The Thursday evening main slates are slightly different from site to site, with six games opening at 6:40 ET on FanDuel and a five-game contest commencing at 7:05 on DraftKings. The slate has one glaringly obvious opportunity at the top of the board, with the Giants showing an absolute ton of power against the surprising name on the mound for Milwaukee. The slate has only a few viable pitching options, this looks like one that will be won at the plate, so spreading out to cover a broad spectrum of options is the recommended approach in a full portfolio of lineups.
Main Slate Power Index – 5/25/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column averages our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their most significant bats.
The Giants will be facing right-handed starter Julio Teheran who has not thrown a meaningful Major League inning in some time. Teheran made one start and pitched five innings with Detroit in 2021, he made nine starts for the Angels in the weird 2020 season, throwing 31.1 innings, and he was last relevant when still with Atlanta in 2019. That season, Teheran made 33 starts and pitched to a 5.26 xFIP with a 21.5% strikeout rate and an 11% walk rate. It seems unlikely that he has gotten better. The Giants lineup is primed for power in our model tonight, the team is at or above the magic number for home run upside from top to bottom in this matchup. Leadoff hitter LaMonte Wade Jr. has hit seven home runs and has a .199 ISO with a 152 WRC+ on a 10.3% barrel rate and 41.1% hard-hit percentage for the year. Wade is very good at limiting strikeouts and drawing walks, his walk rate is currently 19.3% for the season, and he could give Teheran fits to start the game. Thairo Estrada has six home runs and a .170 ISO, he is pulling in a 15.90 in our home run model. JD Davis has hit eight home runs with a .204 ISO and a 51.4% hard-hit rate this season in a nice early breakout. With a 16.94 in our home run model, Davis is one of the top options in the Giants lineup, he costs just $3,700/$2,900 tonight after cooling a bit in recent weeks. Michael Conforto mashes from the left side of the plate, he has an 11.5% barrel rate and 47.1% hard-hit rate this season, and he has 10 home runs in 175 plate appearances with a .219 ISO to this point in his return to action. Mitch Haniger has not done much in 89 opportunities since coming back to the lineup, he has two home runs and a 42 WRC+ but his 48.3% hard-hit rate in the tiny sample is typical for the outfielder and is a sign of power to come. Mike Yastrzemski is another lefty power bat to throw at Teheran in this spot, he has five home runs in 129 plate appearances this year and he hit 17 in 558 tries last year and 25 in 532 the season before. Casey Schmitt is cheap at $3,200/$3,100 with third base and shortstop eligibility on DraftKings but only at the hot corner on FanDuel. Schmitt has two home runs and is slashing .328/.328/.500 since his call-up, he has a 10.95 in our home run model and could be a cheap upside play against this pitcher. Patrick Bailey and Brandon Crawford round out the projected lineup. Bailey is a backup catcher with one home run in 15 plate appearances this season, Crawford is a veteran shortstop who hits from the left side and has mashed four home runs in just 103 plate appearances. Crawford has a 10.71 in our home run model, he is another potentially low-owned source of power at the end of this batting order.
