The split slate on Wednesday sees a six-game FanDuel main slate starting at 6:35 ET and a four-game DraftKings night slate starting at 7:20 ET, and skipping over the Rays vs Orioles and Mets vs Reds games in favor of a large early afternoon slate. The board for the main slate features some very interesting results, including Red Sox starter Brayan Bello having a suppressive impact on the powerful Atlanta Braves, and the Padres rating out highly for power against effective Pablo Lopez. The short pitching slate should provide the opportunity to roster a broad spread of bats while focusing on a tight core of the top pitching options at a range of prices tonight.
Main Slate Power Index – 5/10/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column is the average of our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their most significant bats.
The Padres are at the top of the board partly on the back of a massive total for their superstar in the leadoff role in our home run model this evening. Fernando Tatis Jr. is the rising tide lifting Padres’ boats with a 20.29, doubling up the magic number in a matchup against a good pitcher who has been outstanding so far in 2023. The balance of the Padres lineup has more normal ratings in the home run model, with only Manny Machado and Juan Soto also cracking the 10 mark at 13.17 and 13.67. The trio of stars is playable in almost any situation for MLB DFS purposes and they are joined by capable teammates in the top half of the lineup, including the team’s fourth star Xander Bogaerts, who checks in with an 8.19 in the home run model today. Minnesota starter Pablo Lopez is no slouch, however, the righty has been very good throughout his career, last season he had a 3.75 ERA and a 3.56 xFIP with a 23.6% strikeout rate over 180 innings in 32 starts, he was simply overshadowed by the dominance of his Cy Young Award-winning teammate in Miami. Lopez has been terrific since joining the Twins, he spoke in the offseason about his amazement with the quality of the team’s analytics department and the suggestions they had made in video sessions before he even took the mound in the Spring, the results have been stark to this point. In seven starts and 43 innings, Lopez has a 30.7% strikeout rate with a 5.7% walk rate and a 3.77 ERA with a 3.34 xFIP. The righty has induced a 14.6% swinging-strike rate with a 29.3% CSW% both numbers are well up from last season’s already good 12.7% and 28.1%. Lopez has never been bad with contact, he gave up a 35.1% hard-hit rate with 87.9 mph of average exit velocity and a 2.85% home run rate, this year he is sitting at a 38% hard-hit rate with a 2.27% home run rate on 86.2 mph of average exit velocity. Lopez does allow barrels consistently, this season is at 9.3%, up slightly from 9.0% and Lopez has allowed a single home run in four of his seven starts, zero in the other three. This is an interesting matchup on both sides, the Padres may not be the best option for full stacking, Lopez is more likely to allow a couple of runs with a home run included than he is to get completely lit up by the Padres tonight, despite the individual power that is showing. The Padres do offer plenty of quality options at the plate though, Tatis has four home runs in 77 plate appearances since his return, and leads off with a monster number in the home run model. Jake Cronenworth moved up to the second spot in the lineup last night and is slated to play there again. Cronenworth is more of a correlated scoring play, but he has three home runs in 145 plate appearances this year and he hit 17 in 684 opportunities last year, so he has individual upside as well. Machado got back on the home run board last night and now has five for the season with a .154 ISO and 98 WRC+. Soto has five home runs of his own, he had a nice day at the plate yesterday and pushed his triple-slash to .244/.400/.433 with a .189 ISO while creating runs 34% better than average. Bogaerts has six home runs with a 128 WRC+ and a .174 ISO but has dipped to .273/.366/.447. That group of players is relatively inexpensive for their talents as well, Tatis is naturally the priciest option at $6,100/$3,700 but the FanDuel number is easily a bargain for his talents; Cronenworth is not priced up for the move up the lineup if that is where he hits, he costs just $3,800/$2,800 with eligibility at first and second base; Machado is still cheap for his early struggles at $4,800/$3,000; Soto costs $5,100/$3,500; and Bogaerts is just $4,700/$3.500. After that group the lineup takes a bit of a nosedive, but there are playable parts in Ha-Seong Kim and Trent Grisham, with the possibility that Matt Carpenter gets himself involved if he plays. Kim is slashing .229/.328/.358 with a .128 ISO and three home runs, Grisham has four home runs with a .188 ISO and has posted solid contact with a 16.5% barrel rate. Carpenter is slated to hit sixth, he has a 16.7% barrel rate but just a 29.2% hard-hit rate so far this season, and he has turned the contact into three home runs and a .211 ISO in 87 plate appearances. Brett Sullivan closes out the lineup as a cheap catcher for $2,300/$2,200, he has one home run in 23 plate appearances in the Show.
