NFL DFS Main Slate – Above/Below – Key Plays for Week 14

The main NFL DFS slate features too many viable combinations to count in a lifetime, even when we eliminate several of the lower-end stacks we are left with possibilities galore at several positions. With NFL DFS picks, tips, tricks, touts, shoutouts, tweets, spreadsheets, slams, and sims coming from every direction all week, the purpose of this article is to feature a few plays for which our projections land above or below what appears to be the industry standard for the week, which will identify plays that are potentially over or undervalued by the public.

*note – despite the title of this article and what would probably be a more logical configuration, the “below” category comes first in the following content.

NFL DFS Sunday Main Slate Above/Below – Week 14


Bijan Robinson – Running Back – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,500/$7,100 – RB11 points/RB12 value DraftKings; RB11/RB10 FanDuel

Atlanta running back Bijan Robinson lands about 1.5 points behind the industry average projection in our model this week in a matchup against the Tampa Bay defense. Despite slipping in recent weeks, overall Tampa Bay has been effective against the run, the Buccaneers have yielded just 3.9 yards per attempt, the 10th-best mark in football. The team has kept opposing rushers under 100 yards per game, averaging exactly 99 yards allowed and 0.75 touchdowns on the ground per game this year. Tampa Bay has an opportunity to keep Robinson in check in what could be an ugly low-scoring slugfest of a game if they can manage to get back to form despite some missing pieces. The running back has undeniable talent, anyone who has seen him carry the ball more than once can tell you that, but his usage has been confounding this season and he has been limited in numerous appearances. Robinson now gets the majority of touches in the backfield, he carried the ball 18 times for 53 yards and caught 3 of 5 passes in Week 13 and he had a 16-carry game the week before, posting 91 yards and a touchdown, and he had a 22-carry 95-yard game with a touchdown in Week 10 before the team’s bye. Robinson is involved in the rushing and passing attack and he is a star-caliber talent, but he is drawing hype around the industry, and he does still cede a few touches to both Tyler Allgeier and Cordarelle Patterson throughout the game (he has been at 80% or so the past few weeks). With soaring popularity and a projection that lands as “good but not great” comparatively in our model, we are happy to undercut the field’s ownership projection on the player while still coming in with shares.

Stefon Diggs – Wide Receiver – Buffalo Bills – $8,800/$8,700 – WR6 points/WR43 value DraftKings; WR7/WR19 FanDuel

Star receiver Stefon Diggs leads the Bills passing attack against Kansas City this week, he is a very strong option for pairing with quarterback Josh Allen in the most heavily totaled highly anticipated game of the week. With all of that, Diggs lands about 1.25 points behind the industry average in our model this week. The Bills stack as a whole does not grade out quite as strongly as one might expect, The Chiefs have allowed a whopping 4.6 yards per rush attempt, the 28th-ranked mark in the league this season, but they have given up just 5.7 yards per pass attempt, which sits fifth. Additionally, Baltimore has 39 sacks with a 27.1% pressure rate, which should have Josh Allen operating in a bit of a hurry. Allen is a fantastic quarterback but he is a bit of a gunslinger, which can result in stunningly high or staggeringly mediocre and expensive results in any given week. Ultimately, the quarterback who has posted 7.4 yards per pass attempt with 24 touchdown passes this season outweighs the danger lurking in his 13 interceptions and Allen to Stefon Diggs is an elite combination in stacks in a vacuum, but we expect to undercut popularity on both options this week with multiple quality pieces available in the passing game for Buffalo. Diggs has been under 100 yards since Week 6 against the Giants and he has just three touchdowns over that six-game stretch with two low points of just 34 and 27 yards coming in Weeks 10 and 11. The receiver is a major weapon any given week, he could easily stand out from the crowd this time around, but he projects behind the curve in our model this week. The Bills stack ranks just 9/17 on FanDuel and 10/21 on DraftKings this week.

