NFL DFS – Main Slate Optimizer Groups (update) & Stack Rankings (update) + Full Game Notes (complete) – Week 4

This article focuses on building lineups with a quality foundation by utilizing the powerful Groups and Rules/Limits tools within the industry’s optimization tools. All of the concepts and pairings included below can also apply to hand-building. The goal is to create lineups with strong correlations among likely point-scorers to maximize the gains from infrequent scoring events within stacks while limiting the likelihood of building inefficient or negatively correlated entries for a full slate of NFL DFS lineups.

This video was made in a former life and features a detailed demonstration of how to apply these concepts in one leading optimizer tool: Fantasy Cruncher – How-To Video

All references to Sims were done via friends of the site: acemind.io

Don’t miss the Above/Below feature article for a few of our top picks, coming Sunday morning

Game notes are updated during the week and initially posted as “work in progress” as they take a long time to create, if teams are missing notes simply check back later in the day/week and they should be updated.


2025 Week 4 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stack Rankings

The following stack rankings were created by pairing each team quarterback with his top three scoring options, whether they are three wide receivers, two wide receivers and a tight end, a wide receiver, tight end, and running back, or any viable combination. In some cases, an expensive running back can push the overall price point of his team stack in the value rankings.

TEAMOPPFD$FDpRankFDvalRankDK$DkpRankDKvalRankVegas
DETCIN$32,400112$27,3001121
INDLV$28,90021$23,600222
PHIDEN$29,90046$25,300377
LACWAS$29,30033$23,800443
DALNYJ$27,30054$23,600583
NYJDAL$27,20078$20,100619
MIACAR$25,70062$22,100768
CINDET$29,900818$24,70081619
LVIND$26,7001110$23,20091014
SEATB$28,000916$23,10010116
TBSEA$26,60099$23,800111515
NONYG$25,200127$20,40012310
ARITEN$25,1001411$21,1001395
HOUBAL$25,7001313$21,700141413
WASLAC$25,3001515$22,200151911
NYGNO$24,6001614$20,900161317
CARMIA$22,800175$18,40017512
DENPHI$26,5001919$21,200181817
BALHOU$27,3001820$21,500192016
TENARI$23,0002017$18,900201720

Week 4 DraftKings & FanDuel NFL DFS Stacks & Optimizer Groups

Overview

Rules and limits are powerful tools for lineup creation for NFL DFS where our primary focus is creating highly correlated lineups via stacking players from the same game. Lineups will typically be coordinated around the quarterback selection, which informs at least one pass-catcher choice, establishes a budget, eliminates a defense, and sets the tone for the lineup. We will typically look to correlate a quarterback and at least one of his pass-catchers in every lineup, with many of those including a skill player from the opposing team. This player is included to support the stack in a high-scoring game that drives offense on both sides, creating additional correlated scoring potential. Stacking multiple pass-catchers in the same lineup is a sound approach, though there are typically overall ceilings on how much volume is available at any given position. While pass-catching running backs can be prioritized in stacks and group tools, including running backs who are not involved in the passing game is less important at this stage, they will fall naturally into shares as needed. High-volume backs and pass catchers out of the backfield can be included in the groups utilized below, but it is frequently not necessary to do so with the very best players, they arrive in lineups without help.

Rules and limits are typically applied in an optimizer’s Advanced Options menu. Notes are included to illustrate the reasons behind each rule and explain what it does during the lineup creation process. These settings can typically be saved for re-use, which is highly recommended. Saving the groups created below is also a good idea that will save time with updates instead of recreation each week. These groups are created manually, but most optimizers include automated group creators that can help accelerate the curation process.

DraftKings + FanDuel Settings & Advanced Options

Note – Terminology may vary from site to site but these are common functions across most industry tools.

Unique Players Per Lineup– This setting forces the optimizer to utilize at least X new players who were not in Lineup 1 when it creates Lineup 2, and so on. We recommend a setting of at least two unique players, more can be applied depending on the degree of differentiation desired within lineups.

Team Salary– a minimum or maximum salary spend can be applied here as needed, although leaving salary on the table is an easy path toward creating unique lineups while not necessarily making a negative expected value play.

FLEX position– allows restrictions on what positions can be rostered at the FLEX spot. The primary position to restrict is the tight end so that lineups do not include two players from the position. In many industry tools this is a separate option via a checkbox, it can also be handled specifically within groups.

Global Exposure Settingallows caps on the maximum percentage of lineups a player can appear in within a given pool of lineup construction. This is a powerful tool for shaping lineups but if settings are too low, attempts to build a full set will fall short due to a lack of available players, one of the most common errors in optimizer building. Most optimizers include the ability to calculate ownership caps continuously or at the end of the pool creation process. If caps are calculated continuously, a player with a 25% cap who is utilized in Lineup 1 will not be available for use again until Lineup 5, we recommend turning OFF continuous calculation.

Randomness – provides a random multiplier to each player’s projected point total based on the set values. This valuable tool helps differentiate lineups instead of simply creating them in order of the highest median projected scores. Using some randomness for lineup generation is strongly recommended but the degree to which it is applied is down to personal preference, 15-25% is fine to get started. We suggest heavier randomness to more event-based players like wide receivers while tracking volume-based positions like running backs more toward their median or ceiling projections.

DraftKings + FanDuel Team Stack Rules

This set of rules will force optimizers to build lineups with certain combinations. We are looking to stack at least one skill player, almost always a pass-catcher, with his quarterback while frequently playing a skill player from the opposing team in the lineup. The theory behind this build is that a high-scoring stack will require some response from the opposing team to deliver a ceiling score in most situations. Most optimizers utilize a “complete the sentence” approach for rule creation with selections from drop-down menus following a very straightforward logic. Exceptions to these rules can be added for specific teams and players on most optimizer products.

  • QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It is fine to set this to two or to utilize two versions of this rule, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can also refine this via Groups)
  • optional – QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from the Opposing Team (we typically prefer the pass-catchers but high-volume running backs can be effective here)
  • QB with at most zero DST from the Same Team (this is a personal preference; high-scoring teams and quarterbacks tend to leave their defenses on the field, exposing them to simple point-scoring negatives)

Limits & Custom Rules and Requirements

Limit rules can be applied to restrict certain combinations from coming together. This is powerful for limiting multiple running backs from the same team or getting overweight to a certain stack within a lineup.

  • Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
  • Limit RB/WR/TE from the Same Team to one unless paired with QB from the Same Team OR the Opposing Team (this prevents multiple players from a team that is not a primary quarterback-based stack)
  • optional – Limit RB from Same Team to one (we can also do this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s a personal preference for NFL DFS, we typically do not want two pass-catchers from the same team without their quarterback)

We will maintain the list of rules and limits throughout the season, with occasional tweaks. Each week sees another fresh crop of value plays as situations change and injuries create opportunities around the league. These changing roles and emergent value plays are accounted for in creating these groups from week to week. After a large pool of lineups is created utilizing these groups, it is still critical to filter them for factors including ceiling projections and leverage potential. These groups should help ensure that a highly correlated premium set of options that rotates through various combinations is utilized to create the full lineup pool.

Sunday Updates

Any changes and recommended boosts to specific players will be provided in an early morning update each Sunday.


NFL DFS Week 4 Features & Projections

 


Construction Concept

Team groups are built by utilizing the quarterback as the KEY player in group settings. The quarterback decision is the driving factor in determining which stack the lineup utilizes and which corresponding plays are made to work within the structured requirements. In Fantasy Cruncher, built to specification, each team will have two groups, a team group, and an opponent group, both of which utilize the same quarterback as the key player. Each game will have a total of four groups. This is the best approach to truly capture the requirement of playing individual “run-back” plays from the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to include all of the skill players from a game in each quarterback’s group and rely on rules and limits to restrict any potential overflow. It is highly recommended to save the early season groups as a foundation that will be updated for the rest of the season. The recommended groups will include skill players who have an active role in their offense and provide significant correlation with their quarterback’s scoring, often bell-cow running backs who do not specialize in the passing game will not be included in groups as they are projected highly and appear on their own in basically correct distributions, while also not always providing the strongest positive correlation plays. Stacking quarterbacks with pass-catchers and allowing running backs to fall into the lanes created by settings, available salary, and randomness should create a well-distributed set of quality lineups. These groups are updated weekly to account for changes in utilization, schemes, injuries, target shares, and more.

Team Groups for DraftKings & FanDuel – Week 4

The goal is to create a large pool of well-built lineups that can be utilized in any large-field GPP contest. Our approach is to build far more lineups than needed and utilize a sorting table or sim process to filter to the best set of entries. The lineups created in these crunches should provide a broad distribution that includes some of the lower-owned high-upside skill players from each stack. Applying boosts is critical in pushing and pulling ownership to individual players within their team’s stacked lineups if they appear too much or too little.

The groups below are designed so that each quarterback will have two groups to create, one with his skill players and another with the opposing team. A more basic approach would be to add them all to one large group with an “at least three” and let rules and limits set things, but there is a more granular level of control in creating them separately.

Utilizing two groups also allows us to place running backs into the “run-back” position in certain teams while not including them in the primary stack for their team. This is useful when a situation has an extremely highly projected running back that does not necessarily fit into his team’s passing game. These players are threaded throughout the following construction recommendations.

Note for all optimizers the rules can be utilized to force bring-back plays in some sets of crunches and turned off for others as a global function instead of changing each group to “exactly one” bring-back play, wherever applicable, but it will apply to all teams.

 


Atlanta Falcons

Game Total: 43.5 / ATL +2.0 (20.75)

Offense: 45.0% rush / 55.0% pass /  14.0 ppg / 4.6 ypa rush / 6.0 ypa pass

oppDEF: 3.7 ypa rush / 7.7 ypa pass / 19.5 ppg / 8.49% sack / 0.0% int

Key Player: Michael Penix Jr.

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts Sr., Darnell Mooney, Tyler Allgeier (on/off), Ray-Ray McCloud III, Casey Washington (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Deebo Samuel, Zach Ertz, Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Luke McCaffrey, Chris Rodriguez, Jaylin Lane, Jeremy McNichols

Game Notes: 

Quarterback

The Falcons check in fresh off a disappointing Week 3 loss that buried our expectations for DFS production. Among the biggest culprits was second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. who managed just 172 yards on 18-36 passing with zero touchdowns and a pair of interceptions. Overall, Penix has managed to throw for 6.1 yards per pass attempt over 33.0 attempts per game in three contests in which he has just one touchdown pass and two interceptions. Penix has a -7.8 CPOE that makes him a rough play and a challenge for this Falcons offense to overcome for quality DFS production. The Quarterback slots into Week 4 as QB18 by points on both sites, he is QB17 by value on DraftKings and QB16 by value on FanDuel and is a limited option against a defense that has allowed passing yards but has also racked up early sacks.

Running Backs

Bijan Robinson projects for another strong week despite a Washington defense that is currently sitting seventh with 3.7 yards allowed per rush attempt over the season’s first three weeks. Robinson has enjoyed plenty of early opportunities, carrying the ball 15.7 times per game for 5.1 yards per rush attempt and posting a solid average of 6.5 targets to put him over 20 potential touches each week. The versatile running back carried the ball just 13 times in the team’s ugly loss last weekend, gaining 72 yards and adding 39 more on 5-6 receiving over 36 routes run. Robinson is a heavy volume back with skills in all facets of the game, he has drawn three targets in the red zone in early season action and has a receiving touchdown to show for it. Robinson’s primary limitation is likely the play of teammates around him in this offense, he has been over 100 yards from scrimmage in every game, including 100 receiving yards in Week 1 and 143 rushing yards on a whopping 22 carries in Week 2. Robinson is RB2 by points and RB10 by value on DraftKings, he shows slightly more blue site value as RB2/RB7.

Tyler Allgeier slots in as a touchdown-poaching threat to Robinson and a capable second-string running back who stands to touch the ball 10 times in any given game. Allgeier has a rushing touchdown on the board already this season and gains 3.9 yards per rush attempt over 9.0 carries per game in Weeks 1-3. The running back is not much more than a mixer, he slots in as RB29/29 and RB28/27 across sites, he is a dart throw option at a cheap touchdown on limited action.

Receivers & Tight Ends

Drake London looks to provide steady quality as the top option in the Falcons’ passing game. London has drawn 9.5 targets per game over three weeks, hauling in 5.3 catches per game over his 35.3 routes run for 1.5 yards per route run on the season. The receiver has failed to hit paydirt but has drawn two red zone targets and a 27.47% air yards share on his 8.6-yard ADOT. London is WR7 by points but WR1 by value on the DraftKings slate, he is WR12 by points and WR15 by value on FanDuel where receptions count slightly less.

Darnell Mooney is a popular option around the industry this week. The number two receiver in the offense checks in as WR38/36 and WR37/40 across sites, entirely playable but hardly priority range. Mooney missed Week 1 but saw mostly full action the past two weeks, delivering six total catches for 64 total yards in two games while failing to score. The receiver operates on a big-play-adjacent 11.0-yard average depth of target, good for a 24.23% air yards share over his 5.0 targets per game and he should have been better than four catches for 44 yards considering the 11 targets he received in Week 3. Mooney has only seen a 53.33% catchable ball rate on his deep targeting so far, part of the problem with the young quarterback at the helm, he will continue to be a hit and miss depth option.

Kyle Pitts Sr. draws 6.5 targets per game and has returned 7.1 yards per target or 1.3 yards per route run on the season. The tight end has failed to find the end zone over three contests, though a lack of red zone targets could be the culprit in his case. Pitts draws a 12.86% air yards share in the offense, he is a productive tight end who can make catches down the field and he has a team-leading 84.21% catchable throw rate from Penix, if he can fall into the end zone he should be able to produce a fair day of fantasy scoring here and there through the season. In Week 4, Pitts is TE9 by points and TE3 by value on DraftKings, on FanDuel he is TE8/6.

Ray-Ray McCloud III ranks outside of the top-50 across the board on both sites, he is a skilled dart throw who can post yards after the catch and break plays. McCloud has seen just an 11.5% target share over 24.7 routes run per game and has drawn a team-low 41.67% catchable throw rate, but he has produced with 8.9 yards after the catch per reception to post 1.0 yards per route run. McCloud even has a red zone target to add a slight touch of upside, though he exists mostly as a last man in for Atlanta stacks.

The Falcons are Stack 10 by points and Stack 11 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 11 across the board on the FanDuel slate. The team is bolstered somewhat by quality skill players, with their quarterback not playing particularly well and grading out for another mixed performance, despite facing a lousy defense, Falcons skill players might be deployed best as one-off options in other lineups or bring-back plays in stacks of Commanders, though they also are just a middling stack this week

 


Baltimore Ravens

Game Total: 48.0 /BAL -2.5 (25.25)

Offense: 43.95% rush / 56.05% pass / 37.0 ppg / 5.3 ypa rush / 9.5 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.0 ypa rush / 6.6 ypa pass / 18.7 ppg / 7.37% sack / 2.27% int

Key Player: Lamar Jackson

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds) / at most two (this allows for “naked” Lamar Jackson builds)

Team Group: Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, Isaiah Likely, DeAndre Hopkins, Derrick Henry (on/off), Justice Hill (on/off), Tylan Wallace (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce, Hollywood Brown, Tyquan Thornton, Isiah Pacheco (on/off), Kareem Hunt (on/off), Noah Gray (on/off, large field)

Game Notes: 

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson is among the class of the position again this week, ranking as QB2 by points on both sites. He slips to QB15 by value at a high $7,500 on DraftKings but slots in as QB6 by value on FanDuel at $8,700. The hyper-productive quarterback has thrown for 240.6 yards per game early this season, posting a massive 9.6 yards per pass attempt over just 25.0 tries per game. Jackson adds quality to the low-volume excellence by picking up another 5.0 opportunities per game on the ground, gaining 7.9 yards per rush attempt. The quarterback has a rushing touchdown on the board and has thrown for a league-leading nine touchdowns over three game. By comparison, Sam Darnold and Kyler Murray now have five and six respectively in their four games played. Jackson has a completion percentage 8.1 points above expectation, good for third-best on the slate, and he has a strong set of pass-catchers to work with in the team’s efficient offense. In Week 3, the quarterback was tightly efficient and productive, as usual, posting 288 yards with three touchdown passes on 21-27 passing while gaining another 35 yards on the ground over seven carries. Jackson is a tremendous weekly option and is one of the few truly playable standalone quarterbacks, though we typically prefer to buy correlated pass-catchers along with him.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry has been held in check somewhat over the past two games, following a huge Week 1 performance. The veteran wrecking ball was held off the board almost entirely in Week 2 with just 11 carries for 23 yards over 34 snaps, he bounced back last week with 50 yards on just 12 carries, scoring a touchdown in the process. Henry carried the ball 18 times and drew a target in Week 1 for his heaviest involvement, he is ready, willing, and able to return to that volume on any given slate and he can at worst typically make value with less, particularly at a fair price on both sites in Week 4. For the early portion of the 2025 season, Henry gains a massive 5.9 yards per rush attempt over 13.7 carries per game with a 12.2% explosive rush rate. The running back gains a full 1.5 yards over expectation per rushing attempt, he has three touchdown runs on the season and is just getting started with production. The Ravens will face a rush defense that has been hanging on up front with 4.0 yards allowed per rush attempt, he should be able to gouge them for a fair chunk more each time he carries the ball. Henry is a go-to option as RB10/12 on DraftKings and RB5/12 on FanDuel.

Justice Hill slots in just inside the top-40 across the board at running back, he is a loosely viable dart throw at about 10 potential touches between the ground game and passing attack. Hill carries the ball just 1.7 times per game but sees steady opportunities on passing downs with 3.0 targets per game and an average of 15 routes run. Hill is simply a mixer unless something occurs above him on the depth chart but he is a steady presence in the offense and a light threat to poach a touchdown, though he is yet to see a red zone opportunity.

