This article focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within the industry’s optimization tools. All of the concepts and pairings included below can also apply to hand-building. The goal is to create lineups with strong correlations among likely point-scorers to maximize the gains from infrequent scoring events within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.
This video was made in a former life and features a detailed demonstration of how to apply these concepts in one leading optimizer tool: Fantasy Cruncher – How-To Video
All references to Sims were done via friends of the site: acemind.io
Game notes are updated during the week and initially posted as “work in progress” as they take a long time to create, if teams are missing notes simply check back later in the day/week and they should be updated.
2024 Divisional Round Saturday-Sunday Main Slate DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stack Rankings
The following stack rankings were created by pairing each team quarterback with his top three scoring options, whether they are three wide receivers, two wide receivers and a tight end, a wide receiver, tight end, and running back, or any viable combination. In some cases, an expensive running back can push the overall price point of his team stack in the value rankings.
TEAM | OPP | FD$ | FDpRank | FDvalRank | DK$ | DkpRank | DKvalRank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DET | WAS | $29,600 | 1 | 1 | $26,900 | 1 | 1 |
PHI | LAR | $33,100 | 2 | 2 | $27,600 | 2 | 2 |
BAL | BUF | $30,400 | 3 | 3 | $25,200 | 3 | 4 |
BUF | BAL | $27,900 | 4 | 4 | $23,100 | 4 | 3 |
LAR | PHI | $30,000 | 5 | 7 | $24,900 | 5 | 8 |
WAS | DET | $27,600 | 6 | 6 | $22,600 | 6 | 6 |
KC | HOU | $26,200 | 7 | 5 | $21,700 | 7 | 5 |
HOU | KC | $28,600 | 8 | 8 | $22,400 | 8 | 7 |
Divisional Round DraftKings & FanDuel Saturday-Sunday Main Slate NFL DFS Stacks & Optimizer Groups
Overview
Rules and limits are powerful tools for lineup creation for NFL DFS where our primary focus is creating highly correlated lineups via stacking players from the same game. Lineups will typically be coordinated around the quarterback selection, which informs at least one pass-catcher choice, establishes a budget, eliminates a defense, and sets the tone for the lineup. We will typically look to correlate a quarterback and at least one of his pass-catchers in every lineup, with many of those including a skill player from the opposing team. This player is included to support the stack in a high-scoring game that drives offense on both sides, creating additional correlated scoring potential. Stacking multiple pass-catchers in the same lineup is a sound approach, though there are typically overall ceilings on how much volume is available at any given position. While pass-catching running backs can be prioritized in stacks and group tools, including running backs who are not involved in the passing game is less important at this stage, they will fall naturally into shares as needed. High-volume backs and pass catchers out of the backfield can be included in the groups utilized below, but it is frequently not necessary to do so with the very best players, they arrive in lineups without help.
Rules and limits are typically applied in an optimizer’s Advanced Options menu. Notes are included to illustrate the reasons behind each rule and explain what it does during the lineup creation process. These settings can typically be saved for re-use, which is highly recommended. Saving the groups created below is also a good idea that will save time with updates instead of recreation each week. These groups are created manually, but most optimizers include automated group creators that can help accelerate the curation process.
DraftKings + FanDuel Settings & Advanced Options
Note – Terminology may vary from site to site but these are common functions across most industry tools.
Unique Players Per Lineup– This setting forces the optimizer to utilize at least X new players who were not in Lineup 1 when it creates Lineup 2, and so on. We recommend a setting of at least two unique players, more can be applied depending on the degree of differentiation desired within lineups.
Team Salary– a minimum or maximum salary spend can be applied here as needed, although leaving salary on the table is an easy path toward creating unique lineups while not necessarily making a negative expected value play.
FLEX position– allows restrictions on what positions can be rostered at the FLEX spot. The primary position to restrict is the tight end so that lineups do not include two players from the position. In many industry tools this is a separate option via a checkbox, it can also be handled specifically within groups.
Global Exposure Setting – allows caps on the maximum percentage of lineups a player can appear in within a given pool of lineup construction. This is a powerful tool for shaping lineups but if settings are too low, attempts to build a full set will fall short due to a lack of available players, one of the most common errors in optimizer building. Most optimizers include the ability to calculate ownership caps continuously or at the end of the pool creation process. If caps are calculated continuously, a player with a 25% cap who is utilized in Lineup 1 will not be available for use again until Lineup 5, we recommend turning OFF continuous calculation.
Randomness – provides a random multiplier to each player’s projected point total based on the set values. This valuable tool helps differentiate lineups instead of simply creating them in order of the highest median projected scores. Using some randomness for lineup generation is strongly recommended but the degree to which it is applied is down to personal preference, 15-25% is fine to get started. We suggest heavier randomness to more event-based players like wide receivers while tracking volume-based positions like running backs more toward their median or ceiling projections.
DraftKings + FanDuel Team Stack Rules
This set of rules will force optimizers to build lineups with certain combinations. We are looking to stack at least one skill player, almost always a pass-catcher, with his quarterback while frequently playing a skill player from the opposing team in the lineup. The theory behind this build is that a high-scoring stack will require some response from the opposing team to deliver a ceiling score in most situations. Most optimizers utilize a “complete the sentence” approach for rule creation with selections from drop-down menus following a very straightforward logic. Exceptions to these rules can be added for specific teams and players on most optimizer products.
- QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It is fine to set this to two or to utilize two versions of this rule, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can also refine this via Groups)
- optional – QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from the Opposing Team (we typically prefer the pass-catchers but high-volume running backs can be effective here)
- QB with at most zero DST from the Same Team (this is a personal preference; high-scoring teams and quarterbacks tend to leave their defenses on the field, exposing them to simple point-scoring negatives)
Limits & Custom Rules and Requirements
Limit rules can be applied to restrict certain combinations from coming together. This is powerful for limiting multiple running backs from the same team or getting overweight to a certain stack within a lineup.
- Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
- Limit RB/WR/TE from the Same Team to one unless paired with QB from the Same Team OR the Opposing Team (this prevents multiple players from a team that is not a primary quarterback-based stack)
- optional – Limit RB from Same Team to one (we can also do this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s a personal preference for NFL DFS, we typically do not want two pass-catchers from the same team without their quarterback)
We will maintain the list of rules and limits throughout the season, with occasional tweaks. Each week sees another fresh crop of value plays as situations change and injuries create opportunities around the league. These changing roles and emergent value plays are accounted for in creating these groups from week to week. After a large pool of lineups is created utilizing these groups, it is still critical to filter them for factors including ceiling projections and leverage potential. These groups should help ensure that a highly correlated premium set of options that rotates through various combinations is utilized to create the full lineup pool.
