The 10-game main slate gets started at 7:07 ET tonight and features a fairly loaded board for power with a handful of good to decent pitching options. This has the makings of a slate that will be won by the combination of two big offensive outbursts in team stacks with several viable pitchers at different price points acting as the determining factor between the available hitter combinations. Between the excellent power teams facing low-end pitching and the presence of a Coors Field game, there should be a smorgasbord of run-creation options around the league this evening.
Main Slate Power Index – 5/15/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column is the average of our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their most significant bats.
The Braves are in Texas to face the Rangers in the debut of lefty Cody Bradford, a 25-year-old former sixth-round pick. Bradford threw 118.2 innings in AA last year, pitching to a 5.01 ERA with a 4.88 xFIP and a 24.7% strikeout rate. The lefty has a matching strikeout rate in 39.2 innings in AAA this season with an absurd ERA to xFIP differential of an ERA at 0.91 and an xFIP that sits at 5.19. The latter mark is probably far more telling of the true quality of the unranked prospect, Bradford looks more like a target for bats, he allowed 18 home runs to 503 hitters in AA last year, a 3.58% home run rate, the Braves are notably somewhat better than the average AA team. Ronald Acuna Jr. has a 13.40 in our home run model, landing him third on the Braves today. The superstar outfielder is slashing .346/.437/.577 with a .231 ISO while creating runs 74% better than average over 183 plate appearances, he has eight home runs and 17 stolen bases and is worth the $6,300/$4,600 asking price. Acuna has immense power to go with his outrageously good everything, he makes fantastic contact with regularity, posting a current-year barrel rate of 14.3% with a 52.6% hard-hit rate. Matt Olson is at a 17.8% barrel rate and 51.1% hard-hit rate, he has 11 home runs on the season with a .273 ISO and has created runs 34% better than average. Olson is a bit cheap on the DraftKings slate, his FanDuel price seems more correct, the first baseman costs $5,500/$4,100. Austin Riley has six home runs with just a .149 ISO and a league average 100 WRC+ over 177 uncharacteristic plate appearances. The third baseman hit 38 home runs with a 142 WRC+ last year and 33 with a 135 WRC+ the year before, his slump has been a concern but all expectations are that Riley will hit. Sean Murphy has no such concerns, the catcher is having an outrageously good season. Murphy leads the team with a 21.8% barrel rate and has a 44.8% hard-hit rate in his 146 plate appearances, translating the premium contact into nine home runs and a .303 ISO. The backstop has created runs 64% better than average, he can be used on both sites with enthusiasm, Murphy is not the typical catcher with the bat in his hands, which is why he costs $4,200 on FanDuel, yet he is priced at just $5,000 on the DraftKings slate. Ozzie Albies moved up in the lineup and delivered last night, he returns to the fifth spot in the projected batting order and now has 10 home runs with a .247 ISO and 112 WRC+. Albies is a star second baseman who is not treated like one, he is priced at just $4,800/$3,300. Marcell Ozuna has seven home runs and a .245 ISO but is slashing .170/.278/.415. The outfielder strikes out just 21.3% of the time, he is not a problematic over-swinger, and he has a 13% walk rate that does not make sense with his lowly on-base percentage until one takes note of a ridiculously bad .141 batting average on balls in play. Ozuna has been hitting the ball very hard with regularity and has gotten extraordinarily unlucky with some of the results, he is better than what can be seen in the surface stats, his barrel rate sits at 15.5% with a 43.7% hard-hit rate, for example, and he costs just $2,600/$2,800 with a 10.90 in our home run model. Kevin Pillar has four home runs with a .224 ISO in an early power display over 72 plate appearances, but the veteran is here more for defense. Michael Harriss II has scuffled and missed time in his sophomore season, he is slashing just .217/.319/.317 with one home run and four stolen bases. Orlando Arcia has two home runs and is slashing .313/.361/.478 over 72 plate appearances but is not much of a home-run hitter. At just $3,600/$2,900 at shortstop on DraftKings and with three-position eligibility on FanDuel, Arcia could be sneaky-interesting from the bottom of the Atlanta lineup in a handful of stacks of Braves.
