After a loaded day of MLB DFS with every team in action on Thursday, the baseball slate shrinks to just five games for Friday night’s action. With a mixed bag of pitching options, and some career-long home run issues for one of the premium arms on the table, there is fairly significant power potential available.
Main Slate
Tonight’s slate has an interesting spread of options, with strong individual home run potential from hitters on each of the 10 teams, but a few spots that are potentially stronger for stacking based on overall lineup quality and run creation potential, as well as matchup. The top team on the board for both the full lineup and the top six hitters is the Seattle Mariners. Seattle is an interesting case study with superstar Julio Rodriguez leading the way in the projected lineup. Rodriguez has massive potential for both home runs and stolen bases and should be an MLB DFS gem all season. He is followed in the lineup by two capable hitters who have both strong hit tools and mid-range power, namely Kolten Wong and Ty France, but the next group of hitters is where the true upside can be found. The four-hitter run that includes Teoscar Hernandez, Cal Raleigh, Eugenio Suarez, and Jarred Kelenic all come in above the “magic number” in our home run model and they are all inexpensive on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Kelenic is potentially the most interesting name, he costs just $2,700 on DraftKings and $2,600 on FanDuel and is unlikely to be popular. Kelenic was a highly regarded prospect who was rushed to the Show and struggled mightily in 2021 and 2022, but there is still tremendous upside and his contact profile is that of a player who should hit home runs at the Major League level. Kelenic is an interesting tournament piece across the industry tonight.
On the other side of the same game, the Guardians are also interesting for power upside. The lineup features several hitters who are excellent at getting on base and avoiding strikeouts, which could easily frustrate a pitcher like Mariners starter Robbie Ray. Ray has significant strikeout upside, but he also yields too many walks and too many home runs. In his 189-inning sample last season, Ray allowed a 4.13% home run rate, in his excellent 2021 season he threw 193.1 innings and yielded a 4.27% home run rate, despite his 32.1% strikeout rate. Ray could be in danger against a lineup that features Jose Ramirez, who hit 29 home runs in 2022 and 36 in 2021, as well as underrated MLB DFS options from top to bottom. Ramirez is joined by Amed Rosario, Josh Bell, Oscar Gonzalez, and Andres Gimenez as regular options with power upside. If he is in the lineup, catcher Mike Zunino is a potential sneaky tournament option on both DraftKings and FanDuel for home run upside. While he struggled through a limited 123 plate appearances last year, Zunino hit 33 home runs in just 375 plate appearances in 2021 with an even split between left and right-handed pitching.
