The annual MLB Home Run Derby has been a fixture of the Mid-Summer Classic for more than 40 years, first debuting in 1985. The Derby has undergone major changes over the years, with a fluid format constantly in flux. This year is no exception, the 2026 MLB HR Derby rules have undergone major changes for the event’s big Netflix debut in front of what should be additional eyeballs. This special feature breaks down the important rule changes, takes a look at the ballpark, and dives into each hitter’s profile and history, with the goal of finding the best picks for any HR Derby prop bet or Home Run Derby pool picks.

MLB Home Run Derby: 2026 MLB HR Derby Overview

Rules

The rule changes for this year’s Derby are significant. Gone are the concepts of timed rounds, swings that do not count, outs, or seemingly unlimited opportunities. The 2026 format will operate on strict swing counts for each round, with reductions as rounds advance. The rules for the 2026 MLB HR Derby are as follows:

• Swings are strictly limited in an untimed at bat with no outs, all swings count toward the cap regardless of the result*
  • Round 1: 20 swings
  • Round 2: 15 swings
  • Finals: 15 swings
  • *Players can continue to swing if they hit a home run on the final swing of any round, and can continue to swing until they fail to hit a HR
• There are no bonus balls or swings
• The first round is an open format, after which hitters will square off in a bracket for the final two rounds
  • Players will be seeded by first-round totals with the highest total facing the lowest and the middle two facing-off
• Tiebreakers are different for the first round and the final two rounds
  • Round 1 Tiebreaker: Home Run Distance
  • Round 2 & 3 (head-to-head) Tiebreaker: Three-Swing Swing-Off

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MLB Home Run Derby: 2026 MLB HR Derby Ballpark

Citizen’s Bank Park in Philadelphia will host the Derby this year. The ballpark is renowned for providing a general boost to offense, playing to an overall Park Factor of 102 over the past three seasons against hitters on both sides of the plate. The park typically favors left-handed power, rating well above average for home runs to lefties over the last three years, while actually slightly limiting right-handed power. With the 2026 HR Derby featuring five lefties and only three righties, this could be an important factor in hitter selection that will also drive odds and popularity, to a degree. A light breeze with slight gusting out toward right/right-center will only help matters.

MLB HR Derby Weather Conditions

per: AccuWeather.com

note: Citizen’s Bank Park faces toward the North, a breeze blowing from the South/Southwest will be heading toward right/right-center and favoring left-handed hitters

MLB HR Derby Park Factors: Citizen’s Bank Park

all park factors and park images per: Statcast

Left-Handed Hitters

Right-Handed Hitters

MLB Home Run Derby: 2026 MLB HR Derby Participants

The field for the 2026 Home Run Derby is absolutely loaded with talent and star power, including two hometown heroes for the Philadelphia fans. The board features a who’s-who of those who wield some of the most impactful swings in baseball. The participants mix between three right-handed stars and five lefties, with both Bryce Harper and odds-on favorite Kyle Schwarber playing in their friendly hometown ballpark. As seen above, Citizen’s Bank Park generally favors left-handed power but the Home Run Derby tends to operate by different rules, considering the batting practice or even backyard level of pitching and premium contact.

The board below includes basic information for home run totals for the past three seasons for each star (those who were in the league), as well as relevant 2026 statistical information. The included statistics are Barrel Rate, Hard-Hit Rate, Average Exit Velocity, Maximum Exit Velocity, Average Bat Speed, Fast Swing Rate, and Ideal Attack Angle Rate, as well as the player’s odds per DraftKings’ Sportsbook on Monday afternoon.

Kyle Schwarber, LHH – Philadelphia Phillies – +285

An absolute statistical beast of a three-true-outcomes hitter, Kyle Schwarber is the odds-on favorite to win the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby at +285. Schwarber leads all of baseball with 32 home runs in his 414 plate appearances before the All-Star Break this season. The Philadelphia slugger blasted 56 long balls in 2025 and 38 the season before and has made a career feasting at the plate with his fantastic ability to find the barrel. Schwarber comes into the break with a 19.3% barrel rate and 53.14% hard-hit rate while generating more than 93mph of exit velocity and peaking at 113.2 mph. While Schwarber’s exit velocity marks slightly trail several of tonight’s participants, he more than makes up the gap in his approach. Schwarber’s 68.32% ideal attack angle on the season not only leads tonight’s board by more than five percentage points, it leads all qualified hitters across baseball. Given the ability to find his home runs slightly more from approach than brute blasting power, Schwarber gains a minor true edge over some of the robust competition and could easily run away with tonight’s Derby. The Philadelphia star is an easy and obvious choice, he will be popular in any format and is the likely first man off the board or most expensive bid in any pool format.