Sunday Updates
Any changes and recommended boosts to specific players will be provided in an early morning update each Sunday.
NFL DFS Divisional Round Saturday-Sunday Main Slate Features & FREE Projections
- Divisional Round Saturday-Sunday Main Slate Projections
- Divisional Round Saturday-Sunday Main Slate Quarterback Scoring & Value Rankings
- Divisional Round Saturday-Sunday Main Slate Running Back Scoring & Value Rankings
- Divisional Round Saturday-Sunday Main Slate Pass-Catcher Scoring & Value Rankings
- Divisional Round Saturday-Sunday Main Slate Defense Scoring & Value Rankings
Construction Concept
Team groups are built by utilizing the quarterback as the KEY player in group settings. The quarterback decision is the driving factor in determining which stack the lineup utilizes and which corresponding plays are made to work within the structured requirements. In Fantasy Cruncher, built to specification, each team will have two groups, a team group, and an opponent group, both of which utilize the same quarterback as the key player. Each game will have a total of four groups. This is the best approach to truly capture the requirement of playing individual “run-back” plays from the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to include all of the skill players from a game in each quarterback’s group and rely on rules and limits to restrict any potential overflow. It is highly recommended to save the early season groups as a foundation that will be updated for the rest of the season. The recommended groups will include skill players who have an active role in their offense and provide significant correlation with their quarterback’s scoring, often bell-cow running backs who do not specialize in the passing game will not be included in groups as they are projected highly and appear on their own in basically correct distributions, while also not always providing the strongest positive correlation plays. Stacking quarterbacks with pass-catchers and allowing running backs to fall into the lanes created by settings, available salary, and randomness should create a well-distributed set of quality lineups. These groups are updated weekly to account for changes in utilization, schemes, injuries, target shares, and more.
Team Groups for DraftKings & FanDuel – Divisional Round Saturday-Sunday Main Slate
The goal is to create a large pool of well-built lineups that can be utilized in any large-field GPP contest. Our approach is to build far more lineups than needed and utilize a sorting table or sim process to filter to the best set of entries. The lineups created in these crunches should provide a broad distribution that includes some of the lower-owned high-upside skill players from each stack. Applying boosts is critical in pushing and pulling ownership to individual players within their team’s stacked lineups if they appear too much or too little.
The groups below are designed so that each quarterback will have two groups to create, one with his skill players and another with the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to add them all to one large group with an “at least three” and let rules and limits set things, but there is a more granular level of control in creating them separately.
Utilizing two groups also allows us to place running backs into the “run-back” position in certain teams while not including them in the primary stack for their team. This is useful when a situation has an extremely highly projected running back that does not necessarily fit into his team’s passing game. These players are threaded throughout the following construction recommendations.
Note for all optimizers the rules can be utilized to force bring-back plays in some sets of crunches and turned off for others as a global function instead of changing each group to “exactly one” bring-back play, wherever applicable, but it will apply to all teams
*Statistics provided are end of regular season numbers
Baltimore Ravens
Game Total: 51.5 / BAL -1.5 (26.25 imp)
Plays: 53.59% rush / 46.41% pass / 30.3 ppg / 5.8 ypa rush / 8.8 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.5 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass / 20.8 ppg / 6.39% sack / 2.66% int
Key Player: Lamar Jackson
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Derrick Henry, Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, Isaiah Likely, Justice Hill, Nelson Agholor, Tylan Wallace, Devontez Walker
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman, Amari Cooper, Ty Johnson (on/off), Mack Hollins, Dawson Knox
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson is essentially never going to be a poor choice on the football field, at least not for the foreseeable future. Jackson slots in with 41 regular season touchdown passes and another four scores in the rushing game while gaining 8.8 yards per pass attempt and 6.6 yards per rush, the touchdown passes and both YPA marks are the slate-leaders at the position. The quarterback only threw 21 passes in the Wild Card game, completing 16 of them for 175 yards and two touchdowns for a functional but unspectacular fantasy performance to which he added 15 carries for 81 yards. Jackson is QB3 by points on both sites but he dips to QB7 for value against a heavy DraftKings price while maintaining his QB3 ranking on the FanDuel value board
Running Backs
Derrick Henry must make opposing defenders want to stay home on gameday mornings. Henry is an absolute force in the ground game, he punched in 16 touchdowns on the ground and another two in the passing game this season despite minimal involvement. He sees 19.1 carries per game and gets over our target of 20 potential touches with 1.3 targets each week. The star running back carried the ball 26 times for a massive 186 yards and two scores in the Wild Card Round last week, he could see similar work in the Divisional Game. Henry is RB3/3 on DraftKings and RB3/4 on the FanDuel slate but could easily lead the entire day in raw scoring, depending on game-flow in a contest carrying a 51.5-point total with his team only slightly favored
Justice Hill slots in as RB12 by points and value on both sites, he should not be discarded and is probably the best of the true second-string backs (David Montgomery does not count). Hill sees 3.4 targets per game and came away with three touchdown receptions while gaining a solid 7.5 yards per target for the season, he also made steady gains on the ground on minimal carries behind Henry, posting 4.9 yards per rush attempt on just 3.1 carries per game and scoring once. Hill carried the ball six times for 12 yards and caught all four of his targets for 13 yards and a touchdown in the Wild Card game, an increased workload and a productive day while the team focused heavily on the run
Mitchell played only on special teams last week and Ricard is essentially an additional lineman, they are not fantasy-relevant barring disaster above them on the depth chart
Receivers & Tight Ends
Mark Andrews helped plow the road with two catches for 27 yards on three targets and another five yards on two carries in the Wild Card game, the tight end rates well this week and should be considered the Ravens’ top pass-catcher with Zay Flowers still doubtful to play. Andrews caught 11 touchdowns during the season, posting 9.8 yards per target on a 10.5-yard ADOT, putting him among the best downfield tight end options in football. Andrews is TE3/3 on DraftKings and TE2/2 on FanDuel