Receivers & Tight Ends

Zay Flowers leads a productive group of pass catchers that has seen six different receivers bring in touchdowns over Lamar Jackson’s nine touchdown passes. Flowers has just one of those catches but he has drawn a team-leading 30.7% target share with 8.0 opportunities per game on a 10.2-yard average depth of target pushing him to a 30.65% air yards share. The receiver gains a terrific 2.7 yards per route run on 29.0 routes per game, he is an outstanding option who works deep down the field where big scoring plays happen. Flowers is a high-priority receiver within stacks of Ravens, he had 143 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 but has been less productive in the two subsequent games, expectations for a quick turnaround should be high for WR11/28 on DraftKings and WR5/12 on FanDuel, he loses a slight amount of ground to a handful of receivers on the full PPR site but remains a go-to option and a priority in stacking Baltimore.

Mark Andrews has been on the board for scoring as well, putting up a pair of early touchdowns over limited action with three targets per game overall but six last week. Andrews drew two targets in the red zone in Week 2 and another one last week, he is a top priority when it comes time to score for this team. The tight end converted the red zone chance and posted a productive 91 yards with another touchdown in his Week 3 game, he had just two catches for seven yards over the first two games. Andrews is better than a touchdown-dependent tight end, he should continue to see steady volume that improves upon his current 13.3% target share, and he will have consistent scoring chances on an almost weekly basis. The touchdown potential alone is a reason to keep Andrews in mind at the position as a one-off, he is a top option in stacking Ravens and functions well in a Jackson + 1 or +2 stack. Andrews is TE10 by points on both sites, he is TE13 by value on DraftKings and TE8 by value on FanDuel.

Rashod Bateman and DeAndre Hopkins are mix-in options who rank from the mid-40s into the 50s across both sites for both points and value among receivers, they are both almost certainly better for +2 depth in stacks of Ravens than as standalone plays. With only so many chances to go around in the efficient Ravens offense and higher-priority mouths to feed, Bateman has still seen a steady stream of targets with 5.0 per game and 7.0 last week. Bateman gains 1.2 yards per route run over 24 routes per contest, posting a steady 5.9 yards per target on his 11.2-yard average depth of target for 21.84% of the team’s air yards, though he has drawn just a 66.67% catchable ball rate on those chances from Jackson. Bateman slightly outranks Hopkins despite the latter outscoring him with two touchdowns to Bateman’s lone score on the season. Hopkins got into the end zone in each of the season’s first two games but has drawn a limiting 8.0% target share on just 9.3 routes per game, his involvement is minimal but the team  has looked for him when the end zone is looming, giving him an important role for cheap scoring potential on any given slate. Hopkins ranks around WR50 across the board, he is not much more than a value dart at a touchdown.

Isaiah Likely is currently questionable to play but would round out the Ravens offense with a cheap second-string tight end who sees frequent involvement in the passing game. Likely was good in filling in for Andrews while the veteran was out last season, scoring six times on 42 catches over 56 targets and racking up 477 yards or 8.2 per target. If Likely is on the field he is yet another dart at a cheap touchdown in this offense, though he would remain only a low priority play within stacks.

The Ravens are Stack 7 by points on DraftKings but they slip to Stack 17 by points-per-dollar scoring with Jackson taking a dip in the value column at a hefty salary. The team grades out better across the board on the FanDuel slate, where they are Stack 4 by points and Stack 6 by value. Jackson and Henry are high priority options in any lineup configuration, while Zay Jones and Mark Andrews are playable in standalone situations but likely somewhat better in stacks.

 


Buffalo Bills

Game Total: 47.5 / BUF -15.5 (31.5)

Offense: 49.03% rush / 50.97% pass / 34.0 ppg / 4.8 ypa rush / 7.8 ypa pass

oppDEF: 3.6 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass / 30.0 ppg / 8.25% sack / 0.0% int

Key Player: Josh Allen

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Joshua Palmer, Ty Johnson (on/off), Ray Davis (on/off), Dawson Knox (on/off), Elijah Moore (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson, Brandin Cooks

Game Notes: 

Quarterback

Josh Allen leads a premium Bills attack that ranks as a top-5 scoring stack once again in Week 4. The Bills are among the top offenses in football with Allen as a top-ranked quarterback seemingly every week. Allen has thrown five touchdown passes with zero interceptions while completing 70.0% of his passes, 1.0 points over expectation. Allen throws for 251.7 yards per game and has a 300-yard day on his ledger already with 394 yards on 33-46 passing against Baltimore in a Week 1 shootout. While Allen is unlikely to have to go to those lengths to beat a pushover New Orleans squad, he should produce significant fantasy scoring against a defense that checks in allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt with zero interceptions over three games this year. Allen has strong pass-catchers in the offense and this team stacks in a variety of configurations depending on need and value. The quarterback adds productivity with his legs, gaining 4.8 yards per rush attempt on 8.0 carries per game, adding a pair of early rushing touchdowns. Allen is an indisputably high-quality option in this contest, the question simply becomes how much will the Bills even need in a game that sees them favored by a massive 15.5? Allen is QB1 by points on both sites by a fair margin, he is QB11 by value on DraftKings but stays highly rated as QB3 on FanDuel.

Running Backs

James Cook III is a highly-rated running back on the Week 4 slate, despite facing a New Orleans defense that has checked running backs to just 3.6 yards per rush attempt to rank fifth on the season in YPA. Cook is a high-volume running back who sees 17.7 carries per game early in 2025, producing excellent results with 5.4 yards per rush attempt and scoring four times on the ground over three games. Cook has gained an excellent 1.6 yards above expectation per attempt this season, posting a solid 3.0 efficiency mark as a north-south rusher who adds upside with 3.0 targets per game in the passing attack. Cook has yet to hit paydirt on a reception but he gains 7.9 yards per target and has made the most of his chances with a 13.21% explosive play rate on receptions. Cook is an excellent option who rates as RB5 by points and RB4 by value on DraftKings, he is RB4 by points and RB10 by value on the FanDuel slate and is a top option at the position both in and out of stacks.

Ray Davis and Ty Johnson are limited options at the backup running back position with 27.0% of the snaps going to Davis and 32% going to Johnson overall, but a 25%-7% split in Johnson’s favor last week, with Davis playing a mere four snaps with the offense and failing to touch the ball. The two running backs are both involved in the passing and rushing games, but they barely rate inside the top-40 at running back and are low-probability options for a touchdown. Davis has yet to make an explosive run and gains 1.4 yards after contact per attempt, while Johnson has a 14.29% explosive rush rate and gains 2.6 yards after contact per attempt. Between the two, we lean slightly toward Johnson.

Receivers & Tight Ends

Khalil Shakir slightly outpaces his similarly projected counterpart in this passing attack but either is a steady reliable scoring option and both are easily in play in Allen +2 stacks of Bills. Shakir comes in with middling production over three weeks, posting a mere 40.3 yards per game with 8.1 yards per target or 1.3 yards per route run over 30.7 opportunities per game. Shakir sees reliable targeting in the offense, drawing five targets on average, and he has already seen a significant four chances in the red zone, with one touchdown reception for the season. Overall, Shakir has operated on a 6.7-yard average depth of target as more of an underneath option, he has posted a steady 7.0 yards after the catch per reception, 0.4 YAC over expectation per reception. The receiver should continue to see a steady run of scoring opportunities and targets as the team works its way down the field, he is part of the offense’s elite efficiency for scoring and yardage, if not the explosive side. Shakir is WR25/24 on DraftKings and WR27/21 on FanDuel at a fair price on both sites.

Keon Coleman has operated as the deeper target in the offense, drawing a 9.4-yard ADOT for 27.77% of the team’s air yards over his team-leading 6.5 targets per game and .19 targets per route run. Coleman has found the end zone once on the season and has drawn an excellent 83.33% catchable ball rate on his chances from Allen. The receiver is a premium option in the passing attack, his 1.63 yards per route run outpace Shakir’s 1.32, though both fall short of the team-leading marks held by the tight ends.

Dalton Kincaid is the top option at the tight end spot in this offense, he plays 51.0% of the snaps on average while Dawson Knox is in for 52.0% but Kincaid runs 24.3 routes per game to Knox’s 17.3, outdrawing the backup with 0.22 targets per route run to 0.18, and he has two touchdowns to lead the group of pass-catchers. Kincaid has drawn 17.0% of the team’s air yards on a 16.5% target share in the offense, he is TE8 by points and TE11 by value on DraftKings and TE9/10 on the FanDuel board. Knox is a value dart as TE29/28 and TE29/29 but he has weekly scoring potential with one red zone target in the books already and 2.0 targets per game on the season. Knox is involved near the end zone which is easily the most valuable attribute he could have as a cheap low-volume tight end.

Joshua Palmer is a distant third option at wide receiver but he has big play potential with a 25.0% explosive play rate on receptions this season. Palmer draws a 13.4% target share and a 61.54% catchable ball rate on a team-leading 12.8-yard ADOT for a 24.76% air yards share. The receiver has managed 1.45 yards per route run over 26.0 routes per game, though he has yet to find the end zone he has seen two chances in the red zone and has been involved in the team’s plans early in the season. Palmer was limited to just one catch for five yards in Week 3, those low-end performances will happen, but he posted 47 yards on two catches over three targets in Week 2 and had a big 61-yard day on 5-9 receiving in Week 1. Palmer will continue to be a hit-and-miss option but he has visible ceiling as a +2 man in stacks of Bills. The receiver is WR46/44 on DraftKings and WR47/51 on the FanDuel slate this week.

The Bills are an ultra-efficient high-scoring offense that will likely walk away with this game in the first half, their own early scoring could hamper their true ceiling to some degree, but making value on the Vegas board will put them easily among the higher-scoring stacks of the day and the team offers a wide range of playable options. Allen is a priority at his position and functions best in stacks with correlated scorers, Cook is an involved running back who works in or out of stacks, Shakir, Coleman, and Palmer are playable receivers, and the team has a pair of touchdown-upside tight ends at different price points with different targeting expectations. Buffalo is a highly-playable Stack 5 by points on both sites, they are Stack 12 by value on DraftKings but Stack 4 by value on FanDuel where several of the skill players are too cheap.

 


Carolina Panthers

Game Total: 43.0 / CAR +5.5 (18.75)

Offense: 38.34% rush / 61.66% pass / 20.7 ppg / 3.7 ypa rush / 5.3 ypa pass

oppDEF: 2.8 ypa rush / 9.2 ypa pass / 22.7 ppg / 9.18% sack / 3.37% int

Key Player: Bryce Young

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Tetairoa McMillan (Q, expected), Chuba Hubbard (Q, expected; on/off), Hunter Renfrow, Rico Dowdle (on/off), Tommy Tremble, Brycen Tremayne (large field), David Moore (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, Hunter Henry, TreVeyon Henderson (on/off), DeMario Douglas, Rhamondre Stevenson (on/off), Mack Hollins

Game Notes: 

Quarterback

Bryce Young and his Panthers draw an interesting matchup against a sieve of a pass defense that has allowed 9.2 yards per pass attempt early in the 2025 campaign. New England checks in with an OK pass rush that has generated a 9.18% sack rate (9) and 3.37% interception rate (3) early this season, though they are allowing a mid-ranked 22.7 points and 316 yards per game. New England is a reasonable target but Young has performed poorly to start the season and has not looked great in the early stages of his NFL career in general. The quarterback threw for just 2,403 yards and 15 touchdowns with nine interceptions in 14 games last season, following up a 16-game rookie campaign in which he threw for 2,877 yards with 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Young did not add much on the ground in his rookie season but he was solid with 5.8 yards per rush attempt for 249 yards and six touchdowns last season. So far this year, the quarterback has regressed with just 5.3 yards per pass and 5.6 yards per rush attempt, with four touchdown passes and another touchdown on a rush attempt, but also three interceptions and limited production with a CPOE mark of -5.2 and limited depth of target at just 6.8 intended air yards per attempt. Young ranks among the bottom few across most advanced and basic metrics, but he has volume against a pass defense that has allowed productivity, which could be enough at a cheap price. The quarterback has thrown the ball 38.0 times per game over three contests, though some of that is goosed by 55 attempts in Week 2. Young completed 35 of those 55 passes for a solid 328 yards with three touchdowns and an interception in easily his best game of the year against the Cardinals, he could be in for a repeat performance this week. The quarterback checks in as QB14 by points but QB3 by value on DraftKings, he is QB14/9 on the FanDuel slate.

Running Backs

Chuba Hubbard gains just 3.9 yards per rush attempt over 14.3 carries per game on the season and has a low-end 2.33% explosive rush rate over three games with -0.2 yards over expectation per attempt and a 0.00% broken tackle rate. The running back is involved in the passing game, he draws 4.5 targets per game, including three chances in the red zone already this season, and has come away with a pair of receiving touchdowns while failing to score on the ground. Hubbard is a straight-line runner who sees a fair potential touch mark each week, he is not a top-end running back but remains easily playable as a secondary option or a flex play in lineups from site to site. Hubbard is a high-priority for correlated scoring in stacks with Young, his involvement in the passing game, particularly in the red zone, puts him on the board for stacking somewhat more than more rush-focused running backs. Hubbard is RB13 by points and RB9 by value on DraftKings, he is RB13/11 on the FanDuel slate, but he was added to the injury report late on Thursday and was a limited practice participant on Friday, leaving him questionable to play on Sunday.

Rico Dowdle would fill in for Hubbard and become an instant priority play at the running back spot on both sites. Dowdle has been limited over his first three games with the Panthers, carrying the ball a total of 19 times, but he did see an uptick from three to six then to 10 carries, while drawing just limited opportunities in the passing game but at least one target per contest. He got into the end zone for a cheap low-owned touchdown in Week 3, posting 30 yards on 10 total carries, four of which were in the red zone. In limited action, the running back has gained just 2.7 yards per attempt with no explosive runs, but he is a high-end running back who gained 1,079 yards on 235 yards with Dallas (4.6 YPA) just last season. Dowdle is interesting as a touchdown-dependent value dart if Hubbard plays, he will climb the board for value if the starter is out. As things currently stand he is just RB27/27 and RB29/26 across sites.

Receivers & Tight Ends

Tetairoa McMillan is also questionable for Sunday with a calf strain, though he reportedly plans to play as of Friday night. The rookie 1st round pick has shown his quality early in 2025, putting up a 100-yard game in Week 2 and coming away with steady targeting on regular routes, though he has failed to score. McMillan saw a pair of red zone targets in Week 2 and one last week, it is only a matter of time before he drops into the end zone with the ball secured. The 8th overall pick in this year’s draft has seen a premium 24.3% target share on a 9.8-yard average depth of target for a 39.92% air yards share that means little cast against a limiting 59.26% catchable target rate. McMillan is simply seeing poor throws from a limited quarterback, there is more than enough talent to deliver DFS scoring on a regular basis and the receiver has posted 2.0 yards per route run in spite of the ugly throws. The receiver should be the lead option in the offense with a steady first-read rate against the New England coverage, he lands as a ceiling-based WR6 by points on both sites and is WR2 by value on DraftKings and WR1 by value on FanDuel this week. McMillan is a strong buy at a fair price but he is highly reliant on quality from his quarterback, a shaky at best proposition.

Hunter Renfrow ranks outside the top-40 by points but as WR30 and WR36 across DraftKings and FanDuel respectively by value. Renfrow is the team’s low-end number two option in the passing game, more so with several options out of action or banged-up going into Week 4. The receiver has seen an average of 6.5 targets per game and 0.2 targets per route run over 31.0 routes per game, producing a less-than-stellar 21.7 yards per game or 3.4 per target, though he is tied for the team lead with two touchdown catches. Renfrow is not much more than a value dart on either site, he plays up in stacking situations with Young +2 builds, though those may be less appealing than skinny stacks and Renfrow probably slots in below Hubbard by priority in any build.

Tommy Tremble will fill in for Ja’Tavion Sanders after picking up the primary action after Sanders left last week’s game. Tremble ran 11 routes over 33 snaps with the offense, picking up two targets and hauling them both in for a modest 16 yards. The tight end had 20 yards on three catches over 19 routes and 33 snaps with the offense in his typical backup role the week before, he should see a slight uptick in opportunities and has already drawn a red zone target while seeing a 100% catchable ball rate to this point. Tremble is a low-probability mixer at the position and lower-priority play in stacks as TE27 across the board on both sites.

Carolina plays up for a bit of value in an interesting spot for the passing attack, if Bryce Young from Week 2 shows up we could be in business for a cheap stack that can find some bonus scoring potential and some big play upside, if he is his typical self he will drag everyone down around him. The team lives and dies with their young quarterback, Carolina is Stack 16 by points but Stack 5 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 14 by points but Stack 3 by value on the FanDuel slate in Week 4

 


Chicago Bears

Game Total: 48.0 / CHI +1.0 (23.5)

Offense: 44.57% rush / 55.43% pass / 25.3 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 7.7 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.5 ypa rush / 7.8 ypa pass / 24.7 ppg / 6.93% sack / 1.06% int

Key Player: Caleb Williams

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Rome Odunze, DJ Moore, D’Andre Swift (Q, likely; on/off), Olamide Zaccheaus, Luther Burden III, Cole Kmet, Colston Loveland (on/off), Kyle Monangai (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Ashton Jeanty, Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, Dont’e Thornton Jr.

