MLB DFS: DraftKings & FanDuel Slate Notes – Wednesday Main Slate 4/10/24

The huge Tuesday main slate features 11 games with a ton of good pitching options and several premium spots for stacking, including more action at Coors Field and the Dodgers and Braves in gettable situations. With a huge slate to get through we are skipping right to it and presenting details in hurry-up mode. Catch the show on YouTube starting sometime between 3:00 and 4:00 ET for more.

Don’t miss our Hitter Projections, including custom Home Run ratings for each player, and Pitcher Projections for more on the top opportunities today.

Note: All analysis is written utilizing available projected lineups as of the early morning, pay close attention to confirmed lineups and adjust accordingly. This article is posted and updated as it is written, so if a game has not been filled in, check back in a few minutes. Update notes are provided as lineups are confirmed to the best of our ability. Still, lineup changes are not typically updated as lock approaches, so stay tuned to official news for any late changes.

MLB DFS: Game by Game Main Slate Notes – 4/10/24

Milwaukee Brewers (+119/4.05) @ Cincinnati Reds (-129/4.55)

  • This game has a medium threat of weather issues
  • Right-handed strikeout artist Hunter Greene takes the mound in his hitter-friendly home park to face the Brewers tonight. After two starts, Greene has a 2.53 ERA with a 4.32 xFIP and a 28.3% strikeout rate. Greene has continued to walk too many hitters but he manages to get through trouble with an excellent 13.6% swinging-strike rate and he has been very good at limiting premium contact over the tiny sample. Last season, Greene worked to a 4.82 ERA and 4.01 xFIP with a 30.5% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate over 112.0 innings in 22 starts, he is a high-end pitcher facing a Brewers team that has a collective 22.1% strikeout rate to start the season. Despite the ballpark challenges and some walks, Greene is among the top few starters on a short pitching slate at $9,700/$9,300.
  • The projected Brewers lineup opens with Oliver Dunn priced at $2,600/$3,400 after a few days as a min-price value. Dunn has a home run and a pair of stolen bases in his 35 plate appearances and fits in at second base on FanDuel and third on DraftKings. William Contreras is a leading option at catcher on this slate, he is slashing .375/.435/.625 with two home runs and a 183 WRC+ over his first 46 chances this season. Christian Yelich has four home runs and two steals in early returns, he has never been close to as diminished as rumors might suggest, a monster season could be in store for the former MVP. Yelich is affordable at $5,200 on DraftKings and costs $3,800 on the blue site. Willy Adames has power at shortstop, he has hit two home runs and stolen a base and should benefit from the ballpark but could feed strikeouts in Greene’s direction. Sal Frelick has a .410 on-base percentage and two stolen bases with a 120 WRC+ early in the season, Rhys Hoskins has hit two home runs and has an 11.11 to lead the team in the home run model today, and rookie Jackson Chourio is off to a .278/.316/.472 start with two home runs and a stolen base in his first 38 plate appearances. Brice Turang and Joey Ortiz round out the lineup with capable bats, Turang in particular is off to a strong start to his season.
  • Lefty Wade Miley checks in for his first start of the 2024 campaign. Miley worked 120.1 innings in 23 starts last season, posting a 3.14 ERA and a 4.85 xFIP with a 16.1% strikeout rate. The southpaw allowed a 3.27% home run rate but just 31.1% hard hits and 87.3 mph of exit velocity, amounting to a 3.27% home run rate. The season before, Miley yielded a 1.89% home run rate with 35.7% hard hits and a 5.2% barrel rate, he has been good at keeping the ball in the yard and working clean innings in defiance of expected run numbers, but he lacks the strikeout potential to be a true DFS value at $7,700/$7,200. While he could certainly yield runs, Miley is more likely to frustrate those who roster Reds stacks than he is to get blown up for power tonight.
  • The Reds have three solid right-handed bats to open the projected lineup with Jonathan IndiaSpencer Steer, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand in their typical spots. India has a 110 WRC+ with two stolen bases in the books and a .404 on-base percentage, Steer is slashing .400/.489/.775 with three home runs and two steals amounting to a 229 WRC+ to lead the team, and Encarnacion-Strand has scuffled his way to just a six WRC+ with one home run and a weak triple-slash. The first baseman has premium power at the plate and should get things going soon he is cheap for the ceiling at $2,800/$4,100. Jeimer Candelario hits from both sides fo the plate, he is also cheap at $2,800/$4,200 at third base on the back of a similarly weak start. Stuart Fairchild has four stolen bases after just 23 plate appearances. Elly De La Cruz is a star in the making for $3,700/$5,600, he has two home runs including an amazing inside-the-parker, and has stolen six bases already this season. De La Cruz still sports a 37.8% strikeout rate for the season but his ceiling is far larger than the basement. Santiago EspinalLuke Maile, and Bubba Thompson round out the projected batting order in fairly weak form, the prime targets for MLB DFS stacking are from 1-6

