This article focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within the industry’s optimization tools. All of the concepts and pairings included below can also apply to hand-building. The goal is to create lineups with strong correlations among likely point-scorers to maximize the gains from infrequent scoring events within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.
This video was made in a former life and features a detailed demonstration of how to apply these concepts in one leading optimizer tool: Fantasy Cruncher – How-To Video
All references to Sims were done via friends of the site: acemind.io
Don’t miss the Above/Below feature article for a few of our top picks, coming Sunday morning
Game notes are updated during the week and initially posted as “work in progress” as they take a long time to create, if teams are missing notes simply check back later in the day/week and they should be updated.
2024 Week 4 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stack Rankings
The following stack rankings were created by pairing each team quarterback with his top three scoring options, whether they are three wide receivers, two wide receivers and a tight end, a wide receiver, tight end, and running back, or any viable combination. In some cases, an expensive running back, such as Tony Pollard, can push the overall price point of his team stack in the value rankings.
| TEAM | OPP | FD$ | FDpRank | FDvalRank | DK$ | DkpRank | DKvalRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | JAC | $30,500 | 1 | 1 | $27,600 | 1 | 4 |
| CIN | CAR | $31,300 | 2 | 8 | $26,100 | 2 | 3 |
| ARI | WAS | $29,700 | 3 | 3 | $25,000 | 3 | 1 |
| PHI | TB | $31,600 | 4 | 16 | $25,300 | 5 | 5 |
| SF | NE | $31,600 | 5 | 17 | $26,200 | 6 | 12 |
| MIN | GB | $30,100 | 6 | 12 | $25,900 | 4 | 7 |
| BAL | BUF | $30,000 | 7 | 14 | $0 | 0 | 0 |
| NYJ | DEN | $28,800 | 8 | 5 | $25,200 | 7 | 6 |
| BUF | BAL | $29,100 | 9 | 6 | $0 | 0 | 0 |
| KC | LAC | $29,000 | 10 | 7 | $25,600 | 9 | 14 |
| NO | ATL | $29,200 | 11 | 11 | $25,500 | 8 | 10 |
| WAS | ARI | $26,900 | 12 | 4 | $22,200 | 13 | 2 |
| GB | MIN | $26,200 | 13 | 2 | $23,600 | 12 | 8 |
| TB | PHI | $28,900 | 14 | 19 | $26,200 | 10 | 19 |
| ATL | NO | $27,700 | 15 | 15 | $23,800 | 11 | 9 |
| CLE | LV | $25,400 | 16 | 10 | $22,600 | 16 | 13 |
| IND | PIT | $27,100 | 17 | 21 | $24,400 | 15 | 20 |
| JAC | HOU | $25,500 | 18 | 13 | $23,300 | 14 | 16 |
| CHI | LAR | $26,200 | 19 | 20 | $23,600 | 17 | 18 |
| LAR | CHI | $26,100 | 20 | 23 | $22,800 | 20 | 22 |
| LV | CLE | $23,900 | 21 | 9 | $21,600 | 18 | 15 |
| PIT | IND | $24,500 | 22 | 18 | $20,700 | 19 | 11 |
| CAR | CIN | $24,900 | 23 | 22 | $21,400 | 21 | 17 |
| LAC | KC | $25,700 | 24 | 26 | $21,500 | 22 | 24 |
| DEN | NYJ | $22,800 | 25 | 24 | $19,900 | 23 | 21 |
| NE | SF | $23,600 | 26 | 25 | $19,900 | 24 | 23 |
Week 4 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stacks & Optimizer Groups
Overview
Rules and limits are powerful tools for lineup creation for NFL DFS where our primary focus is creating highly correlated lineups via stacking players from the same game. Lineups will typically be coordinated around the quarterback selection, which informs at least one pass-catcher choice, establishes a budget, eliminates a defense, and sets the tone for the lineup. We will typically look to correlate a quarterback and at least one of his pass-catchers in every lineup, with many of those including a skill player from the opposing team. This player is included to support the stack in a high-scoring game that drives offense on both sides, creating additional correlated scoring potential. Stacking multiple pass-catchers in the same lineup is a sound approach, though there are typically overall ceilings on how much volume is available at any given position. While pass-catching running backs can be prioritized in stacks and group tools, including running backs who are not involved in the passing game is less important at this stage, they will fall naturally into shares as needed. High-volume backs and pass catchers out of the backfield can be included in the groups utilized below, but it is frequently not necessary to do so with the very best players, they arrive in lineups without help.
Rules and limits are typically applied in an optimizer’s Advanced Options menu. Notes are included to illustrate the reasons behind each rule and explain what it does during the lineup creation process. These settings can typically be saved for re-use, which is highly recommended. Saving the groups created below is also a good idea that will save time with updates instead of recreation each week. These groups are created manually, but most optimizers include automated group creators that can help accelerate the curation process.
DraftKings + FanDuel Settings & Advanced Options
Note – Terminology may vary from site to site but these are common functions across most industry tools.
Unique Players Per Lineup– This setting forces the optimizer to utilize at least X new players who were not in Lineup 1 when it creates Lineup 2, and so on. We recommend a setting of at least two unique players, more can be applied depending on the degree of differentiation desired within lineups.
Team Salary– a minimum or maximum salary spend can be applied here as needed, although leaving salary on the table is an easy path toward creating unique lineups while not necessarily making a negative expected value play.
FLEX position– allows restrictions on what positions can be rostered at the FLEX spot. The primary position to restrict is the tight end so that lineups do not include two players from the position. In many industry tools this is a separate option via a checkbox, it can also be handled specifically within groups.
Global Exposure Setting – allows caps on the maximum percentage of lineups a player can appear in within a given pool of lineup construction. This is a powerful tool for shaping lineups but if settings are too low, attempts to build a full set will fall short due to a lack of available players, one of the most common errors in optimizer building. Most optimizers include the ability to calculate ownership caps continuously or at the end of the pool creation process. If caps are calculated continuously, a player with a 25% cap who is utilized in Lineup 1 will not be available for use again until Lineup 5, we recommend turning OFF continuous calculation.
Randomness – provides a random multiplier to each player’s projected point total based on the set values. This valuable tool helps differentiate lineups instead of simply creating them in order of the highest median projected scores. Using some randomness for lineup generation is strongly recommended but the degree to which it is applied is down to personal preference, 15-25% is fine to get started. We suggest heavier randomness to more event-based players like wide receivers while tracking volume-based positions like running backs more toward their median or ceiling projections.
DraftKings + FanDuel Team Stack Rules
This set of rules will force optimizers to build lineups with certain combinations. We are looking to stack at least one skill player, almost always a pass-catcher, with his quarterback while frequently playing a skill player from the opposing team in the lineup. The theory behind this build is that a high-scoring stack will require some response from the opposing team to deliver a ceiling score in most situations. Most optimizers utilize a “complete the sentence” approach for rule creation with selections from drop-down menus following a very straightforward logic. Exceptions to these rules can be added for specific teams and players on most optimizer products.
- QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It is fine to set this to two or to utilize two versions of this rule, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can also refine this via Groups)
- optional – QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from the Opposing Team (we typically prefer the pass-catchers but high-volume running backs can be effective here)
- QB with at most zero DST from the Same Team (this is a personal preference; high-scoring teams and quarterbacks tend to leave their defenses on the field, exposing them to simple point-scoring negatives)
Limits & Custom Rules and Requirements
Limit rules can be applied to restrict certain combinations from coming together. This is powerful for limiting multiple running backs from the same team or getting overweight to a certain stack within a lineup.
- Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
- Limit RB/WR/TE from the Same Team to one unless paired with QB from the Same Team OR the Opposing Team (this prevents multiple players from a team that is not a primary quarterback-based stack)
- optional – Limit RB from Same Team to one (we can also do this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s a personal preference for NFL DFS, we typically do not want two pass-catchers from the same team without their quarterback)
We will maintain the list of rules and limits throughout the season, with occasional tweaks. Each week sees another fresh crop of value plays as situations change and injuries create opportunities around the league. These changing roles and emergent value plays are accounted for in creating these groups from week to week. After a large pool of lineups is created utilizing these groups, it is still critical to filter them for factors including ceiling projections and leverage potential. These groups should help ensure that a highly correlated premium set of options that rotates through various combinations is utilized to create the full lineup pool.
Sunday Updates
Any changes and recommended boosts to specific players will be provided in an early morning update each Sunday.
NFL DFS Week 4 Features & FREE Projections
- Week 4 FanDuel & DraftKings Projections
- Week 4 Above/Below – Key Picks
- Week 4 Quarterback Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 4 Running Back Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 4 Pass-Catcher Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 4 Defense Scoring & Value Rankings
Construction Concept
Team groups are built by utilizing the quarterback as the KEY player in group settings. The quarterback decision is the driving factor in determining which stack the lineup utilizes and which corresponding plays are made to work within the structured requirements. In Fantasy Cruncher, built to specification, each team will have two groups, a team group, and an opponent group, both of which utilize the same quarterback as the key player. Each game will have a total of four groups. This is the best approach to truly capture the requirement of playing individual “run-back” plays from the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to include all of the skill players from a game in each quarterback’s group and rely on rules and limits to restrict any potential overflow. It is highly recommended to save the early season groups as a foundation that will be updated for the rest of the season. The recommended groups will include skill players who have an active role in their offense and provide significant correlation with their quarterback’s scoring, often bell-cow running backs who do not specialize in the passing game will not be included in groups as they are projected highly and appear on their own in basically correct distributions, while also not always providing the strongest positive correlation plays. Stacking quarterbacks with pass-catchers and allowing running backs to fall into the lanes created by settings, available salary, and randomness should create a well-distributed set of quality lineups. These groups are updated weekly to account for changes in utilization, schemes, injuries, target shares, and more.
Team Groups for DraftKings & FanDuel – Week 4
The goal is to create a large pool of well-built lineups that can be utilized in any large-field GPP contest. Our approach is to build far more lineups than needed and utilize a sorting table or sim process to filter to the best set of entries. The lineups created in these crunches should provide a broad distribution that includes some of the lower-owned high-upside skill players from each stack. Applying boosts is critical in pushing and pulling ownership to individual players within their team’s stacked lineups if they appear too much or too little.
The groups below are designed so that each quarterback will have two groups to create, one with his skill players and another with the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to add them all to one large group with an “at least three” and let rules and limits set things, but there is a more granular level of control in creating them separately.
Utilizing two groups also allows us to place running backs into the “run-back” position in certain teams while not including them in the primary stack for their team. This is useful when there is a situation with an extremely highly projected running back who does not necessarily fit into his team’s passing game. These players are threaded throughout the following construction recommendations.
Note for all optimizers the rules can be utilized to force bring-back plays in some sets of crunches and turned off for others as a global function instead of changing each group to “exactly one” bring-back play, wherever applicable, but it will apply to all teams.
Arizona Cardinals
Game Total: 49 / ARI -3.5 (26.25 imp.)
Plays: 47.43% rush / 52.57% pass / 27.3 ppg
oppDEF: 5.1 ypa rush / 8.0 ypa pass / 29.3 ppg / 4.0% sack
Key Player: Kyler Murray
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Marvin Harrison Jr., James Conner, Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, Elijah Higgins, Chris Moore (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Brian Robinson Jr., Terry McLaurin, Noah Brown, Zach Ertz, Luke McCaffrey, Dyami Brown (very large field)
Lineup Notes: Arizona is missing a major weapon with tight end Trey McBride out for Week 4. The Cardinals remain a high-end overall option that rates as a strong option as Stack 5 by points and 2 by value on DraftKings and Stack 5/4 on FanDuel. Quarterback Kyler Murray has thrown five touchdowns to one interception in a strong start that has seen him complete 7.4 yards per pass attempt on mid-level volume with 28.67 attempts per game. Murray adds ability in the run game, he has carried the ball for a terrific 10.7 yards per attempt on five attempts per game. Murray ranks as QB1/2 on DraftKings and QB1/4 on FanDuel, he gains significant potential from a weak Washington pass defense that has been a target for opposing DFS units going back to previous seasons. Washington ranks 29th with 8.0 yards allowed per pass attempt while sitting 29th with 5.1 yards allowed per rush attempt this season, and they have generated a limited pass rush. Murray should have plenty of opportunity to connect with premium rookie receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. who has been fully cleared to play. Harrison caught just five of his 11 targets in Week 4 but still hit paydirt with a touchdown and had a solid 64 yards. His Week 2 performance was the strongest to date, he caught four of eight passes for 130 yards and scored twice. Overall, Harrison has a 44.4% air yards share on a 16.6-yard ADOT with 7.3 targets per game. The rookie will be joined by Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch, who are affordable receivers who have amounted to 14.69% and 18.4% of the team’s air yards share on 9.6 and 9.3-yard ADOT respectively. While neither player is a go-to option, they have seen regular targets with 4.3 and 5.3 per game, though Wilson had the clear favored share with eight catches on nine targets to Dortch’s three on six targets in Week 3. While neither receiver rates well, they should both see an uptick in opportunity with McBride missing against a weak pass defense. Elijah Higgins played 32% of the team’s snaps last week, running a route on eight of those 18 plays and drawing one target, which he caught for an 11-yard gain. Higgins should see a significant bump in opportunity with McBride out, he has four catches with one touchdown on the board this season. Higgins is positioned as a wide receiver on the FanDuel slate again this week, he is a tight end on DraftKings. Veteran running back James Conner slots in as RB9 by points and RB11 by value on DraftKings and RB11/10 on FanDuel. The running back has gained 4.1 yards per attempt on 15.3 carries per game to start 2024. Conner has scored twice on the ground while hauling in 1.7 catches for 7.2 yards per target in the passing game but failing to score in his limited chances. Conner is a playable running back with upside as a standalone option in non-stacked lineups as well as in stacks of Cardinals. Trey Benson played behind Emari Demarcado in Week 3, with the latter drawing a 20% snap share. Demarcado has carried the ball 1.3 times per game for 13.3 yards per attempt in a tiny sample that largely comes from a big gain in Week 2. Benson has been limited on the ground, though he did carry the ball 11 times in Week 2, gaining just 10 yards. He has drawn just two targets on nine routes all year, with none of either in Week 3. Conner is the playable running back from this team, remaining active players are simple depth options with Tip Reiman and Travis Vokolek potentially factoring into a minor amount of tight end snaps. The Cardinals are a strong option against a weak defense, they should be able to score at will through the air and on the ground and the Commanders rate like a strong opponent that will keep pace in what could be a good shootout game with options on both sides.