Game Notes: Colston Loveland is OUT

Quarterback

Caleb Williams has seen a steadily improving projection as the week has drawn closer to Sunday. The Chicago quarterback has been a mixed bag of a performer to start 2025, he posted a monster performance as a highly-touted option against Dallas last week, throwing for 298 yards and four touchdowns on 19-28 passing, but was less impressive over the season’s first two matchups. In Week 1 against Minnesota, Williams threw for just 210 yards with a single touchdown but added another score and 58 yards on six rush attempts. He threw for two touchdowns but dropped an interception into the mix in Week 2, completing 19 of 30 pass attempts for 6.9 yards per attempt but failing to add much on the ground. Williams is in another soft matchup this week, Las Vegas has yielded 7.8 yards per pass attempt while managing just one interception over three games and they generate just a 17.6% pressure rate. The quarterback has seven touchdown passes against the one interception for the season, on the surface things look solid, particularly when one checks his DFS scoring average, but Williams has also been below average in several advanced metrics including a CPOE that sits 8.7 points below expectation. Williams has plenty of talent, thus plenty of room for improvement, the quarterback has already posted four 300-yard performances in his career, all last season, and he just missed his fifth last week. Williams is a premium quarterback option with all of the skills needed to produce significant fantasy scoring, he slots in as QB9 by points on DraftKings and QB10 by points on FanDuel and dips to QB12 and QB14 respectively by value but could play beyond those marks for ceiling potential.

Running Backs

D’Andre Swift was one of the first mentions in the Below section of Sunday’s Above/Below and he delivered a fairly lousy performance, though he did manage to total 78 yards from scrimmage. Swift gained 33 yards on 13 carries, adding another 45 yards on three catches over 13 routes run. The running back gains just 3.5 yards per rush attempt and -0.5 yards per attempt over expectation. Swift has averages of just 2.2 yards before and 1.4 yards after contact per attempt with a 2.38% broken-tackle rate and a 7.14% explosive rush rate. The running back has one touchdown on the ground and has not scored in the passing game despite three catches in each game. Swift has yet to rush for even 65 yards this season, he lacks explosive tendencies and is an inefficient runner who also failed to score on three red zone carries in Week 3. The Bears will be facing a somewhat compliant defense, Las Vegas has allowed 4.5 yards per rush attempt and they rank in the bottom half in stuff rate and missed tackle rate. Swift is a low-end RB17/14 on both sites, he is fine as a second running back or flex play but limited as the lead option and he remains questionable but expected to play with a hip issue that has caused him to be limited in practices this week.

If Swift is unable to play we should see rookie Kyle Monangai ascend the board to take on a larger role in the offense. As things stand, the rookie is just outside of the top-40 at the running back position and is entirely uninteresting. Monangai has been a limited participant, carrying the ball a total of 13 times in three games. The running back played just nine snaps in Week 1 and his lone touch came on an 11-yard reception. He saw 28 snaps, his current career high, in Week 2 and carried the ball seven times for 28 yards while catching one of three targets for eight yards but not impacting the DFS scoreboard. Monangai played just 17 snaps last week and put up 16 yards on six carries with another four yards coming on his lone catch on eight routes run. The running back will be limited unless he steps into the spotlight in a start, in which case he will become a fairly popular value play as a buzzy draft season value-round name. Monangai has gained just 3.4 yards per attempt and not broken a tackle in the NFL in his limited action, expectations should be tempered even if he gets the starting nod.

Receivers & Tight Ends

Rome Odunze has been terrific starting year two. The receiver was drafted to play alongside Caleb Williams last year and the duo has come out of the gate firing in 2025, connecting for four early touchdowns and 75.7 yards per game over three contests. Odunze leads the team with a 28.4% target share on 36 routes per game, or 0.25 targets per route run. Odunze gains 2.10 yards per route run on a significant 12.5-yard average depth of target for a huge 42.79% air yards share, he is a major source of scoring potential who makes things happen after the catch just as effectively. Odunze gains 4.1 yards after the catch per reception, 0.4 yards per reception over expectation. The outstanding receiver is the go-to pairing with Williams shares, he works as an excellent standalone play in any lineup and shines alongside teammates in Williams +2 builds. Odunze is WR10 by points on DraftKings and WR9 by points on FanDuel, he dips somewhat for value at high pricing but remains one of the top options at the position on either site in any format.

DJ Moore slots in as a potentially disregarded or under-appreciated WR23/27 and WR25/26 across sites. The veteran has been second-fiddle to Odunze over three games but that has not rendered him irrelevant. Moore has a touchdown on the board while drawing a 19.7% air yards share on a 10.0-yard ADOT over his 16.8% target share. The receiver gets down the field as a premium big play target with major any-given-slate scoring potential, he has one red zone target but will spike for more as the season progresses. Moore gains a steady 1.31 yards per route run over his 34.3 route per game, he is a significant member of this passing attack who should not be forgotten and who can be pressed for additional ownership as the field leaves him on the shelf.

Oladmide Zaccheaus has seen just a 56.25% catchable ball rate, lowest among the top three wide receivers on this team, over his 16.8% target share. Zaccheaus draws most of his chances underneath, operating on a 7.7-yard ADOT and posting 4.9 yards per target with 3.9 yards after the catch per target, exactly on expectation. The receiver is a playable option to pad a bit of scoring in stacks of Bears but he is a lower-end play outside of stacks. Zaccheaus has two red zone targets that would certainly pad scoring but he failed to deliver on them and is an unreliable option in this offense. Zaccheaus is WR50 by points and WR47 by value on DraftKings and WR49/52 on FanDuel.

Hot draft season value round commodity Luther Burden III finally got involved in the offense in the team’s big Week 3 game. Burden had largely been on the shelf over the first two games, playing just 18 snaps and running 11 routes with one target that he caught for -3.0 yards in Week 1 and playing a dozen snaps with six routes and two targets in Week 2, gaining five yards on one catch. In Week 3 Burden stepped up to 17 snaps with the offense. The rookie caught three of three targets over his nine routes run, putting up a massive 101-yard day with a touchdown and an explosive play on a catch of more than 20 yards. Burden was highly touted for his skillset coming into and out of college, with mixed results in an injury-marred collegiate career, he has all the talent needed to produce at this level and could be in for another big week as volume continues to improve in what should be an aggressive pass game. Burden is a value option again this week as WR52/65 and WR57/59 but he has a path to upside again.

Cole Kmet and Colston Loveland are splitting tight end duties with Kmet out-snapping the rookie with an 82.0% share to 51.0% but both are on the field and involved. Kmet runs 28.7 routes per game to Loveland’s 16.3, though Loveland is targeted at a higher rate on his attempts and slightly outgains Kmet with a 0.88 yards per route run mark to Kmet’s 0.81. Both tight ends have operated well down the field in the offense, one of the deeper regular pattern sets for the position across the league with Kmet seeing an 11.3-yard ADOT and Loveland slotting in at 14.7 yards on average. Kmet has the lone touchdown between the two but both players have made explosive gains in the passing attack early and should continue to post interesting inexpensive fantasy scoring as long as they are seeing their numbers called on deep targets with consistency. The high-volume passing attack should scoop up chances for both tight ends to get involved, between the two we lean toward Kmet for the obvious abundance of chances until the rookie gains ground. Kmet is TE21/23 and TE20/21 across sites.

Update – Loveland is out and Kmet advances up the TE board on Sunday morning

The Bears currently sit as Stack 12 by points and Stack 15 by value on DraftKings and Stack 12/16 on FanDuel but they could climb several spots on a tight points board with minimal movement into the weekend, they are a team to watch and one to be sure to include in a variety of lineup builds, including +1 and +2 stack combinations. The Raiders offer several positional bring-back values as well, making the matchup even more appealing in stacks.

 


Cleveland Browns

Game Total: 44.5 / CLE +10.5 (17.0)

Offense: 32.5% rush / 67.5% pass / 15.3 ppg / 4.0 ypa rush / 5.0 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.2 ypa rush / 8.6 ypa pass / 26.0 ppg / 11.70% sack / 1.20% int

Key Player: Joe Flacco

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, Cedric Tillman, Harold Fannin Jr. (on/off), Quinshon Judkins (on/off), Jerome Ford (on/off), Isaiah Bond (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Isaac TeSlaa

Game Notes: 

Quarterback

Joe Flacco leads a bad Cleveland offense into action against a Detroit defense that has been in the middle of the pack against the run with 4.2 yards allowed per rush attempt and lousy with 8.6 yards allowed per pass attempt, though they have already managed an aggressive 11 sacks on the season. Detroit should be in line for a strong defensive performance, Flacco is passing for just 5.0 yards per attempt on 6.6 intended air yards per attempt with two touchdowns and four interceptions this season. The quarterback is technically 0.50 points above expectation by CPOE but that has not helped him to much of an average fantasy score. Only Dylan Sampson on a 7.8-yard ADOT has a catchable target rate from Flacco of better than 80%, in fact no one else is above 66.6%. Flacco adds no scoring potential on the ground, he is a limited play as QB20 by points on both sites, he remains QB20 by value on FanDuel but jumps up the board slightly as QB16 by value on DraftKings.

Running Backs

Quinshon Judkins has seized the starting running back job with two strong performances after finally signing with Cleveland. Judkins missed Week 1 and played just 19 snaps in Week 2 but he made the most of that opportunity with an excellent 61 yards over 10 carries and another 10 yards added on 3-3 receiving over eight routes. Judkins was rewarded in a big way last week, jumping to 36 snaps with the offense and carrying the ball 18 times with another two chances coming on targets over his 14 routes. Judkins did not disappoint, he gained 94 yards and scored a touchdown on the ground, though the reception went for just one yard. Judkins will continue to be the most interesting piece of this offense and could gain quality from here with a few additional potential touches each week in the changing of the guard in this offense. The running back has a 10.71% explosive rush rate with 3.9 yards after contact per rush attempt over the small sample, excellent marks to start a career. Judkins is RB20 by points and RB19 by value on DraftKings, he is RB18/18 on the FanDuel slate.

Jerome Ford is a low-end RB31/31 and RB33/31, he shows very little value but should serve as a passing down back and the second-string option at the position. Ford saw just 24 snaps last week and did not carry the ball. The running back ran a dozen routes over those plays, drawing four targets and catching them all but gaining merely 10 yards. Ford gained 23 yards on five catches over six targets and 24 routes in Week 2 but he was involved for 35 snaps prior to the emergence of Judkins in that game, expectations should be kept toward the Week 3 performance and Ford was never anything special at the position, he gains just 3.3 yards per rush attempt.

Dylan Sampson is likely to be a non-factor again, he fell to just five snaps with the offense last week.

Receivers & Tight Ends

Jerry Jeudy ranks as WR27/26 and WR31/33, he is playable but not nearly a priority option on either site. The receiver has been targeted seven times per game early in the season, good for an 18.1% rate but with just a 66.67% catchable ball rate his output has been limited to 44.7 yards per game and he has failed to score. Jeudy leads the team by a wide margin with a 39.17% air yards share and a 13.9-yard average depth of target, and he has a solid 20.0% explosive play rate, he is capable of breaking big gains even with a limited passer at the helm, but a lot of that equation does rely on Flacco’s ability to deliver more than Jeudy’s ability to get to where he is supposed to be while shaking coverage. The receiver has a 25.6% first read share in the offense, though he lacks a red zone target in addition to not scoring on the season. Jeudy will rise and fall with the quality of Flacco, he is loosely playable outside of stacks and would show more value as part of a low-owned low-cost combination with his quarterback, even in a skinny stack.

David Njoku is a playable tight end who is similarly hampered by lousy quarterback play. Njoku has seen a 6.3-yard average depth of target over 35.7 route run per game, pulling in .17 targets per route run for 1.09 yards per route run, matching Jeudy’s production in both categories. The tight end has not found the end zone and, like Jeudy, has not seen a red zone target in the offense, but he should remain one of Flacco’s first options in the passing game and a safety valve play call when it comes time to score. Njoku is TE4 by points and TE1 by value on DraftKings, he is TE7 by points and TE5 by value on FanDuel, his $3,800 price point is easily the best attribute across sites but he should benefit from game script in a contest against a team that has allowed passing yards and fantasy points to the position over three games. Njoku could be a quiet value play on this slate.

Cedric Tillman sees an average target of 8.6 yards for 23.54% of the team’s air yards and a pair of touchdowns on the season. The receiver has been decent to start the year after coming in with some draft buzz in season-long play. Tillman sees 0.15 targets per route run and returns 0.83 yards per route run over 40.3 routes per game, second on the team, while playing most of the snaps with the offense. Tillman has been steady with 5.6 yards per target, though his -0.5 yards after catch over expectation needs improvement. Tillman is a mixer for value in any lineup format at cheap pricing, he has a bit of scoring potential and lands as WR36 by points but WR18 by value on DraftKings and WR36/29 on FanDuel at a higher price.

Harold Fannin Jr. has been on the field for significant snap shares to start his Browns career, playing 81.0% of the snaps on average. Fannin has run routes on about two-thirds of those plays over the season’s first few weeks, seeing 0.22 targets per route run on 27.0 routes per game for a team-leading 1.68 yprr. Fannin Jr. has failed to put one in the end zone over his first three games but he does have a red zone target on the board and has drawn the most accurate passing by far from Flacco. Fannin is a mixed value play at the tight end spot and is worth a dart or two as TE15/16 and TE13/11 across sites.

The Browns are a low-end value stack when it comes to point-scoring potential but they gain ground in points-per-dollar views as Stack 21 by points but Stack 13 by value on DraftKings. The team lacks that value-based upside on the FanDuel slate where they are a straight line across the bottom of the board as Stack 22 out of 22.

 


Detroit Lions

Game Total: 44.5 /DET -10.5 (27.5)

Offense: 47.62% rush / 52.36% pass / 34.3 ppg / 5.0 ypa rush / 8.0 ypa pass

oppDEF: 2.3 ypa rush / 6.8 ypa pass / 22.7 ppg / 12.50% sack / 1.30% int

Key Player: Jared Goff

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Isaac TeSlaa, Kalif Raymond (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, Cedric Tillman, Harold Fannin Jr. (on/off), Quinshon Judkins (on/off), Jerome Ford (on/off)

Game Notes: 

Quarterback

Detroit is favored by 10.5 at home against a low-end Cleveland squad that should given them no troubles in terms of opposing scoring. What could come into play somewhat is Cleveland’s defense, which has been of high quality against the run to start the season. The Browns rank first in the NFL with just 2.3 yards allowed per rush attempt but they sit 18th with 6.8 yards allowed per pass and they have allowed 2.4 passing touchdowns per game while limiting rushing scores to 0.3 per game. The team has 11 sacks on the season on steady pressure to match the high-quality Lions defense on the other side of this game, they will keep quarterback Jared Goff on his toes to some degree, but Goff is a premium passer with some of the best weapons in football and a sturdy offensive line. The quarterback sits 10.8 points above expectation by CPOE while passing for 253.6 yards per game and 8.0 yards per attempt. Goff has seven touchdown passes against just one interception on the season while rating in the top-10 in CPOE, highly accurate throws, and catchable balls. If the idea is that the Browns stand a chance of stuffing the extremely high-quality Detroit rushing attack, we should see this passing game take flight in Week 4, bolstering the chances for a big day from Goff and his premium pass catchers. The quarterback is QB13 by points on both sites but slips to QB22 by value on DraftKings and QB19 by value on FanDuel, he would be pressed up the board for quality via pairing with his receivers.

Running Backs

Even against a defense that has been excellent in limiting opponents to just 2.3 yards per rush attempt and zero explosive runs over three games, top-shelf lead running back Jahmyr Gibbs checks in as RB4 by points and RB8 by value on DraftKings and RB6/6 on the FanDuel slate. Gibbs is outstanding, he gains 4.2 yards per rush attempt on 14.3 carries per game, though he has slipped to -0.6 yards per attempt below expectation this season. The running back has a 6.98% explosive run rate over three games, gaining just 1.2 yards per attempt after contact but punching the ball in for three rushing touchdowns and providing ongoing quality over 6.5 targets per game in the passing attack, giving him more than 20 potential touches per game and putting him in “magic number” territory for weekly volume. The touchdown scoring potential alone is worth playing the popular running back, particularly if over-thinking gamers go away from him for the quality that the Cleveland defense has shown, or the ongoing perception of an unplayable job share with David Montgomery.

The veteran, Montgomery, is always in play in addition to, but not alongside, Gibbs in DFS lineups. Montgomery manages to find quality game after game, year after year, with regular scoring on even limited carries. He has gained a ridiculous 6.9 yards per rush attempt over 11.3 carries per game with an 11.76% explosive rush rate early in 2025. Montgomery has three rushing touchdown on the season to match Gibbs’ output and he has been the more explosive of the two backs with 3.9 yards after contact per attempt. The veteran is coming off of a monster game with 151 rushing yards on just 12 attempts, including two rushing touchdowns, adding a catch for 13 more yards to the mix. Montgomery sees just two targets per game in the offense but he is a capable receiver at the position and he has a red zone target on the board (Gibbs already has four red zone targets). Montgomery is RB18 by points and RB20 by value on DraftKings, he is RB19/20 on the FanDuel slate and is worth cheap shots at touchdowns and big plays.

Receivers & Tight Ends

Amon-Ra St. Brown leads a high-quality receiving group that could be called upon early if the team does not get the run going against Cleveland’s sturdy front. St. Brown is an excellent option who gains 2.37 yards per route run and 9.5 yards per target on the season. The receiver has four touchdowns on the board in just three games while pulling in a huge 36.68% air yards share on an 8.8-yard ADOT. He was over 100 yards in Week 2 while posting three of his four touchdowns in a huge performance against Chicago, he was more limited for 45 yards in Week 1 and had a steady 77-yard day with a touchdown last week. St. Brown has been well over 100 catches and 1,000 yards in each of the last three seasons and has double-digit touchdown marks in the last two, he is a leading receiver in any format on either site. St. Brown checks into the Week 4 slate as WR2 by points and WR8 by value on DraftKings, on FanDuel he is WR3 by points but slips to WR19 by value at a hefty $8,800 price tag.

