The 2023 MLB DFS season gets off to a rip-roaring start with a massive 11-game affair starting in the early afternoon and ending sometime after midnight on the east coast, pitch clocks be damned. As usual, Opening Day features a fairly predictable set of lineups and a slate that oozes with pitching talent. Very few days feature as many viable starters on the same slate during the season, but the depth to which any of the premium aces will be allowed to pitch is a key question on the first day of every season.

MLB DFS: Opening Day Breakdown – 3/30/23

San Francisco Giants (+160/3.04) @ New York Yankees (-174/4.03)

The visiting Giants were featured in the Power Index as a team that is flashing individual home run potential, while not showing much in terms of overall MLB DFS point-scoring potential. The Giants are limited to just a 3.04-run implied team total in their matchup against Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. While Cole had a few run-ins with the long ball last season, he was his typically excellent self overall. The righty pitched to a 2.78 xFIP with a 1.02 WHIP and a 32.4% strikeout rate in 2022. That quality was somewhat belied by the home run hubbub as well as his 3.50 earned run average. Cole remains one of the very best starters in the game, and the Giants will be hard-pressed to score against him. Joc Pederson was featured in the Power Index and Home Run Picks, he is the Giants’ best chance for offense, but the team features other viable options at very cheap prices across the industry. LaMonte Wade Jr. slashed just .207/.305/.359 over 251 plate appearances in 2022, but he was far better over his 381 opportunities the year before. Wade is projected to lead off with multi-position eligibility for $3,100 on DraftKings, he is a $2,200 first baseman on FanDuel. Former Mets outfielder Michael Conforto is making his long way back to the Show, he is expected to have a place in the heart of the order for San Francisco and he could be a name to watch through the season. In 2021, a healthy Conforto hit 14 home runs while creating runs six percent better than average over 479 plate appearances. $3,500/$2,500 outfielder Mike Yastrzemski has power potential from the left side of the plate and the potential to take advantage of Yankee Stadium’s infamous right field porch at any time. Yastrzemski had an 11.1% barrel rate and a 42.5% hard-hit rate in 2022. Where catchers are required, Joey Bart could be a very inexpensive unlikely source of pop, the backstop hit 11 home runs with a 10.1% barrel rate last year, he costs just $2,500 on DraftKings.

The loaded Yankees lineup could essentially be a featured option on every daily fantasy sports site in the industry every day this season. The team features last season’s home run king, Aaron Judge, who will be looking to match his Yankees record 62 home runs. Judge is an under-appreciated hitter across the board however, the giant outfielder slashed .311/.425/.686 last year with an eye-popping .375 ISO. Judge created runs 107% better than the average player last season, he is simply on another tier from virtually every other option when it comes to the bat. He also stole 16 bases last year. Joining the outfielder will be Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, and Gleyber Torres, all three of whom had double-digit barrel rates last year. Stanton led the trio by far with his 19.2% barrel rate and 52.1% hard-hit percentage. Only Judge’s over-the-top 26.2% barrel rate and 60.9% hard-hit could dwarf numbers like Stanton’s. Rizzo hit 32 home runs from the left side of the plate, posting a 10.9% barrel rate and creating runs 32% better than average, while Torres had a 10.7% barrel rate and reclaimed his power with 24 home runs. The Yankees lineup has a few moving parts with D.J. LeMahieu, Josh Donaldson, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Aaron Hicks all expected to play roles on various days, but their shortstop situation is settled after prized prospect Anthony Volpe seized the job during Spring Training. Volpe is a high-end player with premium speed and power as well as a very respectable hit tool, he will likely be popular right out of the gate, given the price and team involved, but he seems worth the investment.

