This article focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within the industry’s optimization tools. All of the concepts and pairings included below can also apply to hand-building. The goal is to create lineups with strong correlations among likely point-scorers to maximize the gains from infrequent scoring events within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.
This video was made in a former life and features a detailed demonstration of how to apply these concepts in one leading optimizer tool: Fantasy Cruncher – How-To Video
All references to Sims were done via friends of the site: acemind.io
Don’t miss the Above/Below feature article for a few of our top picks, coming Sunday morning
Game notes are updated during the week and initially posted as “work in progress” as they take a long time to create, if teams are missing notes simply check back later in the day/week and they should be updated.
2024 Week 13 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stack Rankings
The following stack rankings were created by pairing each team quarterback with his top three scoring options, whether they are three wide receivers, two wide receivers and a tight end, a wide receiver, tight end, and running back, or any viable combination. In some cases, an expensive running back can push the overall price point of his team stack in the value rankings.
| TEAM | OPP | FD$ | FDpRank | FDvalRank | DK$ | DkpRank | DKvalRank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | JAC | $33,000 | 1 | 1 | $28,200 | 1 | 4 |
| CIN | PIT | $32,500 | 2 | 2 | $28,400 | 2 | 6 |
| LAR | NO | $33,500 | 3 | 9 | $28,000 | 3 | 8 |
| PHI | BAL | $34,700 | 4 | 16 | $30,300 | 4 | 19 |
| TB | CAR | $30,500 | 5 | 4 | $24,400 | 6 | 5 |
| NYJ | SEA | $30,700 | 6 | 8 | $26,700 | 5 | 9 |
| BAL | PHI | $30,300 | 7 | 6 | $25,900 | 8 | 11 |
| MIN | ARI | $30,300 | 8 | 12 | $24,900 | 7 | 7 |
| BUF | SF | $29,100 | 9 | 5 | $0 | 0 | 0 |
| ATL | LAC | $29,200 | 10 | 10 | $25,400 | 9 | 10 |
| SEA | NYJ | $31,100 | 11 | 19 | $25,200 | 10 | 17 |
| NO | LAR | $28,600 | 12 | 13 | $20,900 | 13 | 1 |
| PIT | CIN | $27,600 | 13 | 7 | $24,000 | 12 | 16 |
| WAS | TEN | $29,200 | 14 | 18 | $24,200 | 14 | 18 |
| SF | BUF | $30,800 | 15 | 22 | $0 | 0 | 0 |
| IND | NE | $27,300 | 16 | 11 | $21,500 | 11 | 2 |
| LAC | ATL | $25,300 | 17 | 3 | $20,000 | 16 | 3 |
| ARI | MIN | $29,100 | 18 | 21 | $24,500 | 15 | 20 |
| TEN | WAS | $26,400 | 19 | 17 | $21,300 | 18 | 13 |
| CAR | TB | $25,600 | 20 | 15 | $21,300 | 19 | 14 |
| JAC | HOU | $26,200 | 21 | 20 | $21,400 | 17 | 12 |
| NE | IND | $23,900 | 22 | 14 | $20,400 | 20 | 15 |
Week 13 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stacks & Optimizer Groups
Overview
Rules and limits are powerful tools for lineup creation for NFL DFS where our primary focus is creating highly correlated lineups via stacking players from the same game. Lineups will typically be coordinated around the quarterback selection, which informs at least one pass-catcher choice, establishes a budget, eliminates a defense, and sets the tone for the lineup. We will typically look to correlate a quarterback and at least one of his pass-catchers in every lineup, with many of those including a skill player from the opposing team. This player is included to support the stack in a high-scoring game that drives offense on both sides, creating additional correlated scoring potential. Stacking multiple pass-catchers in the same lineup is a sound approach, though there are typically overall ceilings on how much volume is available at any given position. While pass-catching running backs can be prioritized in stacks and group tools, including running backs who are not involved in the passing game is less important at this stage, they will fall naturally into shares as needed. High-volume backs and pass catchers out of the backfield can be included in the groups utilized below, but it is frequently not necessary to do so with the very best players, they arrive in lineups without help.
Rules and limits are typically applied in an optimizer’s Advanced Options menu. Notes are included to illustrate the reasons behind each rule and explain what it does during the lineup creation process. These settings can typically be saved for re-use, which is highly recommended. Saving the groups created below is also a good idea that will save time with updates instead of recreation each week. These groups are created manually, but most optimizers include automated group creators that can help accelerate the curation process.
DraftKings + FanDuel Settings & Advanced Options
Note – Terminology may vary from site to site but these are common functions across most industry tools.
Unique Players Per Lineup– This setting forces the optimizer to utilize at least X new players who were not in Lineup 1 when it creates Lineup 2, and so on. We recommend a setting of at least two unique players, more can be applied depending on the degree of differentiation desired within lineups.
Team Salary– a minimum or maximum salary spend can be applied here as needed, although leaving salary on the table is an easy path toward creating unique lineups while not necessarily making a negative expected value play.
FLEX position– allows restrictions on what positions can be rostered at the FLEX spot. The primary position to restrict is the tight end so that lineups do not include two players from the position. In many industry tools this is a separate option via a checkbox, it can also be handled specifically within groups.
Global Exposure Setting – allows caps on the maximum percentage of lineups a player can appear in within a given pool of lineup construction. This is a powerful tool for shaping lineups but if settings are too low, attempts to build a full set will fall short due to a lack of available players, one of the most common errors in optimizer building. Most optimizers include the ability to calculate ownership caps continuously or at the end of the pool creation process. If caps are calculated continuously, a player with a 25% cap who is utilized in Lineup 1 will not be available for use again until Lineup 5, we recommend turning OFF continuous calculation.
Randomness – provides a random multiplier to each player’s projected point total based on the set values. This valuable tool helps differentiate lineups instead of simply creating them in order of the highest median projected scores. Using some randomness for lineup generation is strongly recommended but the degree to which it is applied is down to personal preference, 15-25% is fine to get started. We suggest heavier randomness to more event-based players like wide receivers while tracking volume-based positions like running backs more toward their median or ceiling projections.
DraftKings + FanDuel Team Stack Rules
This set of rules will force optimizers to build lineups with certain combinations. We are looking to stack at least one skill player, almost always a pass-catcher, with his quarterback while frequently playing a skill player from the opposing team in the lineup. The theory behind this build is that a high-scoring stack will require some response from the opposing team to deliver a ceiling score in most situations. Most optimizers utilize a “complete the sentence” approach for rule creation with selections from drop-down menus following a very straightforward logic. Exceptions to these rules can be added for specific teams and players on most optimizer products.
- QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It is fine to set this to two or to utilize two versions of this rule, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can also refine this via Groups)
- optional – QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from the Opposing Team (we typically prefer the pass-catchers but high-volume running backs can be effective here)
- QB with at most zero DST from the Same Team (this is a personal preference; high-scoring teams and quarterbacks tend to leave their defenses on the field, exposing them to simple point-scoring negatives)
Limits & Custom Rules and Requirements
Limit rules can be applied to restrict certain combinations from coming together. This is powerful for limiting multiple running backs from the same team or getting overweight to a certain stack within a lineup.
- Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
- Limit RB/WR/TE from the Same Team to one unless paired with QB from the Same Team OR the Opposing Team (this prevents multiple players from a team that is not a primary quarterback-based stack)
- optional – Limit RB from Same Team to one (we can also do this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s a personal preference for NFL DFS, we typically do not want two pass-catchers from the same team without their quarterback)
We will maintain the list of rules and limits throughout the season, with occasional tweaks. Each week sees another fresh crop of value plays as situations change and injuries create opportunities around the league. These changing roles and emergent value plays are accounted for in creating these groups from week to week. After a large pool of lineups is created utilizing these groups, it is still critical to filter them for factors including ceiling projections and leverage potential. These groups should help ensure that a highly correlated premium set of options that rotates through various combinations is utilized to create the full lineup pool.
Sunday Updates
Any changes and recommended boosts to specific players will be provided in an early morning update each Sunday.
NFL DFS Week 13 Features & FREE Projections
- Week 13 FanDuel & DraftKings Projections
- Week 13 Above/Below – Key Picks
- Week 13 Quarterback Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 13 Running Back Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 13 Pass-Catcher Scoring & Value Rankings
- Week 13 Defense Scoring & Value Rankings
Construction Concept
Team groups are built by utilizing the quarterback as the KEY player in group settings. The quarterback decision is the driving factor in determining which stack the lineup utilizes and which corresponding plays are made to work within the structured requirements. In Fantasy Cruncher, built to specification, each team will have two groups, a team group, and an opponent group, both of which utilize the same quarterback as the key player. Each game will have a total of four groups. This is the best approach to truly capture the requirement of playing individual “run-back” plays from the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to include all of the skill players from a game in each quarterback’s group and rely on rules and limits to restrict any potential overflow. It is highly recommended to save the early season groups as a foundation that will be updated for the rest of the season. The recommended groups will include skill players who have an active role in their offense and provide significant correlation with their quarterback’s scoring, often bell-cow running backs who do not specialize in the passing game will not be included in groups as they are projected highly and appear on their own in basically correct distributions, while also not always providing the strongest positive correlation plays. Stacking quarterbacks with pass-catchers and allowing running backs to fall into the lanes created by settings, available salary, and randomness should create a well-distributed set of quality lineups. These groups are updated weekly to account for changes in utilization, schemes, injuries, target shares, and more.
Team Groups for DraftKings & FanDuel – Week 13
The goal is to create a large pool of well-built lineups that can be utilized in any large-field GPP contest. Our approach is to build far more lineups than needed and utilize a sorting table or sim process to filter to the best set of entries. The lineups created in these crunches should provide a broad distribution that includes some of the lower-owned high-upside skill players from each stack. Applying boosts is critical in pushing and pulling ownership to individual players within their team’s stacked lineups if they appear too much or too little.
The groups below are designed so that each quarterback will have two groups to create, one with his skill players and another with the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to add them all to one large group with an “at least three” and let rules and limits set things, but there is a more granular level of control in creating them separately.
Utilizing two groups also allows us to place running backs into the “run-back” position in certain teams while not including them in the primary stack for their team. This is useful when a situation has an extremely highly projected running back that does not necessarily fit into his team’s passing game. These players are threaded throughout the following construction recommendations.
Note for all optimizers the rules can be utilized to force bring-back plays in some sets of crunches and turned off for others as a global function instead of changing each group to “exactly one” bring-back play, wherever applicable, but it will apply to all teams.
Arizona Cardinals
Game Total: 44.5 / ARI +3.5 (20.5 imp.)
Plays: 47.31% rush / 52.69% pass / 22.2 ppg / 5.2 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.6 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 17.9 ppg / 8.35% sack / 3.84% int
Key Player: Kyler Murray
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: James Conner, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, Trey Benson (on/off), Elijah Higgins (large field), Zay Jones (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, Jalen Nailor, Brandon Powell (large field), Cam Akers (on/off)
Game Notes: Led by quarterback Kyler Murray, the Cardinals check into Sunday as 3.5-point underdogs on the road against a good Vikings defense. Minnesota ranks among the top teams in limiting opposing rush yardage at 3.6 yards allowed per attempt and they limit pass yardage and scoring efficiently as well, yielding just 7.0 yards per pass attempt and 17.9 points per game. Minnesota is an aggressive scoring defense with an 8.35% sack rate and a 3.84% interception rate on the season, the latter of which ranks second in the league. Murray averages 7.5 yards per pass attempt over 28.45 attempts per game, not ideal volume for stacking despite a slight lean toward the pass in the offensive scheme. The quarterback has 12 touchdown passes against only four interceptions on the season, the turnover total is strong but the touchdown mark is underwhelming, Murray adds a bit of padding with four rushing touchdowns on 7.9 yards per attempt over 4.4 attempts per game. Murray is QB11 by points but slips to QB17 by value on DraftKings, he is QB12 by points and QB18 by value on the blue site this week. James Conner is a rock solid veteran running back with any-given-slate upside for scoring, he gains 4.2 yards per rush attempt over 15.1 carries while adding 8.2 yards per target on 3.2 targets per game in the passing attack. The combined opportunities get Conner close enough to our threshold of 20 potential touches that he is appealing for the salary alongside running backs with similar volume. Unfortunately, Conner is in for a challenge against a strong Minnesota front, in addition to their ability to limit rush yardage, the Vikings rank first in the league, allowing just 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game. The running back lands as just RB18/21 on DraftKings and RB20/23 on the FanDuel slate, he is a mixer at best from a scoring perspective but he is priced for his typical expectations, making him an awkward fit in Week 13. Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride are the two big targets in the passing game. The heavily hyped Harrison was the first receiver taken in the 2024 Draft, he has provided his team with 3.3 receptions per game on 6.0 targets and 8.3 yards per target on a 13.8-yard average depth. Harrison Jr. is building a steady connection with Murray, the duo have connected for six touchdowns and Harrison Jr. sees 39.51% of the team’s air yards. McBride slots in with a team-leading 8.0 targets per game, hauling in 6.1 of them for 8.6 yards per target. The tight end works at the middle levels, operating with a positionally solid 7.2-yard ADOT and 25.29% of the team’s air yards over volume. McBride has been in the end zone just three times but he remains a weekly option from the top shelf at the position, he is TE2 by points and TE10 by value on DraftKings while landing as TE2 by points and TE6 by value on FanDuel. Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch are dart throw options, though Wilson’s 4.4 targets per game are more desirable than the 3.2 that Dortch has seen on average. The receivers can both see odd spikes of involvement but Wilson is the more appealing for DFS tournaments, given an 11.4-yard average depth of target and 23.68% of the team’s air yards despite the lower target share. Wilson has scored three times to Dortch’s lone touchdown. With just a 6.3-yard ADOT, Dortch is a receiver who needs volume or a broken play to provide much value. Wilson is a playable WR36/36 and WR41/38 while Dortch falls down the board to WR55/55 and WR66/64. The Cardinals defense ranks as D5 by value but they are a limited play that is more inexpensive than high quality. Additional options including Elijah Higgins, Emari Demercado, Zay Jones, and Zach Pascal are limited volume dart throws among whom Demercado’s 3.2 potential touches per game is group-leading.
