Ten-game Tuesday is showing a tremendous amount of power atop the board with several of the league’s hardest-hitting teams facing either young or flawed starters, or in some cases both. The Astros and Braves are crashing through the ceiling of the home run model, with several players on both teams landing above the magic number for power in their respective matchups, though we have a bit more respect for the potential talents of Dodgers’ rookie Bobby Miller than we do for Colin Rea who is starting for the Brewers. Milwaukee’s lineup is showing some potential pop of their own against the Astros starter in what could become something of a shootout, and all of the Mariners, Red Sox, Cubs, Yankees, and Mets have at least a fair amount of power lurking.
Main Slate Power Index – 5/23/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column averages our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their most significant bats.
32-year-old righty Colin Rea has not been good over six starts and 31 innings this season. The multi-continent journeyman of pro baseball is not a Major League caliber pitcher, he has a 5.52 ERA and 4.73 xFIP in the short sample and has walked 10% while striking out 19.2% and allowing a significant 4.62% home run rate with 90.5 mph of average exit velocity and 41.8% hard hits. Rea has given up at least one home run in four of his six starts. The Astros should have Jose Altuve back at the top of tonight’s lineup after the star second baseman got a night off on Monday. Altuve hit 28 home runs last season and 31 the year before, he has a 15.35 in our home run model tonight. Alex Bregman is slashing just .222/.329/.361 with six home runs and a .139 ISO on just a 4.3% barrel rate and 34.8% hard hits, those are not the numbers we have come to expect from the excellent veteran third baseman, but he can still take a pitcher like Rea deep at any time. Bregman is inexpensive at $4,900/$3,100 and he has a 13.34 in our home run model. Yordan Alvarez is more than doubling up the magic number tonight, he sits at 21.77 in the home run model and might hit one on his way to the ballpark it seems so likely. Alvarez is slashing .305/.399/.616 with 12 home runs in the books and a massive .311 ISO on a 19.5% barrel rate and 54% hard-hit rate. Kyle Tucker has seven home runs and seven steals, his .181 ISO and home run total are somewhat off the pace we expect from the star outfielder, but he should be fine over time and he has been far from bad despite the underperformance. Tucker costs $5,500/$3,300 and has a 15.75 in our home run model. Jose Abreu dips to 7.39 in the home run model, which is still probably good for someone who is coming up on a year since he last hit one. Abreu’s last home run came early last August, but he covered the blackout with a nice season at the plate in general, this season he has completely evaporated. Abreu is slashing .220/.281/.260 with a .040 ISO and 52 WRC+ in 192 plate appearances. Jeremy Pena is an affordable shortstop with premium talent at the plate but he has not done much over the past few weeks in terms of counting stats. Pena is sitting at 90 WRC+ with the same six home runs and steals we keep mentioning. Chas McCormick has a pair of home runs in 75 plate appearances and hit 14 in 407 tries last year, he lands at an 8.79 in our home run model and looks like a good late lineup option at cheap pricing and low ownership. Corey Julks and Martin Maldonado round out the lineup at 6.57 and 6.68 in the model. Both players have three home runs this season, Julks has a .126 ISO and 85 WRC+, and Maldonado has a .120 ISO and 81 WRC+. The Astros are probably going to be popular tonight, but less so than the game at Coors Field, they are a dynamite option on both MLB DFS sites in this matchup.
