows a generous 7.3 yards per pass attempt to rank 23rd. Stacks of Jordan Love + 2, with a focus on the deep wide receiver group is the preferred approach, though there is also running back value available if Jacobs does not play. If the veteran is active, he slots right into stacks with steady involvement, if his understudy is up things get sticky as Wilson could easily cede passing downs to Brooks and split the scoring.
Indianapolis Colts
Game Total: 50.0 / IND +3.5 (23.25)
Offense: 44.26% rush / 55.74% pass / 32.1 ppg / 5.3 ypa rush / 8.2 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.2 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass / 18.1 ppg / 7.12% sack / 2.09% int
Key Player: Daniel Jones
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Kareem Hunt (on/off), Hollywood Brown, Noah Gray (on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
After starting the season in rare form, quarterback Daniel Jones now sits with 15 touchdown passes against seven interceptions while putting up 8.3 yards per pass attempt with a CPOE mark that sits 5.7 points over expectation. The quarterback has been solid with a few exceptions throughout the season, he adds major value on the ground as well, regularly picking up scores with his legs. Jones leads the offense, ranking as QB10 by points but QB20 by value on DraftKings and QB10/QB13 on the FanDuel slate. Overall, Jones averages 265.9 passing yards per game and has been over 300 passing yards twice on the season. The quarterback has only thrown two touchdown passes against four interceptions in the last two games ahead of the bye week, however, casting a bit of doubt over the strong first eight games. Jones offers strong mobility to pad scoring, averaging 14.3 rushing yards per game and scoring five rushing touchdowns on the season, and he is at the head of the table for Stack 6 by points on DraftKings and Stack 8 by points on FanDuel against a gettable Kansas City defense.
Running Backs
All-world running back Jonathan Taylor is an elite option yet again in Week 12, ranking as RB3 by points and RB19 by value on DraftKings and RB1 by points and RB7 by value on FanDuel against a defense that allows 4.2 yards per rush attempt to sit 15th in the league. Taylor dominates the backfield with 18.9 rushing attempts per game, averaging an impressive 113.9 rushing yards to easily lead the league. The running back’s ridiculous 6.0 yards per rush attempt is good for a full 1.6 yards over expectation per attempt, there is simply no one better at the position in 2025. Taylor has found the end zone 15 times on the ground, he is ultra-efficient with 3.2 yards after contact per attempt and adds value in the passing game with 3.0 receptions and 26.0 receiving yards per game, picking up extra touches from his 3.2 weekly targets, and even resulting in two bonus touchdowns on four red zone targets in the passing attack.
Tyler Goodson serves as a depth piece, ranking as RB46 by points and RB46 by value on DraftKings and RB45 by points and RB43 by value on FanDuel. He sees minimal work behind the volume monster, averaging just 1.0 rushing attempt and 2.4 rushing yards per game.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Receiver Michael Pittman Jr. ranks as WR16 by points and WR25 by value on DraftKings and WR20 by points and WR18 by value on FanDuel. He runs 32.1 routes per game and draws a 22.3% target share on routes run, while posting a good-not-great 1.81 yards per route run to sit third on the team. Pittman averages has hauled in six touchdowns on the season and gains 4.0 yards after the catch per reception on his 8.4-yard average depth of target, giving him a +0.6 mark against expectation for yards after the catch per reception. The receiver draws a 21.39% air yards share and has seen the best opportunities from Jones, given an 82.86% catchable target rate. Pittman Jr. should probably be more productive than his respectable but not destructive numbers, he has plenty of room to grow and a suddenly capable quarterback to help. Pittman Jr. is a fine pairing in Jones+ stacks on both sites.
Tyler Warren is a strong tight end option, ranking as TE4 by points and TE15 by value on DraftKings and TE4 by points and TE6 by value on FanDuel and possessing slate-breaking skills in his rookie season. Warren runs 31.0 routes per game and picks up a significant 21.3% target share on routes run. The tight end Warren averages 61.7 receiving yards per game and a terrific 9.2 per target and has scored three touchdowns. The tight end has been efficient with 1.99 yards per route run on his 5.5-yard average depth of target and he even punched on in for a rushing touchdown earlier in the year. Warren is a go-to both in and out of Colts stacks this week.
Alec Pierce offers explosive upside, ranking as WR23 by points and WR20 by value on DraftKings and WR22 by points and WR15 by value on FanDuel. Pierce runs 32.4 routes per game with a deep average depth of target of 20.2 yards getting him into atomic territory while remaining efficient with a team-leading 2.26 yards per route run. Pierce averages 73.1 receiving yards per game and 11.3 per target but has scored only one touchdown on the year. The culprit there is probably Jones, who has managed just a 53.85% catchable target rate on those deep strike attempts. With Jones failing to connect with Pierce there is a bit of tarnish on the option, but they only have to make it work once in Week 12 to bend things to their will. Alec Pierce is an easily playable quick-strike weapon on both sites.
Josh Downs ranks as WR30 by points and WR35 by value on DraftKings and WR35 by points and WR44 by value on FanDuel. Downs runs 23.4 routes per game and sees a 15.3% target share while working the underneath routes at just a 6.6-yard ADOT that only gets beyond the tight end’s typical depth. Downs posts 35.1 receiving yards per game and has scored three touchdowns, he is a red zone option with eight targets inside the 20 on the season and makes for a rotational piece in an abundance of Colts stacks.
The Colts are slight underdogs in what could prove to be an important 49.0-point game against the Chiefs. They look very playable with the opportunity for more, ranking as Stack 6 in DraftKings points but Stack 19 by value on the site, while sitting as Stack 8/12 on the FanDuel slate. The matchup is relatively balanced, with the opposing defense ranking 15th in yards allowed per rush attempt at 4.2 and 20th in yards allowed per pass attempt at 7.2. The Colts offer two major standalone weapons in Jonathan Taylor and Tyler Warren, who are also a major pieces of stacking this team. Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs are on/off options for standalone play and more critical to stacks, while Alec Pierce can provide a bit more big explosive play flare to a non-stacked entry. All of the pass-catchers are in play when stacking Jones+2 builds.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Game Total: 47.5 / JAC -3.0 (25.25)
Offense: 44.76% rush / 55.24% pass / 24.0 ppg / 4.3 ypa rush / 6.4 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 25.6 ppg / 5.25% sack / 1.75% int
Key Player: Trevor Lawrence
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Travis Etienne Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington, Brenton Strange, Bhayshul Tuten (on/off), Dyami Brown, Tim Patrick
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Trey McBride, Michael Wilson, Zonovan “Bam” Knight (on/off), Greg Dortch, Michael Carter (on/off), Xavier Weaver, Elijah Higgins
Game Notes:
Quarterback
The Jaguars drop into Week 12 looking like contenders with an implied team total of 25.25 on the strong side of a 47.5-point matchup against the Cardinals. With quality showing on the Vegas board, Trevor Lawrence ranks as QB8 by points and rockets to QB1 by value on DraftKings while landing as QB8 by points and QB4 by value on FanDuel. Anyone who has ever utilized Lawrence as a key in stacking in the past just read that sentence and felt the cold grip of failure seize them in uncomfortable places, the quarterback is far from a reliable DFS option and tends to disappoint in key spots. Lawrence throws for just 215.1 yards per game with 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions on the season, posting a lousy 6.3 yards per pass attempt on 33.8 chances per game. His -5.6 CPOE mark leaves much to be desired, however, he boosts his floor with a touch of mobility, averaging 18.1 rushing yards per game on 4.9 attempts and finding the end zone five times on the ground. Lawrence draws a Cardinals defense that sits 13th against the pass with 6.9 yards allowed per attempt and 18th against the run at 4.3 yards allowed per attempt, they are not good at pressuring the quarterback, giving him opportunity to find capable pass-catchers. The quarterback’s biggest appeal is that he is quite cheap across the industry at just $5,100 on DraftKings and $7,000 on FanDuel. Trevor Lawrence is an uncomfortably playable value option across the industry in Week 12.
Running Backs
Travis Etienne Jr. is having a very strong season. The running back exploded out of the gates and has not taken much time to look back on his working, gaining 4.7 yards per rush attempt for the season. Etienne Jr. ranks as RB11 by points and RB8 by value on DraftKings and RB12 by points and RB10 by value on FanDuel this week. He leads the backfield with 15.4 rushing attempts per game, averaging 0.3 yards over expectation per attempt with 2.4 yards after contact per attempt. Etienne has scored five rushing touchdowns and has another one in the passing game, where he sees excellent volume at 3.3 targets per contest. With the combined involvement, Etienne Jr. is quietly a reasonable volume option with 18.7 potential weekly touches.
