The small Thursday main slate includes just five games on both DraftKings and FanDuel, with a 6:40 ET start. Outside of the top squad on the power index, the other nine teams on the board are showing mid-to-low-grade power upside on this one, though there may be some small sample noise in the Orioles’ rating against the opposing pitcher in Detroit. The Yankees lead the way but they are facing a high-strikeout veteran starter who could give them fits and gamers could come away with more zeroes than expected from the powerful but free-swinging Bronx Bombers. The slate includes several viable pitchers, but there should be a true concentration of ownership around the top options, so spreading out across a lot of similar-looking bats is a good approach.
Main Slate Power Index – 4/27/23 – DraftKings & FanDuel Main Slates
The power index represents a team’s opportunity for home run upside in the matchup against the scheduled starting pitcher. This is not a direct guideline for stacking, but it can be utilized to determine the most likely sources of power-based contact, hitters who are not homering are frequently hitting doubles and driving in runs, and providing valuable MLB DFS scoring. The “Full” column is the average of our home run opportunity score for each player in the lineup from 1-9, while the “Top 6” column averages only hitters 1-6, where teams typically place their biggest bats.
The Yankees will be in Texas tonight in the warmest game environment on the board but with only the third-highest implied team total overall. New York will be facing veteran lefty Andrew Heaney, a strong strikeout pitcher who has a track record of coughing up home runs while still pitching well. Heaney made 14 starts and threw 72.2 innings last year, he had a stellar 2.83 xFIP with a 3.10 ERA but allowed a 47.7% hard-hit rate, an 11% barrel rate, and 91.2 mph of average exit velocity that amounted to a 4.52% home run rate. The year before, Heaney was better at limiting premium contact, to a degree, opposing hitters managed a 9.4% barrel rate and a 39.1% hard-hit with 89.3 mph of average exit velocity over Heaney’s 129.2 innings in 23 starts that season, but he still allowed a 5.20% home run rate and pitched to a 4.12 xFIP and 5.83 ERA that year. Heaney has always been good for strikeouts, he had a 26.9% rate in the bumpy 2021 season and was dominant with a 35.5% over his short season in 2022. So far this year, the southpaw has made four starts and covered 18.2 innings, depth is also not this starter’s specialty. He has a 24.7% strikeout rate but an 11.1% walk rate with a 4.91 xFIP and a 1.34 WHIP. The free passes are uncharacteristic and likely just a blip, but Heaney has had bad years for allowing baserunners in the past, his 2021 WHIP was 1.32, for example. Despite a 10% barrel rate allowed in the short sample so far this year, Heaney has yielded just 34% hard hits and 87.4 mph of average exit velocity, and he has just a 2.47% home run rate so far, allowing two long balls in his disastrous 2.2-inning first start of the season against the Orioles and none since. Heaney struck out 10 Royals in five innings in his second start and went back-to-back five-inning starts without allowing a run before giving up two on five hits but no home runs against the Athletics in his last outing. The diminished version of the Yankees lineup still has a good amount of power, particularly on the right side, and their primary lefty has always been a strong contributor against same-handed pitching despite a dip in power output. Rookie leadoff man Anthony Volpe has his on-base percentage up to .358, which is dynamite given his speed on the basepaths. Volpe has stolen eight bases in his 95 plate appearances so far this season and is now slashing .228/.358/.354 with a pair of home runs and a 109 WRC+. The shortstop remains very cheap at $3,800/$2,800, he is an excellent correlation piece with the sluggers who follow in the Yankees lineup and should be fairly popular on the small slate, which does not disqualify him from consideration. Aaron Judge fairly costs $6,300 on DraftKings, his $3,800 on FanDuel is too low. This hitter should never be below the $6,000/$4,000 line, if you see him there just play him as a rule. Judge is slashing .267/.358/.522 with a .256 ISO and six home runs, adding two stolen bases to his tally. The Yankees’ captain has created runs 42% better than average over 106 plate appearances in 2023, he was 107% better than average in his staggering season of 62 home runs just last year. That is a high standard, but Judge’s run creation numbers should push higher as the season continues, and he has a slate-leading 20.03 in tonight’s home run model. Anthony Rizzo is the aforementioned key lefty in this lineup. Rizzo has been excellent since coming to New York, finally giving the Yankees the left-handed power-hitting first baseman that they had lacked through most of the 2010s, and he has had a terrific career with multiple seasons of 30 or more home runs. For his career, Rizzo sees his ISO and triple-slash dip somewhat against same-handed pitching, with a .228 against righties and a .186 against lefties, but while his run creation does dip from a 133 to a 120 WRC+, that is still 20% better than average, which is fine in this lineup for the salary requirement. Rizzo is a key bat who may go under-owned, he costs just $4,400/$3,200 and is in play when stacking Yankees tonight, he remains above the magic number in the home run model at a 13.92. DJ LeMahieu is projected in the cleanup spot tonight, he