Atlanta Braves (-256/5.02) @ Washington Nationals (+229/3.10)

Another team that was featured in the Power Index, the Braves have an excellent matchup against lefty Patrick Corbin. The southpaw has not had much to offer in recent years. In 2022, Corbin posted a 4.21 xFIP with a 1.70 WHIP and just an 18% strikeout rate with a 9.2% swinging-strike rate and 25.8% CSW%. When he is throwing strikes, Corbin allows far too much premium contact, he is a highly targetable pitcher and should be stacked against, but the Braves are very likely to be the most popular team on the slate. Superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. will be looking to reclaim his crown as one of the game’s very best. In 2022, coming off a brutal injury, Acuna posted a .266/.351/.413 triple-slash with just 15 home runs and 29 stolen bases. The perfectly serviceable season for most was a down year for the super-duper star, but he still has 40/40 potential and is a major MLB DFS asset. Acuna is followed by first base powerhouse Matt Olson, who obliterated 34 baseballs that never returned to play last season. Olson created runs 20% better than average and had a .237 ISO to go with his 13.6% barrel rate, he is an excellent source of home runs, as is his teammate on the opposite side of the diamond. Third baseman Austin Riley is one of the top plays at the hot corner on any slate. The righty thumper had a 15.7% barrel rate and a 50.8% hard-hit percentage while hitting 38 long balls in 2022, following up a 33-home run season in 2021. Riley is too cheap at just $4,600 on DraftKings and $3,600 on FanDuel. The Braves brought in catcher Sean Murphy in the offseason, he is an early favorite for a major power surge after finally breaking free of the Oakland Coliseum. Murphy had a 10.5% barrel rate and hit 18 home runs in 612 plate appearances last year. Marcell Ozuna and Michael Harris II were both featured in the Power Index, but other options including excellent second baseman Ozzie Albies are also lurking at the bottom of the Braves lineup, this team is viable from 1-9 against Corbin.

The Braves will start their season with the excellent Max Fried on the mound. Fried made 30 starts in 2022, posting a 23.2% strikeout rate with a 3.09 xFIP and just a 4.44% walk rate. He induced a 12% swinging-strike rate and yielded just a 1.64% home run rate on a mere 31.9% hard hits. As one of the premiere inducers of soft contact in Major League Baseball, Fried is better, perhaps, at keeping opponents off the scoreboard than he is at finding strikeouts, but there is upside for the starter against a team like the Nationals. Washington will be running out a lineup that is missing the stars of just a few seasons past. The Nationals are relatively inexpensive and seem unlikely to be popular on this slate, but individual bats including Joey Meneses and Jeimer Candelario could flash upside on any given slate. Meneses hit 13 home runs in just 240 plate appearances while slashing .324/.367/.563 last year, his ability to sustain that level of production was a popular Spring Training and fantasy draft season debate. Candelario hit 13 home runs of his own in 2022, albeit in 467 plate appearances, there are not many signs of life in his bat with just a 34% hard-hit rate. In a small 152 plate appearance sample, Dominic Smith hit no home runs but did manage a 46.5% hard-hit rate to go with his .194/.276/.284 triple-slash. There are not many good options on this team and they are facing a pitcher who is unlikely to allow much offense.

Baltimore Orioles (+108/4.40) @ Boston Red Sox (-117/4.69)

The Orioles are a team on the rise. Loaded with premium young talent on offense, the club simply has to wait on the arrival of a few arms while their bats finalize their development cycles and a few additional pieces arrive from the minors. The team is already stacked with talent and, despite the factors at play in their home park, packed with power. Baltimore’s lineup features leadoff man Cedric Mullins II who hits from both sides of the plate and managed 16 home runs and 34 stolen bases in 2022, a season after posting a 30/30. Mullins is followed ably by catcher Adley Rutschman, outfielder Anthony Santander, and rookie Gunnar Henderson. Henderson is a premium prospect on the left side of the infield, he has eligibility at both shortstop and third base for just $4,000 on DraftKings and $3,300 on FanDuel. Henderson hit four home runs and stole a base in his 132 plate appearances in a cup of coffee last season, he is expected to produce immediately, and with positive indicators like a 53.7% hard-hit rate and a 12.1% walk rate in the small Major League sample, there is a lot to like. First baseman Ryan Mountcastle made contact that rivals the very best power hitters in baseball throughout last season, he was partially impacted by the changed dimensions in Baltimore and partly unlucky in posting “only” 22 home runs and a 106 WRC+. Mountcastle has far more to give, he is one of this space’s favorite candidates for a major breakout year. The bottom of the Orioles lineup includes Austin Hays, Kyle Stowers, and Jorge Mateo, who always makes for an intriguing cheap wraparound option, given his blazing speed. Mateo stole 35 bases despite just a .267 on-base percentage in 2022, he costs $3,600 on DraftKings and just $2,500 on FanDuel. The Orioles will be facing veteran righty Corey Kluber, who is still a talented pitcher despite diminished stuff. Kluber posted a 3.92 xFIP with a 1.21 WHIP and a 20.2% strikeout rate last year, but he was very good at inducing soft contact, with just a 34.7% hard-hit rate allowed, and he walked only 3.0% of hitters. It is not easy to stack up runs against Kluber, but the Orioles seem like a team that will find ways to score this season.

