This article focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within the industry’s optimization tools. All of the concepts and pairings included below can also apply to hand-building. The goal is to create lineups with strong correlations among likely point-scorers to maximize the gains from infrequent scoring events within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.
This video was made in a former life and features a detailed demonstration of how to apply these concepts in one leading optimizer tool: Fantasy Cruncher – How-To Video
All references to Sims were done via friends of the site: acemind.io
Don’t miss the Above/Below feature article for a few of our top picks, coming Sunday morning
Game notes are updated during the week and initially posted as “work in progress” as they take a long time to create, if teams are missing notes simply check back later in the day/week and they should be updated.
Wild Card Round DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stacks & Optimizer Groups
Overview
Rules and limits are powerful tools for lineup creation for NFL DFS where our primary focus is creating highly correlated lineups via stacking players from the same game. Lineups will typically be coordinated around the quarterback selection, which informs at least one pass-catcher choice, establishes a budget, eliminates a defense, and sets the tone for the lineup. We will typically look to correlate a quarterback and at least one of his pass-catchers in every lineup, with many of those including a skill player from the opposing team. This player is included to support the stack in a high-scoring game that drives offense on both sides, creating additional correlated scoring potential. Stacking multiple pass-catchers in the same lineup is a sound approach, though there are typically overall ceilings on how much volume is available at any given position. While pass-catching running backs can be prioritized in stacks and group tools, including running backs who are not involved in the passing game is less important at this stage, they will fall naturally into shares as needed. High-volume backs and pass catchers out of the backfield can be included in the groups utilized below, but it is frequently not necessary to do so with the very best players, they arrive in lineups without help.
Rules and limits are typically applied in an optimizer’s Advanced Options menu. Notes are included to illustrate the reasons behind each rule and explain what it does during the lineup creation process. These settings can typically be saved for re-use, which is highly recommended. Saving the groups created below is also a good idea that will save time with updates instead of recreation each week. These groups are created manually, but most optimizers include automated group creators that can help accelerate the curation process.
DraftKings + FanDuel Settings & Advanced Options
Note – Terminology may vary from site to site but these are common functions across most industry tools.
Unique Players Per Lineup– This setting forces the optimizer to utilize at least X new players who were not in Lineup 1 when it creates Lineup 2, and so on. We recommend a setting of at least two unique players, more can be applied depending on the degree of differentiation desired within lineups.
Team Salary– a minimum or maximum salary spend can be applied here as needed, although leaving salary on the table is an easy path toward creating unique lineups while not necessarily making a negative expected value play.
FLEX position– allows restrictions on what positions can be rostered at the FLEX spot. The primary position to restrict is the tight end so that lineups do not include two players from the position. In many industry tools this is a separate option via a checkbox, it can also be handled specifically within groups.
Global Exposure Setting – allows caps on the maximum percentage of lineups a player can appear in within a given pool of lineup construction. This is a powerful tool for shaping lineups but if settings are too low, attempts to build a full set will fall short due to a lack of available players, one of the most common errors in optimizer building. Most optimizers include the ability to calculate ownership caps continuously or at the end of the pool creation process. If caps are calculated continuously, a player with a 25% cap who is utilized in Lineup 1 will not be available for use again until Lineup 5, we recommend turning OFF continuous calculation.
Randomness – provides a random multiplier to each player’s projected point total based on the set values. This valuable tool helps differentiate lineups instead of simply creating them in order of the highest median projected scores. Using some randomness for lineup generation is strongly recommended but the degree to which it is applied is down to personal preference, 15-25% is fine to get started. We suggest heavier randomness to more event-based players like wide receivers while tracking volume-based positions like running backs more toward their median or ceiling projections.
DraftKings + FanDuel Team Stack Rules
This set of rules will force optimizers to build lineups with certain combinations. We are looking to stack at least one skill player, almost always a pass-catcher, with his quarterback while frequently playing a skill player from the opposing team in the lineup. The theory behind this build is that a high-scoring stack will require some response from the opposing team to deliver a ceiling score in most situations. Most optimizers utilize a “complete the sentence” approach for rule creation with selections from drop-down menus following a very straightforward logic. Exceptions to these rules can be added for specific teams and players on most optimizer products.
- QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It is fine to set this to two or to utilize two versions of this rule, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can also refine this via Groups)
- optional – QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from the Opposing Team (we typically prefer the pass-catchers but high-volume running backs can be effective here)
- QB with at most zero DST from the Same Team (this is a personal preference; high-scoring teams and quarterbacks tend to leave their defenses on the field, exposing them to simple point-scoring negatives)
Limits & Custom Rules and Requirements
Limit rules can be applied to restrict certain combinations from coming together. This is powerful for limiting multiple running backs from the same team or getting overweight to a certain stack within a lineup.
- Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
- Limit RB/WR/TE from the Same Team to one unless paired with QB from the Same Team OR the Opposing Team (this prevents multiple players from a team that is not a primary quarterback-based stack)
- optional – Limit RB from Same Team to one (we can also do this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s a personal preference for NFL DFS, we typically do not want two pass-catchers from the same team without their quarterback)
We will maintain the list of rules and limits throughout the season, with occasional tweaks. Each week sees another fresh crop of value plays as situations change and injuries create opportunities around the league. These changing roles and emergent value plays are accounted for in creating these groups from week to week. After a large pool of lineups is created utilizing these groups, it is still critical to filter them for factors including ceiling projections and leverage potential. These groups should help ensure that a highly correlated premium set of options that rotates through various combinations is utilized to create the full lineup pool.
Sunday Updates
Any changes and recommended boosts to specific players will be provided in an early morning update each Sunday.
NFL DFS Wild Card Round Features & FREE Projections
- Wild Card Round Saturday Projections
- Wild Card Round Saturday Above/Below
- Wild Card Round Saturday Quarterback Scoring & Value Rankings
- Wild Card Round Saturday Running Back Scoring & Value Rankings
- Wild Card Round Saturday Pass-Catcher Scoring & Value Rankings
- Wild Card Round Saturday Defense Scoring & Value Rankings
Construction Concept
Team groups are built by utilizing the quarterback as the KEY player in group settings. The quarterback decision is the driving factor in determining which stack the lineup utilizes and which corresponding plays are made to work within the structured requirements. In Fantasy Cruncher, built to specification, each team will have two groups, a team group, and an opponent group, both of which utilize the same quarterback as the key player. Each game will have a total of four groups. This is the best approach to truly capture the requirement of playing individual “run-back” plays from the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to include all of the skill players from a game in each quarterback’s group and rely on rules and limits to restrict any potential overflow. It is highly recommended to save the early season groups as a foundation that will be updated for the rest of the season. The recommended groups will include skill players who have an active role in their offense and provide significant correlation with their quarterback’s scoring, often bell-cow running backs who do not specialize in the passing game will not be included in groups as they are projected highly and appear on their own in basically correct distributions, while also not always providing the strongest positive correlation plays. Stacking quarterbacks with pass-catchers and allowing running backs to fall into the lanes created by settings, available salary, and randomness should create a well-distributed set of quality lineups. These groups are updated weekly to account for changes in utilization, schemes, injuries, target shares, and more.
Team Groups for DraftKings & FanDuel – Wild Card Round
The goal is to create a large pool of well-built lineups that can be utilized in any large-field GPP contest. Our approach is to build far more lineups than needed and utilize a sorting table or sim process to filter to the best set of entries. The lineups created in these crunches should provide a broad distribution that includes some of the lower-owned high-upside skill players from each stack. Applying boosts is critical in pushing and pulling ownership to individual players within their team’s stacked lineups if they appear too much or too little.
The groups below are designed so that each quarterback will have two groups to create, one with his skill players and another with the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to add them all to one large group with an “at least three” and let rules and limits set things, but there is a more granular level of control in creating them separately.
Utilizing two groups also allows us to place running backs into the “run-back” position in certain teams while not including them in the primary stack for their team. This is useful when a situation has an extremely highly projected running back that does not necessarily fit into his team’s passing game. These players are threaded throughout the following construction recommendations.
Note for all optimizers the rules can be utilized to force bring-back plays in some sets of crunches and turned off for others as a global function instead of changing each group to “exactly one” bring-back play, wherever applicable, but it will apply to all teams
For a two-game slate some of the above rules can be relaxed or removed to ensure full coverage of lineup combinations, we would recommend allowing one or two players against a defense, for example.
Baltimore Ravens
Game Total: 44 / BAL -10 (27.0 imp)
Plays: 52.51% rush / 47.49% pass / 30.5 ppg / 5.8 ypa rush / 8.8 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass / 20.4 ppg / 6.43% sack / 2.92% int
Key Player: Lamar Jackson
Setting: at most two (this allows for “naked” Lamar Jackson constructions, this should be toggled between at most two and at least one/exactly two to ensure proper builds)
Team Group: Derrick Henry (on/off), Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, Isaiah Likely, Justice Hill (on/off), Nelson Agholor, Tylan Wallace, Devontez Walker
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, Najee Harris (on/off), Jaylen Warren (on/off), Calvin Austin III, Mike Williams, Van Jefferson Jr.