Play: Hunter Greene, stacks are OK on either side

Chicago Cubs (+138/3.65) @ San Diego Padres (-150/4.45)

  • This is an afternoon game in San Diego, starting at 6:40 ET/3:40 PST
  • Righty Dylan Cease is making his third start for the Padres, he has been sharp over the season’s first two outings. Cease has a 30.2% strikeout rate with a 3.37 ERA, a 3.88 xFIP, and a sparkling 0.94 WHIP despite his 9.3% walk rate. The righty is a high-end starter with excellent strikeout stuff, he had a 27.3% strikeout rate and 13.6% swinging-strike rate over 177.0 innings and 33 starts last year and worked to a 30.4% strikeout rate on 15% swinging-strikes over 184.0 innings in 32 starts in 2022. Cease costs just $9,300 on the FanDuel slate where he is a strong buy against a good Cubs lineup. At $10,200 the righty is expensive but he carries the top pitcher projection on both sites and seems within reach given several other value options.
  • The visiting Cubs do everything well. The team has a knack for getting on base and they hit for power and steal bases, though they have not run as much to start 2024. Chicago’s projected lineup has a nine-man average on-base percentage of .378 to start the season and they have been mostly excellent in creating runs. Ian Happ is affordable at $4,500 on DraftKings, he is a $3,500 outfielder on FanDuel where most of the Cubs hitters are more expensive. Happ has a 145 WRC+ over 53 plate appearances while getting on at a .434 clip to start the year. Seiya Suzuki has a 6.41 in the home run model, second on the team behind cleanup hitter Christopher Morel at 7.23. Suzuki has two home runs and a .209 ISO over 52 plate appearances. Cody Bellinger has two home runs but just a 77 WRC+ and .314 on-base percentage over 51 chances, his strikeout rate sits at 19.6%, somewhat higher than last year’s 15.6% mark but not an alarming number to this point. Bellinger should get things going soon and he is affordable at $3,300/$5,000. Morel fits into three positions for $3,400 on FanDuel and is a $4,300 third baseman across town, he has three home runs and a .279 ISO early in the season. Dansby Swanson has a 141 WRC+ with two home runs and a stolen base, he is a premium shortstop for a discounted price on DraftKings and costs $3,600 on FanDuel. Michael BuschNico HoernerMike Tauchman, and Miguel Amaya are playable bolt-on parts for full Cubs stacks. Busch has power, Hoerner steals bases but is off to a bad start, Tauchman is good at getting on base and providing correlated scoring potential, and Amaya is a cheap catcher with a bit of talent at the plate.
  • The Padres draw righty Kyle Hendricks who has a 14.0% strikeout rate with an 11.74 ERA and 5.04 xFIP over two starts and 7.2 innings. The veteran soft-tosser worked 3.2 innings at Texas in his first start, giving up five earned runs on two home runs and nine hits while striking out two and walking two. He lasted 4.0 innings against the Dodgers in a home start, facing 22 hitters, striking out four while walking two, and allowing another five earned runs on a home run and eight hits. Hendricks had a 16.1% strikeout rate with a 3.74 ERA and 4.42 xFIP but gave up just a 2.25% home run rate on 31.3% hard hits and 6.2% barrels last year, if he has slipped for allowing power this season it could be a very long year. Hendricks is an uninspiring choice at $5,900/$6,200 in the pitcher-friendly park
  • The Padres have several very good options in the lineup and more depth than in previous seasons. Xander Bogaerts has a 6.96 in the home run model today, he has one long ball and one stolen base but is out to just an 83 WRC+ over 60 plate appearances. Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit four home runs and swiped two bags while striking out at just a 13.8% clip to go with the 11.7% mark set by Bogaerts, the pair is an excellent way to start a stack against a contact-oriented pitcher like Hendricks. Jake Cronenworth has a 128 WRC+ with a .288/.356/.462 triple-slash over 60 plate appearances, Manny Machado has hit two home runs but his triple-slash has not gotten engaged in the season, and Jurickson Profar has surprised by leading the team with a 143 WRC+ over his first 50 plate appearances. Ha-Seong KimLuis CampusanoJackson Merrill, and Tyler Wade round out the lineup with playable options. Kim had a terrific 2023 season with 17 homers and 38 stolen bases but has had a tough opening two weeks lowering his pricing to $3,100 (with triple-position eligibility) and $4,000 as a DraftKings shortstop. Kim is too talented to struggle for long, making him a good bargain on this slate. Campusano is slashing .326/.341/.465 with a 125 WRC+ over 44 plate appearances, he has had a good start to the season and comes cheap where catchers are mandatory. Merrill has a 124 WRC+ and is doing everything well over the first 45 plate appearances of his career, and Wade is very cheap in the infield, he has triple-position eligibility for the minimum on FanDuel.