A team in turmoil describes the Boston Red Sox fairly well. While we will surely find another time to quibble with the Red Sox’ decision to demote column favorite Bobby Dalbec, interesting options remain in the Red Sox lineup, despite their ongoing talent purge. The jewel of the lineup is and will be third baseman Rafael Devers. The lefty posted a fantastic .295/.358/.521 with a .225 ISO while creating runs 40% better than average last season. Devers hit 27 home runs on the back of a 50.9% hard-hit rate, he has titanic upside on any slate, but he is very expensive at $5,900 on DraftKings. The third baseman is far more affordable at just $3,900 on the blue site. Devers is joined in the lineup by leadoff man Alex Verdugo, who features a solid hit tool but very little power and limited on-base acumen to this point. Veteran Justin Turner and NPB veteran Masataka Yoshida will be in the middle of the lineup, as well as experienced righty power bat Adam Duvall. The slugger managed just 12 home runs in 315 opportunities last season, struggling to just a .213/.276/.401 triple-slash and a 32.1% strikeout rate, but he will get another shot in 2023. Rookie Triston Casas brings an excellent power bat that displaced Dalbec, the left-handed first baseman is just $2,900 on DraftKings and $2,700 on FanDuel, he seems like a somewhat sneaky option for MLB DFS upside on Opening Day. The Red Sox are facing Orioles righty Kyle Gibson, who struck out just 20.1% of hitters last year while pitching to a 3.94 xFIP and a 6.7% walk rate. Gibson had a 1.34 WHIP and allowed a 3.34% home run rate, he is a pitcher who can be attacked with premium bats, but the Red Sox may slip past the field’s notice to a degree, given the high pricing.

Milwaukee Brewers (-137/4.08) @ Chicago Cubs (+126/3.51)

The Brewers seem like they should be favored by slightly more with ace Corbin Burnes on the mound. Burnes was excellent again in 2022, posting a 2.85 xFIP with a 2.94 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP across his 202 innings in 33 starts. The righty had a tremendous 30.5% strikeout rate, built on the back of a 15.1% swinging-strike rate and a 32.1% CSW%. Milwaukee’s top starter is excellent at everything, he yielded just a 5.7% barrel rate and a 34.1% hard-hit percentage last year, while giving up only a 2.89% home run rate. Burnes is one of the top starters in all of baseball, he seems like a bargain for just $8,800 on the DraftKings slate, while FanDuel has him priced correctly at his $11,000 salary. Burnes projects on the second tier of starters, for his FanDuel salary there are potentially better options, including Cole, Fried, and others, but rostering Burnes is rarely a mistake. He will be taking on a remade Cubs lineup that includes light-hitting infielder Nico Hoerner, former Braves shortstop Dansby Swanson, who has long been an underrated favorite in this space, and Ian Happ. Swanson posted a 10.8% barrel rate and a 46.1% hard-hit percentage with 25 home runs and 18 stolen bases last year, with similar power the year before, he is a top shortstop who gets no love from the MLB DFS community. Happ was a disappointment with just 17 home runs in 641 tries, but he has upside for more as evidenced by the 25 long balls he hit in 2021. The trio will be joined in the middle by Cody Bellinger, the former National League MVP who has completely fallen off the table, Trey Mancini, who has stumbled to just a .239/.319/.391 triple-slash, and Eric Hosmer. On the back end Patrick Wisdom can provide infrequent flashes of power, he hit 25 home runs in 534 plate appearances last year while striking out 34.3% of the time.