Jameson Williams is one of the league’s big breakout stories early in 2025. The receiver has a touchdown on the board while drawing a massive 17.8-yard average depth of target for a 30.5% air yards share that sits second only to the 36.68% mark carried by St. Brown, the pair represent a significant portion of this team’s passing game, which is helpful in drawing straight-line stacks. Williams has run 33.3 routes per game and racked up 1.74 yprr with a ridiculous 37.5% explosive play rate on receptions. The receiver is a natural deep threat and a big play waiting to happen for DFS scoring, he is an ideal +2 option in stacking but he also makes a standalone play and a good pivoted first option in stacks with Goff and the team’s tight end, Gibbs, or even a depth receiver. Williams is WR22/34 and WR19/25 across sites in Week 4.

Sam LaPorta’s 14.17% air yards share brings the three-man total with the top two receivers to more than 80% of the team’s air yards going in just three directions. The three top pass catchers and two premium running backs sharing a maxed-out workload leave very little on the table for depth options. LaPorta is pulling in an 18.5% target share, slightly outpacing Williams in early action, though those chances come on a 5.2-yard ADOT. The tight end has not found the end zone in 2025 but he has seen two targets in the red zone and scored seven times in 16 games last season with 10 touchdowns the year before as a rookie. LaPorta is easy access to this offense at lower potential public popularity as TE2 across the board on both sites.

As dart throws go, both Kalif Raymond and Isaac TeSlaa are fairly low-end options with limited volume and single-digit target shares over three weeks. Between the two, TeSlaa seems to have the early advantage given a 17.8-yard ADOT and a touchdown over limited chances to Raymond’s 7.7-yard ADOT. Neither player sees many chances but we will draw the big play opportunity every time when presented with that choice.

The Lions are in their typical spot among the top stacks of the week, they have too many high quality options to dip very far almost regardless of their opponent. Cleveland may challenge on the ground but they will be hard pressed to keep up with the excellent Detroit passing attack. The Lions are better than 10-point favorites who should win handily, the only potential down-throttle to this offense. Detroit is Stack 4 by points but Stack 18 by value on DraftKings at very high prices. They are Stack 7 by points but 17 by value on FanDuel at similarly high rates.

 


Houston Texans

Game Total: 39.5 / HOU -7.5 (23.5)

Offense: 40.12% rush / 59.88% pass / 12.7  ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 6.4 ypa pass

oppDEF: 3.8 ypa rush / 5.1 ypa pass / 31.3 ppg / 2.00% sack / 3.06% int

Key Player: CJ Stroud

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, Dalton Schultz, Nick Chubb, Woody Marks, Jayden Higgins, Xavier Hutchinson (large field), Jaylin Noel (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, Elic Ayomanor, Chig Okonkwo, Tyler Lockett

Game Notes: 

Quarterback

The Texans offense has been pathetic, to put it kindly, early in 2025. The team has managed a mere 12.7 points-per-game with limited production on the ground and in the passing game against the Rams, Buccaneers, and Jaguars over three games. Quarterback CJ Stroud has been limited to just 6.7 yards per pass attempt on 7.2 intended air yards per attempt with a CPOE 2.4 points below expectation. Stroud has two touchdown passes and three interceptions over three games while throwing just 29.67 passes per contest, neither the volume nor quality has been to expectation early in the season. The quarterback was a disappointment in 2024 as well, throwing for just 3,727 yards and 20 touchdowns with 12 interceptions after a 4,108-yard rookie season with 23 touchdowns against an outstanding five interceptions. Stroud does not have to play to that immaculate level but some improvement in his ratio of touchdowns to interceptions is mandatory and he needs to pick up the quality in his pass attempts and yardage output. The quarterback has one superstar-caliber option in Nico Collins and a few reasonable talents in the passing game, while the team lacks a competent running game to support the upside Stroud does have an opportunity to succeed against a lousy Titans pass defense. Tennessee has allowed 7.2 yards per pass attempt while generating just an 18.4% pressure rate and finding two sacks on the season, though they have managed three interceptions over three games. Stroud needs to find the quality this week to stay in the mix for fantasy consideration, this is a soft spot but he has lacked any production to give confidence, he is QB8 by points and QB2 by value on DraftKings and QB8/4 on the FanDuel slate but clicking his name requires a modicum of faith.

Running Backs

Nick Chubb has been OK in his return to action with 4.1 yards per rush attempt over a limited 11.3 carries per game. Chubb has a 5.88% explosive rush rate with 1.6 yards after contact per rush attempt, not star-powered numbers. The running back has found the end zone once and has a solid efficiency rating but a weak 2.94% broken tackle rate and only light exposure in the passing game. Chubb has been targeted twice per game but did see four chances in Week 3 and has a red zone target on the board for the season. The running back is a weak dart at touchdown upside as RB21 across the board on both sites.

Chubb will be challenged for carries by Woody Marks who slots in as the presumptive number two in this backfield. Marks jumped from 13 snaps in Week 2 to 30 last week, carrying the ball six times for 27 yards and catching one of two targets over 17 routes run for a nine yard gain. Marks has only seen limited touches over three contests, gaining 3.7 yards per rush attempt with no explosive runs but an 8.33% broken tackle rate in the small sample. With a bit of involvement both in the regular rushing game and the passing attack expected, Marks is more of a limiting factor to Chubb’s potential for adding volume than he is a big upside play. Marks is RB24/22 on both sites in Week 4.

Receivers & Tight Ends

Nico Collins is a clear-cut premium top-shelf wide receiver capable of posting monster scoring on any given slate. Collins has two touchdowns on the season while operating on a 10.2-yard ADOT for a 42.55% air yards share over three games. As by far the most talented pass-catcher on the team, Collins should continue to see this type of high-level value for targeting, he has a 29.1% target share over 31.7 routes per game, delivering a 1.91 yprr for the season. Collins has also been aggressively targeted when it comes time to score, with four red zone targets in three games. The receiver gained 1,006 yards and scored seven times in just 12 games last season, he is an outstanding option in pairings with Stroud and works sufficiently as a top WR option in standalone play as well. Collins is worth paying up for in and out of stacks, he is the clear leader for targets and big play opportunities in this offense and will remain so all season.

Christian Kirk is a playable option in the second receiver role. Kirk missed the first two games but returned for 42 snaps last week, catching just three of eight targets on his 30 routes run, putting an empty 25 yards on the board. Kirk saw just a 50.0% catchable target rate over that action, a mark that should improve in this week’s game as Stroud should have more time to let options develop with a light pass rush coming at him. Kirk will see higher-quality opportunities that should put him in play in +2 stacks or as a standalone, his value in skinny stacks is also apparent, the receiver’s career high came in 2022 with 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns on 84 catches over 17 games with Jacksonville, he has been limited for appearances and production since but can produce when healthy.

Dalton Schultz has a 14.04% air yards share on a 17.4% target share over his 26.7 routes per game. The tight end is an involved receiver who has been somewhat limited early on, seeing 5.0 targets per game but catching just 3.7 for 32.0 yards, or 6.4 per target. Schultz has not found the end zone on the season but his 1.20 yards per route run for a cheap price and a red zone target on the board give hope that he will find quality. The tight end scored just twice in 17 games last season, posting a limited 532 yards on 53 catches, he had five touchdowns in the two seasons immediately before that dip and eight touchdowns in a career-high for Dallas in 2021. Schultz is a playable TE14/8 on DraftKings and TE14/13 on FanDuel, he functions better as a part of Houston stacks than as a standalone tight end where there are more likely options for both points and value.

Xavier Hutchinson and Jayden Higgins represent depth darts in the passing attack that can be lightly deployed in an abundance of stacks, particularly for large field GPP play. Hutchinson plays 55.0% of the snaps to Higgins’ 42.0% over three games, including an uptick to 39 snaps with the offense last week. Hutchinson ran 27 routes and drew three targets, catching them all but producing just 16 yards for the effort in Week 3. Higgins, meanwhile, ran 12 routes over 28 snaps with the offense but was targeted only once, he caught the lone pass for just give yards but had a 28-yard reception in Week 2 and gained 32 yards on two catches the week before and he has operated on a far more interesting 12.2-yard ADOT to start the season. Higgins slightly outpaces Hutchinson for DFS quality but both receivers rank outside of the top-50 at WR in Week 4.

The Texans have been a low-end team over three weeks, they are likely to be overlooked to at least some degree by the general public while sharper gamers could get on the spot against a very weak Titans pass defense. Stroud to Collins will be easily the most popular and worthwhile combination but the team offers a handful of possibilities at light prices. Houston is Stack 13 by points and Stack 14 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 13 by points but leap to Stack 7 by value on the FanDuel slate

 


Indianapolis Colts

Game Total:  50.0 / IND +3.5  (23.25)

Offense: 52.63% rush / 47.37% pass / 34.3 ppg / 4.6 ypa rush / 9.3 ypa pass

oppDEF: 3.9 ypa rush / 6.4 ypa pass / 20.3 ppg / 11.54% sack / 1.09% int

Key Player: Daniel Jones

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren, Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Davante Adams (Q, expected), Tyler Higbee (Q, likely), Blake Corum (on/off), Jordan Whittington (large field), Tutu Atwell (very large field)

Game Notes: 

Quarterback

In the most obvious example of the Mandela Effect since arriving in a universe in which the Berenstein Bears somehow changed to the Berenstain Bears we would swear that we lived in a universe in which quarterback Daniel Jones was a not-quite-competent bust of a draft pick who washed out of New York just before getting run out of town on a rail. That Jones has resurrected his career to this degree over just three games is probably a massive overreaction to a small sample from a still middling talent, but Jones has been undeniably great for fantasy production during his first three weeks in Indianapolis. If anything can stop turn this Cinderella story into a pumpkin, however, it is our endorsement in a bandwagon-breaking move that can wait at least one more week. Jones lands as a playable but not prioritized QB12/14 and QB12/18 on a board desperately seeking normalization. The quarterback has been steady over three outings, posting a CPOE 7.4 points above expectation, significant gains for accuracy for the shaky thrower of footballs. Jones has three touchdown passes and has yet to throw an interception while averaging a terrific 9.3 yards per pass attempt that sits among the league leaders. The quarterback has averaged an outstanding 272.0 passing yards per game, adding another 3.2 yards per rush attempt on 5.7 carries per game with three rushing touchdowns significantly padding his fantasy production. Through another lens, that is mediocre rushing production on a YPA basis for a quarterback who has only thrown three touchdowns in three games. Is the world getting a bit carried away with three fortunate rushing touchdowns? It remains possible, if not probable. Jones will also be without deep threat Alec Pierce, though that role will be adequately filled by understudy Adonai Mitchell who will run the same deep routes. The Rams have held opposing offenses to a 12th-ranked 6.4 yards per pass attempt while picking up a dozen sacks on a solid 21.4% pressure rate over three games, while holding quarterbacks to a bottom-10 CPOE and yardage marks. Jones has been worth the ride early in the season but this could be a situation where we are racing and leaping to catch a docking ferry.

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor is a true bell-cow running back who sees massive potential touch shares on a weekly basis. Taylor carries the ball 20.0 times per game while playing 75.0% of the team’s snaps over three contests. The running back draws 3.0 targets per game and has a red zone target with a receiving touchdown on the board early in the campaign. Taylor’s 23 potential touches per game and fantastic production of 5.6 yards per rush attempt with an 8.33% explosive rush rate and 3.6 yards after contact per rush attempt on a 13.3% broken tackle rate are tremendous markers for quality for the obvious play. Between Daniel Jones at the wheel of the passing game or Taylor on his own as a running back in non-stacked lineups, we continue to prefer the ridiculous volume and upside that Taylor provides. The running back is a top option positionally in any configuration, he works very well in stacks and out of them as a heavily involved piece of the offense who finds correlation regardless of his targets in the passing game. Jonathan Taylor is RB8 by points and RB16 by value on DraftKings, he is RB7 by points and RB16 by value on FanDuel, with the Rams’ solid 3.9 yards allowed per rush attempt to this point in the season as a slightly limiting factor.

There is very little room for DJ Giddens or Tyler Goodson in this offense with the workload that goes to Taylor. Neither running back should be expected to touch the ball even five times unless things go awry.

Receivers & Tight Ends

Michael Pittman Jr. continues to be the premium receiver in this offense, though we tend to prefer the big play tendencies of the Pierces of the world. Pittman Jr. comes in with just a 6.5-yard ADOT but steady volume with 0.23 targets per route run for 6.5 per game. The receiver gains an excellent 2.33 yards per route run with two receiving touchdowns on the board in early action and a 12.5% explosive play rate in the passing game. Pittman Jr. has a 24.3% first read share in the offense but has not the 80 yards he gained in Week 1. With Pierce’s absence freeing up a potential target or two, Pittman could see a thrust up the board for his first 100-yard day of the season if all goes to plan for Jones and this offense once again. Pittman is WR21 by points but leaps to WR10 by value at a cheap $5,100 on DraftKings. He is similarly rated at an affordable $5,800 on FanDuel that renders him as WR22 by points but WR9 by points-per-dollar value on the blue site.

Tyler Warren is a standout rookie tight end who has run with the primary job in this offense. Warren runs 26.7 routes per game while playing 90.0% of the snaps with the offense, though that dipped to just 68.0% last week. The tight end has a 24.1% target share with a 71.43% catchable target rate from Jones putting him on the board for 2.41 yards per route run but zero touchdowns over three games. Warren has picked up a 15.4% air yards share but is another pass-catcher who does not exactly get down the field with just a 5.2-yard average depth of target. Warren is TE3 by points and TE4 by value on DraftKings, he is TE1 across the board on the FanDuel slate.

Josh Downs checks in with a 16.1% target share over three games, posting 1.8 yards per route run on 5.0 targets per game. Downs is another option to see a bit of an uptick in chances with Pierce out, he works downfield somewhat on an 8.4-yard ADOT for 17.83% of the team’s air yards but technically stands more as the middle-ground option in this passing game. Downs has a 10.0% explosive play rate in the passing game, he is an upside option with a reasonably priced ceiling in a passing game that has stood out early in the season. Downs has been limited to just a 17.1% first read share in that passing game but that mark could also climb somewhat this week. He is a mixer of an option with low expectations but a path to a ceiling score even against a tough defensive matchup. The wideout is WR32 by points but WR6 by value on DraftKings, he is WR30/20 on the FanDuel slate.

Adonai Mitchell will most likely fill the Pierce role in this passing game, he was on the field for a season-high 24 snaps with Pierce knocked out of action midway through Week 3. Mitchell came away from that game with zero catches on two targets over nine routes run, he had four catches over the two games prior to that outing in limited action. Mitchell has seen a big-play-adjacent 16.3-yard average depth of target this season and carried a 13.6-yard ADOT over 55 targets last season. Mitchell caught 23 of those passes for 312 yards but his next NFL touchdown will be his first. As a value dart for a big throw leading to a score, Mitchell is on the board, but he should not be expected to produce many fantasy points in the average run of this matchup, the low-projected receiver is WR62/57 and WR62/61.

Ashton Dulin is another minimally involved receiver who is a threat for a deep bomb or two. Dulin could easily fill the Pierce role as well, he had an 18.6-yard ADOT over just eight targets last year but was at double-digit marks in each of the two prior seasons while pulling 22 targets each year as a low-end option. Dulin scored twice in 2021 and once in 2022, adding another touchdown on just two catches for 67 yards last season. Dulin is an even lower-probability option than Mitchell in Week 4.

The Colts rank as Stack 11 by points but Stack 7 by value on DraftKings and Stack 10/15 on FanDuel, they continue to show quality and, as long as Jones can deliver accurate passing and the occasional rushing touchdown, they should be able to maintain quality. At worst this team is an excellent source of standalone running back quality from Jonathan Taylor. Jones +1 and Jones +2 options are on the board, with the latter bolstered by the cheap value darts for those big play throws.

 


Jacksonville Jaguars

Game Total: 46.0 /JAC +3.5 (21.25)

Offense: 41.71% rush / 58.29% pass / 23.3 ppg / 5.1 ypa rush / 5.9 ypa pass

oppDEF: 3.7 ypa rush / 5.6 ypa pass / 16.3 ppg / 5.15% sack / 0.0% int

Key Player: Trevor Lawrence

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, Travis Etienne Jr., Brenton Strange, Bhayshul Tuten, Parker Washington, Dyami Brown (Q)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Christian McCaffrey, Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings, Jake Tonges, Brian Robinson Jr., Kendrick Bourne

Game Notes: 

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence has been an abject disappointment for those of us invested in him in season-long leagues at cheap draft value this season. Lawrence has failed to live up to a bit of hype around some quality pass-catchers and his own natural talents with a new system in place, while that has yielded solid results for the rushing attack it has not translated to quality passing over three contests. Lawrence ranks in the bottom-third of the league with a -10.8 CPOE and he has been limited to just 5.90 yards per pass attempt on a 7.5-yard intended air yards per attempt. Lawrence has not added much scoring potential on the ground with just 3.1 yards per rush attempt and 2.7 carries per game. The quarterback had an OK outing in Week 2, throwing for 271 yards on 24-42 passing and throwing three touchdown passes as one of our leading options for the week, but he let two interceptions get away to knock the production down several notches from potential. Lawrence threw another 40 passes last week but came away with just 222 yards with no touchdowns and an interception, giving him four of each on the season. In perhaps his biggest ongoing failing in 2025, Lawrence has failed to get premium receiver Brian Thomas Jr. going in any meaningful way, leaving him with just 1.05 yards per route run and zero touchdowns over three games. Lawrence will face a 49ers defense that has limited opposing teams to just 5.6 yards per pass attempt and 16.3 points-per-game overall on the season. Lawrence is QB15 by points but QB8 by value on DraftKings, he is QB17/11 on the FanDuel slate with value outperforming quality on both sites.