Bhayshul Tuten is a rotational back, ranking as RB25 by points and RB23 by value on DraftKings and RB25 by points and RB24 by value on FanDuel. He sees 6.0 rushing attempts per game, averaging 23.8 yards with plenty of explosive ability but not enough opportunity to make it matter.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Jakobi Meyers is a primary target in this offense after a deadline deal brought him to Jacksonville. With Brian Thomas Jr. still out of action, Meyers steps into Week 12 ranking as WR15 by points and WR1 by value on DraftKings and WR16 by points and WR9 by value on FanDuel. The receiver had an OK game in his first outing with Jacksonville, posting 41 yards on 3-3 receiving over 17 routes run. He ran 19 routes on 46 snaps with the offense last week and caught five of six targets for 64 yards, though he did not score and has not been in the end zone while also holding the football all season. Meyers is the go-to option for pairing with Lawrence in +1 or +2 builds, he is talented and targeted, but not a lock for quality.
Parker Washington ranks as WR21 by points and WR24 by value on DraftKings and WR18 by points and WR6 by value on FanDuel. Washington drew only two targets despite running 26 routes last week, he was targeted seven times over 31 routes the week before and nine times in Week 9. The arrival of Jakobi Meyers took the ceiling out of Washington’s game but that does not take him off of the board in an appealing spot for stacking. Washington comes in with a fair rating and the probability of seeing more targeting than he did last week. The receiver is, at worst, a value play in this stack with a bit of standalone appeal as well. Washington works at a solid 11.7-yard ADOT for the season, putting him in decent range of a big strike and he is effective with 1.42 yards per route run on the year.
Brenton Strange ranks as TE14 by points and TE12 by value on DraftKings and TE16 by points and TE17 by value on FanDuel in his return to action. Strange has been on IR since Week 5, he had two standout games in Weeks 3 and 4 with six catches in each contest but he did not score in the first five games and remains largely a positional dart throw or stack padding in +2 builds, as well as being a strong option in Showdown formats for this game. Strange departed running 26.0 routes per game and drawing 4.8 targets, he should return to similar involvement as the top tight end in the passing attack.
Dyami Brown is a depth receiver, ranking as WR58 by points on DraftKings and WR64 on FanDuel. He runs 22.0 routes per game and sees 4.0 targets, picking up a modest 1.11 yards per route run despite a team-leading 14.2-yard average depth of target. The receiver has been inefficient after the catch at -0.6 yards against expectation per reception but one big catch downfield can change things in a hurry. Brown is a playable but less-than-appealing option in Week 12.
Tim Patrick ranks as WR60 by points on DraftKings. He runs limited routes and sees just 1.1 targets per game, hauling in less than a catch each week for 5.5 yards per target, but does have two cheap touchdowns on the board this year.
The Jaguars stack presents a solid value proposition, ranking as Stack 12 by DraftKings points but Stack 4 by value, while sitting as Stack 12/5 on FanDuel. Travis Etienne Jr. gets another quality matchup on the ground with the Cardinals defense yielding 4.3 yards per rush attempt and the passing attack goes against a defense allowing 6.9 yards per attempt to sit 13th overall. This is not a pushover spot but there are points on the board and the Jaguars are well positioned to take them. The team provides easily playable options at fair prices across all positions, with Etienne Jr. and Jakobi Meyers standing as the most appealing individual plays in other lineups. +1 and +2 stacks are easily in reach and can be filled out with premium price plays from other teams, given the strong stack value on both sites.
Kansas City Chiefs
Game Total: 50.0 / KC -3.5 (26.75)
Offense: 40.47% rush / 59.53% pass / 25.4 ppg / 4.5 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass / 20.6 ppg / 7.16% sack / 2.66% int
Key Player: Patrick Mahomes
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Kareem Hunt (on/off), Hollywood Brown, Noah Gray (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes leads the charge for Kansas City, ranking as QB4 by points and QB12 by value on DraftKings and QB4 by points and QB2 by value on FanDuel where he truly pops again this week. The quarterback helms the 2nd ranked stack for points on both sites in Week 12, with Kansas City also looking like a premium value play. Mahomes averages 262.5 passing yards per game and 7.3 per attempt, with 18 touchdown passes against just six interceptions on his strong 36 pass attempts per game. The quarterback manages to overcome his inefficient -2.1 CPOE mark, to the surprise of exactly no one. Mahomes is a star who is capable of adding value in the ground game as well, he has another four touchdowns rushing and is a sneaky intelligent runner. The quarterback is a go-to option in a premium game in which his team is favored and pulling a 26.25-point implied team total. If this one shoots out against the Colts, it is a fair bet that Mahomes is going to be relevant for DFS play across the industry.
Running Backs
Veteran running back Kareem Hunt ranks as RB17 by points but hops to RB6 by value on DraftKings and RB17 by points and RB8 by value on FanDuel where he sees similar price-based upside. Hunt is the nominal lead option in a fairly low-end backfield. He averages 8.6 rushing attempts per game for an OK 4.1 yards per attempt and 0.7 yards over expectation per attempt while scoring six times this season. Hunt adds only minimal passing game value, picking up a reception per game and scoring once in the passing attack. The veteran is playable for value but becomes very touchdown-dependent very quickly.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Rashee Rice is a top-tier receiver who ranks as WR4 by points and WR14 by value on DraftKings and WR3 by points and WR4 by value on FanDuel at a very fair $8,100. Rice draws just a 10.2% target share on 30.0 routes per game, drawing .29 targets per route for 2.11 yards per route run over the course of his season. The receiver picks up 63.3 receiving yards per game and has scored three touchdowns in four games this season. Rice is a highly efficient receiver and he is interesting with 6.2 yards after the catch per reception, though that mark actually falls -0.4 yards below expectation on those catches.
Travis Kelce remains a focal point in the Kansas City offense and at the tight end position in general, ranking as TE3 by points and value on DraftKings and FanDuel in Week 12. Kelce has four touchdown catches on the board this season while drawing a robust 19.2% target share on 33.6 routes per game, totaling to 63.1 receiving yards per game or an outstanding 9.6 per target. Kelce is a reliable target who draws an 83.3% catchable ball rate from his longtime partner in crime.
Wideout Xavier Worthy offers explosive upside, he checks into Week 12 ranking as WR24 by points and WR18 by value on DraftKings and WR27 by points and WR28 by value on FanDuel. Worthy runs 29.1 routes per game and sees a 13.1% target share on routes run, settling him into lower-volume territory than his premium teammates but not knocking him off of the ability podium. Worthy works at a 12.0-yard average depth of target and draws a 20.47% air yards share that rates second on the squad, he has major big play upside, even though that has only resulted in one touchdown catch this year. Worthy could find value on any given slate by breaking a gadget play as well, teh team looks to get the ball in his hands to utilize his speed.
Noah Gray is a rotational tight end, ranking as TE28 by points and TE19 by value on DraftKings and TE28 by points and TE27 by value on FanDuel. He runs 18.1 routes per game but catches just 1.3 passes on 2.4 targets each week and needs the end zone to make any difference.
Tyquan Thornton sees a team-leading 28.97% air yards share on a ridiculous 26.7-yard average depth of target that puts him among the biggest potential weapons on the rack. Of course, the success rate leaves a bit to be desired, Thornton has three touchdown catches on th eseason and sees just three tragets per game over his 19.7 routes. Mahomes has gotten the ball near him with a 60.0% catchable target rate on the year, they only need to connect once or twice at that depth to make a dent in DFS scoring. Thronton is more a lightning-in-a-bottle option than a reliable weapon, but he is playable in an abundance of stacks or as a cheap dart throw at a big play.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is a depth receiver, ranking as WR70 by points on DraftKings and sees little to no value at light involvement with 3.0 targets per game.
The Chiefs stack is an elite option, they rank as Stack 2 by points and Stack 3 by value on DraftKings points and third in value, while landing as Stack 2 in points and Stack 1 in value on FanDuel. The matchup is middle-of-the-road, with the opposing defense ranking 11th in yards allowed per rush attempt at 4.1 and 11th in yards allowed per pass attempt at 6.8, but a healthy Vegas total and game environment that could push scoring in the right situation. The Chiefs are an ideal team to stack as well, their skill players pop for value in stacks, with only Kelce truly standing out as an out-of-stack option (Rice is also fine). Mahomes +1 or +2 builds are excellent options and the Colts offer major potential for bring-back weapons.
Las Vegas Raiders
Game Total: 36.0 / LV -4.0 (20.0)
Offense: 39.72% rush / 60.28% pass / 15.5 ppg / 3.6 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.9 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass / 23.4 ppg / 10.96% sack / 3.46% int
Key Player: Geno Smith
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Brock Bowers, Ashton Jeanty, Tre Tucker, Michael Mayer, Tyler Lockett, Raheem Mostert, Dont’e Thornton Jr., Jack Bech (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Quinshon Judkins, Jerry Jeudy, Harold Fannin Jr., Cedric Tillman, David Njoku, Isaiah Bond (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Low-end quarterback Geno Smith ranks as QB20 by points and QB15 by value on DraftKings and QB20 by points and QB18 by value on FanDuel. He averages just 208.2 passing yards per game with 12 touchdowns against a messy 13 interceptions on the season, while throwing for just 6.7 yards per pass attempt. Smith’s efficiency has been lacking with a completion percentage over expected of -1.7, he is a lackluster option in every sense and he only has one truly desirable skill player on his side in tight end Brock Bowers.
