Well, that’s annoying. The Saturday evening main slate features five games, four and a half if you consider the version of the Yankees lineup that will be taking the field. The annoying part is that the Coors Field game is very obvious in a setup like this, but it also lands with both teams at the top of the day’s Power Index. While this is encouraging for those looking for affirmation of their belief in the big ballpark, it is an irritant for those MLB DFS gamers who would prefer to take stands in the four other ballparks while letting the public get over the field at Coors. That does not seem to be an overly viable option on this slate, given the massive run total in Vegas and the atrocious pitching matchup. That said, at the very least, the Rangers also look interesting in their matchup against Jhony Brito, the Rays score approximately 14 runs a game one way or another, and the lousy White Sox could be frisky in an opener-bullpen handoff.
Main Slate Power Index – 4/29/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column is the average of our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their biggest bats.
The game at Coors Field is carrying a 12.5-run total on the board in Vegas, three full runs higher than the 9.5 in the Rays vs White Sox game, and at least four runs higher than every other game on the board, making it worth essentially half-again as much as any of those games when it comes to run expectation, which is simply absurd. Both sides of this one should be overwhelmingly popular for MLB DFS contests in all formats on both DraftKings and FanDuel, with the Diamondbacks taking the lead position as the better team with the more interesting bats on probably the better side of a no-wrong-answer matchup. Arizona is projected to face righty Noah Davis, who has two starts and 9.2 innings under his belt this year and had one relief inning on his ledger in 2022. Davis is no hotshot prospect, he is unranked, just turned 26, and lacks a track record of success in the minors. In 133.1 innings and 26 starts in AA last year, Davis had a 4.68 xFIP with a 5.54 ERA, a 25.9% strikeout rate, and a major home run problem. Davis allowed 26 long balls to 588 hitters, a 4.42% home run rate, in AA. Daivs is having an inflating effect on the Diamondbacks’ home run marks in our model, almost the entire team is above 10, with Christian Walker leading the way at a titanic 29.5. Walker has three home runs so far this season with a .161 ISO and he has been struggling with his premium contact, but we know there is a monster power bat lurking, and he is priced way down in a Coors Field game. At $4,100/$3,500 in this matchup and ballpark, Walker is an absolute smash spot for power potential. Leadoff man Josh Rojas has no home runs and a .085 ISO for the year, he hit nine homers in 510 plate appearances last year and 11 in 550 the year before, he is at an 8.37 in the home run model. Ketel Marte drops in with a 15.92, he has three home runs and has been squaring the ball up nicely with a .206 ISO and a 41.5% hard-hit rate. Marte hit 12 and 14 home runs the past two seasons, he is a strong option at second base on both sites. Corbin Carroll is second on the team at 18.25 in the home run model. The rookie has a .237 ISO and has created runs 51% better than average in his 103 plate appearances this year with four home runs and 10 stolen bases. Carroll is MLB DFS dynamite, he adds explosive upside to any lineup and he could go off in a number of ways in this ballpark even without taking the ball over the fence. Walker is slated to hit cleanup in the projected lineup, with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. batting fifth. Gurriel checks in with one home run and a .117 ISO over his 100 plate appearances in 2023, but his strong 48.7% hard-hit percentage plays very well in this ballpark, and he is a player who hit 21 home runs in 2021, though he managed just five last year in an otherwise strong season. Gurriel needs to barrel the ball and elevate more frequently to capitalize on his power, he is in play without a home run but also sits well above the magic number with a 13.50 in the home run model. Pavin Smith has a 12% barrel rate and a 56% hard-hit rate over his 43 plate appearances, which has amounted to a pair of home runs and a .257 ISO, which is very good for a part-time player who is treated as a non-entity by the MLB DFS community. Smith will not be unpopular if he is in the lineup tonight, no one in this game will be on a five-game slate, but it is possible that he will be one of the lower-owned options who still has reasonable upside. The first baseman is priced at $4,000/$3,700, which most will see as high for him, even in this situation. Smith adds outfield eligibility on the blue site, helping his cause, he has a 12.70 in the home run model tonight. Catcher Gabriel Moreno does not scoop the big power bump that his teammates do, he is at just a 3.99 in the home run model and is better as a positional correlation play. Alek Thomas has two home runs in 84 opportunities this year, with a .149 ISO and a 60 WRC+, the left-handed outfielder has not been good and he was mediocre at best in 411 plate appearances last year, hitting eight home runs with a 71 WRC+ and a .113 ISO, but he costs $3,200/$2,900 in Coors field and has managed a respectable 8.6% barrel rate with a good 48.3% hard-hit in the tiny current-year sample. Geraldo Perdomo has a .204 ISO with one home run on the board and he has created runs 80% better than average in his 65 plate appearances. Perdomo makes a compelling case for wraparound shares if he is in the final spot in the Arizona lineup tonight.