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson is in contention for another MVP award after a stunning season that saw him throw 41 touchdown passes while rushing for another four and gaining a massive 8.8 yards per pass attempt. Jackson is an elite passer and he can make major gains on the ground, he is the top-ranked quarterback by fantasy points but he is both highly priced and wildly popular as the most straightforward approach to the position on Saturday. Jackson is QB1 by points but QB4 out of four by value on DraftKings, he is QB1/2 on FanDuel where his price is closer to the pack
Running Backs
Derrick Henry is an elite running back option on the two-game slate. Henry will probably be in 50-60% of the public’s lineups but he should be considered top shelf chalk in this situation. The running back scored 18 times this year, twice in the passing game and 16 times on rushing plays, while gaining an elite 5.9 yards per rush attempt on 19.1 carries per game. Henry sees an average of 1.3 targets per game but can spike for more involvement in the passing scheme from time to time, though the return of excellent pass-catching back Justice Hill will cut into that upside. Henry is RB1 by points and RB2 by points-per-dollar on both sites this week
Justice Hill is a fantastic weapon for this team out of the backfield, he rates as RB6 across the board on both sites, putting him easily in play despite his spot on the depth chart, he is the first and most essential running back pivot on the short slate. Hill scored once on the ground while gaining a solid 4.9 yards per rush attempt on limited carries and adding 7.5 yards per target over 3.4 targets per game, with the gains resulting from an average depth of target that lands behind the line of scrimmage at -0.5 yards. Hill should not be expected to see significant volume, but a few PPR points from receptions and the chance of a touchdown and/or a big gain are in play
Receivers & Tight Ends
Mark Andrews is TE1/1 on both sites on the short slate. Andrews finished the regular season with 11 touchdown catches on just 4.1 targets per game, though he can spike for more volume and should be expected to with Zay Flowers out for Saturday’s game. Andrews gained an excellent 9.8 yards per target and sees most of his looks down the field, as do all of the Ravens’ pass-catchers, his 10.5-yard average depth of target is exceptional for a tight end
Rashod Bateman should step into the lead role once again on Saturday in the absence of Zay Flowers. Bateman caught nine touchdowns this season despite seeing only 4.2 targets per game, he is an excellent big play weapon down the field on a 13.6-yard average depth of target that amounted to a 24.76% air yards share despite the moderate volume. Bateman caught five of his eight targets for 76 yards and a touchdown in last week’s game, he has at least one touchdown in three of the last four games, with four total over that stretch
Isaiah Likely should be in line for an uptick in involvement as well, he averages 3.6 targets per game but saw five last week and is a pass-catcher that this team trusts. Likely tends to stand out even more when Andrews is absent but he is a reasonable tight end pivot as TE4 by points but TE2 by value on DraftKings and TE4/3 on FanDuel, he caught six touchdown passes this season which is behind only Andrews and Pat Friermuth among available tight ends
Nelson Agholor is another downfield weapon with a 13.4-yard average depth of target, he caught two touchdown passes on limited volume but should be in line for a few targets on Saturday as a lower-end mixer at WR9/10 and WR9/8 across sites
Tylan Wallace and Devontez Walker are more at the dart throw level, they averaged under a target per game through the season and the team runs a somewhat consolidated attack
Houston Texans
Game Total: 41.5 / HOU +2.5 (19.5 imp)
Plays: 41.02% rush / 58.98% pass / 21.9 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass / 17.7 ppg / 7.53% sack / 2.65% int
Key Player: CJ Stroud
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, Diontae Johnson, John Metchie III (Q, full practice), Robert Woods, Dare Ogunbowale, Xavier Hutchinson
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Ladd McConkey, JK Dobbins, Quentin Johnston, Will Dissly, Gus Edwards, DJ Chark, Stone Smartt, Derius Davis
Game Notes:
Quarterback
CJ Stroud slots in after a sophomore season that fell well short of expectations. Stroud threw 20 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions while averaging just 7.0 yards per pass attempt on 31.29 looks per game. Stroud was a more effective passer last season, he has two terrific weapons in Joe Mixon and Nico Collins but the loss of additional skill players had an appreciable impact on Stroud’s weekly passing upside. Stroud lands as QB3 across the board on both sites against a stingy Chargers defense that allowed just 6.7 yards per pass attempt
Running Backs