Running Backs
Running back Ashton Jeanty offers moderate appeal. The rookie ranks as RB9 by points and RB11 by value on DraftKings and RB10 by points and RB11 by value on FanDuel. He sees fair volume with 14.9 rushing attempts per game but posts jut just 3.7 per attempt for -0.2 against expectation per attempt. Jeanty has scored four rushing touchdowns this season, giving him limited DFS quality for the involvement. Through the air, he adds 2.9 receptions and 16.3 receiving yards per game, with three receiving touchdowns to boost his value somewhat in the overall sense. Jeanty is a playable non-priority on both sites this week.
Raheem Mostert is a depth option, ranking as RB40 by points and RB38 by value on DraftKings and RB40 by points and RB41 by value on FanDuel. There is simply not enough to do with Mostert seeing just 2.7 rushing attempts per game and averaging 0.9 receptions per game.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Brock Bowers is a standout tight end, ranking as TE2 by points and TE9 by value on DraftKings and TE2 by points and TE7 by value on FanDuel, he is second to only Trey McBride for upside on any given slate. Bowers runs 31.7 routes per game, seeing the same involvement in the offense as the team’s leading wide receivers while drawing an 18.3% target share on routes run. Bowers gains 2.05 yards per route, he is a highly efficient weapon in a bad offense who can Hoover up targets. The tight end puts up 65.0 receiving yards per game and has scored three touchdowns in his limited action. At a still fair $6,000/$7,400 across sites, Bowers offers both scoring and value potential in Week 12.
The leading option in a bad group of receivers, Tre Tucker is ranking as WR29 by points and WR38 by value on DraftKings and WR25 by points and WR23 by value on FanDuel. He runs 32.8 routes per game and sees 5.4 targets which he turns into 50.2 yards per game or 9.3 yards per target on an 8.7-yard ADOT. The receiver is effective but not standout with 1.53 yards per route run, he would be a good second or third man, he is miscast in the lead role. Three of Tucker’s five touchdown catches came in one big outing, if he managed to repeat that performance he would win another slate, in all realistic outcomes he is no more than average.
Michael Mayer ranks as TE23 by points and TE25 by value on DraftKings and TE22 by points and TE25 by value on FanDuel. He runs 17.5 routes per game and sees 3.9 targets but those numbers gained bulk while Bowers was out. Mayer still sees action with the lead tight end back in the mix, but he should be expected to do less and is truly just a dart at a cheap touchdown.
Tyler Lockett is a limited option, ranking as WR53 by points and WR53 by value on DraftKings and WR58 by points and WR58 by value on FanDuel. Lockett runs 20.1 routes per game with a 10.0% target share for the season, he was brought to rejoin Smith after a lousy first half and has caught eight passes for 77 yards combined over two games since joining the Raiders.
Dont’e Thornton Jr. is a deep threat, ranking as WR64 by points on DraftKings and WR70 by points on FanDuel. He runs just 19.6 routes per game but draws a deep average depth of target at 16.4 yards. Thornton is no more than a boom-or-bust dart at a big play, those have been difficult to find in this offense. Similarly, Jack Bech is a depth receiver, ranking as WR74 by points on DraftKings and WR77 by points on FanDuel. He runs limited routes but sees 1.2 targets per game despite the draft capital invested in him. Until something changes, Bech is mostly an afterthought, his 19-yard catch in Week 11 was his only catch in the last three games.
The Raiders are a low-end option that ranks 15th in DraftKings points and 18th in value, while sitting 15th in points and 18th in value on FanDuel. The matchup on the ground is tough, with the opposing defense ranking fourth in yards allowed per rush attempt at 3.9, potentially bottling up the already inefficient Ashton Jeanty. Brock Bowers is easily the go-to option from this offense, in the event that someone breaks in and forces you to play an option from the Raiders, the rest of this team is largely best left on the shelf.
Minnesota Vikings
Game Total: 41.0 / MIN +6.5 (17.25)
Offense: 38.68% rush / 61.32% pass / 21.8 ppg / 4.7 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.8 ypa rush / 6.0 ypa pass / 19.6 ppg / 6.43% sack / 1.15% int
Key Player: JJ McCarthy
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones Sr. (on/off), Jordan Mason (on/off), TJ Hockenson, Jalen Nailor
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, Emanuel Wilson (on/off), Dontayvion Wicks, John FitzPatrick, Luke Musgrave
Game Notes:
Quarterback
The quality of the Vikings stack is going to live and die with the team’s ability to get anything out of J.J. McCarthy at the quarterback spot. The second-year (but first year actually playing) man slots in ranking as QB15 by points and QB17 by value on DraftKings and QB15 by points and QB14 by value on FanDuel. McCarthy is completing just 53.0% of his passes, 7.3 points below expectation by CPOE. He averages 168.4 passing yards per game and 6.0 per attempt, despite having major weapons on his side in the passing game. With six touchdowns and eight interceptions it seems safe to call the early draft pick a disappointment – though it is far too early to apply a “bust” label. McCarthy struggles with accuracy and depth, while he takes shots at a 10.1-yard intended air yards mark, his completed air yards land at just 4.0, as he drags down even an elite receiver like Justin Jefferson. McCarthy is difficult to play in Week 12 with a challenging Green Bay defense that has held opposing passers to a league-low 6.0 yards per attempt for the season.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones Sr. ranks as RB13 by points and RB10 by value on DraftKings and RB13 by points and RB9 by value on FanDuel, he is a steady, playable option from week to week but not much more outside of the odd multi-touchdown effort. Jones has been efficient in gaining 4.9 yards per rush attempt but has managed just one rushing touchdown in the bad offense. He remains involved in the passing game, averaging 2.2 receptions and 18.7 receiving yards per game on 3.7 targets, giving him just over 12 potential touches per week and relegating him to a second or third tier of running back volume. Jones Sr. has a touchdown catch on the board but he needs to pick up scoring to gain any DFS value.
Jordan Mason ranks as RB34 by points and RB39 by value on DraftKings and RB35 by points and RB38 by value on FanDuel, the explosive back is more of a detriment to Jones Sr.’s ceiling potential than a true option on his own. Mason sees 10.8 rushing attempts per game, averaging 48.9 yards overall and 4.5 per attempt with five rushing touchdowns on the board. Mason is a loosely playable dart at a big broken run for a score but no more than that in a low-end stack against a very good defense that ranks second with only 3.8 yards allowed per rush attempt this season.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Justin Jefferson is an elite receiver who has been limited by a 60.22% catchable target rate and generally poor play from his teammates. Jefferson runs 36.6 routes per game and still posts an intriguing 2.04 yards per route run on a 38.55% air yards share over an 11.5-yard ADOT but he has only scored twice this season. The receiver dives into the Week 12 mix ranking as WR10 by points and WR36 by value on DraftKings and WR12 by points and WR25 by value on FanDuel. Jefferson is still a stud receiver, he gains an additional 5.4 yards per reception after the catch, which is good for 0.8 yards over expectation in the category per catch. The tough matchup is a fair tiebreaker between a superstar wide receiver and his struggling young quarterback, with Green Bay checking quality and Minnesota drawing a low 17.25-point implied team total, Jefferson is easily non-mandatory. What the receiver does present is a ceiling player at what will almost certainly be low public ownership once again this week.
Jordan Addison ranks as WR28 by points and WR42 by value on DraftKings and WR26 by points and WR36 by value on FanDuel. He runs 38.9 routes per game and sees 7.4 targets each week but manages to haul in just 4.0 of those on a 59.62% catchable target rate from the team’s lousy quarterbacks. Addison averages 58.9 receiving yards per game and has scored three touchdowns this year, he is effective with 1.51 yards per route run on a 14.3-yard average depth of target that keeps him in big play territory. Unfortunately, the nature of his targeting has only led to three touchdown catches for Addison this season, but that does lead this group of pass-catchers.
Tight end T.J. Hockenson ranks as TE13 by points but springs to TE6 by value on DraftKings, he is TE13/14 on FanDuel. Hockenson is involved in the passing game, running 31.9 routes per game and drawing a 15.3% target share on those routes. The tight end has been targeted eight times inside the 20-yard-line this season, resulting in two touchdown catches and minimal overall DFS quality.
Jalen Nailor ranks as WR57 by points and WR58 by value on DraftKings and WR55 by points and WR57 by value on FanDuel. He runs 27.3 routes per game and averages 31.8 receiving yards on a 12.5-yard ADOT that rivals the team’s top options. Nailor has scored two touchdowns this season and is a big play dart throw at value but not much more. The reliance on a bad quarterback against a good defense is simply not the place to mine value.
