A loaded 12-game MLB DFS main slate gets rolling at 7:05 ET with a ridiculous number of hyper-interesting matchups. The board is loaded with talent on the mound, from established aces to young up-and-comers to premium prospects making their MLB debuts, we have a Coors Field game in hand as well as a handful of opportunities for teams to get going against the few lower-end pitching options. The top-ranked teams in the Power Index are showing similar grades through the full lineup, with the top-four teams pulling away somewhat in the averages for the first two-thirds of their lineups. The board is quite interesting as several premium young arms are appearing as targets for power. This includes Mason Miller, who has had ups and downs since his call-up and is facing the powerful Mariners, as well as Tanner Bibee, who will be facing the diminished Yankees in a great spot but one that leads to power mistakes in Yankee Stadium, and Hunter Brown, who is the most proven of the young arms to this point. The solid mid-range numbers that continue down the board until around the Baltimore vs Yarbrough line are all interesting as potentially lower-owned stacking spots as well, though ducking aces like Gerrit Cole in that mix is still a good idea. And, of course, there is Coors Field.
Main Slate Power Index – 5/2/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column is the average of our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their biggest bats.
A pitching duel that we may see again and again for years to come takes shape for the first time in the Majors in Oakland tonight, with stud starting pitching prospects Bryce Miller and Mason Miller, no relation, taking the mound for their respective clubs. For the full breakdown of Bryce Miller’s debut for the Mariners check out our daily Game by Game Overview, for power purposes, we are taking a hard look at Mason Miller from Oakland in this space. The Mariners are the top-ranked team for individual home run upside today leading both the full lineup and top-6 ratings. Oakland’s Miller has made two starts and thrown 8.1 innings so far in his MLB career. Miller has a ridiculous fastball that sits at 99 and tops out around 105 mph and a devastating slider that has generated a 33% whiff rate in the small sample. Miller has three pitches that have graded out as among the best in baseball by Stuff+ already, he has a well-above-average arsenal but that is only one piece of the pitching puzzle. Miller has succeeded in striking out hitters at this level so far, he has a 30.6% strikeout rate over the microscopic sample, pitching to a 6.48 ERA but a 3.55 xFIP with an 11.4% swinging-strike rate. He has just a 25.7% CSW% which is quite low with a swing-and-miss number that high, and he has allowed a significant amount of premium contact when hitters do connect. Miller’s hard-hit rate allowed is sitting at 63.6% with 93.7 mph of average exit velocity on a 22-degree average launch angle. Somehow, that has not yielded a home run, which seems like a simple matter of time. While this is not a great park for home run hitting, the Mariners have a lineup filled with capable bats from top to bottom, Miller may well rack up strikeouts and post a slate-bending score in this outing, he costs just $5,700/$7,500 but it is easy to envision him allowing a home run or two along the way. Julio Rodriguez is slotted into the top spot in the projected Mariners lineup. The star did not have as robust an April as everyone may have been expecting, but he was still productive at .239/.301/.442 with a .204 ISO and a 110 WRC+. Rodriguez has five home runs and six stolen bases on the season with a 10.1% barrel rate and a 45.6% hard-hit. The contact numbers are both down a tick from last year, which has been a bit of Rodriguez’s problem so far this season, but it seems very likely that the stud outfielder will round into form sooner than later, he is a good option for $5,700/$3,600 and he has a team-leading 13.86 in our home run model. Ty France has one home run on the board this season and his hit tool has failed him in early going, but he is still above average for run creation with a 106 WRC+ on the back of his .339 on-base percentage in 118 plate appearances. France is slashing just .245/.339/.363 with a .118 ISO, last season he was at .276/.340/.437 with a .162 ISO but 20 home runs and a 27 % better than average mark for run creation. Jarred Kelenic had the best month of his young career in April, slashing .308/.366/.615 with a titanic .308 ISO and seven home runs. The outfielder is projected to hit third and he has a 10.59 in the home run model tonight. Eugenio Suarez is stuck at two home runs and now the hit tool is returning to its usual form, the third baseman is down to .243/.332/.336 with a measly .093 ISO and has slipped six percent below the league average for run creation. This has been a miserable stretch for Suarez, he has an 8.3% barrel rate and 43.1% hard-hit mark at least, but if he is not hitting for power it is difficult to overcome a 30% strikeout rate and be a productive hitter. Suarez mashed 31 long balls each of the last two seasons, he is an established power bat so this is probably still just a blip, but it is one that warrants concern after 121 plate appearances. Teoscar Hernandez costs just $4,000/$2,900, pairing him with Suarez’s discounted $3,700/$2,700 seems like a great way to potentially buy a pair of home runs or correlated scoring… or six to seven strikeouts. Hernandez is another aggressive free-swinger in this lineup, he has a 32.5% current-year strikeout rate and has walked just 1.7% of the time this season. The outfielder is slashing .209/.248/.427 but he has hit the ball hard when he has made contact, posting a .218 ISO and hitting seven home runs. Hernandez has a 12.59 in the home run model today. Cal Raleigh has five homers on the season to go with a beefy .256 ISO and a 123 WRC+ in his 96 opportunities. The backstop hit 27 home runs in 415 plate appearances last year and has a stout 14.5% barrel rate with a 38.2% hard-hit. Raleigh is a cheap catcher option at just $4,100/$3,000. Taylor Trammell jumped back into this lineup in style the other night, hitting a min-price home run in his first plate appearance. Trammell costs just $2,500/$2,400 and should be low-owned in the bottom third of the lineup. The 25-year-old has yet to stick full-time at the Major League level, but he was a decently well-regarded mid-range power and speed prospect who cracked multiple top-100 lists not too long ago. Trammell is sneaky with a 7.52 in our home run model. JP Crawford and Kolten Wong are not incapable at the bottom of the lineup, Wong is the better overall option for MLB DFS but Crawford has the lone home run between the two this year. Wong hit 15 homers last year and stole 17 bases, he is almost always low-owned and he is cheap at $2,800/$2,300, but he has scuffled to just a .171/.263/.186 with a .014 ISO and a 37 WRC+ in his 80 plate appearances in 2023. Crawford has a 3.21 in the home run model, Wong looks better at 5.40. It is important to reiterate that Mason Miller is a very good young pitcher with elite strikeout stuff and he is facing a lineup that has a ton of strikeouts in it. The average strikeout rate for the projected Mariners lineup this year is 25.8% if we leave out the 40% Trammell posted in just five plate appearances. If we also cut Ty France’s fantastic 13.6% strikeout rate the team average for the remaining seven hitters leaps to 27.5%. While the Mariners may hit a home run or two, Miller could be an important piece of the MLB DFS puzzle in this one as well, and he could punch enough holes in the Mariners’ lineup to severely limit the upside of full stacks tonight.