Rashod Bateman drew a group-leading 13.6-yard average depth of target through the regular season and scored nine times as the team’s deep threat. Bateman sees 4.2 targets per game on average but can spike for a bit more with Flowers ailing. Bateman caught five of eight targets for a touchdown and 76 yards in Week 18 and added another score with 24 yards on two of two receiving in the Wild Card game with the team limiting overall passing volume
Isaiah Likely is TE8 by points and TE 7 by value on DraftKings and TE7/5 on FanDuel, he is a playable option behind Andrews and should be an involved and regular member of the passing attack again this week. Likely saw five targets in Week 18 and four last week, catching three passes in each game. Likely had six touchdowns through the season, including one in each of Weeks 16 and 17, games in which Andrews also scored. The tight end is a prominent position in this passing game, overall volume may be light for all Baltimore pass-catchers, but these are reliable options at a short position
Nelson Agholor is a dart throw level player with a bit of upside for a big play. Agholor caught his lone target in the Wild Card game for a 25-yard gain. The receiver missed the final three weeks of the season, his last regular season play came on a 26-yard catch on his lone target in Week 15. Agholor’s game log includes 10 games this season in which he caught just one pass, he gained 20 yards or more on six of those ten catches however, demonstrating his significant downfield ability on a 13.4-yard average depth of target. Agholor came away with just two touchdowns for the season and 1.0 catches on 2.1 targets per game, he is a fringe option for large field GPP play
Tylan Wallace is a similar mixer who operates underneath on a 6.1-yard average depth of target that requires either a red zone opportunity or broken play to provide significant fantasy scoring, on limited expected volume there is very little to work with, though Wallace did haul in one of two targets for 21 yards in the Wild Card game
Devontez Walker and Steven Sims played very limited snaps with the offense in the Wild Card game, though Sims did pick up a 15 yard gain on an oddball rushing attempt
The Ravens are Stack 3 by points and Stack 4 by value on the combined Saturday-Sunday DraftKings slate and Stack 3/3 on the FanDuel slate, they are highly functional on the ground and through the air but the volume comes on rushing plays with concentrated probability for touchdowns and a few playable outliers
Buffalo Bills
Game Total: 51.5 / BUF +1.0 (25.25 imp)
Plays: 48.77% rush / 51.23% pass / 30.9 ppg / 4.6 ypa rush / 7.7 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.5 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass / 20.8 ppg / 8.13% sack / 1.83% int
Key Player: Josh Allen
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman, Amari Cooper, Ty Johnson (on/off), Mack Hollins, Dawson Knox, Curtis Samuel, Ray Davis (Q; on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Derrick Henry, Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, Isaiah Likely, Justice Hill, Nelson Agholor
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Josh Allen is the top quarterback by projected fantasy points on both sites this week against a Ravens defense allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt. Allen will have to face a steady stream of pass rushers, the Ravens came away with an 8.13% sack rate and bottled up the run effectively all season, which should push the team toward increased pass volume. Allen threw 28.41 passes per game for 7.7 yards per pass attempt and 28 touchdowns this season, losing seven interceptions along the way. Allen adds tremendous upside on the ground, his 12 rushing touchdowns fell just two short of Jalen Hurts’ mark for the season, he is among the elite scorers at the position and ranks as QB1/4 on DraftKings and QB1/2 on FanDuel in a Divisional Round game that could be this year’s functional Super Bowl
Running Backs
James Cook is the go-to option from a Buffalo backfield that will be challenged by a Baltimore rush defense that was the best in football at limiting rush yards per attempt at just 3.5. Cook gained a solid 4.9 yards per attempt on limited carries this season, picking up just 12.9 opportunities on the ground each week and adding 2.4 via targeting in the passing game. The running back made fantasy gains via touchdown-scoring, he punched the ball in 16 times on the ground and added two touchdown receptions during the regular season. Cook carried the ball 23 times in the Wild Card round, gaining 120 yards and scoring for the fifth consecutive game, he takes a hit but remains playable as RB6/7 and RB7/7
Ty Johnson was a sneaky value option in the Wild Card game with nine carries for 44 yards and a pair of receptions on two targets for 26 yards and a touchdown. The veteran backup could see similar chances this week, particularly if Ray Davis continues to linger as questionable, but he is facing a superior rush defense. Johnson is RB13 across the board on both sites and is only in play as a value building block
Ray Davis carried the ball only once and was not targeted over five snaps with the offense last week, he is questionable after sustaining a concussion in that game
Receivers & Tight Ends
Khalil Shakir is an excellent possession receiver who sees 6.7 targets per game. Shakir catches most of what is thrown in his direction and gains 8.2 yards per target despite a 5.5-yard average depth of target for the year. The overall depth does hamper Shakir’s ability to break big plays, he needs either to flex his muscles after the catch on a big gain or see chances in the red zone to provide breakout fantasy scoring but his security of targets, PPR value, and yardage is in place for this game. The receiver had four touchdown catches this season and caught six of six for 61 yards in the Wild Card round. Shakir is WR8 by points but WR2 by value on DraftKings and WR8/3 on FanDuel this week
Dalton Kincaid slots in as the number two pass-catcher by volume with 5.8 targets per game for the season but the tight end has lost snap share to Dawson Knox recently. The veteran outdrew Kincaid in the past four games, but Kincaid is the more involved receiver. In the Wild Card round, Kincaid played 28 snaps with the offense, catching three of three targets for 47 yards while Knox caught two of three for 38 yards over his 43 snaps with the offense Kincaid is still the player to roster between the two, but Knox hits the board for value and potential red zone targets, and has the advantage of simply being on the field more frequently
Keon Coleman is WR14 by points and WR15 by value on DraftKings and WR17/16 on FanDuel, he is on the edges of playability with only limited expectations of volume. Coleman saw 4.4 targets per game and picked up a big uptick in the final week of the season with his teammates mostly resting, but his activity in that game reveals where he stands in the pecking order. In the team’s Wild Card contest last week, Coleman was relegated to just three targets over 42 snaps with the offense, he caught one pass for five yards and was not relevant to the outcome
Mack Hollins and Amari Cooper could hit the board as high-caliber dart options. Cooper’s volume has been surprisingly low since he was acquired mid-season, he caught two of three targets for just eight yards last week and has just six catches for 74 yards and a touchdown in his last four games combined. Hollins is a deep threat with a significant 15.2-yard average depth of target that puts him in big play range for fantasy scoring despite limited volume, he scored five times on just 2.9 targets per game this season. Hollins caught one of two targets for a 19 yard gain last week and had at least two catches and 25 yards in each of the last three games of the regular season