Josh Oliver is a rotational tight end, ranking as TE42 by points and TE41 by value on DraftKings and TE43 by points and TE42 by value on FanDuel. He runs limited routes but has scored two touchdowns on just 4.0 red zone targets. Adam Thielen is a depth option, ranking as WR75 by points on DraftKings and WR84 by points on FanDuel, the veteran is running just 12.3 routes and posting 0.56 yards per route run.
The Vikings stack ranks 16th in DraftKings points and 20th in value, while sitting 16th in points and 19th in value on FanDuel, they feel worse than that given the low-end quarterback play and a good opposing defense. Justin Jefferson is easily the top three to five options from this team all on his own, no one else comes close, but the next-most appealing click is probably Jordan Addison. Both receivers should be utilized in standalone roles, with limited shares for stacks or anyone else on this team.
New England Patriots
Game Total: 50.0 / NE -7.5 (28.75)
Offense: 46.88% rush / 53.12% pass / 26.5 ppg / 3.9 ypa rush / 8.8 ypa pass
oppDEF: 5.2 ypa rush / 7.8 ypa pass / 33.4 ppg / 3.98% sack / 2.37% int
Key Player: Drake Maye
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: TreVeyon Henderson (on/off), Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry, Rhamondre Stevenson (on/off), Mack Hollins, Kayshon Boutte, Kyle WIlliams, DeMario Douglas, Austin Hooper
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Tee Higgins, Chase Brown, Andrei Iosivas, Noah Fant, Mike Gesicki, Mitch Tinsley, Jermaine Burton (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
As the season reaches Week 12 it is no longer a surprise to see Drake Maye as a highly-ranked DFS option, he has simply been that good in his second year in the league. Maye offers a high floor, ranking as QB1 by points and QB2 by value on DraftKings, he is QB1/1 on the FanDuel slate. Maye averages 257.8 passing yards per game with a robust 20 touchdowns on 8.9 yards per pass attempt, a mark that matches his intended air yards per attempt exactly. The quarterback has been efficient and exceptional with a +8.6 CPOE mark, and he adds plenty of value with his rushing ability. Maye breaks with the ball 6.4 attempts per game, averaging 4.1 yards per attempt, and has found the end zone twice on the ground. The quarterback works with a receiver room that amounts to just a collection of guys without a standout star, thinking of what he will do when the team upgrades is a compelling distraction as we write this sentence at 2:30 Sunday morning. For now, Maye will work with solid weapons like Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins, Kayshon Boutte, and more in this offense, which has been more than enough. New England is a top-10 stack across the board on both sites.
Running Backs
Running back TreVeyon Henderson ranks as RB10 by points and RB18 by value on DraftKings and RB11 by points and RB13 by value on FanDuel after taking over the primary role in increasing percentages week after week. Henderson is up to 9.1 rushing attempts per game for 4.9 yards per attempt with five rushing touchdowns this season. Through the air, he adds 2.4 receptions and 15.0 receiving yards per game on 2.7 weekly targets. Henderson has been a big option over the past few games, carrying the ball 14 times in each of Weeks 9 and 10 and boosting that to 19 rush attempts in Week 11. Henderson gained 147 yards and scored twice on the ground in Week 10 at Tampa Bay but slipped to just 62 yards on the 19 carries against the Jets last week, though another two touchdowns certainly helped with the DFS scoring. The running back is a fair but non-mandatory option and seems best utilized outside of stacks or as a +2.
Rhamondre Stevenson ranks as RB23 by points and RB26 by value on DraftKings and RB23 by points and RB25 by value on FanDuel and comes into the week questionable to play. He leads the backfield in volume with 10.4 rushing attempts per game but those chances are dying on the vine as the running back has all sorts of issues from fumbling to an inefficient 3.4 yards per rush attempt. Stevenson has scored three rushing touchdowns and is also active in the passing game, averaging 2.0 receptions and 21.1 receiving yards per game but has not scored through the air.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Despite running a mere 22.8 routes per game, Stefon Diggs is a primary target, ranking as WR9 by points and WR19 by value on DraftKings and WR9 by points and WR8 by value on FanDuel. Diggs draws a steady 23.2% target share on routes run, putting him easily in the team lead on the mixed group of pass-catchers. Diggs draws 6.5 targets per game overall but spiked an 11-target day last week and eight the week before with Kayshon Boutte out of action. Diggs has scored three touchdowns and posts an absurdly efficient 2.63 yards per route run.
Hunter Henry is a reliable tight end for value and cheap touchdown-scoring potential. Henry has four scores on the season and ranks as a great value on DraftKings as TE6 by points and TE2 by value. He is TE5 by points and TE4 by value on FanDuel, where he provides scoring potential both in and out of Patriots stacks. Henry runs 25.8 routes per game and sees 4.8 targets, good for a 17.10% target share on routes run, over which he puts up 1.49 yards per route run despite a team-low 67.92% catchable target rate from his quarterback. Given just an 8.2-yard ADOT, one would expectthe highly accurate Maye to hit his tight end more effectively, as catchable balls normalize, Henry’s production may actually grow, he is an interesting option in Week 12.
Mack Hollins will be an interesting study this week with Boutte expected to return. Hollins took a step up in involvement and has been a productive receiver for the Patriots with Boutte out, he is a quality deep threat in any scenario. With the team returning to full strength, Hollins is ranking as WR38 by points and WR44 by value on DraftKings and WR33 by points and WR33 by value on FanDuel and will look to improve on the two touchdowns he has put on the board this season.
Kayshon Boutte ranks as WR45 by points and WR61 by value on DraftKings and WR46 by points and WR52 by value on FanDuel but could see a bit of an upgrade in the Sunday projections update. The receiver has missed a few weeks but should pick up where he left off at 22.7 routes run per game. Boutte found the end zone five times already this season and was emerging as a go-to scoring target for the team’s developing passer. With a 17.1-yard average depth of target that puts him in range of a big play at all times, Boutte is a quick-strike receiver who may not need to swipe volume back from Hollins and Diggs to deliver quality. At worst, Boutte is a great bolt-on piece in +2 builds, he can also be played as a cheap dart in non-stacked lineups.
Kyle Williams is a depth option, ranking as WR49 by points on DraftKings and WR51 by points on FanDuel. He runs 10.5 routes per game and averages just 0.80 yards per route run. DeMario Douglas ranks as WR54 by points on DraftKings and WR62 by points on FanDuel, he was a far more important piece of this offense last season and currently runs just 12.9 routes per game, though his three touchdown catches do draw the eye when combing through value darts at just $3,800.
Austin Hooper is a rotational tight end, ranking as TE30 by points on DraftKings and TE30 by points on FanDuel. He runs 12.4 routes per game and posts 1.40 yards per route run with one touchdown on the season.
The Patriots stack lands in a strong spot, ranking seventh in DraftKings points and eighth in value, while sitting seventh in points and third in value on FanDuel with upside driven by the premium quarterback and capable inexpensive pass-catchers. The one wrinkle is that there is a lot of unpredictability about just where the ball may go in the deep but similar receiver group. The matchup offers significant upside, as the opposing defense struggles mightily, ranking 30th in yards allowed per rush attempt at 5.2 and 29th in yards allowed per pass attempt at 7.8, creating opportunities for both facets of the offense. Maye +1 or +2 builds are a strong option, Henderson is playable in and out of stacks, and the Patriots pass-catchers should provide reasonable mid-board quality across wide receiver and tight end.
New Orleans Saints
Game Total: 40.0 / NO -2.5 (21.25)
Offense: 40.49% rush / 59.51% pass / 15.5 ppg / 3.7 ypa rush / 6.4 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass / 23.9 ppg / 10.73% sack / 2.83% int
Key Player: Tyler Shough
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara, Juwan Johnson, Devaughn Vele, Devin Neal (on/off), Taysom Hill (on/off), Foster Moreau (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Bijan Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts Sr., Tyler Allgeier, KhaDarel Hodge, David Sills V, Charlie Woerner
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Rookie quarterback Tyler Shough ranks as QB14 by points and leaps to QB3 by value on DraftKings for a dirt cheap $4,400. He is QB14 by points and QB12 by value on FanDuel where his price is $6,600 against the cap. Shough has three touchdown passes against two interceptions in his three games and averages 229.0 passing yards per game and 7.1 per pass attempt. The quarterback threw for 282 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 19-27 passing in his best performance last week, he has strong weapons on his side in Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson, as well as veteran running back Alvin Kamara against an easy-t0-beat defense. While Shough does not explode off the top of the page, his cheap price creates undeniable potential in DraftKings lineups, he is far less appealing on the blue site.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara is a steady presence, ranking as RB20 by points and RB15 by value on DraftKings and RB21 by points and RB19 by value on FanDuel but the veteran seems to be drawing closer to the end at just 3.6 yards per rush attempt this year. Kamara is down to just 12.8 carries per game, though he adds potential touches with 3.7 weekly targets. Kamara has only managed one rushing touchdown and three touchdown catches this year, far off of his formerly elite production. The running back is an involved member of the passing game, averaging 3.1 receptions and 18.2 receiving yards per game on 3.7 targets.