The Mets vs Reds game is not available on the limited DraftKings night slate, but it looks like an excellent option on the FanDuel main slate this evening. Cincinnati’s bandbox home stadium plays extremely well for power and the Mets bring plenty of it to the plate in a matchup against right-handed Hunter Greene. The Reds’ hurler has been good so far in his Major League career, he made 24 starts and threw 125.2 innings last year, bursting onto the scene with a 30.9% strikeout rate as a rookie. Greene walked too many at nine percent and he allowed too much premium contact with a 40.1% hard-hit rate and a 9.4% barrel rate on a 20.7-degree average launch angle. The flyball profile and premium contact resulted in a 4.52% home run rate allowed in what was otherwise an excellent season, the righty had a 4.44 ERA and a 3.64 xFIP and induced a 14.5% swinging-strike rate with a 29.2% CSW% for the year, he is very good. Greene has made seven starts this season and he has gotten better basically across the board. The righty has a 31.3% strikeout rate across 33.2 innings, his ERA sits at 3.74 with a 3.67 xFIP and he has pushed swinging strikes to 15.7% in the small sample. Greene has cut his walks by a percentage point in early returns and he has a CSW% that is up slightly at 29.5%, but he is still giving up contact that can lead to loud mistakes, in the event that he makes a mistake at all. Greene’s barrel rate allowed is still sitting at nine percent this season and he has allowed more hard hits, with his rate climbing to 43.8% while average exit velocity bumps from 89.7 mph to 90.5 mph. Even with those contact results, Greene has allowed only a two percent home run rate so far this year, he allowed a homer to Pittsburgh in his first outing, then went five straight without coughing up a longball before yielding two to the White Sox in his last outing. However, it is extremely noteworthy that only one of those five clean starts was a home game in the hitter-friendly park, and Greene came out of that game against the Rays after only three innings when he was struck by a hard-hit ball; the two games in which Greene has allowed home runs were his two other home starts so far this year. New York brings plenty of power to bear, cleanup hitter Pete Alonso alone has a major upside on this slate, checking in at a 16.85 in our home run model tonight. Alonso has 12 homers on the season after reaching 10 with several days left in April. The first baseman costs just $3,800 on the FanDuel slate tonight, he is a significant option both in Mets stacks and as a one-off play at first base. Alonso has a 17% barrel rate and a 43% hard-hit rate for the season while slashing .237/.322/.526 with a .289 ISO. Alonso is not the only worthwhile Mets hitter tonight, is joined by solid options above and below him in the lineup. Brandon Nimmo is one of the best leadoff hitters in the game, he is slashing .300/.400/.446 with a 141 WRC+ so far this year and he has hit three home runs with three stolen bases. Nimmo is striking out at just a 17.9% clip with a 12.2% walk rate, and he is achieving premium contact regularly with a 48.6% hard-hit rate, he is an option to frustrate Greene early ahead of the team’s power core. Francisco Lindor has a 10.3% barrel rate and a 43.3% hard-hit rate this season which has amounted to a .224 ISO with six home runs. The star shortstop is priced down at $3,300 on FanDuel tonight, he has an 11.31 in our home run model, putting him above the magic number at a premium position and a cheap price. Lindor seems likely to be popular in that scenario, but individual popularity should not be the primary concern, there are plenty of ways to offset ownership in lineup combinations. Lindor has a .224/.323/.448 triple slash this year, he was a .270/.339/.449 hitter last year and his WRC+ has dipped from 127 to 116 year-over-year, but that just means there is more quality coming at a discount. Jeff McNeil slots in third in the lineup, he is slashing .280/.384/.392 with a .112 ISO while creating runs 25% better than average. McNeil is a hit tool specialist who typically has support from a very strong batting average on balls in play, when he underperforms it is usually directly attributable to a dip in that statistic. For example, in 2021, McNeil’s BABIP dipped to just .280 after three seasons sitting between .335 and .359. That year was the first season he did not hit .300 or get on base at a .380 clip, he slashed just .251/.319/.360 and had a 92 WRC+ after running 136, 144, 131 to start his career. Last year, McNeil came roaring back, posting a .353 BABIP and slashing .326/.382/.454 with a 143 WRC+ but so far in 2023, he has been at just a .297 BABIP. The dip is apparent in his batting average to this point, but he has covered it in his on-base percentage by pushing walks to a career-high 11%. The slap-hitter needs good fortune to be on his side, his lack of premium contact and power makes every potential base hit critical to his numbers. In the words of Crash Davis:
“Do you know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? It’s 25 hits. 25 hits in 500 at-bats is 50 points, okay?
There’s six months in a season. That’s about 25 weeks that means if you get just one extra flare a week, just one gork; a groundball; you get a groundball with eyes; you get a dying quail; just one more dying quail a week … and you’re in Yankee Stadium.
McNeil is the modern portrait of that exact concept. He is also not a strong option for a home run tonight, but he makes for his typically excellent correlated scoring piece in the heart of the lineup. Alonso hits after McNeil and is one of our favorite overall options for a homer tonight. Brett Baty is hitting fifth in the projected lineup, which should be his home for years to come. Baty has arrived in full form, he is slashing .271/.338/.424 with a .153 ISO and has created runs 15% better than average over the first 65 plate appearances of his career, with two home runs on the board already. Those numbers are likely to go up, the rookie has an 8.84 in our home run model and is one of the team’s capable left-handed bats against Greene. Starling Marte lands in the sixth spot in the projected lineup, but he may hit higher in the batting order. The Mets have relegated him somewhat on the back of a .223/.298/.286 triple-slash. Marte has just one home run this year but he has swiped nine bases to give his MLB DFS relevance a weak pulse. The outfielder is creating runs 29% worse than average so far but he is cheap at $2,800. Daniel Vogelbach costs $2,500 at first base, he is not going to be nearly as popular at the position as Alonso, but there is no universe in which the two are a direct pivot for anything other than popularity. Vogelbach can be deployed in lineups alongside Alonso for his power upside and as that popularity pivot in large field tournaments, but he has just two home runs in 87 plate appearances with a .143 ISO so far this year. The split and the stadium play in Vogelbach’s favor tonight and he does have a 48% hard-hit rate, so there is a nice chance for him to get into one, he has a 9.51 in our home run model tonight. Mark Canha slots in with a 6.66 in the home run model, he has three this season with a .144 ISO and is a lower-end option. Tomas Nido has zero home runs this year, he hit three last year in 313 plate appearances but is more of a defensive catcher, Francisco Alvarez would be the more interesting backstop for MLB DFS purposes.