Play: Padres bats/stacks, Dylan Cease, Cubs bats/stacks are OK on talent but the spot is not great

Miami Marlins (+193/3.49) @ New York Yankees (-212/5.12)

  • There is rain in the area but the risk to this game is low
  • Marcus Stroman has yet to give up a run in his Yankees career. The righty has worked 12.0 innings over his two starts, striking out 20.8% and walking 6.3% while pitching to a 3.70 xFIP and inducing an 8.5% swinging-strike rate. Stroman is good at keeping the ball in the yard and he can spike big strikeout performances from time to time, the Marlins are an ideal opponent for him but he is extremely expensive for his general upside at $10,100/$9,600. In truth, Stroman lacks the strikeout potential to justify those costs on most slates, but he has an excellent shot at the bonuses on both sites and is one of the leading pitchers tonight.
  • The Marlins have a collective 4.05 in our home run model with only Josh BellJake Burger, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. getting even halfway to the “magic number” at 5.53, 6.41, and 6.24 tonight. The trio typically hits behind excellent leadoff man Luis Arraez, who is slashing just .234/.333/.319 to start the season. After batting titles in both leagues, it seems safe to suggest that Arraez will find his form quickly atop this lineup, but he needs help to create DFS points beyond base hits. Bell has a home run but sits at 73 WRC+, Burger has two homers and a .174 ISO with a 94 WRC+, and Chisholm has been the team’s best player with two home runs, two steals, and a 109 WRC+. The group of four players is easy to afford in a friendly ballpark, but they are not projecting for upside and the Marlins have a 3.49-run implied total. Jesus Sanchez is a quality left-handed hitter with power but he has not found his form this season and continually misses time with injuries. Tim Anderson is looking more like his old self with a .283/.313/.304 triple-slash and two stolen bases but he has shown no power at the plate in his start to the season. Bryan De La Cruz has a good hit tool and a bit of power from the right side for $2,800/$4,000, and the lineup closes with Nick Gordon and Nick Fortes, who are afterthoughts in this spot.
  • Ryan Weathers does not look like an option against this Yankees squad in this ballpark. Weathers worked 4.0 innings in his first start, striking out five Pirates but allowing three earned runs on seven hits, in his second start he faced the Cardinals in St. Louis and struck out six hitters while walking three and allowing a solo home run and three hits, with three total runs but only one earned. Weathers is in the rotation because of injuries to better pitchers, he had a 16.7% strikeout rate with a 6.55 ERA and 5.56 xFIP over 57.2 innings and 12 starts last season and allowed a 4.67% home run rate, he seems highly targetable and the Yankees lead the slate across our tools today.
  • The top five hitters in the projected Yankees lineup are all over the “magic number” for home run potential tonight. Leadoff hitter Gleyber Torres is our overall home run pick of the day at 10.65. The second baseman is out to a substandard start after a terrific 2023 season but he hit 25 homers with a .180 ISO and 40.3% hard-hit rate last year and, at worst, he should consistently be a good tablesetter ahead of superstars Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, who lead the team at 15.87 and 18.37 in the home run model. Soto has had a spectacular start to his Yankees tenure, slashing .348/.456/.522 with two home runs, a stolen base, and a 191 WRC+ over 57 plate appearances. Judge took a moment to get engaged in the season, his .195 average is the lowest he has had this far into a season in his career but he has two homers with a .220 ISO, a .382 on-base, and has still created runs 41% better than average. Giancarlo Stanton has a 14.37 in the home run model and lefty first baseman Anthony Rizzo has a 10.36 mark against the same-handed starter. Stanton has been tearing the cover off the ball early, he has three home runs with a .300 ISO and 134 WRC+ over 41 plate appearances. Rizzo has a homer and a 109 WRC+, he dips a bit for power against fellow lefties historically but maintains very strong numbers across the board and Weathers should not give him problems at the plate. Anthony Volpe is slashing .375/.444/.600 with a .225 ISO, two homers, three stolen bases, and a 208 WRC+ over 46 plate appearances and costs just $3,300/$4,400 at shortstop to help round this stack into form at fair prices. Alex Verdugo has the Yankees dugout barking with two home runs and a 107 WRC+ over 48 plate appearances, Jose Trevino is the weaker of the Yankees catcher tandem at the plate but he will likely start against the lefty, Jon Berti is interesting with $2,200 triple-position eligibility on FanDuel and $3,200 with third base and shortstop on DraftKings. Berti won the National League stolen base crown to seasons ago and is a functional wraparound play back to Torres, Soto, and Judge atop the lineup.

Play: Yankees bats/stacks, Marcus Stroman at high prices

Baltimore Orioles (+103/4.46) @ Boston Red Sox (-111/4.63)