Devin Neal is a backup who is not overly likely to produce, ranking as RB37 by points and RB37 by value on DraftKings and RB38 by points and RB39 by value on FanDuel. He sees limited work, averaging 1.67 rushing attempts and 1.17 receptions per game.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Chris Olave is a top receiving option, ranking as WR6 by points and WR12 by value on DraftKings and WR8 by points and WR11 by value on FanDuel. Olave sees a 28.9% target share on routes run over his 35.5 routes per game, good for 9.5 raw targets and 6.0 catches each week for the season. Those numbers come from just a 66.32% catchable target rate, if Shough can get the ball more reliably near Olave, the star receiver could rapidly gain quality, Olave caught five of eight targets for 104 yards and a touchdown in last week’s game and could put up similar or better numbers against a lousy defense. With a 10.6-yard ADOT and 37.88% air yards share, Olave easily leads this team in potential and actual production. Olave averages 66.4 receiving yards per game and has scored four times this season, he is efficient with 1.87 yards per route run and has upside for much more.
Devaughn Vele ranks is not much more than a dart throw at value as WR40 by points and WR22 by value on DraftKings and WR39 by points and WR32 by value on FanDuel. In theory, Vele should be more involved in the passing game after the departure of Rashid Shaheed, in practice that amounted to three targets and one catch for 15 yards over 59 snaps last week. Vele works to a strong average depth of target at 12.7 yards, putting him in big play territory if Shough can deliver the ball.
Juwan Johnson is a solid tight end option who runs 31.4 routes per game and sees a 18.2% target share on routes run. Johnson averages 49.1 receiving yards per game and has scored three touchdowns this season but he will live and die with the quality of Shough’s throws. He is efficient with 1.56 yards per route run. Johnson slots in ranking as TE12 by points and TE16 by value on DraftKings and TE12 by points and TE11 by value on FanDuel.
Taysom Hill offers his usual versatility, a little bit passer, a little bit rusher, and a little bit pass-catcher, the Swiss Army Knife slots into Week 12 ranking as TE34 by points and TE36 by value on DraftKings and TE34 by points and TE35 by value on FanDuel. He averages 3.67 rushing attempts and 8.67 rushing yards per game, with one rushing touchdown. Through the air, he adds 0.5 receptions per game on limited targeting. Hill is rarely more than a wildcard play but he finds his way to DFS scoring at very low ownership from time to time.
The Saints stack ranks 17th in DraftKings points and 13th in value, while landing 17th in points and 16th in value on FanDuel, while they are slightly more playable than it may seem at a glance, given the lousy quality overall this season and the quarterback in question. The most playable option is easily Chris Olave, particularly in full-PPR formats. Stacking Shough+1 as a cheap skinny build is a viable approach, piling on options makes things less likely. The matchup on the ground is favorable, with the opposing defense ranking 24th in yards allowed per rush attempt at 4.7. The secondary offers an even softer target, ranking 25th in yards allowed per pass attempt at 7.4, creating potential for an upstart DFS day.
New York Giants
Game Total: 50.0 / NYG +13.5 (18.25)
Offense: 45.62% rush / 54.38% pass / 21.5 ppg / 4.2 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.0 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass / 21.6 ppg / 9.01% sack / 2.56% int
Key Player: Jameis Winston
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Wan’Dale Robinson, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Theo Johnson, Devin Singletary (on/off), Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins, Daniel Bellinger (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams, David Montgomery (on/off), Brock Wright, Isaac TeSlaa, Kalif Raymond (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
The first week of the Jameis Winston era in New York was fun but lackluster with the veteran completing 19 of 29 passes for 201 yards, while failing to throw a touchdown but tossing an interception to the guys in the other jerseys. Winston steps in as the starter again in Week 12, ranking as QB16 by points and QB13 by value on DraftKings and QB16 by points and QB15 by value on FanDuel. The quarterback remains a big-armed upside option who is as likely to throw multiple interceptions as he is to connect with his receivers for big scores. The Giants are facing a defense that yields just 6.8 yards per pass attempt and 4.0 yards per rush attempt, there is very little appeal outside of darts at big play action for GPPs, even then Winston has limited options in his lousy group of pass-catchers.
Running Backs
With a quality rush defense limiting opponents to just 4.0 yards per attempt to rank eighth, it seems likely that Detroit will take away any room for Tyrone Tracy Jr. to succeed out of the backfield. Tracy is currently ranking as RB21 by points and RB22 by value on DraftKings and RB20 by points and RB15 by value on FanDuel. Tracy Jr. gains 4.0 yards per rush attempt, moderate production that is only lightly bolstered by Tracy adds 2.0 receptions and for 5.3 yards per target. The running back has one rushing touchdown and zero touchdown catches this year and is no more than a mid-board mixer on both sites.
Devin Singletary operates in a rotational role, but he is coming off of a 16-carry week in which he gained just 44 yards but scored two touchdowns. Singletary is ranking as RB30 by points and RB31 by value on DraftKings and RB31 by points and RB30 by value on FanDuel but could easily be flipped for Tracy shares. The running back gains just 3.2 yards per rush attempt for -0.1 yards over expectation per attempt, he is a low-end touchdown-dependent option.
Receivers & Tight Ends
The Giants leading pass-catcher, wideout Wan’Dale Robinson is a high-volume target, ranking as WR13 by points and WR6 by value on DraftKings and WR11 by points and WR3 by value on FanDuel despite the lousy surrounding offense. Robinson draws a 26.3% target share on 34.7 routes run and puts up a team-leading 1.67 yards per route run. Despite drawing targets as the leading option on this team most of the season, Robinson has only found the end zone twice, while seeing an 8.3-yard ADOT for 24.44% of the team’s air yards.
Theo Johnson is a serviceable tight end option who developed some chemistry with the team’s rookie passer prior to Jaxson Dart’s injury. Johnson is ranking as TE10 by points and TE11 by value on DraftKings and TE11 by points and TE8 by value on FanDuel. He runs 30.5 routes per game with a 16.4% target share on routes run that sits second on the team, though he has ultimately managed just 1.04 yards per route run.
Darius Slayton offers deep-threat potential at a 14.3-yard average depth of target. While running 31.6 routes per game, Slayton drops into Week 12 ranking as WR46 by points and WR55 by value on DraftKings and WR48 by points and WR53 by value on FanDuel, he is yet to score a touchdown this season and averages just 1.36 yards per route run.
Isaiah Hodgins is a depth receiver, ranking as WR51 by points on DraftKings and WR44 by points on FanDuel. Hodgins averaged an impressive 2.28 yards per route run on 25.0 routes in his Week 11 return to action, posting 57 yards on 5-6 receiving. Hodgins will draw a few chances and he is getting into DFS lineups at a cheap price with a bit of involvement buzz. Ultimately, it is important to remember that this is a receiver who has caught just seven touchdown passes in nearly six seasons. Hodgins peaked in 2022 with 351 yards and four touchdown catches on 33-42 receiving in the Giants offense, there is not a lot to work with but it would not be absolutely stunning to see a few DFS points land in the receiver’s total.
Daniel Bellinger ranks as TE37 by points on DraftKings and TE37 by points on FanDuel. He runs 12.0 routes per game and averages 20.2 receiving yards. Bellinger has scored one touchdown but is no more than a mixer behind the more productive Theo Johnson.
The Giants stack ranks 18th in DraftKings points and 15th in value, while sitting 18th in points and 14th in value on FanDuel, they are a low-end option that does not truly provide many compelling standalone plays. Even fairly-ranked Wan’Dale Robinson is mostly on the board because he is cheap and targeted, the true ceiling may be shorter than that. While the Giants have hung with good teams in competitive situations this season, it seems highly likely that they will be devoured whole by the highly capable Lions in Week 12.
New York Jets
Game Total: 44.5 / NYJ +14.0 (15.25)
Offense: 47.55% rush / 52.45% pass / 20.9 ppg / 5.0 ypa rush / 6.0 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.6 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass / 25.1 ppg / 3.98% sack / 1.66% int
Key Player: Tyrod Taylor
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Breece Hall, Mason Taylor, Adonai Mitchell, John Metchie III, Isaiah Davis (on/off), Isaiah Williams (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Derrick Henry (on/off), Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, DeAndre Hopkins, Isaiah Likely, Justice Hill (on/off), Tylan Wallace (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
The Jets appear to finally be completing an on-again 0ff-again gradual move to bench Justin Fields for veteran Tyrod Taylor. With word that Taylor will take the reins in full on Sunday, the quarterback is ranking as QB18 by points but QB9 by value on DraftKings and QB18 by points and QB19 by value on FanDuel where he is less relevant. Taylor has thrown a handful of passes this season, he stepped in for Fields in Week 7 against Carolina and completed 10 of 22 passes for 126 yards but threw two interceptions. In Week 3 against Tampa Bay, Taylor threw the ball 36 times and completed 26 passes for 197 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while also throwing away an interception. The quarterback still has rushing ability as well, he gained 48 yards on eight carries in that Week 3 performance and draws a Baltimore defense that gives up 4.6 yards per rush and 6.7 yards per pass this season.