Corbin Burnes will be backed up by a capable Brewers lineup in a matchup against veteran righty Marcus Stroman. Stroman has long been a pitcher who has more real-life upside than he displays for MLB DFS purposes, but he is capable of shutting a team down and limiting their scoring. Stroman had a 20.9% strikeout rate with a 6.3% walk rate and a strong 3.49 xFIP last season, and he does not allow an irregular amount of home runs. The Brewers lineup should feature veteran Christian Yelich, who needs to remember how to elevate the ball to return himself to star status. Yelich had a 48.1% hard-hit rate last season but managed just 14 home runs and 19 stolen bases in his 671 plate appearances. The lefty created runs 11% better than average and costs just $3,400 on FanDuel, he is a $4,800 option on DraftKings, where he trails Willy Adames, who leads the team at $5,100 on the site. Adames has significant power upside, he is one of four Brewers who had a double-digit barrel rate last season and he hit 31 home runs in 617 tries. The righty infielder is followed by Rowdy Tellez and William Contreras, two other members of that double-digit club, while Jesse Winker was imported on the cheap from Seattle. Winker will look to rediscover the power he showed in Cincinnati, he has a strong ability to draw walks and limit strikeouts, and any improvement in his quality of contact could lead to big things, Winker is a potential early-season sleeper at just $2,800 on FanDuel and $3,100 on DraftKings.

Detroit Tigers (+209/2.80) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-232/4.30)

With southpaw Shane McClanahan on the bump, the Detroit Tigers do not seem to offer significant upside on this slate. McClanahan projects as one of the top overall pitchers in this matchup and he seems likely to hold down the Tigers, while finding a fair share of strikeouts before handing off to the equally excellent Rays bullpen. For his part, McClanahan had a 30.3% strikeout rate with a 2.60 xFIP and a 0.93 WHIP in 2022. He induced a 15.5% swinging-strike rate with a 32.8% CSW% last year and allowed just a 32.5% hard-hit rate. McClanahan is a premium option at the top of the pitching board today, Tigers stacks are a very contrarian approach that is likely to be far too cute. Targetable Tigers include Javier Baez, Eric Haase, and Spencer Torkelson, preferably as a mini-stack.

The Rays are in an interesting situation. The notoriously overachieving squad looks primed to continue that legacy this year, bringing back the same odd mix of power, on-base skills, and run creation that has been successful over the years in Tampa Bay. They will be facing lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, who is coming off a mostly lost 2022 season that saw him make just 17 starts and throw 91 innings. Rodriguez posted a 4.41 xFIP and a 1.33 WHIP in those innings, and his 18.4% strikeout rate left much to be desired, but he is far more talented than that. The southpaw had a 27.4% strikeout rate over 157.2 unlucky innings the season before, posting a 3.43 xFIP to his 4.74 ERA. Rodriguez and bad luck collide far too frequently, but he is inarguably talented. He will be facing a heavily right-handed version of the Rays lineup, one that will likely feature Yandy Diaz in the leadoff role. Diaz slashed .296/.401/.423 while creating runs 46% better than average over 558 plate appearances last season. If you didn’t know that already, you probably didn’t take him in the last round of all 30 of your season-long drafts as some people might have. Diaz will be followed by star shortstop Wander Franco, who will be looking to make a full season’s worth of plate appearances for the first time. Franco is highly capable when he is on the field, he hit six home runs and stole eight bases in his limited opportunities last year. Five-tool outfielder Randy Arozarena brings explosive upside with his 20 home runs and 32 stolen bases that he posted in 2022, a year after a 20/20. Arozarena is underpriced at $3,800 on FanDuel but he is expensive at $5,100 on DraftKings, making him a potentially compelling one-off option against this pitcher. Lefty masher Brandon Lowe should come roaring back this year, particularly where OPS is more of a concern than batting average, but he may not face a same-handed starter to begin the season. Righty Harold Ramirez is a reliable contact bat who can drive the ball in the yard, while Isaac Paredes provides a strong home run upside from late in the lineup. Paredes hit 20 home runs in 381 plate appearances last year, though his contact metrics leave something to be desired. If he manages a better contact profile, there is major potential for power in Paredes.

