The main slate commences at 4:05 this afternoon with nine games on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The slate includes several premium-looking spots for power with a few low-end pitchers taking the mound for their respective teams and the Power Index is in a New York state of mind atop the board. The rating for the Mets is being pushed significantly by a massive 17.88 in the home run model for Pete Alonso, the matchup against premium rookie Tanner Bibee is not a cakewalk, the righty has been good in his four starts and has been excellent at limiting power to this point. The Yankees number is very real in the Cincinnati bandbox, as is the mark the Reds are pulling down in the same contest. The spread of quality options at the plate with only a few premium pitching options demands a broad spread of hitters while the pitching slate can be somewhat more condensed while consideration should be paid to discounted pitching options that unlock unique combinations of hitters as well.
Main Slate Power Index – 5/20/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column averages our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their most significant bats.
The Yankees are in a great hitting environment in Cincinnati tonight with a matchup against righty Luke Weaver, who has yielded a massive 6.67% home run rate in five starts and 27.1 innings this year. Weaver has allowed a 47.6% hard-hit rate with a 13.1% barrel rate and 91.4 mph of average exit velocity while pitching to a 6.26 ERA and a 4.53 xFIP. Weaver has struck out 22.5% of opposing hitters this year, matching the rate he posted in 13 starts and 65.2 innings in 2021 while also giving up too much power. Weaver has been a targetable pitcher for several seasons, the Yankees are a prime option for stacking and individual power upside tonight. The projected lineup opens with Gleyber Torres who has an 8.37 in our home run model, he has six in the books from early in the season but has been more of a correlated scoring piece in recent weeks. Torres is sitting at .248/.339/.418 with a .170 ISO and 111 WRC+ for $4,700/$3,200. Aaron Judge should not need to be sold when it comes to power upside. The Yankees superstar has 13 home runs in 160 plate appearances this season with a massive .346 ISO on a 27.9% barrel rate and 61.6% hard-hit rate, he carries a team-leading 15.83 in our home run model and looks like a terrific play for another long ball tonight. Anthony Rizzo has 10 home runs and a .218 ISO as the second-best power hitter in this lineup, Rizzo slots in with a 10.66 in the home run model and is the only other player over the magic number in the highly-rated lineup. DJ LeMahieu has just a 5.58 in the home run model, but he has been driving the ball and creating runs regularly this year and is a key component in stacks who happens to play multiple positions at a cheap price. LeMahieu is slashing .260/.335/.432 with five home runs and a 114 WRC+ and costs just $3,600/$3,000 with eligibility at first and third base on DraftKings and adding second base on FanDuel. Lefty Jake Bauers lands in the fifth spot in the projected lineup, he has a pair of home runs and a .167 ISO in 43 plate appearances. Harrison Bader has made 59 plate appearances with three home runs and two stolen bases on the board. Bader has a .232 ISO and 130 WRC+ in the small sample and he has been putting the ball in play regularly with just a 10.2% strikeout rate. Anthony Volpe has seven home runs and 13 stolen bases in what is starting to look like a productive rookie campaign. The shortstop is still slashing just .216/.306/.395 with a .179 ISO and 96 WRC+ but the counting stats are solid and there is more productivity to come. Oswaldo Cabrera has not been productive at the plate this year, he has created runs 42% worse than average over 149 plate appearances in a utility role, he has three home runs and five stolen bases and comes cheap at the end of a lineup that is in an excellent spot, but he may also lose this job before game time. Cabrera is in danger of getting sent down to make room for newly reacquired outfielder Greg Allen, who was traded from the Red Sox and is expected to join the team tonight. If Allen slots into this spot he is an interesting option who can hit for low-end power and has significant speed, he would be a better player than Cabrera for MLB DFS purposes in general. Ben Rortvedt is slotted into the ninth spot to do the catching with Jose Trevino injured, but Kyle Higashioka is the better bat at the position.
The Phillies are in an interesting position in the middle of the board, with their top-6 looking like a more competitive option overall. The team has major power upside in several spots, though a number of their hitters have been underperforming or absent. They will be at home to face righty Jameson Taillon who has not been very good over 24.1 innings and six starts. Taillon is a capable veteran pitcher who has been good over time, including in his return from a second Tommy John Surgery two years ago. Since then, Taillon has been roughly around league-average, he had a 4.30 ERA and 4.69 xFIP with a 23.2% strikeout rate in 144.1 innings and 29 starts in 2021 and followed that up with a 3.91 ERA and 3.79 xFIP with a 20.7% strikeout rate in 177.1 innings and 32 starts. Over six outings this year, the righty has an ugly 6.66 ERA with a better 4.32 xFIP and 23.6% strikeout rate and he has allowed a fair amount of premium contact. Opposing hitters have managed an 11.8% barrel rate and 39.5% hard hits but just a 2.73% home run rate and 87.5 mph of average exit velocity against the flyball pitcher. The Phillies lineup can exploit premium contact with the best of them, both of the team’s big lefties are above the magic number in our home run model, Bryce Harper has an 11.01 in our home run model and Kyle Schwarber is at 12.53. Harper has hit two home runs and is slashing .309/.377/.491 with a 137 WRC+ in his 61 plate appearances. Schwarber has hit 10 home runs with a .217 ISO in 187 plate appearances this year but is slashing .172/.305/.389 with a 90 WRC+. The two power hitters drive the Phillies offense, they hit behind Bryson Stott who has three home runs and five stolen bases in 190 plate appearances. The infielder is cheap at $4,400/$2,800 but has just an 88 WRC+ for the year while slashing .279/.316/.374. Star shortstop Trea Turner has been in a season-long slump, over his first 199 plate appearances he is slashing just .257/.302/.390 with a .134 ISO and 84 WRC+ this year, he hit 21 home runs with 27 stolen bases and a 128 WRC+ last season, there is significant room for a turnaround over his next 500 plate appearances this year. Harper is projected to hit third ahead of righty Nick Castellanos who has a 7.36 in our home run model. The outfielder costs just $4,700/$3,500 and has five home runs on the board already this year while slashing .300/.348/.471. Scharber hits between Castellanos and JT Realmuto who is a top catcher on most slates. Realmuto has hit three home runs and has a .199 ISO over 152 plate appearances this year, the backstop has a 6.19 in our home run model this afternoon. Alec Bohm has a 5.16, he has hit five home runs this year and has a sturdy 46.7% hard-hit rate for the year while adding a pair of stolen bases and creating runs exactly at league average. Brandon Marsh has four home runs and a .226 ISO with a 140 WRC+ in 149 opportunities this year, he was tearing the cover off the ball early in the season and he has a 48.2% hard-hit rate this year but costs just $3,900/$2,900. Edmundo Sosa has three home runs but has been 15% below average in creating runs over his 106 plate appearances.