The Cardinals are Stack 15 by points and Stack 20 by value on DraftKings and they land as Stack 18 by points and Stack 21 by value on FanDuel. With a quality operation on the other side of this game, Arizona does provide several functional bring-back players for Vikings-based builds and they are a somewhat viable source of standalone players
Update: Pregame reporting has coach-speak saying that this will be a day where the passing game will run through Marvin Harrison Jr. in an effort to “get him going”
Atlanta Falcons
Game Total: 48.0 / ATL +1.0 (23.5 imp.)
Plays: 42.65% rush / 57.35% pass / 22.2 ppg / 4.5 ypa rush / 7.8 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.8 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass / 15.9 ppg / 8.82% sack / 2.49% int
Key Player: Kirk Cousins
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts, Tyler Allgeier (on/off), Ray-Ray McCloud III
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Ladd McConkey, Gus Edwards, Quentin Johnston, Joshua Palmer, Kimani Vidal
Game Notes: The always-playable Falcons land in an appealing game on the board in Vegas but also in what could be a bit of a trap situation. Atlanta is just a 1.0-point underdog in a game with a 48.0-point total at home in Week 13 but they are squaring off against a defense that has been successful checking opponent’s scoring with just 15.9 points allowed per game. The Chargers benefitted from facing several weaker teams early in the season but their defense has largely held up over time, allowing more scoring via PPR formats than anything despite back-to-back high scoring affairs against the Bengals and Ravens over the past two contests. The Falcons do not quite measure up to those prolific offenses, but they could press Los Angeles as well, this is an intriguing game with highly-ranked skill players who can provide individual value in standalone situations or as a stack, there is also value-based potential on the Chargers side for stack-and-bring-back play in both directions. Atlanta is ably helmed by veteran Kirk Cousins who does not look appealing as QB20/20 on DraftKings and QB22/17 on FanDuel. Cousins has gained a solid 7.8 yards per pass attempt while throwing 17 touchdowns against nine interceptions this season, he is capable of breaking off gigantic scoring performances as well. Cousins has thrown four touchdowns in a game twice this season, he threw for a massive 509 yards in one of those performances and 276 in the other. The veteran has been over the 300-yard mark twice this season but has slipped with no touchdowns in the team’s two most recent games. Cousins completed just 18 of 27 passes for 173 yards and threw an interception against a pesky Denver defense last week, he could be in for more of the same against the Chargers but we are unlikely to be in danger of seeing another Michael Penix relief stint. Running back Bijan Robinson is RB4/3 on DraftKings and RB5/6 on FanDuel, he is an interesting piece on either site and functions best as a standalone option with the team’s stack value hampering him in combinations. Robinson gains a strong 4.7 yards per rush attempt and 7.2 yards per target and he approaches our desired mark with 15.2 carries and 4.5 targets per game giving him 19.7 potential touches each week. Robinson is a talented rusher who gains 2.2 yards after contact per attempt this season and has run the ball in for six scores with a single receiving touchdown on the board as well. As WR13 by points and WR11 by value on DraftKings and WR14/15 on FanDuel, Drake London also has individual value in lineups that do not feature Cousins at quarterback, he is also the primary option when stacking Falcons. London leads the team with 8.2 targets per game on the season, he catches 5.5 of those opportunities each week, stacking up 7.9 yards per target on his 10.4-yard average depth. London has six receiving touchdowns to squeak out the lead over fellow receiver Darnell Mooney who has turned in a solid campaign with five touchdowns of his own. Mooney operates on a 12.3-yard average depth of target and sees 7.4 opportunities per game, pushing him to a team-leading 37.05% air yards share that outdoes the 33.36% going in London’s direction. There are few higher-volume 1-2 punches for air yards and reliability of targeting with scoring potential in football. Tight end Kyle Pitts gets into the mix as well, he has three touchdowns on the board and pulls in just 15.89% of the team’s air yards, but that puts 86.30% of the air yards share into the hands of these three primary options. Atlanta is one of the more straight-forward stacks when it comes to the passing game, with added shares going to Ray-Ray McCloud III who sees just a 6.8-yard average depth of target and looks for explosive play potential after the catch. McCloud has one touchdown on the board with 5.0 targets per game on the season. Everyone else in the passing game is incidental at best on a weekly basis. In addition to Robinson’s productivity, running back Tyler Allgeier tends to get involved just when one least suspects. Allgeier slipped to his lowest volume of the season in Week 11, playing just three snaps and catching his lone target over two routes run, he did not carry the ball for the first time all season. Before Week 11, Allgeier’s low point for carries this year was three in Week 1 then 5 in Week 7, he peaked with 18 carries for 105 yards and a score in Week 6 and has 11 carries as recently as Week 10. The running back has two rushing touchdowns on the season and remains an effective secondary option who can pick up oddball volume any given week. Prior to the Week 11 shutout, Allgeier saw six carries in the red zone over three games, including three straight failed goal line attempts in Week 10. The running back is just a mixer as RB25/25 and RB27/27 across DraftKings and FanDuel but he could easily play spoiler to other Falcons’ value.
Atlanta is Stack 9 by points and Stack 10 by value on DraftKings and Stack 10/10 on the FanDuel slate in Week 13, Robinson, London, and Mooney are probably better as individuals
Baltimore Ravens
Game Total: 51.0 / BAL -2.5 (26.75 imp.)
Plays: 51.02% rush / 48.98% pass / 30.3 ppg / 5.8 ypa rush / 8.9 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 6.1 ypa pass / 18.1 ppg / 8.55% sack / 1.98% int
Key Player: Lamar Jackson
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, Justice Hill, Diontae Johnson, Isaiah Likely, Nelson Agholor, Tylan Wallace (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith (Q; limited), Dallas Goedert, Jahan Dotson, Kenneth Gainwell (on/off)
Game Notes: The Ravens rank second in football with 30.3 points and 3.8 touchdowns per game in 2024. The team gains a league-leading 5.8 yards per rush attempt and 8.9 yards per pass attempt and can seem nearly unstoppable at times. Between MVP candidate Lamar Jackson and running back superstar Derrick Henry, the Ravens have a brutal rushing game that can punish opposing defenses for big gains. Jackson has been exceptional in the passing game as well, throwing 27 touchdowns against only three interceptions while tossing 28.58 pass attempts per game. Despite the lower-end volume this is easily a go-to pass offense anytime they are on a slate, there is major scoring potential and elite efficiency at play, and the Ravens are matched up with a team that will press scoring in a 51.0-point contest with a 2.5-point spread favoring hometown Baltimore. Jackson ranks as QB1 by points but slips to QB18 by value for a huge $8,000 price on DraftKings. His $8,700 is functionally different on FanDuel where he is QB1 by points and QB4 by value and is a highly playable pay-up option. Henry is RB7 by points but 18 by value on DraftKings for $7,800, at $9,000 he is RB6 by points but RB15 by value on FanDuel, his raw scoring potential remains elite but his salary is a difficult reach. Henry gains a terrific 6.0 yards per rush attempt on 18.4 carries per game, his 110.4 yards per contest are second only to Saquon Barkley’s outstanding work on the other side of this game. Henry has 13 rushing touchdowns and a pair of receiving touchdowns this season, he is the league’s leading scorer among skill players. Outside of the difficult price tag, Henry is always in play for shares and he is unlikely to be popular in this matchup but his cost demands sacrifice that could be highly detrimental at other positions this week. Jackson will be challenged for success with an Eagles secondary that has been excellent this year, a sharp turnaround from a targetable defense last season. Philadelphia has allowed just 6.1 yards per pass attempt, the lowest mark in football this season. Their defense has been sound against the run as well, but their 4.3 yards per rush attempt ranks just 11th, they are better at limiting rushing touchdowns with only 0.7 allowed per game. The Eagles are allowing just 175.5 passing yards and 1.2 passing touchdowns per game this season, they are a high-end defense and this game could quickly swing to unexpectedly low returns if that aspect of Philadelphia collides with Baltimore’s league-leading ability to stop the run. If this game goes under it will bend the slate dramatically. Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman remain the top two options at wide receiver for Jackson, he has found Flowers for four touchdowns and Bateman for five, on a solid 13.4-yard average depth of target that yields big play output no less. Flowers sees a solid 8.9-yard average depth of target and draws 7.3 targets per game to pull ahead with 24.31% of the air yards but volume is not the same as depth when it comes to big play potential in that statistic. Flowers is WR12 by points but WR5 by value as an excellent DraftKings option, he is similarly playable as WR12/8 on the FanDuel slate. Bateman is a bit more of a reach as WR34/34 and WR38/34 but he has explosive potential to rocket up the board at lower ownership than his counterpart, making him a good option to offset combinations of Ravens and Eagles to some degree. Mark Andrews has six receiving touchdowns on the season and fellow tight end Isaiah Likely has another three, this team targets the position in the end zone with regularity. Andrews seemed to be slipping before roaring to life in Week 6, he scored his first touchdown of the season in that game and now has scored in five of the team’s last seven contests. Likely picked up four catches on five targets for 75 yards in Week 11 but has been far more limited in games on either side of that contest with Andrews reemerging in the lead role. Andrews is TE11/13 and TE14/14 with a bit of additional ceiling coming from touchdown probability. Likely is more of a dart throw with low probability of seeing enough volume to support success. Justice Hill draws 3.3 targets per contest in the passing game and has explosive big play ability, he has two receiving touchdowns and a rushing touchdown despite limited involvement this season. Hill carried the ball four times for 55 yards and scored a touchdown last week, adding two catches but gaining just seven yards on them. He had four catches for 28 yards on seven targets the week before and is always an interesting low-cost low-0wnership mixer for large-volume large-field tournament play. Diontae Johnson was acquired several weeks ago but has yet to be significantly involved in the passing game. Johnson has seen just five targets on 14 routes run over the last three games combined, he is a limited dart throw until he comes out of hiding. Nelson Agholor sees 2.2 targets per game on an 11.9-yard average depth of target, he is a very loose dart throw who has scored twice this season, his cost is low but his probability of return on investment is as well.
The Ravens are Stack 8 by points and Stack 11 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 7 by points and Stack 6 by value on the FanDuel slate in Week 13 but they have fantastic raw scoring potential as do their opponents. This game is a good source of pay-up scoring, drawing two opposing skill players is an interesting approach in lineups that are not stacking one offense or the other
Buffalo Bills
Game Total: 44.5 / BUF -6.5 (25.5 imp.)
Plays: 46.37% rush / 53.53% pass / 29.1 ppg / 4.3 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.2 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass / 23.6 ppg / 7.53% sack / 3.20% int
Key Player:
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper, Dawson Knox, Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, Jordan Mason (on/off)
Game Notes: Sunday’s final matchup comes in the FanDuel only (and DraftKings Showdown) position as the slate’s nightcap. The contest between the Bills and 49ers could hardly be a better matchup from an NFL sense, the Bills are heavy 6.5-point favorites in a home game against one of the league’s top opponents in a game carrying a 44.5-point total with opposing quarterback Brock Purdy expected to play. Buffalo’s hyper-efficient offense is always in play with Josh Allen and a combination of quality skill players at a decent mix of prices. Allen slots in as QB3 by points and QB9 by value on the FanDuel slate, he is excellent for raw scoring potential as one of the top overall scoring options across the full slate. Allen has 18 touchdowns against five interceptions for the season with 7.5 yards per pass attempt and an additional five touchdowns coming on runs. Allen will be without primary tight end Dalton Kincaid but the team has Khalil Shakir and Amari Cooper both in play today with Dawson Knox stepping up at tight end and Curtis Samuel operating out of the slot. Samuel draws just a 6.3-yard average depth of target that limits his big play potential, he is more of a possession receiver, as is Shakir, who creates plays despite just a 3.6-yard average depth of target. Cooper, by contrast, works down the field on a 12.3-yard average depth of target (combined) for a 27.94% overall air yards share across the two offenses of which he has been a part this season. Cooper missed two games since joining the team, he came back to catch two passes for 55 yards on three targets over 24 routes run on 35 snaps in Week 11 before the team’s bye and should be even closer to full strength after another week of rest. Cooper is WR25/20 on the blue site this week. Shakir simply catches most things thrown in his direction, he has at least six catches in each of six straight games but has not scored since Week 3 against Jacksonville. The receiver does not work far down the field, instead accruing points through receptions, yardage, and reliable hands. He is a better weekly PPR option than anything else but he ranks cleanly as WR13 by points and WR1 by value at just $6,200 on FanDuel this week. Shakir is a strong consideration for shares from the late night game, even when not stacking Allen it makes sense to have a piece of scoring potential from this game. Cooper and Shakir are separated by just $100 in salary, making them a dynamic mix-and-match pairing for +1 builds, they can be played together in +2 setups. Knox is another reasonable mixer, the second-string tight end was more involved last season overall but has a touchdown on the board this year with 2.0 targets per game coming his way overall. Knox caught two passes for 40 yards in Week 10 and four passes for 40 yards in Week 11 with Kincaid out, he should see similar potential and could find his way into the end zone for the second time on the season if targeting happens to find him in the red zone. The tight end has three red zone targets this season despite limited overall action. James Cook is a mix-in running back play as just RB15/22 on the FanDuel slate. Cook has 10 rushing touchdowns to his credit this season and adds another score in the passing game, his productivity should not be entirely ignored on this slate despite the middling rankings for a high price. Cook is a differentiator and it could pay to consider him as a pay-up to be contrarian option when not including pieces of the Buffalo passing game in a lineup. Cook sees 3.1 targets for direct correlation in the passing game as well, he can be included in stacks alongside Allen and a receiver but most likely works best as a standalone player. Mack Hollins is a low-volume option for deep strikes on a 13.4-yard average depth of target. Hollins has three touchdowns over his 13.89% air yards share, he is just WR60/63 this week but is capable of spiking a cheap ceiling game on big play ability. Remaining Bills are no more than backup-level dart throw options.
Buffalo is Stack 9 by points and Stack 5 by value on FanDuel this week
Carolina Panthers
Game Total: 46.5 / CAR +5.5 (20.5 imp.)