Philadelphia Phillies (+121/3.08) @ Texas Rangers (-132/3.50)

The premium pitching matchup on a day packed with premium pitching matchups should be a fun one to watch. The Philadelphia Phillies hitters and starter Aaron Nola must be feeling like a camper at Crystal Lake seeing Jason Voorhees returning for blood yet again, with former division rival Jacob deGrom opening the season on the hill for their interleague opponents, the Texas Rangers. deGrom made just 11 starts last year, throwing 64.1 innings during which he struck out an alien 42.7% of opposing hitters while walking a hilariously small 3.3%. deGrom posted a 1.54 xFIP and a 0.75 WHIP, he is the very best pitcher in baseball when he is healthy. The Phillies lost Rhys Hoskins for the season just last week, and they are without Bryce Harper until May, but they still bring a loaded lineup that can even get to a starter like deGrom. Trea Turner was electric for team USA in the World Baseball Classic, he leads the way at $6,100 on DraftKings and $4,000 on FanDuel, while slugger Kyle Schwarber has the team’s only double-digit mark in the home run model for today. Turner and Schwarber can stack with catcher JT Realmuto where his position is required and where it is not, the latter potentially making him a sneaky-good option on the blue site. Darick Hall will fill in for Hoskins to start the year, Hall hit nine home runs in 142 plate appearances last season, and he has interesting power potential. The Phillies feature Nick Castellanos, Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, and Brandon Marsh at the end of the lineup as well, all of whom are compelling hitters in the right situation. Unfortunately, tonight is extremely unlikely to be the right situation, given their opponent.

Nola and the Phillies ran into the deGrom buzzsaw plenty of times when he was just up I-95, now they have to face him to start their season, but Nola will give as good as he gets, the righty is an excellent option against the Rangers. Nola posted a 2.77 xFIP and a 0.96 WHIP with a 29.1% strikeout rate last season, allowing just 2.35% home runs and a 31.6% hard-hit rate. The righty is excellent and he should limit a Rangers lineup that includes some of the best infield bats in the game. Marcus Semien and Corey Seager posted a near-record number of home runs for an infield tandem, with 26 and 33 respectively in 2022. The duo will be back atop the Rangers lineup this season and they are primed to mash. They will be joined by Nate Lowe and Adolis Garcia, both of whom hit 27 home runs of their own last year, making a formidable foursome. Josh Jung struggled through most of his time in the show last year, slashing just .204/.235/.418 with a terrible 38.2% strikeout rate, but he has the pedigree and track record in the minors to justify faith, particularly at just a $2,800/$2,600 price point. Lefty Brad Miller costs $2,600 on DraftKings, but he is a minimum-priced $2,000 with eligibility at third base and in the outfield on the blue site. Miller had a 39.9% hard-hit rate with seven home runs in 241 plate appearances in 2022, he hit 20 home runs in 377 tries in 2021. There are worse options in a vacuum, but Aaron Nola isn’t pitching in that vacuum.

Minnesota Twins (-150/5.0) @ Kansas City Royals (+138/4.10)

With ancient Zack Greinke on the mound for the Royals, the Twins look like one of the better options for offense today. That fact is shining through in their aggressive 5.0 implied team total, but the Twins should be very popular across the MLB DFS industry, given their easily affordable pricing. Minnesota’s projected lineup opens with slugger Joey Gallo, who is still worth your faith from a power perspective. Gallo has too long a track record of making some of the very best contact in baseball when he can connect – that when is critical of course – even last season during which he struggled mightily. Despite his .160/.280/.357 triple-slash, Gallo hit 19 home runs in just 410 plate appearances. He did that due largely to a titanic 17.6% barrel rate and 50.5% hard-hit percentage, numbers that rival former teammates Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge. Those two just make contact far more often. Gallo is an interesting play at the top of the lineup, he costs just $3,100 on DraftKings and $2,400 on FanDuel and has major upside, but he may also get on and involved via the free pass. Or he might strike out five times and retire from the game forever. There’s a lot on the table with Joey. Gallo is joined by Carlos Correa, who tried very hard to leave Minnesota during the offseason, as well as frequently injured star Byron Buxton. The outfielder is another Twins bat with major contact potential. Buxton had a 16.4% barrel rate and a 50.2% hard-hit percentage in 2022, blasting 28 home runs in just 382 plate appearances. Lefty power hitter Max Kepler fell off the map last year with just nine home runs and an anemic contact profile, while the bottom of the lineup struggles for quality after Trevor Larnach, and arguably before him.