  • This game is under medium risk of bad weather
  • Red Sox righty Kutter Crawford has a fair projection from the mid-range on both sites, he costs $8,200/$7,900 tonight and could be one of the functional pitchers from that range despite a tough matchup against a growing Orioles lineup. Crawford threw 129.1 innings over 23 starts last season, posting a 25.6% strikeout rate with a 4.04 ERA and 4.32 xFIP. The righty hurler has made two starts so far this season, he has a 0.84 ERA with a 3.39 xFIP and a 28.6% strikeout rate with Boston facing light-hitting high-strikeout teams to start the year. Crawford will be more challenged by a Baltimore lineup that adds another top prospect tonight. The Orioles who have been in the lineup have a collective strikeout rate of just 19.1% this season and they have created runs effectively. Crawford is on the board for a general lack of better options.
  • Gunnar HendersonAdley RutschmanRyan Mountcastle, and, now, Jackson Holliday make up a fantastic core of young players for the Orioles, with no offense intended to Colton Cowser or Jordan Westburg, who are both talented young players who ranked highly as prospects as well. Henderson leads off from the left side, the shortstop has a 117 WRC+ with two home runs and three steals early in the season. Rutschman is one of baseball’s best catchers, he is slashing .316/.386/.368 with a 128 WRC+ over 44 chances at the plate. Anthony Santander has two home runs with a .190 ISO but a 77 WRC+ this year, he hit 28 homers with a .218 ISO and is a strong switch-hitting power bat for $3,400/$4,600. Ryan O’Hearn is in the projected lineup but the Orioles have options galore. O’Hearn hits from the left side, he is off to a strong start after a breakout 2023 campaign, slashing .333/.417/.618 with a .286 ISO and 201 WRC+ after a mere 24 plate appearances. Mountcastle has a home run and a 134 WRC+ with a .205 ISO, the first baseman is a good source of right-handed pop at the plate. Cedric Mullins has two homers and two stolen bases but has not gotten on base or hit the ball effectively otherwise to this point. Cowser is slashing .467/.438/.733 with a 232 WRC+ over 16 plate appearances after mashing through Spring Training, and Holliday is projected to hit ninth in his debut, the premium rookie is a $2,000 shortstop on DraftKings, creating a positional conflict with Henderson, but that is better than FanDuel not having him on the slate at all.
