An early-starting 1:05 ET afternoon main slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel features nine games with an excellent blend of major power opportunities and good pitchers in good matchups. The early start has us in quick summary mode, but the slate includes a Coors Field game that is leading the way for power as well as strong opportunities for the Mariners, Cubs, Cardinals, and several of the mid-range teams, including the Rays against Vince Velasquez.
Main Slate Power Index – 5/4/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column is the average of our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their biggest bats.
The Brewers lead the slate in their final game at Coors Field for the week, with Connor Seabold on the mound for the hometown Rockies. The righty has thrown 13.2 innings out of the bullpen and is filling in for now with injuries in the rotation. Seabold had a 20% strikeout rate at maximum effort out of the pen so far this year, in five starts and 18.1 innings last year he had a 19.4% strikeout rate and a 5.51 xFIP while allowing a 5.10% home run rate on a 10.3% barrel rate. He is a major target for bats in this one. Rowdy Tellez should be no surprise as our team and slate leader in the home run model, the projected cleanup hitter has a 19.23 today, nearly doubling the magic number for power. Tellez has eight home runs this season and looks like a good bet for another. Christian Yelich leads off and has three home runs in his pocket this year but just a .118 ISO, his 12.55 in the home run model is encouraging today. Jesse Winker and Willy Adames are strong power bats, but only Adames has been going right at any point in 2023, he has five home runs with a .176 ISO and a 99 WRC+, slipping below par over the last two weeks. Winker has no home runs in his 68 plate appearances and has just a .053 ISO after being a major letdown for most of last season. The lefty-righty duo has a 12.81 and 15.52 in the home run model ahead of Tellez. William Contreras is a hard-hitting catcher who is pulling in a 13.20 in the model, he has one home run so far this year but has been the Brewers’ most reliable bat overall. Brian Anderson has five home runs with a 14.3% barrel rate, he is another quality option for power today, though he slips below the 10-mark with a 9.54 in our home run model. Anderson is inexpensive at $4,100 with third base and outfield eligibility on DraftKings, he is a more expensive proposition at $3,600 on FanDuel. Brice Turang has just a 5.42 in the home run model, he is not much of a power hitter so far but he has put two over the wall in 86 plate appearances. Tyrone Taylor hits the ball hard and could go under the radar for MLB DFS gamers, he has an 11.48 in the home run model and he hit 17 long balls in 405 plate appearances last year. Joey Weimer has two home runs in 99 plate appearances with a .135 ISO and a 7.5% barrel rate, but he is pulling in a respectable 9.03 in the home run model out of the ninth spot in the projected lineup.
The Cubs were featured in this space yesterday and the team looks like a strong bet for power once again, with Patrick Corbin getting the start for Washington. Corbin has allowed a 44% hard-hit rate and a 4.11% home run rate on 90.3 mph of average exit velocity so far this year, nearly identical to his struggles with power last year. The lefty has a 4.62 xFIP and just a 14.4% strikeout rate in 31.1 innings over six starts. Seiya Suzuki leads the Cubs with an 11.33 in the home run model, followed by Patrick Wisdom at 11.00. The pair of sluggers are separated in the lineup, Suzuki hits cleanup with Wisdom hitting seventh or eighth typically. Wisdom is chasing the league lead with 11 home runs on the board so far this year and he has a massive .386 ISO in 114 plate appearances. Suzuki has one home runs in 78 opportunities after missing time and hit 14 in 446 tries last year. Nico Hoerner is a good speed and correlated scoring play. Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ have been featured in this space several times recently, the underrated duo land at 9.68 and 9.37 in our home run model, they have five combined home runs and have been over .400 at getting on-base early in the season, driving run creation. Trey Mancini and Cody Bellinger are slated to hit fifth and sixth, adding power upside to the heart of the order. Mancini is up to .268/.314/.381 with three home runs but a .113 ISO and 90 WRC+, Bellinger has seven home runs and a .282 ISO. Nelson Velazquez and Miguel Amaya round out the projected lineup.