The Royals draw righty Pablo Lopez in his first start of the year with Minnesota. The former Marlins starter posted a 23.6% strikeout rate over 180 innings in his 32 starts while being entirely overshadowed by his Cy Young Award-winning teammate. Lopez was good last year. The righty had a 3.56 xFIP with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP, and he induced a 12.7% swinging-strike rate while limiting hitters to just a 35.1% hard-hit percentage. Lopez can keep the ball in the yard effectively, he yielded just a 2.85% home run rate last year and a 2.63% mark the season before. The Royals have a fair amount of power potential in their lineup, but there are also strikeouts lurking, making Lopez an intriguing under-the-radar option on both sites. For just $7,500 on DraftKings, he makes a potentially viable SP2 to pair with one of the premium aces. Kansas City will counter with a lineup including MJ Melendez, who slashed .217/.313/.393 with a .176 ISO while creating runs one percent worse than average last year, but has solid power and slots into the catcher position on DraftKings. Bobby Witt Jr. fits the shortstop and third base spots on the blue site, but he is only a shortstop, and an expensive one, on DraftKings. Witt hit 20 home runs and stole 30 bases in 2022, he has upside for more and there is a good reason he was drafted in the first two rounds of every season-long draft this year. If he is not popular, Witt is an excellent option for a one-off shortstop, while the Royals are a playable stack as well. Vinnie Pasquantino and Sal Perez add punch to the heart of the order. Perez in particular brings a lot of thump for a backstop, he hit 23 home runs last year but a positional record of 48 the season before. At just $2,800 on DraftKings and $2,300 on FanDuel, Michael Massey fills out the Royals lineup interestingly when stacking. Massey made 194 plate appearances in 2022, slashing .243/.307/.376 with four home runs, but he managed a strong 13% barrel rate in that sample, suggesting there is power potential available in the left-handed second baseman.

Toronto Blue Jays (-111/3.86) @ St. Louis Cardinals (+103/3.72)

One of the most fun power-hitting teams in baseball made significant changes to their home park that will add even more pop, but we’ll discuss that when the Blue Jays return to Toronto. For now, the excellent young lineup finds itself in St. Louis for a matchup against middling starter Miles Mikolas. The righty threw 202.1 effective innings last season, posting a 3.80 xFIP with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. He allowed just a 6.9% barrel rate and a 35.7% hard-hit rate while mostly keeping home runs in check at just 3.11%. Mikolas does not induce swinging strikes, he had just an 8.2% rate last year and he struck out only 19% of opposing hitters. The contact-oriented righty finds his way by limiting walks and opportunities while inducing soft contact, but he can be exploited by teams that hit as well as Toronto. The Blue Jays lineup starts with power-hitting outfielder George Springer who hit 25 home runs in 2022 while creating runs 32% better than average. Springer is priced fairly, but affordably for his talents. The righty begins an excellent run on that side of the plate, with Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. following him in the two and three spots. The shortstop, Bichette, posted a .290/.333/.469 triple slash with 24 home runs and 13 stolen bases, while Guerrero displayed awesome power with 32 home runs and a 50.4% hard-hit rate. Guerrero created runs 32% better than average last season, down from the 66% ahead of the curve that he posted in 2021. Newcomer Daulton Varsho brings a dynamic bat and some potential speed to the left side of the plate. Varsho hit 27 home runs and stole 16 bases, but he does not feature catcher eligibility at this point on either site. Alejandro Kirk does don the tools of ignorance for this team, however, providing one of the top catcher options in baseball. Kirk slashed .285/.372/.415 with 14 home runs over 541 plate appearances last year, creating runs 29% better than average. The Blue Jays also added veteran lefty Brandon Belt and they still have right-handed third baseman Matt Chapman at the bottom of the lineup. Chapman hit a quiet 27 home runs last season, though his .229/.324/.433 was less than ideal he still created runs 17% better than average. With Whit Merrifield and Kevin Kiermaier potentially rounding out the lineup, the Blue Jays are playable from top to bottom.