Atlanta Falcons
Game Total: 41.5 / ATL -3.0 (22.25 imp.)
Plays: 45.73% rush / 54.27% pass / 16.3 ppg
oppDEF: 4.5 ypa rush / 6.4 ypa pass / 14.7 ppg / 9.02% sack
Key Player: Kirk Cousins
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts, Ray-Ray McCloud
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Alvin Kamara (Q – Likely), Chris Olave (Q – Gametime), Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson
Lineup Notes: Atlanta quarterback Kirk Cousins was just OK again in Week 3. After leading a game-winning drive in a decent Week 2 performance that saw him throw for 241 yards and a pair of touchdowns, Cousins managed 230 yards with a touchdown but also threw an interception on 20-29 passing. Atlanta offers playable but not premium volume in the passing game, Cousins has averaged 28 attempts per game while throwing for 7.5 yards per attempt with four touchdowns and three interceptions. The veteran had an outstanding start to last year with multiple 300-yard games prior to his injury and he has similar weapons in this offense, it would not surprise to see him have a strong game against what has been a mid-level defense early in 2024. Cousins has Bijan Robinson in the running game, he ranks as RB6/6 on both sites and looks like a fair play this week against a New Orleans front that has allowed 4.5 yards per rush attempt this season. Robinson has carried the ball 16 times per game for 4.1 yards per attempt and he has scored once this season. The running back also draws four targets per game and he has 3.7 receptions per game for 7.4 yards per target on a -2.4-yard ADOT for the season. Robinson is easily in play on either site this week, both in stacks of Falcons and in other lineups. Drake London has an 8.2-yard average depth of target with 28.39% of the team’s air yards share and a pair of touchdowns on 6.3 targets per game to start the season. London has seen more targets each week over the first three games, drawing nine last week and hauling in six of them for 67 yards and a touchdown. Kyle Pitts has been underwhelming at the tight end position this season. He has an 18.99% air yards share with one touchdown on the board while drawing 4.0 targets per game and provides tempting value at TE5/5 on DraftKings and TE6/3 on FanDuel. Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud III are interesting weapons in the passing attack, Mooney ranks as WR33 by points but WR19 by points-per-dollar on DraftKings. Over three games, Mooney has been targeted six times per game with a 9.8-yard ADOT for 32.01% of the air yards share and one touchdown. McCloud has drawn a 23.87% air yards share with an 8.8-yard ADOT on five targets per game while adding 11.5 yards per rush attempt on what amounts to a 20-yard and a three-yard carry. McCloud is a dynamic player who is a career return man, he has speed and breakaway ability, if the team continues to put the ball in his hands he will continue to have value at low prices and limited popularity both in and out of stacks. Tyler Allgeier has seen a few touches in each of the team’s first three games, posting 5.6 yards per rush attempt with 3.3 prior to contact and 2.3 after contact per attempt. Allgeier has drawn just one target in the passing game, his work typically comes from spelling Robinson for a few key carries and he does have the ability to poach touchdowns from the starter. Allgeier is a limited option in a mid-level stack, he rates in the 30s across the board on both sites and would need to score a touchdown to see any shot at value. Any remaining active players are simply depth, Charlie Woener sees a 33% snap share on average but he has been targeted only twice on just eight routes over three games. KhaDarel Hodge has played just four snaps all season, and Ross Dwelley has played just seven. Atlanta is probably a better source of individual upside this week than they are a go-to stacking option, but they are on the board as a mid-level play in a game with a 41.5-point total that sees them pulling just the home-field advantage in the point spread. Robinson and Pitts are strong individual plays while Cousins is just QB17/17 on DraftKings and QB19.20 on FanDuel with London landing playably as WR16/15 and WR19/17. Overall, Atlanta is Stack 11/10 on DraftKings, where they provide more value than their 15/17 ranking on a deeper FanDuel slate.
Baltimore Ravens – FD Only
Game Total: 46 / BAL -2.5 (24.25 imp.)
Plays: 52.79% rush / 47.21% pass / 23.7 ppg
oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 4.4 ypa pass / 16.0 ppg / 8.66% sack
Key Player: Lamar Jackson
Setting: at most two (this allows for “naked” Lamar Jackson stacks)
Team Group: Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, Isaiah Likely, Derrick Henry (on/off), Justice Hill (on/off), Nelson Agholor (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Dawson Knox
Lineup Notes: A thrilling nightcap game that exists only on the FanDuel slate provides terrific opportunities for late-night hammer plays to crush the dreams of inferior afternoon-focused lineups. The Bills and Ravens are squaring off in a matchup that totals to 46 points on the board in Vegas with the hometown Ravens landing as just 2.5-point favorites. A game between two of the top contenders in the AFC should provide excellent output for NFL DFS and both teams bring top-rated quarterbacks to play. Lamar Jackson lands as QB2/7 while Josh Allen is QB3/14 at a high $9,200 salary. Allen is coming off of a huge 263 yards and four touchdowns on 23-30 passing in Week 3, he has seven passing touchdowns with two rushing touchdowns and zero interceptions on the season. Jackson has thrown just three touchdown passes and one interception while adding one touchdown on significant rushing output. The quarterback had 122 yards on the ground on 16 carries while adding a 26-41 passing game with 273 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. Jackson threw for 247 yards and a score but added an interception in Week 2 then fell to just 182 yards on 12-15 passing in a limited game that focused on the rushing attack in Week 3. That contest saw Derrick Henry spring to life with 151 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries. Henry had seen just 13 carries in Week 1 and 18 in Week 2, the uptick was necessary to support expectations. The veteran remains a wrecking ball of a running back, he has significant any-given-slate upside whenever his volume crests 20 touches or if he sees some significant red zone action. On the Bills side, James Cook slots in as RB9/12 on the FanDuel slate, Henry is RB8/18 in a fairly even matchup. Cook has rushed for 4.6 yards per attempt and has three rushing touchdowns already this season, picking up 13.7 carries per game as the team’s featured back. Cook is only partly spelled by Ray Davis, who has carried the ball 6.3 times per game for 3.4 yards per attempt. With five targets last week and three in Week 1, as well as a receiving touchdown on limited volume in Week 2, it is safe to expect Cook to remain involved in the passing game, which adds to his appeal in stacks. He is playable in all situations across the FanDuel slate as a mid-level running back. These teams offers similar groups of pass-catchers with two capable tight end options on either side. Mark Andrews and Isiah Likely have been a good tandem early in the season, splitting the role somewhat evenly despite expectations that Andrews will regain full value. The veteran managed just 20 snaps, running five routes in Week 3 while Likely played 39 snaps but also only ran five routes with one catch on one target. The game was severely limited for passing volume in Week 3, in the second week of the season Andrews took the lead with four catches and 51 yards on five targets after Likely’s big Week 1 performance. On the Buffalo side, the job is more in the hands of Dalton Kincaid but Dawson Knox is still lurking and remains, at worst, a potential touchdown vulture when things get up close and personal. Zay Flowers is probably the best individual wide receiver in this game but the Bills may have the better depth at the position. Both teams possess capable downfield weapons and like to take shots, this could be fun for DFS scoring and primetime TV. Flower has connected with Jackson for a touchdown on 5.3 catches and 8.3 targets per game, he has a 5.6-yard ADOT but 26.18% of the team’s air yards. Rashod Bateman is the downfield threat for Baltimore, he has a 14.4-yard ADOT but has failed to score on a few opportunities this season. Nelson Agholor and Deonte Harty are limited depth options with Tylan Wallace further behind. A potentially sneaky player for 10-12 touches with involvement on the ground and in the passing game is inexpensive backup running back Justice Hill who has gained 6.9 yards per target on 4.0 targets per game in the passing attack. On the Buffalo side, Khalil Shakir remains interesting as the first option with Kincaid picking up value as a premium tight end who has scored once already this season. Shakir has two touchdowns and a strong 4.7 targets per game to lead the team, operating on a limited 3.4-yard ADOT. Rookie Keon Coleman has seen more downfield chances with a 12.3-yard average depth of target and 18.82% of the air yards but a more limited 2.3 targets per game. Coleman scored his first touchdown in Week 3. Veteran Curtis Samuel provides a touch of potential, he has seen 2.3 targets per game on limited depth but has done nothing with them. Both sides of this game are highly stackable and each team offers significant weapons for bring-back shares, this is an excellent explanation for why FanDuel includes the nightcap, and this game should be heavily played.
Buffalo Bills – FD Only
Game Total: 46 / BUF +2.5 (21.75 imp.)
Plays: 53.99% rush /46.01% pass / 37.3 ppg
oppDEF: 2.8 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass / 26.0 ppg / 7.87% sack
Key Player: Josh Allen
Setting: at most two (this allows for “naked” Josh Allen stacks)
Team Group: James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Dawson Knox, Mack Hollins (large field), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (very large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, Isaiah Likely, Derrick Henry
Lineup Notes: (if you read the Baltimore section above, this is the same content, combining both teams for a FD only game) A thrilling nightcap game that exists only on the FanDuel slate provides terrific opportunities for late-night hammer plays to crush the dreams of inferior afternoon-focused lineups. The Bills and Ravens are squaring off in a matchup that totals to 46 points on the board in Vegas with the hometown Ravens landing as just 2.5-point favorites. A game between two of the top contenders in the AFC should provide excellent output for NFL DFS and both teams bring top-rated quarterbacks to play. Lamar Jackson lands as QB2/7 while Josh Allen is QB3/14 at a high $9,200 salary. Allen is coming off of a huge 263 yards and four touchdowns on 23-30 passing in Week 3, he has seven passing touchdowns with two rushing touchdowns and zero interceptions on the season. Jackson has thrown just three touchdown passes and one interception while adding one touchdown on significant rushing output. The quarterback had 122 yards on the ground on 16 carries while adding a 26-41 passing game with 273 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. Jackson threw for 247 yards and a score but added an interception in Week 2 then fell to just 182 yards on 12-15 passing in a limited game that focused on the rushing attack in Week 3. That contest saw Derrick Henry spring to life with 151 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries. Henry had seen just 13 carries in Week 1 and 18 in Week 2, the uptick was necessary to support expectations. The veteran remains a wrecking ball of a running back, he has significant any-given-slate upside whenever his volume crests 20 touches or if he sees some significant red zone action. On the Bills side, James Cook slots in as RB9/12 on the FanDuel slate, Henry is RB8/18 in a fairly even matchup. Cook has rushed for 4.6 yards per attempt and has three rushing touchdowns already this season, picking up 13.7 carries per game as the team’s featured back. Cook is only partly spelled by Ray Davis, who has carried the ball 6.3 times per game for 3.4 yards per attempt. With five targets last week and three in Week 1, as well as a receiving touchdown on limited volume in Week 2, it is safe to expect Cook to remain involved in the passing game, which adds to his appeal in stacks. He is playable in all situations across the FanDuel slate as a mid-level running back. These teams offers similar groups of pass-catchers with two capable tight end options on either side. Mark Andrews and Isiah Likely have been a good tandem early in the season, splitting the role somewhat evenly despite expectations that Andrews will regain full value. The veteran managed just 20 snaps, running five routes in Week 3 while Likely played 39 snaps but also only ran five routes with one catch on one target. The game was severely limited for passing volume in Week 3, in the second week of the season Andrews took the lead with four catches and 51 yards on five targets after Likely’s big Week 1 performance. On the Buffalo side, the job is more in the hands of Dalton Kincaid but Dawson Knox is still lurking and remains, at worst, a potential touchdown vulture when things get up close and personal. Zay Flowers is probably the best individual wide receiver in this game but the Bills may have the better depth at the position. Both teams possess capable downfield weapons and like to take shots, this could be fun for DFS scoring and primetime TV. Flower has connected with Jackson for a touchdown on 5.3 catches and 8.3 targets per game, he has a 5.6-yard ADOT but 26.18% of the team’s air yards. Rashod Bateman is the downfield threat for Baltimore, he has a 14.4-yard ADOT but has failed to score on a few opportunities this season. Nelson Agholor and Deonte Harty are limited depth options with Tylan Wallace further behind. A potentially sneaky player for 10-12 touches with involvement on the ground and in the passing game is inexpensive backup running back Justice Hill who has gained 6.9 yards per target on 4.0 targets per game in the passing attack. On the Buffalo side, Khalil Shakir remains interesting as the first option with Kincaid picking up value as a premium tight end who has scored once already this season. Shakir has two touchdowns and a strong 4.7 targets per game to lead the team, operating on a limited 3.4-yard ADOT. Rookie Keon Coleman has seen more downfield chances with a 12.3-yard average depth of target and 18.82% of the air yards but a more limited 2.3 targets per game. Coleman scored his first touchdown in Week 3. Veteran Curtis Samuel provides a touch of potential, he has seen 2.3 targets per game on limited depth but has done nothing with them. Both sides of this game are highly stackable and each team offers significant weapons for bring-back shares, this is an excellent explanation for why FanDuel includes the nightcap, and this game should be heavily played.