Yankees starter Jhony Brito, as we have said several times since his debut, is not a premium Major League starter. Brito is at a level where that sentence could basically be repeated without the word “premium” and still qualify, the righty is a very low-end option that is here covering for injuries in the New York rotation. Brito’s first outing remains his best start of the season, he threw five innings and struck out six Giants who were not expecting his dynamic changeup. Since then, Brito struck out two in 5.0, zero in a disastrous 0.2-inning start, three in 4.1, one in 2.2, five in 5.0, two in 4.0, and three in 4.1, he has not been finding strikeouts and he has not pitched in the sixth inning yet in his career. Brito has allowed at least one home run in four of his eight starts, with two allowed in each of the last two games for a total of six. The righty’s home run rate for the season is 4.35% on a 39% hard-hit rate and 89.1 mph of average exit velocity, with a 14% barrel rate. Brito has struck out just 15.9% and has walked 10.1% over 31 innings in his eight starts, he has a 5.81 ERA and a 5.62 xFIP while inducing a nine percent swinging-strike rate with just a 24.9% CSW%. The Blue Jays are a very good team that hits the ball exceptionally hard, they should be in line for a big performance against this pitcher. George Springer got back on the power board with a home run yesterday, he now has five for the season as well as the hope and faith of MLB DFS and fantasy baseball fans that this is the start of the turnaround for the struggling star. Springer has a 13.93 in our home run model tonight for just $4,600/$2,800. Bo Bichette has eight home runs with a .195 ISO and 145 WRC+ this season, he has an 11.4% barrel rate and 49.3% hard-hit rate for the year while slashing .320/.365/.515. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a 16.76 in our home run model to lead the team and the slate as a whole. The star first baseman is slashing .315/.392/.523 with a .208 ISO while creating runs 55% better than average, and he has a 16.4% barrel rate and 57% hard-hit rate so far this year, Guerrero is well worth the investment of just $5,800/$3,800. Daulton Varsho slots into the outfield at $4,600/$3,000 after struggling through his first 164 plate appearances this season. The left-handed slugger has a 9.2% barrel rate but just a 35.8% hard-hit percentage for the season, which has translated to six home runs. The outfielder his 27 homers on similar contact just last season, he had a 10.2% barrel rate and 35.3% hard-hit rate, so there is room for belief, but perhaps not a lock for faith with the player in the longer term. Matt Chapman costs $5,300/$3,700 at third base, he is slashing .317/.404/.538 with a .221 ISO and 162 WRC+ over 166 plate appearances, but he has cooled somewhat since the scorching start. Chapman can start a new run of productivity on any given day, hot and cold do not exist in reality, the slugging cornerman is one of the top options at his position and his price has taken a small dip, take advantage of the opportunity against this pitcher. Alejandro Kirk has two home runs but just a 33.3% hard-hit rate this season, which is way down from the 45% that helped him blast 14 home runs in 541 chances last year. Brandon Belt is a stout left-handed homer-hitting veteran from late in the lineup for just $2,200/$2,500. Belt is slashing .244/.330/.407 with a .163 ISO and 107 WRC+ in his 97 plate appearances with a lot to like about his contact profile with a 13% barrel rate and 43.5% hard-hit for the year, he has the highest rating in the second half of the lineup in our home run model at 9.65. Whit Merrifield is slashing .281/.336/.380 with a 101 WRC+ and 12 stolen bases so far this year, he is a viable correlation option at $3,900/$3,000 either at second base or in the outfield. Kevin Kiermaier has a pair of home runs and is off to a strong start at .311/.376/.481 with a 140 WRC+ but he has just a 5.18 in our home run model.