  • Lefty Cole Irvin is a popular value pick today, with the Red Sox scuffling somewhat against left-handed pitching to start the season. Irvin is not carrying a strong projection for $6,600/$6,800, but no options in his price tier look any better. The southpaw had a 20.2% strikeout rate with a 4.42 ERA and 4.47 xFIP over 77.1 innings and 12 starts last season, allowing a 3.27% home run rate on a 10.8% barrel rate that could play into Boston’s power. Irvin is making his second start of the year, he faced Kansas City on April 2nd, working 5.0 innings and allowing four earned runs on seven hits while striking out three and walking two. We do not have much faith in the Irvin value play and would prefer to draw Red Sox stacks against him at low/medium ownership.
  • Leadoff hitter Jarren Duran is slashing .319/.373/.383 with a 120 WRC+ a homer, and six stolen bases early in the season. In 17 plate appearances against lefties this season he is slashing .400/.471/.400 with a 163 WRC+ and he was effective with a .289/.327/.422 line against lefties last year. Duran is followed in the projected batting order by righty Pablo Reyes, who slots into three positions on FanDuel for just $2,400 to help average down the cost of a Red Sox stack. Reyes is a $2,500 second baseman or shortstop on DraftKings with the same salary impact, he is off to a weak start to his season at just 18 WRC+ over 17 plate appearances but that sample is entirely meaningless. Reyes slashed .287/.339/.377 with two home runs and seven steals in 185 opportunities last year. Rafael Devers has two home runs and a .222 ISO but is off to a bad overall start over 42 opportunities. Devers is slashing .273/.333/.364 in the 12 chances he has had against same-handed pitching this season, last year he hit nine of his 33 home runs against lefties while slashing .273/.335/.488 with a .215 ISO and 119 WRC+ against them, so he is fine in this matchup. Right-handed masher Tyler O’Neill has been the best hitter in baseball over the first two weeks. O’Neill has a .344/.488/.906 triple-slash with six home runs and a stolen base while creating runs 176% better than average, he simply needs to stay healthy and a gigantic season could be in order. Ceddane Rafaela climbs into the fifth spot in the projected batting order. The right-handed hitter is slashing .212/.263/.364 with a 68 WRC+ in early action. Lefty Triston Casas is one of the team’s major sources of power, he has one home run in 47 plate appearances so far this year but hit 24 with a .226 ISO in a breakout 2023 season. Casas has done well in his 11 plate appearances against same-handed pitching so far this year, he hit four of his home runs while slashing .214/.361/.456 with a .241 ISO and 121 WRC+ in 97 chances against southpaws last season. Connor WongRomy Gonzalez, and David Hamilton round out a weaker bottom third for Boston, the quality is from 1-6 and the stack could be somewhat under-owned against a weak pitcher tonight.