Plays: 41.27% rush / 58.73% pass / 17.6 ppg / 4.6 ypa rush / 5.9 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass / 24.8 ppg / 7.27% sack / 1.23% int
Key Player: Bryce Young
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Chuba Hubbard, Xavier Legette, Adam Thielen, David Moore, Tommy Tremble, Jonathon Brooks (on/off), Deven Thompkins
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Mike Evans, Bucky Irving, Rachaad White, Cade Otton, Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard, Sean Tucker, Rakim Jarrett (large field), Trey Palmer (large field)
Game Notes: Maligned Carolina quarterback Bryce Young had his second-straight showing without an interception in the team’s Week 12 game against Kansas City. In the surprising performance, Young completed 21 of 35 pass attempts for 263 yards and threw a touchdown pass. The second-year quarterback was less impressive in Week 10 before the bye, facing the Giants he managed just 126 yards with a touchdown but he was turnover-free while completing 15 of 25 attempts. Young threw for 224 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in Week 8 against Denver, marking his highpoint for scoring but also for turnovers on the year. Overall, the quarterback has not impressed, he averages just 5.8 yards per pass attempt on 3.8 air yards and 7.8 intended air yards per attempt and has thrown five touchdowns against six interceptions this season. Young gains little in the rushing game, where his 5.1 yards per attempt amount to little on just 2.3 attempts per game, though he did score once on the ground this season. Young is QB 17 by points on DraftKings but his bargain basement price of just $4,700 has him as an undeniable source of potential value at QB2 by points-per-dollar. Young costs the same as a low-end skill player on the DraftKings slate, he does not need to do much to make value when he is the fifth-most expensive player on his own team. Young lands at the same price as backup running back Jonathon Brooks, who has carried the ball precisely two times all season while failing to draw a target on two routes run in his only game. Brooks should see a bit of increased opportunity over the season’s final handful of games, he was injured for most of the year but carries a fair amount of draft capital as a second round pick. With Young at a backup running back price and inexpensive options for pairing in stacks it makes sense that the Panthers would show collective value on DraftKings but they are not even midway up the value board as a collective, limiting the appeal of the cheap quarterback. On FanDuel, Young is priced at $6,600, cheap for the position on the site but not as low as his DraftKings price. Young is QB19 by points and QB8 by value on FanDuel. Chuba Hubbard is easily the most appealing option from Carolina on most slates. Hubbard has been a solid source of value this season, he picks up 16.1 carries per game and gains 4.9 yards per rush attempt while also adding 3.6 targets per game and 3.2 yards per target. Hubbard has eight touchdowns this season, one of which came on reception. The running back checks in as RB12/16 and RB12/10 across DraftKings and FanDuel, his $7,400 price on the blue site offers some salary relief while maintaining top-1o quality at the position. The team’s pass-catchers are a less appealing overall group, particularly given the deficiencies in delivery that they deal with each week. Xavier Legette is WR27/24 and WR32/32 across sites, he has four touchdowns this season on a solid 11.5-yard average depth of target over 4.6 targets per game for 35.26% of the team’s air yards. Legette stepped up in the absence of since-returned Adam Thielen and after the departure of Diontae Johnson, though he failed to score in either of the two most recent games despite seven catches for 96 yards combined. Thielen returned after a seven-week absence to catch three of four targets over 29 routes, gaining 57 yards and drawing a red zone target. The receiver is a big target in the end zone, he caught a touchdown from Young early this year and was over 1,000 yards for the first time since 2018 just last season, there is still potential in the combination on the right week. Carolina is facing a Tampa Bay pass defense that has allowed 24.8 points and 2.8 touchdowns per game, with 1.9 passing touchdowns allowed per game and 7.4 yards allowed per pass attempt. The Buccaneers have managed just a 7.27% sack rate, sitting 17th in the league, and their 1.23% interception rate is just 27th overall. The non-threatening defense does not automatically mean success at low prices for Carolina players but it at least lends believability to the idea of another semi-successful game for Young that yields productivity for his pass-catchers. David Moore was good last week and should see ongoing involvement with Jalen Coker out. Moore caught six of 10 targets for 81 yards and a touchdown in Week 12 in by far his best performance of the season, the targets alone were twice his previous season high, it almost does not matter that he caught them for a productive day. Brooks is a limited option at best, he is an unlikely dart throw who is probably best left for others, but he does possess an explosive raw skillset. Tommy Tremble is a mix-and-match option as TE22/20 and TE24/23 across sites while Deven Thompkins and Jordan Matthews are even less likely dart throw plays. Thompkins averages 1.0 targets per game and Matthews has yet to see an opportunity this season. Tremble is the most involved in the group with 2.3 targets per game but he has zero touchdowns and gains just 5.5 yards per target. The Carolina defense is the least expensive on the FanDuel slate at just $3,000, which gives them inherent value in a punt approach to the position. Carolina ranks as D19 by points and D12 by value on DraftKings but they look more approachable as D21 by points but D8 by value on FanDuel.
Carolina is Stack 19 by points and Stack 14 by value on DraftKings and Stack 20 by points and Stack 15 by value on FanDuel in Week 13, they are simply a value mixer that does not fully land in most outcomes
Cincinnati Bengals
Game Total: 47.5 / CIN -2.5 (25.0 imp.)
Plays: 36.46% rush / 63.54% pass / 27.0 ppg / 4.0 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.0 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 16.9 ppg / 6.43% sack / 3.30% int
Key Player: Joe Burrow
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown, Mike Gesicki, Andrei Iosivas, Drew Sample (on/off), Tanner Hudson (on/off), Jermaine Burton (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: George Pickens, Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, Pat Freiermuth, Calvin Austin III, Mike Williams, Van Jefferson (large field)
Game Notes: The high-flying Bengals wield the league’s most aggressive passing attack while playing at one of the fastest paces in football. Cincinnati has scored 27.0 points per game on an offense that leans into its strength with 7.4 yards per pass attempt. Quarterback Joe Burrow has a special and well established connection with star receiver Ja’Marr Chase and 1A to Chase’s 1, Tee Higgins. When both receivers are on the field the Bengals passing attack is truly lethal, though either receiver is capable of big things in the other’s absence, as Chase reminded everyone with 264 yards and three touchdowns on 11-17 receiving in Week 10 before Higgins’ Week 11 return. Both receivers hit the board hard in Week 11, Higgins came back to catch nine passes on 13 targets, gaining 148 yards and scoring a touchdown while Chase caught seven of 13 targets for 75 yards and a pair of touchdowns, giving him five touchdown receptions in just the past two games with the team’s bye coming in Week 12. The Bengals should be primed for success coming off the break to face a Steelers team that has been good at limiting opposing offenses with just 7.0 yards allowed per pass and 4.0 yards allowed per rush while yielding merely 16.9 points per game for the season. Pittsburgh has a strong interception rate but a relatively weak ability to get to the quarterback, Burrow should have ample time to let his star receivers do their work getting open. The quarterback is throwing the ball 37.09 times per game and completing 67.0% of his pass attempts for 7.4 yards per attempt and 275.27 yards per game. Burrow matches Lamar Jackson’s output with 27 touchdowns against just four interceptions but falls well short of Jackson’s added output on the ground with one rushing touchdown to Jackson’s three and only 2.8 attempts per game to Jackson’s 8.6. The quarterback lands as an excellent option on both sites this week, Burrow is QB4/12 on DraftKings and QB5/3 on the FanDuel slate, he has top-end ability and could bend the slate with a big day in a game with a 47.5-point total in which his team is favored by 2.5 drawing a 25.0-point implied total. Chase is WR1 by points on both sites, he is WR6 by value on DraftKings and WR4 by value on FanDuel, making him one of the top options from the upper range of prices. Higgins lands at a softer price, for just $6,600/$7,600 he is WR11 by points and WR9 by value on DraftKings and WR11/11 on the FanDuel slate. The combination of both receivers with Burrow in full stacks is highly appealing on both sites, they are one of the top-ranked three-man groups across the entire slate for raw scoring potential. Pairing either receiver with tight end Mike Gesicki, running back Chase Brown, or other pass-catchers provides diminishing but still potentially bountiful returns in simulations of this slate. Gesicki has two touchdowns on 4.3 targets per game with 8.1 yards per target but he failed to catch either of his two targets in the team’s most recent game after posting a few solid outings in a row. The tight end can be pressed for touchdowns by both Drew Sample and Tanner Hudson, who have two combined touchdowns in the past three games, though neither scored last week with most of the action going through the two star wide receivers. Chase Brown is an interesting play at running back, he costs just $6,200/$7,300 and lands as RB10 by points but RB4 by value on DraftKings and sits at RB11/7 on the FanDuel slate. Brown carried the ball 22 times in Week 11, despite the heavy volume that went to the primary receivers and the team’s tendency to lean into passing and pace that is a tremendous carry total for such an inexpensive running back. Brown gained 86 yards but did not score in the rushing game, he added 57 yards on 5-7 receiving. The week before, the running back posted nine catches for 52 yards on 11 targets and added 42 yards on 13 carries with a rushing touchdown. He gained 120 yards on 27 carries in Week 9 against a weak Las Vegas defense, though the Week 9 and 10 performances both came in the absence of Higgins’ volume demands. Brown has been mostly effective this season with 4.3 yards per rush attempt over 12.7 carries per game, he has five rushing touchdowns and another two as a receiver, drawing a sturdy 4.0 targets per game as an involved pass-catcher. Brown’s direct and indirect correlation in the excellent high-scoring offense make him playable in stacks with the team’s leading receivers and Burrow or as a cheap standalone value. Taking shots with Brown stacked with the quarterback and one of the lower-end pass catchers is less advisable but still viable. Andrei Iosivas is down to just 3.5 targets per game but he does have four touchdowns in the books this season. Iosivas sees most of his upside in games that lack one of the team’s top receivers but he did catch three of three targets last week for 46 yards in his most productive day in those departments since Week 6. Iosivas had a cheap 10-yard touchdown on his only catch in Week 9 as well. Overall, the receiver is no more than a mix-in to help average-down the cost of stacking multiple high-end Bengals players or as a dart throw to differentiate combinations. Jermaine Burton and Trenton Irwin are limited to afterthought status with everyone healthy. Burton caught one pass in each of the last two games and Irwin has not caught a pass since Week 8.
The Bengals are Stack 2 by points and Stack 6 by value on DraftKings, they have even more potential as Stack 2 by points and Stack 2 by value on FanDuel in Week 13
Houston Texans
Game Total: 43.5 / HOU -3.5 (23.5 imp.)
Plays: 41.96% rush / 58.04% pass / 23.8 ppg / 4.2 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 8.5 ypa pass / 28.7 ppg / 5.30% sack / 1.33% int
Key Player: CJ Stroud
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, John Metchie III, Robert Woods (large field), Cade Stover (on/off; large field), Dare Ogunbowale (on/off; large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one
Opposing Group: Evan Engram, Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby (on/off), Parker Washington, Brenton Strange, Devin Duvernay (large field)
Lineup Notes: As part of a leaguewide plague of reduced passing, quarterback CJ Stroud has just 14 touchdown passes against an ugly nine interceptions on the season. Stroud averages 7.3 yards per pass attempt over 33.0 attempts per game, solid volume that is delivered in the direction of excellent pass-catching options. Stroud was better last season and he has significant any-given-slate appeal with a strong connection with standout weapon Nico Collins in the passing game. Stroud and Collins are capable of multi-score days with yardage totals well over the bonus and double-digit catches, they are an excellent combination off the top of one of the leading stacks in all of Week 13. Houston slots in as 3.5-point favorites in a 43.5-point game against a low-end Jacksonville defense that allows a league-worst 8.5 yards per pass attempt, this spot is primed for success. Stroud ranks as QB2 by points and QB3 by value on DraftKings, he is QB2 by points and slots in as the best option at QB1 by points-per-dollar value on the FanDuel slate but he will not be as popular as his matchup should warrant, both Stroud and Collins are projected for single-digit popularity around the industry, making them one of our most appealing options of the week. Of course, the upside of the Texans does not live and die exclusively with that combination. Running back Joe Mixon is a weekly threat for more than 25 touches and ridiculous production. Mixon averages 4.2 yards per rush attempt on 20.6 carries per game while drawing an additional 3.8 opportunities in the passing attack for 24.4 potential touches per game. The running back gains 6.6 yards per target and has scored once on a pass and 10 times on rushing attempts. Mixon lands in excellent form as RB2/2 on DraftKings and RB1/2 on FanDuel, he is a go-to play against a defense that sits in the middle of the league with 4.3 yards allowed per rush attempt and 25th out of 32 teams with 1.5 rushing touchdowns allowed per game. Tank Dell joins Collins to form a lethal one-two combination in the passing attack while tight end Dalton Schultz takes a bit more of a backseat with 4.8 targets to Dell’s 6.2 per game. Schultz sees regular opportunities but has not managed to make his way into the end zone with the ball this season but he has been targeted in the red zone in each of the last two games and he was a regular option with five touchdowns just last season. Dell sees a strong chance for big plays with a 10.2-yard average depth of target but he only has two receiving touchdowns on the season in what has been an uninspiring passing game most weeks. Dell’s volume, skill set, and the nature of his targeting make him an option that is easy to include when stacking Texans, he is WR17/17 on DraftKings and WR17 by points and WR13 by value on FanDuel where he is highly interesting for a mere $6,400. Stacking both receivers with Stroud is a strong approach but Mixon’s volume can add padding to a stack by utilizing him in tandem with Stroud and a pass-catcher while not diminishing direct correlation by a great degree. Stroud with both Dell and Schultz will easily be the lowest-owned combination of the leading options in tournaments, there is scoring potential to support such a play. Depth option John Metchie III has been targeted just 2.1 times per game on a 9.2-yard average depth of target for 5.60% of the air yards and a single touchdown. The score came in Week 10 when he also posted a season-high five catches and 74 yards over a high of six targets. Metchie is a mix-in value play who ranks as just a dart throw but he has seen exactly three targets in each of the two games since his big day. Veteran Robert Woods has not caught more than two passes or seen more than three targets in any game this season, he is at best a dart throw that shows no obvious value on 1.6 targets per game and a 7.9-yard ADOT. Dare Ogunbowale sees 1.8 targets per game out of the backfield, he has a receiving touchdown but lacks the volume for consideration in anything but the most desperate of cost-based touchdown-fantasy plays. Xavier Hutchinson is also similarly thin with two of the big receivers in play. Hutchinson was targeted just one time in the team’s most recent game, he has zero touchdowns on the season and gains just 3.9 yards per target despite a 9.7-yard average depth of target. Cade Stover was targeted four times last week, catching three passes for 28 yards and a touchdown to the endless frustration of Dalton Schultz owners. With at least two targets in each of the team’s five most recent games, including a red zone target in three straight, Stover is a bit more than a low-end mixer at tight end. The Houston defense lands favorably as D3 by points on both sites but they slip to just D10 and D14 on DraftKings and FanDuel when value is accounted for, making them less appealing against a Jaguars team that is worse than the sum of its parts.
