The gargantuan 13-game main slate gets started at the traditional 7:05 ET lock time this evening and features a loaded list of options both at the mound and on the plate. The Yankees will be facing a converted bullpen arm who is likely going to short-start as more of an opener before ceding to the sturdy Rays bullpen, but a warm evening in the Bronx should have the ball flying. The Cardinals bounce up the board in their matchup against a long-absent veteran southpaw, and the Angels are looking interesting for power on the backs of their star right-handed home run hitters pushing the average up somewhat inordinately against a good rookie hurler, which can also be said about the White Sox against J.P. France, who was not projected to be a top-end arm but who has performed well so far and has electric stuff.
Main Slate Power Index – 5/12/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column is the average of our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their most significant bats.
The Yankees are facing right-handed Trevor Kelley who checks in at $4,000/$5,500 and is making his first start in an opener role. Kelley is 30 years old and has made 33 appearances in the Show, all in relief, he should not be expected for more than an inning or two, but the top of the Yankees lineup is aligned to do some damage against the righty early before getting to a long reliever like Josh Fleming. Tampa Bay pitching is not on the board tonight, but Yankees bats should be a significant consideration on a slate of this size, particularly after the return of their superstar home run hitter this week. Leadoff man Anthony Volpe is slashing .199/.292/.338 with a .140 ISO and 79 WRC+ in 154 plate appearances, but he has shown signs of life driving the ball recently and has four home runs with a 9.7% barrel rate and 44.1% hard-hit, Volpe is in consideration for individual upside and has good correlated scoring reasons for being in a Yankees stack. The shortstop has a 12.80 in our home run model tonight. Aaron Judge is taking the top off of the home run model this evening and looks set to mash. He has six so far this year with a .233 ISO and a 22.4% barrel rate with a 62.7% hard-hit rate, Judge is an all-world home run hitter who costs $6,200/$3,800. Anthony Rizzo is our overall home run pick for the night, slotting in at a 20.97 in the home run model. The left-handed first baseman has a 42.7% hard-hit rate with a 9.1% barrel rate and six home runs on the season, he should be aligned well to target the right-field seats tonight. DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres have held up the Yankees lineup during the absences and slumps of some teammates, LeMahieu is creating runs 26% better than average, Torres 25%. they have a 10.12 and 16.04 in the home run model respectively tonight and both make dynamite options in stacks of Yankees bats at $4,000/$3,000 with multi-position eligibility for LeMahieu and $5,300/$3,000 for Torres. The Yankees are cheap on the whole on the FanDuel slate tonight. Harrison Bader costs just $4,000/$3,500 he has three home runs and a 249 WRC+ with a .433 ISO in his 32 plate appearances since returning from injury and has been a catalyst for the Yankees offense for the past week. The bottom third falls off around Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Jose Trevino, and Oswaldo Cabrera, better home run options in those spots would include Jake Bauers and Kyle Higashioka.