Play: Red Sox bats/stacks, Orioles bats/stacks, some shares of mid-range Crawford or bargain-bin Irvin are just OK. 

New York Mets (+143/4.28) @ Atlanta Braves (-156/5.33)

  • This game is under severe threat from weather, it seems somewhat unlikely to play tonight
  • Allan Winans is the scheduled starter for Atlanta, he worked six starts and 32.1 innings in 2023, pitching to a 24.1% strikeout rate with a 5.29 ERA and 3.97 xFIP and allowing a 3.55% home run rate on a moderate amount of premium contact. Winans does not project strongly in this spot but he is a $5,500 value option on the FanDuel slate, he seems mispriced at $7,700 on the DraftKings slate.
  • The Mets are drawing fairly strong projections once again, and slugger Pete Alonso is above the magic number for home run potential at 12.37. Alonso was the standout Mets hitter last night in a disappointing overall team performance as an interesting value play but the Mets are right back on the board if this game takes place. Brandon Nimmo costs just $3,100/$4,500, too cheap for his on-base skills and medium power atop the lineup. Starling Marte climbed back to the second spot in the lineup last night, he is slashing .256/.319/.349 with a 92 WRC+ but has a homer and two steals early in the season. Francisco Lindor has been bad at the plate over 53 plate appearances at .089/.208/.178 with a 21 WRC+ and one home run. Lindor will be better over the next 53 plate appearances and beyond, get in early at cheap pricing. Alonso has three homers on the season and more than anyone in baseball since his debut several years ago, he is cheap at $3,000/$5,100. Francisco Alvarez has a 9.73 in the home run model he has created runs 20% better than average and is a cheap catcher bat where the position is needed. Alvarez and Alonso can occupy first base and the utility spot on the FanDuel slate when stacking Mets. Brett Baty has had a good start to 2024 with a 120 WRC+ and a .325/.372/.400 triple-slash. Tyrone Taylor has power and decent speed when he is in the lineup, he is a better option than Jeff McNeil or Harrison Bader late in the batting order.
  • The Braves are facing lefty Jose Quintana who costs $6,900/$6,600 in a brutal spot. Quintana struck out just 18.8% last season over 75.2 innings, the veteran southpaw had a 20.2% strikeout rate over 165.2 innings in a stronger 2022 season but he is not a good choice against Atlanta tonight even for the value.
  • The Braves are going to be at or near the top of every tool all season, the only issues with stacking the team are popularity and price on any given slate and the team typically plays from 1-9. Ronald Acuna Jr. has four stolen bases and a 102 WRC+ but has not hit for power over his first 47 chances this year, he will be fine. Ozzie Albies has two home runs, Austin Riley matches that total while Matt Olson has three, but the team leader to this point in the season is underrated Marcell Ozuna who has already blasted five long balls and had 40 last season. Ozuna costs $3,800/$4,900 tonight, his price is moving up on the DraftKings slate but he remains affordable among the pricey Braves bats. Any of the top five in any combination are a terrific stack tonight, Acuna, Riley, and Olson are all above the 10.0 threshold for home run potential with Albies at 8.78 and Ozuna at 9.05. Adam Duvall is a righty with thunder in his bat, he has not homered in his 15 chances this season but he can pound this weak lefty and he hit 21 dingers in just 353 chances last year. Michael Harris II is a multi-category star at cheap pricing, Orlando Arcia has under-appreciated quality at shortstop and is out to a great start, and Chadwick Tromp is projected to take the start at catcher. Tromp is not unplayable at $2,000/$2,500 but he does not have much statistical backing at the bottom of the lineup.