The Texans are Stack 1 by points and Stack 4 by value on the DraftKings slate, they are Stack 1 across the board on FanDuel in Week 13
Indianapolis Colts
Game Total: 42.0 / IND -2.5 (22.25 imp.)
Plays: 44.78% rush / 55.22% pass / 20.2 ppg / 4.5 ypa rush / 7.2 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass / 23.5 ppg / 6.70% sack / 1.06% int
Key Player: Anthony Richardson
Setting: at most two / at least one (this allows for both “naked” Anthony Richardson lineups and multi-player stacks, utilize with max/min exposure rules)
Team Group: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Adonai Mitchell, Alec Pierce (Q; likely), Anthony Gould (large field), Kylen Granson/Mo Alie-Cox/Drew Ogletree (on/off; rotation), Laquon Treadwell (on/off; large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Rhamondre Stevenson, Hunter Henry, DeMario Douglas (Q; limited), Kayshon Boutte, Kendrick Bourne, Ja’Lynn Polk
Lineup Notes: The Colts land as an interesting value-based option on one site in a Week 13 matchup against the Patriots. Indianapolis checks in as a 2.5-point favorite on the road and they have a mid-ranked 22.25-point implied team total but they are not expensive as a group with several depth options stepping into larger roles. Quarterback Anthony Richardson is simply too cheap for his tournament ceiling. Richardson may have a limited scoring average but his cannon arm can lead to gigantic plays and piles of fantasy points on the right slate. Richardson will remain of interest for DFS tournaments as long as his price remains as low as this week’s $5,500/$7,800, few quarterbacks offer true slate-winning upside for that type of money. Now for the bad news. On the season, Richardson is completing just 47.0% of his pass attempts for 175.25 yards per game. Richardson has thrown five touchdowns and seven interceptions in his handful of starts, losing valuable time to veteran Joe Flacco along the way. The second-year signal-caller has managed 7.3 yards per pass attempt with 4.7 air yards per attempt but a 12.6-yard intended air yards per attempt mark. Richardson’s accuracy and decision making may be highly questionable but his ability to get the ball far down the field in a hurry is not. Richardson is QB 9 by points but QB4 by value on DraftKings, on FanDuel he is QB10 by points but slips to QB14 by value given the higher price against the cap. The Colts are by far a better option on DraftKings than on FanDuel this week. Jonathan Taylor is a good play on either site. Taylor slots in as RB6 by points and RB5 by value on DraftKings and ranks as a top selection as RB8 by points but RB3 by value on FanDuel. The veteran carries the ball 17.9 times per game and adds 2.4 targets to get to the fringe of our desire for 20 potential touches. Taylor has five rushing touchdowns while gaining 4.4 yards per rush attempt, he is a strong play against a defense that allows a mid-ranked 4.3 yards per rush attempt, though it is worth a mention that New England has held opponents to just 0.8 rushing touchdowns per game while yielding 1.9 passing touchdowns. Michael Pittman Jr. should benefit as the lead target with Josh Downs out for Week 13. Pittman draws 6.5 targets per game but has seen steady competition from the equally talented Downs, who particularly gained ground when Flacco was at the helm. Pittman sees a strong 12.1-yard average depth of target for 24.07% of the team’s air yards and he has a pair of receiving touchdowns on the board, he is in the mix for shares with big-play scoring ability. Pittman checks in as another terrific value play on DraftKings, where he is WR15 by points but WR2 by value. On FanDuel Pittman is just WR22 by points and WR18 by value. With Richardson, Taylor, and Pittman all landing in the top-five for value at their respective positions, the potential advantage provided in stacking Colts on DraftKings should be clear. Indianapolis is not a reliable team but they have ideal structure for tournament play. Both Adonai Mitchell and Alec Pierce are bolt-on options for additional cheap scoring and big play ability. Mitchell should see increased volume with Downs out of action, while Pierce remains one of the biggest deep threats on any given slate. Mitchell draws a 13.7-yard average depth of target but has seen just 3.6 targets per game with everyone healthy, he has game-breaking speed but has failed to score on the big opportunities. Pierce, meanwhile, maintains a ridiculous 21.8-yard average depth of target as a lethal downfield lightning strike receiver on four targets per game. Pierce has four touchdowns this season but he can disappear for games at a time, particularly if his quarterback is not having an accurate day. The receiver caught one pass for 39 yards but did not score last week, he has five plays of more than 40 yards this season and 10 of more than 20 yards. Pierce is WR42/51 and WR44/46 across sites while Mitchell does slightly better as WR31 by points but WR16 by value on DraftKings and WR35/25 on FanDuel. The team is frustrating with a multi-headed tight end, typically none of Kylen Granson, Drew Ogletree, or Mo Alie-Cox provides much reliability for value, they are low-end touchdown-dependent mixers even in value stacks. Anthony Gould could get in the mix for a few targets as a depth receiver, particularly if the currently questionable Pierce does not suit up – he is expected to play as of Saturday night – but Gould has not been in uniform since Week 3. The Colts defense is an interesting option across sites against a scuffling Patriots squad. New England has gained just 4.4 yards per rush and 5.9 yards per pass attempt this season, though they have been improved with rookie Drake Maye in charge. The Indianapolis DST drops into this week’s slate as D2 by points and D1 by value on DraftKings, they are less interesting as D2 by points but D7 by value on FanDuel.
The Colts are Stack 11 by points but rise all the way to Stack 2 by value on DraftKings, they are simply Stack 16/11 on the FanDuel slate
Jacksonville Jaguars
Game Total: 43.5 / JAC +3.5 (20.0 imp.)
Plays: 40.73% rush / 59.27% pass / 18.9 ppg / 4.5 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass / 22.3 ppg / 9.77% sack / 3.87% int
Key Player: Trevor Lawrence (Q; expected)
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Evan Engram, Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby (on/off), Parker Washington, Brenton Strange (on/off; large field), Devin Duvernay (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, John Metchie III, Robert Woods (large field)
Game Notes: With a bye week following two missed games with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder, expectations are that quarterback Trevor Lawrence will make his return to the gridiron on Sunday. Lawrence leads a middling attack that gains 222.67 yards per game through the air, 7.3 yards per attempt over 30.4 passes per game. The quarterback threw 11 touchdowns against six interceptions before succumbing to his injury, his 9.0 intended air yards per attempt show a potentially more appealing underlying game that could burst through for scoring. Lawrence has underperformed his talent level and expectations on the whole in his brief NFL career but he has all of the tools needed for DFS success on any slate, in addition to his work in the passing game, the quarterback has run the ball in for three scores and gains 4.5 yards per attempt on his limited 2.8 rushing attempts per game. Lawrence has a strong connection with lead receiver Brian Thomas Jr. who is an excellent downfield option for big scoring plays on an 11.9-yard average depth of target. The receiver has collected 25.7% of the team’s air yards over 5.7 targets per game and has scored five times in the passing game, he has not scored on a run despite a few attempts through the season on gadget plays. Thomas is WR23/21 on DraftKings and WR23/23 on the FanDuel slate, he is playable in stacks and make for a paramount consideration when seeking bring-back plays in stacks of Texans on the other side. Tight end Evan Engram sees exceptional volume at the position. Engram caught 114 of a whopping 143 targets last season and has 36 catches on 49 targets in just seven games this year, including two games of more than 10 targets each. Engram has been over 100 yards only once this season and he has caught just one touchdown pass, it makes scoring matters worse that those events did not occur in the same game. Engram’s output has been middling compared to his typical involvement in this offense but he will always project as an interesting tournament option given the roller coaster nature of his production. Engram is TE3 by points and TE1 by value on both sites in Week 13, he looks like a strong buy as a bring-back play that does not burn salary or a premium skill player position. Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby will split carries in the backfield, with Bigsby coming back from an injury that held him out of the game prior to last week’s bye. Bigsby picked up most of his production for the season in the two weeks that Etienne missed earlier in the year but he remained involved after the starter’s return, while Etienne’s output has been limited overall this season. Overall, this is a tandem that mostly limits one another’s value when both are healthy and active, Bigsby draws 9.5 carries per game to Etienne’s 9.1, while Etienne out-targets Bigsby 3.3 to 0.5 each week. Etienne remains the nominal starter, but the volume is clearly split and there is a fair argument to be made that Bigsby is the better back, given his 5.5 yards per rush attempt and four touchdowns despite the limited action. Etienne gains 4.0 yards per attempt and has scored twice, just 1.8 yards per attempt come after contact. The running back adds just 3.4 yards per target and has failed to score in the passing game. Parker Washington is cheap as WR45/46 and WR47/49 across sites, he is the most likely third option in the passing game after Thomas and Engram, drawing 1.6 targets per game overall but at least three in three of the last four games, peaking at six in Week 9. Washington has not turned the opportunities into much in the absence of better options, his best game of the season saw him catch three of four targets for 46 yards and he has yet to find the end zone. Still, Washington seems slightly more likely than Devin Duvernay or Tim Jones from further down the board. Duvernay is a $3,000/$4,500 option, the minimum across sites, and will be active and a potential dart throw despite failing to catch either of his two targets over 12 routes run on 14 snaps with the offense in the team’s Week 11 game. Duvernay was playing his second game back from a stint on injured reserve but he was not heavily involved prior to the injury either, peaking at nine snaps with the offense in Week 3. The receiver could see more volume, the 14 snaps last week are technically a season high, as are the 12 routes, but he is no more than a low-probability dart throw with a bit of big play potential. Jones is a $3,400/$5,300 receiver who sees 0.4 targets per game on a 7.3-yard average depth of target, he has run three routes in the last two games combined and just eight in the last three. Duvernay is the most interesting dart throw option in the receiving group, in his limited opportunities he has seen a 20.0-yard average depth of target putting him on the board for one big DFS scoring event even as WR80/80 and WR88/87. Beyond the obvious names, the Jaguars are no more than a collection of unlikely scorers and gambles.
Jacksonville ranks as Stack 17 by points but Stack 12 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 21 by points and Stack 20 by value on FanDuel
Los Angeles Chargers
Game Total: 48.0 / LAC -1.0 (24.5 imp.)
Plays: 47.41% rush / 52.59% pass / 22.1 ppg / 4.2 ypa rush / 7.7 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 24.9 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass
Key Player: Patrick Mahomes
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Ladd McConkey, Gus Edwards, Quentin Johnston, Joshua Palmer, Kimani Vidal, Jalen Reagor (large field), Derius Davis (large field)
Opposing Setting:at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts, Tyler Allgeier (on/off), Ray-Ray McCloud III
Lineup Notes: The Chargers are another team presenting a value-based math puzzle to the DFS-playing public this week. Overall, Los Angeles ranks no better than middle-of-the-pack for scoring potential but they land at prices that float value-based upside to nearly the top of the heap on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The Chargers are averaging just 22.1 points per game while gaining 4.2 yards per rush attempt and 7.7 yards per pass but they should benefit from facing a pliable Atlanta defense that is not aggressive in the pass rush and is limited for turnover creation. Los Angeles has Justin Herbert at the wheel for just $5,600/$7,900, he is a different price fit across sites but rates highly for use on both DraftKings and FanDuel. On the former, the quarterback is QB7 by points and leaps to the top spot as QB1 by value, on FanDuel he is QB8 by points and QB5 by value. Herbert mixes well with affordable receivers including Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston, both of whom are inside the top-40 for value. McConkey is WR16 by points and WR18 by value on DraftKings, he has more appeal as WR16 for points but WR7 by value on FanDuel where he costs just $6,300. McConkey is easy to play in standalone circumstances for that value on the blue site but he is also a go-to option in a quality stack across the industry. Herbert has thrown 13 touchdowns and just one interception this season, with four of those touchdown passes landing in McConkey’s capable hands. The receiver draws 6.3 targets per game on a 10.4-yard average depth, giving him solid big play potential for DFS scoring despite only fair volume. Johnston is WR28/39 and WR31/35 across sites, he has big play ability with a 13.1-yard average depth of target and he has hit paydirt for a team-leading six touchdown receptions, establishing a strong connection with Herbert in a show-me season for a former first round pick. Herbert averages 7.6 yards per pass attempt and Johnston gains 8.4 yards per target, a quality combination. Joshua Palmer adds another downfield mixer to the Chargers’ passing game, he has a team-leading 16.0-yard average depth of target over 4.0 targets per game for 24.21% of the air yards, the second-best mark on the team, but that has turned into just one touchdown catch this season. Palmer was a popular preseason choice for upside in season-long drafts but he has not fulfilled his potential peaking with four catches in Week 7, he is WR32 by points but WR25 by value on DraftKings for just $4,300. On FanDuel, Palmer is simply WR39/37 with receptions counting for fewer potential points. Will Dissly is inexpensive again this week for just $4,000/$5,200 across sites. Dissly is TE8/6 on DraftKings and TE6/3 on FanDuel in Week 13, he is a capable pass-catcher who should be more highly priced on recent volume. The tight end ran 30 routes on 46 snaps last week, catching four of four targets for 47 yards, he had a similar day with four catches for 80 yards and a touchdown on 23 routes over 35 snaps in Week 11 and has seen 16 targets over the past three games. Dissly is too cheap for his potential, he is an interesting value-based tight end for standalone shares and he mixes in well in +2 stacks with Herbert and one of the primary pass-catchers in this offense. DJ Chark, Jalen Reagor and Derius Davis are depth options. Reagor caught two of four targets last week, gaining just 20 yards but that is five times more than the four that Davis gained on two catches in the same game. Chark has played one snap all season. The Chargers will be a popular look for value on the ground as well, with Gus Edwards expected to step into starter’s shoes in the absence of JK Dobbins. Edwards carried the ball nine times for 11 yards and a touchdown last week, he has seen just limited volume and the one score all season, gaining 3.3 yards per attempt on 9.0 carries per game. Edwards is a limited back who will succeed as volume smashes against price, he gained just 810 yards on 198 carries last year but scored 13 times in 17 games, if he worms his way into the end zone he will deliver value to those who roster him as RB21 by points but RB6 by value on DraftKings, FanDuel is less of a value proposition as RB22/20. Kimani Vidal could be the sneaky play in the backfield for just $4,000/$4,300, he was expected to pick up added volume that never materialized over the past few weeks and he has gained just 2.4 yards per attempt this season but broke one big scoring play early in the year. The running back was a sixth-round pick, while the Falcons may want to see what they have in their pocket there is no guarantee of interest at that limited level of investment. Vidal is no more than a cheap dart throw of a mixer for 150-lineup builds. The Chargers defense has been a solid option this season but they drop in as just D8/15 and D9/13 across sites against a quality-enough Atlanta team.