Carolina Panthers
Game Total: 46.5 / CAR +4.5 (21.0 imp.)
Plays: 40.35% rush /59.65% pass / 16.3 ppg
oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 26.7 ppg / 6.49% sack
Key Player: Andy Dalton
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Diontae Johnson (Q – Likely), Xavier Legette, Jonathan Mingo, Chuba Hubbard (on/off), Tommy Tremble
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Ja’Marr Chase, Zack Moss, Tee Higgins, Andrei Iosivas, Mike Gesicki, Chase Brown
Lineup Notes: It’s amazing what a veteran quarterback can do with even semi-capable weapons. Andy Dalton stepped into the starting role for Carolina and immediately made the team better. Dalton threw for 319 yards on 26-37 passing, connecting for three touchdown passes in a winning performance. The veteran checks in at a cheap price again this week but he ranks as just QB22/21 and QB24/25 across DraftKings and FanDuel respectively. Dalton is cheap at the position and has potential weapons in receivers Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette, though veteran Adam Thielen is out for several weeks. Johnson was limited in practice with a groin injury on Friday, he is currently questionable and he is one to keep an eye on with the team expressing optimism in his availability. Johnson caught eight of 14 targets in a huge 122-yard one-touchdown performance in Week 3, he would be the prime connection with Dalton in stacks. If he does not play, the lead role should fall to Legette. The rookie drew seven targets in Week 1, catching four of them for 35 yards on his 22 routes run. In Week 2, Legette went from 32 to just 20 snaps played and he went untargeted on 14 routes run. He bounced back somewhat last week with 40 snaps, 16 routes run, and two catches on three targets for 42 yards, though he did not find the end zone. With a 20.37% air yards share and aa team-leading 13.1-yard ADOT, Legette is a playable downfield option who would spike for value if Johnson does not go. Jonathan Mingo would also benefit in that scenario. Mingo picked up four targets in Week 3, catching three of them but posting just 18 yards. The receiver had produced just 5.4 yards per target on 9.33% of the team’s air yards. The ground game for Carolina is split between Chuba Hubbard, who played 58% of the snaps last week to the 42% played by Miles Sanders. For the season, Hubbard has gained 5.2 yards per attempt on 12.3 carries per game while Sanders has provided 3.1 yards per attempt on 6.3 carries but has the team’s lone rushing touchdown. Sanders sees 3.3 targets per game but so does Hubbard, he has the receiving touchdown between the pair. Hubbard did see a strong volume advantage that makes him the primary option on the ground in this offense, in Week 3 he had 21 carries and caught five of five passes, rushing for 114 yards and adding 55 yards receiving and a touchdown in the passing game. Hubbard ranks as RB16/9 on DraftKings and RB17.7 on FanDuel in a stack that rates as just Stack 21/17 and Stack 23/22, he is a better option as a standalone running back. Johnson rates as WR18 by points but WR6 by value on both sites, he is an interesting standalone value receiver and the go-to in stacks if he plays, if he does not the depth options would gain value that they currently lack.
Chicago Bears
Game Total: 40.5 / CHI -3.0 (21.75 imp.)
Plays: 35.47% rush / 64.53% pass / 17.7 ppg
oppDEF: 5.1 ypa rush / 9.4 ypa pass / 30.3ppg / 4.82% sack
Key Player: Caleb Williams
Setting: at most two (this allows for “naked” Williams stacks)
Team Group: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen (Q – Likely), Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett, DeAndre Carter, D’Andre Swift (on/off), Roschon Johnson (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Kyren Williams, Demarcus Robinson, Tutu Atwell, Tyler Johnson, Jordan Whittington
Lineup Notes: Rookie sensation quarterback Caleb Williams was more rookie than sensation or even quarterback over Weeks 1 and 2 but he roared to life in the Bears’ Week 3 defeat. Williams threw the ball 52 times, completing 33 attempts for 363 yards and a pair of touchdowns, though he lost another two passes to the opposing defense. The rookie rushed for just eight yards on one carry, he was focused on the pass attempts throughout the game, the 52 attempts were an uptick from Week 2’s 37 which had been a bump from 29 pass attempts in Week 1, the Bears are giving Williams every opportunity to succeed through the air. The team has premium passing game weapons with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen as an excellent 1/1A combination stacked together or individually, or in non-stacked lineups. The veteran tandem should help Williams throughout the season, Moore has been active and involved, he had eight catches on 10 targets last week and caught six of 10 targets in Week 2 but he has not found the end zone or cracked 100 yards. Even with eight catches in Williams’ breakout last week, Moore posted a limited 78 yards on 53 routes run. Allen played 37 snaps in Week 1, running 23 routes and catching four of 11 targets, we have not seen him since. The receiver got limited practices in this week, he is trending in the right direction but remains questionable and one to watch. Assuming Allen is on the field for the Bears he is immediately stackable for our purposes on either site. The Bears rate as just Stack 17/18 and Stack 19/20, they are playable but not ideally positioned. As individuals, there might be more appeal. Williams rates as QB10/5, a strong value mark on DraftKings, and QB12/8 on FanDuel. Given the player’s ability in the ground game in addition to his excellent passing upside, Williams can provide a significant score in a points-per-dollar sense. Moore is WR15/24 and WR15/14 with Allen playing, he would climb the board somewhat if Allen sits. Allen, meanwhile is WR25/40 and 29/32, he is playable but not enticing. Rookie Rome Odunze broke out alongside his new teammate in Week 3, catching six of the 11 targets that Williams slung in his direction for 112 yards and a touchdown. Odunze had been off to a lukewarm start over two weeks before the explosion but he has shown major downfield ability and opportunity with a 16.5-yard ADOT and 34.13% of the team’s air yards share on 6.7 targets per game. Odunze is a playable mid-level receiver on both sites this week. D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson are expected to get most of the volume in the ground game, with an increasing workload going to Johnson and potentially fewer opportunities for both Swift and Khalil Herbert. The three-headed running back situation has virtually no appeal for NFL DFS, Swift has gained 1.8 yards per attempt on 12.3 attempts per game. Johnson did not play in Week 1 and was just on special teams in Week 2 before playing 32 snaps with the offense and gaining 30 yards on eight carries with another 32 yards coming on 4-5 receiving. Johnson ranks as RB35/30 and 38/39 he is a volume-based value dart with only limited upside in a timeshare. Cole Kmet is TE7/14 and TE10/11 across sites, he had a huge Week 3 with 10 catches on 11 targets, putting up 97 yards and a touchdown. Kmet was targeted five times in a more limited Week 2 performance that saw him catch four balls for 27 yards, he is a touchdown-focused mid-board tight end option this week. At the bottom of the depth chart, Gerald Everett and DeAndre Carter have both seen limited opportunities. Everett has drawn 1.7 targets per game with a 41% snap share while Carter has a 56% snap share for the season and an uptick in routes run and opportunity in Weeks 2 and 3. Carter played 46 snaps in Week 2, running 37 routes and drawing four targets. He caught three of those for 32 yards and had a similar three catches for 22 yards in Week 3, though that came on six targets over 38 routes on 52 snaps. Carter is a limited dart throw as a low-ranked WR play but there is viable volume if Allen sits again in Week 4. The Bears rank as Stack 17/18 and Stack 19/20 they are more of a Williams+1 value or a source of individual player opportunities rather than an appealing stack this week.
Cincinnati Bengals
Game Total: 46.5 / CIN -4.5 (25.5 imp.)
Plays: 34.32% rush / 65.68% pass / 22.7 ppg
oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass / 31.7ppg / 5.62% sack
Key Player: Joe Burrow
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Zack Moss (on/off), Andrei Iosivas, Mike Gesicki, Chase Brown (on/off), Jermaine Burton (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette, Jonathan Mingo, Chuba Hubbard (on/off), Tommy Tremble
Lineup Notes: The Bengals offense took a step forward in Week 3 with the return of receiver Tee Higgins and a more productive connection between quarterback Joe Burrow and lead receiver Ja’Marr Chase. The duo connected for their first two touchdowns of 2024, with Chase hauling in six of seven passes for 118 yards after a limited six for 62 in Week 1 and four for 35 in Week 2. Higgins played 54 snaps in his return, running 40 routes and drawing six targets. He caught just three of those for 39 yards and did not score but there is volume and talent-based upside for this week’s WR19/17 on DraftKings and WR21/28 on FanDuel. Chase ranks above his running mate, of course, he sits as WR2/3 on DraftKings and WR2/11 on FanDuel this week. Burrow is QB6/8 on DraftKings and an inverse QB8/6 on FanDuel, he had his first 300-yard game of the season with 324 on 29-38 passing and three touchdowns last week as he continue to knock the rust off to begin the year. Burrow and his two prime weapons are an excellent stack but the team offers RB14/12 and RB14/15 in Zack Moss who has shown bounce and explosiveness early in the year. Moss has gained 4.1 yards per rush attempt on 11 carries per game and has scored twice on the ground already while drawing 3.7 targets and putting up 23.0 yards per game. Chase Brown played 14 snaps to Moss’ 46 last week, picking up just seven carries but exploding for 62 yards. Brown was targeted three times on five routes, catching two passes for limited output. Moss is the more appealing running back with a far greater opportunity, Brown is nothing more than a dart throw with explosive upside. Andrei Iosivas managed to stay relevant despite the return of Higgins, he picked up a season-high seven targets and caught a season-high five passes for 52 yards and a touchdown with a clear role in the offense. Iosivas is unlikely to be popular again this week, he ranks as WR50/47 and WR52/56 as a limited mid-board value play. Mike Gesicki has ability at the tight end position but comes up a bit short on projection in a deep offense, he ranks as TE14/13 and TE16/19 this week. The Bengals have a limited downfield target in Jermaine Burton, who has drawn just two opportunities, both in Week 2, on 12 routes run over three games. Burton has one catch for 47 yards and has drawn a 33.5-yard ADOT in the limited targeting, he is an extremely low-probability dart throw at best. The Bengals are a high-end stack in a game that should provide both pace and scoring this week, they rank as Stack 4/4 on DraftKings and Stack 4/9 on FanDuel against Carolina’s targetable defense. The Panthers have yielded 4.7 yards per rush attempt and 7.2 yards per pass attempt this season, this is an appealing game for stacking on both sites and there are pieces for bring-back plays in either direction.
Cleveland Browns
Game Total: 37 / CLE -2.0 (19.5 imp.)