Junior Caminero, RHH – Tampa Bay Rays – +360

While the ballpark may favor left-handed bats overall, there is nothing that should detract from burgeoning superstar Junior Caminero’s upside for a 2026 Home Run Derby victory. Caminero rates 10th in baseball with a 62.97% ideal attack angle on the season, and his 28 home runs to date are tied for fifth in baseball and land behind only Ben Rice and Yordan Alvarez in the American League. Prodigious power makes the Rays star a popular pick for the “Future Hall of Famer” discussion, he has mashed 80 home runs in 1,277 plate appearances over his two full seasons and change. Caminero’s star power shines brightly enough to carry the Tampa Bay lineup with limited help from the team’s two other stars atop the order and a mixed-bag of create-a-player types. The third baseman comes into tonight with a 13.6% barrel and 51.61% hard-hit rate supporting the upside for ongoing premium contact through the rest of 2026. His 116.90mph mark for maximum exit velocity this season leads tonight’s participants. Caminero will be a highly popular choice at the second-lowest odds on the board tonight, it would be something of a surprise if he fails to make the head-to-head rounds, and a fireworks show should be the expectation.

Munetaka Murakami, LHH – Chicago White Sox – +600

With Schwarber and Caminero creating a bit of separation at the top of the board, White Sox breakout rookie star Munetaka Murakami seems like a terrific option in any format. It seems safe to consider that Murakami would have been at far less appealing odds and a more likely first overall pick from this group as recently as six weeks ago, prior to his injury. Murakami burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2026, but he is no newcomer to high-level competition. The Japanese superstar made his debut on the NPB stage in 2018 when he was just 18 years old, blasting a lone home run in his 14 plate appearances. Murakami’s first full season came the following year at just 19 years old, he did not disappoint. The slugger began his career in the planet’s second-best league with 36 home runs in 593 plate appearances in 2019, he has not stopped mashing since. Murakami went on to hit 246 NPB home runs in 3,780 plate appearances by the time he was just 25. Not a single beat was missed in terms of skills in Murakami’s MLB debut in 2026, he has 20 home runs in 259 plate appearances and would have hit more had he not lost time to injury. His 20.0% barrel rate and 59.20% hard-hit rates both lead tonight’s group of hitters. When considering the list of home run hitters and superstars at the plate tonight, that is a special indicator. The lefty has more than enough thunder in his bat for a win in tonight’s Derby, he is a perfect selection that could break the hearts of those who quickly grab for the shiny object in Kyle Schwarber.

Jordan Walker, RHH – St. Louis Cardinals – +700

We wrote this about Cardinals breakout star Jordan Walker’s 2026 potential in our 2026 MLB Season Preview article during Spring Training:

To say that Walker has more than exceeded even our excessively optimistic outlook in 2026 would be an understatement. Depending on format, the previously underrated and under-appreciated Walker is in or close to the top-10 overall fantasy contributors in any season-long league. While Walker’s home run total falls a bit short of the very best on the board, his raw power is outrageous and rivals or exceeds that of anyone in tonight’s competition. Walker has 22 home runs while slashing .294/.354/.532 on the season, and his 94.15 mph average exit velocity for 2026 tops the board among tonight’s entrants. The St. Louis star has a 116.60 mph maximum exit velocity that sits below only Caminero’s biggest blast of the season. Walker will be a sleeper play tonight from the middle of the board, his +800 odds make for a great payout if he manages to win, and he will be far less popular in a draft or picks format than bigger names from New York, Philadelphia, and Chicago. While every Home Run Derby seems to have a player disappoint with a complete bust, Walker seems unlikely to be that player tonight. He may not win, but he should at worst go out with a major bang. We expect to see Jordan Walker in the head-to-head rounds tonight.

JAC Caglianone, LHH – Kansas City Royals – +800

Yes, JAC. Even if the player and MLB do not acknowledge the acronym (Jeffrey Alan Caglianone) we care about that sort of thing around here. Caglianone might be the lowest-profile player on tonight’s board. As a member of the Kansas City Royals, Caglianone plays in a somewhat smaller market and he is a far less-established star than his competition. At +800, the lefty thumper is an interesting choice tonight. Caglianone has only recently gotten the engine going when it comes to results, finally cashing in on his season-long 14.7% barrel and 55.96% hard-hit rates. While his total of just 15 home runs this season may look light compared to the competition – he is five lower than the three players tied with 20 apiece – sharp gamers will not sleep on the left-handed threat when it comes to upside and an interesting payout. However, while Caglianone has true raw power that he has only begun to tap at this level, if we are calling out concerns we must mention his slate-low 43.43% ideal attack angle rate. That mark trails everyone on the board, falling roughly four percentage points behind next-lowest man, Bryce Harper. While tonight’s swings are nowhere near game conditions, the slightly lacking approach could be the one indicator that avoids a bust of a pick. Caglianone has clear event-winning potential, his power is very real and he benefits from hitting left-handed, but this is his first time on a major stage as well, if we are picking one hitter to disappoint tonight, this may be the hitter.