Running Backs
Breece Hall is a workhorse back who carries the ball 15.2 times per game and adds potential via 3.3 targets. Hall slots in ranking as RB15 by points and RB16 by value on DraftKings and RB15 by points and RB20 by value on FanDuel while gaining a terrific 4.8 yards per rush attempt for the season. The running back averages 72.2 rushing yards per game and has only scored twice this season. Hall is explosive, boasting a 2.4-yard after contact per attempt average and an 11.8% explosive run rate but his production is limited by being part of a lousy offense overall. Hall contributes in the passing game with 2.4 receptions and 22.6 receiving yards per game, good for 6.8 yards per target and a touchdown catch on the year. The running back is better than his rankings and his production this season, if Taylor is able to spark the Jets offense even somewhat it could be a decent day for Breece Hall against a rush defense allowing 4.6 yards per attempt to rank 23rd.
Isaiah Davis serves as a backup, ranking as RB39 by points and RB40 by value on DraftKings and RB36 by points and RB37 by value on FanDuel. He averages a fantastic 5.9 yards per rush attempt on a highly limited 2.2 carries per game, adding 1.5 catches on 2.1 targets per game for minimal impact.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Mason Taylor leads the group of pass-catchers and ranks as TE16 by points and TE18 by value on DraftKings and TE15 by points and TE16 by value on FanDuel, which says it all about this lousy spot. Taylor runs 28.0 routes per game and sees an 18.3% target share on routes run that somehow leads this group. The tight end has secured just one touchdown and gains a limited 0.99 yards per route run, he is not more than a mixer against a good pass defense in Week 12.
Adonai Mitchell is an interesting option for those forced to play Jets stacks to appease their chosen football gods. The deep threat receiver ranks as just WR44 by points and WR34 by value on DraftKings and WR43 by points and WR45 by value on FanDuel but has explosive upside and far more untapped potential. Mitchell runs just 9.7 routes per game overall, with most of his work coming in a depth role with the Colts. In his first game with the Jets, Mitchell ran 21 routes on 28 snaps with the offense, drawing six targets but catching just one of them for 10 yards. The receiver could see similar volume as the lead option in this offense, he still carries a team-high 1.86 yards per route run overall this year, and he should be the go-to pairing with Taylor given the appealing deep average depth of target of 16.5 yards.
John Metchie III ranks as WR47 by points and WR40 by value on DraftKings and WR40 by points and WR37 by value on FanDuel. He runs limited routes and averages 1.57 yards per route run in normal circumstances but sees a bit of added upside recently. Metchie caught three of three targets for 45 yards and his first touchdown of the season last week.
Isaiah Williams ran 30 routes on 42 snaps with the offense in Week 11, both season highs, but he managed to catch just one of four targets and gained only two yards. Williams ranks as WR68 by points and WR67 by value on DraftKings and WR65 by points and WR63 by value on FanDuel.
The Jets stack ranks near the bottom of the board, sitting as Stack 21 by DraftKings points and Stack 16 by value, while landing as Stack 21 in points and value on FanDuel. The ground matchup is favorable for standalone Breece Hall shares, as the Ravens defense ranks 23rd in yards allowed per rush attempt at 4.6. Baltimore’s secondary could be a problem for Taylor and his lousy collection of pass-catchers, the Ravens rank eighth in yards allowed per pass attempt at just 6.7, potentially stifling opportunities through the air and forcing Taylor to run the ball. Breece Hall is the most appealing option from this team, he is viable in and out of stacks but needs the rising tide impact of a good game from his teammates. Adonai Mitchell is an interesting wrinkle at receiver, he is a loose dart throw option outside of stacks and a more stable consideration in Jets builds as a Taylor+1 or +2. Taylor is also somewhat functional in “naked” builds, given his rushing acumen, the quarterback does not project well but he is cheap and rates for DraftKings value at just $4,300.
Philadelphia Eagles
Game Total: 47.5 / PHI -3.0 (25.25)
Offense: 49.74% rush / 50.26% pass / 23.4 ppg / 3.9 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 7.9 ypa pass / 29.3 ppg / 6.59% sack / 1.47% int
Key Player: Jalen Hurts
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert, Jahan Dotson
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: CeeDee Lamb, Javonte Williams (on/off), George Pickens, Jake Ferguson, Jaydon Blue (on/off), KaVontae Turpin, Ryan Flournoy, Jalen Tolbert (large field)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts is a high-scoring option, ranking as QB3 by points and QB6 by value on DraftKings and QB3 by points and QB8 by value on FanDuel. Hurts has slipped below the waterline at just 199.5 passing yards per game, though that comes on a steady 7.4 yards per attempt with 16 touchdowns though the air overall. Hurts remains elite because of his ability to find the end zone at all costs. The quarterback has six rushing touchdowns on the board despite gaining a mere 3.6 yards per rush attempt on 7.3 carries per game, his touchdown potential is elite in any matchup. Hurts is a steady passer as well, he is underrated in that department because of the light volume at just 26.9 pass attempts per game. That mark falls 10 attempts shy of some of the slate-leading options by volume, but Hurts is completing passes at a rate 5.6 points over expectation by CPOE while chucking deep attempts for explosive scoring plays. Hurts and the team’s play callers had largely been ignoring one of his two star receivers in the offense, but AJ Brown got onto the targeting board for 11 chances in the team’s Week 11 showdown against the Lions. If Hurts is able to coax AJ Brown into quality while maintaining his excellent productive connection with DeVonta Smith, this team will be off like a rocket in the passing game once more.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley has been nowhere near the running back he was in his career season in the Eagles’ championship run. Barkley gains just 3.8 yards per rush attempt this year with volume dipping to 17.5 carries per game on his way to four rushing touchdowns. He does get over the “magic number” of 20 potential touches via 3.3 targets each week in the passing game but he has been surprisingly unproductive in that department as well. Barkley gains 6.3 yards per target and has scored just twice through the air this season. Barkley ranks as RB6 by points and RB13 by value on DraftKings and RB5 by points and RB12 by value on FanDuel. Given the matchup against one of the league’s most targetable defenses, Barkley has undeniable potential in Week 12, the Cowboys are allowing 4.7 yards per rush attempt on the ground, but at least they are also entirely vulnerable to the pass.
Will Shipley serves as a depth back, ranking as RB43 by points and RB43 by value on DraftKings and RB42 by points and RB42 by value on FanDuel. He sees minimal work, averaging 1.38 rushing attempts and 5.63 rushing yards per game. Tank Bigsby is RB45 by points on DraftKings and RB43 by points on FanDuel. He averages 2.2 rushing attempts and 16.8 rushing yards per game and would only find relevance if something happens to the team’s big back.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Despite a bounce to 11 targets last week, AJ Brown’s ongoing limitations this season have been one of several glaring concerns in this offense. The Eagles have been good while dramatically underperforming in many ways. One of the major bright spots, however, has been DeVonta Smith, who is likely to be the team’s primary weapon against one of the worst pass defenses in football. Smith slots in ranking as WR11 by points and WR5 by value on DraftKings and WR10 by points and WR13 by value on FanDuel. The receiver runs 30.8 routes per game and draws a 26.1% target share with a 76.12% catchable target rate. Smith garners a significant 34.04% air yards share as he gets downfield to an 11.8-yard average depth of target that is an exact match for AJ Brown’s mark this season. Smith’s target rate on routes run is slightly ahead of Brown’s, but the receivers are seeing comparable chances, despite what one may tell you. Smith has simply outperformed Brown, he gains 2.16 yards per route run for 66.5 receiving yards per game and has scored three touchdowns this year.
A.J. Brown still offers explosive upside, ranking as WR12 by points and WR13 by value on DraftKings and WR14 by points and WR24 by value on FanDuel with the ongoing potential for double-digit targeting. Brown was disappointing in Week 11, he turned 11 targets into just seven catches for 49 yards, though both exceeded his Week 10 production. Brown runs 30.4 routes per game and sees a 25.3% target share on routes run, nearly identical volume to Smith. The receiver was lousy in Week 10 and missed Week 8 against the Giants but he was tremendous with four catches for 121 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Week 7 against Minnesota, posting the big totals on just six targets. That technically gives Brown a big game and the potential to have had a big game (11 targets) in two of his last three outings, again despite what he would say if he were here typing. Brown’s overall production has been short of star-caliber with only three touchdowns, but he is a weekly threat for a slate-leading score, something that is even easier to envision against the atrocious Dallas pass defense.