Plays: 33.33% rush / 66.67% pass / 16.7 ppg
oppDEF: 5.4 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass
Key Player: Deshaun Watson
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, Jerome Ford, Elijah Moore, Jordan Akins, Cedric Tillman (large field), D’Onta Foreman (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Zamir White, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers, Alexander Mattison, Tre Tucker
Lineup Notes: The Browns limited offense runs into a defense that has been low-end to start the season, resulting in a 37-point total that sees Cleveland favored by two on the road. The Browns best weapons are receivers Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy, but the best NFL DFS option this week could easily be running back Jerome Ford who should have a clear path to touches with Pierre Strong out again. Ford is limited himself, however, his knee injury kept him to a limited role in practice this week but he is trending toward playing. In Week 3, Ford carried the ball 10 times and caught three of four targets, putting up 37 yards on the ground and 33 in the passing game over his 52 snaps in the same role. Ford has upside as a three-downs running back against a bad rush defense that sits 31st at 5.4 yards allowed per rush attempt on the season. The Browns are helmed by Deshaun Watson who has not been the same quarterback some still may remember from several seasons ago. Watson has thrown three touchdowns to two interceptions over the first three games, completing just 58.0% of his 38.67 pass attempts per game for an extremely limited 4.8 yards per pass attempt. The quarterback has gained 6.1 yards per attempt on the ground, with a rushing touchdown in the books, on 4.7 attempts per game in limited output overall. Watson connected with Cooper for a pair of touchdowns last week, the receiver had 86 yards on 7-12 receiving while Jeudy managed to catch four of seven targets for just 27 yards. Jeudy got in the end zone in Week 1 and he has solid second-option volume in the passing game. Cooper has a 12.8-yard ADOT with 44.08% of the team’s air yards while Jeudy has a 12.2-yard ADOT and 30.33% of the air yards. Elijah Moore picks up most of the balance at 11.14% on just a 5.5-yard ADOT but 5.7 targets per game. Moore is a dynamic player with game-breaking ability with the ball in his hands, he has gained 4.1 yards per target so far this season in limited output, with six catches for 44 yards standing as his high over three games. Jordan Akins is a capable backup for absent David Njoku, Akins had 29 yards on 4-7 receiving last week, running 36 routes on 44 snaps as a clear option in the passing game. D’Onta Foreman and Cedric Tillman have both played limited snaps this season, they are nothing more than darts from down the depth chart while the remaining options are simply off the board at sub-1.0 NFL DFS projections. Foreman had two carries for five yards last week but put up 42 yards on 14 carries over 25 snaps in Week 2. Tillman has one catch in each of the first three games but just nine yards total for the season. The Browns are Stack 16/13 on DraftKings and Stack 16/11 on FanDuel, they are a limited option this week despite the strong value rating for Watson as QB13/6 on DraftKings. Cooper, Ford, and Jeudy are playable skill options in their roles at varied prices and popularity projections.
Denver Broncos
Game Total: 39.5 / DEN +7.5 (16.0 imp.)
Plays: 38.10% rush / 61.90% pass / 17.3 ppg
oppDEF: 4.8 ypa rush / 5.4 ypa pass / 17.3 ppg / 14.43% sack
Key Player: Bo Nix
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds, Greg Dulcich, Devaughn Vele (large field), Marvin Mims Jr. (large field), Javonte Williams (on/off), Jaleel McLaughlin (on/off), Lil’Jordan Humphrey (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, Braeleon Allen, Mike Williams, Tyler Conklin
Lineup Notes: Denver has been a lousy offense this season, scoring just 17.3 points per game with a limited passing attack and middling rushing game. Denver’s rookie savior quarterback Bo Nix has not throw a touchdown pass against the four interceptions that he has tossed away over his first three games. Nix has completed 63.0% of his 37.67 attempts per game, strong volume that could create points-per-dollar potential in a better situation. Nix has completed just 5.3 yards per attempt this season with 3.3 air yards per attempt despite 7.4 intended air yards per attempt. The quarterback has a pair of rushing touchdowns while gaining 5.9 yards per attempt on 6.0 carries per game. Nix shares touches on the ground with running backs Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin, who have gained 2.2 yards per attempt each this season, with Williams drawing eight carries per game to McLaughlin’s six. The volume and the output have been limited early, McLaughlin has the lone touchdown for the pair but Williams outsnaps him on a 2-1 basis with Tyler Badie pulling a couple of backup touches per game. A receiving corps of Courtland Sutton and Josh Reynolds has not done much to help Nix early in the year. Sutton has seen volume and did catch seven of 11 targets in Week 3 but he has yet to score or crack even 70 yards receiving. Reynolds was targeted twice in Week 3, catching both opportunities. He had 36 yards in limited action but was better and more involved in the first two weeks with 5 catches for 45 yards on eight targets in Week 1 and 4 catches for 93 yards on five targets in Week 2. Lil’Jordan Humphrey is also involved in the passing game this season, he caught six of eight balls for 37 yards last week after a 4-5 performance for 50 yards in Week 2. Humphrey has a 5.2-yard ADOT and just 9.17% of the air yards share, he is making things happen on a limited basis with the ball in his hands but there is not much potential. Marvin Mims Jr. and Devaughn Vele have seen limited action, Vele could be returning after two missed games, he was targeted eight times and caught all eight passes but posted just 39 yards and failed to score in Week 1. The Broncos are Stack 23/21 on DraftKings and Stack 25/24 on FanDuel, they lack even one appealing player this week with Williams’ 13th-ranked running back value mark looking like their best NFL DFS asset.
Green Bay Packers
Game Total: 44.0 / GB -3.0 (23.5 imp.)
Plays: 60.33% rush / 39.67% pass / 25.0 ppg
oppDEF: 3.6 ypa rush / 5.9 ypa pass / 10.0 ppg / 11.59% sack
Key Player: Jordan Love (Q – Likely)
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Josh Jacobs (on/off), Tucker Kraft, Luke Musgrave, Emanuel Wilson (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, Jordan Addison, Jalen Nailor, Ty Chandler
Lineup Notes: As the rumor mill crashes into Sunday morning, it seems increasingly likely that quarterback Jordan Love will make his return for the Packers, instantly vaulting the offense back to NFL DFS relevance on both sites. Love is a strong passing option, in Week 1, the quarterback completed 17 of 34 attempts for 260 yards and two touchdowns but lost an interception. Love works with very solid weapons that will help him find footing in his return, the team’s wide receiver room runs deep with targets available for everyone across the season. The running back position is solidified with veteran Josh Jacobs, who has moderate involvement in the passing game for stacking purposes but is probably better as a standalone option. Jacobs has gained 4.5 yards per rush attempt on 20.7 carries per game, including 32 carries in Week 2 at the expense of passing volume in the absence of Love. With the quarterback in action again, Jacobs will likely be in a smaller role with a few potential touches in the passing game and slightly more conservative volume on the ground. The veteran slots in as RB14/18 on DraftKings and RB16/19 on the blue site. While Jacobs chisels at a team allowing just 3.6 yards per rush attempt, the passing game will attempt to overcome the solid 5.9 yards per pass attempt that the Vikings have allowed. Minnesota ranks fifth in football with an 11.59% sack rate and also lands fifth at a 4.10% interception rate over three games. The game is carrying a sturdy 44-point total with Green Bay favored by 3.0 at home, there is plenty of talent in the passing game to beat the aggressive Minnesota defense. Love’s primary weapon and one of the players to whom we are gaining the most exposure in AceMind Sims is Jayden Reed, a multi-faceted big-play weapon in the passing game and on the ground. Reed has gained 17.8 yards per rush attempt on just 1.7 opportunities as a gadget runner, he has a rushing touchdown on the board already this season. The receiver has picked up 3.3 catches per game on a 4.7 targets average, stacking up 14.1 yards per target for the season. Reed has caught a touchdown pass while garnering a solid 19.15% air yards share despite a measly 6.8-yard ADOT. The downfield operators are slightly more limited for volume but all possess game-breaking ability at a variety of prices. Christian Watson has a 14.3-yard ADOT with 2.3 targets per game, Romeo Doubs is carrying a 14-yard average depth of target on his 4.0 targets as the second-most involved receiver over three weeks, and Dontayvion Wicks has a 12.9-yard ADOT on 2.7 targets per game with a low-owned touchdown on the board already at cheap pricing. Reed is easily the most highly rated receiver from this group in our model at WR10/3 on DraftKings and WR9/2 on FanDuel, he is a strong points-per dollar play both in and out of stacks of Packers. Watson rates as a playable WR33/38 and WR36/38 with Doubs not far behind and Wicks as more of a big upside longshot. The tight end volume has been split between Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft, with a slight edge toward the latter. Kraft saw 39 snaps in Week 3 after playing more than 50 in each of the first two weeks. He drew three targets and caught two passes last week while Musgrave played 33 snaps and caught his lone target on 11 routes run. Between the two, Kraft has been more involved and Musgrave comes in with a questionable tag for the week, pushing the advantage to Kraft in this matchup, but he is only a low-end positional option as TE20/20 and TE22/22. The Packers rank as Stack 12/8 on DraftKings and Stack 13/2 on FanDuel, where they are showing excellent points-per-dollar upside. Minnesota provides good weapons for bring-back plays in stacks as desired in a game that is one of the more likely to turn into a shootout in Week 4 despite an aggressive and solid defense over the first three weeks from Minnesota.
Houston Texans
Game Total: 45 / HOU -5.5 (25.25 imp.)
Plays: 38.0% rush / 62.0% pass / 18.3 ppg
oppDEF: 4.0 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass / 28.3 ppg / 4.67% sack
Key Player: CJ Stroud
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon (Q – Gametime), Dalton Schultz, Robert Woods, Cam Akers (on/off), John Metchie III (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Travis Etienne Jr., Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas Jr., Gabe Davis, Brenton Strange
Lineup Notes: This game’s upside seemingly comes down to Jaguars’ quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s ability to deliver on his talent and the team’s overall upside. Jacksonville has an abundance of good-to-very-good weapons on offense, though they will be without tight end Evan Engram again in Week 4. The Jaguars are 5.5-point underdogs against a Houston team that stacks up like a strong option across the DFS landscape this week and as our top stack by raw fantasy points. Jacksonville should be a good source of bring-back plays in Texans stacks at worst, but they could turn in a playable performance if the quarterback is far better than his lousy Week 3, and most of his last 8-10 games. Lawrence threw for just 178 yards with a touchdown and an interception last week, completing 21 of 38 attempts and looking out of synch in the offense, he will need to keep pace with Houston to put our top-ranked stack by points on the board on both sites. The Texans are Stack 1/4 on DraftKings and Stack 1/1 on FanDuel, they are showing major upside for individual and correlated scoring in Week 4 against a defense that has been steamrolled for 7.4 yard per pass attempt to rank 27th over three weeks. Jacksonville is allowing 28.3 points per game and they have generated a low-ranked 4.67% sack rate on defense this year, this should be a spot for CJ Stroud and his weapons to feast offensively. Stroud has been conservative over the season’s first few weeks, throwing 33 times per game but just for 7.4 intended air yards per attempt, with 7.2 yards completed per pass attempt. Stroud ahs thrown four touchdowns against two interceptions but he is yet to have a big game in 2024, that could be coming as our QB 3/7 and QB 5/1 across sites this week. Stroud has two premium receivers in Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs with some interesting options down the depth chart in the absence of fellow receiver Tank Dell who will miss Week 4. Dameon Pierce is also out in the rushing game but the team is expecting high-volume veteran starter Joe Mixon back in action. All of these pieces are strongly ranked at their respective positions in the top-scoring stack of the week. In addition to Stroud, Collins is WR3/1 on both sites, while Diggs is not far behind as WR8/7 and WR8/8. Mixon is RB11/17 and RB13/23 but could outdraw those marks on sheer volume if this game goes to the ground. Mixon carried the ball 30 times for 159 yards with three catches for another 19 yards and scored on the ground in his Houston debut in Week 1. Diggs has been in the end zone twice, with both scores coming in Week 1, but he caught 10 balls for 94 yards on 12 targets in Week 3 and should see increased volume with Dell out. Collins has seen 9.3 targets per game on a 12.1-yard ADOT as a true downfield weapon for Stroud, he has a touchdown and 44.69% of the team’s air yards share so far this season. Tight end Dalton Schultz was more limited than we have come to expect over the early weeks of this season. Schultz drew just three targets despite running 28 routes in Week 1, catching all three but posting only 16 yards. He was similarly limited on 2-3 receiving over 26 routes in Week 2 and caught two of five opportunities for 11 yards on 39 routes run in Week 3. The tight end was more involved and simply better last season, he is a cheap upside play with scoring potential in the red zone boosting expectations slightly. Schultz ranks as TE6/3 on DraftKings and TE8/4 on FanDuel, he is highly playable across both sites both in stacks and out of them as a cheap touchdown-dependent positional option. Robert Woods and John Metchie III should see limited opportunity in the offense in place of Dell, but most of the volume goes to the regulars who have already been mentioned. Woods has two catches on the season, his only two targets came in Week 3. Metchie has not been active this season but has familiarly with the offense. On the ground, if Mixon does not play, Cam Akers would be thrust into a prominent role at a fair price, for now he is overpriced for a limited backup role. The remaining active players are low-end depth options who do not provide true playability outside of dart throws into the largest of fields. Update: With Mixon still questionable, JJ Taylor has been added from the practice squad as a limited depth option who is unlikely to matter. UPDATE: Joe Mixon is OUT. Cam Akers will see the biggest uptick in rushing volume while the passing game takes a general step further forward.
Indianapolis Colts
Game Total: 39.5 / IND -1.5 (20.5 imp.)
