NFL DFS Main Slate – Above/Below – Key Plays for Week 13

The main NFL DFS slate features too many viable combinations to count in a lifetime, even when we eliminate several of the lower-end stacks we are left with possibilities galore at several positions. With NFL DFS picks, tips, tricks, touts, shoutouts, tweets, spreadsheets, slams, and sims coming from every direction all week, the purpose of this article is to feature a few plays for which our projections land above or below what appears to be the industry standard for the week, which will identify plays that are potentially over or undervalued by the public.

*note – despite the title of this article and what would probably be a more logical configuration, the “below” category comes first in the following content.

NFL DFS Sunday Main Slate Above/Below – Week 13


DeVonta Smith – Wide Receiver- Philadelphia Eagles – $7,300/$7,700 – WR18 points/WR49 value DraftKings; WR21/WR29 FanDuel

The Eagles are a fantastic team with a very strong passing game and DeVonta Smith is a significant part of that, but something has to give in a premium matchup of top NFC teams. Bedtween the two teams, the underdog Eagles are showing slightly worse in the NFL model for both sites, with both quarterback Jalen Hurts and Smith landing a bit below the industry average projections. Both players maintain very high-end scoring potential, including strong chances to lead the slate at their respective positions, but both come with potential flaws in this contest. For Smith, one of the primary potential downgrades is the upside that Hurts maintains in the rushing game, the quarterback is automatic from in close and has booked 11 rushing touchdowns on the season already. This has a bit of a downstream impact on the overall touchdown volume available to skill players like Smith, and the presence of premium teammates AJ Brown and De’Andre Swift also places a strain on the receiver’s touchdown equity. Smith has been very good this season, he had 106 yards and a touchdown on seven catches last week, hauling in all but one of his targets. He was targeted eight times the previous week and caught six of them for 99 yards and he had another game with 99 yards plus a touchdown in Week 8, giving him essentially 100 yards in three of the last four contests. Smith has three receiving touchdowns over the same stretch, he is a strong candidate to score but he will be facing a San Francisco defense that has held passing to just 5.6 yards per attempt and 213 yards per game this season. The 49ers have allowed just one passing touchdown each week, further cutting down the potential for multiple scores that would be needed to win a large field tournament. Perhaps the most limiting factor for Smith doesn’t even come on the field, the receiver is expensive at $7,300/$7,700, he ranks 49th by points-per-dollar on DraftKings and 29th on FanDuel. Smith remains a priority option when stacking Eagles and this is a very high-end game, but Philadelphia is facing a tough defense and we are coming up a bit behind the field in the projection and, likely, overall exposure.

Najee Harris – Running Back – Pittsburgh Steelers – $5,200/$7,200 – RB22 points / RB10 value DraftKings; RB22/RB23 FanDuel

After featuring Jaylen Warren as a “below” last week we are flipping things and picking Najee Harris as the face of the team’s two-headed backfield this week. Harris and Warren are in a pretty direct job share, in the team’s Week 12 game Warren played 33 snaps with the offense to Harris’ 36. The minor discrepancy in snap count came in spite of reporting that the exact opposite would be the case, by all accounts Warren was to see an uptick in volume in last week’s game. Looking at the numbers, Harris carried the ball 15 times and posted 99 yards and a touchdown but he was untargeted on his 13 routes run. Meanwhile, Warren had 13 carries and added three catches on three targets, putting him one total touch ahead of his counterpart. Warren costs $5,400/$6,500 to Harris’ $5,200/$7,200 this week, both backs have shown the ability to deliver playable fantasy scores in the same game, but the split is not ideal overall and Warren has been the more frequently productive and the more involved in the passing game of late. Harris put up just 35 yards on 12 carries in Week 11 but he did have a touchdown in each of Week 9 and Week 10, carrying the ball 16 times per contest. Overall, the price is not bad and Harris has the potential to score against a bad Arizona defense that will be a popular value play, but there is only limited certainty of volume, let alone scoring potential. Harris picked up three carries in the red zone last week but Warren matched that total. Working in favor of both options is that Arizona’s defense has allowed 4.2 yards per rush attempt, 140 yards per game, and 1.33 touchdowns per game this season. Still, if we are picking between the two, Warren lands as the slightly more appealing option but still ranks as just RB13/5 on DraftKings and RB13/7 on FanDuel.

Kyren Williams – Running Back- Los Angeles Rams – $7,200/$8,500 – RB9/RB12 DraftKings; RB7/RB13 FanDuel

Kyren Williams has seen fairly heavy involvement when healthy so far this season. The running back returned to action last week after four straight DNPs and a bye week, he immediately carried the ball 16 times for 143 yards and added six catches for 61 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Those kinds of returns on a running back are spectacular, Williams projects well for his role this week but he is expensive across sites, showing more raw points than points-per-dollar value on both sites against a good Cleveland defense. Williams is also dealing with a bit of a split workload with lingering Royce Freeman who is giving the team quality touches at the position as well. In last week’s game, Freeman posted 77 yards and a touchdown on his 13 carries while going untargeted on eight routes. The running back played 23 snaps, down from the 36 he saw in Williams’ absence the week before in a game in which he carried the ball 17 times for 73 yards. With a bit of volume and three red zone carries going in Freeman’s direction with Williams playing, there has to be a bit of concern about a return to a ceiling score for Williams. The expensive running back rates well by fantasy point projections on both sites he is a top-1o raw scoring option but he slips outside of that range by points-per-dollar value on both sites and we land about a point behind the industry average projection on the talented running back. While we will have shares of Williams, it seems likely that we will be behind the field’s ownership this week.