Meanwhile, an outstanding Cardinals lineup has a taller order against Alek Manoah, but it is one that they can fill. Manoah pitched to a 3.98 xFIP last year, masked with a stellar 2.24 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. Manoah struck out just 22.9% of hitters, which was down significantly from the 27.7% he put up in 2021, another season in which his ERA was about a run lower than his xFIP. Manoah is talented at keeping the ball in the park, he allowed just a 2.04% home run rate and a 31.5% hard-hit percentage last season. Even if he loses this game to St. Louis, it seems unlikely that the Cardinals are going to beat him with power and home runs, yet the always under-owned team is a reasonable target. Brendan Donovan should provide inexpensive flexibility atop the lineup, while everyone’s favorite breakout candidate Lars Nootbaar has some pop ahead of superstars Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, who combined to hit 130 home runs from the corners for the Cardinals over the past two seasons. That duo can be stacked in any situation, they combine well with the hitters above them as well as catcher Willson Contreras and outfielder Tyler O’Neill, the latter of whom may be primed for a big season of home runs and stolen bases. In a down year of just 383 weak plate appearances last year, O’Neill still managed 14 home runs and 14 stolen bases. Nolan Gorman is the forgotten power prospect that should draw sharp DFS eyes at his industrywide pricing, while Jordan Walker is the name with more buzz. Tommy Edman is one of the top wraparound plays in baseball when he hits out of the nine spot. The infielder stole 32 bases and hit 13 home runs on his way to creating runs eight percent better than average last year.

Pittsburgh Pirates (+122/4.02) @ Cincinnati Reds (-132/4.58)

The Pirates saw some coverage, surprisingly, in the Power Index, given their matchup against Hunter Greene, who yields far too many long balls. Greene is a talented young starter who may strike out a dozen or more Pirates, but he is equally likely to allow some power today. Pittsburgh’s weak lineup includes the players featured in the Power Index (Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, and Carlos Santana), as well as Ke’Bryan Hayes, who disappointed fans with just a .244/.314/.345 line and seven home runs in 560 plate appearances last year. Hayes has remaining upside, he did manage a 46.8% hard-hit rate, but he needs to elevate the ball more to succeed. The lineup also features power-hitting Jack Suwinski and infielder Rodolfo Castro, who hit 11 home runs and created runs two percent better than average in 278 opportunities last year.

The Reds draw Mitch “Opening Day Buzz” Keller who will no doubt disappoint those with any shred of faith or expectation for him, as he has so many times before. Keller has electric stuff, top-of-the-rotation stuff, but he has been entirely unable to harness it throughout his big-league career. In 29 starts last year, Keller threw 159 innings, striking out just 20.1% of opposing hitters while walking 8.7% and inducing just an 8.7% swinging-strike rate with a 25.8% CSW%. Keller had a 3.99 xFIP and a 3.91 ERA, he did not allow many home runs, but he gave up far too many chances with his 1.40 WHIP. While his “any given slate” talent remains, Keller is a tough ask, though he is the most viable of the bargain basement starters. The Reds diminished lineup looks to feature second baseman Jonathan India, who has a solid blend of power and speed when he’s going right. India hit 21 home runs and stole 12 bases in 2021, but dropped to a 10/3 season in 431 plate appearances last year. Outfielder Jake Fraley and Wil Myers are intriguing names for upside, Fraley hit 12 home runs in 247 plate appearances last year, while Myers had seven in his 286 tries. Myers hit 17 home runs and stole eight bases in 500 tries in 2021, and he has flashed potential for years. A move to Cincinnati’s bandbox could be a strong fit for the now 32-year-old. Catcher Tyler Stephenson is another backstop with enough talent to play outside the requirement of the position, while the rest of the Reds lineup falls off quickly around bats like Kevin Newman and Spencer Steer.