Plays: 48.67% rush / 51.33% pass / 19.3 ppg
oppDEF: 3.5 ypa rush / 5.9 ypa pass / 8.7 ppg / 10.0% sack
Key Player: Anthony Richardson
Setting: at most two (this allows for “naked” Richardson lineups)
Team Group: Michael Pittman Jr., Jonathan Taylor (on/off), Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell, Kylen Granson
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Najee Harris, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, Cordarrelle Patterson, Calvin Austin III
Lineup Notes: The Colts are going to remain an interesting roller coaster option for NFL DFS lineups throughout the season as long as quarterback Anthony Richardson continues taking shots down the field. For better or worse, and it has frequently been worse over three weeks, the quarterback has a massive 12.6 intended air yards per pass attempt. This has resulted in several very big plays down the field and some deep high-scoring touchdowns but also a limited 49.0% completion rate with three touchdowns to six interceptions. Richardson has work to do in the accuracy department but he may have the biggest arm in the league right now and he has interesting downfield weapons at his disposal as well as a strong ground game. Jonathan Taylor is a true bellcow back who sees a large portion of the team’s volume on the ground and also has potential in the passing game each week. The upside for playing Taylor in stacks of Colts along with the quarterback and a pass-catcher is that he can gain scoring potential from deep passing connections that get downfield in a hurry but fail to get into the end zone. The more opportunities one can provide a rusher like Taylor inside the 10-yard line, the more he is going to punch the ball in for six. The running back has three touchdowns over the first three weeks and has put up a very solid 5.1 yards per rush attempt on 17.0 carries per game. Michael Pittman Jr. has failed to gain more than the 36 yards he posted in Week 3 while also not finding the end zone. The scoring and yardage output is coming, Pittman is a high-end receiver who has a 10.3-yard ADOT and 6.7 targets per game, he is no longer on the injury report this week and stands a good chance to post a strong game. Josh Downs returned to the offense in Week 3, pushing Adonai Mitchell to limited target and snap volume. Downs operates closer than his counterparts in the offense, working underneath for short passes and doing work in yards after the catch. The receiver picked up five targets in his return to action, hauling in three passes and gaining 22 yards over his 31 snaps and 24 routes. Alec Pierce has been the beneficiary of the downfield attempts by the quarterback early this year, he has a pair of touchdowns on a massive 23.9-yard average depth of target and has garnered a 33.45% share of the air yards. Pierce is a big swing for NFL DFS play, he is affordable but he is reliant entirely on making the big plays on limited volume, he has seen 4.0 targets per game, with three of them coming in a Week 1 performance that saw him connect for 125 yards and a touchdown on three catches. In Week 2 he caught five of seven targets for another 56 yards and a touchdown but he was limited to just one big 44-yard gain on a lone catch with two targets over 23 routes – down from 35 in Week 2 – in his more pedestrian Week 3 performance. Pierce is good for DFS in that he has a very high big play ceiling and he will fall to limited popularity at low prices most weeks, his explosive upside can outpace a ranking as just WR61/70 and WR65/70 but expectations should be tempered, the receiver is a high-end dart throw in an offense with a lot of mouths to feed. The three-headed tight end situation on this team is best left alone when it comes to DFS, Kylen Granson, Mo Alie-Cox, and Drew Ogletree have split snaps and targets essentially three ways, limiting the ceiling to guessing at touchdown receptions any given week. Ashton Dulin played 13 snaps in Week 3, drawing one target on six routes. He had a touchdown on a big 54-yard grab on his lone Week 1 target and hauled in a 13-yard pass in Week 2 but did not score. Dulin is an extremely limited-volume dart at best. The Colts ranks as Stack 15/20 on DraftKings and Stack 17/21 on the FanDuel slate, they are probably better as strong standalone players in other lineups, but stacks with Richardson+1 or Richardson+2 are viable for big play potential and the quarterback has the rushing upside to stand solo in lineups as well. Overall, this is a limited game with a 39.5-point total in which the Colts are slight underdogs at home against a very good Steelers defense. Over Weeks 1-3, the Pittsburgh defense ranks second with 3.5 yards allowed per rush attempt and 10th with 5.9 yards per pass attempt, and they have a seventh-ranked 10.0% sack rate with a second-ranked 4.94% interception rate in the small sample. Najee Harris and George Pickens, as well as Pat Freiermuth the tight end, are reasonable bring-back plays in a similarly limited offense with less big play upside despite being favored.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Game Total: 45 / JAC +5.5 (19.75 imp.)
Plays: 36.99% rush / 63.01% pass / 13.3 ppg
oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 5.8 ypa pass / 24.7 ppg / 13.40% sack
Key Player: Trevor Lawrence
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Travis Etienne Jr., Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas Jr., Gabe Davis (Q – Likely), Brenton Strange, Tank Bigsby (on/of; large field), Parker Washington (very large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon, Dalton Schultz, Robert Woods
Lineup Notes: The performance of Trevor Lawrence will dictate how this game rolls. With an abundance of faith in CJ Stroud and the Houston offense’s ability to hold up their end of the bargain, and with quality skill players in the Jaguars’ offense, it comes down to Lawrence’s ability to put the ball in their hands in the right spot. The quarterback was bad in Week 3 and he has not had a strong start in a must-improve season. Lawrence was expected to make a major leap last year and it simply died on the vine, he had an OK but not good season and he showed signs of regression in his decision-making that also plagued him early this season. The quarterback has completed just 53.0% of his 29.67 pass attempts per game with two touchdown passes and an interception in three weeks. Lawrence’s 6.3 yards per pass attempt is unimpressive next to a solid 9.7 intended air yards per attempt, the quarterback has more potential than we have seen come through in results. Lawrence operates in a high-volume passing attack that will probably be trailing throughout the game, feeding the potential for passing. Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas Jr., and Gabe Davis are all reasonable options both in stacks and in bring-back roles and they are solid standalone receiver values within reason. Kirk has failed to score this season but has pulled in 24.88% of the team’s air yards on a 12.1-yard average depth of target. Thomas has a touchdown on 3.7 catches per game for 11.3 yards per target on an 11.3-yard ADOT for 23.3% of the air yards, he has been an interesting weapon early in the season. Thomas had five catches for 48 yards on nine targets, a season-high, in Week 3. He scored his touchdown in Week 1, catching four of four targets for 47 yards and the score, in Week 2 he posted 94 yards with two catches on four targets. Davis has been limited in practice this week with a shoulder injury but has trended toward playing. The receiver has not made a strong impact over three weeks, he had two catches for 18 yards last week despite seeing six targets on 34 routes run. Davis has good downfield ability to match his teammates, he is sporting a 12.6-yard ADOT on 5.3 targets per game for the season and could be an interesting low-owned angle into a somewhat popular stack as well as a lower-owned bring-back option on the other side of more popular Houston stacks as a differentiator. Brenton Strange will see the volume at the tight end position again with Evan Engram out for Week 4. In the same situation last week, Strange posted two catches on five targets for just 12 yards but did fall into the end zone with the ball in his hands to pay off investors. The tight end remains cheap and has a similar upside for value-based scoring again this week as TE13/4 on DraftKings and TE11/10 on FanDuel. Depth options including Tank Bigsby, Parker Washington, Tim Jones, and Devin Duvernay are all limited unless Davis does not play. On the ground, running back Travis Etienne Jr. offers a sturdy upside for volume in both the running game and passing game. Etienne gained 68 yards on 11 carries and 17 yards on 4-6 receiving last week and has posted 4.6 yards per rush attempt with 2.6 yards before contact and 2.0 yards after contact per attempt and two touchdowns on the year. Etienne is playable in stacks and as a standalone running back with volume and skill-based upside in Week 4, he may be the most playable piece of the Jaguars as RB12/20 and RB17/21. The Jaguars rank as just Stack 14/16 and Stack 18/13 across sites.
Kansas City Chiefs
Game Total: 40.5 / KC -7.5 (24.0 imp.)
Plays: 46.96% rush / 53.04% pass / 25.0 ppg
oppDEF: 3.9 ypa rush / 5.8 ypa pass / 11.0 ppg / 8.08% sack
Key Player: Patrick Mahomes
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Carson Steele (on/off), Samaje Perine (on/off), Kareem Hunt (on/off), Noah Gray, Justin Watson (large field), JuJu Smith-Schuster (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: JK Dobbins, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Hayden Hurst, Joshua Palmer
Lineup Notes: The Chiefs have posted a very quiet 25 points per game over the first three weeks of 2024, the seventh-highest-scoring offense in football. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown a pair of touchdown passes in each of the past two games but had just 217 yards on 26-39 passing last week and 151 yards on 18-25 passing in Week 2 with two interceptions that week and four total on the season against just five touchdown passes. Mahomes has a clear connection with standout receiver Rashee Rice who has been the clear bright point for this team. Rice has hauled in two touchdown passes on 9.7 targets per game, putting up 96 yards per game and 9.9 yards per target on a 5.2-yard ADOT. The Kansas City offense continues to operate mostly underneath, letting skill players do their thing as the offense marches methodically down field, rather than taking big swings at deep passes. Mahomes has had just a limited connection with aging star tight end Travis Kelce, whose lack of output is growing concerning with passing weeks. Kelce could quiet any doubt with a big game this week, of course, but he has failed to score or even gain 35 yards while peaking at just four catches in Week 3. Kelce has been supplanted as the prime option in the passing attack, but he still rates highly among tight end options on this slate and could see big opportunity for scoring plays at worst. Xavier Worthy has explosive big-play upside as he demonstrated with a touchdown on the ground and another in the passing game in Week 1, but he will be a roller coaster for scoring as demonstrated in limited returns in Weeks 2 and 3. Worthy has sen just 3.7 targets per game with a 9.8-yard ADOT but he has game-breaking ability and remains a value consideration in stacks. Carson Steele was a popular running back who came through with 72 yards on 17 carries but did not score at cheap prices last week. Steele is not involved to a great degree in the passing game, that role falls more to Samaje Perine, and potentially to the returning Kareem Hunt, who had his best seasons in Kansas City early in his career. Hunt is a wildcard who is expected to get a few touches, but Steele is probably the strongest bet for cheap volume and touchdown potential. Kansas City’s depth options are comprised of secondary tight end Noah Gray, who sees limited targets and is typically better in Showdown formats, and receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Justin Watson, who have seen three (all in Week 3) and five targets on the season. Smith-Schuster did score, hauling in two of the three targets last week for 17 yards in limited action, he is a dart throw in a familiar offense. The Chiefs rank as Stack 9/14 on DraftKings and Stack 10/7 on FanDuel against a Chargers defense that has been strong early in 2024. Los Angeles has allowed just 3.9 yards per rush attempt and 5.8 yards per pass attempt while limiting opponents to just 11.0 points per game over three weeks.
Las Vegas Raiders
Game Total: 37 / LV +2.0 (17.5 imp.)
Plays: 30.90% rush / 69.10% pass / 19.3 ppg
oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 6.1 ypa pass / 22.3 ppg / 8.49% sack
Key Player: Gardner Minshew
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, Zamir White (on/off), Alexander Mattison (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, Jerome Ford, Jordan Akins, Elijah Moore, D’Onta Foreman
Lineup Notes: The Raiders were a bit of a letdown in Week 3, after a strong start in the passing game over the first two weeks of the season, quarterback Gardner Minshew and a limited Vegas offense crapped out in Week 3 in what looked like a primed opportunity. The team bounces back as just Stack 18/15 and Stack 21/9 across sites, they have points-per-dollar value and individual players who are good for standalone shares against a middle-of-the-road Cleveland defense this week. Minshew has seen solid volume to this point, throwing the ball 33 times per game and completing three touchdown passes but he has also thrown three interceptions while completing a solid 74% of his passes for 249.0 yards per game and 7.50 per attempt. The quarterback has built an early connection with standout rookie first-round tight end Brock Bowers and continues to build on last season’s success for touchdown scoring with Jakobi Meyers in the absence of star receiver Davante Adams, who will sit again in Week 4. Adams was out last week and Meyers scored his first touchdown of the season while drawing a season-high nine targets. He caught seven of them for 62 yards and a score and comes with similar volume-and-opportunity upside this week. Adams is joined by Tre Tucker in the receiving group. Tucker had seven catches for 96 yards on nine targets and found paydirt in Week 3, he was far more limited over the first two weeks of the season but could see similar volume and has a strong 8.9-yard ADOT for the season. Bowers has pulled in six of seven targets on average with a 17.46% air yards share on a 5.6-yard ADOT but has failed to score early this season. The tight end has just one red zone target over three games, despite catching nine of nine for 98 yards in Week 2 and seeing 12 targets combined in Weeks 1 and 3. Bowers is a solid play who rates as one of our strongest positional options in simulations for both DraftKings and FanDuel, he is a clear go-to tight end both in stacks and as a standalone player and he ranks as TE1/2 on DraftKings and TE1/1 on FanDuel this week. The running game for Las Vegas is split between Zamir White and Alexander Mattison, who have collectively gained just 43 yards per game on 14.7 carries this season. Mattison has seen the end zone three times, twice on the ground despite less volume and once in the passing game, he out-snapped White 25-14 last week and also drew more opportunities in Week 1, carrying the ball five times for 19 yards with 43 more and a touchdown coming on four catches. White has gained just 3.2 yards per attempt and has failed to score while drawing just 10-13 potential touches per week as a low-end positional option. The running backs do not rate as strong plays in the timeshare, White is RB22/19 and 25/20 while Mattison is RB29/29 and 29/31. DJ Turner and Harrison Bryant are depth non-options, Turner went untargeted on eight routes last week and has just one target and one carry for the season, while Bryant has one target that he did not catch over three weeks. The Raiders are not an overly appealing stack this week but the tight end is an excellent individual play, and Meyers offers scoring-based upside as WR20/13 and WR22/3, with a particular focus on his points-per-dollar upside at just $5,400 on FanDuel.