Zack “good chalk” Moss – Running Back- Indianapolis Colts – $4,600/$5,600 – RB4 points/RB1 value DraftKings; RB2/RB1 FanDuel

Zack Moss is the “good chalk” value play of the week at his comically low price points, he projects very well for raw scoring and has the potential to explode at the running back position in a points-per-dollar sense. Moss’ value should be clear from his RB1 points-per-dollar ranking on both sites, but it would defeat the purpose of this article if we did not also highlight that, while he lands like a fantastic play in our projections alongside where the industry has him, Moss does fall nearly 1.5 fantasy points behind the industry average in our model for Week 13. The talented running back was the featured option for the Colts early in the season and he will return to that role in the absence of teammate Jonathan Taylor, he has a clear path to 20 touches this season and he has demonstrated the ability to post a slate-winning score with that volume. In fact, his best game of the season came in Week 5 against this very defense, with the Titans giving up 165 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries. Two weeks prior, Moss carried the ball 30 times for 122 yards. In more recent outings, Moss has been limited by the presence of Taylor, he carried the ball eight times for 55 yards in last week’s game but just once for two yards in Week 10 and seven times for 26 yards in Week 9 against a weak Carolina rush defense. Moss will be the most popular player on both sites and it is critical that we stress that he will be in a significant portion of our lineups, he is too good a value option to avoid. But between landing behind the industry projections and the presence of a Tennessee defense that, for as bad as it may have been against Moss in Week 5, has allowed just 3.9 yards per rush attempt and 0.73 touchdowns per game this season, we are not as certain of success with the play as some may be around the industry.

Lingering Lows

  • Jahmyr Gibbs
  • Bijan Robinson
  • Chris Olave
  • Taysom Hill
  • Baker Mayfield
  • Austin Ekeler
  • Chuba Hubbard
  • Jerome Ford
  • Dameon Pierce
  • Cooper Kupp

Don’t miss our full breakdown in the Groups/Stacks article, complete with notes & stack rankings for every team


Tua Tagovailoa – Quarterback – Miami Dolphins – $7,900/$8,400 – QB1 points/QB4 value DraftKings; QB1/QB1 FanDuel

The Dolphins are the highest priority stack of the week in a matchup against a Commanders defense that has allowed a slate-high 28 passing touchdowns on the season. Washington has yielded 7.5 yards per pass attempt and 264.5 yards per game this season with a 9.4-yard defensive average depth of target, all of watch plays directly into the hands of the Dolphins high-pressure high-speed attack. Miami is throwing the ball 35 times per game for 8.5 yards per pass attempt and Tagovailoa has 22 passing touchdowns on the season, many of which have gone in the direction of our next featured player. Tagovailoa has taken a big step forward this season, he has five games with more than 300 yards passing and at least three touchdowns in four different games. The quarterback has a 7.4-yard intended air yards per pass attempt mark that grades out well and he has established a terrific connection on routes with both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. While the Dolphins lack a truly competent third receiving option or a strong tight end, they pick up value in the speedy options out of the backfield, with both Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane playable in team stacks. The priorities are the two dynamic wide receivers, Waddle has three receiving touchdowns and 9.2 yards per target with 52 catches on 75 opportunities for 691 yards over his 10 games. Hill is our next featured option, he is the primary receiver and the top pairing with Tagovailoa but one or the other should be in the majority of builds with this quarterback. At an expensive but easily worthwhile price, we are a full two points ahead of the industry average on Tagovailoa’s projection, he will be our highest-owned quarterback of the week and our go-to option in single-entry contests regardless of popularity.

Tyreek Hill – Wide Receiver – Miami Dolphins – $9,600/$10,000 – WR1/WR1 DraftKings; WR1/WR1 FanDuel

Where Tua goes, so goes Tyreek. Or perhaps it is vice versa if we’re being honest. Hill is one of the fastest men in football, if not the pure speed leader in the sport. The receiver operates on a different plane than most defenders with his elite separation skills and he breaks big plays with regularity. Coming into Week 13, Hill already has 1,324 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. He could stop playing for the rest of the year and it would not look like a statistical oddity in his career season log. He had three fewer touchdowns in 17 games in a full season last year and put up just 1,239 yards and nine touchdowns on 111 catches his last year in Kansas City in another 17 games. Hill has already seen 120 targets this season, delivering 11 yards per target, he is expensive but easily worthwhile, this is what rostering all of those Zack Moss shares helps pay for, there is no more elite option on the board this week. Hill and his mates are facing a very weak pass defense that should allow them to march up and down the field scoring touchdowns at will, and there is enough on the Washington side to believe that they will hold serve at least a few times and keep the game script going into the second half. There is multiple touchdown upside and the potential for 150 yards or more on the board for Hill this week, but that makes it just another week in his amazing season. We are closer to the field on the receiver’s projection with a separation of about 1.25 fantasy points over the industry average.