Running Backs

Travis Etienne Jr. has been productive to a point that matches original expectations when he arrived in the NFL. The running back has been excellent in both the rushing and passing attack, gaining 5.9 yards per rush attempt on 15.3 carries per game with an 8.7% explosive rush rate and 90 yards per game. Etienne Jr. picks up value in the passing game, drawing 2.5 chances per game with a receiving touchdown on the board and a pair of red zone targets. With one touchdown on the board on the ground, the running back is off to a strong start, but he saw his lightest output in Week 3 with only 56 yards on 16 carries with a touchdown making the difference in the quality of his day. The running back slots in against a defense allowing just 3.7 yards per rush attempt to sit seventh overall this season, he is RB16/18 on DraftKings and RB16/19 on FanDuel and plays far better as a second running back or flex play than a lead running back. Etienne Jr. is easy to reach both in and out of stacks, given steady involvement in the scoring portion of the passing game.

Etienne Jr. will continue to lead the offense in opportunities but will be pushed by rookie Bhayshul Tuten, who carried the ball six times for 21 yards and a touchdown last week after eight carries for 42 yards the week before. As it stands, Tuten has played just limited snaps and found value, he was on the field for 12 plays with the offense last week but one was his converted red zone carry and he ran six routes with a target, giving him involvement on 12 of 12 plays with 7 potential touches in the limited snaps. Tuten is just RB32/34 and RB32/35, he is more of a potential detriment to Etienne Jr.’s ceiling than a true option for anything but a cheap touchdown dart.

Receivers & Tight Ends

Brian Thomas Jr. arrived on the scene in a big way in 2024, catching 87 of 133 targets for 9.6 yards per target, totaling 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns in a fantastic 17-game rookie season. Thomas Jr. truly hit his stride over the last five games of the season, catchign 8.2 of 12.0 targets per game of 103.4 yards and 4 total touchdowns over that stretch. The receiver has been held out of the end zone for three straight contests to open 2025, totaling just seven catches while drawing a 23.1% target share over 102 routes run. Thomas Jr. has gained just 1.05 yards per route run but much of the mess is not his fault. Over three games, quarterback Trevor Lawrence has managed to deliver just a 44.0% catchable ball rate to his most frequently-targeted and most talented receiver, a wildly unsustainable mark that must improve. Thomas Jr. is not the problem, he slots in as WR5/5 on DraftKings and WR11/18 on FanDuel and is highly playable on both sites albeit in a difficult matchup.

Travis Hunter’s production has not ignited the fantasy football world as some may have expected coming into the season. The highly-touted two-way player checks in with zero touchdowns on 5.5 targets per game with a limited 0.94 yards per route run. Hunter is operating mostly as a short-yardage receiver with a 6.8-yard average depth of target for a 12.45% air yards share, similar marks to tight end Brenton Strange. Hunter has drawn a 14.8% target share in the offense with two opportunities in the red zone and a 75.0% catchable target rate that far exceeds what Thomas Jr. has seen. The receiver will produce, the team has already called his number when scoring time arrives, he is an interesting mixer in Jaguars stacks and a talented one-off option in other lineups at a cheap price. Hunter is WR34 by points but WR29 by value on DraftKings and WR39/35 on FanDuel.

Brenton Strange has seen a 6.8-yard ADOT that matches Hunter’s targeting, with an 11.37% air yards share and 1.49 yprr for the season. Strange has also failed to deliver a touchdown, he does have a 7.69% explosive play rate on receptions, with big gain potential extracted from some downfield pass-catching opportunities. Strange is TE13 by points but TE6 by value on DraftKings, he is TE15/17 on FanDuel where he sees no real value bump. The tight end is more appealing in stacks for correlated scoring potential at low cost and low ownership than he is as a standalone option.

Parker Washington has seen 5.5 targets per game in early action while Dyami Brown has picked up 4.5 chances, more involvement than one might expect for cheap low-end options down the board. Washington has gained an excellent 2.24 yards per route run on a 14.8% target rate and a 10.6-yard ADOT with a 22.22% explosive play rate, he is coming off of a 50-snap 30-route 11-target game in Week 3 that saw him catch four passes for just 34 yards. He had five catches for 76 yards in Week 2. Washington is an interesting mix-in, particularly with Dyami Brown currently questionable to play with a shoulder injury that pushed him out of last week’s contest. Brown had five catches for 57 yards and a touchdown in a solid Week 2 performance, following three catches for 52 yards in the season opener, if he plays he is on the board as a depth dart similar to Washington. If Brown is out, Washington gains ground.

The Jaguars are a mid-board option with quality skill player and an underperforming quarterback, they check in as Stack 14 by points but Stack 9 by value on DraftKings but land as just Stack 16/18 on the FanDuel slate, where they do not see as much quality at higher overall pricing across all positions.

 


Kansas City Chiefs

Game Total: 48.0 / KC +2.5 (22.75)

Offense: 39.01% rush / 60.99% pass / 20.0 ppg / 4.6 ypa rush / 6.4 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.9 ypa rush / 6.7 ypa pass / 32.0 ppg / 2.40% sack / 0.82% int

Key Player: Patrick Mahomes

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce, Hollywood Brown, Tyquan Thornton, Isiah Pacheco (on/off), Kareem Hunt (on/off), Noah Gray (on/off, large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman, Isaiah Likely, DeAndre Hopkins, Derrick Henry (on/off)

Game Notes: 

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes has been a bit sub-standard early in the 2025 season, he was only as good as he had to be in beating the Giants in Week 3 and he was just moderately productive in losses to quality teams against the Eagles in Week 2 and the Chargers in the opener. The quarterback checks in with exactly one touchdown pass in each of the first three games, adding a rushing touchdown in the first two matchups but not in Week 3 against New York, because why risk it against that lousy team? Mahomes has a -6.5 CPOE over 35.0 pass attempt per game, completing just 59.0% of them for 223.0 yards per game with 6.4 yards per attempt. The quarterback can blame a bit of the underperformance on the absence of presumptive top receiver Xavier Worthy whose explosive big play ability has been sorely missed. Worthy is expected back this week and could add immediate potential to this passing attack in a game where they will need quality against a high-powered Ravens squad. Kansas City still has Travis Kelce at the tight end position, even with lackluster overall output over the last year or more, Kelce stands among the more productive fantasy scorers at the tight end spot. With mixers including Hollywood Brown and a now somewhat reburied Tyquan Thronton – assuming the return of Worthy – this team could be sneaky-interesting as a stack in Week 4. Mahomes rates as QB4 by both points and value on DraftKings and sits as QB4 by points and QB5 by value on FanDuel.

Running Backs

Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt are essentially the same guy as RB-about-25 across the board on both sites. Pacheco carries the ball 8.3 times per game over a 61.0% snap share while Hunt has seen 7.7 carries per game over an 83.0% snap share that dipped to just 44.0% to Pacheco’s 56.0% mark last week. Neither player has been good in their limited chances, Pacheco gains 3.7 yards per attempt and Hunt has been worse at a 3.5 YPA, though he does have the lone touchdown between the two running backs. Both players are drawing 2.0 targets per game out of the backfield for limited production, though Pacheco has an 8.0% explosive play rate on receptions while Hunt is at 4.35% with both players carrying negative ADOTs. Both running backs rank outside the top-20 across the board, they are limited plays at best and they are not high priorities even within stacks of Chiefs.

Receivers & Tight Ends

Xavier Worthy is off of the injury report and fully expected to play on Sunday. The receiver has explosive potential on any given play, he scored six touchdowns on 59-98 receiving for 638 yards last season, adding another three touchdowns on 104 yards over 20 carries as a gadget play rusher. Worthy had four gains of more than 20 yards over his 59 catches last season and spiked two runs for more than 20 yards in the limited 20 carries he saw on the season. The big play potential should be intact, even with three games lost this season. Worthy suffered a shoulder injury in Week 1 but that should not greatly impact his ability to amass yardage or his big play potential. Worthy is a top priority option in stacks of Chiefs, he rates as WR26/37 on DraftKings and WR24/31 on FanDuel.

Travis Kelce is TE5 by points and TE10 by value on DraftKings and slots in as TE4/9 on the FanDuel slate, he is a premium play for upside if this passing game fires on all cylinders in a shootout against a big rival. Kelce has a receiving touchdown on the season and has posted an OK but unspectacular 1.37 yards per route run. The tight end draws a 16.7% target share and has seen two early opportunities in the red zone, where he will remain heavily involved. Kelce has been operating on just a 5.4-yard average depth of target for a 10.24% air yards share both of which would continue significant year-over-year dips in those categories. The tight end remains an elite scorer at the position, his potential is extreme on any slate, but his downside has become just as visible in recent seasons. Kelce is very playable but his value ratings are less than desirable on both sites, he is a better option within stacks than as a standalone play.

Hollywood Brown looked like he was going to be a target monster in the absence of Xavier Worthy but that never truly came to pass outside of the original game in which Worthy was hurt. The go-forward quality remains to be seen. Brown caught 10 of 16 passes to get things started in Week 1, putting up 99 yards but failing to score. He immediately dipped for quality with five catches on only five targets for 30 yards after being a wildly popular waiver claim in season-long leagues going into Week 2. Brown bounced back somewhat with 42 yards on 4-6 receiving in Week 3 but he should see a dip in chances, not an increase, with Worth and Kelce ahead of him in the pecking order and an emergent Tyquan Thornton demanding targets. Brown could easily get boxed into a more limited role but he may also poke his head up for an uptick in targets from time to time and he can always find the end zone as a lower-cost, lower-owned pivot in this offense. Brown is WR40/46 and WR42/43 across sites.

Tyquan Thornton slides down the board somewhat with a lower-end expectation for targeting in a developing situation. Thornton emerged as a big play threat in this offense over the past few weeks, while volume may dip from the 6.5 targets per game he was seeing, including a whopping nine last week, Thornton could at least maintain the deep shots downfield for big scoring potential. The receiver has a ridiculous 25.1-yard ADOT over 17 total targets, he is an extreme option to uncork a huge gain and a potentially under-owned touchdown. Thornton does not rate well, he is just WR59/62 and WR53/58 across sites but he has explosive ceiling-score potential if a couple of play calls break his way and he has a quarterback that can get the ball to him in those situations, he is a name to remember when filling out cheap slots in any lineup, but particularly as a +2 in Mahomes stacks.

Noah Gray is a better Showdown play than a main slate option but he can mix in for a few red zone chances here and there. Gray has seen 4.0 targets per game early in 2025 but has delivered just 0.37 yards per route run overall and has yet to score or see that crucial red zone chance.

The Chiefs are an oddly rated team as just Stack 19 by points and Stack 21 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 17/19 on the FanDuel slate and there is clear ceiling potential on both sites despite just a 22.75-point implied team total. The focus should be on the passing attack with Kansas City, both running back options are low-end players who may fall into the end zone but are otherwise simply traps in this offense, the explosiveness and quality lies in the pass-catching group, including the tight ends.

 


Las Vegas Raiders

Game Total: 48.0 / LV -1.0 (24.5)

Offense: 37.57% rush / 62.43% pass / 17.7 ppg / 4.5 ypa rush / 7.8 ypa pass

oppDEF: 5.5 ypa rush / 8.3 ypa pass / 31.0 ppg / 5.10% sack / 4.30% int

Key Player: Geno Smith

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker, Ashton Jeanty (on/off), Dont’e Thornton

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Rome Odunze, DJ Moore, D’Andre Swift (on/off), Olamide Zaccheaus, Luther Burden III, Cole Kmet, Colston Loveland (on/off)

Game Notes: 

Quarterback

Geno Smith and his Raiders are a fairly high-flying stack against a vulnerable Chicago defense in Week 4. The Bears have allowed an unsustainable 5.5 yards per rush attempt to rank 31st and a ridiculous 8.3 yards per pass attempt to land 27th, though they have created some havoc with five sacks and four interceptions early in the year, while pressuring the quarterback at a 23.0% rate. Smith has thrown 35.3 passes per game over the season’s first three outings, gaining 7.8 yards per pass attempt but throwing for just four touchdowns with four interceptions. Smith has a -0.9 CPOE mark on the season, his 63.0% completion rate is a limiting factor as are his ratings for catchable targets up and down the depth chart. Smith is a middling passer who sees an uptick in quality for sheer volume, he is capable of big passing days and already had a 362-yard performance in Week 1. Smith just missed the 300-yard mark last week, posting 289 yards on 19-29 passing in his lightest volume game, but he threw three touchdown passes in that contest for his best overall performance. There is no reason to think Smith would fail to replicate something along those lines, 300 yards and multiple touchdown passes are in play in this matchup and the quarterback lands as QB11 by points and QB9 by value on DraftKings and QB11/13 on FanDuel with solid rankings for several skill players to go along with him.

Running Backs

Ashton Jeanty has been largely disappointing over three games. The highly touted early draft pick finds just 3.1 yards per rush attempt over 15.7 carries per game early in his career and has shown little quality despite targeting in the passing attack. Jeanty has posted just 0.5 yards per target on a -5.2-yard ADOT to start the season with 2.0 targets per game and two red zone opportunities. The rookie has a rushing touchdown on the board in his low-end production in the ground game and his 27.66% broken tackle rate is outstanding, but he has a -0.9 yards over expectation mark per rush attempt and a 6.38% explosive rush rate to start his career. Jeanty could be in line for a big breakout performance against this defense that has allowed significant gains on the ground for total yards and explosive runs. Jeanty is RB9 by points but RB2 by value on the DraftKings slate, he rates as an even more critical FanDuel piece as RB10 by points but RB1 by value.

Zamir White draws just 3.3 carries and 2.0 targets per game, he is an extremely thin backup option who is not really on the board.

Receivers & Tight Ends

Brock Bowers is TE1 by points and TE9 by value on DraftKings, he is Te3 by points and TE7 by value on FanDuel and has extreme upside to lead the position on any given slate. Bowers is an outstanding pass-catcher at the position, he caught 112 passes on 153 targets for 1,194 yards and five touchdowns as a rookie last season, gaining 7.8 yards per target as a massive piece of the Las Vegas offense with a lower-end quarterback at the helm. With Smith in town, Bowers should go up for production but he has seen only light gains over the first few games, catching a total of 14 passes for 179 yards and lacking a scoring play. Bowers gained 103 yards on five catches over 23 routes and eight targets in Week 1 but has hit for just 38 yards in each of the last two games. The tight end was targeted in the red zone in each of the last two contests and will continue to see heavy involvement in the team’s scoring plans, he should not be downgraded for a few lighter-than-average games. Bowers still sees a 20.4% target share and 18.39% of the air yards, he has a 21.43% explosive play rate on receptions and delivers 2.01 yards per route run, the touchdowns and big days will arrive as long as he continues doing exactly what he has always done.

Jakobi Meyers pulls in 5.7 of 9.0 targets per game for 8.8 yards per target over three contests. The wide receiver has yet to hit paydirt, all four of Geno Smith’s passing touchdowns have gone to Tre Tucker, who remains cheap as a depth option on this slate. Meyers will see his chances throughout the season, the productive top wide receiver has already picked up a pair of red zone targets and he scored four times while gaining 1,027 yards in just 15 games in this offense last year and had eight touchdowns but fewer yards the season before. Meyers gains 2.11 yards per route run over 36.0 routes per game, he is a steady productive receiver with big play ability who lands as WR18/12 on DraftKings and WR18 by points but WR6 by value where he stands out somewhat for quality on the blue site. A Geno+Bowers+Meyers stack may be obvious off the top within builds from this team, but it has clear appeal in this matchup and the team provides solid mixers to get different.

Tre Tucker has four touchdowns over just 20 total targets for a 19.4% target share that sits behind both Bowers and Meyers. Tucker has seen three red zone targets along the way and gains an excellent 10.6 yards per target for the season with a 29.41% explosive play rate and 26.41% air yards share as a deep threat on a 9.5-yard ADOT, though Dont’e Thornton Jr. exceeds that mark with an excellent big play 12.5-yard ADOT and 26.40% air yards share on limited targeting in a small sample. Tucker’s numbers were vastly different over the season’s first two weeks, he was the average player we have seen in the past, his numbers are bolstered significantly by a massive Week 3 performance in which he scored three times and went for 145 yards on eight catches. Both receivers are interesting for depth but Tucker is coming off of that massive week and will get far more popular while Thornton Jr. is left on the shelf. Tucker is WR44/42 and WR44/46 across sites and is easy enough to play.

Dont’e Thornton is WR49/52 and WR50/49, not far removed from Tucker’s ratings on either site for a lower price on both – far lower on FanDuel – and an extreme chance at lower popularity. Thornton has been involved over the first three games of his career. The fourth-round pick has seen a 76.0% snap share with 0.15 targets per route run over 26.7 routes per game. Thornton has not been targeted in the red zone but his big play opportunities largely negate that minor downside, he already has three catches of more than 20 yards on the season for a 60.0% explosive play rate on his five catches. Thornton is not much more than a dart at a big play for a touchdown, but he has demonstrated that quality and he will be clearly lower-owned than his counterparts in an offense with mid-board appeal in Week 4.

The Raiders rank as Stack 8 by points and Stack 3 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 9 by points and Stack 5 by value on the FanDuel slate and show interesting quality on both sites. The matchup against the Bears is tremendous and there are true high-quality bring-back options in consideration to fill out some correlated scoring potential from the game script as desired. Geno Smith +1 or +2 stacks are looking like a fair selection in lineup building this week, individual options from the Raiders including Brock Bowers, Ashton Jeanty, and Jakobi Meyers are easily playable in standalone situations in other lineups while remaining skill players are less desirable in that role.