is a $3,700 third baseman on DraftKings while pulling in eligibility at second, third, and first base on the blue site for just $2,700. In this case, FanDuel simply has not been paying attention to LeMahieu’s return to form, the price and the flexibility are fantastic for a player who is slashing .280/.353/.467 with a 130 WRC+ and a 56.6% hard-hit rate this year. LeMahieu has a .187 ISO that just recently dipped below the .200 line, he has hit two home runs and been a key piece of the puzzle for New York so far, after suffering two down seasons due to lingering injuries. Gleyber Torres has a 10.8% barrel rate on the right side of the plate this season, he has three home runs and five stolen bases and has created runs 40% better than average this season. The second baseman has All-Star caliber talent when he’s going right, he bounced back in a big way last season with 24 home runs and a .194 ISO with a 115 WRC+ over 572 plate appearances and is a great option for production in this spot at just $4,600/$2,900, Torres is the third of three players in the projected lineup with a premium home run mark, sitting at 10.68 in the home run model. And that’s where the good news ends with the projected Yankees lineup. If Kyle Higashioka gets the start, as always, we greatly prefer his bat to that of Jose Trevino, who sees more of the action overall as the better of the two excellent options behind the plate. Higashioka has by far more power than his counterpart and has been a caddy for Yankees starter Gerrit Cole in the past, so he could be in play. The backstop has a 25% barrel rate with a 55% hard-hit rate over his 36 plate appearances, hitting two home runs with a .171 ISO but slashing just .171/.194/.343 with a 44 WRC+ in the tiny sample, and he made excellent premium contact for most of last season. Oswald Peraza is a highly regarded prospect who has seen action in the infield, he costs just $2,600/$2,700 and is another three-position option at second, third, or shortstop on FanDuel, he drops the shortstop eligibility on DraftKings. Between the pricing and flexibility available on the blue site, this is a very interesting lineup for differentiating lineup combinations. Oswaldo Cabrera is a solid utility player who can fit into any position on the diamond, but he is probably miscast as a full-time starter. Cabrera is slashing .216/.244/.297 with a .081 ISO and a 44 WRC+. Isiah Kiner-Falefa is projected in the ninth spot in the lineup, he is not a very good offensive player, but if he gets on base he could contribute with speed. Kiner-Falefa hit four home runs while slashing .261/.314/.327 with a .066 ISO last year in 531 plate appearances that were entirely designed to sate the morons in the New York area tabloids who were demanding more slap-hitting singles specialists during the 21-22 offseason. Kiner-Falefa has outfield eligibility with shortstop on DraftKings and third base on FanDuel, he is a spare part who checks in for just $2,100 but is an unlikely contributor if he even plays.
The cheap Twins will be at home to face Zack Greinke tonight in what looks like a great spot for both run creation and power. Minnesota’s bats are still at a strong discount on both sites, they make for an excellent value play and combine well with several of the other premium teams, though they are likely to be very popular on a small slate with this matchup. For our younger readers, we promise that there was a time when Greinke was a good pitcher (MadBum too!), but those are long, long since passed. The righty got by on guile and mediocrity for the past few seasons, his fastball and changeup famously have no velocity differential. He had a 17.2% strikeout rate over 171 innings in 2021 and a 12.5% rate in 137 innings last season. Greinke pitched to a 4.54 xFIP under the surface of a 3.68 ERA last year, he had a 4.21 xFIP with a 4.16 ERA the year before and his premium contact profile has gotten worse as the amount of available contact has gone up. Last year, Greinke gave up a 39.6% hard-hit rate but held hitters to just a 2.39% home run rate on 88.9 mph of average exit velocity and a 6.8% barrel rate. The year before he was at similar exit velocities and barrel rates, but his mark for hard hits was better at 35.4%, though he yielded a 4.30% home run rate which is telling for how wonky the category can be in certain samples. This season, Greinke has made five starts and thrown 27.1 innings, pitching to a 16.5% strikeout rate and just a 3.5% walk rate, which has been his one consistently good lingering ability. The veteran’s xFIP is sitting at 4.18 with a 4.61 ERA, he has generated just an 8.4% swinging-strike rate with a 25.4% CSW%, but the contact and power have been a concern for a pitcher who gives up a lot of batted ball events. Greinke has allowed an 8.7% barrel rate with a 41.3% hard-hit rate and 90.8 mph of average exit velocity, all up significantly in the small but growing sample, and he has allowed a 4.35% home run rate for the year so far. After keeping long balls in check against these Twins and the Blue Jays in his first two outings, Greinke allowed two to the Rangers, one to the Braves, and another two to the Angels. In all honesty, it is actually somewhat impressive that the pitcher’s numbers are even this good with that stretch of opponents. The schedule has done him no favors, but if you tipped Greinke upside-down over a glass everything would come out in chunks, this is a pitcher well past his expiration date. Max Kepler slots in with a sturdy left-handed bat for just $3,600/$2,600 