A short four-game afternoon main slate gets started early at 12:35 ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The slate includes an interesting mix of pitchers, with several young highly regarded prospect pitchers taking the mound for their respective teams but also showing power on the other side. Even the veteran starters on the board are not invulnerable to power, but Dylan Cease is in a very good spot facing the low-end Guardians lineup without Jose Ramirez.
Main Slate Power Index – 5/18/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column averages our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their most significant bats.
The Rays are facing Mets righty Tylor Megill who has not been in his best form through the early part of the season. Megill was good in 47.1 innings last year and 89.2 innings the year before, pitching to a 26.1% strikeout rate and 3.92 xFIP in the larger sample in 2021 and a 25.5% strikeout rate with a 3.35 xFIP last year. This season he has dropped to a 17.3% strikeout rate with a 4.02 ERA and 5.31 xFIP over 40.1 innings in eight starts. The righty’s walk rate has doubled from 6.5% to 12.3% and his swinging-strike rate has fallen from 11.6% to 8.9% with a 25% CSW%. Megill has not been lousy for power to this point, but his 7.3% barrel rate and 89.1 mph average exit velocity allowed are not limiting factors. The Rays projected lineup has been hitting for power from top to bottom, everyone in the batting order is well over a .200 ISO on the season so far, they average a .251 ISO for the season for the lineup. Harold Ramirez is projected to lead off, he is slashing .330/.380/.554 with a .223 ISO and he has created runs 63% better than average over 121 plate appearances. Ramirez has always had a good bat but he is hitting for more power this season yet costs just $3,900/$3,100 at first base. Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe are a powerful pair in the infield, Franco has seven home runs and 14 stolen bases while creating runs 38% better than average, Lowe has a team-leading 13.04 in our home run model for the day, and has eight on the board already this year. Randy Arozarena sits just behind Lowe with a 12.44 in the home run model, he has hit 10 this season and has a .234 ISO with an 18.5% barrel rate and 52.1% hard-hit rate for $5,500/$4,100. Isaac Paredes has six home runs and sits just below the magic number for power at 9.97, he checks in cheap at $3,400/$3,000. Josh Lowe has hit nine home runs and is slashing .300/.364/.608 with a massive .308 ISO and 170 WRC+ over 132 plate appearances in a major step forward so far this season. Taylor Walls has multi-position eligibility in the infield for $3,800/$3,400, he has been playing above his head over 115 plate appearances with seven home runs and a .287 ISO. Catcher Christian Bethancourt is an underappreciated asset where the position is required, he has six home runs and a .261 ISO while creating runs six percent better than average and costs just $3,600/$2,900. Luke Raley hits for power from the left side, he has an 11.29 as a sneaky power option from the end of the lineup.