New York Mets (-123/3.44) @ Miami Marlins (+113/3.14)

The Mets don’t quite cost a billion dollars in payroll, yet, but doesn’t it feel like they should? Just let them keep trying. Let them field 14 players while everyone else gets just nine. Let them pile cash on the mound like the Joker in The Dark Knight, whatever the $300-million club tries just tends not to work out. One of the premium assets the team has purchased is ace Max Scherzer, who made 23 starts last year and pitched to a 3.23 xFIP with a 30.6% strikeout rate. Scherzer costs $10,700 on FanDuel and $9,400 on DraftKings, he is worth every penny, particularly in a matchup against the Marlins. Miami does not bring much to the table and the Mets ace should dominate the matchup. On offense, the Mets will be facing Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, who led all of baseball by throwing 228.2 innings in his 32 starts last season. The throwback starter held hitters to just a 0.98 WHIP but he does not stand out to the level of a Scherzer in terms of strikeout acumen. Alcantara induced a 12.2% swinging-strike rate but struck out just 23.4% of hitters, he gets by largely on depth and limiting power. With a pair of aces on the mound, it is difficult to recommend either side of this game for stacking purposes. The top of the Mets lineup does project for a fair shot against Alcantara, due to his lack of extreme strikeout upside, but they are not flashing much in terms of home run potential, with no one above the 8.25 carried by Pete Alonso. Additional Mets to consider for stacks include Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and Starling Marte. Lefty Dan Vogelbach could be sneaky for power from late in the batting order. Only Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jorge Soler are reasonably good options for power upside from Miami, while Luis Arraez can stack with them in a three-man to provide run creation upside. Arraez slashed .316/.375/.420 while creating runs 31% better than average last season. However, the upside is very thin against Scherzer.

Colorado Rockies (+188/3.10) @ San Diego Padres (-207/4.49)

The final game of the evening moved from a 4pm ET start until after 9pm, and will now finish as one of the last games of the night, extending the slate in an extreme fashion. The Rockies will be facing lefty Blake Snell, who struck out 32% of opposing hitters but walked 9.2% last season. Snell had a 1.20 WHIP with a 3.21 xFIP, he is difficult to hit but he yields too many free passes and creates opportunities, and he suffers from an inability to pitch deep into games. Snell’s MLB DFS upside on the mound is somewhat limited, but the matchup is excellent with the Rockies on the road. Colorado does not travel well, this is a team to target for bats when they are at home in Coors Field, but there is not much upside in San Diego. Targetable bats include Kris Bryant, who had an injury-plagued 2022, managing just 181 plate appearances during which he hit .306/.376/.475 with five home runs. Outfielder Charlie Blackmon has a minimal amount of DFS juice in the tank, while first baseman CJ Cron should be capable of more regular power. The Rockies have young names on their roster that will be interesting in home games, and could be sneaky on the road if things break well. These players include Elehuris Montero and Ezequiel Tovar.

The big-market Padres have a talented lineup, even without Fernando Tatis Jr. The team brought in former Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who brings excellence to the position and to the top of the lineup. Bogaerts slashed .307/.377/.456 over 631 plate appearances last season while creating runs 34% better than average. He should be hitting in front of superstar Juan Soto, who is set for a big bounceback season after slumping to .242/.401/.452 last year. Soto still managed 27 home runs and created runs 45% better than average, mashing baseballs with a 12.4% barrel rate. The duo will be followed by star third baseman Manny Machado, who hit 32 home runs last year in yet another quietly outstanding season. Machado also scored 100 runs and drove in 102, ultimately creating runs 52% better than average by WRC+, he is a top option at third base on any slate. Infielder Jake Cronenworth should have more to give than the unlikely Matt Carpenter, who came back from the dead for a few weeks last season. The bottom of the lineup rounds out with speedy and talented Ha-Seong Kim as well as Trent Grisham, who is not entirely bereft of upside at just $2,500 on DraftKings and $2,600 on FanDuel. Grisham hit 17 home runs but slashed just .184/.284/.341 last season.