The Bills are Stack 4 by points and Stack 3 by value on DraftKings and Stack 4/4 on the FanDuel slate, they are potentially a better source of pieces and parts or perhaps are played best as a “skinny” Allen+1 stack, given the quarterback’s propensity to keep touchdowns between himself and the running back
Detroit Lions
Game Total: 56.0 / DET -8.5 (32.25 imp)
Plays: 47.76% rush / 52.24% pass / 33.2 ppg / 4.7 ypa rush / 8.6 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass / 22.8 ppg / 7.89% sack / 1.36% int
Key Player: Jared Goff
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, David Montgomery (on/off), Jameson Willams, Sam LaPorta, Tim Patrick, Kalif Raymond
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Terry McLaurin, Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler, Zach Ertz, Olamide Zaccheaus, Dyami Brown, Luke McCaffrey
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Jared Goff is QB5 by points on both sites, he is QB3 by value on DraftKings and QB5 by value on FanDuel this week but he also sits in the big chair on the bridge of the biggest ship in this small fleet of weekend warriors. The Lions are the leading stack by both points and value on this slate and they are facing a gettable Washington defense that allowed 7.2 yards per pass and 4.7 yards per rush attempt this season. Goff threw 31.71 passes per game to lead an offense that did major damage with 33.2 points-per-game this year. The quarterback threw 37 touchdown passes against a dozen interceptions while gaining 8.6 yards per pass attempt, the second-best mark on the slate. Goff adds nothing on the ground but he has top skill players in every spot and should provide tons of potential as 8.5-point favorites (10 at open) in a game with a slate-high 56.0-point total
Running Backs
Jahmyr Gibbs is a major weapon for the Lions, he ranks as RB2 by points on both sites and is RB1 by value on DraftKings while slipping just one spot for value on FanDuel. Gibbs scored 16 rushing touchdowns and added another four on steady targeting in the passing game. The running back carried the ball 14.7 times per game, sharing duties with his capable veteran backup who essentially split about 30 carries evenly each week. Gibbs picked up 3.7 targets per game for the season, catching 3.1 of them for 8.2 yards per target despite seeing everything behind the line of scrimmage on a -0.2-yard ADOT
David Montgomery returns to action after a three-week absence. The fantastic veteran was a force on the ground again this season, sharing duties with Gibbs but not hurting the younger player’s production in the process. Montgomery and Gibbs are by far the most functional running back tandem in football, the veteran carried the ball 13.2 times per game and saw 2.7 targets, gaining 4.2 yards per rush and 9.0 yards per target for the season with all 12 of his touchdowns coming in the ground game
Receivers & Tight Ends
Amon-Ra St. Brown slots in as WR1 across the board on both sites. The Lions’ leading pass-catcher saw an excellent 8.3 targets per game, putting him among the most heavily-targeted options available this week. St. Brown posted a dozen touchdown receptions for the season while picking up 9.0 yards per target on his 7.7-yard ADOT. In the team’s crucial Week 18 game against Minnesota, St. Brown caught six of seven targets for 77 yards but failed to score, marking the only time he failed to score over the season’s final four games
Jameson Williams is a top-shelf complement to the team’s number one receiver, he warrants significant DFS shares on both sites as WR7/9 and WR6/4. Williams operates on an 11.2-yard average depth of target with 6.1 opportunities per game, putting him second on the team with a 29.9% air yards share that falls only below the 31.17% carried by St. Brown. Williams scored seven times in the passing attack this season and added another touchdown on a rushing play, he is a speedy dynamic weapon who also scored in three of the team’s final four games
Sam LaPorta is the third option in the passing attack, he caught 3.8 of 5.2 targets per week, gaining 8.7 yards per target on a 7.0-yard average depth. LaPorta finished the year with seven touchdowns after waiting until Week 6 to haul in his first score. Despite his somewhat lackluster depth of opportunity, La Porta is a heavily involved receiver who sees ongoing targeting in the red zone, putting him on the board for touchdown-scoring opportunities in one of the week’s most appealing offenses. LaPorta had two targets in the red zone in each of Weeks 16 and 17, and one in Week 18. The tight end was targeted in the red zone 18 times from Week 8 on, scoring six of his touchdowns over that stretch. LaPorta is TE2 by points and TE1 by value on DraftKings, he is TE3/3 on the FanDuel board
Tim Patrick is a dart throw receiver, there is not enough volume to support major expectations for the nominal third wideout, given the touches required for running backs and the pass-catchers above him. Still, Patrick can get on the board from time to time, he had three touchdowns on a solid 10.0-yard average depth of target that sits second to Williams’ 11.2-yard mark. Patrick saw 12.66% of the team’s air yards despite just 2.8 targets per game. In Week 18, Patrick stepped up with two catches for 15 yards on his two targets but he went untargeted over 38 snaps the week before
Remaining options are no more than low-probability dart throws with no expectations of volume barring the unexpected
The Lions are Stack 1/1 on both sites, they are a tremendous option as big favorites in the game with far and away the highest total of the week. Detroit was football’s highest-scoring offense during the season and they are facing a targetable defense that will not be able to stop their relentless rushing attack, this is a top notch stack and source of individual players, Lions should be all over lineups this week
Houston Texans
Game Total: 42.0 / HOU +10.0 (16.0 imp)
Plays: 41.49% rush / 58.51% pass / 22.4 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 19.2 ppg / 6.41% sack / 2.28% int
Key Player: CJ Stroud
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Joe Mixon (Q; “very very real chance to play”), Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, John Metchie III, Xavier Hutchinson, Robert Woods (Q), Dameon Pierce (on/off), Dare Ogunbowale (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Isiah Pacheco (on/off), Kareem Hunt (on/off), Hollywood Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Noah Gray, Justin Watson, JuJu Smith-Schuster
Game Notes:
Quarterback
CJ Stroud dips into the Saturday-Sunday slate as QB7 by points and QB6 by value on DraftKings, he is QB7/7 on the FanDuel slate, falling behind only Matthew Stafford of the Rams. Stroud had a limited second season, throwing 20 touchdowns against a dozen interceptions while gaining just 7.0 yards per pass attempt on 31.29 tries per game. The quarterback did take shots down the field with a solid 8.2 intended air yards per attempt but the results were mixed and the team remains without its top receivers. Stroud completed 22 of 33 attempts in the Wild Card game, the volume was strong through the first half and the quarterback came away with a solid but not slate-winning performance with 282 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, similar performance is on tap this week
Running Backs
