Opening Day features a loaded main slate, starting with a pair of games at 1:05 ET and running through a late game that was moved into the evening due to inclement weather, in San Diego of all places. Today’s Power Index is focused on the now day-long 11-game Main Slates, the three-game Night Slates are not currently included.

Main Slate

With 11 games, several interesting spots for power are available on the Opening Day MLB DFS slate. The obvious frontrunner for multiple home runs is the Atlanta Braves. The team faces lefty Patrick Corbin, who yielded a 3.79% home run rate to opposing hitters in 2022, and an uglier mark of 4.93% the year before. Corbin has only managed an 18.5% strikeout rate over the past two seasons, and he allowed opposing hitters to barrel the ball at an 11% clip with a 44.6% hard-hit rate last season. The featured sluggers in the Braves’ star-studded lineup will likely be popular on the upcoming slate, but the team features talent from top to bottom. MLB DFS gamers should not be shy about reaching down the lineup for hitters. However, a question looms over a seemingly obvious target, Michael Harris II, who mashed 19 home runs in just 441 plate appearances, taking the league by storm as a rookie in 2022. Harris had a 10.1% barrel rate and a 45.1% hard-hit rate in 2022, but the lefty hit just two of his home runs against same-handed pitching while posting a measly .127 ISO in the split but a .257 ISO against righties. Harris has to prove himself against fellow southpaws in his sophomore season, so getting to Corbin early would be a great way to get started. While he may not be a popular, or even a good, person, outfielder Marcell Ozuna seems likely to be hitting in the middle of this lineup at a cheap price on both MLB DFS sites. Ozuna stacks well with his teammates and he has shown demonstrable power throughout his career. Ozuna made 507 plate appearances in 2022, hitting 23 home runs with a .187 ISO and a strong 13.1% barrel rate. Ozuna is a step down from the premium bats atop the lineup, but he is the fourth of four Braves hitters who crack the magic number of 10.0 in the home run model.

The Pittsburgh Pirates seem likely to be a fairly popular source of value, despite a matchup against right-handed strikeout artist Hunter Greene. The 23-year-old hurler posted an excellent 30.9% strikeout rate last season, but like many overpowering aces that came with a home run hiccup. Greene yielded an unsightly 4.52% home run rate to opposing hitters in 2022, while allowing a 9.4% barrel rate and a 20.7-degree average launch angle. Greene also flashed issues with the long ball during a short stint in AAA in 2021, allowing 11 minor league home runs in 65.1 innings, so the challenge is nothing new. If the Pirates surprise and come up unpopular, they could make for an intriguing option, given their low pricing and several intriguing bats. Oneil Cruz is a different piece from site to site, the shortstop is priced at $5,100 on DraftKings but costs just $3,100 on FanDuel, where he will likely be crushingly popular. He has an excellent mark in the home run model and comes into the season talking of historic numbers. In 2022, the then-rookie hit 17 home runs in just 361 plate appearances while mashing pitchers for a 15.5% barrel rate and a 45.6% hard-hit rate. Cruz is primed for a monster season, he should be a part of many Pirates stacks, but he is no secret. Outfielder Bryan Reynolds is in a similar pickle for both price and, presumably, popularity. The Pirates will likely have veteran switch-hitter Carlos Santana in the middle of their lineup, which should encourage MLB DFS gamers to use him at a fair price on both sites. Santana hit 19 home runs in 506 opportunities in 2022 after posting the same total in a whopping 659 plate appearances in 2021. At age 36, Santana is now several years removed from 2019’s 34 home run season, but he is a slugger with two seasons of more than 30 and seven seasons over 20 home runs. Santana had a 9.3% barrel rate and a 44.9% hard-hit rate last year, numbers that almost exactly mirrored his 2019 season. This is not to suggest that Santana will return to a total of more than 30 home runs, but it certainly begs the question of what total he may have reached last year given the 686 opportunities he had in that 2019 season. It also gives us a basis from which to expect a few sneaky long balls from the aging corner infielder, that he managed to limit strikeouts to just 17.4% while walking 14% of the time is simply MLB DFS scoring gravy.

While the San Francisco Giants are showing a respectable number on the Power Index, this is a good case study of what the tool is telling us. While the Power Index can frequently be used to find the best stacks of the day, its true function is to provide a guide rail as to where potential home runs are, informed simply by the average of the full lineup and the top-six hitters in our home run model. This is an imperfect way to find full stacks because, at times, teams can face a pitcher like New York Yankees star, Gerrit Cole, and they are carrying one of the lowest implied team totals on the board on Thursday. The Giants are inexpensive and they are playing in Yankee Stadium, so they could make for an interesting contrarian stack in tournaments, but the most likely scenario is that Cole keeps them well in check. The Yankees’ ace did yield a 4.16% home run rate in 2022 and a 3.31% mark in 2021, contributing to the somewhat elevated individual totals the Giants are displaying. Lefty thumper Joc Pederson is the team’s best bet for a long ball, particularly in this park. The outfielder had a 15.1% barrel rate and an excellent 51.8% hard-hit rate last season, putting Pederson in rarified air when it comes to pure power potential. At just $2,600 he may draw ownership on the FanDuel slate, but he is less likely to be popular against Cole at $4,300 on DraftKings.