 


Los Angeles Chargers

Game Total: 44.0 / LAC -6.5 (25.25)

Offense: 40.10% rush / 59.90% pass / 23.3 ppg / 3.5 ypa rush / 8.0 ypa pass

oppDEF: 5.2 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 27.7 ppg / 6.30% sack / 0.84% int

Key Player: Justin Herbert

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, Omarion Hampton (on/off), Tyler Conklin, Oronde Gadsden II (on/off), Tre’ Harris (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Malik Nabers, Cam Skattebo, Wan’Dale Robinson, Theo Johnson, Darius Slayton

Game Notes: 

Quarterback

The high-flying Chargers have rung up 8.0 yards per pass attempt and 286.67 yards per game with Justin Herbert completing 67.0% of his passes with a +2.7 CPOE mark. The quarterback has thrown six touchdowns and reestablished his connection with veteran star Keenan Allen and spinning up a true breakout for Quentin Johnston early in the season to provide solid depth of DFS scoring potential. Herbert has a solid value-priced running back now in the lead role in rookie Omarion Hampton, and several premium pass catchers who he can strike with at different points on the field. The quarterback has been at or above the 300-yard mark twice already this season and is throwing for steady volume to solid targets. This is an elite passing game facing a lousy defense that has allowed 6.9 yards per pass attempt and 5.2 yards per rush while finding little pressure against the quarterback despite that being a stated focus of the defensive scheme. Los Angeles should have a big day in all facets of their offense, they are a tremendous option for stacking and individual upside and Herbert slots in as QB6 by points but QB13 by value on DraftKings and is similarly QB6/10 on FanDuel.

Running Backs

Omarion Hampton is in a terrific spot as a cheap option on both sites against a nothing rush defense. The Giants have been gouged for gains by less talented backs already this season and Hampton is off to a steady start with 14.0 carries per game, though he has managed to stack up just 3.4 yards per rush attempt and a 2.38% explosive rush rate. The running back’s 16.7% broken tackle rate is a compelling mark and he has a rushing touchdown on the season on the steady volume. Hampton has also been involved in the passing game, juicing his potential touches with 3.5 targets per game, he has averaged 6.6 yards per target with a 9.52% explosive play rate in the passing game. Hampton was targeted a surprising seven times on 31 routes run over 68 snaps in a breakout Week 3 performance that was required when veteran Najee Harris was lost for the season. The running back gained 70 yards and scored a touchdown on 19 rush attempts against Denver last week, adding 59 yards on six catches over the seven targets he drew against the higher-quality defense. Hampton is in line for a big game against New York, he slots in as RB7 by points and RB1 by value on DraftKings and RB8/2 on the FanDuel slate and should be heavily utilized within stacks for correlated scoring at a cheap price and outside of stacks for the sheer value potential.

Receivers & Tight Ends

The Chargers feature three wide receivers drawing around a 20% target share with Ladd McConkey at 19.6% bringing up the bottom of the board. McConkey has drawn 7.5 targets per game in the aggressive passing attack, delivering 1.37 yards per route run over nearly 40 routes per contest, he sees steady volume on a 9.0-yad ADOT for 18.47% of the team’s air yards but he has  yet to score this season. The touchdown passes have gone to his equally excellent running mates. McConkey has been quietly excellent in underlying metrics on the season and regularly beats coverage, the big plays and scoring will come and he could slip for popularity while maintaining quality in the offense. McConkey is WR13/32 and WR17/37 across sites.

As WR16/7 and WR14/7, Keenan Allen is looking like a premium value on both DraftKings and FanDuel this weekend. The veteran receiver has drawn 0.28 targets per route run with 1.96 yards per route run and three touchdowns already this season. Allen sees a 26.2% target share with 10.0 targets per game and a 28.44% air yards share as if he never left this offense. Allen is an outstanding value who could stick out for public shares and get a bit over-owned in Chargers stacks and in standalone values, he is a premium option and a strong points-per-dollar play but popularity will decide the quality.

Quentin Johnston is WR20 by points and WR22 by value on DraftKings, he is a tremendous WR13 by points and WR2 by value on the FanDuel slate for just $6,200. The receiver has found the end zone three times already this season, putting up 2.06 yards per route run and drawing a monster 14.3-yard average depth of target for a team-leading 32.85% air yards share. Johnston did not score in Week 3 but still managed 89 yards on six catched over nine targets and a whopping 50 routes run over 75 snaps with the offense. The heavily-involved receiver is a big play waiting to happen and the team has been taking deliberate shots in his direction for huge touchdown opportunities with five red zone opportunities equaling Allen’s targeting in scoring situations. Johnston is a premium play for value on FanDuel and a strong point-scoring option on both sites against lousy New York pass coverage.

Tyler Conklin is TE25/22 and TE25/25 across sites, he is a low-end option mixing in with Oronde Gadsden II for split shares with Will Dissly out again in Week 4. The receivers and running back are enough, there are only darts for low-owned touchdowns at tight end.

The Chargers are both a high-end scoring stack and a premium value play on both sites this weekend, they rate as Stack 6 by points and Stack 4 by value on DraftKings and Stack 6 by points with a Stack 2 value rating on the FanDuel slate. There is significant potential in getting to Herbert+1 or Herbert+2 stacks and all three of the top-end wide receivers plus Omarion Hampton are strong standalone plays. Hampton is affordable on both sites with strong running back value ratings at fair pricing against a gettable defense.

 


Los Angeles Rams

Game Total: 50.0 / LAR -3.5 (26.75)

Offense: 44.51% rush / 55.49% pass / 24.3 ppg / 4.7 ypa rush / 7.7 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.8 ypa rush / 5.8 ypa pass / 18.7 ppg / 6.60% sack / 4.04% int

Key Player: Matthew Stafford

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Puka Nacua, Davante Adams (Q, expected), Kyren Williams (on/off), Tyler Higbee (Q, likely), Blake Corum (on/off), Jordan Whittington (on/off), Tutu Atwell (on/off, large field), Davis Allen (on/off, large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren, Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell

Game Notes: 

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford ranks in the lower-third of the quarterbacks board in Week 4 as QB16/19 and QB16/15 but his receivers land somewhat better than that, with Puka Nacua showing particular quality. The matchup against the Colts is not a good one for the passing game, Indianapolis has limited opponents to just 5.8 yards per pass attempt while coming up with four interceptions on the season, though they have faced low-quality passing attacks that could be skewing numbers somewhat. Stafford and his receiving corps will easily be the toughest challenge for the Colts and it would not surprise to see them deliver in this situation. The veteran quarterback has thrown for 7.8 yards per pass attempt and 246.3 yards with a +4.9 CPOE on the season on 31.7 pass attempts per game. Stafford has excellent weapons in the passing game, he has delivered mixed results across metrics from hero throws through accuracy, with the simple surface results amounting to five touchdown passes and two interceptions. Stafford is a playable option as a path to correlated scoring with his excellent receivers in a highly-rated stack despite not standing out for individual potential.

Running Backs

Kyren Williams is a volume-and-touchdown dependent running back who gains 4.1 yards per rush attempt over 18.3 carries per game. Williams has a 7.27% explosive rush rate and has posted 0.2 yards over expectation per attempt early this season but has underperformed those marks in years past. The running back typically needs to fall into the end zone to truly make value, he has one rushing touchdown on the season while gaining another touch of upside from 2.0 targets per game with a touchdown in the passing attack. Williams has yet to gain 100 rushing yards in a game this season, he topped out with 94 on 20 carries in the team’s Week 3 game, getting over 100 from scrimmage with an additional 18 yards and a touchdown on two catches. He had more limited 66-yard rushing days in Weeks 1 and 2. Williams is getting pushed somewhat by Blake Corum who has been one of the league’s more productive backups, with Corum biting a bit of touchdown potential, Williams dips even further in our esteem. He will project fairly well as long as the touch potential holds up and he rates as RB12/15 and RB11/17 but speculative value puts him lower than that.

Blake Corum gains a ridiculous 7.1 yards per rush attempt over 4.1 carries per game in a small sample this season. Corum has a 21.43% explosive rush rate and has already punched in a touchdown on the ground. The running back gained 53 yards on eight carries in Week 3 but did not score, he also went untargeted over just four routes run. Corum drew zero targets over 10 routes but gained 44 yards on five rush attempts with the lone touchdown in Week 2, he was more limited but saw his only target of the season in Week 1. The running back should see a few ongoing opportunities each week, he will gain touches if the production keeps up at these levels. Corum is less of a play than a threat to Williams’ quality but he does rank as RB33/33 and RB31/30 across sites.

Receivers & Tight Ends

The buried lead thus far in this Rams breakdown is superstar receiver Puka Nacua who rates as WR1 by points on both sites with huge expectations despite a stout early-season pass defense coming from the Colts side. Nacua has drawn a team-leading 12.0 targets per game and saw 15.0 in the team’s most recent outing. The receiver has delivered an absurd 4.11 yards per route run over 27.0 routes per contest on the season while drawing an 8.4-yard ADOT for a 36.08% air yards share but has somehow failed to score a touchdown so far this season. Nacua has posted a 20.69% explosive play rate on receptions this season, he gained 130 yards on 10 catches in Week 1 and had 112 yards on 11 catches in Week 2 with “only” 91 yards on eight catches in between. Nacua sees unrivaled volume in the passing game, he has massive potential in full-PPR scoring but looks just as good otherwise and is the leading standalone wide receiver on the slate while also playing a crucial role in stacks of Rams. Nacua is entirely playable alongside fellow high-volume high-quality receiver Davante Adams, who has fit right into the Los Angeles passing attack in his first season. Nacua is a go-to option in all situations across all formats this week.

Davante Adams is questionable to play on Sunday, but is expected to play after dealing with a hamstring injury this week. Adams is drawing 0.31 targets per route run for 10.5 chances per game, an outstanding 31.2% target share that, when combined with Nacua and Kyren Williams’ carries, does not leave many touches for the rest of this squad. Adams has delivered 2.27 yards per route run for the season while putting up a team-leading 11.5-yard ADOT and drawing a 47.22% air yards share. The veteran receiver has put the ball in the end zone twice this season, he should see ongoing value for scoring and has already seen an amazing eight red zone targets over just three games. Adams has been a primary target when scoring time arrives while Nacua is still out in the cold for touchdown catches, something to remember if only one click remains in a lineup. Adams is WR9 by points and WR13 by value on DraftKings, he is WR8 by points and WR16 by value on the FanDuel slate and is a standout play in and out of stacks on both sites.

Tyler Higbee is also questionable while dealing with a hip issue but he is expected to play with coaching unconcerned about his absence from practice. Higbee went untargeted over 19 routes in Week 1, caught four of four targets over 20 routes in Week 2 but gained just 37 yards and did not score, and then caught zero of his two targets over 21 routes run in Week 3, he is not off to the best start. The tight end has seen a pair of red zone targets on the season, he stands a chance to provide a cheap touchdown at worst and has been a quality pass-catcher throughout his career, peaking with five touchdowns in two different seasons. Higbee is a dart throw for value assuming he plays.

Despite playing 55% and 41% of the team’s snaps, Jordan Whittington and Tutu Atwell are limited to just 5.4% and 3.3% target shares in this offense, they see very few opportunities to provide quality and the frustrating down-chart touchdowns have actual gone to second-string tight end Davis Allen, who has scored twice on three catches to start the season. Allen played 22 snaps in Week 1 and 25 in each of Weeks 2 and 3, running 11, 4, and 6 routes respectively, and drawing two targets in the first game and just one in the next two. The tight end remains merely a dart throw at those types of unlikely touchdowns, but he would pick up value if Higbee happens to sit out.

The Rams are a high-quality option that is pulled to quality by the pass-catchers more than their quarterback. Los Angeles rates as Stack 3 by points and Stack 8 by value on DraftKings, they land as Stack 3 by points but dip to Stack 12 by value on the FanDuel board at higher prices. Stafford +2 stacks via the path of least resistance with the two top-end pass-catchers are the go-to here, particularly given the near-total wipeout they cause for target share.

 


New England Patriots

Game Total: 43.0 /NE -5.5 (24.25)

Offense: 39.18% rush / 60.82% pass / 20.0 ppg / 4.0 ypa rush / 7.4 ypa pass

oppDEF: 5.4 ypa rush / 6.1 ypa pass / 17.7 ppg / 1.00% sack / 4.04% int

Key Player: Drake Maye

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, Hunter Henry, TreVeyon Henderson (on/off), DeMario Douglas, Rhamondre Stevenson (on/off), Mack Hollins

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Tetairoa McMillan, Chuba Hubbard (on/off), Hunter Renfrow, Rico Dowdle (on/off), Tommy Tremble

Game Notes: 

Quarterback

Drake Maye has been a strong contributor early in the season with five passing touchdowns and another score on the ground while posting 7.4 yards per pass attempt and 4.1 yards per rush attempt. Maye has a solid multi-category skillset that should provide that type of scoring in an ongoing sense and he draws an outstanding matchup against a low-end Carolina defense that just beat us on an Atlanta play last weekend. We are more than willing to charge back into the breach with Maye and company against a defense that still ranks just 30th with 5.4 yards allowed per rush attempt but 11th with 6.1 yards allowed per pass. The Panthers have managed a hilariously bad 7.5% pressure rate and one lonely sack on the season, Maye should have all the time he needs to find his quality receiving options or create plays on his own. The quarterback rates highly on both sites, he is QB7 by points but QB1 by value on DraftKings and QB7 by point and QB2 by value on the FanDuel slate and should be heavily targeted for value on both sites at the helm of a stack that rates similarly.

Running Backs

TreVeyon Henderson has managed just 3.4 yards per rush attempt on 6.3 carries per game to start the season, hardly inspiring more faith than Rhamondre Stevenson’s 4.0 yards per attempt on his 7.3 opportunities per game. Neither of the Patriots running backs have shown quality this season but Henderson managed to out-snap Stevenson last week as the latter lost a pair of fumbles in Week 3. Henderson gained 28 yards on 11 carries and added 19 yards on 3-3 receiving over 19 routes run while playing a season-high 34 snaps with the offense in Week 3, his lack of production does not draw us to playing shares when he lands as RB19/17 and RB20/13 across sites, though he does pick up a tick of FanDuel value. Stevenson is lower-rated in the mid-20s in both categories on both sites.

Receivers & Tight Ends

Stefon Diggs slots in with a bit of anticipated uptick in production this week. Diggs has been limited over his first three games in this offense, he caught six passes for 57 yards in Week 1 and has failed to crack even 35 yards in the next two games. The veteran receiver has lost more than a step but he should provide value as the team spreads the ball around this season. Diggs has a limited 14.4% target share on 17.0 routes run per game, posting a strong return of 2.20 yards per route run to lead the team in a somewhat under-discussed mark. Diggs may not have shown a ton of quality for DFS scoring to date, but he has more than enough potential as an under-owned scoring option if this team connects for quality in an obvious spot. Diggs has seen a high-end 86.7% catchable target rate from Maye, the quarterback is finding him as a reliable connection despite the lower volume early in the season, it seems as though Diggs will be there for Maye when needed, giving him ongoing potential.

The standout option in the passing game in most people’s minds so far has been Kayshon Boutte, who had 103 yards on six catches over eight targets in Week 1 but dipped to just one catch for 16 yards in Week 2 and two catches for 28 yards in Week 3. He scored his lone touchdown of the season on the one Week 2 catch and has drawn just an 11.5% target share overall. Boutte operates on an appealing 15.1-yard ADOT that creates a generous 26.62% air yards share to sit second behind the team’s tight end, but the actual involvement has been light in two of three games. Boutte is a WR41/39 and WR40/34 who may become a bit overrated in public lineups that build around Maye.

Hunter Henry has outstretched the team’s wide receivers for a 29.7% air yards share on an 8.9-yard ADOT and a team-leading 21.2% target share. With no one else drawing even a 15.0% target share, Henry stands alone for reliability in the connection with Drake Maye. The tight end has a pair of touchdowns on the season, also a team-leading mark while three other pass-catchers have one each. Henry draws 0.29 targets per route run over 25.7 routes per game while playing 91.0% of the snaps in the offense, given the heavy volume, he is a premium option at the tight end position packaged as a value player. Henry is TE6 by points and TE5 by value on DraftKings and TE5/4 on the FanDuel slate.

DeMario Douglas slides in with a WR45/40 and WR48/44 ranking across sites this week. Douglas sees a 12.5% target share but has been delivered just a 53.85% catchable target rate that has limited his production to just 0.26 yards per route run for the season. Douglas does have a touchdown on the board but operates on an uninspiring 4.9-yard average depth of target that does not naturally lead to big scoring plays. The receiver is a solid mixer in the offense but he is mostly playable in Patriots stacks, his value is diminished as a low-probability scorer if we eliminate correlated potential.

Mack Hollins is an interesting dart throw for cheap depth, though he has drawn a limited 6.3-yard ADOT for the season after previously posting more deep-targeting numbers. Hollins has a cheap touchdown on the board already but sees just a 7.7% target rate in the spread-out offense. Similarly, Austin Hooper has a 6.7% target share with a 9.3-yard ADOT and no scoring, and Kyle Williams has picked up extremely limited targeting on just five routes per game.

The Patriots are Stack 18 by points but the scale the board to Stack 1 by value on FanDuel, they are Stack 18 by points but Stack 10 by value on the blue site with all of the pieces looking better within stacks rather than as standalone options.

 


New Orleans Saints

Game Total: 47.5 / NO +15.5 (16.0)

Offense: 49.03% rush / 50.97% pass / 34.0 ppg / 4.8 ypa rush / 7.8 ypa pass

oppDEF: 3.6 ypa rush / 7.6 ypa pass / 30.0 ppg / 8.25% sack / 0.0% int

Key Player: Spencer Rattler

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson, Brandin Cooks, Devaughn Vele (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: James Cook, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Joshua Palmer, Dawson Knox (on/off)

Game Notes: 

Quarterback

While words like “terrible” may not apply, Spencer Rattler has certainly also not been what experts call “good” to start the 2025 campaign. The quarterback has managed a +2.6 CPOE over 39.67 passing attempts per game, a minor accomplishment on an otherwise lackluster stat line. The quarterback has managed four touchdown passes against a single interception but he has largely been playing it safe with just 5.4 yards per pass attempt on 7.6 intended air yards per attempt. Rattler has thrown for 213.0 yards per game in low-end performances despite having high-quality skill players surrounding him. A better quarterback could lead this group to quality, particularly with Chris Olave looking healthy and solid, when he is not taking a moment to check in with the medical tent. Rattler is a lousy QB21/18 and QB21/21 across sites in Week 4, he is not a worthwhile consideration outside of filling out 150 lineups in a full GPP portfolio for large field play.