Joe Mixon reportedly has a “very very good chance” to play this week after suffering an ankle injury that limited him in practice. Mixon should be expected to suit up for a playoff game, he picked up a solid 17.5 carries per game through the season and crests our potential touches threshold with another 3.7 weekly opportunities coming in the passing attack. Mixon scored a dozen times, once on a catch and 11 times on the ground this season. After a slow start for opportunities with the team starting last week a bit pass-happy, Mixon ended up with 106 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries over 49 snaps in the Wild Card game, his eighth game of the season with 20 or more rush attempts
Dameon Pierce and Dare Ogunbowale are limited for touches, Pierce sees 3.6 carries per game while Ogunbowale is targeted 1.6 times each week, the former scored twice on the ground, the latter once in the air, they are RB16/16 and RB17/17 across both sites this week
Receivers & Tight Ends
Nico Collins leads a shaky group of receivers by a mile, he caught seven of eight targets for 122 yards and a touchdown in the Wild Card game last week and had seven touchdowns for the season. Collins sees a deep 10.7-yard average depth of target that puts him in big play range, his 21.28% air yards share for the season comes with nearly three more targets on average than anyone else who will be active for Houston, he is the go-to when stacking with Stroud and ranks as WR4 by points on both sites and WR11 by value on DraftKings while slotting in as WR8 by value on FanDuel
Dalton Schultz is TE7 by points and TE5 by value on DraftKings and ranks as TE8/7 on the blue site. Schultz suffered from a lack of scoring output despite steady involvement in the passing attack all year. The tight end draws five targets per game on an interesting-enough 8.1-yard ADOT for 13.44% of the team’s air yards but he only scored twice all season and caught just 3.1 of his five targets per game. With two catches for 23 yards on four targets in the Wild Card round and just five combined catches over the season’s final two weeks it has been a minute since Schultz hit the fantasy board, he had 45 yards and a touchdown in an OK Week 16 performance against Kansas City for arguably his second-best game of the year. Schultz did not crack 70 yards this season, nor did he catch more than five passes in any single game, he was targeted eight times in the red zone all season
John Metchie III slots in with Xavier Hutchinson and the currently questionable Robert Woods to form a mediocre trio of dart throw receivers with Metchie as the highest-ranked. While he is the nominal second option for Houston at the position, Metchie does not stand out for value or upside on this slate, he caught one touchdown on 2.8 targets per game with a 9.0-yard average depth of target for the year, peaking with eight-target games in Week 17 and in last week’s Wild Card game. Metchie caught five passes for 48 yards in the Week 17 contest and hauled in four but gained only 28 yards and failed to score last week. Woods caught two of four targets for 22 yards last week but did not practice this week. Hutchinson would gain ground if the veteran does not play, at full strength he is limited and saw just one target, which he caught for a big 34-yard gain, over 26 snaps with the offense in the Wild Card game
The Texans are Stack 8 by points on both sites, the bottom of the board. Houston is Stack 7 by value on DraftKings and remains in the cellar as Stack 8 by value on FanDuel, they are limited against a Chiefs team that allowed just 19.2 points per game with steady numbers against the pass and run. This is a better source of individual options than it is a stack, at best they will be low-owned as a collective
Kansas City Chiefs
Game Total: 42.0 / KC -10 (26.0 imp)
Plays: 41.25% rush / 58.75% pass / 22.6 ppg / 4.0 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass / 21.3 ppg / 8.29% sack / 3.92% int
Key Player: Patrick Mahomes
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Isiah Pacheco (on/off), Kareem Hunt (on/off), Hollywood Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Noah Gray, Justin Watson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Samaje Perine (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Joe Mixon (Q), Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, John Metchie III, Xavier Hutchinson, Robert Woods (Q), Dameon Pierce (on/off), Dare Ogunbowale (on/off)
Game Notes:
Quarterback
The winningest quarterback on this or any slate, Patrick Mahomes slots in as a bit of a wildcard. The Chiefs offense was not incredibly impressive this season but the team just wins football games. Mahomes threw for just 6.8 yards per pass attempt with 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on the season, working with a mixed bag of castoffs and reclamation projects in the receiver group. The quarterback had another pair of scores on the ground, he gains 5.3 yards per rush attempt on 3.6 scrambles per game but is not much for punching the ball in at close range like others on the slate. Mahomes is a 10-point favorite in this contest, but the game is carrying a middling 42.0-point total, two full touchdowns off the mark in the Detroit game, for example. The Chiefs have a 26.0-point implied total on their side, the fourth-highest on the slate but the game script will dictate their need to hit even that mark. Mahomes is QB6 by points on both sites but he leaps to QB1 by value on DraftKings for just $6,000, on FanDuel his $7,700 price has him as QB4 by value
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt split carries somewhat evenly when both are available. Down the stretch, Pacheco averaged 9.8 attempts per game over the team’s final five outings, with Hunt picking up 9.0 on slightly more snaps. The running backs finished the season with a stark contrast in touchdown-scoring, Hunt punched the ball into the end zone seven times in 13 games while gaining 3.6 yards per rush attempt with 2.0 before and 1.6 after contact per attempt. Pacheco, meanwhile, gained a similar 3.7 yards per attempt, with 2.2 before and 1.5 after contact per attempt, and managed to score just once in his seven-game season. The running backs slot in as RB9/9 and RB10/10 across sites, they are mixers for touchdown potential and they are not off the board but their split-situation value is mixed at best
Samaje Perine is relegated to limited snaps and volume in the passing game, he sees 2.1 targets each week and had a touchdown on the ground and one in the pass game this season. Perine is RB15 across the board on both sites, he is a mixer for a low-probability touchdown on very limited volume
Receivers & Tight Ends
Travis Kelce remains the go-to option in the Chiefs’ passing game. The tight end got off to a slow start this season and ended the year with only three touchdowns, two fewer than he scored last season and nine fewer than he had in 2022. Kelce is on the downward slope, there is no denying it, but he still lands on this slate with the weight of expectations created by his 8.3 targets per game, including major involvement in the red zone. Despite the lack of touchdown production, Kelce saw at least one red zone target in all but four of the Chiefs games this season, including four in Week 17. He had 26 red zone targets for the season, leading the tight end position league-wide by five and trailing only Ja’Marr Chase and Amon’Ra St. Brown overall. Kelce is TE1 by points on both sites, he is TE2 by value on DraftKings and TE1 by value on FanDuel