Ben Rice, LHH – New York Yankees – +900

If the NBA Championship winning New York Knicks are any indicator, fans will travel to Philadelphia to support their NY heroes. Yankees star Ben Rice should benefit from a bit of support, though the locals in Philly will surely have something loud, creative, and likely unprintable to say about that idea. Ben Rice slides into the bottom part of the board tonight at +900 despite a near relentless run of power output since his debut. Rice has 29 home runs on the board already this season, trailing only Schwarber among tonight’s hitters and sitting third across MLB (Yordan Alvarez, 31). It is fair to think that Rice would have more home runs and better overall numbers had the Yankees not lost superstar Aaron Judge and several other key bats in recent weeks. While it is impossible to prove, Rice did experience a bit of a statistical slump with “only” six home runs and a more indicative .196/.274/.382 slash in the month of June. Rice has already corrected things, he already has six more home runs on the board in July. The first baseman benefits from a patient approach at the plate and a tremendous eye, though we have seen patience be a surprisingly limiting factor for some hitters in the HR Derby in years past. Rice has a 14.9% barrel rate on the season but slips a bit with a good-not-great 47.58% hard-hit rate. The lefty drives the ball effectively with a 92.14 mph average exit velocity but, so far, has a lower peak than anyone else on the board at a maximum exit velocity for the year of 110.90, more than 3.5 mph lower than the second-lowest mark carried into the evening (again) by Bryce Harper. Rice’s patient approach is also clearly indicated by a 23.51% fast swing rate that is dramatically lower than anyone else on the board tonight. The next-lowest mark in the category is 48.44% held by (you guessed it) Harper, and the other six contestants average a 75.19% rate that peaks with Caminero at 88.23%. While this is not a game environment and Rice will surely be swinging for the fences, throwing a wrench into the gears of a hitter’s approach rarely comes up as a net positive. Rice has a few indicators of concern for his path to success tonight, but he will benefit from the ballpark and would by no means be a surprising winner.

Bryce Harper, LHH – Philadelphia Phillies – +900

The statistical runner-up for the bottom of the board in several of the key categories mentioned for the players featured above will almost surely come into any picks-based format tonight more popular than may be warranted. Bryce Harper is an MLB superstar by any measure, he comes into tonight with 20 home runs on the board after finishing last season with a disappointing 27 and the year before with “only” 30. Harper last hit 35 home runs in 2021, while he still drives the ball effectively and could challenge that total this season, we are somewhat removed from his peak as a power bat. The lefty slugger has slate-low 11.3% barrel and 46.24% hard-hit rates, and sits second-worst by ideal attack angle this season. Harper’s average exit velocity of just 90.09 is, unsurprisingly, the worst on the slate, and his 113.50 mph maximum exceeds only that of Ben Rice. To a less exaggerated degree than Rice, Harper finds his power somewhat more situationally, unloading on the right pitch at the right time, his average bat speed of 74.42 mph lands behind only the Yankees first baseman on this list. Harper is by no means a bad pick tonight, it is entirely within reason to think that his star will shine bright in front of the hometown fans, but when we are examining the factors that truly lead to home runs in game conditions, he comes up lacking by comparison. As a selection at +900 odds for a fair payout, Harper is better for betting than for an equal payout picks/pool format tonight.

Willson Contreras, RHH – Boston Red Sox – +1500

Tonight’s longshot may have been the lowest-profile hitter on the board (begin Bane voice) before he took off the mask (end Bane voice), but his popularity has grown at first base in Boston, after moving to the position in 2024 while with the Cardinals. Contreras hit 15 home runs in 358 opportunities that season and another 20 in 2025, his final year in St. Louis. He has 20 on the board already in his first year in Boston, while slashing a career-high .285/.379/.542 with a .395 wOBA supported entirely by a .390 xwOBA. Contreras has engaged another level of production in his age-34 season, he seems like a mortal lock to exceed his previous career high of 24 home runs, though he has cracked 20+ in a season seven times including this year. Contreras benefits from a strong approach at the plate and has an average bat speed of 76.96 mph for the season, the fifth-highest among eight competitors, but nearly the exact average (76.58) for tonight. At a 46.67% hard-hit rate, Contreras trails only Bryce Harper coming into the Derby, but his 14.2% barrel rate is better than three other entrants (Caminero, Walker, and Harper), and he has a better ideal attack angle rate than another three (Murakami, Caglianone, and Harper). Contreras comes in at far longer odds than any of the other sluggers on tonight’s list for a reason, and hitting right-handed does not provide a benefit in this ballpark, but it is difficult to challenge his ability to put bat-on-ball in game conditions. For an off-the-board option at +1500, Contreras seems to have more appeal in his approach than Bryce Harper, and arguably at least rivals several other choices, but he is not going to benefit from the ballpark and is likely the last man off the board in any draft or auction format.

2026 Home Run Derby Winner Call : Munetaka Murakami — Chicago White Sox

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