The six-game Memorial Day Main Slates get rolling at 1:05 ET this afternoon with interestingly shaped contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The slate lacks arms, with only a few trustworthy starters going and a few spots showing a significant amount of MLB DFS upside for power and run creation. The top of today’s home run board comes from Minnesota’s matchup with JP France, who has yielded a significant amount of power to this point in the season, while several of the other top options are also facing either young or low-end pitchers. As one would expect, the matchup against Nathan Eovaldi, who has been dealing all season, has the Tigers ranked dead last on the power board.
Main Slate Power Index – 5/29/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column averages our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their most significant bats.
Astros starter JP France has a good-looking 3.43 ERA on the surface with a bit more telling mark of 4.33 in his xFIP. The righty has made four starts and thrown 21 innings, while he has been OK for runs, his 20.2% strikeout rate is unimpressive despite his 30.5% CSW%, and he has allowed a lot of home run power in the small sample. France has given up a 10.8% barrel rate and 89.9 mph of average exit velocity with a 5.62% home run rate. France’s numbers are worth watching, his numbers may be somewhat skewed by one bad outing in which he allowed three home runs, but he gave up on in each of two other starts as well, so overall there should be plenty of opportunity for Twins home run hitters to connect today. Minnesota’s projected lineup opens with Joey Gallo who has a 16.82 in our home run model to lead the team. Gallo mashes when he makes contact, he has a 20% barrel rate and 60% hard-hit rate with 11 home runs and a .331 ISO in his 145 plate appearances this year but costs just $4,200/$3,000 with eligibility in the outfield and at first base. Edouard Julien has four home runs on the season in just 58 plate appearances. The top prospect for the Twins has a .286 ISO and a 16.1% barrel rate in the small sample with a 9.19 in our home run model. Carlos Correa has six home runs but is slashing .216/.308/.392 in an extended slump, Byron Buxton has 10 home runs and a .230 ISO while creating runs 16% better than average but his .225/.325/.455 could be better. The power-hitting duo land at 11.17 and 14.85 in the model. Alex Kirilloff hits from the left side with eligibility at first base and in the outfield on DraftKings for $3,600 and at just first base on FanDuel for $2,900. Kirilloff has three homers with a .194 ISO in his 73 plate appearances this season. Max Kepler is projected to return to the lineup, the lefty had been off to a good start with six home runs in his 114 plate appearances, he has a 10.90 in the home run model this afternoon. Kyle Farmer, Willi Castro, and Christian Vazquez are lower-ranked options, Farmer lands at 7.12 for home run upside, he has three in 105 plate appearances, Castro has four in 107 opportunities, adding eight steals, while Vazquez has done very little at the plate this year.