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara has lacked explosiveness with just a 6.0% explosive play rate and -0.5 yards above expectation per rush attempt on 3.7 yards per attempt this season. The running back still draws his premium volume, he carries the ball 16.7 times per game while picking up 3.5 targets per contest to put him right around 20 potential touches each week. Kamara has one rushing touchdown on the board but has not found the end zone in the passing game and needs those monster scoring days to truly make value at this stage in his career. There have been more recent underwhelming days from the veteran running back than explosive upside days, but every now and then he finds it. The Saints draw a Bills defense that is allowing 6.2 yards per rush attempt to sit at the bottom of the league over three games, there could be upside for old Alvin in this one. Kamara is RB11 by points but RB5 by value on DraftKings and RB12/15 on the FanDuel slate, his DraftKings scoring is bolstered by PPR potential.

Kendre Miller is a low-volume running back behind Kamara, he carries the ball just 5.7 times per game for 3.5 yards per rush attempt, he is a low-potential play that should not be considered outside of something befalling Kamara in the pregame.

Receivers & Tight Ends

Chris Olave has been one of the most frequently targeted receivers in the league over three weeks, drawing a 31.9% target share in this offense with 12.5 chances per game and 14 targets last week. Olave has not managed to put the ball in the end zone this season and has gained just a stead 1.34 yards per route run but he has posted a significant 41.0 routes run per game while playing most of the snaps alongside his quarterback. Olave caught 10 passes on 14 targets over 43 routes run last week but managed a mere 57 yards in the effort, the output for the targeting has been less than ideal but Olave is easily the team’s leading receiver and he has been targeted in the red zone four times this season, despite the lack of scoring. Olave has seen just a 62.16 catchable target rate from Rattler, the likely culprit for any underperformance. Olave is a fair play in and out of Saints stacks as WR17 by points but WR4 by value on DraftKings, he is WR21 by points but WR13 by value on FanDuel and is a good one-off consideration in lineups on both sites.

Rashid Shaheed is a downfield threat with a 22.95% air yards share on a 10.2-yard average depth of target over his 17.2% target share this season. Shaheed has gained just 1.1 yards per route run on the year and has managed just a 7.14% explosive play rate on the limited targeting but he does have a touchdown on the board early and was in the end zone three times in his six games last season with 349 yards and five catches of more than 20 yards out of just 20 receptions overall. Shaheed’s primary limiting factor will be Rattler’s ability to get him the ball, over three games the quarterback has managed just a 70.0% catchable target rate on throws to Shaheed.

Juwan Johnson is a premium tight end who can similarly be limited by the play of the team’s quarterback. Johnson draws 0.24 targets per route run or 10.0 per game on average, sitting second on the team with a 24.1% target share and first in the group with 1.52 yards per route run on the year. The tight end has an early touchdown on the board and he draws a fair chunk of the air yards at 18.41% despite just a 6.3-yard ADOT. Johnson scored just three times last year but he caught 50 passes for 548 yards over 17 games in a limited passing attack, his peak was seven touchdowns in 16 games in 2022. Johnson is a fair play as TE11/14 on both sites.

Brandin Cooks is ranked outside of the top-50 across the board at wide receiver on both sites. The veteran option is affordable but low-end with just a 9.5% target share on 36.3 routes per game with a 0.7 yprr. Cooks has played in all three games, not that you’d notice with three catches for 26 yards, two catches for 26 yards, and three catches for 24 yards.

The Saints are Stack 17 by points and Stack 19 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 19 by points and Stack 21 by value on FanDuel and likely play far better as a collection of individuals across other lineups than stacked together as a play built around Rattler.

 


New York Giants

Game Total: 44.0 / NYG +6.5 (18.75)

Offense: 37.77% rush / 62.23% pass / 17.3 ppg / 4.1 ypa rush / 7.1 ypa pass

oppDEF: 5.0 ypa rush / 5.5 ypa pass / 16.7 ppg / 6.14% sack / 2.80% int

Key Player: Jaxson Dart

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson, Cam Skattebo, Theo Johnson, Darius Slayton, Devin Singletary (on/off)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, Omarion Hampton (on/off), Tyler Conklin

Game Notes: 

Quarterback

The Giants have only reinforced the notion that they are a team without a plan by naming rookie late first-rounder Jaxson Dart as the team’s starter going into Week 4. The team was originally committed to a path that would allow the work-in-progress Dart to come along slowly, playing behind veterans of reasonable caliber in Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston, with Wilson getting the initial starting nod. Apparently, Dart learned everything he will ever need to know about NFL football in just three weeks because the organization is once again being run by WFAN sports radio callers and thrusting the rookie into action in a limited offense behind a leaky line. Dart rates as QB19 by points but the cheap price does land him as QB7 by value on DraftKings. He is QB19/12 on the FanDuel slate. Dart has appeal for his ability on the ground, if he can manage to find any kind of form in his first NFL start. The rookie will likely be over-matched against a Chargers defense that has generated a 21.3% pressure rate with seven sacks over three games. Dart does have one premium pass catcher and a quality rookie masher at running back on his side but it is unlikely to be enough.

Running Backs

Cam Skattebo is running away with the starting gig in the Giants backfield to no one’s surprise. The injury to Tyrone Tracy Jr. simply ushed in the inevitable sooner than later, Skattebo is the more productive more talented rusher who plays with the smashmouth style that the team is looking to dial-in. The running back has been wildly popular as an add in season long leagues and as a value option for DFS, he will only grown in exposure as his role continues to expand, one would imagine an uptick in touches is in the mix for Skattebo with his fellow rookie taking the wheel at quarterback. Over his limited action so far, Skattebo has gained 4.4 yards per rush attempt with an 8.7% explosive rush rate. The running back checks in as RB15/11 on DraftKings and RB14 by points and RB3 by value on the FanDuel slate where his $5,400 price has yet to catch up to quality or opportunity.

Devin Singletary is a low-end option from the bottom of the board who will see the backup touches behind Skattebo. The veteran has gained 3.0 yards per rush attempt and would need several things to go south before finding value, short of breaking one big run.

Receivers & Tight Ends

Malik Nabers remains the premium option in this passing game. The standout receiver draws a 31.4% target share to lead the team by a wide margin with 11.5 targets per game. Nabers has two touchdowns on the board over three games and has drawn three total red zone targets in early action. The receiver has posted 2.07 yards per route run on 40.3 routes per game, one of the leading volume options in all of football. Nabers operates on a premium 16.6-yard average depth of target that broadens to a gargantuan 56.68% air yards share over three games, Nabers is the do-all-end-all of downfield passing in this offense. The receiver is only limited by quarterback play, he saw just a 56.25% catchable target rate from Russell Wilson, it remains to be seen if Dart can provide anything better. Regardless, Nabers is in play as a standout standalone option as WR4 by points on both sites, though his value marks dip into the mid-teens.

Wan’Dale Robinson is the team’s second-most highly targeted receiver, pulling in a 21.6% target share and 26.52% air yards share, giving him and Nabers a full 86.2% of this team’s air yards on 53.0% of the targets. This is the most heavily-concentrated passing attack in football with no other option proving to be much more than a dart throw to mix things up. Robinson is a playable option who sees added value in full-PPR formats, he is WR29/35 and WR29/32 across sites.

Darius Slayton is the nominal third receiver for New York, he draws just 2.5 targets per game for a 7.8% target rate on a 10.5-yard ADOT. Slayton has failed to score on limited targeting, he is a very low-end option in a limited passing attack but Dart may find a better connection. Slayton is the longest-tenured Giants player, unfortunately his most productive season was his 2019 rookie campaign in which he caught eight touchdowns on 48 receptions of 84 targets. He has not been over four touchdown catches in any season since.

Theo Johnson has a 9.8% target share that does not put him among the appealing tight ends on this slate. He draws a 4.26% air yards share and has yet to score in the offense. Johnson caught one pass for 10 yards last week on 27 routes run, he peaked in Week 2 in Russell Wilson’s big 400-yard game with four catches for 34 yards but provided no fantasy quality. Johnson is TE19/17 and TE21/22 and is mostly off the board across sites.

The Giants are a lousy option for stacking as Stack 15/16 and Stack 15/14 with their unproven rookie taking over against a defense of reasonable quality. Jaxson Dart could come out firing in game one and provide value in conjunction with an obvious receiver like Malik Nabers but the paths to success for a full stack are more limited.

 


Philadelphia Eagles

Game Total: 43.5 /PHI -3.5 (23.5)

Offense: 54.10% rush / 45.90% pass / 25.7 ppg / 3.7 ypa rush / 6.2 ypa pass

oppDEF: 3.6 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass / 22.0 ppg / 7.27% sack / 0.98% int

Key Player: Jalen Hurts

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Jahan Dotson (large field), Will Shipley (on/off, large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Bucky Irving, Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin Jr., Cade Otton, Rachaad White, Sterling Shepard, Tez Johnson (large field)

Game Notes: 

Quarterback

The elite Eagles offense has posted 25.7 points per game to start the season, despite some visible limitations from either star players or play calling. Famously, the Eagles targeted star receiver AJ Brown just once in the team’s Week 1 game. Brown finally broke out for quality in Week 3, snapping back to life in the way we hope that all of the premium pieces on this team will in the coming weeks. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has been limited by volume with just 25.67 pass attempts per game on the season, he has a robust +6.9 CPOE mark but has thrown for just 159.67 yards per game with 6.2 per pass attempt and three touchdown passes. Hurts, of course, has no problem finding the end zone on his own. The elite rushing quarterback already has another four scores on the ground and can find paydirt multiple times without throwing the ball on any given slate. Still, we like the days when Hurts does a bit of everything. Week 3 was easily Hurts’ best performance of this season, he threw three touchdown passes while completing 21 of 32 passes for 226 yards to eek out a victory against the Rams. The quarterback added a fourth score on a rushing touchdown, putting up 40 yards on nine rushing attempts for the game. Hurts is an outstanding scorer at the position on any slate, he has individual potential and can be utilized in “naked” standalone shares, but functions better as a stacked option with his other elite touchdown-scoring teammates. The expensive quarterback is QB3 by points on both sites but dips to QB10 by value on DraftKings and QB8 by value on the blue site.

Running Backs

Saquon Barkley is an absolute superstar who had a season for the ages during his first run in Philadelphia in last year’s Super Bowl winning season, but what has he done for you lately? This is the thinking that we hope catches on around the industry to leave the spectacularly talented running back both underpriced and under-owned, even though the Tampa Bay defense has been tough against the run with just 3.6 yards allowed per rush attempt on the season. Barkley has managed just 3.3 yards per rush attempt in an undeniably slow start to the season but he still sees massive volume with 19.3 carries and 4.0 targets per game on the season. The running back has found the end zone twice on the ground despite the limited output, he is yet to score in the passing game and has lacked explosiveness in both departments but one has to bank on the return to form when considering a talent of this caliber. Barkley sees nearly unrivaled potential touches on a weekly basis, he loses a bit of potential touchdown upside with Hurts’ acumen for short yardage scoring but that hardly damaged Barkley’s output for DFS quality last season. The running back remains a premium player at a fair price, even with the lack of quality this season he lands as RB3 by points and RB7 by value on DraftKings and RB3/8 on the FanDuel slate, laying out much like his quarterback does across the boards on both sites.

Will Shipley is expected back in the offense this week after two DNPs. Shipley is a frisky option for backup running back shares behind a ludicrously high-volume running back, he saw five snaps with the offense and carried the ball three times while adding two routes run but going untargeted before exiting Week 1. The running back carried the ball just 30 times in 16 games as a rookie, gaining 82 yards and failing to score last season, he would need to break one big scoring play to really make value.

Receivers & Tight Ends

After two quiet weeks, AJ Brown exploded to life with 109 yards and a touchdown on six catches while seeing 10 targets over his 37.0 routes run. The receiver had just 27 yards on five catches despite drawing eight targets over 23 routes in Week 2 and just one catch for eight yards on his lone target in an absurd Week 1. Brown’s true weekly nature is that of the Week 3 receiver, he is a top-end threat who went over 100 yards in five games last season while scoring seven touchdowns in just 13 games. Brown gains 1.67 yards per route run on a 26.8% target share with a 39.4% air yards share as the leading option in this passing attack, he is WR8 by points and WR15 by value on DraftKings and WR9/23 on FanDuel.

DeVonta Smith is 1A to Brown’s 1 in most situations but he is an excellent option for a slightly lower price and slightly lighter public popularity most weeks. Smith draws 6.5 targets per game for a 25.4% target share that is nearly identical to Brown’s involvement. The receiver sees a healthy 9.4-yard ADOT for 34.58% of the air yards and has found the end zone once, again nearly identical output to his more expensive counterpart. The primary difference has been that Smith has seen a far better catchable target rate from Hurts at 88.9% against the mere 63.2% that has gone toward AJ Brown. Smith is terrific but Brown is the slightly higher-end option overall, they are playable together or separately in or out of stacks. DeVonta Smith rates as WR19 by points and WR14 by value on DraftKings, he is WR20/22 on FanDuel.

The third primary pass-catcher in the offense is tight end Dallas Goedert, who rates as a playable TE12/12 on both sites. Goedert can find a touchdown to make a better impact than that rating, he sees a stead 12.7% target share with 3.0 opportunities per game this season but has not been targeted in the red zone in his two outings. Goedert caught seven balls for 44 yards on seven targets in Week 1 but was limited to one catch, although it did go for a 33-yard touchdown reception, in Week 3’s return to action. The tight end is always on the board, he should return to steady involvement more along the lines of Week 1’s targeting over the coming weeks, he did run 33 routes on 60 snaps in Week 3 but drew only two targets.

Jahan Dotson is loosely playable, he saw 51 snaps with the offense in Week 3 and picked up three targets on 32 routes for one catch and seven yards, his second straight week with only one catch for single-digit yardage after an interesting Week 1 game that saw him post 59 yards on three catches. Dotson is a low-end option as an angle in for a potentially low-owned scoring play, he does have a red zone target on the board this season which keeps him alive for consideration in an otherwise limited role.

The Eagles simply have too much quality to drop far down the stacks board, in what could be an interesting matchup against Tampa Bay, they rate as Stack 1 by points on both sites while landing as Stack 6 by value on DraftKings and Stack 8 by value on the blue site. Philadelphia is a premium offense in a reasonable spot, they should be pushed by Tampa Bay’s scoring potential in a game they will want to win, the right recipe is in play for this team to deliver a quality performance through at least one of their many scoring mechanisms.

 


San Francisco 49ers

Game Total: 46.0 / SF -3.5 (24.75)

Offense: 40.59% rush / 59.41% pass / 19.7 ppg / 3.3 ypa rush / 7.3 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 5.7 ypa pass / 17.0 ppg / 4.84% sack / 5.93% int

Key Player: Brock Purdy

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Christian McCaffrey, Ricky Pearsall (Q, expected), Jauan Jennings (Q, expected), Jake Tonges, Brian Robinson Jr. (on/off), Kendrick Bourne (large field), Luke Farrell (large field), Kyle Juszczky (large field), Skyy Moore (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, Travis Etienne Jr., Brenton Strange, Bhayshul Tuten, Parker Washington, Dyami Brown

Game Notes: 

Quarterback

Brock Purdy is due back to action and free of the injury report going into Saturday, he will be on the field for the banged-up 49ers this weekend but what his passing options look like could be another story. Both Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall are questionable to play on Sunday, while tight end George Kittle and the team’s other pass-catchers of note remain on IR. Jennings managed to make it back to practice on Friday and has a bit of a chance to play, Pearsall was limited in practices late in the week as well and remains truly questionable with a knee injury. If one plays without the other he becomes a premium target option in this offense, if neither plays this offense suffers badly with newly signe Demarcus Robinson, Kendrick Bourne, and other low-end options taking over, though most of the touches would simply go to Christian McCaffrey. For his part, Purdy threw 35 passes in Week 1, completing 26 of them for 277 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions on the day. The quarterback is a quality passer at a fair price, he has a strong option in McCaffrey who plays up better than most running backs in stacking options. Purdy has a slate-leading +12.7 CPOE on the season, but that comes from a small sample size more than anything else. The quarterback lands as QB5/6 on DraftKings and QB5/1 on the FanDuel slate in one of the leading stacks of the week. The opposing Jaguars pass defense numbers have benefitted from facing lousy teams over the first three weeks, they currently rate fourth with 5.7 yards allowed per pass attempt and they have wrangled a whopping seven interceptions in early action but Purdy is far better than any of the quarterbacks they have seen to this point and they did allow Jake Browning to throw for 241 yards and two touchdowns in addition to the three interceptions he threw in his initial fill-in performance when Joe Burrow was injured. This is a potentially gettable defense that could create an underrated spot for Purdy+1 pairings with McCaffrey or Purdy+2 with any combination of the receiving group and McCaffrey as the go-to configuration.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey joins Saquon Barkley in the “underwhelming but give it a minute” department with just 3.4 yards per rush attempt on still-high volume of 17.3 carries per game, there is plenty of upside remaining. The superstar running back has a 9.62% broken tackle rate and just a 3.85% explosive rush rate while posting a -0.6 YPA over expectation per play and he has failed to score a rushing touchdown. Fortunately, McCaffrey has a receiving touchdown on the board to give him some scoring output over three games. The running back draws an elite 11.0 targets per game, massive for the position and for PPR scoring potential. McCaffrey hauls in 8.3 of those targets per contest, posting 6.7 yards per target and near-weekly upside for at least 100 yards from scrimmage. McCaffrey gained 52 yards on 17 carries and another 88 yards on 10-15 receiving over 59 snaps with the offense last week, though he failed to score. His lone touchdown came on a passing play in Week 2, he caught that target along with five others for a 6-7 day over 34 routes run, adding 55 yards on 13 carries over 55 snaps. Week 1 was much the same, the running back had a terrific 22 carries, posting just 69 rushing yards but adding 73 receiving yards with nine catches on 10 targets. There are few, if any, players quite like McCaffrey for DFS scoring potential, he is excellent in every facet of the offense and sees fantastic volume. Even if the low-end YPA number rushing is for real, the running back can simply overcome it via the volume grind, though he will obviously spike higher-scoring weeks when he breaks free. McCaffrey is a high-priority RB1 by points on both sites, he is RB3 by value on DraftKings and RB5 by value on the blue site.