Joe Mixon is an excellent option on this slate given his tremendous volume expectations. Mixon ran the ball 17.5 times per game and picked up another 3.7 opportunities in the passing attack, putting him above our threshold of 20 potential touches. The veteran gained just 4.1 yards per attempt but scored 11 rushing touchdowns and had another one on a reception. Mixon is a strong upside option in PPR scoring formats but he should be reliable for around 20 touches and has some of the best touchdown-scoring potential on the slate as RB2 by points and RB1 by points-per-dollar on both sites
Dare Ogunbowale and Dameon Pierce are mix-and-match depth options who are limited for volume, Pierce carries the ball three to four times per game (3.6) while Ogunbowale is more involved in the passing attack with limited (1.6) targeting, neither is a strong play, either would essentially require a broken play or touchdown
Receivers & Tight Ends
Nico Collins is WR1 by points and WR4 by value on DraftKings, he is WR1/1 on the FanDuel slate for the short Saturday contests. Collins caught seven touchdown passes in 12 games while averaging 10.2 yards per target on a team-leading 8.3 targets per game. The receiver operates on a 10.7-yard average depth of target that amounts to a 21.28% air yards share to lead the team’s active group. The mitigating factors for Collins will be the focus of the Chargers solid pass defense and the play of Stroud, he is a top drawer option for NFL DFS play on both sites
Dalton Schultz checks in as TE3/3 and TE3/4 across sites but seems a step down from Friermuth and Andrews in the other game. Schultz had a limited season, posting 6.3 yards per target on an 8.1-yard average depth of target and five chances per game, he caught just two touchdowns all season
John Metchie III is questionable after full practices but should be expected to play, he lands with Diontae Johnson and Robert Woods in the lower-end of the Texans group of pass-catchers. Metchie caught one touchdown pass this season, Woods did not catch any on two targets per game, and Johnson leads the group with three touchdown catches, none of which came from Stroud as he is on his third team of the year. Johnson played 20 snaps with the offense in his Week 18 Texans debut, running 16 routes and catching two of four targets for 12 yards, he should be involved and could be the nominal number two wide receiver for Houston, though all three of these options are more of the dart throw level
Los Angeles Chargers
Game Total: 41.5 / LAC -2.5 (22.0 imp)
Plays: 45.53% rush / 54.47% pass / 23.6 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass / 21.9 ppg / 8.13% sack / 3.43% int
Key Player: Justin Herbert
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Ladd McConkey, JK Dobbins (Q; expected), Quentin Johnston (Q; expected), Will Dissly, Gus Edwards, DJ Chark, Stone Smartt, Derius Davis, Hayden Hurst (large field), Hassan Haskins (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, Diontae Johnson, John Metchie III, Robert Woods
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Justin Herbert checks in as a strong option, ranking as QB2 by points and QB1 by value on both sites. Herbert threw an underwhelming 23 touchdown passes this season but had an excellent ratio against just three interceptions. With 7.6 yards per pass attempt, the Chargers are a solid offense that falls short of the Ravens’ elite passing game but slightly outgains the Steelers, everyone outgains the Texans. Los Angeles is facing a Houston defense that may be a bit underappreciated as a cheap option on this slate, the Texans allowed just 6.8 yards per pass attempt and had an 8.13% sack rate (4th) and 3.43% interception rate (2nd)
Running Backs
JK Dobbins ranks as RB3 across the board on both sites in a straight line down the pricing board at the position. Dobbins gained 4.6 yards per rush attempt and scored nine times on the ground this season, picking up 15.0 carries per game and another 2.9 via targets in the passing attack. Dobbins sees lower volume than either Henry or Mixon but should out-touch every other running back on the slate by a fair margin, making him a mandatory consideration, though not a mandatory play depending on roster construction but he does check into Saturday carrying a questionable (but expected to play) tag with an ankle injury
Gus Edwards is off of the injury report and ready to go if Dobbins is not active, he ranks as RB7 across the board on both sites and would gain minor ground, likely more for points-per-dollar, if we shift more carries in his direction. Edwards is a limited running back overall, his 3.6 yards per rush attempt are uninspiring but he managed to score four times on limited overall action
Hassan Haskins and Kimani Vidal are relegated to depth duty and would need something to happen above them to find value beyond random broken plays or cheap touchdown opportunities on light volume
Receivers & Tight Ends
Ladd McConkey slots in with seven touchdown receptions in a terrific season. McConkey gained 10.3 yards per target and had a 7.0 target average this season while carrying a team-leading 26.5% air yards share. McConkey is WR2 by points on both sites, he ranks as WR5 by value on DraftKings and hangs on at WR2 by value on FanDuel