Xavier Worthy slots in as a playable WR9/7 on both sites. The first-year sparkplug receiver caught six touchdown passes and added three scores on the ground during the regular season, hauling in 3.5 of 5.8 targets per game. Worthy operates on a 9.2-yard average depth of target and collected 23.49% of the team’s air yards with 1.2 opportunities per game added on rushing attempts, over which the speedster gained 5.2 yards per attempt. Worthy was technically active in Week 18 against Denver but was rested with only 1 snap played. The receiver finished the season scoring in back to back games, he caught seven of 11 targets for 65 yards and a score in Week 16 and eight of nine for 79 yards and a touchdown in Week 17. Worthy was a steady option down the stretch, he had at least four catches in every game from Week 11 through season’s end, excluding Week 18
Hollywood Brown is WR12/10 on DraftKings and WR12/14 on the FanDuel slate, if you cannot find him check under Marquise Brown. The receiver was only active for Weeks 16 and 17, he caught five of eight targets for 45 yards in his first game and four of seven for 46 yards in the second outing but did not score. Brown still has the ability to get open and should be expected to see a few chances down the field, his 9.2-yard average depth of target puts him in relative big play territory but he is best considered a low-probability mixer for this slate
DeAndre Hopkins is WR13/17 and WR16/17 across sites but could see an uptick in volume in the postseason. Hopkins was acquired midseason to bolster the limited wide receiver group, results were mixed. From his Week 8 debut on, Hopkins drew 4.6 targets per game, catching 3.4 of them for 1.62 yards per route run and four touchdowns on a 21.9% target/route share. Hopkins peak came in Week 9, his second game with the team, with eight catches on nine targets going for 86 yards and two touchdowns, he did not have a game with more than five catches and had only two more touchdowns from Week 9 through Week 17
Noah Gray is an interesting mixer from the second-string tight end tier, he sees volume that falls short of what should be expected from the Ravens’ Isaiah Likely but is probably the second-best option in that role on this slate (Dawson Knox is another). Gray caught five touchdowns this season despite seeing only 2.9 targets per game. 10 of his targets this season came in the red zone, adding that to Kelce’s major involvement shows just how much this team relies on the tight end for touchdown scoring when they get inside the 20, putting emphasis on the notion that Gray could work his way to cheap paydirt this week. He is TE11 across the board on both sites but the ceiling rises higher than that when things go to plan
Justin Watson and JuJu Smith-Schuster are the most likely down-board targets for Mahomes in this game, they should each be expected to see a couple of opportunities but their output was limited for the season with each receiver scoring twice
The Chiefs are just Stack 7 by points and Stack 5 by value on both sites but they are also the Chiefs. The team has a respectable implied total but the overall game total is low and they are 10-point favorites who could sock the game away early against the weakest opponent on the slate. Kansas City is, at worst, a source of tight end plays with both Kelce and Gray on the board for touchdown opportunities from very different price and ownership tiers, and Mahomes is in play in both standalone and skinny-stack shares
Los Angeles Rams
Game Total: 44.0 / LAR +6.0 (19.0 imp)
Plays: 43.26% rush / 56.74% pass / 21.9 ppg / 3.9 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 6.0 ypa pass / 17.4 ppg / 6.96% sack / 2.78% int
Key Player: Matthew Stafford
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee, Demarcus Robinson, Colby Parkinson, Tutu Atwell, Xavier Smith (on/off; large field), Hunter Long (on/off; large field), Davis Allen (on/off; large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Kenneth Gainwell (on/off), Jahan Dotson
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford and his talented two receivers will take on one of the top defenses in the game, pushing them down the board significantly this week. Stafford is QB8 across the board on both sites with low-end expectations against a Philadelphia defense that allowed just 6.0 yards per pass attempt with a 2.78% interception rate for the season. The Eagles were tremendous on defense all year, particularly with their young defensive backs shutting down passing attack after passing attack. Overall, Philadelphia allowed just 17.4 points per game and the Rams put up merely 21.9 each week, numbers that do not collide favorably for the Los Angeles signal-caller. Still, at low ownership and expectations on a short slate, Stafford is going to remain entirely playable at just $5,200/$7,300. The quarterback threw 20 touchdowns against eight interceptions while gaining 7.3 yards per pass attempt on 32.31 tries per game and was far better when both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp were healthy. Still, this is a limited offense against a very good defense, Stafford is a differentiation play with a ceiling, he is probably best utilized as a cheap bank-shot play in skinny stacks with Nacua
Running Backs
Kyren Williams is RB5 by points and RB6 by value on both sites, he is playable but is probably the least desirable of the top running backs on the board. Williams gained 4.1 yards per rush attempt this season, picking up 2.2 before and 1.9 after contact per attempt, his quality comes primarily from volume. The running back carried the ball 19.8 times per game, pushing his potential further with 2.5 targets amounting to an excellent 22.3 potential weekly touches, if he were more talented this would be the most appealing running back in play. Williams did score 14 times on the ground and twice in the passing game this season, make no mistake, this is a player that can bend a slate with a big score as long as his chances are in place. Williams picked up 76 yards on 16 carries and caught three of three targets for 16 yards and a touchdown in the Wild Card round game
Receivers & Tight Ends
Puka Nacua is WR2 by points on both sites, he is WR3 by value on DraftKings and WR2 by value on FanDuel given his abundant targeting in the Rams’ passing game. Nacua sees 9.6 weekly targets on a 7.9-yard average depth of target over which he gains 9.3 yards per target. The receiver is a big play machine despite the limited overall depth of opportunity, he is the team’s path to marching down the field on drive after drive. Nacua managed to score just three times this season, disappointing touchdown output that only slightly tarnishes the luster. The receiver is a strong standalone option for the money at just $5,400/$6,400, he should see eight or more targets at a minimum and has significant PPR scoring potential at worst, even against a strong Philadelphia pass defense. Nacua caught five of seven targets for 44 yards in last week’s Wild Card win, he had a 10-catch 129-yard performance in Week 17 before resting in the season’s final week but he has not scored a touchdown since Week 14 against Buffalo
Cooper Kupp scored six times this season, drawing 8.3 targets per game on a 7.5-yard average depth of target. Neither Kupp nor Nacua is a huge downfield weapon but both see magnificent volume for DFS scoring. Oddly, it was noted in the team’s most recent game that Kupp has only two 1,000-yard seasons in his career and none since 2021. Kupp slots in as WR10/12 on DraftKings and WR11/11 on FanDuel, he is entirely in play and makes a strong +2 option with Nacua and Stafford, he can also be deployed as an alternative in skinny stacks or in standalone shares across lineups. Kupp picked up just one target in the team’s Wild Card round win last week, catching it for a big 29-yard gain, he did not play in Week 18 and, similarly, caught one pass for 29 yards in Week 17. He has also not found the end zone since Week 14 against Buffalo
