The eight-game Monday main slate brings us a Power Index with a broad mid-range for home run upside but only one standout spot, and that comes with some question marks from the top of the board. The Angels are facing Astros’ righty Hunter Brown, who is not known for allowing much power and who is yet to allow a home run this season. Regardless, the star power and big bats on the Angels have them pushing the magic number for power, while several other teams are in more suppressive matchups in this one. None of the spots are truly bad, the bottom 5.25 for Arizona’s top six is a healthy enough number that includes some significant power hitters, so it is important to remember that these are averages of individual opportunity, not do-or-die stack rankings. To illustrate, the Angels lineup that leads the way in truth has only three players above a 10.0 in the model, with three more between eight and nine.
Main Slate Power Index – 5/8/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column is the average of our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their biggest bats.
The Angels are at home to face a rookie hurler tonight, but Hunter Brown is no ordinary rookie, in fact few rookie starters seem to be like rookies these days. Brown arrived fully formed, he has made six starts and thrown 34.2 innings this season and is yet to cough up a home run. He has a sparkling 2.60 ERA with a “good but not as good” 3.80 xFIP hiding under the surface, and he is sporting a 25.7% strikeout rate with an 11.3% swinging-strike rate and a 28.3% CSW%. Brown’s faults have come in allowing too many free passes, his walk rate sits at 10.7% in the small sample, and giving up a bit of premium contact, but it has hardly hurt him to this point. The righty has yielded a 41.9% hard-hit rate with 89.6 mph of average exit velocity in his six starts, but he has kept barrels to just 3.5% and the ever-important launch angle to just 5.7 degrees. While average launch angle is a wonky stat for hitters, lazy “can of corn” flyballs to the outfield can skew hitters’ averages badly, for example, they are more telling for pitchers and their consistency in keeping the ball in the yard. This is a sustained trait for Brown as well, he was always good at limiting home runs in his brief minor league tenure. Of course, the Angels have some extraordinary power on their side, and three of their hitters are over the 10.0 mark in our model. It should be no mystery which three hitters those are at this point in the season, Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Hunter Renfroe have massive power between them, they are at 16.99, 15.02, and 13.54 in our home run model. So far this season, Trout has hit eight home runs and has a .260 ISO, Ohtani has hit seven and has a .217, and Renfroe has eight from a bit later in the lineup, where he has been mashing to the tune of a .254 ISO this season. The trio hits everything hard, they are all between a 48 and 49% hard-hit rate and both Trout and Ohtani barrel the ball with regularity at a 15.6% and 13.2% rate. Renfroe has been slightly below that with a 7.7% but it has not hurt him, he was at 10.9% with a 43.3% hard-hit last year, so he is hitting the ball hard with more consistency despite fewer barrels. Zach Neto lacks for significant power in the leadoff role, he has zero home runs and a .056 ISO in his 82 plate appearances, he is a good hitter in theory but has not found his form yet, Neto is a correlated scoring play at best right now. Anthony Rendon got on the home run train over the weekend! The third baseman now has one for the season and is sporting just a .070 ISO, but he has created runs 26% better than average while slashing .291/.418/.360 with a 40.3% hard-hit rate and a 10.9% strikeout rate. Rendon is not nearly done at the plate, if the power decides to stick around this is another dangerous upside bat for MLB DFS, he is already a good correlated scoring play. Rendon hits between Trout-Ohtani and Renfroe in the cleanup role most days and he is still cheap at $4,100/$3,000. Taylor Ward has four home runs in 151 plate appearances but has been below average for run creation and has just a .116 ISO this year, taking away two of his primary attributes from last season’s breakout. Ward’s barrel rate has slipped from 12.1% to 6.9% but he is at 8.83 in our home run model today, joining Brandon Drury who is at 8.89 in the seventh spot in the projected lineup as an interesting option for a home run late in the batting order. Matt Thaiss has a 5.29, he has one home run in 46 plate appearances at the bottom of the lineup but has been productive for runs since filling in for injured Logan O’Hoppe. Luis Rengifo has sneaky power late in the lineup, he is a better option than Gio Urshela at the pate. Rengifo has two home runs and a .089 ISO so far this year, but he hit 17 homers with a .166 last season. This is a very interesting matchup, Brown has been very good on the mound but the Angels lineup is loaded with premium bats and is difficult to navigate, they may not be the top overall stack when it comes to run total and sequencing tonight, but they could be a good source of low-owned one-offs with upside for big individual MLB DFS scores.
