The Sunday main slate includes eight games with an all-over-the-place board that includes several lousy left-handed pitchers that can be targeted for home run hitting upside at the plate. There are several spots flashing for significant power upside in today’s home run model and several of the teams involved are decent stacking options, so we do not have an all-or-nothing proposition as we saw with the Rockies and their letdown yesterday. Outside of the Nationals, the teams at the top of the board today all run deep with a variety of mix-and-match options that are capable from up and down the lineup. With one true ace and a ton of power on the table, this seems like a slate that will be won by some big bats, potentially once again including those in the Athletics vs Royals game that is carrying a far higher run total in Vegas than the other contests at 10.5.
Main Slate Power Index – 5/6/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column is the average of our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their biggest bats.
The Brewers and Giants switch places in our esteem this evening, with Milwaukee bats dipping significantly against Alex Cobb and the Giants climbing to the very top of the Power Index with their opportunity against righty Colin Rea. The pitcher has made four starts and is holding a 4.48 xFIP with a 4.79 ERA and a 22% strikeout rate with a 9.8% mark for walks to this point. Rea has not been good at preventing runs and he has issued too many free passes early, but the biggest issue is the level of premium contact that the non-prospect righty allows. Rea has given up a 47.3% hard-hit rate and a 9.1% barrel rate with 91.6 mph of average exit velocity leading to a 4.88% home run rate in the small sample. The 32-year-old Rea was a target for bats on arrival, he has pitched on multiple continents the last few seasons and is simply holding a place in the rotation until someone better is able to return or arrive. Even in an otherwise good outing against the Angels in his last start, Rea allowed two home runs in his five innings, though he did strike out nine in that game, one start after a pair of outings that saw him strike out two then one. He has allowed at least one home run in three of four starts this season, the righty is a target for hard-hitting Giants bats today. The projected batting order opens with LaMonte Wade Jr. who has quietly been mashing to start the season. Wade has six home runs and a .288 ISO with a 172 WRC+ in his 110 plate appearances and he has been finding excellent contact at the plate. Wade has a 15.0% barrel rate with a 43.3% hard-hit for the season, well up from the 9.5% and 33.7% he posted last year, which is driving the power for a player who still costs merely $3,100/$3,000 tonight and adds outfield eligibility to his first base positioning on DraftKings. Wade is a strong left-handed power bat to open the contest and he can be played from other positions in the lineup as well. Thairo Estrada costs $5,100/$3,400 as the most expensive player on the team on both sites and the only Giants player above $4,000 on the DraftKings slate, making the top power spot on the board an extreme value play for MLB DFS as well. Estrada has four home runs this year and he adds nine stolen bases to his MLB DFS point-creation tally. The infielder is eligible at second base and shortstop on both sites, he is slashing .339/.395/.500 with a .161ISO and has created runs 48% better than average in his 129 plate appearances, building on his breakout season from last year. Estrada is a very good correlated scoring option with mid-range individual upside as a positional one-off. JD Davis is projected to hit third in the lineup today, the slugger hit another home run last night and now has seven on the season with a .280/.352/.527 triple slash and a .247 ISO while creating runs 39% better than average on the back of a 10.8% barrel rate and 53.8% hard-hit, Davis has the profile of a significant power hitter and now has a full-time job but he still costs just $3,600/$3,100, he is too cheap on both sites. Joc Pederson is a major left-handed power bat who is something of a platoon specialist. Pederson is projected in the cleanup role tonight and is carrying a team-leading 15.25 in the home run model. The outfielder cost just $4,000/$3,100, he has three home runs and a .222 ISO in his 74 plate appearances this year, and he hit 23 in 433 with a .247 ISO last year, Pederson is a strong home run play on this slate. Mitch Haniger is another power-packed right-handed hitter who had 39 home runs in his last fully healthy season in 2021, he has a pair of them with a .250 ISO in 31 plate appearances since rejoining the lineup after yet another injury. If Haniger is in the Giants’ lineup he can be in yours. Michael Conforto is slashing just .187/.308/.330 with a .143 ISO but he does have four home runs this season after missing all of 2022. Conforto hit 14 home runs in a downswing in 479 plate appearances in 2021 that also saw his triple-slash dip to .232/.344/.384 with a .153 ISO, but he hit 27, 28, and 33 home runs the three seasons prior to the pandemic with more robust triple-slash numbers, don’t bet against the 30-year-old figuring this out at the dish. Blake Sabol has a 13.5% barrel rate and a 45.9% hard-hit rate in his 73 plate appearances, hitting five sneaky home runs with a .235 ISO as a very cheap catcher play who also has outfield eligibility on both sites. Brett Wisely has yet to hit a home run or do much at all in his 29 opportunities, he is slashing .074/.107/.074 with a .000 ISO and has created runs 148% worse than average with a -52 WRC+ in the unfairly tiny sample. Cal Stevenson has made just seven plate appearances this year, he did not hit for any power in 71 opportunities last year. This lineup will almost certainly come out different, the Giants love to mix things up, check the Overview column as lock approaches for any notes.