atop the projected Minnesota lineup. Kepler has a pair of home runs with a .184 ISO in his 54 plate appearances this season, he hit just nine in a down year last year but had 19 in 490 opportunities in 2021. Kepler has made good contact to start this season, he has a 10% barrel rate and a 42.5% hard-hit and he has always been very good at putting the ball in play and avoiding strikeouts, the lefty has a 7.61 in our home run model. Carlos Correa is too cheap at $4,600/$2,800, as has been noted several times recently, the FanDuel price is laughably low. Correa is slashing just .200/.270/.338 with a .138 ISO and a 71 WRC+ with two home runs, it would be foolish to argue that he has not struggled this season, but this is a well-established All-Star who is not actively injured. Correa created runs 40% better than average with 22 home runs while slashing .291/.366/.467 in 590 plate appearances last year. Unless he is hiding the future injury that other teams were worried about during free agency already this player will eventually hit. Correa is third on the team with a 7.71 in our home run model. Jorge Polanco has been relegated to just second base eligibility on both sites, he checks in for $4,200/$3,400 and has been excellent since coming back to action last week. Polanco is a star in the infield who has power and speed and has been a strong fantasy asset in seasons past. He slipped down the stretch last season while dealing with ongoing knee pain that eventually sidelined him in August and through Spring Training, but he is said to be 100% and is playing like it. Over his 22 plate appearances, he has a home run and is slashing .409/.409/.727 with a .318 ISO and has created runs 120% better than average, again remember the context is only 22 plate appearances, but this is a player who hit 33 home runs and stole 11 bases the last time he was fully healthy. Byron Buxton is the team’s superstar, when he is able to play, but he is not priced like it. $5,200 is a discount on this player on DraftKings, even though the price remains somewhat high overall. $2,900 on FanDuel is stupid. Buxton has hit four home runs while slashing .244/.308/.463 with a .220 ISO and a 114 WRC+ in his 91 plate appearances. He has a 13.2% barrel rate and a 43.4% hard-hit percentage, both of which are good but down from his outstanding 16.4% and 50.2% in a 382 plate appearances sample from last season. Buxton hit 28 home runs in that stretch, he easily has a 40-homer upside if he could ever see 600 plate appearances. This is a smash play at the FanDuel price and a very good one on the other side of town as well, Buxton can be deployed as a one-off and he is a major part of stacking Twins hitters in any configuration. Trevor Larnach is a flawed lefty power hitter with a good contact profile and reasonable MLB DFS appeal. Larnach costs just $3,400/$2,800, the fact that he is within $100 of Buxton and costs the same as Correa highlights the absurdity of where the stars are priced in this lineup. Larnach has hit three home runs with a .160 ISO and a 13.5% barrel rate, he has a 5.36 in our home run model however, as he has never truly put things together at the Major League level in a sustained way. Jose Miranda is a better hitter but he has not been great to start the season. Miranda is slashing .240/.304/.323 with a .083 ISO and an 81 WRC+ with a pair of home runs on the board, he is cheap as a correlation piece late in the lineup. Joey Gallo is the target from the bottom third of the Twins lineup, which should surprise no one who reads this column regularly. Gallo is one of our guys, “bring us your tired, your poor, your Joey Gallos, JD Davises, and Bobby Dalbecs…” The slugger has massive appeal for MLB DFS purposes on any given slate that he is not facing a dominant lefty strikeout artist. Gallo has hit seven home runs in just 49 plate appearances this year, he hit yet another one yesterday and now has a 33.3% barrel rate and a 77.8% hard-hit percentage with a thermonuclear .548 ISO while creating runs 116% better than average in the small sample. The slugger’s flaws are more widely known than his positive attributes, despite his 30% or higher strikeout rates, Gallo has one of the more discerning eyes in baseball and typically posts double-digit walk rates to go with his extreme power. Even in his struggles last season, Gallo maintained a premium contact profile that rivals the best power hitters in the game, including former teammates Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. He had a 17.6% barrel rate and a 50.6% hard-hit rate with 19 home runs despite striking out 39% of the time and slashing .160/.280/.357 with 40,000 tourist Yankees fans booing him every night. If we seem bitter about Gallo’s banishment from the Bronx, you know us well. All of this is to say that Gallo is another smash spot in this Twins lineup against this pitcher, he costs just $4,200/$3,400 despite the early excellence. Christian Vazquez has not hit for much power this season, he had nine home runs in 426 plate appearances last year and just six in 498 opportunities the year before, he is a mix-and-match piece along with Michael A. Taylor from the bottom of the lineup. Taylor has hit four home runs in his 82 plate appearances, he has a .184 ISO and a 14.3% barrel rate, but he has never consistently been that guy at the plate. The Twins are a terrific source of value and MLB DFS point-scoring upside on paper tonight, they will surely be popular around the industry but it is well warranted. Cue the Greinke CGSO.
