The main NFL DFS slate features too many viable combinations to count in a lifetime, even when we eliminate several of the lower-end stacks we are left with possibilities galore at several positions. With NFL DFS picks, tips, tricks, touts, shoutouts, tweets, spreadsheets, slams, and sims coming from every direction all week, the purpose of this article is to feature a few plays for which our projections land above or below what appears to be the industry standard for the week, which will identify plays that are potentially over or undervalued by the public.

*note – despite the title of this article and what would probably be a more logical configuration, the “below” category comes first in the following content.

NFL DFS Sunday Main Slate Above/Below – Week 2

Below

Joe Burrow – Quarterback – Cincinnati Bengals – $6,300DK / $7,400 FD – QB18 points/QB26 value DraftKings; QB20/QB22 FanDuel

Quarterback Joe Burrow looked limited in his return to action, completing 21 of 29 passes for just 164 yards with no touchdown passes. Burrow put up just 5.7 yards per pass attempt with 5.6 intended air yards per attempt. The quarterback will be working with a depleted receiving corps for the second week in a row, Tee Higgins remains out, Ja’Marr Chase remains unhappy, and the balance of the receivers remains unproven. Burrow should improve upon a messy Week 1 as the season moves forward, potentially as soon as today, but we have him projected a few points below the industry average in a bit of a show-me spot against the rival Chiefs. Burrow will be facing a gettable defense that was ranked 17th last week, allowing 6.5 yards per pass attempt. In 2023, the Chiefs’ defense was excellent against the pass, ranking third with 5.5 yards allowed per pass attempt and just 1.1 touchdown passes allowed per game. Kansas City will keep Burrow on the move with their aggressive pass rush, he will lack the time to let things develop for the less-than-premium group of receivers and he no longer has a safety-valve at running back. Burrow will be hard-pressed to pay off big projections on Sunday, he ranks as a limited QB8/26 and QB20/22 on DraftKings and FanDuel respectively.

Javonte Williams – Running Back – Denver Broncos  – $5,500 DK /$6,000 FD – RB30 points/RB32 value DraftKings; RB31/RB29 FanDuel

Williams was a popular mid-round pick as a “sleeper” candidate in season-long drafts this season. The running back is inarguably talented but he was greatly diminished last season in his first year back from injury, the hope for 2024 is that another year of healing would vault Williams to former heights. In Week 1, Williams and dynamic backup Jaleel McLaughlin split 52% and 35% of the snaps for Denver respectively, with McLauhglin drawing more touches as the lower-owned less expensive option. Williams carried the ball eight times for just 2.9 yards per attempt and caught one of two passes for no gain. McLaughlin posted 2.7 yards per rush attempt on his 10 carries and caught all five of his targets but gained just one yard on a -4.2-yard ADOT, which means he was constantly receiving the ball in bad situations well behind the line of scrimmage. Between the two, it certainly seems like McLaughlin was the more favored playmaker in an extremely limited Denver offense. With the situation boiling down to “timeshare at best” this does not look like a good source of running back shares. Williams is RB30/32 on DraftKings and 31/29 on the FanDuel board, he is overpriced for the opportunity on both sites.

Devin Singletary – Running Back – New York Giants – $5,700 DK / $6,100 FD – RB23 points/RB23 value DraftKings; RB25/RB25 FanDuel

Singletary is playable but is not a top-end option as RB23/23 and RB25/25 in Week 2. The running back carried the ball 10 times for 37.0 yards and added another 15.0 yards on 4-5 receiving with a -3.0-yard ADOT out of the backfield in his Giants debut. While it is no fault of Singletary’s that he is attempting to fill a massive hole left by the departure of Saquon Barkley, the team has thrust him into an unfair situation with virtually no hope of success behind New York’s swiss cheese offensive line and with an extraordinarily limited quarterback at the helm. While we are expecting the Giants’ passing game to step up somewhat against the targetable Commanders’ pass defense, Singletary does not gain a significant boost in projections for Sunday. The running back has never had a 1,000-yard season in six years in the NFL, peaking at 898 yards with four touchdowns last year. His rookie campaign in 2019 remains the only season in which Singletary gained better than 5.0 yards per rush attempt, at 5.1. The back adds minor acumen in the passing game, Singletary has never caught more than 40 balls or gained more than 280 yards through the air, peaking at two receiving touchdowns in his rookie year. This is a limited back in a limited offense that will be compelled to throw the ball, he is projected well below the industry average in our model.

Lingering Lows

• Brock Purdy
• Malik Willis
• Trey McBride
• Bo Nix
• Geno Smith
• Rico Dowdle
• Zamir White
• Isaiah Likely
• Jonathan Taylor

Don’t miss our full breakdown in the Groups/Stacks article, complete with full game notes & stack rankings for every team

Above

Matthew Stafford – Quarterback – Los Angeles Rams – $6000 DK / $7500 FD – QB6 points/QB6 value DraftKings; QB8/QB6 FanDuel