Quentin Johnston is dealing with a thigh issue and a cold, he practiced on a limited basis but is reportedly ready to play on Saturday. Johnston led the Chargers with eight touchdown catches this season, his 23.46% air yards share ranked second on the squad, as did his 6.1 targets per game. Johnston picked up a whopping 14 targets in the team’s Week 18 game, catching 13 of them for 186 yards but failing to score, he has significant upside as WR4 by points but WR1 by value on DraftKings and lands as WR4/WR3 on FanDuel
Will Dissly is a playable mixer at tight end but ranks as just TE5 across the board on both sites, he caught two touchdowns on 4.3 targets per game this season and operates on a limiting 4.6-yard average depth of target
DJ Chark is a mixer who could see three or four opportunities with big play ability on an 11.5-yard ADOT, he is a tournament dart throw with a bit more probability than the depth receivers on the slate
Pittsburgh Steelers
Game Total: 44.0 / PIT +10 (17.0 imp)
Plays: 49.31% rush / 50.69% pass / 22.4 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.6 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass / 21.2 ppg / 7.95% sack / 1.92% int
Key Player: Russell Wilson
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, Najee Harris (on/off), Jaylen Warren (on/off), Calvin Austin III, Mike Williams, Van Jefferson Jr., Cordarrelle Patterson, Darnell Washington
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Derrick Henry (on/off), Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, Isaiah Likely, Justice Hill (on/off), Nelson Agholor
Game Notes:
Quarterback
Russ Wilson played 11 games and threw 16 touchdown passes with only five interceptions while averaging a solid 7.4 yards per pass attempt on 7.9 intended air yards per attempt, he is slightly underrated by the NFL DFS public and he has at least a few solid skill players on his side. Wilson ranks as QB4 by points on both sites but is QB2 by value on DraftKings, he remains QB4 by value on FanDuel but is in the mix as a way to access upside skill players in cheaper primary stack builds
Running Backs
Najee Harris is RB4/RB4 on DraftKings and RB4/RB5 on FanDuel, while Jaylen Warren is RB5/RB5 and RB5/RB4, which the best reflection of this situation that one could create. The running backs essentially split this job, with 50% of the season’s snaps going to Harris and 45% to Warren, Harris carrying the ball 15.5 times per game and seeing 2.8 targets with Warren picking up 8.0 carries and 3.2 targets each week. Harris is the slightly preferred option on expectations of a few additional rushing attempts but he gained just 4.0 yards per carry while scoring six times. Warren gains 4.3 yards per carry but failed to score a regular season touchdown
Cordarrelle Patterson is a large GPP dart throw in this situation, he will see a few carries or targets on gadget plays, he averaged 2.5 carries and 1.1 targets per game overall but is more limited with both backs ahead of him active
Receivers & Tight Ends
George Pickens is easily the leader among Steelers wideouts, he ranks as WR3/WR6 on DraftKings and WR3/WR5 on FanDuel and is in play for solid shares on both sites. Pickens is the best path to scoring from the Steelers, particularly in PPR formats where his 7.4 targets average should play well, though he did only manage to haul in 4.2 of those per game on a variety of opportunities. Pickens sees an excellent 13.3-yard ADOT that puts him in big play territory regularly, he scored three times in the passing game this season while gaining 8.7 yards per target
Pat Freiermuth led Pittsburgh pass-catchers with seven touchdown receptions this season. The tight end sees just a 6.1-yard average depth of target, working shorter than the Baltimore tight ends but with a bit more depth than the others on this slate with more involvement than anyone not named Andrews. Freiermuth is TE2 by points and TE4 by value on DraftKings, he is TE2 across the board on the blue site coming off of an 8 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown performance on 11 targets in Week 18
Calvin Austin III, Mike Williams, and Van Jefferson Jr. compete for limited targets down the depth chart. For the season, Austin led the group with 3.4 targets per game while Williams sees 1.9 and Jefferson 2.4, but those numbers can flip on any given slate. For example, Jefferson led the trio with four targets in Week 18 while Austin and Williams saw just one each but Austin was coming off of three straight weeks of exactly five targets going into that contest and Williams had seen four, two, three, and two targets in the four games from Weeks 14 through 17. Ultimately these are all mixers in play for a fair price and reasonable expectation of at least a chance at a big play, all three receivers work down the field, Austin carries a 12.4-yard ADOT, Jefferson lands at 11.6 yards, and Williams leads the team on a 15.2-yard average depth of target that gives him a 13.20% air yards share despite just 1.9 targets per game
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