Play: Braves bats/stacks, Mets bats/stacks

Houston Astros (-116/4.94) @ Kansas City Royals (+107/4.66)

  • Righty Seth Lugo is another name in the mid-range but he is facing a tough Astros lineup that is drawing a 4.94-run implied team total tonight. Houston is a challenge for any hurler, they are very difficult to strike out from one through five in the batting order and everyone hits for power. Lugo has been somewhat successful over two starts, posting a 0.71 ERA but a 3.81 xFIP and just a 14.3% strikeout rate but not allowing a home run or even a positive launch angle (-0.3 degrees average) to start the year. Lugo struck out 23.2% with a 3.57 ERA and 3.76 xFIP over 146.1 innings in 26 starts last year, it would not be wholly unbelievable to see him succeed tonight but the path is thin for $8,400 on both sites.
  • Houston is another team that is playable on almost any slate. The top five hitters in the projected lineup are elite with an average current-year strikeout rate of just 16.2% which is identical to last year’s rate in the full season for the same group of hitters. Jose Altuve costs just $3,700/$5,300 at second base, he should be more expensive on both sites. Altuve has three home runs and a 195 WRC+ over 54 chances this season. Yordan Alvarez has four homers and a .306 ISO and Kyle Tucker has hit two homers and has created runs 36% better than average in 55 opportunities. Alex Bregman is dragging down the collective production to this point, his 77 WRC+ over 50 plate appearances is the outlier but he is a strong candidate for a turnaround with his ability to aggressively put balls in play and draw walks. Yainer Diaz has a 9.06 in today’s home run model, both Alvarez (13.93) and Tucker (10.47) are over the “magic number” and Altuve is at 9.06, this team has power. Diaz is an excellent option at catcher for $4,300 on DraftKings and he is still discounted at $2,800 on FanDuel. Chas McCormick is slashing just .211/.333/.263 with an 87 WRC+ but he is a reliably good option for premium contact, mid-range power, and speed for a fair price. Jose Abreu and Jake Meyers are lower-end options late in the lineup while Jeremy Pena is off to a good start with two homers, two steals, and a 150 WRC+. Meyers is cheap with two homers and a 139 WRC+ over 23 opportunities in the ninth spot.
  • Rookie Spencer Arrighetti makes his debut for Houston tonight. The righty does not appear on either site. Over 64.0 innings and 13 starts in AAA as a 23-year-old last year, the starter had a 4.64 ERA with a 5.96 xFIP and struck out just 23.1% of hitters while walking 13.4%. Arrighetti was better in AA where he had a 31.2% strikeout rate with a 4.15 ERA and 4.21 xFIP over 60.2 innings and eight starts, but the run numbers are not inspiring despite his reasonable prospect rankings.
  • Kanas City has been frisky early in the season, among the team’s target players for stacking only Vinnie Pasquantino is not off to a strong start. The “Pasquatch” is slashing just .108/.214/.108 with a -2 WRC+ over 42 chances but has struck out just 11.9% of the time while walking at a matching rate. Pasquantino is very discerning at the plate, he struck out at the same 11.9% rate last season over 260 chances while hitting nine home runs with a .190 ISO, he has believable potential going forward. Maikel Garcia has been good in the leadoff role with a 101 WRC+ but he needs to get on base more frequently, his .245 on-base percentage has been the weak point, the infielder has three home runs and a stolen base to start the year and he costs $3,100/$4,700 tonight. Bobby Witt Jr. has a 197 WRC+ with two homers, two steals, and a terrific triple-slash over 49 chances, Salvador Perez has hit two homers and has created runs 45% better than average and hits ahead of two breakout candidates off to strong starts. MJ Melendez has three home runs and a stolen base with a monster .394 ISO and 219 WRC+ over 38 plate appearances, he has maintained excellent premium contact the past two seasons and was one of our favored hitters to post a strong campaign that surprises many this year. Nelson Velazquez blasted an impressive 17 homers in just 179 chances last season, he has two in 34 plate appearances early this year with a .290 ISO and 183 WRC+. Melendez costs $3,100/$3,600 and Velazquez is cheap at $2,800/$3,700 against the rookie. Adam FrazierHunter Renfroe, and Kyle Isbel are a weaker bottom-third but Renfroe will still hit big right-handed home runs from time to time this year.

