The Wednesday afternoon nine-game MLB DFS Main Slate features several interesting spots for power. The darling of the DraftKings slate is also coughing up the biggest number on the power board to a difficult opponent, while many other teams are facing ace-caliber pitching as teams return to the top of their rotations. Today may be a more difficult afternoon on which to find home run upside.

Main Slate Power Index – 4/5/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel

The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting valuable doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column is the average of our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their biggest bats.

The Rangers lead the way in both the full lineup and top-6 home run probabilities in their matchup against the number one pitching prospect in baseball, Grayson Rodriguez. The Orioles rookie is a prized jewel of the farm system and a kid on whose hopes the entire franchise is currently riding. If Rodriguez develops into the ace he looks like, the Orioles’ rebuild is complete and they are contenders, if not there will be heartbreak in Camden Yards. Regardless, today he is just a kid making his Major League debut, and he will be doing so at just a $4,000 price tag on the DraftKings slate, which is going to making absurdly popular in a spot that is flashing with some danger. Rodriguez will be facing a Texas lineup laden with power. The top four hitters in the Texas lineup are all over the “magic number” of 10 in our home run model. With all four of Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Nathaniel Lowe, and Adolis Garcia pulling that much power upside and each coming in at less than $4,000 on FanDuel and less than $5,000 on DraftKings, we have a dynamite contrarian stack that can attack the ownership of a large swath of the public. This is not to say that Rodriguez should be avoided, he should be played aggressively at that DraftKings price, but drawing shares of Texas bats can be profitable in this situation. The rest of the lineup features Josh Jung, who is pulling a respectable 8.96 in the model, as well as Brad Miller, who sits at 7.96. Both players are capable of driving the ball, though Miller is the more experienced and reliable of the pair, he should also be less popular and comes at a lower price later in the batting order. If Ezequiel Duran plays again he is worthy of consideration as well.

The Tampa Bay Rays are in Washington D.C. once again, facing a team that everyone should get very used to seeing targeted all season. The Nationals will have Patrick Corbin on the mound this afternoon, the lefty has been a target in this space for multiple seasons on his own, this seems like a terrific spot for Tampa Bay. Corbin put up just an 18% strikeout rate last season while yielding a 3.79% home run rate on a massive 11% barrel rate and 44.6% hard-hit percentage. The year before he allowed a 9.2% barrel rate and a 40.7% hard-hit percentage with a 4.93% home run rate. Between the amount and the quality of the contact that Corbin yields, the Rays should be in business all afternoon once again. This team is excellent for sequencing and creating runs, and they have plenty of power up and down the projected lineup. Infielder Isaac Paredes is the highest-rated player in the Rays’ projected lineup at 10.86 in our home run model. The young slugger hit 20 home runs in just 381 plate appearances last year but needs to fully develop his contact. Paredes is a strong play in the middle of the lineup, he is surrounded by hitters including Yandy Diaz, who has started this season red hot, Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena, and Harold Ramirez, who is always in play for line drives and scoring against a lefty and could go deep against Corbin. That group up top is missing power hitting Brandon Lowe, who may sit against a southpaw. The lineup includes Jose Siri, who was noted here for power and speed upside and homered yesterday, as well as Manuel Margot, who slashed .274/.325/.375 with four home runs in his 363 plate appearances last season. The top of the lineup is the power core for the Rays in this matchup.