Los Angeles is Stack 16 by points but shoots all the way to Stack 3 by value on DraftKings, they are similarly ranked as Stack 17 by points but Stack 3 by points-per-dollar value on the FanDuel board
Los Angeles Rams
Game Total: 49.0 / LAR -2.5 (25.75 imp.)
Plays: 39.32% rush / 60.68% pass / 21.2 ppg / 3.9 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 5.0 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass / 23.6 ppg / 6.02% sack / 3.08% int
Key Player: Matthew Stafford
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Demarcus Robinson, Kyren Williams, Tyler Johnson (large field), Tutu Atwell (large field), Davis Allen (on/off), Colby Parkinson (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Alvin Kamara, Taysom Hill, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Juwan Johnson, Kevin Austin Jr., Foster Moreau, Cedrick Wilson Jr., Mason Tipton
Lineup Notes: With 25.75 implied points on the Vegas board, the Rams are tied with the Bills for the third-highest total on the FanDuel slate and sit alone in third on DraftKings behind just the Ravens and Buccaneers. Los Angeles is primed for an interesting day with the opposing Saints allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt and 23.6 points per game. New Orleans allows 1.3 rushing a 1.2 receiving touchdowns per contest and the Rams’ aggressive passing attack should be able to feast with the team gaining only limited pressure against veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford. The quarterback’s season is essentially split between games in which he had Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua available and those in which he did not. Stafford has thrown six touchdown passes and zero interceptions over the team’s past two games and has been on the cusp of a 300-yard day with three of his past four games cresting the 290-yard passing mark but falling frustratingly short of the bonus. Stafford completed 18 of 27 for 295 yards and four touchdowns in Week 11 against the Patriots and followed it with 24-36 for 243 yards and another two touchdowns last week against the stifling Eagles pass defense. Kupp caught eight passes for 60 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets last week and saw double-digit targets in Week 11 as well, hauling in six of 10 for 106 yards and two touchdown catches. Nacua gained 117 yards on nine catches over 13 targets last week and 123 with a touchdown on 7-9 receiving the week before. In Week 10 he caught nine of 14 passes for 98 yards, another six feet in that one would have had him over 100 receiving yards in four of five games since his return to action. Kupp and Nacua are a nearly unrivaled tandem, they see volume that is best compared to Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery’s job-share on the ground in Detroit, only with even more potential for explosive scoring days. Either or both receivers can rip a bonus day with ease and they both see more than their share of chances in the passing game, leaving third option Demarcus Robinson as the forgotten – but not by us! – option in the passing game. With all of the attention drawn to Kupp and Nacua, Robinson can be interesting given his ability to appear downfield beyond where anyone is looking on his 13.9-yard average depth of target while both Kupp (6.8) and Nacua (9.9) operate somewhat closer to the line of scrimmage and make plays. Robinson caught two passes for 15 yards and did not see that one big play last week but he did catch one of those short balls for a touchdown on a red zone target, paying off a cheap salary, he has upside for more sneaky production in Week 13. Stafford is QB10/10 on DraftKings and QB11/11 on FanDuel while his lead receivers are WR2/3 and WR2/2 (Nacua) or WR7/12 and WR7/19 (Kupp); Robinson, meanwhile, is a still-playable WR38/41 and WR46/48. He is no more than a dart throw but there is potential for a few catches, one big gain, and a touchdown on any given slate. Tutu Atwell and Tyler Johnson are relegated to dart status with volume needed elsewhere. Atwell was targeted three times and caught all three passes for limited gains last week while Johnson has been targeted just once on 10 routes combined over the past two games. In addition to the shares demanded by both Nacua and Kupp in the heavily pass-leaning offense, running back Kyren Williams is almost entirely volume-based at his position, leaving few touches for anyone else. Williams gains just 4.0 yards per rush attempt but carries the ball 18.8 times per game and sees scoring upside when the passing game comes up just shy of the goal line. Williams has punched the ball in for nine rushing touchdowns this year with another two coming on 2.8 targets per game in the passing attack. Williams is rarely our favored option for DFS exposure, if his volume slips even a little, which has happened in recent weeks with the healthy returns of the star receiving tandem, the value is much harder to cobble together to pay off a still-high salary. Williams is RB9 by points but RB17 by value for $7,200 on DraftKings, he is RB10/16 on FanDuel where his price is still $8,400. The running back could have a successful day, particularly if he gets into the end zone, but he has seen a dip from 21, 23, and 22 carries in Weeks 7, 8, and 9 to just 15, 15, and 16 carries over the past three games, no coincidence with the changing nature of the depth chart. The tight end position slightly favors Davis Allen but Colby Parkinson still lurks for touchdown poaching and the team has targeted the tight end position as a whole just four times in the past two games, though one of those was for a Parkinson touchdown in Week 11. Running back Blake Corum is not a playable option unless something happens above him on the depth chart and none of the other options provide more than remote probability.
The Rams are Stack 3 by points and Stack 8 by value on DraftKings and Stack 3 by points and Stack 9 by value on FanDuel, they are a go-to option from the top shelf in Stafford + Kupp/Nacua or +both configurations. Every other combination of Rams players is a large downgrade from those options
Minnesota Vikings
Game Total: 44.5 / MIN -3.5 (24.0 imp.)
Plays: 46.92% rush / 53.08% pass / 24.9 ppg / 4.0 ypa rush / 8.4 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.3 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass / 21.5 ppg / 7.57% sack / 1.69% int
Key Player: Sam Darnold
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, Jalen Nailor, Brandon Powell (large field), Cam Akers (on/off), Trent Sherfield Sr. (on/off; large field), Johnny Mundy (on/off; large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: James Conner, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, Trey Benson (on/off)
Lineup Notes: As the favored side of a 44.5-point game that lands squarely in the middle of the slate, the Vikings are a somewhat interesting option across sites. Neither expensive nor cheap, Minnesota is a targetable play for a quarterback+1 or +2 build with upside options at every skill position. The Vikings are facing a beatable mid-level Cardinals defense that yields 21.5 points per game on 4.3 yards per rush attempt and 7.3 yards per pass, quarterback Sam Darnold should be able to find his premium pass catchers for big gains in this contest. Darnold has thrown 21 touchdown passes against 10 interceptions on the season. While those numbers are by no means immaculate, not many people would have expected such a performance from the now-journeyman veteran quarterback even knowing he would start the full season. Darnold throws for 8.3 yards per pass attempt on 8.8 intended air yards per attempt and slings the ball nearly 30 times per game with two outstanding wide receivers helping his potential. Justin Jefferson is a fixture at or near the top of wide receiver projections and rankings, Week 13 is no different. The superstar slots in as WR4 by points and WR14 by value on DraftKings while landing as WR6/14 on the FanDuel slate. Jefferson is a premium option but he is always priced that way. On the other hand, Jordan Addison still looks affordable at $5,300/$6,300. The number two option in the passing game ranks as WR25 by points and WR29 by value on DraftKings and WR27/31 on FanDuel. Addison exploded for 162 yards and a touchdown on 8-9 receiving in Week 12, his second-straight game with a touchdown. The receiver was slot to get going for the year but has been coming on fast, he has scored in three of the past four games while increasing his target share every time out. Addision is a playable counterpart both in combination with Jefferson and in lineups apart from the star, he can also be utilized as a standalone player with touchdown-scoring upside. Addison has four touchdown catches on the season while Jefferson slots in with five. The star sees a larger air yards share at 38.58% on an 11.9-yard ADOT, though Addison gets further down the field on average with a 14.6-yard ADOT and 25.89% of the air yards over his 5.6 targets per game. Jefferson’s 8.3 chances per game are by far team-leading, tight end TJ Hockenson slots in next with 6.3 targets per game since his return, he saw nine last week, tying Addison for the team lead. The tight end caught seven of those nine passes for 114 yards but did not find his way into the end zone. On the ground, running back Aaron Jones should continue to provide fairly reliable output for DFS scoring, he was over 100 yards for the first time since Week 3 and second time all season in the team’s Week 12 contest. Jones racked up 106 yards on 22 carries, adding 23 more yards from three catches on four targets. Jones sees strong volume with 16.3 carries and 3.4 targets per game, he gains 4.5 yards per rush attempt and has punched the ball into the end zone three times on the ground and once in the passing game this season. Jones is RB11 by points and RB10 by value on DraftKings, the veteran is RB13/12 on the FanDuel slate. Further down the board, second string running back Cam Akers is a mixer to use in an on/off sense in stacking. Akers gains just 3.8 yards per rush attempt with 1.5 yards after contact per attempt, he poached a touchdown in the rushing game and two in the passing attack this season but his potential touch count is low in typical circumstances. Akers sees just 6.5 carries and 1.3 targets per game, he is no more than a low-probability touchdown play at a cheap price. Jalen Nailor rivals the team’s top pass-catchers for depth of target with an 11.1-yard ADOT and an 11.23% air yards share despite just 2.5 targets per game. Nailor has big play ability and he has found the end zone five times this season he caught one of two targets last week, gaining five yards and scoring for the first time in three games. Nailor’s first three touchdowns of the season came in Weeks 1, 2, and 3, all with Addison out of action. The receiver is a dart throw but he sees at least a few chances each week and made the most of them over the first half of the season. Nailor is just WR58/57 and WR64/65. Brandon Powell, Johnny Mundt, and Trent Sherfield Sr. are no more than mix-in options and they barely register for that title. Powell is the most interesting in the group, given a 10.6-yard average depth of target over his extremely limited involvement this season. Minnesota ranks highly as D5 by points and D13 by value on DraftKings and D6 by points and D9 by value on FanDuel, their aggressive approach generates fantasy points and they have the upside to keep Arizona scoring mostly in check.
The Vikings are Stack 7 by points and Stack 7 by value on DraftKings in Week 13, they ranks as Stack 8 by points but just Stack 12 by value on the larger FanDuel slate
New England Patriots
Game Total: 42.0 / NE +2.5 (19.75 imp.)
Plays: 42.26% rush / 57.74% pass / 16.4 ppg / 4.4 ypa rush / 5.9 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4,4 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass / 22.8 ppg / 6.65% sack / 2.04% int
Key Player: Drake Maye
Setting: at least one
Team Group: Rhamondre Stevenson, Hunter Henry, DeMario Douglas (Q; limited), Kayshon Boutte, Kendrick Bourne, Ja’Lynn Polk, Antonio Gibson (on/off), Austin Hooper (on/off; large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Adonai Mitchell, Alec Pierce (Q; likely), Anthony Gould (large field)
Lineup Notes: The Colts defense ranks in the middle of the league by most metrics, including advanced stats like success per drop-back and completion percentage over expected allowed, they are entirely beatable but Drake Maye and the Patriots are no better than average themselves. New England checks in with an offense averaging under 6.0 yards per pass attempt with only league-average success on the ground. The team has run a more pass-focused attack with a bit more pace since Maye took over the starting quarterback job in Week 6, with Maye throwing 32.3 passes per game overall. The rookie has a three-touchdown game and a pair of games over 275 passing yards to his credit but he has also stacked up seven interceptions against his 10 touchdown passes. Maye gains just 6.4 yards per pass attempt and has limited options for pass-catchers with DeMario Douglas leading the way. Douglas draws 5.5 targets per game, second to tight end Hunter Henry’s 6.2, both pass-catchers have scored only once this season, a trend down the depth chart on this team. Douglas and Henry both gain 7.2 yards per target this season, they are the leading options for scoring opportunities, though Douglas is questionable to play after limited practices this week. If the receiver is out, Henry will likely see an uptick in target expectation while Kayshon Boutte and Kendrick Bourne will climb slightly in receiver rankings on enhanced opportunities. Boutte is currently WR48/44 and WR48/45 across sites and Bourne ranks even worse, the receivers are essentially splitting five targets each over the past few weeks. Ja’Lynn Polk has an 11.2-yard average depth of target that is only outdone by Boutte’s excellent 15.4-yard mark on the season, both players are opportunistic big play creators. Polk has drawn merely 2.7 targets per game, he saw two last week and draws 13.59% of the team’s air yards overall on the limited volume, he would only drop into playable territory if Douglas is absent, otherwise his value is merely as a touchdown-dependent dart throw at one explosive play, a gain significantly more than the seven yards he posted on one catch last week. Running back Rhamondre Stevenson gains 3.7 yards per attempt on 14.7 carries per game and adds 3.4 yards per target on 3.2 opportunities each week in the passing game. Stevenson has seven combined touchdowns with six coming in the rushing game but he is capable of blanking out entirely on a slate, which was the case again in Week 12. Stevenson carried the ball just eight times for 13 yards over 25 snaps last week after seeing 20 carries for two games in a row. Stevenson has been below 15 carries in six of his 11 games and was below 10 carries in three of those. The running back projects as RB14 by points and RB11 by value on DraftKings and RB17 by points but RB9 by value on FanDuel where he and Maye both come cheap. Austin Hooper and Antonio Gibson offer more name recognition than scoring quality at this stage of their careers. Gibson has failed to score despite a handful of touches per game throughout the season, Hooper has two receiving touchdowns but draws just 3.2 targets per game overall. Between the two, the tight end is the more appealing option but he is at best a mix-and-match on/off option in lineup building processes. The Patriots are a low-end offense that averages just 16.4 points per game, they do not offer much for value-based upside given a limited ceiling.