Play: Astros bats/stacks, Royals bats/stacks for value

Oakland Athletics (+157/3.94) @ Texas Rangers (-172/5.17)

  • Lefty Cody Bradford has a 22.7% strikeout rate with a 2.13 ERA and 4.20 xFIP after two starts and 12.2 innings. Bradford worked 5.0 innings in his first start, striking out six of 18 Cubs hitters while allowing a home run and two earned runs on three hits. The southpaw faced the Astros in his second outing, striking out four of 26 while allowing just one earned run on two hits over 7.2 surprising innings. Bradford has pitched well to start the year but we did not see much of this version of the starter over his 56.0 innings and eight starts last year. The southpaw had a 21.8% strikeout rate with a 5.30 ERA and 4.43 xFIP while allowing a 4.70% home run rate with 11.8% barrels, a 43.5% hard-hit rate, and 90.9 mph of exit velocity on average. Bradford benefits from a strong matchup against an irritating Athletics squad that has found ways to spoil good pitching spots recently. We continue to believe in targeting this team with opposing pitching and Bradford will be a popular selection at $8,600/$9,000 tonight, he projects to a good-not-great mark in our model.
  • Zack Gelof is Oakland’s best player, he is off to a good start with a homer and two stolen bases and has created runs 28% better than average. Gelof is affordable for his talent at $3,300/$4,200. JD Davis hits baseballs very hard, with mixed results, he is particularly adept at mashing against left-handed pitching and both of his home runs this season came against a (the same) lefty. Davis has a 131 WRC+ with a .216 ISO over 41 chances at the plate. Tyler Nevin slots in third in the projected lineup, he has made 10 plate appearances thi year and was bad over 111 last season. Shea Langeliers had a massive three-homer Tuesday, giving him four for the season. Langeliers is a good source of premium contact but the quality comes and goes with his ability to put the ball on the other side of the fence, he does not hit for average or create runs effectively when not hitting home runs. Abraham Toro has a homer but is sitting at 95 WRC+, JJ Bleday has a homer and a 122 WRC+ but hits left-handed, Darrel HernaizLawrence Butler, and Nick Allen are very cheap to round off the lineup.
  • Righty Ross Stripling does not project for a strong start against a killer Rangers lineup. Stripling costs $7,100/$6,000 and has an 18% strikeout rate with a 3.75 ERA and 3.61 xFIP over two starts. The righty worked 89.0 innings and made 11 starts last year, pitching to a 5.36 ERA with a 3.98 xFIP and a limited 18.4% strikeout rate, he is a target for bats.
  • Marcus Semien has a 10.10 in the home run model and fills second base with excellence for $3,700/$5,000, he is too cheap on both sites but particularly so on DraftKings. Corey Seager has a 167 WRC+ to start the season and an 11.86 in the home run model, he costs $3,700/$6,000 and is too cheap on FanDuel. Wyatt Langford has a .261/.314/.326 triple-slash after a brief stumble out of the gates, his first home run is in the wind at 9.08 in the home run model. Adolis Garcia has blasted four long balls already this year and leads the team with a .289 ISO, his 10.33 is targetable in tonight’s home run model making the Texas top-end stack very appealing for power potential. Evan Carter has not started the season on the right foot but the team has faith and his .306/.413/.645 triple-slash with five homers in 75 chances last season buys him time. Josh H. SmithJared WalshJonah Heim, and Leody Taveras round out the bottom of the lineup with quality. Smith is off to a good start as a fill-in but has not been good over extended samples, he has moderate power at the plate. Walsh has lefty power and Heim provides catcher pop from either side of the plate. Switch-hitting Taveras brings a mix of mid-range power and speed and is an effective wraparound play.

Play: Rangers bats/stacks, Cody Bradford as a mid-level option

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