Tyler Higbee played just 12 snaps last week in the Wild Card round but he made them count with five catches for 58 yards on five targets. The tight end is reportedly ready for more action in the Divisional round, he played 27 snaps and caught five of seven targets for 46 yards and a touchdown in Week 18 and could see similar involvement. Colby Parkinson played 31 snaps and caught two of two targets for 13 yards in last week’s game, Hunter Long played 22 snaps and caught one of two targets for 13 yards, and Davis Allen was on the field for 18 snaps and caught one of two targets for 13 yards and a touchdown, this team can spread even limited targets around the tight end position and there are four mouths to feed if they do. Ideally, the volume just reverts to Higbee, the nominal starter, but there are no guarantees, he is TE9/10 and TE9/9
Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell join the down-board tight end mixers as dart throw plays for touchdown chances. Robinson caught seven touchdown passes on an excellent 14.2-yard ADOT for the year. Even on limited volume with 3.8 targets per game, the receiver managed a team-leading 24.52% air yards share and led the receiver group in touchdowns. Robinson is WR21/22 and WR21/20, he was targeted just twice despite running consistent routes over 37 snaps last week. Atwell is WR33/33 and WR33/34, he did not score this season and logged just one snap with the offense last week, he is a very limited dart throw at an 11.2-yard average depth of target for the year
The Rams are Stack 5 by points but Stack 8 by value on DraftKings, they play a bit better as Stack 5 by points and Stack 7 by value on the blue site but they offer limited overall appeal against a high-quality defense. This is another team that may be a better source of individuals than stacks, we prefer the pass-catchers in that role, particularly for PPR scoring
Philadelphia Eagles
Game Total: 44.0 / PHI -6.0 (25.0 imp)
Plays: 55.94% rush / 44.06% pass / 26.9 ppg / 4.9 ypa rush / 7.8 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.6 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass / 21.9 ppg / 7.47% sack / 2.41% int
Key Player: Jalen Hurts
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Kenneth Gainwell (on/off), Jahan Dotson, Johnny Wilson (on/off; very large field), Parris Campbell (on/off; very large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee, Demarcus Robinson, Colby Parkinson, Tutu Atwell
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts accounts for a significant scoring threat both in the passing game and on the ground, he threw 18 touchdown passes despite attempting only 24.07 passes per game for the season and added 14 rushing touchdowns on short-yardage gains. Hurts is an excellent weekly DFS play for the touchdown volume, he gained 8.1 yards per pass attempt and remains a capable overall quarterback who can get it done in the air when called upon, the team is just too good on the ground for it to matter as much as it otherwise could. Hurts threw 21 passes in the Wild Card round, completing 13 of them for 131 yards and two touchdowns, one going to low-end Jahan Dotson in the end zone and another to Dallas Goedert on a big play after the catch by the tight end. Hurts is QB4 by points on both sites but his ceiling rivals any on the slate and there is not much daylight between the projection from first to fourth. Hurts is QB5 by value on DraftKings and slips to QB6 by value on the FanDuel slate, he is in play in both stacks and standalone shares as-needed, given the massive touchdown potential
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley is the best player in football. The running back is RB1 by points on both sites, he is RB2 by value on DraftKings and RB3 by value on FanDuel and if you do not want him this week you have not been watching. Barkley gains 5.8 yards per rush attempt and 6.5 yards per target on nearly unrivaled volume, he carries the ball 21.6 times per game and draws 2.7 targets, giving him 24.3 potential touches. This is what it looks like when a talented running back sees ridiculous opportunity upside, he is a far better option than Kyren Williams. Barkley has 13 rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns this season, the ultimate team player had no problem sitting in Week 18 despite having the single-season rushing record in his sites, he also frustratingly bailed on a potential big gain as the clock ran down in the team’s Wild Card week contest, as soon as the game-winning gain was secured the running back slid to end the play. Barkley did not score in that game but gained 119 yards on 25 carries and another four on two catches over two targets. Similar output with more touchdown-scoring should be expected this week
Kenneth Gainwell does what he can with limited action, he carries the ball just 4.4 times each week, gaining 3.9 yards per attempt and scoring once for the season, and he picks up another 1.3 chacnes via targeting in the passing attack. Gainwell is a low-probability running back dart who falls behind several other second-stringers on this slate as RB14 across the board on both sites
Receivers & Tight Ends
AJ Brown did not seem thrilled about drawing just three targets and making only one catch for 10 yards in the team’s Wild Card win last week, when Brown makes noise the Eagles sometimes respond with an uptick in chances the following game. The star receiver caught seven touchdowns this season on 7.5 targets per game over a team-leading 12.1-yard average depth of target for a 36.11% air yards share that is among the top marks on the slate. Brown is a major downfield weapon who sees significant volume… most of the time. The receiver should get back in the mix against a Los Angeles defense that yields 7.5 yards per pass attempt, he is favorably ranked as WR3/5 on both sites and makes for an excellent pairing with Hurts in skinny stacks, a lead receiver in +2 builds, or a complementary play in Hurts+Barkley+ builds. Brown is also a standout option for individual play across lineups
DeVonta Smith is a lower-cost version of his teammate, he had a 9.1-yard ADOT and 25.01% air yards share over 6.8 targets per game this season and beat Brown on the touchdowns board. Smith scored eight times in the passing attack this season despite missing four games. In the team’s Wild Card showdown he caught four of four targets for 55 yards, outgaining Brown by more than five-to-one in an outlier performance that ultimately did not matter for winning DFS contests. Smith remains a strong second option or 1A to the top receiver, he is a good way to lower the cost of grabbing a piece of Philadelphia offense while maintaining high expectations for scoring output, at worst in a PPR sense
Dallas Goedert made several big plays in the Wild Card round, hauling in four of six targets for 47 yards and a touchdown. The tight end caught four passes for 55 yards in his return to action in Week 18, following a four-game absence, he is off of the injury report entirely after missing practice on Thursday due to sickness. Goedert is often the forgotten component in this passing attack, his volume is steady but not outstanding with 5.2 targets per game and he came away with only two touchdowns this season but he has big play ability and can be a weapon marching down the field on short gains and in the red zone. The tight end was targeted in the red zone seven times from Week 10 through Week 13 and nine times overall in his ten regular season games