The Brewers are likely to be a very popular option in Coors Field tonight. The team will be facing righty Ryan Feltner in the game with the highest total on the board in Vegas and they have several premium power hitters lurking in the lineup. Feltner is a low-end starter at the back of the rotation, he made 19 starts last year and had a 4.43 xFIP under a 5.83 ERA in 97.1 innings. The righty struck out just 19.6% and allowed a 42.8% hard-hit rate with a 3.74% home run rate on 89.7 mph of average exit velocity last season, this year he has given up just 87.3 mph of average exit velocity and allowed only a 33.3% hard-hit rate in a tiny 25-inning sample over five starts. Feltner has a 4.57 xFIP despite the good contact numbers, his ERA sits at 4.68 but his strikeout rate has also climbed to 24.5%. Feltner’s 2023 would be better so far were it not for a 12.7% walk rate and 1.48 WHIP, putting extra base runners on in this ballpark is not a recipe for success. The projected lineup for the Brewers sees lefties Christian Yelich and Jesse Winker in the top two spots, though both outfielders have struggled to this point in the season. Yelich has an 83 WRC+ with just a .117 ISO and three home runs in his 117 plate appearances. Winker has been worse in his 63 opportunities, hitting zero home runs and posting a .226/.333/.283 triple-slash with a .057 ISO and a 77 WRC+. Yelich is the better option between the two in an overall sense, the former MVP still hits everything hard, he has a 53.6% hard-hit rate for the season but just a 4.3% barrel rate, getting the ball in the air continues to be his issue at the plate. Winker has simply struggled to put things together in the tiny sample but he should hit over time in this lineup. The outfielders have a 9.27 and 9.47 respectively in the home run model, Winker is the slightly better option for a long ball. Right-handed Willy Adames has experienced little of the struggles of his teammates, he has five home runs on the board this year and is sitting 13% above average for run creation. The shortstop had a .220 ISO and hit 31 home runs last year and was at a .219 with 25 the year before, so there has been a minor dip in power with his ISO at just .190, but that is likely attributable to a sample size of just 121 plate appearances so far. Adames has a 12.7% barrel rate this year, nearly identical to last seasons’s 13% but his hard-hit mark is down from 43.4% to 34.7% so far, explaining the dip in ISO. At $5,900/$3,700, Adames is arguably too cheap for a Coors game. Rowdy Tellez has an 11.1% barrel rate and a 44.4% hard-hit this season and he is pulling in a team-leading 14.21 in our home run model, ranking him third on the entire slate for today. Tellez has eight home runs in 99 plate appearances this season, posting a .306 ISO with a 130 WRC+. In 599 plate appearances last year he hit 35 homers with a .242 ISO, there is major upside in the big lefty bat for just $4,800/$3,800 tonight. William Contreras is an excellent option at catcher, he is slashing .295/.382/.397 this year and he has created runs 17% better than average. While the power has been mostly out – Contreras has one home run in 89 opportunities and just a .103 ISO so far – the backstop did hit 20 home runs in 376 plate appearances last year with a .228 ISO. For the price, ballpark, matchup, and skillset, Contreras is likely to be the most popular catcher on tonight’s slate. Brian Anderson slots in with third base and outfield eligibility on both sites for $4,100/$3,800 with the blue site obviously holding him in higher esteem. Anderson has had a good start at .255/.330/.459 with a .204 ISO and a 112 WRC+, he has five home runs on the board and has made good contact so far this season. Anderson has a 7.05 in our home run model however, it is worth noting that he is the dip-point after a run of players rated no lower than Yelich’s 9.27. The home run rating drops to just 4.00 for Brice Turang, who has two on the board this season but just a .107 ISO and a 58 WRC+. Turang has a 3.9% barrel rate and a 33.3% hard-hit, the low rating is probably inflated by the environmental factors, he is not much of a home run hitter right now. Mike Brosseau and Joey Weimer round out the projected lineup with a 6.55 and 6.67 in our home run model. Brosseau has three on the season with a .224 ISO but does more of his damage against left-handed pitching, Weimer has a pair of home runs and a .143 ISO but just an 86 WRC+ and a low-end contact profile. The Brewers lineup is in play from top to bottom in any form in this ballpark and matchup of course, they will be a popular but probably worthwhile MLB DFS option tonight.