New England is Stack 20 by points and Stack 15 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 22 by points but climb to Stack 14 by value on FanDuel with Maye landing as QB16 by points but QB6 by value on the blue site
New Orleans Saints
Game Total: 49.0 / NO +2.5 (23.25 imp.)
Plays: 46.02% rush / 53.98% pass / 23.8 ppg / 4.6 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.6 ypa rush / 8.2 ypa pass / 25.1 ppg / 8.05% sack / 3.13% int
Key Player: Derek Carr
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Alvin Kamara, Taysom Hill, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Juwan Johnson, Jamaal Williams (Q; likely; on/off), Kevin Austin Jr., Foster Moreau, Cedrick Wilson Jr., Mason Tipton
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Demarcus Robinson, Kyren Williams, Tyler Johnson (large field), Tutu Atwell (large field), Davis Allen (on/off), Colby Parkinson (on/off)
Lineup Notes: On the shorter side of a 49-point total, the Saints are an interesting mixer for DFS slates this week. New Orleans ranks extremely well for value-based scoring on DraftKings despite middling overall projection averages, they are more highly priced and do not hit the same value marks on the FanDuel slate where players like running back Alvin Kamara are probably more appropriately deployed in standalone shares. The Saints average 23.8 points per game with Kamara gaining a solid 4.3 yards per rush attempt to lead the way. The team’s passing attack is moderate at best this season with 7.3 yards per pass attempt, part of the blame can fall to the absence of their top two receivers from the start of the year but at least some of the blame falls to an only adequate performance from Derek Carr. The veteran signal-caller has completed 69.0% of his 26.38 pass attempts per game for 8.3 yards per attempt with 13 touchdown passes against just four interceptions but his 217.75 yards per game and limited overall volume have not stood out for DFS quality and he has missed a few contests this season. Carr is ranked as just QB14 by points but jumps to QB5 by value on DraftKings for just a $5,100 price tag. At $7,300, Carr is just QB15/15 on FanDuel where he has only limited value. Kamara is an easy option to pair with Carr in stacks as a +1 or on the way to a +2 build, he sees 23.2 potential touches per game and has seven touchdowns across the rushing and passing game. It is worth a note that four of those touchdowns came in one huge performance early in the season, but Kamara maintains major weekly volume potential. Taysom Hill had one of his gigantic outlier days in Week 11, scoring three times on seven rushing attempts over which he gained 138 yards. Hill also caught eight of 10 targets for 50 yards on a season-high 18 routes run, he was unstoppable and mandatory for winning slates in what was by far his biggest performance of the year. Hill’s value is clear with his ability to score in all three aspects of the offense but nailing the right week for his upside is uniquely difficult with the way he is deployed. The supposed tight end is playable on any given slate but he projects particularly well this week and comes cheap despite the huge performance in the team’s last game. Hill is TE1 by points and TE2 by points-per-dollar value on both sites in Week 13, he has both standalone and in-stack value and could be the team’s primary target in the passing game alongside Kamara once again. The veteran running back had 89 scrimmage yards on 16 carries and four receptions during Hill’s massive Week 11 game, he is RB1/1 on DraftKings and RB2/1 on FanDuel against a Rams defense that allows 4.6 yards per rush attempt but only 0.9 rushing touchdowns per game. With both Hill and Kamara topping their positions for point potential, the Saints are playable as a stack but that will be the most common construction, it is likely that either Kamara or Hill will have more value as a standalone with other quarterbacks. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has carved out an interesting role in the Saints’ passing game with the primary options missing. The receiver is the team’s lead option after a pair of strong performances. In Week 10, Valdes-Scantling caught three of three targets for 109 yards and a pair of touchdowns, putting huge plays on the board. He was at it again in Week 11 with two catches on four targets going for 87 yards and a touchdown. Valdes-Scantling has three catches for 40 or more yards in the past two games, he has tremendous upside for big scoring events but ranks as just WR43/48 and WR42/47 across sites on a median score basis. The player has a more substantial ceiling than his average projection might yield, his depth of target average is 19.1 yards and he has demonstrated the ability to succeed even with limited volume, making him playable alongside Kamara in stacks. Juwan Johnson has been checked to just 2.9 targets and 2.3 catches per game this season, he has a pair of receiving touchdowns but the output has been thin at best, if Hill is more of a receiver at tight end after the big target week and with the return of running back Jamaal Williams in the rushing attack, Johnson may hit the skids entirely for scoring. Williams is expected to return after missing the past three games, but his involvement will be a major question mark given the success of Hill on the ground in his absence. Williams was brought to New Orleans to be a sledgehammer on top of Kamara’s attack, he has failed to deliver in most weeks and has provided no fantasy upside since his days in Detroit. The question simply becomes what is the impact that Williams and, to a degree, Johnson have on Hill’s scoring upside. Kevin Austin Jr. and Cedrick Wilson Jr. should provide depth at wide receiver, both rank outside of the top-50 in both categories on both sites, they have no true appeal or volume in the passing game, Wilson ran four routes on 10 snaps last week while Austin caught one of two targets over 15 routes on 39 snaps. Any remaining options such as Mason Tipton are even more extended dart throws with little-to-no support for shares.
The Saints are Stack 13 by points but Stack 1 by value on DraftKings this week, they are just Stack 12/13 as a differently priced option on the FanDuel slate where standalone plays are the stronger approach to shares of Kamara or Hill
New York Jets
Game Total: 42.5 / NYJ +1.0 (20.75 imp.)
Plays: 36.21% rush / 63.79% pass / 18.5 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 6.4 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass / 22.2 ppg / 7.20% sack / 2.22% int
Key Player: Aaron Rodgers
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Breece Hall (Q;full/expected), Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Braelon Allen, Tyler Conklin, Malachi Corley (large field), Xavier Gipson (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njiba, Tyler Lockett, Kenneth Walker III, Zach Charbonnet (on/off), Noah Fant, Jake Bobo (large field)
Game Notes: The Jets have not held up their end of a great many matchups on offense this season, the team averages a mere 18.5 points per game on limited output in the passing attack. It is easy to blame veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers for the flaws in the Jets passing game this season, so we will. Rodgers is completing just 63.0% of his 34.55 passes each week, throwing for a limiting 6.4 yards per pass attempt on just 6.6 intended air yards per attempt, essentially half the mark of young Anthony Richardson when it comes to intended air yards. Rodgers has thrown 17 touchdown passes while losing seven interceptions, his ratio is fine and the touchdown total is not bad in a limited passing year but he does not have the Jets looking like a functional offense even after the team fired everyone who looked at him funny and brought in all of his best buddies. Rodgers is simply not getting it done on the field, he ranks as QB19/15 on DraftKings and QB21/19 on FanDuel but there is the lingering expectation of an outburst on which Rodgers and Davante Adams will shed the shackles of advancing years and post one big throwback performance. In a game against a pass-happy Seahawks team that is only moderately effective at defending the pass themselves, this could be the week that the Jets break expectations in Vegas. The game total is unappealing in general at just 42.5 but if Seattle is able to score (an entirely separate potential limitation) with the pass then the Jets will be forced to work back down the field aggressively and potentially push scoring toward the alleged stars in their offense. Breece Hall has been held to just 4.2 yards per rush attempt on 13.8 carries per game, he has four rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns this season on 5.5 targets per game. Hall sees steady volume with 19.1 potential touches per game and his price is down somewhat from his previous star levels. For just $7,500, Hall is RB5 by points and RB9 by value on DraftKings, he is RB7/13 for a relatively more expensive $8,700 on FanDuel. Adams and counterpart Garrett Wilson should form an elite 1/1A combination with their combined skills at receiver. Adams has just two touchdowns on the season while gaining 6.7 yards per target on a 7.7-yard average depth of target across all of his games with two organizations. Wilson slots in with a team-leading 9.8 targets per game but he has gained just 6.7 yards per target on 6.3 catches per game. Wilson leads the Jets with five receiving touchdowns but Adams has seen more volume over the past few weeks. Adams picked up 31 targets over the past three games, gaining 194 yards on 19 catches with one touchdown. Wilson caught 18 of 24 passes for 149 yards and two touchdowns, both of which came in Week 9 against Houston. Both receivers are involved in the team’s mediocre passing attack, if Rodgers can find his old form for an hour or two they could spike a big upside game at the same time but expectations for that level of scoring should be limited. Wilson is WR8 by points and WR7 by value on DraftKings while Adams lands as WR9 by points and 13 by value on DraftKings and looks good as WR10 by points but WR3 by value on the blue site for just $7,000. Down the depth chart things thin out quickly for New York. Tight end Tyler Conklin has two receiving touchdowns on four targets per game but his volume fluctuates aggressively, making him not much more than a dart throw at regular pricing on FanDuel and just TE19/18 for $3,000 on DraftKings. Conklin is more involved than Braelon Allen who has picked up just 5.6 carries per game while gaining a mere 3.7 yards per carry. Allen made a few plays early in the season to look like a potential breakout backup but he failed to live up to the opportunity and sees just backup work at this stage. Allen carried the ball nine times for 33 total yards over the team’s last two games but he would immediately spike in value if the currently questionable – but expected to play – Breece Hall does not suit up for Sunday. Malachi Corely and Xavier Gipson are perfect Madden Franchise Mode receiver names who happen to actually exist on the Jets. As neither draws even one target per game for the season it would not be surprising if this is news to even Aaron Rodgers himself. Corley and Gipson are among the more desperate of the slate’s desperate dart throws but each has managed to find the end zone for a score this season. No remaining Jets show value worthy of discussion on offense but the team’s defense is popping up for quality as D6/2 on DraftKings and D7/3 on FanDuel. New York is facing a Seattle team with a prolific passing attack but an overall scoring problem, the Jets have defended the pass well and have an aggressive pass rush that could give Geno Smith and the Seahawks trouble, if they can limit scoring the Jets could pile on some affordable defensive points for just $2,500/$3,700.
The J-E-T-S are stack stack stack 5 by points and 9 by value on DraftKings, they land as Stack 6 by points and Stack 8 by value on FanDuel which puts them in range for a not insignificant share of stacks and indicates that they are at worst a good source of individual upside. If this game happens to get a kick in the passing department it could turn into an unexpected romp of a shootout
Philadelphia Eagles
Game Total: 51.0 / PHI +2.5 (24.25 imp.)
Plays: 56.26% rush / 43.74% pass / 26.9 ppg / 5.2 ypa rush / 8.3 ypa pass
oppDEF: 3.5 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass / 24.5 ppg / 7.66% sack / 1.49% int
Key Player: Jalen Hurts
Setting: at most two / at least one (this allows for both “naked” Jalen Hurts lineups and multi-player stacks, utilize with max/min exposure rules)
Team Group: Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith (Q; limited), Dallas Goedert, Jahan Dotson, Ainias Smith (large field), Kenneth Gainwell (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, Justice Hill, Diontae Johnson, Nelson Agholor
Lineup Notes: We said it last season before he left. We said it this year before his Eagles debut. We repeated it numerous times through the first half of the season but it still bears repeating, Saquon Barkley is simply the best player in football. The Eagles running back put up an astounding performance in Week 12, breaking fantasy scores with 255 yards on 26 carries, including two for touchdowns, and another 47 yards coming on 4-4 receiving. For those not adding along at home, that is more than 300 scrimmage yards in a single contest. Other players put up numbers, including massive gains on the ground. One need look no further than the other side of this game for the next-best running back, but Derrick Henry’s gains, amazing as they are, tend to be of more a straight line, speed, and force nature, where Barkley is capable of showing you things no one has ever done on a football field on what seems like a weekly basis. The running back gains 6.2 yards per rush attempt for 126.5 yards on amazing volume this season. Barkley sees 203 carries per game, nearly two more attempts per game than Henry sees for the Ravens. The running back picks up added potential via major opportunities in the passing attack, where he is targeted three times on average but spikes big days and has scored twice. Barkley is a weapon for quarterback Jalen Hurts who actually has one more rushing touchdown with 11 to the superstar running back’s 10. Hurts is a high-end fantasy quarterback because of that unique ability to punch the ball into the end zone seemingly at will once the team gets in close, he has thrown 13 touchdown passes against just five interceptions, he is fine in the passing game but the upside for touchdown scoring is tremendously valuable. Hurts throws the ball just 25.91 times per game but gains an excellent 8.4 yards per pass attempt while working with two excellent receivers with both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are healthy and active, which has been the challenge this season. The receivers are tied with four touchdown catches each, Smith has played in nine games to Brown’s eight, but is lingering on the depth chart as questionable (but expected to play per reporting) for Week 13. Brown is the true star between the two, he draws 7.0 targets per game to Smith’s 6.2 and sees a 13.3-yard average depth of target with major big play ability and 34.95% of the air yards. Smith works on a solid 10.4-yard ADOT and sees 27.36% of the air yards, he is also a significant downfield weapon in the passing game. The Eagles take big shots to both of their top weapons in the passing game, even with Hurts throwing the ball fewer times than most premium passers this team typically rates as one of our best options for offense, given the superstars up and down the likely scoring portion of the roster. Hurts is QB5 by points but QB19 by value on DraftKings, he has more potential as QB5 by points but QB10 by value on FanDuel but the Eagles are an expensive option all around. Barkley is RB3 by points on both sites, he is RB12 by value on DraftKings and RB8 by value on FanDuel and remains a high priority pay-up on both sites. Brown is a top shelf receiver play as WR5 by points on both sites, he is WR19 by value on DraftKings but holds strong for upside as WR10 by value on FanDuel. Smith is WR24/33 on DraftKings and slips as just WR29/41 on the FanDuel slate where he is an awkward price fit for $7,500 but retains major scoring potential and could slip past the public as an anti-optimizer play. Smith is at worst a high-ceiling mix-and-match player on both sites. Dallas Goedert should not be overlooked in stacks or as a positional standalone player, he ranks as TE6 by points and TE9 by value on DraftKings and is TE10/11 on FanDuel this week. Goedert has only one touchdown on the board but sees a steady stream of targets with 5.3 per game putting him third on the team. Goedert is more of a grind by volume player with touchdown dependency than someone who will stack up significant yardage, given his 6.8-yard average depth of target and 9.7 yards per target but he is capable of breaking plays in the open field. Jahan Dotson sees 1.6 targets per game and catches fewer than one of them each week. Unproductive would be too busy a word for the season that Dotson has had, he is entirely skippable as a low-volume low-probability dart. Ainias Smith went untargeted with Dotson picking up just one target last week, Johnny Wilson is out so his target may go to either Smith or Dotson at the bottom of the board if the team runs the plan back in Week 13, this would not move the needle for the low-end receivers. With Barkley doing most of the work on the ground there is only so much potential for Kenneth Gainwell who has picked up a solid 4.7 yards per rush attempt with a lone touchdown on the board this season. Gainwell is a longshot for success with just 4.3 carries and 1.0 targets per game, he would need a misfortune or two above him on the depth chart and in the general offensive scheme before he saw true value. Only Brown, Smith, and Goedert see reliable volume alongside Barkley’s massive share both on the ground and in the passing game, the four skill players are excellent for blending in shares across numerous stacks with Hurts.