Jahan Dotson caught an unlikely touchdown last week on his lone reception. Dotson was targeted twice on 32 snaps with the offense, outside of the team’s Week 18 game in which most of the starters were resting, Dotson did not have a game with more than four targets all year. He saw four targets only once, catching two of them for 11 yards in Week 4. He saw three targets twice, coming away with three total catches for 18 total yards in those two games. The receiver saw exactly one target in eight of his games and went untargeted three times, despite playing 58% of the team’s snaps this season. Dotson is a limited option who would need to find the end zone again to make value as WR24/26 and WR25/26 but he is the best dart throw from the limited bottom shelf in Philadelphia
The Eagles are Stack 2 across the board on both sites, they are a strong target for stacking in a variety of combinations and they have several noteworthy individual options across sites, Eagles should be heavily involved in most lineup constructions this week
Washington Commanders
Game Total: 56.0 / WAS +8.5 (23.75 imp)
Plays: 47.78% rush / 52.22% pass / 28.2 ppg / 4.8 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.5 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass / 20.1 ppg / 5.72% sack / 2.62% int
Key Player: Jayden Daniels
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Terry McLaurin, Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler, Zach Ertz, Olamide Zaccheaus, Dyami Brown, Luke McCaffrey, John Bates (on/off), Ben Sinnott (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, David Montgomery (on/off), Jameson Willams, Sam LaPorta, Tim Patrick
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Jayden Daniels and his Washington Commanders are playing with house money. The team is free of the burdens of expectations that lay with the Chiefs, Lions, Eagles, and other franchises, they are well ahead of schedule with a premium rookie signal caller locked in for seasons to come. The Commanders check in as 8.5-point underdogs (10 points at open) in a game carrying a gigantic 56.0-point total, they have a good-not-great 23.75-point implied team total with a fair amount of scoring weight leaning in Daniels’ direction. The quarterback threw 25 touchdowns against just nine interceptions while gaining 7.4 yards per pass attempt on 28.24 tries per game. Daniels also ran the ball well in his rookie year, gaining 6.0 yards per attempt on 8.7 carries per game, including designed rushing attempts as part of his repertoire. With six rushing touchdowns during the regular season he falls in line behind both Hurts and Allen but stands as a good individual scoring option among quarterbacks as QB2 by points on both sites. Daniels is QB2 by value on DraftKings and QB1 by value on FanDuel, he is highly playable in what could become a shootout but there are excellent highly competitive quarterback options on the board
Running Backs
Brian Robinson Jr. carried the ball just 10 times in the Wild Card round against Tampa Bay, gaining 16 yards on the ground and adding another 22 yards on four of five receiving. Robinson Jr. gained 4.3 yards per rush attempt over 13.4 carries each week, scoring eight touchdowns in the process. His 1.8 targets per game push his overall potential touches to just 15.2, limiting his chances relative to the other starting running backs on the slate. Robinson shares carries with Austin Ekeler, who also ranks as a middling option on this slate, with touchdowns going in multiple directions. This is an unreliable option as RB8 across the board on both sites on an eight-team slate
Austin Ekeler is RB11 across the board on both sites, he is more limited than Robinson, given about half the touch volume. Ekeler does see 3.4 targets per game and did score four touchdowns on rushing plays during the regular season, he has moderate appeal as a value dart at lower ownership but the upside is capped if he fails to find the end zone. Ekeler carried the ball eight times for 27 yards and gained another 26 on three catches over four targets in the Wild Card game, roughly similar opportunity and output should be expected
Jeremy McNichols is perhaps the most explosive rusher in this backfield, he gained 4.7 yards per attempt during the regular season and put four rushing touchdowns on the board in limited action but is highly unlikely to see the volume needed to deliver DFS quality this week. McNichols played nine snaps with the offense and carried the ball just once for one yard in the Wild Card round
Receivers & Tight Ends
Terry McLaurin is the standout receiver for Washington, he has a strong connection with his rookie signal caller and draws 6.9 targets per game. His 40.34% air yards share is slate-leading and comes from a 13.4-yard average depth of target over the strong weekly volume. McLaurin caught 13 touchdowns while gaining 9.4 yards per target for the season, he is a premium receiver by every measure and is a strong alternative in standalone lineups while acting as by far this team’s best pairing with Daniels in +1 or +2 stacks
Zach Ertz is the next-most frequently targeted pass-catcher with 5.4 opportunities per game. The tight end turns that into 7.2 yards per target on a 7.4-yard ADOT, putting him second among the team’s active group with a 17.73% air yards share for the year. Ertz caught seven touchdowns and is a fixture in the passing game inside the 20-yard-line with 21 red zone targets for the season, including three in each of the team’s last two games and one in last week’s Wild Card round. Ertz was targeted four times in that contest, coming away with a disappointing two catches for 23 yards and failing to score for the first time in three weeks. Ertz is TE6/8 on DraftKings, he lands better as TE4/4 on the FanDuel slate
Olamide Zaccheaus is a mix-in quality receiver who steps up in the absence of stronger options. Zaccheaus drew 3.8 targets per game for the year but that increased to 6.5 per game over the last four weeks of the season as he emerged in the absence of Noah Brown. Zaccheaus has big play ability, he peaked in Week 17 with an 8-catch 81-yard performance on nine targets, scoring a touchdown in the process. He had two touchdowns on five catches for 70 yards the week before that. The receiver ended up with three touchdowns for the season and he works at just a 6.3-yard average depth of target that requires either broken plays or red zone chances to reach paydirt. Zaccheaus is WR15 by points and WR16 by value on DraftKings, he is WR13 across the board on FanDuel but it is not a wild thought that he could break loose at low ownership in a high-scoring contest. Zaccheaus is more interesting than some of the other lower-probability dart throws on this slate
Dyami Brown is another mixer from the Commanders offense, having separated somewhat from Luke McCaffrey and Jamison Crowder, particularly after a huge Wild Card game. Brown caught five of five targets for 89 yards and a touchdown in the best game of his NFL career last weekend, outgaining his season-high by more than 30 yards. With McCaffrey playing only 17 snaps with the offense and going untargeted and Crowder also drawing zero targets over his nine snaps in the Wild Card round, Brown seems clear to run with the third receiver role and could be in line for more upside than Zaccheaus again this week
The Commanders are Stack 6 across the board on both sites, they are easy to reach for ownership offsets, while McLaurin is their most likely individual contributor from skill positions
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