Lingering Lows

  • Zack Moss
  • Chris Olave
  • Mike Evans
  • Evan Engram
  • Josh Allen
  • Jake Browning
  • Desmond Ridder
  • Jerick McKinnon
  • Royce Freeman
  • Jahmyr Gibbs
  • Rashee Rice
  • Calvin Ridley

Don’t miss our full breakdown in the Groups/Stacks article, complete with notes & stack rankings for every team


Justin Fields – Quarterback – Chicago Bears – $6,800/$7,900 – QB1 points/QB2 value DraftKings; QB1/QB1 FanDuel

Justin Fields looks like a leading play as the top quarterback on our board for Week 14, we expect to be out ahead of the public on the popular quarterback play. Fields is drawing strong projections around the industry and he will be a popular quarterback option against the Lions in a good game environment, but we are getting him about 2.5 points beyond the industry average projections as our leading option at the position. We will have plenty of Fields and Bears stacks and expect to be ahead of public ownership across the board. Detroit has allowed just 3.8 yards per rush attempt, ranking sixth, but they sit 23rd with 6.8 yards allowed per pass attempt and they are second-worst on the slate with 20 touchdown passes allowed so far this season. Fields has an opportunity to post a very good fantasy score, he has a clear connection with first-read wideout DJ Moore, who he connected with for 114 yards and 11-13 receiving in the team’s most recent game. The tandem also had a 230-yard three-touchdown day in Week 5, and Moore had 96 yards with a touchdown on 7-9 receiving at Detroit two weeks ago. Fields adds to his individual appeal with his excellent ability in the running game, he has rushed for 400 yards on 9.6 carries per game this season, posting 5.2 yards per attempt but just one rushing touchdown so far. The quarterback makes a habit of posting big games against the Lions, this could be a solid shootout with Fields scoring fantasy points both through the air and on the ground.

Russell Wilson – Quarterback – Denver Broncos – $5,800/$7,400 – QB5/QB1 DraftKings; QB5/QB3 FanDuel

Russell Wilson has been an effective fantasy quarterback in the right games this season, he has thrown for just one touchdown in each of his three most recent games but he has added value in the ground game and has scored a rushing touchdown in his two most recent outings. Overall, Wilson has thrown 21 touchdown passes and just seven interceptions this season with a 6.9 yards per attempt average, solid numbers when taken as a whole. Courtland Sutton has overtaken Jerry Jeudy as the team’s clear number-one receiver, he has a touchdown in nine games this season and has scored in three of the team’s last four contests. Wilson has managed just 198.75 yards on average this season but he is capable of more against a very limited pass defense this week. The Chargers rank 28th with 7.2 yards allowed per pass attempt and they have yielded 15 passing touchdowns while managing 28 sacks on just a 16.6% pressure rate, which should allow Wilson the time to find his receivers. Wilson has two rushing touchdowns and 310 rush yards on the season, putting up 4.9 yards per rush attempt to pad his passing numbers, he has taken off with the ball 5.3 times per game on average. Denver could try to win this game on the ground, the Chargers are weak in both aspects of the game, but with Los Angeles expected to provide plenty of scoring output of their own and a 44-point total in Vegas, the under-valued Wilson side of this could hold value. We land roughly 2 points ahead of the industry average on Wilson’s projection this week. It is worth noting that Justin Herbert is a few spots down the board and also lands well above the industry average projection in our numbers, this is a high-value game with plenty of potential scoring in a light week.

Alvin Kamara – Running Back – New Orleans Saints – $8,200/$9,000 – RB2/RB9 DraftKings; RB2/RB5 FanDuel

New Orleans running back Alvin Kamara is one of the few healthy bodies the Saints are suiting up this week, though both Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson are expected to play. Kamara is a star talent who sees an absolute ton of volume in the average week. In the team’s Week 13 game he put up a pair of rushing touchdowns on 14 carries with 51 yards and he added another 58 yards on six catches in his eight targets. Kamara is highly targeted in the passing game, he has two weeks with 14 targets out of the backfield and he has not seen fewer than three targets since his return. The running back will pick up more than 20 touches and 25 potential touches most weeks and he has terrific touchdown upside, particularly with several weapons missing in the red zone. Kamara will get a great look at a Carolina rush defense that ranks just 19th with 4.2 yards allowed per rush attempt. The Panthers have given up a whopping 1.67 touchdowns per game on the ground this season with 125.17 yards per game allowed, Kamara has a chance to shine on the ground with whatever he manages in the passing game coming as a bonus, he is an expensive but high-quality purchase on this week’s slate and he is outside the top-10 most highly owned running backs on the slate, making him an excellent option for tournament play.

Honorable Mentions:

  • Jared Goff, Sam LaPorta, Amon-Ra St. Brown
  • Justin Herbert
  • Austin Ekeler
  • James Cook
  • Kyren Williams
  • Bills Defense
  • Tee Higgins
  • Elijah Moore
  • Adam Thielen
  • Brandon Aiyuk
  • Jakobi Meyers
  • Joshua Dobbs, Justin Jefferson
  • David Njoku
  • Odell Beckham Jr..

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