Los Angeles Chargers
Game Total: 40.5 / LAC +7.5 (16.5 imp.)
Plays: 55.49% rush / 44.51% pass / 19.3 ppg
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 20.7 ppg / 5.36% sack
Key Player: Justin Herbert (Q – Likely)
Setting: at least one
Team Group: JK Dobbins (on/off), Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Hayden Hurst, Joshua Palmer, Will Dissly, Simi Fehoko (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Carson Steele (on/off), Samaje Perine (on/off)
Lineup Notes: The Chargers defense has outplayed their offense this season, the team has been good at limiting opponents both in scoring and yardage in all capacities this season but their offense has sputtered around a diminished receiving group while thriving only on the ground. Los Angeles came into the season not knowing what to expect from JK Dobbins, until his 135-yard explosion on 10 carries with a touchdown in Week 1. Dobbins repeated the trick on 17 carries in Week 2, totaling 131 yards with another touchdown. He failed to score and gained just 44 yards on 15 carries but did see three targets in the passing game for an added 10 yards in Week 3. The running back is one of the focal points of the offense, he ranks as RB 19/23 and RB21/25 across sites as a playable but low-priority option in a low-end offense. Quarterback Justin Herbert has thrown for just 133 yards per game on 67% passing over 21.3 attempts per game, completing four touchdown passes to just one interception but averaging a limited 6.2 yards per attempt on 7.3 intended air yards and 3.5 actual air yards per attempt. Herbert was injured last season and is just rounding back into form at NFL game speed, he completed 12 of just 18 attempts for 125 yards and a touchdown last week but the limited volume and limited talents at receiver strangle the upside for this team in a 40.5-point game that has them as 7.5-point underdogs with just a 16.5-point implied team total. Los Angeles offers Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Joshua Palmer in the passing attack. None of those receivers has been over even 60 yards in a game this season, let alone 100, though Johnston has shown growth over the past two weeks as an emerging first-read option in this offense. The 2023 first-round pick had five catches for 51 yards and two touchdowns in Week 2 and came back with two receptions and 44 yards with another score in Week 3. McConkey is a rookie who has an 8.8-yard ADOT and 35.8% of the air yards for the season on 5.7 targets per game with a touchdown that came in Week 1. Palmer was perhaps the team’s buzziest receiver in the preseason, he has managed just four catches on six targets over Weeks 1 and 2 before a DNP in Week 3, he is expected back this week but has seen just a limited 7.7-yard average depth of target as the third banana in a low-end passing game. Hayden Hurst and Gus Edwards are mixer value plays, Edwards got 11 carries in Week 1, posting just 26 yards and he added 59 yards on 18 carries in Week 2 but seems to have lost the edge to Dobbins’ better play. Hurst has seen seven early targets but has not done anything with them over three games, he is also dealing with an Achilles injury and comes in questionable this week in a low-volume low-end spot. The Chargers are Stack 22/24 on DraftKings and Stack 24/26 on FanDuel, they offer virtually no appeal, even Dobbins is limited for points and value rankings.
Los Angeles Rams
Game Total: 40.5 / LAR +3.0 (18.75 imp.)
Plays: 38.12% rush / 61.88% pass / 19.0 ppg
oppDEF: 4.5 ypa rush / 5.6 ypa pass / 19.0 ppg / 7.37% sack
Key Player: Matthew Stafford
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Kyren Williams, Demarcus Robinson, Tutu Atwell, Tyler Johnson, Jordan Whittington, Colby Parkinson
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, D’Andre Swift
Lineup Notes: In a game with just a 40.5-point total against an unpredictable but undeniably skilled Bears’ offense, the Rams best option might be the team’s value-based Defense that rates as D6/1 on DraftKings and D6/6 on FanDuel despite not showing much over the season’s first three weeks. Of course, when it comes to not showing much, one needs look no further than the team’s offense for another culprit. Quarterback Matthew Stafford probably deserves better than spending this year throwing balls to Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell with stars Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua on the shelf. Stafford remains a gamer, he has thrown 33.67 passes per game and has completed 68.0% of them with a pair of touchdowns and one interception over three games. He has put up 7.4 yards per pass attempt on 7.0 intended air yards per attempt, but the options in the passing game leave much to be desired. Robinson caught just one of four targets in Week 3, a 32-yard gain that was ultimately meaningless for NFL and DFS purposes. The receiver was better on limited volume in a tertiary role. Atwell had four catches for 93 yards on five targets last week and caught three of four targets for 48 yards in Week 2 but has failed to score. Kyren Williams is an option on the ground, the lead running back is one of only a few bellcow options, he has played 87% of the team’s snaps early in the season and saw 90% of them last week with 18 carries and 3.3 targets per game. Williams has gained just three yards per rush attempt but has scored four times on the ground this season, he has gained 5.8 yards per target on a -.4 yard ADOT, operating mostly behind the line and using his big play explosiveness to claw back yardage for gains. Williams rates as RB4/3 and RB3/2, he is a strong points-per-dollar option with high-end scoring potential on both sites this week. The balance of the Rams’ offense is highly limited, the stack ranks as Stack 20/22 and 20/23 against a defense that has been bad against the run with 4.5 yards allowed per attempt but good against the pass with just 5.6 yards allowed per attempt and a 7.37% sack rate for the season. The Rams are interesting on the ground and for the value potential of their low-end defense against the rookie signal-caller in Chicago. Depth options on this team include Tyler Johnson and Jordan Whittington who have been limited to short-yardage attempts with Whittington picking up two targets in Week 2 and three in Week 3 after having a rushing touchdown called back in Week 1. Johnson gained 20 yards on three catches and four targets last week, he had 79 yards on a surprising 5-7 receiving in Week 1 but has not scored this season. Tight end Colby Parkinson caught three of five targets for 21 yards last week and had four catches for 47 yards in Week 1 with limited output in Week 2, he is at best a mixer of a tight end with limited touchdown-based upside at a low price. Parkinson has not scored a touchdown this season, he is just TE17/22 and TE18/17 this week in a lousy stack.
Minnesota Vikings
Game Total: 43.5 / MIN +3.0 (20.25 imp.)
Plays: 47.27% rush / 52.73% pass / 28.3 ppg
oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 6.5 ypa pass / 19.3 ppg / 9.73% sack
Key Player: Sam Darnold
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones, Jalen Nailor, Brandon Powell, Johnny Mundt (large field), Josh Oliver (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Josh Jacobs, Tucker Kraft, Luke Musgrave
Lineup Notes: With star receiver Justin Jefferson and a returning second option in Jordan Addison, the Vikings already strong passing attack looks like it could gain ground in Week 4. Addison played Week 1 but was limited to just 24 snaps and four targets on 14 routes, catching three for 35 yards. Addison was limited in practices but does not have an injury designation heading into Sunday, he was an excellent receiver as a rookie last year, putting up 10 touchdowns and 911 yards on 70-108 receiving with 8.4 yards per target. Jefferson was, of course, the team’s best option. The star gained 1,074 yards and scored five times despite playing in just 10 games and seeing 100 targets. Jefferson put up far bigger numbers in complete seasons in years prior and he is off to a good start in 2024 with three touchdowns and 273 yards on 14-21 receiving over three weeks. Jefferson was targeted six times in Week 1 and added a target in each subsequent game, scoring a touchdown in each week to date. The receiver has a tremendous 12.2-yard ADOT and has picked up 46.78% of the team’s air yards on 7.0 targets per game. The receivers are in good position because quarterback Sam Darnold has been an effective game manager for this squad in a surprising start to his year. Darnold has thrown the ball just 26 times per game this season, but he has completed 68.0% of his passes for 8.4 yards per attempt with eight touchdown passes against just two interceptions for the early standout. Darnold was seemingly a lost cause as recently as August but he has seized this opportunity with both hands and has looked very good in early returns. He was a popular option in DraftKings sims throughout the week as our QB8 by points but QB3 by points-per-dollar at just $5,700 on the site. The passer has two excellent weapons in the receivers and a very good running back in Aaron Jones, who is playable on his own or in stacks, given upside for both rushing and receiving. Jones gained 102 yards on 19 carries and added 46 yards on five receptions with a receiving touchdown in Week 3, he also had a strong Week 1 with 94 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries but slipped to just 68 yards from scrimmage with no scoring on 14 touches in Week 2. The running back rates as a strong positional value, he is RB8/8 on DraftKings and RB10/13 on FanDuel in a strongly rated stack. Jefferson leads the group as WR1 by fantasy points on both sites this week, he is primed for a big performance against a team allowing 6.5 yards per pass attempt. The receiver is expensive, he rates as just WR11 and WR14 across DraftKings and FanDuel by points-per-dollar, but his ceiling is significant. Ty Chandler has been productive on limited opportunities, he carried the ball 10 times for 82 yards in Week 2 but had just 13 yards on seven carries last week. Chandler has yet to find the end zone and peaked at 11 potential touches in Week 1, his upside is limited to big plays and/or touchdown output in a small role behind a high-volume workhorse of a running back. Johnny Mundt has seen three targets in each of the teams three games, he has a touchdown on one catch for two yards last week with similar touchdown-dependent scoring any given week. Mundy is a low-end TE who ranks as TE24/26 and 23/24. Jalen Nailor will presumably take a slight step back with Addison’s return, he was targeted four times in each of the last two games, catching three balls in each outing for 54 yards in Week 2 and 31 yards last week. Nailor has scored in every game this season, he may be a sneaky way to approach shares in Minnesota stacks and he will be a good second man in Darnold+2 builds, though his Week 1 touchdown with Addison active came on one big 21-yard reception on just one target over 13 routes run. Nailor has an 11.8-yard ADOT for the season, he is a big play option in this offense and Darnold may look his way to surprise and bend the slate. Depth options like Trent Sherfield Sr., Brandon Powell, and tight end Josh Oliver have been limited and will be pushed further for any volume with Addison’s return. Minnesota ranks as Stack 4/7 on DraftKings and Stack 6/12 on FanDuel at somewhat higher relative pricing. The Vikings defense is also a consideration, the team lands as D8/4 on DraftKings and D8/15 on FanDuel at a higher price. Green Bay should score in a game that has a 44-point total with the Packers favored by three at home, but Minnesota’s defense has been aggressive with a 39.3% blitz rate, 33.8% pressure rate, 16 sacks, and five interceptions over three games.
New England Patriots
Game Total: 41.0 / NE +10.5 (15.25 imp.)
Plays: 50.56% rush / 49.44% pass / 13.0 ppg
oppDEF: 4.5 ypa rush / 8.1 ypa pass / 23.0 ppg / 8.99% sack
Key Player: Jacoby Brissett
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Rhamondre Stevenson (on/off), DeMario Douglas, Hunter Henry, Antonio Gibson (on/off), Ja’Lynn Polk, KJ Osborn, Tyquan Thornton
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Jordan Mason, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle
Lineup Notes: The Patriots are a uniquely low-end option this week. The team rates as Stack 24/23 and Stack 26/25 across sites, the bottom of the board by points on both and nearly the bottom for value. New England has been anemic with 13.5 points scored per game, they have a 15.25-point implied total as 10.5-point underdogs against a good San Francisco team that is getting weapons back despite not needing them to win this one. The 49ers have actually allowed significant gains on offense over the first three weeks, they rank 21st with 4.5 yards allowed per rush attempt and 30th with 8.1 yards allowed per pass. The team has managed a respectable 8.99% sack rate and has limited teams to 23.0 points per game despite the flow for yardage, they present a bend-don’t-break front to a very limited Patriots’ offense. Jacoby Brissett has thrown the ball just 23 times per game for 122.67 yards per outing and just one touchdown over three weeks, he was benched late in favor of rookie Drake Maye but will be starting again this week. Brissett has limited receivers led by DeMario Douglas who has caught nine balls on 12 targets this season, gaining 12 yards on two catches in Week 1 and 69 yards on seven catches in Week 3 but going untargeted over 25 routes run in Week 2. And that is their best receiver. Ja’Lynn Polk has the team’s lone receiving touchdown this season, he has caught 1.7 of 2.0 targets per game over three appearances, averaging 5.2 yards per target on a 7.7-yard ADOT. The team’s depth leader is Tyquan Thornton who has a 20.0-yard ADOT and 20.1% of the team’s air yards despite seeing just four targets, three in Week 1 and one last week. Thornton caught two passes for 27 yards in Week 1 and none since. KJ Osborn ran 27 routes on 36 snaps in Week 3, he went untargeted. The receiver had one catch on two targets in Week 2 and three catches for 21 yards on a season-high six targets in Week 1. The team’s most playable option remains running back Rhamondre Stevenson despite his incredibly limited gameflow based output in Week 3. Stevenson carried the ball just six times after 25 attempts in Week 1 and 21 attempts in Week 2. He gained a mere 23 yards and failed to score on the ground for the first time this season while also going untargeted despite running 12 routes on a limited 22 snaps. Stevenson gained 81 yards on the ground in Week 2 and added nine yards on 2-5 receiving, scoring his touchdown in the rushing game. He was good in Week 1 with 120 yards and a touchdown on his 25 carries and another three touches on three targets, though he gained just six yards on those and did not score. Stevenson checks in as RB16/15 on DraftKings and RB19/16 on FanDuel, he is playable but a non-priority while the team stack is unappealing in the worst ways.