Receivers & Tight Ends

Assuming Jauan Jennings takes the field, he should be considered one of Purdy’s top targets, which is also true of Ricky Pearsall. Jennings has a 13.6% target share and a limited 46.67% catchable target rate over the first two games of the season, he was out for Week 3’s action after posting five catches for 89 yards and his lone touchdown of the year in Week 2. Pearsall caught eight passes for 117 yards in Jennings’ absence and could see a similarly high rate of production if his counterpart is out for Week 4. The same is true in reverse for Jennings if he plays and Pearsall sits. Between the two, we continue to consider Jennings the somewhat superior talent. The receiver broke out with 975 yards on 77 catches with six touchdowns over 113 targets in by far his most involved season in the fourth year of his career last year and was thrust into a lead role in this offense after some offseason changes, he should see a chance to deliver. Pearsall, meanwhile, was limited to 11 games and 31 catches last season, posting 400 receiving yards and three touchdown catches. Pearsall is WR14/16 and WR16/8 across sites while Jennings is WR24/11 on DraftKings and WR23/17 on FanDuel, they both are strong options if they simply take the field.

Jake Tonges continues to be a middling option at tight end in place of George Kittle. Tonges has nine catches for a handful of yards on the season with a random touchdown coming in Week 1. The tight end saw three targets on 27 routes run over 45 snaps in last week’s game and shares time with Luke Farrell at the position. Farrell has seen fewer snaps and targets over the last two games but he caught the lone touchdown between the two, one of his two catches for 15 yards in Week 2. Tonges is TE18/21 and TE17/16 across sites, he is not appealing other than a cheap dart at a touchdown with low probability.

Kendrick Bourne is a depth option who has seen just an 8.2% target share. The team added Demarcus Robinson who should be active for Sunday as well, he has been included on the FanDuel slate and will be added to projections but should see only limited value, at best similar to Bourne. There is not much depth in San Francisco but the team peaks high.

The 49ers rate as Stack 2 by points and Stack 1 by value on DraftKings in Purdy’s return, they are Stack 2 by points and Stack 1 by value on the FanDuel slate, though those numbers dip on both sites in the absence of one or both of the wide receivers. Christian McCaffrey is an excellent option in any situation on either site.

 


Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Game Total: 43.5 / TB +3.5 (20.0)

Offense: 45.31% rush / 54.69% pass / 24.0 ppg / 4.5 ypa rush / 6.2 ypa pass

oppDEF: 5.1 ypa rush / 5.9 ypa pass / 21.0 ppg / 3.00% sack / 2.06% int

Key Player: Baker Mayfield (Q, expected)

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Bucky Irving, Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin Jr., Cade Otton, Rachaad White, Sterling Shepard, Tez Johnson (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Saquon Barkley, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Jahan Dotson (large field), Will Shipley (on/off, large field)

Game Notes: 

Quarterback

Baker Mayfield joined a growing list of injured Buccaneers during the middle of the practice week but is trending toward playing through a reported biceps issue. Mayfield got in a full practice on Friday and looks good to go barring a setback as of early Saturday morning. The quarterback has been a strong fantasy scoring performer to start the season, he has six touchdown passes on 6.2 yards per pass attempt with zero interceptions with a +1.0 CPOE. Mayfield throws steady volume with 33.0 pass attempts per game but it will be interesting to see what happens to that volume between his status, the absence of Mike Evans, and the return of Chris Godwin. Mayfield could deliver, he has been undeniable at the quarterback spot in recent memory and rates as QB9 by points on DraftKings and QB8 by points on FanDuel, with lower-quality value marks on DraftKings but not on FanDuel where he is an affordable $7.700.

Running Backs

The easy path to success with Tampa Bay could be to take the one guy who simply benefits from the banged-up status of everyone involved in the passing game. While Bucky Irving sees point scoring potential gains from the passing game himself, the running back would benefit greatly from an uptick in touches however they come, he has a dynamic skillset that led to a productive rookie season. In 2025, Irving gains just 3.1 yards per rush attempt but carries the ball 18.7 times per game, outstanding volume but limited production in an interesting wrinkle. The running back has not found the end zone but could be in line for significant output against an Eagles defense that is currently yielding 5.7 yards per rush attempt to sit 27th in football. Irving is a high-quality RB6/6 on DraftKings and RB9/4 on the FanDuel slate.

Receivers & Tight Ends

Emeka Egbuka should be considered the lead receiving option with no clear word on the expectation for Chris Godwin in his return. The injured star missed three weeks but got full practices in during this week and has been declared good to go, though that could mean for anything from a few simple decoy routes to critical red zone chances. Egubka is fully healthy and has provided quality in his first few games as a pro, putting up 1.72 yards per route run on 7.0 targets per game for a 22.3% target share and putting three touchdowns into the mix early in his career. Egubka has top-end potential, he will fill in nicely while Evans is gone but those are giant-sized shoes to fill in this offense. The receiver lands as  a premium play with big play upside on an 11.6-yard ADOT for a 28.65% air yards share and potential for more as the last man standing. Egbuka is WR12/31 and WR10/5 across sites, with slightly more value on the FanDuel slate.

Chris Godwin slots in as WR33/45 and WR33/41 across sites, he is returning from an ankle injury suffered in Week 7 of last season, putting him out of action for nearly a year. Godwin is an eight-year veteran who has had a tremendous career in Tampa Bay. The receiver gained 1,024 yards on 83 catches but scored just twice in 2023, his third consecutive year of more than 1,000 yards across from fellow 1,000-yard receiver Mike Evans, and his fourth such season in five years. Godwin has been diminished by time and injury but he caught 104 passes as recently as 2022 and should have upside for however many plays he is on the field for in his return. The exposure to action and the level of true readiness remain the questions with Godwin, if he is actually fully healthy he would be a strong buy at a cheap price.

Cade Otton is a reasonable pivot-point in the pass-catching game, particularly with missing pieces. There is some value in the simple trust and familiarity with the pass-catcher, even with Otton drawing just a 7.40% target share on the season. The tight end has a red zone target on the board that he did not convert but he should see a few additional opportunities in that department as time goes on. Mayfield may look in Otton’s direction with slightly more enthusiasm as Evan’s absence looms, depending on the game script. The tight end is TE17/20 and TE18/18 and is of limited value.

Sterling Shepard will continue to provide low-end third receiver quality in this offense. Shepard draws a 16.0% target share and returns a 1.59 yprr over three games this season, he is “OK” but not special across the board. The receiver has gotten downfield effectively for Mayfield with a 10.3-yard ADOT and 18.5% air yards share, giving him a touch of value. With Evans out, Shepard could be a path to a cheap low-owned scoring play but not much more.

Tez Johnson will join the fray as the fourth option at wideout. Johnson is cheap but low-projected and has seen just 29 snaps and two targets in Week 1 and Week 3 with a DNP in Week 2.

The Buccaneers are an interesting mixer of a stack, Bucky Irving is easy to reach on his own and stacks around Mayfield will probably be under-owned compared to their typical exposures, though the lack of Mike Evans is glaring. Tampa Bay is Stack 9 by points but Stack 22 by value on DraftKings, they are Stack 8 by points and Stack 9 by value on FanDuel this weekend.

 


Tennessee Titans

Game Total:  39.5 /TEN +7.5 (16.0)

Offense: 38.04% rush / 61.96% pass / 17.0 ppg / 3.8 ypa rush / 5.1 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.1 ypa rush / 6.4 ypa pass / 17.0 ppg / 7.76% sack / 0.93% int

Key Player: Cam Ward

Setting: exactly one

Team Group: Calvin Ridley, Elic Ayomanor, Tony Pollard (on/off), Chig Okonkwo, Tyler Lockett, Chimere Dike (on/off, large field), Van Jefferson (on/off, large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, Dalton Schultz, Nick Chubb, Woody Marks, Jayden Higgins, Xavier Hutchinson (large field), Jaylin Noel (large field)

Game Notes: 

Quarterback

Cam Ward has completed just 55.0% of his pass attempts with a -6.1 CPOE for the season. The rookie quarterback is going through some early growing pains with limited signs of quality, he has two touchdown passes and an interception in three games while throwing for just 5.1 yards per pass attempt on the year. Ward has at least demonstrated a growing connection with rookie receiver Elic Ayomanor in early action, which is something in a near total absence of quality otherwise. The quarterback managed his first game of more than 200 yards with 219 on 23-38 passing for a touchdown and an interception last week but that will not win a DFS slate at any price. Ward has failed to add any quality in the rushing game and has been a very limited passer, there is not much value in QB22/20 and QB22/22 across sites on a 22-quarterback slate.

Running Backs

Tony Pollard is a high-volume option at running back for a fair price, if nothing else. The running back gains just 3.6 yards per rush attempt and has yet to find an explosive run while breaking just 3.7% of tackles and gaining a mere 1.6 yards after contact per rush attempt. Pollard sees 2.0 targets per game and gains 7.2 yards per target but has also been limited overall for output in the passing attack over three games. Part of his limitation is situational, there is only so much that Pollard can do on his own if he is constantly in bad spots, but he has not done much to help in any situation. The running back draws a Houston defense that has allowed 4.1 yards per rush attempt and middling tackling metrics, he could find volume-based success as the most appealing part of this offense. Pollard is RB14/13 on DraftKings and RB15 by points while landing all the way up at RB9 by value on the FanDuel slate.

Receivers & Tight Ends

Calvin Ridley has been limited by a 57.14% catchable target rate on his 23.3% target share over three games, the rookie quarterback is simply not connecting well with the veteran receiver. Ridley sees 7.0 targets per game on an 11.2-yard ADOT, he has been involved in an attempt to get the ball to him, it’s just the actual delivery that has been spotty on his team-leading 34.47% air yards share. Ridley has unsurprisingly failed to score this season but he will find the end zone and has big play potential given the depth of his targeting. The receiver has a red zone target on the board but the rookie across from him has three and a pair of receiving touchdowns on the board already. If it is Ridley’s turn up for some chances in Week 4 he could provide interesting value as a low-owned receiver, though he has low-end marks across the board for shaking defenders early in 2025.

Elic Ayomanor has seen his popularity slowly grown as a waiver wire pickup across leagues and as a low-cost DFS play for a touchdown dart over the first three weeks of the season. Ayomanor is the clear number two option in the passing game and he has seen three red zone targets to Ridley’s single opportunity in scoring position. Ayomanor’s touchdowns have come against a 20.0% target share on a 33.72% air yards share with 6.5 targets per game. The receiver has delivered 1.19 yards per route run, which is not a special number, but his early productivity in and around the end zone is appealing and could lead to ongoing looks from his fellow rookie at quarterback.

Chig Okonkwo has a 17.8% target share for 5.5 targets per game but just a 9.18% air yards share and zero touchdowns on a 4.3-yard ADOT. The tight end is a mix-and-match option at the position in a weak stack, he is not a high priority on this slate.

Tyler Lockett has seen just an 8.9% target share as a total afterthought in an already limited offense, drawing just 2.5 targets per game and putting up a mere 0.63 yards per route run despite running 24.3 routes per game. Lockett is simply not seeing chances on the field and providing limited output in the few looks he has gotten, he is a lousy option for DFS quality in Week 4 as WR61/59 and WR67/68.

The Titans are an undesirable option at Stack 22/20 and Stack 21/19, there are a few individually playable options including Tony Pollard and the top two wide receivers but dependence on Cam Ward is not currently a great idea.

 


Washington Commanders

Game Total: 43.5 / WAS -2.0 (22.75)

Offense: 45.11% rush / 54.89% pass / 26.7 ppg / 5.7 ypa rush / 6.9 ypa pass

oppDEF: 4.0 ypa rush / 5.8 ypa pass / 19.7 ppg / 9.41% sack / 2.60% int

Key Player: Marcus Mariota (Jayden Daniels has been ruled OUT again in Week 4)

Setting: at least one / exactly two (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Team Group: Deebo Samuel, Zach Ertz, Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Q, expected; on/off), Luke McCaffrey, Jaylin Lane, Chris Rodriguez Jr. (on/off, large field), Jeremy McNichols (on/off, large field), Chris Moore (large field)

Opposing Setting: at most one / exactly one (these can be alternated in a variety of lineup builds)

Opposing Group: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts Sr., Darnell Mooney, Tyler Allgeier (on/off), Ray-Ray McCloud III

Game Notes: 

Quarterback

Jayden Daniels is officially out for Week 4, making this Marcus Mariota’s team for at least one more week in the sun. Mariota had an outstanding fill-in performance in Week 3, as mentioned in this space last week he has all of the tools necessary to run this offense effectively for the moment. Mariota proved that point by putting up 40 rushing yards and a touchdown on his six rush attempts while throwing for 207 yards and a touchdown on 15-21 passing. The quarterback did not set the world on fire for production with his modest numbers but he was poised and ready to run the offense as a meaningful contributor in his backup role, putting him far more firmly into play than lousy regular starters like Spencer Rattler and others. Mariota is QB17 by points but QB5 by value on DraftKings, he is QB15 by points and QB7 by value on the FanDuel slate, though his stack rates as lower-end play than that given the added absence of number one receiver Terry McLaurin this week.

Running Backs

Jacory Croskey-Merritt slots in as RB22/23 on both sites with expectations of steady ongoing volume in this ground game, though he is currently questionable to play. The rookie running back saw eight carries for 26 yards and a score in last week’s game and had an outstanding Week 1 with 82 yards on 10 carries and a rushing touchdown against the Giants. “Bill” will still have to deal with the presence of Chris Rodriguez Jr. – who scooped up 11 carries in his Week 3 season debut, rushing for 39 yards but failing to do anything else of note – and Jeremy McNichols who carried the ball just four times on 15 snaps with the offense but exploded for 74 yards and a touchdown with one big 60-yard scoring run. McNichols was also on the field for four passing plays on which he ran routes, though he went untargeted in the limited action. Overall it is Croskey-Merritt that we want, but Rodriguez Jr. that we might get more of again in Week 4, a frustrating situation that could use more clarity before we commit valuable lineup shares aggressively.

Receivers & Tight Ends

With Terry McLaurin out the primary option in this offense will easily be Deebo Samuel Sr. who drops into the action as WR15 by points but WR25 by value on FanDuel and WR15/10 across the FanDuel slate. Samuel was a forgotten man in the offense last week, gaining just 11 yards on two catches over three targets and running just 10 routes over 25 snaps with the offense, adding another 18 yards on three carries. The versatile point-creator checks in with seven catches in each of his prior games and 18 targets over those two outings, one more limited performance should not force anyone away from the explosive upside Samuel can provide. The receiver has a short-yardage 4.3-yard average depth of target that puts him in the thick of the action for yards after the catch, where he has gained 6.6 yards per reception after the catch, good for 0.7 yards per reception above expectation. Samuel is excellent with the ball in his hands and could see double-digit targeting with Noah Brown also out in Week 4.

Zach Ertz will be the second priority pass-catcher with depth receivers a distant third or fourth behind running back options. Ertz is a premium tight end when he sees volume, he has two touchdowns on the board already in 2025 and has drawn an 18.4% target share with a 7.5-yard average depth of target pushing him to 17.63% of the team’s air yards. The team is missing both of its primary downfield weapons in McLaurin and Brown leaving a massive gap on the air yards share board, both Ertz and Samuel will fill what they can but neither excels in shots down the field. Ertz is TE7/7 on DraftKings and TE6/3 on FanDuel this week, he is a go-to option with upside for touchdown scoring.

Luke McCaffrey picked up 21 snaps with the offense last week, drawing three targets over 11 routes run. While this is not exactly stunning volume it does represent a significant uptick in involvement for the receiver. McCaffrey caught all three of his targets for 56 yards and a touchdown as a low-owned low-cost option in a desirable stack last week, he could do the same with Marcus Mariota running the show again in Week 4 and several other pass-catchers out of action. The receiver has a 7.8-yard average depth of target on the season, he can extend that to fill the void left by the team’s deep threats, though Chris Moore is also capable in that regard with a 17.0-yard ADOT on his limited 1.4% target share to this point. Moore picked up one target for a 34-yard reception in Week 1, was a DNP in Week 2, then caught two passes for 25 yards while running 14 routes but drawing only those two targets. McCaffrey is the far more likely option but Moore is a big play dart to keep in mind for a lower-cost changeup.

Jaylin Lane is another mixer at the receiver position, he played just 14 snaps and drew two targets on 10 routes run in Week 3, catching one pass for -2 yards. Lane has three catches for a total of 11 yards over three games, he has been far from relevant.

The Commanders are an interesting play for value on one site with half the team missing in action. There are quality pieces who may go overlooked surrounding a still-capable veteran backup who showed quality just last week. Washington is nothing more than a interesting discussion as just Stack 20/19 on DraftKings but they are more in play as Stack 20 by points but Stack 13 by value on the FanDuel slate. Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz have individual playability in unstacked lineups with lower-end potential from the depth receivers in this offense.

 


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