Tight end Dallas Goedert has caught seven touchdowns while drawing seven targets in the red zone this season, he is an easy option for Jalen Hurts once this team is in scoring position. Goedert ranks as TE9 by points and TE10 by value on DraftKings and TE7 by points and TE10 by value on FanDuel, with most of his quality derived from touchdowns. The tight end runs just 26.2 routes per game and sees a 19.5% target share on routes run for 5.6 weekly chances at a 76.0% catchable target rate. Goedert is a key red zone threat who comes through for his quarterback, he is an ideal +2 option along with one of the big play wide receivers or Saquon Barkley, alongside Jalen Hurts.
Jahan Dotson is a rotational receiver who falls far behind the two stars at his position. Dotson is WR66 by points on both sites this week. He runs 22.3 routes per game with a limiting 6.6% target share that comes with a hilarious 58.82% catchable target rate, giving Dobson essentially one chance per game as he runs sprints.
The Eagles stack rates highly this week, ranking as Stack 3 by points and Stack 9 by value on DraftKings, while sitting as Stack 3/13 on the FanDuel board. In some ways, the Eagles can become a team whose score is derived as a collection of parts rather than a fully correlated quality stack, though that can change in a moment if the team pushes the pass button more aggressively. The matchup is fantastic on paper; the Dallas defense ranks 24th with 4.7 yards allowed per rush attempt and 31st against the pass with 7.9 yards allowed per attempt, setting up a potential smash spot for the entire offense. Dallas has already yielded some of the highest-scoring fantasy days of the season, this is the league’s worst defense in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and wide receivers.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Game Total: 46.5 / PIT +2.5 (22.0)
Offense: 41.26% rush / 58.74% pass / 24.6 ppg / 3.9 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass
oppDEF: 5.2 ypa rush / 7.8 ypa pass / 26.4 ppg / 6.36% sack / 4.85% int
Key Player: Aaron Rodgers
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Jaylen Warren (on/off), DK Metcalf, Kenneth Gainwell (on/off), Calvin Austin III, Pat Freiermuth, Roman Wilson, Jonnu Smith
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: D’andre Swift (on/off), Rome Odunze, DJ Moore, Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland, Kyle Monangai (on/off), Cole Kmet
Game Notes:
Quarterback
The Steelers are a low-end option with a 21.5-point implied team total against a bad Bears defense. Aaron Rodgers leads the offense, ranking as QB19 by points and QB22 by value on DraftKings and QB19 by points and QB20 by value on FanDuel. Rodgers has been limited this season with a mere 196.9 passing yards per game and 6.8 yards per attempt, though he has managed to throw 19 touchdowns against only seven interceptions. The veteran quarterback’s efficiency has waned, with a completion percentage over expected of -1.0. Rodgers offers negligible rushing value, averaging just 2.6 rushing yards per game as he succumbs to the relentless pressure of time. The upside is clear against a team allowing 7.8 yards per pass and 5.2 yards per rush attempt, but the Vegas board makes it clear that even that should not inspire much confidence in the Steelers.
Running Backs
The Steelers backfield has been a job share situation for years. This season it is Jaylen Warren leading the backfield with 13.7 carries per game. Warren checks in ranking as RB14 by points and RB20 by value on DraftKings and RB16 by points and RB16 by value on FanDuel. He gains 4.4 yards per rush attempt and has a 4.88% explosive play rate while gaining 0.7 yards over expectation per attempt, decent numbers across the board. Warren has only scored two rushing touchdowns this season, his production warrants more opportunity overall but he shares the backfield with an explosive touchdown poacher. Warren adds solid value in the passing game with 2.8 receptions on 3.1 targets, adding a touchdown to his total, though his understudy outshines him in touchdown receptions as well.
Kenneth Gainwell has been downright interesting despite a limited role overall. Gainwell picks up 4.0 yards per rush attempt on 6.1 carries per game, operating as a complementary back who regularly punches the ball in for six. Gainwell has three rushing and two receiving touchdowns on the season, beating Warren’s total by one. As RB27 by points and RB29 by value on DraftKings and RB24/28 on FanDuel this is not more than a dart throw at yet another scoring play, but Gainwell has found those this season with a 9.84% explosive play rate and involvement across the offense.
Kaleb Johnson is a depth back, ranking as RB41 by points and RB41 by value on DraftKings and RB41 by points and RB40 by value on FanDuel. He sees limited work with 3.1 rushing attempts per game for 8.3 rushing yards and is unlikely to provide anything fantasy-relevant.
Receivers & Tight Ends
DK Metcalf is the primary receiving threat in a middling offense, ranking as WR18 by points but as WR10 by value on DraftKings and WR19 by points and WR26 by value on FanDuel where he is at a higher relative price. Metcalf runs 27.7 routes per game and commands a robust 36.64% air yards share while contributing 1.99 yards per route run. The veteran receiver averages a phenomenal 9.0 yards after the catch per reception, good for 4.1 yards over expectation after the catch per reception. Metcalf is still highly capable, he has five touchdown catches already this season but is somewhat held in check by the play of his quarterback. Metcalf has one truly big game, gaining 126 yards on five catches with a touchdown in Week 4. He caught another four passes for 95 yards and a score in Week 6 coming out of the bye but has not been over 55 yards or five catches in a game since. Metcalf has one touchdown in the team’s last five games.
Calvin Austin III ranks as WR43/45 on DraftKings and WR47/49 on FanDuel, he is only loosely involved. Austin III runs 20.9 routes per game and sees 4.6 targets, leading him to average 30.3 receiving yards per game and 6.5 per target. Austin has two touchdown catches in his pocket but those came in Weeks 1 and 3, he has not been over 70 yards since Week 1 and has not scored sin. Austin III is only moderately efficient with 1.45 yards per route run on the season, he is playable in Steelers stacks but who wants those?
Pat Freiermuth is a steady tight end option, ranking as TE22/21 on DraftKings and TE24/22 on FanDuel. He runs 15.4 routes per game and sees 2.9 targets overall on the season. Freiermuth averages 27.9 receiving yards per game and has scored three touchdowns, two of which came in a big Week 7 in which he caught five passes for 111 yards and two scores. He is effective with 1.81 yards per route run while running just under 20 routes per game in recent contests. Freiermuth caught his lone target in Week 11, his first week without multiple catches since Week 6. He is a playable mixer but not more in a crowded group that also includes Darnell Washington and Jonnu Smith.
Roman Wilson ranks as WR52/43 on DraftKings and WR52/50 on FanDuel, he is a limited option who runs just 11.5 routes per game and averages 16.6 receiving yards. Wilson has scored two touchdowns this season but his production is spotty at best. He has not caught more than four passes in a game this season and that happened only once, and he has only gained more than 35 yards once.
Jonnu Smith ranks as TE27 by points and TE29 by value on DraftKings and TE31 by points and TE32 by value on FanDuel. He runs 18.5 routes per game and sees 3.8 targets. Smith has two touchdowns on the board, catching his third would be the only path to actual DFS value. Darnell Washington is a tight end with limited upside, ranking as TE31 by points and TE32 by value on DraftKings and TE27 by points and TE28 by value on FanDuel. He runs 12.7 routes per game and averages 20.9 receiving yards. Washington has scored one touchdown and is in the mix for scoring with seven red zone targets in limited action.
The Steelers stack ranks 19th in DraftKings points and 21st in value, while sitting 19th in points and 20th in value on FanDuel, they are not a strong option even though the Chicago defense has been abysmal this season. Rodgers+1 or +2 builds are “fine” and the team at least offers DK Metcalf and a collection of same-same cheap tight end options, beyond that things get a bit rough. The matchup is exceptionally favorable across the board; the opposing defense ranks 30th in yards allowed per rush attempt and 29th in yards allowed per pass attempt, offering a soft landing for an otherwise struggling offense.
Seattle Seahawks
Game Total: 40.5 / SEA -13.5 (27.0)
Offense: 51.77% rush / 48.23% pass / 29.4 ppg / 3.8 ypa rush / 9.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 7.7 ypa pass / 27.3 ppg / 7.83% sack / 1.63% int
Key Player: Sam Darnold
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kenneth Walker III, Zach Charbonnet, Rashid Shaheed, Cooper Kupp, AJ Barner, Elijah Arroyo
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Tony Pollard (on/off), Tyjae Spears (on/off), Chig Okonkwo, Chimere Dike, Van Jefferson, Gunnar Helm
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Both Sam Darnold and Vikings quarterback JJ McCarthy have done good work in proving that Darnold’s 2024 breakout performance was no fluke. For his part, the excellent passer continued his good work in his new home in Seattle, while his former team is lost somewhere in the cold Minnesota wastelands with McCarthy at the wheel. Darnold has been tremendous this season, he completes passes at a rate that sits 8.8 points over expectation by CPOE while throwing for 9.3 yards per pass attempt in a fast-paced high-octane attack focused around his go-to superstar receiver. Darnold checks in with 17 touchdown passes against ten interceptions this season, his gains come on accuracy and efficiency, given only 27.2 pass attempts per game. Darnold is QB11 by points and value on DraftKings, he is QB12/11 on the FanDuel slate.