New Orleans Saints
Game Total: 41.5 / NO -3.0 (19.25 imp.)
Plays: 60.69% rush / 39.31% pass / 34.3 ppg
oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 5.8 ypa pass / 20.3 ppg / 3.16% sack
Key Player: Derek Carr
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Alvin Kamara (Q – Likely), Chris Olvae (Q – Gametime), Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson, Mason Tipton (large field), Foster Moreau (large field), Cedrick Wilson (Q; large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts, Ray-Ray McCloud, Tyler Allgeier
Lineup Notes: Despite a middling 41-point total, the game between the Saints and Falcons looks like an interesting spot to mine DFS quality in Week 4. Both teams have capable veteran signal-callers with reasonable potential for scoring demonstrated early in 2024, and both stacks feature premium weapons at ever skill position. The teams provide a balanced variety of prices across positions and bring-back plays work in both directions in what could be a sneakily high-quality game. Of course, the Falcons’ defense has allowed just 4.1 yards per rush attempt and 5.8 yards per pass attempt, the 9th and 7th best marks in football over three weeks. The team has been better at stopping opponents for yardage than they have been in creating DFS scoring, their 3.16% sack rate and 2.17% interception rate are 31st and 17th in football. The Saints are led by a still-capable Derek Carr, who has six touchdown passes against just two interceptions over three weeks. Carr has thrown a limited number of passes in each game, 23 in Week 1, 16 in Week 2, and 25 in Week 3, but he has been highly efficient and has built a solid deep-shot connection with receiver Rashid Shaheed. The connection failed to come through in Week 3, contributing to a lower-end 142 yards and one touchdown with one interception performance for Carr. In Week 2 the veteran threw for 243 yards and two scores despite just 16 attempts, he had an interception that week but not in Week 1 when he racked up 200 yards and three touchdowns on just 23 attempts. Carr’s scoring potential can come and go on volume, he can be frequently usurped for touches by running back Alvin Kamara who is a weapon as an individual and in stacks this week. Kamara is involved in the passing game to the point that his big weeks are not entirely limiting to Carr, in Week 2 he posted a massive four-touchdown 180 yards from scrimmage performance on 20 carries and two catches, with 65 yards and a score in the passing game. Kamara remains elite, he is RB3/4 on DraftKings and 4/3 on FanDuel, and he rates highly in sims on both sites despite any popularity. Chris Olave is the team’s true lead wide receiver, he ranks as WR9/8 on DraftKings and WR10/7 on the FanDuel slate. Olave has a targetable 11.9-yard ADOT this season with 31.68% of the team’s air yards and a touchdown in the books despite drawing just two targets in Week 1. The receiver is dealing with a hamstring injury, he was limited in practices throughout the week but should suit up for Sunday. Shaheed caught three passes for 73 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 and had four catches for 96 yards and a score in Week 2 before slipping to zero catches on five targets last week. The burner of a wideout can get downfield in a hurry, giving Carr a major big play weapon in the right spots. He will continue to be hit-and-miss, but Shaheed will be worth shares throughout the season. The receiver has a gigantic 50.19% air yards share on an 18.8-yard average depth of target for the season if the point requires support. Juwan Johnson continues to see limited opportunity on targets despite running routes in a timeshare situation, he is the team’s best receiving tight end but the chances have been few and far between. Foster Moreau has been the nominal starting tight end but he sees very little opportunity and Taysom Hill has drawn looks but is a limited overall player with gadget upside. Johnson caught two passes in Week 1, putting up 26 yards and a touchdown in a typical performance, he has not scored or caught a ball since. Alvin Kamara is dealing with a rib injury, he is expected to play but if something changes backup running back Jamaal Williams will gain significant upside for both touches and scoring in the running game. Williams famously scored 17 touchdowns two seasons ago in Detroit before taking his foot off the gas in a backup role behind one of the best backs in the league as a free agent before last year, he has been limited but remains interesting when the role changes. Mason Tipton is a depth receiver in a break-glass-in-emergency sense, he has seen four targets over three games while playing 15 snaps in each of the first two outings and 18 in Week 3. He caught two passes for 11 yards last week. Tipton would only be in play if one of the other options comes off of the board, and even then it is only in a limited sense. Cedrick Wilson Jr. is questionable to play and limited for output, he has one catch in three games. The Saints are Stack 8/10 on DraftKings and Stack 11/11 on FanDuel, while Kamara and Olave both rate out as strong individuals for scoring and value with Shaheed as a playable mid-ranked dart throw receiver as an individual.
New York Jets
Game Total: 39 / NYG +3.0 (16.5 imp.)
Plays: 43.43% rush / 56.57% pass / 22.3 ppg
oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 5.1 ypa pass / 15.3 ppg / 12.36% sack
Key Player: Aaron Rodgers
Setting: at most one/at least one (at most will allow for “naked” Jones lineups)
Team Group: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, Braelon Allen (on/off), Mike Williams, Tyler Conklin
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Devaughn Vele
Lineup Notes: The game in East Rutherford looks like an interesting test for both a Denver defense that has had a hot start to the season with just 5.1 yards allowed per pass attempt (3rd) and 4.4 yards allowed per rush attempt (16th) and a 12.36% sack rate that ranks fourth, and for quarterback Aaron Rodgers and a resurgent Jets offense that rates as Stack 7/6 and Stack 8/5 across sites this week. Rodgers looked undeniably better in a good Week 3 performance, throwing more effective passes for 8.0 yards per attempt and gaining 281 yards on 27-35 passing for two touchdowns and no interceptions. The veteran continues to grow connections with his receivers, Garrett Wilson got in the end zone for the first time with Rodgers in Week 3, catching five of nine targets for just 33 yards but finding the end zone. He had six catches on 11 targets in Week 1 and four catches for 57 yards in Week 2. Wilson is a premium receiver with a good veteran presence to deliver the ball, he should see increasing volume as the season goes on and he already has drawn 42.86% of the team’s air yards share on 8.7 targets per game. New York features a star at the running back position, though he is threatened for some touches by an upstart rookie who has continued to produce in bunches. Breece Hall is the clear star, he has been at or near 100 scrimmage yards each week this season and has not failed to score a touchdown. Hall had 54 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries in Week 1, adding 39 yards on 5-6 receiving. In Week 2 hee put up 62 yards on 14 carries and 52 yards on 7-8 receiving with his touchdown coming in the passing attack. It was in that game that Braelon Allen first truly got involved, the rookie carried the ball seven times for 33 yards and a touchdown and poached another score on a passing play, gaining 23 yards on 2-4 receiving. In Week 3, Hall carried the ball 16 times for 54 yards and a touchdown and added 29 yards on 4-5 receiving while Allen got 11 carries and three targets, converting all three and posting 55 yards on the ground and 13 in the passing game over just 21 snaps. The rookie will continue to see touches as long as he is providing excellent yards per attempt numbers, but Hall remains the go-to and his output has only been impacted in small ways by Allen’s presence. In the passing game, the Jets offense picks up touchdown potential with Rodgers’ strong connection with veteran and former Packers teammate Allen Lazard, who has three touchdowns on 5.3 targets per game, drawing a 9.4-yard ADOT and 28.75% of the team’s air yards. Lazard scored twice in Week 1 and again in Week 3 but had a forgettable Week 2, the veteran will live and die with touchdowns this season but he has value in stacks and as a cheap standalone last man in as WR37/31 and 34/37. Mike Williams is highly skilled and should see increasing workload as a deep threat. Williams ran 20 routes on 36 snaps in Week 2 and 20 routes on 31 snaps in Week 3 after being limited to just four routes and zero targets in Week 1. The receiver has yet to find paydirt, he has four catches for just 53 yards on the season, though that technically amounts to 10.6 yards per target and a 10.4-yard ADOT. Williams should see deep looks, he has touchdown-based ceiling potential any given week but has yet to show much this season as he rounds into form. Tyler Conklin was highly targeted in Week 3 after a quiet first two games, the tight end caught five of six targets for 93 yards but failed to score. Conklin was regularly targeted in this offense and caught more than 60 passes last year, he should continue to be a low-priority touchdown-dependent tight end with any-given-slate scoring upside in stacks with Rodgers. Conklin is TE10/8 on DraftKings and TE15/15 on FanDuel this week. The Jets’ depth players are not worth consideration.
Philadelphia Eagles
Game Total: 42.0 / PHI -1.0 (21.5 imp.)
Plays: 47.85% rush / 52.15% pass / 23.3 ppg
oppDEF: 4.9 ypa rush / 6.0 ypa pass / 20.7 ppg / 1.69% sack
Key Player: Jalen Hurts
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Saquon Barkley, Dallas Goedert, Jahan Dotson, Parris Campbell, Johnny Wilson
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, Jalen McMillan, Cade Otton
Lineup Notes: Both AJ Brown and Devonta Smith are OUT in a disaster for the Eagles’ passing game. The team takes a significant hit in rankings after looking like a solid option when those receivers were expected to play. The line in Vegas still favors the Eagles, but it has closed from 2.5 to 1.0 points on Saturday. Philadelphia’s offense has been sputtering somewhat early in 2024, posting an OK 23.3 points per game on mixed volume, the clear bright spot has been superstar running back Saquon Barkley, who could be in line for another tremendous outing in Week 4. Barkley had a monster debut with the Eagles, carrying the ball 24 times for 109 yards and two touchdowns while adding a third score in the passing game on two catches for 23 yards. The running back’s output cooled to “just” 95 yards on 22 rush attempts and 21 yards on 4-5 receiving in Week 2 but he bounced back with 147 yards and another two rushing touchdowns on 17 carries with another four targets last week. Barkley is a standalone talent at the running back position, he is in a featured role in a far better offense behind the most competent offensive line he has ever played with, he has slate-breaking ability every week and he ranks as RB2/5 on DraftKings and RB2/7 on FanDuel with significant returns in sims on both sites. Dallas Goedert is a presumptive recipient of additional targets in this outing, with both of the team’s leading receivers out and the group relegated to just Jahan Dotson, Parris Campbell, and Johnny Wilson up top. Goedert is a good veteran who can still operate up and down the field, he had a big play but came up just shy of the end zone in a hilarious mic’d up last week, gaining a massive 170 yards on 10 catches and 11 targets in the venture. Goedert has similar volume-based upside and would pair well with Hurts+Barkley stacks again this week, but he needs to fall into the end zone to establish a truly dominant game. Dotson has three catches for 14 yards on five targets all season, he will be the nominal top receiver this week. Campbell did not play in Week 1, did not see a target on six routes in Week 2, and caught both of his targets for just 13 yards in Week 3. He is an unimpressive journeyman receiver but he will step into opportunity at a low price this week. Wilson leads the limited group with a 15.5-yard ADOT on 1.3 targets per game this season, but that amounts to one target in each of the first two games and two targets in Week 3. He caught only one of the passes in Week 3, posting nine yards and failing to score and did not catch the passes in Weeks 1 and 2. John Ross III is also likely to be active for this game after signing to the practice squad earlier in the week, he is a veteran of five seasons who peaked with 506 yards and three touchdowns on 28 receptions in Cincinnati in 2019, he has not seen action in the NFL since 2021 but has been on a few practice squads in the interim. The Eagles are almost entirely focused around Barkley, Goedert, and the two limited receivers in stacks with Hurts, only Barkley and Goedert truly play well out of stacks in Week 4. Still, given the firepower that remains and the 42-point total, Philadelphia ranks as Stack 5/5 and Stack 4/16 across sites, they are far more expensive on FanDuel where Goedert was priced up significantly.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Game Total: 39.5 / PIT -1.5 (20.5 imp.)