Brock Purdy – Quarterback – San Francisco 49ers – $6,100/$7,800 – QB2/QB1 DraftKings; QB2/QB2 FanDuel

In multiple weeks this season we are on record saying that Brock Purdy is more the product of his amazing set of skill players than of his own actual talent, but the quarterback has refused to go away and he has posted several weeks with significant fantasy scores. While that point still stands, it also does not matter why Purdy scores fantasy points, just that he does so, and he is slated to score more than his fair share this week against a deceptively targetable Eagles pass defense. Just like with Buffalo last week, we will be looking to exploit the edge found in the 23 touchdowns and 255 yards per game that Philadelphia has allowed in the passing game so far this season. The touchdown total ranks second-worst on this slate and the yardage mark is not far behind, though Philadelphia does have 32 sacks with a 24.8% pressure rate this season. Meanwhile, Purdy has thrown the ball 27.5 times per game for 19 touchdowns and a whopping 9.7 yards per pass attempt. While the initial inclination is to write off the slate-leading yards-per-attempt mark as the product of yards after the catch, Purdy’s intended air yards per attempt sits at 8.1 yards, the fifth-highest on the slate. The quarterback is inexpensive for his ceiling potential, he ranks as the top option for value on DraftKings and second on FanDuel, joining his elite quartet of teammates in a stack that sits second by four-man scoring potential on both sites in our rankings and fifth by points-per-dollar value on DraftKings (second on FanDuel). Purdy has the opportunity to pair very well with star Christian McCaffrey out of the backfield, tight end George Kittle is the leading player at his position for raw fantasy scoring, and both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are highly projected options with excellent scoring potential. The 49ers are a go-to option on this slate where the Eagles are slightly behind the pace in our model, but we will have shares of both teams in play and mixing the two with bring-back plays is not a bad option.

Rachaad White – Running Back – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $6,300/$7,500 – RB5/RB3 DraftKings; RB5/RB5 FanDuel

Tampa Bay running back Rachaad White continues to impress this season. The versatile high-volume back was more limited in targets with only two in Week 12, but he carried the ball 15 times and put up another 110 yards from scrimmage. White was targeted seven times the week before and he has seen 33 targets in the seven games since the team’s bye week, catching 30 of them. White has major volume potential any given week, in addition to the targets he had two games with 20 carries each in that same stretch and he has frequently been at or around 100 combined scrimmage yards from week to week. White is facing a Carolina defense that has been surprisingly decent against the pass but weak against the run this season. The Panthers have given up just 6.1 yards per pass attempt and 179.64 yards per game this season through the air, allowing 13 touchdowns on the season, they are far more targetable on the ground. Carolina has been gouged for 4.3 yards per rush attempt and 129.27 yards per game with a slate-worst 1.64 touchdowns per game allowed on the ground this season. White is not entirely alone in the Tampa Bay backfield, but he is a value and volume-based player who has seen roughly 20 touches a week for the bulk of the season at this point, with that much opportunity against a rush defense this poor there is value to spare.

Derrick Henry – Running Back – Tennessee Titans – $6,800/$8,200 – RB6/RB7 DraftKings; RB4/RB9 FanDuel

In a game with all eyes on the running back position, the field may simply be looking at the option from the wrong sideline. Titans star Derrick Henry will be facing a Colts defense that has given up 4.1 yards per rush attempt and 129.27 yards per game with 1.36 touchdowns allowed per week. The running back does not exactly land as a value play at his pricing, but he is a top-10 option on both sites by both raw fantasy points and points-per-dollar, and we know there is an extreme ceiling on the right week. While we have not seen the absolute apex version of Henry this season, we are not seeing a bad version of him either. The running back regularly sees 20 or more touches in the offense and he has been over 100 yards rushing twice this season with several games in the 60-80 yard range. Henry is currently putting up 4.2 yards per rush attempt and he has scored six times this season, which is a downturn from the 1,538 yards and 13 touchdowns he posted on 349 carries in 16 games last year. There are few players in this price tier who can provide the ceiling that Henry possesses at the running back position, he has a fair chance to bend the slate with a good performance today. We land more than 1.5 fantasy points ahead of the league average for Henry’s projection this week and the expectation is to be well ahead of the field’s ownership on the FanDuel slate.

Honorable Mentions:

  • Nico Collins, Noah Brown, Robert Woods, Tank Dell (aka Houston passing game)
  • Russell Wilson
  • Brandon Aiyuk
  • Michael Pittman Jr. (if Zack Moss fails it could easily be because Indy leans into the passing game against a Titans defense that is tough against the run and flops against the pass)
  • Jahan Dotson
  • Pat Freiermuth
  • Deebo Samuel
  • Breece Hall
  • Royce Freeman
  • Josh Reynolds
  • Kyler Murray
  • Bryce Young/Adam Thielen (don’t like it but points are above the average against a bad pass defense, probably just leads to a Thielen play)

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