In a game where volume is one of the most crucial factors, quarterback Matthew Stafford gains ground on some of his more well-off competition. Stafford has been one of the top quarterbacks of his generation and he still has gas in the tank and weapons to work with in the Rams’ offense. The quarterback threw the ball a slate-leading 49 times in Week 1. The veteran logged 317 yards, 6.5 per attempt, but only one touchdown and a bit of a limited 5.9 intended air yards per attempt, reflecting the catch-and-run nature of this offense. Stafford targeted star wideout Cooper Kupp 21 times, connecting for 14 catches, 110 yards, and a touchdown in Week 1. The tandem is an easy pairing in most Rams stacks and Kupp is a solid receiver who rates for an excellent game once again this week in the absence of running mate Puka Nacua. The team has a strong fill-in with Demarcus Robinson stepping into the second role in the offense. Robinson caught four passes for 42 yards in the season’s first week, last year he caught just 26 passes in 16 games but had a very strong 9.5 yards per target for the season, putting up 371 yards and four touchdowns in his limited role. Robinson is steady with sneaky potential in stacks of Rams that pair with Stafford. Colby Parkinson is an effective tight end, Kyren Williams is a star running back, and the team offers down-depth-chart weapons that can help Stafford claw his way to our above-industry-average projection this week as QB6/QB6 and QB8/QB6 around the industry, he is a good but not leading play at the position.

Derek Carr – Quarterback – New Orleans Saints – $5,300 DK /$7,200 FD – QB12 points/QB4 value DraftKings; QB14/QB14 FanDuel

Another veteran quarterback with weapons in his offense, Derek Carr threw for exactly 200.0 yards in Week 1 but was outstanding with three touchdown passes on 19-23 passing. Carr was diminished last season but he is primed for a bounceback in 2024 and he has star running back Alvin Kamara, a true WR1 in Chris Olave, and interesting options in downfield weapon Rashid Shaheed, who scored a touchdown in Week 1. Shaheed caught three of five passes for 73 yards, posting a 19.4-yard ADOT on 46.63% of the team’s air yard share. The Saints are not afraid to take shots down the field, Carr connected on deep targets with Shaheed and he was looking for tight end Juwan Johnson on a 14-yard average depth of target. Olave was limited in the season’s first week, catching both of his targets for just 11 yards and just 5.77% of the team’s air yards, he should be primed for a big bounceback in Week 2. Olave is WR14/12 and WR14/9 while Carr checks in as QB12 by points but an excellent QB4 by points-per-dollar value on DraftKings. On FanDuel, Carr is somewhat more limited as QB14/14.

Jordan Mason – Running Back – San Francisco 49ers – $5,200 DK / $5,500 FD – RB2 points/RB1 value DraftKings; RB2/RB1 FanDuel

Yes, this play worked in a big way on a Showdown slate in Week 1 with Christian McCaffrey succumbing to injury an hour or so before game-time. Mason was probably not as popular as he otherwise could have been in that single-game slate, he is a very talented per-touch running back. Per PFF, among the 77 running backs who carried the ball more than 85 times over 2022-2023, Mason ranked 3rd in PFF rushing grade, 2nd in yards after contact per rush attempt (3.7), and 2nd in yards per rush attempt (5.6). Mason carried the ball 28 times for 147 yards, 5.3 yards per attempt, and he scored a rushing touchdown in an explosive Week 1 performance that put him on the map. At just $5,200/$5,500, the sites did not react much to the running back’s talent or the now extended absence of the star in this offense. Mason is a smash-spot value option again this week, he will likely get popular at these prices and he is somewhat threatened for touchdown equity, given the team’s star-power and the presence of Deebo Samuel who already poached a rushing touchdown in Week 1, but Mason looks like a go-to value option once again today.

Daniel Jones – Quarterback – New York Giants – $5,300 DK / $6,900 FD – QB 9 points / QB1 value DraftKings; QB11/QB3 FanDuel

Daniel Jones is not a good quarterback but he has an outstanding matchup in Week 2. The Commanders were brutalized by opposing offenses through the air all of last season and in Week 1 of this year. Facing Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers, the Commanders allowed a ridiculous 9.3 yards per pass attempt, ranking 29th in Week 1. The team managed just one sack and did not come away with an interception, despite an aggressive 41.2% blitz rate and 35.3% quarterback pressure. Jones may be running for his life with the weak offensive line ahead of him against that blitz, but if he can create space or stay upright long enough to locate a receiver, he should have open options down the field. Jones is a very capable rusher for the position, it is his lone quality as a quarterback, so if he has to take off to avoid the rush he is capable of escaping or running designed rush plays. The quarterback has rookie Malik Nabers as his prime target, Nabers had an OK debut game, he failed to get in the end zone but did haul in five of seven passes for 66 yards and 9.4 yards per target on a 7.0-yard ADOT. Wan’Dale Robinson was heavily targeted in Week 1, he caught six of 12 passes. The Giants receiving corps leaves much to be desired, but the Commanders give up big games to bad teams. Jones also could connect with inexpensive new starting tight end Theo Johnson, who caught just one of four targets but played the bulk of the snaps for New York last week, and both Jalin Hyatt and Darius Slayton could get involved for deep targets. Jones rates very highly for value given the potentially explosive nature of the matchup, but this is in NO WAY a safe option, this is an extremely volatile play, Jones could easily throw for less than 200 yards and a few interceptions, matching his Week 1 performance.

Honorable Mentions:

• CJ Stroud
• DeAndre Hopkins
• Mike Williams
• Jameson Williams
• Xavier Legette
• Jauan Jennings
• Caleb Williams
• Tony Pollard
• Stefon Diggs
• Christian Watson
• Nico Collins
• Evan Engram
• Davaante Adams
• Brock Bowers

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