Plays: 57.14% rush / 42.86% pass / 17.0 ppg
oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass / 20.3 ppg / 7.55% sack
Key Player: Justin Fields
Setting: at most one/at least one (at most will allow for “naked” Fields lineups)
Team Group: George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth, Najee Harris, Calvin Austin III, Cordarrelle Patterson (large field), Van Jefferson Jr. (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Michael Pittman Jr. (Q), Jonathan Taylor (on/off), Alec Pierce, Josh Downs
Lineup Notes: Pittsburgh’s defense looks like a strong option in Week 4 against an up-and-down Colts offense with explosive upside but a quarterback that is completing fewer than 50% of his passes with six interceptions on the season. The Steelers, meanwhile, have a stout defense that has led the league in holding opponents to a mere 8.7 points per game, though they have faced light opposition so far while allowing just 3.5 yards per attempt on the ground and 5.9 per pass attempt, the 2nd and 10th best marks in the game. Pittsburgh has a 10.0% sack rate that sits 7th and a 2nd-ranked 4.94% interception rate in the small sample, amounting to nine sacks and four interceptions on an 18.5% blitz rate and 28.3% pressure rate. The pressure is outstanding for a limited blitz rate, this team can get out and chase Richardson but he has plenty of escape-ability and a gigantic cannon of an arm. The Steelers defense ranks as D3/7 on DraftKings and D3/13 on FanDuel this week. The Steelers’ offense is led by middling quarterback option Justin Fields who has been mostly unimpressive despite his team’s win streak. The defense has won these games, Fields was simply there wearing the uniform. The quarterback threw for 156 yards with no scoring or interceptoins while adding 57 yards but no scoring on 14 carries in Week 1, he ran the ball eight times for 27 yards and threw a touchdown but completed just 13 of 20 attempts for 117 yards in Week 2, then had an interception and a touchdown on 25-32 passing for 245 yards in a better Week 3 performance that sam him run just six times for six yards but score his first rushing touchdown. Fields will face a defense that has allowed 4.4 yards per rush attempt and 6.7 yards per pass attempt with mid-level pass rushing ability, the best piece of this offense is probably running back Najee Harris, but there are options in the passing game if the dice land upright. George Pickens is WR21/20 and 23/19 across sites, putting him firmly on the board. Pickens has seen six targets per game, catching 4.3 of them for 9.5 yards per target with an impressive 12.0-yard ADOT and 48.65% of the team’s air yards as the first, second, and third read in the passing game. Tight end Pat Freiermuth is the true second option, he has a 13.74% air yards share with 4.3 targets per game but, naturally, the team’s touchdowns have gone to depth receivers Calvin Austin III and Darnell Washington, who have one each despite 3.0 and 0.7 targets per game. Austin is the more relevant receiver, he is carrying a 9.9-yard ADOT and has put up 12.0 yards per target on limited volume. Veteran Van Jefferson Jr. is another limited option down the depth chart, he has an 8.4-yard ADOT on 1.7 targets per game this season. Harris is the play, the running back will see a consolidation of opportunities in the ground game with counterpart Jaylen Warren out for the week. The team does have backup Cordarelle Patterson who will see an uptick in his limited opportunities in both the rushing and passing game. Patterson may well step in to Warren’s exact role, which would surprise many who are heavy on Harris but the better bet is that the explosive Harris sees significant volume and produces a solid day as RB13/7 on DraftKings and RB14/6 on FanDuel, he is a good points-per-dollar play on both sites. Harris is an underrated player who the public does not like getting to, in truth he has excellent numbers and fair involvement for NFL DFS purposes, even when Warren is active in the timeshare. Patterson is a dart throw at best, he is a skilled player who has won tournaments in seasons past with big breakout games in similar situations, but the most likely outcome is limited backup-level opportunities. The Steelers are Stack19/11 on DraftKings and Stack22/18 on FanDuel, they are probably better deployed as individuals than as a unit this week.
San Francisco 49ers
Game Total: 41.0 / SF -10.5 (25.75 imp.)
Plays: 48.02% rush / 51.98% pass / 24.3 ppg
oppDEF: 3.7 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass / 19.0 ppg / 6.90% sack
Key Player: Brock Purdy
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Deebo Samuel (Q – Likely), Brandon Aiyuk, Jordan Mason, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle, Chris Conley, Ronnie Bell, Isaac Guerendo (large field), Kyle Juszczyk (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Rhamondre Stevenson (on/off), DeMario Douglas, Hunter Henry, Antonio Gibson (on/off), Ja’Lynn Polk, KJ Osborn, Tyquan Thornton
Lineup Notes: The 49ers are expected to get not only tight end stud George Kittle but also star Deebo Samuel back from injury this week in a surprisingly fast return. Samuel technically is questionable as of early Sunday morning but he is trending toward action even if it is in a limited sense in an easily winnable game. The Patriots’ lack of potential scoring on the other side of this contest is truly what is likely to keep the 49ers scoring somewhat in check, the team has all of the weapons needed to beat anyone in football, against an inept offensive opponent they will not need much. Samuel may see limited action or may run a few sprints as a decoy who opens things up for Brandon Aiyuk who is still searching for his first big game of the year after yielding to Jauan Jennings for a massive Week 3 performance. Jennings caught 11 of 12 passes for 175 yards and a whopping three touchdowns last week, standing out from the crowd and winning tournaments on every site. The receiver’s career day overshadowed a five-catch 48-yard 10-target day from Aiyuk who continues to gain good separation from defenders while seeing limited results. If Samuel truly is a decoy or is limited but drawing attention away from Aiyuk, we love the pivot toward Aiyuk for DFS lineups. Kittle is confirmed active, the tight end missed Week 3 but had a strong Week 2 with seven catches for 78 yards and a touchdown on eight targets. Kittle has significant scoring potential and he is capable of putting together a volume-based day as the team marches up and down the field. Samuel can catch the ball in the passing attack and run it for huge gains just as well, he had 110 yards on eight catches in Week 2 and put up 77 yards on 13 touches overall in Week 1, scoring in the passing game. Samuel is playable but could be tricky coming off the injury in this game. Jennings is playable as a secondary option in the same light as Aiyuk but his action will be potentially more limited by the return of the two better options in the passing attack. Still, a few looks at low ownership could yield big results for a player who has been a capable contributor. On the ground the team features emergent Jordan Mason who has been excellent with 4.8 yards per rush attempt and 108 yards per game on 22.3 carries per game over three outings as the featured back. Mason is filling in for Christian McCaffrey who the Germans say will be out until Week 12 or 13. The explosive running back had excellent per-touch numbers prior to stepping into this job, he has exceeded expectations across the board for both volume and output, though he did dip slightly to 77 yards on 19 carries while failing to score for the first time last week alongside the massive game by Jennings. Mason remains a go-to option but if Samuel is healthy he will poach both carries and potential touchdowns in a situation to monitor going forward. Mason is excellent at the position and he ranks as RB6/2 and RB5/4 but the volume is a bit murky across the board in this one. Depth option Isaac Guerendo has seen only limited opportunities and should yield most backup rushing touches to Samuel. Kyle Juszczyk is one of the last true fullbacks in football, he has been targeted three times per game for 7.2 yards per target but has failed to score early in the season, he is a cheap low-volume dart throw at the absolute best. The 49ers are Stack6/12 and 5/17 by the numbers, their value is more properly reflected by the points-per-dollar numbers in game they can win at 50% effort.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Game Total: 42.0 / TB +1.0 (20.5 imp.)
Plays: 42.07% rush / 57.93% pass / 21.3 ppg
oppDEF: 5.2 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 21.0 ppg / 4.30% sack
Key Player: Baker Mayfield
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Bucky Irving (Q), Rachaad White (Q), Jalen McMillan (D), Cade Ottom, Trey Palmer (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert, Jahan Dotson, Parris Campbell, Johnny Wilson
Lineup Notes: Despite a limiting impact on the New Orleans passing attack last week, the Eagles’ pass defense remains one that we are looking to target in 2024. Philadelphia has allowed 6.9 yards per pass attempt this season, ranking 20th, and they have given up 5.2 yards per rush attempt to sit 30th in the 32-team league. This is not a championship-level defense. The Eagles have allowed just 21.0 points per game, a mark that sits 17th in the league, while yielding 1.7 passing touchdowns per game over three weeks. Quarterback Baker Mayfield exploited a similarly gettable NFC East defense in a Week 1 annihilation of the Commanders that saw him throw for 289 yards and four touchdowns on 24-30 passing. Mayfield followed that outing with a limited 12-19 performance for 185 yards with a touchdown and an interception the following week then had a 25-33 game with 163 yards one touchdown and one interception last week. The quarterback has enviable weapons in veteran receiving stars Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, an extremely sound 1/1A pairing that is among the best in the game. Both receivers are good downfield operators but Godwin has been better early in the year, despite Evans’ two Week 1 touchdowns. Godwin has outdrawn his counterpart with 8.3 targets and 7.0 receptions per game to Evans’ 3.3 receptions on 5.0 targets per game. Evans has a 9.1-yard ADOT with 34.25% of the air yards while Godwin has a 6.7-yard ADOT and 42% of the air yards. Godwin leads the touchdown race 3-2 but both receivers were in winning Mayfield+2 lineups in Week 1 and they are easy to stack together again as WR7/9 and 6/11 (Godwin) and WR11/26 on both sites (Evans). Cade Otton provides limited action with touchdown-dependent upside on most slates, he is TE 12/9 and 17/16 across sites and is playable mostly in stacks of Tampa Bay pass-catchers. The team’s backfield situation is murky, rookie Bucky Irving is on the cusp of stealing this job from Rachaad White who is deceptively volume-based and limited in the rushing game. White’s numbers were padded in Week 1 with six catches for 75 yards but he was exposed on limited passing volume in Week 2 and put up just 18 yards on 10 carries and five yards on one catch. In Week 3, White carried the ball just six times and drew six targets, catching five of them for just 18 yards. White played 41 snaps to Irving’s 18 last week, but Irving carried the ball more, he had 70 yards on nine carries and added three catches for another 14 yards in a strong and efficient outing. Irving is dealing with a hamstring issue but he practiced on a limited basis but is expected to play. White is also now questionable with an illness that popped up on Saturday, adding to the potential for a breakout day for Irving if he suits up. With Jalen McMillan doubtul we could see more of Trey Palmer as a depth option this week. Palmer has just one catch on three targets this season. Tampa Bay ranks as Stack 10/19 on DraftKings, they are limited on the site for points-per-dollar value but demonstrate clear scoring potential. On FanDuel, the stack lands as Stack14/19 in a more limited situation with slightly diminished pass-game value site-to-site.
Washington Commanders
Game Total: 49.0 / WAS +3.5 (22.75 imp.)
Plays: 53.30% rush / 46.70% pass / 26.3 ppg
oppDEF: 3.9 ypa rush / 8.2 ypa pass / 21.3 ppg / 10.98% sack
Key Player: Jayden Daniels
Setting: at most two (this allows for “naked” Jayden Daniels lineups)
Team Group: Terry McLaurin, Noah Brown, Zach Ertz, Brian Robinson Jr. (on/off), Luke McCaffrey, Dyami Brown (large field), Jeremy McNichols (large field; on/off), Olamide Zaccheaus (very large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Marvin Harrison Jr., James Conner, Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, Elijah Higgins
Lineup Notes: The Commanders offense, and the command with which it has been helmed by rookie Jayden Daniels, has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy gamers early in the 2024 NFL season. Washington has averaged 26.3 points per game on offense, making them the fifth-highest-scoring team in football to start the campaign. The team has allowed plenty of points with an inept defense, of course, so they are inspired to keep pace with opponents, but that creates excellent DFS scoring potential in high-end game environments. This week’s game began the week above a 50-point game score but has dipped to 49.0, it is still the highest scoring potential game on the slate. Arizona and Washington has a strong possibility to shoot out with good weapons on both sides, this is a high-priority game across the board in Week 4. Daniels ranks as QB2/1 on DraftKings and QB4/3 on FanDuel, he is a good option in stacks and he has the rushing potential to payoff “naked” lineup shares as well. The rookie has thrown for 8.7 yards per pass attempt while completing an astounding 80.0 of his 25.33 passes per game for 221.33 yards per game on 5.9 intended air yards per attempt for the season. Daniels has two passing touchdowns and has added 12.7 carries per game for 57.0 yards, a 4.5 yards per attempt average on the ground, with three rushing touchdowns in three games. Daniels’ upside is supported by standout receiver Terry McLaurin, who rates as a good option at the position as WR12/4 and WR12/6 across sites. McLaurin has a significant 14.4-yard average depth of target with a gargantuan 56.55% of the team’s air yards and a single touchdown over three games. His 6.0 targets per game easily lead a shallow receiving corps. Running back Brian Robinson Jr. has drawn 2.7 targets per game as a limited option in short passing situations but his 7.0 yards per target may carry enough upside to play in stacks as well as in standalone shares. Robinson has gained 4.6 yards per attempt on 15 carries per game and has two rushing touchdowns this season, against a limited Washington defense he has major scoring upside and could easily stand on his own outside of stacks of Commanders. Noah Brown provides receiving depth with the ability to get open down the field, he has three catches in each of the past two games, hauling in all six of his targets over his two outings for 56 and 29 yards respectively but he has failed to score. Brown is joined by veteran tight end Zach Ertz who has touchdown-dependent potential but has yet to score in 2024. Ertz has seen 4.3 targets per game on an 8.6-yard ADOT for a fair 24.45% of the air yards as the second-leading option behind McLaurin. Rookie Luke McCaffrey has been limited to just 5.46% of the air yards and 2.0 targets per game, he has six catches for 62 yards combined over three weeks and is a limited dart throw at best. With Daniels rating as an excellent option and strong marks across the board for Robinson, McLaurin, and Ertz (to a degree), the Commanders rate as Stack 13 by points but Stack 2 by value on DraftKings and Stack 12/4 on FanDuel.
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