Running Backs
Kenneth Walker III ranks as RB19 by points and RB12 by value on DraftKings and RB19 by points and RB21 by value on FanDuel as the lead option for touches but not necessarily touchdowns in the Seattle backfield. Walker III averages 13.6 rushing attempts for 4.5 yards per attempt and four rushing touchdowns on the year, a number eclipsed by the total of his backup. Walker adds 1.4 receptions and 12.7 receiving yards per game through the air on 1.5 targets per game and he has not been targeted in the red zone this season. Walker is in the mix for shares as a last man in a lineup, but he is a limited option as a leading running back play. Walker is currently questionable but expected to play in Week 12.
Zach Charbonnet has six rushing touchdowns on the board despite carrying the ball only 11.7 times per game for 3.3 yards per rush attempt. Charbonnet ranks as RB26/25 on DraftKings and RB27/29 on FanDuel but is merely a dart at yet another cheap touchdown as long as Walker III is healthy.
Receivers & Tight Ends
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a standout receiver, ranking as WR1 by points and WR7 by value on DraftKings and WR1 by points and WR1 by value on FanDuel. “JSN” runs 26.9 routes per game and draw a massive 37.2% target share on routes run to easily lead this group. Given his 9.7 targets per game on a 12.5-yard ADOT, JSN draws an obscene 47.8% air yards share. And that in an offense that now also includes Rashid Shaheed. Smith-Njigba averages an impressive 114.6 receiving yards per game and has scored five touchdowns. He is mind-bendingly efficient with 4.26 yards per route run this season, and is a truly dominant option on any given slate.
Rashid Shaheed is a downfield bomber who draws an 11.2-yard average depth of target overall across the Saints and Seahawks this season. Shaheed ranks as WR32 by points and WR39 by value on DraftKings and WR32 by points and WR34 by value on FanDuel. He runs 30.8 routes per game and sees a 21.9% target share on the year, putting him in teh end zone twice. The receiver has a total air yards share of 33.55% and lives in explosive play territory while providing an effective 1.56 yards per route run.
Cooper Kupp is a reliable veteran, ranking as WR36 by points and WR33 by value on DraftKings and WR38 by points and WR43 by value on FanDuel. He runs 25.2 routes per game and sees a 16.1% target share on routes run. Kupp averages 9.3 yards per target and is still capable of making the big play. The receiver is third in line for quality but that also likely lands him third by popularity in DFS lineups. Kupp has one touchdown on the board and draws a 14.84% air yards share that keeps him relevant. He excels after the catch with 6.6 yards per reception, which is good for 2.4 yards over expectation after the catch per reception for the underrated veteran.
AJ Barner is a depth tight end, ranking as TE20 by points and TE20 by value on DraftKings and TE17 by points and TE21 by value on FanDuel. He sees 3.7 targets per game and averages 30.6 receiving yards each week. Barner has scored four touchdowns this season and needs to hit for six to find quality. Elijah Arroyo ranks as TE29 by points and TE23 by value on DraftKings and TE29 by points and TE26 by value on FanDuel. Arroyo is second to Barner, he runs 13.7 routes per game and sees a modest 8.4% target share, leading him to 17.4 receiving yards per game and one touchdown.
The Seahawks stack is a top-tier option again this week, ranking as Stack 8 by DraftKings points and Stack 1 by DraftKings value, while sitting as Stack 6/6 on the FanDuel slate. The matchup is highly favorable, the Titans are one of the worst defenses, and worst teams overall, in the entire league, ranking 24th in yards allowed per rush attempt at 4.7 and 27th in yards allowed per pass attempt at 7.7, and giving up 1.5 touchdowns on the ground and 1.5 through the air each week, creating an exploitable environment for the offense. The easiest approach is Darnold+1 with JSN as the go-to option but extending the build with shares of Shaheed and/or Kupp is an advisable approach and the team offers capable value tight ends and quality running backs to pad additional builds.
Tennessee Titans
Game Total: 40.5 / TEN +13.5 (13.5)
Offense: 34.9% rush ./ 65.1% pass / 14.3 ppg / 3.9 ypa rush / 5.9 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.9 ypa rush / 6.2 ypa pass / 19.3 ppg / 7.94% sack / 2.43% int
Key Player: Cam Ward
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Tony Pollard (on/off), Tyjae Spears (on/off), Chig Okonkwo, Chimere Dike, Van Jefferson, Gunnar Helm
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kenneth Walker III, Zach Charbonnet, Rashid Shaheed, Cooper Kupp, AJ Barner, Elijah Arroyo
Game Notes:
Quarterback
On the other side of the coin from their opponents immediately above, the terrible Titans are drawing a slate-low 13.5-point implied team total as 13.5-point underdogs this week. Cam Ward ranks as QB21 by points and QB21 by value on DraftKings and QB22 by points and QB21 by value on FanDuel and seems mostly unplayable. Ward averages 195.4 passing yards per game and has thrown six touchdowns against a matching interception total. Ward averages just 5.9 yards per pass attempt while struggling for accuracy. The quarterback has a completion percentage over expectation of -3.8. Ward is not a good bet for quality against one of football’s best defenses.
Running Backs
Running back Tony Pollard leads the backfield, ranking as RB24/24 on DraftKings and RB26/27 on FanDuel. The running back sees just 12.9 rushing attempts per game but pads attempts slightly with 2.7 targets per game. Pollard averages 50.2 rushing yards each week and has punched the ball in twice in this limited lousy low-end offense. The light work on passing plays adds 2.2 receptions and 14.7 receiving yards per game to Pollard’s fantasy potential, and his efficiency metrics are modest, with 1.8 yards after contact per attempt.
Tyjae Spears operates as the change-of-pace back, ranking as RB28 by points and RB27 by value on DraftKings and RB28 by points and RB26 by value on FanDuel. Spears can be explosive, his 4.6 yards per rush attempt dramatically outpaces the 3.9 posted by Pollard, but Spears sees only 5.7 rushing attempts per game. The running back has once on the ground this season but Spears is a capable receiver, adding 3.0 receptions and 21.2 receiving yards on 3.2 targets per game.
Receivers & Tight Ends
With Calvin Ridley on IR and Elic Ayomanor out for the week there are very few quality options in this passing game. Also working against them, Cam Ward is still the quarterback.
Chig Okonkwo ranks as TE18/27 on DraftKings and TE18/18 on FanDuel. He runs 24.4 routes per game and sees a 13.5% target share on routes run but is yet to score a touchdown while gaining just 1.38 yards per route run.
Chimere Dike ranks as just WR39 by points on DraftKings and WR36 by points on FanDuel, though he will likely be the leading receiver in this offense. Dike is just WR46 by value on DraftKings and WR35 by value on FanDuel, giving him essentially no appeal in a bad offense against a very good defense. Dike peaked in Week 8 with seven catches for 93 yards on eight targets, he has one touchdown all year and has three total catches over the last two games.
Van Jefferson is a veteran presence, ranking as WR48 by points and WR47 by value on DraftKings and WR45 by points and WR42 by value on FanDuel. He runs 21.0 routes per game with a 10.6% target share in normal situations but is sure to see an uptick in this spot. Jefferson averages 18.9 receiving yards per game and has scored one touchdown this year, he is almost certain to be a non-factor for DFS in Week 12.
Gunnar Helm ranks as TE26 by points and TE22 by value on DraftKings and TE25 by points and TE23 by value on FanDuel. He runs 14.7 routes per game and sees 3.0 targets. Helm averages 21.6 receiving yards per game and has scored one touchdown. Mason Kinsey is a depth receiver, ranking as WR72 by points on DraftKings and WR69 by points on FanDuel. He sees limited opportunities with just 0.8 targets per game. Neither option has appeal.
The Titans stack anchors the bottom of the slate, ranking 22nd in DraftKings points and 22nd in value, and sitting 22nd in both points and value on FanDuel. The matchup on the ground is difficult, with the Seattle defense ranking fourth in yards allowed per rush attempt at an excellent 3.9 against a lousy running back. The Seattle secondary ranks second in yards allowed per pass attempt at just 6.2, and the team allows just 0.6 rushing and 1.5 receiving touchdowns per game. Misguided builders who utilize Cam Ward as a centerpiece would do well to keep things skinny with +1 builds though we will refrain from making a recommendation for who to pick in this terrible offense.