The Royals will be facing lefty Ken Waldichuk and the team is carrying the slate’s highest implied run total at 5.97 in a game carrying a 10.5 total, a full run higher than the next two highest games and two runs above every other contest on the slate. This looks like another night of fireworks between lousy baseball teams. The Royals side continues to be the preferred option, despite the Athletics’ outburst last night they are much more lacking for true Major League talent, yes including Brent Rooker, who is not “for real” at age 28 and will almost certainly crash and burn like a great many hitters who have had a hot month in MLB history. Rooker’s glaring hole is a 36% whiff rate on every pitch thrown to him, the book is going to catch up on a hitter who would have been here before now if he was anything close to this level of talent in reality. The rest of the Athletics’ lineup is way worse. On the Royals side, however, we have a true star power hitter and a number of very capable young bats at various stages of development and performance. The best attribute the Royals have going for them is the matchup against struggling Waldichuk. The southpaw was excellent for strikeouts in the minors last year, ascending through the Yankees’ farm system despite control and command issues on the back of 30% and higher strikeout rates at each stop, then he went to Oakland in the Frankie Montas trade that has not worked out for either side. Waldichuk made seven starts in the Show late in 2022, allowing a 3.42% home run rate on 37.4% hard hits and a massive 12.1% barrel rate while pitching to a 4.26 xFIP under his 4.93 ERA and a 22.6% strikeout rate, all were fine for a rookie in a cup of coffee, but the lefty has been in a major downswing so far in 2023. Waldichuk has made six starts and thrown 31 innings, he has a 17.4% strikeout rate, a 7.7% swinging-strike rate, and a 21.7% CSW%. When he has thrown strikes he has made major mistakes that have led to home runs, he has a 6.94% home run rate and a 7.26 ERA with a 5.48 xFIP so far this season. Shockingly, the contact profile allowed has actually been fairly strong, Waldichuk has given up just an 87.3 mph average exit velocity on 33.7% hard hits and a 7.7% barrel rate, it’s simply that the pitches he leaves hanging tend to travel great distances in the other direction in short amounts of time. Waldichuk had two starts that were clean for home runs in his six outings, they came after giving up three home runs to the Angels in his first start and four to the Rays in his second. He threw 6.1 innings against the Orioles, allowing three runs on five hits while striking out four and walking three, then was actually effective in a five-inning start against the Cubs, striking out five and walking three but shutting the hard-hitting team out with five hits scattered. Then he gave up two more home runs to the Angels in a two-strikeout 5.1-inning clunker that was followed by a home run to the lowly Reds in a seven-strikeout performance over 5.2. If the pitcher can find his strikeout form and continue avoiding premium contact he could turn into something in the long term, for now, this is someone who can still be targeted with bats, particularly in such an offense-forward environment tonight. Bobby Witt Jr. sat out last night but should return tonight, he has not been good to start the year with just a 91 WRC+ but he does have five home runs and eight stolen bases with an 8.58 in our home run model. Edward Olivares checks in with a 6.42 and two home runs on the board in his 102 plate appearances. The cheap outfielder has a .170 ISO and a 105 WRC+ and he has put bat-on-ball fairly well to start the season with a 10.5% barrel rate and 40.8% hard-hit percentage. Vinnie Pasquantino has six home runs in the heart of the lineup, so does Sal Perez, they are a strong lefty-righty duo who have been the team’s two best power bats at a .240 and .214 ISO in their small samples this season. The pair of power hitters cost just $3,600/$3.300 and $4,200/$3,400, Perez is a very interesting catcher play on DraftKings tonight but he may end up very popular in this spot. MJ Melendez and Matt Duffy slot into the next two spots. Melendez has an outstanding 15.5% barrel rate with a 57.7% hard-hit percentage for the season but has managed just three home runs and a .164 ISO in an important reminder that premium contact is not the only ingredient. Melendez has a 7.84 in our home run model and he is an interesting option with catcher and outfield eligibility on both sites. He is also one of five players in the projected lineup with multi-position eligibility on at least one site, making the Royals a cheap, potentially powerful, and highly flexible lineup for stacking purposes. Of course, many of the names in the bottom of the lineup are not great, Duffy included. Over 51 plate appearances this year he has one home run and is slashing .348/.392/.478 with a .130 ISO while creating runs 40% better than average, but he was 22% below average with a .250/.308/.311 and a .061 ISO last year in 247 opportunities. Duffy was somewhat better in 2021, over 322 tries he slashed .287/.357/.381 with five home runs and eight stolen bases while creating runs two percent better than average, the right-handed hitter is not awful but he is not our favorite click in this lineup. All things considered, we would rather have Nick Pratto again in this spot, the former first-round pick went deep last night after being mentioned in this space several times this week. Pratto seems less likely to play in a same-handed matchup. Hunter Dozier, Maikel Garcia, and Nate Eaton round out the projected lineup with a 5.06, 2.43, and 3.21 in our home run model, the Royals’ quality is primarily from 1-6.