The Eagles are Stack 4 by points but fall all the way to Stack 19 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 4 by points but Stack 16 by value on the FanDuel slate with everyone highly priced on both sites in Week 13. Barkley’s FanDuel value mark is probably the most appealing single aspect of the Eagles’ offense this week
Update: There is increasing buzz that DeVonta Smith is unlikely to make it back for Week 13, this would increase projection for Brown, Goedert, Barkley, and the top-end while pushing more upside toward Dotson and Smith as value options who would still only retain low-end probability shares
Pittsburgh Steelers
Game Total: 47.5 / PIT +2.5 (22.5 imp.)
Plays: 52.29% rush / 47.71% pass / 22.9 ppg / 3.9 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.4 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 26.9 ppg / 4.88% sack / 1.62% int
Key Player: Russell Wilson
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: George Pickens, Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, Pat Freiermuth, Calvin Austin III, Mike Williams, Van Jefferson (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown, Mike Gesicki, Andrei Iosivas, Drew Sample (on/off), Tanner Hudson (on/off), Jermaine Burton (large field)
Game Notes: The Steelers have been a rush-leaning team throughout the season and that has only increased since Russell Wilson took over at quarterback, in what might be the opposite reaction from what many would expect from a quarterback upgrade. Wilson has thrown the ball steadily with 29.8 attempts per game, completing 63.0% of those for 8.1 yards per attempt with seven touchdowns and a pair of interceptions this season. Running back Najee Harris has carried the ball 55 times to mixed effect over the past three games combined. Harris has gained 157 yards, just 2.85 per attempt, and scored one touchdown in those three games. At the same time, Jaylen Warren has picked up volume with 34 carries for 152 yards, a more robust 4.47 per attempt, and has also scored a touchdown. Warren scored last week, gaining 45 yards on 11 carries with another 19 yards coming on three catches. Harris gained 41 yards on 16 carries and had 13 yards on two catches in that game. The backfield has returned to a somewhat even split with the increased focus on the rushing attack, the Steelers have been third in neutral rushing rate since Wilson’s debut. Harris ranks as RB15/15 on DraftKings and RB16/14 on FanDuel while Warren is RB20/20 and RB23/19 across sites, the true value tends to follow the touchdown to whichever back picks it up. Wilson has George Pickens and tight end Pat Freiermuth as primary weapons in the passing game, with Calvin Austin III emerging as a recent contributor as well. Austin caught three passes for 78 yards and a touchdown on three targets last week, his only good performance since a Week 8 performance for 54 yards and a score against the Giants. Austin is a mixer at the wide receiver position, he ranks as just WR41 by points but does climb to WR28 by value on DraftKings, on FanDuel he is just WR43/43. Pickens, on the other hand, shows more clear-cut value on both sites as WR10/10 on DraftKings and WR8/6 on FanDuel. Pickens is the team’s leading target with 7.6 opportunities per game on a 13.6-yard average depth of target that yields big play ability for scoring events. Pickens has two touchdowns this season but garners a massive 41.98% air yards share that dominates the team’s passing game. Freiermuth is an involved tight end who sees 3.6 targets per game on a 5.2-yard ADOT, he has three touchdowns on the season to tie Austin for the team lead among regular pass-catchers. Freiermuth is not a major downfield threat but he has steady hands and can pick up red zone targeting and volume upticks in the right week as the team’s second or third best option. The tight end ranks as TE12 by points but climbs to TE5 by value on DraftKings, where all things Steelers look slightly better than they do across town on the blue site where Freiermuth is just TE13 by points and TE10 by value. Mike Williams and Van Jefferson slot in as dart throws at big play ability, both receivers can get downfield in a hurry with Williams taking 1.8 targets per game on a 15.3-yard ADOT in combined action with the Jets and Steelers, and Jefferson drawing 2.4 targets on a 12.9-yard average depth. Both receivers have a touchdown in the books but neither is likely to see more than one or two deep pass attempts, they will need to come down with the ball in the end zone to find value. Darnell Washington has a receiving touchdown and sees 55% of the team’s snaps on average but is best left for tight end shares in Showdown formats. Cordarrelle Patterson becomes more valuable in the absence of Harris or Warren, in this role he would only be a dart throw at breaking a big gadget play on extremely thin volume. The Bengals do not have a strong defensive unit but the Steelers rank only in the middle of the board overall, they do show a bit of points-per-dollar upside as a stack on FanDuel, in a bit of a twist.
Pittsburgh is Stack 12 by points and Stack 16 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 13 by points and Stack 7 by value on FanDuel
San Francisco 49ers
Game Total: 44.5 / SF +6.5 (19.0 imp.)
Plays: 46.65% rush / 53.35% pass / 23.6 ppg / 4.9 ypa rush / 8.4 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.9 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass / 19.5 ppg / 6.75% sack / 3.49% pass
Key Player: Brock Purdy (Q; expected)
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, Jordan Mason (on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper, Dawson Knox, Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins
Lineup Notes: With quarterback Brock Purdy expected back in action in Week 13 it is surprising to find the 49ers as such heavy underdogs even in a road game against a premium competitor like the Bills. The 49ers rate as a mid-level stack despite Purdy and the presence of superstar skill players including Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle this week, though any of those players could change that in a hurry with one big play. McCaffrey rates as RB4 by points and RB4 by value on the FanDuel slate, the running back is an easy choice on any slate. Since returning to the field, McCaffrey has yet to score while gaining just 3.5 yards per rush attempt and 8.3 yards per target with per-game averages of 49.7 rushing and 44.0 receiving yards putting him at nearly a 100-yards average from scrimmage despite the limitations apparent in the per-carry numbers. Purdy targets the running back 5.3 times per game out of the backfield, he is an ideal option for add-ons in stacks where it is desirable to leave open receiver positions for other angles. McCaffrey combines with Purdy who ranks as just QB18/22 this week to create more than the sum of the parts. Receiver Jauan Jennings joins Samuel in the passing attack with a slightly higher projection on the non-PPR site. Samuel is WR30/39 on FanDuel while Jennings drops in as WR26/21 on the slate. The receiver has big play ability and caught 10 passes for 91 yards and a touchdown in Week 11 before slipping back to just five catches for 40 yards last week. Jennings picked up 29 targets over the past three games, with 11 in each of Weeks 10 and 11, he could easily slip past the public on perceptions of talent or role limitations, Jennings is a fully trusted full-fledged member of this offense, he should not be disregarded. Samuel, meanwhile, sees 5.6 targets per game on a 7.9-yard average depth of target that demands he utilize his game-breaking skillset to make a huge play, something that has been a bit lacking in frequency this season with Samuel banged up all year. George Kittle is TE5 by points and TE12 by value on the FanDuel slate, he is a major source of positional scoring with eight touchdown receptions this season on 6.6 targets per game. The tight end delivers 10.9 yards per target and works on an 18.18% air yards share, he is a strong play for volume, yardage, and scoring potential each week. Kittle is a playable reach on the FanDuel slate, he belongs in a large portion of 49ers stacks and should be utilized in a standalone capacity as well. Ricky Pearsall is the next man up in the passing game but he is only WR53/56 for $5,300 on this slate. Pearsall caught four passes for 73 yards and a touchdown in Week 10 but picked up only two targets in Week 11 and went untargeted last week despite running 20 routes in each game. Pearsall is a highly talented player who is finding his footing in the league, he is an any-given-slate dart throw in competition with Jennings, Samuel, and Kittle for precious touchdown equity. Jordan Mason is a highly explosive player who is frozen on the bench with McCaffrey back, there simply is not enough volume to support the notion of rolling the dice on Mason shares, even knowing he is a complete gamble in that capacity. Mason is RB46/47 at a position from which we can roster a maximum of three players. None of the other options from the depth portion of the depth chart are realistic for upside, Ronnie Bell is WR92/90 and he is the top-ranked option from the bottom of the list. Chris Conley is questionable and sees no volume when healthy, Eric Saubert is a backup tight end option, and Isaac Guerendo is buried behind Mason in the pecking order.
The 49ers are just Stack 15 by points and Stack 22 by value at high prices, they are a better source of bring-back plays against Buffalo stacks or standalone options for other lineup builds, particularly if stacked with a skill player from the opposing side. For example, one could include an angled stack of Amari Cooper or Khalil Shakir with Jauan Jennings to grab a significant portion of scoring potential from this game in a lineup that otherwise is still stacking players from another highly-projected lineup like Houston
Seattle Seahawks
Game Total: 42.5 / SEA -1.0 (21.75 imp.)
Plays: 35.98% rush / 64.02% pass / 22.4 ppg / 3.9 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 7.0 ypa pass / 22.0 ppg / 9.91% sack / 0.65% int
Key Player: Geno Smith
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njiba, Tyler Lockett, Kenneth Walker III, Zach Charbonnet (on/off), Noah Fant, Jake Bobo (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Breece Hall (Q; full/expected), Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Braelon Allen, Tyler Conklin, Malachi Corley (large field), Xavier Gipson (large field)
Lineup Notes: The Seahawks are slightly favored on the road in North Jersey this week, checking in at -1.0 in a 42.5-point game that splits fairly evenly, giving them a 21.75-point implied team total that neatly fits their 22.0-per game scoring average. The Seattle offense should score more effectively than that, the team gains 7.5 yards per pass attempt on 36.82 attempts per game, racking up 275.91 yards per game through the air. Somehow, with the steady volume and solid output of yardage, quarterback Geno Smith has managed to stall on drive after drive and has thrown just 12 touchdown passes against the same number of interceptions for the season. Smith is typically efficient with his high volume, he completes 69.0% of his attempts but the touchdown-to-interception ratio this season has been both atrocious and limiting to success. If Smith can overcome this ongoing detriment, the Seattle offense could push the upside for scoring and create a bit of a DFS-friendly environment given the elite pass-catching weapons on both sides. The Jets have two excellent wide receivers and the Seahawks have three, if one could only entirely ignore how these teams have performed all season the expectation of a passing-friendly environment should be as simple as that, unfortunately that comes to mere speculation. By the numbers, both sides of this game are in play but the Jets look like the more appealing offense from a projection and per-dollar sense. Seattle is facing the better of these two defenses, the Jets have 34 sacks on the season, a 9.91% sack rate and they pressure the quarterback at a 26.2% clip while allowing just 22.0 points per game, again almost exactly matching the scoring average for Seattle and the implied total they have in Vegas. It’s almost as though oddsmakers know what the likely outcome in this contest is. With Smith slotting in as just QB13/11 on DraftKings and QB14/20 on FanDuel it is somewhat difficult to have faith in the Seahawks as a full stack, there is an argument to be made that they are more appealing with a rotation of DK Metcalf, Jaxson Smith-Njigba, and Tyler Lockett in the passing game. All three receivers are capable of high-end performances, with Metcalf and Smith-Njigba leading the way at 8.5 and 8.3 targets per game. The duo have combined for seven receiving touchdowns, with Smith-Njigba slightly ahead with four. Lockett slips in a bit behind, the veteran receiver has a pair of touchdowns on the season with 5.4 targets coming his way each week. Lockett sees a solid 10.6-yard average depth of target while Metcalf operates further downfield on a 12.9-yard average depth and Smith-Njigba operates closer to the line of scrimmage and makes big plays with the ball in his hands. Metcalf is WR20/26 and WR21/29 across sites, “JSN” is WR19 by points and WR22 by value on DraftKings and WR19/27 on the FanDuel slate, and Lockett is WR29/27 and WR37/36 across sites, all of which are easily playable rankings with touchdown-scoring upside. Kenneth Walker III has gained just 3.8 yards per rush attempt in a bit of disappointing output for the talented running back. Walker has managed to punch the ball in for seven rushing touchdowns, making him the team’s most reliable scoring option by a fair margin. The running back is involved in the passing game as well, he sees 4.7 targets per game to pad his potential touches up to 18.0, which is near enough to the mark to make him playable. Walker has one receiving touchdown this season with upside for more involvement if the team is struggling to score. Zach Charbonnet sees limited opportunities out of the backfield, he carries the ball 6.5 times per game but has not stood out with just 3.4 yards per attempt, his 5.8 yards per target over 3.0 targets per game are underwhelming when it comes to catching passes as well. Charbonnet is simply a mixer for low-probability scoring, he would require a touchdown or huge gain to make any noise on this slate. Noah Fant is a cheap tight end who lacks the regular scoring potential or depth of target to be truly interesting outside of darts. Fant sees 4.0 targets per game on a limited 5.0-yard average depth of target for 5.67% of the team’s air yards, he has zero touchdown catches this season and slots in as TE17/19 and TE19/19, generally unplayable territory for the position. Jake Bobo and AJ Barner are mix-in options at best. Barner sees 2.3 targets per game on a depth similar to that of his counterpart Fant, while Bobo has caught 10 passes all season despite running routes in every game. The Seahawks are a team with four viable skill players at a variety of price points to combine with an effective – on the right day – passer who also hits affordably but the team seems more limited to depth options for standalone shares or potentially high-quality bring-back plays in stacks of Jets.