The nightcap in San Francisco is another strong-looking spot to find a home run or two. The Nationals will have righty Jake Irvin on the mound for his second start ever. Irvin is not a premium rookie, he is ranked in the teens organizationally and has only average-looking stuff. Irvin’s first start was a 4.1-inning affair against the Cubs, he allowed just one earned run on two hits and did not yield a home run, but he struck out only three and walked four. The Giants, meanwhile, are a team with stout power bats from top to bottom, that will play platoon games against the young starter. San Francisco’s projected lineup opens with underrated LaMonte Wade Jr. who has six home runs while slashing .258/.436/.517 with a .258 ISO and creating runs 65% better than average in his 119 plate appearances. Wade slots in for just $3,200 at first base or in the outfield on DraftKings, he is a $3,000 first baseman on FanDuel and is carrying an 8.64 in our home run model. Thairo Estrada checks in with six home runs of his own this season, he hit 14 in 541 plate appearances during his breakout 2022 campaign, so this represents a pace uptick early in the season. Estrada has just a seven percent barrel rate and a 33% hard-hit however, so he is capitalizing on the few premium batted-ball events he has had. The infielder has been excellent across the board however, even if he does not hit one over the wall he has major value with a .346/.399/.543 triple-slash and a 160 WRC+. Estrada’s price is creeping up on DraftKings, where he is a $5,300 option at second base or shortstop, he is a $3,400 option at the same positions on the blue site. Estrada has an 8.36 in our home run model tonight, while slugger JD Davis slots into the third spot in the lineup with a similarly high power projection. Davis has seven home runs so far this season, posting a .235 ISO while creating runs 38% better than average. He has a 10.3% barrel rate and a 52.9% hard-hit percentage, both things he has always done very well. As we said at the season’s outset, all this hitter ever needed was a chance, he has the contact profile of a premium power hitter and he is finally able to deliver regularly. Davis costs just $3,700/$3,000 at third base. Joc Pederson is a left-handed masher who typically tattoos terrible righties, he has a team-leading 11.94 in the home run model tonight, though he has hit only three in his 83 plate appearances after missing time early this season. Pederson’s 15.4% barrel rate is in line with expectations however, the contact is there so the power will come, it is a simple enough equation. Pederson has a good chance for MLB DFS points output tonight for just $4,000/$3,000 in the outfield, joining teammate Mitch Haniger, who has a matching .194 ISO and two home runs in his 39 opportunities this year. Haniger’s main problem is always staying healthy, when he is on the field he is essentially a star. In his last full season, 2021, Haniger hit 39 home runs with a .232 ISO and a 120 WRC+ over 691 plate appearances, he has big-time power and is carrying a 10.63 in our home run model. Another good left-handed power hitter lurks late in the lineup wearing the skin and uniform of Michael Conforto. So far the outfielder has four home runs with a 10% barrel rate and 50% hard-hit, as well as a strong 13.2% walk rate, but he has struggled across the board with everything else after missing all of last season. Conforto is slashing just .175/.298/.309 with a .134 ISO and he is flailing somewhat with a 32.5% strikeout rate. The outfielder is cheap and he is still in possession of upside at the plate, he costs $3,400/$2,800 and is a good way to keep price and popularity down in Giants stacks. Joey Bart is slashing .280/.346/.360 in 55 plate appearances but he has shown no power this season. The backstop managed 11 home runs with a .149 ISO in 291 plate appearances last year, so he is not bereft of power at $2,400/$2,300. Bart is a better play where catchers are required. Brett Wisely lands in the eighth spot in the projected lineup, he has one home run in 36 plate appearances and is not thought of as much of a power bat in the long term, he is a mix-and-match piece at most. Lefty Cal Stevenson lands in the last spot in the lineup, he made 71 plate appearances and hit no home runs with a 47 WRC+ last year and has done nothing of note in 10 opportunities this year, but neither sample is remotely fair. The 26-year-old’s career high for home runs in the minors is nine in 365 plate appearances while in Tampa Bay’s system at AA in 2021. The focus is on spots 1-7 in the Giants lineup if it is confirmed in this form.