The Rangers will be facing Jhony Brito, a flawed pitcher who has been miscast covering injuries in the Yankees’ rotation. Brito had a good first game, striking out six Giants hitters over five clean innings. He has totaled six strikeouts in his next four outings combined. That is the true Brito, the first start was an outlier and, as we said at the time, it will almost certainly stand as his best start all year. Brito has two true pitches, a Major League quality power-sinker that was grading out with a 107 Stuff+ mark during Spring Training, and an effective changeup that does not seem special in the long term but does help the starter induce weak contact, which has been his primary saving grace in most of his outings. Brito also throws a middling curveball and a basic four-seam fastball, but the sinker-change combination is his primary arsenal. Over his 17.2 innings, Brito has a 6.11 ERA with a 5.56 xFIP and a 1.53 WHIP, he has generated a 9.6% swinging-strike rate and has just a 22.7% CSW%, if teams simply wait on him he will implode, which was the start-one book on this pitcher. Brito has not allowed much power to this point, opposing hitters have managed just a 1.28% home run rate with a 33.9% hard-hit rate, but that may not hold against this hard-hitting Rangers squad, particularly when considering the 12.5% barrel rate on a 15.2-degree average launch angle that Brito is giving up, a squared up pitch should travel. Marcus Semien has five homers with a .202 ISO, he hit 26 home runs last year and a massive 45 the season before and is one of the top second basemen in baseball at the dish. Semien is justifiably expensive at $5,900/$4,100 tonight. Travis Jankowski put up a strong MLB DFS score just last night, he creates points via his hit tool and his speed, and with some help from his friends in the lineup, Jankowski has no home runs and just a .100 ISO in his 57 plate appearances, but he is creating runs 38% better than average in the small sample and is slashing .320/.404/.420 with four stolen bases. Jankowski is not a major home run threat, he has just a 2.38 in our model, which looks a bit awkward for him among the 10.84 carried by Semien, and the 11.06 and 10.68 for the next two hitters. Those are, of course, Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia, who check in with three and seven home runs respectively so far. Lowe is slashing .257/.319/.438 with a .181 ISO and a 110 WRC+. The first baseman hit 27 home runs with a .191 ISO and a 143 WRC+ last season, so we know there is upside beyond the already good numbers he has posted over 116 plate appearances this year. Garcia has a 13.2% barrel rate with a 51.3% hard-hit which has translated to a .255 ISO with a .520 slugging percentage. The outfielder has wheels in addition to his power, though he has stolen only one base this season. He swiped 25 with 27 home runs as a major MLB DFS scoring asset last season, Garcia is also pricey but worth it at $5,700/$4,000. Third baseman Josh Jung slotted back into the lineup after being listed as day-to-day, assuming he plays again tonight he is another good power consideration who also provides cost savings. Jung has hit five home runs and has a .204 ISO with a 121 WRC+ in his 100 plate appearances this season. He has barreled the ball at a 10% clip with a 43.3% hard-hit rate but struggles with strikeouts that could leave holes in a DFS lineup. Jung is priced at just $3,900/$3,300, he is a better option at the lower relative cost on DraftKings but is in play from site to site and could go lower-owned than some of his teammates where only four players can be stacked. Jonah Heim has a 12.3% barrel rate with a 49.1% hard-hit percentage and four home runs in just 81 plate appearances. The catcher is a somewhat underappreciated asset at his position on larger slates, in a spot like tonight’s he will probably be popular on DraftKings, but could be lower-owned on FanDuel for $3,500. Ezequiel Duran slots in with shortstop and outfield eligibility for just $2,500 on DraftKings and he adds second base eligibility for the same price on the blue site. Duran is slashing .291/.328/.400 with a 105 WRC+, he has hit a home run and stolen a base in his 58 plate appearances and is getting more of a shot to produce this season. Duran has flashed interesting mid-range power and speed in his minor league career, he is in play from the late lineup for Texas stacks and his flexibility at a cheap price makes him a usable one-off part. Josh Smith and Leody Taveras are at a 3.82 and 5.12 in the home run model, they have combined for one home run in 115 plate appearances this year and hit seven together in 594 combined tries last year, Ruth and Gherig these two are not.