Seattle is Stack 10 by points but Stack 17 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 11 by points but Stack 19 by value on FanDuel
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Game Total: 46.5 / TB -5.5 (26.0 imp.)
Plays: 41.73% rush / 58.27% pass / 28.1 ppg / 4.9 ypa rush / 7.5 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.7 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass / 30.9 ppg / 4.71% sack / 1.45% int
Key Player: Baker Mayfield
Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Team Group: Mike Evans, Bucky Irving, Rachaad White, Cade Otton, Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard, Sean Tucker, Rakim Jarrett (large field), Trey Palmer (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Chuba Hubbard, Xavier Legette, Adam Thielen, David Moore, Tommy Tremble, Jonathon Brooks (on/off), Deven Thompkins
Lineup Notes: Tampa Bay has one of the league’s most prolific passing attacks by the numbers. The Buccaneers score 28.1 points per game and they are facing a defense that allows a massive 30.9 points per game and 7.6 yards per pass attempt. Tampa Bay has leaned slightly more into the rushing attack in neutral situations but can dial up deep attempts, particularly with Mike Evans back in the mix. Even in the absence of Evans and fellow star receiver, Baker Mayfield has hardly missed a beat for scoring output. Mayfield threw for 330 yards and three touchdowns in the first game without the two stars then followed up with 200 yards and two more touchdown passes in Week 9 before slipping to just 116 yards and a lone touchdown in Week 10. Mayfield completed 24 of 30 passes for 294 yards last week, falling just short of bonus territory while adding to the fantasy frustration by failing to throw a touchdown pass despite the yardage. Mayfield averages 254.45 yards per game and 7.50 per attempt this season with 24 touchdown passes against nine interceptions. Evans missed three games with his injury but he checks back in with excellent upside against this lousy defense, he is WR6 by points and WR1 by value on DraftKings and WR4 by points and WR5 by value on FanDuel. Evans has six receiving touchdowns on an 10.8-yard average depth of target that yields big play scoring potential on a seemingly weekly basis. With Chris Godwin missing there should be endless potential for added targets and scoring chances for Evans against Carolina, he is a strong buy on this slate both as a standalone receiver and in stacks with Mayfield. Adding a +2 option with one of the depth receivers, one of two running back selections, or tight end Cade Otton stretches the stack but Tampa Bay is carrying a 26.0-point implied team total as 5.5-point favorites on the road, they should continue scoring throughout and can pay off an additional stacking spot in the right game script. Tampa Bay sends heavy target volume through the running back position, Rachaad White averages 4.2 targets per game out of the backfield and scored four times in the passing game and twice on the ground this season. White’s value primarily comes from pass-catching, he is always a stronger consideration on PPR scoring sites. For the season, the running back has a 3.7 yards per attempt average on 9.2 carries per game, numbers that are limited by comparison to rookie Bucky Irving who is gaining 5.4 yards per attempt over 9.8 opportunities per game. Irving has scored five times on rushing attempts, showing a bit of bounce with 2.8 yards per attempt coming post-contact. The running back sees chances in the passing attack as well, he draws 3.1 targets per game and gains 7.4 yards per target but has not scored a receiving touchdown in the NFL. White is RB19 by points but leaps to RB7 by value on DraftKings, on the FanDuel slate he is RB21/17 and has far less appeal. Irving is RB16/14 and RB18/18 across sites, he is a solid mixer against the soft defense but the job share is far from ideal. In Week 12, White carried the ball 12 times for 37 yards and a touchdown but drew just one target, down from seven in the previous game. Irving picked up the passing volume with six targets and six catches for 64 yards, he added a dozen carries for 88 yards and a touchdown in a strong performance that could easily be repeated against a Panthers defense allowing 4.7 yards per rush attempt and 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game. Otton has four touchdown grabs on the season. The tight end sees regular chances to succeed with 6.6 targets per game on a 5.2-yard ADOT amounting to 16.97% of the team’s air yards but he is largely touchdown-dependent. Otton is TE10 by points and TE15 by value on DraftKings and TE11/13 on FanDuel. Down the depth chart the team features a mix of middling talents from Jalen McMillan to Sterling Shepard to Rakim Jarrett and Sean Tucker, both of whom are thin dart throws at best. McMillan also returned to action in Week 12 after missing the team’s Week 9 and 10 games before the bye. The receiver caught four passes on seven targets for 35 yards in Week 8, he has one touchdown this season but should operate as the team’s number two option across from Evans. Shepard works underneath as a possession receiver with Evans back in the mix, he caught five passes for just 16 yards last week in a wildly limiting performance for DFS scoring. Jarrett caught one pass for a big 30-yard gain in Week 12 on his only target over six routes run, he is not a particularly viable option. Tucker is an interesting mixer despite the presence of both White and Irving ahead of him on the depth chart. The third-string running back poached a touchdown in last week’s game despite carrying the ball just four times for three yards. Tucker had an outlier performance in the team’s Week 6 game against New Orleans, posting 136 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries in a game that White missed, in games with both White and Irving active, Tucker tops out at five carries and seven potential touches but two carries in the red zone leading to a touchdown just last week at least helps as a proof-of-concept for the $4,500/$5,000 dart throw running back.
The Buccaneers are one of the more appealing options against a pushover Carolina defense, Tampa Bay is Stack 6 by points and Stack 5 by value on DraftKings and Stack 5 by points and Stack 4 by value on FanDuel
Tennessee Titans
Game Total: 45.0 / TEN +5.5 (19.75 imp.)
Plays: 44.66% rush / 55.34% pass / 18.4 ppg / 4.3 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.8 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass / 23.1 ppg / 8.33% sack / 1.21% int
Key Player: Will Levis
Setting: exactly one
Team Group: Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tyler Boyd, Chig Okonkwo, Tyjae Spears (Q; expected, on/off)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Brian Robinson Jr., Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, Noah Brown, Dyami Brown, Jeremy McNichols, Luke McCaffrey, Olamide Zaccheaus
Lineup Notes: Recent Titans games have essentially boiled down to dart throws at Calvin Ridley’s ongoing big-play scoring upside as the team’s first, second, and third best options in the passing attack. Ridley gains 7.9 yards per target over 7.3 targets per game on a 15.8-yard average depth of target that amounts to an exceptional 53.31% of the team’s air yards. The receiver has only caught three touchdown passes this season because the passes represented in those air yards are still thrown mostly by Will Levis who has simply not been good this season. Levis throws 25.38 passes per game, completing 67.0% of them for 7.1 yards per attempt with 10 touchdown passes and nine interceptions, he has a great knack for throwing the wrong pass at the wrong time. Levis limits Ridley, who deserved a ticket out of this lousy situation earlier in the season but he has made the most of it with 93 yards on five catches in last week’s game, 58 yards on four catches the week before, and a pair of scores coming on five catches for 84 yards in Week 10 against the Chargers’ quality defense. Ridley is an easy mixer in non-stacked lineups as WR14 by points but WR4 by points-per-dollar value on DraftKings, he is a more pedestrian but highly playable WR15/12 on FanDuel. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has played spoiler to some scoring upside for Ridley in recent games, he has six total touchdowns on the season, doubling the output of the better receiver. Westbrook-Ikhine has exactly one touchdown catch in six of the team’s last seven games for all of his scoring output. Only one of those games included more than three catches, a five-catch 50-yard performance in Week 9. The receiver caught only two passes in Week 11 but they went for 117 yards and a touchdown on big DFS scoring plays. Westbrook-Ikhine is WR37/43 and WR40/40 across sites, he lives on the edges of playability for the Week 13 slate. Running back Tony Pollard steps forward when Tyjae Spears is out. That was the situation in last week’s matchup and Pollard gained a robust 119 yards on 24 carries, including a rushing touchdown. The running back was effective and added another 10 yards on 3-5 receiving for limited productivity. Spears is due back this week which should cut some of the potential touches away from Pollard once again, diminishing his value to some degree. Overall, the running back gains a sturdy but unspectacular 4.3 yards per rush attempt with 2.2 before and 2.2 after contact per attempt and four rushing touchdowns for the season. Pollard draws 4.1 targets per game but gains just 4.0 yards per target and has not scored on a passing play. The running back is just RB13/13 on DraftKings and RB14/11 on FanDuel and could see further trimming of projection in the morning updates as Spears’ currently questionable status is confirmed. If Spears does play, he is more of a limiter for Pollard shares than an appealing play himself. Spears gains 3.7 yards per rush attempt and 4.9 yards per target this season with a lone rushing touchdown on the board, he is cheap filler at best. Tyler Boyd is a depth option with a track record. Boyd is WR40/40 and WR49/44 across sites, he has yet to score a receiving touchdown this season despite 3.5 targets per game and six targets in the team’s most recent contest. Boyd gains a fair 7.0 yards per target but the lack of reliability and scoring potential make him a thin play at best. Tight end Chig Okonkwo is a more viable bet as TE15/11 on DraftKings and TE18/15 on FanDuel. Okonkwo has two touchdown grabs this season while drawing just 2.9 targets per game. The tight end is inexpensive but he is not a priority option at the position in or out of stacks. No other Titans player has even moderate appeal on this slate.
The Titans are Stack 18 by points and Stack 13 by value on DraftKings and Stack 19/17 on FanDuel in Week 13
Washington Commanders
Game Total: 45.0 / WAS -5.5 (25.25 imp.)
Plays: 48.81% rush / 51.19% pass / 27.8 ppg / 4.8 ypa rush / 7.9 ypa pass
oppDEF: 4.0 ypa rush / 6.5 ypa pass / 26.4 ppg / 7.10% sack / 1.59% int
Key Player: Jayden Daniels
Setting: at most two / at least one (this allows for both “naked” Jayden Daniels lineups and multi-player stacks, utilize with max/min exposure rules)
Team Group:Brian Robinson Jr., Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, Noah Brown, Dyami Brown, Jeremy McNichols (on/off), Luke McCaffrey (large field), Olamide Zaccheaus (large field)
Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)
Opposing Group: Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tyler Boyd, Chig Okonkwo, Tyjae Spears (Q; expected, on/off)
Lineup Notes: Washington drops into Week 13 as a bit of a disappointingly-ranked stack despite what appears to be an appealing 25.25-point implied team total as 5.5-point favorites against an overmatched Titans squad. Part of the issue is the Titans’ ability to check opposing scoring, the Tennessee defense holds opponents to just 4.0 yards per rush attempt and 6.5 yards per pass, the sixth and third best marks in football but they have yielded 26.4 points and three touchdowns per game in a frustrating combination of factors that is largely the fault of their more inept friends on offense keeping them on the field too frequently. Jayden Daniels has a dozen touchdown passes against five interceptions over two thirds of his rookie campaign. The quarterback has been a strong contributor out of the gate for the Commanders, posting a 68.0% completion rate on 27.67 attempts per game. Daniels averages a solid 7.9 yards per pass attempt and 5.6 yards per rush attempt on his 8.3 carries per game. The quarterback has greatly padded his DFS output with five rushing touchdowns to go with his solid passing numbers this season. Daniels and his core of running backs have combined for 1.7 rushing touchdowns per game and 4.8 yards per rush attempt. With Daniels at QB3 by points but QB13 by value this week there are limitations on his upside for the money. Daniels is ranked as QB4 by points and QB7 for value on the FanDuel slate, he is playable but not a value or raw scoring priority on either site even with top-5 projection numbers at the position. Brian Robinson Jr. gains 4.4 yards per rush attempt and has seven touchdowns on the board in the ground game in 2024. Robinson draws 1.7 targets per game to stay loosely involved in the passing attack, padding his potential targets to around 15 per week. While Robinson has been productive the volume is not quite to the level that we typically will target, putting Robinson somewhat in limbo for overall shares as RB17/19 and RB19/21 across sites. Terry McLaurin has seen fluctuations in his targeting of late. The star receiver caught five of six passes for 102 yards and a touchdown last week but came away with one catch on a surprising two targets in Week 11 against Philadelphia. McLaurin was over 100 yards the week before that with 113 on five catches over six targets, the receiver has bonus upside on any given slate and has hit receiving touchdown paydirt seven times this season. McLaurin is a go-to player when stacking this offense but he ranks as just WR18/37 and WR18/28 across sites in Week 13. Noah Brown is WR33/31 and WR34/30, gaining 8.2 yards per target over 5.2 targets per game and an 11.6-yard average depth of target. Brown has one receiving touchdown on the season with a 23.06% air yards share and he saw a big uptick to 10 targets in last week’s contest. Brown caught six of those passes for 71 yards but did not score, his lone touchdown came in Week 8. Tight end Zach Ertz put a fairly-priced touchdown on the board for the second game in a row in Week 12, scoring on his six catches for 38 yards over eight targets. Ertz drew at least seven targets in each of the last three games after a one-target blip in Week 9. The tight end is regularly involved in the offense with 5.8 targets per game overall. Ertz has three touchdowns on a 20.49% air yards share this season. With backup running back Austin Ekeler out this week, dynamic third stringer Jeremy McNichols has become a buzzy addition in season-long play and could see a successful day if he touches the ball often enough. McNichols has four rushing touchdowns despite just 3.7 carries per game, he gains 4.9 yards per rush attempt and has explosive play upside with scoring potential. McNichols is not particularly cheap in his backup and value role, however, he is RB34/37 and RB35/43 this week for $5,400/$6,700. Dyami Brown, Luke McCaffrey, and Olamide Zaccheaus are mix-in dart throws down the depth chart with Zaccheaus leading the way with 2.9 targets per game for the season but Dyami Brown hauling in the only touchdown catch. None of the receivers ranks inside the top-45 in any category on either site. With a lousy Titans team in town, the Washington DST option is a good choice on both sites, the team ranks as D1 by points on both sites and D3 for value on DraftKings and D4 for value on FanDuel.
The Commanders are Stack 14 by points and Stack 18 by value on both sites in Week 13
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